SMU vs. Florida State Betting Picks — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:00] Alright everyone, give me a break in on the SMU vs Florida State game, giving you guys all the top picks and profits here for this game, as well as a little bit of DFS coverage. Let's go ahead and jump on into it. So let's start here with a game preview.

[00:28] We already noticed there's about a three-point spread in favor of SMU. Okay, they're minus 155. Game over and over, it's at 53.5 total points. Obviously, a high-scoring game, close-scoring game. We like that for betting purposes.

[00:40] There's a lot of game script narratives we can bet on, but we don't have to worry about the game being a block and what to do game script-wise with that. If we take a peek at some of the popular bets that people are on, we are going to notice that a majority of the people

[00:52] that are kind of betting on this game are betting on SMU to win. About 70% of people are betting on that. This is on Cal Street right now, pulling in those odds. But that is kind of the expectation, is that SMU is probably going to end up winning this game. Now, if you think the opposite of that, guys,

[01:05] one of the better places to bet on this game would end up being Hard Rock, bet at plus 105. So that ends up being a decent spot to get to there as well. Now if you guys were looking to maybe bet on Florida State money line, Trafkins is currently offering one of the

[01:17] better odds there at plus 130. So again, worth calling out. Only about 30% of people that are betting on this game are betting on Florida State to be able to win. So kind of just an interesting bet overall there. We'll go ahead and break down these ones a little bit further guys, but just

[01:29] taking a peek at some of the top prop bets here in this game that are being pulled in right now. And we actually have a little bit of a correlated idea, fact, and opportunity best-of here as well. Again, we'll break that down in just a second. So guys, before we go ahead and get into a deeper dive,

[01:42] I do just want to call out an update that I made to the 9to5sports.com website for anyone that is a site member. The tool I was just showing you guys was part of that update. And so I've been working on making these more and more powerful tools to the point where I kind of had to offset them a little bit

[01:55] from the main 9to5sports.com website. So they're still nested in the website, but it's more operating off of itself. And so to do that, I ended up making another section as part of the 9to5sports.com website. So if you guys are looking for some of those more powerful tools, which you do if you guys are a 9to5 member,

[02:10] if you're not, $10 a month, you guys can sign up. If you click on this tab, if you're a 9to5 member, then you're going to be allowed to click on any of these tabs. So what I was just taking a peek at was the Profs Dashboard, which looks like this. So it's going to be pulling in all the top profits there.

[02:23] And I ended up taking you to a tool like this. So we were just in the Game Preview tab where we were taking a peek at that Game Preview. So you can also just take a peek at some of the, you know, the dollar invest that people are placing on the day just in general. And just all the top profits that are being pulled in for that day and game.

[02:36] And then just taking a peek, we're going to be taking a peek at the college football dashboard for DFS. Okay. And we'll be taking a peek at that later on as well. So did want to call that out. And again, if you're a 9 to 5 site member, that's where some of those updates are made. And if you guys aren't a 9 to 5 site member, $10 a month gives you access to all of those tools on the website for a low monthly cost, including all those, you know, new, updated, more powerful tools as well.

[02:56] So now we just go ahead and take a peek at some of the top props. bets that are being pulled in here, guys. And we'll start with expected lead running back, Uzmanay Kroma, who is a sophomore running back for them. We are seeing that the best bet for him is actually going to be to get over 10 for his fantasy school on prize

[03:09] picks, but we're calling out, guys, the underdog line is a little bit lower. So if you guys remember two nights ago, I gave you guys a bet split on underdog, where I thought the overs were really the way to go, and those two ended up hitting very easily. Now, those were

[03:21] two stud running backs, and it was just, they were pretty heavy favorites. The only worry with them is maybe the game being a ball and them not being the players are scoring the touchdown. So I think we expected those players to really go off and have a good day, just a matter of how much. Whereas with Krohmeier, we're really hoping

[03:36] that the opportunity and the workload is there for him like we are expecting. This is still going to be a running back by community, but he should end up being the lead running back. And I would say as long as he does end up getting around 13 opportunities, we already know that the under

[03:48] is a pretty heavy favorite for his rush attempts. We don't like that. Okay. But at the same time, probably going to get 12 and if you get that I don't mind that we do see player anytime touchdowns is about 50 percent we'll kind of take that I would say if we do get a rushing touchdown obviously

[04:04] this one's hitting pretty easily then I would take P.K.'s rush yards 58.5 on average then we will be sitting pretty darn good now what's kind of interesting here is that we are seeing a weird line difference between like the player anytime touchdowns the rushing touchdowns like are they

[04:18] giving him a good shot at being able to put up points catching the football I mean maybe that's I agree with it. So, again, overall, guys, I don't mind this bet. We do need him to get some receptions, which is something he did a decent amount last year.

[04:30] It's really the only game last year that we saw him get a decent workload. Had only 6.3 fantasy points. He got 12 carries in that game. So, again, we do kind of need him to score a touchdown. But, again, I think we do get to the over, but just more so on underdog.

[04:42] Again, it very much just comes down to him scoring a touchdown, though, or not. I did want to stick with some of the Florida State players here guys We are getting another one Deuce Robinson potentially for over his receptions And we are seeing differing lines going out there among all the sports players So let take a deeper dive here

[04:58] So if you're looking for the best value bet for the over here, I actually would be on the hard rock bet to get over 4.5 at minus 120. If you're looking for the under, one of the better bets, but I should be on bet online. So just worth calling out. But I actually don't mind the over of 4.5 here.

[05:11] So if we pull them up here on draft games, guys, we are going to notice the opponent rank column. a very easy matchup going against SMU compared to last year. Again, we'll see if that holds over again to this year, but I do think this kind of echoes the opportunity that we have for him in this game.

[05:24] Now, he's something that last year wasn't typically getting over 4.5 receptions, but again, you take advantage of the matchup and the high-scoring game and the close-scoring game nature of this. I do think that kind of helps him elevate to be able to get this over in this game.

[05:36] He is something that I do expect to have a good game as well, just overall. I do think if you were maybe to look to bet on him just to have a good game, he could end up doing that on underdogs. So when we're looking at this on PrizeFix, guys, this is adjusting for the underdog.

[05:49] Sorry, we're adjusting the underdog line for the PrizeFix score and fantasy score-wise. But it still holds true that underdog is undervaluing his production, I would say, a little bit here. It's basically a 50-50 on PrizeFix. I don't mind the idea of betting on him to have a good game on underdog.

[06:02] I think that ends up being a pretty solid bet. He's the receiver number one here for Florida State. Should end up having a pretty darn good game. I don't mind the idea of betting on that. I think that ends up being the better bet. Now on top of that, we do need to take a peek here at the quarterback for Florida State as well.

[06:14] So this ends up being another very, very interesting betting opportunity here, guys, where we're going to notice that his fantasy score on prize picks is at 17. His fantasy score on underdog is at 19.2 or so.

[06:27] Now, the nice thing about the quarterback fantasy scorelines is that they are a one-for-one swap in regards to how they are calculated, okay? So we typically should not be seeing those big top line differences. And worth calling out, guys, that can end up being huge because if you remember our

[06:41] of the day from Saturday, guys. I told you guys Bryce Underwood was going to bet on his over on wide, especially because I felt like he was going to have a good game. Got lucky with that one. But I also mentioned that I wouldn't mind the idea of tossing him in for a middle bet

[06:53] on underdog, where he was off by 3 or 2.5. I don't remember off the top of my head. But obviously, by hitting 19.5, he ended up cashing on both sides of that bet. Not something you always want to bet on. You know, middle. You typically want to

[07:05] take the side that you think is best going to hit. But it really depends on the slips that you are running out. And just in general, if people are or some people are going to watch the feed and say he's going to have a bad game, Daniels, and then you would want to bet on his under and under. Some people are going to say he's going to smash today and want to bet on his over and price fix.

[07:19] I'm fine with either of those. I just want you guys to be prepared to place the bets best possible each and every day. That's why I like to call that out. And to me, the sneaky nice part about this bet and the last bet is I kind of like the idea of betting on their over.

[07:31] So, like, I like this over on price for 17. You bet on the under on underdog of 19 there. Again, that should not be happening. That's all by two, basically. But I also like Deuce to get over his fantasy score. And I already called out that that's a good bet on underdog. If you were to place those two bets together on a same site,

[07:46] that ends up being a correlated bet slip, but they're going to reduce your payout. So this is always a sneaky way to do a stack in which you're doing a correlated bet slip, but it's not going to get reduced with the payout. So take advantage of that, guys, if you end up liking this bet in general.

[07:58] After that, though, for him, I think the lines that we're going to turn are mostly correct. I do want to call out the line for pinnacle, guys. They are typically known as one of the better books out there in terms of their sharpness and lines that they give out. they have Daniels at 217.5 for his passing yard.

[08:13] And so, Pry 16 at 202.5, I do think is an interesting bet. And so, that could be a good opportunity just on some of those other sites as well to have him at about 202.5 as well to bet on his over-passing yard.

[08:25] And then just work on just two other players here for Florida State in regards to their pass catchers. Boggs is someone that should get a little bit more work here because they have two of their other receivers currently banged up. So, that should lead to a little bit more snaps for him.

[08:37] Over 1.5 receptions to me is not the craziest one in a game where I kind of assume, again, I assume he's going to win based off of everyone betting on that pretty much. Maybe the game script leads to FSU having to throw the football a little bit more,

[08:50] and then this is a bet that ends up hitting. And we also have Makai Danzy here as well, where we are noticing some prop line differences for his receiving yards line. I don't really have a big take on this. I feel like it just ends up being correct.

[09:02] I wouldn't want to bet on his fantasy score. I'd probably favor his under. But now let's go ahead and jump on in to SMU. So SMU has a fun player in Kevin Jennings, guys. They're quarterback. And the best bet that you can currently bet on him is him to get over his complacency at 22.5.

[09:17] This bet currently has a 52% likelihood to hit. I don't mind that. I feel like the rest of the lines that we're getting from are basically correct. Now, again, first point out, we are getting a slight pop-line difference between the two sides, guys. FiveSix is giving him about a 52% chance for the under to hit.

[09:31] Don't like that. But underdog Ben at about 22 ends up being an even better underdog bet. But I don't know. I kind of was hoping to bet the overs today And I don know guys I could fall for it I don mind the over but I really don but I think I mostly just gonna stay away um could end up hitting a middle too I mean that

[09:50] wouldn't be the craziest but it's a pretty high scoring game in the close game it's likely to throw an INT so we're calling that a minus one point there but it is also very likely to throw for two passing touchdowns so kind of balance that out unfortunately I think we just stay away

[10:04] from him now that's just for profit and for DFS purposes it's going to be one of the better clicks on the site in general. So we'll be breaking that down at the end of the video. And let's go ahead and take a peek at some of the other players here for SMU. Starting out with Unique Smith. We are noticing that we have a plus EV bet for him to get

[10:18] under 2.5 receptions. Now we're not getting that many lines coming in just yet on this guy. It's basically just hard rock bets. So a little bit unfortunate in that regard that we're not getting a full sample. At the same time, it's a plus EV bet for prize picks. We probably just need to be placing that bet. It's really as simple as that. From there,

[10:34] you know I'm probably staying away from the rest of them a little bit of problem and differences for his receiving arc but don't even mess with that too much I think whoever ended up getting more of the interesting spots is going to be someone like Ymir Knight who's expected to be

[10:47] the receiver number one here in terms of production for SMU and if Kevin James is going to be having this good game that he's you know projected to have then part of the reason as to why he'd have that good game is because someone like Ymir Knight is going to have a good game there as well uh so

[11:01] So he is someone where I will say his fantasy score is a little bit too high, guys, on prize checks. At 13, if you just do the math here, this is 10.5, you know, five receptions, 5.5, 55.5 receiving yards, you know, that's 10.5 in total points, and he's not likely to score

[11:15] a touchdown. So I do just want to caution you guys against betting on his fantasy score in general. If you were, I think you just want to bet on his, like, player anytime touchdown. Against a high-scoring game, Kevin Jennings is expected to throw for two passing touchdowns.

[11:28] That makes logical sense to me. At the same time, it is where it's going out. One player that seems to be undervalued, I would say, by the books, based off of his role kind of operating as the outside receiver, could expect some big plays, would be with Jalen Cooper here,

[11:40] who is stepping up into a bigger role. And I don't mind the idea of betting on either of these two to potentially be able to score a touchdown. Again, Kevin Jennings throwing for two touchdowns. Wouldn't it be too shocking to see one of those two to go to one of these two receivers?

[11:52] Now, the one player that's really expected to have a good game and really kind of be a predictable player as well is Kendrick Raphael here. And he is someone that just on the day has gotten a decent amount of value or a volume on prize space here. A lot of people are betting on him.

[12:04] 17.5 receiving yards, which we're calling out that line in general. Because if he is able to have a good day catching the football, then he should be able to get his over fantasy score really on either side. And I do think this is a spot

[12:16] where we do want to be targeting him. I like his line kind of either way on either side. It's about the same on both sides. A lot of people are betting on his over rush yards here, guys. as like a demon bet at 79.5. If you are doing that, I would say don't.

[12:29] Just bet on him to get over 82.5 rushing receiving yards. That's a much more logical bet here in this game that's going to end up being, you know, a pretty close game. So if you're looking for a standard bet there, a bet that has a good shot of hitting, I would rather do that one.

[12:41] Probably not messing with him as well with 15.5 rush attempts. Now, I do want to call it with that line, guys. We are being told to bet on his under for his fantasy score at 15.5. So that's where, again, I kind of came to that conclusion that if you are betting on him, it's going to make much more sense

[12:54] to do his over rush and receiving yards instead. That way you don't have to worry about that anytime touchdown line at all, although he is likely to score a touchdown. I, again, like the over fantasy score.

[13:06] I think I'm underdog more. I do. I do hate the fact that the data is telling us this is a pretty good under fantasy score bet. So probably just a bet that we should not be targeting at all. A little bit annoying then. So guys, let's go ahead and get into a bet of the day.

[13:20] We're calling our cows 6 for 7 on Saturday. but not a good day the previous day. Only two for six there, guys, last night. So we're 8-for-13 on the college football season, up two units of profit, which is obviously pretty good there.

[13:32] Hopefully we can continue the pretty good stretch. 8-for-13 on the year. Got two slip bets here for you guys for tonight's game. I like the running backs. Hopefully they can both score a touchdown. Again, with this one, don't like the fact that an underdog

[13:44] were being told to bet on his under, or on price, we're being told to bet on his under, which maybe you guys want to get to that one, but I think he's going to have a good game, So I'm going against the data a little bit here and taking advantage of a line that's slightly lower.

[13:56] And then I am trying to double dip a little bit with him where, again, if you were going to bet on an over for him on prize picks, guys, the over 82.5 rush for season, I think, ends up being the better bet. You need to admit the under 2.5 reception is just the best bet on the board, plus EB-wise, guys.

[14:11] Can't really control that. Now, there is a limited amount of sportsbooks that are giving us that line, so maybe that ends up changing, you know, prior to game start time. Double check that, guys, if you're a 9-5 side member. Again, if you're not, $10 a month, 9to5sports.com. You guys can sign up, get access to all the tools.

[14:24] And then, gang, there's just a big prop line difference. Again, if you think this game's going to be a little bit lower scoring, maybe you think FSU's going to struggle, then you probably want to bet on the under on Underdog where we are getting a pretty substantial prop line difference With that guys let go ahead and jump on into the DFS side of things And I do think this slate ends up being pretty darn simple in regards to like kind of overall strategy

[14:43] Like, we do know that we want to be getting to Kevin Jennings a decent amount, and I think Raphael ends up being someone we want to get to as well. Now, the issue with those two is they do not necessarily correlate. So it could make sense to not be on both those two in a line.

[14:56] It's either you're betting on Kevin Jennings to have a very good game because you maybe are using one of his pass catchers in the captain's spot, or maybe don't be on Kevin Jennings, maybe don't think he's going to have a massive game, and then you're getting a lot of salary savings there, where you can make a lot of unique things work stacking-wise.

[15:08] Now, I do think in regards to potentially having a very good captain value play that no one's really going to be on would be Jalen Cooper. This could end up being a very good leverage spot. It's not something you want to go overly crazy with, I will say, but if you are really liking Kevin Jennings or really don't mind the idea of getting to Cooper,

[15:23] who, again, would not be shocking to see him score a touchdown, that is basically the only reason why you would play him in the captain spot, is to get one of those two passing touchdowns from Kevin Jennings. A lot of people are going to be on Jameer Knight because he just has the highest floor among the SMU receivers.

[15:36] I think that makes perfect sense. I don't mind him as a correct error. And then we're coming on kicker-wise, guys. They have three, four listed here. Based off of my notes, it's Nick Reed, who I guess he sacked last year,

[15:48] so who knows how long of a leash he has if he misses a field goal here tonight as well, but just work on that. Let me take a peek here at the SMU place. I do think it's a little bit more simple. You probably are going to get to Daniels. Again, fantasy score-wise, though, we're calling out the prices that we are getting.

[16:01] These are the same prices Kevin Jennings about, even though Jennings does project better on both the projects that we're looking at. Running back-wise, it could end up being a little bit more difficult to get to Oseman, Krohman, Roma.

[16:14] And it is very much touchdown dependent. And in a game script where you maybe are looking at the SNU pass catcher a little bit more, it's a little bit more of a difficult click to get to for DFS purposes. So I do think kind of the top clicker SSU ends up being kind of the easy clicker,

[16:28] Deuce Robinson, who does project to be the top scoring receiver on the slate. He's a big play receiver as well. He is probably my favorite captain choice just due to pricing and due to being able to still play Daniels in the lineup there.

[16:41] And then you are going to have to punt a little bit. Maybe we punt to one of the kickers, guys. Panikowski has apparently won the kicking job, so maybe that's someone that you're looking at here instead. But in regards to value, I think Boggs makes sense there for FSU.

[16:54] especially if you're getting a play in Daniels, could get a little bit of production off him. You're not expecting anything too crazy. And then we're calling out Smith is too cheap. I know we're betting on his under 2.5 receptions earlier, as I called out. At the same time, if he does get 2.5 receptions,

[17:06] he's going to easily be able to hit value at that price tag. And already with a build like this, you already are having some salary left over in general, 2,600. And so maybe you could find some wiggle room in regards to where you'd end up wanting to pay up.

[17:18] But that's currently how I'm seeing it. I'm kind of curious as to the DFS game preview. It is going to say a lot more of the same things. Kevin Knight's stack with Junior Knight, Kevin Jennings, Junior Knight, and Jaron Cooper. Again, as I mentioned, Daniels and Deuce Robinson has a stack.

[17:32] So you guys get it. It kind of makes sense there. In terms of the top values, Finn and Junior potentially, but I don't think we want to go down that low. Derek McFall, again, kind of the top value. I don't think we want to go down that low. And then the nice thing, just kind of calling out the 9-5 college football DFS lineup optimizer.

[17:46] The nice thing about this tool is that we already are setting it up in regards to how you'd want to go about attacking a showdown site. typically. Now, it is we're calling off because it is a college football state. You're going to have to manually update the kicker projections, especially because

[17:58] a lot of these teams have multiple kickers listed. Again, it should be Reid and Panikowski there. And then if you look at some of the DSPs, I guess you're going to have to worry about that for college football. But if you take a peek at some of the lines that you can run out, it is going to stack

[18:10] a quarterback with a pass catcher. That is huge. And it's also going to do kind of the normal unique things that you would want it to do showdown construction-wise. So if you take a peek at it, guys, you're going to run out 20 lines and just see what the lineup is right now. This stuff will

[18:22] update before lineup loss. But the top lineup right now is Kevin James and the captain's thoughts, then getting into some of those punts. I don't know if I necessarily want to get to Pittman. I think I'd rather get to Yannick Smith as more of a value. That's how I see it. Dunsey is an okay push as well, but we are getting to kind of the three top

[18:37] choices here, guys. Knight, Robinson, Rafael, and Kevin James. I like the idea of getting to Daniels more. I'd like to get into both the quarterbacks more, but I think we get kind of the ownerships as well. So total exposure, Kevin James at 85%, which I kind of think

[18:50] makes sense. There should be a top producer tonight. Rafael, getting to him about 25% on the captain. Daniel's 25%. I think that's about right. I think I would want to get to Robinson maybe at 15%. Again, I like him the most, but I really don't mind

[19:02] that the thought process behind the roster is being constructed right now. So that's going to do it for this video, guys. I appreciate you being here. We'll be putting out probably a showdown or pop-in video for the Wednesday night football NFL game between the Seahawks and the Patriots. Crazy to already have NFL back, guys.

[19:15] I'm excited for that. Make sure to leave a like on the video, guys, on your way out. I appreciate you guys being here. And again, If you guys want access to any of the tools, head on over to 9to5sports.com. You guys can sign up to get access to all the tools for a low monthly cost of $10 a month. I appreciate you guys being here.

[19:27] Good luck. And as always, let's keep cashing.