How Bookmakers Identify and Ban Winners

[00:00] How do bookmakers know that you're a winner? In this video I'm going to show you exactly how modern bookmakers and their algorithms attempt to identify winners and restrict or ban them long before they make serious money. I've been

[00:12] caught out by some of these myself and it's costing thousands so starting with the first thing. From the moment you land on their website the bookmakers algorithms are collecting evidence. Now ordinarily people think of this as verification

[00:25] documents or perhaps your home address and that's true as well but I'm not talking about that I'm talking about your physical behavior what time you logged in where you logged in from what better

[00:37] markets you looked at first how long you looked at those odds and even how long you had the bet slip open on the screen before you decided to place a bet now consider these two different scenarios player one logs in to play a few spins of roulette after the pub kicked out late on a

[00:54] Friday night. They aren't too fussy about the price and they go and place a bet on the Premier League player having some shots on target the next day. Alternatively, player two logs in at 7am on a Saturday morning. They immediately look for overpriced horses

[01:07] on the all-weather horse racing where the bookie systems have been slow to update overnight. They look at 15 to 20 different races, open bet slips up and wait for a bit with it timed as the prices are still changing across the board. They only bet if it's clearly at the

[01:22] very best price. They're two very different setups, aren't they? Now for those who aren't aware, the second situation is a way of beating the prices. The first is almost impossible to beat them.

[01:34] However, because the bookies track every single click and the time it takes you to do anything, they're able to assign you with an activity score that shows how likely you are to beat them. But more on that in just a moment. First, a deeper look at how they analyze your betting strategy.

[01:50] Now once you've actually placed the bet, the analysis really begins. Because the bookmakers don just record what you backed or whether it won They measure everything including how good that bet was And here the crazy thing they don actually care whether this bet wins or loses they care if you consistently taking prices that are either bigger than they should be

[02:12] or significantly shortened in price after you place the bet in betting this is known as beating the closing line value if you repeatedly back horses at say eight to one and then they start

[02:24] at five to one or a football team at two to one that then kicks off at evens you've demonstrated is something much more important than simply winning or losing a bet. You've shown that you're consistently beating them at their own game.

[02:37] The same applies if you regularly take early prices before a market fully forms, or exploit in stale odds that haven't yet caught up with the wider market. These are all signals that suggest that you're not betting for fun.

[02:50] You're betting with an advantage that means you'll win over the longer term. And nowadays, that's easier than ever for the bookies to measure. In fact, it's exactly why tools like Outblade's Edgefinder are so effective.

[03:03] It scans thousands of betting markets and prices to identify where the value truly is before the rest of the market catches up. So what's my point here? Well, every bet you place helps the bookmaker build an increasingly accurate picture of whether you're likely to be a profitable customer for them in the future.

[03:20] Sometimes they even use spyware designed to spot money laundering too, but more on that in just a second. First, my next point. Analyzing your browsing activity and bets is only half the story.

[03:32] The bookies algorithms are also building an active profile of you. Why? Because as a business they want to answer one extremely important question. What type of customer are you?

[03:44] This is where it starts to get a little bit creepy. Your profile includes everything from your job, like your income range and social status, to where you live and what your postcode suggests about your level of wealth.

[03:57] years ago crack labs created a report about some of these things now profiles may also combine information from identity checks of credit searches and banking apps that you use the more you interact with them the more the profile builds They then start looking at your choices Do you ever play the casino Do you place the occasional

[04:17] accumulator or bet builder? Do you back obvious favourites without worrying too much about the price? Or do you only ever appear when there's clear value available? What time do you usually bet at? Which days of the week? Are you only active after payday? Do you always

[04:32] bet from home or are you placing bets from football stadiums, race courses or while traveling are you always using the same device and wi-fi network or are you logging in from multiple locations the digital data that they get from you answers all of these questions and more but perhaps

[04:49] the most interesting thing they look at is what you don't do if you don't accept reduced prices stay erratically chase losses and you only seem to appear when there's an opportunity that tells them just as much about the bets that you actually place now obviously none of these things prove that

[05:05] you're a winning bettor on their own. But together, they create a surprisingly detailed picture of who you are, how you bet, and just how profitable you're likely to be for them. And it feeds directly into my next point, your betting risk score.

[05:21] Here's the equation. Website and app activity, plus betting history, plus personal profile, plus location and devices, over weeks, months, and years, equals your risk score.

[05:33] All of it feeds into a much bigger picture. And the more that picture starts to resemble someone who consistently finds value, the more your risk score increases. At the same time, they're estimating something else.

[05:45] Your value as a customer. If their system thinks that you're likely to lose money over the longer term, you'll often become far more valuable to them. You'll see them personalise promotions for you, give you more free bets, more booths,

[05:57] and more incentives designed to keep you betting. And if you're a really big-time loser, They may even take you to sporting events and put on hospitality for you. In the past, before it was banned, they even had assigned people with VIP managers.

[06:10] But if your profile suggests you likely to beat them the opposite happens First your bets become much more likely to be reviewed by a trader when you hit submit on that bet slip These traders sat on the other end will look more closely at your

[06:24] paying history, account activity and internal notes on the account. Following the subject access request on my bet365 account you can see here that a note had been added saying exchanges sharp. The

[06:37] account was also heavily state restricted so that using it was just a total waste of time now remember it's their train set they don't have to prove that you're a winner they only have to believe there's a good chance that you'll

[06:49] become one and then they can remove bonuses restrict stakes and block access but this isn't all there's one final piece of the puzzle because they're not just analyzing your account they're looking beyond it now long-term viewers

[07:04] may remember this video. Within it, Skybet refused to pay out a winner because they believed that they were linked to somebody else who also had an account with them. Crazy, right? Well, apparently not. See, modern bookies are constantly looking for links between customers,

[07:21] comparing behaviour across thousands of accounts and grouping together people who appear to behave in similar ways. That might include the devices that you use, browser cookies, IP addresses, Wi-Fi networks, payment methods, or even a family member who sent you 50 quid for your birthday.

[07:39] Yep, those damn money laundering checks where they demand your bank statements appear to be in play too. If they can link your account to another easily, it's all fed into the machine. Remember, their systems aren't just asking, is this customer a winner?

[07:53] They're asking, have we seen this pattern before and does it make us money? because once you start looking at all of those things together you soon realise how sophisticated and extreme this has become.

[08:05] Long term it makes things hard because these systems are designed to catch and ban winners on one hand and increase their bottom line on the other. However, over the shorter term there's still plenty of money to be made.

[08:17] Check out this next video here where I share a simple method that's mathematically proven. Thanks for watching. I'll see you next time.