Nvidia Lost $1 Trillion — Should You Buy?
43sExpert challenges the Nvidia dip-buying frenzy after a trillion-dollar loss, making contrarian investors rethink their AI picks.
▶ Play Clip"Delivers on the premise with concrete AI ecosystem picks, though it overstates 'forget Nvidia' since the speaker still holds a core allocation."
A market strategist argues that Nvidia's $1 trillion sell-off is a warning, not a buying signal, and highlights better opportunities in the AI ecosystem. The conversation covers memory makers like Micron and SK Hynix, onshored foundries like TSMC, cooling and power plays such as Vertiv and American Electric Power, and the 'Air 7' basket that has far outpaced the Magnificent Seven.
The host asks if the guest is a contrarian buyer of Nvidia after the stock lost nearly $1 trillion in 14 days; the guest says no one is telling them to buy the dip and the sell-off is a warning.
The guest calls Nvidia the hub of the AI ecosystem but doesn't put it at the top of the buy scorecard, noting many other companies benefit from its success.
Nvidia has diversified revenue beyond chip sales; 88% of recent business comes from the data center.
The AI revolution comes to a halt without memory and power. Micron trades at only six times forward earnings, and when Micron turns away business, SK Hynix benefits.
Starting Friday, US portfolio managers can buy SK Hynix ADRs listed on Nasdaq instead of buying on the Korean stock exchange.
The guest would maintain a core Nvidia allocation, but if it dips below 20 times forward earnings it becomes a 'screaming buy'; currently around 22 times forward earnings.
The guest would wait on SK Hynix just as they waited on SpaceX, which IPO'd at rich valuations despite a $4 billion operating loss last year.
Micron signed a 10-year deal with Global Wafer to secure silicon wafer supply, and SK Hynix is oversubscribed.
The Magnificent Seven fell 1.7% on an equal-weighted basis in the first two quarters, reminding investors to focus on who receives AI spending.
The Air 7 basket includes Taiwan Semiconductor (largest dedicated chip foundry, onshoring Nvidia chips to Phoenix), Micron (onshoring in Syracuse), Vertiv Holdings (cooling), and American Electric Power (power).
Equal-weight Air 7 was up over 75% in the first two quarters versus the Magnificent Seven down nearly 2%.
What percentage of Nvidia's recent business comes from data center revenue?
88%
00:45
What forward P/E level would make Nvidia a 'screaming buy' according to the guest?
Below 20 times forward earnings; currently around 22 times.
01:55
Which memory maker is trading at only six times forward earnings?
Micron
01:00
Where will SK Hynix ADRs be listed starting Friday?
Nasdaq
01:14
How large was SK Hynix's operating loss last year?
$4 billion
02:38
Which company signed a 10-year deal with Global Wafer?
Micron
03:33
What was the equal-weight performance of the Magnificent Seven in the first two quarters?
Down 1.7%
04:28
Which companies are in the Air 7 basket?
Taiwan Semiconductor, Micron, Vertiv Holdings, American Electric Power, and other AI ecosystem beneficiaries.
04:43
How did the Air 7 basket perform versus the Magnificent Seven in the first two quarters?
Air 7 was up over 75% while the Mag 7 was down nearly 2% on an equal-weight basis.
05:33
Which utility stock is up over 20% year-to-date with a dividend yield above 2.5%?
American Electric Power
05:21
Nvidia as hub, not the only play
Reframes the AI trade from a single stock to an ecosystem of beneficiaries.
00:31Memory and power are silent enablers
Points to overlooked bottlenecks that can stop the AI revolution in its tracks.
01:00IPO hype can detach from fundamentals
Uses SK Hynix and SpaceX as warnings that enthusiasm can outrun real operating performance.
02:38Focus on who receives AI spending
Shows a practical investment filter that helped Air 7 outperform the Mag 7 by a wide margin.
04:28Air 7 outperformance proves the approach
Delivers hard numbers that validate a broader AI ecosystem strategy over concentration.
05:33[00:02] still rate Nvidia a buy or a strong buy despite it losing nearly $1 trillion in 14th. I have people telling me buy this dip. Are you my contrarian on Nvidia?
[00:15] I'm not Nobody's telling me that the sell-off is actually a warning signal. >> Yeah, I'm not the contrarian, but I also am not putting Nvidia at the top of my buy scorecard right now. To me, Brian, Nvidia stands as the hub of the AI
[00:31] ecosystem, and there are so many other companies that benefit from Nvidia's continued success. I'm also encouraged that Nvidia has actually brought in out their revenue to go beyond just chip sales, whereas in recent quarters 88% of
[00:45] center business. But I still believe there are better opportunities within the AI ecosystem. You mentioned Micron earlier. Yes, to me the AI revolution comes to a screeching halt without memory and without power. When I When I
[01:00] think about memory, I think about Micron, who's still trading at just six times forward earnings. But guess what? For every time Micron comes out and says that we can't keep up with demand. Well, who's going to benefit from them turning
[01:14] away business? It's going to be SK Hynix. And now myself as a portfolio manager starting on Friday will be able to buy shares of SK Hynix through their ADRs that are going to be listed on Nasdaq as opposed to encumbering the
[01:28] difficulties of buying on the Korean stock exchange. So, I've seen more will as well. >> Couple questions for you there, Kim. What would make you more excited to get in there and buy this pullback on
[01:40] cheapest levels from a PE ratio perspective since 2019. Does it need to pull back to 2017 levels? >> Yeah, I'm going to still maintain my core allocation to Nvidia. If in fact it dips below, let's say 20 times forward
[01:55] Yahoo Finance, it's trading roughly 22 times forward earnings. If it gets below times forward earnings. If it gets below 20, that becomes a screaming buy to me. away from the name. I just think there are other names that you can use to
[02:09] surround Nvidia that's going to provide you with even more growth opportunities, and that was the very genesis of my air 7 stock basket that I came up with. >> You mentioned on you mentioned SK Hynix. Are you a buyer of SK Hynix at some
[02:23] point on IPO day, or would you be more inclined to now wade into the other hot IPO of this year in SpaceX with a stock price that is below its IPO price? >> Yeah, I I think I would wait on SK Hynix just as much as I waited on SpaceX. It
[02:38] amazed me, to say the least, that a company that had an operating loss of $4 billion as recently as last year traded at the valuations it did at its IPO. I think you're going to see that same type of enthusiasm for SK Hynix, and if you
[02:52] you're going to find some more attractive levels to buy in that that >> And as I'm having flashbacks here to when then Facebook came public. A lot of hyper on that, and the stock was really in the trash bin for the for more I
[03:05] think almost 2 years. >> SK Hynix is the talk of the town now. I mean, if you take a look at what some strategists are are saying about this company, I mean, they are a provider for Nvidia. Their high bandwidth memory. So,
[03:19] there's a lot of enthusiasm around SK Hynix and the fact that investors now have also >> So, in the US a choice to be able to invest in this one as well. Now, Micron today you're seeing that bounce. By the
[03:33] way, they just signed a 10-year deal with Global Wafer. Those are that's the company that supplies silicon wafers that it's a supplier for Micron, so they are going to be securing supply. So, as it was just mentioned, I mean, the fact
[03:47] that SK Hynix is oversubscribed, you are seeing bullishness still in this AI memory trade even though we have seen a pullback in recent weeks. dropped a story on our homepage this morning. Look at the mag seven now.
[03:59] and large, except Alphabet up double digits. They have outperformed the S&P 500, but the valuation on the mag seven is it real? I think I wrote a significant discount relative to the S&P 500. Really the most of the biggest
[04:14] discount in more than a decade. Are you a buyer of these names? quarters of this year, Brian, to your point, the mag seven was down on an equal weighted basis 1.7%. And I think that should serve as a
[04:28] reminder to all investors. If you want to find growth opportunities in the opportunities, potential growth opportunities in years to come, focus not on who's spending, focus more so on who's receiving the spending. And that's
[04:43] where I got into this air seven concept. Yes, I still like Nvidia as I discussed, and I like Alphabet for the very reason that you just cited. But why not include other benefactors within that AI ecosystems, names such as Taiwan
[04:56] Semiconductor, who is the largest dedicated chip foundry in the world, and has onshored the production of their Nvidia chips to Phoenix, Arizona. Then I think of Micron, who's looking to onshore their domestic capabilities in
[05:09] Syracuse, and they're making announcement of later this morning. And then how about the cooling side of this whole scenario with a company such as Vertiv Holdings. And let's not forget about power. I mentioned that how
[05:21] important memory is, so is power. And I think about a utility company like American Electric Power, whose stock's up over 20% year to date, and yet they have a dividend yield of over 2 and 1/2%. If you equal weight those air
[05:33] seven, the benefactors of a lot of that spending through the first two quarters of this year, those stocks were up over 75% versus the mag seven that was down 75% versus the mag seven that was down nearly 2%.
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