Harvard Professor Answers Iran War Questions | Tech Support | WIRED

[00:00] by the side that has the longest list of kills. that achieves its strategic objectives. Let's answer your questions from the internet.

[00:13] [upbeat percussive music] that Iran already has nuclear weapons?"

[00:26] First of all, there's no public information The United States government hasn't alleged Israel hasn't said that the Iranians have a nuclear weapon,

[00:39] haven't said they have a nuclear weapon. because the main use of nuclear weapons that the Iranians are suffering now.

[00:53] You often hear people say that Iran is two weeks away. They don't mean that Iran is two weeks away that it could deliver a nuclear warhead

[01:07] What they mean is that Iran is two weeks away for them to actually be able to build a nuclear bomb.

[01:19] Uranium basically exists in nature in two forms. which is not good for building bombs, which is a kind of unstable form, called uranium-235,

[01:34] but it exists in nature in very small quantities. is basically increasing the concentration of uranium-235.

[01:49] you only need to get to about 3% of uranium-235. you need to get to 90% enrichment.

[02:01] and it's estimated that if they wanted to go to 90%, Even then, once they have enough enriched uranium there's still a lot of steps between that

[02:16] They have to develop an explosive core, they have to put it on a delivery system, and all of those steps are ones that we can detect

[02:30] And so, Iranians are close but they're further away from having the bomb itself. "Was the Iran Nuclear Deal a good thing?

[02:47] was something called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the JCPOA, which was a deal that was signed by Iran, France, China, Russia, and Germany in 2015,

[03:04] in which the Iranians agreed to essentially give up in exchange for sanctions relief. to the much higher level needed to build nuclear bombs.

[03:18] that they stockpiled. they agreed to a very serious regime the International Atomic Energy Agency.

[03:32] People who think it was a good thing say, We got the Iranians to put their nuclear program on ICE, point out that first of all,

[03:45] were set to sunset or to expire "Well, this is just putting a pause and after 15 years, they're gonna race to a bomb."

[03:59] was they felt the inspections were not strong enough, particularly with respect to some of Iran's military sites. And then they also were concerned that the sanctions relief

[04:13] that they could spend on their proxies like Hezbollah And so, when President Trump got elected, and he did undo the deal and opted instead

[04:29] which is really intended to squeeze the Iranians, and also to make sure that they did not get They responded by basically enriching uranium,

[04:43] that are enriched to about 60%, When President Biden came back into office, but the Iranians didn't wanna go back to the deal of 2015,

[05:00] they wanted guarantees the same way that President Trump That was obviously something

[05:12] So, was the Iranian deal a good thing? it was good, but it probably wasn't good enough. Iran and the United States have many deep disagreements

[05:26] that a limited deal on just Iran's nuclear program of all of the other things we disagree on.

[05:38] "Is Iran really that much of a threat One view, which is the view held is that, absolutely, Iran is a threat to the US.

[05:51] First of all, the Iranians have made no secret since 1979 about their very strong enmity to the United States. [speaks in Persian], death to America.

[06:04] When that regime came into being, was the taking of hostages These hostages, about 50 of them,

[06:18] Since then, Iran has invested in proxies like Hezbollah, which killed almost 250 Americans in a suicide bombing And then, of course, there is the fact

[06:33] and some people say also developing a missile program to deliver whatever nuclear weapons they develop

[06:45] So, that's the argument of those who say Iran is a threat. "Look, Iran was aspiring regional power at best. If it represents a threat, it's mainly to Israel

[06:59] and it's eminently manageable." is driven by a lot of internal conflicts. And if we would just stop rattling the Iranian cage,

[07:15] who want to change it would have a chance of success around the flag in that country. Today, now that we're at open war with the Iranians,

[07:30] The aptly named Dangerous-Cost6367 asks, and why does it matter so much?" Here is the Strait of Hormuz, this very narrow waterway.

[07:45] That is in the territorial waters of Iran Iran has about 12% of the world's proven oil reserves. passes about 20% of the world's oil.

[08:04] out of what's called the Persian Arabian Gulf, Now, Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that lets it send some The Emiratis have a pipeline that also allows them

[08:20] And when there is risk here, that gets priced into energy markets, and you and I pay higher prices at the pump.

[08:34] that you might've heard people talk about. and that's a major Iranian facility

[08:46] And there is now a proposal to actually seize Kharg Island, The second is actually on the other side

[09:02] That's called the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and that separates Yemen from Africa on the Red Sea. has to ultimately go through Bab al-Mandab.

[09:16] We're talking there about 10 to 15% of world trade. An organization called Ansar Allah, They are an Iranian client

[09:30] and interdict shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. the Iranians have the ability newt8991 asks, "What would a realistic win for the US

[09:49] Well, if you listen to President Trump, we've already won. in the history of winning. He often points to the tremendous battlefield achievements

[10:02] that we are taking out their air force, But here's the thing, by the side that has the longest list of kills.

[10:17] that achieves its strategic objectives. well, first of all, President said we'd ended so it was a question as to what we need

[10:31] to really, really end the Iranian nuclear program. because we will never be assured that Iran's nuclear program is completely obliterated until we have figured out

[10:46] and so that might indeed require Other people say that we will have achieved victory with a democratic or at least America-friendly regime.

[11:03] that might require a very sustained military engagement. is that though the bar for victory for us might be high, All they need to do is survive.

[11:19] seemingly completely unrelated countries?" So, the Iranians have been launching missiles but they've also been launching at Kuwait,

[11:36] They even launched an attack on Oman and Saudi Arabia. "We're not hitting random countries. We're targeting American facilities in those countries,

[11:53] Or as they did in Saudi Arabia, the American Embassy. is because what they wanna do in the hope of getting the Americans

[12:08] and we need to make a deal with the Iranians. has taken more fire than Israel. than all of the other countries combined,

[12:23] is because the UAE is such an important economic hub. So far, those countries have been calling for restraint, and they haven't joined the US and Israeli war effort,

[12:39] But regardless of whether they joined the war and Israel from the sidelines, people are gonna ask why the Iranians

[12:54] forced them from neutrality into open hostility. called "How to Lose Friends and Alienate People."

[13:06] Tidewatcher7819 asks, "If President Trump would it be a long war or an easy victory?" If the United States has a more limited aim,

[13:19] like seizing the enriched uranium or taking Kharg Island, but there's no reason to expect if the US remained focused on task

[13:35] But if the ground invasion took place with the aim of replacing the regime with one that's more friendly to us, that that would be a very long war

[13:51] of the kind that we experienced in Afghanistan and in Iraq. is very adept at war fighting, and they would absolutely put up a major fight

[14:04] should we try to invade the Iranian homeland. who trained Hezbollah and who trained the Houthis, how would the Iranian people themselves greet us?

[14:18] as replaying a century-long script There's definitely those who say that we could go into Iran

[14:32] My sense, though, is that the people who say that, Here's a question from Quora, Saudi Arabia and Iran had a pretty decent relationship.

[14:47] with Chinese mediation in 2023 That said, there absolutely are tensions beneath the surface

[14:59] it's just they both happen to be two big countries One thing you'll often find about what to call the body of water that separates them.

[15:15] Iranians get really upset when you call it that. So, that speaks to the degree to which both as the leaders of the region.

[15:27] They're both major oil producers, And then there's ideological differences. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia adheres to a brand

[15:40] that Iranians practice as a form of heresy, And by the way, Saudi Arabia has a population

[15:53] and it's always worried that Iran is going to instigate them The Iranian state is based on a revolutionary ideology.

[16:07] and they promised to export an Islamic revolution, They're not so interested in Islamic revolution. They've had a good relationship with the United States

[16:24] And obviously, Iran sees itself as the leader of an axis of resistance against the United States, as kind of an American puppet.

[16:38] and that the Iranians have hit targets in Saudi Arabia, are urging the United States to finish the job and to finally rid the region of this irritant

[16:53] This one is from the explainlikeimfive subreddit, Hezbollah is a militia Hezbollah means Party of God,

[17:10] with serious Iranian support for two reasons. They are about 30% of the population,

[17:23] But the second purpose was to push Israel out after its 1982 invasion of Lebanon. of the most capable military forces in the Middle East.

[17:39] They were a major part of Iran's attempt to shore up the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria

[17:51] There are reports that they trained Hamas for the October 7th attacks against Israel

[18:03] One of the things that Hezbollah did after October 7th resulting in a serious evacuation of Israelis

[18:16] And with the war with Iran, at Israeli targets. They really are the key organization that people talk about

[18:29] Now, today, Hezbollah has suffered some serious blows. the Israelis basically decapitated the organization.

[18:43] First, they planted a bunch of exploding pagers that killed And then that same month, a cleric named Hassan Nasrallah, in an airstrike.

[18:57] And so, Hezbollah today is a much diminished organization. The Israelis are now saying that they need to finish the job and so they have actually invaded Lebanon

[19:11] with the express aim of completely ending Hezbollah. "Why does Iran hate the USA and Israel?" is that they still hold a grudge against the US

[19:28] and for helping orchestrate a coup against more or less democratic prime minister in 1953, who's only sin was trying to nationalize Iran's oil assets.

[19:41] and they hate Israel because they see it as having stolen Muslim land and oppressing Palestinians. to the Iranian regime.

[19:55] which which means the Jerusalem Force. they hold a rally called Quds Day, why would the Iranians care so much about Israel?

[20:11] One explanation is that Iran is based on a pan-Islamic ideology, with Muslims around the world,

[20:26] that Jerusalem is no longer under Muslim control and that Palestinians are oppressed by the Israelis. that what the Iranians wanna do is they want to appeal

[20:42] for gaining influence around the region, and they know that playing the anti-Israeli card So, those are all the questions we have for today.

[20:55] [light jazz music]