Parlay Betting Explained: Profitable Strategy — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:02] thousand dollars from just a fifty cent bet this is what this guy did using what is known as parlay or multi-betting so what is parlay betting and how can you make money from it too a parlay bet otherwise known as a multi or

[00:14] accumulator bet in other countries is a type of sports bar where you can buy in two or more individual beds into a single bet here's an example of a parlay bet imagine you want to bet on three basketball games the first game has

[00:28] decimal odds of 2.0 for the first team to win the second game has 1.75 odds for the team B to win and the third game has 1.8 odds for team C to win you can

[00:40] choose the bet on each game individually or you can choose to place a parlay bet that combines all three games into one and each of these is known as a leg if you chose to place a 10 parlay boat on all three games the overall odds of your

[00:54] parlay bet will be calculated by multiplying the odds of each individual game 2.0 times 1.7 5 times 1.8 which is 6.3 if all three teams win you would receive a higher payout of 63 which is 6.3 times 10. then if you had placed

[01:09] separate bets on each individual game parlay bets are popular because they offer a chance of a higher payout for a relatively small initial stake in this case the individual placed a six-leg parlay of the first basket scorer across

[01:23] six basketball games which made the odds plus 26 million or over 260 payout of one hundred and thirty thousand dollars for a 50 Cent BET so

[01:36] strategy of trying the same thing by combining six first scorers and hopefully winning big absolutely not this is because while parlays give you higher odds and higher payouts if you do win the chances of you winning are

[01:52] decreased by much more this is because of just one of your legs such as one of the teams to win or one of your first basket scorers lose or is predicted incorrectly the entire parlay bet is lost no matter how many other legs you

[02:05] win even if you want all the other ones basically if the odds given to you in the parlay are worse than the fair odds then the parlay odds are compounded in a way that is even worse if the fair odds for each leg of a hypothetical parlay

[02:19] was two and the Sportsbook was offering 1.8 then the odds for a 10 leg parlay 1.8 then the odds for a 10 leg parlay would be 1.8 to the power of 10 or 357. this is not even close to the fair rods of 2 to the power of 10 or 1024 and as

[02:34] such you're getting ripped off by much more and that's why sportsbooks love the idiots who punt on parlays and encourages practice as it makes them more money overall for each lucky guy who wins Big and goes on to boast about

[02:46] it there's Millions more who will never win a single parlay like this in their life and of course you're not going to be seeing about this because they're not going to be posting or showing off their losses on social media however there is

[02:59] advantage of parlays and make money and I'm going to prove it to you using mathematics the basic principle is combining legs into a parlay where each leg is positive EV that means the odds given to you are higher than the

[03:13] thyroids if you're not familiar with what positive EV is then go watch my video on that first and then come back to this one let's take a look at a hypothetical scenario there are three separate flips of a fair coin World bet

[03:25] on let's say the bookmaker is offering odds of three for heads and 1.5 for tails for each flip obviously in each case the bet on heads is positive Eevee and the bet on Tails would be negative EV if we were to bet a hundred dollars

[03:39] on just the first coin toss our expected value would be the probability it lands otherwise known as the profit or loss if it lands on heads plus the probability it lands on Tails multiplied by the

[03:52] profit or loss if it lands on Tails this would be 50 multiplied by a positive 200 value costs a fifty percent mode applied by a negative one hundred dollar value which is fifty dollars in net expected value for this bet if we were to bet a

[04:06] hundred dollars on a parlay where we say for each of these coin tosses it will land on heads so we're combining three legs and each leg is the first coin flip will be heads the second coins that will be heads and the third coin flip will be

[04:19] your heads then our odds to given to us will be three times three times three which is 27. the chances of each separate coin flipping heads is the product of the individual probabilities which is fifty percent times fifty

[04:31] percent times fifty percent or twelve point five percent in total therefore we have a fair probability of 12.5 percent of winning our parlay bet and in all other cases we don't win our bet so we have an 87.5 chance of losing our parlay

[04:45] bit which is when we would lose one or more of these legs which would result in the whole parlay being lost this means we can calculate our expected value and that is 12.5 multiplied by a profit of two thousand six hundred dollars plus

[04:58] two thousand six hundred dollars plus 87.5 send chance multiplied by the 100 we lose if it doesn't win which is 237.50 in expected value much higher than the 50 expected value if we just placed a single bet on hits this is

[05:12] because of the compounding effect of parlays when you multiply odds together however you will notice that our chance of winning has been reduced from 50 to 12.5 percent making it riskier but it does even out in the long term as long

[05:26] as you're getting positive EV bets so it's very critical that you make sure for each individual leg you're getting odds that are higher than the fair odds basically known as positive EV otherwise this strategy won't work and you're

[05:39] going to be losing even more money than you would have if you just play single bets let's take a look at how we can find a real life example you can either find positive EV bets manually which might take a bit longer or you can use a

[05:51] sports betting odds comparison site like today's sponsor oddsjam which scans the odds across all the different sports books that you filter for and finds and lists start the best positive Eevee opportunities for a parlay bet we need

[06:04] to make sure that the positive EV bets are all on the same Sportsbook in this case we'll use oddsjam to filter for Bet365 Sportsbook as from a quick glance it seems to have the most positive EV opportunities we can do a three leg poly

[06:18] choosing the three bets with the highest positive expected value in this case the total goals across three different hockey games oddsjam uses a formula applied to a sharp sportsbook's odds Pinnacle to determine the fair or no big

[06:31] odds while this isn't as accurate as an exchange we can still use them with some confidence as long as the width is relatively low as this number represents how confident Pinnacle is in their rods if we use this as the fair rides then we

[06:44] can work out the third probability that we win this bet which is one of the product of the fair rides which is one divided by 2.7 multiplied by 2.61 divided by 2.7 multiplied by 2.61 multiplied by 2.72 which gives us a 5.22

[06:58] probability of winning then we can calculate the EV of a 100 three leg poly if we combine all these legs this is the probability we win or three legs multiplied by the profit if we win or three minus the probability it doesn't

[07:13] win multiplied by the loss this is 5.22 multiplied by a profit of multiplied by a profit of 2054.60 plus 1 minus 5.22 multiplied by a negative one hundred dollar loss which is 5.22 times 2054.6 plus 94.78 times

[07:33] negative 100 which gives us twelve dollars and forty one cents which is a dollars and forty one cents which is a 12.41 expected value this means Although our chance of winning is smaller our EV for the parlay bet at 12.41 is much

[07:46] greater than the EV we would have gotten if we just placed a single bet which was 5.43 of expected value oddsjam has the latest odds data of many bookmakers across the United States Canada Europe and Australia which means is we can

[08:00] easily find legs for the parlay that are all positive EV and as an added bonus you can get 25 off your first month by one using the link in the description down below and two using the code shane25 at checkout some other things of

[08:13] note is that this is the most basic form of parlay bedding where there's no correlation and all the things are independent from one another there are where you combine different events to happen in the game for example Phoenix

[08:26] Suns to win and Devin bookard to score 20 plus points and here are where anti-correlation it's a lot harder to calculate what the ferrods should be and therefore mathematically what is a good strategy so that's a quick run through

[08:40] of parlay betting give this video a big like down below and subscribe for other money making and sports spending tips and I'll see you guys in the next video