Fresh Review: Gold, Novatek, VTB, MTS, Bashneft, Bank St. Petersburg, Lukoil, Element

[00:03] Friends, hello. This is a market review from April 20 to May 4. My name is Zvezn Artem Anatolyevich. I have been trading in the markets since 2008. Here is my yield chart. Let's Telegram channel. There I asked you to write down the

[00:17] analyzed. You wrote. And we'll start with gold. We have had a lot of people write about gold, and in particular, KD Snavzhenets, gold, silver, polyus and OFZ wrote. Let's start with gold. Well, first of all,

[00:30] geopolitical topic. Gold is, of course, influenced by geopolitics. It is impossible to deny this . Gold has been rising since 2022 and has risen, well, as you can see, simply incredibly. We see the monthly chart now. What do you want to say? And now,

[00:45] according to the latest data, in April Asia is reducing gold trading volumes, that is, it is stopping buying gold as much as it did before. And we know that gold has risen largely on Asian expectations, on Asian demand. And now

[00:59] this demand has begun to fall. Experts point to many reasons, but the official one is has been oversold, and that it is not profitable to buy now. Accordingly, a correction is expected in global markets by major countries. And

[01:14] indeed, if we now open the monthly charts and look at the monthly chart, you don’t need to be an analyst to see this monthly candle. This monthly candle, also called the rejection candle, is well

[01:27] known to all market participants who trade technical analysis. And those people who trade on price action, this is also called absorption. As this candle indicates, the previous movement has been absorbed, the

[01:42] prices that were there before have been absorbed. And here we come to the point of how to determine minimums and maximums. Ideally defined at high time intervals, friends. We are now on the monthly time frame. The only things higher than monthly are

[01:56] quarterly, then annual, and so on, but that's really out of the question, so monthly will be enough. The first way to identify lows and highs and plot levels is when you find the highest

[02:08] volatility candle with high volume. That is, look, we have a very large candle here and a large volume. And the minimum and maximum of this candle will be the levels. So here we set minimums and maximums and try to determine where the

[02:24] market is now. We see that the market is inside. Accordingly, if we are talking about a long-term distance, then we trade within these levels with selling from the top and buying from the bottom. Well, and, accordingly,

[02:38] during the rebound, we will enter into a rebound. I down and sideways, but now let's be a little more specific. Here we are engaged in practical trading and training first and foremost.

[02:51] probabilities that we can use. But we can already understand the details on a small time frame. In our case, we will now move on to the daily schedule and pay attention to the daily schedules. Well, friends, you don’t

[03:05] need to be an analyst to see this series of candles. They are also called brake plugs. We saw a similar example earlier here. And saw a similar example earlier here. And we see that after the first time our

[03:17] market is not very good. The second time, there is a squeeze again, braking candles, a lot of volume appears, and the market begins to grow. Based on this, we understand that we are now in a bullish trend.

[03:30] in a bullish trend. We have potential to 5.441. potential. There is another important point. We generally trade with you on the market. We do not trade on any one time frame. And

[03:42] multi-timeframe analysis. That is, we must understand that on a high time interval we had a rejection of the upper prices, on a short time interval we have a bullish trend. Based on this, we understand that if

[03:55] we have a bearish movement on a high time frame , then our next maximum should be lower than the previous one. To determine where our next maximum will be, we can only do so approximately. To do this, we

[04:08] can use the Fibonacci correction from the minimum to the maximum of the previously formed wave; we set the Fibonacci correction. We see that we are now in the green zone, and it is

[04:21] in the green zone that we most often experience a correction, and at the same time, our volumes fall. A drop in volume against the background of growth is called divergence. Divergence of price and volume. And it usually foreshadows a downward movement. Therefore, at the moment of the

[04:35] current area, that is, here, let us mark it. I'll mark it with a big triangle like this. And we'll sign it right away. Let's sign it as a potential reversal point. What does this mean? This means that we

[04:49] are now in a place where the market is very likely to make a new high. What should we see before entering the entry point? We should see a stop in the movement and a sharp impulse candle down. Just like it was

[05:04] impulse candle down. Just like it was here, here, here, here, approximately a similar candle, that is, a sharp jerk downwards. This will give us further movement down to the 4.122 range.

[05:17] Therefore, in the coming weeks I expect a stop followed by a downward movement. It is important to understand that we have a big bullish trend on the monthly charts. That is, if we look more globally, not locally, locally we actually

[05:31] have a downward movement here. That is, over a long time interval, over a correction, but this does not cancel out the global potential background, that is, the global upward movement. Therefore, we will connect there and start watching.

[05:45] While we are looking for a place for a downward movement in the short term , we will return to the long-term analysis a little later. Next paper Novatek. This is the third time we've well. Let me remind you that earlier I spoke about 1,400, I said that we

[06:01] are in a closed state. The market will go down. Next we had a target of will go down. Next we had a target of 1.252. We reached 1.252 just penny for penny. We designated this target as an intermediate pullback and waited for a

[06:13] buyer to appear here. When I said that if a buyer appears, the market will most likely grow. No buyer appeared, and now we can say that we have a reversal of the trend. Unfortunately, if earlier I expected

[06:29] more, you know, some kind of upward movement here, that is, we expected that we would have new buyers, and we are in a bullish trend, now everything resembles a sideways trend. Let's now move on to a larger time

[06:41] interval, a month. For a long time interval, for a month. And appearance of a large volume, also the appearance of a refusal candle here. The market continues to go down and now reaches 1.200, well, 1.160. Let's add some volume to this

[06:57] structure. What do we need it for? To understand where maximum demand could, in principle, appear. Things are bad. We see that we have a classic bell distribution pattern that is typical for sideways

[07:10] market segments. Moreover, we opened below the volume of 1.200. This was where the maximum , but unfortunately, no buyers appeared. Most likely, over the next few weeks, this will hang within this sideways trend,

[07:26] this will hang within this sideways trend, followed by a downward movement to the 1,000 ruble range. for paper. The reason for this is that we do not see demand emerging here . Please note, we have small volumes, the market is falling,

[07:38] there is no buyer. If buyers showed up here, we would see something like this. That is, we would see an increase in volume followed by an upward movement. This does not happen. So, we move further down. But since the market is

[07:51] a little overheated, we will hang around in the 1.150 range for a bit. We'll hang around in this range for a while and then, with a high probability, we'll go further down. To be honest, there's no sign of any shopping here yet . It's too early to talk about purchases.

[08:06] Only if it is within the framework of some investment portfolio, within the framework of averaging, can one enter here. We'll outline the following trajectory before we set foot here. Let me remind you that I have a Telegram channel. I asked them to write the

[08:19] tickers of the securities that needed to be analyzed. You wrote, we look. Scan the QR code if you want to get there. Everything, free. The next security is Bank Saint Petersburg. Let's open the

[08:33] monthly chart first and look at the monthly chart. There are obviously some really wild highs here. And we see how we are now at the maximum. The historical maximum was in the range of 420 rubles. for a security. And everything

[08:48] now reminds us of the situation of such a sideways movement right at the highs, we see how our volumes are falling right at the tops. This indicates that market participants are not willing to buy so high. At the same time, we have been observing a decline in volumes since 2003.

[09:04] That is, this is not literally today, this trend has been going on for several years. Moreover, it is growing. Our key level below is 300 rubles. for a security. below is 300 rubles. for a security. Top level 417-420

[09:18] rub. for a security. Therefore, globally, in the long term, movement here is most likely within the framework of this large sideways trend. The previous large sideways trend. The previous month's level is 327 and 343. What do you want to

[09:31] say here? Pay attention to the structure of the movements. Since my forecasts are different from most of my competitors, most of them just tell you something, and I also teach you along the way . So, pay

[09:43] attention to the structure of these candles. Look, we had a downward movement. Here it is, the downward movement. Here we have a bearish candle that has formed a small corridor. The next month, the whole month, the market trades

[09:56] within this candle. This indicates that buyers do not have enough power and that sellers dominate. Okay, let's look at the next candle. Look, the next candle is trading, well, at most 10 percent higher than this bearish candle. There are

[10:10] so few buyers that there are not enough of them to push the market up. And then, for the last 2 months, the market has been inside this bullish candle. All this indicates a lack of demand and indicates a

[10:25] lack of buyers. There are no buyers in the market who were willing to buy at the current high prices, which means that market participants understand that we are in a bear market, and market participants are refusing to buy so high. And,

[10:38] accordingly, the most likely movement is either within a sideways trend or within a downward trend. Let's move on to a short time interval to understand what is happening now. That's how it is , as they say, on earth. On

[10:53] the daily timeframe, it’s a classic sideways trend. within the range of 327 and 343. Therefore, over the next 2 weeks, it is obvious that we will continue to move and fluctuate within this sideways range. This gives us an advantage, since there are clear

[11:09] boundaries from which we understand where to buy and where to sell. Therefore, in the next 2 weeks we will sell from the upper border and buy from the lower border. VTB, let me remind you that we are currently reviewing the securities you

[11:23] requested to see on my Telegram channel. Available via this QR code. Let's move on to the monthly schedule. We observe that we have now come very close to the trend line area. We have a

[11:36] big bearish downward movement here. We are trading within this big triangle. And we are currently testing it. Next we will move on to the day's rest. We expected shorts to appear from the 87 to

[11:49] 90 ruble range. for a security. These shorts didn't happen, but notice how they did. Since today's issue is less about forecasting and last time. I said that here we have a seller and here we have a

[12:03] seller. And we expected that this seller would win, and we would go further down. The seller did not win. And how can we see this? Please note that the seller here has lowered his limits a little . That is, at first the position was

[12:17] here, then it was here, and after that there was a leap upward. And in order for the seller to exit his position, he was forced to buy with market orders. This is precisely why we began to move upward. What are

[12:32] we seeing now? We see that this movement, by and large, has already begun to end. We have entered a correction, a new wave is occurring. At the same time, our volumes are falling again. I remain bearish on VTB .

[12:45] Firstly, we are in a triangle, secondly, our volumes are falling. Thirdly, the liquidity we had from the seller has already run out. That 's why I'm bearish about Borsha. And in this range, I would look for a downward entry point

[12:58] this range, I would look for a downward entry point , a short to level 90, followed by a breakout to level 87. Frankly, I wouldn't sell the last cow under this trading signal, because VTB is largely influenced by the current political

[13:12] situation. But overall, for now we have an upward movement with a subsequent, possible downward movement and a correction here. The next security you Telegram channel is available via this QR code. This is, of course, Luke. So

[13:26] what can be said about Lukoil? Let's open the monthly chart with you first. Last month everything was very positive. And last month we had an upward movement. If we had closed last month roughly like this, yes, then we would have been

[13:40] saying that we have very serious buyers here, yes, we quite positive, nothing like that is happening. On the contrary, we see that this positive has

[13:52] turned into a negative overall. We have a refusal candle. Next, in the last month we capture the prices of the previous two months, which clearly indicates the emergence of a bearish trend, bearish strength. And all this is

[14:05] accompanied by a decrease in volume. This means that we are not at the means that we are not at the bottom now. Let's move on to the daily timeframe and look at the daily timeframe. We are currently expecting further downward movement.

[14:18] That is, there is no point in talking about a reversal here . Here is the subsequent movement to the 4.819 range. That is, we have this tendency. Further down. The first target of our short is the level of 5.100, approximately here. And

[14:35] we'll see what happens next, because the likelihood of further downward movement is serious. Let's look further at the MTS security. Let me remind you that we are looking at the securities that you sent from our Telegram group. Let's look at the TS. Let's move on to the

[14:48] monthly chart. Guys, well, it’s clear here that we’re in a very tight sideways trend . What's interesting is that during the upward movement, namely since September 25, we see that we are experiencing a compression of the range, that

[15:02] is, well, a classic structure of rejection of the movement of upper prices. So let's define the levels together. Our first level is 1.461, the second level is 1.127. Let's move on to the daily timeframe. The trend here is still bearish

[15:18] . A, there are no prerequisites for further downward movement. In principle, it is possible to work within the short range up to the 1.140 range. I have nothing more to add here. That is, we continue to move within the framework of this bear. Here, in principle,

[15:32] you can enter right now, but keep in mind that volatility should offset the commissions you will pay for the show. Next up, let's watch Bashneft - Elvira wrote about Bashneft in the Telegram channel, accessible via this

[15:44] QR code. Let's open the monthly chart with you. Here we see a straight long-term bearish move. Moreover, it began back in 1916 and is still ongoing. That is, here we had an upward movement within the framework of the

[15:59] pumping that occurred in connection with those sad geopolitical events that Vladimir Putin caused. But after that, after the influx of money has ended, further movement continues. We see that the

[16:11] positive, but this entire month, all these positive prices and the entire upward surge, were used by buyers only to get out of this position. And this upward movement within this volume

[16:24] is more like an exit. Therefore, here again there is a candle of refusal, as in the entire market. And here the situation is also complicated by the presence of a bearish downward movement. Important level 1.396, 1.400 plus or minus. And the next important

[16:40] level for us is, of course, 1.837. Let's move on to the daily timeframe. to the daily timeframe. Our closest local level is the range of 1.475 Our closest local level is the range of 1.475 and 1.000, which comes out to 621. We see that

[16:54] we are experiencing a drop in volume. Let's also superimpose a volumetric profile for the sake of interest . Here we see how we move away from the volume, break through the lower boundary of the price zone, roll back to it and continue to lie down. This is just a bearish

[17:08] down. This is just a bearish signal. Therefore, we expect a further breakout of this level and a movement towards the 1.400 range. The last security to be concluded is, of course, the element. On the monthly charts, we are in a

[17:21] downward trend movement in the element. Let's outline the nearest levels with you. This is this nearest levels with you. This is this level. And, of course, we have level 1.46. On the daily timeframe, we have a bullish trend that is quite specific. Well, for

[17:37] securities this is, in principle, normal. Indicates that this security is being acquired gradually, possibly as part of some trading strategy. Therefore, we continue to move upward within the framework of this bullish trend.

[17:50] I put a question mark here because this type of saw usually cuts through everything in its path, so there is a possibility of further upward movement. But if any negative information comes out about this security, we understand that these

[18:02] buyers will be forced to cover their losses, and they, accordingly, will push the market down. We can see a candle like this or a candle like this when the dog knows it. It is unclear when this might happen, but it is a

[18:15] matter of time before it happens. Please subscribe to our Telegram channel and take advantage of our training courses, they're really cool. training courses, they're really cool. Earn happily.