Trade Prediction Markets Guide — Step-by-Step Guide & Transcript

[00:02] how Americans can legally trade on sport outcomes. They're now available in all 50 states, [music] including California and Texas. Unlike traditional sports books, prediction markets like Koshi and Poly Market are

[00:15] federally regulated by the CFTC, [music] which means they operate as legitimate financial exchanges where you're trading contracts with other users instead of betting against the house. The biggest advantage, these platforms legally

[00:28] cannot limit winners because they make their profits from transaction fees, not your losses. The more you trade, the more they profit, which creates a completely different dynamic compared to traditional sports [music] books. In

[00:40] through exactly how the platforms work, go through some live examples on Koshi, and explain why this represents the future of sports trading in America. To get started, I'm just going over to chat GPT and asking and explaining to me what

[00:53] trade prediction markets like Koshi and Poly Market are. And they're platforms where people can trade on the outcomes of real world events. So, this goes see when we go over to Koshi in just a little bit. You can trade on politics,

[01:06] little bit. You can trade on politics, crypto, weather, sports, economics, pop culture. You can literally trade on anything. A predictions market is taking a question and turning it into a tradable contract. Will the Fed cut

[01:19] rates by July? Will the Thunder win the NBA finals this year? And so there's two different outcomes when it comes to this question. Yes or no? And the way that these markets work, it's you can trade between one penny to 99. Now, as we know

[01:35] in sports betting, all odds are associated with a win probability. So, as it goes through in this example, if you're buying 62 cents, that means you're getting it at minus 163 odds. If you're buying 20 cents, then you're

[01:47] getting this at plus 400 odds. So, there's a very easy way to use Koshi in Poly Market when you're trying to figure out whether it's decimal, fractional, or American, what type of odds you're receiving. Over here on Kouchi, as you

[01:59] can see at the top, we have a number of different topics that we can figure out what we want to wager on. It's either going to be yes or no. So, the first who's going to lead Venezuela at the end of 2026. This doesn't even have anything

[02:11] to do with sports, but if we think that Rodriguez is going to lead us, well, there's a 56% chance that yes, this is going to happen. Coming over to Odds Jam's odds converter calculator, we simply just type in 56, the win

[02:24] see that we're receiving odds of minus calculator and pulling this up off to the side is going to allow you to quickly convert the American decimal or fractional odds so you know exactly what

[02:38] price you're receiving. So, the biggest difference with trade prediction markets like FanDuel and DraftKings is that you're trading against other users in these exchanges. You're not betting against the house. When you place a bet

[02:51] on FanDuel, it's literally you versus FanDuel. Either you're going to profit off FanDuel or FanDuel will profit off of you. But here with the trade predictions markets, they're just taking a small transaction fee off of the

[03:04] winning better. So if you end up winning that contract on Koshi, you have to pay somewhere between a 2 to 3% transaction fee and you get to keep the rest. So the dynamic is completely changed because these trade predictions markets want you

[03:18] to trade more. The more that you trade, the more that they make. So it's a very advantageous market for us as sports betterers to thrive in. Once you have your account set up on Kouchi, we simply just come over to sports. And once this

[03:31] loads up for us, you're going to see that we currently have games going on live at the moment. But over here on the lefth hand side, you can just simply click on whatever dropdown that you want to go into. For myself, I'm going to

[03:43] most simple one. Let's take a look at the Pacers and the Charlotte Hornets. What you're going to see here first is the moneyline play. So [music] if we think Indiana's going to win the game, we have a 38% chance of them actually

[03:57] winning this. So, when we come over to an odds converter calculator, 38% means we're receiving odds of plus 163. If you think that they're going to lose, you can simply click no, which means you don't think the Pacers are going to win.

[04:10] Or you could simply take Charlotte as yes at 63. So, remember money lines, it's pretty simple. Is the Pacers going to win the basketball game? Yes or no? Now, when we come down here to let's say the spread or the total, it's very

[04:24] simple. Charlotte to win by over three and a half points. So they need to win by four or more. So basically the Hornets are minus three and a half. If you click yes, that gives us a 55% chance of winning this wager, which

[04:37] means we have odds of minus 122. If you don't think that the Hornets are going to cover the minus 3 1/2, then you think you're going to say no here, which means you're taking the Pacers at plus 3 and

[04:50] options right here with six and a half, right here. But again, if you don't think that Charlotte wins by four points or more, taking no means that you're taking the Pacers at plus 3 and 1/2. The

[05:04] prediction markets is you actually have a couple other options compared to DraftKings and FanDuel. So, if we wanted to wager on Charlotte on the money line tonight, you could see that we have to pay a price of yes at 63.

[05:18] 63 means that we're receiving odds of minus 170. But let's say that we didn't want to pay this price. We could come over to limit price and let's say we over to limit price and let's say we type in 60. We're telling Cal sheet,

[05:32] listen, I don't want to pay minus 170 odds, but I'm willing to pay odds of -150. You can create an order right here to buy the Hornets on the money line at -150 odds instead of -70. Now, it

[05:45] doesn't mean that your order will get filled, but you can throw the option out that action, meaning that they'll take the pacers on the other side, you'll get your order filled at a better price. So, the really interesting part with Koshi

[05:59] and Poly Market is you can create limit prices where maybe you don't want to accept this price, but you're willing to accept this price. Now, remember, all of our action right now is buying. And if we're looking to buy, you can set limit

[06:11] prices which could possibly give you an incredible price on this if the market If they don't agree with your price, then there's no action and your money's returned [music] to you. Now, Koshi also offers different player props, points,

[06:25] assist, rebounds, threes, double double, triple double. As you can see here, at the moment, we're only offered a couple of players that we can bet the over on. But there is a way that we can bet the under, but it takes an extra layer of

[06:38] right here. Let's say we wanted to take LaMelo Ball to score 25 points or more LaMelo Ball to score 25 points or more in this game. We can accept yes at 21. Well, 21 cents means that we're receiving odds of plus 376. But in this

[06:53] example, we actually don't want to bet the over on LaMelo Ball. We want to bet the under. Well, in order to do this, you would first have to buy the over on LaMelo Ball. Once you purchase the over on LaMelo Ball, you would then come over

[07:07] to sell and then you would look to sell that contract to someone else. Now, there is a risk that your order doesn't get filled and that you end up holding on to that over position. But currently the way on cow sheet to bet any type of

[07:22] unders is if if you do not see the no option here then you have to buy the yes and then sell that contract to another user on the platform. Over here on poly market it's very similar to koshi where you can bet yes on the money line or no.

[07:39] different spreads and a couple of different totals. Now the difference lines, first half spreads, first half totals at different prices, but player props currently aren't available on Poly Market like they are over at Koshi. The

[07:53] Koshi versus Poly Market is on Koshi you can trade USD cash. On Poly Market you have to trade within crypto. So some type of USDC token in order to make your

[08:06] transactions. Understanding the foundation between Poly Market and Koshi is that you're trading contracts. yes or no. And there's some type of percentage attached to [music] this. So, utilizing Odds Jam's odds converter calculator so

[08:19] that you can understand what the odds are is going to be crucial for your receiving the correct price that you want. Let's go through an example of me actually placing a bet over at Ky. As you can see, I'm looking at college

[08:32] basketball right here. Portland plus 2 and 1/2. It has a 1.5% edge. You can see over here on Koshi, we're receiving odds of plus 105. The liquidity is $266. could simply up here at the top just type in Portland. See Pacific at [music]

[08:48] Portland. Now again on this play, we're taking Portland at plus 2 1/2. So we're going to scroll down here. Does Pacific win by over 2 1/2 points? Well, we want

[09:00] Portland. So in this example, we would say no. Then I could see what Odds Jam's recommending me that I wager, which is $110. I simply come over here and just $110. I simply come over here and just type in 110, click review, and then all

[09:14] of a sudden I can also enter in the limit price if I want to. If I don't want the limit price, I could simply just buy in dollars right here. This is another example that you can go ahead and do. And as you can see, $110 is

[09:28] $225. Again, if we wanted to check our math to make sure that we're receiving the correct payout based off of the odds, we should be receiving odds of plus 105. So, when I come over to Cali, we're

[09:42] wagering $110. We can simply just take 100 * 1 spot 05 and see that we should be receiving a total payout of $11,5.50. [music] [music] 110 plus $115 gives us $225,

[09:59] which is exactly what we're getting paid out here. So, we are receiving odds of plus 105 on Khi. I go ahead and click review. We don't want Pacific to win by over 2 1/2 points because we want Portland at plus 2 1/2. So, we're going

[10:15] to go ahead and submit this wager right here. And there we go. We just received Portland at plus 2 and a half points on the spread at plus 105 odds. I come back over, click on the plus sign here to add this to my bet tracker. And guys, if you

[10:30] and then save 35% off your first month Billy35. It'll be linked in the to Kasheen Poly Market is its geographical availability. It's

[10:43] available in all 50 [music] states. So if you're in California or Texas or you southeast where your options are limited when it comes to sports books, Kashi and Poly Market are now available to you. The way that these exchanges are

[10:58] designed is advantageous for us as sports bers. They want our action. They the more money that you trade over there, the more money that that book dynamic when you're going up against DraftKings. Either DraftKings makes

[11:13] money off of you if you lose your bet or you make money off of DraftKings if you win your bet. And eventually that's how limits are imposed by these recreational books. Third is transparency. On these exchanges, you can see how much

[11:26] tell it that you want to accept a certain price if you're looking to buy a spread, a total, a money line, or a certain event. But on DraftKings and FanDuel, you're cornered. You have to accept their price no matter what it is.

[11:41] exchanges. You have more freedom, creativity, and flexibility. The popularity of these exchanges are growing, and I only project that their menus will grow as well, where you'll see more player prop options based off

[11:54] of [music] different sports. With both Koshi and Poly Market, it's very straightforward in terms of funding your account. Koshi takes USD while Poly Market takes crypto or USDC. [music] So, you can easily fund your account and

[12:07] start placing wages for as little as a few dollars. The last thing that you do want to remember, guys, on these exchanges, because there are no limits, you're not just dealing against the house and going up against maybe an MGM

[12:21] or Bet Rivers that's maybe a little bit easier to beat their model. You're going sports betterers in the world because this attracts them to this pool. There's no limits. So you're dealing with maybe some of the sharpest sports betterers

[12:35] out there if you're looking to buy some of the contracts. So make sure that you're mindful of that because there's a lot of sharps living out there on Koshi and Poly market. But again, utilizing a software like OddsJam, whether it's

[12:47] arbitrage betting or positive EV betting is going to provide you a lot of my arbitrageers, because there's going to just be very high liquidity amounts [music] and that's going to allow you to earn even more when it comes to

[13:01] arbitrage betting, especially when you can line up arbs between two exchanges. Prediction markets represent a fundamental shift in how American sports betterers trade day in and day out with no limits and availability in all 50

[13:15] states regulated at the federal level. This is something that the recreational sports books simply can't match. If you're looking to add these exchanges to your arbitrage betting list, you want to make sure that you understand how to

[13:28] implement these properly so that you can start racking in the profits when it this video on the screen that's going to walk you through my complete arbitrage betting setup. How much money should you put in the books, answer a lot of FAQs,

[13:41] and allows you to execute this setup to perfection. Adding Cali and Poly Market in here will only increase your profits significantly.