Market Collapse? Ruble Heads to 85, Sberbank, VTB, X5 Under Pressure

[00:01] Let's look at some securities and also discuss the current economic and political situation. What influences the market, where is it heading, how will things begin, how will they end, how will the heart calm down.

[00:14] My name is Zvezn Artem Anatolyevich. I have been in the markets since 2008. Qual investor. Certificate of the Central Bank. Here is my yield chart. Let's go. Before we get going , a quick announcement. We have a fantastic personal tutoring service

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[01:11] economic and political agenda that is currently on the agenda. So, I am now asking you to slowly prepare to write denunciations against me and write, in fact, to the prosecutor's office or wherever you write, that I am such a bastard, I don't like Putin, I don't like the

[01:27] government, that I am such a bastard, I don't like Palalych and what he did. But of like Palalych and what he did. But of course there is no point in remaining silent. The main story of the week is fuel. Fuel, of course, has already become a pain in the neck among my

[01:42] colleagues, but it is an important economic factor. The mandatory sales standard factor. The mandatory sales standard has been reduced over the past week from 15 to 10% of production volume. And with all this, a reduction in the standard for diesel is being discussed in parallel

[01:56] . This news went unnoticed by most people, meaning it seemed like some kind of technical measure. But in fact, this is a signal, and it indicates that there is enormous tension in the fuel market, and the state

[02:11] is forced to intervene manually. When this happens, it means that it's already Alice, because usually both the government and the commander-in-chief always let things slide in the hope that they will eventually resolve themselves. But it is clear that it does not

[02:25] resolve in this case. In addition, RBC separately noted that various fuel restrictions have already begun to take effect in more than 40 regions

[02:37] story. That is, the fuel crisis is now affecting the entire country, and it has become a national news story. And it hits logistics, agriculture, business very hard, and ultimately hits

[02:52] inflation. Alberi has already written that it plans to increase commissions due to rising costs. In general, I even feel sorry for those who trade on marketplaces give to marketplaces

[03:06] into creating your own websites and purchasing advertising? It seems to me that it would be even cheaper. And all this logistical tension, because we must keep in mind that we are in the largest country, the longest country. If you

[03:19] manufacture a product somewhere, for example, in Salikamsk, then moving it to Sochi will simply be unprofitable, because your logistics costs there will be, it seems to me, almost half of that product. In the context of gasoline shortages and

[03:33] rising costs, this will, of course, have a very painful impact on the final price, and uncompetitive. And I won’t even mention the export of goods. International markets are closed. We are left with the Indian and Chinese markets, where

[03:48] loans are generally 2% to 3%. And if we talk about Pakistan, for example, or India, there are also low wages there for this reason. The goods there will be much cheaper than ours. That is, I don’t even know how

[04:01] producers will get out of this now. That is, there is no solution yet. However, why am I saying all this? Because everything comes down to the Central Bank. This fuel crisis and the current events in general are having a major impact on

[04:14] business. Businesses are facing rising costs. We are now seeing an emerging systemic crisis, which, well, is basically like something out of a textbook. We can recall the same Venezuela, we can recall Brazil, we can recall, in

[04:27] general, any countries with a bad economy. It's always the same situation there. That is, there is a very strong national currency against the backdrop of high interest rates. In this regard, business does not grow, goods and services become uncompetitive,

[04:41] and if there is also a closed international market, then it is just a complete mess, yes. And for this reason, of course, investors read all this and refuse to take risks in Axes. It's easier for them to buy the same collapsed bonds, which

[04:55] we'll get to a little later. It’s easier for them to buy more understandable tools. And many investors are switching to rubles. And this is one of the topics that has also been heard over the last week. RBC conducted a survey of analysts, and

[05:10] analysts expect approximately 85-95 rubles by the end of 2026. for 1 dollar. As for the current price, many expect it to be around 76-82 rubles. If we

[05:22] expect it to be around 76-82 rubles. If we talk about the dollar versus the yuan, it is 11.3 and approximately 12 rubles. Well, here it is clear that the ruble, we will continue to look at the ruble using technical analysis, and it is clear that the ruble has begun to fall, and this is even a plus

[05:34] for the budget, yes, because export revenue is being recalculated and the budget is gradually filling up. But you and I started with the fuel crisis. The government is now starting to buy gasoline from India, starting to buy gasoline

[05:51] from Belarus, and it is buying at market prices. And this is the situation that arises. We sell oil at a discount and purchase gasoline at market prices. And you see, we end up with such a big spread, so to speak, yes, a big difference. This

[06:05] definitely can't go on for long. The government needs to come up with something about this. This means either a cessation of hostilities or the adoption of serious geopolitical decisions, because this cannot continue for much longer. This is a huge

[06:19] , of course, only get bigger little by little . Besides this, everything is still being delayed at the geopolitical level. If we're talking about the current political agenda, so to speak, it seems that some negotiations are taking place between Kyiv and France

[06:35] regarding the supply of air defense systems and an interceptor. For an ordinary person, this is, you know, what news from a political bloc sounds like. But for the market, such news, in general, has direct significance. The higher the geopolitical tension, the higher the

[06:48] sanctions risk and the more cautious big money becomes. What I wanted to uncertainty, even though everything looks very clear here. Well, let's now move on to analyzing the markets. Let's start with the government

[07:02] bond index. This is an index of government bonds. There is no point in conducting a technical analysis here bonds. There is no point in conducting a technical analysis here . The speed of the fall and its magnitude are important here. Let's look at the big picture. Here we are in 2020,

[07:16] when we had Covid. Look, we've had a serious fall here. Then the Central Bank, let me remind you, quickly raised the rate to prevent some kind of serious crisis, and then the Central Bank quickly began to lower this rate. As a result, we

[07:31] saw growth in bonds. Then the fall happens again. And this decline ends in 2022, when we experienced tragic events that are clear and well-known to everyone. Then our market started to grow because the Central Bank raised the interest rate

[07:46] accordingly. There was some growth, some correction. Somewhere around September-October of 25, the Central Bank began to lower the rate again. And now, over the last week, we have seen a serious drop of 5%. That is,

[07:59] pay attention to the speed and the magnitude. I repeat, this is a government bond index. What matters here is not whether things rise or fall. What matters here is the speed of fall, that is, acceleration.

[08:14] There is a big difference between 2022 and 2026. This, of course, is an increased budget deficit. Our colleagues are already writing on forums that we could wake up one day and find out that all our money is in NATO countries. Our budget is empty, and in this budget there is a

[08:30] huge hole. And this needs to be constantly kept in mind, because the economic data that could be used for analysis is now classified under the pretext of the SVO. In this regard, it is important to look at the market context,

[08:45] and not at the numbers it produces. And the context is very bad now. Everything is falling : bonds, stocks, only the currency is rising. And here we go back to the very beginning, where we started. All this looks like the beginning of a full-fledged

[08:59] crisis. Let's look at the ruble together. I made a pretty good profit on the ruble over the last week. May God bless each of you. You know, I had an esoteric past, so I'm now charging

[09:16] the ruble, everything looks, frankly speaking, well, negative. That is, everything points to a subsequent fall of the ruble. This is a daily chart. If we look at the events that are happening now, we have here the beginning of a reversal of the bearish trend. What does

[09:31] this reversal indicate? Firstly, our volume started to grow. Please note that the increase in volume occurs against the backdrop of the emergence of a short-term bottom. Let me remind you that we had a forecast here that the market would go lower. We then laid down up to 75.

[09:48] The market reached this, broke through and began to reverse. And how did he break through? We see the emergence of volume. This indicates the emergence of demand in the market and indicates the emergence of more pessimistic views among market participants . This is what

[10:02] we said before. In principle, this all coincides with the beginning of the fuel crisis. It started somewhere around July, late May. And we see a reversal in current prices precisely in July at the end of May . Let's write a

[10:18] spread here. Turn. I think it's below 7170 rubles. For 1 dollar we will, in principle, never see it again. Most likely, this is a total

[10:30] bottom that will be constantly maintained and at which people will buy like crazy . What do we see next? We see an acceleration of growth. We see the market starting to accelerate rapidly. And this acceleration occurs in volumes. However, the volumes are

[10:44] not critical. And therefore, it’s impossible to say that this is some kind of culmination, but there are no purchases . For this reason, next week is most likely a small correction into the 77-778 range,

[10:57] because the market is currently a little overheated. With a subsequent move to 82, overheated. With a subsequent move to 82, xia5, and a subsequent breakout, that is, a breakout of level 83.

[11:09] Here at level 83, I will write what we need to watch, because the level is quite strong. And here speculators who speculators who bought the market at 70-71 can join in. They will start to

[11:23] take profits here at 83. This is exactly equivalent to 10 rubles. That is, a psychological mark. We'll have to see here. That is, if the market continues to have pessimistic assessment that exists now, we will most likely see a

[11:38] subsequent breakout and movement higher. But I'll probably make some new I'll probably make some new review. Overall, we are now seeing upward movement here . Let's take a look at Sberbank's promotion. We haven't launched a Sberbank promotion for 100 years

[11:51] . Let me remind you that our key level is at 328. We expected constant losses from this level, which is exactly what started to happen. What do you want to say? Please note that this is a monthly chart showing how our

[12:05] volumes at Sberbank have been falling throughout the year. What does this tell us? What this tells us is that the price of tell us? What this tells us is that the price of 328 seems very expensive to investors for this security. At the same time, we are now seeing an increase in volume

[12:17] in June of the twenty-sixth year. And our next candle opens at the tail of the previous month. The month has just begun. We'll have to see how it all ends. For now, it is too early to talk about a calming of

[12:31] the market or a calming of the bearish sentiment that we are observing, accordingly, at Sberbank . Let's move on to the weekly schedule. We see a surge in volume last week and this week is closing

[12:45] within last week. This suggests that we are in a very bearish mood. On the one hand, and on the other hand, this indicates the impossibility of downward selling pressure and

[12:58] the impossibility of upward buying pressure. And let's move on to the daily time frame. move on to the daily time frame. Range below 300 rubles. They buy for one paper Range below 300 rubles. They buy for one paper , sell in the range above 324

[13:12] . That is, at the top we have a sales area formed here, and at the bottom we have a purchase area for a major player formed. What does this mean? Pay attention to the volumes. They are clearly buying here and buying for reasons other than their own. And it’s

[13:26] not retail traders who are buying. This is where the big players buy. Only on the Internet, unfortunately, the big players always win. If the geopolitical agenda next week or the week after turns out to be

[13:38] very serious, then in this case we will see the liquidation of these major participants, and then our market could drag us lower, somewhere around the drag us lower, somewhere around the 272 area. Therefore, a

[13:50] dual situation is emerging now. We have the first forecast. If the current geopolitical situation doesn't worsen, we'll continue to be in a sideways range where the market won't have the strength to fall below 300 or above

[14:05] 324. This is the first scenario. The second scenario is, unfortunately, the most likely. This is, after all, the emergence of some kind of negative geopolitical some kind of negative geopolitical situation. A break below 292.

[14:18] In this case, the major participants' morzhenko will be triggered. And then we major participants' morzhenko will be triggered. And then we will see a drain to 272. If we talk about probability, the probability of a current short is approximately 70%, the probability of a sideways movement is

[14:33] approximately 30%. Well, the sideways range is between, of course, yes, 328 and 300. I understand that it sounds like that now, you know . Can go up, down and sideways.

[14:45] Sorry, this is the situation, nothing can be done. Moreover, we see a be done. Moreover, we see a rebound from the middle of this midday. This means that market participants do not intend to buy at such high

[14:57] prices. If there really was a buyer here, we would have consolidated above 313, that is, above the middle of this big drop. And then I would say that we are really in a buying mode. That's why the situation is like this. Let's watch VTB with you

[15:11] . Let me remind you that at VTB we already had a forecast. It was published in our VKontakte group, so please scan the QR code and check out our VKontakte group. Our group is also available on Telegram and Max.

[15:26] You can scan it and take a look too. Everything is duplicated there. As for VTB, Everything is duplicated there. As for VTB, let me remind you that our region 90 was the sales area of ​​a major participant. We touched it, that is, it stopped, and then the

[15:40] movement continued downwards. We had a short position open from the 80 range to the 7326 range with a question mark up to 68. We reached the first target and, accordingly, covered ourselves. Our second target is

[15:53] 68350. We missed it by a bit , but I think we can, in principle, reach it next week . Let's define the next goal together. Our next target is 65.

[16:05] is 65. This is the October 2025 level. And it is important to make a clarification. We'll probably see a puncture below p here so that our stopouts will work. It is very difficult to indicate specific timings, but

[16:20] nevertheless, we are currently moving downwards. Let's open the monthly timeframe with you. On the monthly time frame, we are at a historical low. Our historical minimum is in the 62 area. We will most likely break through it. So,

[16:35] market participants are bearish on VTB. There is a bearish trend here. Here our market is moving down. We have an increase in sales volumes here. Everything here points to a subsequent fall. That is, there is no need to talk about a reversal yet. If

[16:49] you're not short the 80 range, as we were, shorting now is quite dangerous, so wait for a small correction, and then short to the 62 range. Next, we'll look at X5. Let me remind you that we already looked at X5

[17:04] God knows when and indicated with you the level of demand in the range of 2,200. We see that the market has bounced back very strongly from this range. Once again I am convinced how technically beautiful everything looks . Someone commented on my last

[17:18] . Someone commented on my last review: "What the [ __ ] are candles? That's not analytics, that's crap." It's amazing how I earned five apartments with this crap. A huge house, almost like a car park. Everything

[17:31] works. Everything works. You just need to understand where to insert these candles. If you insert them, Okay, we won’t elaborate, that’s clear. Let's open the monthly charts first. According to the monthly charts, I would

[17:44] like to, you know what? I would now like to put a Fibo grid here to see where our middle and 61% are. We are now exactly at the level of demand that we indicated earlier. But there is a fundamental

[17:59] factor at play here. This is a drop in consumption. The cost of food has become very high. Against the backdrop of the fuel crisis. supply chain will become more complex. And as a result, we have a poor population

[18:16] whose income is falling and who cannot buy anything because everything is very expensive. Moreover, by the middle of the twenty-sixth year, many companies, at least 30% of them, are planning to lay off

[18:32] employees. This means that we may now see a reduction in staff. All this will, of course, affect consumption. What X5 shares are there? People would like to buy pasta on sale, which will be expensive due to the growth of supply

[18:46] chains. Everything is very bad. Therefore, at the moment, although we have approached the level of demand and have seen a breakthrough, I would, to be honest, not talk about a full-fledged reversal . We have this rebound below the middle. This suggests that our

[18:59] market participants do not perceive this level of demand as the bottom and expect a further drop. We also see an increase in volumes, but this increase in volumes is not critical. Notice that it is not that tall. And we previously saw an increase in such volumes in March of

[19:13] 26, in May of 26, in February of 26. That is, it doesn’t really have any effect. That is, it is impossible to talk about a full-fledged reversal here. Therefore, let us define the next level with you.

[19:25] From here we will continue to move downwards. Our next level is in the 1.881 range. Next week we will see a small correction followed by a move towards 1890.

[19:40] That is, this is a rather bearish scenario. X5 has futures, so if you scenario. X5 has futures, so if you can't short the stock, there are futures, you can short the futures. Well, if there are futures, then there must be upsons. But I'm

[19:54] honestly not sure, so I'll have to see. Friends, let me remind you that we offer personal training services. If you would like to learn the tata personally, meeting with a teacher three times a week for two months,

[20:08] please submit your request using this QR code. I wish you good luck and this QR code. I wish you good luck and prosperity. Happily. earn money