Nasdaq Reversal & Memory Stock Meltdown — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:01] small channel. >> It is a wacky Wednesday, July 15th. We >> stuff coming out right now, literally as we speak. We got the PPI report. Uh market just jumped a little bit. We had some earnings overnight. We've got some

[00:15] earnings after the close. Seems like it's going to be a uh earnings infested >> Earnings infested day already. Rumors of a takeout at some point today. Um yeah, we got a lot of things to cover for sure. for us. As a matter of fact, let's

[00:29] talk about today and the different people we're going to interact with here. Of course, you got the open uh here with us. You got us the opening bell with Liz. We'll come on. She'll come on and talk about things she saw

[00:41] overnight. And uh we'll probably get off a few trades for you guys. Matter of fact, I already got one off. I forgot to mention I have a super bear on. We have a guest, Mark Likenfeld, chief income strategist of the Oxford Club. Looking

[00:54] talked to him once before uh back in April and we talked about Oracle and so far he was right about what he said. Errol will be at the CBOE. We'll talk to be talking about everything in NASDAQ terms which will be great. We'll see the

[01:08] levels that he's looking at. We're going to uh eventually get to live trades with Chris and Liz at 10 a.m. and then risk and reward with Gus and Earl. So, just a to be going through today. >> Love it. And uh join us on the YouTube

[01:22] throw in your trade ideas questions along the right hand side chat. We will >> Yeah. >> Uh but yeah, first things first, ASML >> Uh but yeah, first things first, ASML earnings uh came out just a little bit

[01:37] ago and uh we closed at 1775. We're trading at 1830 right now. >> Yeah. I mean, it's pretty pretty inside move all things considered. This has been a really high implied volatility product and this is well within the

[01:51] implied move uh for the earnings announcement, but inside up I think is out there. And I think this this could be one of those things that is pushing this market higher uh at least in the

[02:04] the first few minutes of the futures markets trading from from when we started talking. Yeah, I mean this is a name where uh it was kind of interesting name and and obviously I think anything happening with their earnings is going

[02:17] sentiment with semis, but this is definitely not one that we're trading. I mean the markets in here are criminally wide. I mean like $10 wide in some It was more about how it affects some of the other things that we have on. And it

[02:32] seems as though at least for now it's positive for semis, positive for tech. seems to be up. >> Love it. Uh we have I think we have Chris Beckio on the line. Do we not? >> We do. I think we do.

[02:45] >> I'm interested to hear what he has to say about the PPI report. Uh we do have >> Yeah, he'll be here >> information uh relative to the announcement or or the print I should say that just came out at 7:30 central.

[02:58] jumped up about 10 points. But yesterday I think the bigger move uh is what we saw. If you look at the minute chart in the E- Minis, you can see uh this jump right here. This is the PPI report that just came out right at 7:30

[03:14] he thinks. I mean, because we've actually bounced up on both of these still a problem, but clearly it's not that much of a problem. >> So, uh when we talk about CPI yesterday and PPI today, you know, you've seen

[03:29] You've seen times where they're bifrocated. Uh it's it's hard to tell what the market is thinking here, but guess the number was okay. >> Yeah. Uh yesterday was interesting though. We had the initial pop and then

[03:42] we sold off immediately and then kind of chopped around. And that was basically the story of yesterday. >> Uh as you can see there wasn't really too much movement. And then overnight session today kind of drifted higher

[03:55] slightly slightly slightly. Uh >> trying to see we did get a million. We did get a million in U ES contracts yesterday. So that worked out well. I it was um >> uh fairly elevated kind of early, but I

[04:09] right? So, uh we ended up, you know, getting over a million contracts on a you can ask for. >> Yeah, for sure. SKH Highix uh took a >> Yeah, for sure. SKH Highix uh took a tumble yesterday and uh it's going to be

[04:24] wild to see what happens with this product. initially uh opened at 170ish, dropped all the way down to the 150s, gapped up uh >> Yeah, gapped up big time. So, sorry, previous day we had a a drop on the

[04:40] we saw a big rally up to 190, but now we're sitting at 180. So, this is a the it's almost the exact same chart as SpaceX, interestingly enough, gapping

[04:52] down here. Let's see. We'll see if we trudge around these levels, 160, 170. Uh, but we do have options here. Yesterday, we only had like five expirations, I want to say. Now, we've got a lot more. Uh, so I imagine in the

[05:06] next couple days, they'll probably release weekly expirations as well. But again, part for the course. 100% implied volatility in all these cycles. You're going to see that uh for a lot of IPOs, most IPOs, just because you're seeing

[05:19] They're they're moving like they have binary events every single day. binary events every single day. >> Yeah. So far, um SK SKHYV not a good ticker. Stock was down. SKHY

[05:33] stock only goes up. [laughter] So, we'll see if that holds up today, but >> the four-letter tickers. >> Yeah, exactly. Yeah, five. Five is no >> Cool. Uh we do have Chris Veio on the line. Uh I want to hear what you have to

[05:45] say, Mr. Chris, about the PPI report. Good morning. >> Morning. I'd say just drop the V. It's a lot cleaner for the stock ticker. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. I'm looking forward to the sequel

[05:59] here. But yeah, you guys uh my eyes are on ASML this morning. Um yesterday with opportunities in markets where we had sustainable uptrends but short-term pullbacks and so we initiated a long position on ASML. You guys did. So that

[06:12] >> Yeah. So it looks like that's going to work out neatly so far today. But I right? their guidance was really strong. What does ASML do? They make the EUV order to make memory chips. So, when

[06:26] the demand for their products is real, then you know that there's more memory point in the future. So, we'll have to keep an eye on that. That's been a problem for the memory stocks in recent weeks. But for the companies like ASML

[06:39] or TSM, uh this is probably a decent shot. So, I'm looking forward to today. This morning, we have TSM earnings coming up on Thursday morning. Uh, I little entry right now. It's below its 1 month. It's above its 50. It's bouncing

[06:51] from its 50. And with the rest of the space, this is uh this is the first hopefully, unlike yesterday's JP Morgan trade, I can actually get filled. >> Why would you do it yesterday morning? >> Well, yesterday we were trying to sell a

[07:04] ripped. >> Yeah. Completely ran. >> It ran away. >> So, maybe we'll have better luck today. >> Yeah. JP Morgan. Oh, man. I had a call calendar and it dropped on the open and

[07:17] then I was like I forgot to close the shorts because those I had the three-day then we saw the intraday reversal and then I looked at it and they're all this is this could have been a $1,000 winner if I just closed these shorts."

[07:30] >> I know, right? >> Uh still a good winner. I had uh two call calendar spreads that I closed for I think 160 bucks, something like that. >> Yeah, 160 bucks. 340 350. you know, if we're, you know, the way that we were

[07:44] the way that we should be approaching TSM today. Um, I'm looking at the 37 days to expiration, the 39,400 short put spread. $10 wide, you're collecting $3.67 in credit, so better than a third of the

[07:58] width of the strikes. Um, generating $245 in theta at a 63% probability of below the 50-day moving average, as has been the modus operande around here for this particular buy the dip strategy that I like to employ. Uh, it worked

[08:13] things. So, going back into the well this morning at the open. Hopefully, we get filled today. 39,400 short put spread. >> Um, as uh yeah, that's a good point. There's a bunch of earnings coming out

[08:26] uh tomorrow morning. Also, one that comes out tonight, UL and Chris, this bit with the data we just got this morning. U obviously uh moves a lot with oil. Oil is is coming back again. Oil >> seemingly didn't really factor into the

[08:41] case today with PPI? It seems like we're jumping on these inflation numbers and be that worried about it. >> No, the market's getting kind of what it would be what's happening with the 2-year yield right now. Two-year yields

[08:56] are lower in part because the SR3 Z6 contract is moving up, right? The quick axis, you subtract that from 100. That's how you get the implied Fed funds rate particular expiration cycle. So PPI today prices fell 0.3% month overmonth

[09:13] versus an estimated reading of flat. They were uh uh core reading was up 0.2 versus 0.4. The the core headline 4.7 versus 5.2 anticipated. So um you know PPI comes out today and more or less confirms a little bit of the CPI relief.

[09:29] come in and there was still a bunch of inflation burbling through the pipeline. pipeline is slowing down itself, which inflation reaching the end consumer

[09:42] here. So, this is great news for I think markets. Generally speaking, the albatross are in the market's neck has always been higher yields and if the Fed July or September, then this train keeps going guys, right?

[09:56] Uh [laughter] >> so why why why are we going to get too worked up then? Um it's July after all and markets been off to a slow start in of the year. The best month of the year in fact. Maybe there's still time to

[10:09] point. >> Yeah. Uh after the CPI yesterday, we saw the looking at the CME Fed Watch tool, we saw the probabilities get cut in half. Uh market was expecting a 30% chance of 25 basis point hike and then

[10:24] 16 15. Uh this is light to dark going from a month back to current. So yeah, happens here. This is July and then if you go to September, similar story. Uh things are just flipping around here, but two days in a row of pretty similar

[10:40] readings for July and September. Um but yeah, curve, right? I mean, if ZT that's up today, ZN and ZB, they're basically flat. They're not even really trading higher. you're this there's this

[10:53] right now. So I I always go back to September 24 as like an anchor point for the environment. The Fed cuts 50 basis points. What happens to long and yields? the market was thinking that we needed a hike and all of a sudden hikes aren't

[11:07] coming, then inflation expectations can go up at the long end of the curve years, 30 years they go up. You get a little bit more of an acid inflationary environment. This is not our first rodeo, gentlemen. This is not our first

[11:21] something happening for sure underneath the surface here. Uh but I'm just um I'm curious at some point if the market changes its its tune. Um in the trading the way I've been trading. Things have been working out.

[11:37] >> Uh can I throw you guys one more trade idea this morning because it's related Healthcare coming up and that was a really big >> it felt like that was a big favorite for parts of last year after the all of the

[11:49] uh the murder of one of its executives to just bad business decisions. [laughter] Um but the stock's been on an absolute tear, right? It's trading at 416 pre-market right now. It again fits that criteria that I have below the one

[12:03] it's been a pretty strong uptrend in recent weeks. So with the earnings toe in here as well. 396 is your 50-day moving average right now. So sitting out moving average right now. So sitting out at 37 days, I'm looking at 380 370. Uh

[12:17] that's at the one standard deviation move, it's just not paying enough. So little bit more this morning. I'm going to be patient on this. Uh because right now it's a $142 in credit for $10 worth uh wide strikes. So that's a little too

[12:30] tighten up, we can get another like5 or $10 drop, I can start to dip my toes in looking this morning. Things that fit my buy the dip criteria. And if we have a catalyst coming around the corner, like an earnings report, all the better.

[12:44] here actually. Um, looks pretty good to me. When I look at the 2-day versus 9day, look at the 450 strike. I can get that for a buck 43, which likely means if you're interested in a diagonal,

[12:58] Usually, if the calendar calls line up nice, the diagonals line up nice, too, you know. So, >> yeah, a good one. This is actually This >> yeah, a good one. This is actually This one's cheaper uh than what we were just

[13:10] looking at with uh TSM >> TSM >> I would think >> just looking at like the same exact move, selling that at the 440 and then buying the 9-day 440. Uh you're getting

[13:25] half of the cost basis reduction if you're you're collecting four bucks, paying eight bucks uh for the 2-day 9-day split. But when you look at UNH, you are collecting way more. You're collecting four bucks against six bucks.

[13:38] So the ratio is significantly higher. And when you have those setups, your break evens are way wider because you're paying way less uh dollar for dollar or at least you're collecting more dollar for dollar and reducing basis

[13:51] aggressively. Like this is a huge cost basis reduction. And all you need to basis reduction. And all you need to happen here for this trade is uh for this option in the nine-day cycle. And you can see there's plenty of situations

[14:04] >> And that's a great call out because yeah, look at the uh the IVX for the both of them. I mean, between two-day and 9day for UNH, it's it's like 30 points whereas it's like 10 points for TSM because VA just stays been there

[14:19] if it's earnings or not. Every day is earnings in TSM and all these other [laughter] names. >> Yeah. Right. Oh, what happened >> Right. Yeah. >> Okay. Sure. Just another day.

[14:32] summer days. What? Summer? What's summer? This ain't summer trading. This day. >> It's It's all viable. >> It has. >> Joking before the market. I I haven't

[14:46] yesterday and we come in here and it's like 100 degrees in the studio. I'm [laughter] >> I know, right? His house. The studio. Chris. I don't need that in my house. I've been burning sage on my property to

[15:00] rid myself [laughter] of all the black swan events. Maybe that you have walking through the hallways just saying no black swan go away. [laughter] Go away. >> Unbelievable. Love it.

[15:14] >> Uh yeah, you minis are creeping higher here. Up 18. Nasdaq's up 150. Everything here. Up 18. Nasdaq's up 150. Everything seems to be green. Um are you are you trading these crude oil markets? I mean, the backwardation continues to creep in

[15:27] here. Now, we're getting a lift in the back here. These were sub 70 yesterday. Now, they're above 70 and the 1 day, 30-day, 64-day continue to climb higher >> Actually, that's a good point. I didn't look at the overnight. Um, you know, cuz

[15:40] things are moving a lot overnight, but it seems like it was kind of quiet overnight, right? >> Pinned. Pinned overnight. Stuck near 79. most of my uh long deltas, which visly

[15:52] underwater and so I wanted to give myself a little bit of a mental break right back on. Um I think I said to myself I was going to take two weeks off feeling emotionally. But >> it's about to go higher, especially

[16:05] [laughter] >> Yeah. But I'm still operating out in the the U6, the V6, and the Z6 cycles where, you know, Mike, you point out that we're the backwardation creeps in, and then every time the market kind of resets,

[16:18] just a little bit of a higher price floor out there. Um, I'm of the I'm of the view that we're kind of stuck in a quagmire right now with Iran. And so, to continue. They're not going to back down, nor will we, at least through the

[16:32] midterms. So, dips on oil selling put spreads. Uh, I'm going to treat the pre-war levels as the Florida workaround. It was ultimately correct. Thank you, Mr. President. But now it's time to find the

[16:46] >> Chris, real quick, uh, just go back over why um, somebody asked in the chat, go trade right now. And what is it? UNH, I >> Yeah. So, one of the like rules of thumb heristics that we have around here is

[16:58] something like a short put spread or a short call spread, you're usually width of the strikes in terms of that credit. And so, when you're looking at a $10 wide put spread and you're only collecting a $142, it feels a little

[17:11] light, which is why TSM is so much more appealing because you're getting 367 or more than a third of the width. So, I think the risk-to-reward is a little bit juicier, a little bit more tolerable for what we're trying to accomplish.

[17:24] >> Nice. Nice. Your boy Williams is on the uh tape right now. It sounds like uh shelter inflation should remain on downward path. Expect overall inflation downward path. Expect overall inflation to fall to 3 and a/4% by year end.

[17:37] target? >> Yeah. [laughter] >> All right. Um yeah, I think >> mission accomplished. when it comes to and it was it was interesting to see because when we got that initial news

[17:54] headline that things were heating up again, it was an interesting scenario because all there was like four of these contracts and to see this I just click expirations and then they added this new feature. You can just X out the regular

[18:08] expirations here to to reverse it. But this is how how we look at the curve. Really easy to do. But when they made that initial announcement, we saw 74 in the 1 day, 74 in the 33-day, 74 in the 64 day, 74 in the 92day. And that was

[18:23] exactly the sentiment that you just said where we're expecting this to be happening for a lot longer. The first time it was really just an emphasis on the near-term cycles, maybe the first and second contract, but the fact that

[18:35] had the same reading, and then the back months were still in the 70s kind of is the sequence of those numbers tells you this is going to be a thing that's probably going to last for a lot longer than we think. Yeah. And just being

[18:49] really marched on here, right? When we were talking about this in March and out to September, you know, this thing could really be extending into the middle of the year." Now we're talking about another six months out is 2027.

[19:01] >> So now that's no longer no longer a quick little special operation. That was the Russian term for invading Ukraine. I you know >> See it's hard to keep up. That's why I stopped doing it man. That's why I just

[19:14] look at the price action man. I can't >> No, I think the important point there is like Russia Ukraine is still going on. Do we care about it? >> not really. The market does not react to it at all. So once we can once the

[19:28] going for the oil and all the uh petrochemicals, fertilizer etc from the region and they can reroute that supply elsewhere, the war can just grind on and from the straight going to be gravy everything else this is just the new

[19:42] >> Yeah. >> Higher floor under oil >> craziness. Um we put on some SPX Super Bowls or I had a Super Bowl this morning. I'm going to take it off so that Jamal can get his super bear right

[19:56] markets will sell off. >> So, uh, trying to route this for $150 winner. I routed it for a 10-cent credit. Um, and the name of the game for spread to buy a call spread and completely offset the cost of it. I

[20:10] long as it's a credit. Uh, and you're really just replacing your put spread credit to get value out of your call spread credit. So maybe going back to UNH where Chris you said you didn't like the riskreward there. Maybe uh you you

[20:24] replace it with you know a 10point wide put spread to buy a five point wide call the rally your P&L looks a lot different. The risk is still the same of >> I got to make I got to make my shopping list for today. So I got UNH I got uh

[20:40] Fiserve for reasons I will explain once Gus gets on. Um what else have we talked if I'm doing UAL. [clears throat] Anything else you guys got? >> yeah, I mean I have Johnson and Johnson on my list, too. Uh, just because it it

[20:55] criteria here. >> Um, it's a little bit below that, uh, we're talking about former highs that were in place throughout February, March, running in around like 245 to 250. So, we're kind of at that spot

[21:08] right now. Um, 78 IVR, the raw volatility is not super high in the 26 27 area. if you go out over the next few weeks. Nevertheless, got to take So, I'm trying to be, you know, I'm being a little mechanical here. If it

[21:22] fits the criteria, then we just execute. >> I agree. And and um I, you know, I think point, we've been growing our books a little bit. So, it's like we got to find better than others. I've actually been looking at this one too for maybe

[21:35] selling a put in here. This fits my uh consumer staples long situation I got up selling a put in here as well. you know, I think that's where too. It's like, okay, where have I positions? ASML, WDC, SMH, NASDAQ, uh,

[21:51] you know, SPY. All right, this is all very like high beta growth centric. beta weighted deltas in my portfolio? I could take short positions some of these uncorrelated stocks, >> right? Um, so looking at J&J, looking at

[22:05] UNH, looking at um, you know, TSM obviously doesn't fit that bill, but healthcare has been strong. >> It has. And we have I have a lot of long what, on the days where the semis and the tech are down, I'm actually still

[22:19] doing well in the book because I decided to put on a lot of those consumer staple stuff. Um, and the rotation is working. I I know for a fact there's going to be a day because I keep seeing it with all this different um, data. As a matter of

[22:32] many as any. Let's pull up uh one of these charts, the one with uh the DPSX these charts, the one with uh the DPSX uh dispersion chart on it. Um I uh I I I know there's going to be one of these days where all of it goes down. It's not

[22:46] it's not going to be a rotation. There's going to be a day where tech is down and consumer staples are also down. And that's going to be the day where we're probably down over 100 and change and VIX actually moves up a little bit. But

[22:59] situation. This is from our friends at the SIBO. And um you know, when you look at dispersion, it's at a six-year high right now, meaning correlation is is not correlation is low. And look where VIX is. Usually VIX is a little bit higher

[23:13] when dispersion is high. As you can see, last time it was this high was around the time of uh the liberation day. So this is kind of an interesting chart. If this. You think the market is going to fall at some point in time. This is kind

[23:27] of your guide. At some point, maybe it does. I don't know how it does it during the middle of earnings. Somebody has to be the bearer of bad news. I would think, whoever that may be, but just something to keep an eye on. This is

[23:39] why, you know, it's nice to be in the euphoria of the market, but got to pay ignore it. >> Yeah, absolutely. And I think uh I think bearers of bad news or at least they'll print a number and the market will just

[23:55] disregard it, scoff at it. >> Uh because a lot of these tech stocks, I mean all of these tech stocks have astronomical expectations and that can sometimes be a recipe for disaster. If there's any kind of slowdown in guidance

[24:10] or if they if they just meet the number, that's the crazy thing. If they meet the number and they don't kill it, that could be a a catalyst for a market >> Well, we're two weeks out from July 29th, which is when Meta, Microsoft, all

[24:22] those guys. So, you know, get you got two weeks to get your affairs in order. Two weeks. >> Just two weeks. >> Um, yeah. E- mini still chopping around here. Up 22, NASDAQ up 200. Uh, the Dow

[24:36] and the Russell. What do you make of the the Dow? The last couple of days the Dow has been moving at a complete uh negative one correlation to the E- Minis and NASDAQ. We've seen a handful of times where E-I-E-I- NASDAQ up, Dow

[24:49] times where E-I-E-I- NASDAQ up, Dow down, Ein Nasdaq down, Dow up. Do you read into that at all? Uh wasn't there a wasn't there a piece of news yesterday from one of uh the bigger Dow components? Am [snorts] I am

[25:02] I mistaking things? >> Uh what was it related to? IBM, They u basically came out and said >> 2.5% of the waiting, right?

[25:14] >> Yeah. Their their customers are basically wanting more um more AI related offerings or something like that. yesterday. >> Yeah. I guess

[25:27] >> somebody drew a line here. >> That just that feels like that may be a contributing factor for maybe why the Dow's been underperformed recently. >> there's a cool >> but I mean look look at the look at the

[25:39] names here. I mean Goldman Sachs, Caterpillar, UNH, Microsoft, Google, those are the top five components. Um among them you're talking about like 35% downtrend. We're looking at opportunities in UNH. Caterpillar

[25:52] We know Goldman just surged to alltime highs yesterday. So I mean look, there are some idiosyncratic things right now that are weighing down [snorts] uh the index, but I don't know if you want to you have to look beneath the surface

[26:04] because of how the Dow's constructed. It's It's a special index. >> I was like, "It's a special." >> There it is. >> Um, yeah, we've got IBM up three points. Uh, three and a half points and I needed

[26:21] up another 30 for this calendar spread. But I like the way that this sets up. Long post earnings, short pre-earnings with the intention to roll from the 2-day to the 9-day. Uh, and I can tell you right now this option initially that

[26:35] I sold for.7 cents, trading for 30 cents now. But 9day, you can see here the 250 is still trading for $2 and change. So, it's going to be some kind of two $3 roll uh especially if we keep rallying from

[26:49] here, it'll just increase that roll credit. But I plan to do that uh either premium in there. >> And I just straight up sold a put in >> There you go. >> Yeah. There you have it.

[27:02] >> Um, yeah. And you know, I just mentioned that Caterpillar there as well. Just morning. Uh, $8.99 short put spread. I have that order in to go as well here. trades that we've talked about this morning. It fits the criteria. $3.58 of

[27:17] credit generated. Uh, $10 wide strike. So over a third of the width of the strike, 59% probability of profit. Where does it sit? Just below the 50-day. It's you got this I I really like this dynamic. Right now, the market has had a

[27:30] start to July. All the bears are like, "Ah, bulls are giving up because the the halfway point. It's the odds of July, as it were." And so, now we can finally get our return to the upside. And yes, I am absolutely talking my

[27:44] birthday this week. And so, let's go. Birthday, buddy. When's your >> Uh, all day on Saturday. >> All day on Saturday. >> Yeah, man. Happy early birthday. >> Yeah. Yeah. Thank you.

[27:59] present. >> We'll give you a present by way of unhy and uh >> just like cat unh feel cat feels right. >> I knew I knew portfolios got >> cat. I I saw his I just saw it like

[28:14] happen like I saw it happen. I was like you [laughter] >> Um I was filled on that Super Bowl got filled uh just now. So, I sold it for 10 cents, routed it for 10 cents, got out

[28:29] of it for a $140. So, it's $150 winner in and out in 15 minutes uh into this rally for uh PPI. That was really the reason why I put it on because CPI, we saw a little bump in the market. PPI, we saw the same thing. Um and I just want

[28:45] to secure that before it goes away. We can revisit uh maybe some zero day stuff good thing. >> It's nice. quite nice. Uh but yeah, break. Join us on the YouTube channel. Throw in your trade ideas and questions

[29:01] along the righth hand side chat. We already just showed one, but uh yeah, you're watching Tasty Live. We'll see you in 90 seconds.

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[32:35] got the E- Minis up 20, the NASDAQ up almost 200, and it seems to be a nice green day after the PPI report. We had ASML earnings after uh a little bit of a faltering yesterday. We're seeing that up a little bit today. We've got some

[32:49] other sympathy moves in TSM. We've got a handful of other products reporting earnings today. But I'm joined by Jamal and Gus. And Gus always brings the heat. >> Doing good. Always good. I I was I was telling you guys a little a little

[33:02] we're gonna turn it on for for this show here. I've had 12 12 fluid ounces of cold brew already. It flowth freely. More shall enter my body very shortly. So, we're we're doing good. >> Yeah, it's been uh it's been a crazy

[33:15] morning and uh that's why we've got cold brew and tap here at Tasty. >> One one of the one of the best perks of of any job anywhere perhaps. This this bonus really when you think about it. >> I mean, well, it depends on who you are.

[33:28] like on hard knocks that someone will go up and they'll be like 20k and then 3.5 million. [laughter] That's how I see how this >> my name is Yeah. My name is Caleb Williams. $10 million sign. [screaming]

[33:46] interesting stories today. Gonna going to stay away from uh talking earnings covered some things moving yesterday and we got lots of fun non-earning stories to touch on. First one, not going to spend a lot of time here, but oil rising

[34:00] again. We have resumed strikes on Iran. Uh Trump has said that they will continue to intensify if if these peace talks don't go well into the next week. So you you want peace. Here's some bombs. I don't know. Perhaps a good

[34:12] negotiating strategy, but it is continuing to drive oil upward. So keep keep your eyes on oil. Uh it's I I'm too scared to touch it myself, but if for anybody with the cojones to do so, I respect it. Uh beyond that, Alibaba is

[34:25] moving this morning. First real topic for today. Uh their shares are opening set to open up about 4% after Apple announced that they are partnering with Alibaba to integrate Alibaba's. Now this is a tough word. It is QN AI is the

[34:40] spelling here. I have seen lots of American media outlets pronounce this Quen. So I believe that to be acceptable, but I I a man of culture know that Q's are pronounced like a CH in Chinese. So formally chuen is how

[34:54] you're supposed to say this. Anyway, TW AI uh they are they are integrating it into Apple intelligence in China. So that's all iOS everything iPad, Mac, uh any any Apple operating system is going to have Alibaba's twin AI integrated

[35:07] into it uh for Apple intelligence applications in China. And Alibaba won this uh in a bidding war isn't the right word, but a business war with DeepSeek to get this partnership with Apple. >> Schwin, is that like Schwin?

[35:20] >> Well, it's funny you say that. Someone actually in the YouTube chat back in the day, this is obviously a core memory now, I guess. But uh pendodo, we used to call it pindoo, and they're like, "No, no, no. It's pendodo, like door without

[35:33] didn't even realize it. >> Now you know. >> Now you know. >> I thought that was dowo. Honestly, ways. Man of culture, huh? >> Exactly. Exactly. No, it's because of my

[35:47] uh uh here's a here's a random NBA player for the morning. Uh, Rockets ball aware. All right, that's that's how I know about the hu being being ch thing. Um, next next thing I have on the docket for today, Warren Buffett uh

[36:01] continues to be involved with uh Berkshire Hathaway. It it would seem uh that he said in an interview this morning that he initiated Bergkshire Hathway's investment into Apple in Q3 of last year. Sorry, Alphabet, not Apple,

[36:15] Google/Alphabet. uh weren't Berkshire Hathway put $4.3 billion into Alphabet in Q3 of last year. Uh and now he has come out and said that it was him and not the new CEO Greg Ael who initiated that investment.

[36:27] So he is even though he you know on paper is a little more handsoff uh has hands-on. Could this move Bergkshire shares into today? I don't know. But confidence him saying he's still doing some of the shot calling.

[36:43] >> Reminds me of Tom Brady. thought he was [laughter] gone. He's like, "No, I got >> Always coming back. >> Yeah. I just Yeah. I imagine him, I don't know, playing playing golf, bored, and he's like, "Oh, man. I I miss it and

[36:56] yeah, [laughter] I don't know. But yeah, that's uh the swing that that Bergkshire Hathway took on Alphabet uh as well as their investment into uh Google's $10 billion funding round for AI. Both of those spurred by by Warren Buffett

[37:09] himself, not the new CEO. So, he's still around. Well, he gets he gets per he gets um in these stocks at really good levels all the time. So, >> be interesting to see. I mean, yeah, Google I know Google rallied when when

[37:23] that happening uh towards the end of the end of last year. >> Um and yeah, I'm just interested to see if this has any bearing on on has waned a little bit from that stock since Warren Buffett's departure. Uh,

[37:36] and so if he's saying, you know, it's it's still me, uh, that that could change things for them. >> Uh, last big one, PayPal back in the reason. They've been in the headlines as of late. Another buyout offer. Payments

[37:50] firm Stripe, uh, and private equity company Adventurer to buy PayPal for $53 billion, which would price PayPal at $60.50 per share. That offer was submitted earlier this month. PayPal has yet to formally respond. Uh obviously as

[38:04] with every publicly traded company, PayPal has a fiduciary duty to issue a going to be receptive or not remains to be seen, but two uh two buyout offers for for PayPal already in in 2026. It's a it's a hot commodity.

[38:18] >> Yeah. And this is a significant move. We've got >> PayPal up over almost 10 bucks, which brings us above the gap down that we saw uh in February. So yeah, strong move here. And just just so you guys are

[38:32] aware, I don't know, we haven't really talked about or experienced a a buyout uh recently, but another interesting thing, so we we look at like crude oil backwardation. You can look at the probability of a buyout regardless of

[38:45] what the sentiment is in the news headlines because if you see a gap up like this, let's say 56, and then you go to these options expirations and you go to like August and there's 10-cent bid, 10-centent bid on either side, then you

[38:58] go to January of 2028 and you see 10-centent bid, 10-centent bid, that implies that the market has concluded this is a done deal. So, like as this goes along, if if it does go along, let's say the buyouts at again $56 a

[39:11] share to get your confirmation, you would go to these options expirations, across the board. >> Yep. No, it's a good point. And to that >> Yep. No, it's a good point. And to that end, um you're seeing now uh companies

[39:24] come after payment situations like like this. I it makes me a little bit interested. I'm looking at comparable and fiserve s FISV. I might look at that and see if somebody eventually is going to buy that. The way

[39:37] you play a buyout, like you said, look at uh maybe cheap upside. Um I don't thing and it would be a duration play. I mean, this would definitely be further out. Maybe even I don't know, September to Jan. Uh we'll see. But I might end up

[39:51] if maybe this gets a nice little buyout. Who knows? Maybe they'd want to buy this nice. This thing's only 27 billion, by the way. This that buyout is 60 billion for PayPal. again if it goes through this market cap on this name is is 27

[40:05] considering >> Yeah, I've been long fizer uh since the here in November of last year when it was at about 30 billion. So I was too I hurting. I think I still might have those leaps open at close to worthless

[40:21] right now. Um I'm not entirely sure. Maybe I took this one off. Uh but yeah, But I think I think that's a aute observation if if people are are going Fizer is is one that would come up uh and and for cheaper than PayPal at that.

[40:35] >> Yeah. And you're seeing a little bit of a bid, a little bit of sympathy bid here. Uh they closed at 49 half yesterday. They're at 51 half right now. >> Yeah, I might buy some some Jam 2027 calls.

[40:47] >> Um something just coming across my desk here. Uh United Airlines is migrating. They're gonna start offering the ability to keep the middle seat open on long haul flights [laughter] on their new on their new Airbus. It's like a it's like

[41:02] a different tier. It's there's going to be a whole section where there's no table in the middle seat for customers to share and you pay a little bit more and there's nobody in the middle. So, there's something for you. Breaking

[41:14] news. I don't [laughter] >> cut cut out the middleman with United that's going to hurt things, but I mean, >> you tell this guy's in marketing or what? [laughter] >> Yeah, I think I think all the all the

[41:26] trying to, you know, kind of try to increase comfort, get people to spend a little bit more money, serve things a little bit more alle cart. Uh, I I like moving away from giving automatic access to to lounges instead and offering that

[41:39] can pay for. Like you can I know a lot are now doing uh you can buy first class and it's a little bit cheaper. I like it. feel like it gives the consumer more mobility. I don't know. Competition is good. Uh, keep competing airlines. Thank

[41:53] in coach, you had basically seats that looked like uh first class seats and it was just two on each side. >> Now it's like they just cram as many >> Yeah. No, I have the United Club card

[42:06] and it's it's been the most valuable card by far in terms of the perks you get. Yeah. You get United Club access, you can uh take economy seats, bring yeah, lots of competition and that that'll be good for the consumer at the

[42:20] brands, but thank you Gus. Appreciate your time. We'll see you a little bit later today. Uh Ein selling off a little bit here. Up 17, down about five points to take a quick 90 second break. Bring in Liz for the opening bell. You're

[42:34] in Liz for the opening bell. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[44:11] Minis and NASDAQ selling off just a tad, but they're still green on the day. E-in up 15, NASDAQ up 150. We've got about 15 minutes exactly until the equity open. We got Liz on the line. And Liz, uh, we've already put on some global trading

[44:27] hours, S&P trades. I took one off for $150 winner. Now we need the market to tank for Jeral's. Oh, Jamal bearish in his. >> Yeah, it's uh you know, don't read into it too much. It's against the book.

[44:39] we make money. >> Mike's already in and out. Jamal's got >> Trust me, we make money if the market goes up. We're It's just against the doing? >> I get it. Good. How are you guys? I was

[44:51] having you on the break. So, the only we the only earnings of note today is you >> Tonight. Yeah. Yeah. for tonight um at the at the close and then it's more again. >> What do you got tomorrow morning?

[45:04] >> Uh tomorrow morning we got uh wait no that's Thursday. Uh tomorrow morning we got UNH, TSM, GE, uh Abbott for those who who care, US Bank, State Street. Um but I would say

[45:18] UNH and TSM are probably the ones I'm looking at the most. GE I'd like to sell looking at the most. GE I'd like to sell V after. GV was a kind of a play that I ago, but it just wasn't working. The stock kept moving way too much.

[45:31] the ball's a little elevated in here in the 40s, so I don't mind selling V after >> Yeah, Netflix too. >> Jamal, you referenced this before, but smart reference. Yes. >> Can you [laughter]

[45:45] >> can you Mike show how you got to this list for people that are just joining other day in a meeting. We have the earnings on here as well. And I could easily go and look, but I like to ask you guys. It's easier. [laughter]

[45:58] >> Yeah. So, you just go to the watch list tab right here. Uh, this vertical bar in watch list on the left is where you can get a ton of information for a lot of different things. But, yep. >> Yeah, go to the watch list. And then we

[46:12] have a ton of uh preset watch lists, but this one specifically is under the earnings. You can look at tasty earnings as well. kind of more of a a handpicked list, but all earnings and then just change the time frame uh sorting here.

[46:28] Earnings at up arrow is going to give you the most recent earnings. And then if you see the arrow before to the left of the bell, that means before the market opens. To the right of the bell means after the market closes. Um so

[46:41] here. I like to look at like market indices in the morning uh on the open, see what's moving in the NASDAQ 100, S&P 100. But for trade ideas, you can also

[46:53] look at uh where is the Oh, it's under tasty. Yeah, 52- week near high, 52- week near low. So, if you're looking for, let's say you're you're bullish on the the overall S&Ps,

[47:06] you can look at the tasty watch list, 52- week near low. If you're looking at for bullish opportunities, that'll pull products that are within 5% of their 52- week low. And then for the high, 52- week near high, the same story, within

[47:20] 5% of their 52- week high. And then you can look at all these other ones, too. >> there's a lot of stuff in those watch lists, which is pretty. And then you can that when I'm looking for something to do. I'll sort by low or high and then

[47:34] here? >> Yep. Um, and we were talking about correlation and dispersion, too. If you have core spy, that'll pull the correlation that you see uh in the overview tab as well when you're looking

[47:47] at stuff. So, if you're looking at bullish bearish uh things to get on, you can see the the three-month correlation to spy right here. Perfect. No, I like it. And the kids these days have everything. Um, so you

[48:01] you know what I find fascinating? I'm just going to give this only because it I'm looking at overnight now that we can. So if you go can you go to SPX for me Mike and go to the zero day the number one leader on the board. Now keep

[48:13] change. The number one leader on the board in the calls is 7600 today. So the open interest is 6,000 but already 57 5700 have traded in in

[48:29] >> What about to the downside? to the downside the put leader um 75 7550 >> so like right at the monies and what I case study on this is I'm looking pre-market and then I'm also looking at

[48:44] the end of the day and I said this when I was at the SIBO it's almost like a numbers where lots of volume is trading so we watch I watched it yesterday the calls yesterday it was 7550 was the number one on the board and it it it

[48:58] closed what 755047 or something like that So, it's been an interesting watch for me in the morning to see. And they're in early. Like it's 4:00 and 7600 was the leader on the board. >> Yeah.

[49:11] >> 5:00. I can't [clears throat] say 4:00. I wasn't up that early. [laughter] >> Yeah, we're definitely seeing uh a pull higher like even just the general open interest on the downside uh outside of the 7550 like you mentioned. You got 1K

[49:24] 800 like there's not much volume here or open interest and then you look at the upside and it's multiples. uh across the board, especially as you go further out. >> And I know it's been lighter volume, but even yesterday, the the 7550 calls at

[49:38] the end of the day had about 200,000 options that were traded, which is didn't have any. They had, you know, about a thousand. If we were going to do that same thing today, if you go to the 7,600, just just kind of saying that

[49:50] 6,000 have traded right now, but by the end of the day, it was like 191,000 had traded. It was insane. So the these are for options that have no you no real open interest 6,000 which is nothing than to have almost you know 190,000 at

[50:04] numbers that are flying around. >> Massive for sure. >> And it's been a it's been a rise in the zero day uh for sure the near-term S&P options. I mean it's it's been astronomical growth and I think it's all

[50:18] just a precursor to everything being instant and and readily available. I mean that that is the that's what we wanted to see from an accessibility standpoint, but also like pattern day trading rule going away with day trade

[50:31] power. Now you've got the rise in zero day options. Now you've got global trading hours for indices. Soon you'll have global trading hours for equities. It's just the it's the future of what the what we're expecting here.

[50:44] everything these days. >> They have everything these days, Jamal. And I was laughing when you were talking about you remember coach with two seats you're aging [laughter] yourself there." >> I I I remember it. I remember it. I

[50:57] I remember is seeing a picture of me and my brother on a plane as a kid. As I up, uh my my parents got divorced when we were little and so we used to fly back and forth between our parents and um I just remember that like I've seen

[51:12] next year. I was like, "Wait a minute, is that two big seats right next to each at all. That's not a thing. >> No, it does not. >> Well, that's what they're that's what they're heading towards clearly. I mean,

[51:24] but some of us, we don't mind paying for comfort, right? I mean, honestly, is I you could easily see them changing this whole cramming sardines in at some >> Now, that being said, I'm bullish United because I, as Mike, am a United girly,

[51:40] and I love the United club. I love the United lounge. I love free procco. It's United lounge. I love free procco. It's not free, but you know what? [laughter] >> So, what are we doing in United then? What's going on? What's the word?

[51:52] because we were you said this is the only notable one. This if when I play not airlines in sectors. I have a tendency to pick a favorite. Chinese stocks, it'll always be JD even though there's no correlation to Baba. But in

[52:05] only because I'm a fan of the the product. So, I'll probably do a bullish diagonal here. Like, you know, I'll lie you guys how you how you guys have done the two-day and maybe buy the nine-day or the 16-day, sell the at the expected

[52:19] move and buy the buy the by the at the buy the at the moneyies and the farther >> I just I love how emotional she is about her trading. You know what I mean? Like, her trading. You know what I mean? Like, [laughter]

[52:31] Never let the [laughter] truth get in the way of a good story. heard. >> Yeah. I I totally like it. And I think uh if you just do like the comparison of these two options, August I think is

[52:44] bit more, but you have a little bit less and you've got twice the amount of time. So just depends on the setup. But yeah, long August like the 120s right at the money and then in the 2-day you could

[52:58] sell the 127, 128, 129. Like all these are are pretty liquid. Once once these >> Yeah, they're still pretty premium. There's a lot of premium. You look at expect to get, you know, even close to that for getting that far away.

[53:12] >> Yeah. Well, let's trip. Let's, you know, pull up the chart. Um, go to 72, uh, you know, July 2nd. >> Yeah. >> Yep. See 72 and then go to crude 72. I

[53:24] mean, you just see the complete reverse. It literally started [laughter] >> exact same time. So, you wonder if they're going to talk about um what's they got to mention it. I wonder if they're worried about it. inflation

[53:36] inflation numbers we've been getting. Seems to be fine. So, I'm really curious say on their earnings than um anything else. >> Yes. Yes. But but once again, I don't mind being in the airlines. It's a it's

[53:50] a $120 product right now. It's got a 43 IVR. It's something that I'll lean always a lot cheaper. Always a lot cheaper. But I I do prefer to play in the United realm. I think I can, you

[54:02] getting long this whether I sell a put or any way, shape, or form because I'm >> there you go. >> Yeah, [laughter] it's probably the play. oil and you haven't gotten out of it yet?

[54:15] >> Okay. [laughter] All right. >> I just got in two days ago. >> Yeah. No, I wasn't in the bottom. I I just I literally got in. I'm in for the ride to I don't know, close to 90. We'll see.

[54:27] >> Poor KBIO was sweating it for the last two weeks. [laughter] didn't he? He pulled you into it. >> I I I I mean, I kind of felt like a position. >> Well, let me tell you, if it keeps going

[54:40] He's really going to be annoyed. of his position into that rally. >> I'm telling you now, since you talked to goes. If it keeps going up, he's going to be like annoyed. [laughter]

[54:55] >> Yeah. Yeah. >> That's what they say. Okay, what else did you guys do this morning? So, SPX in and out. Did you do >> We're making a shopping list. I'm making a shopping list of different trades. Um,

[55:08] >> Don't you want to get into them early? Don't you wish we could trade >> I mean, we can't. [laughter] >> Yeah. >> Um, yeah, it's interesting to see. I

[55:21] >> you know what? Honestly, no. I don't want that. I don't want to trade waiting. I like the waiting and I like there's a finite time as far as individual names, you know, ES and and and SPX, that's great, you know, trading

[55:35] overall but I don't want to trade individual. You know how you know what a >> it's coming. These headaches are coming. >> If a CEO does something overnight, >> And that's when they're going to do things. If I were CEO of a company and I

[55:51] >> That's usually when they do. And that's I don't feel like trading the stock at But anyway, >> I really do have a I have a theory that comes out Monday morning before the market opens, like you're trying to hide

[56:03] like, >> oh, Friday. No, Friday. Friday. It's Friday after the close. When there's any like, huh? that in there. Don't worry about this. Go away. Go go go hang out with your

[56:17] >> I'm surprised IBM didn't come out with this news on Friday. I bet there was Friday. Why Why do you do that on a Tuesday? Like what are you thinking? >> But but I do think that that I think this is a this is a head fake. I think

[56:31] their earnings are going to be amazing. >> I agree with you. That's why I sold the >> I really think this is >> Yeah, this is a pretty clean situation here. The last time we saw this level was in May

[56:45] point and we we're already bouncing about three points from this level here. So, we're implied to open around 220. It'd be crazy if we saw this liquidation and then we just went straight back up. >> Yeah, it's happened before.

[56:58] right? >> Yeah, >> Yeah, >> that was that was a that was a crazy >> It dropped from from six down to four and then just immediately filled the gap

[57:12] over the next three months. >> Copper futures is a big future, too, it? >> Yeah, it's it's a big one. Yeah, stock. >> Yeah, this thing's a $160,000 product.

[57:27] >> You use what stock, Liz? >> COPX. It's a copper miner. >> I use a copper miner company. Um, it's something This is God, I feel like I'm confessing all my sins. This is some I always have copper. I like I said, I'm a

[57:39] metal person, so I always have copper, gold, silver in my IRA, so I use COPX as a proxy. Oh, >> okay. You don't use FCX. What about FCX? isn't it? >> Everything.

[57:51] which is good. And I've been in FCX before, but CCO is another one. Southern Copper Corporation. >> Used to trade both of those a lot. I used to really trade a lot of different metals. Like 0809, 2010, BHP was another

[58:07] one. Names are just coming back now. Like 08 092010. BHP was another one. BHP. >> Yeah, >> I tell you something. This stock used to be like 150 bucks. Used to move like a

[58:23] >> Do you know uh what I'm noticing right now, Mike, on your platform, this one something that people should keep an eye on. Under BHP, where the symbol is, it says hard to borrow. >> Mhm.

[58:37] >> Yeah. That means it that means it is hard for people to buy and sell that >> Call GS and get some locate. Liz, >> what' you say? So, call GS and get some locate. We used to do that a lot as a firm. [laughter]

[58:51] >> 30 seconds to the bell here. Uh, E- Minis are picking up a little bit of a bid here. Up 20. NASDAQ's chopping around. Um, what do you think? What What do we feel on the open? Do we think we're going to just rip higher or sell

[59:03] off from these this recent rally? >> Oh, today is not a sell-off day. In my I'm saying and I'm I'm making the bold call and I've got a 20% chance of being right because I looked at the Delta. I am going. We will touch the uh 6,500 or

[59:18] the the S&P that the big number that y >> 7600 >> 7600 today. >> It's moving out the gate. >> Micro strategy is back over 100. >> Really?

[59:32] >> What's going on? What's going on in these uh Bitcoin? >> I'm asking for a friend. I've got a lot of Bitcoin products. [laughter]

[59:46] around these lows. It's near the recent high of the recent trading range around 65K. Um but yeah, MSTR back over 100. Like Jamal said, I haven't traded this really all too much, but I do have this IBIT

[1:00:01] position. Uh I've got the 100 shares that I acquired at 65, but collected over three grand in premium last year. So my basis is at 35 there. trying to get another 100 shares at 35 to really just drop that basis down uh even more

[1:00:16] dramatically. But I have this Super Bowl setup. Sold a 35 put to buy two 45 calls in September. And uh >> Okay, come on. I got to We got to be another 100 shares the 35. You want to keep the premium.

[1:00:29] >> Yeah. [laughter] Yeah. I mean, yes, I would love to keep the premium, but if I take the shares, my basis at 65 drops to 50 and I still have already collected all that that value 3K. So, the nice thing if I take the shares, I can just

[1:00:44] start selling two calls against my 200 shares and keep piling on the credits. But, yeah, I mean, this was the the year-long trade of last year. So, yeah, I have $3,500 in premium collected all in all. So, we're we're still looking

[1:00:57] good. Even at these low low levels and IBI bit, I'm still below my break even is below the current price with a ton of upside possibility here, too. So, I I >> And Jamal, what date was it that you said we were going to become crypto

[1:01:10] two weeks ago. [laughter] >> What date that I said? Did I say that? >> Yeah, I said it's not too late. Yes. I said it's it's not too late. You can actually bullish. >> Yeah,

[1:01:24] >> Yeah. Uh Frankie says about 200,000 smooths have traded in the first minute here. By the way, he just put something in the chat about the game today. About I'm sorry, not game, excuse me, match. Yes. Uh on the pitch uh today, uh about

[1:01:37] poll. Who's going to be the winner? 55% so far say England. England and Argentina play today. Don't forget England has a 12th 12th person on the >> Why? >> Because they have FIFA on their side.

[1:01:51] [laughter] >> They have an extra person. >> It's just like any other sport. >> That's the rumor. It's the rumor. It's like couple games. But we'll see.

[1:02:04] ever see it? And like Messi will go and talk to It's like Jordan. He'll go and that happen? >> Yeah. [laughter] >> It's like uh at a Kansas City game when Taylor Swift's there. If anyone just

[1:02:17] the passing [laughter] right immediately. Roughing the passer. >> immediately. [laughter] >> So, so far it looks like uh I don't Every day we come in, we're trying to see what's what's moving, right? What's

[1:02:32] the push and pull? Is it the semis? Is it the the the uh consumer staples and and software? It's hard to tell right now, actually. Like semies aren't like down by and large. Um, >> no. There I mean honestly it's it

[1:02:44] mover on the board today, right? So some days you come in the story is oil. Some else. There's nothing there's nothing really moving too much today. seen this where >> this is this is like uh I I'm I'm

[1:02:59] hearing TP in my ear. This is uh if you look at the watch this NASDAQ 100, there's a little bit of red but a lot of green. >> is that your best TP impression? >> Yeah. [laughter] Yeah.

[1:03:12] for now. I got to hone it. But yeah, to the upside, we're seeing a lot more 2enters and and uh beyond. PayPal's up 14% on buyout news, but yeah, lots of twoenters, lots of close to 2enters, but then to the downside, your your biggest

[1:03:26] sell-off is SanDisk at 4%, but everything else is within 1%. Uh so you upside, some broad strength to the upside in the NASDAQ 100. If we pop over to the S&P 100, you've got UNH down a little bit, down 2%, 1%, only a handful

[1:03:42] of names over 1% to the downside. And then a lot of green, a lot of companies then a lot of green, a lot of companies over 2%, a lot of companies over 1%. So lifting this market higher as the E- Minis hit 30 up 30 for the first time

[1:03:57] >> So, and what do you think about this upcoming earnings season, you guys? Are do are you guys you know how sometimes it's everything is awesome, everything is cool when you're part of a team, the LEGO thing where everything is going to

[1:04:10] go up or do you think this is going to be a tale of two cities earning season? >> I think it's setting up for a rally. Uh and I think it's for a very similar volatility is down. The vault futures are in a steep contango here. the the N

[1:04:25] contracts just went below 17. But this is over a point of contango between the N and the Q and over a point of contango between the Q and the U. So the contango in the market is a sign for calm. Of course, you got the VIX creeping below

[1:04:40] uh below 16 and >> look at that. Yeah, I just think like because there's so much hype around these earnings announcements and these companies have to just destroy these numbers and basically say we're sold out

[1:04:55] until 2027 2028. I remember Nvidia one time Jensen Hong was he came to the mic and was like huffing and puffing. I got to get back. We're sold out. We're sold the narrative. I think that's what you got to hear if we're going to rip higher

[1:05:09] >> Yeah. I mean I think I think you're right. >> So um and were you guys doing something in UNH this morning? >> Uh we were looking at >> um you know the one thing I I want I I

[1:05:23] I think these companies are making a lot of money. I think the one thing we have to watch out for is the crowded nature of the trade. Um and if we could cue up of the trade. Um and if we could cue up uh the uh other chart uh that we were

[1:05:37] one thing that we have to just pay attention to the crowded nature of the trade. There's been a lot of retail activity in a lot of these tech stocks. Uh this is from our friends at the SIBO and this is just one of those things we

[1:05:49] led to some of the little bit of selloff we saw at uh in June and um that's the deltas in in some of these things. So, I might clean some of it up heading into just talking about this earlier, Meta, Microsoft, just to see how the reaction

[1:06:04] happens because I don't want to be too exposed to it. Um cuz I'm collecting a lot right now. Like my extrinsic is like quite a bit. But that's the one thing I >> Yeah. Well, there's nothing wrong with cleaning up right before earnings and

[1:06:17] afterwards. >> Indeed. Indeed. on the S&P. >> Wow. >> Big rally. >> Big rally. Uh yeah, crazy craziness

[1:06:31] here. If you put on a Super Bowl, you're looking good. Uh but a lot of this premium is it's we're still inside the expected move, but I think S&P uh the one day move here is only 21 points now. So they zapped a lot of

[1:06:46] the premium, so I think a lot of neutral traders are probably benefiting from this as well. Um but yeah, Liz, we appreciate your time. We will see you a >> Sounds good. Thanks, boys. >> Yeah, absolutely. Have a good day.

[1:06:59] >> We got the E- Minis up 32, NASDAQ up 100. We're going to take a quick 90 the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[1:10:22] E-in and Nasdaq selling off a tad here. E- mini only up 23. NASDAQ has been cut in half only up 55. We'll see what the rest of the market has for us today. Uh

[1:10:34] and we've got a special guest Mark Likenfeld on the line. Mark, how you >> I'm doing great. How you doing, guys? >> Fantastic. Fantastic. What are you looking at this fine morning? >> Well, uh, you know, a sector that I've

[1:10:48] been looking at for a few days now that really has me excited and it's something that I don't think a lot of people are talking about. It's it's not as sexy as semiconductors and AI, uh, but it's insurance. The insurance sector is doing

[1:11:02] really, really well right now. Not surprising considering that interest rates are going higher and insurance companies simply make more money when interest rates go higher. They take the money that you send them for premiums

[1:11:14] money that you send them for premiums and they invest it in in uh you know uh instruments and so higher interest rates simply mean they make more money. They don't pay out more money to you when you make a claim. It's not like

[1:11:27] your your, you know, $500,000 life insurance policy suddenly pays $550 if you have a claim or or your house burns down. You don't get more money, but they're making more money. And so, the sector is doing really really well. Uh,

[1:11:40] chart of the KIE, that's the insurance ETF, and it's been in a in a long base for about two years, spiked up in the last couple of weeks. And so just from a

[1:11:52] a fundamental and technical uh perspective, I think this sector has a lot further to run. >> Yeah, it's been in this channel like you said since I we'll call it November, October of 2024. It's been in this 55 to

[1:12:07] 60 range and we finally had this breakout above uh the current market. And yeah, it's it is an interesting thought like when you think about uh insurance companies, they operate very similar to Tasty Trade options traders.

[1:12:21] collecting that premium, you're assuming the risk, and you assume that over time your premiums collected offset that risk, but it's a nice kicker when you you're collecting a 4% interest rate on top of your your huge amounts of of

[1:12:35] capital that you've got on hand. >> Yeah, absolutely. And you know, speaking insurance companies do uh pay a dividend. Not all of them have a a know, there's a little something that you're receiving while you're holding

[1:12:49] these stocks if you're if you're holding the actual uh equities instead of options. Um but what I also like about the sector is it's just not being talked about. You know, it's very quietly rising. Uh flying very much under the

[1:13:02] radar. So, I think eventually uh it's going to get some notoriety just like some of the the big financials, the the giant banks are certainly getting attention, but I I really think this one

[1:13:16] and it's a place that you can still get in a little bit early before everyone >> It's not being talked about at all, unlike a sector that uh is being talked

[1:13:28] you talked about uh you and I talked about a couple of months ago when we had an interview was Oracle and that sector and are you still worried about debt in that whole sector as far as related to AI and the bond sales etc.?

[1:13:41] >> Yeah, absolutely. I mean the amount of debt that has been issued in the sector is uh is is really phenomenal. I mean, right now you've got, I think in the last last few months, uh, there have been about $25 billion in bonds issued

[1:13:58] been about $25 billion in bonds issued by Alphabet, um, 25 billion by Oracle. I mean, there is just a tremendous amount of debt being taken on by the sector. And you know, if you look back through history at some of the major crashes,

[1:14:13] you know, the dotcom boom wasn't really a debtfueled crash because a lot of those companies were just was just kind of garbage companies. But a lot of the the the real busts, you know, going back a century or more, the railroads, the

[1:14:27] autos, radio, uh these were giant bubbles just like we saw in in early 2000, the dotcoms and we're starting to see now. and they were th those bubbles that's what we're we're going to see now. Now, I'm not suggesting that

[1:14:43] Alphabet is about to go out of business anytime soon, but the amount of debt is really really concerning. The six hyperscalers have issued $244 billion in

[1:14:55] debt this year. Uh, and it it's, you know, I do think history is going to repeat itself at some point, whether that's, you know, I'm not calling for a even two years. I don't know what inning we're in, but this has a very very

[1:15:09] familiar pattern to past crashes. and and it it's really no surprise, you there and so companies are going to do what that what they feel is necessary to be the winners, but uh taking on massive amounts of debt usually does not pay

[1:15:26] >> I mean, this Mark Lickenfell is a nice guy. We talked in April. The stock is basically where it is now. It took off as you saw and now it's right back down. but he was really a nice guy about it. [laughter]

[1:15:38] interesting. I think we're kind of at this turning point where uh the banks have already reported earnings and uh or most of them I should say and that is always the indicator that we are on the precipice of a ton of other earnings

[1:15:53] companies are going to be announcing earnings and to your point I think uh if increasing debt we're increasing capbacks maybe that's a warning sign and if they report good numbers I mean a lot

[1:16:08] going to have record numbers as they as you would expect. We've been seeing that But >> yeah, I think uh to your point that this is one of those warning signs where if you are bearish or if you have a bearish

[1:16:23] lean in the future, this is clearly uh something to keep an eye on. necessarily bearish on all the hyperscalers and the whole sector. Oracle in particular I am because not only do they

[1:16:37] have massive amounts of debt uh but they are bleeding cash. Uh they they had 24 billion I believe in negative cash flow last year. Uh next year the

[1:16:49] estimate went from -24 billion to -45 billion. Uh but and the most important reason I'm so bearish on Oracle is besides for the massive amount of debt is their offbalance sheet obligations. So they have uh about uh $248 billion in

[1:17:06] offbalance sheet obligations in the form of leases for these data centers. Now they are backed by backlog from AI companies like OpenAI, particularly Open

[1:17:18] AAI, they're their largest customer by far. But what happens if Open AI can't pay their bill? And the CFO of OpenAI recently said that she is very concerned

[1:17:30] that revenue is not going to reach their target. So if suddenly Open AAI can't target. So if suddenly Open AAI can't pay their bill, Oracle has these lease legally obligated to pay. They're bleeding cash flow. They've got massive

[1:17:45] debt. They don't have the cash to cover it. Uh you know, they've really gone all in on AI. And I think this is going to end very very badly. I think we're in the very very early stages of this stock collapsing. From a technical

[1:17:57] perspective, uh it has now broken support. So I I think the next stop is is about $99 in the near term. Um but I I think this is a stock that for fundamental reasons could fall all the way down to let's say $20 because uh of

[1:18:10] their massive debt, their massively negative cash flow, which is not these off balance sheet obligations. If if OpenAI runs into any trouble, uh it's it's lights out for Oracle. >> I mean, I hear you, but I think Open AI

[1:18:24] they'll they'll find a way to get some type of financing. But, as we said, is of these names? I mean, again, we've got some great names that have come to sector per se, but like the SpaceX of the world. Obviously, we just had SKH

[1:18:39] that you're interested in at all, these tech names? Yeah, I mean, you know, this is this is not going to be uh the biggest surprise, gorilla, and when you look at their their valuation, it's really not that

[1:18:54] crazy. If they can hit their targets or Wall Street's targets, it's trading at about 16 times 2028 earnings. Uh that's really not uh not unreasonable at all as long as they can hit it. Uh and of any company that should succeed, I would

[1:19:11] assume it will be Nvidia. But I also, you know, Microsoft, Alphabet, these are also 800 pound gorillas. So, I'm really not sticking my neck out too far here. Um, but uh, so I think those are going to be the winners, but I do think you

[1:19:24] need to be really careful about some of the the companies like Oracle and any others that are just bleeding cash right now because the cash flow is really king. As long as you have the cash flow to service your debt, then that's fine.

[1:19:37] quite badly. >> Yeah, absolutely. phenomenal stuff. Uh, interesting things about this is everything is so intertwined like all each other in some way. Like you look at Nvidia and yes, Nvidia has a ton of

[1:19:53] capital, a huge cap uh market cap, but if you look at their deals, it's it's other companies. So, it's like that that I think could be one of those uh things these companies are intertwined. They're all failing now. And that's that could

[1:20:09] be the future catalyst for uh some kind of movement. But it's it's ominous because the markets are uh Nasdaq actually just ticked red. But the volatility futures are basically saying nothing to see here. Uh but we know that

[1:20:21] >> Right. >> And you bring up an excellent point because right now it's not a problem. If this all were to unwind kind of the way back and say, "Oh yeah, that was obvious. They were it had all these

[1:20:35] was going to end that way. I'm not saying it it will. Um but I think if it would look back and be like, "Oh, of course." >> Absolutely. Mark, appreciate your time. That was a great great segment. Uh and

[1:20:49] hopefully we'll see you again soon. >> Okay. Thanks very much for having me. >> Absolutely. Yeah. NASDAQ just ticked red, down 24 now. E- mini sliding a bit, down uh only up 11. We're seeing a little divergence there, but it feels

[1:21:02] like it might be one of those days where uh we slowly slide, chop around. Uh but yeah, inside move so far, but uh we're going to take a quick 90 second break. We'll catch you on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Lab.

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[1:23:43] Jamal. We got E on the line live from the SIBO floor. And E, it sounds like some things are flying around there. We're hearing some hearing some noise. hear it through the earpiece right here. No, a lot of movement today. Looks like

[1:23:59] hoping that S&P 500X and the S&P 500 is showing the sell off like NASDAQ is so far today. But no, I mean jokes aside, last Friday, I think we had an opening gap on NASDAQ at around or we closed last Friday at around 30,68.

[1:24:15] statistics guys out there, but we kind of filled that gap for the most part. downside momentum here today, but things are pretty volatile. Uh oil's in play, lot of names that we can be trading

[1:24:28] right now. Uh but yeah, uh a pretty crazy morning so far, >> that's for sure. Uh NASDAQ just ticked green. E- minis are up to being up 20 again. We're seeing some some quick ticks here in the futures market. We

[1:24:41] were up significantly more. E- minis were up 30. NASDAQ was up 100. Seems like we're sliding here. Uh I actually just filled got filled on a super bear. So started the morning with a super bull before the PPI report. Closed that. Now

[1:24:54] I'm got a Super Bear on. Um, and I actually just got filled on my Microsoft Super Bowl. That was a thousand dollar winner after two weeks. Um, so >> yeah, I don't know. Got to I'm I'm trying to take off some risk here uh as

[1:25:08] >> Mhm. >> Yeah. No, 100%. I know uh Microsoft that one uh Microsoft was running alongside uh Apple as well. I know Apple made another all-time high just a couple of days ago. Uh, so it's nice to see a

[1:25:22] some of those names. I'm I'm going to take advantage of selling a little bit more volatility whenever volatility can expand a little bit more here. It's nice we've seen a rally in the last couple of days. It's nice we've seen a rally the

[1:25:34] last couple of days. Uh, but would love to see a more expansion volatility, get more premium on uh to at least be able to manage more of these positions. Uh, up right here, it just looks like we're really funneling into that range right

[1:25:46] thoughts about that? It looks like that Um, and maybe we break either way. Another all-time high, maybe a little bit of a pullback. There's a couple different options that could happen.

[1:25:58] like that. It seems like uh we just been holding in the range. I This is just in my head, but I feel like sometimes once we get around earnings, we start to sort of decipher the earnings numbers and they're coming out, you know, as as the

[1:26:11] the week goes on. I feel like sometimes too by the end of that week it's like like either have a nice little move to the upside or downside. So I think we're But it does look like we're coiling for a potential breakout.

[1:26:25] smaller. >> Yeah. This 30K level uh it seems like we're just laser beam focused on this level. Uh and we'll see where we go from here. But what do you uh what do you make of this NASDAQ market?

[1:26:40] Um, no, it's it's been a really difficult market to trade. It's been patient here. Uh, like for example, some of the levels that we're trading at right now, some of the levels where we had most of the trading activity that

[1:26:52] we're trading right now on NASDAQ seems to be a pretty pivotal area because um, near the close near the close yesterday, we had tons of tons and tons of selling at around 29,810. So, does that mean the market is going to continue lower?

[1:27:10] continue lower? No, not really. But it does let us know. Um market participants levels. So whether the market's going to break up higher or break lower, we're going to find out. It's all going to be hindsight. Uh but in terms of volume and

[1:27:24] sellers find it to be a little bit more attractive, it seems like this is is one So we'll see what we get here in the next 30 minutes to an hour. >> Yeah, absolutely. I think uh there's some things if you look at the NASDAQ

[1:27:40] specifically uh in this watch list the NASDAQ 100 that are really ripping higher PayPal on buyout uh rumors but to the downside buyout uh rumors but to the downside you've got SanDisk WDCL

[1:27:54] shop Micron so we're seeing a little bit of a rotation out of hardware into software uh with Microsoft being up pretty significantly here up five points up almost 2%. Can you sort that alphabetically? Is TSM in that

[1:28:08] >> Yeah, >> No, >> it is not. Uh, >> I'm just curious. >> Wondering how much that's going to

[1:28:21] I >> mean, I'm sure it will anyway just because it is a tech name and it's TSM, but I'm just curious how much it would move the NASDAQ. >> Yeah, it's it's interesting though. E,

[1:28:33] we've got the E- Minis up 22, the NASDAQ's only up 17. >> Uh, wow. >> Typically, we see uh obviously NASDAQ higher than the E- Minis on a dollar basis, but NASDAQ's chopping around

[1:28:46] tick from red to green a handful of times. Uh, but I think the energy products may be propping up the E- Minis just a little bit more right now as uh the tech space kind of figures it out. >> No, 100%. And I know you guys are

[1:29:01] talking about we're seeing a little bit of that rotation. Um I know IBM had gapped down, you know, speaking about things similar to that. How is IBM doing today? >> Was up, still up a little bit.

[1:29:13] >> Sold off from the open just a tad, but yeah, still up two and a half points, >> Uh we have a call calendar spread in there at 250. >> So I'm going to be looking at rolling this thing. Yeah, let's let's see what

[1:29:27] we can get. So this option, the short option for the 2-day, I sold for.7 cents. It's trading for 10 cents now. It's worthless. So I want to roll this to the 9day and pick up some premium. If we go to the same exact strike, I can

[1:29:40] pick up two bucks here. If I route this for two bucks, let's see if I can get filled uh into a small rally from here. That'll that'll kick up this premium. >> How weird that is though, like you're So just so people understand trading, you

[1:29:52] just offered two bucks, right? For that. No. Oh, never mind. For the spread, I was going to say >> should be saying too often. >> Yeah. Yeah. Um but yeah, I think rolling from the 2-day to the 9day just reduces

[1:30:05] that basis even more. This is already a pretty cheap trade, but we'll we'll go from $6 to $4 in net debit in terms of the cost and we'll have a an earning shot here uh with a 20 point implied move from here. I really like the way

[1:30:19] that sets up because now we'll have the ability to capture all that $200 in the nine day and we'll have this inventory delta in August. There's your NASDAQ kicking green. >> Yeah, TSM is 3% 3 to 4% of the NASDAQ

[1:30:33] 100. It's 9 and a half% of SMH and 4 and a.5% of SOXX. So >> There you go. >> Ed, there you go. Got a lot of exciting >> Yeah. 100%. Uh thanks for your time. We'll catch you a little bit later

[1:30:48] today. But yeah, this 30,000 level, like you said, is going to be interesting. We bounced right off of it earlier this morning and uh couple days ago as well. So, we need to see above 30K if we uh

[1:31:02] want to get to 3166, which is with a recent high uh over the last couple months. But yeah, E- Minis are up 30 right now. We've got uh an interesting session here, it appears. Uh yeah, speaking of um I rolled my

[1:31:17] year-long trades yesterday. So the MNQ trade short the uh 31,000 straddle. I was short it in the July 31st expiration um after some uh well basically I had to

[1:31:30] lag it. It wouldn't let me do it as one trade. Um, so had to close out the July 31s and then sold the uh August 21s and then in MEES uh similar deal rolled that out to the August 31st expiration from the July 31st expiration. I'm short the

[1:31:45] the July 31st expiration. I'm short the 7700 straddle. Love it. Yeah. Uh lots of beauty of these trades. You have so much flexibility with the s the small size of those products. But yeah, we'll see what's going on with this market. NASDAQ

[1:32:00] chatting, but we're going to take a quick 90 second break. You're watching quick 90 second break. You're watching Tasty Live.

[1:32:20] approved FINRA's proposal to eliminate the pattern day trader rule, also known the pattern day trader rule, also known as the PDT rule. This is a big deal for many retail traders. For more than 20 years, the PDT rule has been a major

[1:32:33] roadblock for smaller accounts that wanted to actively trade stocks or options intraday. In other words, we call it day trading. Here's how it used call it day trading. Here's how it used to work. If you made four or more day

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[1:34:38] >> [music] >> There's a beast in the financial world and it's not the bull. If that's [music] you, join us on Tasty Trade. Genius loves company. [music]

[1:35:07] the show. We've got the E- Minis and NASDAQ trying to tick higher here. E- mini is up 30, NASDAQ up 60. We placed a lot of trades today, so we're going to run through those real quick. Uh if you want to check them out on the Taste

[1:35:19] Just click on this follow feed. You can isolate myself and Jamal date range from today or even from yesterday. You can see all the stuff we've done. >> But yeah, uh you want to walk through your stuff first and we can hop around.

[1:35:33] >> Yeah. Where are we starting with? Oh, so uh this was actually a pre-market trade as you can see by the time and uh it was a super bare trade. Wanted to get some short deltas against the portfolio here. I'm actually doing well with the market

[1:35:47] right here. Um so this is kind of one of those it was one of those situations just to offset that. If we have a day that ends up, you know, turning negative I know my portfolio is not going to be doing well. That would be one of the

[1:35:59] things that would be the few things that would be positive in the portfolio. So, trade. I'm fine. How am I managing it? Um, honestly, I'm just going to leave yesterday that ended up right in the middle and just was able to collect a

[1:36:12] $100 credit and moved on. And so, for this, I I'm um I'm fine leaving it. I'm this trade because I'm winning in other places. Trust me, it's fine. Uh UNH

[1:36:24] earnings play. So, look, the real idea here, I would love to sell a put in UNH, of earnings. I'm not a lover of selling ahead of earnings. Earnings is such a crapshoot. You can get a big move out of nowhere. So, I actually do want it to go

[1:36:37] These are fairly cheap as you can see. A $135$160 just about give you a point a penny of price improvement. But if it does go down, again, I'm only losing what I paid and I will be looking to sell a put.

[1:36:50] >> I like it. Yeah, I think I might join you in both of these just because the total debit here is less than $3. uh just slightly under that and you've got the ability to have a nice return on debit paid similar to the JP Morgan

[1:37:03] trade yesterday. It was almost the exact same setup just 10 points between the two call calendars and it landed right between them. Um so yeah of that and between them. Um so yeah of that and then um yeah today I got into an S&P

[1:37:18] then um yeah today I got into an S&P Super Bowl. This was before the uh PPI market ripped up to like where we are now. Closed it for $150 winner and then we saw the NASDAQ slide. So I was like, oh, if we are going to slide in the

[1:37:33] NASDAQ, maybe I threw maybe I throw on a super bare one day out though. So still plenty of time here. I'm at the 76 7610 7520 7510. That was a 30cent credit. So really just giving up all the credit to finance the cost of the debit spread.

[1:37:48] So, we'll see if that plays out. Uh, I closed as the Microsoft Super Bowl that I put on, I want to say a month ago, uh, the 320 340 put spread to finance the 400440 call spread. So, 40 point wide call spread. This is a $1,000 winner uh,

[1:38:03] into this rally from 360 to 390. So, these trades can really work out stock. As long as you get a little bit of a directional move, the call spread can really fill up here. And then uh IBM, I was just filled on that roll that

[1:38:18] I was talking about this morning. So I've got the 250 call in August. So I rolled from the 2-day to the 9-day just now for a $200 credit. So that brings my now for a $200 credit. So that brings my cost basis down from $600 to $400. And

[1:38:33] uh I now have this earnings calendar spread. So short the 9-day, which has the earning cycle, long August, which has a lot lower implied volatility. Uh, so we'll see what happens, but playing for a reversal here in a defined risk

[1:38:46] >> Beautiful. >> Love it. Love it. Love it. Uh, we have >> Time. >> Uh, soon we'll have Tim Knight on the line. But, uh, yeah, I think at the end of the day, we're going to see what he

[1:39:01] has to say about some of the bearish setups he's looking for. U, I wonder if funny? Everyone's paying attention to SpaceX and then all of a sudden you're >> we're not even think about." Yeah, I know. Same thing with SK nicks, right?

[1:39:14] >> it's done. It's whatever. But we're joking about that obviously, but if you see a big move in either direction, uh I think we'll see what happens here. But Mr. Tim Knight, got him on the line. How you doing this morning?

[1:39:31] >> Yeah, little little bit of computer confusion on my end, but we are ready to confusion on my end, but we are ready to roll now. Um so um yeah, you know what? start, let me just jump right into the symbols here. U got a few items wanted

[1:39:47] to thumb through. Um the first one was uh on the one hand um massively great news today for one stock, but uh it's just sort of undoing a huge amount of multi-year damage, which is PayPal. uh looks like they're getting some buyout

[1:40:02] interest from Stripe. And for the moment, it's a about a 16% pop on the day, but kind of when you look at the big picture in the midst of the greatest tech bull market in human history, PayPal's been beyond horrible. Um it it

[1:40:17] it got to about a tenth of its peak value. Uh so, uh probably a bargain basement price for the likes of Stripe out there. Um, so that's uh and Michael Bur's talking a lot about the company too. He he thinks it he thinks it'll go

[1:40:31] too. He he thinks it he thinks it'll go higher. Um, the wipeout yesterday was of anything right now. Very much an inside day. A lot of chatter about the 25% plus wipeout. There doesn't even seem to be agreement as to how historic

[1:40:44] it was. Some say it was the biggest drop of all time. Others say since 1961, some say since 1968. Suffice to say it was a really bad day for IBM. And I think they report um maybe next week. Um it's

[1:40:58] known in advance that you're not going to like the numbers you're about to see. Uh the other one, of course, that's got a lot of attention for obvious reasons a lot of attention for obvious reasons is SpaceX, which is stable now, which I

[1:41:10] faint praise. It's it's sort of lingering just above its 135 um IPO lingering just above its 135 um IPO price. And mo most of our listeners and viewers understand uh there is a distinction between the IPO price which

[1:41:25] is 135 which is kind of what the bankers get versus the public opening price get versus the public opening price around 150. Um so pretty much everyone's in the negative right now. And the the

[1:41:38] that uh there there's when you're when you're at lifetime lows, it's just a psychological game of just how much are folks willing to tolerate in terms of before they throw their arms up and say, "Forget it." Cuz psychologically,

[1:41:52] everyone knows that only guaranteed absolutely surefire support is the number zero. And the distance between whatever you're at and zero is is tests people's tolerance for financial pain. Um really crucial chart right now. I

[1:42:07] think and the the two they're obviously important at all times but the ENQ and the ES and we'll end them with the ES very important in very different worlds very important in very different worlds right now. Uh the NQ is bouncing between

[1:42:20] the screen support and the red resistance. And we've got this yellow uh 50 yard line if you will that we've been below for the past couple of weeks. And

[1:42:32] um I'm very short tech, very short semiconductors. And uh tip of the hat to the market gods. This is actually a really good day for me so far even with really good day for me so far even with green ES green ENQ green RTY because um

[1:42:45] the semiconductors are showing some real weakness for example just to thumb through these uh at a faster pace uh and these aren't all necessarily semis per se but they're definitely tech uh with a prepoundonderance of semis. So we've got

[1:42:59] credo technology and these are all open short positions for me. So this is down over 3% and shaping up to be the completion I think of a nice topping completion I think of a nice topping pattern. We've got Nokia doing its job

[1:43:11] working lower day by day. Another 3% plus uh drop there. Uh ST Micro Electronics down about 2% having broken that ascending trend line. And in the vast majority of the cases, if not all, they have broken that March 30 trend

[1:43:26] line, which like the diamonds has not bothered to draw to break and so forth. But most of these have snapped that uptrend. Um, AXTI down again 3 [clears throat] and a3%. And this pattern here, very simple pattern, very

[1:43:40] similar to what I was just showing with CRDO. The difference being CRDO is not quite complete yet. I think it's getting close. Uh Sienna CEN nice tumble there close. Uh Sienna CEN nice tumble there 4.44 44. Um, uh, numerologically very

[1:43:55] negative, but we've got a nice slip going on there. Working towards some going on there. Working towards some multi-month lows possibly. Lum li uh, down over 5%. Completed pattern here. Very pretty. We've got u this

[1:44:09] month's of um, distribution top. We've got our drop here, retrace looks like it counter trend rally. And now we're resuming the uh the weakness. Marll MRVL

[1:44:23] also completed a top. And interestingly, so I as I mentioned yesterday, I covered so I as I mentioned yesterday, I covered here based on the price gap close. It rallied. So I I reopened the trade. I've stuck with it since then. And now we're

[1:44:36] slipping down to new lows for this little cycle, well below that sealed little cycle, well below that sealed price gap. Uh Micron Mu down almost 5%. this trend line a little bit. That's not quite accurate. Um so in this case,

[1:44:53] yeah, no, it still has it has broken that. It's been teasing a little bit. Now we're cleanly below that that uptrend. A couple more examples here. STX, these are storage related Seagate technology down almost 6%. Another clean

[1:45:07] trend line break here. Just and just I'm tightening up the stops daytoday on these. Just tightening them up. And then WDC relatedly uh down almost um 7% same failed trend line and as I say I just got to emphasize it is a very green day

[1:45:23] in the market in general but to a man these guys are are all in the red and that's being broadly led of course and summed up with the likes of SMH which is kind of a core position for me January puts on this um red bar yesterday red

[1:45:38] day today that's all lovely but it won't really matter until and unless we can get below this low, this multi-month low uh of support. That's that would really get things rocking and rolling. And the

[1:45:51] last chart I wanted to share, which is kind of a um the doppelganger to INQ, uh kind of a um the doppelganger to INQ, uh is the ES. This is a risk for the bears,

[1:46:03] if I dare to use the plural. Um it [clears throat] is so close to a breakout. It has been trapped in this multi-month range. um [clears throat] pushing above that range would uh throw a lot of fuel on the bullish fire and

[1:46:16] we've got a very split market on our hands because this looks very solid for a rally and for a breakout and on the other hand I'm looking at a lot of red quotes right now. So it's a real tug-of-war like who's going to who's

[1:46:30] what we have very bullish looking in the likes of the ES but uh nice breakdowns going on with the tech stocks. Oh my god. I can't believe he just said those word. I I'm like I'm dumbfounded. He said bullish. He said rally. He said

[1:46:46] breakout. I think Koshi had a market of whether you would say one of those three words in this whole situ. I can't believe it. You said all three of them. >> Well, you it should it should strike terror into your bullish hearts.

[1:46:58] [laughter] It really should. >> These are the word. This is my elixir cuz it ain't [laughter] going to happen. So, I'm just just doing what I do. Good >> Yeah, it's funny. Uh, as you were chatting about the weakness in the

[1:47:13] NASDAQ and the strength in E- Minis, the E- Minis kind of held on to being up 30 today, but the NASDAQ actually ticked red. Uh, the NASDAQ went from up 30-ish to flat to red, and now we're seeing the same thing. It's been the story of today

[1:47:27] is the NASDAQ kind of underperforming relative to the E- Minis, which is not something you see every day. Well, I'm I'm deeply embedded here in the in the trenches of the Silicon Valley and and there's definitely a some

[1:47:39] sea change going on in terms of like is this AI hall thing going to work out trillions and trillions of dollars at risk and there's some warts appearing what we're witnessing because it is a

[1:47:52] with you, I'm actually super interested in that and what you're seeing locally reacting to the current environment. I'm I'm sure there's some tells. We'll do. >> Awesome.

[1:48:07] >> But uh No, and and but incidentally, we have a lot of fun here making videos and unrelated to this. There's another one we're working on for this week related to the elections and the market. So, I think people really enjoy that as well.

[1:48:20] >> It is a midterm year. Yeah, it's it's it's it's easy to get caught up in all there's usually some interesting stuff 100%. >> No, I I I I think you'll like it.

[1:48:33] Definitely some thoughts to share. Um but boy, we live in interesting times >> That is for sure. >> Well, thanks Tim. Appreciate you. We'll see you later today. >> Sounds good. Uh yeah, E- Minis and

[1:48:46] NASDAQ. E- mini is kind of just flat. I mean, the intraday range has been within 10 points over the last hour or so, but the NASDAQ has been a different story. If you look at the minute chart of the NASDAQ, you can see the selloff, the

[1:48:59] rally, the selloff, but the minute chart for the E- Minis is uh basically flat. for the E- Minis is uh basically flat. This is the last couple of uh minutes here. We've had a six-point range. So crazy crazy.

[1:49:11] with Marll. I'm sure putting Marll and it's actually starting to break down and it's actually starting to break down and it's uh it's it's kind of fallen almost it's in it's in it's almost completed the gap here. And um yeah, if it gets

[1:49:25] the gap here. And um yeah, if it gets below that uh what is the low here on on June 1st below 200, below 195, it could be serious problems. I'm short a put in here. I'm short the 220 put. So I'm not feeling that great about it. I'm trying

[1:49:37] to decide what I want to do. >> Yeah, it's uh it's sliding as we speak. NASDAQ is down 20 points now. Complete inverse uh tick from the E- Minis up 27. inverse uh tick from the E- Minis up 27. NASDAQ down 27. So yeah, uh I don't

[1:49:52] know. It feels like this is a a sell the rally kind of day, at least in an kind of an inside move type situation, but we'll see. It's been uh it's been a wild

[1:50:04] points. Microsoft's now up 11 and a half. That's crazy. >> Uh I guess I shouldn't have closed that that Super Bowl. >> We'll take it. We'll take it. Julia, we've got on the line uh and of course

[1:50:18] Julia, what do you think of these markets? markets? I was looking at J&J. It recovered. That was the one I was actually watching the most today because it's up like 75%

[1:50:30] since January of uh 2025. Yeah. And it took I think 11 years. I I tweeted about this yesterday. It took 11 years for them to grow that much prior to that. So, I saw a little bit of a correction after actually pretty strong earnings

[1:50:44] were just expecting them to like really smash expectations and they didn't. So, earnings, strong guidance, they opened down. Um, and it looks like we're actually recovering. So, I'm looking looking over at biotech

[1:50:57] >> Shoot, I totally forgot about this. >> Sweet. Sweet. >> Yeah, UNH. That's why I'm here. >> We were talking about UNH. They have earnings uh before the market opens tomorrow. So, ultimately, last time to

[1:51:10] trade it is today. Uh, and I actually want to follow Jamal's trades here. the want to follow Jamal's trades here. the uh 3 440 450 call calendars. I think this uh makes a lot of sense in terms of the just taking a shot the upside.

[1:51:25] >> Yeah, >> just taking a shot. Speaking of taking a what we're talking about today. [laughter] >> You want to take a guess? We're talking about long options.

[1:51:38] >> Yeah, right. I love it. Yeah. >> I'm not a long option hater. If you like to buy options, I'm not a hater. I like to go with the pops because I don't have money to just buy options all the time. But I wanted to look at on long options.

[1:51:51] when you're buying options versus selling options. So here you're kind of looking for pops in like volatility or you know like price volatility for kind of as quickly as possible. So I wanted to look at the numbers.

[1:52:05] >> Beautiful. >> Cool. So yeah, we tend to focus like the research tend focuses uh tends to focus there we go on short premium strategies of the money long option strategies tend to carry sub50 pops um and losses tend

[1:52:21] to sort of like average negative or P&Ls I should say tend to average negative in the long term. So I wanted to look at if you're trading uh you know like a long option strategy that's more volatile like than your typical you know 16 delta

[1:52:35] longerdated option. Here we're looking at 30 delta, 10 DTE, long spy strangles. would be if you were to add a small profit targets in the 10 to 40% range to to like capture the, you know, inherent, you know, P&L volatility we tend to

[1:52:50] observe in options and trying to, you know, basically capture small profits, long-term or I should say your average um expected, you know, trade performance? >> Love it. I have some thoughts, but I'll

[1:53:03] wait till the end. I'll save them to the thoughts. Okay, let's take a look. I like I like hearing the ending thoughts. Um, so looking at this study, uh, we're market conditions. Um, so we're looking at 2024 uh to present, basically January

[1:53:18] 2024 to present. And I wanted to pick a strategy that was already like pretty close to 50% um, probability of profit. So I looked at long 30 delta 10D spy strangles. Theoretical pop on that's around like 45%. So sub 50%. Um, but the

[1:53:32] idea again is like we're just trying to capture like pops in P&L and trying to get out and to accumulate small profits um sort of over time. So I'm going to be looking at basically uh 10 20% 30% and 40% profit targets to see how that

[1:53:46] affects like our overall trade statistics. And then for winning trades, those profits came from. So did they come from the call side? Did they come neither, which we're kind of attributing

[1:53:58] where the underlying price is at expiration or management basically to estimate that. Make sense? >> Yeah. You're getting long 30 delta what kind of big move happens and whether that uh whether the put or the

[1:54:13] call makes money. >> Yep. Exactly. And so, and this is an note um for a lot of these studies because we're basically we're not looking except in the zero DTE studies, we're not really looking at a lot of

[1:54:25] intraday activity. we're looking at like one data point every day at 2:45 p.m. So these a lot of these numbers are basically minimums that could be boosted not accounting for here. So that's just a little like research caveat that I

[1:54:39] wanted to kind of say. Um but when we looked at the results uh I found them actually to be pretty interesting. So looking again you know short time frame 2024 to present uh when we look at these 10 20 and 30 and 40% profit targets we

[1:54:51] can see that it actually for the small profit targets of 10 to 20% that boosts your pop from the theoretical 45% to between 58 and 65%. So pops get boosted. Um, average P&Ls are like kind of the highest for the small profit targets.

[1:55:07] is kind of like your snapshot of your typical trade experience, taking kind of the tails out of it, you can see that like those median P&Ls actually peak around 20% and then proceed to drop off. And when you have the higher profit

[1:55:20] targets of 40%, that's when your kind of statistics across the board really start to become much less favorable. But those small profit targets, we're seeing a especially when it comes to probability of profit and when it comes to median

[1:55:33] P&L. >> Yeah, this is not surprising to me. I kind of actually I guess I don't have to ask the question or say what I want to there's a time and a place for long options and especially longer term long

[1:55:46] options. And if [clears throat] you're managing them at a small percentage of your debit paid, your pop is not going to be low probability. It's going to be we're seeing here. You just have to realize that if you're holding these

[1:55:59] get a huge chunk of it, you're going to have way more risk and your probability is going to significantly drop off. >> Yeah, exactly. And that's kind of that's exactly what we're seeing here where those low profit targets um like a lot

[1:56:12] longerdated strategies for short premium strategies where you know you're putting up capital in those trades sometimes an undefined you know loss potentially estimate what those are most likely going to be but you want to collect

[1:56:26] enough to compensate for that tail risk as unlikely as it might be. the strategy the long slide side which is that you're trying to just kind of take small gains over time and cap you know before the theta decay really kicks in and that's

[1:56:39] why that 10 to 20% at least in the specific back test was kind of that sweet spot and then this is what I found especially interesting which is that basically where the profits came from for these neutral strategies is that

[1:56:53] call side and the put side. I really thought the calls were going to dominate over the last 2 years, but it was pretty evenly split. And the other, you know, we found here, I guess isn't that surprising, is that when you have very

[1:57:07] small profit targets, that's when you're the most likely to profit just from IV. basically when there was no strike breach on either side and just the IV was kind of enough to sort of like get that 10% like that small profit target.

[1:57:21] target, those are the ones that tend to benefit the most from those like IV to the larger profit targets of like 20 30%. Um, that's when kind of your strike breaches and your directional movements really start to benefit. But those were

[1:57:36] split between calls and puts which I found very interesting. like we I was seeing that in the crude oil markets where directionally I I should have been making money but with my short straddle but I was losing money

[1:57:50] because of the IV increase but it wasn't that much. It was a small chunk. So yeah, you're not going to see the massive IV increases without a directional move in something like SPY or SPX. So it makes makes total sense.

[1:58:03] >> Yeah. And then that story might change a bit as we kind of go further from out of expected move, that's kind of when I would expect like your puts to really come from the puts, but your more frequent profits to really come from the

[1:58:16] calls. But just looking at these already, you know, kind of like high pop baseline long premium strategies. It's pretty evenly split. Um, and then yeah, really when you start to kind of be more likely to capture fluctuations from IV

[1:58:31] versus like there were no, you know, 40% profit target occurrences that profited from IV in this, you know, kind of restricted study. Make sense? >> Yeah. >> Cool. So, when we're looking at 10DT30

[1:58:43] delta spy strangles over this period of time, these are normally sub50, you know, strategies. Theoretically, uh, they have a 45% theoretical pop. um but exiting at small profit targets of 10 to 20% actually boosted that realized pop

[1:58:56] up to 58 to 65%. So we saw more favorable probabilities of profits and then median P&Ls for these strategies peaked at around a 20% profit target and then fell sharply kind of beyond that point. When you got to a 40% profit

[1:59:09] target that's when kind of the statistics across the board became much less favorable. Um, but what was interesting that I especially found here is that the call and the put side were basically even in terms of how often

[1:59:22] they contributed to those profitable trades and then trades with smaller profit targets were more likely to benefit from sort of fluctuations in IV um compared to higher profit targets. >> And then the other thing too just uh

[1:59:35] if this were individual names you would expect a whole lot more variance in >> Oh yeah. And then you know especially if it's around earnings especially if it's you know all these other you know all these other corporate events um kind of

[1:59:49] why we use spy and it's also a little bit longer dated than you would cons you know consider using uh for this type of strategy and the reason we did that was just because of how we modeled these back tests. If you had a 5D strategy if

[2:00:03] we're taking one data point per day that doesn't leave that's where kind of the intraday variability would sort of like skew the results. Um, so here we're looking at 10DTE, but that might even be a little bit longterm uh for someone

[2:00:16] who's kind of buying options. So, little caveat there. >> Yeah. And I think, uh, you know, we there again, there's a time and a place for long options. You get what you pay for with long options. The further out

[2:00:29] in time you go, the more time value you're buying, the less IV value that can, you know, work against you in that same sense. And I think for me, like if I'm just straight up buying calls without any kind of cost basis

[2:00:41] reduction, it's going to be in price extreme scenarios. Like we have leaps in Nike, like he's at 12-ear lows, and it's a $500 debit for it to go up a a third of where it's fallen from, and we can double or triple our money there. But

[2:00:55] also, if you see the S&P's down 20%, 30%. We know the data says if you look at that point in time 6 months out, one year out, three years out, the percentage that we're higher from that level is in the '9s, high 90 percentile.

[2:01:09] and then you pair it with an asymmetric trade like that and you plan to take it off with a 10 to 20 30% profit, you're going to have a high probability trade. If you hold it to expiration, that might be a different story because you lose

[2:01:23] it's all about that, you know, manipulating the liabilities against you it. >> Right? Long options are just another tool in your toolbox. But the idea around kind of strategic and sustainable

[2:01:38] trading is really like sizing positions and overall exposures according to the expected outcomes of the trade, the probabilities of profit of the trade. Um, and then you know just kind of like your sense of market conditions

[2:01:50] statistics at the end of the day are really meant to be driving a lot of that sort of broad strate strategic decision- making I guess I should say >> 100%. Uh what if what have you been trading these days? Uh are you are you

[2:02:05] looking for more long-term? I know you mentioned Johnson and Johnson. I like looking at biotech stocks because they or biotech healthcare stocks especially like these days they've been kind of like having like very noticeable

[2:02:19] watch but I'm not trading a lot of those names right now. I'm kind of holding which I just wanted a little bit of exposure to those quantum computing names. This one's been letting me down though. Um and then yeah honestly a lot

[2:02:34] we've been seeing in the market. So now I'm trying to just kind of stay I don't know levelheaded about it. But like we've been kind of flat since June in the S&P

[2:02:46] NASDAQ looking over here >> pretty flat. >> Yeah, I know. So I've been my neutral strategies. I love I hate making wrong I feel most of the time. >> Um so I Yep. The neutral strategies

[2:03:00] well which it looks like it's having a bit bit of a chop today. Yeah, it is. >> But this is another one that's been kind of a little tending towards the downside, but kind of honestly sideways

[2:03:13] Yeah. >> Yeah. It's been somewhere between 4,000 and 4,200. And um I'm trying to play that range. I'm I wanted it dropped below 4,000 yesterday, two days ago. I I did not buy it. I should have, but I was

[2:03:30] current frontmonth contract. U anyway, I'm not going to bore you with my spread. I'm still waiting for it to drop back down so I can buy the um the not the Q contract, but the uh U contract probably for

[2:03:46] >> right? Probably >> yeah, like those futures options options. No, I was like trading the ETFs, but I liked the futures options have a random 50 point day and then it would

[2:04:01] >> contract they >> Yeah, the V contract is uh two weeks from now we'll switch we'll swap over from the Q to the V. >> They just skip right over you. Interesting. Gold is so different, bro.

[2:04:14] futures markets. >> They really do. organization of the Chase platform. You can see where all these options expirations roll up into the 4069 last price, which is the Q contract as listed

[2:04:28] here. And then uh 14 days from now, July 29th, we will swap over to the V contract. You'll see a new last price. And now all of these subsequent options expirations roll up into the V contract. So perfect organization. If you're

[2:04:41] trading futures options, you can see exactly which which contract the futures options roll up to. Uh and that applies to all the futures that we have here. basically kind of done like a uh cattle call. Is that what you call it? I don't

[2:04:54] the people to reach out to you, uh the ideas. How's that been going? Like I know people always have really all of us, but you guys are getting flooded, I'm sure, now with all kind of

[2:05:07] want to see. Is there any >> I mean, this study today was inspired by a YouTube comment. So some it was the probability of turnaround piece. I was like, "You should test that for long strategies." and I'm like this was my

[2:05:20] kind of adaptation of that. Um I I will say that like I think that the most the most is actually on Twitter. So I'm finance photon over on Twitter, but We've been posting more articles like whenever we have like a study, we'll

[2:05:35] post like a long form article. So that's a great place to like ask questions as well, suggest other ideas. But you know, I've been doing this for a long time. So >> You're a former physics person. And you want to explain to the people where that

[2:05:47] name finance photon came from? >> Finance a physics. Yeah. No, I did uh photonics in undergrad and in grad school. So I got to work in the dark for eight hours a day, but a photon a photon is a nice little corpuscule of light.

[2:06:00] And so I thought finance and photon would be a fun play on that. hours a day. It seems like it fits right in for what she wears on a day-to-day That's >> I've never seen the sun. So,

[2:06:15] >> hey, it's it is it's it's just, you know, the way of life, right? >> I actually like this shirt. I have five of these shirts now. >> You know what? I almost wore a white t-shirt and I [laughter] was like, we're

[2:06:27] >> Let's try it. And it would have been it would have been awesome. >> Uh Julia, appreciate your time as always. Good to see you guys. And yeah, finance photon, reach out to to Julia on Twitter if you have any ideas for

[2:06:42] segments and uh anything under the sun. But yeah, E- Minis up 17, NASDAQ down 170. A massive divergence here. This is one of the bigger ones that I remember

[2:06:55] course, and this is why, you know, correlation is not perfect, but uh we've Dr. Jim, how you doing this morning? I almost wore my Boston Red Sox t-shirt. too much. I can't [laughter] I can't put him through this.

[2:07:10] team in baseball, man. I've been telling y'all from the very beginning. I never lost hope. I never lost hope. Hottest team in baseball. The second half starts uh is it tomorrow or is it Friday? >> Uh Thursday might be tomorrow. No, I

[2:07:23] >> I believe is it Friday? Oh, okay. It is Friday. I thought it was tomorrow with >> Look at Ben coming up clutch. It's Friday. Yeah. Okay. So, uh yeah. So, we know, we'll see if we can keep it going there, Mike. You know, it's our Boston

[2:07:36] Red Sox now. Like, we welcome you aboard with open arms. >> Hey, we'll take it. Do we Do Are there any uh of our Boston Red Sox in the home >> Well, no, it already happened. Yeah. Wilson Contrus almost happened on

[2:07:49] >> I know. I know. It happened kind of. It was on Netflix. It's funny. I was were complaining about that, but um Yeah, happened the other day. I don't >> That's wild. >> I know. Wilson Gatus was in it.

[2:08:02] know what? I keep forgetting he's on Boston. almost won it. I mean, I'm seeing him with the Red. I keep [clears throat] forgot he's with Boston, though. >> No, man. He's with our Boston Red Sox.

[2:08:16] >> He almost won it. What do you mean? He wasn't one of the last two people. You Come on, Jim. [laughter] >> No, I think he was. Wasn't it him and >> No, no, it was Schwarber and the uh the dude from uh the St. Louis, Jordan

[2:08:29] right. That's right. [laughter] >> Nice try, though. Nice try. little bit pushing, right? >> This is the beauty of fans. we get [laughter] them. Like, we can't wait for the market to turn around. I

[2:08:42] Those winners when they come. >> I still love Wilson from the Cubs days. I I do. >> Yeah. He started with the Cubs. >> I knew that. >> All good things come from the Cubs, I

[2:08:56] guess. Right. [laughter] >> Yeah. Kind of like your uh Yeah. your Carrie Woods, you know, your Mark uh Mark Prior, right? There you go. Yeah. Going way back. >> Way back. All right, guys. Let's do it.

[2:09:08] Ben, ceue us up here on the title slide. Gentlemen, do you want to talk about this morning? So, I thought this would be a perfect continuation off of what we talked about yesterday, talking about short puts and the greatness of the

[2:09:21] you can do with the short put with short Vega positive theta. We talked about strangles. We talked about other things and we kind of alluded to ratio spreads. kind of dive into ratio spreads for just a couple of minutes and kind of

[2:09:35] highlight just how dynamic the delta is with these strategies. Now, when it comes to a ratio spread, Mike, I've heard you say this before. They're omnidirectional in their nature. So, please explain to

[2:09:49] everybody what that means. >> Oh, man. Uh so omnidirectional just means you can make money in a myriad of different ways. If you route a ratio if all options expire worthless. You can make money on a rally, but your max

[2:10:04] profit is actually if that spread moves in the money. So I think the uh the trouble is if you are asking the question like what what is this a bullish strategy? Like is this does this have positive delta? Does it mean it's a

[2:10:19] bullish strategy? I kind of am am in the camp of if you have a put ratio spread. It's more of a bearish strategy than a bullish strategy. Uh but that also front, right? Like you can make a you can have a put ratio that's narrow where

[2:10:34] you're collecting a bigger credit or a put ratio that's wider where you're case the latter is much more of a bearish trade than the bullish counterpart. But yeah, I I like to plead the fifth on this question. uh because

[2:10:48] [laughter] it depends on who you ask. Some people say, "Oh, it's a positive even though the max profits to the downside and a put ratio in this example. So, what do you think? >> Yeah. You know, I mean, I mean, I really

[2:11:02] think that you nailed it. I really think that in terms of kind of outlining what yourself into, you know, the thing about the ratio spread, right? Cuz it's and gotchas. The flexibility and the versatility with the ratio spread is

[2:11:16] second to none. It is unmatched because you can make money in a myriad of ways. money if it goes nowhere. You can make money lower. You can make more money if it goes lower. And then obviously your risk is to kind of that extreme downside

[2:11:28] or if it gets beyond that short put strike. And so the flexibility is unmatched. But that flexibility comes with a level of complexity that you really have to make sure that you know what you've gotten yourself into. You

[2:11:40] know what you've signed up for. and you have the skills and abilities necessary to adjust that guy when it's time to adjust that guy in terms of, you know, closer to expiration. I mean, there's a number of things that are happening. And

[2:11:52] so, I don't really like when I put on a ratio spread, a put ratio spread specifically. I probably think about it more from a bullish sense. I probably think about it more as a bullish strategy, but there are other times. I

[2:12:05] mean, it's like 5545, right, Mike? I know you're a you're you're a poker guy. I mean, this is pocket twos against ace king offsuit, right? It's basically 5248. It's not really, you know, a big difference. But when I think about the

[2:12:18] bullishness, I mean, that's how I go into it at trade entry. But sometimes I might use a ratio spread as a hedge. Like I might use this as a downside hedge. Like I'm using that extra put to kind of finance the whole operation, but

[2:12:30] some booby traps down below where the fall down there, I actually end up in a good spot. I love that you said booby traps. That's all I heard. [laughter]

[2:12:47] think it's uh it is certainly pocket twos against ace king offsuit. Uh 50/50 split, but yeah, I think it's uh it depends on the setup, right? Like this is one in SPX. This is a a bearish setup. I would say you're you're

[2:13:00] collecting 500 bucks, which is still great. You have neutral and upside look at your downside max profit. It's 15K if you get the selloff. So, you want a selloff here. However, if you slide this up and you make this more narrow,

[2:13:13] like I was saying earlier, now all of a sudden, uh, you've got way more credit received up front. Your max profit isn't nearly as much. It's cut in half to the downside. Your break even improvement to the downside is not nearly as much. So,

[2:13:26] yeah, this is more neutral to bullish. So, yeah, I think it depends on the setup and the use case for sure. But the beauty of these strategies is regardless sell off, you can make a lot of money on this on this hedge here. Uh it's

[2:13:41] you're financing completely by selling an extra put. So if you can think about it that way, if that uh rings the light bulb for you, but yeah, if you get the downside move, you have a way lower cost basis. You could uh manipulate and

[2:13:55] manage this, which which I'm sure we'll talk about in a second here. But another butterfly. If you get a rally from here, 100 point rally in the e- minis, you can probably buy the equidistant leg. And as long as you're doing that for less than

[2:14:08] free shot to the downside. And there's your there's your actual full hedge with no no monetary risk. Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. So if we think about delta points I want to hit on this morning in addition to all the bonus points we've

[2:14:24] already hit on in the first four or five minutes. So number one, the dynamic profitability, in terms of the different adjustments you can make, that's second to none. But just from a delta change over time standpoint, it's a very unique

[2:14:38] strategy because if you do a put ratio spread a 1x two, again, it depends on how big the profit potential is going to be, but generally speaking, your net position delta on entry will be positive. So that will be a bullish

[2:14:51] position at least temporarily. But here's what's crazy. If time goes by and nothing else changes. So the classic cedaris parabus assumption all other things may equal which we know is never ever ever true. But it does help us to

[2:15:05] understand one specific variable and how that might be impacting what I'm looking at. When time goes by the delta alone is going to slowly shift to become more and more bearish. And the reason why is because as time goes by, those shortput

[2:15:22] deltas, they're not going to dominate as much as they were at the beginning of the strategy. At a certain point, it flips over and the long put deltas actually dominate the strategy now, making it a bearish play. And so this

[2:15:35] kind of, you know, it's one of those situations where, you know, we're both right. in the beginning, you know, you can definitely classify this as a bullish strategy. But if nothing else changes and you actually flip your

[2:15:48] directional bias completely, which is the case here, you have to take that into account on entry, you have to understand that at some point this is very likely going to become a bearish strategy. And what am I going to do? How

[2:16:01] am I going to handle that? Obviously, you know, is that what I want? I mean with a 1 by2 ratio spread often times it is but you need to understand what you're kind of walking into because this is how the the position delta is going

[2:16:13] to change just from the passage of time >> 100%. And as everything does it all that's another way to look at it. If you set up a put ratio at the money where

[2:16:25] the money and you're selling two out of the money to finance it over time. If we show this visually with the analysis tab. Uh over time, this is the theorograph where you like Jim's saying, you got this bullish lean, but over time

[2:16:40] short puts. You gain, you gain, you gain. Your long put holds on to value and that's where you get this uh fill up where now all of a sudden you want the to be reflected in your delta. Your long option is going to be basically 50 delta

[2:16:55] the whole time this is on. But these options that are out of the money, out zero delta first because they will lose their exttrinsic value first. And that's how this shifts from a bullish slightly bullish trade to a certainly bearish

[2:17:09] market. >> Mhm. That's exactly right. That's 100% right. And just to let you guys know, so tomorrow the segment I'm going to do, going to skip right to the end. The segment I'm going to do tomorrow is

[2:17:22] exttrinsic value. Hey, >> so that is going to be the title that we we're just going to go off of that title slide and just wax poetic because we answer. >> There it is. Okay, so let's go to the

[2:17:36] let's talk a little bit about, you know, when you set up a ratio spread. ways you could do it. You can set it up with a classic 1x two. That's obviously go a 1x3 if you want to lean more bullish and you want to hold on to those

[2:17:51] bullish deltas longer into the actual position over its life. A 1x3 could work. A 2x5 could work. There's a number of ways that you slice this up, moving from the 1x two standard. Uh or you could go 2x3. You could go 2x3. You

[2:18:05] could go 3x5 if you actually want to kind of overload the downside to actually give you more profit potential if the movement is lower. whether it's a hedge or whether it's just a kind of a standard trade, how you set up the ratio

[2:18:18] spread in terms of the balance or unbalanced nature of the longs versus puts, that's just another level, another layer, a second derivative of flexibility, if you will, when it comes to a ratio spread. It really is

[2:18:32] >> Yeah, I agree. And I like the idea of of even just in a simple 1 by two, I think understanding your break evens and learning how to calculate that. Just That's that's really a great thing to do.

[2:18:46] >> Yeah. >> All right, let's get him. Go ahead, >> I said they give me the gimme gotcha. If you sell an extra put and you do a 1x3, you have way more upside max profit because you're selling another put, but

[2:18:59] your break even will be uh it'll move up because now you have three two extra short puts that are not hedged by your long put that you're buying. often times when people do do a ratio spread, they're doing it for the wider

[2:19:14] it relative to like just a standalone short put, which I think a lot of put or do I want to maybe ratio this guy off? Understand that the ratio spread is but it's almost always going to give you a wider break even than a standalone

[2:19:29] short put. But if you do start layering up on those extra puts to improve the bullish scenario, you are foregoing some of that break even point with Yep. All right, let's get him a few takeaways and we'll get them on to the

[2:19:42] next piece. So, short premium strategies possess unique characteristics that cannot be found with simple stock or mutual funds. Case in point, how the directional bias of a strategy can flip from being bullish to being bearish

[2:19:55] simply from the passage of time, a phenomenon that is easily illustrated phenomenon that is easily illustrated with the put ratio spread. Perfect. Couldn't have said it better myself. And yeah, use the analysis tab

[2:20:08] if you haven't already. I mean, it's a an easy way to visualize everything and you can pass time, you can change applied volatility and uh give yourself applied volatility and uh give yourself that uh full holistic view. But Dr. Jim,

[2:20:21] >> Great stuff >> as always. And I'm very much looking everything. >> I know, right? They all compound. I love it. I love it. >> Yeah. Uh NASDAQ continues to slide here.

[2:20:33] because you got the E- Minis, the Dow, the Russell, Bitcoin, Ethereum, bunch of currencies. Everything on the screen is green except for the NASDAQ. Uh, and crude oil is actually just ticked red a little bit here. Natty Gas on the other

[2:20:48] side is is green a little bit. So, yeah, kind of an an interesting day. Like I where literally when you look at the CME futures watch list in the default sorting where you've got E- Minis, NASDAQ, Dow, Russell, everything's green

[2:21:02] except for the NASDAQ. >> Yeah, it is. It's um what that's uh a.7 almost8% difference um between the two. We I don't know the last time we've seen that divergence. And it's not like there was

[2:21:16] um that I can recall. I mean we do so many things I halfway forget but it's not like we had some big you know um discuss uh sort of news before the open down. It's just mostly what I'm seeing is it's Micron. It's AMD by the way. I

[2:21:30] just put on some uh call call butterflies in Micron and in SanDisk. We're going to try that game again uh for Friday. But [snorts] it's um it is some select tech that's down. And as a result, it's almost like as a result of

[2:21:45] those being down, we got the rotation effect in effect. Microsoft is up. Um we got uh you know, some of the uh consumer defensive names that are positive. I I've actually been in here. I mean, I got a bunch of things going on. So,

[2:22:00] out Target. Um, so we'll get to that in a little bit of different trades that I've done, but it's a little bit of interesting bifurcation here. channel. We're going to uh pop over there and and get your questions

[2:22:12] answered over the next 8 minutes or so while we're still on and we'll walk on today. So, we'll see you on the other side of the break.

[2:22:33] going. I make $4.97 every second that I work. And if I don't going to go crazy. >> Okay. >> It's a cute dress. Where'd you get it? >> Oh, thank you. H&M.

[2:22:45] >> That's pretty good. >> Probably not worth more than $4. No, things. Everything has value. >> Well, not everything has value. >> I am pretty sure I can name a couple of things that don't have value.

[2:22:57] >> Okay. U caution. >> Five cents. feebleness. >> I have a toughy for you. >> All right. >> Me and you? >> Yeah. Did we have a price?

[2:23:10] >> Two cents. We should have [snorts] sold >> Yeah. We could have made a lot of money on that one. Oops. street. >> Exactly. I think that's more on you than

[2:23:26] it is on me. Lord knows I'm trying. Hey, you know everywhere. Take you for instance. Look at you. You're a young buck. What are you like 37? >> I'm [laughter] joking. How old are you?

[2:23:39] >> With your genetic makeup, you know, you're not putting on too much weight. I eggs of yours and make quite a profit online. But I wouldn't wait too long. Next month, those would go down big time. Especially if they keep eating the

[2:23:53] way you're eating. >> I got to take off. H. Time is money. >> Yeah. Hey, look. Can you get the check on this? I left my wallet in the car. I don't like to carry around bulky things. It slows me down.

[2:24:07] around bulky things. It slows me down. [bell]

[2:24:23] the show. We got about 5 minutes left here. We'll do a rapid fire uh review of what we've done today. It's been a busy morning. Uh as you can see on the Tasty bunch of these trades already. Did some S&P zero day trades, one day trades,

[2:24:37] quick in and quick out. Uh Jamal got some UNH call calendar spreads. I followed him into these. These are exactly the same ones. 450 and 440 long the 9-day short the 2-day. Just reducing basis and taking some upside shots here

[2:24:51] with UNH trading about 20 30 points lower. Uh, but you also put on some new >> I did. I um I looked at these the other day doing some call calendars. I did some of these a couple of weeks ago. Um trying to pull this trade off again.

[2:25:05] was literally just at 1,800. I think it was yesterday morning maybe. Who knows? We'll see what happens. Uh similar deal with uh with uh Micron at a,000. So,

[2:25:17] there. But um and then there was another one I think I haven't posted yet. just remembering to do a target [snorts] uh call call uh diagonal that I had on. Closed that for a $500 gain. That was a nice little play. Again, that was one

[2:25:30] that I put on because I have so much tech and I've been seeing that rotation. So, I got long deltas in there. Um and so the days where tech has mostly semis, I should say, has been down, we've seen those names have been up and so this

[2:25:42] trade worked out. It's time to go. >> Yeah, that's a great one. And yeah, that >> Yeah, that's a great one. And yeah, that was a long September 125 call short the 145 in August. Uh 20 points wide. So those wide ones can really fill up,

[2:25:54] especially in Target. If Target has had pretty low implied volatility, which I if you're trying to do these debit trades. Like Target has had a crazy rally and sell-off, too. like from uh a

[2:26:09] year ago we were trading at 150 dropped all the way sub 100 and then uh late last year sitting at 80 and even this year like just a couple months ago we're sitting at 120 110 and now we're at 140.

[2:26:22] So this these rallies that we've seen don't really aren't really reflected in this low implied volatility uh I would say. So that leans us towards those September, short August. Uh, and that one is a great one.

[2:26:35] >> And because it's long se August, I actually could have held it more, but this is a big move here. I mean, I bought it for, again, we always look to the the strikes. I got it for even less than that. I mean, $700 and change. $500

[2:26:49] if you're interested in that type of trade, I just noticed this. It's funny. trade, I just noticed this. It's funny. Somebody's tweeted about TJX, which is mean this is also in the similar space. And look, I looked at Target. I saw the

[2:27:03] to do it. TJX is in that similar spot. I mean, that's one where you could do right now the SE August. You could buy the SE 150 and sell the August 165 and pay $6.33. I mean, that's less than half the width of the strikes. So, those are

[2:27:19] this. I'm going to buy >> 625. I just got price proof. So >> route that route that lower >> probably because the short option has a somewhat wide bass spread, but >> yeah, I mean that's that's another

[2:27:33] >> There you go. Yeah, these are these are the nice trades you can find. I mean, of course, there's still plenty of risk in these, but low IV plus price extreme. Uh you have a lot of opportunity there, especially with a wide diagonal spread.

[2:27:46] especially with a wide diagonal spread. That one was uh a 15 point wide diagonal like you got less than, you know, you got you got a lot of time there. And again, it's $15 wide spread. We just got for less than half of that width.

[2:27:58] >> Yeah, those are the setups I think that that have a lot of upside profit potential. Uh, and you can do these to the downside, too, if you're bearish. >> really intelligent way to go about it just because you know that these single

[2:28:11] name equities can move around like crazy. Uh, and you still have a really strong return on capital here, especially relative to short premium. Uh, short premium is of course a higher probability trade, but if I sell the 145

[2:28:24] probability trade, but if I sell the 145 put uh, and I'm kind of iffy on TJX, like I can replace that profit potential with that diagonal spread. Like that diagonal spread will make more than $300 if you get a 10-point rally in TJX where

[2:28:36] this will be a $200 winner. So, uh, yeah, it's just all all in the eye of the beholder depending on what you want to do. But like Jamal, I prefer to be defined risk, especially with some of these products going into earnings. Uh,

[2:28:49] and the lower the implied volatility is, the the more defined risk I would I >> But yeah, Jamal, it's been a crazy morning. Uh, we've got all of our trades posted here on the Tasty Follow page. If you want to reach out to us on Twitter,

[2:29:01] I'm at Trader Mikey B. Jamal is at Jamal Chandler. Uh, and yeah, let us know what throughout the day, posting these trades to the follow page. Join us on the Throw in your trade ideas, questions along the righthand side chat. But, uh,

[2:29:15] Liz and Chris? >> I think we should. It's time to do it. >> See you soon. We'll take a quick 90 second break. Liz and Chris will be on second break. Liz and Chris will be on the other side of it.

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[2:33:34] She's Liz, Dear King. I'm Chris Veio. Liz, how are you? >> You know what? It's It's a It's a beautiful day in Chicago. It's 175 [laughter] We're We're in the heat wave. Are you in

[2:33:47] >> We are. I woke up this morning and it was already 81 degrees at 6:45, which is usually not my cup of tea. >> No. Will Will Frell, my dog, this big does not like to be in the sun. He does not like it at all.

[2:34:03] >> That's a funny dog name. Uh do you guys you guys have the wildfire smoke now, >> Yeah. Feels like someone's painted. Everything is orange outside. >> It's not too It's not too bad here. But I will tell you, it's not like anybody's

[2:34:16] Actually, I shouldn't say that. I'm in my pool or in the air conditioning. So, >> who knows? [laughter] >> I guess that's a fair distinction. Uh yeah. No, we my neighbor's house is white and so I look outside. It's like,

[2:34:28] Oh, no. It's just the >> That's just the sunlight. >> It's one of those days. >> You know, you and I were uh were talking some trades yesterday on the show. Uh I think you may have handled ASML a little

[2:34:40] >> Out on the open. >> Out on the open. Good for you. I'm still in it. It's uh down a tick. We're short put spread here just below 1700 on the strike. Um ASML had their earnings last night and it had an 8% pop earlier. So

[2:34:54] kudos to you, Liz, for moving quickly on that. Um, as for me, I'm sitting out at like 2 days to expiration cycle. So I wanted to see if this thing could run a little bit more. Um, to that point though, my short strike 1680 is still

[2:35:06] below that 50-day moving average. So nothing to change here today, even if it's come off a bit. But hey, it worked at least short term. So hopefully you >> The short term it did work. But it's it's hard it's harder to take those off

[2:35:18] >> Yes. >> So you have duration on your side. You don't need it to go you don't you don't have it doesn't have to go up but it Chris I like these setups. So, you were saying this was on your list and then I

[2:35:30] me if I'm wrong that Caterpillar was also on your list of the um below and above your thresholds. >> Yes. Yeah, it it it is. But trade on this morning here. It should be up on the follow page, but we are

[2:35:43] starting to creek below our low from uh July 7th, which is putting us below our end up closing down here today, I'm probably just going to lift those not liking the structure then. >> Um, not to say that that to say like we

[2:35:57] look back in March, we spent some time bouncing around the 50. So maybe if tomorrow's a green day, >> reconsider, but still sitting out 37 odd days, plenty of time to go. Just disappointed how it's worked out so far.

[2:36:09] setup? I like I mean I like this. I like when people I like macroeconomists who into and and then I put what I want to around it. yesterday hit that threshold and it's up at new highs today, but TSM that was

[2:36:23] slipping a little bit here through the session. Um I'm in at the 37 days seems to be the place I like right now 400 390. Uh you know, you're collecting 345

[2:36:35] >> Does that does that sway you at all with the earnings on deck? from the space. Uh maybe it's going to be another one of those we pop and then drop, right? So perhaps if we do get a little bit of a rally, I may want to be

[2:36:49] >> get out of the position. Yeah, they'll be a little bit more nimble here. Maybe that means I pull forward my expiration cycle as well. But I I I like some of we're seeing here across the board where the broadly speaking, the market is, you

[2:37:02] know, just having a having a regular day. Distribution is uh the name of the >> I like it. So I just jumped in on TSM with you for tomorrow morning because I'm a short termer. I'm I'm a I'm a short-term trader. I just sold the uh

[2:37:15] 405400 put spread. >> You know, I couldn't get filled on it looking buying dips in UNH as well, seeing if we could get a little bit more the one month and we were still sitting above the 50. Uh we were talking on the

[2:37:28] something more to get a strike down below like 390, 380. Right now, obviously, it's a little too wide. Um you're not getting enough credit. $212 for a $10 wide strike. uh it could work, but I prefer to get a little bit of a

[2:37:43] also on the radar for me right now. But the healthc care stocks, they haven't at all. They've certainly had a little bit of a better, you know, effort mean, everybody's got there is no right or wrong answer here, Chris, but I like

[2:37:58] behind other traders. No, you've got you looked at UNH and you looked at TSM, but in both of those, you were in the 37day. How come you don't go shorter term ball collapse you get immediate? >> Yeah. No, that's that's fair. I

[2:38:12] about >> Okay, that's fair enough. You want to excited this morning with the PPI? Did this make you as happy as the CPI? important. IA certainly thinks it's more important. And and maybe there's a point

[2:38:26] know, are going to be ruthless about protecting their margins. And so, if up, they're probably going to pass them along to consumers. the fact that we just got a negative month- over-month reading in PPI. Uh, yeah, we can talk

[2:38:39] core was still half of what was expected at 0.2%. 0.2% annualized is a 2.2% year-over-year run rate. That is not something the Fed needs to hike into.

[2:38:51] data says or my interpretation. The market's giving you is collective wisdom. Rate cut odds or rather rate hike odds have collapsed the past two sessions. We were at like a 60% chance of two hikes this year. We're now 0%

[2:39:06] actually starting to fade a little bit. We're at an 88% chance of one. >> So the pricing has really shifted in the past 24 hours around this inflation data, right? Definite one, 60% chance of two, now 0% chance of two and only an

[2:39:20] 88% chance of one. That's a that's not something you can ignore. >> I just love I I'm just fascinated by the fact that you're just you're looking at what you did. You woke up this morning and looked at what the percentage chance

[2:39:33] [laughter] you? >> Can I tell you the secret? Because they move in 25 basis point intervals. Every 0.01 on the y- axis is a 4%. So >> Oh, [laughter] >> I am I can multiply three times four

[2:39:48] >> Listen, I was told there'd be no math today, so that's [laughter] some of the tickers that have traders attentions today. I uh have a little

[2:40:00] tool that I like to use uh to scan the social media websites, figuring if should be looking at it as well. I know it's a really crazy concept. IBM has Wall Street Bets today. >> Do you have anything in IBM right now?

[2:40:16] >> I don't um but there was a study that I saw yesterday. I'm going to pull that up here while you give your little shtick on on IBM, but I didn't want to catch of traders are trying to >> I guilty is charged. I did it yesterday.

[2:40:29] I jumped I jumped head first into the IBM waters yesterday. Um just because So out with something saying, "I'm just going to let you know our earnings are couple weeks. I think they're in two weeks." No, but I I don't know. I just

[2:40:42] whenever a company comes out and says this, I I think that their their everybody everybody is expecting bad, so I mean, this was a big move down for IBM, so I see why people are keeping an

[2:40:54] eye on it. But I I loved the down move and I actually used the down move to put something on that is kind of into earnings as well. So I did uh like a an upside ratio spread using the earnings as the one that I'm buying.

[2:41:08] came across. It comes from uh this group Alphhatica. Uh quote, we ran a volume spike study event on IBM after today's 25% decline. 119 volume spike events over the past 5 years each day where volume exceeded twice the average.

[2:41:23] Here's what happens next. Yesterday's print in IBM was 8.3 times the normal bucket. That's five times volume tier has only been occurred or only been reached 11 times over the past 5 years. The forward returns from that bucket are

[2:41:37] 1 week out minus 1.55% 10 days out minus 1.68%. So when IBM historically has traded at extreme volume, the selling does not exhaust in one day. It tends to tells a slightly different story though across all 56 downv volume events. The

[2:41:53] 5-day forward return is plus 0.38 with a 50% win rate and at 10 days it's 05% with a 55% win rate. So I say all that because yes it feels like you're catching a falling knife. It was down 25% and yes the selling continues but if

[2:42:07] history is any guide here the selling doesn't get more aggressive here henceforth. You know you're maybe looking at 2% on this from 220 you're bucks. I mean maybe there is actually a reason to start bottom fishing right

[2:42:20] not the start of something bigger. >> Well, and my my general rule for myself, than me with actual numbers, is I usually like to sit on my hands for 3 days after a massive move. But this was too this was too good. Like I couldn't

[2:42:33] much, I have to wait 3 days before I can jump in. I did not. I jumped in yesterday only because of the way only because of the reason why it went down. talking their book. They're saying earnings is going to be bad. Earnings is

[2:42:46] in three weeks. I think it's going to be I think it's going to go up on earnings. a really bad set of data, wouldn't have been released on a Friday afternoon >> Yep. Right. >> We talked about that today, too.

[2:42:59] >> Maybe they're just uh playing the referees here a little bit, of. Okay. Uh >> but I mean, the stock market is a game, right? Like they're the the people this this company is playing a game. They

[2:43:13] it's going to be bad. This was not a bad move on their part. No, you have to massage. Uh yeah, you have to you have to play the referees, right? And so if themselves, if the numbers are better than what came out, the stock gets back

[2:43:26] management's probably going to be thrilled with that after the recent >> That's the that's the game that management's playing here, trying to it is one of the incentive structures. So

[2:43:39] too? And I know we got to get to the slides, but is it today? It is today. trending ticker on Wall Street Bets. >> Good to know. Good to know. I like I already in. >> Right. You got to play where people are

[2:43:53] people are trading that, there's probably liquidity there for you to get nothing. One of the reasons why we look. Hey, we have confirm and send coming up here. As always, you can send your questions to researchtastylive.com.

[2:44:05] researchtastylive.com or put them in the chat, which I suppose is a good reminder. Put questions in the chat. Like and subscribe for more videos. Uh Liz, let's get into this uh first confirm and send here. Uh

[2:44:19] >> this is for you. I know it. If I can see CPI and PBI in the first, [laughter] >> if there are acronyms that are not stock tickers, it's probably for me. >> Okay. CPI and PPI both came in cool and July hike odds collapsed from 42 to 17

[2:44:33] in two days. IV usually deflates when a macro overhang clears. Did the opportunity to sell that elevated premium already pass or is it is it there is there still juice left before the next catalyst? What is the next by

[2:44:46] >> Okay. >> So this is the reporting week which means one 2 3 August 7th we get the next non-farm payrolls report. >> Um between now and then it's really just earnings are going to be the big

[2:44:59] catalyst. Uh I suppose then you could actually talk about the Fed meeting. You important catalyst these days, right? >> Sure. Uh the next Fed meeting is in 14 days, two weeks from today on July 29th. So that's probably the next big one.

[2:45:12] one of the catalysts that we were going to lose between now and then is the uh the Federal Reserve's ability to talk to us. So we're going into the Fed's communication blackout window shortly in just a few days time, the week leading

[2:45:24] Saturday, the 18th, they shut up until the 29th. Um so when you talk about like what catalysts are there for this related we'll call it rate hike risk market I don't see many that are coming up quite frankly and then if you take a

[2:45:39] here there has been a collapse in volatility uh IVRs in ZN for example they're back into the teens they've been cut in half so you know am I trading

[2:45:52] bonds or notes right now on the basis of uh a repricing of premium around data like CP CPI and PPI. No, that does not seem to be in the cards. What I am doing though is that because there's been a collapse in volatility, uh TP got me

[2:46:06] into this long at the money put spread, which considering how weak inflation was relative to expectations and the fact that these rate cut odds have come down, I'm more than happy to continue leaning short here uh 112 111 even if the profit

[2:46:20] is coming in a little bit here today. And part of that is we listen, how many the Fed doesn't cut rates and then the yield curve steepens me, and then the yield curve steepens. Why? Looser monetary policy for longer.

[2:46:32] So, I'm happy to lean short a little bit uh delta here right now in notes and related to premium or volatility. >> But do not let TP corrupt you. >> He's corrupted me. >> Do [laughter] not I've worked with TP

[2:46:46] >> He's like, Chris, why are you even looking beyond one DTE? It sounds very much like a very much like >> I just my brain just doesn't I would love I would love to be that kind of

[2:46:59] >> No, >> we're all evolving. >> Yeah. I don't know if it's evolving or not or or going backwards in time because it is a very instant grat. It is might be it might be unevolving because

[2:47:11] we're more instant gratification like the teenagers when you go to the zero >> Yeah, that's that's true. The attention span is so bad. Okay, go to the next question. Netflix reports after the close tomorrow. Uh down 40% over the

[2:47:26] past year and coming off of a 29% price hike. If you wanted to position before before the close tomorrow or wait? And what structure actually makes sense on a name with this big of a move priced in? I see 130% raw IV here with a 94 IVR.

[2:47:43] >> Okay, I'm just going to answer the part of their question first. So, it depends planning on an IV collapse, you're going to want to wait until as close to the close tomorrow as possible. So, if they report after the close tomorrow, you you

[2:47:55] trades on would be during last call, which I know you're on. So, if you're directional bias, the best time to place the earnings trade would be the eve of minutes before. Because if you're neutral and you're playing for an IV

[2:48:09] yourselves the best footing. That's the time where you will truly be neutral. If you put on a neutral strategy right now for the earnings report tomorrow, you choice. So, I just want to put that out there. Um, and then the IV collapse is,

[2:48:23] mean, I would just be selling strangle in it. It's only a $74 product. >> It's only Yes, there's only a $74 product. Uh, I'm curious with this high volatility, maybe there's a chance that it pops. Would you do something like a

[2:48:38] call butterfly around strikes that have significant open interest? I'm looking at at the $80 call here. There's 400 and uh 41,000 a little over 41,000 contracts to do something like this to take advantage of the high volatility in case

[2:48:52] >> You absolutely could. I mean, butterflies and calendars, butterflies, calendars, and diagonals all have a kind of a similar setup. Sometimes I prefer a diagonal over a butterfly only because you still have the extra time on your

[2:49:05] butterfly, what do you want? You want it to go 280 and land right there, right? open up at the end and that will pay you. So if you did the 80 calendar, so bought it in like the [clears throat] 10day, you're going to pay less and it's

[2:49:18] it, not through it. They're they they have a very very very um uh like strong butterfly. I like the I like the calendar. They're that's a non-commitment trade. You're paying 15 cents for the shot of making 200 bucks.

[2:49:34] >> Two versus the nine day. So you're short the uh 80 call at two and long the 80 call at You're pay you're going to pay 31 cents. But the only reason I I will Chris they are the same trade. So do I like your butterfly idea? Yes. Because a

[2:49:48] both want the same thing. You want it to might do something like this because then I've got I've got a shot in my knowing that I've got nine days. If Netflix if Netflix rises like a phoenix

[2:50:02] potential. >> I hear you. I like my call butterfly. same. It's the same trade and I like it. So, I'm putting a gold gold star on your uh Netflix butterfly. >> Well, there we go. So, uh long the 78

[2:50:16] and 82, short the 80 two short the 80 here. Uh two times short the 80 here to get our butterfly in place. Risking 13 bucks for a potential max profit of 187. this thing pops, who knows if it's going to pop. I am more than risk willing to

[2:50:30] to pop. I am more than risk willing to risk $13 for more than a 10x upside if again the strike selection is what's important to me here. If this market where there's going to be a lot of open interest and a lot of trading volume.

[2:50:44] interest right there, but it's also the expected move for the cycle. So, you're bucks. >> We'll see what happens. Hey, let's go on to the next uh confirm and send different than maybe the question was

[2:50:57] conclusion. All right. >> Uh I keep hearing that the whole edge in the direction. But if the stock moves more than the expected move, the crush does not save me. True. Is there a structure that isolates the IV crush

[2:51:10] move? >> Defined risk. Iron counter. I mean that that will that will limit your risk from a massive move. Do you define your risk? the IV crush. You go to the expected move. You can sell as wide or as narrow

[2:51:24] of an iron condor as you want. That will still participate in the IV crush. Now, big, but you won't lose nearly as much as if it were, you know, a two standard move. Defined risk is the only way to protect yourself,

[2:51:37] platform uh 2DTE and uh Netflix right now, uh you'd be going around the 81 82 or the 6667. So, I'm going $2 wide here just for the sake of this because I have right now. It is basically a 2 to1 risking two to make one at a 65%

[2:51:54] There is a way to play this. You're not here. But it's it's a better setup than I've seen in some names recently. Like this the other day, it was risking like four to make one.

[2:52:06] So, [laughter] um this this is a you know generating >> This this allows you to participate in I'm not advocating this for you, Chris, but if somebody wanted to, they can

[2:52:20] much or as little risk as they want. They can take more profit potential by wanted to. it will still protect you from a black swan event. So, if it's a only are going to lose what whatever like the $300 that your max loss is

[2:52:34] here. So, you can make you can you can make it retrofit into your risk risk. But I I agree with you, Chris. Sometimes it doesn't set up. You have I used to say on the show, there's a common sense slide. I'm not going to do

[2:52:46] [laughter] >> Yeah. Sometimes it has to, you know, the >> Yeah. Uh Liz, we got one more question and then we can go back to these markets which are they showing signs of rebound here a little bit.

[2:53:01] >> No, NASDAQ is almost down a percent here. Uh and S&P back to flat on the >> and oil's down. >> I mean, try to get me really worked up about stocks when crypto [laughter] is up and oil's down and rate high gods are

[2:53:15] down and yields are down. I mean, [laughter] >> 572,000 contracts traded today. Liz, I we were complaining all week long about >> Yeah, >> people are just not trading right now.

[2:53:27] Uh, one more question here though. When I put on an iron condor, I always wings. Too tight and the risk award is bad, too wide, and I'm trying I'm tying method for setting winid or is it just personal preference? I mean,

[2:53:39] the width of the strikes. I think you start at a third of the width of the strikes and adjust from there. That's kind of where I've always that's an old what we were taught because that is the pro the inverse probability of a trade.

[2:53:52] So I'll start at the third meaning. So if you know you got $2 if you've got $2 wide Chris that 60 cents makes perfect sense. You know 60 and then go from there. If you can make it wider if you can make it wider and feel comfortable

[2:54:06] with the risk great. But I will say play with either making it wider. Say you wanted to take more risk. Sometimes you don't want to do the multiple. Like I'd rather do a one lot of a wider than a two lot of a narrower.

[2:54:19] >> Absolutely. Yeah, I'm absolutely with you. I It depends, right? Wing width to me is going to be contingent upon how violently the market's moving. Um how much compensation you're going to get and then right the the payout. So here

[2:54:31] your $2. You mentioned 61 cents. Yeah, it's not 67 cents. So it's not a perfect ballpark. It's in the ballpark. >> So yeah, I consider if it was like 40 move on. But it's a personal preference. >> And and you got to see too. So sometimes

[2:54:44] sometimes you have to bring it in so tight to get a third of the width of the expected move. And then I'm just like, h, that doesn't make any sense either. around the expected move or about the third of the width of the strikes.

[2:54:57] from there. >> I'm with you. No difference here. And so Let's go back to these markets real quick. 7600 here on ES. Uh I saw a question earlier. Am I still holding my MEES position that I top ticked?

[2:55:11] [laughter] Yes, I am. Um, we got in that on July 6th and we have really just done nothing right now. Not a great looking candlestick up here as it were. But the uh new position that I just put on uh because I've been incentivized by my

[2:55:24] not doing more double bulls? Get into the Super Bowl, baby. Amazon is what I days. It just seems to be the price is right. Um why is that? Because this is a

[2:55:36] resistance and when we broke out and fell back into it, it became support. Boing. What are we doing here? Uh, I see shoulder, head, right shoulder, that's a bottoming pattern. So, 225 up to 250,

[2:55:51] $25 range, $25 expected move, looking for expansion up to 275. Back to the highs, please and thank you. So, >> let me Super Bowl. So, you're in 37 days. Okay. >> Short the 230, 235, long the 285, 290

[2:56:03] >> Did you get it for a credit? >> Um, how much did this cost? 38 cents. trade. That's the one thing I want to make sure sometimes when you can set

[2:56:15] those up in 37 days, it could be a debit and that's fine. I mean, just like your butterfly, you're willing to whis risk $14 on a butterfly for the chance of pop trade with those Super Bowls if you if you're getting a credit for them.

[2:56:28] >> No, you're 37day trader, Chris. I like this. I like that you're sticking your guns. You're sticking with the sticking with the the farther out in time. I just these single stocks when I'm looking out at some of these strikes here and the

[2:56:42] open interest, right? 230 235, not a lot of volume, not a lot of open interest. But the 37day, that's the monthly. And so that's where all the action is right longer, right? So there's they always have to have two consecutive months. And

[2:56:55] been around for a lot longer than the weeklys. >> Yes. So we have our book set here right now. Uh some caterpillars, some I mean just uh where where are we at right for the day? Uh so many things in the book.

[2:57:07] the day? Uh so many things in the book. Google, IBIT, McDonald's still TSM, little bit. Same thing for Amazon. But I, you know, low volatility, low trading is looking like it's less likely to hike. This is all just window dressing

[2:57:23] as far as I'm concerned for the stuff that's down. Uh and so we continue to being. >> I think so too. So in looking at this place. When I was on with Jamal and Mike, the VIX was dipping a toe. It was

[2:57:36] about to dip into the 15 handle. Now it's at 1616. So the VIX is right there. recent highs. What do you think the rest of the day is going to bring, Chris? >> You think we're going to sit here? >> I think that we're probably just going

[2:57:49] market doesn't want to get away from 7,600 and MEES. Um, what do the zero GTE look like for short iron condor position and S&P? So, I was going to say I keep an eye on the volume in the S&P and the number one on the board was 7,600 all

[2:58:03] about it. 7,600 had had a 10 delta earlier. It's a little bit higher. So, board and it just got taken over in the call side by the by the 75 7580. So, now the 7580 is the highest contract on the board. And I do feel like there's a

[2:58:18] quite a bit to those numbers where like about IBM when the traders are trading it when it is the hot topic it kind of sellers in in both of that in that area. Then

[2:58:31] >> this is a tape that's probably going to be sensitive to uh any tweets or any of the day just because there's really no catalyst here. >> Henceforth I'm not loving this short iron condor setup right now here in S&P.

[2:58:45] width of the strikes. It's five points wide. So 115. Uh I don't think so. Not for me. I have enough going on here, Liz, today. Maybe other other folks are interested in that. But you and I are done here now,

[2:58:57] 30 minutes with you every single morning. Uh confirm and send as always. researchtastylive.com. Or you can put them in the chat on YouTube where you Make sure that you do that if you have not. We're taking a brief break here

[2:59:10] though on Tasty Live. When we come back, we're live from the SIBO bus and Errol we're live from the SIBO bus and Errol here on the show.

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[3:02:10] again at the SIBO right now as we're seeing a pretty massive divergence in tour of market, talk about some position management, let us know what you're trading. Before we get into it, brother Gus, how we doing today? How we feeling?

[3:02:23] great point to open on. You want a market that's that's hard to make sense of. Uh we we got one today. I don't know what's going on either. And I'll tell you what, it's even weirder because as I actually look at my portfolio, I have

[3:02:35] major NASDAQ names like Meta at the top of that list at the top of my portfolio performing today. NASDAQ is down as a whole. It's diverging from the S&P 500. Yeah, we have a really interesting set of things to unpack here.

[3:02:48] >> Yeah, we really do. Uh, and again, uh, I mean, seeing the divergence, it's it's Again, I know earlier this morning with Mike and Jamal, I was pointing out how They give me a little bit of of a funny look because I quote the market in

[3:03:03] market's up like 15 handles right now." I'm like, "Oh, wow. There is a pretty mean, I don't know if that's sector rotation. I I mean, I don't I really our positions accordingly and uh we'll go from there.

[3:03:16] this morning when I was on with Mike and Jamal this morning I I [laughter] highlighted that uh you know ASML had a nice earnings report jumped up 3% on the open. It was pulling all the chip names up right behind it. PayPal flew up 19%

[3:03:29] and they got a buyout offer from Stripe. >> Also more on that later but I was about to say what yeah PayPal got a buyout offer from Stripe jumps up 19%. So you know two NASDAQ names leading the headlines for today with growth and then

[3:03:41] aggregate. It's a it's a very interesting day. quick tour to market. Uh let's see where volatility is at right now. Let's see see, I have the micro NASDAQ pulled up on the screen. We're down about 144

[3:03:55] points, give or take, down overall on the day so far today. It's interesting, overnight. You can kind of see this rally all the way to the highs of near 30,000. And then to see such an aggressive sell-off, um I I guess I

[3:04:08] been comfortable and have been used to being in such a volatile market. Uh but with that being said, if we go over here to the S&P 500, you can see that we're up 14 handles on the day. Um and NASDAQ is down. So again, one of the more

[3:04:22] larger divergences I think we've seen over the recent times. Um and then this was another one that was a little bit difficult to digest this morning because whenever you see NASDAQ down 150

[3:04:34] points, 160 points, we're rallying a little bit off the lows. You would bit more. Uh but volatility is actually down a little bit on the day. So, we'll see. We'll we'll see what that means for the broader market and uh go from there.

[3:04:47] >> Uh it was really loud this morning as well. I I got a little bit of a jump scare and my shoulders went up went up for a quick second, but uh in terms of the portfolio, not doing too much today. Uh we're down about 46 bucks 46 bucks on

[3:04:59] bit, if we have some extra time, we'll go into the entries and exits and what we were looking at. Um we had a little bit of a shakeup this morning, so we recoup some of that and we're looking like this is how we're going to end the

[3:05:13] day so far. And then SpaceX being disappointing like it's kind of been over the last couple weeks here. Again, if we look at the chart on SpaceX, uh we made a lower low from yesterday's low. Uh and things aren't looking too hot. Up

[3:05:25] about 15 cents on the day, uh just a fraction of a percent and uh trading getting closer to that uh >> uh that 135 other day, too. So, we'll see how the market responds to that. But with that

[3:05:38] in the portfolio. Uh what's going to be top of mind for you so far today? >> Yeah, SpaceX, yeah, such an interesting one. Low of the day today, 13531. So, yeah, perfectly uh continuing to test that that that uh original original IPO

[3:05:50] public at the original, you know, ADR moves going on there. What's going on to everybody in chat? David A, good to see right behind us on the right. I'm gonna keep my professionalism up and not turn

[3:06:03] can uh bring him on sometime. >> It's a good thing I didn't read that comment. [laughter] >> Have to whip your head around. Uh yeah, top of mind for me today, um Meta King in my portfolio at the moment. Good day,

[3:06:16] up two and a half% adding to the confusion of the NASDAQ being down as a whole. Uh but Meta continuing to to make some nice legs upward on a good growth Meta, it could give it all back tomorrow or we could be back at 750 tomorrow. Who

[3:06:28] knows with with this company. um takes these big old moves up and down. talking about that meta sell off just a few weeks ago and it's crazy to see that all that and the momentum continues to the upside. So, to your point, I mean,

[3:06:43] even up double from where we're at right now. We'll we'll take a look at it entries, the thing that's most interesting to me today is PayPal. Uh I mentioned, you know, PayPal earlier. Uh it's PPL. Yeah. Yeah. Um I I I mentioned

[3:06:55] earlier they got a buyout offer from uh it's a combined offer from Stripe and then also a PE firm called Advent. Uh I'll tell you I had never heard of this see these private equity names thrown around all the time. I I figured some

[3:07:08] company and buy some companies do some hostel takeovers. Um so you know I made Stripe Advent trying to acquire PayPal and as I got off the train and was like Yeah. Advent they have like the Advent PE they have offices like right

[3:07:22] >> so you know whenever you uh find a a red car you see a little bit more red cars. >> Yes. It's just I was I was aware of it. So as I was walking I was kind of you know looking around it it caught my eye. But uh yeah so Advent real close here.

[3:07:36] Hope hope they can get it. Hope the hope the Chicago company can land PayPal I guess. Um but yeah honestly though this move Advent the $53 billion offer prices in $60.50 a share for PayPal. So, should this deal go through, we're actually not

[3:07:50] see a a adjustment, you know, even higher up towards that 60 level. But I'm tempted to get short here, I must say, because as you may recall, PayPal has this year from GameStop. Now, that was a much less I don't want to say much less

[3:08:05] legitimate, but much less enticing offer, I would say, considering that for $55 billion with $40 billion in cash, and no one knew where the other 15 understand PayPal being a little bit apprehensive to that. But my point is

[3:08:18] there is some basis for PayPal denying to be bought right now. So should PayPal buyout offer, I think we would see shares sink right back to at least 50, if not all the way back to the pre-jump levels here of like mid 47. So uh a

[3:08:32] short opportunity is tempting to me here, but time horizon is is very tough to determine with with these deals as we see with Paramount that that the saga continues to drag on. I saw that now there's uh 12 state legis

[3:08:46] legislators that are trying to block the Paramount from acquiring Warner Brothers Paramount from acquiring Warner Brothers now. So there there's this legal band of >> Do you think there's any level of like

[3:08:58] >> interference not not not from like a government standpoint but like uh I I business because we see certain acquisitions go through that would of other potential acquisitions that

[3:09:10] know what I mean? [laughter] >> Yeah, it is. It is interesting. >> I find it strange that the legislators are pushing back on this Paramount acquisition because Larry Ellison I mean has so much money. I I have no doubt he

[3:09:26] does lots of lobbying to get political favors. Uh so really just bad If you're if you're a billionaire and and you don't have at least one pocket, you're a bad billionaire. [laughter] You got

[3:09:38] heard in quite actually. That's >> Yeah. How are you a billionaire and you That can't happen. If you've seen House of Cards, bit of truth. >> Yeah, seriously. Use this money.

[3:09:52] corrupt for you, Larry? You're corrupt. Just make make them corrupt with you. on that Paramount acquisition. Circling back to PayPal. Whole point is these time. So, if I wanted to make a short PayPal trade in the hopes that this

[3:10:07] acquisition doesn't go through, I just don't I don't know that the time horizon me. So much could happen between now and whenever that deal goes through. You know, say there could be a situation where I'm right where this deal doesn't

[3:10:20] go through and I'm short for say the next 6 months and nothing happens and it through for the next 6 months and PayPal climbs steadily higher and higher and then suddenly it falls apart in the seventh month. But, you know, these are

[3:10:33] arbitrary numbers. Could be like could be a year, 13 months or whatever. Um, time these things up. So, not racing to get short PayPal, but I do have short somebody else told me they were going to get short PayPal.

[3:10:46] chat? E Media, Christopher Branch, pleasure to see all of you. Mr. Pillows >> My Peace Sky position is so down the drain. Gh. Yeah, Mr. Pillows. I'm I'm get out of one of my three Peace Sky contracts profitably. I had 10, 15, 20

[3:11:01] position I've ever put [laughter] on. I had all on the same expiration date, January 15th of next year, I had 10, 15, and 20 calls. I liquidated the 15 calls substantial profit, which basically funded the other two. So, kind of have a

[3:11:15] two are way down in the dumps right now. Uh, particularly the the 10 call hurting >> No. Um, just looking at this chart on Peace Sky right now, I'm curious to see like this because I know one thing that we recognize sometime is whenever we get

[3:11:30] such a long consistent downtrend that short interest used uh usually increases how bearish, you know, a lot of investors are on, you know, long-term on know some of those numbers. I know the uh short interest on something like like

[3:11:45] names like some of the some of the other oil names as we continue to ride that creeping up very slowly. So I just wonder if some of those dynamics would Paramount's not a company I see going out of business over the next 5 years

[3:11:59] without somebody buying them at least. So um we'll see what we get. floor. Nice. Thank you Ranch. Appreciate it. Yeah we've done this I don't know we've been we've been here on Wednesdays a few times. A little while now.

[3:12:11] verbiage used there is funny. Wow. On the floor because every time I'm on my didn't happen today specifically, but I will get the song on the floor stuck in >> Is that Is that Christina Aguilera or or Jennifer Lopez?

[3:12:26] >> I need a quick hum. >> It's like uh tonight we going to get it >> that stuck in my [laughter] that stuck in my head for the next three hours. Nobody clipped that. Um, with that being said, brother, Apple

[3:12:39] right now trading at 326. Uh, we tried to pull it back a little bit here, but I don't know if there's any news attached to it. Uh, but I know you got out of that one for a max profit the other day. Uh, you almost like bottomed like 80%

[3:12:52] profit on that one. Just decided to go ahead and take it off. And I say again, do I >> Is it a Is it a rotation? The thing that something's going on. It's odd. It's a little bit unusual to see that massive

[3:13:05] then we see things like Apple ripping to the upside, Meta ripping to the upside. was ripping to the upside as well. Um, so I guess time will tell. Uh, the clear as the market trades throughout the day. So

[3:13:19] has to be rotation like strong rotation out of some of these smaller names at at the top continue to run. It's yeah, we're there's there may be divergence even within the NASDAQ. You have these these big dogs are all having pretty

[3:13:33] good days today being dragged up along with ASML and then yeah, it has to be life out of it and keeping us compressed down. Um I would jump over to uh SanDisk >> Yeah, this thing this is one of the most emotionally challenging trades I've had

[3:13:48] >> It's a volatile one. >> Yeah, I think I'm going to wind up just going ahead and cutting my losses here. Um I I am down considerably, but there's there's more downside to be had. I don't know. Again, this one just emotionally

[3:14:01] describe it because I'm not even frustrated that's a loser. I lose trades the game, you know, but it is frustrating just because if if I do cut loss, before this trade, you know, goes to expiration uh and completely burns

[3:14:16] me, there is always, especially with Sandis, there is always a chance that this thing just jumps over 2,000 the next day. It's like the worst FOMO thing ever. So, I have to balance this potential FOMO with the reality that's

[3:14:29] that SanDisk does not seem to have any life right now, and I have 9 days left in this position for it to get back over 2,000. But to bounce from 1500 to 2,000, Sandis needs like a day and a half. So, you know, that's that's the other side

[3:14:41] of the equation is that it's hard to be rational and cut my losses knowing that unlike most things that you want to manage it at 21 DTE, much less 9 DTE, uh it it just has much better prospects, much better upside prospects and could

[3:14:55] could still feasibly recover. So, the fact that it could just kind of keeps me day we saw SKH log yesterday, which we haven't talked about SKH very much since >> SKHY. >> SKHY. Yeah. Um, yeah, I thought we would

[3:15:11] see SKH Heinix, you know, drag things up a little bit after the remarkable day that it had yesterday. Now, granted, and and we're already getting into this confusion that I've mentioned what happened yesterday. SK Heinix on the

[3:15:23] American market appears as though it had an amazing day, but that's because on before our market opens, it had a terrible day. So really it was just the middle of the some odd what was it

[3:15:36] 15 25% run down that it took in the South Korean market yesterday. So we're conflation things with this being traded on two markets as I mentioned may happen. We see that with Chinese names too of course. Um so I I thought that

[3:15:49] inject some life into the broader memory space and save me on the sand position. today. >> No a lot of volatility about 20 20 position that you're kind of just keeping an eye on? Are you trading any

[3:16:03] options like this? I know we had SpaceX IPO the other day. We got involved in that a little bit. Is SKH just uh just a watcher on the sidelines to see how the >> Yeah. Yeah, I have. Well, just because it's not like I don't want to say it's

[3:16:16] a publicly traded company in South Korea. It was already like it existed in the market. It's not actually its initial public offering. It's it's it's a initial American public offering. So, it's a little different. Not new to me,

[3:16:30] >> Exactly. Exactly. Cool. Speaking of which, SK Hanx options did open today. >> Awesome. We'll have to check out just to see uh what type of volume some of the interesting to >> Yeah, I would float as well. The the

[3:16:43] And I don't even think I don't even know that I want to say that this pertains to options going live specifically, but today options go live is down 12%. So, in the in the whopping sample size of two IPOs that we put this to the test on

[3:16:57] Batting a thousand. >> Yeah, batting a thousand. You got to mean, SIBO finally recovering a little bit more off these lows. It's only right. Uh, SIBO traded down at the lows at 228. Uh, and ever since then, we've

[3:17:10] been on a rally to the upside now trading at around 277. You know, still still below that high before the sell off of 371 over here, but um, you know, IV rink is solid. uh just be careful with some of the options on there, but

[3:17:23] 31st and uh we'll keep that one on the board at the same time. I know another often uh that I haven't really been trading is gold. Uh but gold seems to just be having a little bit more air coming out of it. I know we put in a top

[3:17:37] near 5,670 on gold. Uh we had a crack to the downside which gave us a little bit in, maybe it's not, but this is the first time we've seen a little bit of a change in behavior here. we put in another low and now we've kind of just

[3:17:50] been crawling to the downside. So, I mean, if we zoom out over here on gold and we go to let's say a weekly chart, uh we can kind of see we're starting to trade at around the same level where we got the second breakout on gold. So, is

[3:18:02] downside? Sure. Um but at the same time, we we put in some decent downside since the highs of around like 5,490, but for the most part, I haven't been how you've been perceiving the metals. Um, but silver and gold's been been off

[3:18:17] my mind for some time now, but the volatility is there. Um, you know, if >> Yeah. Yeah, the directionality is is certainly there. Um, I'm in the same metal space isn't one that I've been particularly invested in over the past

[3:18:30] uh, you know, few months. It's it's just interesting cuz like like I always say, own whole thing to keep up with. Like metals are are one thing, oil is another. And personally, I only have the bandwidth to keep up with like one of

[3:18:44] oil becomes the trendy thing, my mind it's just it's its own whole thing to try to keep up with and let alone >> And and you alluded to oil a little bit there. I'm curious to see how this is

[3:18:57] so much uncertainty. We had a little bit of a pop to the upside. Is this going to continue? We're not sure. Um I think it's going to be extremely headline saying, based off of what deals are going on behind the scenes that we don't

[3:19:09] know of. Uh but but another instance where these these products definitely looking for some direction in the market. Uh but definitely managing your risk. No doubt. >> Uh Suni Sunnith in chat. Apologies I'm

[3:19:21] AND ACCURATELY pointing out that next time Gus takes a sandis position I'll record of four on four. It's true. I am a sandisk rug and whatever I do next you >> you know what? You know what's funny about that though? I remember I was

[3:19:37] getting short Micron down at around I think the seven or 800s and I think I took a short position two times and I was like, you know what, I'm 0 for two. done right now, too. So, I don't know if I'll touch it again, but you guys can

[3:19:49] also inverse my positions if I touch Micron again cuz I am 0 for two, but I'm Um, if Micron and some of these other tech names, I'm sorry, if Micron and continue to sell off a little bit lower and then we get a little bit of a relief

[3:20:02] confidence maybe to take some short delta to the downside, but only if we even though this seems like a substantial pullback, we've seen the type of volatility that Micron and Sandis can put in. So, don't want to get

[3:20:15] moves, but we'll keep an eye on them. >> Yeah, and Sandis probably moving on to that there will be more trades there. There are so many other good products, you know, three three strikes, you're out, four strikes, you're out. I I I

[3:20:27] strikes you're out policy in in situations like these. I I actually did the same thing with with silver. I happened to win silver on my third one. one up in the medals into the end of last year, I tried to get short silver

[3:20:41] three different times and eventually won the third one to such a degree that it fortunate. However, with SanDisk, the only reason I decided to abandon, and reason I decided to take the fourth stab at SanDisk was because I was changing my

[3:20:54] directional bias. I had tried to get short thrice and then I was like, "Okay, different enough." Uh, and then just, you know, here here we go again. They go moveing right down. So, uh, yeah, I I don't the SanDisk thing. And, you know,

[3:21:07] it's interesting cuz like maybe the next time I trade SanDisk, I'll try to do the opposite of what I want to do. then it will be up to y'all to decide if it's actually me or if me doing the opposite of my original prediction is the right

[3:21:19] thing. And I decipher that trade would be the ultimate determinant of that. >> That's true. >> I might have to go neutral. Uh but it it some of these metal names are panning out again. I mean, we've seen

[3:21:34] underlyings go into that euphoric kind of state, but to see that on silver and day, not something you see every year, not something you see every decade. Um, consider that the price of silver and gold right now, although we've had a

[3:21:48] little bit of a a cool off period, is still actually at a pretty good price point considering the euphoric moves. You know, we went on a little bit there. to retire a little bit early there because I don't know if silver and gold

[3:22:01] get back to those levels anytime soon. Again, I hope I'm wrong because I do love the volatility. Um, and that would must mean we probably have some type of the broader market going on if silver and gold continue to rally.

[3:22:14] >> Oh, yeah. Obviously very tied into rates as well. It's like it's a these are same as oil. It's obviously different things that move both of them, but yeah, set of of criteria to try to keep up with if you're fitting these things.

[3:22:27] have to I don't know the dedication. >> Yeah. I mean, everybody kind everybody underlyings they pay attention to. They're very familiar with the behavior stick to those things, too. So, it's a good point that you bring up.

[3:22:40] >> Yeah, you're absolutely right. Um, let's see what else here. AT&T T. Uh, I think I'm going to go ahead and take this off right now. Actually, I I was I was have this expiring on Friday. I needed over 2250 by then. We just didn't quite

[3:22:55] catch the bounce quickly. >> We almost got there. Yeah, almost got correct. Uh just a bit too aggressive with my strikes, trying to create a more too aggressive with my time horizon for the same reason. Uh we're down $35

[3:23:09] notional on this and I have seven of these. So, $7 notional per. Um, and I mean, yeah, that constitutes like I don't know, 12 15%. Uh, so being able to get that out this this far from a 15% loss. Yeah, I I'm willing to go ahead

[3:23:25] >> the me being directionally correct and getting those small legs up has kind of course, I just get slipped another $4 as I try to get out of here. Yeah, there we go. So, exiting that one as as a loser. We will move on to bigger and better

[3:23:39] correct in the conviction and wrong in the execution, but it's the way the know, number one. >> Yeah, of course. Like I said, I lose trades all the time. It's Yeah. Anybody it's Yeah. I'm not going to go on a

[3:23:52] on Instagram. They're like, "Oh, our like, "No, no, you don't." Or you're doing things that that is not uh profitable to to win an 87% click.

[3:24:04] You're doing 90% things at an 87% clip. Nobody's winning that many trades. It's It's not how this game works. You know, you're you're going to take losers. >> Exactly. Law of large numbers. Trade them small, trade them often. As we

[3:24:17] always say, good morning to you too, sir. Good to see you in chat. these were a few trades that we tried to take in the micro NASDAQ this morning. that we were looking at. Our value area

[3:24:30] This level was really interesting because near the close yesterday, we had some massive selling going into the doesn't mean that the market is going to continue to sell off. It doesn't mean

[3:24:42] that the market is going to rally. What it does mean is that market participants are very interested in this level. Um, so that's why we wanted to pay closer attention to it. And you can see over here we took about one, two, three,

[3:24:54] a half, maybe three or four trades right here where we got stopped out of. And I mean, we we were down about 350 bucks, maybe 320 bucks. And I mean, I'm not some of the trades could have been managed a little bit better. Uh,

[3:25:09] multitasking a little bit this morning as well. But I will say that's no excuse you got to be able to manage that risk. You got to be able to put your risk parameters around no matter, you know, whatever it is that you're doing. So, I

[3:25:21] little bit better. Maybe we could have got that loss down to maybe 200 bucks, even 150, maybe even a little bit less than that. Um, but we weren't managing as quickly as we should have. We didn't have some of our stops in as quickly as

[3:25:33] entry right here where we were getting out was a little bit higher than we well. So, I just think that managing that risk is going to be so important. on in the day, even though we missed this short to the downside where we were

[3:25:47] move. We weren't able to catch the downside short, but we were able to move, which puts us down about 40 bucks on the day. So you can just see by being able to manage the risk on the trades that don't work out. We took four losses

[3:26:02] this morning and then we take one good trade on less size, one good trade on less size and it almost puts us in the green. So if we would have managed those better, we would have been green on the day. Um but happy to see the volatility

[3:26:15] opportunity. But what can be so difficult sometimes is not kicking those emotions a little bit volatile because then you might miss that second almost miss that. And I almost didn't want to take it after being down three

[3:26:30] don't really want to go on the show down four or 500 because if this trade loses, you know, how is that going to make my P&L look? But the way trades and the way don't know for sure what trades are going to work out. Sometimes you just

[3:26:43] manage the trade as you go. Uh but that's what we did a little bit in the micro NASDAQ. We'll see um if we continue to sell off or not. You can see we kind of had a couple more bounces off this next value area high here and then

[3:26:55] top of this level. So massive divergences, massive divergences in both going to keep an eye on it. I'm I'm excited to see how it plays out. I'm Not going to be taking any more trades. Uh but again, it's not every single day

[3:27:09] that we see something like a divergence between ES and MNQ like that. So I'm mean, I think just observing the observing the overall market, getting in build more of that conviction and confidence in some of those trades. But

[3:27:24] again, not something you see every day. >> Yeah. Interesting too here. It's like we had we had divergence on the open, but then we now are moving a little bit more correlated like we're both both indices are sinking simultaneously right now,

[3:27:36] but NASDAQ had a head start on the downside. So, it is it is down more. Um, it's yeah, divergence hard environment to manage always. 100%. Yesterday we had Spain and France. Spain absolutely crushes France. I'm not

[3:27:52] >> Rendered Mbappe completely ineffective. >> Rendered in I mean, you said it could have pulled words that were [laughter] that would accur accurately was an exciting game. It was exciting to watch. We'll see what we get. I know

[3:28:05] uh England. Who are you taking from? >> I like England. I do. It's It's a hard >> This guy's a traitor. It it feels [laughter] in my heart like England will choke. This feels like a choke spot for England. But at the same time, Argentina

[3:28:19] well until yesterday to be fair. But Argentina and Spain were like the two fully bought in on yet. I have to buy in on Spain now because I thought that Argentina, I'm still not all the way there. They played with their food a

[3:28:33] >> Splain played some good football yesterday. I mean, I I mean, it was really a testament to how great team play can beat individual talent. And I straight through them, and I think they exposed uh their midfield a little bit

[3:28:48] Let us know in the chat who you guys are going for, Argentina or England. I think that being said, anything else going to be top of mind in this market uh as we hours left. >> Yeah, just I don't know. I might swing

[3:29:02] only thing. That's that's what I'll be juggling for potentially the next few whether to get short PayPal or not. Ranch making me laugh in the chat. better when I put in the time. I I I believe you ranch. I don't even think

[3:29:15] that that that just sounds funny. Got to screen Max. >> Especially when the World Cup is on. You got to screen max. be on right there and then you got the markets on right there too. So that's

[3:29:28] the trading pits. But with that being said, guys, appreciate you guys taking us know what you're looking at. Let us know what you're managing. But be sure coming on next. And we'll catch you guys next time. Peace.

[3:30:01] [music] Yeah. with Jamal Chandler. What's happening? >> It is a wacky Wednesday, July 15th. We

[3:30:15] got some stuff coming out right now, literally as we speak. We got the PPI report. Uh market just jumped a little bit. We had some earnings overnight. morning. We got some earnings after the close. Seems like it's going to be a uh

[3:30:30] >> Earnings infested day already. Rumors of a takeout at some point today. Um yeah, we got a lot of things to cover for sure. As a matter of fact, let's pull up today and the different people we're going to interact with here. Of course,

[3:30:44] you got the open uh here with us. You got the opening bell with Liz. We'll come on. She'll come on and talk about things she saw overnight. And uh we'll guys. Matter of fact, I already got one off. I forgot to mention I have a super

[3:30:58] bear on. We have a guest Mark Likenfeld, chief income strategist of the Oxford Club. Looking forward to talking to him. Actually talked to him once before uh back in April and we talked about Oracle and so far he was right about what he

[3:31:11] said. Errol will be at the CBOE. We'll talk about scalping. Of course, Errol's NASDAQ terms which will be great. We'll see the levels that he's looking at. We're going to uh eventually get to live trades with Chris and Liz at 10 a.m. and

[3:31:24] then risk and reward with Gus and Errol. So, just a sample of some of the things we're going to be going through today. >> Love it. And uh join us on the YouTube throw in your trade ideas, questions along the right hand side chat. We will

[3:31:37] show. >> Yeah. Uh but yeah, first things first, >> Yeah. Uh but yeah, first things first, ASML earnings uh came out just a little bit ago and uh we closed at 1775. We're trading at 1830 right now.

[3:31:52] >> Yeah, I mean it's pretty pretty inside move all things considered. This has been a really high implied volatility product and this is well within the implied move uh for the earnings announcement, but inside up I think is

[3:32:06] still going to be good for those bulls out there. And I think this this could be one of those things that is pushing this market higher uh at least in the the first few minutes of the futures markets trading from from when we

[3:32:18] >> Yeah, I mean this is a name where uh it was kind of interesting from the standpoint that it's a semi name and and obviously I think anything happening drive a little bit of sentiment with semis, but this is definitely not one

[3:32:31] that we're trading. I mean the markets in here are criminally wide. I mean like $10 wide in some strikes. So this wasn't about the trade. It was more about how we have on. And it seems as though at least for now it's positive for semis,

[3:32:46] positive for tech. Seems to be up. >> Love it. Uh we have I think we have Chris Beckio on the line. Do we not? >> We do. I think we do. >> I'm interested to hear what he has to say about the PPI report. Uh we do have

[3:33:00] >> yeah you'll be here >> information uh relative to the announcement or or the print I should say that just came out at 7:30 central jumped up about 10 points but yesterday I think the bigger move uh is what we

[3:33:14] saw if you look at the minute chart in the E- minis you can see uh this jump right here this is the PPI report that just came out right at 7:30 about a >> I'm interested to get his take see what he thinks I mean because we've actually

[3:33:28] numbers. I mean, I thought inflation was still a problem, but clearly it's not that much of a problem. So, uh, when we talk about CPI yesterday and PPI today, both you move up on both. You've seen times where they're bifrocated. Uh, it's

[3:33:43] it's hard to tell what the market is thinking here, but guess the number was >> Yeah. Uh, yesterday was interesting though. We had the initial pop and then we sold off immediately and then kind of chopped around. And that was basically

[3:33:57] the story of yesterday. >> Uh as you can see there wasn't really too much movement and then overnight session today kind of drifted higher slightly slightly slightly. Uh >> trying to see we did get a million we

[3:34:09] did get a million in um ES contracts yesterday. So that worked out well. I know Frank was talking about volume and it was um uh fairly elevated kind of early but I think that had to do some with CPI right. So uh we ended up you

[3:34:22] know getting over a million contracts on a summer day. Hey, I mean that that's all you can ask for. >> Yeah, for sure. SKH Highix uh took a >> Yeah, for sure. SKH Highix uh took a tumble yesterday and uh it's going to be

[3:34:34] wild to see what happens with this product. Initially uh opened at 170ish, dropped all the way down to the 150s, gapped up uh >> Yeah, gapped up big time. Uh, sorry. Previous day we had a a drop on the

[3:34:50] we saw a big rally up to 190, but now we're sitting at 180. So, this is a the this is part for the course here. Uh, it's almost the exact same chart as SpaceX, interestingly enough, gapping

[3:35:02] down here. Let's see. We'll see if we trudge around these levels, 160, 170. Uh, but we do have options here. Yesterday, we only had like five expirations, I want to say. Now, we've got a lot more. Uh, so I imagine in the

[3:35:16] next couple days they'll probably release weekly expirations as well, but again, part for the course. 100% implied volatility in all these cycles. You're going to see that uh for a lot of IPOs, most IPOs, just because you're seeing

[3:35:29] They're they're moving like they have binary events every single day. binary events every single day. >> Yeah. So far, um, SK SKHYV, not a good ticker. Stock was down. skhy

[3:35:43] stock only goes up. So, [laughter] we'll see if that holds up today, but >> to the four-letter tickers. >> Yeah, exactly. Yeah, five. Five is no >> Cool. Uh, we do have Chris Veio on the line. Uh, I want to hear what you have

[3:35:55] line. Uh, I want to hear what you have to say, Mr. Chris, about the PPI report. >> Morning. I'd say just drop the V. It's a lot cleaner for the stock ticker. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. I'm looking forward to the sequel

[3:36:09] here. But yeah, you guys uh my eyes are on ASML this morning. Um yesterday with opportunities in markets where we had sustainable uptrends but short-term pullbacks and so we initiated a long position on ASML. You guys did. So that

[3:36:22] looks like it's [clears throat] Yeah. So it looks like that's going to work out are knock on consequences, right? Their guidance was really strong. What does ASML do? They make the EUV lithography machines that you need in order to make

[3:36:34] memory chips. So when they're telling you that they're uh that the demand for that there's more memory supply coming down the pipeline at some point in the that. That's been a problem for the memory stocks in recent weeks. But for

[3:36:47] the companies like ASML or TSM, uh this is probably a decent shot. So I'm we have TSM earnings coming up on Thursday morning. Uh I think this is a right now. It's below its one month. It's above its 50. It's bouncing from

[3:37:01] its 50. And with the rest of the space, this is uh this is the first place I'm looking this morning. And hopefully, unlike yesterday's JP Morgan trade, I >> Why would you do it yesterday morning? >> Well, yesterday we were trying to sell a

[3:37:14] ripped. >> Yeah. Completely ran. >> It ran away. >> So maybe we'll have better luck today. >> Yeah, JP Morgan. Oh, man. I had a call calendar and it dropped on the open and

[3:37:27] then I was like I I forgot to close the shorts cuz those I had the three-day then we saw the intraday reversal and then I looked at it and they're all like, "Oh, this is this could have been a thousand winner if I just closed these

[3:37:39] >> I know, right? >> Uh still a good winner. I had uh two call calendar spreads that I closed for I think 160 bucks, something like that. >> Yeah, 160 bucks. 340 350. you know, if we're, you know, the way that we were

[3:37:54] the way that we should be approaching TSM today. Um, I'm looking at the 37 days to expiration, the 39,400 short put spread. $10 wide, you're collecting $3.67 in credit, so better than a third of the

[3:38:08] width of the strikes. Um, generating $245 in theta at a 63% probability of below the 50-day moving average, as has been the modus operande around here for this particular buy the dip strategy that I like to employ. Uh, it worked

[3:38:23] things. So, going back into the well this morning at the open. Hopefully, we get filled today. 39,400 short put spread. >> Um, as uh yeah, that's a good point. There's a bunch of earnings coming out

[3:38:36] uh tomorrow morning. Also, one that comes out tonight, UL and Chris, this bit with the data we just got this morning. U obviously uh moves a lot with oil. Oil is is coming back again. Oil >> seemingly didn't really factor into the

[3:38:51] case today with PPI? It seems like we're jumping on these inflation numbers and be that worried about it. >> No, the market's getting kind of what it would be what's happening with the 2-year yield right now. Two-year yields

[3:39:06] are lower in part because the SR3 Z6 contract is moving up, right? The quick axis, you subtract that from 100. That's how you get the implied Fed funds rate particular expiration cycle. So PPI today prices fell 0.3% month overmonth

[3:39:23] versus an estimated reading of flat. They were uh uh core reading was up 0.2 versus 0.4. The the core headline 4.7 versus 5.2 anticipated. So um you know PPI comes out today and more or less confirms a little bit of the CPI relief.

[3:39:39] come in and there was still a bunch of inflation burbling through the pipeline. In fact, the burbling through the pipeline is slowing down itself, which means there's a reduced odds of that inflation reaching the end consumer

[3:39:52] here. So, this is great news for I think markets. Generally speaking, the albatross are in the market's neck has always been higher yields and if the Fed July or September, then this train keeps going guys, right?

[3:40:06] Uh [laughter] >> so why why why are we going to get too worked up then? Um it's July after all and markets been off to a slow start in of the year. The best month of the year in fact. Maybe there's still time to

[3:40:19] point. >> Yeah. Uh after the CPI yesterday, we saw the looking at the CME Fedatch tool, we saw the probabilities get cut in half. Uh market was expecting a 30% chance of 25 basis point hike and then 16 15. Uh

[3:40:35] this is light to dark going from a month back to current. So yeah, going to be This is July and then if you go to September, similar story. Uh things are just flipping around here. But two days in a row of pretty similar readings for

[3:40:51] July and September. Um but yeah, >> and you notice that twist in the bond curve, right? I mean, if ZT that's up today, ZN and ZB, they're basically flat. They're not even really trading higher. you're this there's this

[3:41:03] continued steepening of the yield curve right now. So I I always go back to September 24 as like an anchor point for the environment. The Fed cuts 50 basis points. What happens to long and yields? They blow out. So in that same token, if

[3:41:15] hike and all of a sudden hikes aren't coming, then inflation expectations can still. So two years stays down, 10 years, 30 years they go up. You get a little bit more of an acid inflationary environment. This is not our first

[3:41:29] rodeo, gentlemen. This is not our first rodeo for sure. Yeah, this there's something happening for sure underneath the surface here. Uh but I'm just um I'm curious at some point if the market changes its its tune. Um in the

[3:41:42] trading the way I've been trading. >> Yeah. >> Uh can I throw you guys one more trade tomorrow. I know that we have United Healthcare coming up and that was a

[3:41:54] >> it felt like that was a big favorite for parts of last year after the all of the uh the murder of one of its executives to just bad business decisions.

[3:42:06] absolute tear, right? It's trading at 416 pre-market right now. It again fits month above the 50-day and you can see it's been a pretty strong uptrend in tomorrow, I think I'm going to dip my toe in here as well. 396 is your 50-day

[3:42:21] moving average right now. So sitting out at 37 days, I'm looking at 380 370. Uh that's at the one standard deviation move, it's just not paying enough. So little bit more this morning. I'm going to be patient on this. Uh because right

[3:42:36] now it's a $142 in credit for $10 worth uh wide strikes. So that's a little too tighten up, we can get another like5 or $10 drop, I can start to dip my toes in looking this morning. Things that fit my buy the dip criteria. And if we have a

[3:42:49] catalyst coming around the corner, like an earnings report, all the better. here actually. Um, looks pretty good to me. When I look at the 2-day versus 9day, look at the 450 strike. I can get that for a buck 43, which likely means

[3:43:04] that for a buck 43, which likely means if you're interested in a diagonal, Usually, if the calendar calls line up nice, the diagonals line up nice, too, you know. So, >> be a good one. This is actually This

[3:43:16] >> be a good one. This is actually This one's cheaper uh than what we were just looking at with uh TSM >> TSM >> I would think >> just looking at like the same exact

[3:43:28] move, selling that at the 440 and then buying the 9-day 440. Uh you're getting half of the cost basis reduction if paying eight bucks uh for the 2-day 9-day split. But when you look at UNH,

[3:43:44] you are collecting way more. You're collecting four bucks against six bucks. So the ratio is significantly higher. And when you have those setups, your break evens are way wider because you're paying way less uh dollar for dollar or

[3:43:57] at least you're collecting more dollar for dollar and reducing basis aggressively. Like this is a huge cost basis reduction. And all you need to basis reduction. And all you need to happen here for this trade is uh for

[3:44:09] this option in the nine-day cycle. And you can see there's plenty of situations >> And that's a great call out because yeah, look at the uh the IVX for the both of them. I mean, between two-day and 9day for UNH, it's it's like 30

[3:44:24] points whereas it's like 10 points for TSM because VA just stays been there if it's earnings or not. Every day is earnings in TSM and all these other [laughter] names. >> Yeah. Right. Oh, what happened

[3:44:37] >> Right. Yeah. >> Okay. I see. Sure. Just another day. summer days. What? Summer? What's summer? This ain't summer trading. This day. >> It's It's all viable.

[3:44:52] >> It has. >> Joking before the market. I I haven't yesterday and we come in here and it's like 100 degrees in the studio. I'm [laughter] >> I know, right? His house. The studio.

[3:45:05] Chris. I don't need that in my house. I've been burning sage on my property to rid myself of [laughter] all the Black Swan events. Maybe that you have walking through the hallways just saying no black swan go

[3:45:20] away. Go [laughter] away. >> Unbelievable. Love it. [clears throat] >> Uh yeah, you minis are creeping higher here. Up 18. Nasdaq's up 150. Everything seems to be green. Um are you are you trading these crude oil markets? I mean,

[3:45:34] the backwardation continues to creep in here. Now, we're getting a lift in the back here. These were sub 70 yesterday. Now, they're above 70 and the 1 day, over. >> Actually, that's a good point. I didn't

[3:45:48] I feel like with crude, you can really tell what's going on with crude when it seems like it was kind of quiet overnight, right? >> Pinned. Pinned overnight. Stuck near 79. You know, I I mean, yesterday I took off

[3:46:00] short put spreads that had been deep underwater and so I wanted to give yesterday instead of putting something right back on. Um I think I said to from trading crude because of how I was feeling emotionally. But

[3:46:14] since you took those positions off. [laughter] >> Yeah. No, but I'm still operating out in the the U6, the V6, and the Z6 cycles where you get the backwardation creeps in and then every time the market kind

[3:46:28] finding just a little bit of a higher price floor out there. Um, I'm of the in a quagmire right now with Iran. And so, uh, this tit for tat is probably back down, nor will we, at least through the midterms. So, dips on oil selling

[3:46:44] put spreads. Uh, I'm going to treat the pre-war levels as the Florida workaround. It was painful for a few weeks. I was President. But now it's time to find the next trade.

[3:46:57] why um, somebody asked in the chat, go back over why you don't love the, uh, think it was you were saying. >> Yeah. So, one of the like rules of thumb that when you're uh looking to do something like a short put spread or a

[3:47:11] looking to collect about a third of the width of the strikes in terms of that credit. And so, when you're looking at a $10 wide put spread and you're only collecting a $142, it feels a little light, which is why TSM is so much more

[3:47:23] appealing because you're getting 367 or so there or 370 there. Um, and that's think the risk-to-reward is a little bit juicier, a little bit more tolerable for what we're trying to accomplish. >> Nice. Nice. Your boy Williams is on the

[3:47:37] uh tape right now. It sounds like uh shelter inflation should remain on downward path. Expect overall inflation to fall to 3 and a/4% by year end. target? >> Yeah. [laughter]

[3:47:52] >> Um yeah, I think >> mission accomplished [clears throat] agree with you and it was it was interesting to see because when we got that initial news headline that things were heating up again, it was an

[3:48:07] interesting scenario because all there was like four of these contracts and to see this I just click uh from all expirations to regular expirations and can just X out the regular expirations here to to reverse it. But this is how

[3:48:21] how we look at the curve. Really easy to do. But when they made that initial do. But when they made that initial announcement, we saw 74 in the 1 day, 74 in the 33 day, 74 in the 64 day, 74 in the 92day. And that was exactly the

[3:48:33] sentiment that you just said where we're expecting this to be happening for a lot longer. The first time it was really just an emphasis on the near-term cycles, maybe the first and second contract, but the fact that all four of

[3:48:46] reading, and then the back months were still in the 70s kind of is just telling of those numbers tells you this is going to be a thing that's probably going to last for a lot longer than we think. Yeah. And just being considerate of the

[3:49:00] this in March and going, "Oh, well, if know, this thing could really be extending into the middle of the year." months out is 2027. >> Yeah.

[3:49:12] >> So now that's no longer no longer a quick little special operation. That was the Russian term for invading Ukraine. I you know all see >> See it's hard to keep up. That's why I stopped doing it man. That's why just

[3:49:24] look at the price action man. I can't >> No, I think the important point there is like Russia Ukraine is still going on. Do we care about it? >> not really. The market does not react to it at all. So once we can once the

[3:49:38] going for the oil and all the uh petrochemicals, fertilizer etc from the region and they can reroute that supply elsewhere, the war can just grind on and from the straight going to be gravy everything else this is just the new

[3:49:52] >> Yeah. >> Higher floor under oil >> craziness. Um we put on some SPX Super Bowls or I had a Super Bowl this off so that Jamal can get his super bear. Right after I right after I close

[3:50:07] this, the markets will sell off. >> So, uh, trying to route this for $150 winner. I routed it for a 10-cent credit. Um, and the name of the game for these trades is just selling a put spread to buy a call spread and

[3:50:19] don't really care what the credit is as long as it's a credit. Uh, and you're really just replacing your put spread credit to get value out of your call UNH where Chris you said you didn't like

[3:50:32] the riskreward there. Maybe uh you you replace it with you know a 10point wide spread. Now all of a sudden if you get the rally your P&L looks a lot different. The risk is still the same of course but um

[3:50:45] >> I got to make I got to make my shopping list for today. So I got UNH I got uh Fiserve for reasons I will explain once Gus gets on. Um what else have we talked about here? Uh UAL maybe. I don't know if I'm doing UL. Anything else you guys

[3:51:00] >> yeah, I mean I have Johnson and Johnson on my list too, uh just because it it criteria here. Y >> um it's a little bit below that uh one about former highs that were in place throughout February, March, running in

[3:51:15] around like 245 to 250. So we're kind of at that spot right now. um 78 IVR. The raw volatility is not super high in the 26 27 area. If you go out over the next few weeks, nevertheless, got to take opportunities where we can find them.

[3:51:29] being a little mechanical here. If it fits the criteria, then we just execute. people should understand like at this point, we've been growing our books a little bit. So, it's like we got to find certain things that fit. Some things fit

[3:51:43] looking at this one too for maybe selling a put in here. this fits my uh consumer staples long situation I got going on in the book. So I I might end >> You know, I think that's where >> that's where I've gone though mentally

[3:51:56] too. It's like okay, where have I positions? ASML, WDC, SMH, NASDAQ, uh >> All right, this is all very like high beta growth centric. >> So what can I do to reduce like the beta weighted deltas in my portfolio? I could

[3:52:10] uncorrelated stocks, >> right? Um, so looking at J&J, looking at UNH, looking at um, you know, TSM obviously doesn't fit that bill, but healthcare has been strong. >> It has. And then we have I have a lot of

[3:52:25] you what, on the days where the semis and the tech are down, I'm actually decided to put on a lot of those consumer staple stuff. Um, and the rotation is working. I I know for a fact there's going to be a day because I keep

[3:52:39] data. As a matter of fact, this is probably as good time as many as any. Let's pull up uh one of these charts, the one with uh the DPSX uh dispersion the one with uh the DPSX uh dispersion chart on it. Um I uh I I I know there's

[3:52:52] going to be one of these days where all of it goes down. It's not it's not going to be a rotation. There's going to be a day where tech is down and semies are down and then also the consumer staples are also down. And that's going to be

[3:53:04] the day where we're probably down over 100 and change and VIX actually moves up reason why I say that is because this is our current situation. This is from our friends at the SIBO. And um you know, when you look at dispersion, it's at a

[3:53:16] six-year high right now, meaning correlation is is not correlation is low. And look where VIX is. Usually VIX is a little bit higher when dispersion is high. As you can see, last time it was this high was around the time of uh

[3:53:28] the liberation day. So this is kind of an interesting chart. If you are a bear, the market is going to fall at some point in time. This is kind of your don't know how it does it during the

[3:53:42] the bearer of bad news. I would think, to keep an eye on. This is why, you know, it's nice to be in the euphoria of the market, but got to pay attention to

[3:53:54] charts like that. You can't ignore it. >> Yeah, absolutely. And I think uh I think bearers of bad news or at least they'll print a number and the market will just disregard it, scoff at it. >> Uh because a lot of these tech stocks, I

[3:54:10] mean all of these tech stocks have astronomical expectations and that can sometimes be a recipe for disaster if there's any kind of slowdown in guidance or if they if they just meet the number. That's the crazy thing. If they meet the

[3:54:24] number and they don't kill it, that could be a a catalyst for a market >> Well, we're two weeks out from July 29th, which is when Meta, Microsoft, all those guys. So, you know, get you got two weeks to get your affairs in order.

[3:54:36] Two weeks. >> Just two weeks. >> Um, yeah. E- mini still chopping around here. Up 22, NASDAQ up 200. Uh, the Dow and the Russell. What do you make of the the Dow? The last couple of days, the

[3:54:50] Dow has been moving at a complete uh negative one correlation to the E- Minis and NASDAQ. We've seen a handful of times where E- Min's NASDAQ up, Dow times where E- Min's NASDAQ up, Dow down, emin Nasdaq down, Dow up. Do you

[3:55:03] read into that at all? Uh [clears throat] wasn't there a wasn't there a piece of news yesterday from one of uh the bigger Dow components? Am [snorts] I am I mistaking things? >> Uh what was it related to? IBM,

[3:55:19] >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. IBM. Yeah. They um basically came out and said >> Yeah. Their their customers are basically wanting more um more AI related offerings or something like that.

[3:55:33] yesterday. >> Yeah. Biggest move. >> Somebody drew a line here. >> That just that feels like that may be a contributing factor for maybe why the Dow's been underperformed recently.

[3:55:45] >> just a cool. >> But I mean, look look at the look at the Caterpillar, UNH, Microsoft, Google, those are the top five components. Um, among them, you're talking about like 35% of the Dow. So, Microsoft's been in

[3:55:59] opportunities in UNH. Caterpillar actually comes up on my scan today, too. We know Goldman just surged to all-time highs yesterday. So, I mean, look, there that are weighing down uh the index, but I don't know if you want to

[3:56:13] because of how the Dow's constructed. It's It's a special index. >> I hate it. Can't stand it. [laughter] >> I was like, "It's a special." >> There it is. >> Um, yeah, we've got IBM up three points.

[3:56:28] Uh, three and a half points and I needed up another 30 for this calendar spread. But I like the way that this sets up. Long post earnings, short pre-earnings with the intention to roll from the 2-day to the 9-day. Uh, and I can tell

[3:56:42] you right now this option initially that I sold for.7 cents trading for 30 cents now. But once I roll this from the 2-day to the 9 day, trading for $2 and change. So, it's going to be some kind of two $3 roll.

[3:56:57] here, it'll just increase that roll credit. But I plan to do that uh either today or tomorrow. Hit that weekend premium in there. >> There you go. >> Yeah. There you have it.

[3:57:12] >> Um, yeah. And you know, I just mentioned that Caterpillar there as well. Just morning. Uh, $8.99 short put spread. I 37 days to expiration like the other trades that we've talked about this

[3:57:24] morning. It fits the criteria. $3.58 of credit generated. Uh, $10 wide strike. strike, 59% probability of profit. Where does it sit? Just below the 50-day. It's you got this I I really like this dynamic. Right now, the market has had a

[3:57:40] start to July. All the bears are like, "Ah, bulls are giving up because the the halfway point. It's the odds of July, as it were." And so, now we can finally get our return to the upside. And yes, I am absolutely talking my

[3:57:54] birthday this week. And so, let's go. What day? >> Uh, all day on Saturday. >> Happy early birthday. >> Yeah, man. Happy early birthday.

[3:58:07] >> Yeah. Yeah. Thank you. >> Maybe Caterpillar can provide you a >> We'll give you a present by way of UNH rally and uh >> just like cat unh feel cat feels right. You know the Knicks have knew I knew

[3:58:21] portfolios got >> cat I saw his I just saw it like happen know >> you can see the twinkle in my eyes. [laughter] >> Um I was filled on that Super Bowl got

[3:58:34] filled uh just now. So, I sold it for 10 cents, routed it for 10 cents, got out of it for a $140. So, it's $150 winner in and out in 15 minutes uh into this rally for uh PPI. That was really the reason why I put it on because CPI, we

[3:58:49] saw a little bump in the market. PPI, we saw the same thing. Um and I just want to secure that before it goes away. We can revisit uh maybe some zero day stuff good thing. >> It's nice. quite nice. Uh but yeah,

[3:59:06] break. Join us on the YouTube channel. Throw in your trade ideas and questions along the righth hand side chat. We already just showed one, but uh yeah, you're watching Tasty Live. We'll see you in 90 seconds.

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[4:02:45] got the E- Minis up 20, the Nasdaq up almost 200 and it seems to be a nice green day after the PPI report. We had ASML earnings after uh a little bit of a faltering yesterday. We're seeing that up a little bit today. We've got some

[4:02:59] other sympathy moves in TSM. We've got a handful of other products reporting earnings today, but I'm joined by Jamal and Gus. And Gus always brings the heat. >> Doing good. Always good. I I was I was telling you guys a little a little

[4:03:12] we're going to turn it on for for this show here. I've had 12 12 fluid ounces of cold brew already. It flowth freely. More shall enter my body very shortly. So, we're we're doing [laughter] good. >> Yeah, it's been uh it's been a crazy

[4:03:25] morning and uh that's why we've got cold brew and tap here at Tasty. >> One one of the one of the best perks of of any job anywhere perhaps. This might really when you think about it. >> I mean, well, it depends on who you are.

[4:03:38] on hard knocks that someone will go up and they'll be like 20k and Williams [clears throat] is like three 3.5 million. [laughter] That's how I see how >> my name is Yeah. My name is Caleb Williams $10 million signed.

[4:03:55] >> Exactly. Um yeah, we have all kinds of interesting stories today. Gonna going to stay away from uh talking earnings too much here. I know Chris already we got lots of fun non-earning stories to touch on. First one, not going to

[4:04:08] spend a lot of time here, but oil rising again. We have resumed strikes on Iran. Uh Trump has said that they will continue to intensify if if these peace So you you want peace. Here's some bombs. I don't know. Perhaps a good

[4:04:22] negotiating strategy, but it is continuing to drive oil upward. So keep keep your eyes on oil. Uh it's I I'm too scared to touch it myself, but if for anybody with the cojones to do so, I respect it. Uh beyond that, Alibaba is

[4:04:35] moving this morning. First real topic for today. Uh their shares are opening set to open up about 4% after Apple announced that they are partnering with Alibaba to integrate Alibaba's. Now this is a tough word. It is QN AI is the

[4:04:50] spelling here. I have seen lots of American media outlets pronounce this Quen. So I believe that to be acceptable, but I I a man of culture know that Q's are pronounced like a ch in Chinese. So formally chuen is how

[4:05:04] you're supposed to say this. Anyway, twin AI uh they are they are integrating it into Apple intelligence in China. So that's all iOS everything iPad, Mac, uh any any Apple operating system is going to have Alibaba's twin AI integrated

[4:05:18] into it uh for Apple intelligence applications in China. And Alibaba won this uh in a bidding war isn't the right word, but a business war with DeepSeek to get this partnership with Apple. >> Schwin, is that like Schwin?

[4:05:30] >> Well, it's funny you say that. Someone actually in the YouTube chat back in the day, this is obviously a core memory now, I guess. But uh pendodo, we used to call it pindoo. They're like, "No, no, no. It's pendodo, like door without the

[4:05:43] >> No, I thought it was like pendu duo. I didn't even realize it. >> Now you know. >> I thought that was dowo. Honestly, I of ways. Man of culture, huh? >> Exactly. Exactly. No, it's because of my

[4:05:57] uh uh here's a here's a random NBA player for the morning. Uh, Rockets ball aware. All right, that's that's how I know about the Q being CH thing. Um, next next thing I have on the docket for today, Warren Buffett uh continues to be

[4:06:12] involved with uh Bergkshire Hathaway. It it would seem uh that he said in an interview this morning that he initiated Berkshire Hathaway's investment into Apple in Q3 of last year or sorry, Alphabet, not Apple, Google/Alphabet.

[4:06:27] uh weren't Bergkshire Hathway put $4.3 billion dollars into Alphabet in Q3 of and said that it was him and not the new CEO Greg Ael who initiated that investment. So he is even though he you know on paper is a little more hands-off

[4:06:43] very hands-on. Could this move Bergkshire shares into today? I don't know. But certainly would restore a little bit of confidence him saying he's still doing some of the shot calling. >> Reminds me of Tom Brady. Thought he was

[4:06:55] gone. [laughter] He's like, "No, I got one more year in me." >> Yeah. I just Yeah. I imagine him, I don't know, playing playing golf, bored, and he's like, "Oh, man. I I miss it and I think Google's good right now." So,

[4:07:07] that's uh the swing that that Bergkshire Hathaway took on Alphabet. Uh as well as their investment into uh Google's $10 billion funding round for AI. Both of those spurred by by Warren Buffett himself, not the new CEO. So, he's still

[4:07:21] around. Well, he gets he gets per he gets um in these stocks at really good levels all the time. So, >> yes, no doubt about that. Google I know Google rallied when when they made that investment. I I remember

[4:07:34] that happening uh towards the end of the end of last year. if this has any bearing on on Bergkshire. Obviously, confidence is has waned a little bit from that stock since Warren Buffett's departure. Uh and so if

[4:07:47] he's saying, you know, it's it's still me, uh that that could that could certainly change things for them. >> Uh last big one, PayPal back in the reason. They've been in the headlines as of late. Another buyout offer. Payments

[4:08:00] firm Stripe uh and private equity company Adventurer to buy PayPal for $53 billion, which would price PayPal at $60.50 per share. That offer was submitted earlier this month. PayPal has yet to formally respond. Uh obviously as

[4:08:14] with every publicly traded company, PayPal has a fiduciary duty to issue a going to be receptive or not remains to be seen, but two uh two buyout offers for for PayPal already in in 2026. It's a it's a hot commodity.

[4:08:28] >> Yeah. And this is a significant move. We've got >> PayPal up over almost 10 bucks, which brings us above the gap down that we saw uh in February. So yeah, strong move here. And just just so you guys are

[4:08:42] aware, I don't know, we haven't really talked about or experienced a a buyout uh recently, but another interesting thing, so we we look at like crude oil backwardation. You can look at the

[4:08:54] what the sentiment is in the news headlines because if you see a gap up like this, let's say 56, and then you go to these options expirations and you go to like August and there's 10-cent bid, 10-centent bid on either side, then you

[4:09:08] go to January of 2028 and you see 10-cent bid, 10-centent bid, that implies that the market has concluded this is a done deal. So, like as this goes along, if if it does go along, let's say the buyout's at again $56 a

[4:09:21] share to get your confirmation, you would go to these options expirations, across the board. >> Yep. No, it's a good point. And to that >> Yep. No, it's a good point. And to that end, um you're seeing now uh companies

[4:09:34] come after payment situations like like this. I it makes me a little bit interested. I'm looking at comparable and fiserve s FISV. I might look at that and see if somebody eventually is going to buy that. The way

[4:09:47] you play a buyout, like you said, look at uh maybe cheap upside. Um I don't thing and it would be a duration play. I mean, this would definitely be further out. Maybe even I don't know, September to Jan. Uh we'll see. But I might end up

[4:10:01] putting on something in here just to see if maybe this gets a nice little buyout. out for 60 something bucks. That'd be nice. This thing's only 27 billion, by the way. This that buyout is 60 billion for PayPal. again if it goes through

[4:10:13] billion. So that's fairly cheap considering big gap that you're seeing on the chart here in November of last year when it was at about 30 billion. So I was too I

[4:10:26] hurting. I think I still might have those leaps open at close to worthless right now. Um I'm not entirely sure. Maybe I took this one off. Uh but yeah, but I think I think that's a aute observation if if people are are going

[4:10:40] Fizer is is one that would come up uh >> Yeah. And you're seeing a little bit of a bid, a little bit of a sympathy bid here. Uh they closed at 49 half yesterday. They're at 51 half right now.

[4:10:53] >> Yeah, I might buy some some Jam 2027 calls. >> Um something just coming across my desk here. Uh United Airlines is migrating. They're gonna start offering the ability to keep the middle seat open on long

[4:11:08] haul flights [laughter] on their new on their new Airbus. It's like a It's like a different tier. It's there's going to be a whole section where there's no table in the middle seat for customers to share and you pay a little bit more

[4:11:20] and there's nobody in the middle. So, there's something for you. Breaking news. I don't know. [laughter] >> Cut cut out the middle man with United hurt things, but I mean, >> can you tell this guy's in marketing or

[4:11:33] >> Yeah, I think I think all the all the new things these these airlines are increase comfort, get people to spend a little bit more money to serve things a it. Like I know a lot of them are are moving away from giving automatic access

[4:11:47] as a as an alle cart service that you can pay for. Like you can I know a lot are now doing uh you can buy first class tickets but just with no lounge access it. feel like it gives the consumer more mobility. I don't know. Competition's

[4:12:01] you. >> I mean, I'm old enough to remember even looked like uh first class seats and it was just two on each side. >> Now it's like they just cram as many people as they can.

[4:12:14] and it's it's been the most valuable card by far in terms of the perks you get. Yeah. United Club access. You can uh take economy seats, bring them to Premium Economy for free. So yeah, lots of competition and that that'll be good

[4:12:29] Competition across brands, but thank you Gus. Appreciate your time. We'll see you a little bit later today. Uh Ein selling off a little bit here. Up 17, down about we're going to take a quick 90 second break. Bring in Liz for the opening

[4:12:43] break. Bring in Liz for the opening bell. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[4:14:21] Minis and NASDAQ selling off just a tad, but they're still green on the day. E-in up 15, NASDAQ up 150. We've got about 15 minutes exactly until the equity open. We got Liz on the line. And Liz, uh, we've already put on some global trading

[4:14:37] hours, SPX trades. I took one off for $150 winner. Now, we need the market to tank for Jeral's. Oh, Jamal bearish in his. >> Yeah, it's uh you know, don't read into it too much. It's against the book.

[4:14:49] we make money. >> Mike's already in and out. Jamal's got goes up. We're It's just against the >> I get it. Good. How are you guys? I was having you on the break. So, the only we

[4:15:03] all, right? >> Tonight? Yeah. Yeah. for tonight um at the at the close and then it's more interesting uh tomorrow morning once >> What do you got tomorrow morning? >> Uh tomorrow morning we got uh wait no

[4:15:17] that's Thursday. Uh tomorrow morning we got UNH, TSM, GE, uh Abbott for those who who care, US Bank, State Street. Um but I would say UNH and TSM are probably the ones I'm

[4:15:31] looking at the most. GE I'd like to sell V after. GV. It was a kind of a play month ago, but it just wasn't working. The stock kept moving way too much. the ball's a little elevated in here in the 40s, so I don't mind selling V after

[4:15:46] Netflix, too. >> Jamal, you referenced this before, but smart reference. Yes. >> Can you [laughter] >> can you Mike show how you got to this list for people that are just joining

[4:15:59] other day in a meeting. We have the earnings on here as well. And I could easily go and look, but I like to ask you guys. It's easier. [laughter] >> Yeah. So, you just go to the watch list tab right here. Uh this vertical bar in

[4:16:13] between the trading platform and the watch list on the left is where you can different things, but yep. >> Yeah, go to the watch list. And then we have a ton of uh preset watch lists, but this one specifically is under the

[4:16:27] earnings. You can look at tasty earnings as well. kind of more of a a handpicked list, but all earnings and then just change the time frame uh sorting here. Earnings at up arrow is going to give you the most recent earnings. And then

[4:16:42] if you see the arrow before to the left of the bell, that means before the market opens. To the right of the bell means after the market closes. Um so here. I like to look at like market indices in the morning uh on the open,

[4:16:57] see what's moving in the NASDAQ 100, S&P 100. But for trade ideas, you can also look at uh where is the Oh, it's under tasty. Yeah, 52- week near high, 52- week near low. So, if

[4:17:12] you're looking for, let's say you're you're bullish on the the overall S&Ps, you can look at the Tasty watch list, 52- week near low. If you're looking at for bullish opportunities, that'll pull products that are within 5% of their 52-

[4:17:25] week low. And then for the high, 52- week near high, the same story, within 5% of their 52- week high. And then you can look at all these other ones, too. >> there's a lot of stuff in those watch lists, which is pretty. And then you can

[4:17:39] that when I'm looking for something to do. I'll sort by low or high and then here? >> Yep. Um, and we were talking about correlation and dispersion, too. If you have core spy, that'll pull the

[4:17:53] correlation that you see uh in the overview tab as well when you're looking at stuff. So, if you're looking at bullish bearish uh things to get on, you can see the the three-month correlation to spy right here.

[4:18:06] Perfect. No, I like it. And the kids these days have everything. Um, so out of spy. Do you know what I find fascinating? I'm just going to give this is kind of what I'm looking at overnight now that we can. So if you go can you go

[4:18:19] to SPX for me Mike and go to the zero day the number one leader on the board. it could change. The number one leader on the board in the calls is 7600

[4:18:34] today. So the open interest is 6,000 but already 57 5700 have traded in in >> What about to the downside? to the downside the put leader um 75 7550

[4:18:46] >> 7550 so like right at the monies and what I find fascinating and I'm doing my pre-market and then I'm also looking at the end of the day and I said this when I was at the SIBO it's almost like a gravitational pull to these to the big

[4:19:00] numbers where lots of volume is trading so we watch I watched it yesterday the calls yesterday it was 7550 was the number one on the board and it it it closed what 755047 or something like that So, it's been an interesting watch

[4:19:13] for me in the morning to see. And they're in early. Like it's 4:00 and >> Yeah. >> 5:00. I can't say [clears throat] four [laughter] >> Yeah, we're definitely seeing uh a pull

[4:19:28] higher like even just the general open interest on the downside. Uh outside of the 7550 like you mentioned, you got 1K 800 like there's not much volume here or open interest and then you look at the upside and it's multiples. uh across the

[4:19:41] board, especially as you go further out. >> And I know it's been lighter volume, but even yesterday, the the 7550 calls at the end of the day had about 200,000 options that were traded, which is insane in a zero day. Meaning that they

[4:19:54] about a thousand. If we were going to do that same thing today, if you go to the 7,600, just just kind of saying that 6,000 have traded right now, but by the end of the day, it was like 191,000 had traded. It was insane. So the these are

[4:20:07] for options that have no you no real open interest 6,000 which is nothing than to have almost you know 190,000 at the end of the day. These are big >> Yeah. >> Yeah.

[4:20:19] >> And it's been a it's been a rise in the zero day uh for sure the near-term S&P options. I mean it's it's been astronomical growth and I think it's all just a precursor to everything being instant and and readily available. I

[4:20:33] mean that that is the that's what we wanted to see from an accessibility standpoint, but also like pattern day trading rule going away with day trade power. Now you've got the rise in zero day options. Now you've got global

[4:20:46] trading hours for indices. Soon you'll have global trading hours for equities. It's just the it's the future of what the what we're expecting here. everything these days. >> They have everything these days, Jamal.

[4:20:58] And I was laughing when you were talking about you remember coach with two seats you're aging yourself there." [laughter] >> Yeah, I I I remember it. I remember it. What I remember is seeing a picture of me and my brother on a plane as a kid.

[4:21:13] growing up, u my my parents got divorced when we were little and so we used to fly back and forth between our parents and um I just remember that like I've minute, is that two big seats right next to each other?" Like that doesn't exist

[4:21:27] >> No, it does not. >> Unless you [laughter] pay for it, like they're heading towards clearly. I mean, they're getting to the point where look, comfort, right? I mean, honestly, is what they're they're relying on. And so,

[4:21:41] this whole cramming sardines in at some point. >> Now, that being said, I'm bullish United because I, as Mike, am a United girly, and I love the United club. I love the United lounge. I love free procco. It's

[4:21:54] United lounge. I love free procco. It's not free, but you know what? [laughter] What's going on? What's the word? >> So, in full disclosure, it's funny because we were, you said this is the only notable one. This if when I play

[4:22:07] not airlines in sectors. I have a tendency to pick a favorite. Chinese there's no correlation to Baba. But in airlines, I'm always trading you all product. So, I'll probably do a bullish diagonal here. Like, you know, I'll lie

[4:22:23] it for earnings where I'll probably sell the two-day and maybe buy the 9-day or the 16- day, sell the at the expected move and buy the buy the by the at the out in time. >> I just I love how emotional she is about

[4:22:36] her trading. You know what I mean? Like [laughter] >> Come on. You got to have a good story. Never let the truth [laughter] get in heard. >> Yeah. I I totally like it. And I think

[4:22:49] uh if you just do like the comparison of these two options, August I think is viable. September you're paying a little bit more, but you have a little bit less and you've got twice the amount of time.

[4:23:02] So just depends on the setup. But yeah, long August like the 120s right at the money and then in the 2-day you could sell the 127, 128, 129. Like all these open they'll be liquid. >> Yeah, they're still pretty premium.

[4:23:16] the 130s. I didn't expect to get, you know, even close to that for getting >> Yeah. Well, it's a trip. Let's, you know, pull up the chart. Um, go to 72, uh, you know, July 2nd.

[4:23:30] >> Yeah. >> Yep. See 72 and then go to crude 72. I It literally started [laughter] >> exact same time. So, you wonder if going on with oil. I mean, obviously, they got to mention it. I wonder if

[4:23:45] doesn't seem to be worried about these inflation numbers we've been getting about more about what they're going to say on their earnings than um anything else. >> Yes. Yes. But but once again I don't

[4:23:58] mind being in the airlines. It's a it's a $120 product right now. It's got a 43 IVR. It's something that I'll lean towards. Now American Airlines is always a lot cheaper. Always a lot cheaper. But I I do prefer to play in the United

[4:24:11] I can make a case for getting long this whether I sell a put or any way, shape, >> there you go. >> Yeah, [laughter] it's probably the play. oil and you haven't gotten out of it yet?

[4:24:25] >> Okay. [laughter] All right. >> I just got in two days ago. >> Yeah. No, I wasn't in the bottom. I I just I literally got in. I'm in for the see. >> Poor Kakio was sweating it for the last

[4:24:39] two weeks. [laughter] He pulled you into his trade issue, >> I I I I mean, I kind of felt like a counselor sometimes. We I every day I >> Well, let me tell you, if it keeps going up, he's really going to be annoyed.

[4:24:52] >> I think I think he did get out of a lot of his position to that rally. him a lot, I'm telling you how this goes. If it keeps going up, he's going goes. If it keeps going up, he's going to be like annoyed. [laughter]

[4:25:05] >> Yeah. Yeah. >> That's what they said. about their positions. Okay. What else did you guys do this morning? So, SPX in >> We're making a shopping list. I'm making a shopping list of different trades. Um,

[4:25:18] >> Don't you want to get into them early? Don't you wish we could trade Caterpillar right now, but you can't? >> I mean, we can't. [laughter] >> Yeah. >> Um, yeah, it's interesting to see. I

[4:25:31] >> you know what? Honestly, no. I don't want that. I don't want to trade Caterpillar right now. I I like the waiting. I like the waiting and I like there's a finite time as far as individual names, you know, ES and and

[4:25:43] and SPX, that's great, you know, trading the main market. I love that the the individual. You know how you know what a headache that would be? I mean, >> it's coming. These headaches are coming. >> If a CEO does something overnight,

[4:25:56] >> And that's when they're going to do things. If I were CEO of a company and I >> That's usually when they do. And that's I don't feel like trading the stock at anyways, >> I really do have a I have a theory that

[4:26:09] comes out Monday morning before the market opens, like you're trying to hide >> oh, Friday. No, Friday. Friday. >> Friday. It's Friday. I agree with Jamal. It's Friday after the close. When there's any like, huh?

[4:26:23] that in there. Don't worry about this. Go away. Go go go hang out with your >> I'm surprised IBM didn't come out with this news on Friday. I bet there was Friday. Why Why do you do that on a Tuesday? like what are you thinking?

[4:26:36] >> But but I do think that that I think this is a this is a head fake. I think their earnings are going to be amazing. >> I agree with you. That's why I sold the >> Yeah, I think I really think this is >> Yeah, this is a pretty clean situation

[4:26:51] here. The last time we saw this level was in May point and we're we're already bouncing about three points from this level here. So, we're implied to open around 220. It'd be crazy if we saw this liquidation

[4:27:04] and then we just went straight back up. >> Yeah, it's happened before. >> I mean, stranger things have happened, right? >> Yeah, >> that was that was a that was a crazy

[4:27:18] >> It dropped from from six down to four and then just immediately filled the gap over the next three months. >> Copper futures is a big future, too, it? >> Yeah, it's it's a big one. Yeah,

[4:27:31] a stock. >> Yeah, this thing's a $160,000 product. >> You use what stock, Liz? >> COPX. It's a copper miner. >> I use copper minor company. Um, it's something This is God, I feel like I'm

[4:27:45] confessing all my sins. This is some I always have copper. I like I said, I'm a metal person, so I always have copper, gold, silver in my IRA, so I use COPX as >> Oh, okay. You don't use FCX? What about FCX? Um, I like FCX, but that's

[4:27:59] >> Everything. >> That's more That's more of a basket, before, but >> CCO is another one. Southern Copper Corporation. Used to trade both of those a lot. I

[4:28:12] used to really trade a lot of different metals like 08, 09, 2010. BHP was another one. Names are just coming back now. heard. >> I tell you something. This stock used to

[4:28:26] tech stock. >> Do you know uh what I'm noticing right says it's hard to borrow, which that's something that people should keep an eye on. Under BHP, where the symbol is, it says hard to borrow.

[4:28:39] >> Mhm. >> Yeah. That means it that means it is stock. >> Call GS and get some locate. Liz, >> what' you say? >> Said call GS and get some locate. We

[4:28:52] >> [laughter] >> 30 seconds to the bell here. Uh E- Minis are picking up a little bit of a bid here. Up 20. NASDAQ's chopping around. Um what do you think? What what do we feel on the open? Do we think we're

[4:29:05] going to just rip higher or sell off from these this recent rally? >> Oh, today is not a sell-off day. In my opinion, today is not a sell-off day. I'm saying and I'm I'm making the bold call and I've got a 20% chance of being

[4:29:17] right because I look at the delta. I am going. We will touch the uh 6,500 >> or the the S&P that the big number >> 3600 >> 7600 today. >> Well, it's moving out the gate.

[4:29:33] >> Really? >> Wait, is Bitcoin up today? >> What's going on? What's going on in these uh Bitcoin?

[4:29:46] >> I'm asking for a friend. I've got a lot of Bitcoin products. [laughter] around these lows. It's near the recent 65K. Um but yeah, MSTR back over 100 like

[4:30:00] Jamal said. I haven't traded this really all too much, but I do have this IBIT position. Uh I've got the 100 shares that I acquired at 65, but collected over three grand in premium last year. So my basis is at 35 there. trying to

[4:30:16] get another 100 shares at 35 to really just drop that basis down uh even more dramatically. But I have this Super Bowl setup. Sold a 35 put to buy two 45 calls >> Okay, come on. I got to We got to be honest here, Mike. You don't want

[4:30:31] keep the premium. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, yes, I would love to keep the premium, but if I take the shares, my basis at 65 drops to 50 and I

[4:30:43] still have already collected all that that value 3K. So, the nice thing if I take the shares, I can just start selling two calls against my 200 shares and keep piling on the credits. But, yeah, I mean, this was the the year-long

[4:30:55] trade of last year. So, yeah, I have $3,500 in premium collected all in all. So, we're we're still looking good. Even at these low low levels in IBIT, I'm still below my break even is below the current price with a ton of upside

[4:31:08] possibility here, too. So, I I like where we're at. said we were going to become crypto bros? We could still do it. It >> What date that I said? Did I say that? >> Bitcoin was at a low. You're like,

[4:31:20] >> Yeah, I said it's not too late. Yes. I said it's it's not too late. You can actually bullish. >> Yeah, >> Yeah. Uh Frankie says about 200,000 Smoos have traded in the first minute

[4:31:33] in the chat about the game today. About I'm sorry, not game, excuse me, match. Yes. Uh on the pitch uh today about England and Argentina. He put a little so far say England. England and Argentina play today. Don't forget

[4:31:49] field and the FIFA. >> Why? [laughter] >> They have an extra person. >> It's just like any other sport. >> That's the rumor. It's the rumor. It's

[4:32:04] the rumor. Especially after the last like couple games. But we'll see. >> just watch. You have you watch Have you ever see it? And like Messi will go and somebody gets a yellow card. It's like, wait, how'd that happen?

[4:32:16] >> It's like uh at a Kansas City game when Taylor Swift's there. If anyone just touches Travis Kelce, roughing roughing the rough [laughter] interference immediately roughing the passer. all the calls

[4:32:29] >> immediately. [laughter] So, so far it looks like uh I don't see what's what's moving, right? What's the push and pull? Is it the semis? Is it the the the uh consumer staples and and software? It's hard to tell right

[4:32:42] now actually. Like semies aren't like down by and large. Um doesn't nothing is nothing is the big mover on the board today, right? So some days you come in the story is something else. There's nothing. There's nothing

[4:32:56] >> This is the first day I feel like I've seen this where >> this is this is like uh I I'm I'm hearing TP in my ear. This is uh if you look at the watch this NASDAQ 100, there's a little bit of red but a lot of

[4:33:10] green. And uh >> is that your best TP impression? >> Yeah. Yeah. [laughter] For now, I got to hone it. But yeah, to the upside, we're seeing a lot more 2enters and and uh beyond. PayPal's up 14% on buyout news.

[4:33:25] But yeah, lots of twoenters, lots of close to twoenters, but then to the downside, your your biggest selloff is SanDisk at 4%, but everything else is within 1%. Uh, so you can see there's some strength to the upside, some broad

[4:33:38] strength to the upside in the NASDAQ 100. If we pop over to the S&P 100, you've got UNH down a little bit, down 2%, 1%, only a handful of names over 1% to the downside. And then a lot of green, a lot of companies over 2%, a lot

[4:33:53] of companies over 1%. So kind of pretty broad strength here. Uh lifting this market higher as the E- Minis hit 30 up 30 for the first time this session. >> So and what do you think about this upcoming earnings season you guys? Like

[4:34:07] it's everything is awesome, everything is cool when you're part of a team, the go up or do you think this is going to be a tale of two cities earning season? be a tale of two cities earning season? I think it's setting up for a rally. Uh,

[4:34:22] reason that you have, Liz, where like volatility is down. The vault futures are in a steep contango here. The the end contracts just went below 17, but this is over a point of contango between the N and the Q and over a point of

[4:34:36] contango between the Q and the U. So, the contango in the market is a sign for calm. Of course, you got the VIX creeping below uh below 16 and >> Yeah. I just think like but it's it is an interesting question

[4:34:52] these earnings announcements and these companies have to just destroy these numbers and basically say we're sold out until 2027 2028. I remember Nvidia one time Jensen Hong was he came to the mic and was like huffing and puffing I got

[4:35:06] to get back. We're sold out. We're sold out. Everything's great. So that's like got to hear if we're going to rip higher in some of these stocks. >> Yeah. >> So, um and were you guys doing

[4:35:20] morning? >> Uh we were looking at >> um you know the one thing I I want I I think it could could be positive. Again, of money. I think the one thing we have to watch out for is the crowded nature

[4:35:34] of the trade. Um, and if we could cue up uh the uh other chart uh that we were one thing that we have to just pay attention to the crowded nature of the

[4:35:46] activity in a lot of these tech stocks. Uh this is from our friends at the SIBO got to watch out for. Again, that's what led to some of the little bit of selloff we saw at uh in June. And um that's the one thing, you know, again, I'm I'm long

[4:36:01] might clean some of it up heading into the big earnings in two weeks. We were Microsoft, just to see how the reaction happens cuz I don't want to be too exposed to it. Um cuz I'm collecting a lot right now. Like my extrinsic is like

[4:36:15] quite a bit. But that's the one thing I worry about. cleaning up right before earnings and jump you can jump back in immediately >> Indeed. Indeed. >> SPOS are up 33 heading towards 7,600 on

[4:36:29] >> We love it. Big rally. >> Big rally. Uh yeah, crazy craziness here. If you put on a Super Bowl, you're looking good. Uh but a lot of this premium is it's we're still inside the expected move, but I think S&P uh the

[4:36:45] expected move, but I think S&P uh the one day move here is only 21 points now. So they zapped a lot of the premium. So I think a lot of neutral traders are probably benefiting from this as well. Um but yeah, Liz, we

[4:36:58] appreciate your time. We will see you a little bit later today, but uh >> Yeah, absolutely. Good day. >> We got the E- Minis up 32, NASDAQ up second break. We got a special guest on the other side of it. You're watching

[4:37:10] the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.

[4:37:25] taking off strategies. That's also pretty easy. What do you do with everything in between? Well, in our options crash course strategy series, the winners. We're going to show you how to handle the losers. But most

[4:37:38] importantly, we're going to show you how to handle everything in between with reference points. [music] We'll see you guys there.

[4:38:00] In the world of investing, a beast lurks between the numbers. sidelines, but others saddle up [music] and ride that one ton rowdy ribeye for

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[4:38:25] What is theta? Options lose part of their value over time as they get closer to expiration. That's why they're called wasting assets. Theta is how fast the options value changes in a day, not taking any other factors into account.

[4:38:39] Way far out, an options price doesn't change as much as time passes. But at about 60 days till expiration, [music] the time part of the options price starts falling. And at around 45 days to expiration, it starts dropping much

[4:38:51] faster. If you bought an option, you'll feel time to gay pushing down on that If you sold the option though, time is on your side and keeping the credit from the opening trade becomes more likely. Even though options lose their value

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[4:40:17] trade like a trader? [music] Tasty Trade. What's up, Tasty Nation? We are back. E-in NASDAQ selling off a tad here. E-

[4:40:30] mini only up 23. NASDAQ has been cut in half. only up 55. We'll see what the rest of the market has for us today. Uh but my name is Mike. I'm here with Jamal Likenfeld, on the line. Mark, how you doing?

[4:40:44] >> I'm doing great. How you doing, guys? >> Fantastic. Fantastic. What are you looking at this fine morning? >> Well, uh you know, a sector that I've been looking at for a few days now that really has me excited and it's something

[4:40:57] talking about. But it's it's not as sexy as semiconductors and AI. Uh but it's insurance. The insurance sector is doing really really well right now. Not

[4:41:09] surprising considering that interest rates are going higher and insurance companies simply make more money when interest rates go higher. They take the money that you send them for premiums and they invest it in in uh you know

[4:41:22] interestbearing uh instruments. And so higher interest rates simply mean they make more money. They don't pay out more money to you when you make a claim. It's not like your your, you know, $500,000 life

[4:41:34] insurance policy suddenly pays $550 if you have a claim or or your house burns down. You don't get more money. Uh but they're making more money. And so the and and you can see you just showed the

[4:41:46] chart of the KIE. That's the insurance ETF. And it's been in a in a long base for about two years. Spiked up in the last couple of weeks. And so just from a a fundamental and technical uh perspective, I think this sector has

[4:42:01] a lot further to run. >> Yeah, it's been in this channel like you said since I we'll call it November, October of 2024. It's been in this 55 to 60 range and we finally had this breakout above uh the current market.

[4:42:15] And yeah, it's it is an interesting thought like when you think about uh insurance companies, they operate very similar to Tasty Trade options traders. collecting that premium, you're assuming the risk, and you assume that over time

[4:42:30] your premiums collected offset that risk, but it's a nice kicker when you you're collecting a 4% interest rate on top of your your huge amounts of of capital that you've got on hand. >> Yeah, absolutely. And you know, speaking

[4:42:44] of collecting money, many of the insurance companies do uh pay a particularly high dividend, but you know, there's a little something that these stocks if you're if you're holding the actual uh equities instead of

[4:42:57] options. Um but what I also like about the sector is it's just not being talked about. You know, it's very quietly rising. Uh flying very much under the radar. So, I think eventually uh it's going to get some notoriety just like

[4:43:12] the financials are. I mean, right now some of the the big financials, the the giant banks are certainly getting attention, but I I really think this one is kind of sneaking under the radar and and it's a place that you can still get

[4:43:24] in a little bit early before everyone notices it. >> It's not being talked about at all, unlike a sector that uh is being talked you talked about uh you and I talked about a couple of months ago when we had

[4:43:37] an interview was Oracle in that sector. And are you still worried about debt in that whole sector as far as related to AI and the bond sales etc.? >> Yeah, absolutely. I mean the amount of debt that has been issued in the sector

[4:43:50] debt that has been issued in the sector is uh is is really phenomenal. I mean, right now you've got, I think in the last last few months, uh, there have last last few months, uh, there have been about $25 billion in bonds issued

[4:44:03] been about $25 billion in bonds issued by Alphabet, um, 25 billion by Oracle. I mean, there is just a tremendous amount of debt being taken on by the sector. And you know, if you look back through history at some of the major crashes,

[4:44:17] you know, the dotcom boom wasn't really a debtfueled crash because a lot of those companies were just was just kind of garbage companies. But a lot of the the the real busts, you know, going back a century or more, the railroads, the

[4:44:31] autos, radio, uh these were giant bubbles just like we saw in in early 2000, the dotcoms and we're starting to see now. and they were th those bubbles collapsed because of debt. And I think that's what we're we're going to see

[4:44:46] Alphabet is about to go out of business anytime soon, but the amount of debt is really really concerning. The six really really concerning. The six hyperscalers have issued $244 billion in

[4:44:59] debt this year. Uh, and it it's, you know, I do think history is going to that's, you know, I'm not calling for a crash in two weeks or or necessarily even two years. I don't know what inning we're in, but this has a very very

[4:45:14] familiar pattern to past crashes. and and it it's really no surprise, you so companies are going to do what that what they feel is necessary to be the >> [snorts] >> uh taking on massive amounts of debt

[4:45:29] usually does not pay out. >> I mean, this Mark Licken fell is a nice basically where it is now. It took off as you saw and now it's right back down. He could have had a chance to cheerlead, but he was really a nice guy about it.

[4:45:42] >> Hey, I mean, yeah, it's going to be interesting. I think we're kind of at this turning point where uh the banks have already reported earnings and uh or most of them I should say and that is always the indicator that we are on the

[4:45:56] announcements and a lot of these earnings and to your point I think uh if increasing debt we're increasing capex maybe that's a warning sign and maybe we

[4:46:09] report good numbers I mean a lot of these companies companies are just going to have record numbers as they as you would expect. We've been seeing that in a lot of these bigname tech stocks. But >> yeah, I think uh to your point that this

[4:46:23] is one of those warning signs where if you are bearish or if you have a bearish lean in the future, this is clearly uh something to keep an eye on. necessarily bearish on all the hyperscalers

[4:46:37] and the whole sector. Oracle in particular I am because not only do they have massive amounts of debt uh but they are bleeding cash. Uh they they a lot had 24 billion I believe in negative cash flow last year. Uh next year the

[4:46:53] cash flow last year. Uh next year the estimate went from -24 billion to -45 billion. Uh but and the most important reason I'm so bearish on Oracle is besides for the massive amount of debt is their offbalance sheet obligations.

[4:47:05] is their offbalance sheet obligations. So they have uh about uh $248 billion in offbalance sheet obligations in the form of leases for these data centers. Now of leases for these data centers. Now they are backed by backlog from AI

[4:47:20] companies like OpenAI, particularly OpenAI, they're their largest customer by far. But what happens if Open AI can't pay their bill? And the CFO of OpenAI recently said that she is very concerned that revenue is not going to

[4:47:36] reach their target. So if suddenly Open AAI can't pay their bill, Oracle has these lease obligations that they are obligated, legally obligated to pay. massive debt. They don't have the cash to cover it. Uh you know, they've really

[4:47:52] gone all in on AI. And I think this is going to end very very badly. I think we're in the very very early stages of this stock collapsing from a technical perspective. Uh it has now broken support. So I I think the next stop is

[4:48:05] support. So I I think the next stop is is about $99 in the near term. Um but I fundamental reasons could fall all the way down to let's say $20 because uh of negative cash flow, which is not expected to improve anytime soon, and

[4:48:20] these off balance sheet obligations. If if OpenAI runs into any trouble, uh, >> I mean, I hear you, but I think Open AI is too big to fail, honestly. I I think they'll they'll find a way to get some type of financing. But, as we said, is

[4:48:34] of these names? I mean, again, we've got some great names that have come to same sector per se, but like the SpaceX Highix. Um, are there any of these names that you're interested in at all? These

[4:48:47] tech names? Yeah, I mean, you know, this is this is not going to be uh the biggest surprise, but Nvidia, I mean, it's the 800 pound gorilla, and when you look at their their valuation, it's really not that crazy. If they can hit

[4:48:59] their targets or Wall Street's targets, it's trading at about 16 times 2028 it's trading at about 16 times 2028 earnings. Uh that's really not uh not unreasonable at all as long as they can hit it. Uh and of any company that

[4:49:14] should succeed, I would assume it will be Nvidia. But I also, you know, Microsoft, Alphabet, these are also 800 pound gorillas. So, I'm really not sticking my neck out too far here. Um, but uh, so I think those are going to be

[4:49:27] the winners. But I do think you need to be really careful about some of the the companies like Oracle and any others that are just bleeding cash right now because the cash flow is really king. As long as you have the cash flow to

[4:49:39] service your debt, then that's fine. Uh, but if you don't, uh, this could end quite badly. >> Yeah. Absolutely. phenomenal stuff. Uh, interesting things about this is everything's so intertwined. Like all

[4:49:52] each other in some way. Like you look at Nvidia and yes, Nvidia has a ton of capital, a huge cap uh market cap, but if you look at their deals, it's it's other companies. So, it's like that that I think could be one of those uh things

[4:50:08] these companies are intertwined. They're all failing now. And that's that could be the future catalyst for uh some kind of movement. But it's it's ominous because the markets are uh Nasdaq actually just ticked red. But the

[4:50:21] volatility futures are basically saying nothing to see here. Uh but we know that >> Right. >> And you bring up an excellent point because right now it's not a problem. If this all were to unwind kind of the way

[4:50:34] you described, I think we would look back and say, "Oh yeah, that was these intertwined deals. Of course it was going to end that way. I'm not saying it it will. Um but I think if it does, if that scenario plays out, we

[4:50:47] course." >> Absolutely. Mark, appreciate your time. That was a great great segment. Uh and hopefully we'll see you again soon. >> Absolutely. Yeah. NASDAQ just ticked red, down 24 now. E- mini sliding a bit,

[4:51:02] down uh only up 11. We're seeing a little divergence there, but it feels like it might be one of those days where uh we slowly slide, chop around. Uh but yeah, inside move so far, but uh we're going to take a quick 90 second break.

[4:51:17] We'll catch you on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Lab.

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[4:53:47] Jamal. We got E on the line live from the SIBO floor. And E, it sounds like some things are flying around there. We're hearing some hearing some noise. hear it through the earpiece right here. No, a lot of movement today. Looks like

[4:54:03] we got a morning selloff so far. I'm hoping that SPX and SP

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[5:02:35] >> When you are assigned, you are ultimately short an option that's in the money and the counterparty has the ability to exercise that option. So, if you are assigned, it means your option against your will ultimately has turned

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[5:05:02] >> We're back. It's still Wednesday, July 15th, 2026. You're watching Futures 30 I'm your host, Chris Veu. He's your co-host, ISP. Ilia, uh, I can't make

[5:05:14] you told me that oil was down, yields were down. Uh, PPI was soft, rate hike odds were down, I'd be looking at a little bit more than an S&P 500 that's barely up 10 points right now with less than 900,000 contracts traded today.

[5:05:31] Well, the meltdown in uh the market's favorite semiconductor story continues against the backdrop of a whole lot of noise in other places. And it seems like the market is just kind of confused. It's just looking at this and going,

[5:05:46] >> Isn't it funny how semis are like down 10%, then the next few sessions they eight or nine total and then they take the elevator shaft right down again? >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, this is one of those things to like

[5:06:00] >> this is one of those math lessons you got to repeat sometimes where you go 8% got to repeat sometimes where you go 8% up then 8% down is not the is not an up then 8% down is not the is not an offsetting move. 8% up after 8% down is

[5:06:15] offsetting move. 8% up after 8% down is not an offsetting rally. >> You're net down. [snorts] So, that's where we find ourselves. S&P 500 is doing its best to keep me on tender hooks uh at 7600 Ilia where I still find

[5:06:29] myself sitting long an MEES contract right now. Um but just taking a step a brief overview of where the market stands from the futures perspective here. Volatility is just not going anywhere today. VXN the uh excuse me VXQ

[5:06:44] automatically type in VX on the platform sitting at 1825 which not for nothing this could be the cycle low close right now for this contract. So just as a point of reference today is not a day defined by this memory movement curating

[5:06:58] or provoking a significant volatility expansion. Even spotfix itself has slid expansion. Even spotfix itself has slid black back below 16. Uh I think just from your perspective IA mine too maybe the volatility connection can be drawn

[5:07:12] this morning. It feels like there's been a little bit of a release valve even if NASDAQ and the semis. We can put that in a separate bucket. The market across the board if it's bond if it's been gold if it's dollar volatility if it's stock

[5:07:26] market volatility since the PPI came out all of it has come in. There is a sigh of relief here around that report. Is it a long-term cyber relief or is on the calendar. We'll wait to see next month.

[5:07:41] >> There's a risk here and I think we were talking about this yesterday and I think it it very much continues to be this story. There's a risk here that both the Fed and the markets are fighting the last war. And this is why the situation

[5:07:58] with retail sales and consumer confidence later in the week is going to be so interesting. Inflation was down both CPI and PPI. It was down for explainable reasons having to do with a sell off in oil. And when you look at

[5:08:13] sell off in oil. And when you look at the stuff that's going on in services, the stuff that's going on in services, not the energy component itself, you still get the sense that a lot of the things that have been easing there

[5:08:25] things that have been easing there are the oil related things. And there's two things there. Of course, over the course of May and June, crude over the course of May and June, crude oil fell cumulatively more than 25%.

[5:08:38] oil fell cumulatively more than 25%. It was almost 9% in May and then almost 19% in June. So, this makes sense that this stuff energy related is dragging down inflation. the year onyear uh and the

[5:08:54] month- on-month especially uh considerations are going to be meaningfully different here. But the problem is that energy is just one part of the inflation story as we continuously hear now for two days from

[5:09:09] one Kevin Walsh who's been testifying. But of course we've seen that in the pharmacy minutes too. The Fed is concerned about AIdriven inflation. And the problem here has been the buildout is so vigorous.

[5:09:25] The investment component of the economy is so buoyant that it's generating inflation that's squeezing consumers. Consumption in the first quarter was so weak. The last few times that it's been that weak, the economy was shrinking.

[5:09:41] So this time we have this investment component to offset a weak consumer. But paradoxically, the more that investment component is growing and spinning and building, the more inflation it's throwing off and

[5:09:57] the more the consumer is squeezed. And that's before we get into oil. And so what you end up with is a situation where the Fed and the markets are going, "Ah, okay, here we go." And it seems like the problem is that

[5:10:13] the consumer is getting squeezed and the issue is going to be growth. The issue is going to be some sort of a consumer-led downturn because the investment. If the consumer were really to retrench, it's going to overwhelm

[5:10:27] to retrench, it's going to overwhelm this uh buildout boom and then some. >> The the consumer could retrench. And I I always go back, yes, it's the most always reminded of the key fact that we have never had a recession start in this

[5:10:40] country without a year-over-year decline in business investment. And right now, the business investment is booming. >> So, we may get to just like a really are getting squeezed, squeezed, squeezed while you're looking at fantastic

[5:10:53] earnings. And it's that further K-shaped economy where the capital owners are kind of just taking it on the chin. But Ilia, I want to talk about the curve stability in the stock market still just above 7600,

[5:11:07] noteworthy is what's happening in the short end of the curve as a guidepost and what's happening in those Fed funds expectations visa v the SR3 contract pricing we're talking about basically a 60% probability of two hikes this year.

[5:11:22] Now we've gotten back to a place where we're in the neighborhood of what uh 82% chance of a hike this year. just one. Um it's been a big reversal the past two sessions after CPI and PPI. What is this >> aggregated for December? You're at 97

[5:11:38] still. >> That's the different, right? Fed funds so slightly. >> Um high. I mean, this is the first time we've put in a meaningful bounce in

[5:11:50] >> these these hike odds coming off, if you will. Mhm. Uh >> surely that's got to be a relief valve for the market considering that we had been so concerned about the Fed hiking and Worsh has been rather hawkish

[5:12:04] >> I mean I I there's a great website that was put together by Joe Weisenthal um OddLots at Bloomberg. He's been playing around with some LLMs. It's called Fedlock. It uses AI to analyze the

[5:12:17] hawkishness or doubbishness of Fed speakers and the commutive amount of Fed speeches over time. And Worsh has been clocking in as exceptionally hawkish in >> Yes. >> So we're we're getting this kind of like

[5:12:31] interesting thing. The Fed is jaw boning for higher rates. Markets are giving you lower yields and inflation in the last two reports we have is not exactly few weeks of relief of inflation concerns unless oil goes haywire once

[5:12:44] more. >> Yeah. I mean, I think you're looking at a situation where the market clearly

[5:12:57] is trying to figure out how much it needs to be concerned about this. >> I mean, let's remember the bonds have been completely overtaken by the war basically since the thing began. Unlike stocks that had a small selloff and then

[5:13:12] >> Mhm. >> The situation in bonds has been about the war since Feb February, since late Feb February, early March. They really haven't looked back. It's been about that. And you you've seen some

[5:13:27] interesting dynamics here. Yesterday particular, you got the soft CPI number. The bonds tried to rally. Then Worsh came out and said all kinds of hawkish things and slammed them right back. You see that long wick on yesterday's ZB

[5:13:41] >> That's all after his commentary 10 a.m. Eastern onwards, >> right? So, he completely turned everyone's head. >> And today, we're trying to get the other way, but you can see it's much more

[5:13:54] way, but you can see it's much more timid. PPI is secondary to CPI as far as um surprise factor. Walsh is again testifying to today, but he's not saying anything that's meaningfully different, at least in

[5:14:08] terms of tone versus yesterday. So you you you get a little bit of a stayed continuation, but it's much more balanced today. And arguably the balanced today. And arguably the breakdown in uh the long end is still

[5:14:22] >> That's kind of what I'm thinking here because if you look at ZN, it's actually outperforming ZB. >> Yes. So your you know your curve today >> Yes. So your you know your curve today uh odd little twist there at the end but

[5:14:35] to that point I mean I'm still sitting short um deltas here. I'm long the 11112 to expiration here in the fall account. It's lost a little bit of its value profit overnight because we moved back above uh where my short strike was Ilia.

[5:14:50] That said though I'm comfortable holding this. I'm not really enamored by this rally that we've seen here today. I figured after CPI and PPI, maybe we then again, what's my worldview? We're not going to get hikes, which means

[5:15:02] place, relatively speaking, which is conducive to more inflation and growth. And so, that's probably not going to be something that helps yields collapse at there's something really bad economics wise coming out. I just don't see it on

[5:15:15] Maybe retail sales, maybe jobless claims, but I don't know if that's going conversation right now. So bonds here today, right? We go this the V crush is why we're here. >> We were at what uh 30ish IVR 24 IVR in

[5:15:29] ZB up in the 30s in ZN in the notes. Today we're at negative0.9. that often, but when IVR is negative on the platform because that is a scale 0 to 100. When you're below zero or above 100, you're now 0.9% below the lowest

[5:15:45] volatility reading that we have seen over the past 52 weeks in our bonds. And that is that across the board, right? So VIX comes in, bond vault comes in. Uh stocks are trying to recover a little bit here, but we can go back to them

[5:15:58] past few days. Some of them have worked out, some of them have not. I'm still leaning long ES, of course. My ASML trade looked a lot better this morning when it was up 8% pre-market. Um that said, it's still a short put spread and

[5:16:12] so we are still very much comfortable above the short strikes 1680 right now. Um, as I've mentioned, one of the things that I like to do for the stock market more of this on air, so we're doing it more of it on air. Uh, I like to go

[5:16:25] through a technical scan every morning of stocks that fit my criteria of dip buying or rally selling. So, if you're below your onemon moving average but your 200, that may be a dip buying opportunity. And vice versa, if you're

[5:16:38] above your onemon moving average but below your 50 and below your 200, that's probably a sell to rally opportunity, right? Uh, ASML showed up on the SC screen yesterday and it showed up on the screen again today at a point when it

[5:16:50] >> They did and the earnings were really, really good. So, it opened up%. It gave bunch back. Nevertheless, what are we seeing here, Ilia? We're seeing a market that's still holding above its 50-day moving average and it's finding support

[5:17:03] in that area over the past week. So, uh, unlike Liz who was able to he she took a shorter duration trade. I think it was explicitly 2 days. I'm in at 37. So, she went home. I'm in this for a little while. As long as 1710 holds, I'm gonna

[5:17:17] stick with it because it doesn't need to go up a lot. It just kind of needs to get stuck here for a little while and a short put spread can become profitable. >> Yeah. I mean, I'm looking at this um market and any of these semiconductor

[5:17:31] market and any of these semiconductor names. Um, when you start to look at the way things are happening in these markets overnight, you're starting to see this kind of increasingly consistent thing where Asia comes in,

[5:17:47] thing where Asia comes in, melts down the AI >> I mean, that's such a fair that's a fair description. They're losing like seven% melting it to the ground. Um then

[5:18:03] Europe comes in and goes whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa and there's a kind of pause and then the US comes in and goes what do you mean that there's a meltdown waves uh waves its 10gallon hat spurs

[5:18:17] the seed and >> off we go and so that's left the markets in this kind of limbo I mean again you look at NASDAQ we haven't gone anywhere since May >> no we So the the whole thing's confused.

[5:18:32] The market's confused. It doesn't know what to do. And in fairness, overnight ASML had a nice report at the uh at the sort of touch point with the key markets,

[5:18:48] touch point with the key markets, Taiwan, Korea, um over in uh in Asia. That was good news. You're like, "Okay, this is fine." But you look at EWI and you go drop in the bucket. This thing is in

[5:19:03] full route mode. Uh yesterday you sent me u a story that I thought was disturbing um where >> where a uh South Korean um fin

[5:19:15] influencer apparently got stabbed >> um because he took a trade that cares somebody in the audience didn't like or didn't do well with and came like or didn't do well with and came back about it. Um, I mean this is these

[5:19:30] back about it. Um, I mean this is these are bubble meltdown types of headlines. This is how you you know [snorts] people who lose their house and jump off who lose their house and jump off buildings uh during the uh 1929 crash.

[5:19:44] This is sort of in that vein. This is that kind of behavior. And so you you look at this and you go, "Okay, this is starting to have the hallmarks of a starting to have the hallmarks of a bubble in the process of deflating." But

[5:19:59] bubble in the process of deflating." But in the US, it hasn't struck yet. >> Well, thank goodness that we're not South Koreans who trade on YouTube. Thank goodness we're only Americans >> and say and and say things like, "You

[5:20:12] should do X." All we say is, "Here's what I'm doing. You do you." you keep doing you IA which I know is leaning bearish here which for someone who short call spreads in the NASDAQ right now this kind of chop and churn

[5:20:27] for me as someone who put spreads here I rolled out my NASDAQ position through MNQ because I have a lot of I have just so much individual risk on right now going to start building into a bigger position. I really like the one lots to

[5:20:41] dip the toe and build up towards maybe five or six in M&Q, but short 2875 2850 put spread here. Again, Ilia, uh the concept has been for the past month, get It's worked for the past month every time we've had these little dips

[5:20:55] establishing new positions. And so I'm going to continue to do it. And you and I can talk all day long about how uh I'm wrong and you're wrong and we're both right like we've been over the past month as long as the chop continues. So

[5:21:08] month as long as the chop continues. So today's market um almost point4% we've liking something in this afternoon session. Finally Europe closed so we can 40 gallon hats as you said. >> Yeah.

[5:21:22] >> Okay. >> I mean listen uh the the eternal >> I mean listen uh the the eternal optimism of um the US economy is not to optimism of um the US economy is not to be derided. Um it's why we had the

[5:21:35] strongest rebound um the most dynamic one after co um it's why the US economy one after co um it's why the US economy still is by far outperforming everything

[5:21:47] still is by far outperforming everything else comparable. Um and so when you look else comparable. Um and so when you look at this you say okay at this you say okay business and S&P Global did a handful of

[5:21:59] um of surveys that I think was were were very telling. They had a business activity >> survey and then they had a sector performance survey and the disconnect there was fascinating. So business

[5:22:14] >> for sure. >> Oh my god. So happy all this capeex all this money slloshinging around. Phenomenal. Then you look at the sector

[5:22:27] performance and you go huh the core service sector is basically flat all the growth is hap happening elsewhere and you go well what's what

[5:22:39] what lives in core services oh yeah that's what the consumers buy >> do buy stuff in core services >> the the aggression of this move in um

[5:22:53] of one part of the economy the the optimism that's been powering, for example, the manufacturing PMI numbers where it's not even the data centers being built. It's that we're going to be building them. So, let's stock up on all

[5:23:07] the precursors. Any prefab we can do, let's do it now. And so, just stacking and stacking inventories and building and building input parts.

[5:23:19] That's not necessarily data centers going up. That's just everybody being happy that they're going to go up. But Meta is out here saying, "We have too much compute. We want to rent some." That's already a conversation about, do

[5:23:37] That's already a conversation about, do we need this much compute? Is all of this starting to look like the telecom's overbuild in 99 2000? Cuz it's starting to show all kinds of signs of that. Meta is leasing out compute

[5:23:50] because they it's no one's using their models right now for inference, build more? >> Well, they could now they can now spend more and build it and lease it to anthropic and chat GBT open AI.

[5:24:04] >> As I say, at the top of a at the top of a bubble, no narrative is no good. And that's sort of the nature of the thing. But when you look at the behavior happening around these markets, most importantly, where the

[5:24:19] markets, most importantly, where the NASDAQ goes, I don't care. I'm not going anywhere. I'm done. You're going to have to fundamentally change this story for me to get out of bed. What you're learning is that the market

[5:24:34] is saying, "Your story isn't good enough anymore. I've heard all of it. Show me earnings have been incredible. I mean, ASML is just the latest example. Market just doesn't care. >> Oh, yeah. I have a little bit more faith

[5:24:50] >> Who's surprised? >> Uh, new Amazon position today for me. Uh, high here. Downtrend. Boing. Bounce. Is this an Ilia? I bet you know what my answer is. Absolutely right. Right shoulder is

[5:25:05] higher than your left shoulder. Yeah, got to tag some space uh in the >> H that's okay. >> Right up against it here. >> Is that a zero DTE trade? So 37 days out short spread 235 230 long the call

[5:25:20] spread 285 290. Technically the measured move is only about 25 bucks. >> So it would call for 275. But in the event that it does get a rally, I think that we could squeeze both ends here. Uh so I'm content with that. But I like

[5:25:32] like it in the Mag Seven, which is what brought my attention here. to turn that corner that we've been watching here for a few days, and it They break out, they hold there, and they ride the oneweek average up into a

[5:25:46] final >> under that same support to turn >> Haters going to hate. Okay. Uh Apple, >> you want you want to confirm it, I'll do what I did with IGV. I mean, I have no problem buying down beat things while

[5:25:59] being bearish on the index. It's just not there. It's it's a really been so sensitive to all of these memory chip input cost increases, they passing it on to their consumers and they're also not overbuilding AI. Wonderful 66

[5:26:12] IVR here. So, Ilia, I mean, yeah, it's been a little bit of volatility in the broader market today. Um, we're back near the highs for the S&P 500 as we're some footing after the memory chip

[5:26:24] meltdown. DRAM itself, DRAM itself off 6.4% today. the big round till memory ETF components usual suspects or microns or uh western digital

[5:26:37] getting cooked today on upon all of this cover that later and I know you and I will be back together for overtime but right now Ilia looking at where the dollar is I know I have some euro

[5:26:51] positions that probably need to be reconsidered considering uh we're back to 115 right now and we're poking through or one month average. So poking through or one month average. So DXY through par through 115. It feels

[5:27:03] you are >> Yeah, I've been kind of flipping my positions. Um I've stayed long the Aussie, so that's working. I've stayed long the yen. That's working a little bit, but I've been flipping back and

[5:27:17] forth as the pound and the euro have been trying to find their direction. And been trying to find their direction. And today I flipped back uh long pounds because what a rally. um it looked like it was going to break down. Um I was

[5:27:30] long and then I was short and now I'm long again just over the course of uh second half of last week to this week. And this is sort of me trying to get the market to find its spot. Uh taking little losses and trying to dial down

[5:27:44] where the big move actually is. Might have to do it again with the euro too. really strong day. By the way, you had a funny comment before. So uh Andy Burnham who's likely to be the new UKPM announced today that Shabbana Mahmud is

[5:27:57] going to head the finance ministry which is a fiscally conservative option >> because the other person is Ed Mildan who is Ed Milliban is not >> it's not that he's it's not that Ed Miband is not conservative

[5:28:09] by the way it's just Ed Miband has has never met a political problem he hasn't found a way to b to bungle I mean he's been he's been a fixture a fixture of UK uh labor politics and

[5:28:26] >> for our entire lives it feels like >> I mean this man's opportunities have >> I mean this man's opportunities have been myriad and he hasn't really done anything with them so the gravity of the fiscal problem that the UK faces needs

[5:28:40] somebody who's going to get in there and have some better luck >> yeah 7612 here on ES 21 points higher now low volume still 916k it looks like we will get through a million contracts traded though you and and I are taking a

[5:28:52] brief break here though. We do have more great tasty live programming coming up next. Ilia, after us, where do we find ourselves landing? We got TP coming up theory to practice. Tim Knight, TP and I will be back for last call. You and I

[5:29:06] back for overtime and then you wrap up the day with macro money. So go get a quick drink, beverage, lunch if you need it. Then come back for Tom Preston TP it. Then come back for Tom Preston TP live trading next here on Tasty Live.

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[5:32:01] >> explain pot odds. >> Pot odds is my favorite term. Uh, but pot odds in the poker world or gambling world refers to having a greater payout

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[5:33:48] Tom Preston and let's uh jump into some trading. Let's see what's going on with the market. Um yeah, SPX right now is up 26 $26 again. All right, you cannot keep

[5:34:00] a good index down. Um they were rallying this morning. Um and then they sold off. I saw them a little while ago down uh 15 or 16 bucks and then they were right or 16 bucks and then they were right back up. Yeah. So um they they're

[5:34:14] they're loving um they're loving the market. Let's just take a look, just a quick look. I don't want to trade it uh for this session, but crude oil down a little bit, which is kind of interesting. The VIX typically down, and

[5:34:28] I sold a put spread in there, the 15 half, 16 half with about a week to go. So, it's now, let me show you really quickly what I look at um for the VIX. So, I'm short a put spread in here. And yes, the VIX cash itself is 1576. to the

[5:34:44] 16 and 12 put is in the money based on the cash but looking at the futures the cash but looking at the futures price. Um, if I click on the um 16 half.

[5:34:56] No, let me drag it up. 17. I can do it this way, too. Buy the 17 half um uh call. [clears throat] Sell the 17 out. But that's trading for 36 cents. Um

[5:35:08] But that's trading for 36 cents. Um uh credit. So, it's 36. 17US 36 is what? Uh 1664. So, it's right there. It's about This is still about 15 cents out of the money. I'd like it to be more out of the money,

[5:35:22] but it's not. That's the way it goes. I'm gonna hang on to this. Um, you know, I did a defined risk trade um simply that a continued rally is going to push this volatility even lower. But let's

[5:35:35] get into some symbols that I have loaded up and created my little cherry bomb watch list. By the way, that's very easy to do. you wanted to create a watch list, you just create a new watch list and name it and just start adding

[5:35:48] and name it and just start adding symbols like in here. So, I got a lot of feedback uh from folks wanting more of this wheel strategy type of stuff. And so, I was looking at um some symbols that could be good candidates for that.

[5:36:03] Um, one is one of one of the things going on right now is today is a lot of the um consumer stocks, the consumer non-dorables, the the um the you know

[5:36:15] non-dorables, the the um the you know the consu the whatever the food drugs the consu the whatever the food drugs things like that. Um so KHC craft hind and GIS general mills some of your favorite products in your in your pantry

[5:36:28] favorite products in your in your pantry or refrigerator or whatever you have. Um here's why. Um, let's look at KHC. Um, let's go to a chart just for the heck of it. KHC's been rallying off um

[5:36:41] heck of it. KHC's been rallying off um off some lows here. Uh, stocks up. But again, you know, it's a $25 stock and 76% IV ranked. When does it have earnings coming out? Earnings coming out on August uh 5th. So, the

[5:36:57] Let's check out the options for liquidity. Let's open up 37 days. They're pretty good. They're pretty good. Not not great, but they're good. So, it's, you know, three cents wide for going out 37 days for the 22 half puts.

[5:37:12] Why could this be a good candidate for the wheel, which is again to to emphasize or to describe again, it's selling an out of the money put? Um, if the stock goes up, uh, put expires worthless. You make money on that. But

[5:37:25] if the stock goes down, I take delivery of the stock. when the short put is in delivery of the stock and then what I would do is turn around sell calls against it that's the wheel it it's a basic strategy um one of the things

[5:37:39] basic strategy um one of the things about KHC craft highs is it has a 6.38% dividend yield uh and that's even with the stock up at 25 it was obviously would have been higher uh with the stock price lower but 6% it's pretty good um

[5:37:55] and if you're willing to take risk in KHC. If you think the stock might keep going higher, let's check the skew. Um volatility again is very high in uh KHC, volatility again is very high in uh KHC, relatively high. Um stocks at 2528.

[5:38:11] Let's say it's let's say it's 25. Um or do we have any individual strikes, single point strikes? Yeah, let's let's look at the

[5:38:27] let's look at um let's look at the um 30 days just to check the skew. So 2528 is right in between 25 and 25 half down a point from between 25 and 25 half down a point from 24 up a point from 25 half. So yeah it's

[5:38:42] the skew is pointed towards the upside in KHC. Um the volatility I kind of like these 23 days. The volatility is higher in here. 38%.

[5:38:56] Um and I'm getting Yeah. See, I can sell these these 24s. Uh let's go into the 37 days. They don't have the two and a half point strikes make it kind of screwy. Let's go in. Let's look at the the 30 day 30 days.

[5:39:12] The 24s. So if I sell these 24 puts, uh 30 days, get about again the markets are wide on this thing. Get about um the

[5:39:27] are wide on this thing. Get about um the price is about 39 40 bucks. How much am price is about 39 40 bucks. How much am I getting? If I take it down here I getting? If I take it down here to 23 days, I'm still getting, you know,

[5:39:40] to 23 days, I'm still getting, you know, about 35 cents for that. Let's Let's do this. Let's do some way. Let's do Let's do these these ones here. See if I get filled cuz this has earnings. So, you have to

[5:39:56] be willing to trade through earnings on this. But if I sell this 24 half, let's do the 24 halves. Um 46 cents. Let's check the metrics on the

[5:40:09] 78% probability making half of its $46 profit before expiration. Um, SKU is pointed towards the upside generates $158 of theta versus $430 of buying

[5:40:22] power. That's a pretty good ratio. Pretty good percentage. I'm going to send this off. 46 cents. See if I get filled. filled. Phil. Take a fill. Next one is um GIS

[5:40:35] General Mills. Let's check the situation again. Relatively high volatility, 49% IV rank, but no earnings that I can see coming out. Let's check the skew. 3675

[5:40:50] is pretty much right in between 35 and 37 1/2. Um down 2 1/2 to 32s, up 2 1/2 to the 40s. Yeah, I mean the skews pointed to the upside here, too. So

[5:41:03] again, it's you there's there are two and a half points between strikes kind of wide. Um it's more expensive than KHC. KHC is a cheaper stock. So the margin is going to be a little bit less, but again G G 30 36 bucks. It's still

[5:41:19] relatively low price. So if I sell those 35 puts, what am I getting? Decent liquidity. 113 uh contracts open interest in there. 60 cents is the mid

[5:41:31] price. And if I get that, it's got an 89 87% probability of making 50% of its max profit. So that's half of 60. That's 30 bucks to have an 87% chance of making 30

[5:41:43] bucks before expiration. Um, and that's usually clustered a little bit in usually clustered a little bit in between 1 and 15 18 days or so. So you might see that literally at about half between halfway between now and 37 days.

[5:41:59] So, if I sell this, I'm not going to do 60 with the mid price of 62. I'm not going to give them two ticks. Um, generating a$140 45 of theta, a little lower than the KHC put. Um, and a little bit higher margin requirement, buying

[5:42:15] numbers. Let's ship it and see. By the way, the dividend on, and this is my what I wanted to bring up too, the dividend in GIS is 6.69. So for the wheel strategy, it is not centered around collecting dividends,

[5:42:31] but the dividends help. The dividends add alpha, let's put it that way. So I'm add alpha, let's put it that way. So I'm going to offer this out at six. Let's try Let's try 61. Let's see if I get filled at 61. Ship it.

[5:42:46] See if they take my take my offer. No, they're not showing it yet. Come on. Probably sitting at a liquidity provider anyway. All right, that's working at 61. Maybe it'll get filled if um if it ticks up. Let's take a look. Uh let's take a

[5:43:01] look what the S&P is doing right now. Still up 28 bucks. All right, let's go Still up 28 bucks. All right, let's go back into the list and see what else we could trade today. Uh Netflix. Poor Netflix. Um Netflix has been having

[5:43:17] a tough time this year. Um it's just been getting whacked. It has earnings been getting whacked. It has earnings coming out uh tomorrow. coming out uh tomorrow. Oh, so the volatility is very high. 145

[5:43:29] with these two-day options. That's that's screaming. Let's check the skew. 7390 is the stock price. So, close to 74. Let's go down. Um, look at the liquidity in these things. 2 cents wide. 74 or Yeah, 74 down to 7070. Uh, $149.

[5:43:48] Go up four points to 78 61. Yeah, the skews pointed to the upside. Um, would I sell a naked put in here? Yeah, maybe. risk. You have to be willing to go through earnings tomorrow. Um,

[5:44:04] that's the way it is. And are you being rewarded for taking risk? Well, yeah, rewarded for taking risk? Well, yeah, with 145% volatility, you are. But let's let's just see if I buy buy a put, create a vertical. Yeah. See, this is

[5:44:18] this is a little bit more manageable. And I'm not saying Netflix is going to rally, but if you think it might, I think. So, look at the look at the think. So, look at the look at the numbers on this. If I just sell the 71

[5:44:31] put, okay, and I get filled at $1.81. okay, and I get filled at $1.81. Um, if make $68 in theta, have a forget the P50 number, 71% profit of expiring worthless. I make $68 versus $1,100 of

[5:44:47] buying power. Plus, I have open-ended risk on the downside. Netflix could be risk on the downside. Netflix could be down 10 bucks tomorrow. Okay, I or in two easily. Okay, so do I want to take that risk? Uh, not necessarily. I'm just

[5:45:00] going to turn into a vertical. Watch what my theta does. Goes from 68 bucks what my theta does. Goes from 68 bucks down to 10. But the margin requirement down to 10. But the margin requirement is is is also one basically one ninth of

[5:45:12] is is is also one basically one ninth of what it was. So yes, my my um uh theta is 17th. So the the theta of the vertical is about 17th of what it was for the for the short naked put. But the margin requirement, the buying power

[5:45:27] effect is about 1 nth. So the buying power effect dropped faster dropped, excuse me, more than the theta did. So I'm going to rout route this at 64. See if I get filled filled. Take a fill. That's just a hunch. Uh just an earnings

[5:45:41] trade. an earnings trade. I have, you know, mixed success with earnings. Um I use it mostly to stay engaged and something like Netflix. It's a big um you know, it's a big one coming out. So, hey, let's just let's just see

[5:45:55] how it goes. XLF um is the um is the financial ETF tracks um is the um is the financial ETF tracks bank stocks, things like that. Banks XLF has been has been rallying pretty pretty solidly here. Um the reason

[5:46:11] solidly here. Um the reason is stocks like Goldman Sachs spiking higher. Um what are the other big ones? Bank America. Bank America's rallying. What is Wells Fargo? That dog down relatively flat.

[5:46:26] Wells Fargo. Um what's another what are the other big stocks? JP Morgan. JP the other big stocks? JP Morgan. JP Morgan um again spiked higher today. Um they had earnings. Cityroup had earnings a couple days ago. That's down. Um, so

[5:46:43] XLF and there are a bunch of other little regional banks I think that comprise XLF. XLF has been rallying. Why would banks be rallying? Well, partly because even though the inflation

[5:46:56] numbers came out a little less hot than they expected to with the CPI numbers, they expected to with the CPI numbers, the the the the Fed funds are still the the the the Fed funds are still pricing in a rate increase, a 25 basis

[5:47:09] point increase at one of the upcoming FOMC meetings. Um the probability of a 50 point uh increase has dropped there. In other

[5:47:21] words, it's it's 25 points very high. 25 basis points very high. 50 point 50 basis points was higher last week for example was was higher last week for example was was higher like a you know 48 um% probability in

[5:47:35] some of those further um FOMC meetings. Now they're down to 30s 20s that sort of thing. So the probability of 50 point rate hike has dropped. However um if the market really thinks interest rates are going to go up that would help bank

[5:47:48] stocks. Why? because banks hold all our money and yes, they pay some of us put some of it out as uh as um as return whether it's CDs or savings accounts or whatever. Um but they keep a pretty big chunk of that themselves. So the higher

[5:48:04] the interest rates, the more money they make. Um if you think that's going to continue, let's check out XLF 37 days. Tight markets in here. That's that's pretty good. I know. Uh Frank Walsh who's on the handles all our chests and

[5:48:20] he's been trading forever. He knows more about liquidity than anybody but um these markets are pretty tight. Um 2 cents wide here. 2 cents wide there. Lots of open interest. Let's check the skew. Stocks trading at 5654.

[5:48:36] Uh 5654. That's right in between 56 and 57. Um, That's right in between 56 and 57. Um, if I go down, um, and the IV ranks 38% if I go down, um, and the IV ranks 38% 18% overall volatility. It's not bad for

[5:48:50] XLF. It's not great, but it's not bad. Um, if I go down uh, two points to 54, up two points to 59. Yeah, it's basically the skew is is even here. What

[5:49:04] How are the two-day options look? No, there's nothing in them. There's nothing in them. How about the five days? No, not enough premium in there. And this is this is what you develop as a

[5:49:17] trader. The more you look at this stuff, it it takes like half a second. Ah, no, no, no, no, no. Right. So, let's stick with the uh 37 days. I wonder if we can do an iron condor.

[5:49:31] an iron condor. So if I just did a short strangle the 55 um it's 5558 um it's 5558 5559 no excuse me 5459 if I did

[5:49:46] something like that um $800 of capital requirement not bad $2 of ADA not bad but what if I did this bought two points away that's a little bit more manageable um I collect Again, not a third of the width

[5:50:02] of the strikes, though. I don't like that. How about if I pull it in one strike. Do this. And this is just playing. This is what I do just to tweak stuff. 73 cents. That's not bad. I'm going to I'm

[5:50:16] going to try this trade. Um 7 collect 73 cents a credit. 69% probability making cents a credit. 69% probability making half that. So about what? $35 $36 before expiration generates 96 cents of Theta per day versus $127 max risk. Let's ship

[5:50:33] per day versus $127 max risk. Let's ship it and see what we get. Send. Bang. Phil. Take a fill on XLF. Let's go to the next candidate.

[5:50:45] to the next candidate. Core crap. Coreweave. Coreweave has been whacked. Um, does it have earnings coming out? Yeah, come they come out in coming out? Yeah, come they come out in August 11th. $78 stock. 100% volatility

[5:50:59] in here. Cororowave, whatever it does. It's some wacky AI. I don't know. You figure it out. I, as an option trader, I don't really care. Earnings, well, let's these things. The markets are wide, understandably.

[5:51:16] The markets are wide, understandably. filled on my um on my uh General Mills um Corewave. I was just looking at stocks that had big sell-offs today and the market. Yeah, the markets aren't

[5:51:33] bad. I don't want to trade earn through earnings here. This could How [laughter] about the two-day options? Two-day options might be kind of fun. Margin options might be kind of fun. Margin requirements are huge in this. Um 7574.

[5:51:46] Oops. Oh, because I have a stock loaded up. Sorry, folks. Um if sell the 75 puts 1,200 bucks. Nah. A little too rich. A little too high. little too high. This I can do the 7674. I don't know.

[5:52:01] Let's see which way the skew is pointing. Stock's writing at 78 or so in between 77 12 and 79. Um, let's check a different expiration to check with the check the skew. So, it's close to 78 70 78 down let's say

[5:52:17] three bucks up three bucks down three bucks to three uh 75 puts trading at 320 up three bucks to the 81 calls trading at 340 skews pointed to the upside let's just try a two-day trade. I love these. I love these short. I don't know it if

[5:52:32] I'm a trader junkie. Okay. I I live and breathe options. I love these things. Let's just ship it off for 60 cents. See if See if Core Weeave for weave filled

[5:52:44] at 60 cents. Let's go to the next one. Let's take a look at um let's take a look at IBM. IBM is a dog that has been getting

[5:52:56] whacked. um you know it's a it's a bad um you know it's a it's a bad combination of uh of uh you know it's software it's not quite AI it's struggling to find its space in the new

[5:53:09] world whatever I don't know they just didn't like IBM and earnings are coming didn't like IBM and earnings are coming out um next week again I don't want to trade earth through earnings on this would I I'm not

[5:53:23] going to sell yeah I mean volatility is very high in here. 21345 right in between here. If I go down 2 and 1/2 points, up two and a half points. The skew is pointed towards the

[5:53:35] upside in here. Um, if I sell the 210 puts naked, $3,400 spend that. How about if I buy the 207 halves against it?

[5:53:47] 72 credit. I like to catch capture a third of the width of the strikes. That's my benchmark at two and a half divided by three is about 80 cents 83 cents. So I'm off about 10 uh about

[5:54:05] 10 cents on this is my credit. Let's try it at let's try it at let's try it at going to look they're even not going to I'm not going to bother with with IBM. it. There are other things to trade. How about Walmart? Um Walmart

[5:54:22] again, one of those consumer stocks, was up a little bit. Uh has been getting crushed over the past couple of months. Was had a little bit of a rally going Was had a little bit of a rally going here. Volatility is not bad. 29% not

[5:54:36] great. Not great. Let's check out earnings coming out August 20th. Let's earnings coming out August 20th. Let's check the markets. Markets are okay. Not awesome, but not for an individual stock, they're not bad. Um, let's go to

[5:54:50] let's go through earnings. Markets are tighter out here. Markets are tighter out here. Stocks at 11370. So, you're right in between 10 and 15.

[5:55:02] Let's go down five points and up five points. The 105 puts are trading 117. The 120 calls are trading at 203. The skew is pointed towards the upside in this stuff. Um, how about my how about the nine days? Do

[5:55:18] how about my how about the nine days? Do we get anything in here? If I do a we get anything in here? If I do a 2.

[5:55:30] hold this through earnings. And what are my numbers here? 63 cents. So, 63 cents, a third of the width of the strikes. I like that. Um, 70% probability of making half of it max profits. about 31 bucks before 16

[5:55:45] days. Generates $1.15 to Theta versus $137 of max risk. Let's try it. Let's ship it. Bullish on uh bullish trade on Walmart. Um finally, as we kind of have

[5:55:58] to wrap this up now, let's go back to the list. I was looking at Dell. Um I Spy. Let's check Spy real quick again. It's

[5:56:10] up. S&P. Oh, you can't keep these things down. Up 28 bucks. Should we do a do a bullish trade in SPY with zero DTE? Should we?

[5:56:24] Survey says no. There's not enough premium in zero DTE. How about the one premium in zero DTE. How about the one days? About the one days. Let's do the days? About the one days. Let's do the 72 half. Do this. Do this.

[5:56:37] Pull it up a little bit. load up a little bit. Let's try this. Let's do it at 28 cents. Buying the 7 752. Sell the 753s.

[5:56:50] it sells off. I'm still a little I'm thinking we're get rallying up too much. This is um this rally I think could be running out of steam, but hey, that's why I'm not going to sell a put spread in here quite yet. Um and it's very late

[5:57:04] in the day. Um so it's almost 1:30. We have an hour and a half left to trade and that just sucks the premium out of these short-term options. That's the trick. So, we have done, let's see, going to activity. We've done Walmart

[5:57:18] going to activity. We've done Walmart working core fil um GIS filled, uh XLF fil, Netflix fil, KHC filled. We've got a bunch of fills here. That is how I trade recommendation. If you want to trade this stuff, you do so by your own

[5:57:33] valition. And please do not take any more risk than you are comfortable with.

[5:57:50] >> Mike, what does it mean to be assigned? When you are assigned, you are ultimately short an option that's in the money and the counterparty has the ability to exercise that option. So if you are assigned, it means your option

[5:58:05] against your will ultimately has turned into 100 shares of long or short stock. >> What does a green scratch mean? >> Ooh, a green scratch refers to stubbornness getting the best of you. And when I say you, I mean me. Uh, green

[5:58:19] scratch refers to rolling a position, defending a position, and instead of just closing it for less than a loss that you're seeing, or maybe a $100 loss, $50 loss, a green scratch is when you close it for maybe a 5-cent winner,

[5:58:32] 10-cent winner, 15-cent winner. [music] Just the ability to see that green number on your screen and get out in a profitable way as opposed to a loss.

[5:58:49] We built Tasty Trades web platform for today's traders. See it, click it, trade it. Research with fundamentals, endless forecasts, and more. Drill into data, find opportunity, and track the action with hundreds of indicators. Track your

[5:59:04] options, [music] profit, and loss history over time per symbol. Note your progress, and plan your tactics with a trading journal. See probabilities, [music] max profit, and Greeks in one click.

[5:59:17] Fund your account and start trading right in the app. The tools, [music] the data, the knowledge. See it, click it, trade it. Join the club. trade it. Join the club. Tasty trade.

[5:59:34] today's traders. See it, click it, trade it. Drill into data, find opportunity, and track the action with hundreds of indicators. Track your options profit and loss history over time per symbol. Note your progress and plan your tactics

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[6:00:19] Welcome to the broadcast, man. Welcome to the Wednesday edition of what it is that we are trying to do. Welcome to the madeup imaginary PPI edition of what it idea what the number was this morning, but it does not matter because it's all

[6:00:33] you guys for being or being a part of what it is that we are trying to do. If Network, then I would actually bounce on over to YouTube. If it is live, if it is real time, you can pop into the chat. You can communicate with our brethren

[6:00:47] a day like today, man, I think everybody is celebrating and commiserating course, you can hop into the chat and you can ask me whatever questions that you might have. You get in there, you ask a question, you share a story, you

[6:01:02] tell a joke. I will take whatever you got because I want to know and the algo is dying, dying to know. So, get it in the chat and I will try to get to as many as I can right around the halfway mark of the show. But Laura, bring us

[6:01:16] in, man. Bring us in. Like, I don't know what's going on. Little mixed market action. Even the S&P is up 26. You got the risk-free instrument down 61. That would be the NASDAQ futures, which is not really risk- free in here today, but

[6:01:29] don't worry if there's enough computer restarts out there. We'll get this guy back to unsted by the end of the show. Got the boomers up 124. You got the Got the boomers up 124. You got the Russell 3000 right around 30,000 up 14.

[6:01:42] Got bonds up a little bit. You got notes up a little bit. You got oil up a little bit. You got UB40 up a little bit. You got the shifties up a little bit. You the euro up a little bit. You got volatility down a wee little bit down 42

[6:01:57] cents on the day. Volatility futures and then spot volatility. The old archaic then spot volatility. The old archaic caveman VIX down 81 cents down to 1569.

[6:02:09] Man, it's brutal. It's so brutal. It's the middle of July. It's southwest Florida. It's St. Petersburg. It's it's the sun sunshine capital of the world. But we haven't been able to breathe for 7 weeks and we've got our VIX at 15 and

[6:02:24] some change. It's brutal stuff, man. It's not the way it was intended to be. look at a couple of things happening. Look at Microsoft, man. Look at Microsoft coming out of nowhere. Coming out of nowhere with the hay maker to

[6:02:39] bring this guy back above water. We are now up 18 cents on the trade. So, we with that trade. We'll probably talk about Starbucks. We'll see where the wind blows us into maybe some new positions, but I see you guys in the

[6:02:52] house, man. David C is here. USA Super Tech is here, man. Joel James and Wolf Wolf, man. I appreciate you guys. I see SS SSSR be ready in the house, man. I see you guys. And many others that I did not see

[6:03:07] to you guys right around the halfway mark of the show. I mean, I don't know if you've checked the option chain recently, but the expected move on the number of questions I get to per show, it's somewhere between 0.6 and 0.65. So,

[6:03:21] there is a good chance I'll get to it. And by good chance, I mean I'm never going to get to it. But, if we take a look at what's going on in the in the portfolio here. So, uh, so we talked about MES and MQ yesterday. I'm not

[6:03:34] already talked about those. They're working. We let them cook, right? It's before we went live. This is very important, guys. In today's world, in 2026, if you are a 2026 trader, here is all you need to know. You want to be

[6:03:50] cooking. You do not want to be cooked, right? So, you need to be cooking. Let's let these positions cook because they're cooking. You don't want to be cooked. remember. That way, we can keep up with the youngsters that are out there. No

[6:04:05] cap. which I'm pretty sure that was from like 2021 or 2022. But nevertheless, uh There's a little preview of uh of things to come. But anyway, MEES and MNQ, we

[6:04:17] sit tight because those guys are cooking. And again, that is a positive thing. So, we go and minimize those guys real quick. And then we go to EM. I was just yesterday, I think, right?

[6:04:30] chains here really quick. Let's pull up a little rooster for you guys. 7:14. I'm no Julius Spina. And the calendar math live on the show is tricky, but I think that was yesterday. So, we did this guy yesterday uh at uh on the show.

[6:04:45] And so, that guy is uh it doesn't need any commentary. But, let's talk about Microsoft for just a wee little bit. Man, look at this. Two days to go and we have essentially pinned [clears throat] the perfect possible price. Now, we're

[6:04:59] matters for something like a broken wing butterfly. But man, we were down several up the chart here really quick on Microsoft, let's go ahead and uh if I

[6:05:11] bring up uh no, let me look at a chart of Microsoft. Yeah, look at that, man. Look at that. When did we do this trade? Now, again, you could look at the chart. could probably say, "All right, Dr. Jim, bullish. Probably going to be somewhere

[6:05:23] when it was, but it's probably somewhere around there. Well, if you look, it was 68. So, that's when we did this trade. So, where is 68 on the chart? I'm going to say it's right where we just circled. I'm going to say it's Yeah, look at

[6:05:37] I [laughter] I circled the exact candle that I got in from just understanding Dr. Jim's mo. Just understanding since I

[6:05:49] am Dr. Jim, I don't think I need to necessarily refer to myself in the third person anymore, but it is a little bit fun. This is where we got bullish. And even need the activity tab. You don't need the chains. Just look at the chart.

[6:06:03] Like, you know that I'm going to get bullish right before the bottom falls out. Like, you know that I'm going to get short right before there's a ripper Like, we cover this stuff. This isn't even intro class stuff. Like, this is

[6:06:16] the prerec you need to have completed to get into the class. Like, this is that basic. But anyway, it does appear that we have gotten all the way back on this surprising, I have to be honest, because you can see Microsoft was all the way

[6:06:31] down to uh this guy was all the way down to to uh this guy was all the way down to 349 on the low. And I mean, again, you know, this is where it's all made up, man. This is where it's all just

[6:06:43] whatever you need it to be, right? Like you're looking at that chart like it looks like, oh my goodness, if they break that low, there's no end in sight. It's never going to recover. There's no support. There's no this. There's no

[6:06:55] to save you. There's no MACD convergences to save you. Like, it is over. And of course, it just got started. And so, if you look at Microsoft all the way back up to 400, man, it's really, really crazy stuff.

[6:07:09] trade? Well, let's go back to the actual position now that we've taken a look at the chart. We didn't even need Bloop analysis. That's how obvious that chart analysis. That's how obvious that chart was. does. But if I look at Microsoft,

[6:07:22] number one, let's keep in mind that if Microsoft rallies, so let's just say that Microsoft goes up beyond this point and it goes up beyond 405. So this guy rallies back up beyond 405 and you know all of our options are out of the money.

[6:07:38] That is always a good scenario for you if you have a broken wing butterfly money if you put it on for a credit. Because if you did put on for a credit then you are going to be in line to pick up that credit or some portion of that

[6:07:51] So that would not be a bad outcome for us. But let's make sure that we understand what is on the table if we hold the trade. If we hold the trade and it goes back down. So now it goes back down through and let's grab a different

[6:08:05] color here just because we can. If it goes back down through this 390, I'm then we're going to be on the hook for like a five or $600 loser if that go if that guy goes back to being fully in the money. It's not now, which is good. So,

[6:08:20] understand the risk on the downside is asymmetric to the potential gain on the upside in terms of out of the money versus in the money. Of course, if we pin the short strike at 400, then it's nothing but strawberries and sunshine

[6:08:33] like it is nothing but tuna fish and gradea applesauce. And by grade A, I mean they sell it by about, you know, a dollar or $2 per box. So, it's not exactly the highest quality applesauce that is out there, but it does help the

[6:08:45] that is out there, but it does help the tuna fish slide down the old gullet a little bit uh easier. And so, either way, we have to understand if it goes down, that's not going to be good. If it goes up, that's going to be good, but

[6:08:57] to make sure that we're aware of that. So, what should we do? Well, understanding there's only two days to go. We basically have the perfect price right now. It's unlikely to stay here. Like, it's unlikely to sit at this exact

[6:09:11] level. So, honestly, I'm looking at this trade. I mean, I was pretty much mentally prepared to accept some type of loser on this trade, if not max loser on this trade. And so, when I look at this, I'm like, man, I kind of think let's

[6:09:25] and we'll call it a scratch. I mean, I'll call it a win for my mental That would be fair. Hey, maybe we compromise. It's a green scratch, right? So, we take this guy off for a little splash of green on the screen. And I'm

[6:09:40] pretty happy with that, man. Like, we've almost got a full BEu in our back to the weekend. And you guys know what do you do on Friday night? You round up Like, that's the only thing you can do. Like, is there anything better that you

[6:09:55] could do? I don't think so. I don't think so at all. So, let's go ahead. I'm going to close out of Microsoft here and we're going to be done with that guy. history of weekends [laughter] has

[6:10:08] Bonefish. So you could be the first. Actually, you and your boys could be uh could be the first. Uh oh, tomorrow night. Well, let me close this trade. But tomorrow night, so I'm actually playing in a

[6:10:20] I'm playing in a spades tournament with my buddies here in uh in St. Pete. We're tournament. I haven't played spades. I'm a Uker guy. So, shout out to all my Uker kind of a Midwestern game. Like, most people outside of Michigan or Ohio have

[6:10:34] never heard of Uker. And so, I'm curious if you are somewhere other than Michigan or Ohio, have you ever heard of Uker or have you ever played Uker? If you're in Michigan or Ohio, I'll already assume that you were taught this game at birth.

[6:10:46] quite well. But, I'm a Uker guy. I'm teaching my son how to play Uker. Eli, he's super fascinated by it. Uh, he's only nine, so, you know, his skills are throwing off when he shouldn't be thrown off. leading with the left power when he

[6:10:59] basic stuff we can clean all that up. But uh but yeah, I'm going to play some spades tomorrow night. U I'm very excited about that. Uh but I got to get this order filled on Microsoft man. They're coming for me. Uh a dollar.

[6:11:13] Yeah. So we basically got it really is a green strategy at this point. And so uh all right, so there you go. There's Microsoft and uh man, I see you guys in this chat. I can't even keep up. We're going to need to have multiple surprise

[6:11:27] and delay sessions, I think. I mean, you guys are in there. Laura is in there. I something, man. Laura's getting some work done in that chat. And so, wow, that's crazy stuff. Let's go ahead and All right. So, we did Microsoft. The

[6:11:41] only other thing I want to do today, so Starbucks, uh, I want to point out we did not get assigned. So, I would just like the record to show that Dr. Jim stumbled onto something that's actually correct. So, Dr. Jim found his way to

[6:11:54] the right answer. From the standpoint of the risk of assignment is very very low. necessarily mean that we were wrong per se, but the likelihood the probabilities are stacked heavily in favor of not being assigned because the extrinsic

[6:12:07] value is so high. Okay, I want to run it one more day simply because let's do the let's see. I don't think we're going to be assigned tonight either. Now again, you can see for yourself there's only a couple of days left. There's only so

[6:12:23] mean, we are literally running out of time. But I still think this extrinsic value is going to be a big enough shield to actually kind of ward off any potential assignments uh tonight. And then if we do get assigned and we come,

[6:12:37] and Starbucks is gone, then we just got to we got to pour out a little banana natty and just have a moment of silence and then we just move on. And so that'll some Starbucks, but let's do I want to do some new trades. Actually, let's do

[6:12:51] stocks cuz we got earnings coming up and I don't want to deal with all that. But QQQ, we already have our MNQ short put and we have our MEES short put. We already have those positions on uh clearly. But just to kind of

[6:13:05] strategically diversify a little bit, I'm thinking let's go into QQQ. I'm thinking let's go into QQQ. Let's go ahead and let's sell a call Let's go ahead and let's sell a call spread in QQQ. So, I'm thinking we open

[6:13:20] up the August cycle, and I like call spreads as opposed to put spreads because we're going to get much more favorable pricing on a call spread than we would get on a put spread. And so, by looking at the chain

[6:13:34] here, you can see QQQ is at 717. If I go in here If I go in here and I sell a If I sell, let's see if I do like a 725, 735. Yeah, look at that pricing, man.

[6:13:48] That's amazing. I mean, let's just take a look at this. So, I'm selling You got the You've got the index at 717 under 77. 77. The the 725 735 short call spread for my

[6:14:01] there. You guys can't see what I'm looking at right now. So, you only have my sultry voice to lead you forward through the forest. That is a dangerous my best. 725 735.

[6:14:16] 725 735. The the credit on this guy is 485 483. I'm about 9 8 and 12 to nine points out of the money with the 725 strike. And look at the probability of profit. It's actually 59%.

[6:14:31] So 59% is the probability of profit on a 725 735. And so that's pretty good, man. Like that's really good. And we're actually almost getting a one for one risk return

[6:14:45] uh ratio which is yeah that's kind of hard to find where you find a probability of profit that's north of 50%. But you're actually you're actually risking one to make one. But this is uh evidence of the volatility skew in the

[6:14:57] marketplace where generally speaking puts are going to sell expensive but put spreads are going to sell cheap. This is why when you go to set up a put spread or even in you know markets that aren't super strong but you go to set up a put

[6:15:12] paid on this put spread at all that's because the put that you're buying is so expensive. The put that you're buying to define your risk and spread that guy off you're paying through the nose for that guy. Like you are paying like top dollar

[6:15:26] for that extra put and that's very very very costly. On the call spread side it's kind of the opposite scenario. the call that you're buying is a lot cheaper than the one that you're selling just generally speaking. So, as a result, the

[6:15:39] net cost or price on the spread becomes a lot more favorable. That's exactly what we're seeing uh right here. So, let's go ahead. a little bit, though. Let's go ahead and move um I don't need to be this close to

[6:15:54] the stock price now that the pricing is so favorable. Yeah, I'm kind of thinking we do a 735 745 for 392. Uh, we're still risking a$150 to make a

[6:16:08] dollar, which is pretty nice. My probability of profit is 65%. That's probability of profit is 65%. That's pretty good. My P50 is 75 73%. That's pretty good. Everything kind of checks out here. And this is kind of a nice way

[6:16:20] to strategically diversify against those short puts that are actually out there short puts that are actually out there in MEES and uh and MNQ. So, let's put this guy on. And then, um, there was one other trade I was looking at.

[6:16:35] I was actually looking at TLT to do a little something in some bonds, which Okay, so we got filled at 389. So, let's do something in bonds and I'm going to get to you guys, man. Man, I see you guys in the house, man. Look at you

[6:16:49] guys. I can't believe how much work you guys are doing on a Wednesday, on a hump day. Like I know y'all skipped legs this morning because I did too. But the fact that you've got this much energy now, man, that's some good stuff. And so

[6:17:02] go to TLT. Uh, not T. I want to go to TLT. There we Uh, not T. I want to go to TLT. There we go. TLT. IV rank of 0.9. Man, that is pretty pretty low. So, let's go ahead. Let's see here. If I go

[6:17:18] to TLT the implied volatility is not there to sell premium, it doesn't really make sense. Now, can you sell premium at a zero IVR and get away with it? You can.

[6:17:31] I mean, don't tell anybody that I told you that, but you can, right? Can you sell implied volatility in the single digits and get away from it? You can, me, but you can do it, right? You can do whatever you want to do. It's your

[6:17:43] world, right? We're just trying to get by. We're just trying to live in your atmosphere. But when it comes to selling pre that didn't make any sense when it there, right? So now we roll with it. When it comes to selling premium,

[6:17:58] selling premium is so powerful. It's actually so effective that it works really well when volatility is higher, but it still works okay when volatility like this one where there is a lot of volatility in the indexes, in the

[6:18:12] individual names, whatever, it doesn't usually make a ton of sense to go out of your way to sell bottom of the barrel volatility. But I understand in a slow kind of slow, which it hasn't really been yet, but maybe it will be, you

[6:18:26] know, later in July or in August or whatever. selling some premium when barrel and kind of on those lower ends of the range. It can make a little bit data working for you. You want to have, you know, some premium coming in against

[6:18:40] to do anything in individual names trading individual names or you've got earning season coming up or whatever the reason might be, you kind of feel more comfortable in SPY or SPX or QQQ or IWM

[6:18:55] or DIA. Shout out to my boomers that are watching the show. I mean, whatever it might be, you know, you could sell some singledigit IVRs. Again, you did not hear that from me. Laura, remember to scrub this section from the tapes uh in

[6:19:08] the archives. But if we go to TLT, I could go ahead and we could do a little diagonal spread, right? What if we go into September with 65 days to go? What if we buy like an 82 call? We'll play TLT the up to the upside. Uh, and

[6:19:25] then we go to uh, August and we sell like an 86 call in August. We're going to do this for 255. So, a pretty small position. And

[6:19:37] this is just a standard diagonal spread. Looking to do this for less than about 75% the width of the strikes. And so, that gives us a lot to work with in terms of profit potential on the position. And so, 8286

[6:19:52] is our diagonal spread for TLT. just giving us again just another layer of strategic diversification cuz we know what's coming on down the shoots. I that it's all the heavy hitters, man. It's all your Googles and your Amazons

[6:20:05] and your McDonald's and your Pepsi and your Paneras. I don't even think Panera but you guys get the idea. You get the gist of what's coming on down the streets. Apples, Amazons, Metas, Microsoft, it's all coming. You can't

[6:20:18] stop it now. So, with TLT here, let's just go ahead and we'll do a little diagonal spread and nothing crazy. Just a little something to kind of, you know, little bit. All right. So, let's go ahead and man, you guys in this chat, I

[6:20:32] to begin. But let me try to surprise and delay somebody uh in the middle. I think I can do it. Oh, Jackie W. Look at Jackie W in the house. Jackie W, I'm a Jackie W in the house. Jackie W, I'm a headphone only for the ASMR. I'm not

[6:20:46] sure what the ASMR is, but if you're an audio only listener for the show, then I appreciate you there, Jackie W. That's a tough tough poll for you, but you are being here and being a part of the uh of the show. And so, let me try to uh let

[6:21:02] me try to find can I find somebody else to surprise and delight? to surprise and delight? Uh, let's see. Let's see. Let's see. Uh, let's see. Let's see. Let's see. Uh oh, here we go. Samuel with a trade

[6:21:15] idea in the middle. Samuel Doc, how about a leap on Oaka? I remember Oaka. The artist formerly known as OT. Man, let's go. A leap 617. Uh, so June 17th

[6:21:27] let's go. A leap 617. Uh, so June 17th of 2027, a 160 strike call. Somebody that's not true, but let's give it a look. A little OTAA. A little okra for you guys. Let's go out to June. Man, I haven't done leap. I

[6:21:42] don't even really remember what I'm trying to do. Uh, yeah. So, okay. So, first of all, the first thing that I noticed, and I haven't looked at this in a long time. I see it come up on the chain from time to

[6:21:56] for what I'm I'm about to point out in a second, but I can't remember what it is. option pricing model. But I can't remember the reason why like the actual fundamental driver that's causing this what we're going to see here in a second

[6:22:11] So I'm going to leave you all very much with an incomplete explanation here this morning. But if you take a look at like if you look at octa it's at 150 right? So Oaka is at 150. You go to a 150 strike and what would you expect? You

[6:22:24] would expect the 150 strike to be about a 50 delta but it's not. the 150 strike a 50 delta but it's not. the 150 strike on the call side is a 64 delta. And so on the call side is a 64 delta. And so like when I look at Sam's 160 strike

[6:22:37] naturally, I would look at that I'm like that's out of the money by 10 points, a futures product because that's actually carrying a 60 delta. The at the money marker for Oaka isn't until you get to the 190 strike. Now I do think if

[6:22:54] stabbing. I'm kind of reaching in the dark here a little bit, but I do think that come together, not unlike peanut butter and oatmeal, not unlike tuna fish and applesauce, upside skew with some janky looking

[6:23:10] deltas across the chain, where the deltas are actually shifted up, where think they should be from the standpoint of the 50 delta strike is above where the stock is actually trading. Now, a lot of times this corresponds with

[6:23:24] upside skew. Again, I can't remember exactly why that's the case other than going to try to let let me try. This actually isn't made up. This is actually going to try to let Let me think about this for a couple more days. I'm going

[6:23:37] to pass on this right now, Samuel, because again, I'd like to have a better seeing. And there is an explanation. There's always an explanation. Like I class, you guys have probably heard me say this before, but just in case you're

[6:23:50] brand new to the show, every single thing that we see in the markets, every single thing, it has a mathematical explanation and an intuitive explanation. Now, sometimes it makes more sense to go to one or the other

[6:24:02] and you can just grab onto it quickly and then just get what you need and then really trying to build up your understanding, I think it could be worthwhile to try to explore both. Now, I can respect the fact that some of you

[6:24:14] which is one of the third derivatives of going to necessarily explore the mathematical proof of that guy. I'll let Dr. Jim explain it to me. That's fair. But there are other times where like a

[6:24:27] seeing here, it could be useful to go through the mathematical uh explanation time. We'll come back to this guy sometime between the next, you know, one sometime between the next, you know, one to 36 weeks. And so, Oaka uh we'll pass

[6:24:40] on that guy, but thank you there. Uh Sam L man, I see you guys in the chat. Look at Ashfan here. David C is here, man. Wolf Wolf is here. I see BBB Fine is here, man. Let's go all the way back to the beginning, though. Grumpy Mike in

[6:24:54] Uh they need some government portfolio attention. I think that was a previous uh carryover from a previous conversation. But uh but I think that what could possibly go wrong with some government portfolio attention? Can you

[6:25:08] But anyway, or Denu's in the house. Hello, Dr. Jam. Let's go. It's time for the B minus humor and some highlevel financial education. You are the greatest, man. I appreciate you, Oru. I will send you that cash that we talked

[6:25:21] the stream at this very time. And of course, I will convert it to euros because I know you're in Italy. So, I'll make sure that you have cash that you you. But I appreciate you, my friend. Ash Finn is here. What is up? Uh, and

[6:25:35] then yes, uh, TP, the amuse bouch that kicks off all from theory to practice, which is a lot more than an amuse bouch. Like that's such like a that's such a disc such a such a disc on what TP is doing in that show. Like that show's

[6:25:47] giving you so many actionable insights. I actually think I think it's a platter of amuse bushes. Like it's not just one singular amuse bouch. Like I think you've got eight or 10 or 12 different amuse bushes on the uh the TP platter

[6:26:01] definitely sign up for the cherry bomb. Oh, that's a great uh great idea. Jerry been MIA for a few weeks working the fields here in Iowa. I need that B minus Shamemer, man. I got you covered. And some love from the P&L Open Bros to

[6:26:15] Pen Open Bros. They're struggling, man. Like, look at these guys. They got remember coming out of the gates with MEES green, MNQ, green, em even a little

[6:26:27] MEES green, MNQ, green, em even a little splash of green, right? MU the P open then you got a little Netflix like okay we got a little something to work with but then we just drop their hammer on them with this Starbucks position right

[6:26:39] again for all the reasons we've talked about before I'm not going to go over it by managing well maybe I will go over it a little bit uh [laughter] by managing I rarely see a tangent that I want to at least at least tangentially touch right

[6:26:55] the tangents as they come our way because otherwise it just doesn't feel right. But uh but yeah, because we manage early, we're taking trades off opens don't mean anything, right? Because obviously all the losers are

[6:27:08] yourself in a situation where you actually have a lot of green in your penal open, then I would just screenshot that. I would screenshot screenshot that to give yourself a bit of ammunition the next time the Penal Open bros kind of

[6:27:20] come out of the woodworks and they uh and they surface. But Sam L's in the house with the court position. That's correct. Uh Jared Kramer is here. What is up? My friend Ranch is in the house. Uh, too risky. Uh, spy zero day for me.

[6:27:33] nothing's riskier than Walmarts in my opinion. Nothing's riskier than the meat opinion. Nothing's riskier than the meat at Walmart. Can you find a trade that is consistently pinned at 100 more than the meat at Walmart? I don't think you can.

[6:27:49] tilapia. I mean, you could even go into the frozen foods section. that IVR hasn't seen a day under 80 in many, many, many years. And so I agree with you there, uh, Ranch. But, uh, but SSS, SSSRB ready. Happy hump. Happy hump day,

[6:28:07] Dr. Jim. Protein shakes in one hand. Check. Strangles in the other. Check. Let's get some beu trades cooking today. That's correct. We want to be cooking. We do not want to be cooked. So, that is correct. Dr. De or I'm sorry, Dr. Deal.

[6:28:20] going on? Dr. Jim was on yesterday. I was I mean they got your boy working the afternoons. They got your boy working the evenings now with calculated risks and whatever. Like they got your boy around the clock. And so Shane's in the

[6:28:34] for the algo. There you go. When putting on 45 days to go, both defined and undefined. Winning trades rarely uh really get paid in the meat of time with gamma versus theta area. Correct. Around that 21day area. Okay. So, a couple of

[6:28:50] that 21day area. Okay. So, a couple of things. So the 45 to 21, personally I again you didn't hear that from me, right? I think 21 is fine. I do think need to. You're not really going to run into any gamma risk issues, you know,

[6:29:03] between 21 and 14. But so you're in somewhere between 30 and 60. 45 is a great entry point. 21 and 14, right? When it comes to that journey that a lot more applicable for uh an undefined risk position like a short put, like a

[6:29:19] short strangle, like a ratio spread, like a jade lizard, something like like a straddle, uh perhaps because you have that unfiltered exposure to the Greeks. exposure to the Greeks, you know, time passing is going to pay you handsomely.

[6:29:33] you handsomely. And so, a lot of times you can take those trades off before 21 days to go. With defined risk, it's very, very different for two reasons. Number one, if you have a neutral defined risk strategy, like an iron

[6:29:47] because you have the friction on both sides. It really slows things down. It's actually quite rare that you would be able to take that guy off at 21. A lot too strong of a word, but it's not the expected move. Like I would not

[6:30:01] necessarily expect that. I would be ready to have to hold that guy to maybe 18 or 16 or 14. What if you have a strategy like a vertical spread? Well, this is going to be very different. Not because of the fact that it's uh

[6:30:14] necessarily going to move more slowly over time, although it is because you don't have as much theta. This is so much of a directional play. Chances are, if it's going to be a winning trade, it's going to happen whenever it happens

[6:30:26] because of the directional move in the underlying stock. Case in point, if I sell a put spread and the stock or the market rallies, 21 days is going to be a moot point. like it's not even going to be relevant because I'm going to manage

[6:30:39] know, as soon as that move happens. If it happens on day one, if it happens on day 11, if it happens on day 26, it's going to essentially be kind of beholden still have the theta that's kicking. And so, if the move doesn't happen, that's

[6:30:53] obvious obviously still paying you. And so, that factors into this in a with a short call spread. If it goes down, then I'm going to get paid on the delta move. I'm not necessarily going to get paid on the theta move. And so just

[6:31:05] remember with defined risk, it's just a very very different animal. Not necessarily worse because you do have, you know, the defined risk nature of you just don't have that unfiltered exposure to the Greek. So it really

[6:31:17] exposure to the Greek. So it really changes the game in uh in my opinion. Uh as Finn says, TP needs to push his trades through. I agree. I agree. I think that's probably coming. And so um I think he's been uh busy solving his

[6:31:30] internet issues, which we know a whole lot about that. And so, uh, fingers and toes crossed that, uh, that TP can get that sorted out. Maybe I should get Autumn on the case because she finally figured out our internet. And so, maybe,

[6:31:42] uh, I should just have Autumn give TP a call there. So, Ranch, I forever hate Although, I don't know that I've traded it, uh, recently. But, uh, but I'm with my friend. Grumpy Mike need to win the lotto tonight to fund some of tomorrow's

[6:31:56] trades. We've all been there. We've all 100% been there. Uh Sam doc, I don't think the bloop analysis can handle the Lucid chart. At some point, it stops me in technical analysis. It becomes a cry for help. Uh I don't even know. I mean,

[6:32:09] let's take a look. Well, it's up 26% today. That's got to be good, right? Whoa, baby. Look at that thing. That is crazy. Let me scroll back Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. I can't scroll too far because then you get that. Whoa.

[6:32:25] Wait a second. So, are you really going to tell me? No, wait. Hold on, guys. Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. If you're multitasking, if you're multitasking, CPIs and PPIs and all that garbage that is totally made up. Look at this chart.

[6:32:41] If this chart is real, which I think somebody hacked the system and this must be some kind of deep fake or some kind of malware or something. Look at this chart. Can you really look at this chart and tell me with a straight face it's

[6:32:54] not all made up? Can you can you really look at this chart and tell me that it's not all just imaginary in our minds? What are we even trying to do? Like at this point, just shut it down, man. Shut the whole thing down. The whole thing

[6:33:08] needs to stop. The entity one, Tom Cruz, it didn't do it. Like, it's over. I Resurrection Reckoning, but for the time being, for the time being, it's over. Look at this. So, you're telling me that Lucid Hang on a second. So, Lucid went I

[6:33:23] can't even So, Lucid went from a $20 stock So, Lucid went from a $20 stock to a $220 stock overnight. That's crazy. It should end right there. That would be enough to just shut it down. Like, it's

[6:33:37] farmers or whatever, which farmers are amazing. But I'm just saying anything whatsoever, that's where we need to be. Cuz look at this chart. If you gap up from two from 20 to 220, something ain't right. Something ain't right. Okay. So,

[6:33:53] you do that. Fine. Then you're telling me that what? Four days later, five days later, it went back down to 20. And you're telling me this is all real. You're telling me that this movement, oh, it's based on the future earnings

[6:34:09] growth. Oh, it's based on, you know, the projected cash flows of project XYZ. No, it's all garbage, man. IT'S IT'S ALL COMPLETELY MADE UP. Are you serious? Wow, Samuel, you really kind of Man, I think we just need to start selling

[6:34:22] it. I mean, I don't know what else to do. I don't know that we can recover from this, man. I mean, Lucid obviously can't. I'm not sure that we can either. I mean, I really don't know what to make of this. Uh, other than the fact that

[6:34:34] please never ask me to look at Lucid again because I don't even know. I don't even know how to explain this. I really don't. I am at would run out of words to say when I started my very first show and Autumn

[6:34:47] assured me. She said, "Don't worry, Jim Schultz will never run out of things to been right. I don't know that she meant that as a compliment at the time that she said it, but she was right. But I am at a loss for words on this uh this

[6:35:00] Lucid situation. And so I don't know what to say, man. That's really that's crazy stuff. Sam, man, I appreciate you, man, but don't ever do that to me again. Uh [laughter] SSSBR ready is in the house. Back in the

[6:35:14] house talking about some seamless TP lines. That's some good stuff. Uh let's tonight." Yeah, I'm going to pass Sam. You took me down once. I'm not going to absolutely no idea what they do, what they sell, or what industry they're in.

[6:35:28] I agree. It is a ticket with confidence, but I'm going to pass just so I can recover just so I can lick my wounds a little bit and uh and see if we can't uh get back to uh the tried and true. So, BBB Fine is in the house. Where's up?

[6:35:40] USA Super Tech, how about an all-time high today on low volume? Yeah, that would be kind of interesting. I agree. Mr. Pillows, are you still in SpaceX? I am right now. Uh, and I'm getting hurt pretty badly. You can see that. I mean,

[6:35:53] thankfully, it's defined risk, right? So, it can only be so bad. But $15, uh, we have a $15 wide put spread. It's marking at 1275. So, there's only a in the trade, which is good, of course. I mean, we've obviously absorbed uh most

[6:36:06] which is a positive thing. So, it can only get, you know, so much worse. And we have 37 days to go. And 37 days to go for an Elon company, that is an eternity. Like, we are one tweet away. One tweet and a retweet away from this

[6:36:23] thing being back in business. Like, don't even worry about it at all. So, SpaceX, we are in it. Don't feel great about it, but uh as we just learned with Lucid, it could be a lot worse. And so Ryan is in the house. A trillion

[6:36:35] this real life? Yeah, I don't know man. I really really truly don't. Big deal donuts just rewatched Julia's market research piece and Gus an aerial segment. Very nice. I agree man. We are surrounded by by superstars and so uh

[6:36:51] yeah just some great great stuff. Wolf is here. Doc the truck broke down on the side of the road. I'm waiting on AAA but I can't miss from David to practice man. That's amazing. Wow. Are you watching it like in the car with the AAA guy now?

[6:37:03] home or whatever. If you are, hello AAA guy. Thank you for helping out Wolf Wolf there and rescuing him on the side of the road. And so, man, that's some dedication though. There's some real dedication. Uh, let's see. Grumpy Mike

[6:37:16] need to see Julie on more often. I agree. Thursday trivia. I agree. 100% agree. Brian Rackington is in the house. Let's go. Uh, Laura's in the house to enter the chat. Yeah, we're actually mixing it up a little bit, guys. And so,

[6:37:31] a minute. Now, this is probably only going to be a temporary thing. This is from this is for budget constraints primarily. So, Autumn went to Costco this morning, and usually they have the variety pack at Costco of the ghost. And

[6:37:45] good stuff. They're not giving you the sour pink lemonade, the green sour variety pack. There's no way they'd be need to talk to your boy as a little consulting deal because I could really

[6:37:58] help them out in a big big way. They usually give you the peach and you know it's like they're good but they're not the tippity top. Anyway, they stopped you know how Costco is. They just kind of go in and out whatever. Now they've

[6:38:13] got Monster and it's obviously dirt cheap because it's at Costco. And so like, "Hey, do you want this? They don't have any ghosts." And I was like, "Not really, man." man. But it's like we got to do something, right? I don't know

[6:38:25] that I want to feel the aftermath of going over budget. Uh cuz I don't have any walking around cash right now. And so, uh yeah. Yeah. I just went with the monster ultras. And so, I will report back and let you guys know. It's solid.

[6:38:37] It's solid. It's not a ghost, but it's solid. It'll get the job done. And so, um let's see. Uh Joel James is here. Thanks for all that you do. It's for the algo, but thanks anyway. Yes. [laughter] Nicely done, my friend. Nicely done,

[6:38:50] Joel James. I'll tell you what, Joel James' troll game, it's very, very effective. And it's sneaky. It's very, very sneaky. Like, he kind of he ropes he slides it in at the end, and it's just it's A+, man. And by A+, I mean

[6:39:04] just it's A+, man. And by A+, I mean it's B minus. USA Super Tech, the doctor's in the house. What's going on? Uh, David C, what is up? Rants, what's up? Jim, looks like you got a haircut. I did not. Not many, but maybe one or two.

[6:39:16] Actually, didn't. It just happens to be that we It's a bit more uh kept. It's a haven't gotten a cut in several months. We're about due. We're about due for a cut. Uh let's see. CA Paris, don't worry. We have a doctor in the house. Uh

[6:39:29] yeah, not that kind of doctor, but uh but yeah. Uh big deal donuts. Yes, some tasty market trivia. Uh that would be awesome. I agree. Same. Mission Impossible. Entity detected. The algo chills the Tom Cruz strategy. Run faster

[6:39:42] Cruz running scene. Got to have it. You actually get multiple in the last final like right out of the gates. I'm like, "Yeah, you got to shoot from strength, there's multiple more throughout and it's just it's awesome. It's so awesome.

[6:39:57] Media is in the house. What is up there, E Media? I appreciate you, my friend. SSSRB already back. Dr. Schultz in the chat's vibing. Laura is pumping, man. Laura is putting in some work, man.

[6:40:11] Laura is really getting it done. Uh USA Super Tech, my Delta is racing against time today. And you got that little Delta Theta action. And that's the way even any given Sunday, for my Willie Beam fans that might be watching, Delta

[6:40:24] is going to be the biggest mover on any is going to be the thing that we're really hanging our hats on, but Delta is that's what's going to potentially do the most damage in the shortest amount

[6:40:36] Delta race against the clock, that makes And, uh, uh, there's Laura pumping the algo. Uh, I agree. And, uh, and then let's see, uh, Joel James, Dr. Jim, AA is is best down here. AA is best down.

[6:40:51] Uh oh, Alcoa is best down. Is there an earnings trade there? Tell me what you you don't put it on, just give me the direction, please. I'm not going to put it on, but again, if you just think about Alcoa and again, just think about

[6:41:04] it as a thought experiment. Right? What do they sell? They sell aluminum, right? Aluminum, that's 1986 stuff. That's not 2026 stuff, right? We're way past that. We're way beyond that. So, I am mega mega bearish on Alcoa. So, there you go.

[6:41:17] Uh, Joel James, but I gotta go. I gotta run, man. I appreciate you guys so very much. If I can ever help you guys in any way, please shoot me an email. I can uh help in any way that I can. You guys can also find me on Twitter. I'm J Schultz

[6:41:29] there as well. But stay tuned. We do have Tim Knight coming up next with guys, trade them small, trade them heavy, and stay generous. We'll see you heavy, and stay generous. We'll see you guys tomorrow.

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[6:44:43] >> Hello there. Tim Knight and it is church time. I just the the the tone and the texture of the show versus Dr. Jim's show is so different. I mean, I'm like a glass of sand compared to the uh exaltant and persistently positive Dr.

[6:44:58] Jim. Oh well, it all averages out in the end, right? Um so anywh who uh it is a green day. ES is up, YM is up, RTY is up, but my shorts we're still doing well

[6:45:13] very semiconductor related and techreated. Uh, and so it's been a green day all day long. And my my short positions have been making the most deliciously obscene gesture to the rest of the market out there. So, uh, it's

[6:45:28] it's a good day. And, uh, during my little morning segment, um, it was something was up because the semiconductors weren't having any of it.

[6:45:40] So, um, let's let's look at a chart or two, shall we? That's that's what we do here. Um, we're going to start off with the recalcitrant diamonds. They just refuse to break. And you know what? Just to be a brat. I shorted a whole ton of

[6:45:54] this about 20 minutes ago um based on the hope that uh it would break the trend line. Uh it's a nice tight stop right there, right where the line is right there, right where the line is drawn. Um this is uh really one of the

[6:46:08] la this is the ultimate ombre right here. He's just refuses to break. Um, I suppose it's helped in to some degree by the mega banks, the financials. Um, I don't tend to touch banks because they are steadfastly protected um by the

[6:46:25] government. They no harm will dare ever befall them. We came close in 2008. I mean, if we had um if we could wave the magic wand to really clean things up, um

[6:46:38] 2008 was the opportunity to just like wipe things clean and start over. Didn't happen. So now we're $40 trillion in debt and just supporting the poor deers. So your JP Morgans and your chases, they're all doing just fine. Thanks for

[6:46:51] asking. So the XLF is at lifetime highs. I don't touch this stuff. I'm looking I don't touch this stuff. I'm looking for disasters. Um IWM is also in the haven't quite broken the trend line club, but it's getting a

[6:47:03] little sketchy. It's teasing a little bit on Monday and today it it went a little bit below the trend line. Uh it wouldn't take much to uh to crack that sucker. Uh emerging markets have been weak for a while. Um these peaked um way

[6:47:19] back on June 22 and have been sloppily trending lower. and uh in particular, of course, you might not be surprised to know that South Korea is the poster know that South Korea is the poster child for um bad markets. Now, you've

[6:47:33] probably seen that that um news [clears throat] story about the widely followed YouTube investment celebrity in South Korea, got like 90,000 followers or something. And now that South Korea is starting to fall to pieces, um he got

[6:47:48] stabbed repeatedly like in the face, in the body. Um so yeah no luckily we are not hearing that about that here but people do get passionate about these things and you know we as traders know it's really important to try not to

[6:48:04] blame others for your decisions. I I've said it before I I I tease people sometimes cuz I never get a thank you for my short ideas but I don't want them credit. I don't want blame. I'm here to offer ideas to share my charting

[6:48:18] knowledge. I've been doing this since 19 Oh my god, how long's it been? Since 1987, 1987, I've been doing charting and uh I'm here to share my knowledge and decades of acred wisdom and share ideas

[6:48:32] with you with a strong bearish tilt. But if you make a fortune, don't thank me. And if you lose your house, don't blame me. It's not my fault. I'm just here to try to show you charts and provoke ideas with you. And don't stab me either, by

[6:48:45] the way. um you'll never get through the subcutaneous tissue anyway. Um so FXI China uh looks good on the short side and I say that having lost on this already. I came into the day short FXI. I lost like that and uh I'm in it again.

[6:49:03] chart. It's got a ton of overhead supply. I'm not giving up on this. So I'm short FXI. I remain the short BU. Didn't get stopped out of that. So, Didn't get stopped out of that. So, here's BUU. Uh, it is up, but not

[6:49:18] stopped out. And I really like this pattern. I've also re-entered uh a short on Baba. Got stopped out of that, too. Lost in FXI. Lost in Baba. I'm not going to lie to you. It happens. But I'm in it again. And it looks prettier than ever.

[6:49:34] Nice little shooting star there. So, China, China, China. Where have I heard that? Uh, PDD. You know what? I'm not going to touch it. It it's it's it'll probably fall too if all the Chinese stuff falls, but it's n the gap's way

[6:49:47] chart. Why are you showing us a chart that's ugly? I don't know. I just thought I might mention it because uh it is one of the more popular Chinese is one of the more popular Chinese individual items. You know, let's talk

[6:50:00] about SpaceX, shall we? Shield your eyes, Frank. We're going to Shield your eyes, Frank. We're going to look at this thing. Um got to stop sticking my tongue out. look like Lindsey Graham. Keep your tongue in

[6:50:13] like Lindsey Graham. Keep your tongue in your mouth, Tim. Okay. Um, SPX, SPCX has lost over a trillion dollars in shareholder value since it peaked. And I consider the Pete to be just under 230. That was the, you know, cuz I was

[6:50:26] watching this thing tick by tick. Um, just under 230. It's down almost $100 from there. It's lost over a trillion dollars in value. We ain't hearing no more being a trillion anymore because by god that was boring. But uh yeah,

[6:50:40] their pearls about that. Don't worry, he's lost the comma. He's one of us he's lost the comma. He's one of us again. Um but over trillion dollars. I felt it. And a lot of other people have, too. Um but you know what? It doesn't

[6:50:55] sting too much cuz I'd rather be right than rich. Crazy, huh? Uh I I've done videos on this. The valuations were insane. And um I think they're going to get more and more sane as time goes on. I'm a

[6:51:11] chartist. I base things upon long-term histories. There's very little to go on here except for one and only one thing from a charting perspective, which is from a charting perspective, which is that we're at lows. And there is firm

[6:51:23] that is zero. I'm not saying it's going to zero. Uh could it go to 20? Oh yeah, I guess. Um it's in terrible shape. We're approaching 50% loss from the peak and there is nothing holding it up and

[6:51:40] there's going to be even less starting on August 13 when the insiders who some of whom were briefly billionaires many of whom were sent to millionaires are seeing their net worth go and they were looking at Lamborghinis

[6:51:56] and I was like you know Toyota makes a good car um and so you're going to see from August 13 Mark the day all the way through December 9. Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell. Cuz as a matter of fact, you know, balancing

[6:52:11] the nonsensical projections like from Raymond James of $830 a share versus the fact that like, oh my god, it's hitting lifetime lows every single day. Jiminy I'd rather have cash. So, it's going to be interesting to watch.

[6:52:27] um has been a disaster and I say that as a participant in that disaster, but kind of a joyful one, right? Um I had also said in my videos that Cabris might be a

[6:52:39] good model for what SpaceX's going through, huh, looks like I was right. Look at that. It's kind of close. There's a lot of excitement at the beginning and it has been barfing all over its lapels ever since. So, we're

[6:52:51] a very different company. This is a memory company, but it is similar in as much as they took advantage of a very hot sector. Um, and if a year or two

[6:53:03] from now we're trying to find the exact peak of the tech stock bubble, it wouldn't be a mistake to say, "How about the IPOs SpaceX day?" Put that on the the IPOs SpaceX day?" Put that on the calendar because that was a fervor.

[6:53:16] Um, and I also really wonder if the anthropic and uh, IPO and even, you know, next year the open IPO are going to actually do it all decently because

[6:53:28] this has caused a lot of damage, a lot of damage. How enthusiastic do you think people are going to be about some big new trillion dollar IPO tumbling out new trillion dollar IPO tumbling out with skyhigh valuations? Like, nah, I'll

[6:53:41] stick with Apple. They seem to do nothing but go up. Thanks. You know, and you're seeing that reflected too in VCX. As I've said before, this is the fund dedicated to those who want to get in before the IPO. Fewer and fewer people.

[6:53:53] own. I don't need help. So, that's withering away. Um, cubes have a bearish engulfing pattern now. We're down about 08.1% on this. It's kind of a

[6:54:05] going to put a name on it. I haven't drawn any lines for it, but it's kind of a penant pattern. [clears throat] um is getting less and less dynamic. But um is getting less and less dynamic. But as I've said, I am um very very heavily

[6:54:19] short. Semiconductors and other highly value tech issues. Some of them include uh applied materials down about 3 and a3%. Uh CRDO, which has cracked below

[6:54:31] its completed pattern today. This is down over 5%. Uh Nokia down almost 5% doing God's work, just falling every day little by little. ST Micro Electronics little by little. ST Micro Electronics down almost 5%. Um these have all broken

[6:54:46] their uh these have all broken their trend lines and it was very heartening to see um them making the aforementioned obscene gestures even this morning when things were just rocketing higher uh thanks to this government generated

[6:55:00] inflation data which I'm sure is not fabricated at all. Um AXTI down um it's down like 10% every day it seems. Today it's down less. It's down almost 9%. Uh here's Sienna, CEN, down over 5%, and let's just add another

[6:55:16] line there. It's it's looking close to breaking um yet another support level breaking um yet another support level like so. Lum li um fired up for the past week, pushed up against its overhead supply, and now

[6:55:31] against its overhead supply, and now reversing itself, throwing away days of reversing itself, throwing away days of gains very quickly. MRVL Marll down almost 8%. Um, as I mentioned this [clears throat] morning, I covered my

[6:55:43] short here. I re-entered it on the spike and been holding on to it ever since. And down she goes. Uh, Micron Mu. [snorts] Um, this is down also having plunged below its uh, broken trend line. I think I saw it lost $100 billion today

[6:55:59] in market cap. Can't be bad. uh STX, this is Seagate down over 6% also plunging below its broken trend line. Keep in mind this is with the market at still insanely high levels. I got to emphasize that it's not like well we've

[6:56:14] gone down 2% I guess we're done. No, you know if the Dow's like 53,000 or something. No. No. Wake me when it's 20,000. Then we can talk about that. But 20,000. Then we can talk about that. But no, lots to go. Uh here's WDC down

[6:56:28] you know this is kind of leading the charge. This is the this is the the the charge. This is the this is the the the avantguard the leading edge of um [clears throat] selling because these were the companies that were so very

[6:56:41] richly valued and uh the whole AI space the hyperscaling space whether you're talking about Oracle or Coreweave um or any of these semiconductors or companies that are private like Open AAI and Anthropic um the bloom is coming off

[6:56:57] that rose real quick even though the likes of Caterpillar Uh, I bought puts on this yesterday morning. Yay. Because it was way up here and uh we got two nice fat red bars there. And as strange as it seems,

[6:57:10] Caterpillar was a big beneficiary of the AI mania cuz they were seen as an important part of that whole construction process. Um, as an aside, I'll just say Carvana continues to be annoyingly robust. It's it's up 6%. But

[6:57:26] I emphasize these are January puts. We're not, this is not a dead duck. Uh, it could be if we go flying above that diamond pattern, sure. But as it is now, it's just annoying and hasn't broken any core reason for being being I I'm long

[6:57:42] puts on this one. So, um, you know what? We got time for a couple more charts. We got time for a couple more charts. Um, SMH is key. This is my anchor position. Uh, we've had a nice drop in this today, 2.19%.

[6:57:56] And, um, shut up, Nookie. Uh, we've got a kind of a head and shoulders pattern here which hasn't quite broken yet. If we can slip below the support, that will be a big step in the right direction. And I didn't include this, forgive me,

[6:58:10] producer, but I'm going to punch in one last chart here. Um, the ENQ, cuz this is a very important one to watch. Hello, Tim. Click it. Um [clears throat] this

[6:58:22] Tim. Click it. Um [clears throat] this is this is the key right here because that on the one hand we've got this range we've been in ever since um June 22. Um oh excuse me June yeah June 22 and uh

[6:58:38] over here of June 12, excuse me. Um so here's the whole range but in recent weeks we've been in the lower half of that range. So the key for the one or two bears and I'm probably rounding up that are still out there is if we can

[6:58:53] break that support line, that lower support line. If we can break that, selling and we're not going to have this bifurcation of like, well, the ES and that? It'll be red across the board, but it's got to break that support first.

[6:59:08] Okay. Amazingly, I'm ending on time, so I'll see you later. And uh take care. I'll see you later. And uh take care. I'll be back Thursday. Bye-bye.

[6:59:25] >> Mike, what does it mean to be assigned? When you are assigned, you are ultimately short an option that's in the money and the counterparty has the ability to exercise that option. So, if you are assigned, it means your option

[6:59:40] against your will ultimately has turned into 100 shares of long or short stock. What does a green scratch mean? >> Oo, a green scratch refers to stubbornness getting the best of you. And when I say you, I mean me. Uh, green

[6:59:54] scratch refers to rolling a position, defending a position, and instead of just closing it for less than a loss that you're seeing, or maybe a $100 loss, $50 loss. A green scratch is when you close it for maybe a 5-cent win,

[7:00:07] 10-cent [music] winner, 15-cent winner. Just the ability to see that green number on your screen and get out in a profitable way as opposed to a loss.

[7:00:24] We built Tasty Trades web platform for today's traders. See it, click it, trade it. Research with fundamentals, endless forecasts, and more. Drill into data, find opportunity, and track the action with hundreds of indicators. Track your

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[7:01:18] the alarm. >> Hey, bring the alarm, boys. Turn up the charm. Listen up, y'all. Get out the damn song. It's the last call. >> Hey, the last call. The last call. The last call.

[7:01:31] trading day here. You're watching Tasty Live. He's TP Tom Preston. I'm CV. Chris Veio. Tom, this market feels like it's been in a stasis for most of the day again. Just like yesterday after an initial pop. They're killing our little

[7:01:47] initial pop. They're killing our little NASDAQ. Chris, look at it. Look at it. They're just dancing on its grave. They're just stomping it down. NDX down 147. But okay, say you're going to Well, you know, Tom, it's only down half a

[7:02:02] percent. But still, Chris, they're they're rallying the S&Ps and they're killing the poor little NASDAQ. What is what's the meaning of this? It's an outrage. >> 30,000 is just not the level that people

[7:02:15] [laughter] >> Yeah. No kidding. No kidding. So, I did a quick little little test of uh just simple how many stocks are up, how many simple how many stocks are up, how many stocks are down. um the NASDAQ about let

[7:02:30] me check one last time before I tell people because I don't want to mislead. So in the NASDAQ

[7:02:42] So in the NASDAQ 44 so in other words 56 almost 2/3 of the stocks were down a little over half of the stocks were down today. Um in the S&Ps 240 242 were up. So 44 stocks of the

[7:02:58] 240 242 were up. So 44 stocks of the NASDAQ 100 were up. 242 of the um of the NASDAQ 100 were up. 242 of the um of the S SPX were up. So, it's about 5050 um S SPX were up. So, it's about 5050 um both ways. A little more in favor of the

[7:03:12] uh of the S&P. So, I can see why that's seeing a little bit of strength up a little bit today to in this afternoon. But the NASDAQ, yeah, it's just it's it's a pretty broad selloff of the NASDAQ.

[7:03:25] >> Yeah, you're looking for some places to hang your hat today. Uh not in telecom, not in technology or well, really anything. Certainly not semiconductors TP which had a pretty decent pullback. Uh how are you managing any position

[7:03:39] here? I know you're a bit of a zero DTE guy. So we get through the US market we've had a little bit of a rebound here. Still a 90 plus IVR and when we flip over to the trade tab you have some very healthy volatilities. Obviously

[7:03:52] like a Micron or a SanDisk, you're going to get a little bit more involved there. to get a little bit more involved there. So surely this this lured you in. >> Yeah. I mean, I put on a bunch of trades. I sold a put spread in Corweave,

[7:04:08] sold uh naked puts in um uh General Mills, sold an iron condor in XLF. It sold a put spread in Netflix with a day to go with two days to go. Um so I've

[7:04:22] done a lot of lot of little trades like this today. As you're saying, Chris, I backed away from sawing anything in the S&P today only because I was think eh, you know what? I I couldn't get a clear direction. We'll see if anybody late

[7:04:37] comes in and tries to cover any shorts in the S&Ps this afternoon. I But I'd be surprised because what we're seeing now is an even further drop in the NDX.

[7:04:50] I'm not sure. I I I would like to I did not I did not put on any new positions after I closed my early S&P trades today. So, you know, put on a bunch of stuff at at 9:00, took them off 10:30 and 11, but I

[7:05:08] did not reestablish anything. And right now, yeah, the the S&P looks a little heavy into the close. I'm not sure if we're going to see any any late rally. I I don't know, Chris. I don't have a strong feeling one way or the other.

[7:05:22] >> What did you do in GIS, General Mills? I don't think I've ever traded this >> No. See, and that's the whole point. So, what did I do? I sold a 35 put with 37 what did I do? I sold a 35 put with 37 days to go. Um, General Mills, again,

[7:05:37] the only reason I did this as part of the wheel the I don't the you know the wheel strategy where you sell the out of the money put and if the stock goes up If the stock goes down, you take delivery of the stock, sell a call

[7:05:52] against it. That's the wheel. Um, that's not a cornerstone of my portfolio, but I like to talk about it. I did it in my 1:00 show, and it is those a stock like

[7:06:04] gold, GIS, I want to say Goldman Sachs, GIS, General Mills with a what, a $36 stock price is accessible. the capital requirements for selling naked puts in

[7:06:16] requirements for selling naked puts in there not huge because it's a $36 stock, right? So the lower the stock price, the lower the capital requirements for for naked short naked short options. Okay, fine. The other point is and again

[7:06:29] dividends are not a cornerstone of the my strategy or even the wheel strategy, but it off the the dividend yield is 6.69%ed there. That's pretty high. So, if you do take delivery of the stock, if you are

[7:06:42] hit on those puts and you know they're in the money at expiration, you buy the in the money at expiration, you buy the stock at 30 uh at 35, fine. You start collecting a 6% plus dividend, you sell some calls against it. That's that's the

[7:06:57] strategy. So, that's why I sold it there. And the liquidity in those puts is pretty good. I was surprised. I was surprised. >> Yeah. Yeah, I mean they're 5 cents wide and open interest in these positions,

[7:07:09] the 32 and a half and the 30 five are pretty steep. You know, 8,700 contracts there. >> I saw it pop up. I did a it it the the the statistical this popped up when I did my search for

[7:07:23] big statistical moves this morning. I go through the indexes, NASDAQ, S&Ps, and say, "Okay, out of all those stocks, which ones are the big statistical which ones are the big statistical changes um that combines percent change

[7:07:37] with volatility?" And GIS was one of them. It's like General Mills. So, it's But again, they're coming they're going in, Chris, for these what do you call

[7:07:49] in, Chris, for these what do you call them? The consumer non-durables or the >> whatever they are. Staples >> st Thank you. Thank you. You get your I guess General Mills makes cereal and and and stuff. Shows you what I know, right?

[7:08:02] But the point is they make stuff that people will need, will buy, whatever. Um, for whatever reason, they're up today. And I sold another put like that today. And I sold another put like that in K in KHC, Craft Hind. Again, you put

[7:08:17] flakes or whatever it is, and you put your Craft Hind ketchup on your cornflakes. what better combination is there? So, I sold a put in each one of these and it's like me, okay, high probability of profit. If they if I get

[7:08:32] sell some calls against it, collect the dividend. That's it. >> Fascinating. Fascinating. Craft hinds, you know, of you to do it outside of people consume the most ketchup and mustard during the year.

[7:08:46] >> Well, see, that's just it. And I figured what's what what is more American Chris than slathering ket. Now see I don't like ketchup that much. Um but you know people slather ketchup on everything nowadays. In the old days you know

[7:09:01] ketchup was it was a hamburger thing. Now people put them on hot dogs which is which is they back in you know when Dante wrote you know his Divine Comedy

[7:09:13] had the whole circles of hell. They put ketchup on hot dogs. I think it's the fifth circle of hell. So it's >> sixth as a as an afficionado of ketchup hell. Let me talk. >> Exactly. It's it's just like I don't get

[7:09:29] it. I think I think they're coming up with legislation against that to prohibit that. And I would be for it. I would I would support a prohibition against ketchup on. But anyway, Craft Times, they make some of actually. Yeah,

[7:09:42] they make mustard, too. So, that's fine. So, two two condiments with one stock. What's not to love? What did I do in there? I'll tell you exactly what I did. there? I'll tell you exactly what I did. I sold the KHC.

[7:09:56] I sold the 24 half put with 23 days. >> So, just on the other side of earnings here, uh 23 and a half put. So, collecting about 20 cents. What's this? Mid >> 24 half. I sold the 24 half. Um, but

[7:10:10] >> Yeah. So, there's the there's the 24 $436 of buying power here. You're And the risk-to-reward again, the max profit, max loss is way upside down. And

[7:10:22] you're usually we're usually more fans of risk defined options trading around here. But for this particular strategy, you're comfortable with getting assigned because it's a high dividend paying stock, you could just sell calls against

[7:10:34] it. And worse comes to worse, you get called away and all of a sudden the bit of money on it. >> That's it. That's it, Chris. It's It's one. These are two. Do I know anything about these stocks? No. Do I do any sort

[7:10:50] of, you know, technical analysis or anything? No, I just thought, eh, they're up. The skew is pointed to the upside. And I just said, okay, where can I collect some premium? Where what gives me a good riskreward ratio? And that's

[7:11:05] me a good riskreward ratio? And that's all this is. That's all this is. I do this is one of about 30 trades I did today or two of 30 trades I did today. today or two of 30 trades I did today. So it's not I'm not banking, you know,

[7:11:18] I'm not banking. Oh gee, I hope this this and I can't get the words General Mills out of my I want to call it Goldman Sachs, but it's not Goldman Sachs. General Mills or Craft Hinds. I don't know. It's Yeah. Sold selling some

[7:11:31] don't know. It's Yeah. Sold selling some puts. the bank stocks. I also sold an iron condor and XLF just because I couldn't get a clear direction from the skew, but XLF and I know we're talking about this yesterday about the liquidity

[7:11:44] about this yesterday about the liquidity in XLF and the markets are pretty tight in there. I I was, you know, contrary to what Frank Walsh was saying, >> They Yeah, they were listening. They tight They were afraid of Frankie,

[7:11:56] understandably. I'm afraid of Frankie, too. Guys got the hardest stomach in the world. You do you can't you can't hurt the guy. So other day that's like so dot dot dot. I'm like oh my god oh gosh what did what

[7:12:10] [laughter] >> So the point is it's like I was looking at the skew stocks trading 56 and a half. So right in between 56 57. I looked down a couple of points you know down to like the 54 puts up to the 59

[7:12:27] calls. I saw them basically trading at the same prices and I did two point iron the same prices and I did two point iron condors in them. Um, dragged it out Actually, I pulled it and I think I did

[7:12:40] Actually, I pulled it and I think I did the 58. I'd have to open up my platform. the 58. I'd have to open up my platform. That's what I did. 75 cents. And it's it's just a it's just a trade and it's got decent metric. 68% probability. I

[7:12:53] think that's a 68 67 68% probability making half of its profit which is about making half of its profit which is about 35 bucks 36 37 bucks before expiration I generate a dollar of theta per day again Chris another

[7:13:09] relatively lowrisk relatively easy product to trade not saying easy to make money but markets are tight volatility is relatively high

[7:13:21] >> You know, I was paying attention to the MAG 7 breakout today. It feels like considering that the NASDAQ's still down and that speaks to how important the >> part of the NASDAQ recently, right? The MAG 7 is up 2% and the headline NASDAQ

[7:13:36] is down in the day. Wow. Wow. Wow. >> You open those up. >> But, you know, I jumped I jumped over into Amazon here, TP. Uh, you know, I bit of a move here. And so I I jumped into what you know the double bowl or

[7:13:49] the Super Bowl short the put spread long the call spread. I'm sitting out at 37 days uh short the 230 235 long the 285 290 it's a little bit of a bounce here. You know the technician of me sees maybe a bottom here 25 points up so we can get

[7:14:04] not hit but if it happens within the expiration cycle maybe the next week or two then I'll be able to flip those options for a handsome profit. So I'm very content about the structure here

[7:14:16] >> and and to your point about you know the consumer non durables or the the the stables or whatever you call them. >> Um that could also be true coming through for Amazon. You know that hey if if people are feeling a little bit more

[7:14:32] flush and Chris you and I have talked about the K-shaped economy for for a while just personally. You know what? You and I have had this discussion and like I say, it always life is always hard if you don't have

[7:14:45] money. It doesn't really matter what inflation does. Um, if you can't afford, inflation does. Um, if you can't afford, you know, a a $5 cup of coffee, you can't afford it when it's $7. So even though the price of that co cup of

[7:15:00] coffee went up from, you know, two bucks, it doesn't matter. You couldn't have bought it anyway at $5. So a lot of folks unfortunately this is what makes folks unfortunately this is what makes this you know it's so hard is people are

[7:15:13] inflation doesn't matter they didn't have any couldn't buy anything anyway and the people that do have money the right hand side of the K they've got more money they don't care on the utility curve sure they don't care if

[7:15:26] they're spending another $2 for a cup of coffee or another $2 for a thing of eggs >> they got plenty of it >> that's I mean I remember talking with My parents have a very classic, you know, uh, Italian immigrant story. Lived

[7:15:39] in big houses or small houses with big families. Everyone shared a one bathroom chain and made something of themselves. So, my my parents have done well for building their law firms. I remember during the 2024 election cycle, my dad

[7:15:52] being like, I I didn't realize how much this cost of living thing, you know, dad, you know, when my cost of groceries go up by like $25 over the course of a week, that means that there may be, you know, $100 an extra a month for you.

[7:16:04] That's pocket change. You don't even think about that. Uh and so if I'm in are further down the totem pole and that's like a huge societal problem right now. You mentioned consumer goods that are price indifferent at the high

[7:16:17] end of the spectrum. Apple is probably the best place to look for that right now. TP, I mean, if it's not because of consumers that they're not spending too much money on, memory is collapsing today, so that's good for their margins.

[7:16:29] surging to new all-time highs on this kind of weak tape when the NASDAQ is still churning? you buy it. I mean, it's 325. Again, Chris, all it is, if you when you throw a question like that to me, I just

[7:16:42] go to the skew. I That's all I have. That's all I have. What are the option prices telling me? So, the 325, you know, I don't care. The 32593 is close bucks to the 320 puts. They're trading

[7:16:56] at 410. Ask ask price to ask price three. The 330 calls 525. So, the skew is pointed to the upside. I don't want to trade through earnings just cuz I to trade through earnings just cuz I don't want to. Um, let's go down and

[7:17:10] sell. I don't know, maybe the 3 What do I get I don't know, maybe the 3 What do I get for selling the 320 317 half um put for selling the 320 317 half um put spread? Um, it's not bad. It's a little

[7:17:23] cheap. It's 62 cents. I'd like to collect 80 cents for that. No, you know what, Chris? The markets are too wide in this stuff. Those th those markets stink. >> Not a fan. Not a fan. Yeah. You know,

[7:17:35] that I was here today, TSM to me gave a little bit of a dip today, right back to that 50-day, and it's seemingly hugging it for months now. Little oscillations on either side of it, the blue line. But if it's still in an uptrend, then it's

[7:17:47] anything. >> Well, earnings are coming out. TSM is uh they have earnings on tomorrow, probably after the close. Um again volatility is

[7:18:00] jacked up in those things like 60% tomorrow's options the two-day options 74% overall IV it drops down obviously as you go further past uh earnings but

[7:18:12] again high volatility even go going out to the 9day 16 23s etc etc I would you know I'm just generally bullish on this stuff I would sell

[7:18:25] again I would so I don't want to Sorry about Apple anymore, but there were but there's decent liquidity in some of the closer expirations. Let's go and look at 420 400 440. Yeah, the skews up to the upside. If I

[7:18:41] Yeah, the skews up to the upside. If I can sell these are 10 point wide. So I could go in the 37day options the August expiration. Sell the 380 390 put spread. expiration. Sell the 380 390 put spread. Buy the 380, sell the 390 for 335.

[7:18:56] That's all it is. Chris, it's a third of the width of the strikes. That's good enough for me. Um 78% probability making half the max profit. Risk one to lose two. I'm going to ship this at 335. See if I get filled. Liquidity is pretty

[7:19:13] >> You know, I I did a TSM trade myself today at 37 days to expiration. Uh 390,400. When I was able to get filled, it was um I think it was over 370 in credit, 380 in credit, which was nice. And so, yeah, TP, I mean, I saw that

[7:19:28] strikes, a third of the width of the strikes, >> It's It's just the mechanics of it, folks. It's just the mechanics of it. And you could disagree with us. You could say, "Oh, you know, Chris TP,

[7:19:43] you're absolutely wrong about Taiwan semicond. It's going to zero." Okay, fine. Sell a call spread in there. Fine. >> But [laughter] no, really, no, really. It's it for me, Chris, it's not about the direction. It's really isn't. Um,

[7:19:57] the direction. It's really isn't. Um, what's NASDAQ doing now? NDX, what's NASDAQ doing now? NDX, it's it's it's stopped falling. S&P again. S&P just maybe a little bit higher towards the close. The VIX though

[7:20:11] is killing me. >> Why is that? It's I'm short the with six short the 16 half puts in there and right now

[7:20:23] >> the futures price so it's okay Chris it's a defined risk trade I can handle I can handle selling a one point put spread in the is it the end of the world the world but I hate losing it I hate

[7:20:36] losing money on trades I I've been doing it for 30 years I still hate it my point it for 30 years I still hate it my point is the VIX cash is 1567. My only consolation, Chris, or I should say my only hope is that the actual VIX

[7:20:51] say my only hope is that the actual VIX future is trading at about 1660. >> Um about 10 cents above my short strike. That's where the that's where the July future is trading at. So if the two things converge, they will converge next

[7:21:07] expires. >> Expiration. Yeah. the the cash will the future will equal the cash. That's how it works. I just hope the cash moves up to the futures price and not vice versa where the future moves down to the cash

[7:21:22] price. That's what I'm betting on. >> Futures across the curve are getting >> And volatility right now. Cycle lows for both the July and the August expert. Hey TP, before we go further on this, we need to throw up a quick uh referral.

[7:21:35] Refer a friend as it were. >> $100 for you, $100 for your friend. the referral and the referral. That's the proper terminology I've been told. Uh they each get 100 bucks. Tastyrade.comrefer

[7:21:47] a friend. Tastyrade.comrefer friend TP. Uh yes, volatility down. That happened in today's market. Really the past two sessions. We had CPI yesterday morning. We had wars on Capitol Hill. We have Trump bombing Iran again. We have

[7:22:03] PPI this morning. We have worsh on Capitol Hill. We have Trump bombing Iran again. And volatility here is [laughter] right at session lows in bonds in stocks. I mean the bond market here today ZB the IVR slipped into negative

[7:22:18] >> Oh wait ZB ZB's up a little nine ticks today. What were we what were we saying about about bonds and notes? >> Well the relationship between note and bondvall but the volatility here across

[7:22:32] smacked out of this market. It's in gold. And even in oil it's coming back >> How do you square this? Is that like And given your experience, it is summer, but is that complacency? Why is everyone >> putting down their swords and shields

[7:22:47] >> Yeah. It's it's compl it's it's complacency. There's a certain amount of And I I don't I'm not a believer in cycles or anything like I don't see that, but people are just like, it's summer, you know, I don't want to take

[7:22:59] as much risk on, so I'll just take some stuff off, close out any positions that stuff off, close out any positions that I have. And it's the unless there's a big there, you know, we're heading into

[7:23:12] we're heading into the next earning cycle, unless there are a lot of surprises that would cause some big rebalancing or anything like that from hedge funds or or or people with big positions and stuff, the market could

[7:23:26] just be very quiet. you've been saying for 2 weeks now the low volume in things for 2 weeks now the low volume in things like it's something like ES right and it's just there's not that much activity and the lack of activity means uh people

[7:23:42] people don't have see a lot of risk going on they they're not hedging as much they're not you know taking taking one side or the other and the premium just gets pulled out you know it just gets it just gets crushed and that's

[7:23:55] gets it just gets crushed and that's what that's why That's why is it what that's why That's why is it justified? Who knows, right? Um I would justified? Who knows, right? Um I would buy I would look to get some long Vega

[7:24:07] here uh to be if you were bearish on the market. Um if volatility does go up, that would almost by definition mean the S&Ps are selling off. Um but you could do this in either spot. You could do it in Q's. Um you talk about what's weak

[7:24:21] in Q's. Um you talk about what's weak today. QQQ is the NASDAQ 100 ETF. I today. QQQ is the NASDAQ 100 ETF. I would use a diagonal. And diagonals are, you know, they're they're decent strategies. You buy um like a 67day in

[7:24:35] strategies. You buy um like a 67day in the money put, sell a, you know, a the money put, sell a, you know, a closer expiration where the the short put covers most if not all of the exttrinsic value of the longdated put.

[7:24:50] So, we can go over that, you know, when we have more time. But the idea is that you don't want to pay a huge amount for this stuff. But you are buying Vega, you

[7:25:02] >> Yeah. So, I'm just looking at the 750 here. Uh TP currently trading in at 43. >> Yeah. So, if you >> what $28 of intrinsic value

[7:25:14] >> what $28 of intrinsic value >> is is 14. Yeah. $15 of exttrinsic. $15 >> Yeah. So in other words, so in other words, the the the the put is in the money. Therefore, the corresponding call at the same strike is its out of the

[7:25:29] money equivalent. And that call is pure exttrinsic. So the extrinsic value I want to sell an option that might have about 14.90 or some or whatever whatever about 14.90 or some or whatever whatever I can get, you know. So if I go down to

[7:25:44] um what expiration like 37 days, can I sell a put go even further down Chris to >> 13 >> the Yeah. And can I sell do an out of

[7:25:57] the money? I would sell an out of the money put. So something like the those are in the monies. So yeah, down to the 600 the 600 handle. Um those are too cheap. go up a little bit like the 710 maybe

[7:26:12] >> 710 >> maybe uh what I can't number I think we need to go to 21 I think we got 23 days here to get where you want to go yeah >> so that's but that's the strategy that's

[7:26:24] >> so that's but that's the strategy that's the strategy and because I'm buying that further dated option I'm getting a little bit of long Vega so I'm buying some that that gets me short deltas and long vega

[7:26:37] minutes away from the close here. S&P 500 up still, we'll call it 22 points in chains. TP, uh, not a huge session. We've had a bunch of movement intraday, names. We haven't even really touched on them yet here, but uh, TP, one of the

[7:26:53] things that I look at every single day is, uh, this little dashboard called Ape Wisdom. It's a little tool that's online that scrapes the social media websites to see what traders are talking about. >> Top ticker today on Wall Street Bets has

[7:27:07] >> which which you know after yesterday's 25% decline it feels like a lot of people are looking here so yes Micron SanDisk the familiar names SK highix are on the top of the leaderboard as well but IBM here down again another two and

[7:27:21] earnings are coming up they gave that pre-earnings warning it's coming up next you're buying the dip here I think Liz bought the dip too if I was listening to her this morning >> buying the dip is hard um the the

[7:27:36] volatility is high in IBM, but if you're looking the 2-day options just don't have enough premium in them, there's just not enough. I mean, I guess I could just not enough. I mean, I guess I could buy the 207 212 call vertical. I mean, I

[7:27:51] could do that with two days to go. I would push that out though. Earnings are coming up next week. So, buying let's say a 9-day

[7:28:06] wanted to get long um IBM I would go out to 9 days past expiration and I would buy the 207 half 212 half

[7:28:18] call vertical. You say Tom, why would you buy a vertical call vertical when you could sell a put spread? because the put spreads really aren't giving me enough credit for for what I'm looking for. They just I mean actually it's not

[7:28:33] bad. I could sell the 2025. That would get me my my one/ird of the width of the strikes. But here's the deal. If IBM rallies up sharply, if it does, if it does, that long call vertical is going to make money faster

[7:28:48] than a short put spread. So, this would be more of a pure directional trade. Plus, it has positive theta. Chris, that trade has get generates a$128 of positive theta. I'm going to send that off 262. I'm going to buy it.

[7:29:03] >> I'm I'm I'm [clears throat] think about something a little bit different here because IBM it's >> it's IBM. I know every no one ever went, you know, lost their job buying Big Blue, but u Micron here is probably

[7:29:17] for tomorrow. It just I think it's going to fit the criteria of being below the going to have to talk about this pullback though. ASML was able to settle higher after its earnings thankfully. Uh held on to that. Liz flipped that over.

[7:29:31] But we have a lot to discuss here today. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Apple, Nvidia coming in next though to discuss them overtime. Tasty Live Programming is back after a brief break. See you there.

[7:29:46] after a brief break. See you there. Ready level? Dive into the world of stocks, options, and futures with Tasty Trade

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[7:31:10] it. Join the club. Tasty trade. >> Explain pots. >> Pot odds is my favorite term. Uh, but

[7:31:27] pot odds in the poker world or gambling world refers to having a greater payout than your implied odds would would suggest. So let's say I have 3 to [music] one odds to win a pot, but the pot is giving me 4:1 odds to make that

[7:31:42] bet. I would have a positive expected value over time. So in trading, let's say you have a defined risk debit or [music] credit spread that's currently at a max loss. And let's say there's 30 days left to go. There's not really a

[7:31:54] you're already at max loss. You can only go up from there. So in that scenario, that would be a positive pot odd scenario or something that would give us scenario or something that would give us pot [music] odds to stay in.

[7:32:24] Seven. They love that stuff. Ilia, it's still Wednesday, July 15th, 2026. You're Veio in New York. He's your co-host, Ilia Spivac, in San Francisco. We're here to take you through the next 26 minutes as we wind down the trading day

[7:32:38] here. Ilia, a trading day, a couple of days defined by inflation data. Kevin Walsh on the hill. We've had ASML earnings. We're getting ready for the is likewise reporting. >> Mhm.

[7:32:51] with the fact that we're entering a Fed communication blackout window just around the corner as we prep ourselves for that next Fed meeting in two weeks time from today. Either way though, the market seems to be fascinated, fixated

[7:33:03] on the Korean meltdown that takes place apparently overnight every night and then jerks around. >> Not yesterday in fairness, but only only just so. >> Uh SK Highix had a healthy 9% correction

[7:33:16] in today's market. We have Micron down a healthy 8.1% in today's market. Semiconductors, broadly speaking, down 1.6%. I have a Ilia, because I know what you're thinking. Those are starting to look

[7:33:28] like rounding out head and shoulders patterns and I see it too. Uh but the mag sevens are the ones that are up on the day and they actually close as a basket at their highest level that we've seen going back um almost over a month

[7:33:40] now. Actually over a month now to early June, the first week of June, uh up 2.3%. Could I just point out how much this market's changed over the past few months that the MAG 7 are up 2.3% and

[7:33:52] out a green close >> still down by 210 of a percent. I mean just goes to show how much the AI infrastructure trade has subsumed everything else become such an important part of the market. Now granted the

[7:34:05] semis the semi names were down 5 6 7 8 9 10% today that's not a 2% gain for the be bigger than the other even if the waitings are different. I digress. >> The point here is Ilia and I brought this up with you on our little futures

[7:34:20] this up with you on our little futures 30inut episode today. Uh volatility is >> Yes. I mean, this is this is forget the money made or lost today. Low volume, bouncing around. It all kind of feels like window dressing to me. Um, but the

[7:34:35] low volatility after CPI, after PPI, after wars on the hill, after Trump is restarting bombing with Iran, promising to do more, why don't people care?

[7:34:47] >> It's a good question. Um, I think you start to get to this thing. Um, and don't care, I think it's important to note stocks don't care. Other markets

[7:35:02] care, but that's been the story really since late February, early March is that other markets care and stocks are off on their own thing. Stocks had a a brief

[7:35:15] flirtation with the war trade at the start of the conflict. It was over by late uh March, early April. Then they went off on their own thing. We're

[7:35:27] getting into the next earning season here. Last time that divergence came with an earnings season where all of the hyperscalers came out and basically made like a rap video and made it rain. And now uh everybody's looking and going,

[7:35:43] "Well, the expectations are skyhigh. Are you going to make it rain again? How much more money you going to pour into this thing? How many more numbers in the triple digit billions will you wave in front of our face? And I think the

[7:35:59] answer is >> you don't have enough numbers because they were so incredible last time. time. We've already priced in such a flying

[7:36:14] We've already priced in such a flying unicorn scenario here that you are in a place where the bar is really really high and the meltdown in these names in high and the meltdown in these names in South Korea tells you that story. People

[7:36:28] South Korea tells you that story. People want to take profit. NASDAQ can't go anywhere. And that's an interesting setup here. Uh And that's an interesting setup here. Uh because stocks again briefly flirted

[7:36:42] start of the week when crude oil spiked again for about a day on Monday. We got regular war trade dynamics. >> Goodbye. That's it. >> The oil flow stops.

[7:36:57] >> The oil flow stops. >> Can't do it. Nobody cares. Now, maybe Netflix does something because it is a nominally tech name. We'll see. But I think we might have to wait until

[7:37:13] the big tech names come back around because it seems like everybody with any exposure here, which given the low volumes is not very many pe people. Uh maybe they're sitting here going, "Oh, just just just give me the magic number,

[7:37:28] baby. I'll be okay." But maybe the magic number is not coming. Netflix today. Uh because volatility is fairly high here. It's a 98.8 IVR and >> right? Options are tomorrow. Options earnings are tomorrow. So, we have a two

[7:37:44] >> You know, >> there's a great preview of those earnings on tasty.com written by our very own Mr. Mike Butler. So, folks want to go to the news and insights portion of the website. Lest you think it's all

[7:37:59] video, it's not. I've been furiously writing for the site. So have you. And writing for the site. So have you. And Mike has a great preview of Netflix. Get your bearings, folks. >> So, one of the reasons uh why this I put

[7:38:12] on a call butterfly here on Netflix. Uh few reasons. One, the market, you don't get paid on these if volatility is low. You only get paid out on these if the volatility is pretty high and if you kind of stick the landing, right? So,

[7:38:26] example, if we were to just do it again here, Ilia, you'd see it's going to be something in the order of like max loss of $12 for a max profit of 188. It's dice, but you get that kind of payout because the volatility is high and you

[7:38:41] zone here. Max profit is near 80 bucks. Uh the idea here would be that we have a significant amount of open interest at this level right now. 60 me 41,000

[7:38:53] contracts up here at the $80 uh call. And so if Netflix is able to get a rally, I feel like because of all that activity right around 80, that's where the market might gravitate to. if there's a bounce and spending 14

[7:39:08] bucks when I put it on for, you know, more than a 10 times upside. I have a target area to work with right now. So, it's not, you know, I I I I exploring a we can get a trade that gets off, we have high volatility, we have a big

[7:39:24] strike with significant open interest around it, maybe post earnings, if it's a good reaction, it's going to go there. And if it does nilia, I'm out. Like I bottle of water. Excuse me, a salad and a bottle of water. I would be out less

[7:39:38] I'm okay with that kind of risk-to-reward on short-term little bets. Sure. I mean Sure. I mean really all of the action today for me

[7:39:51] really all of the action today for me was in the bonds because I have such a such a comfortable way of dealing with the disconnect between my bearishness on

[7:40:03] the disconnect between my bearishness on the AI narrative as not because I don't believe in AI. I absolutely think it is the transformational technology that we are being led to believe. I'm I'm not one of these people that sits there and

[7:40:18] goes, "Ah, it's all all of it is overdone and LLMs aren't even really that intelligent, yada yada yada." I I use it every day. It's great. Um, whatever it is, and it's

[7:40:32] a productivity uh lifter, no question. Uh, so I look at this and I say this feels like every time we get one of of these types of breakthrough technologies, be it electrification or the car or the steam

[7:40:46] electrification or the car or the steam engine or railroads, whatever it is, engine or railroads, whatever it is, telecoms, there is a hype phase that gets overdone and everybody realizes they've overextulated.

[7:40:58] There's a reset and we get the long arc. My sense is we're getting close to that My sense is we're getting close to that reset. And so I don't love being long reset. And so I don't love being long stocks, but at the same time, fighting a

[7:41:12] market that doesn't want to go down is a recipe for disaster. And so because of recipe for disaster. And so because of the skew in these options markets, been taking advantage of. I've talked about it a lot where you can sell calls

[7:41:27] and sit and you receive better than one to one riskreward, which means you can sell these rich calls and you and you can lock [clears throat] in a max loss on your short call

[7:41:42] vertical that is smaller than the premium received upfront, premium received upfront, which is great riskreward and gives you which is great riskreward and gives you lots of room. So, okay, I'm just going

[7:41:55] to keep doing that because in my mind, we are who knows how many steps, but not many who knows how many steps, but not many from a correlation once selloff where

[7:42:08] all of these differences between this stock or that stock, that sector, this sector, that goes away because markets just go to cash and sell everything. about we could use the SIBOS core 1M

[7:42:20] across the market for individual stocks compared to the headline index right now. Um I have that sitting on my screen. Where did you go? 3.65% which is pretty dang well the >> Did you just quote a correlation in

[7:42:34] percentage terms? >> 3.65. Uh so yeah when when >> yes I will think about that >> we're as we as we look at volatility >> we're as we as we look at volatility with with that low um it's a stock

[7:42:48] picker market still you can get a lot of chop and a lot of churn it's high dispersion yeah if implied correlation starts to rise from these levels when it something's bad is happening because people are panicking

[7:43:01] >> but that's not to say that you can get a great piece of news I mean remember on great piece of news I mean remember on what was it April 9th 2020 25 when Trump came out and reversed his tariff decision. We were live on air when that

[7:43:13] happened. The NASDAQ rallied 12% that day and so everything rallied. And yes, correlations. The core 1 index shot up not on a bad day, but a bad day. >> When core 1M goes from a low level to an

[7:43:26] usually because of something negative happening in the market. But right now, market. And that leads you to the idea, Ilia, that you could see still more churn here at the top line. Maybe we do scratch and claw a little bit higher as

[7:43:39] for the past few weeks. It's not making great progress, environment where >> uh because of that churn, call sellers, particularly risk defined call sellers in your case, like in the NASDAQ,

[7:43:53] And I don't want to dismiss that. There's so many ways to skin the cat right now. So, as long as as long as this yo-yoing, zigzagging keeps place, we're >> in what feels like a very

[7:44:08] algorithmically driven market where we're, you know, 29,250 up to 30,000 and then right back to the other side of it. Oops, overshoot. Have to correct here prescheduled programming. What's with that?

[7:44:22] change for tomorrow. There's nothing to do different. Today is window dressing in this market. Yeah. I mean, I'm looking at this and Yeah. I mean, I'm looking at this and what sort of strikes me here is

[7:44:36] what sort of strikes me here is the story is in the box the story is in the box because here I'm getting frankly just because here I'm getting frankly just tossed around and thank God that the TLT

[7:44:48] tossed around and thank God that the TLT contract is incredibly liquid. Um, and wall is zero. So you can essentially So you can essentially just just look for a second at at

[7:45:02] >> that's why I point that's why I point out so if you have a a ticker it can't ETF or a single stock name you can type in that ticker and then type in IVR afterwards and it's going to give you a chart of the implied volatility. So IVR

[7:45:16] everything got crushed in terms of all. Why does no one care? And it's not just stocks on a relative basis. We're now in the half percentile for volatility in TLT over the past year. >> 0.5.

[7:45:29] don't care. The bond market threw in the towel of sorts today saying, "Ah, >> Yeah. >> What you do about nothing? >> Yeah. The bond market said, "Forget it." And this idea,

[7:45:45] I was talking about this yesterday. I said, "Why isn't gold breaking down? This is weird. If we're really going back to the war trade for real, for real, gold should break down." It didn't. And again, it's been the tell.

[7:46:02] Now, I got out of my gold exposure on the long side earlier this week. I'm not prepared to get back in yet. Let's see. We still got a a whole lot of data this week. I don't want to get tossed around too much. But this is why the the these

[7:46:17] 1 ounce futures are so good. You trade them like a currency. You don't have to go big. You don't have to put yourself in a lot of exposure. I have been really enjoying putting on one contract and just seeing will it break? No. Okay.

[7:46:33] just seeing will it break? No. Okay. Book the little loss. Keep moving. Book the little loss. Keep moving. I've reversed my exposure in the pound and in the euro just over the past maybe three four days. Could I uh could I

[7:46:46] substantiate your views? >> Yes, please. I love confirmation bias. It's the best of all the biases. >> It is. Uh note that came out today from Saxo from Ole Hansen over there pointing out the relationship.

[7:47:02] out the relationship. >> Shouts to the Saxo uh research team. >> We have the relationship between gold and the dollar here in the bottom lefth inverted. >> Both of those are inverted in the bottom

[7:47:15] right hand side of the chart. Uh what do you see here, Ilia? Those look like they're pretty tight relationships. Higher yield and a stronger dollar have been very problematic for gold recently. So that brings us to

[7:47:27] >> what happened today in DXY. Maybe this is maybe this is the sign that I myself need to get out not only of any dollar longs but also um any gold short position that I have right now because if we go back over a year effectively in

[7:47:41] here in DXY this PAR level just over par has clearly been a line in the sand. A because the euro is the largest component of the dollar index. And if we were to draw a line right at a long, >> if we were to like 115 or so, you could

[7:47:56] see how this is really the point over the past year. 115 114 and a half is the euro looks like it's maybe trying to turn a corner again. First, flip that basically a month since June 16th, although that wasn't a great time to buy

[7:48:12] for what it's worth. Um, but you know, like if the dollar is about to come off, if US Treasury yields because we now have the inflation uh boogeyman off of have the inflation uh boogeyman off of our backs, CPI, PPI came in good, then

[7:48:25] gold probably looks like a good long again. But yearly, here's the deal for me. Trump is out here talking about bombing Iran consistently. And in the aftermarket hours, as much as I want to get on board

[7:48:37] something like tonight, crude oil is bouncing up a little bit here. It's still That's too far out. Uh but crude oil is still sticking around. It had a nice little bump here towards the end of the day. Uh Trump is on the on the

[7:48:50] microphone right now talking about how Iran desperately wants a deal. them. >> That's uh how they're behaving. They're behaving like they desperately want a deal. Wink wink nudge nudge. That's why

[7:49:03] they turned this peace deal into another shootout. Let's not forget they restarted it >> for sure. They kept their minds in there stopped. >> Yeah. So, uh yeah, they they man they

[7:49:17] desperately want that deal. >> Is this a long opportunity in crude? We ran a poll earlier today. >> I I as you know I've been long and I >> I I as you know I've been long and I added so I'm fine here.

[7:49:33] >> I'm looking for this to keep going. We ran a poll in the chat earlier today, Ilia, uh about how traders are approaching believe. >> They seem to be mostly on my side, which

[7:49:45] Uh >> I I that makes me terribly uncomfortable. I much >> I love because I like being a contrarian and that gives me more comfort when I

[7:50:00] have to argue with people yelling at me that I'm wrong. that gives me more conviction. Um because >> is that a sickness? >> Of course it is. >> Of course it is. Uh my my um formative

[7:50:15] experience in the markets was in the first half of08 screaming at anybody that would listen that decoupling is insane, that the US was going to infect the world with a terrible recession and crisis. uh and that the dollar was going

[7:50:31] to rally because of it because everyone would go to cash. Um that was still my best year in the markets ever because I leveraged on that idea like an idiot. Um as only a first year um schmuck would do. Uh but man man did it work.

[7:50:48] >> Um so that was my first year as an >> 19th year. 19th year being a schmuck I >> that was my first year as an analyst. Uh my third year in finance. So I this poll here, 44% of people say that oil looks like a continuation long right now. 36%

[7:51:03] are saying it's a dead cap bounce to short and then another 20% are saying that it's just uh trading both sides, which hear you out on that. Uh I still bunch of the like I'm so I don't need to revisit that. We're moving on to the

[7:51:15] next trade. Ilia 4hour chart right now. We have this zone near 77 and a half. Um here going back through the middle of June and then we've been basing above June and then we've been basing above here. This feels a lot like a flag. It

[7:51:29] with that view. Maybe we get a little bit of a squeeze to the upside right now through the end of the week before the weekend and then the war. I can't week. I thought I thought there was only on weekends.

[7:51:44] >> I mean, this is this this this kind of speaks to the idea that Iran has the initiative. I think war on the weekends is a um is a Washington preference.

[7:51:57] I think that's a Washington preference as well. Yeah, volatility is not high enough to warrant something like a butterfly, but doing something like a long call spread where you're throwing down maybe two, three to make one. Maybe

[7:52:10] that's not high enough to warrant this. Ilia, we can go out another 8283. I mean, we'd have to get a squeeze. What's another $3 between friends and oil prices? Another 5% by the end of the

[7:52:24] week. I don't know if I like that. I'm not sure that I like that that much, but we have two days to expiration and we have a clear level of interest right now below 77. So, so

[7:52:36] interesting today to just take a interesting today to just take a completely hard uh pivot but not obviously everybody's focused on oil as a driver of inflation and will it won't

[7:52:50] it is it sticky is it not one Kevin Worsh was back on Capitol Hill um apparently he hasn't done enough of these because when you try to get an image of him uh in your favorite AI

[7:53:04] image of him uh in your favorite AI image generator, it produces some sort of uh madness even if you give it by name. Um but uh when you were trying to name. Um but uh when you were trying to make an image of u Jay Powell

[7:53:18] make an image of u Jay Powell photographic quality um so uh I digress, but he was back on Capitol Hill today and somebody asked him, "Hey um this AI boom looks kind of inflationary, doesn't it? What do you make of that?" and he

[7:53:33] was like, "It's not a big deal." But of course, it's possibly the big deal. Uh because an interesting bit in the PPI numbers today that everybody was the PPI numbers today that everybody was so happy about was core PPI went up

[7:53:48] because all of the relief in the headline was for the most part energy. headline was for the most part energy. Uh there was a drop of 6.4% 4% month Uh there was a drop of 6.4% 4% month overmonth in energy uh prices. And where

[7:54:04] did we see uh a little bit more weakness? The usual suspects, transportation and warehousing. Uh food got a little bit cheaper, which is wanted to make the case that fertilizer is another thing being disrupted by the

[7:54:18] straight, you could connect those dots. I'm a little reluctant, but so it goes. I'm a little reluctant, but so it goes. Uh but actual core PPI went up a bit

[7:54:30] Uh but actual core PPI went up a bit after being flat the previous month. So is the AI thing inflationary? Well, Kevin Worse would like to make the case. It seems like that eventually it will be wage expanding and productivity boosting

[7:54:46] and it will be the kind of inflation now that beckons more supply. That's cute and all, but with all the hyperscalers announcing all those big numbers we've been talking about, the supply has been beckoned. The problem is

[7:55:01] not that. The problem is that it's choking the consumer. So, as we look into the retail sales numbers uh coming up and the consumer confidence numbers on Friday, all of this makes for a really interesting thing where yeah,

[7:55:17] oil, okay, whatever. market might be starting to look for a market might be starting to look for a new bogey. And if the consumer is the move in the bond starts making sense, the moves in gold start making

[7:55:31] sense, the moves in the dollar start making sense, and the evaporating of Fed rate high costs. That makes sense. go shopping again. I put some things into the book today. ASML worked out had

[7:55:47] the session. So, that worked out nicely and this feels like a decent hold for the time being. Uh, short the put spread 1680 1660 37 days out below the 50-day short strike. So, if something changes, we'll have a pretty good heads up about

[7:56:02] it hopefully. But this is a nice little turn higher. It feels like a little shift in momentum perhaps happening right now. Ellia, I'm just going to squint here. Slow stochcastics technically left over sold territory

[7:56:14] today. It's a 22 reading on the on the bottom line there and momentum is starting to get less bearish in MACDI right now. So something to consider, but couldn't get filled. I tried getting

[7:56:26] because it's right in the zone between the 21 and the 50. So I'm going to try this. But recent pivot level here, Ilia is about 240 and our 50day is 242. So

[7:56:38] is about 240 and our 50day is 242. So right here at 37 days, you know, 240, 230, I want a little bit more weakness cuz it's not quite a third of the width of the strikes. We want $3 and change in credit. This is over $10. This is $10

[7:56:51] wide. So it's not quite fitting the bill just yet to justify the trade, but watch listing it for tomorrow. Um, beyond that, I might add into some Amazon, some more Amazon, uh, that I picked up today on the breakout.

[7:57:05] But today was really just about tending the crops. I felt like the market really didn't do much after PPI. It had that intraday jiggle, but then bounced back PPI and another wash. So, what's going to

[7:57:19] story. >> What what's what's going to move the market tomorrow? Is it >> retail sales? retail sales and initial jobless claims. >> Yeah, I think I think retail sales is

[7:57:31] big. Um, and the expectation is we're going to get a 0.2% rise uh which would be a slowdown. The important thing to remember about retail sales is it's not adjusted for inflation. So when there is a price impetus, it's just price times

[7:57:46] volume. That's it. So if the price of oil is down, which what which is what you just saw in the CPI and the PPI numbers, they had the first declines in

[7:57:58] ages month on month largely because the price of energy cratered in May and >> And you're going to see that in these retail sales n it's it's going to be a weak number. And it's going to be a weak number because

[7:58:13] the price of oil is down. So anything people bought at gas stations became cheaper. Uh now what's interesting about this is gasoline is not necessarily >> Gas. >> So if you look at Arb here,

[7:58:28] >> gas futures have surged in recent years, >> right? But look at the fall in gasoline and then look at the fall in crude. Crude fell and erased the war. >> Gasoline did not. No, because we drew down our inventories to supply the world

[7:58:42] with the the the energy that they needed as a result of the street of hormuz like we don't have the refineries here. >> Well, also nobody's refining anything in >> No, which is but >> there's a shortage of refined product

[7:58:55] >> All around the world. >> Diesel prices are marching back towards their highs. Gas futures, Ilia, you know, you mentioned RB. So, I'm just We were trading 280 at the end of June. We're up to 330 now. We're almost back

[7:59:08] to wartime highs on Arbop and so >> so 14% rally in gas past two weeks. >> Yeah. So yeah, crude oil is down blahy da but we're going to see here what these

[7:59:22] retail sales say about the squeeze that the consumer is feeling. If there is not meaningful relief enough because this is sales at gas stations, not sales at your

[7:59:34] sales at gas stations, not sales at your uh local crude barrel emporium wherever wherever you buy your barrels of crude to refine in your backyard. Um we are looking at a very different kind of a situation and if there is a real squeeze

[7:59:49] situation and if there is a real squeeze on consumers on the core side of things in retail sales. >> All right. All right. All right. We're Ilia, I have to cut you off. You have too much macro on the brain.

[8:00:02] Wednesday, July 15th, 2026. We'll be back tomorrow, same time plays 4 call. Don't worry though, there's more macro coming at you. IA's here to talk about the inflation data and what it actually means up next on Macro Money.

[8:00:16] actually means up next on Macro Money. See you there everybody.

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[8:04:03] apparently we don't have a problem. That's if you take a look at how the markets thought about it and what we heard on the second day of testimony from one Kevin Walsh back on Capitol Hill today. But markets are sending some

[8:04:19] interesting signals here as we get a real test of whether we are in fact in real test of whether we are in fact in the clear and whether we actually still have an issue on our hands. This is Macro Money. I'm Spac, head of Global

[8:04:33] Macro here at Tasty Live and we're going to unpick what uh the markets did here price action. We're going to look at what the inflation data batch number two

[8:04:46] gave us uh and then see if we can figure out whether um the optimism we get from out whether um the optimism we get from the new Fed chair really does look the new Fed chair really does look warranted or uh whether there's a bigger

[8:05:01] issue here because the economic data continues to come hard and fast uh and we're going to get some more of it tomorrow. So here's the S&P 500. it continues to consolidate. We still don't have any clear path forward,

[8:05:17] it seems, on overall sentiment. The market's looking at the turmoil in uh the tech narrative and the AI narrative overseas. Of course, we've had dramatic

[8:05:30] weakness in some of the bellweather u names there uh in particular in South Korea. But the market can't be bothered. Um, it can't be bothered to commit this Um, it can't be bothered to commit this way or that. The S&P still drifting in

[8:05:44] this range that it's been locked in since miday. Volumes still diminishing and relative strength uh as a momentum uh indicator is basically just flat. So

[8:05:57] this market is looking for direction and it's unclear where that direction is it's unclear where that direction is going to come from. But we can see that at least for the meantime, it isn't coming from more war trade because today

[8:06:10] crude oil decided to stall. Now, of course, uh the surge in crude oil at the start of this week as the US and Iran started shooting at each other again and started shooting at each other again and we got a new blockade. We got uh the US

[8:06:23] president talking all kinds of different policy options. First, we we were going to put a toll on the straight, now we're not. Um now the street is open uh to uh traffic that isn't Iranian. Apparently we're only blockading that. Now um the

[8:06:39] we're only blockading that. Now um the story is um changing very quickly. Uh story is um changing very quickly. Uh and what we end up with is today a hold at former support turned resistance. We said that we were heading after the

[8:06:53] break here. Um and indeed as we started to kind of lay on these long positions uh last week, we said, "Okay, if we take out this level, the next threshold is here. We've arrived here now." Uh and we're going to have to see what happens

[8:07:09] we're going to have to see what happens next. But whatever it is, this was not seemingly the driver today. Where we did get some interesting situations was in the bond market where yesterday we had a kind of back and

[8:07:23] yesterday we had a kind of back and forth and yields pointedly would not forth and yields pointedly would not fall in earnest. Today they did. Yesterday the story was oh look a weak CPI number. Then of course Kevin Walsh

[8:07:37] came out and did his best hawkish performance. all kinds of things. He said yesterday in all kinds of ways he tried to express the idea that the Fed wants to deliver on the 2% inflation target and it will do its darnest to do

[8:07:54] it. Uh so markets came away with a hawkish sense. So all that rallying in the bonds that we saw that brought yields lower in the wake of CPI, it got unraveled. Well, today it got put back on the board. Uh, and we'll get into

[8:08:10] what the PPI, the wholesale inflation report and uh, what Mr. Walsh had to say on the second day of testimony had to do with all of this. But it does once again look like the bonds might be trying to carve out a bottom, which is an

[8:08:27] interesting thing because of course since the start of the war, the read through has been higher oil is more inflation is more inflation is a Fed that cannot cut and is likelier

[8:08:42] to hike. And by the way, that read through has extended to most global central banks. They all had a hawkish shift in expectations, barring perhaps the Bank of Japan at the start of this war. So the markets really had a big

[8:08:57] head change and in the process bonds of course melted down. Interest rates went aggressively higher across the board. And what we have here recently is

[8:09:09] starting to emerge as an interesting dynamic where the bonds are trying to bottom it seems since miday and yesterday we had a bit of a scare in

[8:09:21] that conversation but today we seem to be re-engaging with that idea where we've had much more consistencies in gold. We talked yesterday about the

[8:09:33] in gold. We talked yesterday about the idea that while the bonds and the dollar were looking stronger in the wake of this renewed oil shock that we had at the start of the week and maybe with the hawkish comments from uh Kevin Walsh, we

[8:09:48] would have a situation where the dollar had another leg higher and bonds had another leg lower. gold was not buying it and has been stuck in this consolidative range now uh basically since the middle of June looking to

[8:10:03] maybe carve out some sort of a floor at around the 4,000 level. Well, it looks like gold might have been somewhat of a precient indicator here because while the bonds looked like they wanted to break lower yesterday, gold pointedly

[8:10:19] break lower yesterday, gold pointedly held its range and continues to. And so we seem to be seeing something else starting to emerge here. And how all of starting to emerge here. And how all of this connects with war and wars and

[8:10:32] what's coming next is a very interesting puzzle to put together. The US dollar a piece of that puzzle to be sure. It has a nasty day today after uh showing all

[8:10:45] kinds of resilience yesterday after that uh weak CPI spook. It hasn't quite taken out former resistance turned uh support here at the top of this range that was

[8:10:57] with us since July of last year that we pointedly took out uh in um last month's pointedly took out uh in um last month's u uh price action. But we are looking

[8:11:09] much soggier and perhaps even starting to overturn the bounds of this rising trend that we've carved out since late April, early we've carved out since late April, early May. It's early to say yet. Uh these

[8:11:22] confidence in because they're very subjective as compared with horizontal ones. Uh and so it's unclear yet whether what we're looking at is a breakdown or uh the start of some sort of a consolidative

[8:11:38] period, but momentum seems to be shifting. Onto the data and where all of this came from. The PPI numbers give us a headline

[8:11:50] negative number. That's the first time uh basically uh in the better part of a year. The last time we had a negative uh PPI number uh on the month-on-month PPI number uh on the month-on-month reading was uh July of last year.

[8:12:05] reading was uh July of last year. And so we're looking here at a turn that And so we're looking here at a turn that seems to be almost wholesale seems to be almost wholesale a reflection of the decline in oil in

[8:12:18] a reflection of the decline in oil in May and June. Interestingly, the core number ticked higher. And so when we start to look at the breakdown, of course, these were much more benign numbers than expected and certainly the

[8:12:32] numbers than expected and certainly the market took them as such. Uh the market took them as such. Uh the numbers echoing what happened with CPI earlier in the week. Uh that was also softer than expected. But PPI here was

[8:12:48] expected to be flat. We got a decline of 0.3% on the month. core went up less than anticipated. 0.4% core went up less than anticipated. 0.4% was the forecast. 0.2%

[8:13:01] is what we got. The prior numbers were revised down for May. And when we look at the components, we can see shocking this is not there was a dramatic decline

[8:13:14] this is not there was a dramatic decline in energy 6.4% 4% on the month and that's of course after the very aggressive gains in the previous periods. Of course this data is going to be lagged to actual um markets and so

[8:13:28] when in May and June collectively you get a decline of more than 25% in crude oil prices a few months later come June this is the

[8:13:41] May number starting to present itself. you're going to see that and that was as widely expected in CPI where we saw much of the same thing as in PPI. Uh perhaps

[8:13:55] the more interesting thing is what didn't fall. Um we did not get a situation where categories meaningfully outside of this story saw a bunch of weakness although overall things were a little bit cooler all around. So uh for

[8:14:12] example in transportation and and warehousing a knock-on uh clearly from energy a little bit of uh weakness there as well after two big months but as well after two big months but otherwise things kind of steady margins

[8:14:27] expanded a little after a contraction in the previous month but on the whole the previous month but on the whole other than episodic things like food uh and the knock on there into overall goods

[8:14:42] goods prices u you generally don't have a story bigger than energy in these numbers and uh the situation in CPI as it came out yesterday a shock negative uh number the first one since 2020 uh

[8:14:59] very similar you can see uh this is a handy chart from Bloomberg's Michael Mcdana here uh you can see uh the energy component does can see uh the energy component does almost all the heavy lifting here and uh

[8:15:12] perhaps the more striking thing is when you look at the actual breakdown in CPPI you look at the actual breakdown in CPPI is that core services went down which is not the usual thing and uh we can see here this is u a very dramatic shift in

[8:15:31] course. Now, this is welcome news for one Kevin Worsh surely uh but he said some interesting things today uh in this testimony in particular he was pressed on the question of whether AI itself the

[8:15:48] buildout was inflationary which is of course uh a story we've been very focused on here on macro money and he kind of waved it off and said ah it's not the kind of inflation I'm concerned about it is driving inflation. But I

[8:16:03] think this is a one-time price increase because uh we have all this demand and supply will catch up and things will even out. Look at all these data centers that are going to get built. That's the supply that's going to relieve this

[8:16:16] supply that's going to relieve this situation. And okay, maybe. But in the meantime, it certainly seems to be driving inflation as the Fed chair uh acknowledges. And that's perhaps the larger story. But for now, it seems like

[8:16:32] larger story. But for now, it seems like there's relief and the sort of tone from the testimony suggesting, "Ah, well, maybe this oil thing will wash away. Maybe the AI thing will wash away. We're not in a hurry. We will restore price

[8:16:46] stability." All the fist pounding uh was there as yesterday. But maybe the Fed is there as yesterday. But maybe the Fed is a little bit less gung-ho about hiking

[8:16:58] with aggressive urgency here, which to some extent makes sense. What in the world is a rate hike going to do to stop inflation from

[8:17:10] rising oil prices, for example? you'd have to really raise rates stratospherically to kill demand for things like people's

[8:17:22] to kill demand for things like people's fuel to drive the car, say, fuel to drive the car, say, so we're probably not looking at the so we're probably not looking at the world's most effective tool there. Um,

[8:17:34] and it makes sense that the Fed is is going to uh wait to do those things uh going to uh wait to do those things uh and see how this washes out. The market certainly took notice. Uh if we look at the priced in probabilities now, we're

[8:17:47] the priced in probabilities now, we're down to 23 basis points or so priced in for this year. That's of course still favoring of at least one hike. But whereas before that was a near certainty, now we're starting to

[8:18:02] question whether the probabilities are as robust as they appeared. Certainly uh the inflation numbers being cooler on both uh fronts is helpful. The other

[8:18:16] interesting thing here though is the Fed's so far favored gauge is the BCE inflation measure and we'll see if that's survives what uh the task forces

[8:18:29] that Worsh has assembled uh will produce by the end of the year for the new by the end of the year for the new framework. But in the wake of CPI and PPM, which have the components that typically go into reconstructing a good

[8:18:43] model of PCE and where that's going, that told us that we are probably going to get disinflation thanks to energy, but core disinflation thanks to energy, but core inflation will continue to rise in the

[8:18:58] inflation will continue to rise in the July PCE numbers. Uh and that's an interesting read through from all of this. Um the expectation is that core this. Um the expectation is that core PCE which most recently in May uh was at

[8:19:13] 3.4% will rise by July to 3 uh6. So there's an interesting situation here then that gives us a sense that maybe it's not

[8:19:29] gives us a sense that maybe it's not quite so benign and in that sense quite so benign and in that sense wishful thinking about uh AI demand notwithstanding is what all of this has been doing to

[8:19:45] the consumer and in that sense the incoming retail sales report might be expectation is we're going to get a slowdown. That's probably to be expected. 0.2% uh down from 0.9%.

[8:20:00] We can see uh here that would be the weakest since January. U and because retail sales is uh not inflation adjusted as a data series, it's just adjusted as a data series, it's just volume times price as the result. The

[8:20:16] volume times price as the result. The decline in crude oil likely gives us some sort of a weakness in these numbers. But the important thing to keep numbers. But the important thing to keep in mind here is gasoline stations are

[8:20:31] where the consumer meets the price of oil. And of course there's been a oil. And of course there's been a dramatic pickup there, but the price of dramatic pickup there, but the price of gasoline is nowhere near the drop that

[8:20:43] we've seen in the price of oil. And that's largely because what oil has uh done with all of this volatility is uh it's created a shortage of distilled

[8:20:58] uh product. finished things like heating oil and gasoline and all and and everything uh like this even as crude now is relatively abundant with all now is relatively abundant with all these tankers leaving Hormuz uh before

[8:21:13] this most recent shootout and of course um as people uh pull down strategic reserves all across the the world. So there's lots of crude apparently

[8:21:26] and it's largely because refineries aren't refining it and so there is a shortage of the refined and we'll see if the consumers get any meaningful relief here.

[8:21:41] Much more interestingly than that would be what is going on with for example non-store retailers which is uh online sales uh general merchandise

[8:21:54] and um all these kind of core consumer sentiment ideas. If that is going to give us a situation where we see the consumer getting hamstrung by the

[8:22:06] inflation that we're looking at, it's going to tell us a very different story than what uh Mr. Wars would have us think because maybe eventually his narrative works out. But in the meantime, we can see that in the first

[8:22:19] quarter GDP numbers, the consumer was for the most part absent and most growth was produced by the AI investment boom. We can see here this is the final first quarter GDP number 2.1% is the growth

[8:22:35] and we can see which bar is the tallest bar here as far as contributions to this number. There's just no question it's being primarily driven by investment. Now a rebound in government spending certainly doesn't hurt. It was much

[8:22:50] weaker in the fourth quarter of last year because of the government shutdown. the balance between imports and exports looking not so negative because imports weakened uh a bit. That's not something

[8:23:08] to dismiss and in fact might speak to the weakness of the consumer because of the weakness of the consumer because of course who buys imports to a large extent consumers. They are 68%

[8:23:21] 68% of the economy. investment is only 14%. How did we get this small engine being the dominant one generating growth? Well, we had to move it really, really fast. As we've talked about, this is a

[8:23:35] very inflationary growth setup. You've got a piece of the economy that is only 14% of the total doing the heavy lifting. That means it has to grow in

[8:23:47] lifting. That means it has to grow in excess of 10% as we have seen annualized rate. Meanwhile, consumption is slowing. The inflation that's generated by spinning a smaller engine of demand that

[8:24:01] quickly is a problem for consumers understandably and indeed the Fed chair acknowledged it. So the problem here becomes if the consumer the problem here becomes if the consumer retrenches much further

[8:24:16] that sector is five times bigger than the the investment it will overwhelm the the the investment it will overwhelm the AI boom with relatively modest further and then we've got a recession on our hands or at least the threat of one and

[8:24:32] hands or at least the threat of one and we can see that movie is already playing in some major major global economies, Australia, the Euro zone, the UK, all examples where you have these buoyant manufacturing sectors that are catching

[8:24:47] the tailwind of the global AI buildout, but that's generating inflation that's squeezing consumers and the service sectors where consumers primarily shop, those are in contraction mode. These are

[8:25:02] um S&P global PMI numbers and of course 50 is neutral for these numbers. Above 50 is growth, below 50 is contraction. You can see here in Australia say you have a manufacturing sector that's accelerating from a 50.7 to 51.2 in

[8:25:16] June, but a service sector that's in contraction mode. So the overall economy is shrinking. It's the same story in the Euro area. It's the same story in the Euro area. It's the same story in the UK. Strong manufacturing, shrinking

[8:25:31] services, shrinking economy. That hasn't happened in the US or for that matter in Japan as yet because those economies have more exposure and more of a tailwind from this AI buildout. But the recipe for how

[8:25:46] this AI buildout. But the recipe for how this looks is already on display around major economies in the world. And so if we get a weak retail sales report here for the wrong reasons, if it's not just, oh good, gasoline got cheap and so

[8:26:03] that's why we have a retail sales number. If there are some real scars here telling us that what's going on with the consumer in the first quarter with the consumer in the first quarter is going to continue to get worse

[8:26:16] because the inflation being generated by investment is going to continue to build. Well, then we have an economy that has that has very basic cyclical threats gathering in

[8:26:30] front of it. And so that's going to be a very different kind of story for the dollar, for bonds, for gold. In fact, that might help explain, as we said yesterday, why gold has been so reluctant to sell off and why the bonds

[8:26:46] have ultimately decided to listen to this inflation data and to find the bit of war testimony that supported that idea and actually managed to hold up. So

[8:27:00] idea and actually managed to hold up. So from an exposure perspective, um try to squeeze in the positions here so uh we can see the details. Um I am now still

[8:27:13] long the Aussie. I've flipped my exposure in the pound to uh the long side. I'll be doing the same thing with the euro once we confirm uh just a little bit this breakout because it looks like the dollar is once again

[8:27:27] on softer footing. Um looking uh past the kind of longterm positions here in the kind of longterm positions here in EWZ, the Brazilian um ETF, the MSOS somebody mentioning cannabis legalization in the midterms at some

[8:27:44] point maybe. Um the core of the exposure remains the same. I'm still long silver, so I wasn't entirely absent from the metals rebound. Uh, and uh, earlier this

[8:27:57] week, I extended duration in uh, the short call verticals I have in the S&P and in the NASDAQ. The idea being that you are getting better than one:1 riskreward to be short calls here. So, you're receiving more premium than the

[8:28:11] max loss on the spread. So very attractive riskreward to have a little bit of downside bias as these markets consolidate while sitting and waiting. All they have to do is not snap higher

[8:28:28] to do is not snap higher in a crazy way and hopefully they snap lower and then the trade is going to work across different uh levels. Uh still long crude oil here. In fact, I added more. But whereas initially I did

[8:28:42] it uh in a low volume environment and was buying a call vertical, this time I was selling puts. And what that's done is it's reduced the overall call of the trade while increasing upside exposure. Um I flipped on the TLT position. So

[8:28:58] Um I flipped on the TLT position. So yesterday uh the bond market refused to yesterday uh the bond market refused to play along and so I had to uh flip over play along and so I had to uh flip over that exposure into a put vertical. Today

[8:29:10] it changed its mind again. Thankfully this is a very liquid sort of product with almost uh comically cheap vault and so very small loss and easy to flip back over. So, I am back in a call vertical in TLT

[8:29:26] looking for bonds to go higher as we start to talk about the cyclical threats it's still a cut that we might be looking at eventually and not a hike. If not this year, then maybe next. And that is macro money for today. As ever, we

[8:29:42] right after overtime, a show that I co-host with Chris Veio looking at the go there from. I'm also writing for the news and insights portion of tasty.com and commenting at Ilaspac on former Twitter and on Blue Sky. If you're

[8:29:58] subscribe. Macro Money will be back tomorrow. Happy trading.

[8:30:29] with Jamal Chandler. What's happening? >> It is a wacky Wednesday, July 15th. We got some stuff coming out right now, literally as we speak. We got the PPI

[8:30:41] report. Uh market just jumped a little bit. We had some earnings overnight. morning. We got some earnings after the close. Seems like it's going to be a uh >> Earnings infested day already. Rumors of a takeout at some point today. Um yeah,

[8:30:57] we got a lot of things to cover for sure. As a matter of fact, let's pull up today and the different people we're going to interact with here. Of course, you got the open uh here with us. You got the opening bell with Liz will come

[8:31:11] on. She'll come on and talk about things she saw overnight. And uh we'll probably Matter of fact, I already got one offer. I forgot to mention I have a super bear on. We have a guest, Mark Likenfeld, chief income strategist of the Oxford

[8:31:25] Club. Looking forward to talking to him. Actually talked to him once before uh back in April and we talked about Oracle and so far he was right about what he said. Errol will be at the CBOE. We'll talk about scalping. Of course, Errol's

[8:31:37] NASDAQ terms which will be great. We'll see the levels that he's looking at. We're going to uh eventually get to live trades with Chris and Liz at 10 a.m. and then risk and reward with Gus and Errol. So, just a sample of some of the things

[8:31:50] we're going to be going through today. >> Love it. And uh join us on the YouTube throw in your trade ideas, questions along the right hand side chat. We will show. >> There you go. Uh but yeah, first things

[8:32:03] >> There you go. Uh but yeah, first things first, ASML earnings uh came out just a little bit ago and uh we closed at 1775. We're trading at 1830 right now. >> Yeah, I mean it's pretty pretty inside move all things considered. This has

[8:32:19] been a really high implied volatility product and this is well within the implied move uh for the earnings announcement, but inside up I think is out there. And I think this this could be one of those things that is pushing

[8:32:33] this market higher uh at least in the the first few minutes of the futures started talking. >> Yeah, I mean this is a name where uh it standpoint that it's a semi name and and obviously I think anything happening

[8:32:47] with their earnings is going to probably drive a little bit of sentiment with that we're trading. I mean the markets in here are criminally wide. I mean like $10 wide in some strikes. So this wasn't about the trade. It was more about how

[8:33:02] we have on. And it seems as though at least for now it's positive for semis, positive for tech. Seems to be up. >> Love it. Uh we have I think we have Chris Beckio on the line. Do we not? >> We do. I think we do.

[8:33:17] >> I'm interested to hear what he has to say about the PPI report. Uh we do have >> Yeah, you'll hear >> information uh relative to the announcement or or the print I should say that just came out at 7:30 central.

[8:33:29] jumped up about 10 points. But yesterday, I think the bigger move uh is what we saw. If you look at the minute chart in the E- Minis, you can see uh this jump right here. This is the PPI report that just came out right at 7:30.

[8:33:44] >> I'm interested to get his take, see what bounced up on both of these numbers. I problem but clearly it's not that much of a problem. So uh when we talk about

[8:33:57] CPI yesterday and PPI today, you know, you've seen times where you both we move up on both. You've seen times where they're bifrocated. Uh it's it's hard to tell what the market is thinking here, but guess the number was okay.

[8:34:10] >> Yeah. Uh yesterday was interesting though. We had the initial pop and then we sold off immediately and then kind of chopped around and that was basically the story of yesterday. >> Uh as you can see there wasn't really

[8:34:22] too much movement and then overnight session today kind of drifted higher slightly slightly slightly. Uh >> trying to see we did get a million we did get a million in u ES contracts yesterday so that worked out well. Well,

[8:34:35] I know Frank was talking about volume and it was um uh fairly elevated kind of early, but I think that had to do some with CPI, right? So, uh we ended up, you on a summer day. Hey, I mean that that's all you can ask for.

[8:34:49] >> Yeah, for sure. SKH Highix uh took a tumble yesterday and uh it's going to be wild to see what happens with this product. initially uh opened at 170ish,

[8:35:03] dropped all the way down to the 150s, gapped up uh >> Yeah, gapped up big time. So, sorry, previous day we had a a drop on the we saw a big rally up to 190, but now we're sitting at 180. So, this is a the

[8:35:17] this is part for the course here. Uh it's almost the exact same chart as SpaceX, interestingly enough, gapping down here. Let's see. We'll see if we trudge around these levels, 160, 170. Uh, but we do have options here.

[8:35:31] expirations, I want to say. Now, we've got a lot more. Uh, so I imagine in the next couple days, they'll probably release weekly expirations as well. But

[8:35:43] again, part for the course. 100% implied volatility in all these cycles. You're going to see that uh for a lot of IPOs, most IPOs, just because you're seeing They're they're moving like they have binary events every single day.

[8:35:56] binary events every single day. >> Yeah. So far, um SK SKHYV not a good ticker. Stock was down. SKHY stock only goes up. So, [laughter] we'll see if that holds up today, but

[8:36:09] >> Yeah, exactly. Yeah, five. Five is no good. >> Cool. Uh we do have Chris Veio on the line. Uh I want to hear what you have to say, Mr. Chris, about the PPI report. Good morning.

[8:36:22] >> Morning. I'd say just drop the V. It's a lot cleaner for the stock ticker. >> Yeah. I'm looking forward to the sequel here. But yeah, you guys uh my eyes are on ASML this morning. Um yesterday with Liz, we were talking about uh finding

[8:36:37] sustainable uptrends but short-term pullbacks and so we initiated a long [clears throat] that looks like it's >> Yeah. So it looks like that's going to think there are knock-on consequences, right? their guidance was really strong.

[8:36:52] lithography machines that you need in order to make memory chips. So, when they're telling you that they're uh that the demand for their products is real, supply coming down the pipeline at some point in the future. So, we'll have to

[8:37:05] problem for the memory stocks in recent weeks. But for the companies like ASML or TSM, uh this is probably a decent shot. So, I'm looking forward to today. This morning, we have TSM earnings coming up on Thursday morning. Uh, I

[8:37:19] little entry right now. It's below its 1 month. It's above its 50. It's bouncing from its 50. And with the rest of the space, this is uh this is the first hopefully, unlike yesterday's JP Morgan trade, I can actually get filled.

[8:37:32] >> Well, yesterday we were trying to sell a thing ripped. >> Yeah. Completely ran. >> So, maybe we'll have better luck today. >> Yeah. JP Morgan. Oh, man. I had a call

[8:37:46] calendar and it dropped on the open and then I was like I forgot to close the shorts that were probably worthless and then we saw the intraday reversal and trading for like $800. I'm like, [laughter] "Oh, this is this could have

[8:37:59] >> I know, right? >> Uh still a good winner. I had uh two call calendar spreads that I closed for I think 160 bucks, something like that.

[8:38:11] Yeah, 160 bucks. 340 350. you know, if we're I know the way that we were the way that we should be approaching TSM today. Um, I'm looking at the 37 days to expiration, the 39,400 short put spread. $10 wide, you're collecting

[8:38:26] $3.67 in credit, so better than a third of the width of the strikes. Um, generating $245 in theta at a 63% probability of below the 50-day moving average, as has been the modus operande around here for

[8:38:41] this particular buy the dip strategy that I like to employ. Uh, it worked things. So, going back into the well this morning at the open. Hopefully, we get filled today. 39,400 short put spread.

[8:38:53] >> Um, as uh yeah, that's a good point. There's a bunch of earnings coming out uh tomorrow morning. Also, one that comes out tonight, UL and Chris, this bit with the data we just got this morning. U obviously uh moves a lot with

[8:39:08] oil. Oil is is coming back again. Oil >> seemingly didn't really factor into the case today with PPI? It seems like we're jumping on these inflation numbers and be that worried about it. >> No, the market's getting kind of what it

[8:39:24] would be what's happening with the 2-year yield right now. Two-year yields are lower in part because the SR3 Z6 contract is moving up, right? The quick axis, you subtract that from 100. That's how you get the implied Fed funds rate

[8:39:38] particular expiration cycle. So PPI today prices fell 0.3% month overmonth versus an estimated reading of flat. They were uh uh core reading was up 0.2 They were uh uh core reading was up 0.2 versus 0.4. The the core headline 4.7

[8:39:53] versus 5.2 anticipated. So um you know we think about what CPI said yesterday. PPI comes out today and more or less confirms a little bit of the CPI relief. come in and there was still a bunch of inflation burbling through the pipeline.

[8:40:06] pipeline is slowing down itself, which means there's a reduced odds of that inflation reaching the end consumer here. So, this is great news for I think albatross are in the markets neck has always been higher yields and if the Fed

[8:40:22] July or September, then this train keeps going guys, right? Uh >> so why Why why are we going to get too worked up then? Um it's July after all and markets been off to a slow start in

[8:40:36] of the year. The best month of the year in fact. Maybe there's still time to point. >> Yeah. Uh after the CPI yesterday, we saw the looking at the CME Fed Watch tool, we saw the probabilities get cut in

[8:40:50] half. Uh market was expecting a 30% chance of 25 basis point hike and then chance of 25 basis point hike and then 16 15. Uh this is light to dark going from a month back to current. So yeah, going to be interesting to see what

[8:41:03] happens here. This is July and then if you go to September, similar story. Uh things are just flipping around here, but two days in a row of pretty similar but two days in a row of pretty similar readings for July and September. Um but

[8:41:15] >> and you notice that twist in the bond curve, right? I mean, if ZT that's up today, ZN and ZB, they're basically flat. They're not even really trading continued steepening of the yield curve right now. So I I always go back to

[8:41:28] September 24 as like an anchor point for the environment. The Fed cuts 50 basis They blow out. So in that same token, if the market was thinking that we needed a hike and all of a sudden hikes aren't coming, then inflation expectations can

[8:41:42] still. So two years stays down, 10 years, 30 years, they go up. You get a little bit more of an acid inflationary environment. This is not our first rodeo, gentlemen. This is not our first rodeo for sure. Yeah, this there's

[8:41:55] something happening for sure underneath the surface here. Uh but I'm just um I'm curious at some point if the market changes its its tune. Um in the trading the way I've been trading. Things have been working out.

[8:42:09] >> Uh can I throw you guys one more trade idea this morning because it's related Healthcare coming up and that was a really big >> it felt like that was a big favorite for parts of last year after the all of the

[8:42:21] uh the murder of one of its executives to just bad business decisions. Um but the stock's been on an absolute tear, right? It's trading at 416 pre-market right now. It again fits that criteria that I have below the one month above

[8:42:36] pretty strong uptrend in recent weeks. So with the earnings tomorrow, I think I'm going to dip my toe in here as well. 396 is your 50-day moving average right now. So sitting out at 37 days, I'm looking at 380 370. Uh the problem is

[8:42:49] one standard deviation move, it's just not paying enough. So I'm hoping the market could come in a little bit more this morning. I'm going to be patient on this. Uh because right now it's a $142 in credit for $10 worth uh wide strikes.

[8:43:01] if this thing can tighten up, we can get another like5 or $10 drop. I can start Things that fit my buy the dip criteria. And if we have a catalyst coming around the better.

[8:43:16] here actually. Um, looks pretty good to me when I look at the 2-day versus 9day. Look at the 450 strike. I can get that for a buck 43, which likely means if you're interested in a diagonal, diagonals might line up nice, too.

[8:43:31] nice, the diagonals line up nice, too, you know. So, >> yeah. This is actually This one's cheaper uh than what we were just cheaper uh than what we were just looking at with uh TSM

[8:43:45] >> I would think >> just looking at like the same exact move, selling that at the 440 and then buying the 9-day 440. Uh you're getting

[8:43:57] half of the cost basis reduction if you're you're collecting four bucks, paying eight bucks uh for the 2-day 9-day split. But when you look at UNH, you are collecting way more. You're collecting four bucks against six bucks.

[8:44:10] So the ratio is significantly higher. And when you have those setups, your break evens are way wider because you're paying way less uh dollar for dollar or at least you're collecting more dollar for dollar and reducing basis

[8:44:23] aggressively. Like this is a huge cost basis reduction. And all you need to happen here for this trade is uh for this thing to be trading for two bucks. this option in the nine-day cycle. And you can see there's plenty of situations

[8:44:36] >> And that's a great call out because yeah, look at the uh the IVX for the both of them. I mean, between two-day and 9-day for UNH, it's it's like 30 points whereas it's like 10 points for TSM because V just stays been there

[8:44:50] if it's earnings or not. Every day is earnings in TSM and all these other names. [laughter] >> Yeah. Right. Oh, what happened >> Right. Yeah. >> Okay. I see. Sure. Just another day.

[8:45:04] summer days. What? Summer? What's summer? This ain't summer trading. This day. >> It's It's all viable. a lot. >> It has joking before the market. I I

[8:45:18] fixed yesterday and we come in here and it's like 100 degrees in the studio. I'm [laughter] >> I know, right? This house. The studio. Don't Don't let him put that mojo on me, Chris. I don't need that in my house.

[8:45:30] rid myself of [laughter] all the Black Swan events. Maybe that you have walking through the hallways just saying no black swan go away. Go away. [laughter] >> Unbelievable. Love it.

[8:45:45] >> Uh yeah, you mean are creeping higher here. Up 18. Nasdaq's up 150. Everything seems to be green. Um are you are you trading these crude oil markets? I mean, the backwardation continues to creep in here. Now, we're getting a lift in the

[8:46:01] back here. These were sub 70 yesterday. Now, they're above 70 and the 1 day, 30-day, 64-day continue to climb higher over. the overnight. Um, you know, because I feel like with crude, you can really

[8:46:13] it seems like it was kind of quiet overnight, right? >> Pinned. Pinned overnight. Stuck near 79. No, I I mean yesterday I took off most spreads that had been deep underwater

[8:46:26] bit of a mental break yesterday instead of putting something right back on. Um I take two weeks off from trading crude because of how I was feeling emotionally >> it's about to go higher especially since you took those positions off. [laughter]

[8:46:40] >> Yeah. No, but I'm still operating out in the the U6, the V6, and the Z6 cycles that we're getting this weird thing where you get the backwardation creeps of resets that back into the curve is finding just a little bit of a higher

[8:46:53] price floor out there. Um, I'm of the I'm of the view that we're kind of stuck in a quagmire right now with Iran. And so, uh, this tit for tat is probably back down, nor will we, at least through the midterms. So, dips on oil selling

[8:47:06] pre-war levels as the Florida workaround. It was painful for a few weeks. I was President. But now it's time to find the next trade.

[8:47:19] why um, somebody asked in the chat, go back over why you don't love the, uh, trade right now. And what is it? UNH, I think it was you were saying. heristics that we have around here is that when you're uh looking to do

[8:47:32] short call spread, you're usually looking to collect about a third of the credit. And so, when you're looking at a $10 wide put spread and you're only collecting a $142, it feels a little light, which is why TSM is so much more

[8:47:44] appealing because you're getting 367 or so there or 370 there. Um, and that's think the risk-to-reward is a little bit juicier, a little bit more tolerable for what we're trying to accomplish. >> Nice. Nice. Your boy Williams is on the

[8:47:58] uh tape right now. It sounds like uh shelter inflation should remain on downward path. Expect overall inflation to fall to 3 and a/4% by year end. target? >> Yeah. [clears throat and laughter]

[8:48:14] >> Um yeah, I think >> mission accomplished agree with you and it was it was interesting to see because when we got that initial news headline that things were heating up again, it was an

[8:48:29] interesting scenario because all there was like four of these contracts and to see this I just click uh from all expirations to regular expirations and can just X out the regular expirations here to to reverse it. But this is how

[8:48:43] how we look at the curve. Really easy to do. But when they made that initial announcement, we saw 74 in the 1 day, 74 in the 33 day, 74 in the 64 day, 74 in the 92day. And that was exactly the sentiment that you just said where we're

[8:48:58] expecting this to be happening for a lot longer. The first time it was really cycles, maybe the first and second contract, but the fact that all four of these or all five of these had the same reading and then the back months were

[8:49:11] still in the 70s kind of is just telling just by those numbers and the sequence to be a thing that's probably going to last for a lot longer than we think. fact that time has really marched on here, right? When we were talking about

[8:49:24] you look 6 months out to September, you know, this thing could really be Now we're talking about another six months out is 2027. >> So now that's no longer no longer a quick little special operation. That was

[8:49:38] the Russian term for invading Ukraine. I you know all see >> See it's hard to keep up. That's why I stopped doing it man. That's why just [laughter] >> No, I think the important point there is

[8:49:50] like Russia Ukraine is still going on. Do we care about it? >> not really. The market does not react to it at all. So once we can once the going for the oil and all the uh petrochemicals, fertilizer etc from the

[8:50:05] region and they can reroute that supply elsewhere, the war can just grind on and from the straight going to be gravy everything else. This is just the new >> Yeah. >> Higher floor under oil

[8:50:18] >> Higher floor under oil >> craziness. Um we put on some SPX Super morning. I'm going to take it off so that Jamal can get his Super Bear. right markets will sell off. >> So, uh, trying to route this for $150

[8:50:33] credit. >> Um, and the name of the game for these trades is just selling a put spread to buy a call spread and completely offset the credit is as long as it's a credit. Uh, and you're really just replacing

[8:50:46] your put spread credit to get value out of your call spread credit. So maybe going back to UNH where Chris you said you didn't like the riskreward there. Maybe uh you you replace it with you know a 10point wide put spread to buy a

[8:50:59] five point wide call spread. Now all of a sudden if you get the rally your P&L the same of course but um >> I got I got to make my shopping list for >> I got I got to make my shopping list for today. So I got UNH I got uh Fiserve for

[8:51:13] reasons I will explain once Gus gets on. Um what else have we talked about here? Uh, UAL maybe. I don't know if I'm doing UL. Anything else you guys got? >> yeah, I mean I have Johnson and Johnson on my list too, uh, just because it it

[8:51:26] criteria here. Y, >> um, it's a little bit below that, uh, were in place throughout February, March, running in around like 245 to 250. So, we're kind of at that spot

[8:51:40] right now. Um, 78 IVR, the raw volatility is not super high in the 26 27 area if you go out over the next few weeks. Nevertheless, got to take So, I'm trying to be, you know, I'm being a little mechanical here. If it

[8:51:53] being a little mechanical here. If it fits the criteria, then we just execute. people should understand like at this point, we've been growing our books a certain things that fit. Some things fit better than others. I've actually been

[8:52:06] selling a put in here. This fits my uh consumer staples long situation I got up selling a put in here as well. you know, I think that's where too. It's like, okay, where have my positions? ASML, WDC, SMH, NASDAQ, uh,

[8:52:23] >> All right, this is all very like high beta growth centric. >> So, what can I do to reduce like the beta weighted deltas in my portfolio? I these things or I could get long a bunch of uncorrelated stocks,

[8:52:35] >> right? Um, so looking at J&J, looking at UNH, looking at um, you know, TSM [laughter] those two names right now at least, healthcare has been strong. long deltas in in tech, too. And I tell you what, on the days where the semis

[8:52:49] still doing well in the book because I decided to put on a lot of those consumer staple stuff. Um, and the rotation is working. I I know for a fact there's going to be a day because I keep seeing it with all this different um,

[8:53:03] probably as good time as many as any. Let's pull up one of these charts, the Let's pull up one of these charts, the one with uh the DPSX uh dispersion chart on it. Um I uh I I I know there's going to be one of these days where all of it

[8:53:17] a rotation. There's going to be a day where tech is down and semies are down and then also the consumer staples are also down. And that's going to be the day where we're probably down over 100 and change and VIX actually moves up a

[8:53:30] why I say that is because this is our current situation. This is from our friends at the SIBO. And um you know, when you look at dispersion, it's at a six-year high right now, meaning correlation is is not correlation is

[8:53:42] low. And look where VIX is. Usually VIX is a little bit higher when dispersion is high. As you can see, last time it was this high was around the time of uh the liberation day. So this is kind of an interesting chart. If you are a bear,

[8:53:55] the market is going to fall at some point in time. This is kind of your guide. At some point, maybe it does. I don't know how it does it during the middle of earnings. Somebody has to be the bearer of bad news. I would think,

[8:54:07] whoever that may be, but just something to keep an eye on. This is why, you know, it's nice to be in the euphoria of the market, but you got to pay attention it. >> Yeah, absolutely. And I think uh I think

[8:54:22] bearers of bad news or at least they'll print a number and the market will just disregard it, scoff at it. >> Uh because a lot of these tech stocks, I mean all of these tech stocks have astronomical expectations and that can

[8:54:36] sometimes be a recipe for disaster. If there's any kind of slowdown in guidance or if they if they just meet the number, that's the crazy thing. If they meet the could be a a catalyst for a market selloff.

[8:54:50] >> Well, we're two weeks out from July 29th, which is when Meta, Microsoft, all those guys. So, you know, get you got two weeks to get your affairs in order. Two weeks. >> Just two weeks.

[8:55:02] >> Um, yeah. Ein still chopping around here. Up 22, NASDAQ up 200. Uh, the Dow and the Russell. What do you make of the the Dow? The last couple of days the Dow has been moving at a complete uh negative one correlation to the E- Minis

[8:55:17] and NASDAQ. We've seen a handful of times where E- mini NASDAQ up, Dow down, Ein Nasdaq down, Dow up. Do you read into that at all? news yesterday from one of uh the bigger

[8:55:32] Dow components? Am I [snorts] mistaking things? mistaking things? >> Uh what was it related to? IBM >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. IBM. Yeah. They um basically came out and said

[8:55:45] >> Yeah. Their their customers are basically wanting more um more AI that. >> Yeah. So, I mean it was down 26%

[8:55:57] >> Yeah. I guess >> somebody drew a line here. contributing factor for maybe why the Dow's been underperformed recently. >> just a cool, >> but I mean look look at the look at the

[8:56:11] names here. I mean Goldman Sachs, Caterpillar, UNH, Microsoft, Google, among them, you're talking about like 35% of the Dow. So, Microsoft's been in opportunities in UNH. Caterpillar actually comes up on my scan today, too.

[8:56:25] highs yesterday. So, I mean, look, there are some idiosyncratic things right now that are weighing down uh the index, but I don't know if you want to because of how the Dow's constructed. It's It's a special index.

[8:56:41] >> I was like, "It's a special." >> There it is. >> Um, yeah, we've got IBM up three points, uh, three and a half points, and I

[8:56:53] spread. But I like the way that this sets up. Long post earnings, short pre-earnings with the intention to roll from the 2-day to the 9-day. Uh, and I can tell you right now this option initially that I sold for.7

[8:57:09] cents, trading for 30 cents now. But once I roll this from the 2-day to the 9 day, you can see here the 250 is still trading for $2 and change. So, it's going to be some kind of two $3 roll. Uh, especially if we keep rallying from

[8:57:21] here, it'll just increase that roll credit. But I plan to do that uh either premium in there. >> And I just straight up sold a put in >> Yeah. There you have it. >> I did.

[8:57:34] >> Um, yeah. And you know, I just mentioned that Caterpillar there as well. Just morning. Uh, $8.99 short put spread. I have that order in to go as well here. trades that we've talked about this morning. It fits the criteria. $3.58 of

[8:57:49] credit generated. Uh, $10 wide strike. So over a third of the width of the strike, 59% probability of profit. Where does it sit? Just below the 50-day. It's you got this I I really like this dynamic. Right now, the market has had a

[8:58:02] start to July. All the bears are like, "Ah, bulls are giving up because the the halfway point. It's the eyides of July, as it were." And so, now we can And yes, I am absolutely talking my

[8:58:16] birthday this week. And so, let's go. What day? >> Uh, all day on Saturday. >> Nice. Nice. >> Happy early birthday.

[8:58:28] >> Yeah. Yeah. Thank you. >> Maybe Caterpillar can provide you a >> We'll give you a present by way of UNH rally and uh rally and uh >> just like cat unh feel cat feels right.

[8:58:41] >> I knew I knew I knew portfolio's got >> cat. I I saw his I just saw it like happen like I saw it happen. I was like you [laughter] >> Um I was filled on that Super Bowl. Got

[8:58:55] filled uh just now. So, I sold it for 10 cents, routed it for 10 cents, got out of it for a $140. So, it's $150 winner in and out in 15 minutes uh into this rally for uh PPI. That was really the reason why I put it on because CPI, we

[8:59:11] saw a little bump in the market. PPI, we saw the same thing. Um and I just want to secure that before it goes away. We can revisit uh maybe some zero day stuff later today, but >> bank $150 for the day already. That's a

[8:59:25] >> It's nice. quite nice. Uh but yeah, we're going to take a quick 90 second Throw in your trade ideas and questions along the righth hand side chat. We already just showed one, but uh yeah, you're watching Tasty Live. We'll see

[8:59:38] you're watching Tasty Live. We'll see you in 90 seconds.

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[9:03:07] got the E- Minis up 20, the Nasdaq up almost 200 and it seems to be a nice green day after the PPI report. We had ASML earnings after uh a little bit of a up a little bit today. We've got some other sympathy moves in TSM. We've got a

[9:03:23] handful of other products reporting earnings today, but I am joined by Jamal Gus, how you doing? >> Doing good. Always good. I I was I was gonna turn it on for for this show here. I've had 12 12 fluid ounces of cold brew

[9:03:39] already. It flowth freely. More shall enter my body very shortly. So, we're we're doing [laughter] good. >> Yeah, it's been uh it's been a crazy morning and uh that's why we've got cold brew and tap here at Tasty.

[9:03:51] >> One one of the one of the best perks of of any job anywhere perhaps. This this bonus really when you think about it. >> I mean, you know, it depends on who you is like on hard knocks that someone will go up and they'll be like 20k and

[9:04:05] Williams [clears throat] is like three 3.5 million. [laughter] That's how I see >> my name is Yeah. My name is Caleb Williams. $10 million signed above.

[9:04:18] interesting stories today. Gonna going to stay away from uh talking earnings covered some things moving yesterday and we got lots of fun non-earning stories to touch on. First one, not going to spend a lot of time here, but oil rising

[9:04:32] again. We have resumed strikes on Iran. Uh Trump has said that they will continue to intensify. If if these peace talks don't go well into the next week, so you want peace, here's some bombs. I don't know, perhaps a good negotiating

[9:04:44] strategy, but it is continuing to drive oil upward. So, keep keep your eyes on oil. Uh it's I I'm too scared to touch it myself, but if for anybody with the cojones to do so, I respect it. Uh beyond that, Alibaba is moving this

[9:04:57] morning. First real topic for today. Uh their shares are opening set to open up about 4% after Apple announced that they are partnering with Alibaba to integrate Alibaba's. Now this is a tough word. It is QN AI is the spelling here. I have

[9:05:13] seen lots of American media outlets pronounce this Quen. So I believe that to be acceptable, but I I a man of culture know that Q's are pronounced like a ch in Chinese. So formally chuen is how you're supposed to say this.

[9:05:27] Anyway, twin AI uh they are they are integrating it into Apple intelligence in China. So that's all iOS everything iPad, Mac, uh any any Apple operating system is going to have Alibaba's twin AI integrated into it uh for Apple

[9:05:41] intelligence applications in China. And Alibaba won this uh in a bidding war isn't the right word, but a business war with DeepSeek to get this partnership >> Schwin, is that like Schwin? >> Oh yeah.

[9:05:53] actually in the YouTube chat back in the day, this is obviously a core memory day, this is obviously a core memory now, I guess. But uh pendodo, we used to call it pindoo. They're like, "No, no, no. It's pendodo, like door without the

[9:06:05] didn't even realize it. >> Now you know. >> Now you know. >> I thought that was dowo. Honestly, I of ways. Man of culture, huh? >> Exactly. Exactly. No, it's because of my

[9:06:19] uh here's a here's a random NBA player for the morning. Uh, Rockets legend Joe aware. All right, that's that's how I know about the Q being CH thing. Um, next next thing I have on the docket for today, Warren Buffett uh continues to be

[9:06:34] involved with uh Bergkshire Hathaway. It it would seem uh that he said in an interview this morning that he initiated Berkshire Hathaway's investment into Apple in Q3 of last year or sorry, Alphabet, not Apple, Google/Alphabet.

[9:06:49] uh weren't Bergkshire Hathway put $4.3 billion dollars into Alphabet in Q3 of and said that it was him and not the new CEO Greg Ael who initiated that investment. So he is even though he you know on paper is a little more hands-off

[9:07:04] very hands-on. Could this move Bergkshire shares into today? I don't know. But certainly would restore a little bit of confidence him saying he's still doing some of the shot calling. >> Reminds me of Tom Brady. Thought he was

[9:07:17] gone. He's like, "No, I got one more year in me." >> Yeah. I just Yeah. I imagine him I don't know playing playing golf bored and he's Google's good right now." So, yeah. I [laughter] don't know. But yeah, that's

[9:07:31] Hathaway took on Alphabet. Uh as well as their investment into uh Google's $10 billion funding round for AI. Both of those spurred by by Warren Buffett himself, not the new CEO. So, he's still around. Well, he gets he gets per he

[9:07:45] gets um in these stocks at really good levels all the time. So, >> be interesting to see. I mean, yeah, Google I know Google rallied when when that happening uh towards the end of the end of last year.

[9:07:59] if this has any bearing on on Bergkshire. Obviously, confidence has has waned a little bit from that stock since Warren Buffett's departure. Uh and so if he's saying, you know, it's it's still me, uh that that could that could

[9:08:12] certainly change things for them. >> Uh last big one, PayPal back in the reason. They've been in the headlines as of late. Another buyout offer. Payments firm Stripe uh and private equity company Adventurer to buy PayPal for $53

[9:08:27] billion, which would price PayPal at $60.50 per share. That offer was submitted earlier this month. PayPal has yet to formally respond. Uh obviously as with every publicly traded company, PayPal has a fiduciary duty to issue a

[9:08:40] going to be receptive or not remains to be seen, but two uh two buyout offers for for PayPal already in in 2026. It's a it's a hot commodity. >> Yeah. And this is a significant move.

[9:08:53] >> PayPal up over almost 10 bucks, which brings us above the gap down that we saw uh in February. So yeah, strong move here. And just just so you guys are aware, I don't know, we haven't really talked about or experienced a a buyout

[9:09:08] uh recently, but another interesting thing, so we we look at like crude oil backwardation. You can look at the probability of a buyout regardless of what the sentiment is in the news headlines because if you see a gap up

[9:09:21] like this, let's say 56, and then you go to these options expirations and you go 10-centent bid on either side, then you go to January of 2028 and you see 10-centent bid, 10-centent bid, that

[9:09:34] implies that the market has concluded this is a done deal. So, like as this goes along, if if it does go along, let's say the buyout's at again $56 a share to get your confirmation, you would go to these options expirations,

[9:09:47] across the board. >> Yep. No, it's a good point. And to that >> Yep. No, it's a good point. And to that end, um you're seeing now uh companies come after payment situations like like this. I it makes me a little bit

[9:10:01] interested. I'm looking at comparable and fiserve sv. I might look at that and see if somebody eventually is going to buy that. The way you play a buyout, like you said, look at uh maybe cheap upside. Um I don't

[9:10:13] know what anybody would pay for this thing and it would be a duration play. I out. Maybe even I don't know, September to Jan. Uh we'll see. But I might end up if maybe this gets a nice little buyout. Who knows? Maybe they'd want to buy this

[9:10:27] out for 60 something bucks. That'd be nice. This thing's only 27 billion, by the way. This that buyout is 60 billion for PayPal. again if it goes through this market cap on this name is is 27 billion. That's fairly cheap considering

[9:10:39] big gap that you're seeing on the chart here in November of last year when it was at about 30 billion. So, >> I was too. I I got [laughter] out of it. have those leaps open at close to worthless right now. Um I'm not entirely

[9:10:54] sure. Maybe I took this one off. Uh but yeah, I have have tested the waters on astute observation if if people are are going after the payment processors. come up uh and and for cheaper than PayPal at that.

[9:11:07] >> And you're seeing a little bit of a bid, a little bit of sympathy bid here. Uh they closed at 49 half yesterday. They're at 51 half right now. >> Yeah, I might buy some some jam 2027 calls.

[9:11:19] >> Um something just coming across my desk here. Uh United Airlines is migrating. They're gonna start offering the ability to keep the middle seat open on long haul flights [laughter] on their new on their new Airbus. It's like a It's like

[9:11:34] be a whole section where there's no table in the middle seat for customers to share and you pay a little bit more and there's nobody in the middle. So, there's something for you. Breaking

[9:11:46] news. I don't know. [laughter] >> Cut cut out the middle man with United hurt things, but I mean, >> can you tell this guy's in marketing or what? [laughter] >> Yeah, I think I think all the all the

[9:11:58] trying to, you know, kind of try to increase comfort, get people to spend a little bit more alle cart. Uh I I like it. Like I know a lot of them are are to to lounges instead and offering that as a as an alle cart service that you

[9:12:12] can pay for. Like you can I know a lot are now doing uh you can buy first class and it's a little bit cheaper. I like it. feel like it gives the consumer more mobility. I don't know. Competition's good. Uh, keep competing airlines. Thank

[9:12:25] in coach, you had basically seats that looked like uh first class seats and it was just two on each side. >> Now it's like they just cram as many >> Yeah. No, I have the United Club card and it's it's been the most valuable

[9:12:39] card by far >> in terms of the perks you get. Yeah. United Club access. You can uh take economy seats, bring them to Premium Economy for free. So yeah, lots of competition and that that'll be good for

[9:12:51] Competition across brands, but thank you Gus. Appreciate your time. We'll see you a little bit later today. Uh E- Mini selling off a little bit here. Up 17, high. But we're going to take a quick 90 second break. Bring in Liz for the

[9:13:05] opening bell. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[9:14:43] Minis and NASDAQ selling off just a tad, but they're still green on the day. E-in but they're still green on the day. E-in up 15, NASDAQ up 150. We've got about 15 minutes exactly until the equity open. We got Liz on the line. And Liz, uh,

[9:14:56] we've already put on some global trading hours, SPX trades. I took one off for $150 winner. Now we need the market to tank for Jeral's. Oh, Jamal bearish in his. >> Yeah, it's uh you know, don't read into

[9:15:09] it too much. It's against the book. [laughter] Against the book. Trust me, to sit and wait. >> Trust me, we make [laughter] money if How you doing? >> I get it. Good. How are you guys? I was

[9:15:23] the only earnings of note today is you all, right? >> Tonight. Yeah. Yeah. for tonight um at the at the close and then it's more again. >> What do you got tomorrow morning?

[9:15:36] >> Uh tomorrow morning we got uh wait no that's Thursday. Uh tomorrow morning we got UNH, TSM, GE, uh Abbott for those who who care, US Bank, State Street. Um but I would say

[9:15:50] UNH and TSM are probably the ones I'm looking at the most. GE, I'd like to looking at the most. GE, I'd like to sell V after. GV was a kind of a play month ago, but it just wasn't working. The stock kept moving way too much.

[9:16:03] the ball's a little elevated in here in the 40s, so I don't mind selling V after Netflix, too. >> Jamal, you referenced this before, but smart reference, Tracy. Yes. >> Can you [laughter]

[9:16:17] >> can you Mike show how you got to this list for people that are just joining other day in a meeting. We have the earnings on here as well and I could easily go and look, but I like to ask you guys. It's easier. [laughter]

[9:16:30] >> Yeah. So, you just go to the watch list tab right here. Uh this vertical bar in watch list on the left is where you can get a ton of information for a lot of >> Yeah, go to the watch list and then we

[9:16:44] have a ton of uh preset watch lists, but this one specifically is under the earnings. Uh I like to look at all earnings. You can look at tasty earnings as well. Kind of more of a a handpicked list, but all earnings and then just

[9:16:57] change the time frame uh sorting here. Earnings at up arrow is going to give you the most recent earnings. And then if you see the arrow before to the left of the bell, that means before the market opens. To the right of the bell

[9:17:10] means after the market closes. Um so yeah, we've got a ton of different stuff here. I like to look at like market indices in the morning uh on the open, see what's moving in the NASDAQ 100, S&P 100. But for trade ideas, you can also

[9:17:24] look at uh where is the Oh, it's under tasty. Yeah, 52- week near high, 52- week near low. So, if you're looking for, let's say you're you're bullish on the the overall S&Ps,

[9:17:38] you can look at the Tasty watch list, 52- week near low. If you're looking at for bullish opportunities, that'll pull products that are within 5% of their 52- week low. And then for the high, 52- week near high, the same story, within

[9:17:52] 5% of their 52- week high. And then you can look at all these other ones, too. >> there's a lot of stuff in those watch lists, which is pretty. And then you can that when I'm looking for something to do. I'll sort by low or high and then

[9:18:06] here? >> Yep. Um, and we were talking about correlation and dispersion, too. If you have core spy, that'll pull the correlation that you see uh in the overview tab as well when you're looking

[9:18:19] at stuff. So, if you're looking at bullish bearish uh things to get on, you can see the the three-month correlation to spy right here. Perfect. No, I like it. And the kids these days have everything. Um, so

[9:18:32] out of spy. Do you know what I find fascinating? I'm just going to give this is kind of what I'm looking at overnight now that we can. So if you go can you go to SPX for me Mike and go to the zero day the number one leader on the board.

[9:18:45] it could change. The number one leader on the board in the calls is 7600 today. So the open interest is 6,000 but already 57 5700 have traded in in

[9:19:01] >> What about to the downside? to the downside the put leader um 75 7550 >> so like right at the monies and what I find fascinating and I'm doing my own

[9:19:13] pre-market and then I'm also looking at the end of the day and I said this when gravitational pull to these to the big numbers where lots of volume is trading so we watch I watched it yesterday the calls yesterday it was 7550 was the

[9:19:28] number one on the board and it it it closed what 755047 or something like that So, it's been an interesting watch for me in the morning to see. And they're in early. Like it's 4:00 and 7600 was the leader on the board.

[9:19:42] >> 5:00. I can't say [clears throat] four o'clock. I wasn't up that early. >> Yeah, we're definitely seeing uh a pull higher like even just the general open interest on the downside. Uh outside of the 7550 like you mentioned, you got 1K

[9:19:56] 800 like there's not much volume here or open interest and then you look at the upside and it's multiples. uh across the board, especially as you go further out. >> And I know it's been lighter volume, but even yesterday, the the 7550 calls at

[9:20:10] [clears throat] options that were traded, which is didn't have any. They had, you know, about a thousand. If we were going to do that same thing today, if you go to the 7,600, just just kind of saying that

[9:20:22] 6,000 have traded right now, but by the end of the day, it was like 191,000 had traded. It was insane. So the these are for options that have no you no real open interest 6,000 which is nothing than to have almost you know 190,000 at

[9:20:36] numbers that are flying around. >> Massive for sure. >> And it's been a it's been a rise in the zero day uh for sure the near-term S&P options. I mean it's it's been astronomical growth and I think it's all

[9:20:49] just a precursor to everything being instant and and readily available. I mean that that is the that's what we wanted to see from an accessibility standpoint, but also like pattern day trading rule going away with day trade

[9:21:03] power. Now you've got the rise in zero day options. Now you've got global trading hours for indices. Soon you'll have global trading hours for equities. It's just the it's the future of what the what we're expecting here.

[9:21:16] everything these days. >> They have everything these days, Jamal. And I was laughing when you were talking about you remember coach with two seats you're aging yourself there." [laughter] >> Yeah, I I I remember it. I remember it.

[9:21:29] What I remember is seeing a picture of me and my brother on a plane as a kid as I start to talk about my trauma growing up. U my my parents got divorced when we were little and so we used to fly back and forth between our parents and um I

[9:21:42] pictures like we were sitting on a plane this year. I was like, "Wait a minute, other?" Like that doesn't exist anymore at all. That's not a thing. the UIL feature. >> Well, that's what they're that's what

[9:21:55] they're getting to the point where look, but some of us, we don't mind paying for what they're they're relying on. And so, I you could easily see them changing point. >> Now, that being said, I'm bullish United

[9:22:09] because I, as Mike, am a United girly, and I love the United club. I love the United lounge. I love free prosecco. It's not free, but you know what? >> Yeah. >> So, what are we doing in United then?

[9:22:22] >> So, in full disclosure, it's funny because we were, you said this is the airlines, I have a tendency to pick a not airlines in sectors. I have a stocks, it'll always be JD even though there's no correlation to Baba. But in

[9:22:37] only because I'm a fan of the the product. So, I'll probably do a bullish diagonal here. Like, you know, I'll lie you guys how you how you guys have done the two-day and maybe buy the 9-day or the 16-day, sell the at the expected

[9:22:51] move and buy the buy the by the at the buy the at the monies and the farther >> I just I love how emotional she is about her trading. You know what I mean? Like it. >> Come on. You got to have a good story.

[9:23:05] >> That's true. That's that's what I've heard. >> Yeah. I I totally like it. And I think uh if you just do like the comparison of these two options, August I think is viable. September you're paying a little

[9:23:18] bit more, but you have a little bit less implied volatility contraction here. Uh and you've got twice the amount of time. So just depends on the setup. But yeah, long August like the 120 is right at the money. And then in the two-day you could

[9:23:30] sell the 127, 128, 129. Like all these are are pretty liquid. Once once these >> Yeah, they're still pretty premium. There's a lot of premium. You look at the 130s. I didn't expect to get, you know, even close to that for getting

[9:23:43] >> Yeah. Well, it's a trip. Let's, you know, pull up the chart. Um, go to 72, uh, you know, July 2nd. >> Yeah. >> Yep. See 72 and then go to crude 72. I

[9:23:56] mean, you could just see the complete reverse. It literally started >> exact same time. So, you wonder if they're going to talk about um what's they got to mention it. I wonder if they're worried about it. inflation

[9:24:08] inflation numbers we've been getting seems to be fine. So I'm really curious about more about what they're going to say on their earnings than um anything else. >> Yes. Yes. But but once again I don't

[9:24:20] mind being in the airlines. It's a it's a $120 product right now. It's got a 43 IVR. It's something that I'll lean towards. Now American Airlines is always a lot cheaper. Always a lot cheaper. But I I do prefer to play in the United

[9:24:32] realm. I think I can, you know, I think I can make a case for getting long this whether I sell a put or any way, shape, or form because I'm long oil. So >> Yeah, it's [laughter] probably the play. >> There you go. You're Wait, you're long

[9:24:45] yet? >> I just got in two days ago. >> I just got in two days ago. >> Yeah. No, I wasn't in the bottom. I I just I literally got in. I'm in for the ride to I don't know close to 90. We'll

[9:24:58] >> Poor Kakio was sweating it for the last two weeks. [laughter] didn't he? He pulled you into it. >> I I I I mean, I kind of felt like a talked to him about his wheel position. >> Well, let me tell you, if it keeps going

[9:25:12] He's really going to be annoyed. >> I think I think he did get out of a lot >> I'm telling you now, since you talked to him a lot, I'm telling you how this goes. If it keeps going up, he's going to be like annoyed. [laughter]

[9:25:27] >> Yeah. Yeah. >> That's what they say. Okay, what else did you guys do this morning? So, SPX in and out. Did you do >> We're making a shopping list. I'm making a shopping list of different trades. Um,

[9:25:40] >> Don't you want to get into them early? Don't you wish we could trade >> I mean, we can't. [laughter] What do we do about that? >> Yeah. >> Um, yeah, it's interesting to see. I

[9:25:53] >> you know what? Honestly, no. I don't want that. I don't want to trade waiting. I like the waiting and I like there's a finite time as far as individual names, you know, ES and and and SPX, that's great, you know, trading

[9:26:07] overall, but I don't want to trade individual. You know how you know what a headache that would be? >> I mean, it's coming. These headaches are >> If a CEO does something overnight, >> that's all I'm going to say. I'm just

[9:26:20] things. If I were CEO of a company and I was doing something bad, I would do it I don't feel like trading the stock at midnight. I want to go to sleep. But >> I really do have a I have a theory that if you have an earnings report that

[9:26:33] market opens, like you're trying to hide something. There's just no way. It's >> Friday. It's Friday. I agree with Jamal. It's Friday after the close when there's any like, huh? >> Yeah. [laughter] Just just slide that in

[9:26:46] Go hang out with your friends. discussions. I don't know why they didn't come out with their bad news on thinking? >> But you but I do think that that I think

[9:27:01] they're giving you the bad news and their earnings are going to be amazing. put. We'll see though. >> Yeah, I think I really think this is >> Yeah, this is a pretty clean situation here. Last time we saw this level was in

[9:27:16] >> and it was almost exactly the same price point and we we're already bouncing about three points from this level here. So, we're implied to open around 220. It'd be crazy if we saw this liquidation and then we just went straight back up.

[9:27:29] >> I mean, stranger things have happened, right? >> We saw that in copper. >> Yeah, >> It was. >> It dropped from from six down to four

[9:27:42] and then just immediately filled the gap over the next three months. just like natural gas and silver, isn't it? >> Yeah, it's it's a big one. Yeah, >> because I use COPX as my proxy, which is

[9:27:55] a stock. >> Yeah, this thing's a $160,000 product. >> Do you use what stock? Liz? >> COPX. It's a copper miner. >> I use copper minor company. Um, it's something This is God, I feel like I'm

[9:28:07] confessing all my sins. This is some I always have copper. I like I said, I'm a metal person, so I always have copper, gold, silver in my IRA, so I use COPX as >> Oh, okay. You don't use FCX? What about FCX? Um, I like FCX, but that's

[9:28:21] >> Everything. >> That's more That's more of a basket, before, but >> CCO is another one. Southern Copper Corporation. >> Used to trade both of those a lot. I

[9:28:34] metals like >> 08, 09, 2010. BHP was another one. Names are just coming back now. >> BHP. >> Let me tell you something. This stock used to be like 150 bucks. Used to move

[9:28:49] like a tech stock. >> Do you know uh what I'm noticing right something that people should keep an eye on. Under BHP, where the symbol is, it says hard to borrow. >> Mhm.

[9:29:04] stock. >> Call GS and get some locate. Liz, >> what' you say? used to do that a lot as a firm. [clears throat]

[9:29:16] >> 30 seconds to the bell here. Uh E- Minis are picking up a little bit of a bid here. Up 20. NASDAQ's chopping around. Um what do you think? What what do we feel on the open? Do we think we're going to just rip higher or sell off

[9:29:29] from these this recent rally? >> Oh, today is not a sell-off day. In my I'm saying and I'm I'm making the bold call and I've got a 20% [clears throat] chance of being right because I look at the delta. I am going. We will touch the

[9:29:42] the delta. I am going. We will touch the uh 6,500 or the the S&P that the big >> 7600 >> and we're off. >> 7600 today. >> It's moving out the gate.

[9:29:54] >> Micro strategyy's back over 100. >> Really? >> What's going on? What's going on in these uh Bitcoin?

[9:30:07] >> I'm [clears throat] asking for a friend. I've got a lot of Bitcoin products. >> Uh I mean it's cho it's just chopping around these lows. It's near the recent high of the recent trading range around 65K.

[9:30:19] Um but yeah, MSTR back over 100. Like Jamal said, I haven't traded this really all too much, but I do have this IBIT position. Uh I've got the 100 shares that I acquired at 65, but collected over three grand in premium last year.

[9:30:35] So my basis is at 35 there. trying to get another 100 shares at 35 to really just drop that basis down uh even more dramatically. But I have this Super Bowl setup. Sold a 35 put to buy two 45 calls

[9:30:48] >> Okay, come on. I got to We got to be honest here, Mike. You don't want another 100 shares the 35. You want to keep the premium. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, yes, I would love to keep the premium, but if I take the

[9:31:00] keep the premium, but if I take the shares, my basis at 65 drops to 50 and I still have already collected all that that value 3K. So, the nice thing if I take the shares, I can just start selling two calls against my 200 shares

[9:31:13] and keep piling on the credits. But, yeah, I mean, this was the the year-long trade of last year. So, yeah, I have $3,500 in premium collected all in all. at these low low levels and IBI bit, I'm still below my break even is below the

[9:31:27] current price with a ton of upside possibility here too. So I I like where >> And Jamal, what date was it that you said we were going to become crypto two weeks ago. >> What date that I said? Did I say that?

[9:31:41] everybody can become I said it's not too late. Yes. I said it's it's not too >> This is the time to crypto bro if you're actually bullish. >> Yeah, you really could. >> Yeah. Uh Frankie says about 200,000

[9:31:53] here. By the way, he just put something in the chat about the game today. About I'm sorry, not game, excuse me, match. Yes. Uh on the pitch uh today about poll. Who's going to be the winner? 55% so far say England. England and

[9:32:08] Argentina play today. Don't forget England has a 12th 12th person on the >> Why? >> Because they have FIFA on their side. [laughter] >> They have an extra person.

[9:32:21] >> It's just like any other sport. >> That's the rumor. It's the rumor. It's the rumor. Especially after the last like couple games. But we'll see. >> just watch you Have you watch Have you ever see it? And like Messi will go and

[9:32:34] gets a yellow card. It's like wait how'd that happen? >> It's like uh at a Kansas City game when Taylor Swift's there. If anyone just touches Travis Kelce, roughing roughing the passing right [laughter]

[9:32:47] immediately. Roughing the passer. >> All the calls >> So, so far it looks like uh I don't know. I'm trying to make heads or tails. see what's what's moving, right? What's the push and pull? Is it the semis? Is

[9:33:00] it the the the uh consumer staples and and software? It's hard to tell right now, actually. Like semies aren't like down by and large. Um, doesn't nothing is nothing is the big mover on the board today, right? So some

[9:33:13] days you come in the story is something else. There's nothing there's nothing >> This is the first day I feel like I've seen this where >> this is this is like uh I I'm I'm hearing TP in my ear. This is uh if you

[9:33:28] look at the watch this Nasdaq 100, there's a little bit of red but a lot of >> And [laughter] uh >> is that your best TP impression? >> Yeah. Yeah. for now. I got to hone it. But yeah, to

[9:33:40] the upside, [clears throat] we're seeing a lot more 2enters and and uh beyond. PayPal's up 14% on buyout news, but yeah, lots of twoenters, lots of close to 2enters, but then to the downside, your your biggest selloff is SanDisk at

[9:33:53] your your biggest selloff is SanDisk at 4%, but everything else is within 1%. Uh the upside, some broad strength to the upside in the NASDAQ 100. If we pop over to the S&P 100, you've got UNH down a little bit, down 2%, 1%, only a handful

[9:34:08] of names over 1% to the downside and then a lot of green, a lot of companies over 2%, a lot of companies over 1%. So, kind of pretty broad strength here uh lifting this market higher as the E- Minis hit 30 up 30 for the first time

[9:34:23] >> So, and what do you think about this upcoming earnings season you guys? Do everything is awesome, everything is cool when you're part of a team, the LEGO thing where everything is going to go up or do you think this is going to

[9:34:37] be a tale of two cities earning season? >> I think it's setting up for a rally. Uh and I think it's for a very similar reason that you have Liz where like volatility is down. The vault futures are in a steep contango here. the the N

[9:34:51] contracts just went below 17, but this is over a point of contango between the N and the Q and over a point of contango between the Q and the U. So, the contango in the market is a sign for calm. Of course, you got the VIX

[9:35:05] calm. Of course, you got the VIX creeping below uh below 16 and >> look at that. Yeah, I just think like but it's it is an interesting question because there's so much hype around these earnings announcements and these

[9:35:17] companies have to just destroy these numbers and basically say we're sold out until 2027 2028. I remember Nvidia one time Jensen Hong was he came to the mic and was like huffing and puffing I got to get back. We're sold out. We're sold

[9:35:30] the narrative. I think that's what you got to hear if we're going to rip higher >> Yeah. I mean I think I think you're right. >> So um and were you guys doing something in UNH this morning?

[9:35:45] >> Uh we were looking at >> um you know the one thing I I want I I I think these companies are making a lot of money. I think the one thing we have to watch out for is the crowded nature of the trade. Um and if we could cue up

[9:35:59] of the trade. Um and if we could cue up uh the uh other chart uh that we were one thing that we have to just pay attention to the crowded nature of the activity in a lot of these tech stocks. Uh this is from our friends at the SIBO

[9:36:13] got to watch out for. Again, that's what led to some of the little bit of selloff led to some of the little bit of selloff we saw at uh in June and um that's the one thing, you know, again, I'm I'm long deltas in in some of these things. So, I

[9:36:25] the big earnings in two weeks. We were just talking about this earlier, Meta, Microsoft, just to see how the reaction happens because I don't want to be too exposed to it. Um cuz I'm collecting a lot right now. Like my extrinsic is like

[9:36:37] worry about. >> Yeah. Well, there's nothing wrong with jump. You can jump back in immediately afterwards. >> Indeed. Indeed. >> Spoons are up 33 heading towards 7,600

[9:36:50] >> We love it. >> Big rally. >> Big rally. Uh yeah, crazy craziness here. If you put on a Super Bowl, you're looking good. Uh but a lot of this premium is it's we're still inside the

[9:37:03] premium is it's we're still inside the expected move, but I think S&P uh the one day move here is only 21 points now. So they zapped a lot of the premium. So I think a lot of neutral traders are probably benefiting from

[9:37:16] this as well. Um but yeah, Liz, we appreciate your time. We will see you a >> Sounds good. Thanks, boys. >> Yeah, absolutely. Have a good day. >> We got the E- Minis up 32, NASDAQ up 100. We're going to take a quick 90

[9:37:29] the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[9:40:39] say other than >> trade like a trader [music] tasty trade? What's up tasty nation? We are back. E-inasic selling off a tad here. E- mini

[9:40:52] only up 23. NASDAQ has been cut in half only up 55. We'll see what the rest of the market has for us today. Uh but my name is Mike. I'm here with Jamal and on the line. Mark, how you doing? >> I'm doing great. How you doing, guys?

[9:41:07] >> Fantastic. Fantastic. What are you looking at this fine morning? >> Well, uh, you know, a sector that I've been looking at for a few days now that that I don't think a lot of people are talking about. It's it's not as sexy as

[9:41:23] semiconductors and AI, uh, but it's insurance. The insurance sector is doing really, really well right now. Not surprising considering that interest rates are going higher and insurance companies simply make more money when

[9:41:37] interest rates go higher. They take the money that you send them for premiums and they invest it in in uh you know interestbearing uh instruments. And so higher interest rates simply mean they make more money.

[9:41:49] They don't pay out more money to you when you make a claim. It's not like your your, you know, $500,000 life insurance policy suddenly pays $550 if you have a claim or or your house burns down. You don't get more money, but

[9:42:02] they're making more money. And so, the sector is doing really really well. Uh, chart of the KIE, that's the insurance ETF, and it's been in a in a long base for about two years, spiked up in the

[9:42:15] last couple of weeks. And so just from a a fundamental and technical uh perspective, I think this sector has a lot further to run. >> Yeah, it's been in this channel like you said since I we'll call it November,

[9:42:30] October of 2024. It's been in this 55 to 60 range and we finally had this breakout above uh the current market. And yeah, it's it is an interesting thought like when you think about uh insurance companies, they operate very

[9:42:44] similar to Tasty Trade options traders. You're selling options, you're the risk, [clears throat] and you assume that over time your premiums collected offset that risk, but it's a nice kicker when you you're collecting a 4% interest

[9:42:58] rate on top of your your huge amounts of of capital that you've got on hand. of collecting money, many of the insurance companies do uh pay a dividend. Not all of them have a a particularly high dividend, but you

[9:43:13] you're receiving while you're holding these stocks if you're if you're holding the actual uh equities instead of options. Um but what I also like about the sector is it's just not being talked about. You know, it's very quietly

[9:43:26] rising. Uh flying very much under the radar. So, I think eventually uh it's the financials are. I mean, right now some of the the big financials, the the giant banks are certainly getting

[9:43:40] is kind of sneaking under the radar and and it's a place that you can still get in a little bit early before everyone >> It's not being talked about at all, unlike a sector that uh is being talked

[9:43:54] you talked about uh you and I talked about a couple of months ago when we had an interview was Oracle and that sector and are you still worried about debt in that whole sector as far as related to AI and the bond sales etc.?

[9:44:07] >> Yeah, absolutely. I mean the amount of debt that has been issued in the sector is uh is is really phenomenal. I mean, right now you've got, I think in the last last few months, there have been

[9:44:21] last last few months, there have been about $25 billion in bonds issued by about $25 billion in bonds issued by Alphabet, um 25 billion by Oracle. I mean, there is just a tremendous amount of debt being taken on by the sector.

[9:44:34] And you know, if you look back through history at some of the major crashes, you know, the dotcom boom wasn't really a debtfueled crash because a lot of those companies were just was just kind of garbage companies. But a lot of the

[9:44:48] the the real busts, you know, going back a century or more, the railroads, the autos, radio, uh these were giant bubbles just like we saw in in early 2000, the dotcoms and we're starting to see now. and they were th those bubbles

[9:45:04] collapsed because of debt. And I think that's what we're we're going to see Alphabet is about to go out of business anytime soon, but the amount of debt is really really concerning. The six hyperscalers have issued $244 billion in

[9:45:21] debt this year. Uh, and it it's, you know, I do think history is going to repeat itself at some point, whether that's, you know, I'm not calling for a crash in two weeks or or necessarily even two years. I don't know what inning

[9:45:33] we're in, but this has a very very familiar pattern to past crashes. and and it it's really no surprise, you know, there there's a gold rush out there and so companies are going to do what that what they feel is necessary to

[9:45:46] what that what they feel is necessary to be the winners, but uh taking on massive out. >> I mean, the Mark Lickenfell is a nice guy. We talked in April. The stock is basically where it is now. It took off

[9:45:58] He could have had a chance to cheerlead, but he was really a nice guy about it. >> Hey, I mean, yeah, it's going to be interesting. I think we're kind of at this turning point where uh the banks have already reported earnings and uh or

[9:46:13] most of them I should say and that is always the indicator that we are on the announcements and a lot of these companies are going to be announcing earnings and to your point I think uh if some of them you know say we're

[9:46:27] increasing debt we're increasing capex maybe that's a warning sign and maybe we report good numbers I mean a lot of these companies companies are just going to have record numbers as they as you would expect. We've been seeing that in

[9:46:39] a lot of these bigname tech stocks. But >> yeah, I think uh to your point that this is one of those warning signs where if you are bearish or if you have a bearish lean in the future, this is clearly uh something to keep an eye on.

[9:46:54] necessarily bearish on all the hyperscalers and the whole sector. Oracle in particular I am because not only do they have massive amounts of debt uh but they are bleeding cash uh they they

[9:47:09] had 24 billion I believe in negative cash flow last year uh next year the estimate went from 24 billion to -45 billion. Uh but and the most important reason I'm so bearish on Oracle is besides for the massive amount of debt

[9:47:24] is their offbalance sheet obligations. So they have uh about uh $248 billion in offbalance sheet obligations in the form of leases for these data centers. Now

[9:47:38] they are backed by backlog from AI companies like OpenAI, particularly OpenAI, they're their largest customer by far. But what happens if Open AI can't pay their bill? And the CFO of OpenAI recently said that she is very

[9:47:55] concerned that revenue is not going to reach their target. So if suddenly Open reach their target. So if suddenly Open AAI can't pay their bill, Oracle has these lease obligations that they are obligated, legally obligated to pay.

[9:48:08] They're bleeding cash flow. They've got massive debt. They don't have the cash to cover it. Uh you know, they've really gone all in on AI. And I think this is going to end very very badly. I think we're in the very very early stages of

[9:48:21] this stock collapsing from a technical perspective. Uh it has now broken support. So I I think the next stop is is about $99 in the near term. Um but I I think this is a stock that for fundamental reasons could fall all the

[9:48:34] way down to let's say $20 because uh of their massive debt, their massively expected to improve anytime soon, and these off balance sheet obligations. If if OpenAI runs into any trouble, uh it's it's lights out for Oracle.

[9:48:48] >> I mean, I hear you, but I think Open AI is too big to fail, honestly. I I think type of financing. But as we say, is there any of them that you like? Any any some great names that have come to market more recently. Uh not in the same

[9:49:02] the world. Obviously, we just had SKH Highix. Um are there any of these names that you're interested in at all, these tech names? Yeah, I mean, you know, this is this is not going to be uh the biggest surprise, but Nvidia, I mean,

[9:49:15] it's the 800 pound gorilla, and when you look at their their valuation, it's really not that crazy. If they can hit their targets or Wall Street's targets, it's trading at about 16 times 2028 earnings. Uh that's really not uh not

[9:49:29] unreasonable at all as long as they can hit it. Uh and of any company that should succeed, I would assume it will be Nvidia. But I also, you know, Microsoft, Alphabet, these are also 800 pound gorillas. So, I'm really not

[9:49:44] sticking my neck out too far here. Um, but uh, so I think those are going to be the winners. But I do think you need to be really careful about some of the the companies like Oracle and any others that are just bleeding cash right now

[9:49:57] because the cash flow is really king. As long as you have the cash flow to service your debt, then that's fine. Uh, but if you don't, uh, this could end quite badly. >> Yeah. Absolutely. phenomenal stuff. Uh,

[9:50:09] interesting things about this is everything is so intertwined. Like all each other in some way. Like you look at Nvidia and yes, Nvidia has a ton of capital, a huge cap uh market cap, but if you look at their deals, it's it's

[9:50:24] other companies. So, it's like that that I think could be one of those uh things these companies are intertwined. They're all failing now. And that's that could be the future catalyst for uh some kind of movement. But it's it's ominous

[9:50:39] because the markets are uh Nasdaq actually just ticked red. But the volatility futures are basically saying nothing to see here. Uh but we know that >> Right. >> And you bring up an excellent point

[9:50:51] because right now it's not a problem. If this all were to unwind kind of the way back and say, "Oh yeah, that was these intertwined deals. Of course it was going to end that way. I'm not

[9:51:04] saying it it will. Um but I think if it does, if that scenario plays out, we course." >> Absolutely. Mark, appreciate your time. That was a great great segment. Uh and hopefully we'll see you again soon.

[9:51:17] See you. >> Absolutely. Yeah. NASDAQ just ticked red, down 24 now. E- mini sliding a bit, down uh only up 11. We're seeing a little divergence there, but it feels like it might be one of those days where

[9:51:31] uh we slowly slide, chop around. Uh but yeah, inside move so far, but uh we're We'll catch you on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Lab.

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[9:54:09] Jamal. We got E on the line live from the SIBO floor. And E, it sounds like some things are flying around there. We're hearing some hearing some noise. hear it through the earpiece right here. No, a lot of movement today. Looks like

[9:54:25] we got a morning selloff so far. I'm hoping that S&P and the S&P 500 is showing the sell off like NASDAQ is so far today. But no, I mean, jokes aside, last Friday, I think we had an opening gap on NASDAQ at around or we closed

[9:54:38] last Friday at around 30,68. I don't know all my gap filler of filled that gap for the most part. So, we'll see if we get any more downside momentum here today, but things are pretty volatile. Uh oil's in play,

[9:54:51] lot of names that we can be trading right now. Uh but yeah, uh a pretty crazy morning so far, >> that's for sure. Uh NASDAQ just ticked green. and E- Minis are up to being up 20 again. We're seeing some some quick

[9:55:05] were up significantly more. E- minis were up 30. NASDAQ was up 100. Seems like we're sliding here. Uh I actually just filled got filled on a Super Bear. So, started the morning the Super Bowl before the PPI report. Closed that. Now

[9:55:20] I'm got a Super Bear on U. And I actually just got filled on my Microsoft Super Bowl. That was a thousand winner after two weeks. Um so, I don't know. Got it. I'm I'm trying to take off some risk here uh as these

[9:55:35] markets chop around. >> Yeah. No, 100%. I know uh Microsoft that one uh Microsoft was running alongside uh Apple as well. I know Apple made days ago. Uh so it's nice to see a little bit more volatility pumped into

[9:55:49] take advantage of selling a little bit more volatility whenever volatility can we've seen a rally in the last couple of days. It's nice we've seen a rally the last couple of days. Uh but would love to see

[9:56:03] premium on uh to at least be able to manage more of these positions. Uh but right here, it just looks like we're really funneling into that range right now. What is your guys' perception or thoughts about that? It looks like that

[9:56:16] range is getting smaller and smaller. Um and maybe we break either way. Another pullback. There's a couple different options that could happen. like that. It seems like uh we just been holding in the range. I this is just in

[9:56:29] my head, but I feel like sometimes once we get around earnings, we start to sort of decipher the earnings numbers and they're coming out, you know, as as the >> I feel like sometimes too by the end of that week, it's like the the pressure

[9:56:42] nice little move to the upside or downside. So, I think we're just going look like we're coiling for a potential breakout. smaller. >> Yeah. this 30k level. Uh it seems like

[9:56:56] we're just laser beam focused on this level. Uh and we'll see where we go from here. But what do you uh what do you make of this NASDAQ market? >> Um no, it's it's been a really difficult market to trade. It's been forcing you

[9:57:10] to be a little bit more patient here. uh like for example some of the levels that levels where we had most of the trading activity that occurred yesterday and at on NASDAQ seems to be a pretty pivotal area because um near the close near the

[9:57:26] close yesterday we had tons of tons and tons of selling at around 29,810. So does that mean the market is going to continue lower? continue lower? No, not really. But it does let us know um market participants

[9:57:42] levels. So whether the market's going to break up higher or break lower, we're going to find out. It's all going to be hindsight. Uh but in terms of volume and sellers find it to be a little bit more attractive, it seems like this is is one

[9:57:55] So we'll see what we get here in the next 30 minutes to an hour. >> Yeah, absolutely. I think uh there's some things if you look at the NASDAQ specifically uh in this watch list the NASDAQ 100

[9:58:10] >> we can see there's a handful of names that are really ripping higher PayPal on buyout uh rumors but to the downside you've got SanDisk WDC Marll shop Micron so we're seeing a little bit of a rotation out of hardware into software

[9:58:26] uh with Microsoft being up pretty significantly here up five points up almost 2%. Can you sort that alphabetically? Is TSM in that >> TSM? >> Yeah,

[9:58:38] >> No, >> it is not. Uh, >> I'm just curious. >> Wondering how much that's going to I >> mean, I'm sure it will anyway just

[9:58:51] because it is a tech name and it's TSM, but I'm just curious how much it would move the NASDAQ. >> Yeah, it's it's interesting though. E, we've got the E- Minis up 22, the NASDAQ's only up 17.

[9:59:03] >> Uh, wow. >> Typically, we see uh obviously NASDAQ higher than the E- Minis on a dollar basis, but NASDAQ's chopping around tick from red to green a handful of times. Uh, but I think the energy

[9:59:18] products may be propping up the E- Minis just a little bit more right now as uh the tech space kind of figures it out. >> No, 100%. And I know you guys are of that rotation. Um I know IBM had gapped down, you know, speaking about

[9:59:33] things similar to that. How is IBM doing today? >> Was up, still up a little bit. >> Sold off from the open just a tad, but 1%. >> Uh we have a call calendar spread in

[9:59:46] there at 250. >> So I'm going to be looking at rolling this thing. Yeah, let's let's see what we can get. So, this option, the short option for the 2-day, I sold for.7 cents. It's trading for 10 cents now.

[9:59:59] It's worthless. So, I want to roll this to the 9day and pick up some premium. If we go to the same exact strike, I can pick up two bucks here. If I route this for two bucks, let's see if I can get filled uh into a small rally from here.

[10:00:13] >> How weird that is though, like you're So, just so people understand trading, that. No. Oh, never mind. For the spread, particular option. My bad. I was going to say should be saying too often.

[10:00:26] >> Yeah. Yeah. Um but yeah, I think rolling from the two-day to the 9-day just reduces that basis even more. This is already a pretty cheap trade, but we'll we'll go from $6 to $4 in net debit in terms of the cost and we'll have a an

[10:00:40] earnings shot here uh with a 20 point implied move from here. I really like the way that sets up because now we'll have the ability to capture all that $200 in the nine day and we'll have this inventory delta in August. There's your

[10:00:55] NASDAQ kicking green. >> Yeah, TSM is 3% 3 to 4% of the NASDAQ 100. It's 9 and a half% of SMH and 4 and a.5% of SOXX. So >> There you go. >> Ed, there we go. Got a lot of exciting

[10:01:09] >> Yeah. 100%. Uh thanks for your time. We'll catch you a little bit later today. But yeah, this 30,000 level, like you said, is going to be interesting. We bounced right off of it earlier this morning and uh couple days ago as well.

[10:01:24] morning and uh couple days ago as well. So, we need to see above 30K if we uh want to get to 3166, which is with a recent high uh over the last couple months. But yeah, E- Minis are up 30 right now. We've got uh an

[10:01:38] interesting session here, it appears. Uh yeah, speaking of um I rolled my year-long trades yesterday. So >> the MNQ trade short the uh 31,000 straddle. I was short it in the July 31st expiration um after some uh well

[10:01:55] basically I had to lag it. It wouldn't let me do it as one trade. Um, so had to close out the July 31s and then sold the uh August 21s and then in MEES uh similar deal rolled that out to the August 31st expiration from the July

[10:02:10] straddle. >> Love it. Yeah. Uh lots of lots of of these trades. You have so much flexibility with the s the small size of

[10:02:22] those products. But yeah, we'll see what's going on with this market. NASDAQ chatting, but we're going to take a quick 90 second break. You're watching quick 90 second break. You're watching Tasty Live.

[10:02:47] approved FINRA's proposal to eliminate the pattern day trader rule, also known the pattern day trader rule, also known as the PDT rule. This is a big deal for many retail traders. For more than 20 years, the PDT rule has been a major

[10:02:59] roadblock for smaller accounts that wanted to actively trade stocks or options intraday. In other words, we call it day trading. Here's how it used call it day trading. Here's how it used to work. If you made four or more day

[10:03:11] trades within a rolling five business day period, your account could be flagged with a pattern day trader designation. To keep that status, your margin account had to maintain at least $25,000.

[10:03:24] amount, your account could be restricted from trading and issued a PDT related call. At Tasty Trade, they're called an equity maintenance call or an EM call. The result, retail traders with smaller accounts were effectively limited from

[10:03:40] actively participating in markets simply because they didn't have enough capital. Now, that's changing. Under the approved update to FINRMA rule 4210, the PDT designation is being removed. And that means you no longer have to limit the

[10:03:56] number of day trades you make in a five business day period. And you no longer have to maintain $25,000 minimum just to keep day trading in your margin account. In short, as long as your buying power stays positive, you

[10:04:09] can continue to day trade in your margin account. On our platform, we show real-time buying power so you can always see where you stand and keep your risk in check. Now, it's important to talk about timing. While this news can be

[10:04:23] exciting, these rules will not take effect overnight. The new rules will become active 45 days after FINRA publishes its regulatory notice. After that, firms that need more time to update their system will have that

[10:04:37] additional time, up to 18 months, to fully phase in those changes. So, be sure to check with your broker for their specific rollout timeline. And remember, day trading is extremely risky and not suitable for everyone. You must be

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[10:05:02] tuned. There's a beast in the financial world There's a beast in the financial world [music] If that's [music] you, join us on Tasty Trade.

[10:05:17] Trade. Genius loves company.

[10:05:33] the show. We've got the E- Minis and NASDAQ trying to tick higher here. E- Minis up 30, NASDAQ up 60. We placed a lot of trades today, so we're going to run through those real quick. Uh if you want to check them out on the Taste

[10:05:45] Trade follow page, you can do just that. Just click on this follow feed. You can isolate myself and Jamal date range from today or even from yesterday. You can see all the stuff we've done. >> But yeah, uh you want to walk through

[10:05:57] your stuff first and we can hop around. >> Yeah. Where are we starting with? Oh, so uh this was actually a pre-market trade as you can see by the time and uh it was a super bare trade. Wanted to get some short deltas against the portfolio here.

[10:06:11] I'm actually doing well with the market right here. Um so this is kind of one of those it was one of those situations just to offset that. If we have a day and we end up being down like 50 points, I know my portfolio is not going to be

[10:06:24] things that would be the few things that would be positive in the portfolio. So, it's just kind of an anticipation trade. I'm fine. How am I managing it? I'm Speaking of had one of these yesterday that ended up right in the middle and

[10:06:37] just was able to collect the $100 credit and moved on. And so, for this, I I'm um fine um losing money on this trade because I'm winning in other places. because I'm winning in other places. Trust me, it's fine. Uh UNH

[10:06:51] earnings play. So, look, the real idea here, I would love to sell a put in UNH, of earnings. I'm not a lover of selling ahead of earnings. Earnings is such a crapshoot. You can get a big move out of nowhere. So, I actually do want it to go

[10:07:03] These are fairly cheap as you can see. A $135$160 just about give you a point a penny of price improvement. But if it does go paid and I will be looking to sell a put.

[10:07:16] >> I like it. Yeah, I think I might join you in both of these just because the total debit here is less than $3. Uh just slightly under that. and you've got the ability to have a nice return on debit paid, similar to the JP Morgan

[10:07:29] trade yesterday. It was almost the exact same setup, just 10 points between the two call calendars and it landed right between them. U so yeah, love of that. between them. U so yeah, love of that. And then um yeah, today I got into an

[10:07:44] And then um yeah, today I got into an S&P Super Bowl. This was before the uh PPI report, 5 minutes before, and then the market ripped up to like where we are now. closed it for $150 winner and then we saw the NASDAQ slide. So I was

[10:07:58] the NASDAQ, maybe I threw maybe I throw on a super bare one day out though." So I was still plenty of time here. I'm at the 76 7610 7520 7510. That was a 30cent credit. So really just giving up all the credit to finance the cost of the debit

[10:08:13] spread. So we'll see if that plays out. Uh I closed as the Microsoft Super Bowl that I put on I want to say a month ago. uh the 320 340 put spread to finance the 400440 call spread. So 40 point wide call spread. This is a $1,000 winner uh

[10:08:29] into this rally from 360 to 390. So these trades can really work out stock. As long as you get a little bit of a directional move, the call spread can really fill up here. And then uh IBM, I was just filled on that roll that

[10:08:44] I was talking about this morning. So I've got the 250 call in August. So, I rolled from the 2-day to the 9-day just now for a $200 credit. So, that brings my cost basis down from $600 to $400. And, uh, I now have this earnings

[10:09:01] calendar spread. So, short the 9-day, which has the earning cycle, long August, which has a lot lower implied volatility. Uh, so we'll see what happens, but playing for a reversal here in a defined risk way.

[10:09:13] >> Beautiful. >> Love it. Love it. Love it. Uh, we have >> Time. >> Uh soon we'll have Tim Knight on the line. But uh yeah, I think at the end of the day, we're going to see what he has

[10:09:28] to say about some of the bearish setups he's looking for. U I wonder if SpaceX is making a move. Isn't it so funny? Everyone's paying attention to SpaceX >> we're not even think about it." Yeah, I know. Same thing with SKI nicks, right?

[10:09:40] >> it's done. It's whatever. But the we're joking about that obviously, but if you see a big move in either direction, uh I think we'll see what happens here. But Mr. Tim Knight, got him on the line. How you doing this morning?

[10:09:57] >> Oh, you're good. >> Yeah, little little bit of computer confusion on my end, but we are ready to roll now. Um so um yeah, you know what? Since since we got a 32 second late start, let me just jump right into the

[10:10:11] symbols here. U got a few items wanted to thumb through. Um the first one was uh on the one hand um massively great news today for one stock, but uh it's just sort of undoing a huge amount of multi-year damage, which is PayPal. Uh

[10:10:27] looks like they're getting some buyout interest from Stripe. And for the moment, it's a about a 16% pop on the day. But kind of when you look at the big picture in the midst of the greatest tech bull market in human history,

[10:10:41] PayPal's been beyond horrible. Um it it it got to about a tenth of its peak value. Uh so uh probably a bargain basement price for the likes of Stripe out there. Um so that's and Michael Bur's talking a lot about the company

[10:10:55] too. He he thinks it he thinks it'll go higher. Um the wipeout yesterday was IBM anything right now. Very much an inside day. A lot of chatter about the 25% plus

[10:11:07] agreement as to how historic it was. Some say it was the biggest drop of all time. Others say since 1961, some say since 1968. Suffice to say it was a really bad day for IBM. And I think they report um maybe next week. Um, it's

[10:11:24] known in advance that you're not going to like the numbers you're about to see. a lot of attention for obvious reasons is SpaceX, which is stable now, which I

[10:11:36] faint praise. It's it's sort of lingering just above its 135 um IPO lingering just above its 135 um IPO price. And mo most of our listeners and viewers understand uh there is a distinction between the IPO price which

[10:11:51] is 135 which is kind of what the bankers get versus the public opening price around 150. Um so pretty much everyone's traded this in the public markets is is in the negative right now. And the the scary thing, as I keep saying daily, is

[10:12:05] that uh there there's when you're when you're at lifetime lows, it's just a psychological game of just how much are folks willing to tolerate in terms of before they throw their arms up and say, "Forget it." Cuz psychologically,

[10:12:19] absolutely surefire support is the number zero. And the distance between whatever you're at and zero is is tests people's tolerance for financial pain. Um really crucial chart right now. I think and the the two they're obviously

[10:12:36] important at all times, but the ENQ and the ES and we'll end them with the ES very important in very different worlds right now. Uh the ENQ is bouncing between this green support and the red

[10:12:50] resistance and we've got this yellow uh 50 yard line if you will that we've been below for the past couple of weeks. And um I'm very short tech, very short semiconductors and uh tip of the hat to the market gods. This is actually a

[10:13:05] really good day for me so far even with green ES green ENQ green RTY because um the semiconductors are showing some real weakness. For example, just to thumb through these uh at a faster pace uh and these aren't all necessarily semis per

[10:13:21] se, but they're definitely tech uh with a prepoundonderance of semis. So we've open short positions for me. So this is down over 3% and shaping up to be the completion I think of a nice topping pattern. We've got Nokia doing its job

[10:13:37] working lower day by day. Another 3% plus uh drop there. Uh ST Micro Electronics down about 2% having broken that ascending trend line. And in the vast majority of the cases, if not all, they have broken that March 30 trend

[10:13:52] line, which like the diamonds has not bought the draw to break and so forth. But most of these have snapped that uptrend. Um, AXTI down again 3 and a3%.

[10:14:04] And this pattern here, very simple pattern, very similar to what I was just showing with CRDO. The difference being CRDO is not quite complete yet. I think CRDO is not quite complete yet. I think it's getting close. Uh Sienna CEN nice

[10:14:16] tumble there 4.44 u uh numerologically very negative but working towards some multi-month lows possibly lummentum li

[10:14:29] uh down over 5%. completed pattern here. Very pretty. We've got u this months of um distribution top. We've got our drop here retrace. Looks like it pooped out

[10:14:42] yesterday in terms of its counterren rally and now we're resuming the uh the weakness. Marll also completed a top and interestingly so I as I mentioned yesterday I covered here based on the price gap closed. It

[10:14:58] rallied. So, I I reopened the trade. I've stuck with it since then, and now we're slipping down to new lows for this little cycle, well below that sealed little cycle, well below that sealed price gap. Uh Micron Mu down almost 5%.

[10:15:13] Um let's let's tidy up this trend line a little bit. That's not quite accurate. Um so, in this case, yeah, no, it still has it has broken that. It's been teasing a little bit. Now, we're cleanly below that that uptrend. A couple more

[10:15:26] examples here. STX. These are storage related Seagate technology down almost 6%. Another clean trend line break here. Just and just I'm tightening up the stops daytoday on these. Just tightening them up. And then WDC relatedly uh down

[10:15:41] almost um 7%. [clears throat] Same failed trend line. And as I say, I just got to emphasize it is a very green day in the market in general. But to a man, these guys are are all in the red. And that's being broadly led, of course, and

[10:15:56] summed up with the likes of SMH, which is kind of a core position for me. January puts on this um red bar yesterday, red day today. That's all lovely, but it won't really matter until and unless we can get below this low,

[10:16:11] this multi-month low uh of support. That's that would really get things rocking and rolling. And the last chart I wanted to share, which is kind of a um I wanted to share, which is kind of a um the doppelganger to INQ, uh is the ES.

[10:16:26] This is a risk for the bears, if I dare to use the plural. Um it is so close to a breakout. It has been trapped in this multi-month range. Um pushing above that

[10:16:39] range would uh throw a lot of fuel on the bullish fire. And we've got a very split market on our hands because this looks very solid for a rally and for a breakout. And on the other hand, I'm looking at a lot of red quotes right

[10:16:53] who's going to who's going to win the day on this. So, that's what we have. Very bullish looking in the likes of the ES, but uh nice breakdowns going on with the tech stocks. >> Oh my god, I can't believe he just said

[10:17:07] those word. I I'm like I'm dumbfounded. He said bullish. He said rally. He said breakout. I think Koshi had a market of whether you would say one of those three believe it. You said all three of them. >> Well, you it should it should strike

[10:17:22] terror into your bullish hearts. [laughter] It really should. >> These are the word. This is my elixir >> cuz it ain't going to happen. So, I'm just just doing what I do. >> Good stuff. Good stuff.

[10:17:35] >> Yeah. It's funny. uh as you were chatting about the weakness in the NASDAQ and the strength in E- Minis, the E- Minis kind of held on to being up 30 today, but the NASDAQ actually ticked red. Uh the NASDAQ went from up 30-ish

[10:17:48] to flat to red, and now we're seeing the same thing. It's been the story of today is the NASDAQ kind of underperforming relative to the E- Minis, which is not something you see every day. Well, I'm I'm deeply embedded here in

[10:18:01] the in the trenches of the Silicon Valley and and there's definitely a some sea change going on in terms of like is this AI hall thing going to work out trillions and trillions of dollars at risk and there's some warts appearing

[10:18:14] here and there. So yeah, maybe that's what we're witnessing because it is a with you, I'm actually super interested in that and what you're seeing locally reacting to the current environment. I'm I'm sure there's some tells.

[10:18:29] I'm sure there's some tells. >> Buy me a beer. [laughter] We'll do. >> But uh no and and but incidentally, we have a lot of fun here making videos and unrelated to this. There's another one we're working on for this week related

[10:18:42] to the elections and the market. So, I think people really enjoy that as well. >> It is a midterm year. Yeah, it's it's it's it's easy to get caught up in all trading, but it is a midterm year and there's usually some interesting stuff

[10:18:54] 100%. >> No, I I I I think you'll like it. Definitely some thoughts to share. Um but boy, we live in interesting times >> That is for sure. >> Well, thanks Tim. Appreciate you. We'll

[10:19:08] see you later today. >> Sounds good. Uh yeah, E- Minis and NASDAQ. E-in kind of just flat. I mean, the intraday range has been within 10 points over the last hour or so, but the NASDAQ has been a different story. If

[10:19:21] you look at the minute chart of the NASDAQ, you can see the sell-off, the chart for the E- Minis is uh basically flat. This is the last couple of uh

[10:19:33] minutes here. We've had a six-point range. So, crazy. >> I know. I kind I agree with him with Marll. I'm sure putting Marll and it's actually starting to break down and it's uh it's it's kind of fallen almost it's

[10:19:46] in it's in it's almost completed the gap here. And um yeah, if it gets below that here. And um yeah, if it gets below that uh what is the low here on on June 1st serious problems. I'm short a put in here. I'm short the 220 put. So I'm not

[10:20:02] to decide what I want to do. >> Yeah, it's uh it's sliding as we speak. NASDAQ is down 20 points now. Complete inverse uh tick from the E- Minis. EMI

[10:20:14] inverse uh tick from the E- Minis. EMI is up 27, NASDAQ down 27. So yeah, uh I don't know. It feels like this is a a sell the rally kind of day, at least in an kind of an inside move type situation, but we'll see. It's been uh

[10:20:29] it's been a wild morning so far. You got Meta up seven points. Microsoft's now up 11 and a half. That's crazy. >> Uh I guess I shouldn't have closed that >> We'll take [laughter] it. We'll take it. Julia, we've got on the line uh and of

[10:20:44] morning. Julia, what do you think of these markets? these markets? I was looking at J&J. It recovered. That was the one I was actually watching the most today because it's up like 75%

[10:20:56] since January of uh 2025. Yeah. And it took I think 11 years. I I tweeted about this yesterday. It took 11 years for them to grow that much prior to that. So saw a little bit of a correction after actually pretty strong earnings reports,

[10:21:10] expecting them to like really smash expectations and they didn't. So, uh, even though they had strong earnings, strong guidance, they opened down. Um, recovering. So, I'm looking looking over at biotech

[10:21:23] >> Shoot, I totally forgot about this. >> Sweet. Sweet. I'm here. >> We were talking about UNH. They have earnings uh before the market opens tomorrow. So, ultimately, last time to

[10:21:36] trade it is today. Uh, and I actually want to follow Jamal's trades here. the uh three 440 450 call calendars. I think this uh makes a lot of sense in terms of

[10:21:48] the just taking a shot the upside. >> Yeah, >> just taking a shot. Speaking of taking a shot, you guys are not going to believe >> What do we got? >> You want to take a guess? We're talking

[10:22:02] about long options. >> Yeah, right. I love it. Yeah. >> I'm not a long option hater. If you like to buy options, I'm not a hater. I like to go with the pops because I don't have money to just buy options all the time.

[10:22:15] But I wanted to look at on long options. Um strategies are very different, right, selling options. So here you're kind of looking for pops in like volatility or you know like price volatility for example and really trying to get out

[10:22:28] wanted to look at the numbers. >> Beautiful. >> Cool. So yeah, we tend to focus like the research tend focuses uh tends to focus there we go on short premium strategies uh uh rather than long just because out

[10:22:42] of the money long option strategies tend to carry sub50 pops um and losses tend to sort of like average negative or P&Ls I should say tend to average negative in the long term. So, I wanted to look at if you're trading uh you know like a

[10:22:55] long option strategy that's more volatile like than your typical you know 16 delta longerdated option. Here we're looking at 30 delta 10 DTE long spy strangles. I wanted to look at what the impact would be if you were to add a

[10:23:08] small profit targets in the 10 to 40% range to those strategies with the goal of trying to like capture the you know inherent you know P&L volatility we tend to observe in options and trying to you know basically capture small profits get

[10:23:20] out how does that affect your long-term or I should say your average um expected you know trade performance. >> Love it. I have some thoughts but I'll end. >> Thoughts. Okay, let's take a look. I

[10:23:34] like I like hearing the ending thoughts. Um so looking at this study uh we're market conditions. Um so we're looking at 2024 uh to present basically January 2024 to present. And I wanted to pick a strategy that was already like pretty

[10:23:48] close to 50% um probability of profit. So I looked at long 30 delta 10D spy strangles. Theoretical pop on that's around like 45%. So sub 50%. Um, but the idea again is like we're just trying to capture like pops in P&L and trying to

[10:24:02] get out and to accumulate small profits um sort of over time. So I'm going to be looking at basically uh 10 20% 30% and 40% profit targets to see how that statistics. And then for winning trades, I wanted to look at kind of like where

[10:24:17] come from the call side? Did they come from the put side? Or did they come from neither, which we're kind of attributing to IV? We're going to be using like expiration or management basically to estimate that. Make sense?

[10:24:33] strangles and just checking to see um what kind of big move happens and whether that uh whether the put or the call makes money. >> Yep. Exactly. And so, and this is an important little research background

[10:24:45] because we're basically we're not looking except in the zero DTE studies, intraday activity. we're looking at like one data point every day at 2:45 p.m. So these a lot of these numbers are basically minimums that could be boosted

[10:25:00] not accounting for here. So that's just a little like research caveat that I wanted to kind of say. Um but when we looked at the results uh I found them actually to be pretty interesting. So looking again you know short time frame

[10:25:13] 2024 to present uh when we look at these 10 20 and 30 and 40% profit targets we can see that it actually for the small profit targets of 10 to 20% that boosts your pop from the theoretical 45% to between 58 and 65%. So pops get boosted.

[10:25:29] Um, average P&Ls are like kind of the highest for the small profit targets. But when we look at median P&Ls, which is kind of like your snapshot of your typical trade experience, taking kind of the tails out of it, you can see that

[10:25:41] like those median P&Ls actually peak around 20% and then proceed to drop off. targets of 40%, that's when your kind of statistics across the board really start to become much less favorable. But those small profit targets, we're seeing a

[10:25:54] especially when it comes to probability P&L. >> Yeah, this is not surprising to me. I ask the question or say what I want to say because my whole my whole thing was

[10:26:09] like there's a time and a place for long options and especially longer term long options. And if you're managing them at a small percentage of your debit paid, probability. It's going to be a high it's going to be a high pop like we're

[10:26:22] that if you're holding these trades to expiration, you're trying to get a huge more risk and your probability is going to significantly drop off. exactly what we're seeing here where those low profit targets um like a lot

[10:26:38] longerdated strategies for short premium strategies where you know you're putting up capital in those trades sometimes an undefined you know loss potentially estimate what those are most likely going to be but you want to collect

[10:26:52] enough to compensate for that tail risk as unlikely as it might be. the strategy the long slide side which is that you're trying to just kind of take small gains over time and cap you know before the theta decay really kicks in and that's

[10:27:05] why that 10 to 20% at least in the specific back test was kind of that sweet spot and then this is what I found especially interesting which is that basically where the profits came from for these neutral strategies is that

[10:27:19] call side and the put side. I really thought the calls were going to dominate over the last two years, but it was pretty evenly split. And the other, you know, interesting, you know, conclusion that we found here, I guess, isn't that

[10:27:32] small profit targets, that's when you're the most likely to profit just from IV. basically when there was no strike breach on either side and just the IV was kind of enough to sort of like get that 10% like that small profit target.

[10:27:47] Um, so that yeah, for the small profit target, those are the ones that tend to fluctuations. And then when you get out to the larger profit targets of like 20 30%. Um, that's when kind of your strike breaches and your directional movements

[10:28:00] split between calls and puts which I found very interesting. like we I was seeing that in the crude oil markets where directionally I I should have been making money but with

[10:28:14] my short straddle but I was losing money because of the IV increase but it wasn't that much. It was a small chunk. So yeah, you're not going to see the massive IV increases without a directional move in something like SPY

[10:28:26] >> Yeah. bit as we kind of go further from out of the money. When you're getting to the expected move, that's kind of when I would expect like your puts to really

[10:28:38] come from the puts, but your more frequent profits to really come from the calls. But just looking at these already, you know, kind of like high pop baseline long premium strategies. It's pretty evenly split. Um, and then yeah,

[10:28:51] really when you start to kind of be more likely to capture fluctuations from IV versus like there were no, you know, 40% profit target occurrences that profited from IV in this, you know, kind of restricted study. Make sense?

[10:29:05] >> Yeah. >> Cool. So, when we're looking at 10DT30 time, these are normally sub50, you know, strategies. Theoretically, uh, they have a 45% theoretical pop. um but exiting at small profit targets of 10 to

[10:29:20] 20% actually boosted that realized pop up to 58 to 65%. So we saw more favorable probabilities of profits and then median P&Ls for these strategies peaked at around a 20% profit target and then fell sharply kind of beyond that

[10:29:33] point. When you got to a 40% profit target that's when kind of the statistics across the board became much less favorable. Um, but what was interesting that I especially found here is that the call and the put side were

[10:29:46] basically even in terms of how often they contributed to those profitable profit targets were more likely to benefit from sort of fluctuations in IV um compared to higher profit targets.

[10:30:00] again obviously the study is about spy if this were individual names you would these data. >> Oh yeah. And then you know especially if it's around earnings especially if it's you know all these other you know all

[10:30:13] these other corporate events um kind of why we use spy and it's also a little bit longer dated than you would cons you know consider using uh for this type of just because of how we modeled these back tests. If you had a 5D strategy if

[10:30:29] we're taking one data point per day that doesn't leave that's where kind of the intraday variability would sort of like skew the results. Um, so here we're looking at 10DTE, but that might even be a little bit longterm uh for someone

[10:30:42] who's kind of buying options. So, little caveat there. >> Yeah. And I think, uh, you know, we there again, there's a time and a place for long options. You get what you pay for with long options. The further out

[10:30:55] in time you go, the more time value you're buying, the less IV value that can, you know, work against you in that same sense. And I think for me, like if I'm just straight up buying calls without any kind of cost basis

[10:31:07] reduction, it's going to be in price extreme scenarios. Like we have leaps in Nike, like he's at 12-ear lows, and it's a $500 debit for it to go up a a third of where it's fallen from, and we can double or triple our money there. But

[10:31:21] also, if you see the S&P's down 20%, 30%. We know the data says if you look at that point in time 6 months out, one year out, three years out, the percentage that we're higher from that level is in the 90s, high 90 percentile.

[10:31:35] and then you pair it with an asymmetric trade like that and you plan to take it off with a 10 to 20 30% profit, you're going to have a high probability trade. be a different story because you lose all that extrinsic value. So it's all

[10:31:51] it's all about that, you know, manipulating the liabilities against you by utilizing mechanics that can offset it. tool in your toolbox. But the idea around kind of strategic and sustainable

[10:32:04] trading is really like sizing positions and overall exposures according to the probabilities of profit of the trade. Um, and then you know just kind of like your sense of market conditions certainly play a part of that. But the

[10:32:18] really meant to be driving a lot of that sort of broad strate strategic decision- making I guess I should say >> 100%. Uh what if what have you been trading these days? Uh are you are you in the the zero day stuff? Are you

[10:32:32] looking for more long-term? I know you mentioned Johnson and Johnson. I like looking at biotech stocks because they or biotech healthcare stocks especially like these days they've been kind of like having like very noticeable

[10:32:45] watch but I'm not trading a lot of those names right now. I'm kind of holding what am I holding? Ion Q right now uh which I just wanted a little bit of names. This one's been letting me down though. Um and then yeah honestly a lot

[10:33:00] of neutral strategies just with the chop we've been seeing in the market. So now I'm trying to just kind of stay I don't know levelheaded about it. But like we've been kind of flat since June in the S&P

[10:33:12] NASDAQ looking over here >> pretty flat. >> Yeah, I know. So I've been my neutral strategies. I love I hate making directional assumptions because I'm wrong I feel most of the time.

[10:33:24] >> Um so I Yep. The neutral strategies actually threw something on in gold as well which it looks like it's having a bit bit of a chop today. Yeah, it is. >> But this is another one that's been kind of a little tending towards the

[10:33:37] downside, but kind of honestly sideways since like I mean I'm looking at June. Yeah. >> Yeah. It's been somewhere between 4,000 and 4,200. And um I'm trying to play that range. I wanted it dropped below

[10:33:50] that range. I wanted it dropped below 4,000 yesterday, two days ago. I I did not buy it. I should have, but I was trying to buy the next contract, not the I'm not going to bore you with my problem sides. I sold the call spread.

[10:34:02] I'm still waiting for it to drop back down so I can buy the um the not the Q down so I can buy the um the not the Q contract, but the uh U contract probably >> right? Probably >> gold. Yeah, like those futures options

[10:34:17] options. No, I was like trading the ETFs, but I liked the futures options have a random 50 point day and then it would >> contract they >> Yeah, the V contract is uh two weeks

[10:34:32] from now we'll switch we'll swap over from the Q to the V. >> They just skip right over you. Interesting. Gold is so different, bro. futures markets. >> They really do.

[10:34:44] organization of the Chase platform. You can see where all these options expirations roll up into the 4069 last price, which is the Q contract as listed here. And then uh 14 days from now, July

[10:34:57] 29th, we will swap over to the V contract. You'll see a new last price. And now all of these subsequent options expirations roll up into the V contract. trading futures options, you can see exactly which which contract the futures

[10:35:11] options roll up to. Uh and that applies to all the futures that we have here. basically kind of done like a uh cattle call. Is that what you call it? I don't know. When you guys have allowed the uh the people to reach out to you, uh the

[10:35:24] ideas. How's that been going? Like I all of us, but you guys are getting interesting ideas on things that people want to see. Is there anything?

[10:35:36] >> I mean, this study today was inspired by a YouTube comment. So some it was the reading through the comments. Someone's like, "You should test that for long strategies." and I'm like this was my kind of adaptation of that. Um I I will

[10:35:49] say that like I think that the most the way that I enjoy engaging with people finance photon over on Twitter, but dropping like study ideas, questions. whenever we have like a study, we'll post like a long form article. So that's

[10:36:03] a great place to like ask questions as well, suggest other ideas. But you know, I love some new ideas. >> You're a former physics person. And you want to explain to the people where that name finance photon came from?

[10:36:16] >> Finance a physics. Yeah. No, I did uh photonics in undergrad and in grad eight hours a day, but a photon a photon is a nice little corpuscule of light. And so I thought finance and photon would be a fun play on that.

[10:36:30] hours a day. It seems like it fits right in for what she wears on a day-to-day [laughter] >> That's I've never seen the sun. So, >> hey, it's it is it's it's just, you know, the way of life, right?

[10:36:45] >> I actually like this shirt. I have five of these shirts now. >> You know what? I almost wore a white t-shirt and I was like, we're be >> Let's try it. And it would have been it would have been awesome.

[10:36:58] >> Uh Julia, appreciate your time as always. Good to see you guys. And yeah, finance photon, reach out to to Julia on Twitter if you have any ideas for segments and uh anything under the sun. But yeah, E- Minis up 17, NASDAQ down

[10:37:16] 170. A massive divergence here. This is recently. Uh we've seen this before, of course, and this is why, you know, correlation is not perfect, but uh we've got another guest on the line, Dr. Jim.

[10:37:29] almost wore my Boston Red Sox t-shirt. Wow. And this. >> No, man. It's never too much. Hottest team in baseball, man. I've been telling y'all from the very beginning. I never

[10:37:41] lost hope. I never lost hope. Hottest team in baseball. The second half starts uh is it tomorrow or is it Friday? >> Uh Thursday might be tomorrow. No, I >> Oh, it is tomorrow. Okay. >> I believe is it Friday? Oh, okay. It is

[10:37:53] >> Look at Ben coming up clutch. It's Friday. Yeah. Okay. So, uh yeah. So, we know, we'll see if we can keep it going there, Mike. You know, it's our Boston Red Sox now. Like, we welcome you aboard with open arms.

[10:38:06] >> Hey, we'll take it. Do we Do are there any uh of our Boston Red Sox in the home >> Well, no, it already happened. Yeah. Wilson Contrus almost happened on >> I know. I know. It happened kind of quick. It was on Netflix. It's funny. I

[10:38:20] and they were complaining about that, but um Yeah, happened the other day. I >> That's wild. >> I know. Wilson Gatus was in it. Boston. >> He almost won it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. He

[10:38:33] almost won it. I mean, I'm seeing him with the Red. I keep thinking he's with Boston, though. >> No, man. He's with our Boston Red Sox. >> He almost won it. What do you mean? He wasn't one of the last two people. You

[10:38:47] >> No, I think he was. Wasn't it him and Schworber at the end? >> No, no, it was Schwarber and the the dude from uh the St. Louis, Jordan right. That's right. >> Nice try, though. Nice try.

[10:38:59] getting a little bit pushing, right? >> This [laughter] is the beauty of family. >> Hey, we got to manage those winners when we get them. Like, we can't wait for the market to turn around. I mean, look at this morning. It's a perfect example.

[10:39:11] >> I still love Wilson from the Cubs days. I I do. >> Mhm. >> Yeah. And and Shorber [laughter] >> Yeah. Kind of like your uh Yeah. your

[10:39:26] Carrie Woods, you know, your Mark uh Mark Prior, right? There you go. Yeah. >> Way back. All right, guys. Let's do it. Ben, ceue us up here on the title slide. dynamic delta with ratio spreads this morning. So, I thought this would be a

[10:39:42] talked about yesterday, talking about short puts and the greatness of the you can do with the short put with short Vega positive theta. We talked about strangles. We talked about other things and we kind of alluded to ratio spreads.

[10:39:56] kind of dive into ratio spreads for just a couple of minutes and kind of highlight just how dynamic the delta is with these strategies. Now, when it comes to a ratio spread, Mike, I've

[10:40:09] heard you say this before. They're omnidirectional in their nature. So, please explain to everybody what that means. >> Oh, man. Uh so omnidirectional just means you can make money in a myriad of

[10:40:23] different ways. If you route a ratio spread for a credit, you can make money if all options expire worthless. You can make money on a rally, but your max profit is actually if that spread moves in the money. So I think the uh the

[10:40:37] trouble is if you are asking the question like what what is this a bullish strategy? Like is this does this have positive delta? Does it mean it's a bullish strategy? I kind of am am in the camp of if you have a put ratio spread.

[10:40:50] It's more of a bearish strategy than a bullish strategy. Uh but that also front, right? Like you can make a you can have a put ratio that's narrow where you're collecting a bigger credit or a put ratio that's wider where you're

[10:41:04] case the latter is much more of a bearish trade than the bullish counterpart. But yeah, I I like to plead the fifth on this question. uh because Some people say, "Oh, it's a positive delta, so it's absolutely bullish." But

[10:41:19] even though the max profits to the downside and a put ratio in this example. So, what do you think? >> Yeah. You know, I mean, I mean, I really think that you nailed it. I really think that in terms of kind of outlining what

[10:41:32] yourself into, you know, the thing about gimmies and gotchas. It's always gimmies and gotchas. The flexibility and the versatility with the ratio spread is second to none. It is unmatched because

[10:41:44] you can make money in a myriad of ways. You can make money higher. You can make money lower. You can make more money if it goes lower. And then obviously your risk is to kind of that extreme downside or if it gets beyond that short put

[10:41:56] strike. And so the flexibility is unmatched. But that flexibility comes with a level of complexity that you really have to make sure that you know know what you've signed up for. and you have the skills and abilities necessary

[10:42:10] to adjust that guy when it's time to adjust that guy in terms of, you know, closer to expiration. I mean, there's a number of things that are happening. And so, I don't really like when I put on a ratio spread, a put ratio spread

[10:42:22] specifically. I probably think about it more from a bullish sense. I probably think about it more as a bullish strategy, but there are other times. I mean, it's like 5545, right, Mike? I know you're a you're you're a poker guy.

[10:42:35] I mean, this is pocket twos against ace king offsuit, right? It's basically 5248. It's not really, you know, a big difference. But when I think about the bullishness, I mean, that's how I go into it at trade entry. But sometimes I

[10:42:48] might use a ratio spread as a hedge. Like I might use this as a downside hedge. Like I'm using that extra put to kind of finance the whole operation, but I'm actually trying to set, you know, some booby traps down below where the

[10:43:00] fall down there, I actually end up in a good spot. I love that you said booby good spot. I love that you said booby traps. That's all I heard. [laughter]

[10:43:13] think it's uh it is certainly pocket twos against ace king offsuit. Uh 50/50 split, but yeah, I think it's uh it depends on the setup, right? Like this setup. I would say you're you're collecting 500 bucks, which is still

[10:43:28] great. You have neutral and upside premium. You make all that money, but 15K if you get the selloff. So, you want a selloff here. However, if you slide like I was saying earlier, now all of a sudden, uh, you've got way more credit

[10:43:44] received up front. Your max profit isn't nearly as much. It's cut in half to the downside. Your break even improvement to the downside is not nearly as much. So, yeah, this is more neutral to bullish. So, yeah, I think it depends on the

[10:43:56] setup and the use case for sure. But the beauty of these strategies is regardless of them, yes, over time if you get the sell off, you can make a lot of money on literally just a long put spread that you're financing completely by selling

[10:44:10] an extra put. So if you can think about it that way, if that uh rings the light bulb for you, but yeah, if you get the downside move, you have a way lower cost basis. You could uh manipulate and manage this, which which I'm sure we'll

[10:44:23] talk about in a second here. But another thing is this could be converted to a 100 point rally in the e- minis, you can probably buy the equidistant leg. And as your credit received, you now have a free shot to the downside. And there's

[10:44:37] your there's your actual full hedge with no no monetary risk. Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. So if we think about delta changes over time, so there's two main addition to all the bonus points we've already hit on in the first four or five

[10:44:52] minutes. So number one, the dynamic nature of a ratio spread in terms of adjustments you can make, that's second to none. But just from a delta change over time standpoint, it's a very unique strategy because if you do a put ratio

[10:45:06] strike selection in terms of, you know, how big the profit potential is going to be, but generally speaking, your net position delta on entry will be positive. So that will be a bullish position at least temporarily. But

[10:45:19] here's what's crazy. If time goes by and nothing else changes. So the classic cedaris parabus assumption all other things may equal which we know is never ever ever true. But it does help us to understand one specific variable and how

[10:45:34] that might be impacting what I'm looking at. When time goes by the delta alone is going to slowly shift to become more and more bearish. And the reason why is because as time goes by, those shortput deltas, they're not going to dominate as

[10:45:50] much as they were at the beginning of the strategy. At a certain point, it flips over and the long put deltas actually dominate the strategy now, making it a bearish play. And so this kind of, you know, it's one of those

[10:46:03] situations where, you know, we're both correct. You know, both answers are can definitely classify this as a bullish strategy. But if nothing else changes and you actually flip your directional bias completely, which is

[10:46:17] the case here, you have to take that into account on entry, you have to understand that at some point this is very likely going to become a bearish strategy. And what am I going to do? How am I going to handle that? Obviously,

[10:46:29] you know, is that what I want? I mean with a 1 by2 ratio spread often times it is but you need to understand what you're kind of walking into because this is how the the position delta is going to change just from the passage of time

[10:46:42] >> 100%. And as everything does it all comes back to exttrinsic value. I think that's another way to look at it. If you set up a put ratio at the money where the money and you're selling two out of the money to finance it over time. If we

[10:46:57] show this visually with the analysis tab. Uh over time, this is the theorograph where you like Jim's saying, you got this bullish lean, but over time short puts. You gain, you gain, you gain. Your long put holds on to value

[10:47:11] and that's where you get this uh fill up where now all of a sudden you want the market to go down. Uh and that's going to be reflected in your delta. Your long option is going to be basically 50 delta the whole time this is on. But these

[10:47:24] of the money options will always go to zero delta first because they will lose their exttrinsic value first. And that's how this shifts from a bullish slightly bullish trade to a certainly bearish trade if nothing else changes in the

[10:47:38] >> That's exactly right. That's 100% right. And just to let you guys know, so I'm just going to nip the bud. We're going to skip right to the end. The going to be it always comes down to exttrinsic value. Hey,

[10:47:51] won't even need a slide, I don't think. We're just going to go off of that title slide and just wax poetic because we know that's the answer. >> There it is. Okay, so let's go to the next slide. So Ben, one more slide. So

[10:48:04] when you set up a ratio spread, remember there's a couple different ways you classic 1x two. That's obviously a standard approach, but you could also go a 1x3 if you want to lean more bullish and you want to hold on to those bullish

[10:48:17] deltas longer into the actual position over its life. A 1x3 could work. A 2x5 could work. There's a number of ways that you slice this up, moving from the 1x two standard. Uh or you could go 2x3. You could go 2x3. You could go 3x5 if

[10:48:32] you actually want to kind of overload the downside to actually give you more profit potential if the movement is lower. whether it's a hedge or whether it's just a kind of a standard trade, how you set up the ratio spread in terms

[10:48:45] of the balance or unbalanced nature of the longs versus puts, that's just another level, another layer, a second derivative of flexibility, if you will, when it comes to a ratio spread. It really is unmatched in my opinion.

[10:48:59] >> Yeah, I agree. And I like the idea of of even just in a simple 1 by two, I think one of great exercises to do is just understanding your break evens and look at that math and figure that out. That's that's really a great thing to

[10:49:11] >> Yeah, that is so true. That is 100% true. Mike. >> I said they give me the give me gotcha. If you sell an extra put and you do a 1x3, you have way more upside max profit

[10:49:23] because you're selling another put, but your break even will be uh it'll move up because now you have three two extra short puts that are not hedged by your long put that you're buying. >> That's exact that's a great point. And

[10:49:36] often times when people do do a ratio spread, they're doing it for the wider it relative to like just a standalone short put, which I think a lot of put or do I want to maybe ratio this guy off? Understand that the ratio spread is

[10:49:50] but it's almost always going to give you a wider break even than a standalone short put. But if you do start layering up on those extra puts to improve the bullish scenario, you are foregoing some of that break even point with

[10:50:04] Yep. All right, let's get him a few takeaways and we'll get them on to the next piece. So, short premium strategies possess unique characteristics that cannot be found with simple stock or mutual funds. Case in point, how the

[10:50:16] directional bias of a strategy can flip from being bullish to being bearish simply from the passage of time, a phenomenon that is easily illustrated phenomenon that is easily illustrated with the put ratio spread.

[10:50:29] Perfect. Perfect. Couldn't have said it better if you haven't already. I mean, it's a an easy way to visualize everything and you can pass time, you can change applied volatility and uh give yourself

[10:50:43] applied volatility and uh give yourself that uh full holistic view. But Dr. Jim, >> as always. >> And I'm very much looking forward to the extrinsic values, everything. >> I know, right? They all compound. I love

[10:50:55] it. I love it. >> Yeah. Uh NASDAQ continues to slide here. because you got the E- Minis, the Dow, the Russell, Bitcoin, Ethereum, bunch of currencies. Everything on the screen is green except for the NASDAQ. Uh, and

[10:51:10] crude oil is actually just ticked red a little bit here. Natty Gas on the other side is is green a little bit. So, yeah, kind of an an interesting day. Like I where literally when you look at the CME futures watch list in the default

[10:51:24] sorting where you've got E- Minis, NASDAQ, Dow, Russell, everything's green except for the NASDAQ. >> Yeah, it is. It's um what that's uh a seven almost8% difference um between the two. We I

[10:51:38] don't know the last time we've seen that divergence. And it's not like there was um that I can recall. I mean we do so many things I halfway forget but it's not like we had some big you know um discuss uh sort of news before the open

[10:51:51] down. It's just mostly what I'm seeing is it's Micron. It's AMD by the way. I just put on some uh call call butterflies in Micron and in SanDisk. We're going to try that game again uh for Friday. But it's um it is some

[10:52:06] select tech that's down. And as a result, it's almost like as a result of those being down, we got the rotation effect in effect. Microsoft is up. Um we

[10:52:18] got uh you know, some of the uh consumer defensive names that are positive. I I've actually been in here. I mean, I got a bunch of things going on. So, out Target. Um, so we'll get to that in a little bit of different trades that

[10:52:30] I've done, but it's a little bit of interesting bifurcation here. channel. We're going to uh pop over there and and get your questions while we're still on and we'll walk through all the positions we've uh put

[10:52:44] on today. So, we'll see you on the other side of the break.

[10:52:59] going. I make $4.97 every second that I work. And if I don't going to go crazy. >> Okay. [laughter] >> It's a cute dress. Where'd you get it? >> Oh, thank you. H&M

[10:53:11] >> That's pretty good. >> Probably not worth more than $4. No, things. Everything has value. >> Well, not everything has value. >> I am pretty sure I can name a couple of things that don't have value.

[10:53:23] >> Okay. U caution. >> Five cents. feebleness. >> I have a toughy for you. >> All right. >> Me and you? >> Yeah. Did we have a price?

[10:53:36] >> Yeah. >> Two cents. We should have [snorts] sold >> Yeah, we could have made a lot of money on that one. Oops. street. >> Exactly. I think that's more on you than

[10:53:52] it is on me. Lord knows I'm trying. Hey, you know everywhere. Take you for instance. Look at you. You're a young buck. What are you like 37? >> I'm joking. [laughter] How old are you?

[10:54:05] >> With your genetic makeup, you know, you're not putting on too much weight. I eggs of yours and make quite a profit online. But I wouldn't wait too long. time. Especially if they keep eating the way you're eating.

[10:54:20] >> I got to take off. H. Time is money. >> Are you serious? >> Yeah. Hey, look. Can you get the check on this? I left my wallet in the car. I don't like to carry around bulky things. It slows me down.

[10:54:34] around bulky things. It slows me down. [bell]

[10:54:49] the show. We got about 5 minutes left here. We'll do a rapid fire uh review of what we've done today. It's been a busy morning. Uh as you can see on the Tasty bunch of these trades already. Did some S&P zero day trades, one day trades,

[10:55:04] quick in and quick out. Uh Jamal got some UNH call calendar spreads. I followed him into these. These are exactly the same ones. 450 and 440 long the 9-day short the 2-day. Just reducing basis and taking some upside shots here

[10:55:17] with UNH trading about 20 30 points lower. Uh, but you also put on some new >> I did. I um I looked at these the other day doing some call calendars. I did some of these a couple of weeks ago. Um

[10:55:30] We'll see what happens. I mean, Asandis was literally just at 1,800. I think it was yesterday morning maybe. Who knows? We'll see what happens. Uh similar deal We'll see what happens. Uh similar deal with uh with uh Micron at a thousand.

[10:55:42] there. But um and then there was another one I think I haven't posted yet. just remembering to do a target uh call call uh diagonal that I had on closed that for a $500 gain. That was a nice little

[10:55:55] because I have so much tech and I've been seeing that rotation. So, I got long deltas in there. Um and so the days where tech has mostly semis, I should say, has been down. We've seen those names have been up and so this trade

[10:56:09] >> Yeah, that's a great one. And yeah, that was a long September 125 call short the 145 in August. Uh 20 points wide. So those wide ones can really fill up, especially in Target. If Target has had pretty low implied volatility, which I

[10:56:24] think is a a green sign, a green shoot if you're trying to do these debit trades. Like Target has had a crazy rally and sell-off, too. like from uh a year ago we were trading at 150 dropped all the way sub 100 and then uh late

[10:56:40] last year sitting at 80 and even this year like just a couple months ago we're year like just a couple months ago we're sitting at 120 110 and now we're at 140. So this these rallies that we've seen don't really aren't really reflected in

[10:56:52] this low implied volatility uh I would say. So that leans us towards those debit trades, the diagonal spreads, long September, short August. Uh, and that >> And because it's long se August, I actually could have held it more, but

[10:57:05] this is a big move here. I mean, I bought it for, again, we always look to the the strikes. I got it for even less than that. I mean, $700 and change. $500 if you're interested in that type of trade, I just noticed this. It's funny.

[10:57:20] Somebody's tweeted about TJX, which is another one of these names, these u I mean this is also in the similar space. And look, I looked at Target. I saw the to do it. TJX is in that similar spot. I mean, that's one where you could do

[10:57:33] right now the SE August. You could buy the SE 150 and sell the August 165 and pay $6.33. I mean, that's less than half the width of the strikes. So, those are

[10:57:45] this. I'm going to buy >> 625. I just got price proof. So >> route that route that lower >> probably because the short option has a somewhat wide bass spread, but >> yeah, I mean that's that's another

[10:58:00] the nice trades you can find. I mean, of course there's still plenty of risk in these, but low IV plus price extreme. Uh you have a lot of opportunity there, especially with a wide diagonal spread. That one was uh a 15 point wide diagonal

[10:58:16] >> you got less than, you know, you got you got a lot of time there. And again, it's than half of that width. >> Yeah, those are the setups I think that that have a lot of upside profit potential. Uh and you can do these to

[10:58:30] I think it's a >> really intelligent way to go about it just because you know that these single name equities can move around like crazy. Uh and you still have a really strong return on capital here,

[10:58:44] short premium is of course a higher probability trade, but if I sell the 145 put uh and I'm kind of iffy on TJX, like I can replace that profit potential with that diagonal spread. Like that diagonal

[10:58:58] spread will make more than $300 if you get a 10-point rally in TJX where this will be a $200 winner. So, uh yeah, it's just all all in the eye of the beholder depending on what you want to do. But like Jamal, I prefer to be defined risk,

[10:59:12] especially with some of these products going into earnings. Uh, and the lower the implied volatility is, the the more defined risk I would I would go. morning. Uh, we've got all of our trades posted here on the Tasty Follow page. If

[10:59:26] you want to reach out to us on Twitter, I'm at Trader Mikey B. Jamal is at Jamal Chandler. Uh, and yeah, let us know what you're thinking. We'll still be trading to the follow page. Join us on the YouTube channel if you haven't already.

[10:59:38] along the righthand side chat. But, uh, >> I think we should. It's time to do it. It's been fun. See you guys soon. second break. Liz and Chris will be on the other side of it.

[11:00:00] Whether you're a beginner or more advanced trader, our courses can empower you with the knowledge to succeed. Watch as our team in Chicago shows you how to use the Tasty Trade platform and go over the basics of trading. Perhaps you'll

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[11:01:50] increase your return, decrease your risk, or quite possibly both. Sure, you've heard of the Greeks. you know, your deltas, your thetas, your Vegas, your deltas, your thetas, your Vegas, your charms, your vamas, etc. And you're

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[11:03:53] She's Liz Dear King. I'm Chris Veio. Liz, how are you? >> You know what? It's It's a It's a beautiful day in Chicago. It's 175 [laughter] We're We're in the heat wave. Are you in

[11:04:06] >> We are. I woke up this morning and it was already 81 degrees at 6:45, which is usually not my cup of tea. >> No. Will Frell. this heat. He's black. He does not like to be in the sun. He does not like it at

[11:04:21] >> That's a [laughter] funny dog name. Uh, do you guys you guys have the wildfire >> Oh, yeah. Mhm. Yeah. Yeah. Feels like someone's painted. Everything is orange >> It's not too It's not too bad here. But I will tell you, it's not like anybody's

[11:04:35] Actually, I shouldn't say that. I'm in my pool or in the air conditioning. So, >> who knows? [laughter] >> I guess that's a fair distinction. Uh, yeah. No, we my neighbor's house is white and so I look outside. It's like,

[11:04:47] Oh, no. It's just the >> That's just the sunlight. >> It's one of those days. >> You know, you and I were uh were talking some trades yesterday on the show. Uh I think you may have handled ASML a little

[11:04:59] bit better than I did. >> Out on the open. you. I'm still in it. It's uh down a tick. We're a short put spread here just below 1700 on the strike. Um ASML had their earnings last night and it had an

[11:05:11] 8% pop earlier. So kudos to you, Liz, for moving quickly on that. Um, as for wasn't in a short dated like 2 days to expiration cycle. So I wanted to see if Um, to that point though, my short strike 1680 is still below that 50-day

[11:05:27] here today, even if >> it's come off a bit. But hey, it worked it. >> The short term it did work. But it's right? >> Yes.

[11:05:40] don't need it to go. You don't you don't have it doesn't have to go up, but it Chris, I like these setups. So, you were saying this was on your list, and then I me if I'm wrong, that Caterpillar was also on your list of the um below and

[11:05:55] >> Yes. Yeah, it it it is, but unfortunately, you know, I did put a up on the follow page, but we are starting to creek below our low from uh July 7th, which is putting us below our 50. So, I don't want to, you know, if we

[11:06:09] probably just going to lift those immediately. Then I'm not like I'm just not liking the structure then. >> Not to say that that to say like we look bouncing around the 50. So [clears throat] maybe if tomorrow's a

[11:06:21] >> reconsider, but still sitting out 37 odd days, plenty of time to go. Just >> No. Yeah, I get it. What else is on the when people I like macroeconomists who use their brain tell me what where to

[11:06:34] to around it. >> Sure. So TSM, obviously JP Morgan at new highs today. But TSM that was triggered for me today. We're still slipping a little bit here through the session. Um I'm in at the 37 days seems

[11:06:48] to be the place I like right now 400 390. Uh you know you're collecting 345 on the credit. So you're does that sway you at all with the >> Not given the earnings that we've seen from the space. Uh maybe it's going to

[11:07:02] be another one of those we pop and then drop, right? So perhaps if we do get a little bit of a rally, I may want to be quicker on the trigger to be a little bit more nimble here. Maybe that means I pull forward my expiration

[11:07:14] the names and some of the movement that we're seeing here across the board where the broadly speaking, the market is, you know, just having a having a regular day. Distribution is the name of the game so far.

[11:07:27] with you for tomorrow morning because I'm a short-termer. I'm I'm a I'm a short-term trader. I just sold the uh 405400 put spread. earlier today, but we were talking about looking buying dips in UNH as well,

[11:07:41] of a pullback. We technically got below the one month and we were still sitting above the 50. Uh we were talking on the show earlier if we could get a maybe below like 390, 380. Right now, obviously, it's a little too wide. Um

[11:07:55] you're not getting enough credit. $212 for a $10 wide strike. uh it could work, better risk-to-reward here. So, this is also on the radar for me right now, but been loved. They don't get our attention at all. They've certainly had a little

[11:08:10] recently. >> And only because I like to understand, I or wrong answer here, Chris, but I like to understand kind of trading mentality looked at UNH and you looked at TSM, but

[11:08:22] How come you don't go shorter term because of the earnings because that ball collapse you get immediate? >> Yeah. No, that's that's fair. I about that. >> Okay, that's fair enough. You want to

[11:08:35] excited this morning with the PPI? Did this make you as happy as the CPI? important. IA certainly thinks it's more important. And and maybe there's a point know, are going to be ruthless about protecting their margins. And so, if

[11:08:50] up, they're probably going to pass them along to consumers. the fact that we reading in PPI. Uh, yeah, we can talk about that being oil related. So, the core was still half of what was expected at 0.2%.

[11:09:03] at 0.2%. 0.2% annualized is a 2.2% year-over-year needs to hike into. Um, and so I think that's the biggest takeaway from the interpretation. The market's giving you is collective wisdom. Rate cut odds or

[11:09:17] rather rate hike odds have collapsed the past two sessions. We were at like a 60% chance of two hikes this year. We're now 0% chance of two hikes this year and we're actually starting to fade a little bit. We're at an 88% chance of one.

[11:09:30] >> So the pricing has really shifted in the past 24 hours around this inflation data, right? Definite one, 60% chance of two, now 0% chance of two and only an 88% chance of one. That's a that's not something you can ignore.

[11:09:43] >> I just love I I'm just fascinated by the fact that you're just you're looking at what you did. You woke up this morning and looked at what the percentage chance [laughter] >> Can I tell you the secret? Because they

[11:09:56] move in 25 basis point intervals. Every .01 on the y- axis is a 4%. So [laughter] >> I am I can multiply three times four >> Listen, I was told there'd be no math today, so that's [laughter]

[11:10:13] to confirm and send, I was looking at some of the tickers that have traders attentions today. I uh have a little tool that I like to use uh to scan the traders are trading it, then maybe we should be looking at it as well. I know

[11:10:26] it's a really crazy concept. IBM has been the number one ticker mentioned on Wall Street Bets today. Now, >> do you have anything in IBM right now? >> I don't um but there was a study that I saw yesterday. I'm going to pull that up

[11:10:39] here while you give your little shtick on on IBM, but I didn't want to catch of traders are trying to >> I guilty is charged. I did it yesterday. I jumped I jumped head first into the IBM waters yesterday. Um just because So

[11:10:53] out with something saying, "I'm just going to let you know why our earnings for a couple weeks. I think they're in two weeks. No, but I I don't know. I whenever a company comes out and says this, I I think that their their

[11:11:05] earnings are actually going to be everybody everybody is expecting bad, so I mean, this was a big move down for IBM, so I see why people are keeping an eye on it. But I I loved the down move and I actually used the down move to put

[11:11:18] something on that is kind of into earnings as well. So I did uh like a an using the earnings as the one that I'm buying. came across. It comes from uh this group Alphhatica. Uh quote, we ran a volume

[11:11:33] spike study event on IBM after today's 25% decline. 119 volume spike events over the past 5 years each day where volume exceeded twice the average. Here's what happens next. Yesterday's print in IBM was 8.3 times the normal

[11:11:46] bucket. That's five times volume tier has only been occurred or only been reached 11 times over the past 5 years. The forward returns from that bucket are one week out minus 1.55% 10 days out minus 1.68%. So when IBM historically

[11:12:02] selling does not exhaust in one day. It spiked data tells a slightly different story though across all 56 downv volume events. The 5-day forward return is plus 0.38 with a 50% win rate and at 10 days

[11:12:16] 0.38 with a 50% win rate and at 10 days it's 05% with a 55% win rate. So I say you're catching a falling knife. It was down 25% and yes the selling continues but if history is any guide here the selling doesn't get more aggressive here

[11:12:30] henceforth. You know you're maybe looking at 2% on this from 220 you're bucks. I mean maybe there is actually a reason to start bottom fishing right not the start of something bigger. >> Well, and my my general rule for myself,

[11:12:44] than me with actual numbers, is I usually like to sit on my hands for 3 too this was too good. Like I couldn't My usual rule is if something falls that jump in. I did not. I jumped in yesterday only because of the way only

[11:13:00] They were talking about their They're talking their book. They're saying in three weeks. I think it's going to be I think it's going to go up on earnings. a really bad set of data, wouldn't have been released on a Friday afternoon

[11:13:13] after the market close. >> Yep. Right. We talked about that today, too. >> Maybe they're just uh playing the referees here a little bit, which is not something that is unheard

[11:13:25] of. Okay. Uh >> but I mean, the stock market is a game, this company is playing a game. They have to give they have to give earnings. it's going to be bad. This was not a bad move on their part. No, you have to

[11:13:37] massage. Uh yeah, you have to you have to play the referees, right? And so if themselves, if the numbers are better than what came out, the stock gets back management's probably going to be thrilled with that after the recent

[11:13:50] >> That's the that's the game that management's playing here, trying to make sure that they stay employed. That is one of the incentive structures. So too? And I know we got to get to the slides, but is it today? It is today.

[11:14:02] number one trending ticker on Wall Street bets. like to be in the game where everybody's talking about it. So, this is good. I'm >> Right. You got to play where people are playing. And also, if you know a lot of

[11:14:14] in and out. Yeah. So, not not for nothing. One of the reasons why we look here. As always, you can send your questions to researchtastylive.com. researchtastylive.com or put them in the chat, which I suppose is a good

[11:14:28] reminder. Put questions in the chat. Like and subscribe for more videos. Uh Liz, let's get into this uh first confirm and send here. Uh >> this is for you. I know it. If I can see CPI and PBI in the first. [laughter]

[11:14:43] tickers, it's probably for me. >> Okay. CPI and PPI both came in cool and >> Okay. CPI and PPI both came in cool and July hike odds collapsed from 42 to 17 in two days. IV usually deflates when a macro overhang clears. Did the

[11:14:56] opportunity to sell that elevated premium already pass or is it is it the next catalyst? What is the next catalyst by the way? >> Okay. >> So this is the reporting week which

[11:15:10] means one two three August 7th we get the next non-farm payrolls report. >> Um between now and then it's really just earnings are going to be the big catalyst. Uh I suppose then you could actually talk about the Fed meeting. You

[11:15:22] important catalyst these days. Right. >> Sure. Uh the next Fed meeting is in 14 days, two weeks from today on July 29th. So that's probably the next big one. one of the catalysts that we were going to lose between now and then is the uh

[11:15:35] the Federal Reserve's ability to talk to us. So we're going into the Fed's communication blackout window shortly in just a few days time, the week leading Saturday, the 18th, they shut up until the 29th. Um so when you talk about like

[11:15:48] what catalysts are there for this related we'll call it rate hike risk market I don't see many that are coming up quite frankly and then if you take a here there has been a collapse in volatility uh IVRs in ZN for example

[11:16:04] they're back into the teens they've been cut in half so you know am I trading bonds or notes right now on the basis of uh a repricing of premium around data

[11:16:16] like CP PI and PPI. No, that does not seem to be in the cards. What I am doing though is that because there's been a collapse in volatility, uh TP got me into this long at the money put spread, which considering how weak inflation was

[11:16:29] relative to expectations and the fact that these rate cut odds have come down, I'm more than happy to continue leaning short here uh 112 111 even if the profit is coming in a little bit here today. And part of that is we listen, how many

[11:16:43] the Fed doesn't cut rates and then the yield curve steepens me, and then the yield curve steepens. Why? Looser monetary policy for longer. So, I'm happy to lean short a little bit uh delta here right now in notes and

[11:16:56] related to premium or volatility. >> But do not let TP corrupt you. >> Do not [laughter] I've worked with TP for a very long >> He's like, Chris, why are you even looking beyond one DTE?

[11:17:10] It sounds very much like a very much >> I just my brain just doesn't I would love I would love to be that kind of >> No, >> we're all evolving.

[11:17:22] >> Yeah. I don't know if it's evolving or not or or going backwards in time because it is a very instant grat. It is might be it might be unevolving because we're more instant gratification like the teenagers when you go to the zero

[11:17:34] >> Yeah, that's that's true. The attention span is so bad. Okay, we can go to the next question. Netflix reports after the close tomorrow. Uh down 40% over the past year and coming off of a 29% price hike. If you wanted to position before

[11:17:49] before the close tomorrow or wait? And what structure actually makes sense on a name with this big of a move priced in? I see 130% raw IV here with a 94 IVR.

[11:18:02] >> Okay, I'm just going to answer the part of their question first. So, it depends planning on an IV collapse, you're going to want to wait until as close to the close tomorrow as possible. So, if they report after the close tomorrow, you you

[11:18:14] trades on would be during last call, which I know you're on. So, if you're directional bias, the best time to place earnings before the announcement, 30 minutes before. Because if you're

[11:18:26] collapse, that you're you're giving yourselves the best footing. That's the time when you will truly be neutral. If you put on a neutral strategy right now could be directional by chance, not by choice. So, I just want to put that out

[11:18:39] there. Um, and then the IV collapse is, if you wanted to play this Netflix, I mean, I would just be selling strangle in it. It's only a $74 product. >> It's only Yes, there's only a $74 product. Uh, I'm curious with this high

[11:18:53] volatility, maybe there's a chance that it pops. Would you do something like a call butterfly around strikes that have significant open interest? I'm looking at at the $80 call here. There's 400 and uh 41,000 a little over 41,000 contracts

[11:19:07] to do something like this to take advantage of the high volatility in case >> You absolutely could. I mean, butterflies and calendars, butterflies, calendars, and diagonals all have a kind of a similar setup. Sometimes I prefer a

[11:19:19] diagonal over a butterfly only because you still have the extra time on your butterfly, what do you want? You want it to go 280 and land right there, right? open up at the end and that will pay you. So if you did the 80 calendar, so

[11:19:33] bought it in like the 10day, you're going to pay less and it's that same through it. They're they they have a very very very um uh like strong butterfly. I like the I like the calendar. They're that's a

[11:19:48] non-commitment trade. You're paying 15 cents for the shot of making 200 bucks. >> Two versus the nine day. So you're short the uh 80 call at two and long the 80 >> you're pay you're going to pay 31 cents but the only reason I I will lean

[11:20:02] they are the same trade. So do I like your butterfly idea? Yes because a the same trade and the fact that we both want the same thing. You want it to go do something like this because then I've got I've got a shot in my small brain.

[11:20:16] It makes me feel better knowing that I've got nine days. If Netflix if Netflix rises like a phoenix from the ashes I've got more profit potential. I hear you. I like my call, butterfly. >> Yeah, they're the same. They're the

[11:20:28] So, I'm putting a gold star on your uh Netflix butterfly. Well, >> there we go. So, uh long the 78 and 82. Short the 80 two short the 80 here. Uh two times short the 80 here to get our

[11:20:41] butterfly in place. Risking 13 bucks for a potential max profit of 187. So, look, pops, who knows if it's going to pop. I am more than risk willing to risk $13 rallies. And I'm choosing again the strike selection is what's important to

[11:20:56] going to look to a place where it could get pinned and that's where there's lot of trading volume. >> You that that pin has got the open expected move for the cycle. So, you're that's a pretty high pop trade. 14

[11:21:09] >> We'll see what happens. Hey, let's go on to the next uh confirm and send sent. asked, but we arrived at a interesting conclusion. All right. Uh I keep hearing is the IV crush, not the direction. But if the stock moves more than the

[11:21:24] expected move, the crush does not save me. True. Is there a structure that damage from a big move? >> Defined risk. Iron counter. I mean that that will that will limit your risk from a massive move. Do you define your risk?

[11:21:38] the IV crush. You go to the expected of an iron condor as you want. That will still participate in the IV crush. Now, big, but you won't lose nearly as much as if it were, you know, a two standard

[11:21:52] move. Defined risk is the only way to protect yourself, the platform, uh 2DTE and uh Netflix right now, uh you'd be going around the 81 82 or the 6667. So, I'm going $2 wide here just for the sake of this because I

[11:22:07] right now. It is basically a 2 to1 risking two to make one at a 65% probability of profit. That's decent. There is a way to play this. You're not here, but it's it's a better setup than I've seen in some games recently. Like

[11:22:21] the other day, it was risking like four to make one. >> And I didn't even walk away with that. So, um this this is a you know >> Not bad. >> This this allows you to participate in

[11:22:35] not advocating this for you, Chris, but if somebody wanted to, they can widen or as little risk as they want. So they can take more profit potential by wanted to. It will still protect you from a blacks one event. So if it's a

[11:22:48] only are going to lose what whatever like the $300 that your max loss is here. So you can make you can you can make it retrofit into your risk risk. But I I agree with you, Chris. Sometimes it doesn't set up. You have

[11:23:01] I used to say on the show there's a common sense slide. I'm not gonna do this if I'm collecting 20 cents. >> Yeah. Sometimes it has, you know, the >> Yeah. >> Uh Liz, we got one more question and

[11:23:14] which are they showing signs of rebound here a little bit. >> No, NASDAQ is almost down a percent here. Uh and S&P back to flat on the day, but crypto's still higher >> and oil's down. I mean, try to get me

[11:23:29] crypto is up and [laughter] oil's down and rate high gods are down and yields are down. I mean, 572,000 contracts traded today. Liz, I volumes. They are getting lighter as the week goes on.

[11:23:45] Uh, one more question here though. When I put on an iron condor, I always too tight and the risk is bad too wide and I'm trying I'm tying up buying power for nothing. Is there a method for setting winid or is it just personal

[11:23:58] >> I do think I think it's a third of the width of the strikes. I think you start and adjust from there. That's kind of where I've always that's an old school we were taught because that is the pro the inverse probability of a trade. So

[11:24:11] I'll start at a third meaning. So if you know you got $2, if you've got $2 wide, Chris, that 60 cents makes perfect sense. You know, 60 cents and then go from there. If you can make it wider, if you can make it wider and feel

[11:24:25] comfortable with the risk, great. But I will say play with either making it wider. Say you wanted to take more risk. Sometimes you don't want to do the multiple. Like I'd rather do a one lot of a wider than a two lot of a narrower.

[11:24:38] >> Absolutely. Yeah, I'm absolutely with you. I depends, right? Wing width to me violently the market's moving. Um how much compensation you're going to get and then right the the payout. So here your $2 wide you mentioned 61 cents.

[11:24:52] perfect one, but it's in the ballpark. >> So I consider if it was like 40 cents, it's not close enough. So you move on, >> And and you got to see too. So sometimes you got to bring it in so tight. So

[11:25:05] tight to get a third of the width of the strikes, meaning you're way inside the h, that doesn't make any sense either. So what I'm looking for is getting third of the width of strikes. That's my starting point. And kind of go from

[11:25:18] >> I'm with you. No difference here. And so I suppose Liz that we can move on. Let's go back to these markets real quick. 7600 here on ES. Uh I saw a question earlier. Am I still holding my MEES position that I top ticked? Yes, I am.

[11:25:32] Um we got in that on July 6th and we have really just done nothing right now. Not a great looking candlestick up here as it were. But the uh new position that incentivized by my friends Mike and Jamal. How come you're not doing more

[11:25:45] double bulls? Get into the Super Bowl, baby. Amazon is what I put on here uh to be the price is right. Um why is that? Because this is a nice little chart here where we have resistance and

[11:25:58] when we broke out and fell back into it, it became support. Boing. What are we apparently. But left shoulder, head, right shoulder. That's a bottoming right shoulder. That's a bottoming pattern. So 225 up to 250, $25 range,

[11:26:11] $25 expected move. Looking for expansion up to 275 back to the highs, please and >> let me set up your Super Bowl. So, you're in 37 days. Okay. you're in 37 days. Okay. >> Short the 230 235 long the 285 290 call

[11:26:23] >> Um, how much did this cost? >> Good. So, as long as you got a credit for it, so then it becomes a high pop make sure. Sometimes when you can set those up in 37 days, it could be a

[11:26:36] like your butterfly, you're willing to whis risk $14 on a butterfly for the becomes a high pop trade with those Super Bowls if you if you're getting a >> No, >> you're a 37day trader, Chris. I like

[11:26:50] guns. You're sticking with the sticking with the the farther out in time. >> I just I don't like the weeklies in some of these single stocks. When I'm looking out at some of these strikes here and the open interest, right? 230 235, not a

[11:27:04] interest, but the 37 day, that's the monthly and so that's where all the >> Well, and those have been around a lot longer, right? So there's they always so those those regular monthlies have been around for a lot longer than the

[11:27:17] >> Yes. So we have our book set here right now. Uh some Caterpillars, some I mean just uh where are we at right for the day? Uh so many things in the book. day? Uh so many things in the book. Google, IBIT, McDonald's still TSM,

[11:27:30] little bit. Same thing for Amazon. But I, you know, low volatility, low trading volume, earnings have been good. The Fed is looking like it's less likely to hike. This is all just window dressing as far as I'm concerned for the stuff

[11:27:43] that's down. Uh and so we continue to buy the dips as it were for the time >> I think so too. So and looking at this market, we've kind of been all over the Mike, the VIX was dipping a toe. It was about to dip into the 15 handle. Now

[11:27:57] it's at 1616. So the VIX is right there. We've kind of pulled back from our of the day is going to bring, Chris? >> Nothing. think that we're probably just going to get Oh, I'm you know because the market

[11:28:09] doesn't want to get away from 7,600 in MEES. Um what do the zero DTE look like for short iron condor position in SPX? >> So I was going to say I keep an eye on the volume in the S&P and the number one on the board was 7600 all day which is

[11:28:22] very high when you think about it. 7600 had had a 10 delta earlier. It's a number one contract on the board and it just got taken over in the call side by just got taken over in the call side by the by the 75 7580. So now the 7580 is

[11:28:34] do feel like there's a gravitational pull. I talk about this quite a bit to to what you were saying about IBM when the traders are trading it when it is the hot topic it kind of pulls there because there's buyers and sellers in in

[11:28:48] both of that in that area. Then >> this is a tape that's probably going to be sensitive to uh any tweets or any of those remarks throughout the course of catalyst here >> henceforth. I'm not loving this short

[11:29:01] iron condor setup right now here in SPX. You talk about going a third of the wide. So 115. Uh I don't think so. Not for me. I have enough going on here, Liz, today. Maybe other other folks are interested in

[11:29:14] Liz. It's always a pleasure having these 30 minutes with you every single Research attastylive.com. research tastilyive.com or you can put them in the chat on YouTube where you should be liking and subscribing by now. Make sure

[11:29:27] taking a brief break here though on Tasty Live. When we come back, we're live from the SIBO bus and Errol here on the show.

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[11:32:29] again at the SIBO right now as we're seeing a pretty massive divergence in tour to market, talk about some position management, let us know what you're trading. Before we get into it, brother Gus, how we doing today? How we feeling?

[11:32:42] great point to open on. You want a market that's that's hard to make sense of. Uh we we got one today. I don't know what's going on either. And I'll tell you what, it's even weirder because as I actually look into my portfolio, I have

[11:32:54] major NASDAQ names like Meta at the top of that list at the top of my portfolio performing today. NASDAQ is down as a whole. It's diverging from the S&P 500. Yeah, we have a really interesting set of things to unpack here.

[11:33:07] >> Yeah, we really do. Uh, and again, uh, I mean, seeing the divergence, it's it's Again, I know earlier this morning with Mike and Jamal, I was pointing out how They give me a little bit of of a funny look because I quote the market in

[11:33:22] market's up like 15 handles right now." I'm like, "Oh, wow. There is a pretty mean, I don't know if that's sector rotation. I I mean, I don't I really our positions accordingly and uh, we'll go from there.

[11:33:35] morning when I was on with Mike and Jamal this morning I I highlighted that [laughter] uh you know ASML had a nice earnings report jumped up 3% on the open. It was pulling all the chip names up right behind it. PayPal flew up 19%

[11:33:48] Stripe. >> Also more on that later but I was about to say what yeah PayPal got a buyout offer from Stripe jumps up 19%. So you know two NASDAQ names leading the headlines for today with growth and then

[11:34:00] aggregate. It's a it's a very interesting day. quick tour to market. Uh let's see where volatility is at right now. Let's see see, I have the micro Nasdaq pulled up on the screen. We're down about 1445

[11:34:14] points, give or take down overall on the day so far today. It's interesting, too, overnight. You can kind of see this rally all the way to the highs of near 30,000 and then to see such an aggressive selloff um I I guess I can't

[11:34:27] comfortable and have been used to being in such a volatile market. Uh but with that being said, if we go over here to the S&P 500, you can see that we're up 14 handles on the day. Um and NASDAQ is down. So again, one of the more larger

[11:34:41] divergences I think we've seen over the recent times. Um and then looking at volatility as well, this was this was another one that was a little bit difficult to digest this morning because whenever you see NASDAQ down 150 points,

[11:34:53] 160 points, we're rallying a little bit off the lows. You would expect more. Uh but volatility is actually down a little bit on the day. So, we'll see. We'll we'll see what that means for the broader market and uh go from there.

[11:35:06] >> Uh it was really loud this morning as well. I I got a little bit of a jump scare. My shoulders went up went up for a quick second. But uh in terms of the portfolio, not doing too much today. Uh we're down about 46 bucks. 46 bucks on

[11:35:18] bit. If we have some extra time, we'll we were looking at. Um we had a little bit of a shakeup this morning. So, we recoup some of that and we're looking like this is how we're going to end the

[11:35:32] day so far. And then SpaceX being disappointing like it's kind of been over the last couple weeks here. Again, if we look at the chart on SpaceX, uh we made a lower low from yesterday's low. Uh and things aren't looking too hot. Up

[11:35:44] about 15 cents on the day, uh just a fraction of a percent and uh trading getting closer to that uh >> yeah uh other day, too. So, we'll see how the market responds to that. But with that

[11:35:57] in the portfolio. Uh what's going to be top of mind for you so far today? >> Yeah, SpaceX, yeah, such an interesting one. Low of the day today, 13531. So yeah, perfectly uh continuing to test that that that uh original original IPO

[11:36:09] price, not what shares actually went public at the original, you know, ADR moves going on there. What's going on to everybody in chat? David A, good to see right behind us on the right. I'm gonna keep my professionalism up and not turn

[11:36:22] can uh bring him on sometime. [laughter] >> Have to whip your head around. Uh yeah, top of mind for me today. Um Meta King in my portfolio at the moment. Locking a

[11:36:35] good day, up two and a half% adding to the confusion of the NASDAQ being down make some nice legs upward on a good growth trend right now. But as we know tomorrow or we could be back at 750 tomorrow. Who knows with with this

[11:36:48] company. um takes these big old moves up and down. talking about that meta sell off just a few weeks ago and it's crazy to see that all that and the momentum continues to the upside. So, to your point, I mean,

[11:37:02] even up double from where we're at right now. We'll we'll take a look at it entries, the thing that's most interesting to me today is PayPal. Uh I mentioned, you know, PayPal earlier. Uh that's PPL. Yeah. Yeah, I I I mentioned

[11:37:15] it's a combined offer from Stripe and then also a PE firm called Advent. Uh I'll tell you, I had never heard of this Advent private equity before. You you around all the time. I I figured some billionaire just struck strung together

[11:37:29] some hustle takeovers. Um so, you know, I made a mental note this morning, acquire PayPal. And as I got off the train and was walking here, I passed they have like Advent PE. They have office. So, you know, whenever you uh

[11:37:43] find a a red car, you see a little bit more red cars. You think there's a >> Yes. It's just I was I was aware of it. So, as I was walking and just kind of, you know, looking around, it it caught my eye. But, uh yeah, so Advent real

[11:37:55] Hope the hope the Chicago company can land PayPal, I guess. Um but yeah, honestly though, this move, Advent, the $53 billion offer prices in $60.50 a share for PayPal. So, should this deal go through, we're actually not all the

[11:38:10] a adjustment, you know, even higher up towards that 60 level. But I'm tempted to get short here, I must say, because as you may recall, PayPal has already turned down one buyout offer this year from GameStop. Now, that was a much less

[11:38:23] legitimate, but much less enticing offer, I would say, considering that they said they were going to buy them $55 billion with $40 billion in cash, billion was going to come from. So, I can understand PayPal being a little bit

[11:38:36] apprehensive to that. But my point is there is some basis for PayPal denying to be bought right now. So should PayPal respond and say no, we don't want this shares sink right back to at least 50, if not all the way back to the pre- jump

[11:38:48] levels here of like mid 47. So uh a short opportunity is tempting to me here, but time horizon is is very tough to determine with with these deals as we Paramount Sky Dance and Warner Brothers saga continues to drag on. I saw that

[11:39:02] now there's uh 12 state legis legislators that are trying to block the Paramount from acquiring Warner Brothers now. Really? So there there's this legal deal. >> Do you think there's any level of like

[11:39:17] >> interference not not not from like a government standpoint but like uh I I business because we see certain acquisitions go through that would absolutely shock you and then you hear of other potential acquisitions that

[11:39:29] know what I [laughter] mean? >> Yeah, it is. It is interesting. choose sometimes depending on >> I find it strange that the legislators are pushing back on this Paramount acquisition because Larry Ellison, I

[11:39:42] mean, has so much money. I I have no doubt he does lots of lobbying to get political favors. Uh so really just bad billionaireing, dare I say [laughter] and and you don't have at least one politician from every state in your

[11:39:54] billionaire. You got >> that would be a better mistake I've >> Yeah. How are you a billionaire and you have 12 states that can turn on you? of Cards? >> No. Jokes. Jokes aside, there's a little

[11:40:07] >> Yeah, seriously. [laughter] >> You use this money. Everybody's corrupt. [laughter] You're corrupt. Just make make them corrupt with you. Um, but yeah, so big push back happening on that Paramount acquisition. Circling back to

[11:40:20] acquisitions can get tied up for a long time. So, if I wanted to make a short PayPal trade in the hopes that this acquisition doesn't go through, I just makes it a little bit less attractive to

[11:40:32] whenever that deal goes through. You know, say there could be a situation go through and I'm short for say the next 6 months and nothing happens and it through for the next 6 months and PayPal climbs steadily higher and higher and

[11:40:47] then suddenly it falls apart in the seventh month. you know, and these are arbitrary numbers. Could be like could be a year and 13 months or whatever. Um, time these things up. So, not racing to get short PayPal, but I do have short

[11:41:01] somebody else told me they were going to get short PayPal. chat? I media Christopher Branch, pleasure to see all of you. Mr. Pillows. >> My Peace Sky position is so down the drain. Gh. Yeah, Mr. Pillows. I'm I'm

[11:41:14] get out of one of my three Peace Sky contracts profitably. I had 10, 15, 20 position I've ever put on. I had [laughter] all on the same expiration date, January 15th, the next year I had 10, 15, and 20 calls. I liquidated the

[11:41:29] substantial profit, which basically funded the other two. So kind of have a two are way down in the dumps right now. Uh particularly the the 10 call hurting >> No. Um, just looking at this chart on Peace Sky right now, I'm curious to see

[11:41:44] like this because I know one thing that we recognize sometime is whenever we get such a long consistent downtrend that short interest used to uh usually don't know how bearish, you know, a lot of investors are on, you know, long-term

[11:41:59] know some of those numbers. I know the uh short interest on something like like names like some of the some of the other oil names as we continue to ride that creeping up very slowly. So I just wonder if some of those dynamics would

[11:42:13] Paramount's not a company I see going out of business over the next 5 years without somebody buying them at least. So um we'll see what we get. floor. Nice. Thank you Ranch. Appreciate it. Yeah we've done this I don't know

[11:42:26] we've been we've been here on Wednesdays for a little while now. verbiage used there is funny. Wow. On the floor because every time I'm on my didn't happen today specifically, but I will get the song on the floor. Stuck in

[11:42:41] >> Is that is that Christina Aguilera or or Jennifer Lopez? >> I need a quick hum. >> It's like uh tonight we going to get it >> that stuck in my that stuck in my head for the next three hours. Nobody clipped

[11:42:54] that. [laughter] Um, with that being said, brother, Apple right now trading at 326. Uh, we tried to pull it back a little bit here, but I don't know if there's any news attached to it. Uh, but I know you got out of

[11:43:07] that one for a max profit the other day. Yes. You almost like bottoms up like 80% profit on that one. Just decided to go ahead and take it off. And I say again, do I >> Is it a Is it a rotation? The thing that

[11:43:19] something's going on. It's odd. It's a little bit unusual to see that massive then we see things like Apple ripping to the upside, Meta ripping to the upside. was ripping to the upside as well. Um, so I guess time will tell. Uh, the

[11:43:34] clear as the market trades throughout the day. So has to be rotation like strong rotation out of some of these smaller names at at the top continue to run. It's yeah, we're there's there may be divergence

[11:43:48] even within the NASDAQ. You have these these big dogs are all having pretty good days today being dragged up along with ASML and then yeah, it has to be life out of it and keeping us compressed down. Um I would jump over to uh SanDisk

[11:44:02] >> Yeah, this thing this is one of the most emotionally challenging trades I've had >> It's a volatile one. >> Yeah, I think I'm going to wind up just going ahead and cutting my losses here. Um I I am down considerably, but there's

[11:44:16] there's more downside to be had. I don't know. Again, this one just emotionally describe it because I'm not even frustrated that's a loser. I lose trades the game, you know, but it is frustrating just because if if I do cut

[11:44:30] loss, before this trade, you know, goes to expiration uh and completely burns me, there is always, especially with Sandis, there is always a chance that this thing just jumps over 2,000 the next day. It's like the worst FOMO thing

[11:44:44] ever. So, I have to balance this potential FOMO with the reality that's that SanDisk does not seem to have any life right now, and I have 9 days left in this position for it to get back over 2,000. But to bounce from 1500 to 2,000,

[11:44:56] Sandis needs like a day and a half. So, you know, that's that's the other side of the equation is that it's hard to be rational and cut my losses knowing that unlike most things that you want to manage at 21 DTE, much less 9 DTE, uh it

[11:45:10] it just has much better prospects, much better upside prospects and could could still feasibly recover. So, the fact that it could just kind of keeps me on we saw SKH log yesterday, which we haven't talked about SKH very much since

[11:45:24] >> SKHY. >> SKHY. Yeah. Um, yeah, I thought we would see SKH Heinix, you know, drag things up a little bit after the remarkable day that it had yesterday. Now, granted, and and we're already getting into this

[11:45:38] confusion that I've mentioned would happen yesterday. SKH Heinix on the American market appears as though it had an amazing day, but that's because on before our market opens, it had a terrible day. So really it was just

[11:45:51] bouncing back and kind of eating into the middle of the some odd what was it 15 25% run down that took in the South Korean market yesterday. So we're conflation things with this being traded on two markets as I mentioned may

[11:46:03] happen. We see that with Chinese names too of course. Um so I I thought that inject some life into the broader memory space and save me on the Sandis to be the case as K trading down another 12% today.

[11:46:16] >> No a lot of volatility about 20 20 points off the highs there. Is this a keeping an eye on? Are you trading any options like this? I know we had SpaceX IPO the other day. We got involved in that a little bit. Is SKH just uh just a

[11:46:29] IPO plays out for you? >> Yeah. Yeah, I have. Well, just because it's not like I don't want to say it's not a real IPO, but like it was already Korea. It was already like it existed in the market. It's not actually its

[11:46:42] initial public offering. It's it's it's a IAPO. It's the initial American public Not new to me, new to you kind of kind of access to those. >> Well, awesome. We'll have to check out

[11:46:55] of the options are trading. I don't know if I'll take part in them, but it's >> Yeah, I would float as well. The the Andrew Raider thesis just folds today that I want to say that this pertains to options going live specifically, but

[11:47:08] today options go live, SKHX is down 12%. So, in the in the whopping sample size of two IPOs that we put this to the test on now, it has held up. 100% success >> Yeah. Batting a thousand. You got to love it. Um, and with that being said, I

[11:47:22] bit more off these lows. It's only right. Uh, SIBO traded down at the lows been on a rally to the upside. Now, trading at around 277. You know, still still below that high before the selloff of 371 over here, but um, you know,

[11:47:37] IV rink is solid. uh just be careful with some of the options on there, but 31st and uh we'll keep that one on the board at the same time. I know another often uh that I haven't really been trading is gold. Uh but gold seems to

[11:47:53] coming out of it. I know we put in a top near 5,670 on gold. Uh we had a crack to the downside which gave us a little bit more confidence that maybe the top is first time we've seen a little bit of a change in behavior here. we put in

[11:48:07] another low and now we've kind of just been crawling to the downside. So, I mean, if we zoom out over here on gold and we go to let's say a weekly chart, uh we can kind of see we're starting to trade at around the same level where we

[11:48:19] there a little bit more room to the downside? Sure. Um but at the same time, we we've put in some decent downside since the highs of around like 5,490. too active in the metals. Um not sure how you've been perceiving the metals.

[11:48:34] my mind for some time now. But the volatility is there. Um, you know, if >> Yeah. Yeah. The directionality is is certainly there. Um, I'm in the same metal space isn't one that I've been

[11:48:48] particularly invested in over the past uh, you know, few months. It's it's just these these commodities are like their own whole thing to keep up with. Like metals are are one thing, oil is another. And personally, I only have the

[11:49:01] bandwidth to keep up with like one of them at a time. barely do that. So once oil becomes the trendy thing, my mind goes off metals and onto oil cuz it's just it's its own whole thing to try to keep up with and let alone predict.

[11:49:13] there. I'm curious to see how this is going to play out because again there's of a pop to the upside. Is this going to continue? We're not sure. Um I think driven based off of what Trump might be saying, based off of what deals are

[11:49:27] know of. Uh but but another instance where these these products definitely looking for some direction in the market. Uh but definitely managing your risk no doubt. >> Uh Sunni Sunnith in chat apologies I'm

[11:49:40] accurately pointing out that next time the reverse position. He has a record of four on four. It's true. I am a SanDisk rug and whatever I do next you the opposite is probably the better move. So

[11:49:53] about that though? I remember I was getting short Micron down at around I think the seven or 800s and I think I took a short position two times and I know I think I'm going just be done right now too. So I don't know if I'll

[11:50:07] inverse my positions if I touch Micron again cuz I am 0 for two but I'm going Micron and some of these other tech names, I'm sorry, if Micron and some of sell off a little bit lower and then we get a little bit of a relief pop,

[11:50:22] confidence maybe to take some short delta to the downside, but only if we even though this seems like a substantial pullback, we've seen the type of volatility that Micron and Sandis can put in. So, don't want to get

[11:50:34] moves, but we'll keep an eye on them. >> Yeah, and Sandis probably moving on to that there will be more trades there. There are [laughter] so many other good you're out, four strikes, you're out. I I I usually do have a at least loose

[11:50:47] three strikes, you're out policy in situations like these. I I actually did the same thing with with silver. I happened to win silver on my third one. one up in the medals into the end of last year, uh I tried to get short

[11:51:00] eventually won the third one to such a degree that it covered the first two, which was fortunate. However, with SanDisk, the only reason I decided to policy. The only reason I decided to take the fourth stab at SanDisk was

[11:51:12] because I was changing my directional bias. I had tried to get short thrice getting long now. That's different enough." Uh, and then just, you know, here here we go again. Just go move it moving right down. So, uh, yeah, I I

[11:51:24] it's interesting cuz like maybe the next opposite of what I want to do. Then it will be up to y'all to decide if doing the opposite of my original

[11:51:38] that trade would be the ultimate determinant of that. >> That's [laughter] true. >> I might have to go neutral. Uh but it is just crazy to see in hindsight how some of these metal names are panning out

[11:51:51] again. I mean, we've seen underlyings go into that euphoric kind of state, but to see that on silver and gold is just not something you see every day, not something you see every decade. Um, so with that being said, I mean, I'd

[11:52:05] gold right now, although we've had a little bit of a a cool off period is point considering the euphoric moves. You know, we went on a little bit there. to retire a little bit early there because I [laughter] don't know if

[11:52:19] are going to get back to those levels anytime soon. Again, I hope I'm wrong because I do love the volatility. Um, and that would must mean we probably something else in the broader market going on if silver and gold continue to

[11:52:33] >> Yeah, obviously very tied into rates as well. It's like it's a these are these oil. It's obviously different things that move both of them, but yeah, like I of criteria to try to keep up with if you're trading these things. It's

[11:52:46] don't know the dedication. >> Yeah. I mean, everybody kind everybody kind of has their their bread basket of underlyings they pay attention to. and their personality, so they kind of stick to those things, too. So, it's a

[11:52:58] >> Yeah, you're absolutely right. Um, let's >> Yeah, you're absolutely right. Um, let's see what else here. AT&T T. Uh, I think right now. Actually, I I was I was sitting and waiting on this one. This I

[11:53:11] over 2250 by then. We just didn't quite catch the bounce quickly. there. I was I was directionally correct. Uh, just a bit too aggressive attractive risk profile. and also a bit too aggressive with my time horizon for

[11:53:25] the same reason. Uh we're down $35 notional on this and I have seven of notional on this and I have seven of these. So $7 notional per. Um and I mean yeah that constitutes like I don't know 12 15%.

[11:53:38] >> Uh so being able to get that out this this far from a 15% loss. Yeah. I'm the me being directionally correct and getting those small legs up has kind of course, I just get slipped another $4 as I try to get out of here. Yeah, there we

[11:53:54] go. So, exit on that one as as a loser. We will move on to bigger and better correct in the conviction and wrong in the execution, but it's the way the know, number one. >> Yeah, of course. Like I said, I lose

[11:54:07] trades all the time. It's Yeah. Anybody it's Yeah. I'm not going to go on a whole tie raid, but I hate seeing people on Instagram. They're like, "Oh, our Discord server has 87% win rate." It's like, no, no, you don't. or you're doing

[11:54:19] things that that is not uh profitable to to win an 87% click. You're doing 90 90% things at an 87% clip. Nobody's winning that many trades. It's it's not how this going to take losers. >> Law of large numbers.

[11:54:33] them small, trade them often. As we always say, to see you, Mich. >> As we shift gears a little bit here, uh take in the micro NASDAQ this morning. Uh again this was that morning level

[11:54:47] that we were looking at our value area low sitting at around 29,804. This level was really interesting because near the close yesterday, we had some massive selling going into the market into the close.