Why Token Price Doesn't Matter
45sChallenges common investor focus on token price, revealing a counterintuitive market truth that sparks curiosity.
▶ Play ClipThe video explains how to estimate potential earnings from the X Empire token airdrop by focusing on market capitalization rather than token price. The creator uses data from similar projects like Not Coin and Hamster Kombat to project a realistic market cap and calculate expected value per wallet.
The correct method to estimate earnings is to focus on market capitalization, not token price. Token price is capitalization divided by circulating supply, so price alone is irrelevant for earnings.
Not Coin launched in a bull market with a peak market cap of $2.4B, now ~$1B. Hamster Kombat has a current cap of ~$345M. These provide realistic benchmarks for X Empire.
As of September 27, X Empire has 45 million total players, 15 million connected wallets, and 12 million daily active users. The airdrop likely targets the 15 million wallet-connected users.
Assuming a starting market cap of $350M (conservative) and 15 million recipients, the average earnings per wallet would be about $23. If all 45 million users receive airdrops, the average drops to ~$7.5.
The creator previously predicted Hamster Kombat's price in May using the same method (participant count and expected cap), and it worked out accurately.
Focusing on market capitalization and user count provides a reliable estimate for airdrop earnings, as demonstrated by previous projects. The expected value per wallet for X Empire is around $23 under realistic assumptions.
"Title promises earnings and token price analysis, and the video delivers a clear calculation method, though the actual price is not given."
What is the key metric to estimate earnings from a crypto airdrop?
Market capitalization, not token price.
00:01
How is token price calculated?
Token price = market capitalization / number of tokens in circulation.
01:09
What was the peak market cap of Not Coin?
Approximately $2.4 billion.
03:11
How many X Empire players have connected their wallets?
15 million.
02:28
What is the estimated earnings per wallet if market cap is $350M and 15M recipients?
About $23 per wallet.
04:38
What is the current market cap of Hamster Kombat?
Approximately $345 million.
03:39
Why does the number of tokens issued not affect earnings?
Because earnings depend on market cap and number of participants, not token supply.
01:38
Focus on Market Cap, Not Token Price
Clarifies a common misconception among crypto investors about what drives earnings.
00:01Realistic Earnings Estimate
Provides a concrete, data-backed estimate of $23 per wallet based on conservative assumptions.
04:09Proven Prediction Method
The creator's previous accurate prediction for Hamster Kombat validates the methodology.
05:52[00:01] how much we will earn on xempire. In fact, this is a more correct approach when we calculate how much we will earn ini. How much will the price of a token cost? Well, what the price of a token is, this is generally of no interest to any investor. This
[00:15] information does not provide the slightest value, that is, the price of a token depends on how many of these tokens there are. We are more interested in capitalization and we are interested in how we will earn, how much we will earn. What I will now show you is this
[00:27] calculation method. It is suitable for everything, not even just the crypto market, in general, for any market, in general, for all finances. Well, in this case, we will apply it to crypto. See how everything is actually simple. The first thing we need. But we need to
[00:41] understand. In general, with what capitalization it can come out, let's see. It's just that previous similar projects, not Coin, in fact, do not quite suit us. Hamster, which came out just the other day, it suits us. Why now, I will
[00:56] day, it suits us. Why now, I will explain. Not Coin came out in a normal cycle, that is, in a bull market. If we take Market Cap, this is what We are interested in the total capitalization because the price of a token is the capitalization divided by the
[01:09] number of tokens currently in circulation. That is, if you divide this capitalization by the number of tokens in circulation, you will get the price. Well, in this case, it is not and this works in general for everything, that is, this is how the
[01:24] whole thing is calculated. Therefore, when we are interested in how much we will earn, we do not care at all about the price of the token. That is, if, for example, Well, like with Hamster, it was like everyone was screwed
[01:38] because they issued a lot of coins, this does not affect how much you will earn at all because we are interested in capitalization. That is, if there were twice as many tokens, 10 times more, 10 times less,
[01:50] this would not affect your actual earnings at all because the real money for which people can buy this thing will not increase from this. not liquidity, these are different things, but nevertheless, we still rely
[02:04] on this indicator. Let's calculate no, before the calculations, I will start with something else. I found an article in English here and we will also need it. What
[02:16] we are interested in is that the distribution will be without locks. Well, at least at the moment, the information that is available when it was. Here, on the twenty-seventh of September, this quite recent. At the moment, we are
[02:28] interested in how many players we have in total. 45 million players. Well, not a little, not a little, but at the same time, those who connected the wallet are only 15 million. 12 million come in daily. We are not very interested. We are interested in this figure.
[02:42] That is, we can assume that most likely the drop will receive 15 million wallets. Well, there were some people with wallets, but that's another matter. Or 45 million is just the maximum. In the worst-case scenario. Well, that is, the more participants, the less
[02:58] each will receive on average because the capitalization is common and we will now divide this capitalization by the value of potential recipients of the drop. The first thing we need to find out is what capitalization this could be.
[03:11] Let's start from the beginning. Not Coin, which launched this whole thing, there is a thing called now, by the way. I'm on the crypto market, I click on Market Cap, if you look at it, let's say at the peak, it was almost 2.4
[03:24] billion, which is pretty cool. At the moment, it's a little less than a billion dollars, but it was the first and it was pretty cool. It had a good cycle. The story here is also similar, but here are more realistic figures.
[03:39] Currently, the capitalization is 400 million, which is somewhere around this, and the hamster's capitalization is currently 345 million. Well, again, we look at the market cycle, take the very top candle there, we won't take it somewhere around here. Well,
[03:55] even half a billion doesn't work out, well, at the peak. Of course, it's higher, but at the peak, it's always like this. Therefore, in principle, what we can count on. Well, objectively, it's better to count on lower values, because if they are higher,
[04:09] well, it will be, well, more pleasant. But nevertheless, when we compare this to this, it's no longer a finger in the sky, but the numbers we rely on for our calculations, so let's Let's assume that at the start the capitalization will be
[04:23] around 350 million, although in reality this is, well, let's say, a lot. So what do we have? Let's take a calculator and calculate the e-ci Cap 350 million, a calculator and calculate the e-ci Cap 350 million, 350 million, and we divide it by the number of
[04:38] potential recipients of the drop. I don't take 45 million users, I take 15 million who connected the wallet, we divide by 15 million, and thus we get 23 dollars per wallet. That is, no matter how you look at it, we are still moving near this figure.
[04:53] You see, here's the trick here: it doesn't matter how many tokens they issue, I don't care at all, well, it doesn't affect anything at all, only the capitalization and the number of players are important, everything else is smoke and mirrors that simply
[05:08] prevent you from seeing the big picture. In fact, everything is very simple, this could be the situation? They will distribute 45 million wallets to everyone. Well, it will be sad. It's three times less, then it turns out that on average there will be one per wallet.
[05:22] At 7.5 dollars, the capitalization will be higher, but fewer people will be a different story, but I would count on a cap of 350 million, which I am already showing. Well, you can simply substitute other
[05:36] values, but we really rely on them. By what logic do I explain everything, and again, everyone has a different number of points in 15 million wallets, the distribution is not always linear, but you can really rely on these numbers. Just like
[05:52] What will be the price of this hamster back in May, that is, in May, I told him the price in advance. This is how it works because I simply understood the number of participants and I understood how much
[06:05] capitalization they could get and that's all from there. I told him the price, which is basically how everything worked out. If this was useful, subscribe If you want to really make money on crypto, there is a
[06:20] full educational playlist below. Kurt on making money on cryptocurrency. Everything is publicly available. You don't have to pay for anything. For now, everything is free, take it and use it. I have everything. Don't be Drain all the [ __ ] with pigs and make money
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