Prediction Market Truth: Who Really Wins? — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:02] trading on Polymarket. Except, mhm, he didn't. That bet never actually happened. And it's not just him. An investigation uncovered thousands of videos that were exactly like it. Every single one of them completely

[00:14] fabricated. Some influencers were reportedly paid to post fabricated wins on Polymarket. Fake screenshots, doctored footage. One video shows a win on Polymarket that isn't even the actual platform. If you zoom in and look

[00:27] polymarket.com. These were mock-ups built to look real. And the campaign pulled in over 140 So, if those wins were fake, what is

[00:39] billions of dollars flowing through prediction markets like Polymarket every single day. And well, someone's winning that money. But, the question is who? Here's a number that stopped me in my

[00:51] tracks. In a study of trading activity on prediction markets, 71% of users lost money. And here's the part that really matters. The top 1% of that really matters. The top 1% of traders made up 95% of the profits. The

[01:04] traders made up 95% of the profits. The top 0.1% accounted for 74% of it. Read that again. Less than 1% of all the users on this platform are taking home almost 3/4 of everything won. So, the real story isn't about fake videos. The

[01:17] real story is there's a small group of people who are genuinely crushing it in this space. And I want to show you who they are and how you can get in front of making. To understand how a handful of people are taking home almost all the

[01:29] money, you need to actually understand what's going on underneath the hood of these prediction markets. Researchers broke Polymarket users into two groups, skilled winners and unskilled losers. If there was no skill involved, this would

[01:41] be distributed as a flat line. Pure luck, evenly spread. [music] Instead, there are two distinct clusters. One massive group of unskilled losers that consistently lose. And then a smaller group, about half the size, of skilled

[01:53] winners who are consistently earning. Everyone else in between is just lucky or unlucky. The people studying this call this smart money and dumb money. And the smart money profits directly at the expense of dumb money. So, what

[02:06] exactly is smart money doing differently? Because it's not magic. winners trade across a variety of wide markets. They react to news fast. They anticipate changes before the crowd catches up. And just as important, they

[02:20] makes. Researchers found something on here called optimism tax on these prediction market platforms, where the average user consistently overbets on yes and overvalues their longshot plays. Cheap, flashy bets that feel exciting

[02:36] but lose money consistently over time. Skilled winners, they don't touch those. They take the boring, [music] expensive, high-probability bets that actually pay off. That's it. That's their entire edge. Discipline and speed. But here's

[02:48] turns out the entire reason that Polymarket is even considered accurate comes down to this small [music] group study that I think about all the time. It says the majority of the participants

[03:00] on this platform don't produce accuracy, they fund [music] it. Read that again. The average user isn't contributing some wisdom of the crowd. They're fueling it. Every time a regular person places a bet and it loses, that money flows to a

[03:13] skilled trader who reacted faster or saw something they didn't. The platform's entire pitch, that this is a truth machine built on collective wisdom, is actually built on a tiny group of pros that are feeding off of everyone else.

[03:26] You're either the smart money or you're funding it. So, here's the real identifiable group of people who are consistently winning on this platform, is there a way to actually know who they are? To see their track record before

[03:38] you follow their money instead of after? There is. And it's a tool that I use constantly. Let me show you. This is called the Odds Jam Traders Tool, and it does something that no influencer video on TikTok will ever show you. This tool

[03:50] tracks the verified track record of prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, and ProfitX. And as you can see over here, this specific trader has over 3,500 trades with a 5% ROI on MLB moneyline plays. And this

[04:04] the moneyline. As you can see, this is currently a game that's going on live in the bottom of the second inning. Not doctored wins, real trading history. When we go through all of these plays, you're going to see different traders

[04:18] with their ROI, their top category, their relative bet size in terms of how much they normally bet, their current bet size. All of this is right here in front of you. Remember that stat that the top 1% of traders take home 95% of

[04:32] the profits? This tool is how you find out who those traders actually are and what they're trading on right now. So, let's break down this example of a pre-game play, the St. Louis Cardinals moneyline. We highlighted this trader

[04:44] before who likes the Nationals live. They also like the Cardinals on the their relative bet size right here. We can see that they've placed just over $300 on the Cardinals to win this game. Now, the slippage is very important.

[04:57] Anything that's under 3% is ideal. 3 to 5% okay. Anything over 5% not great. And this means is the price that the trader got it at, can we actually get the same or similar price that they received? So,

[05:11] what you're going to notice here is the trader got this at 44¢. So, when we come over to a prediction markets calculator right here on Odds Jam, 44¢ means +127 fractional, that's going to spell it out for you right here. So, then the next

[05:27] thing that we know is, well, the trader got this play at +127 odds. So, anything that's at +127 or better of odds, we definitely want that. So, when I come over to the Cardinals on the moneyline, what you're going to notice here is that

[05:39] to me in the state of Arizona that I have accounts with, I can simply just peruse. Take a look. See what books have this play. Look at this BetOnline 5 decent. But there's also some regular wreck books maybe like a DraftKings at

[05:54] wreck books maybe like a DraftKings at plus 123 or Circa at plus 126 that I can get a very similar price to the [music] trader. So the beautiful thing with this get the same price that the trader get got at plus 127, if we can get this at

[06:08] plus 126 plus 125 within a ballpark, I'm totally okay with that. So this is what this tool is so powerful for because we're talking about MLB money line currently showing $15,000 that you can wager on the Cardinals or

[06:22] the Angels. So it's not like the sports books are ever going to limit us because we're wagering 100 or $200. Like we can put down thousands of dollars on this specific market and all of those plays are available here. The top 1% of the

[06:35] Poly Market traders are sharing their favorite plays whether it's pre-game or live over here on Odds Jam's Trader's Tool. So here's the reality. Poly Market's marketing is built on making you believe that anybody can win big

[06:49] overnight. I just showed you that's mostly fake. The truth is there's only a tiny group of skilled traders that are consistently profitable on the platform. That just means that you need visibility into who those traders actually are. And

[07:02] that's exactly what this tool gives you. You're not betting blind anymore. You're following documented verified performance in real time. If you want to yourself, link below is a one-week free trial. And then use my code Billy 35

[07:15] and you're going to save 35% off your first month after the one-week trial video, make sure to smash that subscribe [music] button, click that thumbs up so you don't miss the next video that we release.