AI Summary
This video explains how a newly passed regulatory change—the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (ESLR)—could unlock massive bank liquidity and fuel Bitcoin to $200,000. It compares pre-2008 private bank credit creation with post-2008 Fed-dominated liquidity, and ties the rule change to Trump's economic agenda, potential Fed leadership, and a 2026 economic boom that could trigger a crypto bull market.
Chapters
The Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (ESLR) rule passed on November 25th and goes into effect on January 1st, 2026, removing post-2008 constraints on banks.
Before 2008, banks—not the Fed—created most liquidity through lending, which itself is a form of money creation.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing to deregulate private markets and shift credit creation away from the Fed back to banks.
The old supplementary leverage ratio treated all assets equally, forcing banks to hold the same reserves for risky loans and safe Treasuries, which disincentivized Treasury purchases.
The updated ESLR differentiates between risky loans and Treasuries, making it more attractive for banks to buy US debt and easing pressure on 10-year and 30-year yields.
Lower Treasury yields should reduce mortgage rates, boosting housing, credit creation, and overall economic activity.
Crypto typically receives liquidity after stocks and other risk assets, so a credit boom could eventually ignite a crypto bull market.
Trump wants rates at 1% and may install ultra-dovish Kevin Hassett as Fed chair, aligning monetary policy with his 2026 midterm goals.
The ESLR change, paired with Trump's push for cheap money and bank deregulation, sets the stage for a 2026 credit boom that could finally trigger the anticipated crypto bull market. The outcome depends on whether Trump and Bessent can fully execute their plans.
Mentioned in this Video
Study Flashcards (8)
What is the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (ESLR)?
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What is the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (ESLR)?
A post-2008 regulation that constrained bank leverage; the recent change differentiates between risky loans and Treasuries, making it cheaper for banks to hold US debt.
00:15
When did the ESLR rule pass and when does it take effect?
easy
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When did the ESLR rule pass and when does it take effect?
It passed on November 25th and goes into effect on January 1st, 2026.
00:15
Before 2008, who was the primary creator of liquidity in the economy?
easy
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Before 2008, who was the primary creator of liquidity in the economy?
Banks, through lending, which is a form of money creation.
00:27
Who is Scott Bessent?
easy
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Who is Scott Bessent?
Trump-appointed Secretary of the Treasury who wants to deregulate private markets and shift credit creation back to banks.
02:52
What is the 'parking lot' analogy used to explain bank leverage?
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What is the 'parking lot' analogy used to explain bank leverage?
Bank assets are like cars in a parking lot, and the leverage ratio dictates how much cash reserve each asset requires; the old rule required equal space for all assets.
03:18
How does the new ESLR rule affect banks' incentive to buy Treasuries?
medium
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How does the new ESLR rule affect banks' incentive to buy Treasuries?
It reduces the reserve requirement for Treasuries relative to risky loans, encouraging banks to buy more government debt.
04:52
What is a second-order effect of banks buying more Treasuries?
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What is a second-order effect of banks buying more Treasuries?
Lower 10-year and 30-year yields, which should lower mortgage rates and kickstart housing and economic activity.
05:58
Who is Kevin Hassett and what is his economic stance?
medium
Click to reveal answer
Who is Kevin Hassett and what is his economic stance?
A likely Trump pick for Fed chair, described as ultra-dovish and the intellectual architect of 'Trumpanomics,' favoring cheap money and aggressive rate cuts.
10:53
💡 Key Takeaways
ESLR Rule Passed
A specific, dated regulatory change that most market watchers missed.
00:15Bank-Led Liquidity Pre-2008
Challenges the common assumption that the Fed is the sole money printer—banks create money through lending.
00:27Treasury Buying Incentivized
Demonstrates how regulatory tweaks can reshape capital allocation incentives at the largest financial institutions.
04:52Hassett's Dovish Stance
Signals a potential major shift in Federal Reserve policy if Trump installs him.
10:53Full Transcript
[00:01] Fed to turn the money printer back on. They want QE to send Bitcoin to $200,000 and kick off alt season. But while everyone was waiting on the Fed, an passed while nobody was watching on November 25th. Regulators quietly gutted
[00:15] a post208 rule that was preventing banks from unleashing private liquidity into the system. The fuel for 200k Bitcoin is already on the way. Here's exactly what it means. On November 25th, the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio rule
[00:27] finally passed. This is something I've been talking about on my channel for probably the past year at this point. And I cannot stress enough how bullish it is that this rule was finally passed and will go into effect on January 1st,
[00:40] 2026. Before 2008, most of the liquidity creation actually didn't come from banks. It came from the the private markets. That means instead of everyone waiting on the Fed to turn on the money printer and do QE and all this kind of
[00:54] stuff, back in the day, it was actually the banks that were injecting all that liquidity into the economy via lending. As I've explained before, when a bank makes a loan, that is a form of money creation. That's essentially the same
[01:06] printer. And you don't really have to understand all that, but the important part to remember is that before 2008, the big dogs were the banks. Okay? They were the ones that were injecting all this liquidity into the markets, into
[01:19] the economy, etc. But obviously, they really screwed up big time in 2008. They governments came down. They're like, "Hey, you know what? This is jacked. You shouldn't be doing this. Like, you messed up a lot of people's lives." So,
[01:32] they put all these handcuffs and rules around banks to constrain them and constrain a lot of that lending behavior so that something like that could never process, the Fed sort of took up the mantle of being the one to inject all
[01:45] this liquidity into the economy via things like QE and all sorts of weird shenanigans. It's hard to imagine today, but there was a time back in the past where the markets didn't just assume that the government would bail everyone
[01:58] marginally difficult. It used to be that the private markets had to support always look to daddy government for handouts every time something went wrong. But that kind of changed post 2008 as the Fed took rates to zero. They
[02:13] bailed out a bunch of big banks. And then suddenly everyone realized, oh, enough, the government's just going to step in. The Fed's just going to step in and they're going to smooth things over. They're going to fix things. And so what
[02:26] what ended up happening is every time we had any sort of bad thing happen with and the government did. They'd lower various forms of stealth QE or or whatever. They'd issue cheaper and
[02:39] cheaper credit and they'd bail everyone out. And over time, the Fed and others have begun to like this system less and less. A lot of people have been looking back at the pre208 days and saying, you know, maybe it was a little bit better
[02:52] when the banks shouldered some of this risk and some of this weight versus all something that Scott Bessant, Trump appointed Secretary of the Treasury, has been talking about since he was appointed to office, that he wants to
[03:05] deregulate the private markets and push more of the credit creation, liquidity creation, etc. to the private markets. Basically, they want to push things back a lot of people have noticed is, hey,
[03:18] maybe we overreacted a little bit during 2008 and put too many restraints and too much handcuffs on these banks to where that system has been basically stifled that's where the ESLR comes in, the the recent rule change that was made. And
[03:32] like a big parking lot and all the assets that they hold on their balance sheet is like cars parked in that parking lot. And remember, the way banks there. Uh, but the bank doesn't want that money to just be sitting idle. the
[03:45] model works is they take that money and they do stuff with it. Okay? And so they're loaning uh they're using it to back loans they're making or or they're holding those assets on their balance sheet. Uh but but obviously banks have
[04:00] stuff in the past and they've done some really stupid stuff. They've gone and taken your money and they've bought stupid stuff that's lost value and then what the government did is they said, "Hey, if you're going to go buy stuff
[04:13] with that money, um the cars in the parking lot, uh you have to hold a certain amount of cash like in reserve, uh to kind of back those things you're is it basically treated every asset as if it was the same thing. So if the bank
[04:26] made a hyper risky loan or if they invested in like super low yielding treasuries, those two those two took up the exact same amount of space on that a parking spot which basically incentivized the banks to not invest in
[04:40] you know low yielding treasuries and to put all that money into like high risky loans. The new ESLR rule changes these requirements and differentiates between risky loans and things like holding treasuries specifically differentiates
[04:52] treasuries. The whole point of the of the ESLR rule is that people recognize, hey, the only way this system works is if banks are buying a ton of treasuries. The government's going to keep issuing debt. Somebody needs to buy this debt.
[05:05] going to do that is we're going to loosen the handcuffs so that the banks can buy this debt risk, not risk-free, but but basically reduce the risk of holding this debt versus, you know, other things like risky loans. So So now
[05:19] this uh so now treasuries don't take as much space in the parking lot. They're park a bunch of them in all sorts of parking spaces. Uh because basically what they want to see is they want to see banks load up on treasuries. Now,
[05:32] where this gets unfathomably bullish is in the second and third order effects of what this means for like the entire global financial system. Uh cuz this has some pretty huge implications for the global plumbing of the of the financial
[05:45] first thing that's going to happen is of course banks are going to buy a lot more treasuries. that's going to mean there's a lot less pressure on the 10-year and 30-year rate. It's a lot easier to absorb all that US debt issuance. And
[05:58] so, you sort of smooth out the plumbing of the global financial system. This for the 10-year and the 30-year. Uh, specifically because you now know that buying up these treasuries, which should push down those yields. The more people
[06:12] goes. Also, you should probably just have, you know, a lot of other people say, "Hey, we've unlocked this marginal, uh, you know, massive new buyer in in to frontr run that and buy those up first." Treasuries have been pretty
[06:26] system being constrained. And this should kind of take some of the shake and uncertainty out of them, which again should have an impact on those yields. And why that's important is because those are the yields that mortgage rates
[06:38] are tied to. And so, the lower those yields go, um, the lower mortgage rates more people start buying houses. The more people start buying houses, the loans that are being taken out, the more money uh credit and and money creation
[06:54] that's happening. Um also, the more like home renovation that's happening. People at buying stuff at Home Depot. They're, you know, paying their real estate agent. And it just kind of really kicks the um it kickstarts the economy in a
[07:07] major impact on corporations because now they have cheaper long-term borrowing. That means more cash for capex, hiring, expansion, etc., which is also a really strong uh kickstart to the economy. And remember, a lot of what ties together
[07:23] alt season uh the crypto markets, year-over-year liquidity, all of this is kind of this real growth in the economy, this surge in the ISM, all this stuff kind of comes together and is part of what creates a crypto bull market.
[07:36] Crypto is at the tip of the spear, okay? it is kind of the last one that gets fed. Uh you know stocks, all this other stuff typically gets fed first before have to have a risk on period. And so you typically see a lot of these other
[07:49] things go into effect before crypto really heats up. Now in terms of the has been this 10 year 30-year rate. They just can't get it down. Okay. uh if this works and this is able to push it down that leaves more room for like deficits
[08:03] and easing and stimulus and all sorts of crazy stuff because now they've basically offloaded the US debt to the banking system and they're just like put pushing in the corner saying hey buy buy all our debt nobody else wants to buy it
[08:15] kind of how the rules are set up and all that basically just means more fiscal juice getting pushed into the economy I talked about earlier how you know pre208 most of the juice came from the banks post 2008 most of that came from the
[08:28] Fed. Now we're entering a period where Bessant is really trying to push that credit creation, liquidity creation back to the banks, back back to the private market. And it's not just um via the ESLR. There's actually quite a few
[08:40] pinning rules that push that remove a lot of these handcuffs and restraints and give the banks more room to breathe in terms of lending and kind of give them some of their pre208 juice back, okay? Some of that Wall Street wolf of
[08:52] that doesn't necessarily mean that the Fed's going to stop doing what they do. Okay, you there could be an outcome. It's possible that we see both uh the Fed expanding its balance sheet, which is their form of money printing. At the
[09:06] same time, we're loosening restraints on banks and they're, you know, doing loans printing. And so you're getting like stimulus from both ends and things go bananas. Basically, the thing that we are waiting on is we are we're switching
[09:19] cycle, but we have not had a credit boom. the the the plumbing has been too something to kickstart the economy, kickstart things going. Um I pointed economy where, you know, AI and all this kind of stuff drags up the the indexes,
[09:34] but under the surface, it's a mess. You know, people are really struggling. This change with the ESLR and the 10-year and 30-year rate going down, coupled with the pipe, these are the things that shift it, right? These are the things
[09:47] that kickstart the economy, like I said, and kickstart credit creation. We need more credit create. We need a credit boom. We need easy, cheap credit. We need businesses expanding, businesses hiring, all this capex buildout. Those
[10:00] that's why I've said, you know, like, yeah, price has been going up, but this been a bull market. Obviously, it's not been an all season. This has not been a a crypto bull market driven by like the
[10:12] typical fundamentals that drive it. This has been driven by all sorts of other things, which I cover in in past videos, um, including the ETF, etc. Uh, but the real juice is still ahead. And we know the real juice is still ahead because
[10:25] Trump and Bessant have to win the midterms. And they flipped into what I Trump is literally calling for them to drop rates to 1%. Okay? And you know what? He might just get his way because it's looking like Kevin Hasset is the
[10:41] the Trump favorite to be the next Fed chair. And if Trump names him before Pal's terms out, he might kind of be almost a shadow fed chair where like one. So then, you know, everyone's kind of like trying to appease him because
[10:53] he's the big dog and they know, you know, Pal's out of office. And uh as this post from Mario points out, Hasset isn't just another economist. He's Trump's guy through and through. Hasset has become the intellectual architect of
[11:05] what many call Trumpanomics. Cheap money, full employment, ignore inflation hawks, and cut rates hard. He has spent years publicly calling for aggressive rate cuts, often putting growth and jobs far ahead of inflation fears. In short,
[11:18] Hasset is ultra dovish and proudly so. I've pointed out in the past that, you make unilateral decisions for the Fed, but Trump is working really hard to stack this Fed board. Hasset definitely has uh he definitely has sway in power.
[11:32] I'm trying to point out is the table is being set and it's not being set for a funeral. it is being set for a celebration or a a boom, an economic just like resurgence in 2026 because that is how the Republicans that is the
[11:47] only path to victory. The single there's only one path they if they if we voted today on midterms, Republicans would get the floor wiped with them like Democrats would just crush it. Okay, so there's only one path to victory ahead and that
[12:01] is to make Americans feel rich. So Trump is going to pull out all the stops. He has been he's been playing this chess game for the last year probably lot of these really smart you know economic guys and now they are deploying
[12:14] that plan and it is ultra ultra bullish you're one of two paths okay you're either in the path of hey they're going off you know like he's not going to get enough control of the Fed uh these
[12:27] into place and it's just going to kind of be a nothing burger um or you're going to get his way he's going to pull this off and it's going be insane and I'm leaning towards that path. I think Trump's going to get what he wants. He's
[12:39] far more insane things in the past and he just kind of is one of those guys who seems to get things done the way he wants them done. And so that's that is if you're curious about seeing my entire portfolio or you want to see every time
[12:52] I buy and sell various tokens as well as different weekly video market updates, closed to new members, but you can sign up for the wait list in the description telling you to do anything with your money. I'm obviously not your financial
[13:06] own research. If the video was helpful, make sure to hit that like button. If and the little bell next to it to be notified each time I release a new video. Thanks for watching and I'll see you next