Video PWWXAORfCvI

[00:00] What's up everyone, humble farmer Tykee here. So today I'm going to go over how I'm personally farming the polymarket airdrop and various trading strategies that you can utilize to farm one of the biggest airdrops a person can offer in the next 6-12 months. So let's first just give the opportunity a hand and then I'll go through what I'm doing.

[00:13] So recently I've been making a lot more traditional market content on my channel under my alter ego, Oracle Tykee. So he's in the other room right now, betting on polymarket, so he's not here. But I personally think that polymarket is one of those things that if you have a smaller portfolio you should be farming.

[00:28] not because that there's a 100% chance there will be a token but if there is a token there should be outside of the terms on your capital and even like last year you know I barely did anything on hyperliquid but I started using the application when it first launched

[00:41] and then I got a $100,000 airdrop I wish I held for longer if I continued to hold I would have like a half a million dollar position right now but you know I sold for like $100,000 and then I kind of moved on but you know like my speculation around the Polymark airdrop

[00:55] was kind of, I guess, validated with this news that in the most recent round, there was this other warrant section, which typically means that they're signaling that they're going to be a token.

[01:08] And I know people that invested in this round, and they also think that there's going to be a token, even though nothing is confirmed. So when it comes to airdrop farming, in my experience, I just assume that there will be tokens for a tokenless project.

[01:20] but I'm not going to go out of my way to make minus-easy decisions to farm particular things. If there is a small chance of a near drop, I might as well use these platforms.

[01:33] And if you think prediction markets are going to grow from here, 10 to 100x in volume or open interest, etc., then I feel like it's a good skill to have to be familiar with all these prediction markets. So that's kind of the mindset I'm going in with.

[01:46] And I have various ways to find this thing. So first of all, let's think about how will they airdrop, if they do an airdrop. And of course, it's very simple. They will likely airdrop to early users with organic activity, so not loss trading.

[02:00] So if you're buying something at like $0.90, and then you just dump it immediately, and then you have millions of volume, chances are there's going to be a way to detect that type of activity. So I think they're going to reward organic activity, and that's what we should be going for.

[02:13] And I think there are three ways to do so. So one is discretionary trading, bonding, and the second is bonding versus arbitrage, and I'll go over each one by one. So discretionary trading is kind of like having a long, short thesis on an altcoin.

[02:27] So let's say there's a component market event, and the market's pricing at like a 40% of whatever's been happening, but you think it's worth 80 cents, or maybe you think it's a certainty, and then you're making a directional bet on the real probability of these outcomes.

[02:42] Of course, this is like the most organic way to find this thing, right? However, you know, you could lose money. I mean, but also, right, maybe part of my favorite was people that lose money. Who knows, right? I know hyper-liquid people, right?

[02:54] They lost a lot of money trading perps because most people lose money trading perps, but then they got like the 6, 7, 8 figure airdrop, and, you know, they don't really care what happened, right? Or they don't really care about the trades that they lost that on

[03:06] because the airdrop more than made up for it. And, you know, I've been talking about various trades I put on my channel. My biggest one so far, or my biggest realized P&L so far, was on the Mr. Beast market.

[03:19] And, of course, whenever you do enter trades, you have to ask yourself, like, what is your edge, right? Like, why do you think that the market odds are wrong? And, no, I typically have success betting on what I think, or what I call rigged markets.

[03:32] And in the case of Mr. Beast, I mean, this is only one of my wallets, but I made roughly $8,000 total. And, you know, the way I thought about it was, I mean, Mr. Beast is omega rich. He's in the business of making good content.

[03:45] So if he's going to do a $40 million stereo challenge, he's going to complete it. He has enough levers to pull to make sure that this thing will complete. But he also has an incentive to make sure that it's going to be down to the wire.

[04:00] Because from his perspective, like, oh, $10 left? Can I raise my money? And then he can spin off all sorts of other videos. So whenever the market was pricing in, or maybe the market was pricing in

[04:12] like a 60 to 80% chance for this event happening, I'm like, yeah, that's wrong. I think they're close to 100%. So these rigged markets are, when the outcome is already predetermined, but the market is pricing it as a price model rig,

[04:25] if that makes sense So then on that I also bet on lowered miles I made a longer form thesis on this market my 40K bet on that I also bet on Lord Miles I made a long thesis on this market my 40k bet on Pony Market and I used to be the second largest holder of Yes shares I

[04:39] think I'm now in the top 10, but this market has gone a lot of controversy because a lot of people think he's cheap, so the market is like, okay, can this guy completely 40k

[04:53] water fast in the desert. And my thesis was that, well, the second cheese, right? So he has complete control over the outcome of the event. So I think he's incentivized to complete the challenge, whether he treats or not. So I just like that on the outcome. So that's

[05:08] kind of, you know, like what I think of like these rigged markets. They don't happen all the time. So, you know, I don't take that many directional trades, honestly. But that's kind of like what I've been doing. So yeah, like Mr. Beast raising $40 million for a charity.

[05:21] That's not a challenge, right? He's going to do it. And LordMiles completing a 1% challenge. He's probably going to do it, even though I'm not 100% sure. So I might sell my shares at 1% to like 90 cents or something.

[05:33] But, you know, that's kind of the thesis I have. Another market I'm looking into, this might be a rigged market. So Kaisana is one of the biggest Twitch streamers. And right now he's doing this challenge where he's live streaming 24-7 for 30 days.

[05:47] And he's trying to get like a million Twitch subscribers. I personally think this market is probably great, right? I think he's, I mean, he can, like, you know, pay money to, like, gift sales and whatnot. And the market's selling pricing at, like, 70 to 80 cents.

[06:01] I don't have a personal position on this yet, but these are the markets I like to bet on because, I mean, will Kaisenart really do the challenge if he knows he can't pull it off? Probably not, right? He's also in the business of making good content and maybe, you know, this thing is down to the wire, right?

[06:16] He needs, like, 50,000 subs left. On, like, day 30, he's like, can he pull it off? And then, boop, right? He's probably going to make it happen. So let's fucking get on this. Let's start on this shit. So second strategy that I think is more, you know, if you're a humble farmer, right, this might be more in your lane.

[06:33] And it's called bonding. And bonding refers to the act of buying things that are trading at 99% or like 1%, waiting for it to go to 0% or 100%. So, for example, last week, or I forget what this was, but, you know, yeah, there was like a flood, right, that Trump was going to die, right?

[06:49] because, like, you know, his ankles were swollen and, like, his hand was, like, black or something. And, you know, there was, like, a market on whether he was going to resign that day, which I thought was, like, not happening because, I mean, I knew he was alive.

[07:02] So, you know, I mean, this is, like, not really profitable in a sense, but, you know, I bought 4,405 mil shares at 99.7 cents for, so basically I made, like, a $13 profit on this particular market.

[07:16] But, I mean, a $13 profit in, like, a few hours is, you know, it ain't much, but it's honest work, right? And I, you know, spread this across multiple wallets, and I made, like, $40. But, you know, this was, like, a way for me to build up volume.

[07:28] And, you know, I don't think it's, like, washing me because I just waited for it to go to 100%. And, you know, like, this is, like, one easy way, right? So, like, betting on markets where people are gambling, right? Like, why are people, like, buying the yes shares?

[07:42] Because they just want to gamble. and if people are gambling then the odds are in the right and you can just take the other side and bet on the very very likely outcome and the funny thing about uh is like you know in these

[07:54] coin market comment section you can kind of like just get entertainment um on your own so there's like this fake joe biden fake joe biden account that was buying yesterday's you know it's also good fun right um and then there's like a fake common account which i thought was great i mean

[08:08] these these comments are just ridiculous uh there are easier ways to get a 4% annual return that is That is true. But hey, I'm following the Polymarket Air Drop. The market that I personally have a position in right now is this one. So the Fed decision in September. I actually paid a really bad price on this. I paid like 98 something cents. So I mean, if you look at the CME Fed Watch Tool, they're basically pricing like a 90 to 95% chance that they're going to cut rates 25 basis points and like very little chance of cutting 50 bets.

[08:40] So I just bet on the no outcome, that they're not going to do anything. I personally think that the odds of no change is 0%, so I can just buy these things at $0.98 and in a few days I can make a 2-3% return.

[08:54] So it ain much but it honest work So I bet I think I bet like on this market so I stand to gain like you know or so Of course I mean who knows maybe I wrong and I just figure it out

[09:07] But hey, you know, at least I'll tell myself that I'm farming the point market or drop. So, you know, this isn't like those sexy trades, right? But kind of, I mean, I personally think of it as like picking a free man on the floor. Sometimes, you know, it's just like nice to make a 0.1% gain on decent size in a few hours.

[09:23] You know, those things do add up and compound. or even like a 1% to 2% gain over a week or two, in the case of the Fed market, right, in the next few days. Which, you know, if you annualize, I mean, you can't really annualize these things, but if you do annualize it, it can be a decent amount.

[09:39] So, yeah, it helps me build up a bunch of volume, and then you can do this with decent size. Yeah, let's bet on this. Let's bet on this. So, you know, if you want more yield farming, air-ground farming, prediction markets, strategies,

[09:51] or farming strategies, you should check out the Humble Farm Army. It's on my private Discord. A link will be in the description below, and I share all my trades in real time. So, the last thing is arbitrage trading. And, I mean, this is pretty self-explanatory.

[10:04] You know, being paid to make markets efficient across multiple prediction markets. And an example is, like, in sports. You know, these sports games happen every single day, right? So, let's say, you know, there's, like, some, yeah, baseball or something, right?

[10:16] There's one team, and then there's another team. Let's see, on Polly Market, you know, TNA, right? their odds of winning is at 55%, and then on another producer market, the odds of the other team winning is like 44%.

[10:28] So what you can do is you can just buy $100 of each, for example, and for, for a start, you can buy like $99 worth of, you know, these shares across both markets, and then you're

[10:40] basically guaranteed to make $100, right, or like a $1 profit. So it's not, yeah, like literally it ain't much, but it is honest work, and if there are multiple producer markets that you want to fund, this could be a good way, and also I think it's a fairly organic activity that is probably not going to be detected.

[10:56] And of course, if you're arbitraging, by definition, it is very, very profitable over time. So I'll put this link in the description below, but there's a site called polymarketanalytics.com, and you can kind of see various markets that have, or very existing markets that are live

[11:13] on, for example, Polymarket and Kalshi. So, for example, on Kalshi, the chances of Chelsea winning the permanent lead is at 8 cents. but on Polly Market, it's up 7 cents. So, I mean, obviously, it's a rate over a long time,

[11:26] and this is just an example, but, you know, you can technically buy, yes, on Couchy, and no, on Polly Market, and then make a profit, for example. Or, you know, you can make it to Punt. And, you know, Arsenal, right, 35.6.

[11:39] Yeah, so these things, you know, if you, yeah. I mean, the profit opportunities aren't that crazy, but, I mean, theoretically, right, it should, you know, make a bunch of money over time. So, you know, maybe it's not that exciting, but, you know, I mean, the goal is to find volume, right?

[11:55] It's not to make an insane amount of money. And whenever I do, you know, foreign-polling market, I'm just trying to get a bunch of volume without losing money, right? Because the majority of the EDD or the excessive value in these trades is in the future-polling market airdrop, right?

[12:10] Because, yeah, I mean, not only can I make decent money, right, maybe not too crazy on traditional markets, you know, like I put myself in a position to get lucky. You know, like even with HyperLiquid, I didn't really expect anything big when I first started using it in like March of 2003.

[12:25] But because I was an overuser, I just got rewarded handsomely with a really big, big fat airdrop. Hopefully this time I won't sell my airdrop too early. So, no. Yeah, like I said, don't do watch trading.

[12:37] It's probably going to be easily detected. So like volume alone is not enough. You kind of want to make, you know, like directional bets. I mean, all of these things are kind of directional, right? even like me betting on the Fed market, is directional,

[12:50] even though I think it's what I call bonding. And arbitrage is also like a directional trade. So there's various types of directional trades. So that's kind of what I'm doing on point market. And hopefully, you know, you can get started.

[13:03] I think it's never too late. The best time to get started is now, you know. And the second best time is like tomorrow, right? So just, you know, keep clicking buttons. And, you know, hopefully, you know, we're all going to cook.

[13:15] So I do want to talk about one other opportunity because obviously in crypto there's so many opportunities, there's so many projects that raise money. And there is a production market that I been talking about on my channel for the last couple of weeks that actually have a points program and season one points ends September 22nd So you know I think you know

[13:37] I'm not saying you should, like, you know, gamble a lot, right? Like, risk a lot of money. But this is, like, a very, very easy thing to form. And if you're watching this video, chances are, you know, you can make the cutoff, essentially.

[13:49] So if this does end up getting a lot more traction, then who knows, like, these points you form right now will be worth a lot in, let's say, six months or so. So it's a whole other list. It's just another traditional market that's kind of focused on short-term price action.

[14:02] It raised a bunch of money from, you know, like, reputable VCs, let's say, which doesn't mean much. You know, I have been making bets on one of the lists. I made a really profitable one that I saw on my video last week where I bet $100 on this e-TPTC market

[14:15] or a bullish e-TPTC bet, and I made a 54x, and I made $5,400 on this market. So, yeah, you can make money on these things. And the way to earn points is to generate at least $200 in trading volume.

[14:28] So that's literally all you need to do. Of course, you can choose the market that you've been on. And, you know, sometimes I do a little bit of directional stuff. And then, you know, I buy stuff that's trading at like 99% just so that I can get some points.

[14:42] And season one ends September 22nd, like I said, and then season two starts right after. I have no idea when the PGD is. But hopefully sometime this year. Yeah, I mean, hopefully this year. I have no idea. and I guess the one cool thing happening right now is like this thing like this

[14:58] challenge called hourly profit and you know I do have a team called the humble farm army right we are the humble farmers here and we are currently second in the week one leaderboard and how this works is you can look at the left side

[15:12] here where it's going to be a two week challenge and there's like this score where or actually like the market that you can only bet on is like these hourly markets So, you know, whether or not Bitcoin is there and so on will be above or below a certain price.

[15:27] And if you bet and you are right and you bet at least $10, you are eligible for points. But like I said, you have to bet at least $200 total within or before September 2nd to be eligible.

[15:39] And there are some prizes. So, you know, if you're the most profitable trader in week one, you get 3K. I'm not sure how likely that is, right, for anyone starting now to get this thing. But I guess, you know, maybe week two.

[15:53] which starts the 22nd or the 23rd, I believe. That could be good. And then, you know, there's a team bonus. So if you're in the first team bonus, so if you're in the team of Ignis, or whoever ends up being in first place,

[16:06] you get two X points. So you are more incentivized to join their team. And in second place is 1.5X. So, you know, there really is, like, no incentive to, like, join, like, a 69X, or whoever this guy is, right?

[16:18] I mean, I'm already number two, so if you want to support the channel, or if you want to just join the Humble Farmers, you can just join the team, just bet a little bit,

[16:30] and then you get some points. Pretty low stakes, I think. Who knows? Maybe this ends up being something that you're good at. Then you make a bunch of money, and then you get more points. So yeah, we're number two, so might as well join me.

[16:43] We're already at the top. You'll get extra points, so yeah, you should do that if you're interested. But you know, no pressure. You can join any other team, honestly. I just want you to be farming decent. And yeah, so September 22nd to 29th is season two, or week two, but also commercise is season two.

[17:01] So yeah, I think that's mostly going to be it for me. So I think the commercial market is very, very interesting. I think they're only going to grow in volume. Calci and party market are number one and number two in a particular order.

[17:16] It's a very, very intense competition between those two. you know, if Calci gains market share relatively well in the foreign market, the foreign market might be incentivized to do an airdrop. So all of that, you know, to summarize, I think

[17:30] if you have a smaller portfolio and you want like the next airdrop to farm, I think this is something that could be interesting. I think prediction markets are relatively under farmed by a lot of people. Of course, you know, you can't just bet like $10 and like

[17:43] a million dollar airdrop, right? You have to put in volume and you have to invest time into this. But I do think it's a good skill to have and I think it's something up anyone's alley, especially if you've been in crypto for a decent amount of time.

[17:57] That's it for me. Thank you guys for watching and I'll see you in the Polymarket trenches. Bye bye.