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This SMC Strategy Is Too Simple to Ignore (1,150+ Trades)

0h 21m video Published Aug 2, 2026 Transcribed Aug 3, 2026 Lewis Kelly Lewis Kelly
Intermediate 5 min read For: Traders familiar with smart money concepts and technical analysis, looking for a systematic, data-backed strategy.
AI Trust Score 72/100
⚠️ Average / Some Fluff

"Delivers a detailed, data-backed strategy as promised, though heavy promotion of the indicator slightly dilutes the value."

AI Summary

The video presents a systematic smart money concepts (SMC) trading strategy focused on London session sell trend continuation. The trader shares a step-by-step breakdown of rules, including market structure analysis, session-based location, confirmation, and point of interest, backed by over 1,150 trades of data. The strategy emphasizes repeatable rules and data-driven decision-making over guesswork.

[00:04]
Strategy Overview

The strategy is described as 'simple and boring' but consistently profitable. It is a London session sell trend continuation model.

[00:32]
Direction via 15-Minute Swing Structure

Use 15-minute swing structure to determine trend direction. Look for higher highs/higher lows (bullish) or lower highs/lower lows (bearish). After a break of structure, expect a pullback and continuation.

[01:38]
Change of Character (CHoCH)

A change of character occurs when a swing high makes a lower low or a swing low makes a higher high, signaling a potential trend reversal.

[02:20]
Need for Repeatable Rules

Real-time market structure is messy. Without clear rules for defining swing points and breaks of structure, traders cannot be consistent or profitable.

[03:17]
Backtest Data and Win Rate

Over 2.5 years, the strategy has over 200 trades. Average win rate is 33%, but risk-reward is 1:6, resulting in positive expectancy. Example: 10 trades with 3 wins and 7 losses yield +11.4R.

[04:42]
Large Sample Size

The trader has over 1,154 executions across 2022-2025, emphasizing the importance of data over anecdotal claims.

[07:03]
Automated Indicator

The trader coded his rules into an algorithm (SMC engine) to automate market structure identification, removing guesswork.

[09:26]
Location: Session Highs/Lows

Instead of Fibonacci premium/discount, the trader uses session highs/lows. For London, wait for Asia high to be swept; for New York, wait for London high to be swept.

[10:20]
Critique of Fibonacci

Fibonacci retracement levels are just a bell curve of pullback percentages; they don't provide actionable edge. Session-based location proved more effective.

[15:11]
Confirmation on 1-Minute

After Asia sweep, wait for 1-minute timeframe to shift from bullish to bearish, aligning with the 15-minute bearish trend.

[17:38]
Point of Interest (POI)

Use 5-minute order blocks and fair value gaps as POIs for entry. Stop loss above highs, take profit at previous day's low and previous week's low.

The strategy is built on clear, repeatable rules: direction from 15-minute structure, location from session sweeps, confirmation from 1-minute alignment, and entry from 5-minute POIs. Data over 1,150 trades shows profitability despite a low win rate, emphasizing the importance of risk-reward and rule adherence.

Mentioned in this Video

Tutorial Checklist

1 00:32 Determine direction using 15-minute swing structure (higher highs/lows = bullish, lower highs/lows = bearish).
2 13:52 For London session, wait for Asia session high to be swept (location).
3 15:11 On 1-minute timeframe, wait for shift from bullish to bearish (confirmation).
4 17:38 Identify point of interest on 5-minute timeframe using order blocks or fair value gaps.
5 19:57 Set stop loss above swing high; take profit at previous day's low and previous week's low.

Study Flashcards (7)

What is the win rate and risk-reward ratio of the strategy?

easy Click to reveal answer

Win rate is 33%, risk-reward is 1:6.

03:30

How many trades were executed in the backtest?

easy Click to reveal answer

Over 1,154 executions across 2022-2025.

04:42

What is a change of character (CHoCH)?

medium Click to reveal answer

When a swing high makes a lower low or a swing low makes a higher high, signaling a potential trend reversal.

01:38

Why does the trader avoid Fibonacci retracement levels?

medium Click to reveal answer

Because they are just a bell curve of pullback percentages and don't provide actionable edge; session-based location proved more effective.

10:20

What is the second rule for the London setup?

easy Click to reveal answer

Wait for the Asia session high to be swept.

13:52

What confirmation is needed on the 1-minute timeframe?

medium Click to reveal answer

Wait for the 1-minute to shift from bullish to bearish, aligning with the 15-minute bearish trend.

15:11

What are the take profit targets?

easy Click to reveal answer

Previous day's low and previous week's low.

19:57

💡 Key Takeaways

📊

Data-Driven Edge

Shows that a low win rate can still be profitable with proper risk-reward, backed by extensive data.

03:17
💡

Debunking Fibonacci

Challenges a common SMC tool, offering a session-based alternative that proved more effective in testing.

10:20
🔧

Automation of Rules

Demonstrates how codifying rules into an algorithm removes emotional guesswork and ensures consistency.

07:03
⚖️

Repeatable Rules are Key

Highlights the core principle that without clear, repeatable rules, traders cannot be consistently profitable.

02:20

[00:04] simple and boring to trade, but it makes me money consistently. And in this video, I'm going to share with you every single part of that strategy, a step-by-step breakdown of each rule and a trade example executing this exact

[00:18] strategy. So, stay tuned. It's going to be a great video. So, the trade that I'm that was taken using this exact strategy is this London session sell trend continuation model. The first thing that I like to do is get the direction. What

[00:32] does direction mean? I like to use the 15-inut swing structure and that will example, if I see the 15-inut time frame putting in these levels, you can see that each high is getting progressively

[00:44] progressively lower. We're making a series of highs, higher low, higher high, higher low, higher high, higher low. All you're expecting from here is eventually a new higher high. And if we break in here, you're eventually

[00:59] expecting a pullback and continuation. And my job as a trader, this entire model is built off of is after a break of structure, wait for a pullback, wait for certain things to happen in here. And I want to basically try and sell at

[01:12] the top of this leg and take out the lows. I want to be selling in this area selling in this area, targeting this level. And again, as price comes back level. And again, as price comes back up, I'm looking to sell in these areas

[01:25] up, I'm looking to sell in these areas and simply just target the lows. So, the 15-minut swing structure and my directional bias for the day is decided market structure is really simple. At any time, you're printing higher highs,

[01:38] higher lows, or you can shift from being bullish to bearish. So, this is a change of character. And this is a series of lower lows, lower highs, lower lows, and trend. Here we have a break of structure, a break of structure, a

[01:52] change of character. This is a swing low that puts in a higher high and then that high puts in a lower low. So this becomes a change of character. When we get a change of character, then we shift. Now we're trying to short the

[02:07] structure. We're trying to short the market. Break of structure. Break of structure. Then we want to short from somewhere in here. As price comes back, we want to short this move. That is literally it. Now the problem is is the

[02:20] simple, right? If it was that simple, everyone would do it. A lot of the times you're taught structure like this, which is really easy. But then you come to analyze price in real time and all of a sudden it's like this.

[02:34] market, and this is what the structure looks like. And you have to still try to this is the thing that I see so many traders get wrong. If you don't have a repeatable way on what makes a lower low and what makes a higher high and how do

[02:50] we know if it's a break of structure or whether it's internal, how do we know it's just an internal liquidation? If you don't have rules for these things be trading with the trend, I should be using market structure. If you don't

[03:03] those rules with data, I promise you, you won't be profitable. You have to build these rules. Either build them for yourself or take them from someone. but accurate. What I've done at this point in my trading is I've taken my rules now

[03:17] working. I'll just show you the data. This is the strategy that I'm teaching you right now. You can see this is over 2 and 1/2 years of data. Uh hundreds of trades, over 200 trades executed. These are the numbers. Every trade that I

[03:30] lose, I lose one. Every trade that I win, I win six. On average, I win 40% of my days. On average, I win 33% of my trades. This looks small but I win three or four in 10 trades but when I win I win six. So just do this simple math.

[03:46] Let's say we take 10 trades. Say seven of them sorry are losers and three of them are winners. When I lose I lose seven. But when I win I gain 6.14. So I seven. But when I win I gain 6.14. So I actually end up gaining 18.4.

[04:01] actually end up gaining 18.4. Now minus the difference over 10 trades I'm up 11.4 four, even though I lose most of my trades, right? That's just the simple math of my model. Everyone wants a 75% win rate strategy and then

[04:15] You're not going to get it. You can have a 75% win rate strategy, but you might a 75% win rate strategy, but you might be going for a 1:1 riskreward. You maybe maybe maybe might get a 1 to2 riskreward, a 75% win rate if you're

[04:28] that. But unless someone's going to show you the data, don't listen to what you hear on YouTube. Everyone would tell you 80% win rate, 70% win rate, 90% win rate. But unless they show you the the stats and the receipts to back it up, I

[04:42] just don't listen to them because in my models, I have over 1,154 executions. These aren't baby numbers. That's 1,154

[04:54] trades. And that's the data on them. 1,154 trades. 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. That's over 3 years of data. over 1,150 executions. So, yeah. Anyway, is this a change of character or is this the swing

[05:09] that you're going to have to make in real time. And I can tell you, use the swing structure, but you'll still come and say, "Well, is that a swing or is swing cuz it's the furthest point that price pulls back before we break

[05:21] structure. Then, we break structure. So, I know that's a high. Okay, we respect this. So, I know that's a low. Okay, that's a high. But then, is character? or should I be expecting higher prices? This is where it gets

[05:34] really kind of tricky, really confusing. So, if we apply that logic now to to like. So, this right now is the range that we're in. This is where we're rules that you can follow, how else would you define this? Maybe you look at

[05:47] it like this. Oh, okay. That's the structure. So, now we're bullish. So, what from the 6th of May to the 14th of May, you're going to just try and buy work out too well. And this is what you're going to target. And so

[06:00] buying. How do you define it? You'd look at it and you may be like, "Okay, well this is this is it because you can see it works quite well for some period, but then you still be long in here." And you'd be spending a long time trying to

[06:13] on the flip side. Again, let's imagine we're not in here. Is it like this? And then yeah, you have to build your rules. What makes Is this a high?

[06:25] Is this a high? Is this a low? Is this a low? Is this a high? You have to decide this and you have to decide it in a repeatable way. Meaning a set of rules the low, this is a breaker structure, this is the change of character and then

[06:37] myself. I went out I I tested many different rules. This type of pullback, this distance in pit range XYZ. Eventually I settled on the thing that worked the best for me and this data that you're looking at here, this is

[06:50] executions on that specific strategy that I'm teaching you today, I follow the same market structure rule every single time. it does not change. And to make my life easier, I coded it into my own algorithm that gives me my own

[07:03] indicator because at this point, I don't need to guess. I already know my rules myself. I think it's just easier if it's automated. I hired a team that built the algorithm that ran the logic. And now I have this, which is my indicator. So now

[07:17] I have this little icon here, and this tells me my market structure. So I know trade, cuz we don't even know why we're taking the trade yet. I already see that the 15minut time frame is bearish. The 1

[07:32] bearish. So I already know that I'm expecting the 15minut to be bearish. It even shows me. Now I can go back in here and I can find all the swing points. I This was a swing low. This was a break of structure. Now we shifted bearish in

[07:46] here. We shifted bearish. We respected the high. We went and put in a new lower low. Okay, so I know right now then that this is the swing high and this is a this is the swing high and this is a swing low. So, I know that number one,

[07:58] to look for shorts. Number one is I want to sell. Number two is I know that I'm going to sell somewhere between this high and this low. So, I'm going to sell I know that I'm going to target this low down here and probably this previous

[08:14] week low, this low and here. I know that I'm going to target here and here and That's just what market structure alone does for me. This is why there's many different rules. Market structure alone won't solve everything for you. But to

[08:26] bring it back full circle, I use swing structure to identify my trend. And I for this specific strategy. And you need specific rules. I can teach you this. ends up looking like this and you don't know which swing points to use or today,

[08:42] you use, you know, if we look at this example here today, maybe that's a break character. Now you're trying to long in here. And then next week, not a change of character and you're still trying to sell here. I know this

[08:57] led me to build my rules in the first place because I kept on finding that my story short, so one of the features of my SMC engine is swing structure. It say one of the most important ones is the structure. Again, if you want an

[09:12] you, you can check it in the description. I'll leave a link there. The first things first is trading in direction of the trend. The second thing is going to be location because it's not good enough to just know what direction

[09:26] you want to trade. We need some kind of contextual trigger. And again, these actual rules that the strategy is made up of. So, let's say now we're bearish. Now, what does that mean? Do I sell here, here, here, here, here? Like when

[09:39] the next question. Because like I showed you already, technically I can short from anywhere in here. And what I noticed a lot of people do and something that I fell victim to at some point as well is this concept of premium and

[09:55] it before. Use the Fibonacci retracement level and you'll use the premium and level and you'll use the premium and discount. We take the fib in here and essentially, you know, you have these levels 50% 618786 and then you define

[10:08] your trend. You're like, "Ah, this is the perfect level to to retrace." And if it's above 50% it's in premium, I want to sell in premium. And if it's below 50%, it's discount. I don't want to sell at a discount. That's the logic that I

[10:20] reality is is it's just not accurate. Now, what I noticed is when I ran my tests and built my data using premium discount, I was still profitable. But I took so many less trades and I avoided so many trades that were great trades,

[10:35] but because they were in a discount, it wasn't. And who decides what a discount decide what a discount is. All a Fibonacci retracement is is a data collection that shows you the average pullback inside of a price range. So you

[10:48] pullback inside of a price range. So you can go and test, you know, 1,000 1,000 swing structure points and on a graph plot what pullback level they did. So did they pull back, you know, 1% of the leg and go lower, 2% and lower, 3% and

[11:03] lower, 4% and lower, and so on and so forth, all the way up to 100%. And what literally all you will see is some type of bell curve like this. All you'll end of bell curve like this. All you'll end up seeing is that is this. And there's

[11:17] up seeing is that is this. And there's this kind of area here between like 50 50 and 60% that people think is the golden area. But in reality, that's they see this. But that doesn't mean that you should just trade there.

[11:31] price might pull back 4% into the range and continue 10%, 15%, 20%, you know, And there are some times where price will pull back 70%, 80%, 90%, 99%. But

[11:46] how many pull back 99% versus how many pull back 50%, you'll just see this bell differentiation between them. But I'm telling you, it doesn't do anything for you. And I tried all these things. And one of the biggest things that I found

[11:58] is it's session dependent. So if I'm in the London session, what I found is that in the London session, the session before is a good indication. So I found that if I'm in the London session and the Asian session leaves highs, after

[12:11] the Asian session is taken, then I look for shorts. If I'm in the New York session, then I wait for London high to be taken and then I look for shorts. And I found that out of everything that I tried for understanding when should I

[12:27] And so that's what I did. And so the second rule is for the London setup, strategy that I'm sharing with you right now, which is the intraday bias one, I have multiple different variations of this one strategy. So inside of this

[12:43] strategy, there are a few different setups. You can see here these are the this one London Frank London London Frank New York Li

[12:56] R that they are they have different meanings all kind of along the same rules. So the setup that I'm showing you today is the London sweep Asia trend continuation model. There's another five

[13:09] or six variations all very similar. And again, if you're interested not only in your structure for you and your sessions and your order blocks and some of the stuff that we'll look at later in the video, but you also want the access to

[13:21] my entire playbook. And you want to see I have videos where every single one of these trades that you see here, every single one of these 230 executions one of them, there's a video for every single trade. So, that's 230 trades

[13:37] executed on video trading one of the setup variations and plus you'll get all of the rest of the setups and the indicator. And again, I'll link that in link. So, yeah. So, this is the London

[13:52] directional bias, which we know is bearish, right? It shows us here that it's bearish. We know it's bearish. Step two is location. So, we're waiting for Asia session high to be taken. Asia session high is a setting that again I

[14:04] have in my SMC engine. Show Asia, show London, show New York. If you don't have, if you don't have this, your chart just looks like this. Which is why when oh, like, okay, cool. It looks great, but our charts look different. I'm

[14:16] video like, "What's the indicator that you use? How do I get the sessions?" Well, this is it. Asia session in blue, New York in orange, and green is London. So, now we're going to wait for the Asia session to get swept. So we'll play

[14:31] price London session opens as you can see here and then we sweep Asia right move on to step number three. Step number three is again part of location.

[14:43] So we have direction we have half of location but we need another part and that part is confirmation. So you can have direction. So we know now then that the direction is based off of the trend and the trend is bearish. So, we have

[14:58] our swing high, break a structure, our swing low. We know that we're bearish. We use the 15-minute time frame. And then we pull back in here. And now we have our Asia session is here. But that's our

[15:11] just sell as soon as we break above Asia? No. Because there are so many scenarios where we break above Asia, we continue all the way to the edge of the price. Only then we get our confirmation and then we get our trade. How many

[15:24] times would you have sold in here? So there's another part of this and that is after you get the sweep of Asia. Now we go to the one minute time frame and we see right now the one minute time frame is bullish. We just simply wait for the

[15:38] 1 minute to go from bullish to bearish for it to align itself with the overall trend because essentially when price puts in a lower low and then it starts to come back on the 1 minute time frame, you're going to be bullish. And when it

[15:51] goes and puts in the low again at some point very early on in here, the 1 minute shifts back to bearish and then the trend continues and then we take out these lows in here. So this is our edge right here. By

[16:03] finding this discrepancy and how does that look? Let's take a look at it. So drop to the 1 minute time frame. And again, we have our SMC engine. Though with you, the 1 minute time frame is the most confusing. The 15minut without the

[16:17] SMC engine is bearable. It's annoying, but it's bearable. Bro, the one minute time frame without the SMC engine, like I kid you not. You could easily spend 20 minutes, 30 minutes in this type of market environment trying to map the M1

[16:30] because look at it. Look at how rangey it is. And you have to first of all, you have. But even when I have a rule, I now need to go and look at all of this price meet my rule? Does it not? Okay, is it high? Is it a low? and this specific

[16:44] type of M1 price action where it's just so choppy and the M1 range is also large. It's horrible. So, right now we are bullish as you can see by this. We can see here M1 bullish. We have a swing low here. We have a breaker structure

[16:59] here. So, we're bullish right now. This is the M1 swing low. So, keep playing price. So, we're bullish right now. We'd probably be expecting price to continue And all we're doing is waiting for it to go bearish. And so either two like one

[17:14] Either we were going to break out here and then do this or we're going to break has shifted bearish. We've got a change of character down here. This is the new swing high. We have a change of

[17:26] character. So now we've confirmed bullet confirmed bearish. So now we can see that the 15-minute and the 1 minute are both in the same direction. They're both bearish. Now we have real confirmation that now we can get ready to short,

[17:38] Right? So once you've got your direction, then you need your location and then you need confirmation of that location and after you got the confirmation, you need your POI or your point of interest because again, you

[17:52] character and put your stops above here and you're down here. Even if you go to target for this trade, it's a one to two riskreward. Now, you might be thinking, two risk reward, and it's not terrible, but it could be so much better. And so

[18:07] come in here and we're going to enable order blocks and fair value gaps. And then what I always do is I go to the 5minut time frame. And my fiveminute interest, right? My point of interest. And that is always an order block or a

[18:20] beginner, you probably already know what an order block and a fair value gap is. If you are kind of really new to smart money concepts or just in general, a fair value gap is a is a formation where you have, you know, three candles and

[18:33] one and candle three. So you see here how candle one and candle three don't touch each other. That right there would be a fair value gap. Efficient candles will look something like this for example where there's no gap between one

[18:49] and three. Or it could even look like a bear another bearish candle but the are pretty high meaning we actually had a good amount of opportunity in here. So that's not an that's not a fair value. An order block is essentially a range in

[19:04] An order block is essentially a range in price. So a range in price before an aggressive expansion or a you know we call it supply and demand. A demand zone is a a range before an aggressive bullish expansion. A supply

[19:17] zone or a bearish order block a range before an aggressive expansion. So you can see here right this right here is a range before an aggressive expansion that also has a fair value gap. So here we have

[19:29] an order block and the fair value gap. And notice that price touches both of them. So now they've been traded. They're no longer really of been traded. They're no longer really of interest. So the next one would be this

[19:42] range and this fair value gap. So we can to be our area of interest. and our stop loss going to go above the highs and our takerit is going to go the swing low the direction of price

[19:57] previous days low and then I would also anticipate that previous week's low would go a good liquidity target is also for this trade previous week's low so we have take profit number one previous day's low and take profit number two

[20:09] previous week's low previous week and previous days low and this part of the indicator the directional bias I'm not covering in this video uh but again it's end wanting the indicator to make your trading bar and then you just wait. So,

[20:25] direction, location, confirmation, point of interest, and then your targets. And you just wait. Price comes back in, tags us in. We sit in this area for a while.

[20:37] Again, we just sit in this area for a while. It happens as well. New York session comes. We do get a bit of volatility toward our direction. And there's our first target here. So now we've hit our first target. And then

[20:52] the second target also gets hit. And yes, this is a trade that follows the exact rules of this trading strategy. This is not cherrypicked scenario. This actual trading strategy. And again, if you want the indicator and the trading

[21:06] link is of course in the description. Hope you enjoy it and subscribe if you Hope you enjoy it and subscribe if you want more

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