Jobs Report & Semiconductor Trades — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:06] Good morning, Liz. We're here. We're back. It's the Liz and Chris Show this >> Happy Jobs Day, Chris. Happy jobs day. You doing okay? You feeling okay? You >> I'm caffeinated. We got about 5 seconds left. That's right. We can go right to

[00:20] payrolls are due out this very moment right now. We're going to get them to hit the tape here. 7556 as those numbers are due to set to hit the screen. 7560 or so. Liz, it's the big event of the day. The markets really

[00:32] we're going to get into some chitchat momentarily, but the jobs numbers uh mediocre [clears throat] 57k versus 110k expected. >> Uh unemployment rate is in though 4.2 from 4.3% and wages uh not great. 3.5%.

[00:48] Spoos up right before jobs report. I was like Chris, let's look at this. Boos are up 10. Now they're up 23, up 24, up 25, up 26. We we keep going up. So, I don't know what the numbers were. Chris does, but I market does. Yeah,

[01:01] hot, not too cold. The market was worried about overheating. I'm going to pay just quick attention to the two-year note here. That's all we need to know. prices are going up. The market is backing off of any hike premonitions for

[01:15] the month of July. Right now, h we can go into the July 4th weekend with ease. Do you have good plans for this weekend? >> Uh to control the frizz in my hair. We which is fun. I love our town around 4th of July. But I don't know, Chris, it's

[01:30] of July. But I don't know, Chris, it's 112 degrees outside. The humidity is [laughter] >> 112. I saw that yesterday. I asked Alex, "What's the temperature tomorrow?" Oh, it's going to be 100 and feel like 112.

[01:45] Excuse me. >> Sorry. What? What did you tell me? Go canceled tonight. They're like, "No, it's just too hot. too much of a liability to have the kids outside. So, it's a perfect day to be on air for

[01:57] it's a perfect day to be on air for three straight hours. [laughter] love to see a visitor during the show. >> She may You know what? She just lost both of her two front teeth. >> No, that's the greatest. Chris, this is

[02:10] so cute. I need I need She has to pop on. Is she camera shy? funny. >> She's six, right? >> six. So, when we first >> when we first started the show, like

[02:23] years and years and years ago, my son was four and my daughter was three. And they loved coming on camera. I would bring him I would bring him to the it. >> Yeah. She uh I I have her doing some

[02:36] things in public now and I have her try to speak up at stuff and she's she's a >> is she shy? >> When she warms up, Chatterbox, it's like, "Oh, that's that's Italian New Yorker." Okay. That's where the

[02:49] stereotype comes from. I got it. I understand. Apple didn't fall that far >> No, it eventually comes out. It's pretty cute. It's pretty cute. I put gold mine and four. Actually, right after Well, hey, I shouldn't say this. Your camp got

[03:02] and and I when they're three and four, I was like, "You guys need to do every camp under the sun, right? I would pick them up. So, they were both in theater. So, they learned to public

[03:14] speak very early. Even my son against will. That's been basically the last two and uh Dress, the producers behind the show on like, "Guys, I'm gonna be off picking my kid and driving them to the next thing so I don't need to worry

[03:26] then I'll be right back. Then I'll be right back." that everybody's just got so much free to do? So, we did everything under the sun with them, which was fun.

[03:39] It's like there's there's stuff to be done. There's knowledge to be learned >> Get some dirt on your hands. Go outside. >> We were outside kids. Hey, speaking of pre-war, right? So, oil. Did you like my segue outside oil? I don't even know if

[03:53] that was a good segue. [laughter] >> I'm shocked. I have no other way to put it. I can't believe oil's fallen this far this fast. Um, we're almost at the pre-war low. The low that comes in 6696 is the low that we hit once the war

[04:06] >> And we haven't seen it since then. But we're we're there. We're pretty much there. >> I uh that's it's a good news. Listen, notice the chart here, by the way, gasoline futures, they are not close to

[04:20] their pre-war levels. So, uh, Liz, as we go into the holiday weekend, one point of consideration here, 289. If you take a look at the history between RB futures and where the prices are at the pump, there's usually about a one-mon lag. And

[04:33] it's going to be about a 75 cents to $1 buffer. So, in a month from now, nationwide gas prices should be sitting closer to about 365 is effectively what for me is relief because I'm still paying $469 479 at the pump at my local

[04:51] I've never looked at it from this perspective. So, you think there's about futures saying that that's what it should be? >> And how accurate is it? Pretty accurate. >> Again, it depends on the state, right?

[05:04] Illinois is going to have way higher gas taxes than a state like Oklahoma. So the spread between gas futures and Oklahoma prices are going to be narrower than what you'd see between like New York, Illinois, California versus RB.

[05:17] because I always look at natural gas NG and that never is that the phone. >> No, I'm [laughter] I'm a natural gas futures trader, so I usually do that. my gold my bullish gold position came off this morning for 50% profit, which

[05:32] is I had a GC. I just put a put spread on with in GC with Mike and um Mike and Jamal the other day and time passed and we got that little pop up and I got out week and a half. >> You know, gold's looking really nice

[05:44] leading short right now, but after watching the way that this, you know, perhaps bottoming is playing out down here. Uh and volatility firming up a touch throughout the turn. This this does feel like maybe gold is trying to

[05:57] if the two-year yield is backing off, the dollar is going to come in. Equities are stretching their legs a little bit. That is kind of a classic risk on type perception around the Fed is that anchor point.

[06:11] love the macro of this. Doesn't matter to me. This is And Chris, like I said, because this is I'm just a gold bull. So little bits in, no matter what's happening because I know that at some

[06:25] like the market, the general market, right? So over time it just creeps up. Over time it creeps up and has and it's been it's been pretty good. today's game plan, let's just take a quick step back right now before we uh

[06:40] going to do a I think we have a signal versus noise coming up shortly. Um >> we do >> today's a thin holiday. I think we should just start here. Bond market closes at 2 p.m. Despite whatever uh

[06:54] people the past few days, it's since been amended. The stock market is open tomorrow. Everything is closed tomorrow. >> I would just like to amend what you're >> Ah, sorry. I'm thinking [laughter] two Eastern 2 Eastern. 2 Eastern, 1 central.

[07:09] Yes. Um, so how do you operate on a day like this where most the market here henceforth? We just got through the major liquidity binary event risk of the session. It is a clear calendar the rest of the day effectively.

[07:23] knowing that tomorrow's holiday, Saturday, Sunday's off? You're not going even Sunday night. >> You know, I I mean, I really I'm not from a monthly perspective. Sorry, silent. It's my phone. I'm looking at it

[07:35] I'm learning from you. I'm learning each day from you. The June is going to be up 3.2% effectively. Um or not I'm sorry, not June. July will be up 3.2% buying dips. And sometimes I think the thinly thinly traded markets when you

[07:50] not saying there will be less liquidity, but when you do have less liquidity, looking for a buy the dip mentality. That's what I'm that's what I'm doing. every every downtick as an opportunity. Speaking of, do we have a lot of stocks

[08:05] in Kore with the Korean markets overnight? responding to what happened in US markets yesterday. Micron is actually up a tenth of a percent right now. It's up a dollar pre-market here. uh SanDisk

[08:18] SNDK likewise had a pretty bad fall yesterday up a tenth of a percent here as well. So yeah, yesterday's yesterday's Cosby pullback which was again I think like 5%. Um it was more of a reaction what was

[08:32] >> So speaking of can you can you pop back back into the micron chart for me real quick? So, I was listening to something this morning um and and there's some this morning um and and there's some there there's a large put put

[08:44] congestion at the the thousand level in a micron. So, you're looking at it at at 1064 right now. And I'm not saying they're self-filling prophecies, but a round number, you'll see buyers and sellers fight to keep it at that number.

[08:57] So, I'm not saying it's going to go down today. I was I thought we'd be have a down a little bit and now we're right there. that thousand level seems to be today at the thousand level. So, I'm going to keep an eye on that that kind

[09:12] of stuff. So, and and to be honest with you, I might throw if I can um at the around the thousand level >> because you can see that the open just down for the zero DT across the strikes here. 1,00 1.9 open interest,

[09:26] 1.9K open interest on the uh call side, but then you go over to the put side and it's 10.6,000 contracts. >> Yes. Yes. there's a lot of open interest in the puts at that thousand level. So, and keep in mind that's not um when

[09:40] seem like a lot of open interest, but from Micron for a $1,000 product, it is right. So, you it's not necessarily a lot for you're looking at S&P. I I always look at the open interest in the zero days and S&P all the time. One of

[09:53] biggest indicators because I'm from the SIBO is looking at the most active options in both the equities and the indexes. I just like to look at that. because you don't know what the big buyers or sellers have in their

[10:07] bit of knowledge that I like to be armed with. That open interest says a lot to me. >> So Liz, we have a great run of show coming up today. Of course, you and I are going to cover this non-farm payroll

[10:19] least influencing the markets here. Stocks are up liking the data. Even >> [laughter] >> Even crypto's up. >> But that but Chris, that was that rose before that was up before the jobs

[10:32] the jobs number. So crypto when I when I woke up this morning, crypto was up I rubbed my eyes. Somebody said one a percentage and a half. And that's a huge wings up after the report. I don't know if it's doing it on the report.

[10:46] fair assessment. We do have a signal versus noise, Liz. I usually do these some trades that we had across some of the uh the memory chips in a little uh TP, of course. We're going to hit the opening bell. Uh we have Jonathan

[11:00] Melchin, the head of ETF trading over at Shelton's Option Management. He's going to be joining us in about an hour, of course, confirm and send. So, if you do morning, feel free to send them over to us. Research tasty.com. You can also put

[11:13] fish them out for us and get them over into our slide deck with Luis. Uh, beyond that, Gus and Errol will be here later today. Look, Mike and Jamal are carrying this torch for most of today's session. I think that's going to be fun.

[11:27] >> We've got a jam-packed show, though. I mean, they keep this moving. It's every 10 minutes guests. They want us They want it They want it moving. So, so it'll it'll be pretty packed. >> What are you trading anything this

[11:39] pre-market or do you usually wait until the market's open? No, I mean I said yesterday I was going to put on a little thing in ES just in case, you know, core one was pretty low coming into today. It was below 6% the correl correlation

[11:52] index and it was below 7% me below 8% the last time we had a non-farm payrolls holding up. So I sprinkled in a little bit of a zero DTE out of the money put spread um risking one to make eight if it if the S&P dropped 50 points. It did

[12:06] not. So, I'm going to eat like a like a six cents loss, so to speak, which is long deltas in a bunch of different equity names like the NASDAQ, like uh don't really see a reason to change course on that stuff, but I do kind of

[12:21] course on that stuff, but I do kind of have a plan here for me today. Um MEES of a breakout here. And I know that you're not much of a technical trader, do see left shoulder, head, right shoulder here. And that would be an

[12:33] inverted head and shoulder with a target up near 8,96 and a half. So I'd like to build this into two tanch two tanches here. Um one at a 7600 entry and another through the break of the all-time high north of 7694. And in doing so that's

[12:47] going to bring my cost basis up to about 7648 or so. But u if we can get a run up to 8100, it's basically risking um around 1,100 bucks to make what would be north of about $4,500 in profit. And I'd be happy to trail this up against our

[13:02] 50-day moving average here, which back in June it caught us a few times. So, you know, we'll see what happens, but risking one to make four potentially >> Okay, so this is that this is the head and shoulders pattern. I like it. It

[13:16] shoulder. You get a breakout. It's Christmas in July. Why not have a little anything now? Would this have a correlation with I know the Trump like every, you know, every kid born. Wait, does your son fall in this?

[13:32] >> Yes. >> Yes. [laughter] [sighs and gasps] So, um, so the those accounts are opening up and did you see amount of t the certain tickers. So, which I find fascinating. I find

[13:45] >> Oh, no. My kids are going to have to own micro [clears throat] and gel. Unfortunately, it's so bizarre. It's the spider ETFs. >> Yeah. No, it's that's good, though. I mean, I I think this is generally good

[13:58] policy. I know that a lot of people don't like the name, but you should Why Why wouldn't we give our kids Spy and TLT when they're first born? too. I was just kind of joking around with you as I was saying this. They're

[14:11] will own Micron and some tech stocks, but they will not own SpaceX because going in triple Q's. So, you might have to dabble a little bit with the SpaceX >> Yeah. Well, you know, I see that this OpenAI is talking about giving the

[14:24] government a 5% stake. >> I don't know. I'm not I don't know how I feel. I'd rather Open AAI uh dilute its equity pool and give each individual household equity in the company itself because

[14:38] no direct benefit to households if the government owns a stake in it and it's it's just going to create more problems. >> Well, that would be unprecedented. I don't know any anybody's ever given anybody's ever given people stakes in

[14:51] it. But this should be it should be interesting to watch all this stuff. I government's so aggressively taking stakes in all these companies. But it cycle is different for the semiconductors and the and and these

[15:04] related names because now it's being treated like energy or national defense this in the past. >> No, it never was. It never was. little bit more about these uh some of

[15:18] for signal versus noise. >> Right. Right. So, signal versus noise is where we take unusual activity on the options tape and we ask whether or not happening there. Are people just throwing away money? Maybe they're

[15:30] hedging a position. Maybe it's a whale that's coming into the market. Um, we're memory here right now because that's the number one thing that people are paying noticed yesterday we did have Sandis, Micron, and Clack were the three worst

[15:43] performers in the market, all losing by more than 10%. But, um, yesterday, for example, we we had 56.6 6 million in bears put premium hit in Micron and SanDisk. All of it on the same exact date for Xbury July 10th. So yes, I know

[15:57] to do my usual disclaimer. We don't know the rest of these people's book, but it's still worth discussing. And maybe they're putting on a hedge trade. Maybe I'll see what the chat has to say. >> So hold on. I need you I need you gota

[16:10] second. Say that sentence again. So they were all all three of them had put were were all all three of them had put were put premium in July 10th. And yes, names, the major semiconductor names. 56.6 million in put premium.

[16:26] Oh, with July 10th expiries. >> And that is next Friday. I'm just out there. Next Friday. Okay, >> that's interesting. That's interesting. with Sesuana? They're they're claiming that people are gaming the system. It's

[16:39] pretty interesting that all three of these names have it's just something. Frank Walsh. There's your disclaimer. But it's interesting. I like this. But it's interesting. I like this. So you have uh uh July 10th. Why July

[16:53] bandwidth memory leader. It has about 60% of the market share. It's expected to list its ADR in the NASDAQ as early as can you guess the date? >> July 10th. [laughter] >> July 10th.

[17:07] >> So you could have a little bit of a window here where if you've been trying to get exposure to something like uh SKH Highix, maybe you've been doing it through EM for example. But now you have a direct way to do this. You don't need

[17:20] a proxy like a Micron or a SanDisk or a Clack anymore. You can just go and get your uh you can get your SKH Highix directly. So you had this incredibly violent run in these names recently in part because the pricing power that

[17:32] these uh companies have has absolutely exploded. NAN prices are up 200% over the past year. DRAM the dynamic random access memory is up 300% over the past three year up 700% the past four years. So ADA data data centers right now are

[17:44] So ADA data data centers right now are consuming 70% of available supply. Uh yeah, that's crazy, Liz, right now. So maybe this week we got a bearish catalyst that can help push us through into this ADR listing window. Maybe

[17:57] announced it's building its own AI cloud, which I thought was pretty funny yesterday. Model as a service and raw bare metal computely seeing out of its own data centers. I'm going to break this down into English for people. The

[18:09] reason why companies like XAI and Meta are leasing out compute. Even though I thought we didn't have enough compute, no one's using their inference models, right? If no one's using your inference models, you're building a city for no

[18:22] one to live in. People want to use Claw. They want to use Chat GPT. No one really cares about Grock. No one cares about Llama. So, you have all this excess compute for those particular AI models in the system, but there's not enough

[18:35] for the ones that people are actually using. And that's why there's been token limitization on on platforms like Claude. So in any event, you have this idea here that Meta is going to be able to lease its excess capacity. Maybe they

[18:48] don't need to continue to build out their AI infrastructure. Liz, I'm going with the audience. Meta is going to going to continue to plow money into the space. It just doesn't need it for its

[19:01] >> I'm not taking the other side of that bet. I'm with we want to get to because that's the story right the trades here for Micron uh July 10th 900 put 13% out of the money when it's put on. We'll go to the

[19:14] money when it's put on. We'll go to the July options chain here 46.3 million in premium implied volatility around 116%. So I know on the surface that looks a lot. Open interest in the particular strike only grew by about 6% after the

[19:27] trades put on. You can see here 25.9,000 in the open interest. Now, um I I think hedge against a massive long position rather than a fresh short. If Liz, if you rose uh rode Micron up this year alone, several hundreds of percent and

[19:42] competitor in the space doing its ADR listing coming next week, maybe you're concerned about dilution. So, you're buying protection without necessarily giving up your cost basis in the stock. Um it could also be a role. Someone may

[19:57] moved it out to the July 10th expiry now that the date carries a cleaner catalyst. SanDisk is a little bit different. The July 1500 puts 26% out of the money here. Um those are bought in with 6.57 million of premium with an IV

[20:09] around 144%. So this is closer to a raw real position Someone's looking for a sharp break to happen in the trade immediately. It's of the purest momentum names in the market. So I'm going to leave it there

[20:24] right now. You have a lot of interesting options activity particularly in Micron between the two with that ADR listing coming up for SKH Highix next Friday. It hedging activity and not necessarily someone who's laying out like a whale

[20:38] trade to call a top, so to speak. >> Is there a corresponding There's no when you saw those puts go up, you didn't see the calls. So, I mean, my move when I make money in a a stock that I've written up like crazy, is I put a

[20:51] basically what they could be doing, especially in the short term because collar on that or or to buy puts in the nearer term. I think that I think it guess once again it's a guess Frank and I understand that there is two sides to

[21:05] every story and then there's the truth because um but my guess would be what you said somebody taking or covering hedging a very very very long position. >> Interesting. Someone in the chat saying that SKH Highix uh is not going to be an

[21:19] ADR. Um I I'm just that's the information that I've seen here. Someone suggest that it's just going to be a direct IPO, but Business Korea uh Chosoon, the Korean paper of record, they've all said it's an ADR.

[21:34] >> So, okay, just just put a point there. >> Yeah, just keep an eye on it. But so, I go through, when you see unusual activity in the options tape, I know that there's follow traders out there who like to take a look and say, "Maybe

[21:48] I can copy that trade." But I obviously as an experienced trader that's not necessarily what you're doing with this information. Um what does it tell you about the market that you know right before a holiday for example traders are

[22:00] laying out this much premium in a name like Micron with such a short expiry That's that's nothing. That's next week. >> Yeah. But I also think it's it's people it's cheaper. It's a lot cheaper to get your protection into a holiday weekend.

[22:14] well. If I'm going on vacation or if there's a holiday weekend or I don't going to have a couple extra cocktails, I buy puts because guess what you can do the next day if it doesn't work. Sometimes just to sleep better at night,

[22:29] overnight and then get out of it the next day. That's what these near-term don't know if that's what they're doing, but but Micron is fascinating to watch, level to me today. And then it could have been a roll from the thousand level

[22:44] going down to that 900 level. Maybe they maybe they want to it's cheaper to have level in in those in those put premiums. So, it's pretty interesting. I I like options traders getting smarter with their hedges. Nearer term is cheaper.

[23:00] That's right. So I I mean the question I want to put to the chat let us know are these July 10th puts uh smart money front running US investors to get direct access to SKH highinex or are traders paying for crash protection and what's a

[23:14] really crowded position right now listen the bank of America fund manager survey still has semis as the most crowded trade people have not given up uh still north of 70% of fund managers according to their survey are long semis right now

[23:28] so it just it feels like it's what everyone's still in despite these days of five up, 10 down, 10 up, five down. I mean, just we're chopping around and >> Well, yeah, we are chopping, but it but it's it's kind of we talk about this all

[23:41] the time in the market. It's it's kind of it's the hot topic right now. It's the block, but it's the popular kid in school and everybody is in these in want to be and we kind of joked around about this yesterday saying people at

[23:54] cocktail parties want to say that I was in it when, right? I was in it when. So, >> I was I'm not joking about that. I listen I hear those people and [laughter] I'm I'm my wife points out that you can't act like Larry David

[24:06] and so there are social consequences for how you treat people. And so like when I hear people talk about this it's like when did you buy it? Like give me the the date. When you talk about the date range in which you purchase something, I

[24:19] done that too. >> Oh my god, it's hilarious. I love your wife. It's the greatest thing I ever [laughter] heard. dealing with a lot. [laughter] >> You can't act like Larry David. I love

[24:32] it. When when did you buy that? Let me know. [laughter] >> Show me your account. Let me see your trade statement, you know. Okay, so we Um, you know, one of the intricacies of today's market, you get this little bit

[24:44] of bounce in Micron and SanDisk as we go into the pre-market. I could we call it sticking, 151, we closed yesterday at 133. This feels like it's going to be a quiet day. I mean, I could I could sense TP coming

[24:57] on in a little bit and telling us that he's looking at selling zero DTE iron market to stay pinned. >> He is I I'm I'm going to put that I'm come in. I mean, the VIX, if you take a look at the VIX right now, it's just

[25:10] above 16. So, that is telling you just above 16. I'm going to bet we get a tip a dip a toe in the water into the 15 handle at some point today. If we go to the quietest day you'll you'll see you'll see before in July. How about

[25:22] you'll see in July. >> You you did get that 1606 uh into 1598 low. Yeah, 1598 low here. We got a little bit of a pop the lows that we the monthly low, we don't ever do technical analysis on volatility

[25:38] series, but >> 16 VIX here going into a holiday about the seasonality of this all. July is 11 for the past 11. It's the best month of the year going back to 1928 for the S&P 500. No matter what time horizon

[25:54] you slice in or out, July is the month where if you want to be long stocks, you're going to be long stocks. But Liz, there's an important factor here. When we go into the second half of the year, the first week or two of July, the

[26:06] momentum names that won the first half usually are not the names that do well. >> It's everything else that kind of lagged in the broader market right now. So, we window here, right? We go through a little bit of window here where maybe

[26:20] memory the leadership group semis just had their best quarter ever. Maybe they're the ones that trade sideways for a bit and you look to your mag sevens which had an awesome day yesterday. Maybe they're the plays that get a

[26:32] names that didn't do well or as well as semis in the second quarter. So the leaning low on deltas right now. I can't look away. I know seasonality doesn't do it for you. But for whatever reason, people like to buy in July. And my

[26:46] People are trying to steal your money because they want to own the stocks through July. So you buy through July. That has worked for me for most years that I've been a professional. And I'm not going to fade myself effectively.

[27:00] I'd rather be wrong uh and long than not long and wrong. about this a little bit yesterday. I think we called the summer doldrums where VIX goes down and market just meanders up. a 3% is a meander up,

[27:13] leaning towards I'm leaning towards your seasonality. I'm becoming a season. I I to hear more. I don't want July. I'm going to need to sit down with you and month at some point, Chris, because I want to write down the seasonality and

[27:28] get this stuff from? Farmers almanac, the traders alac farmers. >> No, I download the data series and I have my little uh Chris GPT bot compile Liz, the thing about now it's self-fulfilling. So, if we want this to

[27:41] work, everyone's got to get on board. [laughter] here at Tasty Live. We're going to be back in a few minutes. Uh, stocks are still up barely. It's a thin day. Non-farm payrolls. Goldilocksish. See

[27:57] Non-farm payrolls. Goldilocksish. See you in 90 seconds. Mike, what does it mean to be assigned? When you are assigned, you are

[28:13] ultimately short an option that's in the money and the counterparty has the ability to exercise that option. So, if you are assigned, it means your option against your will ultimately has turned into 100 shares of long or short stock.

[28:28] >> What does a green scratch mean? >> Ooh, a green scratch refers to And when I say you, [music] I mean me. Uh, green scratch refers to rolling a position, defending a position, and instead of just closing it for less than

[28:43] uh loss that you're seeing, or maybe a $100 loss, $50 loss, a green scratch is when you close it for maybe a 5-cent win, [music] 10-cent win, 15cent winner. Just the ability to see that green number on your screen and get out in a

[28:57] number on your screen and get out in a profitable way as opposed to a loss. Taking off strategies, that's also pretty easy. What do you do with

[29:12] everything in between? Well, in our options crash course strategy series, the winners. We're going to show you how to handle the losers, but most importantly, we're going to show you how to handle everything in between with

[29:24] simple and clear guidelines and reference points. We'll see you guys reference points. We'll see you guys there. Heat. Heat.

[30:11] easy it is. >> It's a very quick, light platform. >> and with one or two clicks, you can be anywhere on the platform. Being able to see graphically where your profit and loss zones are, whether it's a pool, a

[30:26] puddle, or a sea, you can navigate your way out of it with the safety platform. So, I love that. [music]

[30:46] holding up here after that jobs report. VIX is approaching 16. Fall futures are likewise in 18 on the VX. Maybe a cycle low close in the cards for today. But around in this market before the cash equity open, which is why we bring in

[31:01] equity open, which is why we bring in Gust Outing. Gus, how are you? >> Always good. How are you guys doing? >> Gus, you look fantastic. Now, do you mustache or just the hair? >> Sometimes. Uh, sometimes it does it does

[31:13] affect the mustache. I I do have a a little tiny comically small comb that I [laughter] head over here. Yeah, cuz it will it will get a little disheveled. extend to the mustache as well. Humidity maybe not so much, but it is it I do

[31:27] doesn't look unckempt. >> See, inquiring minds want to know. We we good. Looking good. >> The inquiring minds are always asking me and the answer is neither. This is just this is just how it comes. This is stock

[31:41] for me. Um, I have three very interesting stories for you guys today. >> Can we fact check that? [laughter] >> Question in the chat. I didn't mean to >> We can we we can we can do house calls. It's it's fine. You guys [laughter] You

[31:53] needed. I will show you there is no hair dye in my house. Um, I will be I will be in Chicago next month. [laughter] I do have to I do have to say I mean I the show together cuz people thought you were my son but a lot of my family has

[32:09] the same situation where the beards come out red and the hair is slightly blonde. >> you might need a DNA test here, Liz, where it's it's getting dangerous. This >> I was like I believe you. I'm gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna put trust in you, but go

[32:23] >> It's the Irish or Scottish blood. I don't know what it is, but it's it's the way the way it comes. But anyway, uh yeah, I have three interesting things to cover here today. Uh first leading the pack is Apple. Uh news has broken that

[32:35] Apple has plans for five new iPhones through the end of 2027. Uh from what I going to be on iPhone 22 or whatever that would be by the end of 2027. They're counting separate phones as like the the 18, the 18 Pro, and the 18 Pro

[32:48] Max would be three phones. Uh they do also have a foldable iPhone in 10 million units of the foldable iPhone in 2027. uh and on their current trajectory, they are set to produce 220 million units uh of iPhones altogether

[33:03] by the end of 2026. So, Apple is really ramping it up and uh trying to get back with with these foldable iPhones entering production. I've long lamented how Apple, it feels in the past five or so years, has really stagnated on

[33:18] optimizations to the iPhone with every new one that rolls out. Better camera, slightly better screen quality. Uh, so I'm I'm excited to see them trying to foldable phones. We'll see uh how that pans out for them. Um, but yeah,

[33:32] phone. Has anybody seen a flip phone in your generation? have certainly never owned a flip phone. Uh, they I I have I have vague memories existing. But no, I mean, by the time I was uh really old enough to start

[33:47] And then uh my first phone was was an iPhone 4. parents' Motorola brick. >> There you go. There you go. [laughter] >> That's That's what I remember. >> I I I hear great things about the

[34:01] >> You missed out on the T-Mobile sidekicks. Yeah. Oh god. The Liz, remember all the varieties of phones in like the early 2000s. >> Oh yeah. Well, okay. Now I'm going to go in the wayback machine because none of

[34:16] >> Certainly not. >> No. [laughter] But I I grew up in like cell service, so I would have to use a pay phone to page my dad to come get me whatever. >> There you go. There. [laughter]

[34:31] have to sometime for the novelty. They're they're they're still around. I bucket list. >> No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I >> I I >> They are disgusting. If you see one, do

[34:43] >> You You haven't picked up a pay phone and been like, "Hey, it's your son. Pick decline, decline the collect charges." Just [laughter] dialing collect to get your parents to pick you up and then and then just hang

[34:58] it's him." >> Do you do you accept this call from I'm >> Do you do you accept this call from I'm at them all pick me up? No. [laughter] sure. >> Oh my gosh. Um, next thing on the docket

[35:14] interesting, kind of tying in with Meta selling off some extra compute power yesterday. Uh, Nvidia obviously already in the business of selling compute power new program that will give cloud-based AI firms and other startups uh free

[35:28] compute power in return for equity. So, Nvidia will take a cut of equity in these startups. In return, they give token credits to them uh and access to their more than 200,000 GPUs, including their new data center in Indonesia. And

[35:43] yes, in turn, they receive equity. So, Nvidia trying to get a little slice of that they'll stumble across the next OpenAI or anthropic and and happen to own, you know, 1 to 5% of it or whatever the cut may wind up being based on token

[35:56] usage. Uh so, yeah, I thought this was an interesting one as well. Um I don't want to say Nvidia is VC, but it's it's leaning in that direction. and Nvidia uh return for equity in some of these companies and many many of them could

[36:09] fail. So definitely a gamble for Nvidia here as well. here as well. >> Circular financing rumors abound. that. >> Yeah, I love the next complaint.

[36:22] >> I I love the one graphic with the you guys have probably seen it. Nvidia is has all the arrows with where all the AI money flows and it literally is just a just creating money on each other, passing the same $5 billion around or

[36:36] computing, selling compute, obviously a trendy thing to do right now. Uh, Nvidia going to sell it in exchange for equity as as well as in exchange for cash. So, I like the potential of investing in in smaller companies. I mean, I know you

[36:51] always a possibility, but all you need is one good one to take off, right? that's the thing, especially with the way these AI companies can can grow by time, uh yeah, if you can just catch the one that that turns into a hundred

[37:05] your losses on on the hundred that that don't pan out. So yeah, I think it's a world has enough cash to do this, there it is. Thank you, wonderful production circle graphic. >> Um but yeah, so I I'm a fan of the move.

[37:22] thick pockets there. there's no reason this time for them. I think >> this is a pretty interesting graphic and >> Yeah. [laughter] >> I don't know how we how we got that up

[37:36] >> Could I say that when I see a company take its money and start throwing it around to outside sources, it tells me that it's internal R&D can't produce a high enough return on invested capital. >> I I would say that it's never a good to

[37:50] operating like a VC, sure, fine. But like I I'm always apprehensive when I see a company taking money out of their own pockets to bootstrap on other >> I I I think that that's a fair point. But at the same time, in the case of

[38:02] Nvidia specifically, I almost just wonder if they don't have the manpower making money handover fist to the extent that how do you even deploy all of this capital that you have laying around. Um but in in broadstrokes I I I would say I

[38:16] hundred billion dollar company doing this, I would be a little bit more pockets that I think that they're they're peppering. >> it's a fair point, Gus. >> Um, last thing on the docket for today

[38:28] balance sheet. >> Yeah, for Frank. you going to do with all that? >> Jensen, let me hold a million dollars. I I don't need much. [laughter] >> We can do something with it, Gus.

[38:41] >> Yeah, just a small investment. I have a startup and I I would like to use Nvidia startup and I I would like to use Nvidia computing in exchange for 100% equity. Um [laughter] >> anyway's called IG. You can pick the go

[38:55] use the IG. Do it for us. We shares. We'll go Veio Ventures. You can you can have it. We get a nice ring to it logo. It'll be beautiful. >> That's a nice ring. >> You awaken something in me, Gus.

[39:10] Rivian. This one is already moving the market today and I'm happy about it is going to pan out well for me. They have raised their delivery outlook on the year from 60 up to 65,000 to 70,000 electric vehicles. They said that they

[39:24] delivered 12,613 vehicles in Q2. Uh and are expecting yeah to fall in that 65 to 70 range through the end of the year. Uh they through the end of the year. Uh they delivered 12,194 of those vehicles. I

[39:36] 500. Slight overprouction, I suppose. Uh and yeah, they said the higher delivery is driven by their electric delivery van. I I have been seeing those uh Amazon Rivian vans around here in Chicago, I will say. Oh, yeah. Uh and

[39:48] are quiet. >> They're so quiet. >> they're all over my neighborhood now. And like you just I hear the doorbell comes in my driveway cuz I'm like kind of set back in the woods. You can hear

[40:01] sudden the doorbell rings. I'm like, "Who is that? What's that?" [laughter] Amazon truck." >> I like it. So, wait guys, why are you permable in Rivian? Give me your backtory. Uh well I I initially formed

[40:15] this thesis uh pre-liberation day last year as all the tariffs were were falling into place and I realized that Rivian is full US production. They have no reliance on anywhere outside of the United States for production. So as

[40:27] there were tariff fears mounting I began to like them. But as I just began to dig in more and more and think about it, I think Rivian is perfectly poised to fill what I believe to be a void in the electric vehicle space for luxury EVs

[40:40] because Tesla initially was very much a a luxury vehicle. Uh they were they were expensive. But now that Tesla has, you dollar company fully has fully achieved

[40:52] gigafactories all over the place. Teslas are becoming much much cheaper. And I think that two, three, five years from now, as Tesla production continues to increase, as they continue to get prices down, we see Tesla sort of fill a Honda,

[41:05] Toyota, Nissan sort of void in the market as becoming the the budget, the families. And I think that leaves a void for luxury EVs. And I think that Rivian long as we continue to push back on letting any of these Chinese EVs in to

[41:21] I just think Rivian is is really well situated. I I I I don't I don't I'm not bankrupt or or just completely blowing up or anything like that. They're well yeah, I think people are there's there's going to be a desire for 50 and $60,000

[41:37] EVs that's not going to be satiated by Tesla. And I think Rivian stands right >> I excellent, Gus. I didn't mean to put you on the spot. I'm bullish Rivian, narrative. [laughter] I like it. Now I'm even more bullish.

[41:49] >> there's really not. I mean like I we were looking at EVs last year like Audi were looking at EVs last year like Audi Q6 and those are 70 $80,000 in our area. okay so then the cheaper more affordable options maybe like the Toyota Highlander

[42:02] hybrid. It's nothing really there. I mean they're expensive but you do get good value for your money with all with all the things that they can do. Lots of lots of uh amenities, shall we say.

[42:15] potential Rivian trade. Liz, you and I should take a look at that after our brief break here. Gus, thanks for coming on with today's top movers, market movers, market news. What do we call the segment? It doesn't matter cuz we'll be

[42:28] back in 90 seconds. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[44:09] slacking off a little bit here. NASDAQ S&P only up by two ten of a percent. >> But it's a quiet day and I know someone who likes to trade quiet markets. [laughter] Chris, you know what that means, Liz? We got to say, God bless

[44:25] America. Land that I love. What's the What are the rest of the words? Stand her and guide her. D. So anyway, Fourth of July,

[44:38] um Liz, depressing issue of the day for me at least is how does Will Ferrell handle fireworks? >> He does not handle it well. For those of dog and he is a pint-sized bird. He's [laughter] a He is a res He's a little

[44:53] black rescue that thinks he is 450 pounds and will me as such. So he does not like fireworks. >> He Yeah. So, as I was telling Chris yesterday or a couple days ago, 80, you know, Liz, everything I do is in

[45:07] know, Liz, everything I do is in percent. So, 80% of my dogs hate them. They [clears throat] vibrate in fear. Just they quiver. >> Do you have five dogs? >> Yeah, I have five dogs now.

[45:20] >> And so, Slim is the only dog that doesn't care. Slim just hears a firework. And he's he's the big dog. >> That's why Slim is my favorite. >> That's why Slim is my favorite. >> Yeah, Slim. Slim is Slim is my counter

[45:33] back issues, he's a great You don't have to bend down to pet him. Flynn doesn't care. The the little saltine or pitbull, our little white pitbull, she just quivers. The 4th of July is that New Year's down here in Texas, people shoot

[45:48] off fireworks. Is the worst day. So, I'm not looking forward to the 4th of July. Well, personally, I mean, I love the I love the celebrated. I get it. I get it. no fireworks for me. >> Yeah. Oh, no. We've got fireworks all

[46:03] over the neighborhood. My dog will really get mad. He tries to fight fireworks. He will try to fight everything. So, it's going to be great. >> The best the best place to celebrate Fourth of July is in London,

[46:16] >> Oh, there you go. >> Oh, so you can you can stick it you can stick it in the eye of the Brits. They they do fireworks over the temps every year and you could just walk around and be like, "You're welcome for saving you

[46:31] [laughter] because of World War II." You're welcome. You're welcome. You're >> Aren't you glad we got free? You're >> Yes, you can you can you can send cards and thank you notes to this address.

[46:45] [laughter] >> And so, full disclosure, yeah, my uh I had to cover some short um uh British pound calls that I had. I bought those back while I was waiting to be logged into

[46:59] the show. It's the Brits are sticking it to old TP. Um it's they I think they to old TP. Um it's they I think they know. I [laughter] think they know. And

[47:11] they're getting you back all these years later. Yeah, [laughter] exactly. Exactly. So the so the point is so the the British pound is rallying. I I asked going on with some like the British pound? This seems to be catching a

[47:25] little bit of a bounce uh versus, let's say, the yen that's getting crushed, etc., etc. Um, you know, and it's all an interest rate thing, I guess. But the big news today is what are the SPs doing now? They were

[47:39] down earlier, by the way, about 12. >> They were right when I woke up. They 12. >> Yeah. So, the non-farm payrolls came out. Another kind of a a snoozer, I guess. I guess inflation isn't the isn't

[47:53] guess. I guess inflation isn't the isn't the isn't the big scary monster that it be. So, spoos are rallying on this. And this is saving as for now before the open. And we still have about 6 and 1/2 hours left for disaster to befall me.

[48:10] hours left for disaster to befall me. But I'm short um uh SMH put spread. So, I'm long SMH and it was looking ugly yesterday. It was looking >> Yesterday was brutal probably for you. >> SMH. Yeah, I'm short the 650. What is

[48:23] [clears throat] >> Yeah, I'm short the um >> I'm sitting 65. >> I'm short the 620 615 620 put spreads.

[48:35] >> Expiration is it today? >> It was today. This afternoon. So, it was looking ugly. And you know, Liz, I'm trading a lot more now of the >> by default zero DTE options that are out there in individual symbols.

[48:51] >> Well, TP, that's because you're a junkie like me. We can't stop. like me. We can't stop. >> No. And it's it's fun to and it's it's just fun to watch this stuff. And look, do you know I don't have it on its size.

[49:04] I'm not trading SMH in any kind of size. And so I can handle Yeah, it sucks. I don't want to lose on that put spread. Okay? I don't want to lose, you know, 400 bucks or whatever whatever the loss would be. But the point is I can handle

[49:19] it and it's I'm going to hang on to that trade cuz I cuz it's fun to watch. It gives me something to stare at. >> It's so true. It does give you something lose today. You could probably get out of it today. It's getting

[49:33] of it today. It's getting >> um I I don't know. It's six bucks away. SMH, >> SMH can move six bucks in five minutes can. It really can. But you're getting a reprieve today. You know, yesterday was

[49:49] little bit of a reprieve, but it's still anybody's game. >> Um, so yeah, so yesterday what I had done is I sold or over the past couple of days is I just pulled up, you know, the mag seven stocks and they were

[50:05] expiring and weekly option all this stuff. created a lot of one zero and one day option expirations. >> I don't necessarily care why they come up. It's just they do. And so, you know, everybody's talking about zero DTE. Love

[50:19] zero DTE, but those are zero. The zero DTE that we talk about typically in the DTE that we talk about typically in the S&P are zero DTE by design. They are S&P are zero DTE by design. They are created to have zero days. Liz, you've

[50:32] seen zero DTE options forever. They're called expiration. called expiration, month, we'd get a zero DTE, >> right? And we didn't I never thought though thought thought of them as such. Um, but so now it's with weekly options,

[50:47] the daily ups, all these little things added by the exchanges. Bravo to the added by the exchanges. Bravo to the CBOE for pushing all this stuff out and adding strikes and all that expirations, all that stuff. Um, I've been trading a

[50:59] lot of those like in Tesla or in Amazon or whatever is selling little put spreads. I don't get huge credits for them and I'm just bullish. Okay, don't get huge credits, but the return on capital is big for one day.

[51:16] because this is I've been leaning in that direction as well. It's just interesting because I'd rather do the nearer term, meaning zero day, 1 day, days. Kind of looking at it's like, okay, the return on capital is a little

[51:28] bit different, but I'd rather have my $50 in 4 days than $2 in 45 days. So too. It's this they they've changed the game on us with where where it is more kind of instant gratification whether you win or not or you roll it until

[51:43] >> This roll until you're right. >> Roll this. This reminds me of the conversation Chris and I had I think it was either earlier this week or last old futures trader, >> the turtle trader,

[51:57] >> right? The turtle trader. And I remember reading when I was when I was a youth um reading about Richard Dennis cuz this and this was guys this was when we had things called books. Okay now I don't know you probably heard in online

[52:12] discussions maybe Wikipedia what a book is but a book is something you went to the library and pulled out about trading. Okay. And so they were usually >> Dewey decimal system with the dewy >> dewy decimal system. Thank you Liz.

[52:25] Thank you Liz. Dewey decimal system for the trading section. I would go there as the trading section. I would go there as a kid. Um anyway, he Richard Dennis the the line I remember is traders are like baby ducks mo or I should say most

[52:39] traders are like baby ducks. A baby duck is hatched and the first thing it sees is its mother. If it sees a battleship, it will think it's its mother and will follow that battleship all around the world. Okay. Same thing with trading.

[52:53] world. Okay. Same thing with trading. trader a new trader's first big win. Oh, trader a new trader's first big win. Oh, that's how I make money. And that is the absolute worst thing to learn >> is. And I've Liz, you guys, I have seen

[53:07] >> is. And I've Liz, you guys, I have seen this happen dozens of times from people. slap me on the wrist cuz I I did this yesterday and it's probably a shame on me situation, but I've got a daughter that's trading now and I needed her to

[53:19] get really engaged. So, I did a Super Bowl in the SPX0 DTE and made her watch it. Made her watch the closing print tick for me on in SPX and now she's lot for a kid. >> Of course. Of course. But how many kids

[53:35] >> Exactly. >> Sure. Okay. She could get smoked on the trade. I get it. She could have >> I was like sitting there going, "Please go up. Just go up." And >> it happens. It happens, Liz. that

[53:50] exactly these and I this is [laughter] those are my breadand butter trades that's what's paying the bills for for me but the point is yeah it's you got to

[54:02] be adaptable and it's the people who aren't adaptable who don't take geez zero DT well I don't like zero DTS I've been selling them at like zero DTS I've been selling them at 45 days forever you no that's that's

[54:15] 45 days forever you no that's that's just dumb and you got to play the game that's presented to you. >> You do I going to say I was at the SIBO. This was a months ago and I ran into an old

[54:28] like, Liz, he's like, I can't even believe how awesome these zero DTE are. He's like, I go fishing. I go boating. I do everything. I'm done for the day. I'm their rafters. I wish everybody could do this. He's like, I go on vacation and I

[54:41] I'm done. I'm done for the day after this. He's like, these are the greatest things ever ever created. I was like, yeah, I get it. Yeah. I mean, I get it. Except they are addictive. >> Oh, yeah. [laughter]

[54:53] >> Yeah. So, I'm not I'm not going to fishing. Where's my next zero DTE? >> Tomorrow, right? >> What is the opening bell? Bonds. What doing? >> You are a resident bond trader.

[55:08] >> Uh, they are off a little bit. You know, that's one of the, you know, two, look along the curve. So, like two-year notes, those are still up on the day. Uh, you look to the 10-year, those are down a touch.

[55:21] down a touch. >> Down a tick. >> And >> DP, it's an early close today. >> What when is the actual close, Chris? >> Uh, 1 central. So, technically still

[55:37] correct at 2 Eastern. >> So, two, right? By by the by Chris's >> So, two, right? By by the by Chris's actual time, the real time is East Coast grew up. And this whole thing about like

[55:50] m I still can't get mountain time. So, what's interesting about ZBS and ZN's what's interesting about ZBS and ZN's right now or today is that finally bonds are having a much bigger move than the notes. And that's something we haven't

[56:05] seen. Typically, you'll see them move two to bonds will move two times what notes do uh two and a half maybe three times sometimes. But over the past couple of weeks, and I know Ilia has been looking at this too, is notes have

[56:20] been been more volatile. Notes have had sometimes bigger moves, bigger price changes than bonds. And that's I that's unusual. That's why I was leaning on uh trading notes a little bit more cuz the

[56:33] volatility was was increased a little bit. Um but today, yeah, it's 11:1. Now, I don't I'm not saying it's 11 to1 because notes could tick down another >> right? >> So, I don't I don't like, oh, 11:1 move,

[56:48] but there's no question that now to or today at least, bonds are showing a >> Do you ever do you ever do a pair trade between the notes and bonds? >> I do a pair trade between the two given the volatility?

[57:02] >> Oh, 100% 100%. That's that's one thing that I'm always looking for is looking at the volatility ratio between the notes and the bonds and seeing which one is relatively cheap or relatively expensive.

[57:17] Folks, it doesn't mean the options are mispriced. It doesn't mean they're wrong. That's not what I'm getting at here. What I'm saying is that sometimes here. What I'm saying is that sometimes the volatility in notes or bonds can get

[57:31] a little can get a little bit over its skis as it were can get a little bit high relative to maybe where it should be. So I will sell the high product. In this case I'll sell strangles in notes and buy straddles in bonds. For example,

[57:47] if I saw note volatility being high relative to bonds, I'll sell I'll um uh [clears throat] sell strangles in ZN, buy straddles in ZB or strangles in ZB

[57:59] and I structure it so I get a credit. >> Nice. So, you're not doing the the knob spread notes over bonds. You're doing >> I don't do that as futures. It's not a trade. >> Yeah, I like it. And and TP, you pointed

[58:13] platform, if you're looking at ZB or ZN, you could just head over to that trade tab here. Uh IVX on the right hand side, you could see ZB is sitting at 8.6. I'm at the 22 uh days to expiration cycle here. Um we go over into ZN. It's only

[58:27] specific ratio that you look at for the volatility there between notes and that wheel? >> Yeah, that's so so the benchmark because Chris, I don't know. Okay. I don't I don't work for the Treasury. I don't

[58:43] even I don't work for a big bank. I don't know. My benchmark is I go to CME Treasury Analytics and I look at the dollar value of one tick, the DV1 number

[58:56] for notes for the 30-year bonds and the 10-year notes. And typically the DV1 is about 2 and 12 times um bigger in the bonds versus the notes typically. Okay,

[59:09] about about that ratio. >> Um I would expect volatility to be roughly that ratio too. So when I see it trading around this is a little um

[59:21] little under two right now. To me notes look expensive versus bonds. That's it. >> And I'm not doing Chris. I'm not doing this with size. I'm not I'm not I'm trading one lots in these stupid things. >> Oh, you're big by big. You're huge.

[59:35] >> No, I know. But but I I do size and other things. And yeah, I will have maybe bigger directional trades in notes or something like that. But for this volat this volatility trade, this this volatility is dispersion trade, whatever

[59:50] you want to call it. I'm doing one long or or I do the ratio, you know, 2 to >> not the big volume here. By the way, Frank just flagged this for us in the Frank just flagged this for us in the zero DTE for ZN the 10975 strike. Uh we

[1:00:03] have 55,987 of the calls that have traded today. They were mostly closing though with open interest of 48,000. Who owns that many 10 years is [laughter]

[1:00:16] because when you do the volume, you got to look at it versus the open interest probably the closing trades. >> But you know, it's a good time to go to that opening bell where we are getting the first prince here. 7557

[1:00:29] 7558 S&P holding on to its modest gains. Premarket 15 points, we'll call it 10 slouching back into negative territory off by 70 points about uh one quarter of a percent to the downside. Volatility

[1:00:42] to creep back down towards 16. It's currently 1614 right now. Basically at the lows off 45 cents. Where else to look? We can talk about gold prices run today. 4125, although they are off the highs. Uh, I'm going to go to the

[1:00:58] just filling out the start of the day as we get into the day here, of course, but of the usual suspects. Tesla had their delivery numbers come out this morning. That's why we got that share price bump all the way up to 438. But Liz, I'm

[1:01:13] start the day. Now, we're live in the market. We have 6 and 1/2 hours to go. There are no meaningful serious catalysts. TP is this a day where you go out there and say short iron condors in the big indexes what am I really worried

[1:01:28] the big indexes what am I really worried about here holidays around the corner about here holidays around the corner >> 100% and and this is this is Chris this this is an important point is we can come to this trade from a bunch of

[1:01:42] different angles you can look at it and look at the data look at the numbers here's what you how you're going to position to it position it Liz can just say I see volatility at such and such, right?

[1:01:54] >> I look at it and say it's just the discipline of doing this this strategy every single day. So yeah, I'm going to go and sp0 sell my iron condors. I know Liz does similar stuff. I go much further out than Liz does.

[1:02:08] am. >> Yeah. So I'm I and and here's here's my thing and I know this is probably heresy to to a lot of people. I don't

[1:02:20] necessarily base it on the probability numbers or even the volatility numbers, the IV. [clears throat] Um, I look at price because I know the three of us, as much as we think about in terms of percentages, we pay the bills in

[1:02:34] dollars, not percentages. So, >> I I need to collect a certain amount of money for the risk I'm taking. So, and here and and Liz, you know, [clears throat] I speaking for myself, I'm not the sharpest tool in the

[1:02:48] myself, I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed or traders, we needed something shed or traders, we needed something easy and quick. And for me, when I just look at a bunch of random option prices, when the puts are equal to the call

[1:03:01] prices, that to me is what the market says the potential range is. How much how big can this thing move today? So, I'm going to sell $2 calls, $2 puts, and buy strikes 25 bucks out. >> Yeah. So, so TP is very aggressive with

[1:03:16] this. He goes pretty far. Aggressive meaning you're wide, so you're taking on you can go with the with the cost. And meaning or whatever time the market opens, where you are, it's 9:30, Chris,

[1:03:28] wait until 9:00? >> No, I'll do it I'll do it at 9:00, but just cuz and and guys, it's nothing that I know. And Liz, I think Chris, it's not that we don't know, right? It's just looking at some of the statistics. We've

[1:03:42] done a lot of research on this and it's just 9:00 is kind of the Okay, fine. lot of research on this. People way smarter than me. They have put a lot of

[1:03:54] manhour into this saying that 9:00 is the sweet spot, give or take 5 minutes stuff can shake out. You'll see some movement and things things can kind of >> You got to get through the first 30 minutes of the day. Yeah.

[1:04:07] >> Yeah. And and and and to that, you know, hey, Chris, and just really quickly, Chris, to the question where who's buying all those or who's trading all buying all those or who's trading all those at the money ZN's ZB has none of

[1:04:19] that volume. >> Okay. The at the money ZBs are trading a couple of thousand, which is typical. I think a lot of that activity is in the housing sector, the mortgage mortgage sector.

[1:04:33] And again, this is just pure speculation, but but I do know that the ZN's are still the benchmark uh rate for the housing sector. I think it might be the housing sector. I think it might be mortgage people unwinding stuff.

[1:04:48] trade looks like here, TP, because the expected move through the end of the day in S&P is only about 30 points. We'll call it 29 or so. Mhm. >> And I know you talked about going out wide here, but I'm looking at what just

[1:05:00] here for a second to keep it simple for the folks on the platform. That's that not the it's the looser dashed, wider dashed dotted line. I don't know how we standard deviation move for today. >> Going right in there is giving you a 92%

[1:05:14] probability of profit risking fourish to five to make. >> That's terrible. >> I like that a lot. Let's get that going >> you're double you're almost a double standard deviation away on both sides

[1:05:26] >> and you're 4 to1 at a 90% probability of profit. Like, if I'm wrong on that, been something else that happened today. >> And it's I'm not and and yeah, it's it's

[1:05:38] look, we don't know that the S&Ps are going to land in that range. I don't know. But here's the thing. I from my own trading, you you put in what' you sell it for? 90 >> marking 90.

[1:05:53] >> Yes. So, you're risking about $400. >> All right. So, if you So, I would enter a GTC to buy it back for 45. >> Mhm. >> And see if I can get filled before 11:00 a.m. A lot of time a lot of times I'm

[1:06:05] filled before 10. >> Oh god. Yes. I mean, with with times you are filled before 10 because time passes, vault comes out. It >> Time passes, V comes out. TP. Um, we only have a few minutes left with you in

[1:06:19] terms of single stock names today. Uh, Mag 7 a little bit mixed. Met is coming right here. Are do you find anything interesting at the open in any of these mag seven names? >> SMH is backed down. SMH is IS KILLING

[1:06:34] >> NO, THEY'VE GOT YOUR number euros. Which one's going to take you out first? >> No fireworks for Tom Preston this one. Um, individual stocks. I'm not. Let's

[1:06:46] see. What's Tesla doing? Uh Tesla's down. Nvidia has to be down, too. No, it's up a little bit. I'm already short some put spreads in in there. How about Apple? Um Apple's Apple's up. Um MSFT.

[1:07:03] MSFT is up. A lot of sort of the standard ones are up in in Microsoft. I would I would sell a zero DTE put

[1:07:15] spread in Microsoft. I would sell >> I mean I've I've been doing it every because Microsoft will have zero day two day zero day two day. I've been doing it >> and the and the the Apple options the zero DTE Apple options are actually

[1:07:29] pretty liquid. Um I would sell put spreads in in those stocks. I think I July rally in some of those bigger names. That would be quite the you know listen some of my longer term stuff would

[1:07:42] deltas in Apple if that's where it's going. TP, but that's that's usually the case when things go up. I'm always like, I just [laughter] uh Liz, you and I are going to be having a conversation with uh a gentleman here

[1:07:56] shortly on the show right after we take a a brief break as it were. Uh we're Jonathan Mulchin, head of ETF trading over at Shelton's Option Management. TP, thank you for your time in the box. I'm going to see you later today. You and I

[1:08:11] this morning once Liz leaves. >> Yes sir, Senator. >> And until then, Tasty Live will be back in 90 seconds. in 90 seconds. >> All right, TP, have a good holiday.

[1:08:30] Taking off strategies, that's also pretty easy. But what do you do with options crash course strategy series, we're going to show you how to handle to handle the losers. But most importantly, we're going to show you how

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[1:09:05] between the numbers. [music] Some watch from the safety of the sidelines, but others saddle up and ride sidelines, but others saddle up and ride that one ton rowdy ribeye for all he's

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[1:11:34] Mulchin, the head of ETF trading at Shelton's Option Management, come on the show. You and I can talk about this open a little bit more here and get ready for some potential trade opportunities. One thing in particular, our friend Gus was

[1:11:48] here, your son came on the show this [laughter] morning to talk about Rivian, for example, how it's in the news. Both Tesla and Rivian had their delivery >> Hold on, [laughter] hold on. I'm letting cat out of the bag. His own mother

[1:12:00] texted said she watched the show and he does look a little bit more like me than he does her. Just a little FYI, >> which [laughter] is pretty good. Rivian little bit over the course of the day and we're seeing it break to the top of

[1:12:14] testing the highest level that we've seen since mid January here. Uh I was maybe there is an opportunity here to take advantage of this environment. I'm trade if Rivian is indeed finally breaking out. Um, first point of

[1:12:29] consideration, IVR is near 61, but the raw volatility at 75 out at 50 days. work around that. >> It's very, very, very rich. And I mean,

[1:12:41] at Rivian with the 60 IVR earnings are on the horizon, but if you look, if you don't mind, and then I'll let you do your trade trade setup for sure. But if Rivian, so I'm doing probably the exact

[1:12:54] it. But I would get in this aggressively with e you can even go shorter term and money call for some premium because then you you're just kind of chasing it up great then you sell calls against it and you keep kind of going that way. No the

[1:13:09] puts I would sell aggressive puts >> puts sorry I would sell maybe the 18 and a half or 18 you're get the return on capital for these is is great. You're putting up about $700 to make a dollar in 15 days. in 15 days. That's, you

[1:13:23] that's a shorter time horizon than what I want to work with here. Um, if only want to give this thing time to breathe, right? We got to let this decant a little bit here, Liz. So, uh, the level that we have working with the most

[1:13:36] recent swing levels are near 14. I'm looking out at this. We'll go to 50 here. That's close to the typical tasty 45 and 21 out, right? Um, 1413 bracketing that near the one standard deviation move. Uh, it's not quite the

[1:13:49] maybe we can work with something. We could poke around here. Maybe it's not could poke around here. Maybe it's not 50 days. Maybe we need to go into do we want to do right on the other side of the options uh the earnings? Probably

[1:14:01] not. 29 might be the best bet. 15 14. >> It's it's very but in this product. So, this product, sometimes sometimes the common sense slide, you're not going to So, here you almost have to have a naked position in there and be willing to take

[1:14:15] these lower priced products. And I'm still using it as a lower price. Even still using it as a lower price. Even though it's 18, I mean, when it was 14, get yourself that far out of the way. You're not going to get that much

[1:14:27] premium. 20 cents isn't bad. >> 20 cents risking 80 on a 92% probability of profit. >> I mean, I I signed up for that kind of >> everybody's got their own trading style, and I'm I'm I'm definitely a lot more

[1:14:42] that, too. He he he structures his very similar to yours. I'm more I will bring things up. I like to collect a lot um because I like to get out quicker. So by me the fact that I can get out quicker. But but everybody's got their own

[1:14:56] >> yeah, and that's one of the benefits of like taking profit at 50%. Right? If you're in a 45 and 21 out and you get to 50% within the next, say the first week, >> why spend the next month waiting to get the next 50%. Take it off. Go into the

[1:15:11] you again as opposed to just sitting there. That's a mistake that I have made this position is now up at 80% max profit. I've got 300 days to expiration.

[1:15:23] It's like, no, I should take that money out and redeploy the capital elsewhere more aggressive. It's just a mental check for me, right? So, if I'm sometimes I'll take 40%. If I'm bringing it up and I'm taking, you know, if I'm

[1:15:36] getting a$110, I'll take it off for 30 40%. Because because I can, right? So, you can get out if you're a little bit more aggressive. But I don't I I don't

[1:15:48] but I think to each his own. I think there is no right or wrong. Yours is depends on your risk tolerance. slightly as we make our way through this day. up 35 points now in the S&P 500

[1:16:01] just knocking on the door of half a percent here. Hey Liz, uh we finally have our guest in here right now. We're going to talk a little bit about ETF trading and volatility. Uh you know, great guest for this morning here as

[1:16:13] weekend. ETFs have become a default wrapper of sorts for basically commodities, crypto, volatility, single stock exposure, active management, the point. There's just so many different ETFs for things now, but once

[1:16:29] options enter the picture, the ETF um becomes a structured trade itself. Mulchin right now. He's a perfect guest for this conversation. He's the head of ETF trading for Shelton's options management, and his work sits at this

[1:16:41] overlays, portfolio construction, volatility, income generation, and that's really why we want to have this conversation. How does a wrapper around an ETF behave? Why is there a trade-off between income and upside in some of

[1:16:55] these products? And when does selling volatility make sense? So, joining us now, Jonathan Moltch, head of ETF trading, Shelton's Option Management. >> It's great to be here. Thank you for having me.

[1:17:07] >> Jonathan, let's start with the ETF rapper itself. ETFs started all these years ago as simple index tracking vehicles. spy the spiders for the S&P 500, but today they're used a bit more for tactical trading, hedging, income

[1:17:21] generation, volatility exposure. When you look at ETFs today, what are traders the ETFs, the liquidity of the underlying basket, the options market around it, or maybe even the strategies embedded within the products themselves.

[1:17:37] embedded within the products themselves. >> Sure. So I think at the um the base foundation of understanding ETF liquidity, the liquidity is actually in the underlying securities of the fund, not necessarily in the spread that you

[1:17:52] see on a screen if you're looking at your Charles Schwab or your Robin Hood your Charles Schwab or your Robin Hood account. Um so ETFs utilizing options that traffic in these highly liquid indices S&P the NASDAQ um are quite

[1:18:08] liquid. um the uh instruments the derivative instruments tied to them are also equally as liquid and I think that offers investors a really great opportunity to look beyond traditional sources of yield um to ETFs that

[1:18:24] leverage options to kind of supplement cash flow needs outside of uh traditional alts or fixed income. >> So how do you operate an environment right now or at least let's take a step back. How should investors or traders

[1:18:39] think about the tradeoff in option income ETFs? What are they giving up in yield? >> The uh the the birth of these instruments is at a confluence of like very interesting

[1:18:55] market conditions as rates continued to slide in the early uh 201s. Uh optionsbased products came to market. Uh if you look at the delta between a passive covered call and an underlying index, uh those were largely pretty

[1:19:09] tight uh back into the '90s when the CBOE created these. But once you saw interest rates start creeping to two and below and they were suppressed for such a long time, people needed to kind of explore options as a another uh piece of

[1:19:24] equipment in the toolbox to generate that cash flow. The interesting part is that when rates remained low, the outperformance of the equity markets really picked up. So you saw a divergence in returns. And I think now

[1:19:39] as we've come about 15 years from that point in time, uh it is now more so instead of just diversifying yield from traditional fixed income, uh looking at

[1:19:51] covered calls, call spreads, callers as a way to diversify out from REITs, uh a way to diversify out from REITs, uh MLPS, preferred, you name it. uh that MLPS, preferred, you name it. uh that people uh back to your first point are

[1:20:04] now looking at ETFs for a solution rather than just blanket exposure and I think that's where we're seeing the ETF market go in utilizing derivatives on a on a broader uh scale I think so go ahead

[1:20:17] at your LinkedIn profile and my favorite quote and not a quote but what you wrote was the first thing first phase was see was to see if options would catch on and I love it because I'm an old school option trader and options on ETFs I

[1:20:30] think are an absolute gamecher. So it is interesting listening to you with your the transgression on how it all came about. So I do think options have caught on. >> They definitely have and I think as they

[1:20:44] continue to become more uh common tools in portfolios. It's it's critically important for the end investor to focus on what their objective or outcome is with each strategy. uh you know a key metric to look at is what does the total

[1:21:01] return look like relative to the benchmark. If you're if uh you're picking up a 10 or a 20% yield but uh ETF is returning 8% obviously there's something to dig in there and understand what you're buying. Um I also think the

[1:21:17] sustainability of yield is not spoken about enough. Um and in a environment where people are using these as portfolio solutions, it's important to

[1:21:29] understand that options can be used for three things. Yield enhancement, downside mitigation or leverage. And you know that it's important to keep the eye component and how that can benefit and

[1:21:44] investors portfolios. >> You know for the tasty audience I think traders can express their view and we see them S&P, XSP, SPY, triple Q's, IDM, sector ETFs, but each ETF has a different tax treatment, settlement,

[1:21:59] liquidity, assignment risk, and product behavior. So, when do you think a trader should be using index options versus say ETF options or when does an optionsbased ETF make sense more than trading the options themselves directly?

[1:22:12] >> So, the benefit of the ETF wrapper is it's a package solution. So all of those individual options trades are wrapped in there. Um the end user does not have to worry about going out and doing that on their own. Uh another benefit of active

[1:22:26] management is that it is not a passive uh approach so that there is a more uh approach so that there is a more dynamic uh functionality within the ETF. And then obviously the key to ETFs in general are the tax efficiencies of

[1:22:40] that. And so when you package index options, which are European 1256 contracts into an ETF, you also benefit from the potential uh 60% long-term, 40%

[1:22:52] short-term capital gains treatment on positive P&L. So the it's it's kind of a positive P&L. So the it's it's kind of a perfect storm of um an outcome, a solutions-based uh approach, but also that tax efficiency because at the end

[1:23:06] of the day when you get your 1099, that's uh that's a pretty big important decision. >> Agreed. Agreed. That's a good that's a good that's a good statement there, >> Liz. Uh a great conversation here. Lots

[1:23:21] lots of different products. certainly no longer just spy and triple Q out there. ETF trading, Shelton's Option Management. Jonathan, thank you for joining us here live on Tasty Live. >> Thank you, Christopher. Thank you, Liz.

[1:23:35] >> Liz, uh S&P 500 7591 right now, 48 points and firming up as the session goes on. You made quite the premonition earlier. VIX was going to drop below 16 today and indeed 1581. This would be the lowest close that we've seen in the VIX

[1:23:49] going back to we'll call it early June right now. And sure enough, volatility futures as we go to the VXN contract down at 177 almost 1776. >> Yeah, 1776. There you go. So, you know

[1:24:03] what though? We need to bring Jonathan back on because the market loved him. I interrupt him. [clears throat] >> I should have put more longs on before >> you hear while he was talking the dings that were going off on my computer.

[1:24:18] >> I'm like, is that me? What am I? Oh, it's Liz. What is she doing? Why is she Liz, we're going to take a brief break here. We'll be back in 90 seconds. Uh we next here on Tasty Live. We're going to be doing a quick scalping volatility

[1:24:33] check with Errol and then we have some confirm and send coming your way. confirm and send coming your way. >> Stay tuned.

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[1:27:11] scalping and volatility check with our man in the studio. Errol is here. Errol, welcome to the Thunderdome. Morning. >> Two men enter, one man leaves.

[1:27:23] >> Could only be one. >> Good morning, Chris. Liz, always good to see you guys. Hope you're doing well, especially after the USA win last night. Oh, sorry. USA. >> USA. There we And I see I see what you

[1:27:35] the Knicks. Shout out to USA. Hopefully go pretty far. Shout out to Mexico, too. so got USA and Mexico. Hopefully they go pretty far. It'll be a fun one. Uh, but Uh, NASDAQ was a little bit of a slower week. I know we had a little bit of a a

[1:27:51] we have Fourth of July this weekend, so the market will be closed this Friday. Um, but for this week and anybody else that was scalping alongside with us, uh, Uh, we had a little bit of action Monday, a little bit of action Tuesday,

[1:28:07] little bit of action Wednesday. Uh, yeah, Wednesday. Uh, and then, you the board for today, but we took about 10 trades. Uh, within those 10 trades, I 10 trades. Uh, within those 10 trades, I believe we took about six six losses,

[1:28:22] we had about three or four winners there. um we were able to scoop out about 302 points out of the market and although it was a very slower trading opportunity was still there if you were if you were patient. So I think in a

[1:28:36] lower volume, it just really teaches you to sit on your hands and really pick your spots a little bit more. Um and then surprisingly yesterday, uh the ES I know a lot of the times you usually have two types of traders, NASDAQ

[1:28:49] traders or ES traders. And I got to ask you, uh, Chris and Liz, do you guys prefer NASDAQ or do you prefer ES? Obviously, two highly correlated products, but what's your personality type and what do you like to trade?

[1:29:02] >> old school. Okay. >> Yeah. Not me. ES. >> ES. Oh, my bad. My bad. My bad. [laughter] What about you, Chris? >> I've probably traded ES more, but I kind of do like a core satellite approach

[1:29:15] >> It's like I take the sectors that are on fire in the NASDAQ, and that's what I also trade. So it's like plus >> SMH for example. >> It seems like especially over the last 5 years it seems that NASDAQ is becoming a

[1:29:27] anybody that's got in the market over like the I'd say the last five years. Have you guys kind of noticed that? >> Oh for sure. Listen, every generation the Dow. Why is that right? >> Give me a little bit of give me a little

[1:29:41] market a little bit longer. You've seen these these phases in the market cycles. So why do you think one product starts to become a little bit more popular as >> I think it becomes liquid. I think I think I I actually think trading follows

[1:29:57] know, you watch just like I mean I'm going to use GME. It's not it's not an index and I'm I'm well aware of that. But just like when GME was the meme everybody was trading it. So when it becomes hot, then it just becomes

[1:30:09] Unfortunately, because of that, I will always have GME on my watch list for no that's >> why do I care what Wendy's and AMC are >> Right. >> Yes. Correct. So it it just kind of

[1:30:24] falls that way. But I mean honestly old school I'm not a boomer. I'm almost don't look at the Dow at all. >> Actually neither neither of you guys are don't have as many people in their 50s and 60s above you guys anymore, but

[1:30:40] aren't the old heads. So don't get it twisted. You guys are still >> You guys still have that youth in their >> I am still in my 40s for a couple >> There we go. Jokingly jokingly when I was a kid, my little brother

[1:30:53] every everybody's a young in here. So I I don't want to feel that boomer energy. anybody. And to my to my mom, >> it's a state of mind. It's a state of still says to this day, "Oh, I'm 28." One time when we were kids, my little

[1:31:06] right?" And she was like, "Yeah, we'll stick with that." So it's a running [laughter] joke. I like it. I like it. Uh but yeah, no, with that being said, this week. Surprisingly, a little bit more volatility to the upside on NASDAQ.

[1:31:19] know we're kind of pulling back a little bit here now over the last 12 hours. Um creeping back up towards that uh NASDAQ high. I I think another all-time high is

[1:31:31] personally am not a fan of trading all-time highs, but you got to ride the market gives you. Uh, but it still seems like it's right around the corner, but pulling up there. Um, but it kind of looks like we're sitting in the middle

[1:31:45] of that range from that swing high and swing low. So, I'll be a little patient start Q3. I don't know if you guys have any thoughts on NASDAQ. I know we're trading pretty close towards those high there, Chris. Um, but

[1:31:58] Chris Veio. I've been spending a lot of time with Chris Veio Day. And so I am going [laughter] >> I am going into July with eyes wide open >> I love it. I [laughter] love it. Optimistic especially with USA about to

[1:32:13] win this World Cup. You know, I'm feeling the same way. >> Yeah. I mean, I just Errol, you you look at technical analysis bottom left to top right into a triangle after a rally is usually continuation to the upside here

[1:32:26] and volumes are low and there's positive technical drift and we're in the middle there's no >> it's a good point. It's great point. right? The market has clearly and this has been a huge problem. People have

[1:32:40] April lows >> 100%. Uh, real quick, Chris, I know we really want to get your thoughts on oil. Uh, I want to get on a little bit long >> Say that again. >> No, [laughter]

[1:32:55] >> I neither do I. I have I have a little bit of long delta on an oil right now. So, I got to admit put on USO. I also just purchased a long contract on MCL last night. I think right now we're down about maybe like 2030 bucks. So the

[1:33:10] considering we're sitting at the lows right now, I'm thinking, are we going to kind of fundamental action should we at least keep our eyes on to gauge the behavior of oil and what it might want to do next? [sighs and gasps]

[1:33:23] >> All right, >> this refilling of the SPRS, I've been are slowly putting out there. >> Yeah, per day in additional demand for the next two years.

[1:33:35] >> It's a much smaller number than I thought it would be. Okay. >> And so that that puts us into for next year then a 2 million barrel per day >> Okay. >> Oh

[1:33:48] bit more context to the overall happens at the war, the front month's going to bounce. >> But if these analyst estimates are increasing or are correct in this post

[1:34:01] Iran war world, >> then um I'm remiss to say that we should be thinking about like $50 oil again. I got you. Uh, the past month, but nothing changes my mind like price action, Earl. And I'm

[1:34:13] >> Nothing changes my mind like price action. That's the statement of the with me. So, >> Errol, thanks for joining us. Errol scalping volatility. And we're going to take where do we go next from here? I

[1:34:28] for this market right now? >> He's here next. Errol, thanks so much. We're going to take a brief break. Uh Tim Knights coming up next here on Tasty Life.

[1:34:49] Keep an eye out for them when you open your trade. They're fast, they're loose, and they can take you for a wild ride. But that's no reason to steer clear earnings event if you take the bull by the horns. What makes earnings event so

[1:35:03] special? Before the event, people will start guessing how the stock will move once the earnings report is released. That in turn makes the options IV rank That in turn makes the options IV rank higher, like way way higher. The nearer

[1:35:16] the event, the more the speculation, the higher the IV rank. Then right after the event, IVR goes the way of the buffalo. If you sell high premium options right before the event, when IVR is really high, you can take advantage of inflated

[1:35:30] prices and lock your profits when volatility disappears. [music] Only if, and this is a big if, the stock doesn't move against you. If it does, sometimes the bear eats [music] you. Earnings events can hit you hard. They

[1:35:45] can also pay off big and fast if you play your cards right. Pretty simple. play your cards right. Pretty simple. [music]

[1:35:57] and I've got some bad news. Let's get that bad news out of the way first. you are going to have some losing trades. Like every trade you place, despite your extreme optimism that it's going to work out, it's not going to work out. That's

[1:36:11] the bad news. The good news, the good news is at Tasty Trade, man, we are ready to adjust and defend and roll our positions if that's [music] what it takes. And that's what this entire crash course is all about. A five episode

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[1:37:39] this morning's show. We're getting ready for a market closure for bonds in four hours, but stocks are going to be open a normal day. Uh, no one to bring in better than the man himself, Tim Knight, Tim.

[1:37:51] I regret to inform you. I do have to say this live on camera. Tim is one of my love doing segments with him. I love the wealth of information that you bring and every time I get to share a screen with Tim Knight.

[1:38:05] >> Wealth and perma bears rarely are said in the same breath. But thank you. Um so being a guest here. I'm just kind of showing up, you know, blur. In fact, I I

[1:38:17] the vernacular I guess would be party hair because it is quite early here on the left coast. So, um anyway, yes. So, we're all we're all tidy. Um >> second person on camera today to make a comment about bed head.

[1:38:33] >> I'm Yeah. No, go ahead. >> We're in the biggest heat wave this side of the Mississippi. If I step outside, my hair will come back like this. Well, I grew up in Louisiana and I think as a child when one is more impervious

[1:38:47] to the vissicitudes of weather and uh I I thought I was like didn't mean anything and as an as an older person now uh when I visited Austin um it was like good God almighty. So, because basically here in the Bay Area, it's 72°

[1:39:03] every single day. And you could tell me a date 100 years in the future, like a date 100 years in the future, like Tim, March [clears throat] 20th, 2164, and I could probably tell you that the weather, both temperature and

[1:39:15] weather, both temperature and precipitation with great accuracy. It is make a poly market for that. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, um, anyway, u, I my sympathy is on the heatwave, but that's the reason starter homes are $5 million

[1:39:29] >> Yeah. >> Um, and well, listen, I was, you know, >> Um, and well, listen, I was, you know, it was, uh, short as I am, uh, if I was going to name my portfolio after a Star Trek, uh, ship, it would be the USS

[1:39:44] Defiant because it's it's having none of this. Uh, I'm a I'm so short I could jump off a nickel. And in spite of the market being at record highs all over the place, it's down but just a little bit, which is fine by me. Uh yesterday

[1:39:58] few charts we can thumb through if that's of interest. >> Let's do it. >> Okay. Um the funny one for me was the >> Okay. Um the funny one for me was the was the Russell um futures. um because

[1:40:12] so here we have the RTY going back till the um to the bottom uh at the end of March and it's been it's been having this really interesting relationship it was steady as she goes it broke it here fell hard and then since then it's

[1:40:26] been playing jump rope with it and yesterday which is really atypical of me to do this cuz I'm usually you know short it and hope it holds on for a few months kind of guy. I don't do really short-term trades or anything, but

[1:40:39] yesterday based upon its [clears throat] strength and where it was in relation to this line, it was quite quite high yesterday. Uh I bought uh IWM301 puts that expired today. In other words, yesterday I bought puts that would have

[1:40:53] yesterday I bought puts that would have expired the next day and they did nicely. I got out with a 70% plus profit. At the end of the day, it was like 120% and I was I was I was upset at myself. I'm no longer upset. I'm glad I

[1:41:06] you know, better to be lucky than smart. sometimes thinks maybe there's something to this. Maybe I should do more of that interesting relationship cuz it's just it it's it's tighter and tighter and

[1:41:21] tighter is just clinging to that trend line as we move uh along in time. Kind of an interesting phenomena. Um, Meta was really cool yesterday because on the show yesterday I made mention that um,

[1:41:34] we're going to kind of lease out our AI infrastructure, which to me, you know, news. Hey, a new revenue stream. And I instant dark-hearted soul that I am, I instantly saw this as like, oh, that's a tacit

[1:41:49] AI space, so you got to sell out what you got. I I made a metaphor of like if I was going to be the the taco king in America, I was going to open up Tim's before I opened my first store, started selling taco shells and ground beef to

[1:42:05] to anybody that would take uh that wanted them. Same deal. You're selling off the the the parts instead of the whole shmear. And so Meta had this explosive move yesterday. I shorted that sucker at a good price and it's down

[1:42:20] today pretty hard. is actually below yesterday's lows. So, that's going guys have been doing nothing but hammering out a series of lower highs. Bangd bang bang bang all along the way.

[1:42:32] You'll get these little spurts and then this bloody tooth bear shows up. Uh, in yesterday mirroring Meta's strength fell really

[1:42:45] mirroring Meta's strength fell really hard because one of SpaceX's key revenue streams in their perspectus was selling off access to their Colossus AI hypers scale infrastructure. And so it's like, ooh, we got competition now. So, uh,

[1:42:59] SpaceX basically undid all the goodness from Monday and Tuesday in in a single from Monday and Tuesday in in a single session. Um, the ENQ very rangebound still. We've been rangebound for weeks now, banging around in this. Uh, we're

[1:43:13] right now. So, don't feel bad if you have no idea what to do at this point because it's it's just a mess. Uh, I I I still doing my whole bottoms up thing. I still doing my whole bottoms up thing. I try to pick individual stuff. Um, SMH.

[1:43:27] Um, this one came terrifyingly close on Tuesday to violating its price gap because God is merciful. It did not. and it fell yesterday and today kind of steady as she goes. We basically kind of an inside day so far. Uh and then XL XLK

[1:43:43] which I came into the day which I shorted um [clears throat] um on this strength. I'm still in that position and we maybe a penny or two push past by that gap but between friends that's fine. Uh we'll consider that gap sealed.

[1:43:57] fine. Uh we'll consider that gap sealed. Um and a change of pace. A few long ideas for a change. Um, this one not a lot of people talking about KTOS. This warfare has basically fundamentally changed with drones and so forth. This

[1:44:10] is an interesting one to watch. It had an enormous run um in the months uh within and just after the war. It's it's burned off well more than half of its value. But long term, this is an interesting one worth watching. KOS

[1:44:24] um getting kind of in the vicinity of major support. Uh, one that's appealing major support. Uh, one that's appealing right this second is uh PACS PAX group. Um, and this one has just broken above this really nice inverted head and

[1:44:39] shoulders pattern. So, we're pushing higher on this. Um, and I think these are um I usually don't have any idea what these stocks do, but this one's I communities, but this is breaking to a lifetime high on a nice little pattern

[1:44:53] there. packs. And then an old favorite. Um, and I see these everywhere. Rivian. Um, this one, this one, yeah, it's having a really nice day. Uh, it's been a real squirrely creature because, as you can see, it has this whole series of

[1:45:08] bases and pops. So, it's like zoink zoink zoink zoink zo. So, it's a real trickster. It never really, you know, just fundamentally just uh moves higher and doesn't look back. But long term, as you can see, what have we got? Higher

[1:45:21] lows each time. Yes, it gets beaten down, but higher lows each time. And we've conquered this gap right here. So, this has pushed in a matter of days from around 14 to um gosh almost 20 at this point. And last last one, uh old Michael

[1:45:36] point. And last last one, uh old Michael Sailor. Uh here's strategy MSTR and uh I'm a crypto bear. And I I'm I'm probably getting kind of pretty itchy fingers right now to short this uh because we have had a he said a good

[1:45:49] week uh undoing a lot of the damage from the week prior. But I think we're at an important uh it's not major but important uh resistance point uh which could be for a interesting riskreward ratio if Bitcoin does resume its fall.

[1:46:04] >> You do you have any charts? I mean I know you just looked at MSTR but do you cryptos at all? >> Oh my goodness. Yeah, the I um now I but I use this one on the show and one thing that's thrown me a bit and I

[1:46:18] mentioned this yesterday is that it used to be dollar/BTC like what do you want? So it that doesn't work anymore. I'm not sure why. Um so I I kind of cheat and just use like IBIT

[1:46:31] proxy for it. >> Yeah. So, um, in any case, you know, >> Yeah. So, um, in any case, you know, Bitcoin is down about, um, 50ish% since October. Um, and I'm looking for it to get to say 40,000. Um, and but

[1:46:48] yeah, it's it's been uh like the Bitcoin futures up 2175 right now. So, it's been bouncing back, but I you know, you know how I am. I just see it as another >> yeah. So, you you still see this slide. That's I was just I was interested

[1:47:01] and you still think it's going to continue to slide. talking about crypto. Yeah. >> Yeah. I like it. >> We're still in the midst of that four-year cycle, Liz.

[1:47:14] >> No, you can't. I just like that the three of us, Chris, Liz, and Tim are all bullish. Rivian, go Rivian. [laughter] >> I today. >> Yeah. No, like well look just time for Tim shame which is my other specialty.

[1:47:30] Uh when it was down around 14 I was thinking now is a good time to buy and I didn't bother and now five bucks later it's like oh you really are a challenged >> But it's probably hard Tim for you to buy. I mean you

[1:47:42] >> it is I am I am praaternally unable to do so. The only long positions in my life I've had success with are those I can't get rid of like real estate. So, click a button, it's like, you know, oh, Amazon at 50 cents. Hey, 51 cents, I'm

[1:47:57] life. >> It's so funny cuz I was talking looking just at stupid real estate and I was like, if there was a buy now button, I would be in cuz I need the instant gratification of the of [laughter] that.

[1:48:10] >> Oh gosh, we should make that product. We should make that product. You know, Japan right now, or maybe it's Korea, where uh you can you can order food on actually do anything. No one shows up at your door. But like people, they're

[1:48:23] gamifying the consumer experience because people just like that so much. reminds me of a Star Trek episode. I forget the name of it. It's the one

[1:48:35] where they visit a planet which basically performs war via computer. And so they'll have computer simulations of war with their with their opponent. and then the the totals of like the dead will show up and then ex those number of

[1:48:49] chambers and get killed. So it's basically like a like a neutron bomb. So they're able to have war, experience war, suffer the casualties of war, yet >> I guess that's more violent than the food, but you get

[1:49:03] >> is extraordinarily violent. [laughter] >> He's a little different. >> A little I thought you were going to like a Kobayashi Maru. >> We can talk about Hey, I I don't like to lose, right? I know. Give me an apple.

[1:49:15] the closing second of the show. >> And you do the 4th of July before we let >> Oh, you This is It's genetic if you can do it or not, Chris. Let's see if you >> Do Sorry. Do what? >> So, the live long and prosper. Some

[1:49:29] [laughter] >> Yeah. I I was raised more in Star Wars. So, >> okay. The the reasons to love Liz just >> okay. The the reasons to love Liz just get longer every day. [laughter]

[1:49:44] Thanks so much for joining the show. Happy 4th of July weekend off. Um bye trade right now. So I hope it does. >> That's what makes a market. It's all right. [laughter] >> Tim, see you later. Uh listen, we're

[1:49:57] morning. I think that we have Julia coming up next here on the program. >> Let's bring her in. >> We should bring her in. Let's bring her >> We love Julia. She's a crowd favorite. We have to see first if she can do this.

[1:50:11] move? >> They're just forcing us on camera. Okay. [clears throat] >> SEE, Julia got quite the haircut there. >> And there she is. >> Okay, I can do it on one hand, but not

[1:50:26] >> Sometimes you can do it, sometimes you can't. [laughter] need for that one, but that's what I got. >> What's the evolutionary advantage of being able to do that versus not?

[1:50:38] could be like, "Look at this cool thing." Were just accepted by their peers and survived. They got more food. >> They got to sleep in more. >> In Tim's war game scenario, maybe they were saved. Who knows? [laughter]

[1:50:52] >> There be like some reason why we needed to be able to do the little chameleon we had to grab that was really specific. I don't know. Humans are amazing, man. >> They really are. How are you doing, Julie? It's great to see you. I feel

[1:51:05] >> I know. It's been a minute. No, it's nice to be on the show. It's fun. Yeah, it's been fun being on every day almost. >> Absolutely. Absolutely. Okay, so traders." Because Julia and I were on the Bad Trader Tour. We're good traders

[1:51:18] Trader Tour. >> Different kind of bad. with a PH. >> So, my favorite part about the Bad Julia to wear one of my green jumpsuits. Do you remember this, Julia? [laughter]

[1:51:30] >> I recall. I do remember that. Yeah, I remember that. That was a fun show. And yeah, no tap dancing, but that's okay. Um, yeah, those that was uh I think that Um, yeah, those that was uh I think that was my first tour ever. I don't know.

[1:51:42] >> Yeah, Julia is ironically as tall as I am. So when hope I was hoping she lost her luggage and we'd get her in some color, but but that did not happen. remember. Yeah, Jamal had to talk me off a cliff uh for the first couple speak

[1:51:56] like I'm just not not great in front of crowds. So that was like a fun challenge >> You were really good. You were really good. It's just people don't think that favorite. So, >> it's also like this most amazing crowd,

[1:52:10] really and you get to meet people beforehand. It's like the best possible introduction to public speaking. So, guess it's just downhill from here. Chris, we'll let you talk in a second, but on [laughter] these tours on these

[1:52:23] tours and I have your book right behind me. So, Julia wrote a book. She literally wrote the book on options trading and so but I GOT TO SIGN IT. you sign this book?" I was like, "It's Julia's book, but she

[1:52:35] >> People have asked me. I've signed a few of the books, too. It's like I I'm flattered, but I did nothing. I have nothing to do with this. Go talk to the >> Correct. Correct. So, it's kind of fun. >> It's always fun. Yeah. And Yeah. People

[1:52:48] the books. I'm like, "Yeah, take them all. Take them all. [laughter] >> Give it to your friends." >> Okay. Y'all want to get into some >> Let's do it. >> Okay. So, trade management in 2026.

[1:53:01] >> Okay. So, trade management in 2026. Trading is an art and a science in my know we have the mechanics, we have rules around like when to manage trades, in certain ways, trading volatility, early management, all that kind of

[1:53:14] stuff. We have kind of rules of thumb um that you know to just kind of get started. But we know that like using your kind of critical thinking as a you to deviate from those rules sometime. I just had this, you know, um

[1:53:27] earlier this week where I had some put spreads on. Market took a big, you know, they were at a loss and I decided to hold past 21 days to see if they would when you do that, but that's something that I don't think I'm the only trader

[1:53:40] who does that. So, I wanted to take a look at how um basically holding losers past 21 days has performed in 2026. Um if there's been any upsides, what the downsides have looked like, and I wanted to kind of test that. I don't know if

[1:53:54] just with like the crazy market swings that we've seen. Um, so that's that was >> Okay, Julia, I say this all the time. You need to understand the rules in >> For sure. Yeah. And I think it's about using discretion and about like really

[1:54:08] the more you can kind of get a feel for the market. The market's a different a different beast every day. It constantly changes. But it can let you use some of break the rules. But yeah, you want to have that foundation, understand what

[1:54:21] >> Yes. Correct. >> Yep. So, um, kind of like I said, I 21 DTE, if they're specifically if they're losers. And, um, this is not, I think, a realistic scenario for a lot of traders in 2026, exactly what we're

[1:54:36] look at management and see how kind of out, when it's kind of paid off, and when it sort of hasn't. Make sense? >> Yeah, for sure. >> Cool. Let's look at the study. Okay. So

[1:54:48] uh we're just looking at 2026. So this is very short scent of data when we had rally in the market. And we're looking at 45d 16 mil to spy strangles. And the reason that we're doing that is really just to isolate the results of

[1:55:03] kind of like a test underlying. A lot of these principles hold true regardless of what underlying you pick. Um strangles uh we're using to remove the directional bias. I was not comfortable putting on the put side for a lot of 2026 after my

[1:55:16] first like loss or two, but we're trying to remove sort of like directional bias strategies. Um, and then we're also ignoring critical factors like IV that we're really trying to look at like management in 2026 and how that's been

[1:55:30] >> every every day, right? Every day. >> These are that's another factor too. I conversations about because this doesn't represent how people would typically every day, but we're trying to get as much data as possible again to kind of

[1:55:44] isolate the factors of management, see how that impacts our strategy. Um, and representative of how someone would actually be trading. We're just trying >> Right. >> Exactly. So, uh, unmanaged strangles,

[1:55:59] uh, early management 21 DTE or 50% the initial credit and then if a loser or if a trade is a loser at 21 DTE, holding it until it flips positive. That's what not going to try to collect significant premium. We're just saying like if it's

[1:56:14] until it flips green and then take it right off. And then if it doesn't flip, we're holding it to expiration. So, this first slide here is showing us basically what just regular management versus unmanagement kind of looks like. Um, and

[1:56:28] you can see that like the tail risk specifically, again, we're trading neutral strategies when we had a very strong rally in the S&P. So basically all those red um like bars, anyone who would have put a trade on a strangle on

[1:56:40] during that time would have incurred a loss um whether they managed early or at expiration. And we can see that the tail risk becomes significantly worse when strategies. Um and that's really what we're trying to do when we use them. Uh

[1:56:53] we might lose a little bit of money from like premium collection over time trade goes, the closer it gets to expiration, the more theta decay, the risk is really what we're trying to control here when we're doing these

[1:57:06] early management so that we can more likely be profitable in the long term. It's what we're trying to do, right? >> Yeah, I see this. >> And the tail risk is where the the what is the scariest part. And so trying to

[1:57:18] >> Exactly. And this tail risk, what's really interesting here is this tail was was from one really strong rally in the S&P. We saw like this huge period of neutral strategies during that time, it was really like the same event. Um, so

[1:57:33] it looks like a lot of losses, but it's really from like one big tear in the >> Exactly. >> Yes. get a snapshot of what the average experience is like, which means that

[1:57:45] going to be putting the trades on at totally different times throughout the differently, using different entry conditions. We're trying to kind of look at management, which is why we're seeing all those red bars. Basically,

[1:57:59] anybody that would have put on a trade during, you know, those times um really like around April, right? Uh anyone would have put on a trade during that then we see green most of the time, which is what you'd expect from a

[1:58:11] >> Yeah. >> Yep. And then where it gets really slide, if we're holding the losers past 21 DTE, those kind of hatched bars are what would happen if you held the loser past that 21DTE mark. You can see a

[1:58:26] couple times when the P&L flipped, right? So like as you would kind of expect like the market kind of goes up, goes down, reverses. And so you see that like of of the trades um that were placed of the 39 losers basically 20

[1:58:40] this is a typo, but 23 of those trades flipped. So we increased our pop pretty significantly, but the trades that didn't flip incurred much worse losses, especially during that one like very, you know, specific market event that we

[1:58:52] >> Yes. number. Okay. >> Yeah. So, if we go to the next slide, we can look at our nice table of numbers. early, the tail risk is really what we're trying to control for. So, holding

[1:59:05] the losers past 21DTE increased the pop of the trade. We saw it increased the of the trade. We saw it increased the median P&Ls um and uh the median P&Ls, because you're basically getting the same level of tail risk as if you un

[1:59:18] waiting it to flip. um when you're undergoing one of these extreme kind of more not extreme market events but really strong rallies that we saw we use average P&Ls to get a snapshot that kind of includes the tail risk but median

[1:59:31] P&Ls are really what your kind of more typical experience will be um sort of as a trader so it's important to look at both one that has the tail weight one distribution instead but the kind of messaging remains the same which is that

[1:59:44] that tail risk has a really really big impact on your C bar which is really what you're trying to control for um when you're using that. >> Julia, can you just sorry, can you just explain quickly to the audience what the

[1:59:57] difference between VAR and CVAR is? >> VAR and CVAR. Okay, so value we're basically Okay, so value at risk expected shortfall. Um we're basically especially this is good with distributions that have a really big

[2:00:11] tail such as short premium distributions um where like the tail risk is unlikely to happen but can get very large. your value at risk is basically like what is the point in the distribution when uh you hit this tail. So for example like

[2:00:27] if your value at risk is like $1,000 and your you know threshold is 5% that means in the worst 5% of cases um your loss is going to be worse than $1,000 is what your bar is. Your conditional value at risk basically takes that extreme tail

[2:00:41] and does like an average a weighted average of it. So it's an even more kind of like extreme estimate of your worst case loss. We use buying power for that data for this back test, but that gives you like a representation of like what

[2:00:55] your historical worst case loss is um approximately or what you can expect it is basically like what we're looking at to look at those extreme tail occurrences that's a little bit more less extreme than buying power reduction

[2:01:09] which is meant to capture like 90 to 95% of those losses. Does that make sense? we I know there's CVR on the platform. Liz, you and I were talking about this, I think last week. I rarely ever look at CVR, but when you're when you're trying

[2:01:22] to figure out like does the glove fit, >> it is a consideration when you're doing >> Um, and and I don't think that you should ignore it, but I know on a looking at my trade right now and

[2:01:34] >> For sure. I think it like as a trader, you constantly have to weigh the, you obviously. And so buying power reduction gives you it's supposed to give you a expected worst case loss is, but that can sometimes be too extreme um for most

[2:01:52] situations depending on the trader. So C bar can give you especially for undefined risk trades it doesn't quite they're kind of more the same when it undefined risk trades it's trying to give you like kind of a more realistic

[2:02:04] representation of if kind of you know the market went crazy or went the market went against you what are you looking at? Um, so as well like if we're doing a worst loss ever recorded, that could have been just like one very bad data

[2:02:19] point, that's not representative of what is typical in an extreme situation. So to get a better snapshot looking at a whole chunk of a distribution instead of one data point. >> No. Right. And I think that's a good I

[2:02:33] scenarios because people need to understand that that's a possibility of what what what does happen. >> Yeah. This is the worst 5% of cases, which like again, we're looking at a, you know, a tra a strategy that's traded

[2:02:47] possible. That's not representative of what most people are going to kind of trying to kind of isolate specific variables here. We're trying to isolate about that. So, that's kind of why we approach back tests that way. It's not

[2:03:02] makes sense. understand what your worst possible case scenario is. I do I don't think that's a you know what typically happens or what possibly could happen. It's it's

[2:03:16] you can't be surprised if you say I lost $4,269 in this strangle. thing here for traders in my view is like oh there's no benefit for holding past 21dt on a loser >> right and that's just you you have to

[2:03:30] get lucky and if you don't get lucky then you experience a much steeper loss >> exactly >> I don't even I don't need to know the yeah." No, it's just not worth it. >> But you know what though? It's very

[2:03:42] hard. I I like the sear in there, too, because I have um I I'm I'm a very like, I was like, "I'll get you back." Like, I'm trying to be lucky. So, it is it's it's human nature to think that. It's human nature to think, "Okay, well,

[2:03:55] it didn't turn around in the first 21 days, the next 21 days, I'm going to do math. >> Can't fight the math. And you also can't the market in real time. It's very difficult to tell like what the movement

[2:04:09] in the middle of a sell-off? I remember in 2020 that was an ongoing conversation several weeks into the sell-off. We still kind of couldn't tell if we were Likewise with the rally. So, what we kind of saw here is like your your P&L

[2:04:23] can flip, right? It does it did happen with a good number of cases. But if you're in a really, especially if you're in a very aggressive market regime and if you're, you know, trading a single company stock or a sector ETF as well

[2:04:35] risk factors, like it can be very difficult to tell in the moment like kind of should I, you know, break the rules a little bit and keep this on or I'm saying it's like a science and an art, but it's good to understand the

[2:04:47] science to know when to kind of use that discretion and especially understanding what the potential risks are when you choose to do that. Like it could continue to go south. That does happen, >> right? A group.

[2:04:59] or is this the last slide? >> This is these are takeaways that we can just real quickly go through them, but basically um early management 2026 is holding up. It's cut and tail loss um versus holding to expiration. Um holding

[2:05:12] those losers past 21 DTE did boost the win rate, but that comes with more exposure to tail risk. Trades that never flip positive continue with no, you they will just kind of go on to expiration. basically have the same kind

[2:05:24] of tail risk as an unmanaged position. So, um, looking at this, I don't want to would have changed that, but the 50% 21DTE gives you more control over the

[2:05:37] other element here that we didn't talk about is that it frees up capital for >> So, when you do have, you know, a loss that could be because of volatility of a market, then managing that position early allows you to potentially redeploy

[2:05:51] that to more strategic positions. Um, and also important to note that we're we're really trying to look at one specific variable, which is management. So, this is not representative of how someone would typically be trading, but

[2:06:04] we want to just understand like did it hold up in 2026. And this is kind of painting a picture why. Hopefully, >> it Liz, it's almost like if you're if takeaway here is actually really informative as a trend trader. If I'm

[2:06:18] trading a position within the trend and I'm at 21dt and it's working against me but the trend is still holding that may be a scenario where I go you know what >> because it there's an there's you know I'm trading with the market it could

[2:06:32] go to 17 16 15 >> but you understand why understand what you're doing >> exactly exactly know the rule know when >> and why you're also like know the risk it's like I could totally be wrong when

[2:06:46] I do that and I might be increasing my potential losses when that happens. Um, discretion, but I I just did that. I'm like, we had a drop in the market. I decided to keep my positions on past 21 DTE. Market recovered a little bit. Was

[2:06:59] more profit, but that, you know, I wouldn't have maybe done that if I was uncomfortable putting the call side on at all. Um, I'm sorry, in 2026, I got very uncomfortable putting the call side on at all back in April and March. So,

[2:07:14] um, yeah, it's really, yeah, you got to use your trader gut. Yep. I like it. Cool. All right, that's all I got. >> We are swapping out one genius for another here, and I mean that sincerely. We have the doctor coming up next.

[2:07:27] Julia, thank you so much for this uh segment on risk management. Dr. J is here to talk about probability origins, the skinny on options, coming up next on the skinny on options, coming up next on Tasty Live.

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[2:09:14] beautiful music to bring on the one and only Dr. Jim. You know how much I've learned from this guy over the years? I I I watch his videos on the weekend on >> Oh, you know. >> Oh, so you're the one. So you're the

[2:09:26] exciting for me. Do you know what was said? You know what was said yesterday? And I I actually found this kind of amusing. Dr. Jim, um I was talking to my Dr. Jim ever consider being a professor? I was like, [laughter] he's so good at

[2:09:42] what he does. And I was like, oh, good God. I I can't even >> Yeah. I mean, I miss I miss my time in the classroom so much. Like that was so I mean, that was really special. I mean what we do obviously every day is

[2:09:54] extremely special for different reasons but man like having these kids and a lot of times like I taught the principles of finance class like I was often times the first experience they had with formal education when it came to finance that's

[2:10:07] think about that that's a scary thought >> hey I'd sign up for your class >> and I appreciate >> and you've got good stories from the classroom so you've got >> Oh yeah yeah yeah yeah and you know but

[2:10:21] really funny. I know Laura's trying to push us. But I got to tell the story >> Yeah, she can't. Like, she thinks she can, but she can't. >> Like, SHE CAN SHE CAN STOP ME, MIKE, and Jamal, but once you get like me and Liz

[2:10:33] stop it. Anyway, [laughter] >> I used to actually bake my kids cookies for when we would have exams. I would bake them cookies and they loved it. They loved it so much. I just fattened them up before the slaughter. Like, it

[2:10:48] real good time with it, man. >> That's smart. That's pretty smart. So exam. >> That's exactly right. That's exactly you crush them and then you hope to come out as even in the end.

[2:11:01] anything from Dr. Jim. At least they walk away with diabetes. That's exactly right. All right, let's do some probabilities. Man, you guys ready to talk about some probability origins?

[2:11:14] >> I I cannot wait. We're going to talk about We're going to talk about pop, P50, and then POT. So, these are the three probabilities that we use every useful. >> You don't know what POT is, Chris? Do

[2:11:27] you know what POT is? >> Uh, I've never heard of the substance. I've never used it. Talk to Ilia. [laughter] know. I mean, WHAT IS IT? >> NO, YOU ABSOLUTELY KNOW. It's

[2:11:39] >> Oh, okay. Yeah, there you go. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, you absolutely know. [laughter] No, no, no, no, no. It's POT. Yeah. No, POT. Okay. All right. So, let's talk about pop. Okay. So, this is kind of the this is the the null

[2:11:52] to probability analysis. Like, this is how we start. And pop the where it comes from, it's really pretty simple. All that's all that's being done in that moment is looking at a distribution of potential probabilistic outcomes for

[2:12:08] here, we're looking at just like a simple 16 delta short put. and then measuring what is the space, what chunk of that distribution corresponds to a winning trade at expiration. So this is pointing towards one singular moment in

[2:12:24] time. What is the probability that I land at some type of profit? That's all pop is. And so that's why when you look at like a 16 delta strike, that's why It's actually going to be a little bit more than 84% for other reasons we'll

[2:12:39] that's why it works out that way. Go ahead, Liz. I just want to say just for the lay people because I have to I have to jump back in and redeem myself for [laughter] the pop is probability of one penny in

[2:12:53] it's not necessarily the probability of making a lot of money. It's not losing >> Well well okay but it's not probability of it's not one penny in the money out >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So just to be just to be clear, right? Because I mean if it's

[2:13:08] out of the money. >> Correct. Correct. >> And so Chris, I know you're kind of when it comes to selling premium, like we've got to take you under our wing a little bit. Like this is kind of,

[2:13:21] >> Yeah. >> I just like to buy I'm an I'm an American consumer. I like to buy things. I like to buy my options. I like to buy my big cars. I like to buy more options. >> So So Jim, I need you to do me a favor.

[2:13:34] and I'm going to look down cuz like in Brady Bunch style, he's in between us right now. So we [laughter] That's great. That's great. That's good. >> Okay. So, Chris, so this is really

[2:13:47] interesting, Chris. So, so you're okay because I mean by selling options and selling premium, we're taking the higher probability play, but the losses are going to be bigger than the winners. You're okay flipping that around. You

[2:14:00] like having that big bigger win potential in exchange for a lower >> It depends. It It totally depends on the volatility environment, right? like the floor and there's positive technical drift I will buy a slightly out of the

[2:14:13] money call and go fishing and let the market do the heavy lifting if we get to a place in like April or March this past year I don't want to buy calls in that contextual I don't have an issue with paying for premium though which I know a

[2:14:26] lot of other people do well I like that though because you're thinking about it a volatility lens which I think that's really really good and when you think about you know the mean reverting entity or aspect of volatility That can be

[2:14:38] months do play out like they have historically then being long some of sense definitely. >> So let's go to >> that that 100%. Let's go to uh the next slide. So probability of 50%. So this

[2:14:51] one is very very different. So when you look at the tasty trade platform in the trade bar you see that little p50 metric that is measuring what is the probability that I make 50% of my max profit at some point over the life of

[2:15:05] this trade. Okay, this is actually doing a Monte Carlos simulation of all the possible iterations from trade entry all the way to expiration. So, I mean, we're talking tens of thousands of, you know, of iterations over and over and over

[2:15:20] again. And if people ever wonder like what Chris and I do all day, I mean, doing this by hand. Like, they're working all this out by hand. So, we we thank you, Chris, and we thank you so much for all the work you're doing on

[2:15:34] the Monte Carlo stimulations. And so I'm in the mind. >> So when it comes to understanding like being a premium seller, I mean this is I think Liz? Is this more valuable than pop even? I I think P50 is more valuable

[2:15:49] Like I want to make some money in this trade. What what are my chances of point during the cycle? I think this is the metric I hang my head on. >> Yeah. I I I think it kind of has to be because we rarely hold things to

[2:16:02] expiration. Like we're rarely going. >> And you and I are both premium sellers. that hill. I mean, don't get me wrong, do I take a shot? Sometimes, I my theta numbers are up. I'm selling things like I'm selling options. So,

[2:16:15] on at 50/50. >> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. So, Chris, when it options, are you kind of looking at a 50% of max profit when you are short >> Yeah. You know, that's something I need to be better about. I was actually

[2:16:29] lamenting this with Liz. There's there's just in terms of the income generation cycle of it all. If I can get into a trade 45 and 21 out and I hit 50% within a few days, why on earth would I want to hold on to that and try to spend the

[2:16:41] Take it off, move on. I need to be better about that. Um, so I'm trying to year, 2026. >> There you go. There you go. No, I mean, and that's it. We're all trying to improve, right? That that that's 100%.

[2:16:55] >> Yeah, definitely. So, okay. So the last one, let's go to POT cuz Liz needs some >> So when you [laughter] >> So when you look at a probability of a model, that's what we have here on the slide. That N of D1, that is essentially

[2:17:10] Well, the probability of a touch is simply two times the delta. And what this number actually measures is what is the probability that that level at that strike gets hit at any point over the

[2:17:23] may go through it. It may bounce back. It doesn't matter. But what is the probability that that guy gets tested at some point? In my opinion, this is incredibly valuable when it comes to understanding I have a trade that has

[2:17:37] not worked and I'm trying to figure out like when do I finally pull the rip cord? When do I finally say enough is enough? Looking at the option chain, looking at deltas and then backing into a pot can be really helpful to say, all

[2:17:51] against me, but how much are they against me? Are they against me like 1090 or are they against me like 40 60 to where I might have a good chance to get out of this guy at some point in this cycle? And so that's how I use the

[2:18:04] curious how you guys use it. >> So number one, I'm glad you wrote that formula up there. Throw that out. Throw that out the window. Look at the delta exactly what it says there. Double double the delta. And I think people are

[2:18:17] today with Chris. I'm pretty aggressive premium seller. I like the at the perspective. If I'm selling that at the money, I've got a 40 delta. I've got an 80% chance of being tested at some point during that cycle. So, I don't mind I

[2:18:29] like being tested early in the cycle versus later, right? So, I like it if it there's a chance it could come right back. But the those are realistic understand that if you're being aggressive with what you're selling,

[2:18:42] to you're going to take some heat. >> Yeah. J, don't feel bad about her think every day this week she said, "Okay, Chris, what said was smart? Let me make it actually understandable. [laughter]

[2:18:58] 100%. That I mean that's why that's what makes Liz so amazing. Like she takes all the gibberish that we come with and she makes she turns it into like actionable like all right here's what you actually do today in your platform. Here's what

[2:19:10] that's what it's all about. So >> you put that formula up. I would have no idea what the hell you were talking. [laughter] of things. So number one, if you understand the origin story of each of

[2:19:24] the probability metrics, I think it can really help you understand better what the information you have at your disposal, what it actually is, what it And so you can see these are all probability metrics, but they're all at

[2:19:38] least slightly, if not significantly, different from one another that give you can use in different ways. So you might valuable than a pop. Both Liz and I feel the same way. Or you may use a

[2:19:51] help you adjust a losing trade. I mean, that's how I like to use it. Uh, you know, Liz, you like to use it like early on in the cycle, understanding, I'm selling a 40 delta. I'm selling a 45 delta. I mean, if you're selling a true

[2:20:04] at the money, that's 50 delta. I mean, that's 100%. Well, it has to be 100% sense. >> Yeah. You're already touching. [laughter] It's already done. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's kind of like the game

[2:20:16] not touching you. Like, you're it's already touching you. Yes, >> there. [laughter] a few takeaways and we'll uh we'll cut them loose into the forest that is the

[2:20:29] we're so close to greatness. So, probabilities guide our day-to-day decisions as we enter positions and build our portfolios with pop pability metrics that we use. And now hopefully you have a better understanding of each

[2:20:44] of the differences between the three and where they can might be best applied. I kids watch this segment. [laughter] Oh, >> don't do that. Not on a holiday weekend. Maybe on like a random Tuesday, but not on a holiday weekend. That's going to

[2:20:59] wake up her kids at like on Sunday morning at like 4:00 a.m. What's the formula? What's the formula? [laughter] >> You know what's really funny? So but sometimes it's like on our fire stick or whatever like we'll be just

[2:21:12] watching stuff and we'll go on YouTube and so sometimes we'll go on YouTube and my kids will see like my segments come up and I'm sitting next to them on the couch and they still can't believe that cuz they see like real famous people on

[2:21:24] next to them and they're like this doesn't make any sense. Like what world >> And I'm like I know I don't understand it either. >> Kids kids will never will never understand that. They will not never

[2:21:36] thank you very much, Dr. Jim. >> You got it. >> Back later today. Right. >> Yeah. From theory to practice, 2:30. >> 2:30 Central time. Dr. Jay is >> 2:30 Eastern time. 1:30 Eastern. See,

[2:21:50] Liz, you keep doing this to me with the times. [laughter] Just >> J's on the right coast. 1:30 Central. 2:30 Eastern. Dr. Jay, we'll see you later today. Take a brief break here. Liz and I are coming back. We've got

[2:22:02] your questions. confirm and sadden. Coming up next,

[2:22:16] going. I make $4.97 every second that I work. And if I don't going to go crazy. >> Okay. >> It's a cute dress. Where'd you get it? >> Oh, thank you. H&M.

[2:22:28] >> That's pretty good. >> Probably not worth more than $4 now. these things. Everything has value. >> Well, not everything has value. >> I am pretty sure I can name a couple of things that don't have value.

[2:22:41] >> 5 cents. >> Feebleness. >> That's a sad one. $12. >> I have a toughy for you. >> Me and you. >> Yeah. Did we have a price?

[2:22:53] >> Yeah. >> Two cents. We [snorts] should have sold >> Yeah. We could have made a lot of money on that one. Oops. [laughter] >> I wouldn't even pick that up off the street.

[2:23:07] >> Exactly. I think that's more on you than it is on me. >> Lord knows I'm trying. Hey, you know what though? There's money to be made at you. You're a young buck. What are you like 37?

[2:23:21] >> I'm 26. >> With your genetic makeup, you know, you're not putting on too much weight. [snorts] I think you could sell those a profit online, but I wouldn't wait too long. Next month, those would go down

[2:23:34] the way you're eating. >> I got to take off. H, time is money. >> Are you serious? >> Yeah. Hey, look. Can you get the check on this? I left my wallet in the car. I don't like to carry around bulky things.

[2:23:48] don't like to carry around bulky things. It slows me down.

[2:24:11] session here, but we have received a few questions. in the chat. I agree with you. Mr. Beast does not have anything on Dr. Jim. Do you know who Mr. Beast is? >> I I it's been forced on me. So, yes.

[2:24:23] because I did reference I wanted to give that a shout out. Okay. >> Uh, you know, honestly, I'm after after yesterday's Jaylen Brown Paul George trade, Bill Simmons pushed his live Netflix show uh from last night to this

[2:24:38] morning at 11:00 a.m. Eastern. I'm getting ready to hate watch this [laughter] so bad. I can't wait. [gasps] But before we get there, 7545 stocks points off the high. S&P is only up one point right now. NASDAQ's down by 1%.

[2:24:53] Hey, that short iron condor and S&P that we put on earlier. The TP special may be working out for us here. Uh Liz, nothing to manage just yet right now, but if we were to take this off, we could flip it for well, still [laughter]

[2:25:07] to wait a little bit longer. >> You move. So, sometimes with the iron too much of a move. If we had stayed where it was right when you put it on, because we've got that down move, that 50 point reversal, you're going to have

[2:25:19] >> Uh, I just need a little bit of stability here. But hey, let's get it to questions here from the audience. Obviously, that came in over the course of this morning's show. Laura, let's go to the questions. And Liz, this one

[2:25:33] feels like it comes directly after uh what we just spoke about with Julia you. I keep hearing that the number of occurrences is what makes premium selling work. >> Hold on. I think that they're putting

[2:25:46] >> There we go. >> No, no, no. Yeah, >> Number of occurrences. >> I keep hearing that the number of still on the wrong one. This is 21 days. We can stay right here. Do you want me

[2:26:00] [laughter] >> Okay. Third time's the charm. I keep what makes premium selling work, but I only have so much buying power. Is it positions or concentrate into a fewer bigger ones? How do you think about that

[2:26:13] trade-off? So, I love this question because I for my personal opinion, I first starting out and you have a smaller account, uh smaller positions, get the probabilities to work out. I mean, we just had Dr. Jim on with all of

[2:26:26] those with all of those metrics. And those are just in theory, you need you need a number of occurrences in order to have these actual probabilities work out over time. I mean, you see that in the curve, you see that in all of it. I 100%

[2:26:38] think that if you're just starting off, don't go with the bigger ones. If the the one you think you say this one's going to win in the other ones. I'm putting more eggs in that basket. So, smaller positions scattered across.

[2:26:50] smaller positions scattered across. >> If I could make one if one critique to >> make sure that you're doing different factors though, right? If I'm out here and I'm doing like short put spread and ago and Tesla and broad, you know, and

[2:27:03] same stuff. I'm Yeah, maybe 10 different trades. It's really just one trade. diversify by different ones. They pepper your infield by strategy, different things. So those are like three or four big ideas, but then with

[2:27:17] each one you have three or or four different trades coming out of them. So Inadvertently, and I've done that myself, by the way, where it's like, oh here. Oh, wait, no, I don't. It's all long deltas and tech stocks. It doesn't

[2:27:30] >> That's a very good point and something that I that I failed to say because it different positions across lots of different things so that that that your >> right. Yeah. Diversify your factor exposure. Uh Laura, let's go to the next

[2:27:45] exposure. Uh Laura, let's go to the next one here. Uh can finally Okay. I heard times. I don't get why. If a trade's winning, why not let it ride to What's the actual reason to step in and manage at 21 days instead? This is right

[2:27:58] and I'm glad I'm glad we got this question on there and I kind of like the circling around and talking about things as a whole and answering these from and Chris you're going to jump in and talk about from your perspective too

[2:28:13] but just as I've been trading forever you enter at 45 you manage at 21. Now, we've had a team of researchers research this until their faces came off because at that 21 days till expiration, that's the 45 days, the theta curve starts to

[2:28:27] riskreward scenario can flip and that's what happened in Julia's. So, you can redeploy the capital at 21 days. Keep in mind this is a loose guideline, but understand why you why you're using that 21day mark. Chris brought up a great

[2:28:41] and I'm still there, maybe I'd let it go to 17 or 18. This is a loose guideline, but right here when you are selling premium and especially if it's um neutral premium, most of our stuff has been straddles and strangles. If you're

[2:28:54] selling neutral premium, you need time to pass and no movement. Take that, redeploy it, reenter it. The 21 days till expiration is there to protect you from and protect me for I'm not no nothing I give is advice to protect me

[2:29:08] from larger losses as we saw in the conditional value of risk, maximize every single dollar out of every single trade. It's to survive long that through the cycles, the probabilities accumulate in your favor

[2:29:22] here. So, um I think I think you said this to me once years ago when I first this. You told me that the last nickel is usually the most expensive nickel. So, take profit early. >> It usually is and it's just the wing in

[2:29:36] taking your profits early and it's not yours until you close it, right? So, if you're at 21 days or 50%, whichever comes first, then redeploy that capital. >> We can do one more question. We'll kick another one out to last call. Uh Laura,

[2:29:48] quickly before we end the show, uh Liz, why don't you take this one? I was loving the bigger credits when VIX was over 23 in June. Now it's back in nothing for the same risk. Do I just sit on my hands until V comes back or is

[2:30:03] premium when the tape calms down? >> Yeah, I mean, don't overtrade. We never overtrade and if what what works in a 16 or 17 VIX environment is not the same strategy that works in a 24 25 VIX environment. So it's not that you don't

[2:30:16] sell premium down here. You just have to change your structure and how you deploy may have been able to go a little bit tighter back then in a higher volume little bit wider now to capture the credit that makes the trade actually

[2:30:29] worth it. So um I'm not going to say don't participate, but it's just changed the way that you participate. >> Very well said. I always say the going to put on. Right. >> There you have it. You don't want to

[2:30:42] hole. Let the market tell you what shape you need to be and then go find it out though, we're going to have to cut it short there because confirm and send is time here today. We're getting back to a flat market. Maybe, just maybe, we'll

[2:30:56] take off that iron condor for a trade back to 7502 here in SPX. But Gus and Errol are coming up next. TP and I will be back in about 30 minutes. You're watching Tasty Live. Have a good holiday everybody.

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[2:34:57] last trading day before the Fourth of July week and I hope everybody else is little tour to market, talk about some of the scalps that we had taken this positions on this short week. But before we get into that, what's going on

[2:35:09] brother guys? How we doing today? >> Doing good. Always good. Uh yeah, it's a into the long weekend. So, you know, I'm I'm a happy camper. We got the observed Fourth of July on uh on Friday. Well, tomorrow uh can somebody tell me if the

[2:35:22] 4th of July falls on a Sunday? Do do we do it on the Monday? I can't I don't recall what when when we observe that. I know it's going to happen next year, so >> I know. Yeah, I think Fourth of July landed on Friday last year, so it made

[2:35:35] >> Well, yeah, last year it was the Friday. You you usually do it on the day, but if it falls on a weekend, then you observe it like it's it's on Saturday, so we third Friday. Yeah. >> But if it's on the Sunday, do we observe

[2:35:47] it on the fifth or is it still just >> If I was in charge of these rules, I >> I think that would make the most sense. >> I think everybody would be happy with >> Right. [laughter] >> Um but yeah, no, 100%. Uh I know it was

[2:36:00] market. Uh curious, as we get into things here, did anybody else see the things here, did anybody else see the Palunteer uh interview with Alex Karp on CNBC? He went on a a very long rant talking about um Claude and all these

[2:36:14] actually thought it was a really interesting conversation just because of got. But he was pretty much talking about how um he believes that a lot of about how um he believes that a lot of these other LLMs are

[2:36:27] secure and he thinks it's going to be a big problem. He also discussed how he thinks there's a huge issue with charging for these tokens. Um, so it was went on and you know, Alex and his personality. He really can go I guess

[2:36:40] was very interesting. I want to kind of things as well. I don't know if if if you had seen that interview at all. I hearing of this. >> I got you. No. Yeah. There there was

[2:36:54] just this outright uh reaction to it. So, uh, it's going to be interesting with Palance here and it's really tough dissecting some of those conversations speaking their own book right now, right? If they're going to be, you know,

[2:37:06] conversation is being framed right now. He's a very intense person whenever he that being said, got a lot of reactions from both sides of the spectrum. But, I point about charging for these tokens,

[2:37:20] which he believes a lot of enterprises are also very infuriated by. number one it's costing and then also uh some security reasons and his pretty much of that and he believes that they were ahead of the curve right very on point

[2:37:35] for Alex Karp. Alex Karp is a very uh he can come off very arrogant so you're not his own book saying the right things that he needs to say for his company or legitimate you know topics to actually think through. Um but anyways with that

[2:37:50] positions on today. We got the micro NASDAQ. Uh we got uh the micro oil we have USO. We did a little bit in the micro um oil today. We got a long

[2:38:03] bleeding right now. Down about 50 bucks on the day. Always been a little bit difficult trades to manage. Um but then we did one trade today in the micro NASDAQ. So we'll we'll we'll go over to Trade View here in a little bit and and

[2:38:16] we had taken. And then SpaceX. SpaceX is finally up a little bit more on the day. I had taken off the uh the naked call that we purchased on SpaceX. I think I eight days ago, but I took that off a couple days ago. We were in about like a

[2:38:29] $450 draw down. I think the contract costed like six bucks. It was like $600. contract back for 620. It was just nice to be out of the draw down. I'll we have the out of the money put spread that we're going to still try and ride a

[2:38:43] the positions that I have in my portfolio. Before we go any further, Any topics, news, anything? what's going on in Gus's world. >> Yeah. Um, oil [sighs] I I I fear oil is going to fall at just

[2:38:56] and make us both lose. Uh, if I'm going to lose in my oil puts, I would prefer winning. I could I could take some solace in that. Uh, but I think it's just this this slow downward movement is not what I need and it's obviously not

[2:39:09] of my mind today, uh, it's definitely Rivian. Rivian up a little over 10% on real good one. Work continuing to work higher. Yeah, you made a a really good if you were to be in the EV market, you would consider a Rivian.

[2:39:24] >> Yeah, I I think so. I don't even know. I think I would probably consider a Tesla first at my current income levels, but my whole longer term thesis with Rivian morning, I think there's going to be a vacuum created for luxury EVs. I think

[2:39:37] vacuum created for luxury EVs. I think that Tesla wants to be Honda, Nissan, Ford, Toyota. they want to have the the affordable lower MSRP mass production vehicles, get as many Teslas on the road as possible. I think that as Tesla

[2:39:49] continues to move towards that goal, it opens the door to, you know, allow a a more luxury product to eek into the market and and satiate that desire for something luxury. Uh not to mention that Elon likes to do divisive things about

[2:40:02] once a year, uh about once a day on Twitter. Um so, you know, that that have them looking for for another EV. And yes, very good tariff installation on Rivian as well. Fully uh US production chain all all the way

[2:40:15] through. Don't rely on any imports. So like it for all those reasons. Uh today upped their uh projections for uh vehicle deliveries for the full year. Um they've moved up to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles now is the range that they're

[2:40:28] positively to that. Uh and I did something I have not done in a long time and I exited one of my Rivian calls today. I decided it was it was time. I've had that 12 call uh forever just just sitting in the money. It was out of

[2:40:42] the money when I put it on. Um and every time I mean I I go on and on about how speaking of I actually might get short here at these levels, but uh I always talk about how Rivian likes to channel. And with 78 days to expiration left on

[2:40:54] that 12 call, uh I decided that this this was the time to go for it. I I feel thing and come right back down to 14 here pretty quickly. Uh like I said, while we're while we're here on air as well. Um, but yeah, Rivian off off these

[2:41:10] uh every time it tests like the 20 level, it always crosses my mind to exit the 20 level again today, I decided that was a good time to go ahead and take that off for 40% gain. But do not fear. I'm still a permabull on Rivian. Still

[2:41:23] I'm still a permabull on Rivian. Still have January 15th, 2027 and January have January 15th, 2027 and January 21st, 2028 calls going on. Uh I'm going to get short here, look for a return to the 1415 level, and then off those

[2:41:35] another one to this ladder, even further out. December of 2028 is what I will be whatever I feel I can stomach at at that level. some profits on Rivian. Uh it's not exactly the, you know, uh perfectly

[2:41:51] my screen uh chart action that I that I was hoping for, but uh anytime you get Rivian loves to do so often, you get good call side expansion and I'm just getting some risk off the table. >> I mean, up 10.2% on a day on on

[2:42:07] company is up over 10% on the day. So even though it's a cheaper underlying, pretty significant from percentage basis. everybody in chat as well? Got got got this open. I'm I'm being better about

[2:42:21] it, guys. I'm I'm reading the chats. Uh, Robert, nice boy Ranch. minutes early today, so maybe perhaps our uh usual crowd isn't isn't uh f >> Yeah. Yeah, they're they're still sleeping. Alarm's going off. Big deal. I

[2:42:37] know you're asleep right now. Um but no, people uh good good to see all of you. Happy to have you here. Um, yeah, beyond Rivian, uh, what else did I do this morning or yesterday? Oh, I still have my activity filtered just for Rivian.

[2:42:49] Let's fix that. Um, oh yeah, this this DLR I put on this DLR position Monday or Tuesday. >> Uh, that's always have to check. I was like some something real estate. Couldn't quite

[2:43:03] pinpoint it. But, uh, yeah, I did get long some DLR off off the gap down that just a little bit. We did get another down day yesterday uh into this slight up move that we're getting today. But it is at least in a purely technical

[2:43:17] the the bottom is coming through here for DLR. I'm looking for a return to the aggressive position. Something like a 4 to1 risk profile in this trade. Uh but all I'm really looking for there is just a a perfect gap fill uh back up to the

[2:43:32] to the pre- gap down levels. I I feel this move is is overexaggerated. So happy to get involved with some DLR. Yes, this was the one. Um, they bought I think it was $7.8 billion was the number of uh equity and data centers from

[2:43:46] Blackstone. Okay. So, uh and and the market reacted very negatively to that. I understand that it's money outurched. >> Yeah. Okay. They they bought into they of Blackstone's data centers. >> Market reacting [snorts] very negatively

[2:43:58] to that and I just disagree. I I think I think that that's the the wrong idea incredibly profitable venture for everybody who's in that space right now. and now they're up another 10% because they said they're going to sell off

[2:44:12] matter if you have too much data center. The market still likes it. Uh so I expect sentiment to to turn over on DLR and and and move back up. I am being also entertained potentially getting involved with with some leaps in DLR uh

[2:44:27] investment is profitable, we're not really going to have good numbers on year, something like that. So thinking about maybe a naked call on that time keeping it tight. 22 DTE looking for looking for 190 again.

[2:44:40] there. Especially this gap to the downside. I mean, it seems like still a money going out kind of like the point that you made. So >> yeah, and if you want to get in $115 notional better than me, you can do so

[2:44:53] >> We're on sale. We're on sale. [laughter] Um, no. Yeah, absolutely. With that being said, uh, quickly check out what Meta has been up to. Seems like Meta's, pulling back uh back into that gap where we gapped from what was that like

[2:45:05] Tuesday Tuesday Tuesday night. So I mean there's a lot of volatility in it. It officially back in business yet. The volatility is there. These candlesticks mention yesterday whenever we did gap up to the upside was one of the larger

[2:45:18] volume days that we had actually put in. So lot of lot of trading going on a lot decisions being made overall. >> Yeah. As as bullish as I am on Meta and I've I've gone on my Meta tirades a lot. I really don't think that this, you

[2:45:30] we're going to sell compute, we're going to do GPU as a service. I don't know if context, I do think that it could work for Meta. I understand why the market is reacting positively in the short term, but I don't think I I mean, like I said

[2:45:45] yesterday, I just I don't think these, you know, massive mag seven companies having too much data center is a good thing because, you know, one or if one as soon as Google and Microsoft and Nvidia and Apple all also have too much

[2:45:59] data center and begin selling off their extra computing capacity as well, uh it's I mean you know such as capitalism, the prices are going to have to get to compete with one another. And I think that at a point we can get to where we

[2:46:11] universally have too much data center and that's when things really start to get dire. So I I think this is the first step in the wrong direction for for the understand why the market is reacting positively to Meta in the short term

[2:46:24] the only one doing it, I do think it will be a profitable thing. So, as much as I would love to see Meta over 700 right now, I'm not surprised to see it people sort of uh as the excitement sort of dwindles and people begin to price in

[2:46:37] >> I mean, the data centers is kind of like a hot commodity right now. Something you that has value at least. So maybe I don't know, maybe Meta wants to get it maybe clean some things up. But nonetheless, really great take there.

[2:46:50] sell off right now. So maybe we have volatility up on the day a little bit more here. We'll take a quick look at NASDAQ NQP, New Pennsylvania Investment. circle back around to that one. >> I am uh I'm doing short Rivian right now

[2:47:04] >> Yeah. Deciding exactly how I want to fire on this. I'm going to be so stupid to do. I like it. I mean, I'm going like outside the expected move. Yeah. Here's here's what we're going to do on Rivian. Let me make sure this isn't completely

[2:47:18] we're going to do this every time. Every time I say I'm going to play the Rivian short. I'm going to let it return to this level. I always do two things. Okay. I pick my strikes too conservatively and I give myself too

[2:47:31] much time. Every time I say, why did I give it a month? I know that it only takes two weeks for Rivian to come back down. So, we're going to go 22 DTE. I am playing a 1615 bearish call spread here. Uh I'm getting

[2:47:44] 82 of credit for $18 United States dollars of buying power. Uh I'm going to go for I mean $18. I'm I'm going to do >> You said this is a little short delta off the

[2:47:59] back down. I'm going to do 10 of these. This is hyperaggressive, borderline down is I'm posting up 180 of buying power for $820 of max profit. And I know

[2:48:11] going to let myself get duped here. I I get the get the instant fill. Uh yeah, this is one 22 days might still be too much time. I I I always I always do this these channels happen. Uh the last time that we we went up, we tested the 1850

[2:48:27] level and we found ourselves back at 1460 4 days later. So 4 days later. >> Yeah. 4 days is what it took. Then there was a tiny bounce and then again uh what >> 14 days later we were we were back down below 15 again. So I'm not going to not

[2:48:42] going to let myself get duped. >> I I know what Rivian is. I know this underlying in the entire market. Honestly, I track this heavily. So we are we are going stupid aggressive here. That's that's the name of the game. Risk

[2:48:55] reason, people. >> I love it. now. Again, it still seems like Rivian has still been following its own nice to see that little pullback, especially off of 10. I mean, you're up

[2:49:09] company that's not a small cap or a penny stock. So, it is a great trade. mean, 4 days, it took four days. I mean, this thing could take less than 24 hours days. It it's a quick acting stock, so we'll know in a very short amount of

[2:49:25] time for sure. Um, but no, just at the same time as we >> Oh, yeah. Instant fill. Instant. Instant fill. Yeah, instant fill. widespread, too. I was surprised to get an instant fill. I thought for sure I

[2:49:38] little bit there, but >> we'll take it. Some people are scared of [laughter] Give me the position in my account. I want it right now. >> Um, looking at this NASDAQ, it look like NASDAQ is is getting pretty weak. Uh

[2:49:51] we're trying to test this day low over here, which actually is very close to our value area low. So, we could potentially look to do something gets. So, we'll just take a we'll keep a quick eye on it. Um a lot more sellers

[2:50:07] kind of coming into the market here. Um since we have a little bit of a cushion on the day, we'll submit this. Um and then we'll exit this at the same together. I mean, we don't we don't usually get trades while we're live. for

[2:50:20] the most part. So, we got Rivian, we got a little bit of the micro NASDAQ. We're right now. Um, but we're going to manage our risk because if we continue to make lower lows in on the day, uh, then it's going to be it's going to be trouble

[2:50:33] going to be it's going to be trouble and, uh, considering how aggressive and downside, things can change very quickly. So, it's really important we pay attention to that risk. Um, and let's see watermark. So, okay, so we can

[2:50:47] rightclick the screen. And we can go ahead and put in a sell stop down at the low if we would like. What did that say? Sell 100. Wow. I don't got 100 micro contracts. [laughter] There we go.

[2:51:01] >> Yeah, good good use of the good use of the tools here. >> Yeah, but if I if I could uh if I could get on this stop order. So, we're going to go to the ladder. Going to go to the ladder. Put this stop at this low

[2:51:13] 29,611. So, let's see if we can put the stop in. 29,611. We'll scroll down here. Uh we're just going to use a ladder to do this. 611. There we go.

[2:51:28] >> Check out slate trucks. They're a simple daily driver. Not practical for these. >> Slate slate trucks. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I I did just see these. I uh Yeah. It's they're they're

[2:51:41] EVs. Uh semi-affordable [clears throat] EV trucks. I just to me and I will say I've I've spent a grand total of I don't know 30 seconds giving giving these slate trucks any thought but to me it feels like they're coming in very close

[2:51:56] to the price point of a Tesla. And unless you really wanted a a pickup things. I don't really understand why anyone would gravitate towards these yeah unless you want a pickup truck specifically or you just really dislike

[2:52:09] Elon. So I suppose there's two two use cases that actually do encompass a for slate. Um but yeah, I think this is certainly an interesting concept and uh I mean as a as a consumer I think more competition in the US EV space is is

[2:52:22] always a good thing. I don't disagree with keeping these Chinese EVs out because it would just totally obliterate US companies. I I can understand the line of logic they were going there. Uh I mean you could definitely make the

[2:52:34] market be a free market and I I wouldn't push back on that. And I I I think that that's correct, but I I agree with the preservation of the American EV space by by keeping those guys out. But it is, you know, inherently anti-competitive in

[2:52:47] get going over here to drive these EV prices down, I welcome all of it. >> No, 100%. Uh, and yes, fleets. And that and that's a great point as well, Shane. you know, to see how see how fleets work out. Fleets would be a great application

[2:53:00] for for these slate trucks, particularly people who need fleets of pickup trucks and want electric. that is a a a giant addressable market as well. So, yeah, I >> I was just [laughter] about to say >> I I see I I see the vision. I wouldn't

[2:53:13] get one myself, but I see the vision. >> I'm not a big fan of the the EV trucks it's just that that nostalgia feeling about uh just just having that that I can do it with a car, I can do it with the SUV. When it comes down to a truck,

[2:53:27] for me to get around. But, I mean, never been the big truck guy, but I don't [laughter] >> It's true. is a day for everybody. >> 100%. >> Might be whipping a Chevy Colorado EV by

[2:53:41] raised Colorado. It might be only right. It might be right it's crazy when I see people with like their their dy like clapped out F F-150s, F250s. It's just I don't even think it's too much. I'm I'm a proponent

[2:53:54] of doing want to do that. Yeah. For me, for sure. Yeah. When I was in Texas, I I better. Big state, big roads, everything's bigger, as they say. Uh but city, I'm just like, man, that would just be such a pain. I mean, just doing

[2:54:07] name >> turning tight corners, you you just drive over the corner. [laughter] >> I I suppose you could unless unless that there. Um but yeah, like the Colorado, the the Rangers, the uh you

[2:54:20] know, the what's the Toyota one? >> Uh >> Don't tell me in my ear. Damn it. my year. Not Tacomaomas. What I was >> Oh, Tacoma. [laughter] Tacomaomas hold their value like crazy. I remember being

[2:54:35] older Tacomaomas. And I mean, the resale value for those things, they must build specifically. Great resale value. >> Shout out to the wonderful Laura Thomas on production for for chiming in my ear with that. I I cannot I cannot take I

[2:54:49] Tacoma myself. >> I I heard Tacoma in my ear and I kept saying Tundra. Um, but with this position, we're going to go ahead and start to manage this position here soon. Um, right now we got long NASDAQ at

[2:55:02] around 29,638. Right now, we're up about 60 70 80 points right now. If we could make it near one of these swing highs, uh, we'll minutes here, so we'll try and manage this one before we get off. Um, and this

[2:55:17] because we had we started with a little bit of a cushion for the day. So, we were up about 160 bucks. So, whenever you have pull the trigger whenever whenever you get an opportunity later in the day

[2:55:29] because then you can risk about maybe 25% 30% 50% or whatever you made early in the day. And if the market goes against you, cool, you're out for 50 whatever. At least you manage your risk. You're still taking some of the

[2:55:41] opportunities. So, uh, with that being said, uh, I wish we had a little bit manage this soon. If the market makes new lows, we'll leave our stop there and kind of just accept whatever the market gives us. Um, but with that being said,

[2:55:54] the day? I know it's going to be a longer weekend. >> Um, yeah. I I briefly saw somebody allude to to Micron in the chat earlier. I It's It's going to happen. The thing The thing that I said would be hilarious

[2:56:07] going to happen. I'm going to try to short SanDisk three times on the way up I decide to get long, I'm going to lose my long, too. That's That's how this is looking. Need Sandisk back over 2,000 ASAP. No Rocky. That's That's my closing

[2:56:20] Closing thoughts. Uh we're still kind of trading within that range. And if now. So maybe this still kind of continues to do whatever you needed to do. Uh but no, again, with that being said, we will manage this micro NASDAQ

[2:56:35] position. Um it's looking like Oh, I thought that was NASDAQ for a second. I was like, "Oh, wow. This thing's pretty aggressive." That was Micron. Um Oh, that trade? It's the uh it's the follow feed in the in the Tasty Trade platform.

[2:56:48] Uh if you're on desktop or or mobile, there will be a uh a little icon with like head outlines, little little gray heads. Uh you can click on that. It'll our all of our trades from all of our talent are are posted there 24/7 365 as

[2:57:02] they say. But as we will start to close this trade here, actually things are was kind of kicking in and the momentum to the downside's a little aggressive. trade. But as Gus was mentioning, we can find all these trades on the follow

[2:57:14] some of the entries, exits, and managements, uh, you can go ahead and do mind before we wrap? >> Ant saying he's following me into the Rivian trade. Let's let's do it. Ant, good. I like it. Yeah, we'll uh Yeah,

[2:57:27] back to the moon. That's the plan. >> There we go. Um, with that being said, here since we're getting a little bit more momentum. Um, wow. It is I will taking some of those positions while we're [laughter] not going to lie. I was

[2:57:42] >> Yeah. Yeah. Brain's going everywhere. But with that being said, um longer for winning the game last night. It was such a good one. Uh I think England and then we'll have Belgium and USA on Monday. So with that being said,

[2:57:57] [laughter] with that being said, we'll see how uh things play over the weekend. appreciate your time and be sure to stay tuned for more amazing content coming up of July and we'll see you guys next time.

[2:58:28] from this morning. Bodacia, our raid really distracted me. I was like, "Get away from me, uncontrollable fire." >> I told you, Tasty Cracks, you can't plunder with headphones on. Light pillaging. Maybe sometimes I'll hide in

[2:58:42] a gross Pete bug in the middle of a raid just so I don't miss market measures. >> I'm only recently comfortable admitting this, BUT I THINK I TRUST MARKET MEASURES MORE THAN I TRUST MY SAVAGE HELLHOR.

[2:58:59] slaughtered a horde of conformants this morning. Did the whole terrifying row of severed heads on pikes as a warning thing, but you never know with those thing, but you never know with those idiots. Okay, thanks for the heads up.

[2:59:18] >> Normally I hate puns, but that one was okay.

[2:59:30] >> We built Tasty Trades web platform for today's traders. See it, click it, trade it. Research with fundamentals, analyst forecasts, and more. Drill into data, find opportunity, and track the action with [music] hundreds of indicators.

[2:59:45] Track your options, profit, and loss history over time per symbol. Note your progress, and plan your tactics with a trading journal. See probabilities, max profit, and Greeks in one click. Fund your account and start trading [music]

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[3:00:15] >> Yes. I bet you can't guess how many hours a week I work. >> 60. >> 61. >> So close. >> Oh, my day is starting out great. Want

[3:00:28] to go double or nothing? >> Let's see. What color are jeans? >> You got it. >> Color of jeans. They write songs about >> I thought it was tough. >> Double. I win double.

[3:00:42] >> Yes. And you get nothing. >> I'll pay you in love. [laughter] >> That's not how this one works. >> I will pay you in hugs and kisses. >> Uh there is no hug and kiss worth a million. Cool. [laughter]

[3:00:56] >> I can make it worth 2 million. >> I've I've kissed you before and it's not that good. Woo. This is what I love. Every time the game hurts you, she gives >> What do you mean I don't kiss good? >> You're awful. You're very mouthy. Man,

[3:01:11] this feels good. Oh, this is why I do it. All right, come on. Let's keep the matter? >> I just I didn't know I was mouthy. not. You should practice more. >> Okay, my turn.

[3:01:24] >> Okay. Try to make a little money back. >> Okay. You want to go big? Let's go. I'll >> [laughter] >> I'll get in this man's game. >> $5 million. >> $5 million and a speedboat.

[3:01:39] >> Uh-huh. >> This is serious. Yes. Take the bet. >> Oh, boy. Here we go. >> I bet I know the name of your childhood friend. [laughter] >> Nobody knows the name.

[3:01:51] >> Oh, >> Lenny Caneler. [bell] Tasty Trade has crypto and you can trade with zero commissions. [music] Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and more.

[3:02:06] Diversify in one place. Crypto. We got it. We get it.

[3:02:29] long. We're back. How are you? >> I'm doing great. Thanks, Chris. Um, >> I'm doing great. Thanks, Chris. Um, yeah, it's uh, you know, Chris, um, one of my favorite things is to hear you talk, but also to hear myself talk and

[3:02:43] just any opportunity I can go blah blah blah blah blah about anything. My wife gets sick and wait a second. No, she got sick of me about 20 years ago talking about trading. So, I can't talk to her about trading anymore. Otherwise, she

[3:02:58] just falls asleep. Chris, you and the Tasty Nation are my only avenue for this stuff. So, I appreciate it. I appreciate it. it. Chris, this is a pretty blah day as far

[3:03:13] as the S&P goes. I mean, the VIX is up one tick. We had a good We had a nice little selloff over the past hour or so, and the VIX did not respond. S&P is now

[3:03:25] up four bucks right now. It was down a little bit. Down what about 10 I think uh few minutes ago. Now it's up four bucks. This is This is a dull day. Dull day. No trading volumes. S&P 500. Not a surprise. It's the day before a

[3:03:40] major holiday. We're at 867,000 contracts traded, which maybe I take that back. That's actually not too light of a day. Um either way though, TP, we're looking at this holiday weekend coming up. There's been weakened gap

[3:03:52] risk recently for various reasons. Is that something that you find yourself concerned with? But maybe not. You're more of a zero DTE guy these days. >> Well, no. It's I mean I sold I sold an 8day uh SpaceX uh put spread this

[3:04:07] 8day uh SpaceX uh put spread this morning. Um what did I do? I sold morning. Um what did I do? I sold One moment please.

[3:04:19] spread with 8 days to go. It goes out um yeah next Friday. I sold it for 55. It's I I'm trading through the weekend. I don't really care about it so much. Um

[3:04:33] who knows what's going to happen over the weekend, but you know, think about It's not necessarily going to be an economic event. The payroll data or the unemployment that it came out this morning, okay, that's done. They're not

[3:04:47] going to do that over the weekend. What's going to happen? Um, some more missiles shot or whatever over the straight of Hormuz. We've seen that happen over the past couple of weeks and no one seems to care

[3:05:01] couple of weeks and no one seems to care anymore. So, you tell me, Chris, what can happen over the next 3 days before Monday's open that is going to drive Monday's open that is going to drive this market much higher or much lower?

[3:05:21] maybe the war with Iran resumes. >> Yeah, but still And so my >> kind of why I'm scratching scratching my be. >> So what's what's interesting right now

[3:05:34] is about and this was about I I did a snapshot about 15 minutes ago. 60% of snapshot about 15 minutes ago. 60% of the S&P 500 65% of the S&P 500 stocks

[3:05:46] are up on the day. >> Okay. 65% are up. Um some of the big names are down. Okay. Some of the biggest stocks and I've got my standard deviation metric right now. The biggest losers, uh Tesla was down 2.14 standard

[3:06:03] losers, uh Tesla was down 2.14 standard deviations. Big move down at Tesla. Um, deviations. Big move down at Tesla. Um, uh, Meta was down 1 standard deviation. Meta is a big loser. Clack, SanDisk,

[3:06:16] um, AAT, um, Royal, RCL, Royal Caribbean down, that that's an outlier. Uh, Sienna, Huelet, Packard, a lot of those chip Huelet, Packard, a lot of those chip stocks are down big, fairly large cap

[3:06:31] stocks. And you think, okay, maybe that would pull the S&Ps down. But it really hasn't. It really hasn't. The bulk of the stocks are up today. Some of the biggest movers up from a standard deviation point of view. Uh let's see.

[3:06:45] deviation point of view. Uh let's see. Um Apple up 2.24 standard deviations. Cut pretty much the inverse of Tesla. Um we have stocks like GI Gill Gild obviously. >> Gilead is being strong today. Um some of

[3:07:01] the other stock like CocaCola is up a lot today. Walmart has bounced back. Um the drug stocks like um well you say Gilead uh Amgen

[3:07:14] Gilead uh Amgen um ABBV Abbey whatever you call it REGGN Fizer is up. A lot of those drug stocks are up today. Um >> here by the way the the biotech sector ETF was just chopping around for like

[3:07:29] the first five and a half months of the year 6 months. It's exploded higher here in the past two weeks. >> What is it? IBB. >> IBB biotech ETF. Yeah. >> What are the options in there like? So,

[3:07:42] heavily traded. The the markets are wide. There's not I mean, look at the >> Yeah. Okay. And fair enough. And so, this is and I think this is an important this is and I think this is an important point is what Chris and I do all day

[3:07:56] long as traders is go through possibilities. So, I have my list of symbols and metrics that I like to sort things out by. Chris [snorts] has his. He goes through his list. I go through my list. Always looking for the next

[3:08:10] trade. Neither of us waste time on things that we can't actually trade efficiently. Can you trade IBB? Of course you could trade IBB. You just buy the stock if you think it's going to go up. But again, $194,

[3:08:28] it's a pricey stock for, you know, just just to just to buy. Um, and I'm not talking valuation. I'm just talking $194, you know, to buy a 100 shares. $194, you know, to buy a 100 shares. It's $19,000 of cash. The options

[3:08:42] though, like Chris said, it it took Chris about 5 seconds to see, oh, there's no volume and those options look hard to trade. I agree. Move on. And that's that's what we do. >> Yeah. and even in XLV which is higher

[3:08:57] still at 10 cents wide that's not terrible I suppose terrible I suppose >> well looking at yeah so so in in XLV and I haven't traded XLV in a while but there's 355,000

[3:09:14] there's 355,000 uh open interest on the puts of the 160 puts in the July expiration there's 6,000 open in the 155 5 put. So there is 6,000 open in the 155 5 put. So there is trading in XLV. Um I may just Chris,

[3:09:29] what are you bullish? Bearish on XLV? >> You know, I'm I'm I'm bullish. I know it's a 54 IVR and yes, the IV itself is only 16. So it's not fantastic, but I looks like it's breaking out after trading up I mean 2024 highs. We just

[3:09:44] finally punched through them again in a fairly decisive way. So I'm thinking this looks like a long delta trade in some form or fashion. Short premium perhaps. We'll have to explore that. >> Chris, that's a good enough reason to me

[3:09:57] want to see if I can get filled. So, I'm going to sell the 5961 the So, I'm buying the 159 put. Selling the 161 put in the July expiration. Mid

[3:10:09] the 161 put in the July expiration. Mid price is 56 cents. Let's Let's try 56. See if I get it. Submit. See if we get filled. >> Working. Nothing done. Nothing. >> A little bit longer out here. And one

[3:10:22] want to give myself time to see if we get breakout confirmation here. So pocket. If this is really breaking out, then we just kind of want to let the market do the heavy lifting here. >> This a small thing small uh no indicator

[3:10:35] correct all the time. But I use indicators to uh to examine the developing relationship between price and say the moving averages. And for what it's worth, closing basis, every day we've touched our oneweek moving

[3:10:50] average here on the screen for the past two weeks. We haven't closed below it. That seems to be like the thrust level right now. So, should we close back breakout's going to hold. I see that pivot low from two days ago. 15796.

[3:11:03] That's level I like to operate around. So, I'm going out to 50 days. 155 here. Uh risk-to-reward collecting 63 cents credit. I'm um I'm not crazy about that TP. I for

[3:11:17] shorter duration cycle >> and and and I agree. It's and and everybody watching this is you get into something. Okay, XLV, maybe analysis. Good enough for me. I'm going

[3:11:32] sell that put spread. I'm not I'm not done. I'm nothing done on my on my 5961 put spread, but I'm not going to chase it. I am not going to I'm not you know

[3:11:44] if I were that confident I make it might take it down a penny. So um you know I'm at 55 cents for that put spread. Again a little bit less than I typically like to get but okay fine I'll I'll play. Um but I'm not I cautious against taking it

[3:12:00] down to 55. Wouldn't give them I'm not going to take it down to 54 simply because it's I I already have enough stuff on today. Um, and I don't I don't stuff on today. Um, and I don't I don't need to generate more theta than I

[3:12:15] trade. If I could get filled, I'd be happy, but I'm not going to chase it. And this is it's it's Chris. How many symbols do you go through before you actually put on a

[3:12:30] rolling or closing or that sort of stuff. How many symbols do you typically look at till you find find an opportunity? >> people watch. I you know like I I know there we all talk about diversification,

[3:12:47] right? Um >> it's very important. On the other hand, every single day. You have your watch list of products that you like to trade, that you know how to operate, and that you have a feel for. Stick to them.

[3:13:01] >> I don't want to over complicate it. >> Yeah. See, that's just it. But again, you know, you said 30 pretty quickly. The same I mean, I'll I'll look at yeah, maybe a few more than that, but if I'm going to do, let's say,

[3:13:16] you think doing let's say 20 trades a day. Yeah, I'm always going back to S&Ps, crude oil, that sort of thing. But new stuff, I might have to go through a hundred symbols to find 20 trades. Okay.

[3:13:34] the sector ETFs because if I see a sector ETF set up that I like and it's like, no, I should go investigate the individual holdings now and see if opportunities there. So, it's like a 30

[3:13:46] should be looking >> 100%. So, this is this is what active trading is about. It doesn't necessarily mean that we're always getting executed. we're always looking at the market, evaluating stuff, and trying to find

[3:14:02] opportunity XLV, right? Looking at the premium selling here, I'm I'm not keen on that given the raw volatility sitting at 17%. But what I do see that makes this an interesting opportunity is that we have been trading sideways in a

[3:14:16] pretty defined range for the past several months going back to October. So, I'm looking at 142 up to 160, 18 bucks, 178. where I could take advantage of this market's upward drip, but give myself

[3:14:30] that's going to be something like the long 1701 175 sitting at 50 days to expiration risking one to make four. I'm comfortable with that TP. I know it's a way to express this view that if the market's breaking out and I can't

[3:14:44] can take similar levels of risk with greater upside. And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. It's 100 bucks. >> I get it. How about Merc MRK? Anyway, I know we got to wrap things up, but but this is Chris and I could go on like

[3:14:59] this is Chris and I could go on like this for the next 5 hours. Okay. Hey Chris, what do you think of Merc? Hey Chris, what do you think of this? And this is >> I feel like I should buy some Merc. I

[3:15:11] looks great. >> Well, see this is this is this is my whole point is if I can't get filled on XLV, can I get filled on Merc? >> So that's the idea. That's kind of beautiful. Hey TP, unfortunately we

[3:15:25] don't have you for the full 30 here. We have you for 15. U I I believe you're done here for the day on air. So I hope that you have a wonderful holiday >> Thank you, Chris. And I hope you do too with your family.

[3:15:39] coming in next. Glenn's going to talk us through some of this macro. We're go over to the futures. We're going to go to FX. Why don't we bring in our friend? They call him Glenn F. That's what his friends call him.

[3:15:51] >> The one and only. How we doing, Chris? >> Uh, feeling rejuvenated in the soul of Bill Simmons complain about the Celtics 76ers trade in between my time had to get some water. I needed some food. Listening to Bill Simmons wine.

[3:16:07] >> nice weekend. >> Some good soul juice, some good positive You get these you get these big talking sports heads who have been just absolutely smashing the Knicks, the Mets, the Jet, and now that the Knicks

[3:16:21] won and watching all these other teams blow themselves up to respond to my New York Knicks, it's um it's a set of circumstances I never thought I'd ever >> But they're they're breaking they're breaking up the super team. You mad

[3:16:33] about Big Mitch heading over to where's he going? Celtics. Mitchell Robinson. >> Big Mitch is uh is a is a someone who lives here in town. So, uh, having seen basketball games on Saturdays. He He's genuinely a very good It sucks to see

[3:16:49] him go. But the second apron is awful in the NBA, five years, otherwise your draft picks are frozen. You can't sign any players, they're going to be in it the next two years. They can't get into it this year.

[3:17:03] extension plus Cats. You got to save the second apron years for those two guys. So Mitch got to go. >> Fair enough. I could talk about this a probably move on. [laughter] Glenn, uh, today's been a little bit of

[3:17:17] market. S&P had a little bit of a pop. It jumped towards 7,600. It has since backed off. It's down 10 points on the day. One of the drivers in today's session was that movement in yields after that uh, non-farm payrolls report

[3:17:30] briefly once the show started. I've been audience can give me some credit, too. We've stayed very far away from the terms of that report, 4.2% 2% unemployment rate, 57K on the actual

[3:17:44] jobs print itself there. Uh the dollar, despite that volatility in equities, two-year yields are lower today. The dollar index here is lower as well.

[3:17:56] dollar may have been putting in a major so when looking at today's chart and the pullback, this is technically speaking a pullback to the actual breakout level that we've been looking at for over a

[3:18:11] year right now. So the question to you is today the day to buy the dip in the >> God, that is the question. And uh you teed it up perfectly because uh you

[3:18:24] could depending on you know I feel like it's it's hard to uh put away some emotional feelings of how you've perhaps played this rate story line in in the

[3:18:36] past but just trading what's in front of you. You're absolutely right and it's hard not to think that uh a one-off jobs report uh softer than expected still very healthy is you know the the make or

[3:18:49] break it for uh the Fed here saying okay you know only 50,000 jobs added in June you know only 50,000 jobs added in June um no more hikes everyone wins. Um it's hard to see that scenario especially after worse this week saying you know

[3:19:04] these these monthly indicators that are lagards he's looking for in the next 12 lagards he's looking for in the next 12 months to use AI to to get a whole new look for the Fed um in terms of what real-time data looks like. though if you

[3:19:20] think that this is kind of a blip in the radar and markets respecting it uh a bit more than I would have expected the move in dollar and across asset classes that

[3:19:32] you'd expect gold big pop um crypto has the the the top lifted at least for the the the the top lifted at least for the day um more of these assets that you'd expect um that have been hampered by the expectation of rate hikes yields of

[3:19:46] course um really getting a strong move today. So you respect it as much as the market is, but is it giving you a favorable entry point if you think rate hikes are still on the table?

[3:20:01] >> Yeah. I mean, I think that's the qu right. We have this retrenchment in rate right. We have this retrenchment in rate um rate hike odds for uh for September, focusing on here. So according to the C Fed watch tool yesterday, there was a

[3:20:14] 64.2% 2% chance of at least one hike by September. >> Um, technically speaking, a 14.3% chance of two 25 basis point hikes. Today, it's now sitting at a uh 53.9% chance of at least one hike. So, that's

[3:20:30] come in meaningfully here. The two-year yield has come in, but a September hike is still favored for what it's worth. And so, unless that turns off, Glenn, I don't see how the dollar is going to go on a major losing streak, at least in

[3:20:42] other central banks that are backing off and have much worse situations. That's why I'm focusing on the euro right here because as nice the dollar index looks above part. This is very clearly we can go back to what last May

[3:20:55] go back to what last May >> May 29th 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 touches breaking out pullback. So if you're going to buy a breakout you either have to be there pullback as mechanically it makes sense. Traders who were long for the breakout

[3:21:10] breakout, they want to take their profit. This is a chance for people to reload. So, the euro is the largest component of the dollar index, 57.6% of DXY. So, if we're going to see the dollar potentially falling back into

[3:21:24] stand to reason that the euro's moving back into former support turn resistance, which is what it's doing here today. And it's failing against one-mon moving average is coming into play. So, keeping all of that in mind,

[3:21:38] this may be an opportunity here for a short call spread right now in Euro dollar, which is something I'm already doing here. I'm short the 155 1.5 116. already in it, >> I would be putting it on here today. And

[3:21:53] in fact, uh, thinking about this right now, could we go 1178? What does that look like in terms of risk-to-reward? That's not fantastic. We don't need a That's not fantastic. We don't need a risk one to make or risk 15 to make one.

[3:22:05] Um >> yeah and the just to layer on the the kind of validating uh uh line of thought for this Euro dollar play is you are seeing just across the board uh I of course looking more granularly at dollar

[3:22:19] exposure what's moving where it's a pretty blanket uh US dollar story. So you don't have to look any further than the euro. I mean, the yen's been interesting. A huge move there from a a pip value basis, but still, I mean, uh,

[3:22:35] right now we're retracing back to dollar lows. Um, I mean this uh Japanese yen sank half a percent in the first 30 minutes uh of that non-farm payroll

[3:22:48] report, but that's been getting bought up almost immediately that just traders and market participants, you know, begging the the Bank of Japan to trying to call their bluff. Um, every big dip in that um dollar yen has been been

[3:23:05] bought up. Um, but that's still one to watch. We're still at 161. I know you were you had traded uh kind of a divergence from that 160. Were you able or 161? Were you able to take that off on the upside? We got a whole 100 points

[3:23:20] to the upside uh before this recent shake out. >> I I purchased the 0064 call in the case of an intervention, which um you know, anything. There's no not seeing a price there, but maybe a $100 loss. I I think

[3:23:36] around the holiday here, I mean, yields are down. You just got a bad jobs BUJ and the Ministry of Finance want if key level of 160 in dollar yen? They have not near a peep. But you can see

[3:23:51] today how maybe the market thinks that we're getting ready to turn a corner. above yesterday's high. We're about to close below yesterday's low. That's 161 uh 07 we'll call it in dollar yen spot rate. That's a bearish outside engulfing

[3:24:05] bar and it's at the top of a trend. It's at the top of a level that we haven't been in 40 plus years. That is a key reversal if I've ever seen one. And so we we frequently say how the BOJ doesn't really like to swim against the tides.

[3:24:17] conditions to be in place. They like >> before they ultimately so they get the buck, bang for their yen. here, >> there is still that yen intervention

[3:24:30] not like nothing can be done with it by the time this closes out, but thinking about like what does a potential volatility inflation trade look like? 654 short 65 risking one to make

[3:24:48] 7006. I mean, there are ways to operate around that we need to be considerate of here. It's already a 60 pip rally today in the intervention yet. And now the table may be a little bit better set. So having

[3:25:03] don't think is the worst thing in the world, especially if you're already long have traded on opposite sides of the equation for many years. >> Yeah, you nailed it. That, you know, of course the sentiment is the yen isn't

[3:25:18] really going to help itself. It needs an external catalyst in the form of dollar weakness. And it's gotten that. you layer on top of when the last time the Bank of Japan intervened. It was during the Japanese holiday uh golden week. So

[3:25:34] thin liquidity conditions riding the coattails that does favor, you know, a possibility for a move tomorrow um and whatnot. And

[3:25:46] on that backdrop, I'd contend that the spot market's actually a better place to be looking over the weekend. Um although liquidity will be thin, you have uh markets open tomorrow in the spot market. You can get in and out of this

[3:26:02] market. You can get in and out of this at at all times up until the weekend. Um and try to catch that move if it's there. Um whatever hours uh put your take profits, what have you. um and start small enough to perhaps layer in

[3:26:16] if this is more of a wait and see because the one thing we do know is because the one thing we do know is nobody's comfortable even with um this nobody's comfortable even with um this slight uh bid back in the yen. Nobody is

[3:26:29] comfortable with the yen at these levels at least historically. >> So yen, strong yen day today, weak dollar day today. Uh really the weak dollar is kind of the story at least when it goes into the the commodity FX

[3:26:41] rate space. uh in so far as when you're looking at gold's up, silver's up, uh a little bit better. But stocks here as we get ready for this weekend, Glenn, reversal. We're almost 80 points off the highs from the session 7523. You'd like

[3:26:55] to say it was spurred on by the non-firm payrolls report, but that I, you know, immediately after NFP. It held there for a few minutes, pulled back, then rallied again. So seeing a decline start around 10:20 in the morning. I don't think we

[3:27:09] related selloff. Particularly when you see that rates here SR3Z6 year end Fed see that rates here SR3Z6 year end Fed funds you get that bump right in rate Stocks go up. Rate hike odds have not moved all day long.

[3:27:24] >> That's one of the, you know, one of the particularities about the market move. about the Fed in the way because of the non-farm payroll report. So I just want will battle about this later on, but I

[3:27:36] just show it to me. Show it to me on the charts. It's not true of anything else. >> Yeah, it's definitely a murkier picture for uh stocks today. And and to your where you kind of want to look and and

[3:27:48] a pretty clean setup. If you do look at more of those rate sensitive asset classes, gold having a day as expected uh across the curve. But if you are primarily an equities trader, indexes

[3:28:01] hard read, hard to pin on these macro conditions. Um, and you you certainly have a lot of funky moves in the individual names. So, uh, not a day where I'd get too crazy and, uh, look to something new. Um, but

[3:28:18] I don't like having anything that's close to 21 DTE when I go into holiday weekends. I do not want to I really don't want to think about the markets or gosh, this is what you guys love. Yeah, we love this stuff,

[3:28:31] >> but I like hot dogs, too, Chris. >> Yeah. And I want to watch baseball and I to wear my American flag, you know, overalls and jumpsuit around town. >> I'm going to need a picture of that. >> Uh

[3:28:46] that's that's for the premium service there. Hold [laughter] on. Um [snorts] do you want we have a pro? No, there's no tasty.com/chrisal that up on the screen. Uh, you know, I mean, like I don't I don't like putting

[3:29:00] going to be shorterdated when we have 3 days until we're reason like Friday, this thing potentially in some stocks or ETFs until Monday. Monday when I can have both hands on the steering wheel as opposed to like you

[3:29:14] comes out over the weekend. >> I prefer not to operate by that way. So, positions I have over the course of the day. I still have this S&P short iron condor on, which is, you know, it's moving around a little bit. It's not

[3:29:28] We're getting close to touching the downside strikes, but if we get a little probably going to lift it off. Other than that, here, uh, Rivian, I'm still Gus here this morning talking about Rivian. Let me in right before it

[3:29:43] >> right before it broke out and I couldn't get I still can't get filled. So, um, we will see there. Hey Glenn, it's been a very speedy morning here on uh on Tasty vacation here, so I want to thank everyone for sticking with us through

[3:29:57] this non-farm perils Thursday. It's a synthetic Friday here. Of course, Tasty throughout the course of the day. Uh we do have some video on demand coming up to what's important. Dr. Jim Schultz is here 2:30 Eastern, 1:30 Central with

[3:30:12] them to practice. Tim Knight's coming on with Trading Charts at 2:15 Central wrapping up the day and the week on last call 3:30 Eastern, 2:30 Central. So we will see you there. Glenn, thanks so much. You've been watching Tasty Live.

[3:30:40] best ways you can help us are by liking the video or subscribing to the channel. Either one of those guys would really help us out a ton.