Sharp, Profitable Sports Betting Strategies

[00:18] What's up, guys? I got another coffee and I am ready for another live stream. I'm gonna live stream for like 30 minutes, try to hammer out some NBA bets,

[00:33] and then I'm going to go to bed. And then I'm going to go to bed.

[00:47] hear me? Sorry, I just had to pee. [snorts] Is everybody How's everyone doing? Happy. I'm uh [snorts] [ __ ] man. I'm going to live stream for 30 minutes. We got a lot of

[01:02] NBA games, I think, starting at 5. [snorts] So, I'm going to rip some plays and then I'm going to go to bed. Yep. 5 536. A lot of late games today.

[01:14] to try to put some plays together. We'll see how much value is out there. And then hopefully we got some nice wins. You feel me, dude? We got football tomorrow. I mean, we have football today, but it's some trash ass college

[01:27] football games. We have NFL tomorrow, but that's also a trash ass game, dude. night because there's not going to be anything else on TV. Boy, how's everyone doing? Let's get going. [snorts] So, pick six doesn't

[01:42] have a ton of value. I mean, there's like one really good college play, but [clears throat] So, let's see some of these other sports books. Trailblazers, I already bet that in the past live stream. It really seems like

[01:58] Prize picks has really been popping since NBA started. For example, check out this play. Yo yo, check out this play. Derek Queen to record an assist. play. Derek Queen to record an assist. This play is absolutely crazy. Okay,

[02:17] is wrong with you? Kent State [ __ ] sucks. Alex, come party in San Diego. Yo, so we're starting out on prize picks. The first play I'm going to go with, this play is absolutely crazy, is Derek Queen over one and a half assists.

[02:31] His under is literally offered at plus 150. He is a massive favorite to go over one and a half assists. You don't have to look at his last five graph. All of that [ __ ] is priced into the market. It is priced in. He had seven assists last

[02:47] game. Didn't he used to play for Maryland or am I crazy? We got Derek Queen over one and a half assists. That play is crazy. and a half assists. That play is crazy. This play is also crazy. Cedric Coward

[02:59] under 15 and a half PA. So, this is in the Grizzlies Rockets game. Look at all of this liquidity being offered on his over at like plus 136. He is a huge underdog to go over. That is what these really sharp peer-to-peer betting

[03:15] exchanges are telling you. If they're offering you as over at plus 136, they want to be on as under at minus 136. And on prize picks for a threeman, 136. And on prize picks for a threeman, you're getting minus 122 juice. [snorts]

[03:29] And dude, we already got some NFL plays showing up, so [ __ ] it. Here's what we're going to do. First things first, I'm going to get a threeman locked in. And then we're going to get more ballsy and we can run a five or a six pick flex

[03:42] Does that sound like a good plan? Yo, this is the threeman. Get it locked in. Can somebody please put the link in the chat? Three pick entry. This Derek Queen play is absolutely insanely good. So, we got to run it in two slips. So, we're

[03:56] going to get in a threeman again on prize picks. You know, five six pick prize picks. You know, five six pick flex plays. If you break down the math, those are technically mathematically optimal. But three play three pick

[04:08] entries, they're not like that much different. So sometimes I'll just run a three pick entry, especially if the plays are absurdly good and I'm worried plays are absurdly good and I'm worried about [ __ ] getting bumped.

[04:24] Marcus Smart under one and a half threes in the Spurs game. Sure. So let's get in the fiveman. I'm going to take Marcus Smart under one and a half threes. And with? There's a bunch of promos on like

[04:38] DraftKings pick six. Unfortunately, nothing on prize picks. nothing on prize picks. Josh Aogi under one and a half assists.

[04:51] No. So Josh Kogi under one and a half assists. Cedric Coward under. So that's for the Grizzlies. Unfortunately, they just bumped probably the best play, [snorts] but that's okay.

[05:05] And then we have Moses Moody over 15 and a half PA. So these are the five best picks available on prize picks right now again like and it looks like they bumped Moody. Damn, bro. So now these bumps are kind

[05:19] of coming in these books. They saw me live streaming. live streaming. They get nervous.

[05:36] I mean, I don't mind this. We're on this already on pick six. Dear's a Demar's a huge favorite to make a three. I mean, his unders offered at plus 126. Less niche market. Sorry. Here's the full play. [snorts] So, here you can see if I

[05:52] pick Flex Play. Yo, can somebody put the link in the chat? I'm trying to rip some late night bets. Um, so we got four unders and then we got one over which is Demar. [snorts] So let's get it going. So I'm going to get

[06:05] let's get it going. So I'm going to get that locked in and um then we can look at some other books. What do you guys want to look at? Yo, thank you Joey M for putting the link in the chat. Some people are saying underdog.

[06:23] [snorts] Why not? People want to do underdog. We Why not? People want to do underdog. We can rip underdog.

[06:40] and Dabble. Again, there's a bunch of different fixed payout DFS apps. All these books, I mean, they all give you a three 3x payout for two pick entries. I

[06:52] point a 6x payout for three pick entries, but payouts start to kind of picks. [snorts] So, let's see what we can do. Let's get

[07:04] going, boys. Let's get going. Okay, so the first play I'm going to go with, I'm Again, you're probably going to want to tail quick if you want to tail on underdog just because they bump things absurdly fast. I mean, on Underdog, if

[07:20] actually give you the best payouts in the DFS industry. Six pick flex plays are optimal, but I mean, sometimes getting six picks locked in on Underdog, it's not like an easy excursion to say the least, because sometimes they bump

[07:35] the least, because sometimes they bump this [ __ ] super fast. [snorts] So, we got two picks. Dude, there is a lot of [ __ ] right now, though. Stephen Castle under 19 and a half

[07:50] Stephen Castle under 19 and a half points. Sheesh, man. So again, I'm trying to build a six-man. Stephven Castle heavy build a six-man. Stephven Castle heavy liquidity on his over at plus 120. If

[08:03] his over is offered at plus 120, then his under is the favored more likely outcome. Yo, is Luca still out? No, Luca's playing tonight. Damn. So, it's a lot of the same picks, but who really gives a [ __ ] underdog. Actually, they

[08:16] unfortunately, I'm limited on underdog, so I'm not even going to be able to bet much regardless, but that's okay. What the [ __ ] Brandon Williams, where are you? Under one and a half. What was

[08:31] this? Brandon Williams, under one and a half rebounds. Sure, whatever. Yo, six pick entry. Again, you want to run these sixmans as a flex play. Literally all unders. It's a very simple strategy. You don't need to know anything about Drew

[08:45] Holiday. You don't know need to know how he performed last game. Historical data. It's all priced into the market, dude. On these super sharp exchanges with trading firms setting lines, his over is literally What did they just bump? What

[08:59] did they just bump? Did they bump anything? Stephen Castle, they bumped, right? Am I crazy? What else did they bump? Did they bump anything else? Drew under Westbrook under 25 half Marcus

[09:16] So we got to find a replacement for that. So maybe D Rozan to record a three. I don't really have a problem with that. I mean I feel like I'm on this a few different times, but that's okay. [sighs]

[09:31] [snorts] Uh so that's going to be my replacement pick. Yo, so here you we here you have another six pick flex play on underdog.

[09:44] It's beautiful. Six pick flex play. Okay, [snorts] optimal slip type when you break down the math. I've made YouTube videos on that. So, I'm going to get it locked in again. A couple things I wanted to

[09:57] mention on the live stream. You know, definitely join the SA Discord. A lot of times if it's late at night, I'm too lazy to live stream.

[10:11] everywhere now. It's not like I'm actively looking to get Saratoga water. It's just this shit's everywhere. Better, better, better, please. Better. Let's see what we got on better. I already ran a better slip today, so

[10:26] unfortunately I'm not going to be able to actually get a slip locked in myself. Uh, but if there is a promo, the two best picks available are Rashad White

[10:38] under 47 and a half rushing yards and Clint Capella under six and a half rebounds. Again, these are other, you know, better Jake Paul's app. It's another fixed payout fantasy site. Works the same way. Take a player over, under,

[10:51] same payout. Um, but anyways, shut the [ __ ] up, Alex. Let's get going on this uh pick six slip. I absolutely love pick six. Alex, why do you like pick six? they don't really bump [ __ ] So, let's see if we have time to get in a pick six

[11:07] slit. So, Josh Aaki under and assists. Every sports book has his under. Massively favored. I'm already on it. Like, I'm kind of good there,

[11:36] you guys like it? Yo, what do we think about Kaminga under 24 and a half points? I mean, this play is kind of interesting. Like, obviously FanDuel under heavily favored. Same thing with Novig. Granted, not a ton of liquidity

[11:50] in the market. I mean, barely any. Hard Rock. A lot of these sports books have his over at like plus 140. So if his over is plus 140, obviously his under is over is plus 140, obviously his under is the favored more likely outcome.

[12:08] are you [ __ ] [clears throat] kidding me? And they already bumped it. Dude, I hate this book sometimes. I hate some of these sports books. Yo, D Rozan 3 is my bad. That's also available on better. So you could just run if you wanted to. You

[12:23] could just pair these three picks together. Have a really good better slip locked in, but I'm trying to do a pick six slip. I mean, the frustrating part is they just bumped the one pick I wanted to be on for sure. Um, so let's

[12:36] do pre-match live betting on these like, you know, parlay only Bucks is a little you know, parlay only Bucks is a little challenging in my opinion. Kevin Durant under 35 and a half Pas. I mean, that looks solid, but it doesn't

[12:50] make a ton of sense to pair with Josh Kogi's under. Kogi's under. That's so annoying, man. Come on, dude.

[13:05] I was ready to go. I was ready to lock it in. Um, but that's okay. Don't be so mad, Alex. Life is good, right? Life is good. good. So

[13:23] Josh's under. Perfect. What else do you got for me? want to move on to Dabble. So we have Max Christie under 19 and a half Pas. FanDuel has the under as a minus 154 favorite. You can see all the other DFS

[13:38] books and [ __ ] too. They just have the line lower in the first place at like 18 and a half. But I'm trying to think of what is the final play I want to pair here. AJ Mitchell over 14 and a half points.

[13:54] AJ Mitchell over 14 and a half points. So, let's see here. What do we think about Mitchell? Dude, I feel like AJ Mitchell's been pretty solid so far this season, but obviously I want to check the data first. That is

[14:07] profitable [ __ ] sports better. [snorts] So, let's see the Thunder game. When is the Thunder game? Oh [ __ ] it's the late night game. 10-10. Is SGA not playing? I'm very

[14:21] surprised. I mean, the Trailblazers, we bet on them plus four and a half. They are not big underdogs. So, where is AJ Mitchell? Weird. So, they only have up to 13 and a half for him on the alt points on

[14:35] FanDuel. Where is he? And they have him at 15 and a half. What do you guys think, man? Do we like AJ Mitchell? I think we do. Unless AJ Mitchell? I think we do. Unless something new came up. Let's see.

[14:58] of data points two under under under

[15:10] Yeah, I'm gonna smash it. All right, so this is what I'm getting locked in. I'm very curious to actually see how much they take on this. So, let me zoom in so people can see it. This is what I'm going to get locked in.

[15:23] And they're just going to give me 500 bucks, which which obviously isn't horrible. I mean, I would have preferred more, but that's okay. So, where does Prize Pick? Prize Pix has this line a full point higher at 15 and a half. So,

[15:36] definitely seems decent. I mean, right? Not horrible. locked in. It's right here. Okay. Three pick entry. Let's [snorts] see what other books we have, though. Thank you for putting the pick six link in the

[15:51] for putting the pick six link in the chat. Make the cam smaller. Yes. Nuke AJ. Alex. Oxy saved my life. Hey, Alex. How are you? What's up, Mr. Mangoy? Alex, are you watching the NBA game right now? Dude, I'm literally live

[16:06] streaming. Do you think I'm watching an NBA game? [ __ ] question is this? What kind of question is that? But let's see here. Flip rebet. What else do we want to do? Oh [ __ ] We could have run Looney under in points as well. Shoot. Maybe I

[16:21] under in points as well. Shoot. Maybe I should have done that. So Max Christie, that's the one they limited me on. So what was it? Looney limited me on. So what was it? Looney under five and a half points

[16:35] in the Pel's game. His over is a plus 130 underdog. So His over is a plus 130 underdog. So maybe this play they'll give me more on. can't bet on Josh Kogi anymore." What the [ __ ] bro?

[16:51] Um, let's see. There's a [ __ ] ton of value available on Dabble. Does anyone know the best Dabble shields? But let me just see here. So, let's go here.

[17:03] Why am I trying to do more pick six? Shoot. I didn't mean to select live. Shoot. I didn't mean to select live. Come on, dude. Um, is there any other picks I absolutely am in love with? Max Christy

[17:17] under 12 and a half points seems pretty solid, but I'm not sure if they're going to let me run that since I already ran his P line, but we can try. No, they will. So, we have Christy Mitchell. So, let's

[17:33] So, we have Christy Mitchell. So, let's see here. Christy Mitchell. Okay. So, this is what I'm going to get locked in. Yo, three pick entry on DraftKings pick six. Do [snorts] you guys want to do some dabble slips or what?

[17:45] some dabble slips or what? Shall we rip some dabble slips? Sam Phillips over 12 and a half receiving yards.

[17:58] in for today. E, Dude, I drank way too much coffee today. [ __ ] I am like not feeling good. My

[18:13] stomach kind of hurts. That's okay. That's okay. Um,

[18:26] something. It's weird. It's very weird. Um, just see very quickly. So, yeah. I mean, Max Christie, I don't really know. They

[18:40] just have his line too high. Literally, every other book has him at 11 and a half. So, this seems, you know, pretty damn good. Pretty damn good value if I say so myself.

[18:59] we want to bet on the book with value. And right now, it seems like [snorts] And right now, it seems like [snorts] dabble has a fair amount of value. dabble has a fair amount of value. So, let's rip a dabble slip.

[19:29] Jaylen Williams three-point shield. Sam Phillips reception yards is crazy on Phillips reception yards is crazy on dabble. So, I will take a look at that. Just give me one sec. So

[19:44] people are saying what has crazy value right now? What has crazy value? I see. Dude, Dabble is ridiculous. I mean, this book has so much [ __ ] I know not everyone can play uh college football, but look

[19:58] can play uh college football, but look at this play on Kamari or sorry, no, at this play on Kamari or sorry, no, Kamari Molton. So, we have Kamari Molton under 66 and a half rushing yards. He's gone over the previous games, but Iowa

[20:13] much better team. They're probably going to be down. They'll probably be passing the ball more in the second half. All that [ __ ] is priced into the odds. The market, it's not going to be priced into last five grabs, you [ __ ] [ __ ] who

[20:27] use that. But anyways, let's see. Dude, there are a ton of line discrepancies. I mean, here's another one. Like, this is absolutely insane. Whoops. Owen McCoen, what a name. over 218 half. Literally every other Buck has his line 21 yards

[20:43] higher at like 239 and a half. Absolute smash right here. And that's actually a college football game for tomorrow. Dude, there is so much [ __ ] there. There's I I I could literally sit here all night and play profitable slips. I

[20:58] like it's overwhelming. This book is absolutely overwhelming. The only problem about it is again I'm just limited. I know not everyone can play college, so like this is the problem, dude. The

[21:11] [ __ ] 945 max bet size. They're like, "Yo, what I'm going to do, I mean, there's limitless college value. It's absolutely insane right now. But what I'm going to do is try to find some other things.

[21:27] So we have Westbrook under and pas. Again, cross market bets are the best type because you just have the highest confidence in your edge. is over with a high amount of liquidity on these peer-to-peer betting exchanges, right?

[21:40] You really want to focus on the liquidity. So, here you have 2.3K. That's a [ __ ] ton of money for a player prop that is not your neighbor. That is Citadel [ __ ] Securities. That is a trading firm, a market maker. Their

[21:52] offering is over at plus 129. So, we know the under is the much more likely outcome. [snorts] Hoy, I literally could just sit here and rip bets on this book the entire night. It's

[22:04] absolutely insane. Crazy good slept right here. Thank you. What else do you got? DeAndre Swift. Maybe people are like, "Eh, I don't love Maybe people are like, "Eh, I don't love DeAndre Swift because uh I don't know.

[22:17] Maybe you don't like football because uh you don't want to wait till Sunday." Whatever. That's fine. We have Steven Castle under 31 and a half Pas, Castle under 31 and a half Pas, dude. you just and again they limit me

[22:32] to $9 when I used to be able to at least bet like $50 per slip when I first started to get limited. I would just keep copying my entries. I would replace one of the picks and I would just lock in a new slip to kind of get around the

[22:47] limits. Unfortunately, at this point, that's not as fruitful of an endeavor that's not as fruitful of an endeavor when you're only getting a $10 bet size. Yo, so we have an NFL play for tomorrow. Bo Nicks under five and a half rushing

[23:00] attempts. Smash again. Dabble just he's gone under literally all the past games, but it looks like they just bumped it. There's Looney under six and a half rebounds. So, let's see this again. Like, I always

[23:16] say this, but it's really true is as a sports better, you literally are just trying to lock in as many bets with an edge as possible. Maybe you don't use edge as possible. Maybe you don't use dabble. Maybe you do use dabble.

[23:29] But the more bets with an edge you lock in, the bigger your sample size of bets in your portfolio. If all your bets are actually profitable and have an edge, as the sample size grows, you're guaranteed

[23:42] to make money. That's just the law of large numbers at work. large numbers at work. You feel me, dude? You feel me? Um,

[23:59] Can you show some Hard Rock plays, please? Yes, sure. Why do Dude, why does everyone man want Hard Rock always? Hard Rock's a ridiculous book. So, there's value on Trailblazers plus five and a half. I mean, this play's absolutely

[24:14] better betting limits on it. Unfortunately, I'm not in a state where Hard Rock's legal right now. Unfortunately, I will be soon. But you can see this plays absolutely insane. I mean, minus 130. It's across market.

[24:30] It's arbitrage with Novig. It's arbitrage with Profitex. High amounts of liquidity. And again, whenever arbitrage exists, you can bet equal and opposite exists, you can bet equal and opposite outcomes. Trailblazers on Hard Rock plus

[24:44] 5 and a half minus 130. On novig, you could bet the thunder on the spread. Guarantee a risk-free profit. You know, one of the two bets has to be plus EV. If you can play both outcomes if you can arbitrage bet hedge for a guaranteed

[24:58] profit. This is just the odd sham orb tool. So, you could just arbitrage bet it, take the risk-free money, but you know, Hard Rock is literally the dumbest sports book in the world. It is literally insanely stupid. So, the value

[25:11] is on the Hard Rock play. And you could parlay these together. If every bet in your parlay is plus EV, your parlay is going to be plus EV. Klay Thompson under two and a half rebounds plus 120. Smash high liquidity. Market makers offering

[25:24] is over at minus 116, which means they want to be on his under at plus 116. You're essentially copying their homework, getting better odds. They want to get the under at plus 116 and you're getting plus 120. It's arbitrage. You

[25:38] profitable. PJ Washington assists. I mean, dude, this place's [ __ ] insane, bro. Why do you guys think I got multiple phones, dude? Um, I mean, that's just a

[25:51] massive arbitrage bet, right? If you want to put 250 on Hard Rock, you could hedge bet 2201.86, follow an ARB calculator on Profitex, you're going to make 1623 risk-free profit. The second the game ends in two and a half hours,

[26:06] you're going to be 1623 richer. If you want to bet 500, okay, cool. bet 500, want to bet 500, okay, cool. bet 500, make 3247 risk-f free, right? But anyways, I think we cleared out a lot of the good value. Let's see if there's

[26:20] anything else on prize picks. So, Hard Rock always has a ton of [ __ ] It's just I'm not in a state right now where I have Hard Rock. Prize picks and dabble DL over in PAS. Dude, now DLO points is

[26:36] ripping. What the [ __ ] So we have DLO over 15 and a half points. Actually like this play better. So we have DLO over in points. This play looks crazy good. His unders offered at plus 140. Smash. [snorts]

[26:51] Um Brandon Williams under one and a half rebounds. His overs offered at plus 129. Again on prize picks for a threeman. You're getting them. And do I like pairing those together? I think that's

[27:04] fine, right? I don't think there's any correlation to worry about there.

[27:16] and pas? Is this solid? Is this beautiful? I don't know. Like I don't love pairing so many picks together from the same game when I'm not positive on the correlation.

[27:30] But I I think this is solid. I mean, I see no reason not to. Also, the edge on this DL low play is crazy. There's nothing that's like noticeably wrong

[27:44] obviously you don't want to pair like DLO over in points and want to take two players on the same team, one to go over or both to go over.

[27:57] I apologize. Like you don't for the NBA you don't want to stack Shay over in points, Jaylen Williams over in points. They kind of compete for points. So They kind of compete for points. So taking one over, one under is slightly

[28:09] very slightly positively correlated. I mean NBA correlation is nothing like football correlation. But anyways, that's a solid play. I'm going to call it a day for now. See you guys. I love you.