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i f**k'd up

0h 23m video Transcribed Jun 28, 2026 Watch on YouTube ↗
Intermediate 6 min read For: Experienced retail investors and financial analysts interested in macro-driven tech sector analysis and market timing.
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AI Summary

Financial analyst Kevin admits he was wrong about his recent bullish market outlook, citing a complex confluence of events including Fed policy misreads, yen carry trade dynamics, and tech sector weakness. He analyzes how six bearish factors like Kevin Warsh's hawkish silence, SpaceX's early peak, and Micron's sell-off on good earnings have shifted market leadership from hardware to software. The video aims to provide transparent analysis and identify where the real opportunity lies despite near-term timing errors.

[00:55]
Overestimated Warsh's Dovishness

Kevin was too optimistic that Kevin Warsh would be a dove; instead, Warsh chose silence, signaling Fed independence and hawkishness, which markets interpreted as short-term bearish.

[03:48]
Yen Carry Trade Unwind

The yen broke through 160, prompting fears of Bank of Japan intervention. Hedge funds sold US tech stocks to repay yen-denominated debt cheaply before intervention, accelerating the sell-off.

[05:26]
SpaceX Peak Came Early

SpaceX's meme rally peaked after just three trading days (around June 16), earlier than Kevin's expectation of early July, contributing to tech sector volatility.

[07:05]
Micron Sell-off Signals Low Liquidity

Micron's positive earnings were followed by a sell-off, and the post-earnings rebound didn't cover the initial drop, indicating a lack of liquidity in the market.

[08:00]
Apple Price Hike

Apple was rumored and then followed through on raising device prices by 16-20%, dragging down Apple stock and adding to bearish sentiment.

[14:40]
Palo Alto Networks Financial Warning

Palo Alto Networks shows declining net income (-33% over 9 months) and rising stock compensation (+39%), suggesting pricing power may be weaker than investors assume, though operating cash flow is strong.

[20:10]
Cybersecurity Valuations Rich

Kevin believes cybersecurity stocks are expensive because many companies in the space barely make money (low EPS), making their PEG ratios look high despite being AI beneficiaries.

Clickbait Check

85% Legit

"The title is transparent about the mistake, but the video is complex and data-heavy, not just a simple apology; still, it delivers on its promise of honest self-critique."

Mentioned in this Video

Study Flashcards (8)

What was Kevin's largest mistake according to the video?

medium Click to reveal answer

He was too optimistic that Kevin Warsh would be a dove (loose policy), but Warsh chose silence, signaling Fed independence and hawkishness.

00:55

Why does the Japanese yen's strength affect US tech stocks?

hard Click to reveal answer

A stronger yen makes it cheaper to repay yen-denominated debt, prompting hedge funds to sell tech stocks to repay before a potential Bank of Japan intervention.

03:48

Why did US hedge funds sell tech stocks after the yen broke through 160?

medium Click to reveal answer

Because the weak yen made it cheaper to repay debt, and funds sold tech stocks before a potential BOJ intervention.

04:00

What did the bond market signal about SpaceX's bonds?

hard Click to reveal answer

SpaceX's bond sale priced with a 50 basis point premium over Intel, indicating the bond market demanded higher compensation for risk.

06:30

What happened to Palo Alto Networks' net income and stock compensation over the past 9 months?

medium Click to reveal answer

Net income declined by 33% over the last 9 months, while stock compensation rose by 39%.

14:40

What does the 'post-Micron earnings sell-off' signify about the market?

hard Click to reveal answer

The lack of liquidity; positive earnings were followed by a sell-off, indicating weak market absorption of good news.

07:05

Why does Kevin find cybersecurity valuations frustrating?

medium Click to reveal answer

Because their EPS is very low, leading to high price-to-earnings growth multiples despite being AI beneficiaries.

20:10

List four bearish factors that tanked tech stocks according to Kevin.

hard Click to reveal answer

Kevin Warsh went hawkish, Japanese carry trade unwound, SpaceX peaked early, Micron sold off, Apple raised prices, and SpaceX bond sale signaled risk.

06:00

💡 Key Takeaways

⚖️

Admitting a Forecasting Error

Demonstrates transparency in financial analysis by acknowledging a significant mistake in market timing.

00:55
💡

Yen Carry Trade Mechanism

Explains how yen weakness actually drives tech sell-offs through hedge fund debt repayment strategies before intervention risk.

03:48
📊

SpaceX Bond Market Signal

Highlights that a 50bps premium over Intel on SpaceX bonds indicates market risk aversion, not company fundamentals.

04:00
🔧

Identifying Liquidity Deficiency via Micron

Shows how positive earnings followed by a sell-off is a technical sign of low market liquidity, a leading indicator for further weakness.

07:05
💡

Palo Alto Networks Hidden Weakness

Reveals that despite a strong balance sheet, PANW's declining net income and rising stock compensation suggest pricing power issues.

14:40

✂️ Creator Tools: Viral Hooks

AI-generated clip ideas for Shorts based on the transcript

I Was Wrong About the Market Crash

50s

Admitting a mistake creates trust and curiosity, making viewers want to hear the analysis.

▶ Play Clip

Jim Cramer Hype Killed the SpaceX Rally

53s

Controversial take on influencer effect sparks debate and engagement.

▶ Play Clip

6 Reasons Tech is Crashing Right Now

60s

Educational list format is highly shareable and provides value to traders.

▶ Play Clip

I'm Waiting to Buy Palantir at $89

55s

Specific price target creates debate and encourages viewers to comment their own predictions.

▶ Play Clip

[00:01] All right, everyone. Me Kevin here.

[00:03] Look, I was wrong. I made a mistake on

[00:06] some recent bullish optimism, and I want

[00:08] to come clean about what was wrong and

[00:12] where we're going now, because the

[00:14] market's going into a very interesting

[00:15] direction. And I think it creates an

[00:17] opportunity for us. Uh but in order to

[00:19] actually understand what this

[00:21] opportunity might be, we should really

[00:22] just sit down together and have a

[00:24] conversation about what went wrong uh

[00:27] what went right and which of the thesis

[00:29] sort of still remain in play. Uh because

[00:31] there are a lot of them that actually

[00:33] remain in play. We just want to make

[00:34] sure we have the timing right. Uh and

[00:36] there's a new sector that's getting a

[00:38] lot of attention right now, but I

[00:39] actually think there's a warning to be

[00:42] had around that particular sector. And

[00:44] so we're going to go through some

[00:45] analysis. I'm going to give you my full

[00:47] opinion on all of this. Uh, but first,

[00:49] I'm I'm just going to be very straight

[00:51] with you and blunt with you about where

[00:53] I was wrong. I think the largest mistake

[00:55] that I made over the last week, week and

[00:58] a half here is I was too optimistic that

[01:00] Kevin Worsh was going to be a dove. He

[01:03] basically chose violence by choosing

[01:05] silence. He chose silence as a way to

[01:08] signal Federal Reserve independence and

[01:10] his commitment to the left side of the

[01:13] decimal point of inflation, which to me

[01:15] sounds long-term doubbish, but to

[01:17] markets sounded short-term hawkish. And

[01:20] of course, that's why markets reacted

[01:21] the way uh they did. Uh and this was

[01:24] also accelerated by some other issues in

[01:27] the marketplace that we should really

[01:28] discuss. Uh and I think when we put it

[01:31] all together, we can really understand

[01:33] why market leadership is moving. uh from

[01:36] where it had been really sexy, you know,

[01:38] Nvidia to some extent, uh AMD, even the

[01:41] memory chip stocks, which today are

[01:43] giving back even more of their gains,

[01:46] which means we're not back to levels we

[01:47] had before micron earnings, and now

[01:49] we're even lower uh than uh than than

[01:53] where we've been over the last, you

[01:54] know, post earnings rally, if you will.

[01:57] Uh so, let's understand this. The very

[02:00] first problem that we had was Kevin

[02:03] Walsh. There's no question about that. I

[02:06] want to be very clear. I'm not changing

[02:07] my opinion on Kevin Walsh. I think he's

[02:10] a guy that is going to drive interest

[02:12] rates to zero. The biggest concern I

[02:14] have with Kevin War is based on his

[02:16] history, he is not going to be a money

[02:19] printer kind of guy, which means when

[02:21] and if we have a uh, you know, dramatic

[02:24] recession or depression because AI

[02:26] hardware rolls over and everybody loses

[02:28] all their money because growth rates

[02:30] roll over and people are like, "Oh my

[02:31] gosh, please run the money printer and

[02:33] bail us out." I actually think he's not

[02:35] going to run the money printer, which

[02:37] does create a real risk factor for how

[02:40] quick of a V-shaped recovery we recovery

[02:43] we would have, such as that bottom that

[02:45] we saw uh in uh you know, September to

[02:48] March of 2002 to 2003, the V-shaped

[02:52] recovery we saw in February of 2009, the

[02:54] V-shaped recovery that we saw uh in

[02:56] really January of 2019 after the

[02:58] December bond market crisis and the Fed

[03:00] pivot then. Uh and then of course the

[03:02] March COVID Fed pivot. You could even

[03:04] throw in sort of the banking crisis,

[03:06] massive, you know, rapid bailout if you

[03:09] will or guarantee of bailout. Uh all of

[03:11] those things have been associated with

[03:13] prior Fed generations of we're going to

[03:15] run the money primer. I do not think

[03:17] Worsh is going to be that guy, which

[03:19] makes me concerned. But I also maintain

[03:21] that I think he's right. We are going

[03:23] into a disinflationary regime, maybe

[03:25] even a deflationary regime. Okay, that's

[03:27] worse. You probably already know that

[03:29] opinion about me. I just want to make it

[03:31] crystal clear that even though he came

[03:34] out hawkish, I still think he is a

[03:37] deflation dove. I don't think any of

[03:39] that has changed. The timing was just

[03:42] complicated. Here's why. Right after

[03:45] Wars comes out dovish, we end up getting

[03:48] the Japanese yen breaking through pretty

[03:51] bad technical levels which send the

[03:53] signal that intervention might be

[03:54] coming. when USD trades, you know, when

[03:57] you get one USD to one JPY that's

[03:59] sitting above 160 now, sort of rejecting

[04:02] off of 162, people fear that, oh no, the

[04:06] Bank of Japan is going to intervene. We

[04:08] may as well quickly pay off debt. Uh,

[04:11] you know, US hedge funds may as well

[04:13] quickly pay off debt. So, what do they

[04:14] do? They sell high-flying tech names in

[04:16] the United States because it is now

[04:18] cheaper to do so before that potential

[04:21] intervention. I didn't as clearly as I

[04:23] should have explained that in my video

[04:25] two days, two or three days ago. Uh

[04:28] there was this implication that you know

[04:30] somehow people are uh liquidating their

[04:33] Japanese yen debt positions because the

[04:37] yen is getting weaker which actually

[04:39] makes it cheaper to pay off that

[04:40] Japanese yen debt. This is true but that

[04:42] is the perfect opportunity people use to

[04:44] pay off their Japanese debt before a

[04:48] potential intervention risk. So I just

[04:49] wanted to clarify that. Ignoring the

[04:52] complexity of that for a moment, Kevin

[04:54] Worsh goes hawkish when Kevin thought

[04:55] doubbish. I still think long-term

[04:57] doubbish, but that's obviously bearish

[04:59] for tech stocks. The Japanese carry

[05:01] trade getting cheaper to pay off is

[05:04] bearish for tech stocks. Third thing, we

[05:07] all knew, and we talked about this ad

[05:10] nauseium, we knew that SpaceX was going

[05:12] to meme rally because they were only

[05:15] putting out 4.2% of the float. We knew

[05:16] that was going to happen. We knew it

[05:18] would peak out. The only problem is we

[05:20] don't know when. People ask me, Kevin,

[05:22] when should we buy puts on SpaceX? I'm

[05:24] like, it's really tough to know exactly.

[05:26] I think the beginning of July. I didn't

[05:29] buy any shorts or puts or whatever. It's

[05:31] just not my trading style. And

[05:33] unfortunately, it didn't peak out at the

[05:35] beginning of July. It peaked out after

[05:37] just three full trading days, which

[05:40] would be around June 16th when Jim

[05:41] Kramer really hyped it up. Okay, maybe

[05:44] that was our real warning sign. But

[05:46] anyway, that peak came a lot quicker

[05:49] than expected for SpaceX. And you know,

[05:52] maybe I need to get used to things just

[05:54] coming quicker than expected around

[05:55] here. But that is another bearish move

[06:00] for the tech sector because it

[06:02] contributed to uh the insiders open over

[06:06] at OpenAI saying, "Hey, we're going to

[06:07] delay our IPO till 2027." Three

[06:10] insiders, anonymous insiders, uh

[06:13] revealed that volatility because of

[06:14] SpaceX and tech stocks recently uh

[06:17] contributed to the decision to uh likely

[06:20] delay the open AI IPO. That's not

[06:22] official yet, but that's the

[06:23] expectation. Then number four, you know,

[06:25] that obviously number three is bearish

[06:27] uh uh attack, but number four, you had

[06:30] the SpaceX bond sale. The SpaceX bond

[06:32] sale sold with a way higher spread than

[06:35] it should have. 50 basis point premium

[06:37] over Intel is not good. That was the

[06:40] bond market going, you know, we don't we

[06:42] don't like this. We're gonna have to be

[06:44] compensated for this. And they were, you

[06:47] know, obviously bond holders have a

[06:48] priority over all equity holders, so

[06:50] they already have that in the event of a

[06:52] bankruptcy. Not that anybody actually

[06:53] thinks SpaceX is going to go bankrupt,

[06:55] but you know, there was a very clear

[06:56] desire for more protection uh from the

[06:59] bond market. Uh that was bearish tech.

[07:02] Then of course we had the premicron

[07:05] earnings sell-off, the postmicron

[07:08] rebound which did not cover the sell-off

[07:10] and now we have even more of a post

[07:12] micron earnings sell-off even though the

[07:14] earnings were fantastic.

[07:16] That is a sign of a lack of liquidity,

[07:19] right? So in other words, it's like we

[07:22] know Kevin Wars was going to be doubbish

[07:25] but he wasn't dovish quick enough.

[07:27] That caused the yen problems. We knew

[07:30] SpaceX was going to peak, but it peaked

[07:33] before the end of the month, earlier

[07:35] than expected. We knew that Micron was

[07:39] going to be really sensitive at the time

[07:41] of earnings, but instead of selling off

[07:43] on earnings, it sold off right before

[07:45] earnings and then the day after the day

[07:48] after earnings, two days after earnings.

[07:50] Right on top of that, which we also saw

[07:54] coming because we subscribed to the

[07:55] Alpha Wire, which is totally free. You

[07:57] could get on the Meet Kevin app. um

[07:59] Apple Android app store. We saw that

[08:01] Apple was rumored to raise prices uh on

[08:03] their devices by 16 to 20% and they did.

[08:06] Unfortunately, that dragged Apple down.

[08:09] So now you've got six bearish items that

[08:12] occur inside of the tech stack. And

[08:15] where are people flocking? That's what

[08:18] we're going to talk about next. But all

[08:19] of this is a downweight to bullish end

[08:22] of the month targets for the NASDAQ 100

[08:25] because technology stocks are basically

[08:27] getting hammered especially hardware

[08:29] exposed relative to where expectations

[08:32] have been and this is unfortunate. It it

[08:35] it means that in the short term we had

[08:38] noopsy dupsy and I apologize for that.

[08:41] Can't be perfect all the time. I know I

[08:43] know people regularly they say Kevin how

[08:45] how are are you hitting all these

[08:46] targets on the alpha report or you know

[08:48] whatever and it's like well we don't

[08:50] always uh and this is unfortunately uh I

[08:54] mean one of the first ones that I could

[08:55] think of in a while off the top of my

[08:57] mind here where uh you know we we're

[08:59] just not going to hit our QQQ price

[09:01] target for the end of the month. Uh, and

[09:03] I'm disappointed by that. And I'm not

[09:05] trying to make excuses because I still

[09:07] think that I'm correct on Warf. I'm

[09:12] correct on SpaceX. I still think I'm

[09:16] correct about that. The Harbor Cycle

[09:19] still has legs. AVG go, you know,

[09:20] Broadcom and Micronics are so freaking

[09:22] good. We've still got legs on that

[09:25] movement. But unfortunately, when you

[09:27] combine all these things together, it

[09:29] means we could be right about the long

[09:31] term, but wrong about the timing in the

[09:33] near term. And I think it's worth being

[09:35] transparent about that. Uh, of course,

[09:37] then you can add in number seven, that

[09:38] Kevin is still somehow on vacation. I'll

[09:40] be back on Sunday, so maybe that's the

[09:42] true catalyst. That said, let's get into

[09:45] where markets are actually going right

[09:47] now, and that is to some extent cyber

[09:50] security, but also software. Now, I want

[09:53] to caution some of this. Excuse me

[09:56] because we have seen this game before.

[09:59] So I really want to be careful here. Uh

[10:02] first of all I want to look at what some

[10:04] software movers have done today. We had

[10:06] Axon stock up 4 and a.5% great into it

[10:09] up almost 5%. Palunteer which has been

[10:11] plummeting close to my $89 price target

[10:14] or trending in that direction was up 5%

[10:16] today. Cloudflare up 46. Crowd Strike up

[10:19] three. Meta up 13. and Microsoft up

[10:23] almost 6%.

[10:25] Uh, in my opinion, and that's a $2.7

[10:27] trillion company. In my opinion, some of

[10:30] what's going on here is a short squeeze.

[10:32] I think a lot of stocks like Microsoft

[10:34] and Meta, uh, into it, Axon have been

[10:37] shorted and, uh, as a result, we get

[10:40] these these sort of relief days where

[10:42] the shorts take profits, they have to

[10:43] cover, they have to buy the stock. Those

[10:45] are not necessarily lasting moves. I

[10:48] can't call a software bottom yet. I

[10:50] still maintain that a software bottom

[10:52] will come in the third or fourth

[10:53] quarter, but I don't know exactly where.

[10:54] And I do think there are opportunities

[10:56] to buy software, which even though I

[10:57] haven't bought Palanteer yet, I am

[11:00] tempted to because it's getting cheap. I

[11:02] want to be clear, I'm not tempted to buy

[11:04] Bitcoin. I don't own Bitcoin. I don't

[11:06] own Ethereum. I don't own crypto. I

[11:08] think outside of like a maybe like a,

[11:11] you know, short week basis of like a

[11:14] week, a few weeks of a trade, I've never

[11:17] held crypto. Uh, and so I'm not

[11:20] advocating for that and I'm not trying

[11:21] to argue that, oh, crypto's bad, stay

[11:23] away. I'm just saying that's not what I

[11:25] think is the next play. I really think

[11:26] software is the next play. I just don't

[11:28] know when. So, I'm just being very

[11:30] transparent about that. You know, some

[11:31] knucklehead left a comment yesterday

[11:33] like, Cad, you're complaining about the

[11:36] market only down 4% off alltime highs.

[11:40] But the whole point of these videos is

[11:42] to help you pick up on directional

[11:44] trends that are occurring so you could

[11:46] see these things happen before they

[11:48] happen. You know, for example, when we

[11:50] turned bullish around April 4th, and I

[11:53] think this is really worth mentioning,

[11:55] we turned bullish around April 4th, the

[11:58] NASDAQ 100 was trading for around $590

[12:02] a share, you know, via QQQ. Uh, and now

[12:06] we're at 76.

[12:09] So yeah, we missed the upside price

[12:11] target, but we've had so much upside

[12:12] between then and now. And we've been

[12:15] right about the direction, but we've had

[12:16] a lot of doubters. Now people, you know,

[12:18] those same sort of people, but Kevin,

[12:21] why didn't you tell us to buy then? I

[12:23] did. And they're all documented videos,

[12:25] right? That's the beauty about this

[12:27] channel is is we're going to be

[12:29] transparent about the wins. Also, the

[12:31] L's. So the next phase that I see is not

[12:35] software right now. Even though IGV is

[12:38] moving, I'm going to tell you why I

[12:40] think IGV is moving. IGV is the uh

[12:43] EyesShares expanded software tech ETF.

[12:47] Uh it's been doing decently. It actually

[12:49] went up 4% today. So you look at IGV, it

[12:52] was up 4% today and the NASDAQ was down

[12:54] 1.38%.

[12:56] That's a that's a 5% spread between the

[12:58] two, which suggests that hardware is

[13:01] being sold and software is being bought.

[13:04] But that's too simplistic. You know,

[13:05] Nvidia is down another 1.6% which is a

[13:08] big deal for a big company like that.

[13:10] But it's too simplistic to say that. I

[13:12] think that Microsoft and Meta in it

[13:13] Axon, I think there was a little bit of

[13:15] short covering going on in these. And

[13:16] what's really actually driving IGV up

[13:19] lately are companies like Palo Alto

[13:22] Networks, cyber security plays. PanW has

[13:26] recently exploded in price. You know, I

[13:29] I uh I wish their growth was a little

[13:31] bit stronger. Uh, and even though their

[13:33] growth is good, I wish it was a little

[13:34] bit stronger. You know, just about a

[13:36] month ago, they were trading for around

[13:38] 130, 140, 150 bucks. Uh, and their stock

[13:41] price growth has been phenomenal. But

[13:42] I'll tell you where I see some of the

[13:44] skeletons in the closet. Stock price

[13:45] growth has doubled uh in that time

[13:48] frame. Cyber security stocks have done

[13:50] exceptionally well and they started out

[13:52] expensive and now they're even more

[13:54] expensive. Okay, so here's the problem.

[13:56] Let's zoom into a company like Palo

[13:58] Alto. Now, you're just going to have to

[14:00] rely on me talking about this verbally.

[14:01] This will be posted in the stock tab of

[14:03] the Mean Kevin app for all those of you

[14:05] who are members. So, you'll be able to

[14:06] actually see the analysis. You can also

[14:08] use our uh new stock tools uh and do the

[14:11] analysis yourself. That's all obviously

[14:13] included in your membership when you

[14:14] join over at meetke.com. We do have a

[14:16] price increase on the 30th, which is on

[14:20] Monday uh last day of the month. And

[14:22] that's also when we're coming out with

[14:23] our valuation reinvest product over at

[14:25] reinvest.co or houseock.com. That uh

[14:28] valuation feature is coming out on

[14:30] schedule. But let's look at PANW for a

[14:33] moment. So if I go to the cash flow

[14:34] statement on PANW over the last nine

[14:36] months, I actually have net income, but

[14:39] I have declining net income, which I

[14:40] find very interesting. The company has

[14:43] seen its net income decline by 33% over

[14:47] the last 9 months. A little odd. At the

[14:50] same time, their net income has gone

[14:51] down by, you know, that 30-ish percent.

[14:54] We've seen stock compensation rise by

[14:56] 39%. So, my assumption is they're paying

[14:59] more for AI talent while at the same

[15:01] time the company's net income is going

[15:03] down, suggesting their pricing power may

[15:05] not actually be as big as people think.

[15:08] Now, in fairness, their operating cash

[15:11] flow is great. It's up about 18.5% and

[15:14] they spend very little on capex. That's

[15:16] very different from a company like

[15:18] Microsoft or Meta, which are companies

[15:20] that are blowing money on capex. So is

[15:22] Google, you know, Alphabet. And as a

[15:25] result, they are actually able to

[15:26] repurchase stock. Something that, for

[15:28] example, Meta and Google have not been

[15:30] doing recently. Repurchasing stock.

[15:32] They've repurchased about a billion

[15:33] dollars of stock in the last nine

[15:34] months. Uh they have uh you know, in my

[15:38] opinion, they've recently gone through

[15:40] this transition of oh AI is a threat to

[15:42] AI as an opportunity. I think that's

[15:44] going to happen to software as well. And

[15:46] then we'll see those same or similar

[15:47] moves in some software stocks. I don't

[15:51] really personally like IGV because I

[15:53] don't like a lot of their holdings. You

[15:55] know, for example, they hold Adobe and

[15:57] they hold Service Now. Now, I apologize

[16:00] to or even Salesforce. Now, I apologize

[16:02] to people who own those three stocks,

[16:04] Salesforce, Service Now, and Adobe, but

[16:06] I think those are three of the most AI

[16:08] replaceable stocks, whereas companies

[16:11] that utilize government data like Axon

[16:13] or business data like in it are some of

[16:15] the least replaceable stocks. Yes, it is

[16:18] true that at into it some of their usage

[16:20] is declining because the free tiers as

[16:23] some would say the brokies that's not

[16:25] meant to be offensive that's what some

[16:26] analysts actually say they are not using

[16:29] the product because they could use other

[16:30] free services or AI or whatever but

[16:32] people with more complicated uh uh you

[16:35] know businesses are actually spending

[16:36] more money on the AI enhanced features

[16:39] at into it and you're seeing a similar

[16:40] thing over at Axon with more revenue

[16:43] coming in due to uh their AI enhanced

[16:46] platform I mean People don't even talk

[16:48] about Done and how valuable that's going

[16:50] to be for uh policing. Uh people don't

[16:52] even talk about how their artificial

[16:54] intelligence dispatching software, which

[16:56] is a company they acquired and now

[16:57] they're integrating even more AI into

[16:59] it, uh is is a moat that just doesn't

[17:01] exist anywhere else in my opinion. But

[17:04] anyway, so so I like Axon and into it

[17:07] and they do have exposure to it, but I

[17:09] personally think that Adobe and Service

[17:11] Now and Salesforce are more replaceable

[17:14] AI. I also don't like Oracle spending. I

[17:16] think they spend like drunken sailors.

[17:18] These are all high holdings. These are

[17:20] all within the top 20 holdings of IGV.

[17:22] So, I don't actually like IGV because of

[17:25] that. I'd rather pick the names that I

[17:27] like. Like right now, I do like their

[17:29] second largest holding, Microsoft. I'm

[17:30] getting close to liking Palanteer, their

[17:32] third largest holding. I am liking

[17:34] Apploving, which is about their seventh

[17:36] largest holding. Uh I also like in it,

[17:39] which is about their 14th largest

[17:41] holding, and so on and so forth. Right?

[17:43] So I don't like the whole IGV ticker. I

[17:46] like components of it. Now as far as

[17:49] their biggest holding PaloAlto Network,

[17:51] it's the cyber security momentum at a

[17:54] high valuation that I expect will

[17:56] translate to software survivors over

[17:58] time. The issue that I have with

[18:01] PaloAlto Networks though is not their

[18:03] balance sheet. Balance sheet is great.

[18:04] I've got about 5.2 billion in cash and

[18:06] cash receivables. I've got about two

[18:08] billion in current liabilities. So no

[18:09] liquidity issues over the next year. And

[18:11] even if I include the long-term debt, we

[18:13] really don't have liquidity issues.

[18:14] Long-term debt is uh sitting at around

[18:16] 1.9 plus 1.2 in convertibles, the

[18:18] converts are going to convert because

[18:20] the stock is going up and the long-term

[18:22] debt is more than offset by the cash

[18:23] that they have available even after

[18:24] current liabilities. So, balance sheet

[18:26] fine. What about the revenue statement?

[18:29] Well, this is where things actually get

[18:30] a little interesting. So, their total

[18:31] revenue went up 31.1%.

[18:34] But their total gross profit only went

[18:37] up about 21.4%.

[18:40] So pricing power is shrinking, which is

[18:43] odd. Why is their gross profit

[18:45] declining? Well, I mean, I shouldn't say

[18:47] declining, but only growing at 21% when

[18:49] their top line is growing at 31%.

[18:52] At the same time, their sales and

[18:54] marketing is up 46%.

[18:57] So, your top line is up 31%, but your

[18:59] sales and marketing is up 46%. So, are

[19:02] you having to spend more on sales and

[19:04] marketing to get more customers? pricing

[19:07] power is, you know, also shrinking. So,

[19:10] that's sort of a hm their SGNA doubled.

[19:13] In fairness, some of that could be

[19:15] because of recent acquisitions. Uh they

[19:17] have recently made a few uh

[19:18] acquisitions. Uh they acquired

[19:20] Chronosphere and Cyber Arc. Uh and uh

[19:24] they had revenue of 388 million and 391

[19:27] million uh for for for those companies

[19:30] combined. Um those companies also posted

[19:33] an operating loss of 523 and 524 million

[19:37] for the 3 and 9 months ended 20 uh April

[19:39] 30th 2026. That's sort of the combined

[19:42] uh in revenue and loss of both of those.

[19:44] So they acquired some money losing

[19:45] businesses. That could be part of why

[19:48] their margins are compressing. But it's

[19:50] also possible that cyber security stocks

[19:52] are a very competitive bunch. Cloudflare

[19:56] is losing money and yet their revenues

[19:58] are exploding and Crowd Strike is barely

[20:03] making any money which is weird. Like

[20:06] how do these companies that have been

[20:07] around for so long barely make money?

[20:10] And that's the biggest issue I have with

[20:12] these cyber security plays which makes

[20:14] their price to earnings growth multiples

[20:15] look very high because their EPS is very

[20:18] low. That makes me frustrated by cyber

[20:21] because I actually agree that cyber is a

[20:24] great beneficiary of artificial

[20:26] intelligence. Huge beneficiary, just not

[20:29] at the price. I like it. I'm very uh

[20:32] picky. Like I want Palanteer at 89 bucks

[20:35] and I'm going to wait until I get my

[20:36] Palanteer at 89 bucks. Now, if this

[20:38] proves to be a software bottom and

[20:40] Palanteer skyrockets from here, well, I

[20:42] guess I missed my opportunity. But I

[20:44] think this recent software push we've

[20:45] seen is the same that we've seen about

[20:47] four weeks ago and a couple weeks even

[20:49] before that where you get like one or

[20:51] two updates on stocks like Microsoft and

[20:52] then they go down even more. This is why

[20:55] the allocation that we're throwing into

[20:57] stocks while we're allocating stocks is

[20:59] relatively low to cash or other assets

[21:03] because some valuations are, you know,

[21:05] some stocks are still falling knives and

[21:07] you're going to be able to get them

[21:08] cheaper. Other stocks just have

[21:09] ridiculous valuations.

[21:12] This is all combined with the fact that

[21:14] I was still overall and economically

[21:16] bullish on Train America. So, this is a

[21:20] lot of information to ingest and I

[21:23] personally think and maybe I'm wrong

[21:24] about this. Maybe leave me a comment.

[21:25] Although I don't think if I'm wrong

[21:27] about this, the the people who would

[21:28] tell me I'm wrong about this are

[21:29] actually watching this. But, you know,

[21:31] for the 10 of you watching to the end,

[21:33] first of all, I really appreciate you. I

[21:35] I my goal is to provide perspective and

[21:37] and a lot of perspective on what's

[21:40] actually happening out there. And my

[21:41] goal is that hopefully you're like, "Ah,

[21:43] I didn't think about that confluence of

[21:46] Apple, SpaceX, Bon, SpaceX, the Japanese

[21:48] yen, Kevin Worsh, and Micron all

[21:50] happening at the same time, tanking the

[21:51] cues down, screwing up timing as quickly

[21:55] as it did." Oh, I didn't think about how

[21:57] cyber security looks expensive because

[21:59] they barely make freaking money and they

[22:01] might be a competitive, really

[22:03] competitive business because any Joe

[22:04] Blow can go start a cyber security

[22:06] startup. I mean, okay, I'm not trying to

[22:08] be facitious to these companies, but

[22:10] there are a lot of cyber security

[22:11] companies out there, okay? Like, you

[22:13] look up, hey, I need a Pinterest done

[22:14] for House Hack, let's say. Dude, there

[22:17] are like 50 companies I can call and and

[22:19] you know, we've talked to a lot of them.

[22:20] We're like, man, how do you all even

[22:22] differentiate yourselves? Geez. Um, kind

[22:26] of wild. Uh, but anyway, so so putting

[22:28] all of that together, my goal is to

[22:29] provide unique insights based on what

[22:31] we're seeing as business operators, uh,

[22:34] but also as financial analysts. what I'm

[22:37] seeing on actual documents. Uh and then

[22:39] of course just being transparent where

[22:40] where uh things are going well and

[22:43] correct and where things are wrong. Uh

[22:45] and so hopefully that transparency is

[22:47] useful to you. If you want more of that

[22:49] sort of analysis or transparency, come

[22:51] join us. Go to mekevin.com, pay once.

[22:53] You get lifetime access to uh the all

[22:56] the courses on building your wealth, the

[22:58] alpha report, the course member live

[23:00] streams. Those things will always be

[23:01] included in your in your lifetime

[23:03] membership and we want to keep providing

[23:05] more value uh for those members. So

[23:06] consider joining. Thank you so very much

[23:08] for being here and uh with that folks, I

[23:10] will see you in the next video. Oh, look

[23:12] at that. I could zoom in and out. Whoa.

[23:15] Like and subscribe.

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