3 Quick Tips to Crush Prediction Markets (Kalshi/PolyMarket)

[00:02] new frontier of sports betting. But 99% of bettors are using them completely around trying to figure out these platforms, sharp betterers are quietly extracting massive value using three simple strategies. I'm about to show you

[00:16] the exact three-step system that I use to crush exchanges like Novig and Cowshi. These aren't your basic tips that you'll find anywhere else. This is profitable betterers from the crowd. By

[00:28] exactly how to evaluate liquidity, when to use exchanges as your sharp book, and how to capitalize on line movement before everyone else catches on. The first strategy completely changed how I approach exchanges, and it starts with

[00:41] ignore when they're hunting for value. Let me show you my exact process when I'm evaluating plays on the OddJam Plus EV tool. I don't just automatically jump on a play first. There needs to be a criteria that is met. Now, the first

[00:55] thing is when I come over to the filter section, I like to find plays between a minus 150 to plus 130 odds range. This gives us slightly better or worse of a flip of a coin's odds. So, slightly above or below 50%. The next thing that

[01:09] I take into consideration is the actual liquidity that is available on these exchanges. So, some of these top plays on the lefth hand side all have a very on the lefth hand side all have a very high three, four or 5% EV edge. But as

[01:23] you can see, this play on Profitex has $21 in liquidity. Nerkage has $18. This plays has $134. 154, 97, 308, 37, 114, 142. There's a

[01:36] common theme with all of these plays. The liquidity that you're available to wager on these plays is below $500. One of the beautiful things about exchanges like Novvic, Koshi, Poly Market, and Profitex, there are no limits. You'll

[01:51] never get limited using these exchanges or prediction markets. They actually make their money off transaction fees. So, the more that you trade or bet, the more money that they make. So, if I'm a professional sports better that has a 50

[02:03] professional sports better that has a 50 or $100,000 bankroll or higher, I'm not looking to lure in odds gym users with 20 or $100 bets. So, anything that's under $500 could be posted by the sports book. This is very common on no vig

[02:17] where they'll sometimes post their own liquidity on these plays. So, I have an immense amount of confidence going after anything that's under $500 because I'm very certain that a professional sports better isn't trying to lure me into a

[02:29] trap. But what happens when the exchange liquidity is massive compared to the sports books? That's when my second strategy comes into play. And this one might blow your mind. Most betterers think that pinnacle is always the

[02:42] sharpest sports book, but sometimes the exchange can become your new pinnacle. When exchange liquidity is five times higher or more to pinnacle's limit, this is when I treat the exchange as the sharp sports book. Particularly when all

[02:56] the liquidity is posted by one person. So over here on odds jam sharp money massive amounts of liquidity are being posted on profitex and novig. So on display here on Fabian Zutterland, you can see that there's $7,200 posted by

[03:14] one particular user. They are offering you to bet the over one and a half shots on goal. That means they want the opposite. They want to bet the under one and a half shots on goal. And they've posted $7,200

[03:26] for this play. Now they want this play at minus 108 odds. You can see that pinnacle on this under is at minus 115. So we're not talking about a really big tool is going to tell you which

[03:38] the same price that that sharp better wants or more. Now, in this case, you can see over here on the lefth hand side, Pinnacle's accepting a $250 limit on this play. Well, $7800 divided by 250 is 31 times. That means

[03:56] that this is 31 times the limit what Pinnacle is taking. It's safe to say that this individual has a high amount of confidence on this Zeterlin over under. So what I would do in this situation is since this is 5x or higher,

[04:11] in this case it's 31 times Pinnacle's limit. This is a play that I would look as to consider betting this over on a recreational book somewhere between 5 to 10 cents of width. Meaning this better wants this play at minus 108 odds. I

[04:26] would be willing to go up to maybe minus 115, maybe minus 118 odds range to find this on a recreational book. Meaning that I would maybe go bet this on Novig or DraftKings or obviously Hard Rock, The Score, [music]

[04:41] Bet MGM. There's a number of recreational books that I can get action down on this play that's very similarly priced to where this better wants this play at. Same thing here with Thomas Shabbat. Pinnacle's only taking $250.

[04:56] And while we see one better has $1,200 posted on his plate, another better has posted on his plate, another better has this at $6,100. That's well above the 5x multiplier limit of Pinnacle. So once again, this better wants to offer you

[05:10] the over one 12 shots. That means they want the under one and 1/2 and they want it at + 112 odds. If you see the minus12 here, remember this better wants the other side of that which is + 112. So, if I can find this within 5 to 10 cents

[05:24] of that range, which I definitely can over at DraftKings or FanDuel, then this would be a play that I would go bet [music] into the Wreck books. This opportunities. Number one, it's we're betting into a range. So, if you see a

[05:38] or you don't have access to, well, just try to find a range within 5 to 10 cents of that play and go ahead and get your action down. Number two, most betterers think that Pinnacle is the only sports book that you use as a sharp. But when

[05:51] it comes to player props, a lot of books offer low liquidity. And when you can see in both of those examples, we're talking 25 to 30 times the amount of money is being offered on the exchange compared to Pinnacle. I believe that

[06:03] that liquidity. And I just want to go ahead and attack the recreational books. If you want to try the Sharp EV tool and the plus EV tool for free for 7 days, use code Billy35. It'll be linked in the description below. You'll receive a

[06:17] 1week free trial and then 35% off your first month after the trial ends. If you make sure to smash that subscribe button, click that thumbs up button, and tap that bell notification so you don't miss the next video that we release. But

[06:31] The third strategy takes advantage of something unique about the way that the exchanges operate compared to the sharp sports books. While traditional sports exchanges work differently, and this creates a massive opportunity. Use line

[06:46] movements from Sharp Sports Books to bet stale lines on exchanges before they adjust. Over here on OGM's positive EV tool, you could see an opportunity here with Adrian Kempe. This is pure gold. Traditional sports books move their

[06:59] demand. Well, that's not the case with exchanges because the order needs to be cancelled or filled, so they stay out there a little bit longer. So, when two and a half shots, when I click into Pinnacle, you can see that roughly

[07:14] within the last 24 minutes, Pinnacle moved their price significantly. We're moved their price significantly. We're talking from -13 to -125. This play is staying out there on Novig for quite some time at the same [music] exact

[07:27] price. So, Novig's order, whoever posted this play right now, well, it has to either get cancelled by that user or get filled. So, if I'm someone that's on Novig that posted this play, maybe I got a little bit busy with my day today that

[07:40] going on with the news. And this is where you can take advantage of exchanges. Line movement is an extremely powerful indicator that you want to add to your repertoire. This is going to put you on the fast track to success. The

[07:53] reason this strategy works is because on exchanges, it's up to the individual to manage their orders. While traditional sports books have algorithms that just automatically move the lines, that lag time is pure profit when you can spot

[08:05] movements from sharp books within the last 60 minutes. The three strategies that separate the pros from the amateurs. Always take a look at the book. That's going to help make your decision whether you're going to attack

[08:18] that exchange or prediction market or if you're going to use it as your guide. Anytime there's a 5x multiplier or higher two pinnacle circa or bookmaker, this is when you're going to want to lean on that exchange as the sharp and

[08:30] bet into the recreational books. Capitalize on sharp books line movement by betting into the exchange lines that are stale. The exchange game is evolving fast and those who adapt first will profit the most. If you're still trying

[08:43] work and how you can capitalize on this gold rush, you need to take a look at to walk you through exactly how to attack them. Click this video on the Koshi and Poly Market operate where you can get into this gold rush before

[08:57] can get into this gold rush before everyone else catches