How to Actually Profit on Polymarket/Kalshi (Full Guide)

[00:01] profitable and unprofitable prediction markets traders is Look, it's borderline mind-boggling the speed with which prediction markets are taking over the world right now. In just the past 7 days, Coinbase, the biggest

[00:15] launched Kalshi markets in all 50 states. My Venmo app started sending me Kalshi notifications. Prediction markets volume hit an all-time high again. Kalshi gave away free groceries to the whole city of New York City before

[00:28] Mondani. And the Baron just published an article that this guy turned a $100 article that this guy turned a $100 deposit into $70,000 by going outside this point, I'm starting to think we might be early to one of the biggest

[00:42] internet trends of all time, which begs the question, of course, how do we actually make money off of this? Or better yet, can we actually make money seems to think so. And after doing a

[00:54] most profitable prediction markets traders, well, I learned there's a lot more to this game than meets the eye. So, after extensive research, in today's video, I'm going to give you a full guide to all of the most profitable and

[01:09] cutting-edge [music] prediction markets strategies we see emerging in 2026. If watch the video I posted last week, which is a full beginner's guide to prediction markets, cuz in this one, we're focusing entirely on actual

[01:22] markets change all the time, and these strategies probably won't work for long. aside a bit of time to watch this video all the way through as soon as you can, eight different [music] trading strategies from betting on Trump's

[01:36] speeches to arbitrage. So, let's get into it. Oh, and before we jump in, guys, I do need to let you know that I am currently running the world's largest markets trading community. In less than 2 weeks, thousands of you guys have

[01:49] number one place in the world for anyone who wants to learn to successfully trade streams trading multiple markets. were sharing daily picks were rolling out proprietary free tools for the community. Our community is growing and

[02:03] every single day. >> humbled by the amount of support and far. So if you want to dive in and join that for completely free, you can click you in an onboarding channel with a few links to tools and sites that we

[02:17] and then you'll be on your way. With that said, let's get into the meat of using Kalshi in today's video. On my last video I got a lot of comments of people that were having issues with using a VPN on Polymarket and there's

[02:29] Kalshi is completely legal in the United States where a lot of you guys are and it requires no VPN. a partner link beneath this video you guys can click to bonus as soon as you make your first trade on here. So be sure you go create

[02:43] It'll take like 2 seconds and again it's free to sign up. But to kick us off here there's one overarching concept that you need to understand. All profitable prediction market strategies revolve around one idea and one simple question.

[02:57] Can I use the information available to me to come to a conclusion about the world because these markets just allow you to bet on any real world outcome. A you to bet on any real world outcome. A conclusion that other bettors do not see

[03:10] yet. And if the answer to that question is yes, then voila, you have found what we will refer to for the rest of this video as a mispriced market. To exemplify this for you guys as simply as possible, if I was able to use

[03:22] information in my life to come to a conclusion that J.D. Vance actually had, conclusion that J.D. Vance actually had, let's say a 70 to 80% chance of being nominated as the Republican nominee for president and I saw on Kalshi that it

[03:34] was currently priced at 47%. Well, then that would mean that this is a mispriced market and if I took that bet enough times, I would certainly make money over profitable strategy. The reason that this is possible on prediction markets

[03:49] by the way guys and not on, you know, sportsbooks for example, is because bets against other people instead of some book or house edge that's just strategies to find mispriced markets? Well, let's go from simplest to most

[04:03] complicated. The first and easiest to understand overarching strategy to find mispriced markets is something that I would simply call the expertise making tons of money in this market by simply choosing a random area of

[04:17] anything in the world and going super hard on it so that they can have an edge this would be this fellow right here, prediction market trader, who's gotten really, really good at understanding Trump's speeches. As a matter of fact,

[04:32] he's become the 19th most profitable Calshi trader in the world with a six-figure P&L by literally betting on Trump speeches. He's doing this trading something called mentions markets, which are basically just markets where you can

[04:44] bet on, for example, what words will Trump say in his speech this week. He's as you can see. So, what is he actually doing? Well, in his own words from he's effectively just becoming a domain

[04:59] expert in something that he likes, Trump speeches, and finding mispriced odds on words that people don't realize Trump is actually very likely to say. And he's doing this by doing really like two key things. The first of these is, in his

[05:12] own words, analyzing transcripts. So, expert, this guy is literally going through, finding on the internet historical transcripts of Trump's speeches, and studying them. And look,

[05:24] that have been rolled out to do this. For example, if we go to mentionhub here you can see there's actually a tool, for example, that you could go use, if you likely it is that Trump says the word thug in his next speech. Well, we could

[05:40] analytics about how often Trump typically says these things in his just using this tool and has probably gone and vibe coded with Claude or also using something that he calls vibes, which I would more appropriately

[05:55] call just expertise and intuition from studying these transcripts and watching simply how something like this could happen, let's say that Antifa is priced at 27% and we go look at a bunch of transcripts and we find out that Trump,

[06:09] very often in his speeches. Therefore, you know, it should be priced pretty low. But, because we're domain experts and we're paying attention to geopolitics, like I'm sure PMT is, if we notice that there was a lot of Antifa

[06:22] news going on and we thought it was more likely that Trump would get asked potentially come to the conclusion that this is actually underpriced and get good odds. Now, this is an oversimplification, but what I want you

[06:35] a lot of money in these markets by just going and studying a random niche not that good at understanding and PMT is the only person doing this. Another great example of this would be somebody like Easy Eats Bodega, who's making a

[06:50] lot of money trading Netflix markets. You see, every week on Kalshi, there's a market for the top US Netflix movie this week. You can see that this Lucy Letby win it. And if you'd have been able to come to that conclusion 2 days ago, you

[07:03] could have gotten in those odds at 38% and almost three extra capital here. And this. I actually recently had a live stream with him inside our free Discord Asymmetric, where I had him break this stuff down. So, I'll explain a little

[07:16] another example of domain expertise. On the vibes and intuition side, first of Netflix. He's watching these movies. He's coming to his own conclusions power? Does this movie seem underrated and maybe it actually will trend to the

[07:29] people don't realize it yet. But, he's also using a bunch of data. You see, Netflix only updates their top 10 movies once a week on Tuesdays, but then there are websites like FlixPatrol that you can go click into and probably pay like

[07:41] a few dollars for some membership to get a bunch of advanced analytics about what direction are movies trending? Are they going up or down? How are reviews knowledge that if a movie has already been number one for a few weeks in a

[07:53] row, it is more likely to fall out of that first place to one that has a lot of momentum and combining all that to get into movies early before the rest of get that number one spot. He actually did this with The Rift a few weeks ago

[08:06] multiple thousands of dollars off of going and watching these movies himself and forming his own opinion about, you dark horse? Wow, this movie was really good. Maybe I should put a little bit of

[08:20] about this, but it's just an example of domain expertise. And what's cool about prediction markets is you no longer have to just study the stock market or crypto to be able to bet money on your knowledge. You can just kind of go crazy

[08:33] profitable endeavor. People are doing this with weather, a bunch of other video. mean, guys, in some cases people are taking this even further with full-on statistical models. This is an advanced model that somebody built to

[08:46] predict how many people would check in through TSA in the United States per that. In order to find mispriced markets, get money down, and become consistently profitable betting on how many TSA average check-ins are going to

[09:00] guys, and there's still a lot of edge to I don't expect any of you to go build a statistical model, but there is tons of these models emerging for free. We're trying to find all of the best ones

[09:12] right now and actually condense them into a channel in our Discord. So, of for free below and check some of the stuff out, you can do that. We're also building some pretty crazy stuff of our own soon, so join the Discord. Anyway,

[09:24] to move on to another strategy that everybody seems to be asking me about, to explain this concept, I'm going to have to use some visuals. So, simply put, guys, arbitrage is risk-free profit caused by the market disagreeing with

[09:39] itself. It's a way for us to lock in a guaranteed profit by buying all outcomes of the same market for less than the total payout. Let me visualize this for single platform arbitrage. So, let's say we found two markets on Kalshi, the

[09:55] first of which was called, "Will the Fed cut rates at the February meeting?" Let's say we then found a second market, which was called, "Will the Fed hold rates unchanged in February?" And what's important to understand, guys, is that

[10:09] yes, for this market on the left, they will cut rates is the opposite outcome of yes for will the Feds hold rates unchanged in February. Now, stay with me. If the odds on this market on the left were 42 cents for yes and 58 cents

[10:24] for no, and the odds for this market on the right were 48 cents for yes and 52 cents for no, then that means that we could buy yes on both of these markets, could buy yes on both of these markets, and our combined cost would be 90 cents

[10:38] total. This matters because whether they cut rates or they don't, we have both outcomes covered, which means that this 90 cents that we spent, no matter what, is going to resolve to $1, and we are going to make 10%. This is a free 10%.

[10:54] we put down. And while it's not easy to find markets like this occurring on the same platform, it is possible. And it's also occurring cross-platform. So, for example, if you were able to just find the same market, "Will the Fed cut rates

[11:09] at the February meeting?" on both Kalshi and Polymarket or Opinion or another market, and you were able to buy yes on this exact same market on one of those platforms for 40 cents, and you were able to buy no on the other platform

[11:23] for, let's say, 45%, then again, you have all outcomes of the then again, you have all outcomes of the situation covered for less than a dollar for a $1 payout. In that example that I just gave, it would actually be a 5%

[11:36] arbitrage opportunities, they are literally free money. The problem is they get resolved quickly. They are hard to find because they are free money. And unfortunately, I have yet to find any great tools for automating and finding

[11:50] surprising to me, which is why we are building something of our own that we're going to be rolling out very soon exclusively to members of asymmetric >> Woo! So, again, if you're not in there, now moving on.

[12:03] profitable prediction markets traders adopting in 2026 is something that I strategy. And this is basically a practice of constantly betting no on

[12:15] news-related markets that spike towards yes whenever sort of controversial news this. Back in July, you could have made a ton of money by simply betting no on this market about will Elon Musk create a new political party this year. You can

[12:29] see it spiked to almost 74% odds in just a couple days here. It was really free money to pick no here. And the reason this happened was because if you remember, at this time, Elon and Trump were like beefing on Twitter, and

[12:42] I'm going to start my own political party." But nothing ever happens this and been like, "Guys, this probably isn't that likely to happen. These are a lot of very emotional betters trying to catch this trend early who are sitting

[12:56] here reading on Twitter, what are the odds that Elon actually creates a new this." I even found this article about this dude David who made almost 40 grand just betting no on a bunch of different Elon Musk-related bets. So, people are

[13:09] this. And there's dozens of examples of this stuff working, guys. For example, back right around Labor Day, there was a bunch of news on Twitter about people health was getting worse. He had like a bruise on his hand or something. People

[13:23] thought he was like dying or something. So, this market about J.D. Vance being the rules it would have triggered if, you know, Trump was out of office and president, spiked all the way to like almost 20% on just a bunch of Twitter

[13:38] headlines. Nothing ever happens, traders. Of course, slammed no on this, couple days here. Super easy bet to take. And ultimately, like this nothing pretty viable. Some of the most profitable traders in the world, like

[13:50] PMT for example, who we're talking about earlier, said that like 70% of his winning bets were no last year. So, generally as a rule, like no bets are side of the strategy, by the way, is

[14:03] which is basically just the opposite of this, which is sitting on sites like Twitter, probably using TweetDeck for example, to be as fast as possible to Wi-Fi for this. And trying to swing trade by buying yes shares on something

[14:17] emerging. I'd say this is a little bit harder because then you'd have to try and, you know, sell the news top before it became obvious that the stuff wasn't probably smarter to just wait for the stuff to get unreasonably spiked up in

[14:31] price by emotional traders and bet no on it. But we do see some traders doing another strategy we've seen emerge as pretty profitable is what I would call the grinding out the favorites strategy. So, often times in prediction markets,

[14:44] things that are realistically like a 90 to 100% chance of happening end up getting priced at like 70 to 80% because bettors are emotional and they like betting on underdogs. And people think it's not exciting to admit that, like I

[14:58] the most obvious outcome is the most likely. And to give you an example of this, I'm looking at the Fed decision in March for whether they will cut rates. In March, you can see that Fed not cutting rates or maintaining rates is

[15:11] only priced at 87% right now. Guys, I was at a luncheon run by a $2 billion fund earlier this week who were absolutely unanimously sure that there's Now, of course, it could always happen. I would say a more appropriate pricing

[15:25] for this is probably something like 90% to 95%, like 80%. That would have been a better entry here just yesterday. And this is again because, guys, like people want to go and gamble, yes, on, you know, a 10%

[15:40] market, a 13% market here on the off chance that we cut rates. And the most likely outcome, which should probably be closer to like 95%, sometimes ends up strategy that we see some big traders doing is finding high liquidity markets

[15:53] like this and going and getting more money down at, let's say, you know, 80% odds on something that should realistically be closer to like 95% odds, which I would say is honestly the case in this scenario. Now, of course,

[16:05] like we can just see what happens in March. Maybe I'll be wrong. Like you're But this is another strategy for this market that I think is super viable. seen be quite effective is what I will call the touch grass strategy. And this

[16:20] is the art of finding one of these markets online that is being 99% bet by crypto bros and overly analytical dudes like me, which is like 99% of people then instead of sitting online, scrolling through Twitter, trying to

[16:34] just going outside and gathering information about the real world. For example, this Barron's article is talking about how profitable people have become by going outside in New York City to see what the weather is, how much how

[16:47] actually are super popular markets on how many inches of snow there will be in any given week. There's actually a trader mentioned in this article that turned a $100 deposit into over $70,000

[17:00] weather, specializing in temperature predictions. There's actually been group in New York City doing this, literally like going outside to get an edge on weather bets and making a bunch of money betting on snowfall,

[17:15] winds, rain. And sometimes it's as simple as that, guys. Like you just got we're seeing be quite profitable is what I would call smart money strategy, which is basically just when people are trying to chase smart money, whales, profitable

[17:28] and tail their trades. Now, what's cool about prediction markets is they have where you can literally just go see who the most profitable traders in the world profitable they are. And while I would never recommend you just blindly copy

[17:43] trade people and these be a part of a larger overarching strategy. There are coming out for stuff like this. For example, this is a bot that I really like that you can go connect to your Telegram account that will allow you to

[17:55] input wallets, set a bunch of parameters for how much money you want to put in copying each trade, what percentage of their value you want to copy, the max to have deployed in total. And I think there really is a place for tools like

[18:08] especially because you can literally just go see who's consistently making trades. I know these guys are about to roll out Cal sheet functionality, which is what I am most excited for. We have a full tutorial for setting this stuff up

[18:22] in our Discord. And speaking of our Discord, by the way, another free tool called a top trader tracker, because another really valuable way to sort of employ this smart money strategy or this quote-unquote copy trading strategy is

[18:35] just to monitor all the most profitable wallets and be able to see whenever a lot of the most profitable traders in the world with these alerts are taking underpriced. We also have something called an insider tracker, which is

[18:48] basically just tracking when freshly funded accounts, basically accounts that are brand new, are taking transactions of thousands of dollars or more. The reason for this is because this is something that we typically see insiders

[19:00] do that might have information that, of course, we don't have cuz we just have information and are trying to basically like hide their tracks. Now, of course, bets cuz this could also just be people trying to you know place money on both

[19:14] sides of a bet to farm an airdrop or farm yield. But combining all types of rolling out a bunch more is a really important aspect of any profitable the Discord is completely free. I'm I'm I'm not selling you anything. So now

[19:27] we've gone over a variety of profitable prediction market strategies from domain expertise to arbitrage to the nothing ever happens strategy to copy trading interesting guys, please do me a favor and not just drop a like on this video,

[19:40] because I'm working day and night to get you as much value, as much information as I can in this emerging market while we're still early. As always, if you more about this stuff, be sure you join our free Discord below. I hope you guys

[19:54] found this super valuable. I love you. And until next time, peace.