Why You Can't Sell Bitcoin Now
45sThe blunt 'dog' analogy and the challenge of holding through a downturn resonate with investors' pain points.
▶ Play ClipAI Summary
The video discusses Bitcoin's recent underperformance, framing it as a long-term savings asset that experiences cyclical dips. The speaker argues that the current 'dog' phase is an opportunity to buy, drawing parallels to billionaire Jim Ratcliffe's strategy of buying undervalued assets. The video also touches on geopolitical events, commodity performance, and the importance of a long-term investment horizon.
Chapters
[00:01]
Bitcoin's Current 'Dog' Phase
Bitcoin has been a 'complete and total dog' for 2 years, making it impossible to sell for traders. The speaker emphasizes that selling during a downturn is not an option; the game is to take a 5-10 year view.
[00:31]
The Best or Worst Performing Asset
Bitcoin is either the best or worst performing asset depending on the year. The key is to remain interested when it's underperforming, as that's where the money is made.
[01:01]
Bitcoin as Luxury Savings
Bitcoin is defined as 'luxury savings' – a long-duration, long-term savings asset. The market showed a positive reaction to the ceasefire announcement, indicating good news.
[01:26]
Geopolitical Impact on Savings
War in a region cuts off energy and fertilizer supplies, leading to higher prices, reduced GDP, and less savings and investment. This makes it impossible for savings to not be affected.
[01:51]
Commodities Are Not Investments
Commodities have only gone up 1.9% a year over the last 15 years, and are down inflation-adjusted. Buying them after a 40% spike is not a good long-term strategy; they are 'garbage' as investments.
[02:18]
Bitcoin's Long-Term Growth Rate
Bitcoin's long-term growth rate is 30% a year. The opportunity is to buy when savings are cheap, taking advantage of cycles when others are not interested.
[02:31]
Jim Ratcliffe's Investment Strategy
Jim Ratcliffe, a UK billionaire, made his money by buying businesses at good prices when others didn't want them, repeating this process over and over.
[03:11]
Day Trading News Headlines
Recent market moves were driven by news headlines (e.g., Trump's strike plans) that were already traded. Day trading such headlines is not a path to wealth; instead, find good growth assets at fair prices.
[03:51]
The Dog Phase is the Buying Opportunity
Just as Jim Ratcliffe bought unwanted businesses, buying Bitcoin when no one is interested is the right move. Buying at peaks is the worst time.
[04:17]
Survive the Dips
The key is to survive the dips in personal finances, so that when the next cycle peaks, you can benefit. Bitcoin's growth rate is 30% a year, and the opportunity is to be active when others are uninterested.
[04:58]
Sponsorship: Bybit
The speaker promotes Bybit as a trading platform, offering a deposit bonus up to $30,000 via the link in the description.
The video concludes that Bitcoin's current underperformance is a buying opportunity for long-term investors. By adopting a contrarian approach and surviving the dips, investors can capitalize on Bitcoin's 30% annual growth rate, similar to Jim Ratcliffe's value investing strategy.
Mentioned in this Video
Study Flashcards (5)
What is Bitcoin defined as in the video?
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What is Bitcoin defined as in the video?
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Bitcoin is defined as 'luxury savings' – a long-duration, long-term savings asset.
01:01
What is Bitcoin's long-term growth rate per year?
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What is Bitcoin's long-term growth rate per year?
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30% a year.
02:18
What is the long-term annual growth rate of commodities over the last 15 years?
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What is the long-term annual growth rate of commodities over the last 15 years?
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1.9% a year, and they are down inflation-adjusted.
01:51
According to the video, what is the best time to buy Bitcoin?
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According to the video, what is the best time to buy Bitcoin?
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When it is underperforming and no one is interested, i.e., during the 'dog' phase.
03:51
What strategy did Jim Ratcliffe use to become a billionaire?
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What strategy did Jim Ratcliffe use to become a billionaire?
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He bought businesses at good prices when other people didn't want them, repeating this over and over.
02:31
💡 Key Takeaways
💡
Bitcoin as Luxury Savings
Provides a clear definition of Bitcoin's role as a savings asset, framing its long-term value proposition.
01:01
📊
30% Annual Growth Rate
Gives a concrete number for Bitcoin's expected long-term growth, supporting the investment thesis.
02:18
⚖️
Jim Ratcliffe's Strategy
Uses a real-world example of value investing to illustrate the principle of buying undervalued assets.
02:31
⚖️
Survive the Dips
Emphasizes the importance of financial resilience to benefit from cyclical market movements.
04:17Full Transcript
[00:01] complete and total dog for 2 years, right? It just has been. And you can't sell dogs. Yeah? Like, if you're a sell trader or right? You can't sell dogs. It's a It's impossible.
[00:16] When this thing is up 80% after the war, it's easy to sell it. But right now you can't sell it. The game is to realize that investing is about taking a 5- or 10-year view, not a 6- or 12-month view. And you're going to
[00:31] is either the best or worst-performing asset if you look at all of these years, So, to take a step back, any of these other assets. When it's underperforming,
[00:45] not when it is outperforming. Can you sit in a dog for a couple of years? Can you remain interested when interested? That's where you make the money. Bitcoin is clearly going to move.
[01:01] This is what happened when the ceasefire was announced, right? The market already showed its hand that the ceasefire is good news. So, I just want to explain what I think Bitcoin is. Bitcoin is luxury savings,
[01:13] right? It's a savings asset. It's long duration, long-term savings. that cuts off 20% of the world's energy supply or however much it is, nothing coming out. Not just energy, fertilizer as well.
[01:26] When there's a war in that region, that means GDP is going to come off. It means energy prices, food prices, and everything else going to go way higher. There's a shortage of those things. You have less savings. You have less
[01:38] investment. You have less equity to create credit against. Banks probably just come a little bit, right? And that means that there is just no way that right? Commodities are up 40%. You want to buy
[01:51] commodities here? They go up 1.9% a year. Over the last 15 years, they went up not even 2% a year. Inflation adjusted, they're down. You want to buy them when they spiked 40%? What is the long-term for commodities? They're
[02:03] garbage. No one wants them. They're not investments, right? We want them to be as cheap as possible. Savings is going to outperform all of The long-term growth rate for Bitcoin is 30% a year, right? You're buying when
[02:18] savings are cheap. Can you actually take advantage of these cycles? Right? Can you buy when other people back? That's how you make money.
[02:31] Jim Rat- Jim Ratcliffe, uh the the guy from the UK, um you know, he's a billionaire now. He did an interview recently. How did How did you make all that money? He said that we just bought businesses
[02:44] for a good price when other people didn't want them. else, and we came in and we knew what knew got it for a great price. And we just did that over and over and over again,
[02:59] right? And suddenly he's a billionaire. Look, that's the game, right? We all know that game. It's to not try and day trade commodity in news cycles. Look, what happened in the last few days? Bonds sold off, equity markets sold off.
[03:11] America it rallied again. What's the reason? Then this morning, my time, it comes out, "Oh, Trump was going to do a massive uh strike and then he pulled So, if you want to day trade news headlines that are 12 to 24 hours after
[03:25] they actually happen, and the market's already traded them, go ahead. But, you know, if you want to be Jim Ratcliffe and a billionaire, you try and find things that are in a good growth rate that you can get
[03:38] fairly cheap. And you just do that in cycles over and over, right? Buying peaks of Bitcoin is the worst time to buy them. Buying here is great. Now, funnily enough, uh you can't sell a dog, right? Set-
[03:51] else, you can't sell a dog. No one's interested, right? Same as Jim Ratcliffe when he's buying all these small, you know, um businesses out of BP and everything else, didn't want them, right? Boring, you know, not not
[04:04] interested, right? He just picks them off, picks them off. Um most people don't behave like that, right? When Bitcoin is at a an all-time again. It's easy to sell it. Everyone's going to be buying it again.
[04:17] cycle, right? You need to be on the correct side of the cycle. Like Jim Ratcliffe said, um we just make sure that we can last through the dips, and we can make money through the dips, right? With Bitcoin,
[04:30] it's just survive the dips, right? In your own personal finances. Cuz if we when the other cycle comes, when the peak of the cycle comes, we're going to great businesses. And it's the same for Bitcoin. You know what Bitcoin is, going
[04:44] up 30% a year. It's a savings asset. When everyone's uninterested, can you get more active here and take the risk here? Most people can't, actually. So if you trade Bitcoin crypto
[04:58] trade everything on Bybit now. Uh link in description, click that link, sign give you a deposit bonus to trade with up to $30,000.
