College Football Betting Picks — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:00] Alright everyone, welcome back to another college football video. Give me breaking down the top profits for the three-game slate on Sunday, and then at the end of the video I'll be giving you guys some of my DFS picks as well, as well as my bet slips for the three-game slate. Let's go ahead and jump right into it.

[00:12] So we take a peek at the first game where we have Washington versus Washington State here, guys.

[00:34] Ends up being a game that is projected to be a pretty heavy blowout in favor of Washington. So for some of the bets that we're looking at for Washington, we're probably going to want to chase more of some overrushing bets, most likely, if we are going to be getting a good market.

[00:46] Now, for me, I actually kind of have my favorite bets the opposite of how you guys would want to go about betting on this game because of that big point spread in favor of Washington. So that's my biggest concern is that the game script could ruin the bets that I like here, guys.

[00:59] But also part of it is the players I'm going to be targeting are part of the reason as to why it ends up being a blowout, right? decently high game total at about 51 total points there for Washington they're obviously replacing John Coleman and Denzel Boston which again I do think could end up creating a decent amount of

[01:13] value for us Washington State they got a new quarterback coming in from UC Davis as well kind of a tough spot for him now if I had to choose a bet to be on for this game I think I actually probably would prefer to be on the under of this game and actually Washington State to be

[01:25] able to cover at 23 total points but for the most part I do think that these lines are correct I I feel like it's a small edge, betting the under, and betting Washington State to be able to cover, but don't necessarily need to go crazy with that.

[01:37] So let's go ahead and take a peek here at the betting dashboard, and one of the best bets that we are getting in this game is actually going to be Kirby. He needs to get under his rush attempts here of 9.5, which, overall, I was actually thinking about this could actually be a good overbet for him,

[01:50] just in general. I kind of like some of the bets that we're getting for him in general here. So he is someone that should still end up being the RB1 here for this team, guys. The issue is, again, the big point spread that's not in favor of him, you know, getting a lot of production.

[02:03] The 9.5 rush attempts is a concern. At the same time, I was actually thinking about betting on his over rush yards here. And so why some of his bets are somewhat interesting is we take a peek at maybe his rush and receiving yards bets.

[02:15] Well, we could be looking at the over here. The data was already telling us this could potentially be the best bet for him for the over. It has a 51% chance to hit. Game script-wise, you could still imagine this back in the over because it's going to be used in the receiving department as well.

[02:29] Now, his receiving yard line is only at 6.5. He probably would be better off just betting on that if you're betting into the game script narrative overall. But he is someone at 47.5 rushing receiving yards. That's not a bad bet. I also don't mind the idea of getting his over 35.5 rush yards.

[02:43] That is assuming two things. One, the game stays close enough for long enough. Partially why I like them to be able to cover is a bet like this. But two, that means he's still going to maintain more of that workhorse workload that we saw him in last year.

[02:56] And that is something that we did see is pretty consistently, again, the over-rush attempts, guys. And again, the over-rush yards, for the most part, very consistently last year. The issue is this does end up being a difficult matchup for him in general. And again, Washington State is expected to struggle.

[03:09] So ideally, in a scenario like that, we'd be wanting to target maybe an overpass in the art bet, where we're going to notice that the volume is going to be in favor of a quarterback to be able to go off and have a good game, or potentially receiving yard bets here for Washington.

[03:22] We're really not getting those or reception yard bets for Washington State, sorry. For Washington, I actually don't mind some of the bets that we could get to. Robach is someone that should end up having a pretty sizable contribution in this game

[03:35] if it does end up being a blowout. He's presumably going to be the receiver number one replacing Denzel Boston here, guys. As a true senior or true freshman last year, he had a very good season. 42 receptions, 560 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns.

[03:50] And if you give him another stop here, guys, he's going to have a pretty good game, especially in what ends up being a pretty good matchup for him. So I don't mind the idea of betting on his over-receiving yards, but at the same time, I think we'd be better off just betting on his over-receiving touchdowns than instead.

[04:06] If Vegas ends up being correct about the game spread being in such heavy favor for Washington, I think we end up liking that by a decent amount. Now, for this game, guys, like for DFS purposes, college football DFS purposes, Damon Williams is really the top play overall,

[04:20] and you can tell that by looking at some of the bets that we are getting for him. Basically, when we look at his market, I would say most of the lines are basically correct for him. We're not getting a massive edge, but really either way with some of the lines that we are getting for him. Like, I wouldn't mind the idea of betting on maybe some of his overrushing profits,

[04:34] because I do think he's going to have a good game, and game script-wise, you would expect him to be part of the reason as to why this game is a game in which they're winning, and if they're winning by that much, maybe he's running it a little bit more. You know, 11 rush attempts is a lot as well.

[04:46] But like for DFS purposes, I think that makes sense. For profiting purposes, I just feel like the lines that we were getting for him are correct. And then just one other bet where if the data, if Vegas ends up being correct about how this game is going to go, I actually don't mind the idea of getting two of their kickers over kicking points,

[05:01] which ends up being 7.5. Now, if we look back at last year, we are going to notice he did get the over four out of the past five games there. And then if we look at kind of the EV optimizer, basically a 50-50 split for him across the board,

[05:13] which I'm overall okay with. But again, we're kind of just betting on Vegas being correct about the game. There is a scenario where maybe it does end up being a little bit lower scoring and Washington State is able to cover. And then I actually think that would help or kick or be able to get that over

[05:26] because maybe just Washington settling for a couple field goals there instead of scoring a touchdown there. But that would be the overall hope. But now let's go ahead and get to the Wisconsin Badgers here versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish This ends up being another interesting game that does have the lowest game total on the site 46 total points Part of that I think is due to the fact that Wisconsin

[05:45] is probably going to run the football a bunch here in this game. Colton Joseph, new quarterback for them from Old Dominion, is pretty much known for being a dual threat quarterback, but he's someone that is expected to rush a bunch here. And then they have the Iowa State transfer in Abusama,

[06:00] who I kind of liked him last year for Iowa State. I was pretty excited. I had a casual Badgers fan to get him. I'm kind of excited about the changes that they made. And for everyone that doesn't follow college football, especially the Wisconsin Badgers, it's been so brutal during the Luke Fickle era, where he's in year four now.

[06:15] The past three years, he's brought in a pretty good quarterback. They've actually brought in some pretty good weapons, offensive weapons. Shamir D.K. was the receiver that they had. Skyler Bell was the receiver that they had. They have a bunch of these NFL caliber players that didn't do anything in Washington.

[06:28] And part of that is due to them just not having a healthy quarterback. A quarterback that they brought in, they weren't healthy. They got injured at the start of the season. It's a super frustrating. So my biggest prayer for this game is let's just stay healthy. Cole and Joseph, stay healthy for the full game.

[06:41] That'd be awesome. But we are looking at kind of an interesting spot where running back Williams is expected to take over for Jeremiah Love, but also Jadarian Price. He's someone that, kind of for DFL purposes, is going to be a great click.

[06:53] Betting purposes, a little bit thin. Where we're going to get some of our edges, I do think, ends up being with the game script here, guys, where it does end up being a game in which it's projected to be a 20.5 point spread. again in favor of the Fighting Irish. That should lead to a more passive script there for the

[07:07] Wisconsin Badgers, where if we're looking at some of the receiving lines that were in for the Badgers, pretty darn low lines. And so that should end up being a good thing overall. So let's start with the Wisconsin Badgers receiver number one, presumably. It's going to be Eugene Hilton,

[07:21] T.Y. Hilton's kid. So he is someone where if you're looking at some of the different markets, we are getting different lines out there for him, guys. What is this? Harbrock, that has him at 22 and a half yards. I think 23 and a half is a little bit too low. Again, assuming that he does

[07:33] end up being the receiver number one for the Badgers. So, first and foremost, guys, if you're some of the best on hard rock, hammer that bet. 22 and a half yards is a terrible line there. That should not be happening. But for Price's purpose, I actually don't mind the over.

[07:45] Again, this would be more game scripts. Again, he's expected to be their receiver number one. Does end up being more of a guessing game there. This is an educated dart for us, I like to call it. Probably going to be a more run-heavy approach first. Again, with Colin

[07:57] Joseph being a dual threat quarterback, but again, given the game script, I do think it makes sense to be on Hilton for his over-receiving yards. Now, another not-sexy pick that some people aren't going to want to be on is Jacob Harris to get his over-receiving yards here.

[08:09] His is at 11.5, and I do think that ends up being a bet where we can get to his over as well. He is someone that they like there in Madison. Yes, he is in Green Bay, but anyways. And it makes sense, again, getting

[08:21] the game script where they're going to have to throw the football a little bit more, even if it doesn't be more of a run-heavy approach, he still should be on the field enough for us and so 11 and a half receiving yards all takes us a couple of receptions there to get that over and you know tight end can typically be the forgotten guy in the offense as well gain a

[08:36] little bit less attention than they should be in a play-by-play standpoint but I just typically have a good tight end don't mind the idea of getting to this one you know the tight end can be more of a security blanket especially for some of those running quarterbacks which Colton Joseph is and

[08:49] then let's just take a peek here at some of the lines that we are getting for Colton Joseph we are noticing that some interesting mindsets in general for his rush attempts. So, underdog actually has him at 14 and a half rush attempts, prize face

[09:01] at 13. I really don't know what to make of that. I kind of think that we just stay away from that. I actually don't mind the idea of betting on his over rush yards. Again, hard rock back guys. They have him at 27.5. Just pretty good odds there

[09:13] to bet on the overs, I think. Because he shouldn't be out by that much. Four yard rushing difference, that could be a one less sack for one for college football. That could be one actual design run, and that's the thing. He's going to get a few

[09:25] design runs. 31.5 rush yards. I do not mind that over. And some people are rightfully so going to see the matchup there with Notre Dame and not want to bat on the over. We're calling out he had a very good game against Indiana last year for Old Dominion, and

[09:37] rushing might have had a very big game there as well. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he does end up getting this over 31.5 rush yards. Now, I would say the only way he doesn't get that is if the batter's O-line is just terrible and he's getting

[09:49] some pretty sloppy passing plays where he's being sacked and being kind of careless with those plays. But overall, I do think that ends up being a pretty solid bet to bet on the over. I actually don't mind that bet, or an anytime touchdown bet from guys that

[10:01] are obviously 0.5. He's someone that, again, typically is rushing the football a decent amount. He should be the star of this offense, and if the game does end up staying a little bit close, I really don't mind the idea of getting to that. Now, overall, I

[10:13] could just be looking at this game as probably a biased Badger fan, you know, hopefully optimistic about how this game could go. If you guys want to bet on Notre Dame to be able to cover just giving out poor Wisconsin as Ben Lady, I really don't mind that.

[10:25] I will say it does feel like this is going to be a better year for them overall to end up being completely wrong about that. That's just kind of the vibes going around. Let's go ahead and jump on into some of the Notre Dame profits that we can be on. I would

[10:37] say the market for Notre Dame is much better. Like Jordan Faison is expected to take over as kind of the receiver number one here, guys. I think the lines that we're getting from him are basically correct. some pop line differences and again kind of funny hard rock bet they have not 64.5 receiving yards

[10:52] actually maybe wouldn't mind the under there given that kind of bad line that they have out there I don't mind the idea of betting on his over receiving yards I probably would want to be looking at his over reception but at five I feel like that ends up being a little bit too risky so if you can get

[11:04] that 4.5 I don't mind that obviously you're not going to like the last two games average here kind of a different outlook for this team and again he's expected to be the receiver number one Now I could get behind Amias Williams getting his overrides here It here at 80 Actually I kind of surprised at the line in general Again two of the star running backs for Notre Dame are gone He the one that expected to take over and be the starter there

[11:25] Pretty good old line there. Should be able to defeat the Badgers defensive line there as well. Don't mind that bet. I think a safe and easy bet is just him to score an anytime touchdown. I feel pretty good about that. Was kind of consistently getting those in the previous season when he was the RB3.

[11:39] Again, now expected to be the RB1. Really don't mind that bet in general. And then just worth taking a peek at, guys. Badger kicker over 3.5 kicking points. I do expect a couple of big plays there from Colton Joseph. This really just ends up being a

[11:51] touchdown and then a field goal. I don't see that being that difficult in the week one game. That could end up being a little bit sloppy by the defense where they're not as fluent as you'd want them to be, which could lead

[12:03] to the Badgers being able to get in the scoring position a little bit more consistently. And then if we just take it together from a DFS standpoint, I do think Faison and Williams are two of the better plays in general for Notre Dame. I kind of view them as more

[12:15] core plays for the three-game play. So if you guys are playing DFS, I would absolutely try to get to them. And then for Wisconsin as well, I really don't mind Colton Joseph. He's going to have a pretty high floor rush into football. If we get a rush in TD or

[12:27] a pass in TD, he should be able to really go off. And I really don't mind the idea of attaching him to one of his pass catchers. I think Eugene Hilton is clearly too cheap given his price tag. I really don't mind the idea of chasing. I think that ends up being a pretty good bet.

[12:39] But overall, one of his receivers ends up being a very logical choice. So I do like the idea of trying to get to him at about 20% or so, really depending on how many lines you are submitting. But given the three-game slate, I really don't mind the idea of forcing him into some of our builds.

[12:53] The thing with him is you don't necessarily need to stack him. He's someone that could get there naked, you know, running the football. And so you don't necessarily need to stack him to get in the game script. I don't mind the idea of chasing that. Then we take a peek here at probably the most appealing game on the slate.

[13:06] We got Ole Miss versus Louisville. Six and a half points spread, 55 total points there, guys. So high scoring game, close game. BFF purposes, there's a lot of interesting clicks here. Betting wise, we are getting to some spots that we can get to.

[13:19] I see two really pretty strong bets. And then kind of some just so-so spots just in general. The issue in this game is kind of the fact that the two running backs are kind of just a one-two punch. So that does make it a little bit more random in regards to the production, in regards to predictable production.

[13:35] And so I'm probably just staying away from bets for them in that regard. Big worth calling out to public is clearly on Ole Miss. But at the same time, if you look at some of the sharper books out there, they're actually on Louisville to be able to cover as well.

[13:47] So it's kind of interesting there. I think the way I'm reading that is because the public has, because Ole Miss has a little bit more name value, the Shambles, you know, the quarterback, the public's betting on them more. Whereas some of the books, the sharper books out there,

[14:01] are favoring Louisville a little bit more, probably because the public is shifting the market more than they should. So if we look at Lacey, that's obviously going to be someone that we want to bet on. I expect to have a very good game. rush receiving yards, I don't mind. Rush yards, I don't mind. Anytime touchdown, but I don't mind.

[14:14] I do think basically all the action that we can get from Lacey right now ends up being a correct bet. So at 87.5, I don't mind the over. Now, it is where we're calling out the matchup could be a little bit more difficult on the ground. That is a concern for sure, but I do expect, you know,

[14:28] given the game flow that we have, given his talent, given how good the offense is, especially the flow as well, I don't mind the idea of getting to that over rush yards. I prefer the over rush yards simply because of the game flow like if it is going to be a game in which they are winning

[14:40] I don't mind the idea of being set over I would probably rather just be on the anytime touchdown bet at 0.5 it's a pretty easy bet basically if you guys are playing on like prize picks if you attach this bet onto the slip it doesn't help really at all so not really worth it there make

[14:55] sure you're just placing that bet on the correct site where it's actually going to value the bet in general not actually going to hurt your slip because if you attach this onto a six flip bet actually reduces the payout, or it doesn't change the payout at all. It's the same as a forceless bet, which is insane.

[15:09] Price just needs to figure this out. So make sure you know where you're placing that bet. Make sure it actually makes sense for you to place it. If you don't even want to worry about that, over 87.5 rush hour. And then given the slight negative gain trip there for Louisville,

[15:21] I actually don't mind the idea of getting a Trey Richardson for over his receiving yard here of 49.5. So transfer from last year, so you don't necessarily know how that's going to correlate, but more of a flat receiver, more of an easy completion type of receiver,

[15:34] should end up being the, I don't want to say best receiver for Louisville, but should have the highest floor for a Louisville receiver there. So I really don't mind the idea of Chase. Again, in a game script, that does make sense for him to be able to have a good game where they are potentially playing from behind.

[15:47] Now another one that I think ends up being a little bit more worthwhile is just the over 4.5 receptions. I kind of see these two going hand in hand. If this is going to be a boosted out payout at 4.5 receptions, I'd rather do that.

[15:59] If it's not a standard bet, I'd rather take on that risk here, where we are just kind of meeting the expected game flow of the game, where, again, Louisville could end up having to throw the football a little bit more. And I do think Richardson's going to end up being a little bit more of a security blanket.

[16:12] Therefore, Lincoln team holes. Now, I'll zoom out so you guys can see the bets that we are getting. I don't like Deuce Alexander getting under 4.5 receptions. I probably would be favoring the over. Could end up being the kind of easy target there for Shambles there.

[16:27] And so I probably am staying away from that. and the rest of the bets to me are basically correct again I don't really want to mess with Isaac Brown could end up splitting the workload a little bit game script wise that could end up hurting him as well so I think the rest of the bets that we are basically getting here in this

[16:41] game end up being correct I don't want to force them maybe we'll get some better bets popping up in tomorrow some of the fantasy score bets again tiddly speaking guys for quarterbacks those are some of the better bets fantasy score wise so just gotta look at that for that it's mostly

[16:53] prize picks and underdogs let go ahead and get into my bad of the day for that three or three game flight And I show you guys kind of what I looking at more for DFS purposes So guys we have a fixed event here for you guys It will stay much tighter than I would want it to be

[17:07] I do think we are going to get better bets tomorrow once we start getting a full board, once all the books start placing the bets. I'm doing this video Saturday afternoon when a lot of the college football games are still going on, so a lot of the books just don't have their lines out just yet. This is me trying to get an early edge on some of these bets.

[17:20] and so again for prize-based purposes you wouldn't want to directly copy and paste those bet guys just because if you include these two anytime touchdown bets it's really hurting you in general it's not helping you at all that's for sure so just be careful with

[17:33] that but I do like those two score anytime touchdowns I feel pretty confident that they are going to score a touchdown in that game again game script wise Colton Joseph maybe we worry about the fact that he might not run as much and maybe

[17:45] due to a more passivity script that gets him a little bit more pressure takes sacks like I wouldn't like that there for him. That would actually help out Jacob Parrish get his over 11.5 receiving yards. Then Kirby for his over 9.5 rush attempts. Again,

[17:57] really hoping that Washington State can just keep it close enough long enough. And then Robach. Again, that's really up to you guys what bet you want to get to. I'm fine betting on him to score a touchdown. Anytime touchdown would be preferred, but him to score a receiving touchdown, I'm perfectly fine with that.

[18:09] Now we're going to go ahead and jump into more of the DFS side of that, guys. So it's a three-game slate. I think it's more of a simple slate. The issue that I had, and it was super annoying, every lineup that I really liked, I was $100 off of being able to submit it.

[18:22] So if we just take a peek at the top projected play here, guys, I do view Damon Williams as really kind of a core player, a player that you should be going out of your way to target really as much as possible. To me, that's the top play quarterback-wise.

[18:34] And I do think we want to really just be getting to Williams and Lacey running back-wise as well. I feel like those end up being plays that you should absolutely be trying to go out of your way to target. Those three plays to me are just the absolute highest exposure players that you should be on.

[18:48] receiver-wise we do want to try to obviously game stack our receivers we definitely do but I think the two players that we want to be on is Faison there again more of a high exposure play and then Robach as well I think those two players are going to lead to a pretty high floor for you guys

[19:02] for your DFS builds now after that I will say pricing wise Trey Richardson to me ends up being a pretty interesting click Johnny Cook ends up being a pretty interesting click just given their kind of relatively cheap price tag in games where they are pretty heavy favorites so they could

[19:15] is to be a receiver that doesn't attach to the touchdown there, and I really don't mind them. Now, value-wise, it is a little bit more difficult because I probably want to get to at least one of the Wisconsin receivers. Again, I like Eugene Hilton the most.

[19:27] It'd be interesting to see how his fantasy score does develop throughout the evening and up until game time lock or site lock because he is someone that, again, I don't think the Bucs are necessarily properly valuing him,

[19:39] and so I do expect him to have a good game and be the receiver number one there for the Badgers. That's why I was a little bit hesitant to place him on my best of those, kind of just because some of these DFS platforms are not necessarily expecting that.

[19:51] So I don't know if I love that, love that. But I do think getting to one of the Badgers does make a lot of sense. And, again, I do want to begin to summer Colton Joseph as well. That's kind of the route that I'm going. So if we just go ahead and make 20 builds here, this is what the data is telling us are some of the top builds,

[20:05] which I'm perfectly fine with that. Again, I really like the idea of getting to both the Williams, Lacey in there as well. what I don't like is necessarily the receivers that we're being told to get onto because it's really valuing like two stud quarterbacks here guys so

[20:18] kind of interesting in regards to how the lineup builders are going to probably view the site versus how I view it where this ended up being the kind of first build I wanted to give out to you guys which I did not necessarily love it because

[20:30] we're not getting to a super flex quarterback again every single lineup that I got to was a lineup in which I could not make the quarterback work initially I did want to get to Colton Joseph just because of his high floor that I think he'll have and probably

[20:43] maybe a little bit lower ownership than maybe he should just get in the match with Notre Dame. I kind of understand why people wouldn't want to be on him. But my issue is I didn't want to get off of Fajan or Richardson who I do really like.

[20:55] I also wanted to get to Robach there as well if I could. But my biggest problem was having a logical, grounded back play with Colton Joseph. I mean I guess Freeman here wouldn't be terrible. I just didn't necessarily love that. Again, I probably

[21:07] would want to get to one of his pass catchers who We're all a little bit too cheap. So it's kind of ending up on not having what I would view as kind of the optimal lineup approach to go with for this slate. I will say, I do think Johnny Cook ends up being a great value.

[21:19] Definitely a 4.5, definitely too cheap, I would say. But this is kind of what I'd be looking at. Again, Macy Williams, Williams kind of cash. Really like the top receivers, obviously, on the slate. If you didn't want to get to Colton Joseph, understandable.

[21:33] You get to King Holtz, and then you're looking at a flex value. Maybe then you could get to one of the badger receivers there. But they're all just priced up enough to the point where you can't necessarily make that work. So, again, you guys could see how very frustrating to make lineups

[21:47] and kind of why the lineups that they're trying to force into quarterbacks is ending up with the way it's looking at. Where, again, I didn't necessarily love some of the back-end receivers that I was telling us to get to. Which maybe that just ends up being the site that we have.

[21:59] But that's going to do it for this video. I do appreciate you guys being here. Make sure to leave a like on the video. Guys, subscribe to the channel. So, again, that prop betting tool that you guys saw is a tool that I'm working on finalizing and getting available on the 9to5sports.com website.

[22:13] But that college football DFS lineup optimizer is available for 9to5 site members. So if you guys are interested in using that tool, you guys can head on over to 9to5sports.com, sign up, get access to that for only $10 a month. We're calling out still all the other prop betting tools are still there.

[22:26] Prop betting optimizer, prop betting cheat sheets are all available for you guys as well. All the NFL tools are working as well. But that's going to do it for today. I appreciate you being here. Good luck with all the bets that you do end up placing on this slate. Subscribe to the channel if you have not done so before.

[22:39] And as always, let's keep cashing.