Easy Prediction Market Arbitrage (Polymarket/Limitless)

[00:04] Today we are going to be talking about more arbitrage. This time it is going to be easy prediction market arbitrage between Poly Market and Limitless Exchange both prediction markets. If you want to trade directional Poly Market,

[00:19] in the description below. If you're interested in arbitrage, then uh listen to this one. First thing I want to cover, there are a lot of prediction markets, but there's only really three that uh I use and that's Kelsey, Poly

[00:34] Market, and Limitless. And all three are tracked here on polyarketanalytics.com. Now, a lot of people can't trade on Kelshi because it is Americans only. However, pretty much anyone outside of the United States can do this arbitrage

[00:49] between Poly Market and and uh Limitless. So the first thing uh that I see you can see different prices for a lot of these these are the poly market prices you know these are the limitless prices but let's actually head over to

[01:04] limitless itself and I want to cover just a few arbs and then just show you overall really I think ways to take advantage of these prices. First thing I want to ask you is a bit of a quiz question. You will have to

[01:19] decide within 10 seconds. Is there an arbitrage? Uh try not to pause. I'm just I'm just curious if you can go fast enough. This is the same thing. Now, do between any of these two markets? I will reveal the answer in about 10 seconds.

[01:35] You can see it here and you can see it here. Um answer in three, two, one. here. Um answer in three, two, one. There is an arbitrage of XAI by buying and then at the same you can see that right here and then also at the same

[01:51] right here and then also at the same time buying yes on XAI here at 3.2. That's an arbitrage already. Yeah, there are so many different arbitragees you can take on this exchange too. That's just like a quick one. Buying at 3.2

[02:03] here and buying at 96.5 is a very clear arbitrage but not much. Another one that's even better, it might have changed is this one. And this one's giving away definitely uh a decent amount of alpha. Bitcoin above 103,000

[02:17] on June 20. You can buy at 64. This one expires in 23 hours. As you can see, this one also expires in 23 hours. It's the same market. Completely inefficient pricing that you can take advantage of. You can buy at 32

[02:31] can take advantage of. You can buy at 32 here and for no, and you can buy yes at here and for no, and you can buy yes at 64, locking in a 6% excess arbitrage immediately. Yeah, now it's at 65, but still if you

[02:45] Yeah, now it's at 65, but still if you buy at 65 60, let's It was 64 before. If you buy at 64 there and then also buy at 32 here, that's not a 6% AR. That would be a 4% uh risk-free profit. As you can see, there is so much arbitrage

[02:59] potential here. Uh really all over the place. So, if you're interested in arbitrage, uh I think that the best way to go about it, you can go here to look easiest way because there aren't really any external trackers unless you write

[03:13] one yourself is you go to markets and the most mispriced ones are going to be crypto and stocks. These ones are just very very very very mispriced. All of trade the same way that Poly Market does, just less efficiently. So you can

[03:28] just snipe really wherever you want. Uh it's been pretty good. They also have a markets that you can take advantage of too. If you look at the ending soon, you're going to see a bunch of different like indexes and a bunch of different

[03:42] plays that you can take on crypto and on stocks as well for a lot of these. As you can see, when it comes to stocks, if you are very good at trading stocks, there's a lot of really good ways you can snipe value for yes or no with a lot

[03:55] of these. But I would say the main arbitrage, the one I just showed you, is probably the best. Uh but yeah, you can see a lot of these markets are just very see a lot of these markets are just very easy to um to arbitrage. At the same

[04:08] time, guys, not only do you earn arbitrage profit, they also just like poly market offer uh liquidity pool reward uh reward rewards as well. So the market I just showed you of Bitcoin above 103,000 that one you can just buy

[04:22] rewards. So how do we use Limitless to be profitable? one sniping uh whenever it has mispriced prices. That's just a simple way. Like if it's starting a sports game and you can snipe, I don't know, will the Oklahoma City Thunder win

[04:38] the NBA? You know, that would be easy. Or maybe better would be just arbitrage like the one I showed you before. There are so many arbitragees here that if you really look at any of these markets, you're you're going to find an arbitrage

[04:51] really. And it really just comes down to your creativity to try to find these right markets. Again, the markets that fluctuate the most constantly are just going to be the best for arbitrage because that's kind of how arbitrage of

[05:04] course is created. Now, if we go to Ethereum above 2.5K on June 20th, I can look up the same thing. Yep. See, it's right here. And it's right here. So, how really because it doesn't look like there's any uh orders as you can see.

[05:20] But, you know, when the date comes along, we can just snipe this value if uh if we want to. So, there isn't a lot of great liquidity here. But the good news about this is all the arbitrage you can do, you can snipe basically on

[05:36] Limitless, it's all very very mispriced. Um, so you can basically just snipe good comes to sports or when it comes to crypto, really any of this, the only issue is a lot of these aren't going to have a lot of liquidity. I mean this one

[05:50] actually does uh have more the Solana what is it? Solana like above 144. Perfect. Same market right here. Easy. So you can see we can buy you know 40 43 47 with poly market. By the way, you can probably put limit orders in between

[06:05] these and probably get filled anyway if you're curious. Um but yeah, you could buy no here. Buying no at 56. You'd have to buy lower than 44 to make profit. So yeah, not every market is going to have arbitrage that's as easy as like this,

[06:19] you know, because this is just like severely mispriced, right? This is just very very severely mispriced. So yeah, that is about going to do it for looking for arbitrage. If you could trade on Poly Market and Limitless, I would say

[06:34] you could either, well, I hope you don't write a bot to do this, but you could write a bot just to snipe same market, just snipe um arbitrage all day, or you can also do it manually. You can do it manually by basically what you're trying

[06:47] to look for markets that are going to fluctuate a ton. Sports markets during a game are going to fluctuate like crazy. Uh crypto option markets are going to because prices are always changing just like you know this one right here is

[07:03] always going to be changing. And if this one's not changing at the same time, we can snipe that value and buy at like 63 and buy at 64 on the other and make free anything that's going to fluctuate a lot is really just going to be very very

[07:17] good for you. Now, if you like F1, there's plenty of arbitrage here um as well. Finally, I did find a website where you can actually track arbitrage between them, but the last thing that I want to say is that this website, it's

[07:32] not really the most accurate with its prices. So, it says here like, you know, you can buy no for Ripple ETF at 7.6 and buy yes at 90%. Uh, so these are a little bit lagged, so you do have to know that. But this is also a site

[07:46] that's going to give you the arbitrage between uh, Limitless and Poly Market. But again, it might be on a bit of a lag. With that, hopefully you have found limitless ways to make arbitrage profit, just open up a new venue for you to make

[08:00] thought possible. Happy trading to everybody and get arbing.