Betfair Trading: Peter Webb of Bet Angel Hosts a Lockdown Livestream

[00:07] i'm just going to do a sound check and make sure that that is the case um so if you can hear me okay if somebody can let me know okay if somebody can let me know and uh and then we will get going

[00:26] all okay i hope everybody's had a good day um i finished i don't know maybe five ten minutes ago just to make sure that everything was okay and i could just skip from one room

[00:39] to the next and um get going from here probably try and do a couple more of these um typically during the winter it's a little bit quieter and

[00:54] that gives me a little bit more capacity during the summer it's completely crazy and it's not possible for me to really spend much time doing anything else but when we move into the winter it just gets a little bit more

[01:07] um easier to do that sort of stuff so i've got some software i'm not using it at this moment in time but i will be giving it another go and uh messing around with a couple of options and seeing what we can achieve

[01:22] and i i sort of find this format quite handy because across on the video that it's actually quite difficult at times to be able to reply to all of them in a timely manner

[01:36] comments you reply to those comments and it sort of trundles on so i'm thinking a live stream may actually be a thinking a live stream may actually be a useful way of answering a few questions

[01:49] the um casper says when's the office tour have um done a couple of little bits uh to test out how i should do that but you're only this is a different room today this is

[02:03] effectively the boardroom my son sits here at the moment whoops and um yeah like the desk that you normally see me located that is out the lowest we've got some more facilities uh you've often seen me

[02:16] standing next to the book case that's where the big tv and other stuff is in the sofas and then we've got a boardroom here as well everybody's in lockdown and nobody's coming at the moment

[02:28] so my son has occupied this part of the boardroom at this particular moment in

[02:43] questions we've got coming up here somebody asking if um would consider that i think it needs to be more interactive though probably needs two or

[02:55] three people involved in that um always the problem that i have is um that me it's the i'm quite interested in trying

[03:10] there but i tend to find sort of uh or getting all of that struggle i have every week so during the summer it's incredibly little bit easier to be able to spend some time uh doing

[03:25] hopefully you'll get to see a lot more uh coming out and we will play around with this format as well to get a handle on if we can improve think maybe somebody interviewing me or discussing

[03:40] topics with me may be an interesting way to take it because then they can ask questions and dig a little bit deeper on certain points rather than just have a sort of one-way conversation as it were

[03:57] 156 version lots i've been using it today actually so we've been playing around with the prototype at the moment to cross check it and make and that there are no bugs that we are aware of so i've actually been using it

[04:11] you find out what's in there it's uh we're always looking to introduce new introduce steps to get to the next level as well so um keep around be an early christmas present for you i

[04:25] be an early christmas present for you i should imagine a few questions coming in here on the live chat

[04:41] but i do actually have some questions that people came in and asked for up and uh we're going to answer some of those questions directly and it's interesting because very often

[04:54] similar sort of questions and you know one of the the one that was most liked from the comments uh on the video that was a precursor to this was uh in your opinion what's the biggest influence

[05:07] on price of any horse in your opinion what factors provoke price movements and so on and so forth and um always it's a i think it's probably the most common question um that i get asked is you know

[05:23] what causes the price of a horse to move but you've got to answer this there's never one particular factor um one particular factor um when you look at the way that racing

[05:38] develops there was a good example today in the betfair chase um bristol de mai when you look at its form stats likes heavy ground so when i looked at that race today i was thinking there are a number of

[05:52] factors that could lead me to do a trade on that particular race it's a good example of this actually and when you look at the form you could see that most of the times that that horse has placed or won

[06:04] has been on heavy ground or soft ground and as a consequence you can look at that and you can sort of say well this horse if if the rain comes then it's probably more likely that that

[06:16] particular runner will be backed but then you run into this problem of um is that already priced into the market are we actually seeing that that activity is specifically

[06:29] into the market already how do we know that because you're looking at all of there are only five today which makes it quite a nice market to give as an example it's a bit easier with five runners

[06:41] but you can actually see uh how it is beginning to discount that the market is discounting it because actually when today the price was sort of gently drifting a little bit

[06:54] but in the last period before the race started then the price did eventually come back in so regardless of whatever process you're using to forecast that you really have to look specifically

[07:08] particular moment in time so most of uh whatever you discount or however you try and look at stuff fundamentally speaking especially on racing that's pre-op racing is an opinion based type

[07:22] you have to look at that and you have to sort of say regardless of whatever research or process i've ever done what actually is the market telling you what are people actually doing within the market

[07:35] aspect of it all as well so the problem that we had today you probably saw me moaning on twitter i moan on twitter all of the time was that there were lots of races today so the problem that we had today is

[07:47] then and they're all bunching up next to each other and we had lingfield that was basically just in front of um heydog the later that um lingfield went off the less time we had

[08:03] for all of the real money to arrive at haydock and that was a bit of a pain that was a bit of a problem um in terms of it wasn't really what people were doing all of that activity

[08:18] activity was sort of um compressed it was sort of into the final few minutes before the start of the race when loads of money and that was quite likely to change your

[08:30] what was likely to happen so it was really when you're pre-off uh trading racing pre-off you're predominantly trying to just understand where that that that flow is

[08:43] um it doesn't matter what sort of information that you look at um you have to be careful not to use that to justify a position so you this is somebody came to see me once he was a

[08:57] he was interested in trading so i sat down with him and showed him a trade and what actually happened was he was going oh why are you backing that and i think it's going to be backed and he gave me this long list of reasons

[09:11] rest i'm going regardless of all of those wonderful reasons that you've everybody's backing it and he's going well i would lay and it's like no no it's going to win the race but we're not concerned with that

[09:24] the opinion of the market at this moment in time so predominantly you know when i'm looking um at the ladders i'm looking to form a true opinion

[09:38] form a true opinion so regardless of whatever you think then you have to trust what you see in front of you what the market is predominantly showing you so if you see something being heavily

[09:51] backed you will see that some money comes into the market the price sort of tends to wobble around a little bit um and then the can see that there's pressure on the price to come down

[10:05] and then you see it do it again and then it wobbles around a bit and again okay you know people are backings people people like this and then when that activity starts to dry up when it gets weak and weaker

[10:17] enough and then the price is going to be heading back in the other direction so you have to be you know you have to look for indications as to with some sort of idea as to how you think the market could

[10:31] looking for evidence that that is actually the case because it could have been perfectly possible to make a correct judgment today on the fact that who was going to win the betfair chase and that bristol de

[10:44] probably perform better today but ultimately it what was the market doing at that particular moment in time was it seeing evidence that people are really going for that story or not

[10:58] so you need to join in those two bits of of information trying to remember i can't remember which race it was on i the graph of my head straight away but it was incredibly heavily backed and

[11:12] i and it came all the way from sort of 15s 20s all the way down 15s 20s all the way down to odds of three and at that point well okay you know the trade here is not

[11:24] because i can see that all of the activity has stopped but i would expect the price to start heading back up again into the market and as the price started to head up they

[11:37] and they kept on pulling it back down towards three so i ended up i probably owned a small amount but to all intents and purposes is zero and

[11:49] high price to a much lower one but i figured out i'd already missed the move already and i was looking for the price to rebound in the other direction but the fact it didn't happen so you have to be careful about

[12:02] extrapolating trends you have to be careful about extrapolating information and it you have to set up a series of things that you want to see before you would actively trade

[12:14] have to um understand if what you're seeing um is what is actually or what you think is going to occur is actually occurring because too many people pin their hopes on some

[12:29] system some process or whatever and then rather than seeing something that they just plow on ahead and sort of i can assure you the market knows everything even stuff that you don't

[12:43] know and that may transpire at some point after the event has settled um so you have to trust the market you well you know what this is what i thought isn't happening so

[12:56] i'll change what i'm doing but my advice to you is that you go into a market with a particular setup you look for evidence of that and if that doesn't exist then you you abandon that trade or you wait for

[13:09] suddenly change your opinion because it's very hard thing to do your opinion on what you're looking for and what you're doing probably end up on the wrong side of that so it's much much better

[13:23] to come up with a list of things um that you're looking for and then actively participate on that market so i didn't actually get a decent result from chase today but i

[13:36] money for bristol to my um as we approached post time which we did see but the problem that you know i sort of got that right i could see that that was happening within the market but the

[13:50] problem that we had was lingfield only had three runners loaded uh in the the feature and as a consequence i decent money in to the haydock market because my concern

[14:03] uh in a market that isn't flowing fully is that if you make a mistake you can't get out or you can't get out without taking a decent loss so that's part of my entry criteria is

[14:17] liquidity there because if the liquidity is there and you make a mistake you can dump your order and you can do it at the current price in a liquid market and you make a mistake then you're going to be

[14:29] scrambling around to try and exit your trade and you won't be the price out against you which makes the trade worse you're going to lose money and it all goes horribly wrong so in my little criteria of things that

[14:41] i need to be able to trade confidently one of them is liquidity not volume but liquidity the amount of money that's getting matched per second because that wrong i can just go you know what i've messed

[14:53] and then you move on to the next market so the problem i had at the betfair that was one of my worst results of the day was that that just market mood and feeling and the structure right

[15:07] but it was too late for me to do anything serious on that and so i just didn't really push it and as a result i didn't really get much from that race um but we have lingfield to thank for that so thank you lingfield for messing

[15:20] uh but actually i did all right overall today uh the i did better than i imagined i would do today any uh follow-up on what i've just been talking about there

[15:44] between bet angel and and other products that huge uh difference between what you see in bet angel automation we're constantly updating bet angel so probably changed between this and next year but

[15:58] evaluating software is just download a trial of bet angel we've got two versions one sort of is got all of your basic trading features and the second has all of the all singing all dancing

[16:12] take the kids to school and do everything for you so it's better that experience that and i think the problem that you have with that angel pro is there is a lot of stuff in there and it will take a bit of

[16:25] the effort is my advice angel um we're we're at the final prototyping

[16:40] fairly soon i can't confirm when because we don't know at the moment api no i don't um the we have looked at it

[16:58] point in the future but at this moment in time we don't

[17:13] uh yeah they should do well the betfair graphs have been broken for some i tend not to use them i'll look at them to get an idea of a longer-term trend and situation

[17:27] a longer-term trend and situation but specifically i don't tend to really go into great depth on them i tend to use the potential advanced charts and that's not a pitch that's what i tend to do because they

[17:40] have more granularity and they're more relevant as well

[17:52] question no questions are rubbish if you're uh if you're starting out lee if there's a preference to back or lay first with regards to liability and the reason i picked up on this question is this is

[18:05] a common mistake that people make because they've got small banks they taking a higher liability on the trade first but my you have to totally ignore that focus on the trade

[18:20] to trade at the stake levels at which you're putting into the market um but ignore any of the liability stuff i'd be interested to see what the camera looks like on this because i have alternative software

[18:33] that will bring across i think a slightly higher resolution image but we may try that on the next live stream stream let's have a quick look here

[18:51] here he's saying uh as you know you must have an entry have there been times when you're at a loss and you think it will go the other and it doesn't or do you stick to plan and exit generally speaking and as if

[19:04] really really strong evidence that a position is about to completely reverse position is about to completely reverse um i will just basically actively

[19:17] doesn't work out i will exit it to the the best that i can so even if that's at a loss i prefer just to say well you know what another opportunity that's the way that i prefer to do it

[19:29] the problem that you have if you try and reverse your position is again i'm always warning people of this it's very important that you don't let the because if you feel that the market is forcing your hand then you lose control

[19:41] of your trade so i'm much more likely in a position that if it's going wrong a position that if it's going wrong i will just basically just not do it i will sort of stop and exit the trade as best as i can and then

[19:54] go again if i can find an opportunity if you try and flip your position then you started with and you're very likely to make a bad judgment so to make a bad judgment so that's typically not how i would trade

[20:12] when punt has led back on course i don't know is the honest answer because i'm not sure what i've seen without them there um immediately after we came out of lockdown there was a huge spike in

[20:25] volume and liquidity within the markets but that sort of slowly started to fade the markets now are probably a little bit weaker than they were at this time last year so i'm sort of thinking it you know

[20:38] at the big events i can tell that market because if you get a loaf 30 000 drunk people at and a bit of a gamble developing within the market you know they

[20:53] driven by the activity on the day the crowds but we haven't had that benefit this year so royal ascot this year interesting it didn't nothing you know there was no oomph in

[21:09] the market um but there does seem to have been a of thinking if crowds go back will it start to lift but of course the midweek racing never see any crowds anyway a crowd at

[21:23] wolverhampton is is two men and a dog but at an ascot or some of these major significantly benefit from having a crowd i would think so yeah swings and roundabouts really uh the lack of crowds hasn't affected

[21:37] there's generally a lack of crowds anyway but maybe during the bigger meetings it may have been significantly more beneficial

[21:57] says the biggest problem uh is me getting twitchy at every tick the my advice to you on that because this this is what happens to a lot of people so if you i remember experiencing this i

[22:10] must be good 15 years ago now where i was talking to people about the philosophy that you needed for a longer term investment and the problem that you have especially

[22:23] and the stock market and foreign exchange markets and bitcoin and all of these things is that everybody is looking at the and you know they're consistently checking the price every five seconds

[22:36] good and bad experiences you get consistently and as a consequence one of the issues that you have is that they constantly is forcing you to reappraise your

[22:49] so it's typically better just to close your eyes almost in uh this was the thing that i learned if you invest in shares you don't really care about what's happening in the long

[23:03] in the short term you're more worried about a longer term time period so one of the things that i would often suggest to newbie traders is rather than getting it refreshing at 20 milliseconds maybe get it to refresh every second and

[23:15] a little bit more comfortable just look at a slightly longer term the strategy that you're trying to deploy but widening your time scale will reassure you that in fact you know the

[23:28] isn't always going to go against you sometimes it will go for you about it so i firmly believe that the amount of profit and losses within the market are limited by the shape of the market

[23:44] once you understand that and you understand that this this is the average sort of range that you've got and the price is going to bounce up and down within that range your role really is to decide where you

[23:57] are within that range try and take positions that work more within that particular range so you know if you see the price moving up off of the bottom of a range you're sort of thinking well is it gonna ever break

[24:09] uh the bottom again so when you watch me on a lot of the videos you see me sort of quite relaxed about positions that i've got and by spreading out is i'm sort of padding out my entry point and my exit point and

[24:23] about the trade because i know that all of the whipsawing that the market does will actually work in my favor and not utterly reliant upon the price moving one tick above or below where you are

[24:38] panic you and force you to push you out of that position within the yeah trying to expand your time scales one of the earliest experiments i did was i just sort of backed or laid sort of randomly or to some

[24:52] defined criteria and then just watched the market and that does this which i will upload in the next two or three weeks um to try and teach you to how to think about

[25:06] term and how that influences things longer term so it's important to come to terms of that and you'll realize that in fact you generally don't have much to be

[25:18] afraid of if you're doing roughly the right thing and it's all more about how that trade will play out given a number of scenarios rather than tiny little movements that you get i'd say that the market whipsawing is

[25:30] the thing that catches the vast majority of people out

[25:49] i'm glad that somebody has um pointed that out as bushy park was the other day and one of course

[26:16] do another live stream soon and i'll fix that um i'll use some native streaming rather than what i've got here which isn't native streaming but i'll check it afterwards we'll check and see what the quality is like

[26:44] be available at a later date to answer a couple of questions here hello joe for once i'm on uk time recently but uh

[26:59] a live stream at a different time of the day to include people in australia day to include people in australia that may be an option actually

[27:11] opinion that a book is something you write at the end of your career so there's still stuff that i learn and i'm still setting new records i'm still setting new records so i've busted a few records in recent

[27:24] on the up it doesn't feel like i'm at the stage learn but it's probably something that i will about finding the time to do it takes a lot of

[27:38] effort and time to do that and i have tried to document stuff um as difficult to put it into a format that's publishable but that will happen at some point i should imagine

[27:53] here um there have been a lot of people closed for one reason or another i have written a blog post on this with all the reasons that betfair could possibly do this and there are

[28:06] but if you do find yourself in that position you can appeal and if as long as you haven't done anything stupid then don't know why i'm seeing a lot more of these all of a sudden but i have written

[28:18] a blog post about it so i will park that comment and you can read in the blog post all my thoughts about that and the way that it's managed but it's normally to do with um either calling the api too frequently and not

[28:31] placing enough bets um or some variant therein or thereof of other day that somehow had placed 150 million transactions on their account and but had done very little activity

[28:47] we're speaking to betfair to figure out uh how that is possible but they seem to be picking off some of these outlying accounts have a read of that and we can cover that in more depth

[29:16] without going via settings you can do that already i don't know um i'll follow up on that at some point terms of adding and removing stuff really quickly

[29:28] if you right click you'll find that you can spawn additional ladders on if that's what you're looking for if you may want to check it out

[29:40] um callum's talking about betfair pulling out of new jersey uh my take on i actually predicted that they would pull out of new jersey because betfair have never really gone for it

[29:52] in um the us and one of the issues half-hearted approach so they've never really been able to to grow significantly there i actually offered to try and help them

[30:06] in terms of i would be willing while i was over in the u.s to go and talk to people and stuff or do but that they never took me up on that and um they never really put their foot down in

[30:19] group you have a huge present in the us i that they would they they thought the exchange was a bit of a thorn in the side and because it was so small they could justify just you know pushing

[30:33] elements of the business that were more important this is one of the disadvantages of being a large corporation is that those things happen i've in my former life i've been on the

[30:46] thick end of that so the problem is it's the corporate imperative overruling sort of what would make sense so i think other going to step into their shoes

[30:58] so yeah we're going to keep an eye on that for you i'm just going to quickly look at the um most like questions again

[31:13] and make sure i work down that list but there have been a few questions on automation and manual trading so i'm going to answer some of those let me just have a quick check

[31:29] here so let's answer a couple of those questions now when you look at manual and automated trading

[31:41] know as a completely manual trader and manually trade so i was doing that today but i also have

[31:53] well so it's supplemental to me i find that both things work particularly well and when people say what percentage of manual those is

[32:06] automated it's sort of not a fair question really because obviously when front of your computer and you have to sit there and things but when you do automation you don't

[32:19] runs pretty much 24 7 for me and there's while i'm sat here um talking to you i could just hear at the corner of my ear my automation reporting on uh what's

[32:34] going on at wolverhampton so just made a loss on that last race at wolverhampton and i'm sort of reaching to go and see what it was but because automation can run 24 7 automation is always going to yield much

[32:47] more than you can trade manually and that's just a function of its scale and scope so you can't sort of really pin a figure that there are two different ways of operating

[33:00] but i think the interesting thing about automation is you will probably discover you're doing manually because automation for me started out as a sort of a test bed we're going back a long way here because

[33:13] we put excel in an excel link into bet angel maybe six months after we first created it and that was my early bits of data used it for but what you tend to do is you tend to

[33:27] run experiments that test certain aspects of the market and then that develops into automation of its own but it also automation of its own but it also can end up being um you know something

[33:40] well because you may discover something that you hadn't particularly seen or been aware of before but um you can end up in completely opposite ends of the spectrum so

[33:52] when i start with a simple strategy i'll sort of branch it out so i'll do one and i'll create a modification of it that does something else and then they often

[34:04] so i've got some automation that just sits and waits for the perfect moment before it does something and some that just throws a few orders in the market and carefully manages those things but there are two totally

[34:17] opposite ends of the spectrum but generally the process for creating automation probably starts manually you've got an idea you test the idea within the market you automate a small part of it and then

[34:31] that lifts and starts to operate on its own and then you sort of take it forward from there but the the way that we approach it from a product perspective is that if you're

[34:44] manually then you can probably improve your trading by introducing something like a servant so by introducing semi-automation so by introducing semi-automation um so for example if i'm trading very

[34:57] actively and on a market that's very busy if i click manually and the order hits the market then if you introduce a to qualify that particular trade there may be certain little things that you

[35:11] such as checking the exact moment which you hit the market and the condition of the market at that point that you can do a lot better if you apply that trade with a servant and if you do that then you'll get a

[35:25] into the market or out it can take you out of a position in the same way you're only a little step away from actually being able to fully automate it so you gradually progress and develop

[35:38] on its own but i'll have stuff running consistently so this evening at while i'm chatting to you here i've got four four bits of automation running all doing slightly different things and sometimes you discover stuff

[35:52] that you would never do otherwise so i created some automation once that did completely the wrong thing i accidentally applied it to a market and five or six markets after i you know finally discovered that it was

[36:05] doing completely the wrong thing it had made a profit and i was thinking that doesn't make any sense so i have now named it the strategy that should and it now runs uh permanently doing stuff that really should not work

[36:19] just a complete accident that i discovered it um and that just runs uh constantly and it runs day and night because it does well so i think as part of your mix it's

[36:33] helpful because the thing that you benefit from if you semi-automate you can do very precise trades and get very good if you fully automate then you scrub away all the emotion the ambiguity

[36:47] and you just get pure feedback from the market you can't sort of well i really should have done that but the automation is a very useful way quality feedback from the market that will give you really good guidance

[37:02] and you can use that to develop further the automation you've done or to influence how you trade manually it's very useful way of progressing um obviously the automation side of potential has improved dramatically over

[37:14] and that has helped take my trading up another level as well shouldn't necessarily look at even if you don't use it directly a way of using it to beneficially help you

[37:36] today um in in i had a friend who lived in san diego so i have explored tijuana and baja california and all of that region extensively

[37:50] extensively so yeah and betfair is legal but you cross the border and isn't

[38:03] a few questions here asking about if i'm doing crypto currencies generally not um simply because they're too volatile

[38:15] value to them it doesn't mean that i'm not going to do anything in the future but i'm able to do them by proxy anyway so i have done a video actually on bitcoin where i was talking about how i

[38:28] took advantage of that opportunity so you may want to watch that one

[38:55] what would you do if you're a ceo of flutter to increase market volume on the i would split out the exchange because the problem is when you imperative and the exchange for me is a disruptor

[39:09] or it should be a disruptor and it was there to change the landscape whereas the problem that i think we've had in recent years is that that has not really

[39:21] particularly been the case um we've sort of slipped backwards a bit that of slipped backwards a bit that initial drive has gone so if i was ceo betfair flutter whatever you want to call them split out the exchange make a

[39:33] live or die on its own make it the disrupter that it once was sort of more or less is why do i bother with the software um

[39:47] if if i'm making money trading it's a very common question that i get asked i make a lot of money trading much more than i think people would imagine and the software was created to trade so we had to back when i

[40:02] started first of all the software no software trade and that has developed on its own path since then but trading is still very much the reason that i turn up every day

[40:15] to do stuff and that comes first that has priority over everything else combine win place markets and stuff like that simply

[40:29] by the wind market and there's not enough liquidity not for me anyway in some of the smaller markets so i don't tend to don't tend to do that much on there

[40:47] joe says have you ever noticed some stable gambles the funny thing is i had this discussion with it with a bet angel usually the little messages saying uh i noticed your comments on this and

[41:01] that uh and he said this is a yard that i watched consistently but i think that than me i've done the analysis but i can't particularly spot it that well but i know that some

[41:15] people do trade like that but it's i tend to just look for evidence point so i see a gamble point so i see a gamble and i don't try and predict it

[41:29] wolverhampton race so thank you paul you probably created the thank you paul you probably created the loss for me the difference between bet angel and and other software um it is

[41:43] substantial and over time it's getting wider but should be devoted to asking questions around trading and not specifically the um i can do a video maybe i should do a live stream talking about the software

[41:57] i think that may be a good thing to do perhaps perhaps we've got lots of questions coming in

[42:17] question which i i will address um but in fact there's a couple of uh which probably prompted by me talking about automation and the questions go how simple is the automation how many rules per strategy how simple is it

[42:31] and all of these sort of things i'm just going to cross check the going to cross check the questions that came in earlier to see if there were similar questions there

[42:45] so i'll try and broaden the answer out to cover all of those things if you look at um so go on to the the forum different bits of automation and when you look at all

[43:00] of these different bits of automation they all perform very specific things the market so the concept of providing those templates those templates and all of those

[43:13] examples is that they all perform specific functions within the market so if you run one of those bots across every single market what you will find is that some of you

[43:27] know it works in some markets and not other markets but the idea there are for you to take those templates and deploy them into a strategy that you create because your

[43:40] role as a trader really is to identify a market where you will a strategy that's your key role um if you so if we look at the betfair at 264 somewhere around there but if you look

[43:56] were very different there were some very low there were some maidens there were some unraced horses there were some horses that were maidens but it raced frequently

[44:09] so each one of those races is going to exhibit a different characteristic and when i looked at the football today there were some matches that were going goals and your role as a trader really is to

[44:22] put the correct strategy and that could be into the correct market so you should actually like have a suite of strategies and then you deploy them differently according to what you expect

[44:36] if you try and apply probably the hardest thing to do is to apply a generic strategy that just generally prints money i know there are loads of promise you that but as a professional trader i can tell

[44:50] that the way that the market works is every single scenario is slightly differently but they do have sort of repeating patterns so if i look at a race that's going to take place tomorrow

[45:03] liquidity in there i can tell you pretty much how that race is likely to trade now because we're sort of 12 24 hours out from when that race is going to take place my judgment will be quite broad but as

[45:18] the race i will get more and more certain about likely to happen um but you can make a card of racing i can tell you pretty much how the day

[45:30] is likely to trade most of the early races tend to be made in some novices move into the middle of the day you get more competitive handicaps and at this so each one of those races is going to trade slightly differently

[45:45] so it's never a question of saying that one thing is more effective than another your role as a trader is to actually deploy the correct strategy in to the market to make it work so if you look at the way that i traded today

[45:57] approached slightly differently they all have different characteristics and i would adjust for that um but also in the example i gave you with the i sort of knew what was going to happen but i couldn't do anything so

[46:11] things from there but if you think about the way that the automation works um it's very beneficial uh it can look at 50 times a second whereas you can probably react in

[46:24] probably react in one or two tenths of a second and so enhance your trading to improve the quality of the entry of the exit or is hugely beneficial so the way i could tell you that i'd

[46:38] lost at that race at wolverhampton because the automation played a noise so i can actually tell what it's doing even while i'm sat here if it thinks i need to intervene and the alarm goes off i will dash off and run over there to

[46:52] but i'm hoping that during the live stream everything is nice and calm and it just reports an endless stream of profits but not on that last race it would appear um in terms of how simple or complex the

[47:06] best things and this is uh goes to some of the comments that arrived prior to the live stream uh people underestimate how doing simple things really well works so effectively because ultimately

[47:23] if you can um pursue a strategy that is quite simple then you can refine it a little bit further or execute it slightly better

[47:35] or find opportunities and be more confident about those opportunities so i think there is a tendency sometimes to overcomplicate trades and football people are sort of saying well if this then that

[47:47] and then if the moon is in conjunction with uranus no it's it's you know that's far too complicated and half of so you have to drill it down to a very simple

[48:02] set of rules and then you can sort of layer stuff on top of that to make it execution of those uh situations so yeah you can what tends come up with a simple rule so you you start with something that

[48:17] says at this moment do the following and and that is your initial rule and then you sort of say well at this moment subject to that subject to that do this but maybe you know adjust for this

[48:31] particular characteristic and as a consequence simple rules can sort of grow arms and become a little bit more deeper but most of that is you know just refining it so

[48:44] every single strategy that i've ever done that i've ever started with has this is what i want to achieve and this is how i want to create a profit depth all of those things and i look to see

[49:00] where it went wrong and you know you find that when you do that it generates lots of profits anyway but it also generates lots of losses so my primary focus there is to try and enhance the profitability

[49:12] by reducing some of the losses so there may be certain markets whether it's football tennis racing anything where it consistently seems to struggle therefore i'll either amend the automation to minimize that

[49:25] or i just won't put it on those markets and then by default you automatically start to make it profitable so yeah you know you need you probably want to tweak and refine and

[49:37] to another level so it doesn't have to be but sometimes you do end up with stuff that you know actively doing it but you know things that i'm

[49:52] structure of the market trying to understand how that's going to influence what happens within the market and then the automation may or may not do that market or adjust its behavior based upon what it like what it's likely to see so

[50:06] can refine specifically in there that just generally improve the yield over a bit of time because i sort of just answered this do you have different strategies for

[50:18] yes and um because i've just answered that if you um if you look at the way that everything is structured

[50:30] if you think about it logically if you get a very competitive handicap race then the so look at the new market cambridgeshire for example that we had not so long ago massive field 30 runners or so

[50:45] um all of them sort of equally weighted and of the they've been adjusted for that according to the weights market knows you know that there is really a strong

[51:00] so the market sort of flip-flops and meanders around all over the place and it doesn't really have any firm direction that's what you'd expect in a market like a new market cambridge now if we go to a

[51:14] um that is a maiden for example where there are no horses that have been raced before but the word on the street is that the favorite has come from a good bloodline and it's trained well

[51:27] and all of these sort of things then you may see a little bit of a gamble develop develop on it they look at the form line they think something and therefore it extends from there so

[51:41] individual markets should reflect that if you can understand a little bit about racing and the structure of the market that market should behave but you know if you have a competitive

[51:53] handicapper wolfhampton uh on a thursday evening you'll probably week but a different one's going to win this that market is going to behave very differently from a much higher quality

[52:06] again but you shouldn't necessarily adjust things so i can tell you for example the automation that's running this down because it's wolverhampton on saturday evening

[52:19] and i know that those markets will be weak so one way of managing the risk on so if it's after a certain time of the day or you know saturday evening i just know the

[52:34] market's going to be weak tomorrow being sunday um the number the markets is much lower than a saturday so it based upon the fact that it's a sunday lower volume means it's easier for

[52:47] prices to move which makes the market a little bit more volatile i've had quite a lot of questions about football index um

[53:00] football index um i've heard about it and um slightly here so i'm just going to scroll back for a second

[53:17] scroll back for a second here we go yeah people have asked about um football index i'm not active on football index buy and sell players but you also get a yield so it's a very

[53:31] it's sort of more similar to an investment model in terms of but um i haven't really done much on authoritatively on that

[53:53] the background while you concentrate on one thing the latter so i tend to put automation on something and the important thing is don't interfere when you do any automation even if it's

[54:07] the problem you will have when you automation running anything what's it doing and um the the overwhelming temptation is to jump in and press a button but you've got to let it run you've got to let it

[54:22] complete autonomy so i will let something wrong last week's data i will make any modifications or tweaks that i think are necessary and then i will let it run for another

[54:35] that didn't work that did work and then tweak it again there was a question um that came in on the video that i did prior to this on the comments is the word i was looking for

[54:48] that uh was sort of asking um a similar sort of question in fact let me just see if i can find it

[55:14] for the split moment there that i've remembered what it was i've gone search searching for such as life um there have been quite a few questions and i spotted a few looking at that list um about emotional

[55:29] and trying to cope with losses the thing to remember and there was a somebody was saying um you know i've seen somebody posted an endless string of prophets

[55:42] um on in play um and the thing to remember about in play is that say you lay something at six it's got an 83 percent chance of that bet um actually being successful because

[55:56] you're laying at relatively large odds that represents that represents 16 70 chance of that overall going to significantly bump up uh your overall strike rate you can

[56:10] if you choose a strategy that has a very high strike rate you can do the same think about it when you're trading pre-off this is the average range within the market if you go for a one-tick gain within that range

[56:23] of that um and as a consequence if you're going for a profit this this big in a range that is that wide then you're going to naturally have a high strike frame

[56:36] with is the loss when it goes wrong so in my manual training all the automation i'm primarily interested in uh what is the potential for loss that's the thing that i search for straight

[56:51] automation i let it loose um it goes off and there's all of this stuff but if it wins very very frequently i'm disappointed because i'm actually interested in what is the potential for loss so if you

[57:04] have a very large traded range and you're going for a small profit you will always get a higher strike rate so if we go for a one tick profit large potential profit but when you're looking

[57:16] at um pre-off trading you're going to have a range like this but when you're doing in play it's going to be that big you've got 450 ticks from 101 to 1000. market where you know if you look at a horse race in plane

[57:31] excluding dead heats and so on and then the is going to be significant it's already going to have an 83 chance of going to be a large number of ticks above it so you will win very frequently

[57:46] profitable because your profit overall will be determined by the losses and how big they are when those losses come in so the advantage with pre-off trading is that even if you trade

[57:58] at random it's going to be roughly 50 50. you have to trade within that frame and that frame will define your long-term positive expectancy so that's why i always prefer pre-op trading because

[58:12] you potentially have you'll get a 50-50 strike rate but if you lay something in running at strike right and if you offset it by a few ticks you're going to be up in the

[58:26] you know 98.99 i've done a video on it um i should probably link to that video um i should probably link to that video um to give you a full explanation yeah because i have spent 10 15 minutes doing that so yeah

[58:39] becomes result dependent whereas pre-off it's result independent it doesn't matter what happens in the underlying event those sort of trades simply because the potential for profit

[58:56] is fairly balanced with the potential for loss can we um make potential uh compatible with the

[59:09] orbit exchange we can't uh it will not be allowed so we're uh it will not be allowed so we're unable to do that unfortunately

[59:33] seems to have deteriorated since they stopped using flash yeah a lot of people have said this this sort of goes um in hand with sort of goes um in hand with what do i use um i tend to go off of

[59:45] sky and watch racing uk and sky sports racing critical for me doing pre-op stuff as it is for people who are attempting to do stuff in play so i sort of sympathize with the

[59:58] problems that you have there um i have spoken to betfair about it but um i have no perception of if that's going to change or what they're going to do about it but um yeah my sympathies with you

[1:00:11] with the better fair life video and you would think now in this day and that you would have a much better quality stream and much faster um i have been sort of campaigning and lobbying for that

[1:00:25] but where we go with that i don't know at this particular moment in time incredible it will probably be uh the biggest market i've ever traded in terms of either the market turnover

[1:00:39] or the amount of money that i put through it um so i'm stuck really because it would be nice if they would settle it and i can it but it would be great if it just goes on for a bit longer just push it a

[1:00:51] little bit higher but um yeah what a fascinating market that is consider in play much more risky yes yes i do um again

[1:01:07] if you're approaching it correctly and you're being selective about what you do then there's no reason why you couldn't do it i have a tendency to automate all of the stuff that i don't play there is i'm going to put some stuff up

[1:01:19] which you will see over the course of the winter that will bear fruit on that but um if like i said you've got to make

[1:01:31] trading sort of result independent if you can because if you end up making it result dependent in one form or another above or below the line um then it's more of a gamble than a trade

[1:01:44] but i will do it but i tend to do it in a very i'm looking for situations so typically in play most of my in-play automation loses money fairly frequently but gets the

[1:01:58] occasional massive win and some of you would have spotted um i can't remember what it was but there was i managed to grab something at 1 000 for and that happens infrequently but when it happens that

[1:02:11] of the potential losses that it's going to make looking for that opportunity and that's typically what i would tend to do in play um well but the problem is so can people who are on the course

[1:02:24] of me and that's that's a big issue that i have for that

[1:02:39] and um we the i've had quite a few um queries about academy because i'm actively trading it's harder for me to

[1:02:52] especially at the moment we're unable to run courses here simply because government guidelines say that we can't and the during the winter we are going to upgrade some of the stuff

[1:03:05] on the academy as well and just give it a bit of a refresh because um summer when i'm just full-on trading so we are of content on there um you know do i experiment with doing some

[1:03:20] some stuff online and maybe doing a couple of individual sort of mini seminars as it were um i may give that a try but the problem that you're always going to have with me is that i will always be trading

[1:03:34] you're always going to find it much harder to have a conversation with me or correspondence simply because that's the priority and needs to be run as well

[1:03:46] harder for me to be able to do that but it's all it's that classic need to get the information from are the people who are least available because they're actually doing it um so it's it's tough from that

[1:03:58] but because of um lockdown i've we've been pursuing or looking at avenues to content online if we can um but there will naturally always be a limit to sort of what i what i can do but you know i'm busy

[1:04:12] get my opinion on there and i'll chip in on conversations where and i'll chip in on conversations where i think i can add some value there

[1:04:36] of ticks if you there's a video that i did on in playing pre-op and it that it's on that video um and there's quite a bit of detail on there if you want uh some more information on that

[1:04:55] markets which is similar to uk irish racing um in play both liquid and fast racing um in play both liquid and fast price movements um the interesting thing is that uh when i when i've been heading to the u.s

[1:05:08] picture of it maybe i'll stick it on the vlog at some point vlog at some point but i was in a bar in lafayette which is east of san francisco and i went down to the bar to have something to eat one

[1:05:20] evening and they had nba on there so i just sort of quickly flicked up the and it was it was very interesting to watch those markets and it was very liquidity there don't know what it's like now um but

[1:05:33] some of those markets um are quite fascinating it's just a shame that they're not at the same level that they would be if betfair was legal in um and obviously because they're in a different time zone that is what is

[1:05:45] markets but if you look at you know one of the interested in recently is darts because darts is sort of like tennis really in terms of the way that it trades and you can apply the same

[1:05:58] um and the liquidity on darts has been growing recently which is which is interesting so i've been quite fascinated by that

[1:06:13] saying what is the big advantage of using bet for manual trading over just using betfam manually um they're using a product like potential um it's very

[1:06:29] difficult to trade manually um against people that have a much bigger sort of arsenal of weapons effectively so my advice to you would be to use any software really um

[1:06:41] if you're because you will be able to enhance your trading if you um enhance your trading if you um if you do that

[1:06:59] that's um at wolverhampton that was just my apple watch pinging at that particular point

[1:07:15] restrictions so if if you are using automation to test a strategy and you don't um place enough bets on the betfair exchange then they may pull you up for basically reading data

[1:07:28] without actually doing anything um betfair will not give us any are but i would imagine the threshold is quite low based upon my experience with that change customers as long as you're

[1:07:40] doing something that's the probably the most important thing that you can do rather than just reading information off your account would get suspended but i can assure you even if you do

[1:07:52] you're really more or less going to break even minus commission is so you have got nothing to fear about that i actually run some automation that in the market at regular intervals and then outputs

[1:08:08] the results to me and i do that because i'm interested in the fill rate and i've long period of time it doesn't really do a great deal but that account has never a great deal but that account has never been suspended

[1:08:34] valued member of our team um he was a bet angel user uh it the forum and um and helps us out fairly significantly so yeah it's uh he is a betfair

[1:08:50] user first then became a betfair customer and is now part of our team

[1:09:02] actually shane just asked a decent accounts um can any given using i have two but now i'm only allowed one if you generate enough commission um and your

[1:09:16] one account but i know that betfair have the number of accounts that they can actively um allow individual users so if you request it or you get in

[1:09:31] contact with the vip team then if your level of activity is high than one account i have more than one account it's a legacy of managed now so it's possible for me to run

[1:09:43] more than one um strategy on the same market on a different account

[1:10:04] of the other um questions in here so give me a couple of seconds to just read those uh one of them is how do i know before the race day starts which horses which horse races are likely to attract

[1:10:17] decent liquidity and uh it's that's quite a good question because if you um there's a video that i do where i search through an individual day i load up guardian

[1:10:29] the races in one particular set of orders and then i examine each of those individual markets but you can sort of what is likely to be the highest liquidity highest

[1:10:45] turnover uh race of the day um simply by looking at uh the prize money effectively if you look at the the biggest race today turned over to remember just short of three million i

[1:10:57] i'm pretty sure i saw a number saying two nine or two eight on the bet fair but you could tell yesterday that that was going to be the biggest race simply prize money now that isn't always the case and that

[1:11:12] is because if you have short prices if the price on the favorite is 2.5 or 1.5 the shorter the price of the the more money gets better on it so if you get this combination of shorter

[1:11:25] and you know the big race of the day you get massive liquidity if you get a really low quality race that's a competitive handicap that will be the lowest turnover rate of the day

[1:11:37] and possibly the hardest to trade because to trade effectively you're so that you can dump a position if you get it wrong that's the key message that i'll give to you there

[1:11:50] um another question or a couple of questions that have come through questions that have come through on a regular basis um profitability of successful manual trading what an eloquently

[1:12:05] asked question so i have sort of touched on this before but i think that there are a different sort of modes of operation there are can do that manual trading can't and they're the only thing that manual

[1:12:17] can do that automation can't but because you've got servants now you can combine the best of both of those words so if you look at um a horse running ring you may not be able to pick that up on

[1:12:33] are things so like i said to you you know if the room um that's automation that's doing that characteristics within the market that tell me that

[1:12:46] can pick up on those things with automation but fundamentally you're looking at a slightly different approach on either of benefits to either of them but can you replicate with automation we

[1:12:59] because i've done it but it was a progressive stage you start with a you automate bits of it and eventually the two join together and then it the two join together and then it becomes a completely automated strategy

[1:13:18] um [Music] which i thought was interesting because i thought most people have missed the

[1:13:31] before because i run a dutching bot basically that's looking for very specific criteria within racing and it does it on greyhounds as well

[1:13:44] you're you're done so here if you're placing a value there you need you know this is the the chance that it is ascribed to of winning that particular event when

[1:13:59] you've got is whenever you're looking at a chance bit of variability above it so sort of saying this is the chance particular range if you cover more than one runner um

[1:14:13] capture that value um and especially you know it could be if you see something that's priced at threes or fours it's still got a fair chance of losing so by broadening your selections when

[1:14:26] dutching that actually allows you to reduce that variability and capture that value so i run value bots but the p l on the value bot is like this it's just going around all over the

[1:14:40] thousands up um at any one particular point in time but by using the dutching as a strategy you tend to okay it rises and falls but the equity curve

[1:14:54] so that i've been able to scale that much faster the limit on that strategy is the amount of money that's in the market

[1:15:08] there have been a few um questions about ai and approached by a few people who um ai experts and they want to try and do stuff and i'm aware that there are people out there doing this

[1:15:23] sort of stuff but the my experience typically with an ai background is they're looking at the markets completely the wrong way information looking at the wrong stuff and they don't particularly have any

[1:15:36] trading background and one of the interesting things i biggest things that i've learned is the is the psychology of it the way that the markets move and breathe and the way that they behave and how

[1:15:49] psychology influences that and i'd say that that's something that's quite difficult to to do with ai and if hey i can do that we're just one step away from it becoming self-aware

[1:16:03] becoming self-aware um but a lot of the people that i've have been going at it from the wrong angle and i'm sort of loathed thinking hold on a second here you're delivering nothing to me

[1:16:15] and i'm giving you everything and it's like not sure that's an equitable trade um but i think where you can see that people are trying to use quite complex strategies is and this ties into some questions that i had as

[1:16:28] people have asked me questions like are the markets harder to read years ago um and the answer is sort of yes and sort no because if you look at the way that markets develop they always change over

[1:16:43] you have to accept that if you're not in the market and actively doing something then you may fall behind it you may find yourself falling out of favor so this is why i spend a lot of time analyzing all of my

[1:16:57] say when i sit down on monday i will look at how i perform this week and i would do given the time of the year but i will compare it to last year and see what happened

[1:17:13] did i perform better or worse and then try and describe and understand how that occurred so you see little subtle changes in the market all of the time so i'm not convinced that they get harder but do they change yes they do

[1:17:28] is it harder for new people to enter the market probably because it's much more doing it but every year brings a slightly different challenge to the mix things just change ever so

[1:17:40] and sometimes that subtle change can throw out a strategy so there was a change in the racing markets 18 months two years ago that knocked out automated strategies it just suddenly

[1:17:52] don't understand what's happened there so go back revisit the data try and what you've seen and then alter the strategy to adjust for that trading perspective you may not get that pure feedback and you therefore you may

[1:18:08] exactly what's going on but the markets change all the time so ahead with it

[1:18:26] we've got more questions piling up here so let me have a quick read of these give me a couple of seconds while i have a quick browse of this

[1:18:47] to two minute window would you prefer last 60 seconds to enter and exit there are strategies you could apply to each of those only going to trade the last 60 seconds

[1:19:00] there um and some of that would be upon within the market so uh you know some of the best markets are the most utterly chaotic you look at the markets the prices flying around all

[1:19:15] over the place it's complete craziness um and you know you would typically find a limited amount of time to do something on it so say the previous race is delayed and you know some new

[1:19:28] just by a coincidence you arrive at this market just as the the way you would trade that would be very different from the way that you 15 minutes out but part of that is to do with the velocity of the money within

[1:19:42] the market so if you're trading a long way out you a bigger move but when you're trading very very close to the off you're looking for a small move but bigger stakes so

[1:19:55] opposite solutions to the same problem so this is one of the reasons why different scenarios um because i have to adapt for every scenario that i see in front of me now if you're beginning if you're

[1:20:10] that because it's all a mystery to you anyway so the looking for that it needs to be five minutes out i'm going to exit a minute out i want the money to be doing this i'm

[1:20:24] looking for this type of trade and if you don't see it you just avoid you see the trade that you're looking for i would approach the market as i turn up to the market and i assess

[1:20:37] what's going on with the market and it's at that point that i specifically decide get money out of the market so it will vary depending upon the and my recommendation when you're starting out is that you define the

[1:20:51] but as you progress and become more confident you'll be able to do the this is what's going to happen and this is what i'm going to do about it

[1:21:15] exchanges are being on the exchange by inserting a directional bias um do you think pre race trading could be classified as arbi there um it is a form of arbing you're just

[1:21:30] the intention of the market over a very short period of time short period of time effectively

[1:21:42] another question right here saying pre off trading on horses is quite difficult off trading on horses is quite difficult and i actually think it depends upon the way that you're actively trading it now i know that i'm experienced

[1:21:55] now i know that i'm experienced and if you look at pre-race trading and if you look at pre-race trading you're gonna be right or wrong 50 50 if you're gonna be right or wrong 50 50 if you just do it completely at random

[1:22:09] of sort of 70 80 but that still means that i'm still getting 20 that i'm still getting 20 of them wrong but i don't look at that baseline there is 50 and i'm exceeding that vastly i think

[1:22:23] pre-race trading wrong is they're looking over too short a time period they have no tolerance to risk so when i've watched people unsuccessfully on racing the issue that i'm seeing is

[1:22:37] they put a position in the market it goes against them and they exit or when in fact the position probably would have worked out already it's just that or the confidence to let that trade mature fully um so

[1:22:52] i consider myself to trade quite passively most of the time i'm looking right in generally the right direction and to me whereas i think most people are too aggressive and they jump in and out

[1:23:05] of the market too frequently and that's the cause of 90 of those losses is that people cut it out when it's gone against them when in fact it the other direction for them at some point in the future the best way

[1:23:18] to overcome that and to overcome that level of ill discipline is to actually put a trade into the market um guess which way it's going to go or consistently put it in one direction and

[1:23:31] then just watch the market unfold and you watch how many times that that trade and you'll realize that what's actually happening is you're cutting the trade out at the wrong time that's all that you're doing and that's often why i

[1:23:43] think people find it find it hard it's it's purely opinion driven the pre-off trading market but whenever you do anything in play it becomes result dependent

[1:23:56] because you know the percentages are higher uh of profits and losses that you're looking at rather than the the win rate because the win rate can be deceptive

[1:24:10] especially if you're doing something in play and also depending upon your target profit as well if you go for a one tick um you're gonna it's gonna be 50 50 but if you're going for a 10 tick profit

[1:24:24] your strike rate is going to drop backwards so it all is totally dependent upon the amount you make when you profit the amount you make when you lose so it's the interplay of those two that is most important

[1:24:41] question here actually and it says um what is the most emotionally um traded market uh special events and politics are the two that are driven uh almost purely by emotion

[1:24:55] producer's cut or whatever and i do trade many different types of markets i think that that's really unusual and quite i already knew about football when i arrived i learned about horse racing

[1:25:11] market and i'm just infinitely fascinated by the way the markets work so it's a progression of strategies and development of time i would recommend that you don't trade

[1:25:26] you'll just get confused and it can distract you you're better off to master one thing maybe one strategy in one type of market got that nailed then broaden out because that's sort of more or less what

[1:25:40] that for 20 years so obviously i have skill sets in so obviously i have skill sets in multiple markets would be helpful for dutching strategies keep your eyes peeled for the next

[1:25:55] edition of bet angel um dan says what's your volume split between manual and bots i have answered that question a bit earlier

[1:26:08] other things uh andy um says how many moves on a daily basis have you yourself influenced people have asked me the interesting thing is my answer is generally not what people would expect

[1:26:21] move is by accident so pressing the wrong key entering at the wrong price i may do that by accident but typically most of my time is spent hiding from the market

[1:26:35] i don't actually want anybody to know where i am and there are many reasons most of my strategy is based upon seeing what other people are doing that's essentially what i do so i get a lot of clues from watching the market

[1:26:48] what the market's doing in front of me because then you may hear it on the there's somebody at 4.5 someone's put a large order i always moved it to 4.3 so either through match to unmatched

[1:27:01] read that information you can get a sense of what positions people have if there's a large market and the position has moved in one direction and then you start to see unmatched money building up you can get a sense of

[1:27:14] where that person is within that particular market if i see a certain level i may go after that price i may start taking i think that it's about to break in one

[1:27:28] direction or another but in terms of my general trading i'm so i believe um quite firmly that i'm not bigger than the market the market will do whatever it wants

[1:27:41] and my role really is to work within it so i try not to influence it i'm always and be less obvious to where i am actively within actively within the market

[1:27:56] tennis which is your next best best markets to trade because it's not saying which is the most profitably saying which is the best

[1:28:08] um it's the probably is fresh in my mind is what i've just done on the us masters golf and i i find golf quite easy to trade um that's the wrong sort of word to use not

[1:28:21] i find it uh the the logical approach to golf i like but the problem with golf is that um i only really trade the four majors those are the only to operate at the level at which i want to operate

[1:28:38] um but i do do a bit of greyhounds but again i've pushed that down the hundreds of races a day but i can only ever yield small results automated i would never sit down and trade

[1:28:52] greyhounds manually apart from the really big races um but yeah when i look at um tennis and football i sort of dip in and out of those as i see appropriate basically um and i do

[1:29:04] liquidity event with a large number of occurrences so driven by the opportunity the liquidity and the

[1:29:16] and do different markets based upon what i see in front of me but that question varies depending upon whether you say most profitable on an individual event basis

[1:29:28] easiest to trade they all vary because football variable results and it's just something that plays out over a long whereas you know the reason for getting involved in horse racing was because

[1:29:41] and i could produce consistent results that would you know that would you know be my bread and butter basically

[1:30:01] i'd be interested knowing the score if you can put it up though questions can you think of a trade which has got you particularly excited as it

[1:30:14] unfolded this year um because that digs a lot deeper i think into into the trading psyche i'm trying to think of a trade um that i particularly enjoyed this year um i would probably have to go back to

[1:30:28] cheltenham this year because the again the us masters i thought i traded it pretty well this year but the gold cup at cheltenham i pretty nailed on the nose this year and the interesting thing about the cheltenham

[1:30:42] markets if you look at the day-to-day markets that we're trading at the moment this this time of year the markets are a lot weaker and the volume comes in lot weaker and the volume comes in later and they're sort of dispersed over

[1:30:54] little periods of time so as a consequence the volume rises and falls what's going on within the markets but if you look at a market like cheltenham the volume starts to arrive there when the previous race has finished at

[1:31:07] so you get half an hour to basically build up a position and exit that position over a period of time and if you're looking at my heart racing it's those sort of markets because i've

[1:31:20] i've got sort of you know six times longer on those markets than i would have on a race like today um to do something really special so those are the markets that i really really enjoy getting sort of stuck into

[1:31:33] this year i'm trying to remember if i did a decent result in the derby but i'd probably say especially because i performed well at cheltenham i think that's the thing that sticks out for me mainly this year

[1:31:53] novice trader to trade i.e like turtle traders yes because i've done it um i have been teaching my children to and i think that that gives you really valuable insight into how people

[1:32:07] learn and what they learn as well because i'm pretty confident that they would be able to trade okay not at the same level as me have is the development of new strategies

[1:32:23] because they're not at the stage where they could reasonably sensibly do that behind it um and they probably need to be more for that so i think if you have an interest in a sport if you have a real

[1:32:37] deep interest in trading and all of those things then what tends is you can develop ideas out of that you need that passion and enthusiasm to do that and that's the hardest thing to engage

[1:32:51] and make a bit of money but if they don't understand why how or individual or move it forward from there then ultimately that wouldn't just fade away so i think that that process takes a lot

[1:33:06] drink yes you can but i think that the um whole psychological aspect to that side of it

[1:33:18] that takes a little bit of time to how the person thinks how they behave and then to be able to actually reflect and i think that's one of the biggest things if i sat down with you over the

[1:33:32] bulb moments and you'd be thinking oh my god that's where i've been going wrong but could i turn you from nothing to a really competent trader in a day longer than that and part of that is because i don't know

[1:33:45] you as a person what influences the way that you behave and act and that's one of the things that you have to overcome so we did have somebody about six months on a particular project but he was there

[1:33:59] i'm not going to mention his name but he was the most useless trader ever not being nasty here um but his tolerance for risk was every five seconds something went wrong and it would be like no calm down

[1:34:16] doing uh this is the process that we agreed this is what you should be doing this is when you should be doing it off you go and do it but he would be paralyzed by fear almost um and he just couldn't

[1:34:28] which was interesting but nonetheless his trading career didn't last very long think he'd been too intellectual in the past and concept of taking risk when you didn't know the outcome and i'd

[1:34:43] that you can learn when you're trading is this ability to look at something and i think i know what's going to happen but it's okay if it doesn't work out taken place for me

[1:34:58] was being okay with that and being able to cope with the rejection by the market and being able to come to terms with it to sort of taking a risk even though it's like sort of jumping off a cliff into some water and you don't know the

[1:35:11] depth of the water now i would say that that is quite risky but you would take into account other factors um when you're trading especially when you start moving up

[1:35:23] to a much higher level because you're using large amounts of money overall you're taking quite chunky positions that could result in big negative uh if you don't do it correctly um so you have to be able to feel the fear and

[1:35:36] that i've learned is it's really changed of being able to to take risk because part of the process of trading is doing without knowing what the outcome is likely to be and you have to overcome

[1:35:49] really struggle to do that so you have to practice that you have to drill it into yourself you have to learn that it's okay to make a loss it's fine it doesn't matter and that's all part of the process

[1:36:10] here racing 5312 double zero one said would i make money if you weren't in the market that's a great little question um somebody would probably fill my shoes to be honest i reckon um and we may be

[1:36:23] strategies at opposite ends of of the scale of things so always remember that if you're a trader traders but probably where most of the money is coming from

[1:36:35] are traditional gamblers and people who don't put any effort into eyes or they're not developing any strategy i if you look at the market from a broad perspective

[1:36:49] the mass market are people who just can't be bothered basically or are looking for a shortcut and then if you're above that you're effectively money from the tier below that effectively and then as you go up that

[1:37:02] you get a smaller and smaller number of people and probably at the top of that ecosystem are probably big syndicates people with information advantage were a very small number of them making little bits from large numbers of people

[1:37:19] um but there seems to be a regular uh churn of people who come into this expecting that it's going to completely transform their life for no you know what you've actually got to work for this and they just drop off

[1:37:33] after you know losing a little bit of money so um you need to progress yourself up that up that triangle effectively um through that ecosystem

[1:37:45] things through being a little bit better perhaps using better tools and progressing your way upwards from um would you make money if i wasn't in the market probably not because somebody

[1:37:58] sideways rather than vertically i should sideways rather than vertically i should imagine bookmakers or tipsters no i don't is is the short

[1:38:11] answer there i don't look at that at all how you trade it no unless if you're doing in play

[1:38:29] ratings tom says spurs one man city now tom says spurs one man city now let's do a few others thank you for that

[1:38:51] an example a little bit earlier in on the live have a look at that and and read all of the um the dialogue that i had around that particular example because i

[1:39:05] gave you a really good one today on the on the feature race opportunity if you um

[1:39:20] order in the market doesn't necessarily mean it's initially it may make the odds drop significantly but longer term it may regress so i wouldn't necessarily go against that it's um i think that if you get a large

[1:39:34] then you can consider that somebody really wants to get on board with before but if you see just one large order it doesn't really mean much

[1:39:46] doesn't really mean much over all the skiing things ticks do you allow it to close at i've done a video on looking at stop losses so the way that i frame the market is i don't have an arbitrary number that it

[1:39:58] goes against me what i will do is i will say this is where i expect the market to trade and if the position starts to go against breaches that lower level and that's when i dump the position so

[1:40:10] there is no arbitrary amount that i let the market go against

[1:40:31] saying are we gonna bring in features for other exchanges that all depends um but angel is only available on bet stack angel is only available on bet stack um and i make more on bet stack

[1:40:44] on bet stack than the product generates in revenue so it's it's driven by revenue and as a consequence that's the limiting factor exchanges uh the product has to pay for itself

[1:40:57] the small team that we have around bet angel so unless we get uh money to able to fund those projects that will bring on new people it's very difficult for us to develop for other

[1:41:09] exchanges so just being honest there basically so just being honest there basically so we do have bet angel for bedtac but unlikely at this moment in time and if something

[1:41:22] opened up which had massive amounts of and just my interest in it would probably push us down that development loss on that to be able to to actively trade it but um yeah it's

[1:41:35] it's basically a commercial consideration really we're at the limit um and we'd have to bring in new people to be able to develop for more to be able to develop for more platforms and more exchanges

[1:41:52] rubbish on a saturday evening and i'm unlikely to be able to make any money and i've got automation trading on it and find out uh how that is doing

[1:42:09] scalpers to after suffering losses i think that probably um if you look at i've always had this model in my head around psychology of imagine yourself

[1:42:21] around psychology of imagine yourself being a a person who was having to do cold calling via a telephone if you were able to cold call people the problem that you have when you're cold calling i get

[1:42:33] you should be here one day when i take one it's quite amusing cold calling is you probably have to call 20 people before you get anybody that's even remotely interested and i think that i when i was looking at

[1:42:48] cope with that psychology because can you imagine you cold call somebody and no i'm not interested or something slightly stronger than that um so it must be absolutely soul destroying to go through all of those

[1:43:02] calls to just wait for that one call where somebody actually is interested sell and it's sort of similar i think when you're trading because i went off and i looked at the the cold

[1:43:15] can these people just sit there all day and it's all automated nowadays um just that they're trained is they basically say um look as another step on to when you're going to get that success

[1:43:32] to do when you're trading and you take a loss you sort of say to it well it's okay um because i'm i was expecting that and i'm opportunity to come along so i think from a psychological

[1:43:45] preparation perspective that's probably how you should view it so i go into every day expecting to make money i course of the day but what i don't know is how that's

[1:43:57] profits and then some nasty losses or it could which gradually claw back during the day but i and i always go in with the expectation that i will make money

[1:44:11] course of the week what tends to happen is wednesdays pick up thursdays you know look quite good fridays are beginning to pick up some momentum saturdays

[1:44:25] you know are the day of the week so even if i get off to a bad start at the or feeling rejected i'm just sort of better start so yeah you have to you know you can get

[1:44:38] some massive wins and you can get some massive losses um but really what you're thinking and focusing on is that line in between next trade just because you did a really good trade

[1:44:51] great one next time and just because you had a big loss doesn't mean that you're next time either so you just have to keep plowing along that path and let the keep plowing along that path and let the two balance themselves out over time

[1:45:15] have it keeps jumping every time i'm reading it's jumping out do you think it's better to have the correct strategy executed incorrectly or wrong strategy but with good execution

[1:45:30] improve that uh many people have completely video the other day and it was somebody trying to trade pre off and he got into the market he was in the wrong race he got into the

[1:45:45] market at the wrong time with the wrong stake on the wrong runner um it did the wrong trade but he actually managed to make a profit um and the problem was that was the

[1:45:58] because everything about the trade was completely wrong the only thing that out to be a profit but if i if i you know sat you down and be looking for that video is the complete polar

[1:46:12] looking for and yet he got away with it and he will repeat that trade endlessly i'm wondering why he's not making money so yeah definitely um it's better to badly because you can undo that and you can progress from there

[1:46:36] yes it will paul says i did cold calling 30 years rejections i always knew i was going to end up with the one that would make up trading spot on and it's it's uh you know i i was trying

[1:46:50] to look for a proxy that would align it to trading and that that is the align it to trading and that that is the best proxy i can find

[1:47:06] and we have just had this question a couple of times which is do you see trading becoming fully automated no manual trading i think it'll probably be trade now it's quite different from how i traded a

[1:47:19] few years ago so i'm when i enter the market i can trade fine that's no problem at all um but there are little elements of it that are going to give me an edge from an execution perspective

[1:47:33] people can see an opportunity but when i place that trade in or out of the market what it's doing is it's giving me the ability to just do it and that adds up over the course of the year over 30 000 markets just a tiny

[1:47:47] allows me to squeeze just that much more out of the market so i think out of the market so i think manual trading will always be around but i feel like i'm sort of a robot really um i feel like a cyborg i've got

[1:47:59] effective and i think it's inevitable that the market is going to be heading slightly the entry or the exit for trade

[1:48:21] than you would think thank you dale i had i wasn't aware of that to do with playing the guitar um says how long uh from post would you

[1:48:37] swing trade the if you're looking for a trend within as you can as long as the liquidity is there the further out you start you can't really get a very big move in the last

[1:48:51] 60 seconds or so so you probably the further out you go you should be able to get a much bigger move

[1:49:05] welcome um if you're using a vpn to connect vps because the vps will be hosted natively in the uk same speed with a little bit of latency on the connection

[1:49:18] on the connection as somebody in the uk use excel no not in my experience i've talked about this a little bit earlier nothing's impossible but in my time i

[1:49:35] markets and then anticipate how they're going to behave and that seems to do a better job i'm not saying it's there doing well with it and stuff like that but

[1:49:47] i'm the longer i go on the more confident i get that i know exactly what confident i get that i know exactly what i'm doing thank you saying i'm enjoying the live stream will we do some more

[1:50:02] actually been going on now for an hour 50 which is much longer than i i thought if i kept it in an hour that would be probably adequate this live stream was experiment with this setup i've got another set

[1:50:17] up that i think probably has a slightly better quality camera and feed now that the massive internet pipe into this building that so i've got a direct comparison of the two but also i think maybe what we

[1:50:31] should do is narrow the topic down so if i do a live stream on a certain thing we can talk exclusively about that i think that will give you more value in a shorter period of time most of the

[1:50:43] live streams that i've done sort of quite broad and we meander all probably difficult for people to to watch back um and for people to stay so i'm thinking maybe we just do very specific ones on specific topics or

[1:50:57] things where you can ask much more deeper questions rather than broader i'm thinking that may be the way um to do it equipment as well because i've got three or four different bits of equipment here

[1:51:10] this is the most basic setup and i think i can probably improve on that and also if i create a little live streaming desk around me i could probably start to bring in imagery and other items like

[1:51:22] that perhaps so i think maybe that would be an option so i think maybe that would be an option for us financial markets yes i am um the one of my hedge fund friends from

[1:51:38] the us has moved to europe so i'm probably more involved in it than i um that's still quite an active part of my life that's why my life is so many plates to spin all of the time

[1:52:00] macbook and i use parallels to run bet angel on it it works pretty well anyhow it's an hour 52 that's longer than i anticipated we would spend so what i will do is i'm going to go

[1:52:15] back and look at some of the questions and um i will go back and probably specifically on a separate video but i am going to do some more live streams as well and we're probably going to narrow the subject

[1:52:28] a little bit so that we can look specifically at some topic topics and i can give you some more detailed answers quite broad so i think you would probably benefit from doing that

[1:52:42] probably benefit from doing that but um yeah we we must move on a bit now and i appreciate everybody coming and having a look and asking some questions i hope that i was able to give you a little bit of value in the time that we

[1:52:54] um but i look forward to seeing you on the very next live stream thank you very much for coming i hope you have a good weekend