He Risked His House to Bet on Eurovision

[00:00] It will be watched by hundreds of millions of people, uh, who are desperate to find out who's going to win the contest or at least not finish with nul points.

[00:13] Millions of pounds will be traded on this particular market, and I personally will put through tens of thousands of pounds on the eventual However, I'm relatively small fry because it's a specialist market, and it's

[00:28] And in fact, there is somebody that bet their entire house on Eurovision. And in this video, not only do I want to discuss Eurovision in general, but more specifically the guy that bet his house on the Eurovision Song Contest.

[00:49] So I first became really interested in the Eurovision Song Contest in 2006, and the thing that caught my eye was not only were there millions getting matched on the Eurovision Song Contest, but also there was a group

[01:02] there called Lordi, uh, that seemed to capture the imagination of the public. It doesn't matter what goes on and how good the musicians are If a theme develops throughout the competition, then that can really drive

[01:16] So I started actively betting on this in 2006. betting, uh, and trading.

[01:29] that there are three distinct spells within the Eurovision Song Contest. When the individual countries perform their song, that will nudge the price

[01:41] But also, the running order will have some impact on that as well. Then we get to the jury vote, and the jury vote can be a bit random, but you'll

[01:53] find there's a pattern begins to develop after the first, um, few votes in terms of what seems to be, uh, getting favored over the course of the competition. But also, you have to remember that countries that are well-aligned

[02:06] So it sort of makes a bit of a nonsense of the jury vote. about the public vote is that necessarily, um, doesn't reflect It's very often, uh, there seems to be very little correlation

[02:22] between what the jury is saying and what the public would like to win. But yeah, every year I go in there, and I will look at how the market unfolds. And I'll look at that over the course of the time to take account of how individual

[02:37] countries and voting patterns will affect the odds over a period of time. give you some guidance in terms of whether you wanna bet or trade on Eurovision, and this was how I came across this particular story of the guy that bet his entire

[02:52] house on the Eurovision Song Contest. So I first came across the guy that would bet his house on Eurovision when Australia I was interested in the dynamic of it, uh, what people's opinions were,

[03:07] and there was an article on the BBC website on the 19th of May 2015 where somebody was talking about the impact of Australia on Eurovision. He was quoted as being a Eurovision analyst, and I'm always really skeptical

[03:24] If you've got money on something, you're likely to talk about it with authority. But as it turned out, uh, Daniel did actually have a lot of money on it, and

[03:37] Uh, so let's b- understand a bit more about Daniel Gould. The first one was an article in The Times where he was talking quite

[03:50] It also mentioned that he was 34 and a history teacher, so he was doing all But he was explaining that, uh, last year he was on Moldova and

[04:04] But he also was talking about how he made 12,000 on the semifinal of that particular year, and it was obvious that he was doing this very seriously.

[04:18] So it turned out that Daniel had a website as well, and more importantly, when you visit that website, you can see that he e- eventually gave up his But not only that, he was able to get a press pass to the Eurovision events,

[04:34] and that gave him a much better view of everything that was going on and the emergent favorites, and he would share that information on his website. And the website is an absolute sort of goldmine of information relating

[04:48] shaped Eurovision over the years. It was really worth a decent read. also some top tips on how you would pick a winning bet at Eurovision.

[05:06] You can see the top tip here is the draw. final, how the band looks, uh, the, the sort of styles that are in or out

[05:18] of vogue, when you should bet, um, reading, uh, fan blogs and stuff like that, uh, focusing on the public vote, but also looking at niche betting And of course, all of these songs are available on YouTube, so it's

[05:35] very helpful to understand just how many views are being watched. I suggest you visit the website. And also, these tips were updated in 2014, um, so you can find

[05:48] more information on those and how things have evolved from there. I don't wanna steal their thunder and go through each one of them. I suggest you give it a visit and have a read for yourself.

[06:02] So let's review some of Daniel's big moments in the Eurovision Song Contest and some of the big bets he placed, and how he actually risked his house on a song. His big start, uh, came in 2004 when the semifinal rounds were introduced, and

[06:18] Daniel realized that he could actually get countries almost guaranteed to qualify And armed with that knowledge, he started placing huge bets on specific This was pretty risky though, because it's reported that he risked

[06:35] £100,000 at 103, in other words, £100,000 to win, £3,000 profit. they were almost certain to pay off, so he felt comfortable.

[06:47] facing the wall, biting my fist as the qualifiers were announced." could be very profitable for him.

[07:03] So winding forward to 2009, Daniel had a life-changing win. In 2009, he backed, uh, the Norwegian entry Fairytale by Alexander Rybak, and indeed, that went on to win, giving Daniel his biggest win to date.

[07:17] It was so big that he actually paid off his mortgage, and it was a pivotal moment for him because he decided at that point that he would quit being a history teacher to become a full-time Eurovision gambler

[07:32] He was a full-time Eurovision gambler. And it sounds like you're just having a punt on a song, but he was doing loads streams, fan forums, doing all sorts of stuff to basically come up with

[07:48] the best idea of who was gonna win or who was gonna qualify for the final. enough money to be able to place big enough bets, is that he would actually borrow money against the value of his flat to serve as betting capital.

[08:04] was left over to travel the world. So in 2018, he went all in on Israel, and things were looking pretty good

[08:18] until an excellent performance by Cyprus that suddenly began to add a lot of tension to the mix, and the final became a lot closer than he had expected. thankfully, Israel won out, and again, he had an excellent result.

[08:40] because Daniel died in December 2018. from an undiagnosed brain tumor.

[08:53] It was an absolutely tragic way to end this story, but unfortunately, If you visit the SofaBet website, you can see a memoriam to him there and a

[09:05] discussion of how the website started and all of the things that he did there. And of course, all of the information that he gained and the knowledge that kind enough to share on that website.

[09:18] Uh, so I suggest if you are interested in betting on Eurovision, you go to the website, pay homage to a man who devoted pretty much the major part of his working life betting on Eurovision.

[09:40] So the Eurovision Song Contest is an absolutely massive betting event. And if you wanna take it to the next level, have a read of all the content that, uh, Daniel, uh, produced because that is, you know,

[09:53] And if you're interested in what's going to influence the betting patterns and how, And as Daniel shows, you know, if you wanna specialize in something, something I suggest that you don't do.

[10:09] Uh, that was certainly an incredible risk to take, but it It's just such a shame that he wasn't able to continue that and It was a real shame.

[10:21] that he did, it was a bit of a shock to see that that's how it all ended. Anyhow, Eurovision is coming up and that's how I suggest you bet and trade on it