This Market Reading Is What Separates Common Traders from Consistent Ones | Complete Class

[00:02] in the financial market. I know you're already involved in the stock market, right, man? Do you also invest in fixed income investments? I don't. Actually, I quit today. Today, everything is 100% variable income. Variable. Do you have any crypto? Wow, now that I remember, I

[00:16] actually have a daily liquidity CDB (Certificate of Deposit) . Ah, fixed income, man. But, but at the Brazil, fixed income has something to offer, right, man? 14700 interest rates are way up there and with the prospect of going up even more, right?

[00:31] of fixed income. But look, fixed income, man, I'm even going to fixed income is really good for protecting yourself from inflation and earning a under the mattress. But at the same time, if you want to live off your income

[00:46] , you need to have a bit more of a nest egg, right? That's why so many people are flocking to variable income investments. But I have a question, what What did you say, man? I want to become a trader, like, well, I think in the

[01:00] investment field everyone has to understand that there are three stages, has to understand that there are three stages, right? You have an emergency fund, you have an investment fund. Uh-huh. And there's the risk factor. So, when we

[01:13] end up reaching those two, the third one is inevitable, because you end up looking for more gains and then you're more susceptible to risk. And I said, " Man, I've already started investing abroad, which is an

[01:25] infinitely larger market than ours, right?" We end up realizing that we're just a baby climbing up there. Liquidity is greater, there 's no way around it. We did comparison. And then I said, "Man, I need to learn this both

[01:38] because I want to learn it, you know?" And so, without wanting to, it sparks curiosity about the fact that the risk-reward ratio is much higher than even variable income investments. And then I decided, I said: "Man, I need to learn this and at

[01:53] least try." But then, it turned into a passion, and that's it. Cool, man. Legal. It's because a lot of people came after the pandemic; we brought a lot of traders to the market, but they came with the wrong motivation, right? Because you did

[02:05] were saying, "Dude, I'm here at home, what's going to happen to me?" And you brought a wrong motivation. That's why I asked you, because your motivation is practically certain, because trading is a profession within the

[02:19] , right? So, like you said, you have several the possibility of maximizing your capital in slightly more attractive risk-return ratio. Hey, let's go have a chat and understand

[02:36] some technical stuff better. Ah, continuing from what a lot of the technical aspects during our conversation. Just so you guys understand, it's me and UDson, we usually meet on

[02:51] Sundays, right? We'll have an in-person meeting, and then I'll give him some tips about the world of trading, right? Because the financial market isn't just about returns on variable income, as we were discussing abroad, right? There are

[03:04] several branches, and one of the branches he's now trying to enter is yours, which is the universe of trading. In fact, he's already learned a lot of technical stuff, and I've already passed on to him the basics of the market there. And today we're

[03:18] going to talk a little more about some of the motivators of what moves the market, because we trade a lot of dollars beforehand, a lot of dollars, man. In the foric currency market, what we look at most is the dollar, and some currencies have various

[03:30] motivators, right? So, one of the main drivers of the dollar's value is the interest rate. So, in other words, if we understand what makes the rise, why the dollar will fall, we can already get a sense of direction, because

[03:45] our function, our job is to try to predict the future of the currency, right? It's as if we were there to run the market. So we'll take a few points . Today we're going to understand a little more about motivators. I'll

[03:58] . Also, if you're already enjoying it, leave a like and follow us on this channel, okay? Let's keep going. Okay, let's go, man. Speaking of the dollar, you know the

[04:11] Fed, right? Yes yes. Are you familiar with the Fed? Central and Federal Bank. Yes, central bank of the United States, right? You already know him. And the Central Bank plays a very important role throughout the world, and

[04:25] especially in the United States, which is the country with the greatest economic strength that we can measure. So, the whole world is watching what the Fed does. And the Federal Reserve of the United States takes into account certain

[04:38] things, certain financial indicators, in order to measure the interest rate in the United States. The main data point it measures is the inflation rate. So we have some old ones. I'll even get this here for us to understand and get started.

[04:52] I believe you already know some of them. Yes. Yes. You have the IPC or CPI here, right? Some people also say it's the CPI (Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry). This is the main

[05:04] inflation indicator. This here is consumer inflation. So it's inflation, you measure the inflation that reaches the final consumer, right? For me and for you, it matters whether you 're paying more or not. This would be the IPCA, right? Ready. Exactly. The

[05:17] equivalent of the IPCA here in Brazil. So the Fed looks closely at this data example, what would that basically be? Look, if families in the

[05:29] United States are consuming more, paying more for food, paying more for gas, spending more on entertainment, going to the movies, flying... So there are several sectors, right, that you take into consideration to measure, for

[05:42] take into consideration to measure, for example, the CPI or IPC data. Basically, to keep it simple and avoid making things too complex, when the CPI rises, we have an expectation of rising inflation. When the CPI or IPC

[05:58] goes down, we expect inflation to fall. It's the same thing as the IPCA. If you see the PCA rising, inflation is high. If you catch the PC falling,

[06:11] lower inflation expectations. And remember, this data always refers to the previous month, right? So you're going to take it, you're going to finish the whole month, and then the CPI data will come out for you. Well, that's one of the main pieces of information. Okay

[06:23] , then. Rising inflation, rising IPCA or IPC, high inflation. Going down, inflation is low. What is the Fed looking at here? He thinks like this, man. What is the function of the Fed?

[06:37] To control inflation. Because if we have very high inflation, oh my god, it's a real mess, isn't it? So, one high inflation, oh my god, it's a real mess, isn't it? So, one Venezuela is almost accurate. It's going to turn around there.

[06:51] So, the Fed, the function of the Fed or the Central Bank, is precisely to have some strategies to contain this rise in inflation. So what does the Fed usually inflation. So what does the Fed usually do when inflation is high? One of the

[07:03] main strategies of the Central Bank, and not just the Fed, Brazil does this a lot as well not just the Fed, Brazil does this a lot as well , is to raise interest rates.

[07:19] essentially makes credit more expensive. Then he's going to make credit much more expensive. So people won't have as easy access to credit as they would otherwise, and they'll consume less because, well, if credit is too expensive, I'm not going to spend it

[07:33] now. Let's imagine the following: I have my credit card, and the interest rate also influences the credit card, whether it's the interest on the credit card credit card, whether it's the interest on the credit card or a loan itself.

[07:45] So I come to this loan and say, "Hey bank, I want R$ Then the bank will tell you: "Okay, I'll give you the interest rate here." So you 'll end up paying practically three times more, regardless of the interest rate, on your

[07:58] expensive, I'm not going to pay that interest rate." I also usually say that, with the interest rate increasing, you only have a certain amount of money left, right? And then everyone is

[08:10] competing for that same amount. So when you raise interest rates, people become less inclined to borrow that money, and the one who benefits from that is precisely the government, right? So what are people going to do then? You're going to

[08:22] the government will be the one using it, because it's competing for the same amount of money as you are. So he ends up benefiting more from it. That's why more money enters the country and the government has more access to use that money, because it's a

[08:35] money into investment, they spend less and thus they manage to maintain this trigger of people consuming less, and with people consuming less, the IPCA or IPC ends up falling. Awesome! That's exactly

[08:52] we can get to the market, which is what we want. Okay, then. First of all, here on the economic calendar, you'll have access to invest.com, and there you'll find the economic calendar. This is like

[09:05] a market agenda, right? Then the market will show you the main news that the market is expecting. And one of the main news items, look here, see? The UK CPI

[09:20] United Kingdom. Uh-huh. Here in Brazil it's the IPCA, in the United States it's the IPC. So, this week, on June 18th, the UK CPI will be released. You can the UK CPI will be released. You can see that in this section here we have

[09:34] what came in last month, 3.5%. Basically, inflation in the Free Kingdom. Basically, inflation in the Free Kingdom. The one in the middle is the projection. The projection reflects market expectations; it's a consensus. So, some experts use

[09:49] certain data to measure and provide us with a projection. So, the one in the middle is expecting. The market is already expecting inflation in the UK to fall. The fall is coming . Why is it going to fall, man? Then we have to look at the CPI from the

[10:05] inside to find out what caused this drop, whether it was the transportation sector, energy, food, services, it's services, anyway, but what matters most to us isn't so much what caused it, but rather the data itself. Then came the die rolling

[10:18] data itself. Then came the die rolling down. what can happen to the coin? The currency can lose value. Come on, let's put it back in dollars so you understand. Okay, then. The

[10:33] CPI data is out, you'll have to check if it went up, if high inflation went up. If inflation is so high, what is the Fed likely to do to curb that high inflation? Increase the interest rate.

[10:48] Interest rates will increase. Increasing interest rates means people will become more interested in US fixed income investments because, damn, it's good, money because of this, because it's good for investments, as are the famous trans people.

[11:03] Exactly. So, investing in US fixed income will become more attractive because the interest rate will pay you a higher premium without Why would I

[11:16] invest in Apple stock, for example, that pays me, let's say, example, that pays me, let's say, 3% annually, and a daily dividend of 3%?" Let's suppose, if I have a fixed income,

[11:30] hypothetically rolling over, paying me 5% annually, in dollars, right, in dollars. So, in other words, why would I take so much risk if I have an option, a product that will pay me less, with less risk and more profitability?

[11:46] Therefore, people tend to take money out of risky investments and put it into fixed income, especially in a country like the United States, right? Yes. It's a country that's ranked very high. It has now

[11:59] ranked very high. It has now gone down, I believe, after 10 years a rating has been downgraded. It was downgraded, but it's still a Class A, though it was downgraded by the MS agency, but anyway, it's still the

[12:11] United States, right? I have a question, this rating, when it comes out, it also influences the currency too much, way too much. Yes, the rating is like currency too much, way too much. Yes, the rating is like a credit bureau for the market, right? So

[12:24] imagine, if you're a guy who has, say, a 100-point score, your score drops to 700. In other words, you have a devaluation, you have a devaluation as a person and here you have a devaluation, in quotes,

[12:37] as a country. Of course, there are several agencies. One of the agencies disqualified, it doesn't mean they all disqualified, but if one disqualified, there must be a reason, right? Just a little heads-up, right? But anyway, we'll let it go

[12:50] . Let's go. So, in other words, if interest rates are rising, fixed income becomes more attractive. So, people move away from risk and go to fixed income. But move away from risk and go to fixed income. But listen carefully, everyone, the

[13:03] whole world thinks the same thing. So, there's a business called carry trade. Have you heard of it ? Already? Carry trade basically means this, in case you haven't heard, I learned it from Japan. I think

[13:16] I learned it from Japan. I think they were going to, well, and that's how I learned it, they were going to raise prices, right? Interest rates and all that stuff, you'll end up explaining it eventually. Yes, you can speak. That's because, I think Japan needs to raise

[13:29] interest rates because inflation there is out of control, right? What was all that explanation you gave? And people do that a lot, right? Like, I'll take money from one country and leave it in another. Exactly. And when the country decides to

[13:42] increase that, we're talking about stratospheric figures, right? So these people end up taking losses, which also harms the government's economy, and then it ends up having to decide whether to extend [the measures]. Ultimately, it's not very attractive

[13:55] when these things aren't controlled and the bank, or the Feds, in each country, need to raise interest rates, and that influences everything. Exactly. Car trading is basically that. To put it simply, I'm

[14:09] going to borrow money from a country with the lowest interest rate and invest it in a country with the most attractive interest rate. So the market does exactly that, man, all the time. So what happens when

[14:23] interest rates go up because the CPI data went up? Just one parenthesis, it's not that isolated piece of data. Well, there are several situations, isolated piece of data. Well, there are several situations, several inflation-related pieces of information that you

[14:36] can predict, for example, a decision from the Fed, right? We're talking inflation indicator here, but there are several. Are you talking about the CPI? So, the CPI went up, and the Fed is already looking here. Interest rates are going up. Higher interest rates mean greater

[14:51] attractiveness. To where? In fixed income. With fixed income rising, the whole world will look to the United States, because it becomes the focus of investors as a

[15:04] country with more attractiveness and less risk. So what do you do then? Let's imagine that I am Brazilian. Me and several other Brazilians say the following, man. Brazil have fallen. The signal, a hypothetical scenario, fell and the United States' signal rose. I

[15:19] United States, so where do I take the money from Brazilian reais?" The United States. But in order for me to take the money to the United States,

[15:31] I need to convert my reais into dollars. Dollar. The Forex market, my friend, is all about supply and demand. If I need to convert my reais to dollars, it means I'm buying dollars and selling reais. This

[15:48] buying dollars and selling reais. This causes the demand for balls to increase. So let's try again. Did you see the given side of the DPC? Inflation went up

[16:00] , it went up. What is the Fed going to look at, man? We'll probably raise inflation. Well, with interest rates rising, we have greater attractiveness in US fixed income , for example, rising fixed income

[16:15] , which is the famous Treasuries, as he himself mentioned, means that the dollar can rise and appreciate. Why would he value it? Due to demand, because

[16:27] other countries are doing the same thing. Okay? Even within the United States, people are buying more dollars in order to invest in the dollars in order to invest in the United States. This increases demand, and consequently, the

[16:39] value of the dollar against other currencies tends to appreciate. So, in that scenario, we tend to look for ways to buy dollars. So, for example, you take, you take here, for example,

[16:55] a euro, a dollar, for example. If we're at a euro-dollar exchange rate what's going to happen to the euro in this scenario, man? Probably, right? Look, in the market we always say "probably," okay?

[17:08] We can never be certain of anything, because the market is very volatile, so achieve our results. So, in this scenario else, what's going to happen to this asset here, EuroSD, in your view? What do

[17:22] asset here, EuroSD, in your view? What do you think? He tends to fall because we have people who are more prone to going for the "screwed up" guy. That's it, man. So it tends to fall. Exactly. He's already got

[17:35] the team here. Why does it tend to fall? Because the euro tends to weaken against the dollar . But is it because the euro is more expensive, weaker, or cheaper? No, will probably become more expensive than the euro. Therefore, if I have an asset that is euros and

[17:50] the euro. Therefore, if I have an asset that is euros and USD, the quote currency, the quote currency is the dollar. So the euro depreciates against the dollar in that case, right? So the dollar goes up, the euro goes down. Basically, we would be selling

[18:05] this scenario. Let me see if there's an example of the CPI here. The IPCS report will be released soon, example of the CPI here. The IPCS report will be released soon, I have this CPI data here that came out

[18:17] from the United States on June 11th. June 11th. Recent. It was quite recent. see if I have the 11th here first, right? Through the trading view. It's bad. Oh, it has.

[18:30] Beauty. So, look what happened. Let's go. Let's go. Here I had some previous data, Here I had some previous data, so last month it was 0.2%.

[18:42] The consensus projection was that it would be in line with last month, but the in line with last month, but the result that came out was a slight drop. So what can we observe here? That inflation in the

[18:55] United States has receded, a slight receding. What was the reason? Like I said, it's not of interest to us. Several. Yes, if you want to see what PC's. Exactly. But in this case, it's not necessary. He's

[19:09] already shown us that a downfall is coming. So, probably, in this case we would have had a possibility, contrary to what possibility, contrary to what we saw here, of the dollar probably

[19:23] a weaker dollar, because the same reading that we made for a rise in the CPI also turned around , in the case of contrary data. So, here's the thing, probably the euro, what happened with

[19:36] the euro at this value, it appreciated. Let's take a look at what happened Let's take a look at what happened . 9:30. . 9:30. So, the data came out at 9:30 in the morning.

[19:49] So, the data came out at 9:30 in the morning. We traders, that is, you, me, all of us, were already waiting for this data to come out so we could trade based on the flow. Try this: the trader lives on opportunity.

[20:02] That's our job, to seize the opportunity. So, an opportunity like this, news like this, creates opportunity. So, you take 9:30 in the morning here and then you go to the graph. Look what the Euro did! Day 11,

[20:17] 9:30 in the morning. Look at that little tap upwards . magic?" No, man, that's probability, that's price statistics, right? Why did the euro rise against the dollar? Because inflation showed a

[20:31] dollar? Because inflation showed a slight decrease. This makes this one here, the possible fixed income investment, less attractive. And people do the opposite, they sell dollars, and then automatically we have the euro going up. Not only in the euro, you also have the GBP

[20:46] USD which is the pound. It had that too. It certainly did. On the 11th. Where is the 11th here? Hello. Up. The real thing with

[20:58] the real would also be the same thing. So if you were on SDBRL. Okay, now if you were on SDBRL. Okay, now I'm going to get you. The SDBRL that happened with that asset is difficult because it

[21:15] CPI data, which likely reflects the US CPI data, our currency will certainly gain strength there as well. But in this case, with this SDBRL asset, what would you have done ? SDBRL would have gone short,

[21:30] short, short, short, because in that case the dollar is the primary currency, right? That's right, exactly. Let's see, let's see what happened as well. I'm curious to know

[21:42] more about what went back in there. Oh, 96. Where's 96? Oh, it really fell here. Even with that, right? We had a die roll there . Of course, man, when we talk about the market, we're going to have this expectation of a drop, and you have

[21:57] two options for trading based on this data. First, believing in the expectation. So, you're going to believe the consensus data. But consensus isn't always right . Yes, because consensus is an expectation, a projection, but

[22:12] the actual data can be completely different from what the market expected. And that's when the market starts to operate, because, for example, you can trade based on expectations. So, before the data comes out, for example, when you know it's

[22:24] going to be released at 9:30, at 9:29 and 30 seconds, you can start acting, for example, in this case, by selling dollars. But then the data came in, and it was the opposite of what you imagined and what the market

[22:37] hadn't anticipated. Then the market will react differently, and you'll need to change your bias as well. That's why it's good in this case, within your risk management strategy, to have the possibility of operating

[22:51] more than once, because if the data comes out wrong, example, reversing your position and changing your expectations, you understand? There's another situation that happens a lot too, you have to be very careful.

[23:06] complete opposite direction of the news, but in search of liquidity. You know that the market is always driven by liquidity, and sometimes news brings a very directional movement; the first moment might seek

[23:20] that liquidity, and then it might go in that direction. So, when that direction. So, when you're trading and it's news-driven, never trade with only one entry within your risk management strategy. Try at

[23:33] least three, man. At least three of these are there for you to adjust your expectations as the market moves along. Beauty? Well, so you've got the hang of it, huh? So in that case it fell through. So, we're going to have

[23:52] the UK CPI data this week, on Wednesday. This PC data follows the same trend, okay? The same goes for the IPCA as well. So, for example, if Brazil's IPCA (Consumer Price Index) went up, if inflation went up, the

[24:06] central bank here would have to do the same thing, raise interest rates. This makes our fixed income more attractive. And people engage in this carry trade, taking money from where it's cheaper and investing it in countries where it's more

[24:19] expensive. But look, I'm speaking bluntly because in the slightly more delicate part you have to take country risk into consideration . Why is Brazil paying 15%, anyway? If we were to think like that, everyone would be putting money

[24:32] into Russia, right? Do you understand? Highest interest rate in the world. But then there's the issue of currency appreciation, and there's the issue of war. Exactly. There are several different situations. We're talking about internal matters, right, within each country, right? Exactly.

[24:45] Because, for example, if the country has an interest rate of 15%, something's up , because, for example, inflation is high, for sure, but the country also risks defaulting. Under what circumstances could Brazil

[24:57] default, for example, with an interest rate of 15%, which is expensive? higher gold rate, it means the following: "Look, folks, come here and invest in my country, come here, I'll pay you a higher premium for it. I'll pay you a

[25:11] much higher premium for it." So you're going to run more risks because people, states, and Brazil in these cases, have a very large debt. We call this a fiscal deficit. So Brazil's debt is

[25:24] very high. So what does Brazil do then? He sells the debt security so that I, as an investor, can buy this security, right? That. And in return, I'll get a prize for it. So Brazil

[25:41] will use my money and the money from [other countries] to pay off, so to speak, the debt that Brazil currently has. That's current, right? And then they start offering. But then you're taking on new debt, right? Brazil is taking on new debt because, man,

[25:53] I'm going to have to pay it back in 3 or 5 years. I don't know which title you picked, do you? And then this happens. So the government doesn't tighten its budget and then, three years later, what does it need to do? Increase it further. Increase it further. And then what

[26:07] happened with Argentina happened, right? 13.30% interest rate, but you have inflation of 170 sometimes, or 105 paying 120. The risk, precisely why everything gets so messed up , right? of the country's trade balance

[26:22] . Exactly. So, I'm showing you the rough outline here, but it won't always we'd need a 10-hour lesson. So, the idea here is to be a little more practical. So, that's exactly it,

[26:38] right? So, in this case, Brazil takes on more debt to pay off previous debts, and it ends up becoming a ball of debt. So, what needs to happen? I do is also on the same track. There are several countries. Yes, and the United States has even

[26:51] more, right? But anyway, let's continue here. So, the CPI data will be released here on Wednesday. The expectation is that it will go down. So, I already have a reading for Libra for this week. I

[27:07] Pound will probably be a little bit lower against the other currencies on Wednesday. But the outcome could be different, as I told you. But

[27:20] in that case, we're going to start selling Libra. Oh, the CPI for the eurozone is coming out too . Look, same day, right? 1.9%. What we've noticed is that all the data for this month is coming in with deflation.

[27:35] Funny, because Trump's tariffs would have to increase that deflation. That's exactly it, right? Because everything got more expensive, right? Yeah, but anyway, at least the inflation data is coming in lower. And then there's the issue of wars,

[27:48] man, this year for investors, I'll tell you, you guys are screwed, dude. Everyone thought 2025 would be the year we turned the corner 2025 would be the year we turned the corner . It's all about the sound, it's all about the sound, it's about oil at its

[28:01] peak, gold everywhere, gold was falling, I think it was at its lowest point, right? falling, I think it was at its lowest point, right? Then, out of nowhere, Israel attacks the nuclear facilities there. Gold is up almost 20% over there, and so is the price of a barrel of

[28:15] oil, but what happened? No, it's not going to happen , it was more or less like this, because I was selling gold and then sleeping peacefully, everything was fine, man. The world was at peace, my little gold was going there, giving away my dollars. I said, "Oh, how

[28:27] delicious!" When I woke up, the warrior exploded, I don't know what I said: "My so silent." And then the mouth opens, so welcome, everyone. This is

[28:41] part of our game. Let's go, then. Look, we have this expectation, okay? Hey, look, the Fed's target funding rate will also be released this week, on Wednesday, June 18th . This one here, folks,

[28:57] this is what the market is looking at. This here is the interest rate. So, look, we expect the interest rate to remain at the same level.

[29:11] Dude, usually, when the market is already expecting it, that's when this data comes out. Yes. So the market has already priced that in. So usually when the market goes exactly in line, it stays flat, right? What is flat? It will become more

[29:23] sideways more because the market already expected that. The market usually reacts differently when the numbers come out different from expectations. Dude, I don't doubt it. It's possible that the Fed might decide to

[29:39] lower it. Yeah, we saw Trump talking about that a little bit the other day, that it was, in a way, under control. They generated more, I think they created more jobs, right, a little more than expected, in

[29:51] terms of hiring. And so he was in that situation, you know, at the beginning he even started a confrontation similar to what Lula was having with Campos Neto, but he realized that wasn't the way to go, attacking such an

[30:05] independent institution. And then he started taking things like that , he started believing, and then he made that hopes it will actually go down. I think that even some of the market expectations, despite what this projection seems to suggest, are that it will fall a little. AND. And I myself

[30:20] believe that it might come. I don't know why Jeremy Paul is so technical, and in the last few meetings he always said, "Dude, we're going after the goal." The goal is to bring inflation down to 2%. And the way to bring inflation down to

[30:32] 2% is by raising the interest rate. There is no other, there is no other alternative. In this case, it may remain the same or decrease by 0.25%. If I see 0.25%, I won't be surprised, but I'll react along with the

[30:46] market. Okay, let's see if you're paying attention. If this expectations, what happens to the dollar? The

[31:01] In intraday trading, that is, day trading, which is what we do. What do you think might happen to the dollar if US interest rates come down slightly? Okay, that's the thing , right? In my mind, I would say

[31:15] that it would depreciate because we have a decrease and then perhaps another increase, but I think that speaking of the United States, this whole issue suggests that things are being put in order. I would say that there would be

[31:31] an appreciation of the currency. Legal. Look, that was a different perspective he had, wasn't it? Because, in a more straightforward sense, we would actually expect a devaluation of the currency because of this,

[31:51] fixed income investments. Yes, you can consider that. Now, what market, man. That's what the market demands. Now imagine if just one person , or rather everyone, thought, " Let's just sell dollars," and there

[32:06] were no dollar buyers. What would happen? There is no market; a market only exists because I think one way, and others think differently. So, just as people might be thinking, and just as there are people selling, there are people

[32:19] wanting to buy. And that brings in the market. That's why the market exists. It's the same thing as drugs. Why do drugs still exist today, man? Why what? Because because I know you want to. No, you're there, I know you want to buy, there's a

[32:33] buyer, I have an offer for it. Seller, so if there are no people interested in buying, who am I going to sell to? I have no market. So the market is very interesting because of this divergence, this divergence of

[32:45] thought and, precisely, of interests, right? That's the most interesting one. But in fact, if it falls here, we would basically expect the dollar to be a little lower in the short term. I say in the short term because when we day

[32:59] of money. So you'll capture dollar and more buying pressure towards the euro. But I think they would definitely value it that way if I saw it low. Yeah, I don't know if it'll be like this forever, you know

[33:13] ? For the long term, medium term, long term, if I saw a difference of 0.25 like that there. That's because 0.25 is still low, but it will create volatility. Yeah, I think it might fall a little, but I do n't think it will fall that much, especially because, due to

[33:28] the world wars, the dollar is considered one of the safe-haven currencies, right? a little stronger when we have global chaos, just like gold does in that case, right? So the dollar and gold are generally considered

[33:42] safe-haven currencies, reserves of safe-haven reserves. Exactly. Even Bitcoin, right? When these two aspects are going wrong, for example, the reserve, either has some regulation or some government is trying to shut down the system, and then, well, that's when

[33:56] people leave the dollar and gold and go to crypto assets, because they have that their money from the world, right? He's taking the state out of the money. Exactly. Exactly. And she said that. I think that's the word, protect your

[34:09] investment. If they want our assets, they are precisely those with that characteristic. So, it's possible that in the short term it will fall, which is what I want and what you want too, in order to make money. Of course. And in the long term, we have a

[34:22] really different expectation compared to the dollar. Well, and even on Wednesday we have the Selic interest rate, which is coming priced in for a lock-in period. But I believe that in this case, the interest rate, according to

[34:39] Galipulo himself, could increase to around 15%. He's going to, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was an increase to 15. And it's quite similar to the US rate of 0.25, maybe around 0.2. Exactly. It's that little margin, right? I

[34:54] believe it will go up that much more, but I can tell you, I think we're already in the final stages of this interest rate hike cycle. Me too, I think so too. But we remain hopeful about the things that have been happening,

[35:07] depends a lot on that. Ready. Let me tell . For those of you who are traders or are thinking about becoming traders. Why is it that sometimes our profession as traders is more interesting in this respect? Because

[35:20] we don't think much about the long term, because the long term is very uncertain. You know, a bomb could drop here, a president could make a speech, man, so many things could happen that you have no control over. So, it's often more

[35:32] interesting to look at the small things, the micromovements, because that's what matters to us. The future is very uncertain, isn't it? So, if you think too much, operate too much thinking too much, oh, but in 10 years, 15 years,

[35:45] man, anything can happen in 10, 15 years. So, sometimes day trading is interesting because you get a glimpse of what's happening in the market and in the because of that. But that's exactly it. So, in other words, man, I liked your take on

[36:02] that. Let's go, so we can almost finish up there. So, there you have an IPC. One of the main data points is the IPP, which is the producer price index,

[36:17] so it follows the same line. So the PPI, which is the producer price index, right? So it follows the same idea, right? If the PPI rises, the dollar tends to appreciate; if the PPI falls, the dollar tends to depreciate

[36:32] against other currencies. As a trader, a day trader, you'll be looking more at the selling side of the dollar in the flow, okay? It's not a rule, because everyone has their "Damn, I'm going to take advantage of the market drop to buy it cheaper." It depends

[36:46] on each person. Either you go with the flow or you follow this path. The PPI, the CPI, we have the GDP,

[37:00] basically it's what the country produces, right? So if GDP goes up, the dollar goes right? So if GDP goes up, the dollar goes up. If GDP falls, the dollar falls. Expectations are for the up. If GDP falls, the dollar falls. Expectations are for the

[37:13] We have the payroll, which is extremely important. Polling is extremely important. Payo here, for me, is one of the key figures within this category. Here he measures the United

[37:27] So, if that payroll, excluding the agricultural sector, if that payroll goes up, it means that the people who are employed in the

[37:40] agree that I have money in my pocket? I'm thinking of buying it. I'm wanting to buy, you're wanting to spend. Exactly. So that's the want to spend money, I'll spend it on saving. But if I spend too much, what

[37:56] If inflation rises, what will happen to the CPI? Go up. Jur, what's going to happen with the interest rate? What will the dollar do? So that's the expectation we have. Details, folks, expectations, okay?

[38:13] So that's basically what pay is. And if it falls, people are unemployed. One detail: if the payer rate falls, for example, it has to be accompanied by a devaluation, an increase, excuse me, in the

[38:26] unemployment insurance rate. Because if I have data showing a US payroll is declining. I need to have , to align with this , a rising unemployment rate

[38:44] in the United States, okay? To make this data more interesting, it needs to you don't have it, if you have the payroll rising and the unemployment rate falling, wait a minute, something's wrong there, there's some discrepancy, right? So it's

[38:58] good that when you look at the payo, you also look at this data, but you can understand that this is what moves the dollar market, this is what

[39:10] daily. That's what makes the market move. Just CAD, have you heard of the CAD, the Canadian dollar too. The biggest driver, the

[39:23] biggest motivator of CAD, do you know who it is? Not now. Now you're learning that you are the oil, man. Ah, because it's the

[39:36] country's main economic activity. So, for example, you saw that oil prices are sky-high this week, right, because of the wars. Yes, wars. Wars cause war are among the largest oil exporters. So, when

[39:51] a country is at war and it's not focusing so much on economic activity, but rather on the war, we have a lot of demand for oil from that region and you have little oil from that region and you have little supply, right? So, in other words, the price

[40:04] oil prices so high. So, generally this currency, I'll take the generally this currency, I'll take the SDCAD here, no, I'll take the Eurocad, and the dollar as well, okay? This currency, at the moment, for example,

[40:20] moment, for example, tends to appreciate, but depreciation of the euro currency in relation to the CAD, right? Come on, you can see the drop in the currency, right? The euro is

[40:35] losing a little value, because the CAD, in this case, tends to appreciate CAD, in this case, tends to appreciate because its driver is oil. There's another one too, man. There's the CAD, the Russian ruble, the

[40:49] Norwegian krone, and the Khmer Rouge dollar as well. The dollar is also from Cotian. So you take all these countries whose main source of income is oil. So the driving force behind these assets is

[41:05] oil. So guys, what am I trying to say to you all with this? In short, it 's extremely important for you as a trader to know what's happening in the world so you can make informed decisions and have a better

[41:20] understanding of your biases. What is bias? Our job is to anticipate whether the market will go up or down. Yes, either the dollar will go up today, it will go down what's the price of oil like? What can I take into consideration? It's not

[41:34] just a little arrow that appears there, you're going to sell something, put a Fibonacci number there and think it's going to work, without analyzing all these confluences, right? Exactly. Yes, it's a little more complex that way.

[41:48] And knowing this, you create a bias every day. That's where technical chart analysis comes in . For example, you might say, "Damn, I already saw that the US interest rate has fallen, so I expect the dollar to go

[42:03] down." Then I come here, take a look at the world, the treasures are falling, for example, DX is falling. So what am I going to do? Technical analysis and classical analysis, in this case, would serve as a complement to your

[42:17] perspective. If you know the dollar is falling, you're going to buy euros. That's where the technical part comes in. So, based on your euro buying triggers, you would enter. That's where Fibonacci comes in, for example, when the market

[42:32] goes up, correcting 50% of the Fibonacci retracement, 61.8, you can use this as a retracement, expand the Fibonacci, make the

[42:44] expansion movement as a wing. So, technical analysis would then come in as a complement, you understand? Everything I taught you, before you put it into practice here, ah, because it formed a double top, I'm going to sell it now. No, it's good that you

[42:57] first create your bias so you can operate in favor of the movement you understood at least a tiny bit. This is, as I told you, the very basics. We can delve much deeper into this in

[43:13] this lesson, right? right? To describe a lesson like that . So we can delve more videos for you on this topic , so I can delve a little , so I can delve a little deeper into this news analysis and help you

[43:26] , man. I hope you understood at least some of that lesson. It's not 100% certain. Mass. Awesome! See you next time. Leave a like, everyone. M.