Iran Deal Breakdown: Seven-Day Plan — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:00] We are now getting more details on the seven-day phased Iranian deal. In this video, we're going to break down exactly what we know. The New York Times broke pieces of this.

[00:12] We're going to try to cover as much of this as possible by putting together everything that we know about this Iran situation. Because, look, I wasn't even planning on making another video today. I don't look like I'm ready for another video.

[00:24] But, you know what? We can work on this together. this disaster has been back and forth full of taco bologna for too long. And I get the frustration here. Like, when are we actually going to get a deal? You already know my opinion. My opinion is

[00:38] we're going to get a deal before midterm, and it's going to send the stock market to all-time new highs, and yields will come down. So far, the opposite is going on with yields. We just got 5.2 on the 10-year Treasury, and the 30-year Treasury just hit a 2004 high, which is insane.

[00:57] We literally went from a 2007 high to a 2004 high now. It's getting worse, in other words. So let's try to understand this. And so what I wanted to do is I wanted to put together a graphic of what's been happening over the last 30 days.

[01:09] So I've been working on this to kind of give everybody an idea of how this breaks down. So on August 25th, we heard that Vessel was going to institute Economic D-Day. And within a week of that, we heard the tanker-for-tanker strategy.

[01:23] That's around the same time that I made a video saying, things are about to get worse before they get better, so prepare for some volatility. And we heard nothing out of Tehran. And this is around the same time that we were hearing that the Trump administration was murmuring,

[01:39] ah, Americans will understand high gas prices, it's okay if we're still at war with Iran by the time midterms come around. which to me sounded like, well, A, bad, but B, kind of bluffing.

[01:51] Sort of like, ah, our blockade could go on forever. Don't worry, we're not worried about it at all. Anyway, then we get the escalation, which we expected was coming,

[02:03] and we've been covering the meeting up to it, coverage of it, and then, of course, the after effect. This is where, between September 5th and 9th, seven tankers were hit within one week. The U.S. sunk five Iranian tankers after missiles were fired at multiple different warships,

[02:19] and Iran ultimately ended up hitting ten ships, a base in Jordan, and oil on the Brent side, so the international crude side, topped $100. Now, Iran then, on September 7th, said that a deal between Tehran, so Iran,

[02:36] And Oman was just days away for coming together with some form of tolling the freight of Hormuz plan. Then we get Donald Trump and his own staff coming out saying,

[02:49] oh, you know, you know how we've kind of been warning about, you know, this war could end up going past January of 2029 and like a different president will end up handling it, kind of like what happened to the 1970s Iranian hostage crisis,

[03:04] where literally the day the new president is inaugurated, you get an end to the war. Well, what you have here is, you know what, the war is actually going to end right after midterms.

[03:16] To me, this was just signaling that Donald Trump was implying, hey guys, I don't need to solve the Iran war before the election. Don't you think the Iran war matters at all to the election and the outcome of what happens?

[03:30] Meanwhile, let's be real, they're shaking in their damn boots about the election. The worst thing for a president going into midterms is the economy. I'm sure you've heard the phrase, it's the economy's stupid.

[03:44] Gas prices at absolute record highs. A 10-year treasury, the highest we have seen since 2007, is insane. These are insane numbers. This is bad. It is a miracle the stock market is not lower.

[04:00] Now, again, I want to be clear because sometimes people see video titles and then they don't watch the video and they don't get it. So I try to be clear with my position. My position is taco is coming. We are going to go to all-time highs by the end of the year.

[04:14] Again, since we already hit one of my all-time high targets. I'm not even trying to sell you anything. I don't have anything against this video. I'm just being transparent. I'm laying the cards out there, right? And I think yields will come down.

[04:26] So anyway, going back to this. So, oh yeah, we don't care about the war, it's fine. So then what do we have? Then September 10th, that's my dad's birthday. Drones from Iraq hit the Saudi East-West Pipeline, that was 13 days ago.

[04:40] 4 million barrels per day go from, or move through this pipeline and then out of the Red Sea. Brent goes all the way up to $109.

[04:52] Saudi Arabia does about 7 million barrels a day in total, so this East-West pipeline was pretty dang important. September 12th, all of a sudden, days away from an Iranian-Omanian deal,

[05:04] or Omani deal, turns into, it's coming soon, we swear. Then on September 13th, we get the Treasury Secretary saying, energy doesn't count on a deal. A deal with Iran is not a good bet right now.

[05:19] This is all posturing. Posturing that, ah, we're going to need more negotiations out of the other side. They each do this. They all do this. Then we get told on September 14th that it going to take three to five weeks to get the East Pipeline back up and running Mind you and that not even in the sheet this happened because the Houthis took the Mokaport And the Houthis are like

[05:42] Hey, yo, we now have control over the Bab al-Mandad Strait, which means we will fire upon every single Saudi Arabian ship that tries to go out of the Red Sea and over to China

[05:56] or to the international market to sell oil, which is quite interesting because the Houthis also said, by the way, we're not going to target anyone else's ships. The United States? Even Israel will want to send ships through this area.

[06:09] We won't target them. This is all about targeting the Saudis. And so the Saudis asked Donald Trump for help. And initially it seemed like the United States was open to helping, but then the United States decided,

[06:22] you know, we don't really want to open up another war. we're going to take a backseat on this one. You know what? You guys deal with it.

[06:34] That actually prompted the economists to write this article. When America walks away, and they show the oil fields on fire, and America packing its bags going, we're out of here, bro.

[06:47] You guys solve the Middle East. And it's basically what they say in the article. They say, the signs of America's looming retrenchment are unmistakable. Earlier this month, America declined to join its ally, Saudi Arabia, in striking the Houthis in Yemen,

[07:03] who were endangering shipping in the Red Sea. Instead, it helped talks behind the Saudis' backs to spare American vessels from the attack. That may seem like a detail, but when a superpower deals with an insurgent militia,

[07:20] everyone understands it wants to cut its commitments from the region. In other words, Donald Trump realizes that he got himself into a little bit of an oopsie-doopsies that is really bad PR for his approval rating and risks the entire state of the economy.

[07:37] Now, just so you can see this graphically, so when we talk about this, the Persian Gulf is right here. Think Persian Gulf, trapped. Persia, Iran, okay? Iran, stock, quagmire, okay?

[07:53] Persian Gulf, that's how I remember it. Persians, stuck. I think Persia also from like Age of Empires, big elephants, big. Doesn't fit through little things well.

[08:05] Stuck. Sorry, sometimes I have to bring it to like, people get mad at me for saying this, I have to bring it to like retard 101, and then it like sticks in my brain. And like, I'm not calling you that,

[08:17] I'm calling myself that, right? Just to be clear about that. I have to kind of, how am I going to remember all this? I mean, sometimes a little church-clothed at work. Anyway, there's a lot of talk about investing in oil infrastructure,

[08:30] like right here in this particular city. And the benefit of this is that the Saudis, the UAE and Oman, can now route oil through this port here,

[08:45] which would then bypass the Strait of Hormuz. See this little shark? I kind of look at this island as a little shark. Larak Island, and then you got Hormuz Island over here, see here's Larak. So the reason I call it the Little Shark

[08:58] is because the Iranians want ships to go through the Persian Gulf right past the mouth of the shark, so the shark can take a bite out of it, tax it,

[09:11] and then go out to sea. And then that way they have control over this, whereas the United States is working over here to smuggle everybody through the southern side, which is the Omani side.

[09:23] Okay, so that goes out to the Gulf of Oman. And then in the Indian Ocean, we have a little island called Diego Garcia, which is a pretty important island that we leased some space from, because look at that, beautiful pictures of bombers, jet aircraft,

[09:38] and see these hangars right here? Boy, that is pretty good resolution over here. But anyway, see these hangars? People think that's where the B-2 bombers get housed that ended up operating in Operation Midnight Hammer.

[09:51] So, somewhat interesting. So, it gives you a little bit of an array of the land over here. Here's Yemen. This is where the Houthi terrorists are. And the United States basically made a deal with these guys to not attack American ships as long as Americans don't help Saudi Arabia beat up on the Houthis.

[10:08] Because here's the Bab al-Mandat Strait right here. It's a pretty narrow region. And the area of Mocha, which is right here, is where all the roads lead to Mocha, which is pretty dang close to, because you've got a lot of mountainous terrain over here,

[10:22] which is pretty dang close to the Strait, which shuts down the Red Sea. Okay? So, this gives you a little bit of a lay of the land about how America essentially retreating because we got ourselves into so much of a quagmire.

[10:36] We've also become a really big oil exporter today when we used to be an oil importer. Tracking was part of that benefit or what led to that, part of. now this also means that China actually benefits from the straight and full moves

[10:51] flowing really well in the Middle East and stability in the Middle East the less terrorism there is in the Middle East the lower oil prices and so the United States is kind of like trying to clean the area up to help China almost

[11:03] which is kind of crazy so this is where I think Donald Trump realizes man this is a lot of work just to stop them from having nuclear weapons which is fine but maybe we can actually negotiate a deal sort of like Obama negotiated a deal called the JCPOA where we actually had UN weapons inspectors actually allowing some

[11:20] form of a peaceful enrichment program, but we are going to inventory every little frickin' piece of uranium you produce so that way we know where the highly enriched uranium is

[11:32] and goes and where it travels and we check in on it all the time. Can you have a secret facility going on? Of course, but it would also be in violation of the deal, and it gets found out by the CIA and other assets or whatever.

[11:44] So we know what's going on. It's just nice to have inspectors on the inside. We lost that, obviously. Now we'll probably go back to that. Why? Because, well, Iran is proposing a seven-day end to the war,

[11:56] and this would mirror some of the commitments in the Memorandum of Understanding where Hormuz will open up at the end of the seventh day. Aragachi is one of the most hawkish members of the Iranian regime

[12:12] he's not as hawkish as all of the IRGC folks or I should say some of the IRGC folks who love launching MLRS mines into the Strait of Hormuz or love rocketing more ships remember this is a very fragmented style of leadership

[12:26] there's no real chain of command you have leadership in various spider web different areas the same with the terror cells They're splinter cells. That's how they run this. That makes it so hard to take down a country like this,

[12:40] because you take out the leaders, it doesn't matter. The splinter cells operate independently. And that's why it's so hard to actually get a deal to stick. That said, in this draft of the deal that the Iranians have now sent to the United States,

[12:54] the United States would release Iran's frozen assets, about $12 billion, raise sanctions on oil, and lift the Iranian blockade. Well, they need to reload, right? They need supplies, they need refined goods to come in

[13:07] so they can reload and make some more weapons. That's a jaded way to look at it, how durable this next deal is. Scott Benson says he guarantees it's going to stick, but I'm certainly not going to hold my breath.

[13:19] But let's go back to the timing here for a moment. So, we were over here, where, remember we were told that it would take three to five weeks to get the East-West Pipeline back up? Yeah, that would put us at, let's see, three weeks,

[13:32] would put us somewhere around the first week of October. The pipeline's already up and running again. It's going to be up and running in the vast majority of its capacity by the end of the week. So, apparently this whole three or five week thing was just propaganda about,

[13:45] oh, they did so much damage, they really set us back just sitting. Anyway, on September 16th, a proposal approved by the Supreme Leader was sent to Washington via Qatar.

[13:58] Then we had seven conditions to talk. This was originally branded as we just want three things in public, and then we've got these seven total things, which is a cut down from the 14 that we've seen.

[14:12] So the original memorandum of understanding was 14 conditions, and it didn't loop in Lebanon, which is one of the problems. You have Israel who's at the United Nations now, and looping in Lebanon is really important, so the fact that this deal is potentially happening at the United Nations is useful

[14:26] because Bibi is there. And see, one of the conditions here is that during the seven days, all hostilities have to end, including in Lebanon. So if we are about one year into the ceasefire

[14:38] between Israel and Lebanon, which isn't really who you need to sign a ceasefire with anyway because it's Hezbollah Paris that you have a problem with, and, you know, between Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, where there's also supposedly a ceasefire,

[14:51] somehow Israel has killed another 1,100 people. Now, obviously, some Israelis have died as well. Israel is arguing, dude, we still have nothing up to do of splinter cell terror groups.

[15:04] So, I'm not here to take a stance on who's right or who's wrong. I'm just saying, that's a tough condition, unless Israel is on board. And Israel says, like, there's no deal.

[15:17] It's all fake news. There's no deal. Okay, alright, that's not good. but the deal framework that we are seeing from Iran and from the United States so far

[15:30] is delaying talks of some of the hardest things and we're seeing a softening. I think it's because both sides realize, dang, man, you know, we thought we could keep this blockade going forever on the U.S. side

[15:43] but, dude, our bond market and oil markets are just getting screwed. Like, we are getting absolutely destroyed. then on the other side, I think the Iranians are like we could survive a blockade and then they realize, crap, it's not just a naval blockade

[15:55] it's all the trucks that can't come into or out of Iran and now the planes that can't come into or out of Iran both sides are like, this sucks

[16:07] can your treasury skyrocket? Iran? No, it stops this sucks both sides are seriously going to benefit off of a deal So I, this is why I'm so bullish that a deal is going to happen.

[16:21] Then we had all 27 Iranian airlines grounded. We've talked about this. Donald Trump says, we're going to make a deal. Or we're going to annihilate them. You know, it's going to be, oh, we're going to make a deal after midterms. Then it turns into, oh, we talked to them for three hours.

[16:35] And then the next day, oh, we talked to them for two hours. We're having great talks. You know, we could actually make a deal within the next few days. and then the Iranians go you know how about how about we open up Hormuz with this seven day news oh just kidding That fake news SARS denies it You know because people hear these rumors Reuters gets the rumors and stuff about the deals that are being negotiated

[16:57] And then publicly, you know, people back at the offices are like, I haven't heard anything about this. That sounds like fake news. Meanwhile, it's actually what's being negotiated. That's often how the sort of fake news works. It's actually not fake.

[17:10] It's just leaked, and it shouldn't have gotten out yet. But anyway, and that doesn't mean believe all the mainstream media, obviously. You're already skeptical of everything. But a pipeline, September 22nd, the Saudis restart East-West pipeline already.

[17:23] Meaningful flows targeted by Saturday. Five weeks became 12 days. Then all of a sudden we have Besson on Fox saying there are three ways to defend.

[17:35] The regime crumbles. That hasn't worked out so far. There's an uprising. That hasn't worked out so far. or there's a deal that Iran sticks to and Besson does say that they are going to they guarantee that Iran is going to stick to this deal.

[17:48] I don't know how they do that. I think they have to say face because there have been so many U-turns. But anyway, then the president after Donald Trump calls Iran the bully of the Middle East the president apparently of Iran

[18:00] rewrites his speech and it's like we're the ones being bullied. We're the ones who just have families killed at a wedding and 123 school children killed we are the ones who are actually the victims of terrorism.

[18:15] And then it's just like, wait, who is David and who is Delia here? You know? It's kind of crazy. They're really good at trying to sort of invoke that empathy as being the smaller dog.

[18:27] Of course, it doesn't help when you chant Death to America, but, you know, that's a different topic. It's actually the same topic. But you know what I mean. Anyway, then, you know, Beth is back on Fox regarding the adherence to guarantees.

[18:39] This was posted today, so this is really the faint interview right here. Then we have Arigachi going on record, even though the media was denying it, and Israel denied it, but Arigachi goes on record saying, yeah, no, we offered a seven-day plan,

[18:53] where we're going to do, give us our money, remove the sanctions, remove the blockade, waive oil sanctions, and then in seven days, we'll open up the Strait of Hormuz, and then we can talk about nuclear.

[19:05] And we'll talk about Pickaxe Mountain. That's why Donald Trump hasn't bought Pickaxe Mountain yet. because CSIS tells us that the odds of enrichment activity there right now are low, that it appears like construction activity is happening,

[19:18] but there's no urgency regarding enrichment activity. Donald Trump knows this, so he uses it as leverage. Okay, you guys want to use pickaxe numb? Let our inspectors in. Wouldn't it be a lot better to negotiate inspectors going into pickaxe numb

[19:31] when we have very little information about what's inside a pickaxe numb? Of course! So when you start putting all the context together, To me, all of this is making more sense that a deal is imminent.

[19:43] No rush into a deal, says Rubio. It's, you know, we require patience. This is what he said over the last 24 hours. Like, all right, the deal is going to take time. It's going to take some time. That's fine. Then you've got, or got you over here.

[19:56] You know, it'd actually be better for us to strike a deal before midterm. Yeah, because they're suffering too, dude. Everybody's suffering. So this gives us an idea of kind of like what's going on here. And I think this is very, very useful because when we put all of this together and we know what's happening in Iran, we know that both sides have serious gains from making a deal.

[20:23] When both sides seriously stand for making a deal, I think there's almost no question how we don't get a deal. So, again, those are facts. Now my opinion. I'm going to be really clear about this.

[20:37] I think we get a deal. Not only do I think we get a deal, I think this Iran situation is going to sort of fade into the distance. It's kind of going to be like the Gaza deal, where it's like, yeah, yeah, yeah, we're talking nuclear,

[20:51] but nuclear talks go on for the next two years, and the next president ends up taking over. Do we get any inspections in that time? I don't know. Am I worried about Iran getting to a bomb during that time? F-yes, I am. so I guess we just have to have faith

[21:07] that the CIA is going to monitor it and that CSIS is going to monitor it which is not a government organization and when we put all that together okay maybe the next president

[21:21] will truly end the war but you know with a final negotiation but in the meantime oil can come down yields in the bond market can come down

[21:33] and a lot of the pain that we're feeling in markets right now, broadly and people who are feeling this with inflation whether it's in Iran or in the United States a lot of that can begin subsiding

[21:45] then it actually takes pressure off of the Federal Reserve to price in five freaking rate hikes, which is crazy this is the 10 year treasury, this is in the three months in a three month chart here

[21:57] this is like a mean stock, this is insane are tweeting about this on app. They call me there every month. Anyway, I'm going to sleep now. See you later, bye. If you liked that video, check this one out. I think you're going to love it.

[22:09] Why not advertise these things in total to you? I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. Kevin, pass that there. Find nice landlady. And you too,

[22:21] let's meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.