Crypto Alert: See This!!!

[00:00] pretty obvious, right? We're in the outrageous zone right here. If you believe that Bitcoin is going to not collapse to zero, then this is a fantastic price, not just in relation to its trend, but also versus other assets.

[00:12] Gold pumped, Nasdaq pumped, semiconductors pumped, right? But Bitcoin went in a bear market. So, look forward. What do you want to buy? Do you pumped, or do you want to buy Bitcoin when it's weak in relation to those?

[00:24] Right? You would have to suggest that over the next few years, just a a slight move to the upside, a not even like a huge bull market, but slight move in Bitcoin, is going to outperform those because you're buying this thing when

[00:37] those. Bitcoin has a growth rate, we know that. Every bear market is actually good. It clears out the detritus and the bad ideas, and they collapse and they don't climb out, but Bitcoin does cuz it's the best idea. We all know that. We

[00:50] that we've moved up to presidential level pump and dumps. billion dollars out of this pump and dump is absolutely awful. Presidential level pump and dumps. Right? FTX and Luna collapsed, didn't come back. We had

[01:04] BitConnect, right? If you're if you're that old, every cycle we have these pump and whatever else that collapse and don't come back, but Bitcoin always does. Bitcoin goes down, clears them all out.

[01:17] then it starts to climb up again. That's the cycle, right? And we're in the outrageous point. If you do trade Bitcoin or dollar cost assets as well, you can trade everything on Bybit. Mike are regulated in Europe

[01:30] as well. Um click the link in the description if you're not a user yet. deposit on the Bybit platform, they'll give you a bonus to trade with via that for Bitcoin. You can see it, I can see it, the data shows that. We're still

[01:44] and we fundamentally believe in the idea of Bitcoin. The exchange rate versus dollars is quite weak in relation to its all-time It's also a higher price than than been for 98% of its history. So, everyone

[01:58] bear market." Compared to the all-time high price that it got to. Compared to history, we're higher than that. So, where are we in a bear market or bull narratives all the time, which is totally fine if you're a narrative

[02:13] don't want to be in Bitcoin now. But, if you believe in the idea, if you believe this is unbelievable in terms of its exchange rate versus dollars, but also if you look at the exchange rate versus Nasdaq and gold, it's very weak, which

[02:26] is good because that means if you buy now, you should be outperforming when Bitcoin has its next leg higher. Is it 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, couple of years? Who cares, right? Who actually cares about that? Unless

[02:38] have to be in something else right now. That's the thing. Traders come in, traders come out. Whatever, that's fine. You can be a still have a trading portfolio where you just trade prices well, which is, you

[02:51] that. Look, the money comes in during the highs, it pukes out during the lows. is coming off or is the puke happening because of price? That's it. We have these. We have to clear out all the detritus, and then the

[03:06] best idea can move forward. Slightly worrying is that the NUPL here, max pain index, does show up at the bottom of bear markets. We haven't had that yet So, do we have to go a little bit lower even? Do we have to go into the 40s or

[03:21] really like massive puke? Maybe, maybe we don't. Something to keep an eye on, right? The buy zone, the the bear market kind of everything's bad zone, and that's typically, I think, a good time to just buy the asset that you love. I'm

[03:35] not a narrative chaser. I don't want to buy something that I don't genuinely like and believe in. Um because I have done that before, where this cuz it's, you know, it's everyone's getting in and everything." And then it

[03:48] own this thing? I don't even want I don't even like this thing. Right? With me. Like I've sat in multiple bear Yeah, it can go lower. That's fine. I'll just keep buying. I know I I

[04:02] That's what I'm excited about. I'm not really excited about trading prices up particularly that much. Right? But the problem is, right? Thousands are queuing for hours in Central Sydney to buy gold. That was

[04:15] January this year, which is here, at the peak. It's the same cycle over and over again, right? Which is when prices are low, no everyone's interested. So, what are these people doing now? Are they puking

[04:29] out? Are they keeping their gold? Are they dollar cost averaging? Or what's the trade now? Right? Everything's outperformed Bitcoin. It's like, shouldn't you buy the Bitcoin instead if you really like that? Look,

[04:41] fundamentally, right? Bitcoin, what Bitcoin is is an idea. And nodes and the mining, everything else, technologies. They're a bunch of different technologies that were put

[04:54] together to affect the idea. And the idea is what Bitcoin is, not the tech. Not that. I understand that you need that to affect the idea, but the real that we have a digital sound money. That's the idea. And we need to affect

[05:07] that. Now, I'm not worried about quantum or anything else. If you think that quantum destroys the idea, then you don't believe in the idea, which is quantum is going to come, cryptographic techniques are going to improve, and

[05:19] guess what? Bitcoin is going to have to improve and change. But you believe in the idea, right? You believe that humans need this. Right? You need sound money, digital

[05:31] sound money. And we use these digital cryptographic, you know, techniques, encryption, nodes, mining, all of that. We use that. And that's a means to an end to affect the idea of Bitcoin. And that will change over time. That will

[05:45] upgrade over time. That will be attacked over time. It should be because the only way you become healthy is by being attacked and so you can defend yourself, right? So, Bitcoin must be attacked. And if you're so weak to be scared about

[05:59] I don't think you deserve the rewards, right? Because the rewards only come from dedication, hard work, right? And saying, "No, I'm going to I'm going to needs to persevere through quantum, through upgrades, for everything else,

[06:13] If you believe in the idea, then you know that we can see through that. And computer systems that we invent, how are they going to attack Bitcoin that's also something that we invent? So, this is necessary, quantum is necessary. I think

[06:27] the the network upgrades and you either believe in the idea or not. If you think it's valuable cuz it's got this crypto thing." That's not it. That's not the valuable thing. The valuable thing is the idea of sound money and believing

[06:40] that humans value that above all else. I believe that. So, I believe in care about the specific details. Actually not interesting to me. I think Bitcoin is the best idea and we've discovered digital techniques to

[06:53] just see it, right? You can just This is Anyway, this is the exchange rate versus And so, dollars will continue to the base, but it's also that sound money actually works. And we're going to upgrade and defend the

[07:07] network because the idea is worth defending. I know crypto prices are in the dirt at the moment, but you can see the fundamentals building out of this And what is crypto now? The problem is, right? Crypto valuations got so high

[07:20] um there was this kind of assumption that uh crypto was going to be the next be the next Facebook where everyone used Ethereum directly and everyone knew what Ethereum was and everyone would use a MetaMask wallet on Ethereum. That's not

[07:34] What's what's playing out here is that Ethereum and other blockchains and one infrastructure for institutions. And the institutions are issuing huge amounts of stocks, bonds, dollars, etc. on them. But they're not the kind of uh retail

[07:49] facing Facebook branded network that we thought they might be. And so, valuations have had to come way off to value them as more background play out? I don't really know, but valuations are very soft. You've got a

[08:02] is great. in, right? Fundamentals improving, price very soft. I think that's a good place to be. Now, for me personally, I just I'm not kind of interested in trying to

[08:14] coins. I just don't want to do it anymore. I think Bitcoin Bitcoin's in a I know that's fine. Um so, for me personally, no, but you can just see the fundamentals, right? Ondo, X stocks, Robinhood, Coinbase is doing this on

[08:28] base. These are ETFs, right? They're just going up into the right. You can stablecoins, all going up into the right. Like it's for it's Amazon back in not not making any money, that's a bad idea, etc. Their revenue is just going

[08:43] is going like this, right? It's pretty obvious. Where does the valuation come you've got fundamentals improving and very soft prices. Um this not an right? It's going to go over. What happens is the good ideas go bear and

[08:59] just go up. And all the bad ideas actually fall off. But tokenization of stocks, dollars, etc., that's not going to go away, right? It's clearly happening. Uh in terms of inflation, which we need to come down for I think

[09:11] the next kind of phase, it is coming down, right? You can see 5-year forwards are pretty soft right now. That's good. Inflation expectations coming down. The looking at the inflation coming through from the war and everything like that.

[09:25] They can't just say, "Now the war's over, let's go." They can't say that, right? They They are by definition slow and reactive. So, they have to wait for actually the inflation prints to come out lower. But it seems like that's

[09:38] going to happen now that oil is flowing around the world. Break even, you know, right? Inflation expectations coming down, that's good news. Just wait for down, that's good news. Just wait for the Fed, right? They can't go now, but

[09:51] what's necessary. Kevin Kevin Warsh here saying, "Look, know, diverge from that." 2% of what though? 2% of their metric, core PCE ex food and energy.

[10:06] Okay, so if you don't need to eat or use any energy, everything's fine. Not way above that, right? So, they have to wait for that to come down. it's going to come off a little bit. Yeah, maybe it gets to the twos and they

[10:19] start to ease off again, right? Um not not yet. But anyway, 2% is not the real It's all fake anyway. Real rate of inflation is whatever the S&P goes up at, 10, 12, 15%, right? So, that's what we're actually looking at. Um but look,

[10:34] how do you how do you defend against that? Buy strong assets and they will go up. And when Bitcoin is in a bear market, you're looking at forward returns if you assume the growth rate of 30%, looking

[10:47] over time. You've got to play the asset game, right? Even Warsh is saying, in dollars, we're going to debase you. You've got to be in something, right? If it's not Bitcoin, Nasdaq, S&P, choose your fighter, but you've got to

[11:01] anything else, you can trade it on Bybit. Click the link in the a deposit, they'll give you a deposit bonus to trade with. I'm James as in Mazeej, cheers to watching and I'll see you in the next one.