AI Summary
The video documents a one-week experiment where the creator blindly copied trades from 'sharp traders' on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, using the Odd Gems Prediction Traders Tool. The goal was to test whether removing personal judgment and relying on data-backed expert trades could yield profits. The results showed a total profit of $798, demonstrating the potential of this strategy.
Chapters
The creator decided to copy sharp traders on Kalshi and Polymarket for one week, avoiding any personal predictions or opinions.
Odd Gems' Prediction Traders Tool identifies sharp traders, tracks their market entries, and shows their profitability, allowing users to tail their trades.
The tool provides a confidence score for each trade, indicating how reliable the trade is based on the sharp trader's data.
An example trade: Japan money line vs Sweden with a 97 confidence score, backed by a trader with 4% ROI over 400 trades.
The tool shows the trader's position size relative to their typical trade, helping assess conviction.
The tool covers various markets, including politics, sports, and geopolitics, each with specialized sharp traders.
The creator experienced losing days but stuck to the process, leading to consistent wins over time.
Final results: $354 profit on Kalshi and $444 on Polymarket, totaling $798 for the week.
Mentioned in this Video
Tutorial Checklist
Study Flashcards (10)
What was the main goal of the experiment?
easy
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What was the main goal of the experiment?
To remove personal bias and rely on proven profitable traders' strategies.
00:02
Which tool was used to copy sharp traders?
easy
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Which tool was used to copy sharp traders?
Odd Gems' Prediction Traders Tool.
00:43
What does the Odd Gems tool do?
medium
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What does the Odd Gems tool do?
It identifies sharp traders, tracks their entries, exits, and profitability, and provides confidence scores.
00:43
What is a confidence score?
medium
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What is a confidence score?
A score showing how confident you can be in a trade based on the sharp trader's data.
01:56
What was the top play mentioned in the video?
medium
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What was the top play mentioned in the video?
Japan money line versus Sweden, with a 97 confidence score.
02:09
What were the trader stats for the soccer sharp trader?
medium
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What were the trader stats for the soccer sharp trader?
4% ROI over 400 trades.
02:41
How much larger was the position size compared to the trader's typical size?
hard
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How much larger was the position size compared to the trader's typical size?
22 times higher than their typical trade size.
02:41
What were the final profits on Kalshi and Polymarket?
medium
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What were the final profits on Kalshi and Polymarket?
$354 on Kalshi and $444 on Polymarket, totaling $798.
08:33
What was the advice for losing days?
medium
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What was the advice for losing days?
To stick to the process and keep tailing, as even a small edge leads to profits over time.
07:24
What was an example of a geopolitics sharp trader's stats?
hard
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What was an example of a geopolitics sharp trader's stats?
A sharp trader in geopolitics with a 3% ROI over 2,900 trades.
05:42
💡 Key Takeaways
Copying Sharp Traders
Demonstrates a practical method to profit from prediction markets without personal expertise.
00:43Confidence Scores
Shows how data-driven confidence scores can guide trade selection.
01:56Total Profit of $798
Provides concrete evidence that the strategy works in a real-world week.
08:33Sticking to the Process
Highlights the importance of consistency and discipline in trading.
07:24Full Transcript
[00:02] completely, for one full week I didn't pick anything. No guessing, no pick anything. No guessing, no predicting, no opinions. I only copied sharp traders on Cal Shi and Polymarket. And honestly, I had no idea if this was
[00:16] going to be genius or completely stupid. Most people lose on prediction markets for one simple reason. They think they're the one that has to predict they're the one that has to predict everything. Politics, sports, economics,
[00:28] world events, etc. But the reality is, you're not competing against the news. You're competing against other traders that spend all day inside these markets. different. What if I remove myself entirely from the decision-making and I
[00:43] just copied sharp traders. Here's what I used. This is Odd Gems prediction traders tool. And what it does is it finds sharp traders, tracks what markets they're entering, when they're entering them, and just how profitable they are
[00:56] in these specific markets, showing you the sharpest trades that they are placing. Instead of scrolling Twitter or X trying to guess who's profitable or smart, I can actually see and back up with data who I am tailing on these
[01:12] pretty simple. I was just playing whatever these sharp traders were also playing. No guessing, no deterring from what they think, just simply placing the trade if they had placed it and the data made sense here on Odd Gems prediction
[01:27] traders tool. But, the one little caveat was that I was trying to make sure that within this week. And I'm not going to lie, at first it was a bit much. There's a wide variety of markets that these different sharps are actually entering.
[01:43] You could go from entering in a World Cup bet to placing a bet on politics, who's going to win the next mayoral election of LA, etc. Actually, the tool everything up front and tells you
[01:56] exactly what you're entering and why you're entering it. Also, giving a confidence score showing you how confident you could be on this trade based off of the data from the sharp trader you tail. And real quick, before
[02:09] first explain how this tool actually works and what you should be looking at. For instance, the very top play has a 97 confidence score here on the prediction traders tool. It is telling us to take Japan money line versus Sweden for the
[02:24] match up Thursday, the 25th. So, we'd be taking yes at 51 cents. And why is that? Well, if we look over here at the card, we can see that the traders stats shows that their top category is soccer. They have a 4% ROI over 400 trades, so
[02:41] they're proved to be profitable over 400 plus trades, which is good to see. They are entering this position with a size that is 22 times higher than their typical trade size here. If you hover over each will explain it a little bit
[02:56] more, but that's what that says. They are entered in for 2.2k, and we are slightly getting a better price than where they entered, getting in at 51 [music] cents when they entered in at 51.5 cents. So, based off of all of
[03:10] this, it's given a 97 confidence score and a great play for us to simply tail. these apps, you can just simply click that and it's going to load up that market and that play into your account. And boom, you just got to enter how much
[03:25] you come back to Odd Jam, you can easily just track your position here by clicking confirm buy. And then it's going to pop up in your positions tab right here. These are all of my open positions at this very second. And this
[03:39] even tells you when the sharp trader that you tailed exited a position. For a month ago. This is a long holding position. I never ended up selling out with them, and it looks like it's going to pay off for me. But, in most cases,
[03:54] probably for a good reason, and you probably would want to follow them and hit the next tab that says orders, it would show us any of our orders that Polymarket, but I have no limit orders up at this very moment. Then, we come
[04:10] over to closed. This shows us all of our positions and how they were resolved, whether it's wins or losses. But, as you guys can see, things have gone pretty good, especially in the World Cup for this past week. And underneath my camera
[04:22] is actually my results for the last week, but we'll get there. And all of those World Cup bets were not random. They weren't a fluke. These were actually specialized traders that are sharp in soccer placing trades on these,
[04:36] entering in positions that they thought were profitable, and me just simply following them. They were specialized in this specific market. And I'm not good this was working out. Look at the last eight Kalshi trades I made on the
[04:51] World Cup. I basically won all of them with losing a very small position on this here. Now, these results in this tool isn't just all World Cup and soccer plays. There are tons of different markets that these sharp traders enter
[05:04] in and specialize in. For instance, this one here, "Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30th?" Benjamin Netanyahu, they are taking no for Trump to not insult him. But, if we look down at the trader stats, we can see that
[05:16] this guy is profitable and his top category is in politics. It makes so much sense that he would be trading on this where he has an edge. And yes, if you are wondering, I am actually holding a position in this market, so hopefully
[05:29] Trump's a nice guy to Benjamin Netanyahu for at least the next 2 weeks. What's need to know anything about the markets you're entering in order to make some money doing it. There's a sharp for almost everything. Check this out.
[05:42] Here's an MLB money line play. Well, this guy is sharp in specifically MLB money lines. If we scroll down, maybe you want to enter some geopolitics stuff. Well, this guy is a sharp trader in geopolitics with a 3% ROI over 2,900
[05:56] trades. So, they're proven to be profitable in geopolitics as that's their top category. Or, we scroll down, maybe you like tennis, maybe you don't know anything about tennis. Well, you can follow this tennis sharp here. And
[06:08] anything. It's not something that's only resolving today. This could be future this as I was scrolling, but there are a ton of World Cup plays for people to either reach or not reach the round of 16, the semi-finals, etc. And you should
[06:24] be playing these. This guy has Morocco to not make the round of 16. Well, I would trust this guy. Top category is soccer, almost a 5% ROI over 3,600 trades. He is very confident in this because he is placing a trade that is 17
[06:39] higher 17 times higher than his typical trade size. And now that you guys process, and what I was looking at before entering in these trades, now going to start out on Kaushi and what my week looked like over there. As you guys
[06:54] can see, on the 15th, it started out not great. Minus 110 right away off 10 trades. But, I didn't waver. I stuck to the process and I kept following these sharps. And over the long term, you guys can see, it led to winning day after
[07:09] winning day after winning day after winning day, even winning on the weekends with very low volume, and then ending here with plus $100 on 12 trades on the 22nd. Sure, I went on a pretty good run right here. But, there are
[07:24] going to be losing days as you can see tailing these sharp traders. Now, as you guys know, with any edge, even if you have the smallest edge, over the long term, that's where you are going to see profits. So, that's why if you lose one
[07:39] day, two days, three days in a row, don't waver, stick to the process, and keep tailing. So, if you do the math from the 15th to the 22nd, I went up from the 15th to the 22nd, I went up almost $400, totaling $398
[07:51] just on Kalshi. And now, my results for Polymarket, which I tracked all of my Trader's Tool as well. All right, so underneath the closed tab in the top right of the Prediction Trader's Tool, you're going to find all of your closed,
[08:04] tracked positions. Here I have it for the past week. As you guys can see, on Polymarket, tailing these sharp traders, I made $444 in the last week just on my Polymarket positions. And as you guys can see, just
[08:19] like Kalshi, I went up, I went down, I went up, and then I kind of took it easy on the weekend. But, you get the point. It was profitable. And now, for our final results of tailing sharp traders off Odd Jam's Prediction Trader's Tool
[08:33] for 1 week completely blindly, we have Kalshi coming in at $354 Kalshi coming in at $354 in profit, Polymarket at $444 in profit, bringing our total profits for the week to $798.
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