Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Is Fake! Why Smart Money Is Getting Bullish on Crypto

[00:02] don't have enough of them to feel confident in them. >> BlackRock is tokenizing almost every asset. Almost every asset is going to be built on a crypto rail. >> We are right at relatively cheap levels,

[00:16] deploying capital into the market. >> Listen, I think it's ultimately going considerably higher. >> The case for a $200,000 >> The case for a $200,000 Bitcoin just got stronger. Keep in mind,

[00:30] Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin, just like Solana will outperform Ethereum. So, there's a lot of opportunity in the crypto space, and yet all investing attention at the moment is in the stock market. Stock market investors are

[00:47] hoping for maybe 10% more returns this year. The fact is, most people just do not realize there is so much more asymmetric opportunity in

[00:59] crypto right now, especially understanding that Bitcoin is bottoming while the stock market just keeps extending higher. The number one biggest mistake investors can make right now is thinking that Bitcoin's alleged

[01:15] four-year cycle is real, and that means Bitcoin bottoms out lower later this year, around October. At least according to Fairlead's Katie Stockton, who says, "Actually, Bitcoin is way oversold right

[01:29] now, and you're making a huge mistake if you think that the four-year cycle plays out. It is the counter narrative to be bullish on Bitcoin like this right now. This is all just human psychology. It is a tale as old as time that downside

[01:45] exhaustion in Bitcoin is opportunity." Katie Stockton explains back and forth with CNBC host Joe Kernen. Listen. >> The good news for Bitcoin traders or investors is that we have a long-term oversold condition and it's been in

[02:01] place for a duration at which it usually starts to impact the chart. So, we're looking for stabilization. Ideally, it does happen in this range because it is a key Fibonacci retracement level below which often times a full retracement

[02:16] happens. So, we're hoping to see it. 60,000 is also a key level as well. 60,000 is also a key level as well. >> It's down 60% from the high or 50? >> So, not 80. In other drawdowns before it was as institutionally accepted and

[02:30] there were no ETFs. So, people, you know, a lot of people, the bulls that we have on say this this might not be a full drawdown like we've seen in the past and we could be near something now. You

[02:42] argument? >> we can still see those 75-80% drawdowns, but as a technician, I almost see the volatility as opportunity. And when we do have those big drawdowns, which we can avoid using those trend following

[02:56] gauges, then of course you have an opportunity to ride the relief rally and those can be just equally violent as you know. So, I'm a Bitcoin bull from a very, very long-term perspective. I'm not really on board with these four-year

[03:09] cycles. We don't have enough of them to feel confident in them. But, I'm always for that opportunity. >> And it's just human nature and it's you could use this in in any market, but it's at at 125 it's like, "Oh my god,

[03:24] buy it. I can't buy it at 125. I would love it." At 60 it's like, "I'm not >> It's market psychology at work. >> if people that wanted to buy it at 125 are afraid to buy it at at 60. >> hard to buy into weakness, but it is

[03:39] see a little convincing shift in momentum before adding exposure. And because support is being tested so hard, ideally we see even a a of 3 weeks of stabilization here before feeling convinced it's

[03:54] >> The number two reason why Bitcoin is more bullish than it looks is because it more bullish than it looks is because it has finally touched the 200-week moving average. The 200-week moving average is key, according to Bitcoin OG and

[04:09] possible Satoshi contender Adam Back, who says every bear market in the past has ended after this has happened. And today, with the exchange supply so low, yet fundamental adoption so high, Bitcoin is a generational buying

[04:24] opportunity right now, he explains in 40 seconds. >> The 200-week moving average last week increased to $62,000. So, we are at sort of relatively cheap levels. So, it's a good entry point for anybody

[04:40] deploying capital into the market. Yeah, I think that's the, you know, the beginning of the turnaround as also, you know, the the number of Bitcoin left on exchange is falling. The dominance index, uh, the market share of

[04:53] Bitcoin versus the rest of the digital assets is versus the rest of the digital assets is rising as well. And there's more, you know, the institutional adoption is focused almost exclusively on Bitcoin.

[05:05] the, uh, value trade here. >> Look, 2026 has been hugely disappointing for crypto so far. So, it's actually nice to see Tom Lee finally admit he was

[05:18] wrong in this clip. However, unless you think that this is finally the bear market where crypto finally dies, you must understand that the fundamental must understand that the fundamental crypto thesis is still intact. He says,

[05:31] "I think, without question, in 12 months, we're going to say that crypto was a downstream story of AI, just like memory stocks was sort of a has-been in memory stocks was sort of a has-been in 2024, 2025. They were stuck. They didn't

[05:46] go anywhere. and look what happened in 2026. They all went parabolic. Tom Lee >> I think without question, in 12 months we're going to say crypto was an a downstream story of AI, just like memory was sort of a has-been story in 2024 and

[06:02] 2025, right? That they they were stuck, they didn't go anywhere, and look what parabolic. >> Young people today bank through apps. In the future, they're going to be trading stocks, and very likely, as Raoul has

[06:15] it on a crypto platform. It's a tokenized stock. I mean, look at what happened with oil trading over the weekends. That's all using crypto rails. is a little hard to understand, and people don't like to deal with wallets,

[06:28] generation of users, are really big >> are they now, though? >> And I think you're absolutely right. There is FOMO because it's easier to buy the memory stocks, but

[06:41] I think without question, in 12 months we're going to say crypto was an a downstream story of AI, just like memory was sort of a has-been story in 2024 and 2025, right? That they they were stuck, they didn't go anywhere, and look what

[06:55] parabolic. Scott, it's it's actually happening. For instance, BlackRock is tokenizing almost every asset. Almost every asset is going to be built on a crypto rail. It is more efficient, it offers finality, and it lets it trade

[07:10] composability. It's really turning financial assets into software. It's happening, but hey, it's a slow and then sudden. So to me, it's been 2026 has been a big setback year. It's disappointing, but to

[07:24] there. >> And by the way, TradFi thinks the exact same way. They see Wall Street adopting it. They see crypto rails as the future. This is Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton CEO. For her, being bullish on

[07:40] crypto is obvious, and she explains why. >> Oh, you're 100% converging. And I think about I would say like blockchain does three things that traditional finance needs. Number one, it has a source of truth, right? So, I know whoever has

[07:55] token. There's a huge amount of cost in traditional finance when two parties trade to validate who they are, to make sure your data's, you know, in sync. All

[08:07] source of truth. The second as I mentioned is the smart contract. Whatever our agreement is, it gets programmed in and can be executed on its own. So, the efficiency of that's going to be tremendous. And then the ability

[08:19] to exchange with via payment. So, I can create new types of relationships. I don't need a third party to validate who my counterparty is, which I do in much of the traditional finance world, which is just a cost

[08:34] enable me to do it. So, to me, I think what what's going to happen is so much of this technology of blockchain is going to be become essentially the infrastructure

[08:46] rails of traditional finance and it's going to unlock tremendous innovation. >> Understand the setup crypto came from and the setup crypto is moving towards. So, Bitcoin went up 7x in the last cycle. It did this while AI more and

[09:03] more sucked all the capital and animal spirits out of the market while gold and silver made parabolic moves while the Fed balance sheet declined 27%. Now, consider the setup moving forward. Massive fiscal deficits, likely yield

[09:19] curve control, expansion of the Fed balance sheet, US military walking away from wars all over the world, major reset for AI, possibly while China takes Taiwan in a non-violent way, Dalio's call, new regulatory environment for

[09:34] crypto with infrastructure and financial products in the space. It is an interesting setup indeed. Look guys, BlackRock still hugely bullish on crypto. CIO Rick Ryder says, "Where Bitcoin is today, I think Bitcoin is

[09:49] from here." >> One of your mutual funds, I believe Bitcoin. And you're one of the early people inside BlackRock to get into it. It's now sold off 50%. Is it a buy now or are you going to wait

[10:04] more? >> Well, these are specific questions. So, considerably higher. I think the technicals, there are some technical condition around it that causes it to chop around. I think it's ultimately

[10:17] moderate exposure, quite frankly, cuz I think there's some other things that we and some of the growth engines. By the way, there are places to get yield and things like some parts of the credit markets, EM, that I felt like it's just

[10:31] higher. >> So, stay subscribed to Altcoin Daily. We are the largest crypto community in the world. Follow us on YouTube. Follow us on X. We are certainly growing fast. Again, my name is Aaron. This is Altcoin

[10:47] Daily. It is turning into a big year for crypto. So, stay informed and I'll see crypto. So, stay informed and I'll see you tomorrow.