2026 — 93% Probability of a Crisis

[00:02] There is a certain mathematical formula that has been predicting all formula that has been predicting all crises for over 100 years, and it is very accurate. Today we will use it and determine the probability of the crisis starting in

[00:17] determine the probability of the crisis starting in 2026. This is also consistent with other clear factors that are currently being observed in the market. My goal right now is to prepare you for the coming economic

[00:32] upheavals, because these upheavals present a lot of opportunities, but to do that you need to be prepared for them in advance. And we will analyze various mathematical formulas, various indicators,

[00:47] in order to try to determine as accurately as possible when that very time will come . And let's start with the most ancient forecast. Here is a chart of the S&P 500 index on a weekly time frame. And on the right you can

[01:03] see the mark that I have for 2026. What does it mean? for 2026. What does it mean? I'll start from the very beginning. 150 years ago there lived a certain farmer who was almost ruined by the economic

[01:19] shock that occurred in 1875. It was in the raw materials market. And this man, in order to avoid something like this in the future , began to analyze many indicators and began to look for some kind of formula that would help him. And in the end

[01:36] he found her. This man's name was Samuel Benner, and he discovered that the market alternates at roughly equal intervals between periods of

[01:48] maximum optimism, maximum pessimism, and times of panic. Based on what he found, he made a specific sign so that he could use it as a reference in the future. The table has now appeared in front of you, and

[02:04] we will only consider the first two points, namely the time of panic and points, namely the time of panic and the time of profit taking, that is, the time when the price is high, the time before the correction. And I would like to draw your

[02:19] attention to the fact that the next time for taking profits is in 2026. This means that a deep correction may begin in 2026. And now

[02:35] our task is to determine with what probability, based on this formula, it will begin. In the educational videos that are included in the playlist on our channel, I have

[02:48] repeatedly stated that the market is cyclical, and this pendulum constantly swings from the side of maximum pessimism to the side of maximum pessimism to the side of maximum optimism and back again. And now we

[03:01] will consider this cyclicality precisely in the time interval, that is, when the very swing of the pendulum can begin . I think this is very interesting, so be sure to watch this video until the end. And we begin the check together.

[03:18] To calculate the probability of future events, we must look events, we must look into the past. And the previous time of panic according to the into the past. And the previous time of panic according to the Benner cycles was in 2019. And

[03:32] as you can see, in 2019 the S&P 500 index was at its highest point. S&P 500 index was at its highest point. And at the beginning of 2020, we had a corona crisis, that is, a time of panic, a time of upheaval. And then the index fell very quickly

[03:49] upheaval. And then the index fell very quickly , by about 35%. That is, the previous time of panic was indicated precisely. Let's move on with you. And the indicated precisely. Let's move on with you. And the next time of profit taking was in

[04:03] next time of profit taking was in 2016. Of course, the S&P 500 was quite high because it was in an uptrend. But, as we can see, we did not have a correction then, and the index continued its

[04:16] upward movement. That is, in 2016 this formula did not work. Let's look further into the past and the next year is 2007.

[04:28] Notice what happened in 2007 . That is, the S&P 500 index . That is, the S&P 500 index was at its highest point. And after this year, an extremely deep

[04:41] decline began. This decline amounted to a whopping 58% from the global maximum at that time . That is, here again the formula worked, and it indicated a very deep correction. Now we'll speed up

[04:56] a little. The next fixation time is 1999. And again, at that time the S&P 500 index was at its maximum. And S&P 500 index was at its maximum. And then we saw a 50% correction.

[05:11] Again, here the Benra cycles worked. Next is 1989 . Here again, the index was located at a local maximum and

[05:23] then there was a correction of approximately 20%. But before this, the price once again updated the global maximum and only then made this correction. In principle, there is a slight error, but it can be taken into account. Next is 1981.

[05:41] Again, the index was located at a local maximum. And here we local maximum. And here we began a deep correction of 27%. Next comes 1972, again a local maximum and a deep correction of 49%.

[05:59] maximum and a deep correction of 49%. 1965, local maximum, deep correction of 23%. 1962, local maximum and again we see a correction of 28%. In 1953 we saw a correction, but not

[06:14] that deep, as the index corrected by about 14-15%. 1945, local maximum, and 1945, local maximum, and correction by 29%. 1935. Here we have a

[06:28] time to take profits, but after this time has passed, another year has passed. And only after this did the deep correction of the senior degree begin. This is a correction of 59-60%. And 1927, again, is a time of

[06:45] profit-taking after growth. After this, the price continued to rise for 1-2 years, and then we saw an extremely deep correction of 86%. Now let's draw conclusions. In total, Benner's cycles indicated 13 declines. And of all

[07:02] Benner's cycles indicated 13 declines. And of all the falls, only one did not come to fruition. the falls, only one did not come to fruition. It was in 2016, and there is some error. Let's say in a few cases the price

[07:14] started to fall a year or two after that period was designated. And now, based on this data, we will calculate the probability of a deep decline beginning in 2026. I

[07:26] would like to point out that the falls happened more than once or twice. We've now looked at the more than once or twice. We've now looked at the entire history of the S&P 500 index that is available to us. That is, this is a clear pattern. And in almost all cases,

[07:40] these Benra cycles indicated a deep correction. Accordingly, the probability of correction. Accordingly, the probability of this correction starting in 2026 is, pay attention, 93%. And yet there is a margin of error with a

[07:54] thirty percent probability that this decline will be delayed for a year or two. 2027 or in 2028. Considering this probability, that is, 93%, you yourself understand that this is a lot, we need to prepare for this

[08:10] deep fall. We have now only looked at the Benner cycles, but let's look at, for example, some other factors. There is a certain mathematical method of analysis that allows us to

[08:23] analyze cyclicality as accurately as possible, both globally and in the local picture. And globally and in the local picture. And this method is based on Fibonacci numbers, on those very numbers, the proportions of which make up our entire world. This is the

[08:36] wave principle. I would like to point out that with wave analysis, if all the rules and regulations are taken into account, and the rarest expanding structures are excluded, then there will be a minimum of discrepancies. And the wave

[08:50] principle is the most accurate market map, allowing us to navigate this very global picture. And what does this type of analysis tell us? I'll just summarize it so you don't have to go into too much detail . He says that there is

[09:06] now a high probability of the beginning of a correction of the senior degree. Moreover , it is possible that this correction will be very deep. For example, based on the maximums of the deepest corrections that occurred in a given place and in a given location, I drew a

[09:21] resistance trend line, that is, along waves one and three of the highest degree. And the last wave of the structure, as a rule, reaches the parallel channel, which is

[09:33] drawn along these highs, and then makes a deep fall. There is also a possibility of a breakout of this trend line and a culminating acceleration, as, for example, happened in this lower-degree wave. But

[09:49] notice what happened when we approached this parallel channel, this trend line. The price made a deep fall from this trend line here and only then continued its rise. Moreover, we had a probable

[10:05] extended third wave. And since our third wave is extended, it is unlikely that the fifth wave will be the same. That is, one of the significant factors is the approach to this trend line, which, in principle, confirms that a deep correction may begin in 2026 or

[10:22] plus or minus 1-2 years . But that's not all. Let's back this up with more factors. As a decision we need at least three or four reasons. So far we have

[10:38] only found two. Precious metals, gold and silver, are a safe haven asset. And, as a rule, they rise very sharply during periods of market uncertainty, that is, either before a crisis, or during a crisis, or immediately after a crisis. And

[10:54] crisis, or immediately after a crisis. And now we see acceleration in gold and silver. Gold, realizing the scenario that I outlined at the beginning of 2023, made an upward impulse from a local minimum by as much as 150%. If we take

[11:11] the minimum a little to the left, it will be as much as 300%. For a precious metal, for a safe haven asset, this is a lot. When else have we seen impulses like these? We saw these impulses on this wave and on this one. Now let's compare

[11:29] this to the S&P 500 index chart. We'll add gold, make it white to make it more visible, and tweak the whole thing a bit . So in 1930

[11:42] we have very little information on the gold chart as you can see because it's a little biased. However, here we see an upward movement. And what happened during this upward movement in gold? A deep fall in the

[11:59] S&P500 index, that is, a crisis, a correction of the highest degree. Next, correction of the highest degree. Next, we see the next surge in gold growth right here. And what was happening on the index at that time? Correction of

[12:12] senior degree, deep correction. We then had a surge in gold growth in We then had a surge in gold growth in 2000 and 2008. At this time we had crises and deep corrections took place . And now the next

[12:28] surge in gold is happening, that is, the next impulse in gold. So what can we impulse in gold. So what can we assume? The fact that our index will go into a deep correction. Next, let's look at what happened next.

[12:42] That is, after the crisis, after the sharp surge in gold, the S&P 500 index continued to rise. Here gold was trading sideways, but the information is not objective. Further to the right, the S&P 500 index is rising, gold is in a higher-order correction. And

[12:56] after the 2008 crisis, gold again went into a deep correction, while the S&P 500 index continued to rise. What am I getting at? Moreover, in terms of structure,

[13:08] gold will also most likely begin a correction of a higher degree. That is, the structure is shaping up to be a final wave, after which we will begin a deep correction in gold. That is, we

[13:22] see similarities with the previous situations: impulse, correction of a higher degree, impulse, correction of a higher degree, impulse. Once again, we are faced with a correction of the senior degree. It’s the same with silver, that is, silver implements our scenario.

[13:36] We are leading silver from the mark of approximately 20 dollars. Now it's already at 50. And in the near future, I expect a correction, then continued growth with a new high, and then a correction of a higher degree. Everything is the same. The sharp rise in

[13:51] precious metals is the third factor that could trigger a crisis in the near future. And based on three factors, we can conclude that this is more likely to happen and make some financial decisions.

[14:05] You can also find other factors if you want , just to keep the video from dragging on. I won't go into them, but there really are a lot of factors. And given the probability that we found, namely, this probability of 93%,

[14:20] taking into account the number of factors, this is most likely indeed the case. So again, be prepared for this. Now here's an interesting fact. Cryptocurrency interesting fact. Cryptocurrency was created in our country immediately after the end of the

[14:33] was created in our country immediately after the end of the crisis in 2008. And the question arises: is cryptocurrency a salvation in this looming crisis? Honestly, I can't say for sure, but I can analyze Bitcoin itself and its

[14:49] structure. And as you know again, if you watch my channel, I expect a major correction to begin in cryptocurrency in the near future . Essentially, cryptocurrency is confirming that we are headed for a crisis in the next couple of years,

[15:02] because the next Bitcoin correction will likely be Bitcoin correction will likely be different from previous bear markets . Now a few words from myself about what I think about this. In Matthew

[15:15] I think about this. In Matthew 24:32 it says, "Learn a parable from the fig tree : When its branch becomes tender and puts out leaves, then you know that summer is near." That is, the plant bears its fruit at a certain rate, at a

[15:30] certain cyclical rate. And then they either fall off, or we pick them and eat them. But before they bear fruit, they have certain patterns, certain regularities that repeat themselves over and over again. And

[15:44] now in the market we see the same thing, the same regularities, the same patterns that repeat themselves at a certain rate over and over again . So, what does this mean? That the time is near. And since we have

[15:58] this information, we can prepare for it . Prepare mentally, prepare financially , make an action plan and implement this plan. So, why is there panic in the market? Because

[16:12] people are simply not prepared for what is happening. They were not prepared. But if If you know the time is near and you can prepare in advance, you won't panic. You can actually take advantage of it. Let's say

[16:25] what I'm doing? I'm gradually accumulating cash to sell it in the future. Of course, I tried to prepare for this in advance . Let's say 2-3 years ago I bought precious metals, gold and silver, and I told you about it. Also, in

[16:40] cryptocurrency, and now we're making profits on it , which also serves as cash for , which also serves as cash for future investments. And a year ago, I told you that I bought bonds, which have now brought me

[16:53] terms. That is, the cash we have set aside will be key in this decline cash we have set aside will be key in this decline . And if at the time of the decline we have everything in certain assets, let's say, yes, in Bitcoin, in

[17:07] altcoins, in precious metals, which are already at their maximum, if you're buying them now, and in the shares of some American companies, then, of course, all this will bring us, on the contrary, Loss. But, of course, I'm not telling

[17:20] generate a stable passive income. For example, dividend-paying stocks or bonds, because what matters here is how many shares you own, not their price. I'm simply telling you to prepare cash in advance from

[17:35] telling you to prepare cash in advance from sources that can provide it. Because if you don't have cash, then missing such a drop would, of course, be a bit of a shame, because such drops happen once every

[17:49] few years or even once every decade and offer the best opportunities. Drops are the best opportunities to enter the market. Forewarned is forearmed. Friends, if you found this video

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[18:18] I wish everyone all the best, profits, and success. I love you all and bye to everyone profits, and success. I love you all and bye to everyone .