The Most Profitable Parlay Betting Strategy

[00:03] what I decided to do is in this video I'm actually going to break down the math behind parlays in detail and also show you how you can get an edge on your parlays and win long term so it's very common sports betting advice to hear

[00:18] that you should never bet on parlays you'll hear this advice from experts all over Tik Tok YouTube and other social media platforms I understand we want to straight bet bro listen even if you can't just have your only bet side there

[00:31] outcomes to happen at the same time last M 27 and5 you can beat the SS but you going gon will you win they gonna say yeah come turn this $10 in a 500 they person going hit four threes try this part you playing $1 on the par they tell

[00:46] to put nothing to win it's also completely true that Sports books make more money on parlays off the average customer compared to straight bets this is referred to as hold percentage so for example this study says parlay hold

[01:01] percentage which means the profit margin for sports books is roughly 30% so the average customer betting $100 on a parlay the sports book's going to take parlay the sports book's going to take $30 from that person long term so I want

[01:15] to be really clear I'm not saying betting on parlays is easy anybody should do it you really have to know the math and understand the strategy to get an edge in win long term but at the same time making money sports betting isn't

[01:27] time making money sports betting isn't easy 90% of people 97% I apologize of sports betting long term that's what keeps the books in business so yes it's completely true most people are going to lose money betting on parlays that's how

[01:42] the sports books are in business right the typical customer loses money however you can absolutely make money betting on paray with the right strategy at the end of the day parlays are just combinations of bets right you're pairing two

[01:57] straight bets together so long story short if you make money on straight bets long term then I'm going to show you which I'm again I'm not saying it's easy 97% of people lose long term is I'm going to show you how to make money on

[02:10] parlays so before getting deep into the math behind parlays which I'm going to prove to you that they can be profitable let's go through the simple logic of making money on parlays so let's say you have a positive 5% Roi on straight bets

[02:25] for two like parlays you'll have roughly a 10% Roi three leg parlay 15% your Edge compounds parlays are just a combination of bets so you can see my parlay Roi

[02:38] last year in 2024 is actually higher than my Straight bet R Roi again parlays are just combinations of bets I had a 14% Roi on my parlays 5% on straight bets in 2024 so if you're a profitable better your Roi is actually going to be

[02:54] higher on paralyzed but you got to remember most people lose money sports remember most people lose money sports betting 97% % of people so negative Edge also compounds the typical Sports better loses roughly 5% on their straight bets

[03:09] loses roughly 5% on their straight bets so that means -10% on two like parlays so that means -10% on two like parlays -5% on three leg parlays -2% on four leg parlays so that math isn't perfect but it gives you a rough idea parlays can

[03:23] absolutely be profitable if you have an edge on your straight bets you should be able to make money on your Pary so one question a lot of people ask me is why are you Alex Monahan why are you betting on so many parlays and the

[03:37] reason the main reason is a lot of new sports books and fantasy books that are super exploitable including better picks I made over $60,000 on this book last year they're parlay only websites so if

[03:52] you try on better picks to select only one play AKA a straight bet they're going to tell you hey you need at least two picks to complete your entry so I use these fantasy books like better dabble all the time because they're

[04:07] super exploitable but again they're parlay only books so if you want to use them and you want to make money on them like I've done you're going to have to bet on parlay the second main reason that I bet on parlay is there's a lot of

[04:20] lucrative promos that are parlay you know only promos Sports books know that they make a killing off the average customer the average customer on parlays they have a higher hold so Sports books they try to push people to bet on

[04:34] parlays by offering profit boosts no sweat bets other forms of promos that only work for paray and again 97% of people lose money sports betting long term and those people are going to get absolutely killed on par but the purpose

[04:50] of this video again is to help you get into the 3% that's doing the opposite into the 3% that's doing the opposite making money betting on parlays so the first two reasons I bet on parlays some books are parlay only second reason some

[05:03] books you know have lucrative promos for parlays and the third reason is I don't know they're fun right like we all know why people bet on parlays it's fun to bet a small amount of money to potentially win a lot so if you can bet

[05:17] on parlays profitably and have an edge and make money long term what's better than that absolutely nothing in my opinion so now let's get deeper into the math um behind parlays so we're going to start out by going through the math on

[05:34] start out by going through the math on twole parlays where both legs are minus twole parlays where both legs are minus 110 odds so minus 110 odds is the typical juice that Sports books charge on spreads and totals you need to bet

[05:47] 110 to profit 100 so Sports books try to set their over unders their spreads to be roughly 50/50 and then they're forcing you to bet forcing you to bet $110 to win back 100 in profit so so any

[06:00] two like parlay where both bets are minus 110 is going to come out to plus 264 you know parlay odds they're not some magic formula that is meant to lose people money it's very simple how Sports books calculate parlay odds but any two

[06:15] leg parlay where both legs are- 110 is going to come out to plus 264 so when you're betting at minus 110 you know you're putting down 110 to win you know you're putting down 110 to win 100 profit you need to win above 52.4%

[06:29] of your picks to be profitable long term so you'll hear about Sharps Pro betters winning on spreads in totals you know 55% of the time 60% of the time um which means they have a real Edge right Vegas sports books are setting these over

[06:44] unders to be roughly 50/50 so if you're winning 55% of your straight bets at minus 110 that means you're only losing 45% winning 55 losing 45 you have a real Edge so again when you're betting at minus 110 you're putting down 110 to

[07:00] profit 100 so you need to win 11 out of 21 plays to break even that's 52.4% that's your break even win rate so here you can see you know what your Roi

[07:12] will be based on what you can win on straight bets right 60% straight bets right 60% 55% so remember that winning 50% losing 50% of your straight bets means you have no Edge like a monkey could do that

[07:27] you're basically blindly picking the over or the under and that's most sports betters 97% of people they don't have an edge over Vegas and they lose money long term most people don't have an edge that's

[07:40] why the books are in business and if you're winning your spreads in totals atus 110 50% of the time you're going to have a NE 4.5% Roi on straight bets at minus 110 odds that's most people they lose about you know 5% 4.5% on Straits

[07:58] everything is about long-term Roi if you gamble long enough regardless of if you have an edge or not you're going to be able to win five bets in a row what's hard is winning 52.4% or more the break even win rate winning maybe 55% year

[08:14] after year after year so again most people on Straits On totals they're losing about 4.5% of their money because they're winning 50% of their plays they're losing 50% everything is about win rate right with no real Edge betting

[08:30] on spreads and totals is kind of like flipping a coin where when you lose let's say you pick heads you lose $110 when you win you win $100 that's not a fair trade right you're going to get crushed longterm because we know

[08:45] that coin is 50/50 however again sharp betters are going to win on spreads and totals at minus 110 about 55% of the time and that's going to yield a 5% Roi you can see the math right here so now let's

[09:00] kind of get into a two-leg parlay both legs are minus 110 odds and that parlay comes out to plus 264 odds so again on spreads and totals most

[09:13] sports betters aren't profitable they're winning each leg 50% of the time so the probability they win both legs is 25% 50% on the first leg 50% on the second 50% on the first leg 50% on the second leg everything boils down to win rate

[09:28] when you're betting on par what that means is with no Edge you're winning 50% of your picks you're going to have a 9% Roi on twole parlays 25% of

[09:40] the time you're going to hit and win 264 75% of the time you know assuming your unit size is 100 bucks you're going to lose you're going to lose $100 and again you can see the math right here on the screen so most people lose money sports

[09:55] betting doesn't matter straights or totals so they're going to lose even totals so they're going to lose even more on parlays on an Roi percentage it more on parlays on an Roi percentage it goes from 4.5% to 9% so to be profitable

[10:07] betting on parlays you need both picks in your parlay to have an edge to be profitable when we're talking about minus 110 odds that means winning above 52.4% of the time the break even win rate so a sharp better who's winning on

[10:24] straight bets over unders minus 110 odds 55% of the time right their Roi on straight bets is going to be positive 5% we've already gone through the math so for two like parlays they're hitting both legs 55% of the time there's going

[10:40] to be a 30.25% chance they cash their twole 30.25% chance they cash their twole parlay right so it changes from 25% to parlay right so it changes from 25% to 30.25% so for twole parlays a sharp

[10:53] better who's winning each bet 55% of the time the ROI is going to be 10.1% % and again you can see the math here on the screen so long story short the point of

[11:05] saying all this is betting on parlays is actually very simple at the core if both of your bets have an edge you're winning above the break even win rate you pair them together that parlay is going to be profitable so obviously you know we've

[11:21] only gone through examples of a twole parlay where both legs are minus 110 odds but for three leg parlays it gets even more interesting I've kind of said this before for profitable betters their Roi is going to go up for unprofitable

[11:36] bers it's going to go down so for an unprofitable better with no Edge they're winning each leg 50% of the time they're going to hit 12.5% of their three- leg parlays three- leg parlays where each leg is plus

[11:50] leg parlays where each leg is plus 595 or where each leg is-10 come out to 595 or where each leg is-10 come out to plus 595 so the ROI is going to be 133% unprofitable betters and that's obviously very bad

[12:04] now for a short better winning 55% of their picks their Roi is going to go up even more to roughly 16% and again you can see the math here on the screen so

[12:16] one thing I just wanted to mention is it's going to be really hard to know are you profitable are you unprofitable are you winning your Straits or totals above 52.4% of the time if you're not tracking your bets everything in this video is

[12:30] about consistently winning winning longterm so again I highly recommend using a bet tracker because you need to see a large sample size thousands of bets to determine am I profitable am I not

[12:43] profitable so long story short you definitely can make money betting on parlays we just went through the math if you're winning on spreads and totals above 50 2.4% of the time then your parlays are also going to be profitable

[12:57] totals it's not easy to do I'm not saying it's easy to do but it's also not complicated if every bet in your parlay has an edge then your parlay is going to have an edge right if you're profitable betting on straight bets and you pair

[13:11] them together into a parlay your parlay are going to be profitable long term everything boils down to break even win rate so I know the parlays that we went through we use Simple Math - 110 - 110 odds cuz that's standard juice but here

[13:28] you can see a parl I locked in and gave out on Twitter the first leg of the parlay was min-40 odds so when you're betting at-40 odds you're betting 140 to win 100 so you need to win 14 out of 24 bets to break even which is

[13:45] 58.3% so you can use a break even win calculator odds Jam has one to see when I'm betting at this price what percentage of bets do I have to win to percentage of bets do I have to win to break even so for minus 140 it's 58.3%

[13:59] so long story short if you're winning your bets at minus 140 above 58.3% you're going to be profitable long term so if a bet is priced at minus 140 and it's winning 60% of the time 65% of the time it's going to be a profitable

[14:15] bet whether it's as a straight bet or whether you're including it in a parlay so if you parlay that with another bet the other bets profitable winning above the break even win rate then the parlay is going to be profitable the parlay is

[14:28] going to be winning above the break even win rate so what I wanted to go through win rate so what I wanted to go through is why did I lock in this bet at minus 140 and the answer is simple because I thought it was winning above 58.3% of

[14:41] thought it was winning above 58.3% of the time and why did I think that well you can see on fliff I'm getting this at minus 140 other sports books including really really sharp Sports books like bet online had this over as a much

[14:55] bet online had this over as a much bigger favorite bet online had this over priced atus 175 so what you can do is you can take other sports books markets and plug it into a fair odds calculator which just

[15:10] removes the juice or the vague and you can see according to B online they have the over as a much bigger favorite this play is winning 60% of the play is winning 60% of the time so this BET's profitable so is over

[15:23] at-40 has an edge according to bet online's Market I'm getting this at min-40 bet online had the over as a much bigger favorite at minus 175 so clearly I'm getting pretty good value on this play fliff was a big line discrepancy

[15:37] and minus 140 was great value I'm winning above winning above 58.3% in my opinion right and according profitable I could have run it as a straight bet I could have run it in a

[15:50] parlite it would have been profitable regardless but I paired it with another plusy V pick another profitable bet where I thought I was winning above the break even win rate so I thought the parlay was plus EV and that's how I get

[16:03] my parlay results but what I wanted to do is specifically go through an example for one of these fantasy books parlay only books which is called dabble dabble is a book that last year I made over 30 grand on dabble it's super exploitable

[16:18] and the way that dabble works is they give you a 6X payout on any three- pick give you a 6X payout on any three- pick entry betting 100 to win 600 so long story short you need to win a one out of six of your dabble plays to break even

[16:32] right if you win your first one you win 500 then you lose the next five you break even 500 long story short your break even win percentage is6 or 16.7% so if you can win your dabble three pick entries at a 6X payout above

[16:50] 16.7% of the time 20% you're going to be profitable if you can only win them 12% of the time you're going to be unprofitable long term everything's long-term Roi and Dabble is a book I've consistently beat so to win

[17:04] consistently beat so to win 16.7% on your dabble 3 mans you need to win each individual pick in your dabble entry above 55% of the time we can just entry above 55% of the time we can just back it out so you need a real Edge

[17:19] right you need to win above 55% of your picks on dabble to be profitable long term so if you can win 60% of your individual picks that means you're going to win your dabble three mans 21.6% of the time you're going to be

[17:33] profitable now again that seems easy but you need a real Edge right like most people are going to win their over unders 50% of the time and get crushed long term you can see the math breakdown here if you can pick these over unders

[17:48] correctly dabble setting them to be roughly 50/50 if you can only win them 50% of the time you're over unders you're going to get crushed so what I do is compare dabble to Sports books like FanDuel so for example take Obi toppen I

[18:03] bet him over seven and a half points and whether I take his over or his under on dabble it's a fixed payout site I got the same payout so the reason I thought this pick was winning above 55% of the time and was profitable is you can see

[18:17] every sports book like FanDuel they all had the over heavily favored so comparing these fantasy books like dabble these parlay only Sports books um directly to other books like FanDuel and DraftKings make it easy to find picks

[18:34] winning above 55% of the time on dabble that are profitable in a dabble 3an so I compare fantasy books parlay only Sports books like dabble better picks directly to sports books that's how I find Value so it's very mathematical a data driven

[18:50] approach I simply follow the data and Dabble has thousands of lines up tens of they're trying to set these lines to be roughly 50/50 but everybody makes mistakes every sports book makes mistakes so I'm simply capitalizing on

[19:05] the inefficiencies in the market you know as Shar betters were looking for those rare few spots in this case it was topend points where there's an actual Edge right like I'm looking for the few rare spots on dabble where they have a

[19:20] lineup when either the over or the under is heavily favored it's all math it's all data regardless I hope you enjoyed this video please subscribe to the channel like the video comment other video ideas I love making sports betting

[19:34] content this video we really went deep into the math behind parlays I'm happy to answer any questions comment them below and thank you so much for your below and thank you so much for your time