Is Bitcoin Dead? Complete Analysis (This Chart Will Predict How Low It Will Go)

[00:03] a lot of people are saying these days. And today I'm going to show you my analysis, my perspective, my opinion. What's happening in the market and what's likely to happen? Will Bitcoin continue to fall? Okay,

[00:18] first let's understand what's happening now. I often say that happening now. I often say that the market is about analyzing the past, understanding the present, and attempting to predict the future. And everything

[00:31] we do trying to predict the future is based on what has already happened in the past, because otherwise it's just a guess. If it's happened before, it might end up being a pattern that tends to repeat itself over time, right?

[00:47] analyze the past, but that doesn't mean the market will definitely follow the direction we believe it will, right? Things could turn out differently. This last bull market cycle was very different from the previous

[01:02] cycles. We didn't have a very significant out season this time either, but anyway, understanding what's happening now, we're in a period where, based on an analysis I've done before,

[01:17] after the historical high, the market tends to remain in the market tends to remain in a movement from the high to the a movement from the high to the low for about a year. That's how it was from the end of 2017

[01:30] low for about a year. That's how it was from the end of 2017 until December 2018, about 364 days. It until December 2018, about 364 days. It also spanned approximately 357 days from the peak of the previous cycle to also spanned approximately 357 days from the peak of the previous cycle to the lowest point. Now, if

[01:44] we repeat the previous cycle and observe the current cycle, it is very can see that we had a peak, then the market returned. Then it went up

[01:57] a little more and then plummeted. And here we're seeing a very similar movement. We reached a peak, the market corrected to a new high, and then it plummeted. And it's interesting that it's been plummeting in the same way,

[02:09] where it has a strong impulse, then a small correction, then another strong impulse, and then a small correction for a final, sharp drop downwards. I believe

[02:21] that we may be getting close to this movement to deliver one last blow downwards. Especially since many days have already passed here. If we take into account this period of 357 days, theoretically we are

[02:36] of 357 days, theoretically we are talking about approximately another 120 days of decline. Another important detail is that this green line here is important detail is that this green line here is a 4-year cyclical moving average.

[02:50] Why cyclical? Because that's approximately when the approximately when the Bitcoin halving will occur. And it can be observed that the price has not yet surpassed it. And in the previous cycle he had overtaken him.

[03:03] So I believe we might see a similar pattern to the previous one. And you can see that when the price exceeded the average, it was when there were about 120 to 140 days left, you see?

[03:19] So, it's very similar to what happened before. So, we might see this movement here where the average is broken, meaning the market falls further and then drop downwards before finally starting to rise. And

[03:35] why is that interesting? Because if we take into account how much the market fell after breaking the average, more or less during that period, about 27%, and [thinking] from where it is here to

[03:47] approximately where I placed my line, which isn't an upward trend line, but it's like a channel that historically holds the price , it's also around -27% . So we have yet another

[04:02] coincidence, right? But that's not all. This Fibonacci line that I placed This Fibonacci line that I placed here, from the market low to the high, the 50% range, which is the equilibrium region, is at a point of

[04:17] convergence. Take a look at this . Let's put the volume profile indicator here. Look how interesting, the POC, which is the point of control, that is, during this period. And if you want, you can start from the minimum as well.

[04:34] if I'm not mistaken, look, it ended up going down here. However, this doesn't detract from the fact that in this range, around 50% of the Fibonacci retracement, we have this

[04:46] HVN, which is a high-volume node , where the market tends to move to capture all the liquidity that was generated during this upward movement. Think about it this way: negotiations were conducted within this price range, just

[05:00] movement as a whole. There are also many negotiations here, and the market tends to recover. These regions serve as if they were mansions. So it came in at that price range, and if it surpasses the moving average, we'll most likely go to

[05:16] around the $45,000 range. So yes, I believe, there are many people here saying that, oh, the support here at $55,000,000 might hold, it might even hold, but in my view, if the market surpasses the $

[05:30] view, if the market surpasses the $ 60,000 mark with a breakout on the daily chart and confirmation of that movement, I don't think it will hold movement, I don't think it will hold at $55,000-$54,000. I believe it should drop to

[05:43] at $55,000-$54,000. I believe it should drop to around 45, around 45, maybe even a sharp drop to around 40,000. 1,000 so that the downward cycle finally ends.

[05:58] And then we should see a slow recovery in prices followed by an explosion, just like what happened before. Beauty? So here we had the end of the downward movement, the market rose

[06:13] sharply, but then it moved sideways, right? We had COVID here, right? And here it's the same thing, we had a drop, the market started to rise, it moved strong surge. So I believe this pattern tends to repeat itself. So, if I were to

[06:27] tends to repeat itself. So, if I were to make a guess, and analyzing the past, it's that we'll see further declines until, as I said, around $5,000. Remember that for this to happen, we need to wait for a breakout and

[06:40] confirmation of this 4-year moving average. Once that's done, the market should look here. Don't worry, will the price drop any further? Are you looking for the POC here, which is the region with the highest concentration of orders and theoretically

[06:54] where the most liquidity is concentrated? I doubt it because he wasn't looking for a because he wasn't looking for a POC before, right? So, if you observe all this movement here, you can see that the market exploded up there, and it

[07:09] doesn't come back down until the POC (Point of Concept). Beauty? We can see here, in this other movement we had in the market, from here to here, the PO is down here, he's not looking for it, but he's getting very close to the HVN. Look, here

[07:25] we have an HVN, it came pretty close, right? We also had another right? We also had another movement here, it held up at HVN, you see? I know that, if you look at it compared to the POC, it doesn't seem like an

[07:38] HVN, it seems like a region that doesn't have much concentration, but it's a region that tends to hold the price and that's exactly what happened. I believe the POC, a little before. And on top of that, there's a confluence here in the

[07:52] And on top of that, there's a confluence here in the 50% Fibonacci region, which is a super interesting price point because it's a region of equilibrium in impulsive price movements. Beauty? But we can't just look at this

[08:06] Bitcoin chart. I want to show you another chart here that's very another chart here that's very famous, the Rainbow Chart, which has been well-known since I entered the crypto market back

[08:19] since I entered the crypto market back in 2017, where the predictions in 2017, where the predictions started coming true, right? Well, I don't 100% believe in the model, considering these maxims here, okay?

[08:33] considering these maxims here, okay? Because it's quite an exaggeration. I believe that as time goes by, the maximum tends to get lower and lower , obviously, because it's a maximum, right? It's going to get higher and higher, but I

[08:46] don't believe the increases will be exponential , okay? However, the funds, yes. So, we're in a bottoming region, so I don't like to use this chart $1 million, okay, it might happen," but I don't use

[09:02] happen," but I don't use this chart as a reference for that, possible buying points. And you can see that we are here below the region that indicates Bitcoin is on sale, just as happened

[09:16] is on sale, just as happened previously near the market low, which is more or less the region I showed you earlier. So, another coincidence, okay? And another very

[09:30] coincidence, okay? And another very important point is the fear chart, which is the important point is the fear chart, which is the CryptoFar and Grid Index, which shows fear and CryptoFar and Grid Index, which shows fear and greed, how the market is doing. And

[09:42] we can see here in gray, it might be a little difficult for you to see in the video, but here in gray is the price of Bitcoin. And you can see the following: when we have a downward movement

[09:55] like this, it was the market high, then it started to fall and the low was around here, near the end of 2022, which I believe... So, the low will also be at the end of the year, around November 2026, right? And then what

[10:12] happens? Pay attention. We are observing here that the are observing here that the Fear and Grid Index chart, the fear index,

[10:24] Fear and Grid Index chart, the fear index, was not at its lowest levels. The lowest levels were previously when we had what? Panic sell, selling, the market plummets wildly, which is more or less what is happening

[10:39] previously, right? And what is happening again now, because of the first sale of Michael Sailor's Strategy . So, the first time they are desperate because of that, etc. And another very important thing that

[10:54] you have to take into consideration is that the market, whether you like it or not, is driven by narrative, it is driven by hype, and considering that the United States is now hosting the World Cup, not only the United States, but also

[11:09] Mexico and Canada, the whole world will be focused on that. There are also the other things, the possibility of... Pandemic, even aliens are talking, apps have files, so the world's focus isn't on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

[11:26] Sorry. And I believe this is very good for two reasons. First, a phase for good for two reasons. First, a phase for us to accumulate more,

[11:38] video, so it'll just be up to the fans . Uh, lower price, off the radar, accumulation phase, very good for us to accumulate. Bitcoin, I believe that least to hit the historical high again or close to it. I'm not saying that,

[11:55] oh, it will hit $200,000, $1 million , I don't know, I don't know the market it already had a very interesting market cap . It has the potential to reach $1 million, it has the price, right, taking into account all this

[12:08] taking into account all this market cap, but uh I don't need that to Bitcoin returning to its historical high close to, right, around $0.00 is already very cool, because uh I'm accumulating bitcoins during this drop, so I'm

[12:22] 's better for me, because I can buy cheaper and the whole world isn't looking at that right now. And even if they do at some point, the focus won't be on that, because it's on these other events I mentioned

[12:35] earlier. So, most likely we'll have this phase likely we'll have this phase I talked about. And going back to the I talked about. And going back to the fear and greed index, it's like this:

[12:48] we had this impulsive movement here, the gray one in Bitcoin, this drop that was where we had the most fear in the market. After that, it normalized, calmed down, turned a little yellow before falling again, just like what's happening

[13:04] now. It turned a little yellow, look, it plummeted here in this violent drop. Then it turned a little yellow before falling again, and then the market went somewhat sideways, effectively reaching the lowest point, which is what I believe will happen

[13:19] soon. Okay? So, we're getting very close. I know it's difficult to be very close. I know it's difficult to be afraid to buy at the lowest point, but you You have to understand this: it's precisely at the lowest point that you're

[13:33] buying cheap. It's precisely at the lowest point that those people who have accumulated profits are buying. I've been in the accumulated profits are buying. I've been in the market for a long time and I've been through

[13:46] several cycles, and I can tell you that where I see people getting screwed the most is precisely when things are But it's in those moments that the best opportunities appear.

[14:02] When everything is easy, everything is going up, anyone becomes an expert trader, an probably won't get many views because, as I said, people's focus right now isn't on that.

[14:16] But if you're here, it's for a reason. This video had to reach you. I everything and buy Bitcoin, I'm not telling you to go in leveraged, but what I want to tell you is that this may be one of the last opportunities

[14:31] this may be one of the last opportunities for you to buy Bitcoin at for you to buy Bitcoin at this price. And if I'm right, there's a window of opportunity in the next 12, actually 16,

[14:46] 18 months, considering the period of decline, but the rise... A little more and slower than what we initially have for you to at least double

[14:58] your capital. And doubling your capital in about 18 months is capital in about 18 months is very interesting. What is your risk-reward ratio? Well, Bitcoin could go to zero. In my view, that's very

[15:10] difficult. I hope that doesn't happen. It's practically impossible, okay? But let's suppose it falls to $0,000 and you're buying now at 60, it fell, 57%. But if you buy at that price and it

[15:27] starts to fall more, then you buy at 55, then buy at 40, your average price will fall. Let's suppose your average price stays at $50,000 and Bitcoin returns to its all-time high, you'll have a very favorable risk-reward ratio. And

[15:42] remember that the entire bull cycle to date didn't just make Bitcoin hit the previous all-time high, it made Bitcoin surpass it by a wide margin.

[15:54] And what's the next target? 200,000, approximately R$1 million. So imagine paying around R$ 250,000 for Bitcoin. If you pay the 250,000 for Bitcoin. If you pay the average price of R$50,000 and it reaches R$

[16:09] 1 million, that's like multiplying by four. It might seem like a small amount, because nowadays everyone wants to make 10 , 100 times their money. But that's results if you try to do it overnight, right?

[16:23] overnight, right? So, you can use this video intelligently, study it, draw your own conclusions, or you can simply let it pass. I want to know what you're going to do.

[16:36] Comment below if you liked this video and also if you're going to buy Bitcoin, if you want me to analyze other cryptocurrencies, Ethereum, Solana, other cryptocurrencies, Ethereum, Solana, among other altcoins. And I didn't ask for a

[16:49] like; you give a like if you want, if you liked it, if it was useful to you, okay? And also, obviously, I invite you to subscribe to the channel to follow subscribe to the channel to follow future content. Best regards and good

[17:02] future content. Best regards and good luck to us all.