Luck Doesn't Exist in Sports Betting: Proof

[00:03] long-term profits are guaranteed. However, in the short term, luck, or in mathematical terms, variance, does play a role. And that's what I'm going to

[00:15] explain in this video. First, I'll give you a quick reminder of what value bets are, but if you want to see them in detail, I explain it in the first video of this free course. Then we'll look at real experiments showing how

[00:30] variance affects the short term, then the long term, and finally, a real example of bets I make myself. Value bets were when we placed bets that paid us more than they should have. In the first

[00:46] video, I showed you the bets from the software I use, where we took advantage of the bookmaker's error. We placed bets with higher odds than they should have been, and thanks to this, long-term

[01:00] profits were guaranteed, as you can see in the graph with more than 16,000 bets. By the way, you can access this Excel file with a link in the description. That said, short-term profits are not guaranteed, and

[01:15] we'll see this with an example to make it simple. And to simulate this, as an example I'm going to use a coin toss; that is, we'll have heads and tails, and the actual probability of each is 50%. Instead of a coin, it

[01:31] could be a tennis or baseball match, any bet with two options. Although, yes, with a tie too, you already know that the probability and the odds are simply distributed over three instead of two. And obviously, for

[01:45] the results to make sense with what we 're studying, I'm going to add a little value to our odds. In this case, the coin toss, since it has a 50% probability, the odds should be $ for both heads and

[02:01] tails. However, to add value, I'm going to set 2.20 for heads and 1.8 for tails. We will obviously bet on heads since that's where we're being

[02:13] paid more than we should be. If it were other probabilities, it would be exactly the same, but I haven't found any simulator to do it. But the math is the same. To do these experiments, I've used

[02:27] a website that you can go to yourselves to do your own calculations. Remember that we are betting on heads since that's where we They pay more than they should. Let's start with the experiment,

[02:41] for example, with 10 spins. As you can see, it came up heads three times and tails seven times. If we had bet $1 each time on heads, bet $1 each time on heads, we would have bet a total of $100. I've

[02:55] earned a total of $10 per bet. For three correct picks at odds of 2.2, that's a loss of $34. We made

[03:08] value bets, yet we lost, and this is only because there are 10 spins and it's the is only because there are 10 spins and it's the short term. In the short term, luck plays a role. Theoretically, we should have won 50% of the time, that is,

[03:24] five spins. If we multiply that by $10 and the odds of 2.2, the theoretical income should have been $ 110, and therefore a profit of $10. But as I said, in the short term, variance or luck exists.

[03:41] You can see this in the Excel results; in the "Euros Generated" column, it's always increasing regardless of whether you win or lose. Let's try now with 100 spins. In other words, 100 bets, as you can see, have resulted in

[03:58] bets, as you can see, have resulted in 54 heads and 46 tails. If we had bet $0 each time on heads, we would have bet a total of $1,000. I have received a total of $ per bet for 54 correct predictions at odds of

[04:19] 2,288, meaning a profit of $18. In this case, variance has worked in our favor. We have won $18, but we should only have won $100. As you can see, variance is not

[04:33] bad; it can also be good. To finish these experiments, let's look at a long-term one. Let's try 10,000 spins, or in other words, 10,000 bets. The first thing I want to

[04:47] emphasize is that the more spins you make, the closer the experimental probability will get to the real probability. Look at the difference when we have spun 10 times and the difference with 10,000 spins. Looking at the

[05:04] results, 4944 heads and 5,056 flips. If we had bet $10 each time, we would have bet a total of $1,000. we would have bet a total of $1,000. I've deposited a total of $10 for

[05:19] I've deposited a total of $10 for 4,944 correct picks at odds of 2.2, a total of 10,876, meaning a profit of $876.68. And that's even with bad luck. We should have won 5,000

[05:36] flips, and therefore the profit would have been greater. To finish the video, I'm going to show you the real results of the bets sent by the Bet Investor software. It's the software I use and also recommend for its

[05:50] quality and price. But first, I remind you that if you want to learn more about value betting, go to the first video of the free course, and if you want to know more about Bet Investor, go to the second video. Let's go to the

[06:04] Bet Investor betting spreadsheet and select, for example, the month of May. If you notice, the first bets started very badly. Not only did we win less than we should have, only did we win less than we should have, but we lost money.

[06:18] However, we continued placing bets and trusting in the long term. You can see that the actual profit and the profit generated thanks to the value of the bets end up being practically the same, and you can

[06:35] practically the same, and you can verify this in the graphs for each month. The green line is the actual profit, and the blue line is the estimated profit. Sometimes our winnings will be higher than what was generated, and sometimes they will be

[06:51] lower, but in the long run, if you look at the totals with run, if you look at the totals with more than 16,000 bets, both will be equal. That's why, if you make value bets, long-

[07:06] term profits are guaranteed. But as I've shown you, in the short term, luck also plays a role. There's also a video in the free course where I teach you how to achieve this long-term success, not only by maximizing your profits but also by reducing

[07:22] your risk of bankruptcy to zero. And before explaining this method, if you're ever considering dedicating yourself to betting and earning a living from it, I recommend you watch the entire course. It's 100% free, and I'll tell you everything you need to

[07:35] know, give you the best tips, and show you the thousands of dollars I earn place so you can see that I'm not a fraud. Hey snake oil salesmen! If you want to succeed, watch all the videos. Use the same software and don't fall into the trap of

[07:51] scammers. If you want to know everything about betting, watch the free course. And if you want to know more about the Bet Investor software I use and recommend, Bet Investor software I use and recommend, click here.