Tech Rally Analysis: Microsoft vs Meta — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:02] [music and singing] La. Yeah.

[00:21] What's up, JC Nation? Good morning. It's a fantastic Thursday and we've got Meta a fantastic Thursday and we've got Meta down bad, Microsoft up big and uh interest rates that haven't changed. Surprise, surprise. My name's

[00:33] >> My name's Mike. I'm here with Jamal. >> Jamal, how you doing this morning? >> Doing good. I think we should change it up and do a little soft speaking. >> it would be good. >> Uh, join us on the YouTube channel if

[00:46] you haven't already. If you have, great job out of you. But uh throw in your hand side chat. We'll get to them throughout the morning show. What a day yesterday was. >> Yeah, like about 130 point range. Um

[01:02] [clears throat] that was even in within one hour. Just a wild day yesterday uh after the Fed meeting. It was everything that we build it up to be and then some hours we got the earnings. You just

[01:14] mentioned them. Big moves there. A big divergence in those two names. Um, as days, we had the M's yesterday, we have the A's today. We'll see if Apple and Amazon deliver as well. But it's been a crazy 24 hours, that's for sure.

[01:27] crazy 24 hours, that's for sure. >> Yeah. Uh, and I think for me, I like I I feel like Apple and Amazon have to follow suit with Microsoft. Feel like Meta is kind of in a an interesting unique spot. But yeah, Microsoft huge

[01:41] move up to the upside 27 points and we still have plenty of other earnings there. Uh but yeah, they crushed earnings yet again. >> Crushed it >> and uh I think this is potentially a

[01:55] turning point for the market where uh people start to realize Microsoft is still a Mag 7 stock and >> it can't be beaten down forever. They will prevail at some point. >> Yeah. Stock trading 426 in the

[02:08] pre-market. So, we're going to see a big green bar today. Um, but I think the well, I don't know if I I didn't hear anything about any issues with free cash flow with them. You did hear it with Meta. And apparently, they're just

[02:21] now in earnings, you're going to get hammered if you're if you're if you're saying that in in your uh in your earnings announcements. So, uh same deal just high. They're spending a lot of money um on the AI build. Now, it's

[02:34] I'm going to I mean I love seeing this stock down 10% matter. I'm going to try and look to get long. Why not? Uh this what we do, traders trade. But uh the now because they're spending a lot of money and we've seen this with so many

[02:49] surprise. >> Yeah. Uh Ben and Production pulled that really highlight yesterday's movements. I mean it was insane. We had the market down 100 points and I was talking to Q. I was like, is this a

[03:04] signal that we were getting an interest rate hike? And we were like, I don't know. I don't I don't think they want to surprise the market. And then uh they And I was like, well, if they keep the rates the same, maybe you see a rally

[03:16] from this bottom here, which you did, but I did not see the third reversal coming down the pipeline. Uh where we were up basically flat from being down 100 and then we resold off to new lows on the session. Yeah, it was wild. I

[03:33] mean, um, so [laughter] and I'll have to talk through this because, um, as uh, the remember two days ago, I think it was, I don't even keep up with all the days, but I put on a super bear. I know for sure at least a

[03:46] 28th, and I put on a super bear for the 30th, that was my thought. Like, again, it was kind of a a protective measure, too. Um, but I was like, you know, in case we have some crazy move to the downside, I

[03:59] I want this on. and I did it for basically today. Um, but I was trading closed it. I actually put it on again and then closed it again. Um, so yeah, that that worked out pretty darn well

[04:12] yesterday. It was it was pretty wild, man. But, uh, yeah, let's uh let's do different things to discuss and then we got Chris coming up a second. Let's about today. We got morning news with Chris Veio. We got morning movers with

[04:25] Gus at 8 a.m. Central. We got overnight moves with Liz Deer King at 8:15 open uh at 8:30, which is going to be fascinating to see if we're still up, honestly. Uh then we got a SIBO check-in with Eric Coleman. We got inside the

[04:39] trade with Dr. Jim at 900 a.m. Central. Then, uh we take a little break, but Dr. Jim will be on solo. We come back, Mike and I, and talk charts with Tim Knight. And then we got Tasty Research with Julia at 9:30. And then we have a

[04:53] special guest at 9:50 a.m. Central time. So, lots lots to talk about today. Once again, >> 100%. Uh interest rates held steady. If you look at the CME Fed Watch tool or the predictions markets uh within our

[05:08] platform, you can see you've got uh you know kind of a hit 50/50 for September. know kind of a hit 50/50 for September. Now, hike 25 base points is at 60%, maintain at 43%. And I think that that makes a lot of sense. If we didn't get

[05:21] it this decision, I think the probability increases that we get it the next decision. But these things are are, you know, flowing up and down every single day. I mean, this this means nothing at But right now, it's telling

[05:36] but come September, it could be completely flipped. >> Well, what really matters is what's going on with um the the yields currently. And so the 10ear right now is at 4.7%. I think the 30-year is at about

[05:49] at 4.7%. I think the 30-year is at about 5 uh gosh 5.23% highest since 2007. >> So that's what we really pay attention to day in doubt and that's what really matters. Yields are high and rising. >> Yeah, it's uh it's it's a crazy

[06:04] environment we're in. But uh we've got Chris Veio on the line. I would love to hear what Chris has to say with some of these things that happened yesterday. What a day. What a day yesterday, Chris. Yesterday was an unbelievable day for

[06:17] many reasons uh including Microsoft's earnings. There were they were uh fantastic given the expectations and given everything else that's going on in AI spending world. >> Yeah, they're going to gap higher. Uh

[06:31] looking at 427 right now. You can see on this morning session one minute chart. Uh what a day. What a day Microsoft's bullish. Well, like Lizo said, >> it's about damn time. I mean, seriously,

[06:46] >> Yesterday on the show, we were talking how a lot of these companies, there's this proof of work test, uh, not proof of more work, right? And Meta and Microsoft kind of land on both sides of that fence. Microsoft showed

[06:59] acceleration in key revenue sectors tied to AI. They're able to monetize this a still spending money, they're spending a little bit less money than the market anticipated. So, they're figuring out how to make this work. Meta on the other

[07:11] hand, they clearly just still don't have a plan and investors are not happy with how Zuck goes about telling the story of what they plan to do next. So, uh, one work needed and the market reaction couldn't be more divergent.

[07:25] couldn't be more divergent. >> Yeah, Meta down 60 points over 10% at higher. >> Let's get that Fed day whipssaw uh back >> Let's get that Fed day whipssaw uh back up again. um that graphic cuz yeah I

[07:38] >> huh >> that long end of the yield curve >> yeah it's getting crazy yeah 30 year yeah I know right highest since 2007 right >> you know 1% wow

[07:51] >> folks are saying that uh Kevin Morris is empowering the bond vigilantes I would take it a step further and say Kevin Worsh is a bond vigilante at this point in time I mean he's effectively telling the market you guys do the work we don't

[08:03] rates Yeah. >> Um and so 30-year yield, it's just this policy looser at the short end for a longer period of time, you give more breathe. And that's reflected at the long end of the curve. So what happens

[08:18] of the market thought that we were going reflexively, those 30% of the people, they're wrong. Short end yields go down. But the long end of the curve blows out. So we get a steeper yield curve here. I

[08:33] this because somewhat curiously they had a really bad day yesterday. >> Banks usually like a uh a fatter yield curve like that, a widening steepening yield curve. And in fact, bull steepener or bare steepener, they actually kind of

[08:48] bull steepener versus a bear steepener? gets steeper. Long rates are higher than short end rates, but that's because yields are falling. It's just that short end yields are falling faster than long

[09:00] yields are rising and long and yields So that's what happened yesterday, right? We had a 9.7 basis point move in single day move that we've seen to the upside this year. And we basically

[09:14] erased two weeks worth of compression in the spread. So banks like that environment. They are able to uh get more net interest margin as it were. Net interest margin is the difference between the loans that they uh um

[09:27] service respectively like your mortgages and the deposits that they pay out um for your mom and pop. So I put money into the bank. Chase for example pays me that money and turn around through fractional banking and you know

[09:41] originate mortgages and they take in the 6% or so yada yada yada and that's difference between the short rates and the long rates is how they actually do So XLF had a really bad session down 1.6%. The yield curve is still widening

[09:56] out today. Oil's in a little bit. Stocks are bouncing. XLF is a place where I think we should be looking. Um the banks in particular, JP Morgan, this may be a buy the dip opportunity. So that's the first thing on my radar here today.

[10:10] >> While I completely agree with you, it is confusing because again, we saw similar action in 2022, right? Like I mean, you're absolutely right. Banks borrow at long end. I mean, right? They're lending us, you know, 30-year mortgages or

[10:23] from when we're putting in deposits, like you said. But it's it's it's it's confusing. I mean, because again, this this move it's kind of like oil stocks that Goldman. Oh my gosh. Might have to get in that. Um it's it's kind of funny,

[10:39] Like sometimes oil stocks act like oil stocks and sometimes they act like just regular stocks, right? And yesterday banks were acting like regular stocks and going down. But you're right, it it's it doesn't make sense. And sure

[10:51] going to turn around and be like, "Yeah, that was silly. Why were banks down?" Because they're going to be higher. But I I I'm going to be cautious and wait by that golden though, I might I might have to get a puts red in that.

[11:03] here because there's just two days left to go in the month. And I have a feeling that this might be the first red NASDAQ in 11 years. I know we were 11 for 11 coming into this July, >> but um we're, you know, going into the

[11:20] close yesterday, we were down over 10% for the month of July. Uh there's only five years in which you've had uh a NASDAQ with a double- digit decline uh a NASDAQ with a double- digit decline in a single month. 2000, 2001,

[11:34] 2002, 2008, and 2022. Five famously good years for bulls in the second half of the year. Oh, no wait. The producers are years for [laughter] bulls in the second half of the year.

[11:48] >> Uh, so let's see how we close this month. That's a really bad omen that may obviously 1.5% higher is good. Maybe we're going to save ourselves today. Apple, Amazon, these are not the scary hyperscalers. Apple has had that fiscal

[12:01] discipline. The market's been rewarding them handover fist for not spending too much money on the wrong things. Heck, even last week they announced like an an Amazon Alexa Echo device for the home based on Siri. Siri absolutely sucks.

[12:13] stock wasn't punished. I could think of a cycle maybe last year or even earlier this year. Apple announces a crummy AI offering and the market goes, "Ah, they're daylight dollar short. They're not doing enough." And so totally

[12:26] had a little bit better performance. It's not certainly not operating like a meta. So, um, I think we could be a little bit more optimistic for today's earnings. I'm still I'm still in a Super Bowl on Amazon for what it's worth. So,

[12:38] a little bit of a bounce. >> Yeah, >> one of us. One of us. He's one of us. Yes, >> Amazon's up uh seven points pre-market. So, that's a an interesting signal

[12:52] premarket. So, >> I got that my trade of the day yesterday was a diag put diagonal in here for that very reason, Chris. Um, and also like reason why the other reason why I got Super Bowls and SPX for August 3rd. I'm

[13:07] not doing anything bullish in July. Why? Cuz July is done. Like it's a wrap. July's a wrap. Time to get out of positions. If you're tomorrow and uh I'm very fortunate. This is one of the reasons why I don't like trading

[13:21] earnings. Uh I was short of put spread in Meta. That is probably at max loss, but there's still 22 days to go. If this was s sitting at one, I could be waking [snorts] >> How deep deep underwater it is. So, uh

[13:35] definitely clear in that definitely doing some sweeping here off the books >> Uh can we get that that chart up of the average stock versus S&P? I mean, we've been talking about this for a minute. Um and uh it it's it sort of was playing

[13:49] little bit weird, but I'm curious to see going forward. We've been talking about look at it. We've talked about equal weight. We've talked about the rotation we've seen into um consumer staples into oddly enough software. Software is is

[14:02] Microsoft, but we've been talking about this for a while. I'm curious to know if this is going to hold or was this just a July thing or was this just a prefed thing because we've seen the big rotation happen earlier this week and

[14:14] watching for right away on the open again. on here right now. And what I mean by that is you could take the angle of how

[14:26] middle of the year, which is to say that the winners usually get sold down in July as there's rotation and then the market resumes its rally sometime September, October. Uh you could take the view that with a 10% decline perhaps

[14:39] more like one of those other five years. Or maybe it's like the dotcom bubble burst or it's a 2022 23 episode because the Fed being late and refusing to address inflation again. um or is it 21 when the Fed refused to address

[14:53] inflation and let the market run a little bit longer? So, I've seen all of hours from folks at various hedge funds, from various banks, the research notes that I get in my inbox over the course of the day. And that is actually to me

[15:05] the most fascinating part of all this. So, when is there when is there a lot of opportunity in the market? Um when either everyone agrees or no one agrees, right? When you have like 75% of people on one side, eh, boring. you get

[15:18] you know capitulation. We just saw that in semiconductors. We get a lot of price where people are mixed opinions because you can misinterpret something very easily along the way here. Um so is this more to come? I mean I need to see more

[15:34] evidence right now to get bowled up again on stocks. Uh picking and choosing some of the names in more defensive sectors has worked and I think that's how I'm going to still have to operate. uh Proctor Gamble, Kimberly Clark, the

[15:46] fun stuff, Coca-Cola, Johnson and Johnson, you know, the fan favorites. Uh things? But this is this is a very difficult environment still. Um software having a nice bounce. Microsoft really perhaps showing that you can monetize

[16:00] AI. Uh now though, for what it's worth, is off 4% pre-market. So, so much for that software bounce continuing. Yes, as Chris is talking, let's put that uh 20 stocks hit new highs graphic up cuz I mean again it tells the story. Look

[16:15] who's at the top. Look at the names. It ain't you know it ain't Marll. It ain't Qualcomm. It ain't SanDisk. It ain't Micron. These are the names. Which means if you're tra if you're trading the market cap weighted indexes

[16:32] then if you're seeing none of the mag sevens up here >> you know something to consider more chop >> insurance real estate u the raw stores is uh what the hell is that? I mean that's um retail. Yeah retail

[16:45] >> retail. >> Um yeah I mean it's Garmin. I I didn't even know that stock still traded. I mean a lot of insurance stocks. Um you guest that brought that up on the show a couple weeks back. I still ain't trading

[16:58] [laughter] But I'm just saying you guys did bring it up. >> BSG. Like, wow. >> I specifically remember talking with Ratigan and Ilia. Um, what was it [clears throat] last January after the

[17:11] >> And it's like, how come the insurance companies aren't down more? It's like >> Yeah. >> Uh, conceptually think about this, If what's going on with these companies in California and Florida, these are

[17:27] companies are ruthless ma mathematicians. They don't take their they say like, "We are not going to ensure your homes in these areas any longer because of the risk to our balance sheet." They're not doing that

[17:41] because they're just being jerks. They don't like the governor of each state because they can't make money on you, right? There's just too much risk in ensuring a new home in Florida or California. The other side of this is if

[17:54] all these homes burn down to such a degree because of the risk now of some of these fires and flooding, then the government has to step in and provide community support. The scale of which is just it's too great. So, uh, KIE has

[18:07] just been in down markets, it's holding steady, and up markets it's grinding up. Um, it's an insurance ETF that I certainly don't own enough in my that given how it's performed. But that is always the case when things go up and

[18:21] when it's going down. [laughter] >> That's that sounds more like it. You >> That's where we're at. I mean, yeah, it's been uh it's been crazy with the insurance companies and and really the MAG 7 product here, MAGS. You can see

[18:38] just how uh off the highs we are with these products. And that that speaks to the equal weighted RSP hitting new highs and really diverging from that. But now you're going to have Meta pulling down against Microsoft's gains today uh in

[18:53] against Microsoft's gains today uh in the Mag 7s, too. So, it's uh it's still the Mag 7s, too. So, it's uh it's still a tug and pull, but I think Apple and Amazon after the close today will give us a lot more light because that those

[19:05] two paired with Microsoft and Meta's information like we'll have the full picture after after today's afternoon. So, what does Meta say in the next three jump at some point? >> Well, they got to stop going to court

[19:18] first [laughter] of all and uh >> stop firing people. Sephence was a huge for them. >> Yeah. [sighs] I've I don't >> know what's coming.

[19:32] something and then the stock is going to start to, you know, bounce again, right? >> we've seen this so many times in a lot of these down 10% at one point. Yeah. >> So, it caught 10% and I think it's like

[19:46] >> So, it caught 10% and I think it's like a 3% waiting in the uh NASDAQ. So, like would the NASDAQ be right now? Maybe closer to 1.9% higher >> Mhm. >> I mean, so that that also goes to show

[19:59] the fact that Meta being one of the 10 largest components of the NASDAQ um down 10% and the index is still up 1.6% premarket or so.

[20:15] candles that we saw earlier this week in some of these big tech uh ETFs, ETPs, some of these big tech uh ETFs, ETPs, the SK Highix Irish 3x levered ETP being down 96% yesterday. Maybe those are all signs of wash out. Um certainly

[20:28] >> I mean yeah, >> it wouldn't hurt. it wouldn't hurt, but fact that you're getting a much stronger tape today in the face of a 10% decline in one of the largest components in the NASDAQ.

[20:42] And maybe we got a sentiment check, too. You guys saw that Leopold, the guy who runs that big AI uh Sulp SP hedge fund, he apparently got margin called >> Really? >> Which I think his fund from inception is

[20:57] >> Which I think his fund from inception is still up like 2,200%. Catrini post about this. If if you were invested on day one with like a hund00 million uh and the fund gave back 96% of its

[21:10] returns up until yesterday, you'd still have turned a $230 million profit on an investment that's been going on for just like less than two years. So that's a pretty good rate of return still. And so a lot of these folks who are, you know,

[21:23] getting blown out because of the AI story, they've still made a handsome going to be able and willing to step in and provide more capital if that's required to keep the party going. So there's just some sentiment signs, big

[21:35] the market. >> Uh maybe that was Leopold on Monday at the big SMH volume. >> We'll never know. Well, I mean, our uh taking off positions over the last like maybe week, right? Like at least

[21:51] this week. Um rolling them out, being annoyed that he did it, but he's, you know, being prudent. And I think to your point about uh you know, possible I don't know how many sellers are left, big sellers are left honestly in this

[22:05] know, kind of take some stuff off and see and re-evaluate here. I mean, it if you come out and you say something about, you know, you're spending too much money, your your stock is going to get hammered and is what it is. And uh

[22:19] but we we've we've been hearing about, you know, the stuff that's going on in market. And it does feel like we're starting to hear like these things are know, we heard recently they're trying to stimulate the market over there. And

[22:31] so there's things are starting to calm down. I think we'll see. I mean, uh it end. Can we get that uh 2026 year-to- date total returns up, that graphic? Um, so again, this is, you know, this is also telling seeing just what's been the

[22:46] popular stuff and what's been moving and what's been down and most of it has been the the MAG7s and the tech more recently for sure. having a pretty good uh day here today. Uh, EWI is up nearly 4% in the

[22:59] NASDAQ chart, by the way, if you were to pull up triple Q's versus EWI in like a minute or a 5minute time frame. U Goldman Sachs put out a report yesterday. the [clears throat] uh the margin calls that have been triggered in

[23:12] margin calls that have been triggered in South Korea. Three, excuse me, um 1.2 million leverage retail trading accounts in South Korea triggered margin calls as of July 13th with an estimated 320K to 360k

[23:25] accounts fully liquidated. So that's 3.4% of the entire adult population in South Korea received margin calls. Uh they now believe the number of fully liquidated accounts has moved above 500,000 by the end of the month. So this

[23:39] is a lot of leverage that's being cleared out of the system, right? And I noting about this decline here. A lot of the fundamental underlying business model has not changed. Yes, there's Chinese competition like ASML, for

[23:52] example. Earlier this week, they China announced that they're going to do a DUV not the EUV lithography that you need for the high bandwidth memory chips. Um SK Heinix's revenue and their earnings earlier this week. All the American

[24:06] saying, "Ah, yeah, the party's over, but all the folks who work on the ground are HBM sales haven't started. The so what are you so worried about?" I don't know. We've seen a lot of leverage

[24:19] this in it almost feels like a little bit of a déja vu from 2 years ago. The yen carry trade blows up. NASDAQ is down 15% from the mid July high to the first week of August low. And then the market just grinds higher again and bounces

[24:33] back. Maybe we clear out the leverage. But throw away seasonality. Focus on Apple. [laughter] Focus on Amazon. >> July is done. >> Let's just hope we don't finish down by

[24:47] >> I mean, ideally, we finish exactly at 2788 for NASDAQ, the X specifically, and then we finish at uh 7,400 in S&P. and Ramal

[24:59] and I will have some brand new cars for our capital. We have we honestly though we have these butterflies uh that are wrapped around the uh 20 278

[25:12] >> 28K. >> Yes. Yes. Sorry. 278 and the downside 28k in the middle. This is like a 19k max profit with one day to go and we're right there. And then SPX is uh 7,400 for that butterfly.

[25:28] >> So these these were our downside hedges to kind of combat what we're seeing right now. They just happen to be literally right where we need them with one day to go. So I don't know. I got to see what this is is marking for today

[25:41] like right in the middle of that that spread. spread. >> Mhm. We'll take it. Yeah. It's uh what a crazy day. I don't I don't I don't see if we top the yesterday, right? Like

[25:54] [laughter] that's not where we're going to get today. Obviously, we have the same intraday whip. >> Yeah, but we don't have the intraday >> Let's just let's watch the open here. Didn't we start this week on Monday

[26:08] where we bounced because oil was down, NASDAQ was up like 1.4% and then 9:30, you could look at the candles. 9:30 hits and boom, market just gives it all up. So, let's see what happens in 35 minutes time. If we can hold on to this bounce

[26:23] trading today, probably going to be a good omen. Um, I know we haven't really talked about oil much here. Oil is in a little bit uh escalate to deescalate news perhaps. Saudi Arabia is now public with the fact that they are

[26:37] reciprocating attacks on Iran, which is something up until now uh they have not acknowledged formally or publicly. So, the war widens, more Gulf countries are getting pulled in. Does Iran want that? Uh, you know, if they keep needling now,

[26:51] you're going to have more than just the US Air Force giving you guff. So, oil off today, we'll keep an eye on it. No tankers are moving through the straits still, which is kind of feels like a I keep using the analogy beach ball

[27:03] pushing oil down, but if the oil, the physical oil does not move, the oil market itself, the paper market's going to react. So, just be mindful. It's a fun time to trade oil. I'm directionally neutral here.

[27:18] >> lots of in a range. >> Yep. We've got uh an iron condor that's like literally right in the middle of that range there. Uh but implied volatility is still not allowing us to get the implied volatility increase is

[27:30] not allowing us to get that 50% profit. We're pretty close though. And then MCL 80 strike straddle out in the V contract. That's coming in nicely uh with the whippiness, but kind of similar. just been rolling up and uh

[27:44] offsetting some of that delta exposure as we get closer to back end of the curve in these later dated cycles. But yeah, what a crazy day. Chris, a little bit later and we'll see if this market can hold it.

[27:59] 11 Eastern 10 central. Send in your questions, research at tastylive.com so Liz and I can answer them. >> Beautiful. Cool. Beautiful. Uh yeah, E- Min is up 47, NASDAQ up 460, Bitcoin is up 1,400, which you love to see. But

[28:15] here. Uh we'll be back on the other side of it. Join us on the YouTube channel if trade ideas for Amazon and Apple after the close today. We'll see you on the other side of this break. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[30:53] >> [bell] [music] the markets are catching a bid. E- Mini's up 51, NASDAQ up 486. Seems like a green day, unless your name is Meta. That is down 10% pre-market. Uh,

[31:08] Microsoft continuing to rip higher, but we got Gus in the house for some stocks Gus? >> Doing good. Always good. Yeah, we got a two of the big four went off yesterday. Obviously, very different results

[31:22] So, I got mixed feelings. You know, it's it's it's a mixed bag, but uh yeah, excited excited to get into things. >> Um yeah, I mean, first first thing for today, I I would be remissed if we did not just at least touch on Meta and

[31:35] times already, so we'll keep things brief, but uh Microsoft moving up, Meta moving down. Is the TLDDR in play here? Azure and Copilot growth good for Microsoft? Meta spending too much money. As I said yesterday, it's not cool to

[31:49] spend money on AI anymore. That's that's so March of you. Okay, that's it's we're in July now and we don't spend money on AI and hurt our free cash flow. Uh so spending and it seems like that's only going to increase. They did just uh

[32:04] earlier this week sign a deal with Black Rockck to do a 14 billion data center in El Paso, Texas. So Meta kind of just saying screw it. We're just going to now. Hope that this turns into profits in the future at some I hope that this

[32:17] turns into profits at some point in the hard to quantify future through means that are unclear at this time. >> Yeah, that sounds good. [laughter] >> Well, that's it, right? Like so I was saying earlier, what do they say at what

[32:32] point that changes this whole thing? And honestly, I mean, they're going to they're not going to change. All these companies are probably going to keep spending. Does does uh Micro Strategy stop buying Bitcoin? Well, actually,

[32:44] they? But but I mean, that's the thing like are they but they're still kind of keep doing that. Uh these other spending. Hasn't it's doesn't seem like they're going to change.

[32:56] are just becoming less and less clear. You know, if if Apple said, "Oh, we're dollars to uh develop the the newest greatest smartphone and we're going to the market would react positively to that because there's a clear path to

[33:09] more esoteric. It's all harder to quantify exactly how this turns back the market starting to respond negatively to that >> Uh, second story we have for today is about Rolls-Royce. Uh, let me tell you,

[33:23] I I don't know if I'm if I've just been sleeping, but Rolls-Royce not the Traditionally being regarded as aerospace company these days, uh, but they had a great earnings report. You can see the numbers on screen here. and

[33:36] raised guidance on uh increased demand for their nuclear power generators. Another thing I wasn't super aware that Rolls-Royce was doing. Uh here's a good picture of one here. Um but yeah, they are benefiting on two sides of the

[33:48] equation here. Data centers want their nuclear power generators because data pull from electric grids. So they want any any power that is not coming from a grid is welcome by data centers. On the other side, they're getting a lot of

[34:01] demand from increased defense spending around the world. militaries and and power generators for defense applications. So they're getting a lot of inflows from uh the UK and other European countries looking to buy these

[34:15] for defense purposes. So well positioned uh spending obviously increasing worldwide in both of those sectors right now. A good place for Rolls-Royce to be. And as a result, yeah, we see the the the beat and raise situation come

[34:27] made cool cars. I don't know. I don't know how how this all happened under my nose here. It's not a stock that I keep up with very much. Ferrari reported making spaceships now? Am I am I am I missing out on the fact that these

[34:40] luxury car brands are are rebranding [laughter] into these other things? Uh just jumped off the page at me. I said Rolls-Royce hyperscaler demand for nuclear power. That's not what you think about Rolls-Royce as they've they've

[34:53] what, these power distributors, these these power I don't know, sellers are are are in one of the best places as this AI data center demand increases. Cuz once you sell that nuclear reactor, you get the millions and millions of

[35:06] dollars for it and it doesn't matter if the bubble ever pops. You you have no >> Yeah. Some overhead. >> What a story. What a story. And yeah, I mean, a lot of these companies are just seeing the the green on the screen.

[35:19] trying to get involved. Uh it reminds me of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters when blockchain." And the market was like, >> "No, you're not. [laughter] You're going you're going to zero." But uh yeah, a lot of these companies will the more

[35:34] spending the more the spending increases, the more the companies are and take some of this this spending because it's just astronomical. nuclear power makes more sense to me than Allirds shifting into GPU as a

[35:49] this for sure. >> There there's just no way that they I'm sorry. [laughter] >> Yeah, I I think it's I I think it's uh the weird part. I do remember going down I've definitely gone down like a rabbit

[36:02] I've definitely gone down like a rabbit hole on information one time um with uh with uh Wikipedia and I remember seeing like in the ' 60s I think they were like aeros they had some aerospace stuff like attached to Rolls-Royce and I was like

[36:14] they only did cars so yeah it's weird. >> Yeah, I'm sure this is me missing the the news that Rolls-Royce is doing nuclear power to anybody here. of people know that that that was part of their business. It's just funny that

[36:27] >> It's a core part of their business. Nowhere in any of the articles about Rolls-Royce today will you see anyone say the word vehicle. There is there is nothing about the vehicles. >> Yeah. Here we go. Rolls-Royce power

[36:40] plant. This is one of their one of their mockups. I did see a number of these >> That'll attract some aliens if anything's going slug. Yeah, no kidding. >> Yeah. >> Be like, "Oh, this must be the human

[36:53] I would go there. >> Yeah, I'd check it out. >> New Zealand, maybe. >> Would you You'd feel a little weird >> Yeah. >> I'm not getting I mean

[37:05] building? This is This is a dangerous location. We got [laughter] >> Typhoon. >> They didn't think it all through. >> They do everything. >> It looks badass. [laughter]

[37:18] make tractors, I guess. There's all these luxury car brands. They they do their different things. No interesting you're in Rolls-Royce investor, congratulations to you. Uh third topic

[37:32] to Young Brands, which I alluded to yesterday. There was concerns that they would have a a poor earnings report following this uh cycllosporasis outbreak from Taco Bell lettuce. Uh however, that did not come to fruition.

[37:46] The the guy went up there and basically just mogged everybody. He said, "Yeah, taco Taco Bell sales got hurt recently, but look, same store sales are up 7% growth across pretty much all of our revenue segments." And the market

[37:59] responded positively. Young Brands set to set to open up today. Uh perhaps the the big rundown on account of uh the the cyclists thing, just priced that in a have that much impact in the bottom line. And I'll tell you why I think it

[38:13] line is because when I was searching for B-roll for today, it made me really want Taco Bell. So, I just [laughter] I just don't care. I'm not scared. I guess the This is actually all just marketing. No such thing as bad publicity. Uh so,

[38:27] yeah, good good report for Yum Brands. Uh same store sales up across most of their segments. Also learned of the existence of Habitburg as it's 1% of their of their current revenue. I don't know when they got it,

[38:40] we'll start to see Habitburgers popping up uh here and there. >> Is this in California or something? It seems like a California thing. Yep. >> There you go. >> Frankie, you ever been to a habit

[38:52] >> Curious. [laughter] >> Let us know, man. I know, right? Well, >> Um, yeah. I mean, these >> probably know somebody that owns like >> Probably does. >> I mean, these these things happen every

[39:04] single year where you have some kind of crazy event, the market just rips it kidding. It's gonna be fine." This just happened with CME and SIBO. See me and Sibo just tanked and now they're up, you know, 40 points from the low. SIBO, same

[39:19] 200, now they're ripping higher. So, it's just like these things happen and a blip on the radar, it creates a really interesting opportunity to the upside. today. >> Why not? I'm go a little further out.

[39:34] my first October position. >> I mean, this is going to open down here at the low October position. This will be at the annual lows when we open here. >> I'm long off the last time we were at the annual lows. [laughter] Don't do it.

[39:48] the annual lows. [laughter] Don't do it. Take the bait. It goes back to them. think it had to be an overreaction that we saw in Yum as well. It's like Taco Bell is one of four restaurant chains that they own. And how much do we really

[40:02] sales? Like what what were people thinking in their minds? 10% 20%? Like does do Taco Bell sales take a 20% hit don't think they do. Um so when you're talking about a you know 10 15% hit

[40:17] maybe which we actually found out it's up 7% quarter over quarter to just one be that much when it actually all shakes out. Certainly doesn't doesn't justify >> So is that officially it? Was it officially just Taco Bell and that's it?

[40:30] reporting at this time. I don't believe the actual like FDA has called anyone guilty yet, but they've given cryptic language that indicates that it was it was Taco Bell um Taco Bell lettuce specifically or lettuce distributor,

[40:43] people that still went to Taco Bell after they knew the news and they took I need that cheap [laughter] right now. you could still go to Taco Bell. You'd have to really gamble to get lettuce.

[40:56] You'd have to you'd have to love Taco Bell lettuce specifically so much that you're like, I'm doing this. Sweet. We We I need the beefy five layer right now >> that little crunch. With that extra crunch that could turn into real real

[41:09] crunch other ways, people. >> That's true. That's actually true. >> Lettuce is a scam. It's Lettuce is a scam being pushed by big rabbit. came out with that one thing where it was like the with the soft shell on the

[41:22] then the hard shell on the inside like that. I don't even remember what they >> Yeah, those are those are still [clears throat] around. They're uh Yeah. >> There it is. >> Yeah.

[41:34] >> there's there's some lovely Taco Bell iceberg. [laughter] >> I think they're in they're in the clear now. I've actually had a lot of lettuce when I look at lettuce, I'm like, is this the bad stuff or

[41:46] >> Is it going to be okay? >> I mean, yeah, they just I think that's a good sign. >> I think so. Yeah. >> No, I got I got nothing else on the docket. I mean few few other earnings

[42:00] reports going off obviously uh Starbucks up uh Carvana falling hard Chipotle up. >> uh Fordinet flying >> besides Ben and Microsoft. I really [laughter] Starbucks. Qualcomm. Uh

[42:14] >> yeah, Qualcomm's down. I did see that. >> Um oh, BMY, Sigma, boring, boring. Microsoft, I mean uh Mastercard. >> Oh yeah, and and Baxter International, bought it after seeing suspicious Congress purchasing smashed their

[42:29] earnings report set to open up 14% today. uh reported EPS at 56 cents, over. >> Mastercard's actually up big. They're up they're >> they're opening print is above this

[42:44] little bit. [laughter] >> They did do both of them used to do a lot of commercials in like the '9s and commercial anymore. I guess they don't have to. Honestly, the point's gotten

[42:56] across. Everybody uses them. But >> yeah, last last thought on Chipotle. Uh actually related to Costco. They have a bag of pre-made chicken that you can buy. It's like $10 and it tastes exactly like the Chipotle chicken.

[43:10] was like, "Why did I get six bags of already cooked. >> Absolutely nuts. >> Yeah. So, go out there and buy your Chipotle chicken at Costco.

[43:23] >> Yeah. >> Little uh cross action cross. >> See you a little bit later. >> Of course. Thanks for having me. >> Of course. Thanks for having me. >> Absolutely. Uh E- Minis up 55, NASDAQ up

[43:37] Crazy day ahead, but I think it'll probably be a little less crazy than We got Amazon and Apple after the close today. That will bring some fireworks. second break. We'll see you on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[45:30] out. But uh Jamal, it's been a crazy morning so far. Markets are up. Seems like everything's going to be fine except for Meta being down. Uh but we today. We got Liz Deerk on the line. And Liz, I haven't placed any SPX trades. I

[45:46] Have you? I >> I did this morning, but I actually think first. I'm getting long Costco, Mike, on your tip about chicken because if you weeks. >> Really? You know what I'm talking about.

[46:01] >> I know exactly what you're talking about. Chipotle chicken. It's packaged. out of style. You just warm it up. It's the same thing. Way cheaper. So, Costco is down. It's going to open up 960. I'm getting long Costco in honor

[46:15] sweeping the nation cuz when I go there [laughter] there's lots of it's I'm getting long Costco at these levels >> 100%. I feel like it's uh it's a done deal. I mean it's one of those stocks

[46:28] where they're going to chop around for sure but this there's no way that this sure but this there's no way that this is you know the high 1100. So that's it. >> Hey our our producers are amazing. This is exactly

[46:41] what 100 calories. Well, it's per serving. handful? >> I Yeah, I guess. Wow. What does it say? >> Three ounces a handful. Thanks, man. >> So, the bag is big, though. It's a big

[46:54] justice. It's It's a lot. >> Yeah. Flame seared. >> Char grilled. How are you flame seared and char grilled at the same time? >> They can do both. >> It looks good. I'm going to definitely

[47:08] run. >> Oh, you got to go. You got to get it. And there's an if you like Indian food, there's this Indian food. Uh I need to figure it out. But it's they have butter chicken and they have chicken masala in

[47:22] >> For real. >> It's legit. >> You know what I'm talking about. I I exclusively shop at Costco. So yes, >> where do they get these wonderful toys? >> I do want to address one thing uh from

[47:35] the chat that I glanced at. I don't always look at it, but Ajet Tasty Crew "Does the crew still remember me?" We love a G. So, [laughter] yeah, we can >> Yeah, >> we remember all the OG's.

[47:47] >> Remember all for sure. >> All the wild day yesterday, right? >> Oh, yesterday was bonkers, but it was fun. I know it sounds crazy and I sound like a lunatic, but it was fun to watch. We got a we got the implied volatility

[48:01] back that we were looking for. Um the market was basically reacted, you know, like like a teenager in the fact that we were up at some point. We the market rallied all the way back to green and then fell out of bed.

[48:16] >> Yeah. I mean, yeah. Can we get that Fed day whipssaw uh graphic up again? Yeah, wild. >> So, we watched as the as the Fed came what the Fed did and it went all the way up to green and then as soon as we hit

[48:30] that high it just went straight down. I mean it's not it's a I loved what you were saying today Jamal. It's confusing. It's kind of confusing but everybody

[48:42] happen I never think I can guess what the market's going to do in any situation. So and the market didn't know what it was going to do clearly. >> Yeah. I mean um that's why we just trade it. That's why I um you know, one of the

[48:57] one of the best things I stopped doing about two years ago, about a year and a half ago, almost two, was reading a whole lot of news. Like, >> I'm serious. [clears throat] I um I just watch the price action. I don't read as

[49:11] watch the price action. I don't read as much news and figure I know what like in and what the market reaction is going to be. I just trade what we see day in and day out. I had a strong feeling we were going to have a big down day yesterday.

[49:25] bear for a day out. I was just like just in case we're down and if I'm wrong, I'm this case collected a dollar, I think it was at the time, maybe 50 cents on that one. Um, and I was willing to risk 900 bucks against the rest of the portfolio,

[49:40] which I knew I would make double that at least. Um, and uh, you know, we just had coming. We like we've been we've been hearing for the last two weeks about Korea. Obviously the chips names are the ones that run our market right now and

[49:55] just knew that at some point there was going to be some type of capitulation. Um and there kind of has been. So we'll see what kind of bounce we get from >> Yeah. Yeah. We will I'm on the edge of my seat to see and I'm glad I'm on with

[50:08] NASDAQ butterfly is going to open today. And I know it's for tomorrow though, >> It is for tomorrow. Yeah. But >> what are you guys going to do with all >> I don't know. Shh. >> It'll hear you. Say anything.

[50:21] [laughter] But I mean, it's going to it is going to open right right in the middle of this range. It'll be it'll be within the butterfly. It's This is going to like It's funny cuz I'm just seeing this bad mark here uh from the close,

[50:33] but it's going to be probably a $2,000 winner on the open. I would imagine. whole another day. >> Oh my god. [laughter] >> I'm not a Norwegian. I'm a royal.

[50:49] though. I think of you when I think of cruise lines. This is a crisis. What are we going to do? >> I'm a Disney and a royal. Don't >> Oh my god. Did they say something bad? Do they have parasis?

[51:03] >> Nice. >> Alaskan cruise. >> My son is taking a cruise. >> Yeah, exactly. Yes. Good for you. Of >> he's finally branching out. I'm happy for him.

[51:16] different earnings that came out um in the last 24 hours. Obviously, we've been mostly focused on on Microsoft and Meta, but um you mentioned MA Mastercard a >> but um yeah, this is one of those few days where I'm I'm I might be active on

[51:30] the open. Probably active in in Meta. Get a position right away. I got to because I think it's going to take some time for this story to settle down. >> Veretta. Yeah. No, I agree. I'm gonna get long meta, but I I I don't disagree

[51:46] time with it with there. So, can I ask you guys a question? There's um and I I think every trader who gets their assumptions, however you get them, I'm 100% on, you know, just find out your assumption, which direction you're

[51:59] going, then put an overly a good a good trade on top of it. Do you guys ever um do after earnings? So, there was one of the one of the traders in the market watch books, he had no positions. He was one of the he was one of the greatest

[52:11] doing this. He had no positions but he would wait until after earnings. So if you see a big move, you know, think um Microsoft or ARM and he would the morning after it opens follow the move up for one day and then close it. And he

[52:24] made a a great living out of doing this because saying the momentum of a big up then getting out. Do you guys ever look like that? That the momentum is going to go in one direction or the other given the move. Do you look in the reverse? I

[52:38] used to do that a lot. Yeah, I caught a nice Amazon move one time when I was off of that. >> Well, especially especially upside momentum I think is a psychological difference between I mean downside too.

[52:51] Uh but I feel like the upside especially in Microsoft like everyone has been beating down Microsoft and now you see Microsoft just gap higher after uh the earnings announcement. I I would be shocked if they gave up these gains. I I

[53:05] Meta's weakness, you could see this continue through the day. So, yeah, I >> I think it depends on the earning cycle too. Like in some earning cycles, you will see the pattern, especially early in the cycle, right? If you see names

[53:19] they just raise and they keep moving up throughout the day, then yeah, it's and see how much this works. in this cycle so far outside of Microsoft the

[53:31] trend has been report and down for the most part. >> like for tech, sorry, not everything. >> You're seeing uh Amazon up 10 points pre-market, too. So, this is kind of a a sympathy move most likely with uh

[53:43] Microsoft, but >> uh we'll see. good therapists for me because you make me realize some things. I do think I'm the up it's an upside move and then with Jamal to the downside I wanted to catch

[53:58] the falling knife in meta. It's it is almost it's almost a mental game, right? So I wanted to be with the people that are moving higher and I want to catch a the way down. So it that that is a little bit of a mental game.

[54:10] >> Yeah. Why is this up $10 Amazon? Is it just because of the good cloud news out >> Probably. >> I mean they're not going to say anything >> No, they can't. They make too much

[54:22] >> I just bought some yesterday. >> Yeah, [laughter] >> But this is >> Go ahead. because I don't get I have the chat up a lot of times. I don't Somebody is asking

[54:35] in the chat what I did with my short puts that I'm acquiring in SpaceX and SpaceX I mean honestly so you can't win everything, right? So SpaceX SpaceX has been going down and I've been moving them out and down. So that's what you

[54:48] volatility. So, I started with weekly put saying that I wanted to acquire them and I I have a couple I have a couple in different laded positions. So, um and I They're not looking good. I will tell you that. But my move is out and down.

[55:01] just use the 120s. So, you just go to the 120s cuz it's pretty bad, right? So, it's so far down, I'll go pretty far out. I'll look at the 22 days, see how much farther out and down I can go and and then I'll address. So, what what was

[55:15] that? Uh $15. Yeah. So, I could take it from the 120 to the 118. I want to make value. If I don't have extrinsic value in that, I might even push it farther address that cuz the chat was asking what I've been doing with my SpaceX

[55:30] puts. It's not they're not ideal, but I'm out and down. That's that's what I've been doing with them. >> Yeah, that is uh that is the maneuver. And uh I think with these sorts of trades, when you take on intrinsic

[55:42] money. But if you if you're moving it out and down like right when it goes at the money, and sometimes you can't help it because there's a gap. But if you're moving extrinsic value for a different source of exttrinsic value in a further

[55:55] it way further down. >> Uh so if you're if you're making this you could do the same thing to the upside. So if you eventually take these shares, you can sell a call in the near-term cycle. And if you get hit on

[56:08] the upside, you can buy back the call, move it out and up. So, uh there's plenty of of malleability with these options. And that's that's the beauty of manipulate your intrinsic value risk or where you start to take on intrinsic

[56:21] value risk with a move like this. >> And so, what's great about is it has volatility there. So, I've been the out and down. And to Mike's point, I basically have synthetic covered calls, right? So when my puts become in the

[56:33] synthetically as if I own the stock and I short that the same call against it address that. >> Yeah, absolutely. And yeah, you could even like if you had the 128 day, you can move it down to the 115 and the

[56:47] 50-day and still pick up $300. So right, >> uh high IV gives you a lot more sure. >> But SpaceX is up three bucks pre-market and they have earnings August 4th. That's going to be interesting. Yeah,

[57:01] >> I'm going to need a little bit more on SpaceX, but once again, I've uh I trade acquiring shares, but once I get to my, you know, limit or what's it called? Like what was it on the floor? Jamal position limit. Once I get to my

[57:14] >> when I get to my personal position limit, then I stop. So, I've got what I've got and I keep rolling until I'm right. >> I like it. Um, so yeah, speaking of Meta and like SpaceX, for me, I had this just

[57:27] long-term Super Bowl. Sold the 125 put to buy the 300 strike call. Uh, and I'm glad I sold the put to buy the call cuz this call would be down two grand right now. Uh, I'm taking some heat on the put, don't get me wrong, but, uh,

[57:40] anywhere above 125, this is a net a net winner. Uh, but Meta, I think that's probably where I'll go is like we can go to October or September into this high price product, you could still do like a Super Bowl. If you go to October,

[57:55] uh, for example, you could sell like a 500 490 put spread, take a take $200 in credit and then utilize that to create some kind of asymmetry to the upside. some kind of asymmetry to the upside. Uh, you could do like a 720 730 call

[58:10] spread and give yourself this asymmetric risk profile where you still pick up a credit in the middle, but you really gain value on the upside move. So, just an idea. wide. That's That's a very wide Super Bowl.

[58:23] >> Yeah. >> Um as we got a couple of seconds here, just Can we pull up that graphic again? Average stock versus S&P 500. Uh it's a pretty good one showing again the um the uh equal weight is up 13% year to date.

[58:39] really unpack it some degree. Similar charts, but the equal weight has been outperforming more recently. And uh can we pull up the 20 stocks that hit the right? >> Yeah, RSP is equal weight. And Apple's

[58:54] been one of those that hit new highs yesterday. Um, has earnings tonight, but uh, by and large it's um, you know, kind of consumer stapley type of names, a lot of insurance in here, even a real estate and SPG. I haven't seen that name in

[59:08] and SPG. I haven't seen that name in forever, but All State, AFLAC, uh, Chub, um, Principal Financial, I mean, Hig, a lot of insurance names there. Metife. Wow. Interesting. A couple of real

[59:20] >> This is a visual representation of what you have been saying because this is if this is definitely a rotation. If you would have looked at this in July, right? Like I mean earlier in July or at the high of the market, you would have

[59:33] >> Yep. Mhm. >> So with 30 seconds to go to the opening in, right, we've seen the rotation. Is the rotation still a thing? Is it still happening? Or did it change after yesterday's news?

[59:46] I think it's still uh still a real thing. I think RSP being just gapping thing. I think RSP being just gapping higher as the uh SPY product is gapping down just speaks to the Mag 7 uh especially Meta.

[1:00:00] >> They're buying them into the open. >> We'll see if it holds in second here. >> Um >> take us right to your butterfly mic. come on NDX. >> I know, right? Open. do something

[1:00:15] >> Um, >> I also wanted to address the fact, you know, it's a bad mark. >> God, Microsoft took you so long. >> Yeah, Microsoft. Okay, two grand is hopping around. This

[1:00:29] thing is going to fly around. Like these bid these marks are so insane. >> Hell yeah. >> Microsoft though, quick? I just want because you and I and Jamal, we're all experienced traders in

[1:00:42] that that it was a bad mark. So, some might look at that on the open, you know, you're not out money in that trade. It's when the markets are so wide overnight that it's it's just a bad

[1:00:54] this, I'm going to guess those markets are pretty wide. It could even be more >> Yeah. >> Yeah. It it it marked bad yesterday >> Yeah. So, if you ever see this liquid's flying around, you can see it's 27 22 18

[1:01:09] blah blah blah. uh you should if you're trying to exit, you should always exit near the uh ask like near the ask price or the bid in terms of where your your better price is on an exit. So like for me, if I were getting out of this trade,

[1:01:24] my ask is uh the natural price, which is buying it back, but I would I would want to just put this for as good of a a profit as I can and then work it down towards the middle price >> just so you're not giving up any sort of

[1:01:37] changed this this little stylization here. You see this? >> you like that. >> I had noticed that. Kind of fun. I know, >> Um >> um I just got a uh Super Bowl in Meta.

[1:01:50] >> um I just got a uh Super Bowl in Meta. Um I did the 5 sold the four 500 490 put spread to buy the 650 670. I got a $1.15 credit. >> that's pretty good. >> That's in September.

[1:02:04] >> Yeah. Okay, >> October. >> Yeah, I like that. I mean, it's it's down 60 points, but intraday, we're picking up uh a little bit of a bid here. But Microsoft, what a move in

[1:02:18] Microsoft. This thing uh so I put on this call crab trade, this really wide of these positions so that I can make money at all three of them. >> Uh and that's exactly what is happening here. So, I I got to get out of this 450

[1:02:33] here. So, I I got to get out of this 450 460 diagonal spread for sure. because uh this one was just kind of a hail mary. I just had this on and I I kept rolling this premium, but this is going to be a net winner here into this

[1:02:47] massive move. Uh >> actually had a random leftover 425 call in August. I'll take that. [laughter] >> Yeah, >> for sure. I got diagonals. I got the 450, 470, 500 di I'm sorry, not

[1:03:00] 450, 470, 500 di I'm sorry, not diagonals. 450, 470, and 500 calendars. Um, short August, long SAP. I'm doing nothing on those right now. I got a Super Bowl. That's This thing is running. Holy cow. Um, I got a Super

[1:03:14] could probably close this. >> I don't want to, though. You know what? bro. >> Been backing you for a long time. long-term calendar spread is was up is up $700 today.

[1:03:28] >> That's a That's a calendar home run. >> That's a calendar home run for sure. Uh, thing in in meta right now. Like if you want you could do some longer calendars. >> it's probably another way to play it. >> Um, so that the diagonal I just closed

[1:03:43] was the max profit point on my max loss on this uh crab trade that I have. So I wrapped around I wrapped this crab trade where my my max loss zone is at 460, but

[1:03:56] the previous diagonal I just closed has a max profit at 460. So I closed that. just because we're already past the short options here. 15 points past. So, the further this thing rallies, the uh more I'm going to lose value on this

[1:04:11] just want to get out of this thing. I'll keep the calendar on and then see if see if we can uh get up to 500. That calendar will be a huge winner. Uh and that great. So, >> and that's the difference between a

[1:04:26] actually lose if you if it goes to your if it continues going in the direction can't. >> Yep. >> Okay. I was just price improved big time on that. Like 50 cents. So 250 bucks for

[1:04:42] that crab trade. >> Uh closed the diagonal spread for a similar profit. >> Uh yeah 253 bucks here >> Uh yeah 253 bucks here >> and then yeah 500 bucks on that uh

[1:04:55] >> and then yeah 500 bucks on that uh diagonal spread. I had the 460 450 diagonal spread. I had the 460 450 uh a while back and then uh rolled that short option and then closed the whole package for $1,000. So, what a day for

[1:05:08] Microsoft. >> Yeah, how about it? Uh what's going on with Palunteer and the rest of the gang? Palunteer's down. Oracle is up. Um who else in that group? CRM. CRM's down. That works out. Remember I put those

[1:05:22] Super Bears on in CRM. >> Mhm. That should be working right about >> Yeah, we put yesterday was crazy. We put on the Super Bowl at the low, Liz, uh, for before the Fed announcement when we were down like 100 points. I was like,

[1:05:36] the rate, this market's going to rip higher, I think. And that's exactly what happened. Closed it out and then like 10 minutes after I closed out, the market fell out of bed. It was crazy. >> Aren't you so happy when you have

[1:05:50] reverses? It's It's a [clears throat] bizarre feeling. >> It's almost better than like having the >> And do you know what is crazy, too, is we're the only junkies that you can talk

[1:06:03] happened. >> Yeah. >> Um but yeah, Microsoft, all I have left is that call calendar spread. What a what a move today. That is a huge move. 60 points. Crazy.

[1:06:18] is still in effect. I mean the consumer staples are are down you know Kroger, staples are are down you know Kroger, McDonald's, STZ, Colgate Paul Malo, Proctor and Gamble. They are down today. >> Yeah. So it is a rotation into the

[1:06:32] ARMS earnings? >> Oh yeah, they did actually. That's what here. >> I think I want to sell up 10%. >> Yep. It's hard to sell a call in this thing. thing is

[1:06:48] >> I know uh Amazon and Apple are the stars of the show today. I understand that. Is earnings? >> Not I don't think so. We could check though. Uh let's look let's take a look.

[1:07:00] Let's sort by today. So we had some this morning pre-market. Uh but after the morning pre-market. Uh but after the market today we've got Amazon and Apple. >> Yeah, there's actually a couple sleeper. >> Coinbase. Micro Strategies is also one

[1:07:16] >> Mhm. >> Um, Reddit, Roblox, they're not going to get traded as much the same time. >> Yeah. [clears throat] Oh, SIBO's

[1:07:31] >> Is it? Oh, yeah. They're going to It's interesting because you know they're going to have to what they're going to say about the perpetual futures. >> Yeah, that comes out. That's the first earnings after that down move, isn't it?

[1:07:44] >> Interesting. >> Yeah. After this liquidation event. >> I think that was the biggest over that was the biggest overreaction I'd ever >> That's what we're talking about with Yum Brands, too, with the the Taco Bell

[1:07:58] look at you look at some of these charts and these these really like freak things that happen and there's opportunity there. Like Yum Brands just gapped higher. It almost erased the whole thing. They had earnings and they were

[1:08:11] problems with our Taco Bell, [laughter] but that doesn't mean our profits have >> I love Taco Bell. I hate to admit it. It's one of my I love it. [laughter] >> What's What's your go-to order? >> So, uh, when I was in college, we lived

[1:08:26] air conditioning, so my windows were always open. And the drive-thru at Bell. Would you like to try a rancho steak burrito?" And I would wake up in ever sleep. >> Subtle. Yeah. While you're sleeping,

[1:08:39] you're hearing that just subtly. >> All night long. No, I uh I used to love >> Oh, you like you're one of the pizza people. Yeah. like the the hard shell. >> There you go. Keep it classic.

[1:08:53] >> There you go. Keep it classic. >> Yeah. Yeah. Sibo. Uh SIBO. Rancherito. >> Rancherito. >> Sibo is going to be interesting. I mean, they have pretty low implied volatility. only uh only 40% back here in September,

[1:09:07] but still a 20 point implied move for uh or 13 and a half point implied move for this week's earnings announcement. So, it's not too crazy, but still I think uh the runup has been pretty pretty telling here. And if they just if they post good

[1:09:24] numbers, which they absolutely will, uh all things considered, maybe you see a continuation to the upside after this little liquidation event here. So you before before the liquidation where you can see it gapped up that was when they

[1:09:37] announced that they let off I say they let go I think 20% of their workforce >> and the stock loved it and it went rallying higher and then the perpetual built in? Did they have earnings after that gap before that gap too or was that

[1:09:51] employees? >> I think that was the last one because >> I think that was the last one because that was yeah May early May and we're I think that's it. >> Yeah.

[1:10:04] >> Yeah. >> Um but yeah, Amazon is up right now 3%. Nice gap higher. Uh slight gap higher pre- earnings after the close. But yeah, I mean NDX, we are sitting right there. And this the most beautiful part about

[1:10:18] this is when we come to the market tomorrow, if Amazon and Apple are up inside the expected move or just up in general, this is going to be right in at 28,000 tomorrow if if we're up another 300 points with a good earnings

[1:10:33] >> Mhm. Yep. Sure will. >> Um so yeah, I think the interesting thing about this butterfly is it's such a large notional butterfly at the max Like you can see this this is fully in the money, but when we put it on it was

[1:10:49] downside. So, the fact that all the time has passed and we're basically close enough, that's why it's still trading for a significant amount of value. Um, and that's going to be the case. Even if we end up at like 278 or we're sitting

[1:11:03] at, you know, right here tomorrow, it's going to continue to appreciate. Um, so while. I got to figure out what kind of trade I want to do for Amazon earnings. Not sure yet. Even though the stock is up six, I mean, it's this stock's still

[1:11:18] been weak. Got to play to the upside. Yeah, we got two. >> Yeah. Feel like you just have to. >> Yeah, right. >> when when you're looking around and saying trade what you know. I don't know

[1:11:30] if you guys have Amazon packages delivered 40 times a day, but I do. >> Yes. >> Yeah, it is. Uh I was just telling like he can't he wants to defend me from the Amazon driver every single time.

[1:11:43] >> Oh, dude. Are you kidding me? My wife is in supply chain. We've been on Amazon real. Like >> Yeah. Yeah, >> Yeah, I think uh I mean there's still plenty of premium here. Upside one day

[1:11:56] calls if you're placing an upside trade still trading for 250 bucks. Uh I'm looking at October July, but you can bring this into September for sure and get yourself a diagonal spread that's pretty cost- effective. 235 250 15 point

[1:12:13] something like a crab trade or you can do some calendar spreads. The world is your oyster. Endless. Endless. >> Um the traditional setup for these short-term calendars is usually short the one day and then long next week. So

[1:12:29] like long 8 day, short the one day. And that is uh yeah, this really cheap right now. You could buy the 8day, sell the one day for a dollar. Maybe that's the move. Just do the laddered calendar spreads. 23 or 250, 245, 255, somewhere

[1:12:45] cheap, right? That's that's probably the play. That's what I'm thinking. Yeah. your longs in a calendar? And and I know we're getting the hook, but how far >> I think in this case, it it really I mean, it doesn't really matter. You

[1:12:59] could go um I mean, you could go near-term. I the the whole thing is just like I would say if you're going um you know, tomorrow, whatever it is to tomorrow versus a week out, um no, you don't want to pay more than $2. And if

[1:13:12] you're getting your long in September, I don't think you want to pay more than like $3 or so or maybe four. I mean, that's kind of how I think about it. >> I like these short-term ones are nice cuz they're they're quick hits. Like if

[1:13:25] you get the move up to 250 tomorrow, you get all this extrinsic value and your 250 gains value. Of course, you still get hit on implied volatility crush in the 8day cycle because all of these expirations, all of these IV readings

[1:13:37] are going to drop to, let's say, 35%. Tomorrow. Uh, and that's just the way it is. Like the the increase in PI volatility is due to this binary event and that's why you have this run up in IV reading, but after the announcement,

[1:13:51] all of these IVs are going to drop to a similar level. So this 120 is going to drop to 35%. This 8day 66% is going to drop to 35%. And you'll see more of a a equivalent IV structure here. You can probably see it a little bit in

[1:14:06] Microsoft already. Yeah. So all these have have compressed a lot. Um, so for longerterm calendars, I like to say I like to collect half of the width or half of the cost on my long option. So if I'm picking up 250 bucks in the short

[1:14:20] option, if you go to August, like August calendar where you're paying five bucks for a 22day and then you're collecting 250 on the one day. And that this actually this gives you a little bit

[1:14:33] more wiggle room in terms of having reversal if Amazon sells off back to the upside or just getting out of that IV crush. You can see 49% in August is significantly less than the crush you'll receive in the 8day. So

[1:14:47] against. >> Yeah, absolutely. >> Well, Liz, appreciate your time. What a fun morning we've had so far. Uh we'll >> Likewise.

[1:15:00] >> Yeah. Uh Ein is catching a bid up 66 now. NASDAQ up 640. What a day. Let us How you're trading Amazon and Apple. We're going to take a quick break. We'll see you on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[1:17:44] the show. We got E- Minis up 70, NASDAQ up almost 700. What a rally so far. But I'm joined here with Jamal and E. E. How you doing this morning? >> Pretty good. Uh, insane rally. The sentiment just shifts at the snap of a

[1:17:58] such an aggressive sell off the last hour of market close last night. So, hanging in there. It's a good day. >> Yeah. One more day of the month. We got the 31st coming tomorrow. So, I don't know. July flew by. These summer ones

[1:18:11] you guys doing today? >> Doing good. >> thriving as Mike says on the regular. Um, >> yeah, it's um what what a wild day yesterday. We're off to another off to

[1:18:23] the races once again. >> Uh we we'll see if this holds. I I kind of I hope it does. Uh I don't think we fade all the way back down, but you knows? >> Um but I love the action right now and

[1:18:36] we're getting more tonight. We got the A's tonight. The Amazon and Apple are trade in Meta. Um, >> see if that's going to be a bounce. Went further out on this one, but uh, you know, this is the market that we're in,

[1:18:50] >> A lot of volatility. That's a pretty big gab down on Meta. Wow. They say headlines again? Yeah. >> Yeah. Capex, big big expenses, not a lot that. >> Uh, and you're seeing that thing rip

[1:19:06] higher. But yeah, Meta, crazy capex. You can see in the lower lower right end can see in the lower lower right end there uh 165 to 169 billion compared to 130 145 uh expectations. So >> insane. Uh but yeah, they're down 8%.

[1:19:22] But that I think this is like the time to step in if you're meta bull. >> What more could you want? >> Yeah. So I think what we were talking about earlier is that you can get into these put uh put spreads that to finance

[1:19:36] money. So >> something like a, you know, 500, 490 or 460, 450, whatever you want to do in terms of where you want your risk to be. Um, but I like I kind of like the 500, 490. Pick up that premium and just get

[1:19:52] more aggressive on the downside here. I mean, we haven't been below 500 all mean, we haven't been below 500 all year. The low in March was 520. So sitting at that round number 500, 490, collecting 320. And then you can use

[1:20:05] that 320 to buy a call spread up here. Uh so I actually kind of like this too. >> right >> to the upside. Like that's that's kind of where you get that asymmetry really shining here. Um

[1:20:21] see if I can get a 25cent credit. >> Will they let me do it? >> Will they let me do it? >> Yeah. I mean it's just uh it's uh it's think you know going far out kind of helps in this situation. It could be

[1:20:33] some time before they get to undo this this type of ugly move here. And um I knows? It could be a little bit more ugliness tomorrow. So I think that's why >> Yeah. >> I want to do another one actually. I

[1:20:48] think this is a really good opportunity. >> Yeah. A little bit more long delta. >> Hell yeah. >> Yeah. Volatility is up too. >> Maybe I got to move this up. 520. you're getting in this is

[1:21:01] 520. you're getting in this is >> 52510 for a dollar. Let's try that. Let's try that. I'm just going to leave it. There you go. 52510. what? >> 52510 to buy the 600 615.

[1:21:16] >> I do want to go closer into >> Yeah. 10point wide put spread to finance a 15-point wide call spread with a dollar in the middle. Uh and we can look at the analysis expiration graph. There you go. That's what we got. So this this

[1:21:31] yellow line is a theorograph. So you can see in the middle we make 100 bucks, but Yeah, >> you get a rally back to 600. This is without changing IV or time. This is a $600 winner if you just get to 600.

[1:21:45] >> Yeah, >> that's really nice. Uh so yeah, we're in >> that's really nice. Uh so yeah, we're in there. 520 52510. >> 66. >> Here you go. And then we closed all of

[1:21:59] our Microsoft positions. So Microsoft giant gap higher. Magical move here. Uh >> Beautiful move. >> Yes. Insane. 30 points wide. That was a

[1:22:11] $250 winner even though we were blew through that 430 strike. So that was just the the nature of the ball crush and the delta there. But 250 buck winner there. I still have this 500 strike calendar spread on. That's up $1,000.

[1:22:25] Uh, and then I had this 450 460 short-term calendar or diagonal spread that I'd been managing for quite some time. Uh, the 450 450 calendar that I eventually bought back the short call for 30,

[1:22:40] >> right? >> And then into a rally, resold the 460 >> to diagonalize it for two bucks. And then uh that's where I that's where I was. And then, you know, 30 days pass, you're sitting with a long 22-day short

[1:22:53] you're sitting with a long 22-day short 1 day uh earnings diagonal that's 30 60 point move to the upside and you get bailed out. So, >> Just for fun. >> Yeah. Let's see what happens.

[1:23:05] aggressive rip to the >> I want to lose money on it. Trust me. >> Yeah. So, what are you what are you looking at for uh MNQ today? volatility right now. Um going to wait for this thing to settle down a little

[1:23:18] really catching my attention is these rebounding off the lows aggressively with the overall market, which is nice feels like I'm playing Russian roulette a little bit. I'm like, man, when is

[1:23:31] to dip in some of these micron names, right? We're up we're up a pretty decent amount today on the overall position. We've seen how volatile the market has been over the just the last what 24 to 48 hours. I mean, 24 hours. So, I mean,

[1:23:44] back and forth. So, >> what do you got in Micron? Uh, I sold a uh nothing too aggressive, but it feels aggressive. Uh, I sold an out- of- money put spread. I sold the 690 puts. Uh, bought the 680s. That's why it feels a

[1:23:56] wide. I typically do $5. >> And what And what uh expiration? >> Uh, August 21st. I got a little bit of time, but 22 days left to expiration. So, we typically look to potentially manage by tomorrow. Um, but with the,

[1:24:11] you know, the volatility and the nature of these markets right now, uh, things >> I think you're good. >> I mean, yeah, look at the net change on these options is nuts. >> They they just flip on their back very

[1:24:25] >> Absolutely nuts. These options have lost half their value and these options have gained half their or gained 50% more than what they're worth. 20 100% more. That's what I'm [laughter] trying to say.

[1:24:38] >> Uh yeah, crazy day here. Uh Apple and Amazon after the close. Do you have any trading at all-time highs. Apple's really been the top dog, right, with a lot of these big these big tech names. Um, I don't know. I think Apple needs a

[1:24:53] I'd be leaning a little bit bearish, but man, it feels too obvious. It feels a little bit too obvious to lean bearish with uh the type of price action we've we going to put in another leg to the

[1:25:06] We could, you know, maybe get a reversal little bit. Maybe we start to consolidate that consolidate at the highs a little bit. But if I had to give out my h I would say neutral to bearish

[1:25:19] I'm feeling on on Apple. Maybe we express that through a trade idea as >> yeah, I don't love that it's down today into this massive [laughter] higher. We just got to make it. >> Isn't that a trip? But that's the thing.

[1:25:32] hit alltime highs, I think, in the last couple of days while some of these other names are really struggling. It is funny how this has been the anti-chip name. I diagonal. >> Like, seriously. And again, I don't

[1:25:46] >> if they go down, it's not because the it can't be because of spending. I think responsibly, but >> it's definitely the concern. I I forgot >> Drink responsibly. Responsibly. That's the new

[1:25:59] >> Wisconsinably is actually what they say. Drink Wisconsinly. That's what they say >> Do they drink a lot in Wisconsin? >> Oh, yeah. >> Wisconsin's like one of the number one Yeah. drugs really, you know, [laughter]

[1:26:11] brandy, which is hilarious to me. >> You have any I got I like I feel like I Midwest a little bit more. >> Yeah. Aka get you nice and toasty. >> Uh we got some people in YouTube chat asking, are you scalping MNQ today?

[1:26:25] I know the day kind of just got started here. So, I definitely will be. Uh we'll of the trade ideas as well. Again, I know I I got a whole list to update >> uh on that trade thing. >> I know. [laughter] I know. It's amazing.

[1:26:40] >> So, it we'll be we'll be getting some updates in there for sure. >> Sweet. Yeah. Um Amazon, I was just looking at some trade setups here. Uh long September short August. I mean, you could do a cheap crab trade. I This one

[1:26:55] could do a cheap crab trade. I This one is 20 points wide, 240, 260, 280. You could also bring in the 22day uh and bring this into the weekly cycle. Uh can you get the same premium? No. But right >> could do like a 255. So like a 15 point

[1:27:10] wide. >> 240 255 270. And that gets you a similar I actually kind of like that. Nine bucks. 15 points >> 15 points wide >> gets you a nice uh if we bring the

[1:27:22] >> gets you a nice uh if we bring the analysis up here. And what does this 240. That's why >> 450. >> Sorry. This thing 2425 270

[1:27:34] >> 441, right? Yeah. Um, this is someone really 445. >> What do I have in here? >> I'm going to go with Yeah, cuz it's 20 points wide. I'm going to go with that.

[1:27:48] >> Can't get filled. They don't feel me. >> Let's get rid of that. There you go. Uh, >> it's really 50. >> They don't feel me. >> There you go. So, 240 255 270 call crab trade. If we push this tomorrow and then

[1:28:02] crush IV down here. Let's bring this down to like 35%. >> There you go. >> I tried 450. I'm sitting there. 450. See some. >> Let's do a little $9

[1:28:16] crab trade. See if we get something in there. Yeah. Um but yeah, I think this is uh a crazy market we've got on our hands here. E-in up 82 now. NASDAQ up hands here. E-in up 82 now. NASDAQ up 760. Bitcoin up 1500. I have a working

[1:28:31] order. I put in a working order to close this butterfly for five grand. >> So, if we can hit that, that would be just absolutely nuts. Uh it's been holding this >> till tomorrow. We're right at 28,000. M

[1:28:46] the best case scenario is that we continue to rally here to where these short options that I sold to reduce the cost basis on the 282 go to zero lose value and then that 282 hold on holds on to value. So a a continuation to the

[1:29:00] upside is actually better here than a sell-off towards 278. Yeah. >> So I like it. >> Uh and then S&P similar story. We've got a butterfly there at 7,400. Like this I don't know these. It's crazy. I don't

[1:29:13] think I've ever had a one day butterfly pinned in two [clears throat] different table. It's a buzz meeting. >> Yeah. >> But e uh thanks for your time 100%. Let's let's bring in Dr. Jim. Dr. Jim,

[1:29:26] you holding them? >> WW is, it's you know, it's very difficult to pin those butterflies like it. I mean, they are slippery, man. And so, I kind of feel like, you know, you have an

[1:29:41] right? At the end of the day. >> Uh, tomorrow. Yeah. It's like catching unicorns. >> It really is, man. And so, you know, I don't know. I mean, it's tricky because butterflies are so tricky and they're so

[1:29:54] chance at greatness and you get that taste. [laughter] you get just get that a while I do like to run them down to the end but generally speaking I know and as as you guys of course know if you really want to get the big winner you've

[1:30:09] got to pin it and it's got to happen literally the final seconds and so any taking it off >> listen the bases are loaded the green monster out left is staring at me I'm swinging I'm not I'm not going down

[1:30:22] got to do it >> Dr. And I absolutely love it. I love it. us? >> So, inside the trade. All right. So, do today. So, somehow someway, I'm still shocked, but we made it through. We made

[1:30:37] it through the most important FOMC meeting of our lives. I mean, I have been studying the markets for a very long time now, and I've never seen anything like what we experienced yesterday. Again, guys, this is basic

[1:30:52] yesterday. Again, guys, this is basic stuff. Wars went navy blue tie again. Like you think the market was ready, it was not. You think you were ready, you were not. But somehow someway we are here together here on a Thursday. So we

[1:31:04] made it through Meta earnings sort of. We made it through Microsoft earnings. We made it through Chipotle earnings. We made it through uh Starbucks earnings. we've got Amazon. So, we are going to go back inside the trade and we are going

[1:31:17] to do one here today and then one later today for from theory to practice So, hop into the chat and let me know what you guys are doing for these stocks. Are you bullish? Are you bearish? I've obviously got a stone cold

[1:31:31] Steve Austin certified trade for you guys that you can fade if you want to make a little bit of money. So, okay. So, let's first let's talk about S&P for just a minute. You got the markets up 90, right? EM S&P is up 90. You got the

[1:31:43] NASDAQ, the risk-free instrument, up 818 on the day. You got the Russell, I'm running myself there. You got the Boomers up 300 and you've got the Boomers up 300 and you've got the Russell 3000 up 23. And so the markets

[1:31:56] are green, everybody's excited, everybody's happy. And so yesterday on S&P, you know, we scalped that butterfly intra show like intra show. Like I mean, there before we kind of kicked off inside the trade. I mean, it's very

[1:32:11] difficult to pin the short strike on a butterfly. We didn't do that at all yesterday, but we got a little bit of movement in our favor, a little bit of movement in our direction. And so, because of that, we were actually able

[1:32:23] to take off maybe a dollar off of that uh that S&P trade there in Trou. And so, that was kind of exciting and that was kind of fun. But then, FOMC, I mean, it was, you know, sideways, it was frontways, it was backways. It was all

[1:32:38] have actually made more money had we held it. I think it's possible that we may have been able to cash in a bigger profit, but this is one of those things answer. Like, I wish I did because if I did, I'd be in some remote tropical

[1:32:52] Like, I wouldn't tell y'all. Like, I would just keep that to myself. But I do think about, you know, should I go for big profits or should I go for, you kind of the the sure winner that's kind of right down the uh, you know, staring

[1:33:07] me in the face. I think it's tricky. I think having a mixture with a strategy like a butterfly can make a lot of sense because the butterfly is set up with the defined risk and the maximum loss known to maybe go forward a little bit. Maybe

[1:33:19] loaded scenario. Maybe it is a little bit of a staring down at the green monster scenario like Mike was alluding to. So, I think you can do that and that might be the time to do that. But, uh, but also, you know, you put on a $45

[1:33:32] butterfly like we did yesterday for SBX, which is right here in my activity tab the show yesterday. I probably should have put this up a couple seconds ago, but it's like you get a dollar in I mean, we held the trade for 4 minutes.

[1:33:45] It's kind of hard to kind of look away from that because that was uh that ended up being a really, really solid trade. And Meta, Microsoft, Chipotle, practice trades. So, I'm going to wait until from theory to practice to go over

[1:33:57] those guys again to give you a reason to watch later. And so, all right, what we're going to do here today though, so we've got Apple and we've got Amazon. And right now, it's a little bit of a mixed bag. And I see you guys, by the

[1:34:10] way, in the chat already putting in a little bit of work, some early morning crowd, we're more of an afternoon bunch. We're more of a kind of all right, we take the mornings kind of easy, kind of slow to get started, but I see you guys

[1:34:22] already in there, man. or Denu is there. Death Sneeze is there. Look at Don. Donald Chrysler is here. Weiss is here. Man, TJ Bell is here. Sam L is in the house. Man, I appreciate you guys so very much. All right, let's go ahead and

[1:34:37] follow you on Microsoft? That's really funny. Uh yeah, Microsoft was the only but again, I'll have more to say about that from theory to practice later today. So, looking at Apple and Amazon. So, Apple was struggling on the open.

[1:34:52] Yeah, this is really interesting, man. I mean, Apple, everybody's darling. At least it used to be every Oh, man. We lost it again. Oh, brutal. I got to get Autumn on this internet, Bill. And so, Ben, uh, just take us off the screen

[1:35:04] share there for a second. We lost it. Autumn's got us on that dialup. Sorry back up in a second. But, let me know like what you guys are doing in the Apple. Let me do what Let me know what you're doing with Amazon. And I mean,

[1:35:17] Like, I don't know if that's still the case. Like is that still the case? I got obviously Micron, you've got SanDisk, right? You've got uh you've got Nvidia, of course. I mean, Nvidia, I think Nvidia might be the darling now. I

[1:35:32] mean, I don't know. I mean, Apple I mean, still being a millennial, right? Being uh one of the eldest millennials to me, Apple is still kind of the tech market. Now, that kind of feels like that kind of feels like what

[1:35:46] boomers might say about IBM. Like I kind of feel like I'm I'm tapping into a bit. Now I'm only 45 and so I don't even know if I have an inner boomer. Maybe I do, maybe I don't. I don't know. But I kind of feel like, you know, being a

[1:35:59] used to do this and Apple used to do that. It kind of feels like what, you know, your local neighborhood boomer might say about like General Electric or know. But we're about to be back up here in a second. So, uh, we can take a look

[1:36:14] me know what you guys are doing. Uh, probably crop that now. I'll get on I'll get on Autumn. Don't worry about it. And that's the thing about being in Southwest Florida. All you have is

[1:36:26] Spectrum. That's the only option when it comes to internet uh providers. And so, again, you've heard it a million times before. You can't trade the market that that you have, right? Like, I can't trade the internet that I want. I have

[1:36:40] to trade the internet that I have. And so, all right, let's go ahead and uh let's take a look at we'll do some Apple and some Amazon. Okay, so again, you look at Apple and Apple down $6. That's pretty

[1:36:55] surprising. That's pretty surprising. And I just glanced at the chat and I saw Morgan Stewart uh [laughter] asking about the story of how I met my wife. I cannot believe it. It's been 10 years and I have not told that story.

[1:37:09] practice. Maybe tomorrow. You guys got to stay tuned for that. Man, you guys are the best. It's all right. So, Apple down, Amazon up. That's got me feeling, of think, you know, I'm a short-term contrarian, right? With express

[1:37:23] apologies paid to all my momentum bros and bro sets out there that might be the wrong spot. Like, you probably misclicked and you're looking for a way off-ramp. You're looking for some type of escape, right? Because I am more of a

[1:37:37] buy your breakouts and sell your breakdowns. But again, I think there's a the market. And I have all I have the ultimate respect, my utmost respect for anyone that steps into the arena with their hardearned capital and puts it to

[1:37:52] risk however they best see fit because I'm not even going to pretend that I've it because that is most certainly not the case. But being a short-term contrarian, I'm kind of thinking maybe we play

[1:38:05] even sure we're allowed to do that, but maybe we give it a shot and then maybe later today we play Apple to the upside. market. Maybe we do a little bit of a mixed bag here where we're bearish on

[1:38:18] one and bullish on the other. And uh I mean, it makes sense in my head. I mean, like on paper. But again, I mean, have you guys seen Bezos lately? He's off his peptide game, man. Like, I don't know if he's trying a new protocol. like I don't

[1:38:32] if his supplier is like on vacation or what's going on but give a look at homeboy you know he's looking a little he's looking a little scrawny uh these days and so I kind of think we play this thing to the downside and we're going to

[1:38:45] do it with obviously the tried andrue expected move butterfly because it is a Thursday going into Friday now like Mike was saying earlier with his butterflies when you get these guys right at the very end it can be really really nice

[1:38:58] because you know the butterfly can really open up like you can really kind middle of the butterfly, which is uh which is indeed really really nice. Okay, so let's go ahead. Let's go into Amazon. And I'm thinking

[1:39:13] we set this guy up to the downside. Now, let's tinker with some strikes. We'll bit and uh kind of see where the wind might blow us. But what if we just did like a 235, 222,

[1:39:29] and then a 210? Again, we're just starting. This is just the beginning of the analysis. We're not signing on the dotted line. We are very much just window shopping at this point. 235, 222 1/2, 210. Okay, we've got 12

[1:39:44] So, that's not bad, right? I mean, we're at about 5% of the stock price there. and fast rule for like the width of the butterfly relative to the stock price. 5% does feel adequate to me. It doesn't necessarily feel like it's the maximum

[1:40:00] allowable amount. Uh but it does feel like it's going to be wide enough to give us a chance, a reasonable chance at uh at managing for some type of uh some type of profit if we get a move uh lower. I do like the fact that we're

[1:40:13] only risking 281. So this is like less than 1% of the account, which is really really nice. And again, remember, I mean, typically between 1% to 3% for defined risk. But if you want to go even smaller than that, you can, right?

[1:40:26] That's obviously harder to do the less capital you have because you still need to kind of balance that with it being economically significant. Like I want to balance my defined risk strategies and my maximum loss points with something

[1:40:38] that is going to have some economic significance uh behind it. And so with that being said, you know, it is very much a a balancing act. It's almost like it's a gimme and a gotcha. It's almost like for every gimme there is a gotcha.

[1:40:51] gimmies do you want to go after? What gotas are you willing to absorb and then pathway forward through the forest once you make that decision. So 280 this mean we're still here. We got nothing

[1:41:06] left. And then I do want to see where you guys are at uh on here. And so let's go ahead. Let's see if we do um let's see. Let's see. Let's see um let's see. Let's see. Let's see if we do 235 22 2 and 1/2 210.

[1:41:21] It's not bad. What if we went a little bit wider though? So, what if I do a 15 bit wider though? So, what if I do a 15 pointer? 235 220 210 or I'm sorry, 205, not 210. Ooh. All right. So, this is not too bad either because now we're right

[1:41:36] at about 1% of the account. We got about 36 37,000 in this account. I like the fact that we've added to the width. I still like the risk return tradeoff here maximum loss point is and what our maximum profit point is. Again, remember

[1:41:52] maximum profit on a butterfly not going to be a realistic outcome because too having more runway having more distance between the two gives us more between the two gives us more opportunities to indeed uh be profitable

[1:42:05] opinion or maybe even by object objective mathematical fact in the market. I'll let you decide. So 235, 220, 205. We paid 352. I like this trade a lot. I do want to see what if we shift everything down just a little bit. What

[1:42:21] everything down just a little bit. What if I went 232 and 1/2 to 17 12? Ooh. Now this might be the winner, guys. Ladies and gentlemen, I think we have found it. If you are listening to the

[1:42:36] audio only version of the show and all you have is my sultry voice to carry you forward, I'm sorry. I'm sorry for that. But since that's all you have to work with, here is the rundown of the trade. July 31st expiration. So tomorrow, one

[1:42:52] July 31st expiration. So tomorrow, one day to go, which is also tomorrow. [laughter] 232 1/2, 217 1/2, 202, 15 points wide. filled here in a second. The maximum profit is 1180. Again, not looking to

[1:43:06] get that, but getting some multiple of of the debit that we pay. I think it's because we are kind of waking up on third base a little bit if we do get the profit is only 30%. That's what you sign

[1:43:18] high probability trade. The high probability trades are the short puts. short strangles. The high probability trades are even the short vertical north of 50%. This is not a high probability trade. This is not what uh

[1:43:31] what we're paying for. And also one other thing I want to point out. Look at that astronomically large negative theta. Don't let that spook you here. Don't let that scare you here because it doesn't really mean anything.

[1:43:43] anyway. And so that number is so high because it's showing you that okay at expiration tomorrow when the markets close tomorrow, this guy has to sell for zero exttrinsic value. So whatever exttrinsic value might be in the trade

[1:43:56] needs to go down to zero come expiration. So, that may look like, oh hard against me. And in a way, it kind of is because you're naturally voluntarily self- selecting a strategy with only one day to go, but this is not

[1:44:09] play. So, I would not let that spook you. Don't let that scare you. Uh it's only July. I mean, it's not even October yet. There's no reason to be spooked or scared uh yet. So, 305. Let's go in. Uh it looks like 310 is our

[1:44:23] new debit to pay for the ah filled the 310. Beautiful. There you go. There is a downside expected move butterfly in Amazon and then tomorrow. Amazon and then tomorrow. Uh I see you guys trolling me, man. I I

[1:44:37] I love it so much. I absolutely love it so much. And so uh later on today we'll do Apple. But let me see where you guys are at here. So uh oh, David Gallamore is in the house. What's going on, David Galmore? Tell tell Dr. Jim that I I live

[1:44:51] Philippines. I know, man. I hope you're doing okay out there. It's been a minute. Thanks. uh thanks for popping in here and uh I really hope you're doing well and I may join you, man. I may join you, right? So, when I just leave and I

[1:45:03] that's where I am. I'm on some remote tropical island somewhere and I'm just trading expecting butterflies and so that's it. And so, uh E Media is in the house. Uh man, I appreciate you guys so much. And uh but let me see, let me see,

[1:45:17] let me see where are you guys at. I've only got a couple seconds to go here. Uh let's see. Uh or or Denu says, "I wouldn't do a butterfly in a mag 7." I mean, that's fair. That's fair. I kind of like them on the MAG 7 only because

[1:45:29] so, I like butterflies on higher price stocks because you automatically kind of economic significance. Like, you can do a butterfly and I'm not sure what your rationale might be, but I just like the fact whether it's a MAG 7, whether it's

[1:45:43] not a Mac 7, the higher basis of the stock, you know, at least $200 is I don't mind paying a couple bucks for a butterfly. I don't really want to do like a 50 cent butterfly or a dollar butterfly or something like that

[1:45:55] even if I get it right, it's going to be hard to make a significant amount of run, but even getting a base hit up the middle, like even getting, you know, runner over to third with less than two outs, that's kind of hard to do with a

[1:46:08] low price butterfly. And so, uh, so yeah, so that's not necessarily my, uh, my favorite thing, but man, I see you guys in the house. Death Sneeze, TJ is here. I see you guys sneaking in at the end. my underachievers that got in at

[1:46:20] Griffin Jones. Griffin Jones is very much not an underachiever. I see DMZ. I later from from theater to practice. But that is inside the trade. We are now officially outside inside the trade and I will see you guys for from the

[1:46:35] I will see you guys for from the practice. 3% cash match on all qualifying deposits up to $3,000. [music]

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[1:49:57] the show. We got E- Minis and NASDAQ ripping higher. Dow Russell ripping higher. Some of these single name stocks, uh, Amazon's up 10 points now pre-earnings they announced after the close today. Micron's up 100 points. Uh,

[1:50:11] close today. Micron's up 100 points. Uh, Meta is down 55 points, almost exactly the same uh, point value as Microsoft is up 55 points. But Tim Knight is here with us. And uh, Tim, I got to know what you're thinking about these markets.

[1:50:25] downfall? might need this. >> I I was short, so I think it's great. Um >> I I was short, so I think it's great. Um I I did cover um I uh I had kind of a last summer and since then it completely poisoned my view of the company and uh

[1:50:40] so I've been bearish on them based on nothing more than just my feelings about nothing more than just my feelings about the place ever since. Uh it wasn't like a super clean chart setup. It was pretty good. Uh but anyway, I came into the day

[1:50:53] short, was delighted last uh evening to see the tumble and I took my profits and >> I mean, it almost seemed like you could predict this move in a way, right? I spending a lot of money to catch up with AI and I mean, that's been the t the

[1:51:08] this earning cycle, >> right? But you I mean you could use those same words for Microsoft and I I had no position in in that because on my afternoon show yesterday. Um I I basically said that you know and neither

[1:51:23] of them were chart based reasons really. I just described my my meta disposition poor thing has been beaten in the ground so much it's kind of like Oracle. It's >> So it's it's just got kind of got nowhere to go but up. So, um, yeah,

[1:51:38] Microsoft seems to have, uh, um, been saved by just good old business fundamentals as opposed to their capex, you know, spending. Yeah. It's It's

[1:51:50] funny. I, you know, I I talk about myself as a bear. I think I'm actually a salmon. I just like to go against the tide cuz I feel, you know, we're raging now than yesterday when we were like falling to pieces because I guess I I

[1:52:04] put it this way from my perspective. have a lot easier time figuring out entries as opposed to exits. And today's kind of an entry day, whereas yesterday kind of an entry day, whereas yesterday was very much an exit day. Um so yeah,

[1:52:17] um it's it's very green, not that shocking. Uh they're going to fight this every step of the way. Um and that is okay because it's it's for me it just >> Well, yeah, as you get to your charts here, I mean, you've been saying it all

[1:52:31] this segment's always been interesting because just catching your sentiment. out stuff. You've been pushing stuff further out cuz you were like, you know, bounce and I mean you kind of predicted this.

[1:52:43] >> Well, and I did I mean sometimes it's just like you look at it's like well but enough is enough. So in some case I did I did cover yesterday. In other cases this morning I was automatically covered because my stops went it was

[1:52:57] like being in a pinball gallery like ding ding ding. I got stopped out all ding ding ding. I got stopped out all all kinds of stuff. Um, and so I'm a lot all kinds of stuff. Um, and so I'm a lot lighter now, um, than I was, but I I

[1:53:09] sort of think of this metaphorically as like entering a haunted house with a giant open sack of money. And every now and then something really scary happens and you jump and a bunch of money falls out. That's what's been happening uh, I

[1:53:23] think to either bulls or bears in recent weeks just because once it seems to be going one direction clearly, then the exact opposite things happen. So, it's exact opposite things happen. So, it's just we got this V-shaped uh electroc

[1:53:36] cardiogram happening and it's it's it's tough to stick with any kind of trend. I um the the really battered sectors and we can just jump into the card charts now to sort of uh make this point. The really bashed and battered sectors are

[1:53:51] perspective, it is a thing of beauty because here's the ENQ chart. Um, and we have been uh in this beautiful gentle arc. It doesn't feel that gentle dayto

[1:54:03] day, but over a daily basis, it it seems pretty smooth. Um, slipping lower and pretty smooth. Um, slipping lower and lower and lower. And Tuesday and Wednesday, especially yesterday, uh, we fell hard. Look what's happening today.

[1:54:17] fell hard. Look what's happening today. We have undone all that damage. And for someone like me, that's great because I put on my hunting cap and go around and look for individual stock skin that are appealing on the short side because um

[1:54:29] chart person, if you just look at a quote, if you look at the headlines and you listen to the to the talking heads, um it'll be like happy days are here look at everything that's going up. You look at this though, it's just like, oh,

[1:54:44] look up bull trap in the dictionary and you see this chart. So, um I uh I did get I I lightened up slash got lightened up, but I'm looking at this and I I do

[1:54:56] want to look around for new opportunities. >> Yeah, I think it's uh it doesn't surprise any of us to see a big green bar uh after, you know, five, six straight days of red, especially in the

[1:55:08] NASDAQ where a lot of people are concentrated with their uh intentions. what happens after the close today with Apple and Amazon. Uh see if this falls right back. >> Yeah. No, it's funny cuz as huge as

[1:55:23] Apple and Amazon are, I find them to be incredibly uninteresting charts. I've got just sorry so little to say about them. Um getting back to the theme of like individual picks. Sometimes it's stuff kind of uh not as [clears throat]

[1:55:36] stuff kind of uh not as [clears throat] well known. Um like one one nice victory for me today which I've talked about a lot in recent weeks is Carvana. They had lot in recent weeks is Carvana. They had earn earnings last night. Um and

[1:55:48] definitely definitely going the right direction. Uh let me just tidy this um diamond up a little bit. So in Carvana's case um this has been having an exceptional recovery very much like it did back here back in 2021. And my

[1:56:06] speculation has been that we're basically going to uh replay this movie. Uh because frankly, not only are we the same level, but this pattern is much same level, but this pattern is much better formed than this one was. And so

[1:56:19] watching like a hawk on Meta and it fell. And then like 10 minutes later, it's like, "Oh, wait a second. What about Carvana? You've got puts in that." it's it's bounced off its lows certainly, but these are January puts.

[1:56:32] So I lightened up a little. I took profits a little, but I have every intention of holding on to the majority of those for hopefully months to come because I think that pattern is is pretty potent for a longer term move.

[1:56:45] pretty potent for a longer term move. >> Yeah. I mean, cars in a box, am I right? >> I I honestly don't know how they do it. I mean, if you know any about it, this company has got a very sketchy origin story and uh yeah, how it like collapsed

[1:57:00] and then completely recovered those losses. You got me. But from a charting perspective, it's it's a real beauty. >> Nice. Um let's see what else is cooking.

[1:57:12] Um ju just do a tip of the hat to Meta here. Um this is uh broadly since last series of lower highs. This was the lifetime high. Um, it was approaching,

[1:57:25] you know, was got like 800 or so. And then since then, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, down we go. And so, you can kind of see why I was satisfied just getting out because, first of all, it is a mess. And secondly, this kind of level is

[1:57:39] roughly as low as we've gotten over the past year and a half or so. It was good enough for me. Uh, so I just decided to just to bail on it cuz it's a pig of a pattern. But uh that was it was nice to just have a clean trade and be done with

[1:57:53] >> I know you had some run-ins with Elon. You ever had any run-ins with Zuck? >> Uh I wouldn't say runins actually. Uh this family's engagement with him has been perfectly positive. He he comported himself very nicely. So I have nothing

[1:58:07] bad to say about the man. Um uh back in the day he actually used to but those days are long gone. I think he's a lot more protected now. Um, and in fact, uh, I think that famously he's

[1:58:21] off to like the billionaires island in Florida at this point. So, no more Zuck. Florida at this point. So, no more Zuck. But no, yeah, he's he's he's got I got nothing bad to say about Mr. Zuckerberg. Um, it's just that I I felt that their

[1:58:34] AI efforts were u wrongheaded and I think in the end we'll we'll see that the only one who thought that. It's definitely the case. definitely the case. >> Um, let's see. How about Sorry. Yeah,

[1:58:48] let's just do one more and uh and Okay, here's So here's ES and this is what a battle going on here because we've been looking at that green support line. We breached it yesterday and we've unreached it today. So we've essentially

[1:59:01] undone most of the damage yesterday, you know, after Wars' commentary um uh you know got almost 1200 point wipeout in the Dow, but that seems to be control zed at this point. So we are getting a rally here but I I think the damage is

[1:59:16] done. I think the fact that we breached it um is is what counts and that in the days ahead um I I I think it's likely before before well I say before this week that we got one more day. I think by next week we will be talking about

[1:59:32] think that's a question we could be facing before next week is out. So, um, it's a nice rally and I'm going to selectively go around and look to to reenter in some positions. >> Love it. Yeah, it's been a a crazy day

[1:59:47] for sure, but yeah, the meta downside move, it's it's the story of all the stories for AI. If you're spending too much money these this day and age, uh, you're not going to have a nice stock price reaction, especially with the AI

[1:59:59] see you a little bit later. >> All right, guys. See you. >> Adios. Uh, yeah. Byebye. E- Mini is almost up 100 now, up to 90. Uh, up 90. NASDAQ's up 875. Craziness across the board. But again, we've got Apple and

[2:00:15] Amazon after the close today. We're going to see what they have to do uh in terms of what they're spending and EPS revenue, all that jazz. But we're we're placing some earnings trades uh ahead of time to the upside. We'll see if it

[2:00:29] holds in Amazon. uh Apple if it's kind of interesting because Apple's down uh right now into this massive market rally. So, we will see. But we've got break. We'll see you in a second. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[2:02:53] sponsored by SIBO, which means one thing and one thing only. We got Julia on the line. And Julia, you said this is one of the best days ever. I don't know about you're long position recovered. I thought I was being a wuss. I was

[2:03:08] announcements, through earnings. I'm like, I'm going to regret it. Did not regret it. Very happy I did that. I'm going to regret it eventually, I'm sure. Um, but so yeah, having a good day. I don't know.

[2:03:20] great. >> It's a great day. It's a fantastic day. like, oh yeah, >> La Palooa kind of day. >> It's La Palooa. You go you do it. You You dabble in that going to that?

[2:03:33] >> No. More of a ride festival. after shows. The after party, those are fun. I'm a big fan of those, the afterparty shows. Um, they all start at like 11:00. You see cool artists at like very small venues if you could get into them. So,

[2:03:46] >> But, um, I don't know. Yeah, >> they're so exclusive. >> What you got? >> You want some exclusive research content? I'm actually a big fan of this piece. I thought this was really

[2:03:59] interesting. Um, I'll just ask you guys. So like let's say that you're trading, position or whatever short premium position. Do you think the source of the loss matters when the position takes a loss? Whether it's an IV pop or a strike

[2:04:13] >> The source of the loss. Does it matter? What do you mean does it matter? style? Do you think like depending on the source of the loss, you might, you know, treat the loss differently? If you know a strangle hits a 1x loss, it's you

[2:04:26] know, call breach, sprig breach, right? So like I wanted to take a look at the what we're doing today. >> Okay. >> Personally, I ignore any losses that are out of the money losses and I'm I am

[2:04:39] the money losses. So there's your answer. Um and as it turns out for undefined risk, you know, like for neutral positions as well, I should say. Um depending on whether it's a call breach

[2:04:52] significant difference in terms of whether or not it is likely to recover. Let's >> do it. Let's do it. Okay. So, um here, uh just cuz I know people are trading, you know,

[2:05:07] like shorter duration positions, um I wanted to look at 15 DTE spy strangles know, call input side, we want to look at both sides to understand, um when those strangles hit a 1x loss. We're going to be isolating those cases. Um

[2:05:21] does the source of the loss kind of like when we say matter, does it make a difference in terms of like how you can expect that loss to kind of recover? um they hit a 1x loss about 27% of the time. The shorter duration positions um

[2:05:33] you know smaller lo you know loss thresholds compared to like 45 DTE positions are more common. Um we looked at the study you know like last week uh you know when it hits a 1x loss there's a 41% chance overall of that position

[2:05:45] expiration when we take all the other management conditions out of it. And so today, what I wanted to look at is depending on whether the loss is a put breach, a strike breach, or an IV pop, how does that change the chance of this

[2:05:59] type of position recovering? Make sense? >> I like it. Yep. >> Cool. Okay, let's get into it. So, here we're actually using 10 years of data. to present. We're looking at 20 delta, 15 DTE spy strangles, no management

[2:06:13] considered. Um, we really just want to look at isolating the trades that have a 1x the initial credit loss at some point prior to expiration. Does the initial [clears throat] make a difference in terms of like the overall statistics and

[2:06:28] we're going to be estimating the initial source of the loss as either a call breach, a put breach, or neither, which we're going to attribute to IV. Um so then broken down by source determine the probability of recovery and then also

[2:06:42] the average and median P&L uh you know of the position as well as the C bar. Um we're going to assume that we take the trade off once the P&L flips positive if be looking at sort of like the aggregate statistics of that strategy. Make sense?

[2:06:57] >> Cool. Okay. So this first slide uh that we're going to be looking at is basically like what you know for strangles that do hit this 1x loss initially what percentage of those are caused by you know a call breach a put

[2:07:11] attribute to IV and what you can actually see is it it's actually split split spread [laughter] split pretty evenly between uh call breaches and put breaches. Uh call breaches are a little bit more common. and they're about 47%

[2:07:24] of the sources of those 1x losses um versus 44% for a put breach. Um and then versus 44% for a put breach. Um and then IV actually happened more often than I was expecting about 8.5% of the time. Um and what you see here as well for each

[2:07:38] like at what point relative to average. And what you can see is that uh call breaches and put breaches happen much closer to expiration versus IV pops, you know, which like happen

[2:07:52] the trade in the cases of the 1x losses that we looked at. >> Yeah, that makes sense. I think uh when you have when you're when you put on a direction or you have an IV pop and it's it's an out of the money 1x loss, that's

[2:08:07] going to happen much more commonly uh with days left to go like cuz you don't or working for you in that sense to prevent the out of the money loss. Uh

[2:08:20] the world. Like that's where you're going to see the majority of losses, breaches actually being more common over the last 10 years, we've had very bullish market conditions, right? So like that that to me um made sense. Um

[2:08:34] but yeah, those IV pops happen on average pretty quickly um in the trade with 11 days to go in a 15 DTE position versus the breaches which really happen at least you know on average from you know drifting prices over time um is

[2:08:48] is why they happen a bit closer to expiration compared to those IV pops. that when you go to the next slide is that when you look at the probability of recovery um you can see that the call breaches as you'd kind of expect very

[2:09:03] bullish market very rarely recover little over 20% of the time a 1x loss from a call breach uh recovers about 20 yeah 20% of the time. put breach is a little bit closer to 50/50 um where in about 50% of cases if you know the

[2:09:17] initial source of the loss is a put breach then that recovers that 1x loss about 50% of the time in the cases that we looked at and then the IV related 1x losses actually recovered about 90% of the time at some point prior to

[2:09:30] expiration. So those IV, you know, pops that causes the that caused those losses, uh, very early in, um, very early in, you know, the time that you're the overwhelming majority of the time in the cases we looked at.

[2:09:43] the cases we looked at. >> Yeah. Um, this is one of those cases, uh, and I'm going to quote President Bush here. Uh, you breached my call once, came [laughter] on me. You breached my call twice. Well, you can't

[2:09:57] moving that whole thing up. I'm done with that. I'm done with it. And this is exactly why. And this like in spy in particular, the more a market goes down, if I have a strangle. So like I'm going to leave that put on. I'm going to roll

[2:10:10] it to a straddle and have like a an in the money straddle covered call type feel. But if I'm testing on the upside, I'm not underhedging and leaving that upside over time. Like I'm moving the whole thing up. And that's why these

[2:10:23] these year-long trades in MES and MNQ have worked out so well because into those up moves when we're when we're tested on the upside, we are moving the whole thing up so that our our short put is now tested uh versus the short call

[2:10:36] you get hit on the call side in a bullish market in a low VIX like you're you're playing with fire. >> Yeah. I mean Yeah. And and Q is exactly situations because of exactly that. That's what's great about this piece.

[2:10:51] >> Yeah. Um, very cool. And this also kind of like ties back into sort of like some last week, which is that the having more time to recover plays a very big factor when it comes to managing a position. Um, right? Like that that time factor

[2:11:06] like and we're looking at 15 DTE positions, right? Like the, you know, but the IV pops happen pretty early on in the trade on average is like kind of specifically looking at 1x losses. Um and then those you know just you know by

[2:11:20] more time to recover which plays a big factor here as well. Um and then when we >> I have a question I think I missed [clears throat] why why did you guys choose 15 DTE versus like any other time frame. I just picked 15 just because um

[2:11:35] that expiration like shorter expirations, right, are just becoming more popular on average. But um sort of like we talked about uh the last time we talked about a similar study is that we use daily snapshots in these back tests.

[2:11:50] like you know a shorter duration but enough data points to really you know probability of some of these losses flipping. So that you know 15 DTE kind of seemed like a sweet spot between shorter expirations but also enough data

[2:12:05] to be able to make a more conclusive u you know decision I guess or assessment >> Um >> got a lot of numbers up here. these are some pretty cool numbers. So uh call breaches are like I should say

[2:12:19] 1x losses from call breaches are highly unlikely to recover. That's about 20% of the time they recovered at some point prior to expiration. Um but their tail risk was significantly lower than losses called by caused by put breaches or

[2:12:32] losses caused by IV um sort of like ne by neither breach. Um so even though the put breaches are more likely to recover the put breach losses are more likely to risk because in the cases when they don't uh just because of the sheer like

[2:12:47] know downside moves in the market that can cause those call breaches that that causes a bit more tail risk uh in the cases that we looked at. Same with IV. in a second, but the losses that were caused by IV that were kind of that

[2:13:02] didn't recover as well, even though most of them did. Um, a lot of the, you know, IV related losses eventually turned into put breaches, which is why they have kind of a similar tail risk profile as the putach case. Um, but 90% of recovery

[2:13:17] median P&Ls when you're looking at the put breach um or the IV related loss situation or IV cause law situation. Um, but that does come with higher tail risk kind of as you would expect. >> I mean, I see this and I think, you

[2:13:31] makes a move to the downside and implied Vault goes up, I shouldn't be too worried basically is what this tells me >> until you get a put breach. That's the kind of like right if V goes up and you haven't gotten a breach yet, high chance

[2:13:44] of recovery. Even when it does breach to the put side, just because put you know related losses are more put cause losses are more likely to recover. those can also recover in a lot of cases, but in the cases where they don't, especially

[2:13:57] management style, like getting out, you know, halfway to expiration, using, you know, stop losses, any of that kind of stuff, um, then those losses can become during the back test period that we looked at. Yeah, I think it's I think

[2:14:12] it's really interesting because like you look at you look at the put breach and you also think to yourself like well what if what if I rolled this like right a 15-day cycle I rolled it out in time to a 30 or 45 day and I moved it back

[2:14:27] out of the money and down and then if you if you think about that transaction where you're buying back this losing trade opening up a new trade in a further dated cycle into a sell-off I would imagine that the research would

[2:14:40] show the the recovery is significantly higher once you move it further out of the money cuz now you're getting yourself into like a a brand new trade in isolation where you're selling a put out of the money into a big sell-off in

[2:14:53] >> Mhm. So to your point, there's other management styles that you can uh deliver here. But if you were to just isolate this specific thing, you can still see that uh being breached on the put side and or having an IV breach

[2:15:09] resulting in a 1x loss like those are situations that you can recover from recover from. Yeah. >> And uh they're less worrisome if you are sized correctly. the C bar is higher because to your point the elevator down,

[2:15:21] escalator up, but if you're sized correctly and you can hold it and you can just roll it uh out in time like you you have a a better scenario than being >> Mhm. I mean, it's interesting because I

[2:15:34] did this I think at live shows maybe a little bit in our our um our our bad trader tour and maybe I think um the other time when we had that one thing where we came and talked about like a trade that we I talked about how when I

[2:15:47] thing dudes would be like don't don't ever be don't ever be sure to put you know like because most of them had traded either in or just after the 87 crash you know like the my OGs at the time and so like they were still fearful

[2:16:01] >> and they were levered up. >> Yeah. I mean I mean probably to some degree get it back then maybe not as much maybe to some degree but just still still scared a lot of people right whereas now after we've had all these

[2:16:15] different types of moves we know that you can potentially recover and even then at the end of the day like taking delivery on a put which you know is is not the scariest thing in the world right um not to say you want to take

[2:16:27] right now because those are very expensive stocks but you guys get what expensive stocks but you guys get what I'm saying Yeah, for sure. And I think like yeah, the other piece of this is it's again like the time piece um quite

[2:16:40] a bit. So, uh just like with IV like because these happen so early in the trade um you're balancing like is this the most efficient use of capital is like kind of really between like you what should be I would say in my opinion

[2:16:54] whether to give a position more time to recover and keeping the capital tied up in that versus redeploying it elsewhere. And when you have a loss from IV IV just giving it a little bit of time to recover before especially they turn into

[2:17:09] a put breach potentially um can can mechanically it seems like Um but that being said, it's really the balancing act of like is this the best use of money right now? My money because like could I deploy it elsewhere? um by

[2:17:24] the time it really becomes like a you know a deep call breach or deep put time left in the trade and IV is you know certainly popped as well um in especially the put breach cases like you

[2:17:37] rolling uh Mikey Mike Mikey like you said like we're readjusting the >> 100% >> cool so uh and then in this next table this kind of like this kind of like shows what I'm talking about in a little

[2:17:51] bit more numeric detail but uh basically uh when we look at the IV driven losses like the IV you know pops that basically caused that initial 1x loss 48% of them eventually turned into put breaches and that's really where that C bar kind of

[2:18:06] comes in and why the C bar for you know like leaving those on and leaving them that's really where that tail risk comes in we can see that very rarely do they turn into call breaches um and you know about half of them ultimately sort of

[2:18:21] same kind of tail risk is when they turn into a put breach. So the kind of like middle ground approach here would be like if IV pops especially early in the trade and it causes a 1x loss looking at these 20 delta 15 DTE contracts then

[2:18:35] giving it a little bit of position like time to recover um the loss of the a put breach is really that middle ground approach um at least according to this study. Yeah, and it makes all this makes

[2:18:49] perfect sense that uh an IV expansion would come from a downside move in SPY. So it would be crazy if you saw the opposite where like IV expansions into call breaches, but not if you're in like a tech stock like Micron or Sandis that

[2:19:01] opposite I would imagine where if you're if you saw an IV an IV increase loss, it downside because there are different dynamics in different markets. But in

[2:19:13] SPY, it's always going to be downside move equals IV increase. >> Yeah. And then sometimes like the IV increases and then it just comes back down and it just stays neither like it doesn't turn into a breach position. And

[2:19:25] in this, you know, one specific study was um positive. So uh not resulting in losses at least looking in those worst 5% of cases. So um it's really a like capital deployment, what's the most efficient use as well as like the risk

[2:19:40] of a single position and how much you know capital you're willing to leave exposed potentially especially with undefined risk positions. Um so yeah, >> Love it. Cool. >> Incredible stuff.

[2:19:52] >> Get uh for the takeaways just to kind of go through these. Um so for the 15 DTE spy stringles tested, 1x losses occurred about 27% of the time at some point prior to expiration. they recovered 41% of the time overall, but the source of

[2:20:06] the 1x loss um we saw made a statistical difference in terms of the chances of recovery and the tail risks. So losses from call breaches were the most common carried significantly less tail risk than losses caused by put breaches or

[2:20:21] recovered about half the time, but carried roughly twice the tail risk of losses caused from call breaches. um IV initially, you know, caused 8.5% of the 1x losses that we observed but recovered 90% of the time. However, those, you

[2:20:36] know, small number of cases that didn't recover, you know, created comparable tail risk to sort of the losses from put breaches. And that's really because um the losses that started out from the IV pops turned into, you know, put breaches

[2:20:50] in those more extreme cases. So you're always going to kind of like carry tail risk and just like P&L volatility overall by leaving a position on But looking at those IV cases, the kind of like middle ground approach would be

[2:21:04] especially a put breach is kind of the one to look out for in spy um or you >> Cool. >> Yeah, I think this is super important data and it's it needs to be shown that uh it helps it helps you decide the next

[2:21:20] move really. Yep. >> Like when you have the put breach and IV increase and you see the recovery probabilities from that uh it's just a I would say. >> Yeah, for sure.

[2:21:32] >> I'd say so too. And always important to remember that this is spy that a company losses caused by binary events or FOMC announcements might behave differently. gold standard of like you know super liquid um you know well diversified

[2:21:48] note, you know, the lens that we approached the study from. >> Absolutely. Well, Julia, appreciate you. >> Yep. >> Thank you guys. >> Love it. We'll see you a little bit

[2:22:01] >> Bye. >> Uh even selling off a little bit here. we'll cover some questions here. We got and Chris. I was just looking at this MNQ position after we we're talking

[2:22:15] about the the management and things. Um, the short call at 31,000. I've gained 350 bucks from the 566 I sold it for. So, over 50%. I think it makes sense like as kind of a pseudo hedge to roll this down maybe if I can collect a nice

[2:22:32] this down maybe if I can collect a nice premium. Rolling it down from 31,000 to 30,000 is what I was thinking. Mhm. >> pick up another 300 bucks because my thought process here is like, okay, if we do rally 2,000 points from here and

[2:22:45] I'm tested on the upside, it's getting close to that time where I'm going to be rolling out anyways if it happens over the next couple weeks. But if it if it just chop around from here. I would love to have another $300 in cost basis. So,

[2:23:00] I think I'm going to do that. just roll down 1,000 points to the expected move, get closer to my short put at 29,000 and then if we end up going up through 29,000 up to 30,000, I'll just shift the whole thing up or roll it out in time or

[2:23:13] >> Nice >> into this massive rally. I mean, this is this is a big rally. >> So, the crazy thing about about mine, so I'm still in August and I'm still at the 31,000 strike and the markets are

[2:23:27] >> Yeah, >> they're not even making markets on it. I'd be freaked out, but you know, luckily this thing settles the cash. So, for the last like week and I hadn't been able to and then it's just been clear

[2:23:40] like the market has not moved. So, there's nothing I can do about it as of there's nothing I can do about it as of right now. Um, I guess I'll just have to >> And again, it's just going to have to settle the cash. Um, luckily I have

[2:23:53] trade. I'm just I've just realized now like clearly this market is not like oh look at the put strike I mean look at look at it look at the uh the August 31k >> which one

[2:24:07] >> uh the the 21st so yeah actually regular August um go down to the 31k >> Oh yeah >> it's frozen. It's not doing anything.

[2:24:21] Yeah, the call side kind of is, but the put side is is frozen. It's weird. >> I know it's a trip. [laughter] Every day I was trying to get out. I was like, moving it down. I was like, "It won't give me anything." So, I guess I'm just

[2:24:34] going to have to let that settle to cash. Oh, wow. We just we had we were >> Yeah. >> So, we hit that uh 28,228 in the NASDAQ. actually paying attention to Nasdaq because I think that's more of the mover

[2:24:48] here. That's why I'm quoting in NASDAQ. We hit 28 228 which is basically the high of two days ago and we just faded off of that. We hit it twice. We hit it, faded again, and now we're fading. >> So, we'll see what what what it what

[2:25:02] happens. There's clearly that's an area that uh that significant. Yes. >> Yeah. Uh and yeah, I think I mean this is it's kind of nuts. We're right at 28,000 on this butterfly. I put in an order to close it for five grand. I

[2:25:17] don't I don't think we'll get get hit, but if we do, we'll take it. If not, >> We're strapping ourselves into the the rodeo. Uh that will be the NDX bowl. >> That's going to buck us around tomorrow. Uh but if we chop around like this is

[2:25:33] train I've ever been a part of for sure cuz tomorrow the max loss is $700 if it 20 grand. So, think about the bid ass spread move like the P&L open is going

[2:25:46] >> Yeah. >> Uh but we'll be able to take a big chunk out of that if we open around here. If we just pass through that range, if we pass through that range tomorrow, we'll be able to take, I think, five grand out

[2:25:58] you want to be, right? After a huge move and we just having a huge move and we'll see what tomorrow does. I mean, if there's a huge followthrough, I'm fine many long deltas in the book. if for some reason we follow through big if we

[2:26:12] of the worst case scenario. Um but I've actually been trying to find ways to offset we've we've sold off closed some of our Microsoft. Um I've tried to I I'm short a call in NBIS that is kicking my butt today. But you know what? I'm fine

[2:26:26] with it cuz I'm making much more money on a lot of other longs. I actually sold on a lot of other longs. I actually sold a call in uh BE I think. I don't even the call in BE. That's another name that was up up big. I sold a SE 300 call in

[2:26:40] there. Um, and again, these are all against positions that I'm winning. that's actually a little bit different. But SMH I'm sure of put in there. Um, I hell are you selling a call in these names?" I'm I'm sure to put in SMH. I'm

[2:26:55] I'm uh I have SND, SanDisk, and Micron call calendars not only this week, but next week as well. I'm short a put in in Intel. I'm sure to put in Marll. Um, so I have all of these long delta semi-names, uh, iron, Oaklo, uh, via

[2:27:12] short puts, and so I'm willing to like sell some calls every now and again in kind of, you know, if you want to, I don't care what we do. Just move big. >> Yeah. >> Um, but yeah, lots of trades we pushed

[2:27:25] through this morning. Some of them are closing trades. Microsoft call crap from yesterday, $253 winner. Paul diagonal spread from a while ago. $475 winner at Microsoft into this rally. Uh Meta Super Bowl 49500 670 650. I did a similar one

[2:27:43] Bowl 49500 670 650. I did a similar one uh the 520 510 600 615 out in October. And yeah, it's just like these are the times if you're trying to catch a bid in M in Meta trying to buy the dip uh into this big sell-off here. Uh these are the

[2:27:57] >> Yeah, for sure. I mean I it's um you know and again these are risk to find >> but uh it's um and we went to October I you know October I feels like a good I mean given everything that it's going through right now it was it was weak

[2:28:11] heading into this cycle this earning cycle that just made it even weaker so time I mean after what we dealt with with Microsoft for so long dude like it it is July I mean when did we first get in Microsoft like

[2:28:27] >> March wasn't March it was March So we've been, you know, and we took some of did it again. So, >> I mean, I I feel like you might be able Meta right now. >> Yeah. Even if it goes to like 600, like

[2:28:42] been trading in the last couple years or last couple months here. Uh or even if last couple months here. Uh or even if it goes from 5 530 to 560, 570, like it that those trades to really appreciate. >> Uh but yeah, crazy day so far. Uh but

[2:28:57] again, we got Amazon after the close. We got Apple after the close. We put on a uh Amazon call crab trade. So I got into the 240 long September, sold two of the 255s in the one day and then uh bought the 270 in the one day. So looking for

[2:29:14] I'll just turn this into a diagonal spread. My cost basis is nine bucks. So, I'll just buy back the short components uh and get rid of the 270 and then roll uh and get rid of the 270 and then roll into the uh August 250 most likely for

[2:29:28] >> I totally things are moving so fast I in be and then sold the call on the early. [laughter] That's right. That's >> Love to see it. Uh but yeah, markets seem to be sliding a little bit here.

[2:29:40] the day. But if you want to reach out to us on Twitter, I'm at trader Mikey B. Jamal's at Jamal Chandler. Thanks for joining us this morning. Uh, and keep it We've got plenty more content coming your way on the YouTube channel as well

[2:29:54] pass it over to Liz and Chris right now. pass it over to Liz and Chris right now. Stay tuned. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[2:32:55] This is Confirm and Send. She's Liz Dear King. I'm Chris Veio. Liz, this is another wild market today. >> Honestly, yesterday was bonkers. today. Chris. I mean, I like the movement. As an as an old school floor trader,

[2:33:10] options, I like movement. I don't care which direction. Pick a direction. >> We are certainly getting the movement here today. NASDAQ still up about 2.6 2.7% here. A little bit off the highs when it was north of three. S&P 500 a

[2:33:24] north of one. But, uh, a big rebound after those Microsoft earnings. And Liz, I mean, that's where we got to start the show. Microsoft here up 14% right now. I think it's its largest single day gain since 200 uh 2008 at this point. Um a

[2:33:40] particularly for the market outside the expected move as has been the case for expected move as has been the case for all of these AI trades as it were. Um We have evidence in hand that a hyperscaler company can make money with

[2:33:54] AI. >> Evidence in hand. I like that. I like of two cities right with Microsoft and Meta. Mhm. Oh my gosh. Well, Meta uh on the other hand, not sure what's going on there with my mouth, but uh Meta is it's

[2:34:08] recovering a little bit. It's still off 8.3% here. Gosh, [gasps] Zuckerbergs, did you see or listen to I You don't listen to the Q&As's for some of these I I see the I hear the clips of them cuz people put them into my Twitter feed and

[2:34:22] >> You did? >> Just not confident. >> Oh, >> very opaque. Very opaque. Not great. But today. Uh, is it a dead cat bounce is

[2:34:36] the question? Dour. >> Okay. So, and I don't I don't know. I a beach, right? So, >> well, what's the option change telling >> So, but we are getting a reversal. What

[2:34:48] what's my what's catching my eye, Chris, is it's 10:00 and at 10:00 Chicago time. I apologize for everybody else out there. We aren't up as high as we used to be right now, right? So the we had a massive rally this morning and now we're

[2:35:01] giving it back up. The SKOs are only up under a percent. So the the options are VIX is. Let's see where VIX is right now. So VIX is down 10% which is still pretty big. Um that's actually a pretty

[2:35:14] big move which leads me to believe that we might go down a little bit more but I don't know. I think the the options chain follows. So which came first Chris chicken or the egg? option chain is we in full disclosure volatility and

[2:35:27] pricing is based off buying and selling right like if you're going to break it down to its simplest component the volatility and the any option chain is based off buyers and sellers if there's more buyers than sellers if there's more

[2:35:39] buyers and sellers then prices go up it's simple economics so that's what the option chain is saying because if you're looking at the volatility increases increasing then there's more buyers than sellers

[2:35:51] >> yeah you have to break it down to its simplest form. I mean that's always I underlying it is the underlying mechanism for everything in the market some algorithm there it's well maybe algorithms are doing the trading but

[2:36:05] price and where where's the demand where's the supply more probably more deeper question and you might not have the answer I know I don't it's a legit question with so many algorithms trading so as somebody who is

[2:36:18] a 30-year veteran who follows the market and I think the market is smarter than So if you're listening to what the market is doing, it's a lot of algorithmic trading. >> It is um you know I have a friend uh

[2:36:33] maybe this is an interesting correlary. So I had a friend who worked for a prop trading firm in New York City when we were right out of college T3 trading. Um I think then they're still open uh and around today. Um but one of the things

[2:36:46] that they were teaching those folks and this is 2011 12 time. it's still right on the other side of the global financial crisis and uh algorithmic its its foothold. So they were teaching their folks basically level one order

[2:36:59] flow trading. You'd look for the big blocks of trades to see where there's there could be obvious uh, you know, lines in the sand, if you will, lines of defense, uh, big put walls, big call walls. And most of their first, this

[2:37:13] alive. And, and I think 23 out of the 24 guys were out of the business after that level one orderflow trading group. >> So, by looking where the big orders are, See, >> and this is Yes. And this is before like

[2:37:28] but no one's aware of this so you're getting these like fake orders going stepping in front of your order so you're not getting the price that you want and all a sudden you're getting whipsaw in trades and uh you know it I

[2:37:40] is a you know really tough environment he survived he's went on to Black Rockck Citadel and now runs his own hedge fund. Um, but like I don't know, right? I don't know if there's necessarily uh, you know, we like the volume of course

[2:37:54] here, but the algos themselves, the way that they've influenced the market and change it. You can't just look at that top level surface level anymore. You the prices and the skew and all that jazz

[2:38:06] like that fake order flow. >> No, it can't be. And that's an excellent point that those SKs cannot be be manipulated in real time. That those are through. it no longer like the spoofing of those cheap orders. Those are those

[2:38:19] actually changed it. >> I mean, like in theory, I could put out an order to buy, you know, a 100,000 shares of uh the S&P 500 and just have that no one's going to make my market ever, but it'll be like there it is on

[2:38:32] 100,000 spy, >> but that won't change the pricing of >> Yeah. Yeah. >> But I don't need to actually push that around like oh look at these big expect like all these orders are just there you

[2:38:45] not not applicable. >> I'm actually laughing. It was pretty Slim? >> No. the floor as well. And at one point he

[2:38:58] floor attempted to see if he could manipulate the close of the Dow which was easy at the time. There was 30 steps and he jumped in and tried to put orders And he's like it was the worst day of my life.

[2:39:11] manipulation of the market. The market will catch wind of it pretty pretty >> Sure. Uh hey Liz, we have four questions here from confirm and send. As always, Research tastilive.com. research at tastyclilive.com. If you're on the

[2:39:26] chat, like, subscribe, and also share your questions there. We get through But these are the four that have been hand selected by the producers that they the determination that three of these four are for me today apparently.

[2:39:40] you, but I will take number three just on principle alone. How about that? Is >> Cuz like I said, and I need I need to clarify by saying that there isn't a question that I'm afraid to answer. I am literally an old school quantitative

[2:39:54] trader. So, a lot of these Chris, I'm going to defer to you. Okay. So, let's go to number one, please. The Fed held but the tape read it hawkish dumped 800 points then ripped back the day on Microsoft when the index

[2:40:09] round trips that hard in a day on a Fed plus earnings. Is that elevated IV you want to sell into or the kind of whipsaw that eats strangle sellers alive? I'm going to can I add to this? I'm going to add another question to it. So, and I

[2:40:23] to this but I also want to hear your opinion about how wild the intraday move was because the market loved what the Fed did originally. loved it. We went into green >> and then Moore started stop speaking

[2:40:36] >> and then and then he said yes exactly. Okay. So then Chris take it away. just because Ivy's high doesn't mean I want to do anything naked in the market. Um and I think the important context is here. What's driving the what's driving

[2:40:50] the bus right now, Liz? Yesterday it looked like it was long in yields. Then can actually make money on AI. And today it's the earnings relief. and we might that doesn't mean long and yields have taken their foot off the accelerator.

[2:41:04] a stronger grip on the wheel right now. So, where's the whip zone is the [clears throat] better question here. Um, if I'm going to sell volatility or look to to play this market and say that we maybe see a continued V contraction,

[2:41:17] Hopefully, those panic points are outside of uh, you know, expected moves. yesterday's low, for example. If I'm trading around the market here today, that this thing can rebound, we saw with that surge yesterday in the 30-year

[2:41:32] yield, which was I think it's largest single day increase that we had seen four years. Um, you know, 7324 and a level to operate around and ESU6 here for SPX will be a little bit different, but I wouldn't want to just sell blindly

[2:41:46] tomorrow and decides, hey, 30 years are at like 5 and a half%, maybe we should what the earnings were. We saw that in 22 and 23. It didn't matter what the earnings were. When rates get into the driver's seat, it can subsume other

[2:42:00] things. So, this is a really fascinating 48 hours. Um hopefully Apple and Amazon direction. >> So, it is a fascinating 48 hours and more simp. [clears throat] The fall is there. The fall is there.

[2:42:13] And blindly selling naked strangles is almost uh I I always say trade Budweiser commercial drink responsibly. It's it it's irresponsible to be just can still sell premium and define your risk. So if you want to if you want to

[2:42:28] long as you're defined. >> Right. So yesterday's low is 73 in SPX. I mean, are you getting much of anything there? Five points wide, 50 to pull it up a little bit if you want to be a little bit more adventurous. Uh

[2:42:43] still some V there on the zero DTE for SPX. 7330 7340. Um $155 in credit. not fantastic. You're going to have to interesting when you when you move across pricing and you start to see that

[2:42:59] giving you a little bit more money than those closer to at the money. It means one of those quirks. Maybe it's pricing, maybe it's not, but perhaps a thin >> Well, and uh with the zeros you got to

[2:43:12] have some implied volatility in the hair because you have to have they have to what they're saying is that common sense slide kicks in where I mean if you're looking at the the the 70 7280s there has to be a price level, right? And that

[2:43:25] is two standard deviations down. So they have they'll all trade around the same something trading differently, bring it up. Chris, while you're on that, I first days I keep an eye on the SIBO uh S&P volume. This is one of the first

[2:43:39] days that puts over calls as the leader on the board and it's the 7,300 level. >> 7,300 level. Let's scroll down there. 36,000 contracts traded today. so as of right now, we usually see, you know, around 2530 that and and it will

[2:43:55] it's calls over puts and today is puts over calls >> is the I mean, I don't know about all through all all of them together, but still have two big earnings reports coming up after hours, right? What if

[2:44:07] yeah, we've actually decided to start doing capex and secret and we now have negative free cash flow." [laughter] Right? I mean, not that I think that's know, that's just where we are in this market right now where if you're

[2:44:22] thinking about the quality of earnings, can earnings subsume the Fed? It did today so far. It could easily turn back off tomorrow. >> It could. I mean, and it could go either way. Tomorrow could be another catalyst

[2:44:34] burger or a catalyst to the downside. No one knows. following that trader in there, you don't need to do it naked. If you to just do a fivepoint wide long put spread 7,300 72.95 risking 30 to make 470 only

[2:44:49] >> Look at that. So if you want some if you want to put your money where [snorts] to the downside. This is a lowcost I said this sounds like a commercial. A lowcost way to make that bet because you can make $470 here if it if it comes to

[2:45:02] >> Yes. We go on to question number two. What's in the box? Liz. >> Okay. Let's pull this one back up now. Another one. Chris Dakio, with the 30-year Treasury yields above 5.2 and the yield curve steepening, is the bond

[2:45:17] and government debt are becoming a bigger risk than an economic slowdown? >> Perfect. Next question. Just [laughter] kidding. I mentioned this on the morning show. There's many different ways to read a

[2:45:32] yield curve. Yield curves flatten. They bull steepen. They bear steepen. They both flatten. They b they bear flatten. They move parallel. They have nonp parallel shifts, they twist. Um, what we saw yesterday, the 210 spread had a 9.7

[2:45:45] not the 30-year, but the point of reference is that long and yields were going up on a relative basis to shorten yields, and we saw the 30s get hit again overnight. We actually saw 108 handle on uh ZB at one point overnight.

[2:45:58] Why is that the case, Liz? Uh, I think this is like straight, this is just the textbook. If you're going to keep interest rates lower for longer, you're giving more life for inflation and growth to breathe. And inflation and

[2:46:11] end of the curve. So yesterday, Fed keeps rates in check. 30% of the market expecting hikes wrong. Two-year yields come down, but we're going to get lower goes up. So you get your bare steepener.

[2:46:24] Long end rates are rising faster than short end uh rates. So government debt, I have been think my entire life has been defined by people worried about the debt ceiling. The only time it's really come to fruition was August 2011.

[2:46:37] So, uh, I can't even say government debt is part of the equation, part of the problem here right now. Um, if we see that kind of stuff, this is not really even tradable, but

[2:46:49] where foreign demand and indirect buyers at Treasury auctions stop appearing. And that exodus has not appeared at any point in time in the past 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, 15 years whatsoever. So I once again these are my questions. I'm

[2:47:04] chat. But so from a simplistic perspective, Chris, so what does that do that does something for the yields, but when the risk-free rate or 30-year bond away from people being in the in the equities and in the market?

[2:47:20] >> Yes. So the way that uh the way that portfolio managers figure this stuff out, there's something called the Fed model ratio. It's the earnings yield of the S&P 500 divided by uh the 10-year Treasury yield. How do you get to the

[2:47:32] earnings yield of the S&P 500? You just flip over the PE ratio because price to price, >> right? So, if you have a 20 PE ratio, you have a a five earnings yield. Okay? Um so, thinking about it in those terms

[2:47:45] when you can get historically speaking, Liz, treasuries are safer than stocks. And so if you can get the same riskadjusted return on treasuries or get do from stocks, why take the additional risk that stocks afford

[2:47:59] >> and risk-free basically risk-free as well. You're right. In order to play in the sandbox of the equities market, you have to be with getting more than the >> right? And I think what a lot of folks on our side of the table in terms of

[2:48:12] appreciate or remember or think about in a day-to-day is that most of the market aren't folks like us, right? They're folks, at least in equities, they're investors. And so when you think of portfolio managers, they're operating

[2:48:24] around these like investment policy statements where they have defined risk their clients, right? Uh this 40-year-old has money saved up. They going to have these life events along the way. They're going to buy a house.

[2:48:38] college, yada yada yada. In order to get from point A to point B, what type of risk can they accept? What type of assets fit that bill? how do I add into them a little bit each quarter? Blah blah blah blah blah. And so like this is

[2:48:52] longerterm yields rise above that earnings yield for the S&P 500. It gives those capital allocators a reason to say maybe I don't increment allocate incrementally to stocks here in the short term. I can take less risk and get

[2:49:05] income. >> And that's why the bond market and the equity market have a a pseudo inverse relationship. Right. you're worried about stocks going down, you buy the fixed guaranteed return and

[2:49:19] appreciate. And listen, you sell your bonds at low yields and you buy stocks when they're cheap and then bond yields rise and stocks go up and it's a happy Beckio do? Do you have a lot of uh do you have a lot of risk-free assets in

[2:49:32] >> Yeah. >> I got a letter I got a letter a few years ago from my uh from the people that hold my money or held my held my money, I should say, at the time. It's like you're you're over you're

[2:49:45] overinvested in stocks and it's like g just I'm I'm I'm in my 20s. What are you stocks. >> That's so funny. I took it away from our give it to me. I was like I'm done. I I take I handle everything now. Just

[2:50:00] because they they thought I was too risky and I am maybe. But that's fine. >> Yeah. No, we don't need it. We don't need that jazz. No. >> Don't need to pay someone to run our money. Uh okay. This one's for you. My

[2:50:13] but most of my positions are short volatility. How do I know? Well, how do I know whether the portfolio is truly neutral or just neutral until volatility >> Well, it is beta weight to delta is a theoret. It's a theoretical. So, the

[2:50:26] the spy. You can beta weight to anything, but the default is spy. And I don't I'm pretty sure it's still spy on the on the account. So technically the beta weighted delta is what your portfolio should in theory move up or

[2:50:41] down given the move in spy. So you got to remember deltas are dynamic, right? to remember deltas are dynamic, right? So as things move your your neutrality will move with it. So uh delta neutral portfolio is only delta neutral while

[2:50:55] keep that in mind. Deltas are dynamic and everything does move. So even if you come into something totally neutral and you're selling premium, you are either choice, depending on which way your premium selling leads you,

[2:51:09] maybe a complicated step, but you can run a scenario analysis for your have two positions that are both uh effectively neutral, so to speak, short volatility, but delta neutral. What if uh in one scenario the VIX goes from 15

[2:51:24] to 20 or let's say the VIX terms 5%. And um your positions fall too. Are the returns in that outcome correlated? Are you really holding the same thing? Right? A true neutral position is not

[2:51:38] volatility jumps. Um how you get there is depends upon your trade construction in your book of course. But Liz, I think the zero beta weight to delta is not neutrality. It's simply one dimension. of neutrality.

[2:51:52] >> There is no true neutral portfolio except if you are long something and short something, they they wash each other out. There is no real true neutral portfolio unless you're using synthetic versions of the same trade. So that's

[2:52:04] Greeks and especially beta deltas, they're theoretical. So even in your you of got to know where your deltas are coming from and what you want to happen.

[2:52:16] [snorts] All right. Last one here. Sear >> Oh my god, this is definitely for you. Even if every position is small and defined risk, how would SVAR change the way I look at a portfolio where several

[2:52:28] tra several trades could lose at the same time? same time? >> Um, SVAR is effectively telling you uh whether or not you actually are diversified or you know all your trades

[2:52:40] trench coat and it's just really it's not an adult. These aren't all adults. It's all just kids in trench coats around here. No, I mean that's so VAR is if a market goes to this point, how much do I have at risk? Um CR is basically

[2:52:55] saying what's the average loss beyond that? So you're exploring the tail. Um and so when you're looking at CVAR ultimately you're trying to figure out or is everything I'm holding am I truly diversified because if it's if if I am

[2:53:07] diversified then I shouldn't experience a blowout or a significant draw down. Um, and I'm sure a lot of folks who were in a similar road as me uh in the first quarter at points felt this if you were long tech stocks, right? It didn't

[2:53:21] matter if you were short V and an Intel or an Apple or a a Micron and just pick a name out of the hat. Everything was going down together. So, uh, not as much thought. >> Okay. So, that can I can I ask so is

[2:53:36] SBAR the equivalent to if the wheels fall off scenario? So it'll give you basically what it is? Worst case within reason because we all know if you sell a put you're if if the stock goes to zero it'll say you have that's your worst

[2:53:49] that's not going to happen if you are 45 days out right. We assume we make the zero. So the conditional value is at risk is the C bar is that like your real realistic wheels fall off scenario your biggest.

[2:54:04] >> Yeah. effectively like uh VAR is a confidence threshold like what's at the give me a like what's the 90% threshold if everything goes sideways and then CVAR is exploring well what's the if everything goes sideways and things are

[2:54:17] that >> so wheels fall off >> I think it's fascinating Chris and like I said I wanted you to answer these two that this is out there for people right now that it's not just you have to know

[2:54:31] so yeah I know what my risk is in position when I put it on and I I'm glad platform which I think is an amazing platform. It has it out there because I think for a long time options trade options trading and options got a bad

[2:54:46] Well, if you understand how to trade options, you know your risk, right? And you and there is outliers, there is tail risk and things of that nature. So there is a very large warning label that should go go on these and I'm glad it's

[2:55:00] it's actually a physical calculation that you can see on the platform. it's it's important to check that from time and again because you I always ask this a new trade or is this the same

[2:55:14] trade I already have on? Cuz I could just be levering up, right? And that's not necessarily the intent of what we're trying to do here. So if the factors are all the same, then yeah, you may have five small positions, but on a day like

[2:55:26] yesterday, all five of those positions are the same trade. So that's what CVAR considers, right? >> Yeah, it's kind of cool. All right, >> I I don't you I don't use it. It to me, it's like one of these things uh you

[2:55:41] know, I'm looking through like my CFA textbook. I see it in there. It's like, you know, immun It's like immunizing bond exposure. Like I've never had to Granted, I'm not a bond portfolio manager, but like it's conceptually it's

[2:55:55] out there. I haven't found any real world application as like a day-to-day peace of mind. Like I said, I don't use it either and that's why to you. mind tool >> and some retailers want to know

[2:56:08] happen to me and that's basically the way that I look at it. look at it. All right, Liz, as always, we get four questions here every Monday Confirm and send. Send them to research attastylive.com.

[2:56:22] Research at tasty.com. Before we head off the air real quick, just for a quick break, we have Gus and Errol coming up next for more live trading. 7400 we'll call it here in ES NASDAQ pinned at 28,000. Good news for Mike and Jamal,

[2:56:34] which had they put out at the uh their little their little butterfly earlier this month. They were two giddy school children today about this butterfly. >> You know, as nice as things are working out for the tech side of this market

[2:56:47] here, the one thing that we do need to pay attention to is that this is not a widespread rally today. All the stuff that had been going back up in recent days is really being sold off here today. So RSP, fantastic. Look at the

[2:57:00] network. I don't know who they were, but some folks like myself were saying, highs." Not right now. Uh Frankie just sent this over in the chat a little while ago here turning talking about the overall uh

[2:57:13] turning talking about the overall uh breadth in this market here. Um I think 173 stocks are up right now. Most stocks are down here today. So if it's MAGS, right, having a little bit of a good day. If it's the semiconductor names, if

[2:57:26] you're a Micron, if you're an STX, if you're Nvidia, you're having a a pretty decent session right now. But it's not the rest of this market here today. That just shows how heavyweighted how how big those heavyweights are, right?

[2:57:39] So when you're looking at the the rest of it isn't having a good day, but those everything. >> They are holding up everything. >> What has given back, Chris, since we've been on the Blues are only up 53. What

[2:57:51] has given back its gains? Like what's the what's the pullback right now? >> Let's see. Well, Meta is still down eight. Meta is still down 8.8%. Uh where else are there pockets of red? Software is having a pretty bad day today here.

[2:58:05] Um, down across the board. I mean, into it, uh, Workday, FICO, Workday, for example, pretty gross session down 8.7%. The consumer defensive names, the names that I loved recently, Proctor and Gamble, Colgate, Kimberly, uh, Kimberly

[2:58:21] Clark, they're all down. So, it's just a kind of mirror bizarro world of what we >> Yeah, it is kind of a mirror bizarro world. So, do you think we're going to they want final thoughts right now too, but so Spoos right now SK Spoos are down

[2:58:35] 51. It is the the European market's going to close in about 2 minutes. Um, forth when that happens. What do you think the rest of the day is going to bring, Chris? >> I would be surprised if we don't get

[2:58:47] anything other than a pin up until the close given Amazon and Apple coming out. of the Middle East that will surprise people and jostle us around. But the rest of the session, um, I don't see much of anything from [snorts]

[2:59:01] from the macro calendar or the Federal Reserve side of things. >> Okay. So, you think we're going to this you think we're going to end 7,400 is >> Uh, we're in S&P right now. We'll call it 7360. We'll keep keep slouching. Keep

[2:59:14] >> Oh, I'm sorry. I was looking at spoo. Yeah, we're in SPX. So, stand right what tomorrow brings. >> Liz, we have so much more coming up here today. More live trading coming up with Gus and Errol here next. You're watching

[2:59:27] Tasty Live. Stick around after the break.

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[3:02:07] back to Risk and Reward. Today's Thursday. Uh we got one more day of the month starting tomorrow. So, it's been a it's been a pretty exciting, I guess, a slower trading month starting the beginning of May. Uh, but things are

[3:02:20] volatile. But before we get into everything, Brother Gus, how we doing is Yeah, everything rooftops about the last like month or so is just all suddenly aligned today and

[3:02:33] fruition at once. So, I I'm a happy camper. We have just just everything it's a sea of green in my portfolio today. So, uh, the the excitement of the lack of sleep last night. These things offset.

[3:02:48] what 3 hours. You're good off. >> Yeah. You know, it's you can you can function on anything. If you if you stay up long enough, then the tired the tired >> Off. >> Yeah. There it's it's fine. Just stay up

[3:03:01] for days on end. Nothing bad will happen. ahead and jump right into the market. Uh, anything else top of mind? You know, little spiel before we get into things, but is there anything outside of the

[3:03:14] as we head into the TC platformer? >> Outside of the market? >> Uh, no. I'm honestly just Yeah, I'm starting to get excited for football until August, but all of a sudden we're just we're just like three and a half

[3:03:26] kind of kind of the main thing on my on my mind right now. >> That's fire. I love it. You're a Bengals fan, right? Speaking about NFL terms. >> Yes. Yeah. Bengals Bengals NFL Texas&M college football. Well hopefully

[3:03:38] substantial this year. Good year last year. We'll see. Giggling in my ear from production team. But yeah, we'll uh we'll see how things pan out there. But >> No, I love it. I love it. We can go jump into the tasty platform here. See what's

[3:03:52] pretty aggressive selloff the last hour of market open yesterday. Uh and a know, just straight chugging on higher and higher. So, uh overall market up about 2 and a half% today. uh a very notable again two and a half%

[3:04:08] considering the last hour we we witnessed yesterday. With that being said, that's absolutely killing V right now. Uh so volatility a little bit down is still pretty good considering, you know, where we've been uh over the

[3:04:21] summer months. You know, we were pretty comfortable trading at around 16. Uh and upside in the market and volatility is coming back in, a 19 VIX isn't too bad. thought volatility would have collapsed just a little bit more given the given

[3:04:36] the aggressive uh rip to the upside, but I mean, what was your initial reaction off of seeing that all that green today so far, Gus? I mean, we barely got any >> Yeah, definitely surprised. I mean, I was I was on uh overtime with with Chris

[3:04:49] Veio yesterday and we were I mean, Meta report came out terrible. Microsoft freef fall and we were kind of saying like, oh man, like this this could slide to step in front of this. There's no clear point to for the bulls to step in

[3:05:04] and want to catch this thing. Uh and it took like 2 hours and then all of a sudden everybody was like it's a great time to buy. We're so back. Uh so yeah, I was I was surprised uh by by the rally and this this immediate bounce that

[3:05:16] we're seeing in today. Uh but I am happy about it. At the same time, I my my S&P again, just just right where I want to be. I was saying all day yesterday, you >> hanging just under that 7,400 level that I need and I was like, "Oh, this is this

[3:05:30] just fine. Gives me room for a little bit of upward drift over the next 22 days." Uh, and then yesterday after market bad meta report, S&P came down, "Okay, we're straying a little bit far from where I want to be right now." But

[3:05:45] and we're just sitting right at that uh 7385 currently. Uh right right below >> Yeah, we're just hanging out right I mean if we look at you know the micro Nasdaq's low sitting around 27,200

[3:06:00] yesterday and the high we put in today at 21,243 that's a little bit over a,000 points to the upside in less than like 12 hours. So again uh the moves to the really be understated. There's a lot of volatility in the market right

[3:06:13] although the opportunity increases so does the risk sometimes. Uh but I mean I being said, I mean, that was the first time we've seen any type of pullback, I NASDAQ was kind of leading the way with all that directional momentum. And

[3:06:28] yesterday was one of the days where we actually got a pretty decent down day in the S&P 500. I know we quote uh the Q's and tech so much on this show cuz we're always looking at it through the NASDAQ lens, but I mean, SPY definitely showing

[3:06:41] again, recovering very nicely, up almost 1% on the day, up almost seven handles. So, um, a lot can change in such a short amount of time and that's really felt like it's been the theme over the last the entire of 2026 actually and is what

[3:06:56] that being said, we did a little bit in the portfolio today. Nothing too crazy. recovering a little bit with the overall market. I had to take this one off mean, that was one of those positions where I felt like I was playing roulette

[3:07:10] seeing a little bit more green and considering the fact that it seems like these moves in the memory name. So, took advantage of the pop that we had seen today in Micron up about 108 points. So, pretty big day for Micron, right? Up

[3:07:24] about 15%. uh Micron is used to seeing these very wide you know volatile range type days and it it's normal to see these on the memory names and I and I it whenever it comes down to the indices is because of the fact that it's an

[3:07:38] type of ranges it's always really have been very used to these these massive ranges that they've been trading on the day so took advantage of it

[3:07:50] want to overstay my welcome on that one cuz it feels a little bit more like a counter trend trade to the downside and we had some long delta on. So we might memory names. But >> yeah, I'm I'm happy you bring this up as

[3:08:03] well because you guys may recall at SIBO yesterday, I didn't wind up acting on it, but I said out loud I was like, "All right, guys. I think I think the run's over. I think SanDisk could continue to sink. So you should everybody should

[3:08:16] probably just buy if I'm saying that." And then of course today immediately SanDisk is up 20%. I have no read on these things at all. It's it's it's incredible how how poor my my reads are

[3:08:28] nice bounce coming through the entire sector. strange like we have sort of separation happening where like Seagate had the great earnings call uh yesterday

[3:08:40] before the open or or Tuesday after the close whatever before market yesterday and we saw Seagate and uh Western Digital both move up on that but Sandis downtrend but it was like it just took 24 hours and everyone was like wait look

[3:08:53] at Seagate and then all of a sudden SanDisk and Micron go back up and STX STX yeah and Segate up uh 11% again today so yeah big big breath of fresh sector right now. >> 100% pretty large gap up as well. This

[3:09:07] of these memory names actually. >> Nope. [laughter] >> That's a hard no. >> I mean, it's funny you bring that up, one of the ones that dug into some of my profits for the year.

[3:09:21] trades that we put on, I think most of my losses was on the front side of the move earlier on at around $3 $400 when Micron was trading. Uh but I remember definitely a difficult one to to get a hold on. Uh so going to try our best not

[3:09:35] these names and again even though we are pulling back a little bit more I think these names are very much so in playright SanDisk Micron uh Intel a lot continually putting in consecutive highs like they were just a few weeks ago uh

[3:09:49] volatility is there and again volatility is a trader's best friend. Uh but we took Micron off of the table uh today so far. What we've done, we sold an out of had that one on for some time. And then we also bought a QQQ put just given how

[3:10:03] much we've rallied off the lows uh from yesterday. This one expires in about 8 days. We bought the 660 puts. So this is a a very cheap contract. I think this one only cost us about maybe five bucks and some chains. We can actually take

[3:10:16] um this was only cost us about 428. So it was a little bit of a cheaper option. down maybe 50% of the debit that we paid, maybe we cut the position, but given the rally, I thought it warranted a little bit of short delta, even though

[3:10:30] the money put spread that we sold on the cues. Yesterday, I took off the short on selloff. And then when I'm seeing this rally, I'm like, man, what a difficult chicken with both sides of the market sometimes and that's what it's felt

[3:10:45] today. Uh, and then SpaceX finally recovering a little bit. Up a whopping four donero, $4 today. So, I mean, I'll take it. We sold out of money put spread there. We got 22 22 days left till expiration. And, you know, maybe we do

[3:10:59] get a pop within these next 22 days. I'm not going to count it out. Even though I haven't had the most nicest of things to say about SpaceX. Uh, and then Google of sitting in the range that we needed in. Uh, this was one of those that we

[3:11:11] an additional credit, widening out those break evens a little bit more. Uh but an earnings trade from last week. Not a big earnings guy anymore. I am excited terms of earnings, we've only put a trade on.

[3:11:25] >> Uh just a little bit. The earnings have always been so I again the first year uh almost like all the earnings, but I would just put on iron condors cuz I was very amused by the idea of IV crush. And I'm like, okay, so if if we don't really

[3:11:40] get a substantial directional move in the market, I can just bank on the implied volatility crush after, you know, that uncertainty kind of fades the earnings. So I was doing that for some time, but using the iron condor,

[3:11:52] sometimes it can leave you with a lack of flexibility uh with those trades. So even rolling down those sides too much sometimes to where then it'll turn into an iron fly. I recognize when you're at the points where you got to turn your

[3:12:06] iron condor into an iron fly, your your your position is very well gone. points where you got to roll, you have to roll these contracts down so much it turns into an iron fly. It's such a difficult trade to pin uh near

[3:12:20] said, I don't want to roll these too much. Let's see if we can capitalize on some of this decay in Google uh and keep it that way. We did a little bit in the difficult market to trade today. There were a couple trades we could have

[3:12:33] chopped up. That was 300 bucks on the day. Uh, and we took we took quite a few little bit. Uh, and then there were a couple trades that, uh, the stop losses could have been managed just a little bit quicker. So, pretty difficult market

[3:12:47] scalping end. Uh, curious to see what you guys did today. But with that being said, that's what's been top of mind in my mind, Gus, and in my portfolio. I got for the day. This reversal is, to not be understated, pretty aggressive. Um, but

[3:13:02] else on top of your mind for you? >> Yeah. Yeah, lots in fact. do we start? Got no shortage of stuff. Uh, first of all, yeah, what's going on today. I saw some Bengals support coming through earlier. Shout out C King. Who

[3:13:15] Bengals? >> Probably our own secondary and O line, when we come to it. What's going on? Branch, destiny's million-dollar trooper Yes, that that's a that's apt analysis about Lamar Jackson going to Louisville,

[3:13:30] Bengals. Um, especially with obviously no professional team in Louisville, you Uh, I see some Taco Bell discussion happening. Point B, gas is up, but we been won 101 times. Yes. And we'll win it 101 more times. All right. Maybe

[3:13:47] Um, Ranch talking about I decided to do a little zero day short put vertical. a little zero day short put vertical. Oh, short put vertical spx 7360 7355. go wrong? I say ranch. No, I I like that trade. It feels like very bullish

[3:14:01] momentum day and you got a little bit of clearance. I I I'm a fan of that. Um you today could could be a big catalyst, but the zero day, you're kind of perfectly isolating that, jumping in the middle. Um what else we got going on here? State

[3:14:14] words. I don't know how to catch up on this. Oh, you guys are talking about tax assessment on real estate. Fun fun. I'm not I'm not going to dive too deep into stuff. lot a lot of games you could play in that regard as well. Hey, nice boy.

[3:14:27] see you as well. Happy everybody's here. As far as what's top of mind for me, uh This one >> was that taker. >> Bax. I just just talked about Baxter International yesterday a little bit.

[3:14:41] This is one that I put on uh let me let me be be confident in my dates here before I just go go yapping. Um, I put this on

[3:14:56] >> That can't be right. I guess it is. 72. Yeah. 702. Yeah. 702. on 28 days. I mentioned this one when I put it on. This is just one that I saw on. I didn't understand it at all. We were coming way off the lows, like five

[3:15:12] year long lows, and suddenly Congress has taken six figure swings at this. It didn't make any sense to me. Suddenly now it does. I still couldn't tell you what Baxter International does. I don't know what they sell. Do they sell things

[3:15:24] or services? I don't know. And I don't care when I see that type of collection happy to go ahead and take a swing on it. And yeah, we we got the move today. Uh this was this wound up being a 100% winner to the penny. I got in on uh July

[3:15:38] winner to the penny. I got in on uh July 2nd. Uh naked what? Naked January 21st, 2nd. Uh naked what? Naked January 21st, 2028. 35 calls is what I bought at 225. Got out today at 450. So, uh a perfect uh 2x there on that one. Very pleased.

[3:15:51] Uh they had a very good earnings report. Raised their forecast. Drug compounding. >> Yeah, cool. Good for Baxter. They're S&P 500 inclusion baby. 0.01% of the S&P 500 International. Um but yeah, happy to see this one pan out. Sometimes it really is

[3:16:07] just that easy. If if Congress people if Congress people that you don't usually see trading suddenly pull out $500,000 and throw it at something, sometimes it winner that I've already cleared for today. Uh Microsoft is obviously the

[3:16:20] kind of the the talk of the town today. Up up up big off their earnings report yesterday. Uh kicking the crap out of Meta, which is down big. I'm long both of these companies and this is an interesting exercise in in cost basis

[3:16:32] things can work together. But all I have in Microsoft is a uh bullish put spread expiring December 18th of this year. That's at 440 450. So one contract uh on each side, but one defined risk position. On Meta, I'm much more leged

[3:16:47] up. Uh Meta, I have the same expiration cycle December 18th of this year. I have a 69700 and then I have December 17th of the following year, 364 days after my first expiration, 820 830. So there's two of those there. You would think that

[3:17:00] with how much Meta is down and having double the the size and actually almost exactly double the buying power invested into these that I would be getting hurt could cover for Meta. That hasn't been the case. The upside on Microsoft has

[3:17:13] been so aggressive that I am up $3 US currency, count it, between these two positions. Uh so good good lesson in in you know parabolic action how gamma can gleaned from that but uh pleased to see Microsoft covering my meta losses. I

[3:17:28] saw those moves coming through yesterday. Uh Rocket Lab. Second thing on my mind here was RKLB is the ticker there. Um this one was my trade of the day. Uh what it's Thursday, so Tuesday I I did this as my trade of the day.

[3:17:42] was a little bit scared. We kind of got the nightmare move off rip and suddenly we're being tested on that top side. Immediately the nightmare move is gone. We are back up pretty much uned on the position and feeling very secure at this

[3:17:55] time and feeling very very secure because this to me is further acknowledgement of this 60 level that I've been talking about. 57 to 60 has And here we are again. We test that 60 level. Something of a confirmed bounce

[3:18:10] hoping hoping that the bottom is in there. Uh very pleased. This one is an aggressive uh upside 2x one. So needed it to come through quick. Requires a lot of management. But when things are going well with these 2x ones, they go so

[3:18:22] as well. >> Up 7 and a half% on the day. I mean, 450 >> Great start to the rally. >> Yeah. And then, uh, last thing I would I would point out is BuzzFeed. You You guys know I'm BuzzFeed hater number one.

[3:18:34] They are down another penny today. Uh, they just continue to continue to put put these legs in down. Reaffirming my thesis that this looks crazy dead cat seeing this week. The bulls try to step in and get a little bit of momentum

[3:18:48] like the looks of this. Like I said, looking for looking for sub $1 before I to to work to the downside on on BuzzFeed. Oracle. Let's let's take a look at Oracle. Oracle logging a logging a good

[3:19:03] try to catch this falling knife earlier this week and it seems that I have the moment. Uh we have caught a bounce off those lows. Uh my timing wasn't on Tuesday, so we did have one more day of draw down before this pop today. But

[3:19:18] we are net up on the position. I'm looking for 135 by August 28th. So very look at this chart, can you put that uh line on the like your cursor on 135? the corner. >> That's nothing. That's nothing compared

[3:19:33] >> One more green day. You got it. >> Yeah. So feels like plenty of time this on the chart relative to where Oracle has been. Uh so certainly a good step in the right direction here. Um I guess the last thing I would talk about

[3:19:46] Deal that shouted this out in the chat yesterday and with precisely 3 seconds of of technical analysis I said sure I'll fire an NE nuclear company trading at year-long lows. Why not? And uh this is going to be another one hopefully. I

[3:20:01] out but looking at least initially like this is another one where I have just with very little TA. It's been a common hope this continues to stay a theme in my trading life. Sometimes it just

[3:20:14] on some of these entries. You you get on runs, but uh yeah, what is this? A 9% move up for for any today immediately we're straight in the green with a little bit of cushion. Uh this one is a

[3:20:27] 1920 shortput vertical for January 15th. I do have three of them on. So, looking for $20. Uh, again, another one where if $20 feels like a large way off look at $20 on this chart, it's like it's right there. 180 days is is plenty

[3:20:40] of time. 170 days. Uh, so great first move from NE. Let's keep it going. >> Yeah, I mean, up 9% on the day, up a$134 is a cheaper underlying, so you know, a pretty significant for the underlying. So, that's really nice. I know a lot of

[3:20:53] these stocks are catching some really nice pops on the day. Um, so I mean, you of this week, all those kind of things, you know, sets that risk profile pretty made earlier, I think it was what or Rocket Lab or Oracle getting another,

[3:21:07] mean, that's going to be a drop in the bucket given the volatility we've seen >> yeah, we got more tech. The range on Oracle is ridiculous. Oracle is another one of these uh Meta SanDisk style style stocks where it's like anything inside

[3:21:21] 5% in a day is like, oh, that's nothing, you know? It's it moves like crazy. So, over to Meta here. I would like to do something stupid. I'm gonna add more long meta. I just keep going back in an abusive relationship. All right, but

[3:21:35] >> here's what I think about Meta. Okay, Meta, it's like an opal. All right, if if you if you look at it from from the from the angle of, you know, uh this all this spending that they're doing on AI, just looks boring. It just looks white.

[3:21:49] shift your viewpoint, you say, "Well, all this AI has to pay off sometime. The market excitement has to return here. I'm a Zuckerberg buyer myself. I think this smart glasses push. I really like everything that Meta is doing. And so,

[3:22:03] little bit and suddenly it's beautiful. And so, because of that, I'm going to dive back into Meta here. I am ready to get hurt again. Just to reiterate, I have 69700 December of this year, 82830 December of next year. So, my closer one

[3:22:18] is 141 DTE. I'm going to look for the quick recovery on this gap and go a little bit tighter. I'm looking at October 16th of this year, 78 DTE. October 16th of this year, 78 DTE. I'm currently set up around 690700.

[3:22:30] 78 days. Does it get back to 600? I kind of feel like it does. So, I think I'm going to add I think I'm going to add another leg in here. Uh we can go go way up on our strikes. It's going to be highly disproportionate risk. Um yeah, I

[3:22:43] can get a 595 600. This is 120 of buying power for 380 of credit. Obviously, also making my max profit 380. My max loss 120. So, very disproportionate risk there. Meta the this thing has the propensity to move like crazy. Another

[3:22:57] one just same exact logic as I was just expressing with oracle 600 would be like the buck >> a week ago. Yeah, we're trading above >> and somebody just snatched up the the good asks. This actually just moved up

[3:23:09] to 408 for 120 of buying power. So even better. Uh so I'm going to fire off one of those as well. And we're just going to pray. Zuckerberg save me please. Uh let's see. Going to have to get This is a wide widespread. We'll get slipped

[3:23:23] a little. It's fine. All right, there we go. Filled at 390 on that. Here we go. But yeah, I I feel content with that. Uh the Meta position is starting to look visibly ridiculous in my portfolio, but I just I just refuse to believe that

[3:23:37] this thing can't log highs sometime soon. They they have their their hand in in so many different things. I mean, AI nonwithstanding, they got the smart their social media platforms. I

[3:23:50] free cash flow and I share them too. I trying to do too much too soon with AI, but this gap is just too attractive for shown us it can move, especially seeing some buyside momentum coming through

[3:24:02] here off the bottom of it. So adding to the long meta position, I want more pain. I'm a masochist. >> I think I I I like it. You massive gap single day in uh in something like Meta. And you know, uh great business model. I

[3:24:17] some of the things that they target. I wish Apple would take a page out of Beta's book and just at least try something. I think Apple's in the in the they don't really want to if it's not broke, don't fix it. And I feel like

[3:24:31] Apple's pretty much stood by that for quite some time now. So, I like it. >> I see I see lots of lots of disagreement with with what's going on. I'll take the a lot of downside momentum. Zuck going to call Gus soon. Tell me what you see.

[3:24:44] toast. So is Meta. Sorry, man. See, I'm I'm I'm fine with this. I'm I'm fine stepping stepping in front of the rest of this. I will say I'm not one to just uh glaze Zuckerberg either. He's a He's a Skevie little guy. I I don't know. I

[3:24:58] wouldn't let him babysit my children or anything like that. But I I I do like his ambition. I mean, he's just shown us over the years a real propensity to stay out in front of the trends. Um, and like like I've said a lot of times, I just I

[3:25:13] think with the stagnation, uh, and I don't mean in the market because they're performer in the market right now, but the innovation is is stagnating at Apple, it scares me a little bit. And I I I can actually buy the thesis that we

[3:25:27] glasses with with the world moving forward away from away from smartphones 30-year thesis. That's nothing that I could actionably trade options on right now. But I see the vision. I see the vision with with all these different

[3:25:42] ever since then, I've kind of seen where Zuck is coming from with all these out, but I just feel like this this has to be a discount, as scary as it is to understand this is an abusive relationship. I understand I keep going

[3:25:56] back and getting hurt. Uh but I'm I'm ready to try it again here. >> I almost I didn't realize how early, you know, the whole metaverse thing came upon us. Like I didn't realize how early on we were with that with some of that

[3:26:09] really see I can't really see like Metagogles and Vision Pro and all that really becoming like dominant within society or definitely not over the next 5 years, you know, maybe over the next 10 years. Uh but I actually I actually

[3:26:22] fruition a little bit sooner than they really did. I know I know I know Zuckerberg and them uh you know put aside billions of dollars to really anyways, with that being said, I'm I'm always excited about the new tech that's

[3:26:35] >> Yeah, people saying Zuck is an AI robot. Have you ever looked at the guy? Yeah, here's here's the logic, though. All right, stay with me here. If Zuckerberg is a lizard Illuminati robot, doesn't that mean his company is going to grow?

[3:26:50] Doesn't that mean he will continue to take over the world? So, if the lizards make a few dollars while they do, right? You know, then you you want to you want to invest in the Lizards. That was kind of a similar take to like

[3:27:03] how Elon Elon had so much publicity, so much scrutiny because he pretty much tied his personal brand with the presidency and Donald Trump. And I was comfortable getting along some of the Elon products if he has his hands in

[3:27:17] anyways, with that being said, always curious to see what they come out with. >> Yeah, stand in chat. I love my Oakley Metas. I use Instagram, not Facebook. great. I would I would definitely get a pair myself. When I was just on vacation

[3:27:30] wish I had some meta glasses right now and I could just document all this, go >> Yeah, I have some metagasses. They're pretty solid. I I They could do a little dies kind of quickly, but outside of that, I mean, the the idea of it and and

[3:27:43] work pretty solid. >> Stan, you can you can play video games don't care if you're 40. Use your MetaQuest. Who who cares? All right. The world's going to end in like the next 30 years anyway. We might as well might as

[3:27:55] well do whatever we want. Um, but yeah, so that's that's where I'm at. Adding more meta. Back international off. Microsoft winning, Rocket Lab winning, BuzzFeed winning, uh, N winning, Oracle winning, UNH is up a little bit. So, I I

[3:28:07] I'm I'm I'm very pleased with with the market action today as as you could moves we get to take advantage of. I know we have Apple earnings coming out after the bell today. I'm really excited about that. And, you know, the point

[3:28:19] a really funny position because we're trading near all-time highs, but we're down on the day. I mean, what do you do? Do you get long? you get short. An whenever you're considering Apple, right?

[3:28:31] market, especially with a lot of these big tech names, you know, showing showing signs of weakness, sinking a little bit, it's uh it's it's a tough one. You don't want really want to get long at alltime highs, but at the same

[3:28:43] showing any resilience. So, is there a reason that can't continue? Does it continue to be a safe haven? >> So, yeah, it's it's a scary spot to be >> Yeah, it's a tough one. Um I mean, we we'll see how it plays out. Uh we had

[3:28:55] had a lot of gap downs. We had a lot of movements to the downside on a lot of the market's at right now. You know, recovering most of the points in which we'll see we'll see what we get. Lastly,

[3:29:08] the volatility index. Volatility right now sitting at 1845. So the rally in the overall market continues or the fear is slowly still bleeding away uh fairly quickly. So with that being said, the Q's right now are trading at about 680

[3:29:22] a little bit of a rally off the lows from 661 now trading at 679 680, anything else top of mind before we wrap for the day? >> Awesome. Well, >> yeah, we will be back later today uh for

[3:29:37] amazing content coming up next. So, be sure to stay tuned for that. As always, Be sure to stay tuned for more amazing content on Next and we'll catch you guys content on Next and we'll catch you guys next time. Peace.

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[3:34:39] landscape and we just had a Fed meeting. Things have really changed. Here to discuss that and more with me right now is Mr. James Thorne, chief market strategist of Wellington Altus. How you doing, James?

[3:34:55] this market action more recently? And what what is what are your eyes drawn to these days? >> Well, I think the excessive leverage and the AI bottleneck trade are pretty much been, shall we say, eliminated. So, we

[3:35:12] should start to think about sticking our toe back into the trade and high-grading our trades. Um, a lot of the stocks have been taken back down to critical technical levels. So, I'm constructive there. Um, and I think with respect to

[3:35:28] the Fed, I think we've got to come to the realization that for the first time in a generation, um, the economy is going to be run by the private sector. interest rates are going to be set by the private sector

[3:35:43] and we have a lot of folks on Wall Street, I call them Keynesians, that are very upset because they're not going to be spoonfed and they don't have yet to realize the fact that the Fed is not going to basically micromanage the

[3:35:57] economy. And so Worsh isn't going to give him any information because there is no reaction function because it's the private sector that's going to reallocate capital and set interest rates. And I think a lot of people are

[3:36:11] having a difficult time recognizing the fact that there's a new sheriff in town. And this is okay. Look, the United States is escaping an error of what we call secular stagnation and the liquidity trap. And

[3:36:25] that's good. But, you know, we've had this since the the global financial crisis and a lot of people are having a tough time adjusting. the the market setting rates. I mean, when you look at yesterday and you see,

[3:36:38] you know, two years sitting at 4.7, the back end of the curve made a huge move, right? And and now we're at levels that we haven't seen since since 2007. I when when that type of action is happening and and things are are all

[3:36:52] is being given from the Fed like like we're used to getting? >> Yeah. Well, you know, in short periods of for short periods of time in history,

[3:37:05] do we have? We have large cap tech tech companies that were the providers of took their massive free cash flows, bought back stock, bought debt. Um,

[3:37:17] they're now spending in AI because they realize, they call it a prisoner's don't have the pole position in the new economy, they may cease to exist. That economy, they may cease to exist. That was the lesson of the 90s. So, you have

[3:37:31] a provider of capital in credit uh now demanding it. And so, the credit uh now demanding it. And so, the credit markets should respond and have higher rates. The question the question you have to ask is is the consensus thesis

[3:37:46] have to ask is is the consensus thesis on Wall Street that all AI capex is bad and none of it will be uh will see any revenue behind it I think is misplaced but you know this is a show me market and I think by the back half of 27

[3:38:04] and I think by the back half of 27 there's going to be uh irrefutable evidence that the growth of capex in AI from the hyperscalers is going to decline. The growth rate and the revenue achieved

[3:38:20] from their capex spending is going to accelerate rapidly. And what that should do is that should basically take the pressure off the long end of the curve, the 30-year and the 10-year because there's going to be less demand. And so

[3:38:34] we're in this little short period of time, but this is like, you know, stand back, take a deep breath, and realize what's going on. As opposed to think, like I said to you before, thinking that this is a period of secular stagnation

[3:38:47] and liquidity trap, and that when rates go higher, it's because inflation is run wild or we have a credit crisis on our hands. And both of those two conclusions

[3:38:59] that the majority of folks on Wall Street are running to are absolutely wrong. We're in a new era. >> We're definitely in a new era. I don't I don't know if you how many how often do you see them, but I I drove past a data

[3:39:11] center more recently um as we were heading to uh northern Wisconsin for the massive. I mean, absolutely massive. And again, it's near water. And so it's fascinating how it seems like these are some of the largest most inflationary

[3:39:26] things of our time when you see how how big they are, but yet it creates jobs to mention, I mean, it's turned Caterpillar into basically a a an AI play, right? I mean, when you see this type of action, but to your point,

[3:39:40] punished for the free cash flow issue. I mean, it does seem like it's sort of obviously I think the market showed us this is the case, but how long does this last or is it, you know, is it really

[3:39:55] to be that worried about in the time being cuz we're just going to spend and past it. It's almost like like Micro Strategies, right? Micro Strategies just what was happening. Is that kind of the same thing?

[3:40:09] >> Yes. In the short term, the market it's a voting machine, I always say. and and you you pull these things back to to to long-term support levels whether if you're a short if you're very very very shortterm it's for me it's the 65day

[3:40:22] exponential moving average if you're an intermediate trader it's the 200 day exponential moving average or the 150 if you want to be a little bit more active look at the action in quant today I mean so they took it right back to the 200

[3:40:36] call the monger rule if you want to just be really simple forget about what the company do does is If a stock pulls back to its upward sloping 200 week exponential moving average, you got to trade. So what I keep saying to people

[3:40:49] is you gota let folks is you got to let the charts do be your guide and then undo your fundamental work. I mean look everybody's in love with Microsoft but and you know they thing got smoked, right? And you know the long-term

[3:41:02] but remember in the first quarter what was it? Well AI was going to replace >> Right. they came out with monster numbers and all of a sudden this AI replacing my software company and in Windows well that narrative goes away

[3:41:17] and everybody shuffles off. So, you know, with respect to micro strategy, look, it the clarity act is going to get passed as in my opinion, there's going passed as in my opinion, there's going to there's going to be a a an agreement

[3:41:29] on the on the on the ethics side and then, you know, I look at Bitcoin and I look at where it is and if you cannot if you have not done your work right now in Bitcoin and you do not see at, you know, the low

[3:41:44] 60s, this is a generational buying opportunity, then you're going to buy it, you know, with the when it gets goes parabolic. with the when it gets goes parabolic. And I think the interesting thing for,

[3:41:57] you know, traders is the fact it's a very simple rule. Don't buy parabolic charts. Why do these guys want to buy parabolic charts? I it behooves me, right? You want to buy something like Micro

[3:42:11] Strategy or Bitcoin that's about to go on a massive run and then the dumb money will buy it to you after the parabolic move, but everybody wants to run into a burning house and the burning house are the parabolic charts, right? So,

[3:42:27] >> I like the AI bottleneck trade now. I warn people about it. There is too much stupidity in it, right? Just as there was too much stupidity in the gold trade, you know, now the short- timers and the ones that, you know, the

[3:42:40] intention deficit crowd runs along, runs away and we find out who the true away and we find out who the true believers are. So, I like So, I think, you know, the private sector is going to run things.

[3:42:53] Nobody recognizes that. So, you got the Keynesians on Wall Street and the pundits running around with your hair on fire. Get used to it. I got to ask you is Apple the burning house right now? Because that has been an interesting

[3:43:07] thing to watch how money has flowed out you know out of the chips at times has flowed into the consumer discretionary type of names and Apple it would it's an old term that I refer to. I call it chicken tech. And the

[3:43:21] because it's it's an area in tech that you got if you had to own tech. >> If you had to own it and you wanted to get away from the AI capex trade,

[3:43:34] this is the one you'd buy. It's extended. Look at that chart. I mean, that's obvious. Everybody's hiding out in it. And once everybody knows that the smoke is clear, the risk for this company is they are playing a very

[3:43:49] dangerous game by not innovating right and they need to innovate in for a new environment. Um you know Blackberry doesn't you know the BlackBerry phone doesn't exist. They were the innovators. You can go through company after company

[3:44:04] that failed to innovate. Now, Apple is not a hypers scale, you know, and how does they how do they morph into this AI trade? It's a very dangerous trade that

[3:44:16] they're not getting involved in AI as much as possible. And so, but hey, are years? Are we trading off the 30 minute charts? Are we focused on performance art for

[3:44:34] the quarterto quarter trade that most people are in the in the in the institutional world. So, you know, you've got to take into you have to respect the emotion of the market in the short term, but recognize the fact that

[3:44:47] eventually, as Graham says, the the market is a weighing machine, and market is a weighing machine, and fundamentals will matter, right? So, we are short compute, we are short memory, and we're short

[3:45:00] power. Those fundamentals don't go away. How do you want that to be manifested in your portfolio? is is you know whether it's your you know if you want the cat is it is it is cat your name because they have power do you want to do it

[3:45:13] with quanta quanta had monster numbers today do you want to do it GE Verona there's numbers of ways do you want nvidia albago micron right um so and then you pivot and you sit there and go and this is what I try to say to people

[3:45:27] if you are the those type of folks that are looking for the five and 10 bangers right then you've got to look in crypto because if the Clarity Act passes,

[3:45:39] there's going to be a wall of capital going there and nobody owns it. And people always ask me about Bitcoin. It's perfect scarcity. Nothing has changed. In fact, the fundamentals have gotten stronger, but nobody wants to buy it. It

[3:45:53] reflects the emotion and the psychology that exists in the market that you know the traders you you can use it as to your benefit, >> right? Yeah. >> And and so but that's that's that's the

[3:46:07] golf course we play in and that's okay, right? Everybody, you know, that's okay. a whole lot. Uh Bitcoin is one of those burning house. We'll find out tonight with earnings after the close. I have a

[3:46:21] short position visa v a put calendar. So, uh we'll see how it plays out. But chief market strategist of Wellington Altas. Appreciate your time. Thanks for watching, folks. This has been another Tasty Live interview.

[3:46:37] Tasty Live. I'm Jamal Chandler. We'll see you.

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[3:49:04] before we get over to the one and only Marty Vennett. We're going to just take a quick look around the market here. Uh stocks are continuing to point higher. 682 on your triple Q's. That's the NASDAQ getting north of 28,000 right

[3:49:16] now. A gain of more than 3% in today's session here. SPY sitting close to the typically the case. That's ES gain of about 93 94 points right now back to Uh it's been an exciting day. A lot of these chip stocks are moving here. A lot

[3:49:32] reasons why we've brought in Marty Vennett from the trade desk. Marty, >> What's going on? Second time. This is a charm. What's going on there? >> It's it's up again here today. So I think you're the secret. Whenever

[3:49:47] pump the chip stocks. >> Well, I like that 73.88 halfway back through that pretty easily. And then I think that 74 half 7470

[3:49:59] think that 74 half 7470 on the upside still. Um, I like that. A lot of S&P action on the trade desk that I've seen. A lot of guys moving their, stuff out. A little shout out to the Diamond Group who calls in quite a bit

[3:50:13] to make their adjustments on their trades. Um yeah, I mean you know you got sand scandisk and mu and micron all these what's it up 243 or something these what's it up 243 or something today? SanDisk and Micron which I kind

[3:50:26] of talk about and trade a little myself. That's just a it's a kind of a wild ride the uh type of volume it does and the way that this thing just moves. I see a lot

[3:50:38] of a lot more clients trying to trade it. You know it's hard to spread it out. I guess if you're trying to reserve some of your risk doing condors or you know of your risk doing condors or you know um uh strangles but yeah today has been

[3:50:53] a lot of movement or calls in on the trade desk with S&P moving out you know rolling stuff shorter term stuff out. We're starting to get some a lot of traders that are trading uh you know they're doing like diagonals in it where

[3:51:09] they'll put a base of like whether they start out an XSP or they start out an start out an XSP or they start out an S&P they'll build a base of you know 10 15 longer term puts and then they're selling shorter term puts against it to

[3:51:24] try to lower their cost basis down obviously a lot of calls in moving stuff >> before we go before we go any further uh XSP is not something that I talk about brief overview for the folks tuning in? What's the difference between XSP and

[3:51:37] >> Well, it's it's the same type of cash settled uh SIBO industry. It's just settled uh SIBO industry. It's just onetenth of the X SPX. So, people that your strikes are dollar wide in there, too. So, you can start learning how to

[3:51:52] adjust and trade these these uh strategies in XSP. It's cash settled, so getting closed out on a Friday or an expiration day. And because it gives you

[3:52:05] dollar-wide strikes, it's going to give you a little bit of cushion. So you you can put it that way where you're not where every spread's not a minimum of where every spread's not a minimum of $5. So, some a lot of newer clients that

[3:52:17] start out that are trying to trade S&P and maybe get a little premium selling zero day stuff, you know, you can do $2 Wise and $3 Wise and XSP and you can pick your, you know, you can surround your levels a little bit easier, I

[3:52:33] think. So, it's like a it's like a, you know, it's it's SPX light, so to speak, but it it can teach you how to put these trades on and adjust them and maneuver them with a little bit of uh little less risk, but you're going to still get the

[3:52:49] kind of fun to trade, I think. >> Right. And I I tell people when they're going into futures, like don't go to ES right away. Go over to MEES. And so, relationship. >> Correct. And MEES is a nice a nice

[3:53:03] product to trade because it can teach you how to trade directionally a little bit, but you have to be disciplined in it because, you know, a thousand point move in the MEES is $50 and if you're holding on to positions that have gone

[3:53:17] against you for that, you know, for that type of move, you probably wouldn't be So, you have to you have to maintain your discipline, I think, in it. But if directionally or learning how to trade, you know, future spreads, another great

[3:53:32] product you can use here. You know, >> the options are a little they're they >> thinner, though, >> right? You know, so you're, and taking them off, you got to be very cognizant of what the price points are

[3:53:45] and what the spreads are in it. I think, and I tell clients that all the time, over into the trade tab and check the open interest and volume on any given don't want to hotel California yourself into a position where someone's more

[3:53:57] when you want to exit, >> there's no willing buyer. relationship with a woman you don't like anyway, right? You know what I mean? You got to know when to cut ties with it. But that's the that's kind of the issue

[3:54:10] that I see with it is that because the multiplier is, you know, $5 a h 100red, you know, you get a trade that's 2,000 points against you. Well, your brain's telling you that it's only $100, but you have to know when to correct or when to

[3:54:26] when you're wrong, right? No. And I guess it's an interesting I like them because again, it runs with the mini and it can teach you the the basics of how to trade them and it's not going to be, you know, so dramatic if you do get a

[3:54:41] or day cuz we had two of them yesterday. That break at the end of the day was >> [laughter] >> I thought was that was I I turned my head around. We were down 115 handles. >> Yeah. I've been watching what's

[3:54:54] from my view. It's Oh, there goes EB down half a tick. Down a tick down >> Yeah. >> So, we have top we have top 20 symbols here, Marty. Uh my production team wants

[3:55:06] people are trading, they're talking about them online, but we're also seeing the flow here. Uh Microsoft naturally at the top of the leaderboard today with this 52 IVR. It's up 16.6% here in the market. When you're getting calls in

[3:55:20] what's the approach here? Folks trying to get long or they looking for ways to >> I think that they're looking for a little bit of a fade, but I think that people are already positioned in it have been going through this whipsaw the last

[3:55:33] few days. Anyway, it's the same thing with Meta. You know, Meta is are you going to take it? Do you think it's going to stay at that level where it's down 50 or $60 in a day or are you going to look for a fade or a move back up? It

[3:55:45] just depends how you have it surrounded. I haven't gotten a ton of stuff on Microsoft. I kind of like it. Um Meta, you know, it it this seems to be obviously it's an issue when their numbers don't come out properly, but

[3:55:59] it's kind of hung at that down $50 for the day, hasn't it? Didn't really, you know, break off of it that I saw. Um that's the one I'm kind of looking at right now. I have a couple little things on in it. I kind of like it to maybe

[3:56:11] bounce a little bit off of this, but again, I haven't gotten a ton of calls on Microsoft, which is which is kind of interesting, but I like it. I do. I like trading it, too. So, >> Metadown being where it is. Uh kind of

[3:56:25] happening in and we'll call it the AI space elsewhere. Micron, SanDisk, you mentioned Sandis that checks in [snorts] a bunch of stuff on today. I mean, that's just >> Micron Micron 2 up 16%. Right. Not a

[3:56:38] >> when I left the desk, my econom was up a buck $120. >> And I think that that maybe that thousand barrier, that thousand number, Chris, where you know, you're looking at it and it's trading down in the 880s,

[3:56:52] think it's going to bounce? If you take the the the fundamental emotion out of it, you know, it's that that number again, that thousand like the hundred in crude or, you know, and AMD again today, too. I guess the question would be like

[3:57:08] what was so horrible yesterday that's so great you know today but this is the way these things move now so if you're a trader I like the action and I especially like an MU I talk about it all the time but it's not for the meek

[3:57:22] at heart right because this thing you know what is that like I've saw know what is that like I've saw uh an assignment in MU today where $30 of extrinsic was involved which if I was talking to client, I would like there's

[3:57:36] no chance you're getting assigned, but what does it represent? It's like a two and a half, 3% move in the stock. You kind of have to adjust your whole trying to make sure that you're not getting assigned and things of that

[3:57:48] Absolutely. >> $30 of extrinsic. >> $30 of extrinsic. >> That's not three grand. leaderboard here today. I see that the two heavyweights that are reporting

[3:58:01] after hours checking at 8 and 10. Are folks more interested in playing the are more interested in playing the reaction right now to Microsoft and Meta than they are getting in front of maybe Apple or Amazon. Those are still active

[3:58:13] >> Yeah, Apple always, you know, and I mean Apple's another one that I watch all the time just to see what's going on with it in the sense of how it's how it's making its move with what's going on in the AI field as well, right? And again, you

[3:58:28] know, I don't get or we haven't been getting a lot of confusion about what people are doing in Apple. You know, a lot of, you know, having to move their their strategies around. It hasn't been a lot of calls in on Apple as of late,

[3:58:42] which is interesting. We'll see what it looks like today, too. I guess the bell 4 Eastern 3 Central. We're going to be covering them live here on uh the network on Overtime. Myself, Gus Downing, will be here. Marty, it's

[3:58:55] We're gonna have to bring you in uh for another live from the trade desk. Folks, on the network. We have more great live programming coming at you next. Uh coming up next, speaking of which, it is

[3:59:08] time for the trades of the day. Jamal, Mike, Errol, and then Chris Vermillion, our external guest for the session. All over the next hour. Stick around, grab here on Tasty Live coming up next. All right, Chris.

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[4:02:34] to Trades Up. >> A while 24 hours in markets. Uh we kind of anticipated this one. I mean, check the tape. Look at my trades. This is the way that I kind of thought things would play out and it's worked out great,

[4:02:48] honestly. I mean, um look, tech has been getting smoked for the most part for the We've seen Sandis, we've seen Micron, names like that get hit. Then earnings earnings. We we discussed it on here. We built trades centered around it. Intel,

[4:03:04] similar deal. Although Intel was up after hours, faded on earnings after. We saw Google, we saw Tesla, the whole tech thing is is really been kind of getting hit hard. And so you figured at some point there might be some bounces here

[4:03:16] and there all while we've been watching this rotation happen, right? Someday you come in, chips are up and uh consumer staples and software are down and and vice versa on on other days. So it's been an interesting thing. As a matter

[4:03:29] of fact, even today, if you look in this broad-based rally we're seeing, you'll notice if you see on a heat map, you'll notice most of the stuff that is up is obviously techreated. Chips related, more specifically, hyperscalers, AI

[4:03:42] trade, all of those are up. A lot of the things that are down, the Walmarts, Costco's, the consumer staples, and a few software names. But one software name is not down, and that's Microsoft. And that's the that's the uh crux of our

[4:03:56] a second. But I do find it interesting when you look at the NASDAQ and you see the high of the day here is around 2824650 that basically is around the same area from 2 days ago right when you look at

[4:04:10] from 2 days ago right when you look at uh the 28th the high there was 28228 so that's where we faded from as you can see and we'll see if we end up getting some follow through at all whether that's today or tomorrow which is the

[4:04:22] seeing we're not going to come anywhere near the highs of the month but we're basically set well the beginning of the month honestly on the first day of the month we see the highs of NASDAQ was around uh 30,553 so we're ways off from

[4:04:36] that maybe that technical damage will be repaired when it comes to to August we'll we'll find out but again a lot of this run has to do with uh Microsoft today it is bucking the trend of earnings it didn't matter um they

[4:04:49] weren't one of the casualties of the free cash flow war they were actually one of the ones that really are are operating well and it's it showed um on earnings and not to mention I mean I think I saw something the other day that

[4:05:01] m that uh that uh short interest in Microsoft is high as it's ever been and uh that also can just lead to a combustible situation which I think is part of what we're seeing here today. I don't even look at M Microsoft trading

[4:05:16] volume every day but I know 73 million is a whole lot and I'm guessing the options are flying off the shelf too um in this into this move. We've had this on for so long. Uh if you watch our shows, if you watch Tasty Live, if

[4:05:29] Mike, we've talked about having trades on in Microsoft for a while. We've been bullish. We just figured, you know, in some sense, this name is too big to fail such that I don't think Microsoft was going down to 200 something dollars,

[4:05:43] right? I mean, I feel like uh the this was a a a big sell-off that we've seen was a a a big sell-off that we've seen going back to to last basically around this time, honestly. Um, this is last 31st. This was the This is where it was

[4:05:55] trading on July 31st of last year, trading at a high of 555, right? So, $100 away from here. And the stock has just mostly gotten killed because the narrative has been AI is coming for software. AI is going to make software

[4:06:11] render it useless, if you will. And, uh, I don't I'm not a tech person. I don't I here evaluating this from a tech standpoint. I'm just looking at from a Microsoft's place in the trading world and it is the largest software name out

[4:06:26] there. It is still one of the largest names. And so for that that means uh I mean for Microsoft to no longer exist I I it just it doesn't seem to make sense to me. Um they're still a very viable company and they still have a lot of

[4:06:39] software that is used day in and day out. Is that something that we do we do using Outlook and all these other things? You know, I don't know. I that that is for other people to decide. But I do know that it's still a major

[4:06:51] company and I do know that it was one of the first ones to invest in Open AI on all on on the street. It was one of the first to do that. So it just seemed like first to do that. So it just seemed like it was really interesting. Um so we had

[4:07:04] in here. Uh basically similar trades what I'm going to get to today. We had those in waiting for a big move. We did capture some of that move in May and was able to take some off as it started to

[4:07:16] fall again. Replace those trades once it got down here. I don't exactly remember certainly placed trades into this downward move thinking, okay, it's around this same level that it was. And I'm pretty sure I placed more trades as

[4:07:29] beginning of June, so on and so forth. Had to sit in it and hold it. And for to September and did these trades because it just seemed like it was going to take some time, right? I mean, it it does take time when stocks get crushed

[4:07:42] like this to bounce back. You usually need a month or two if if not longer. Um, and so that's why we did it. Took those off today for big wins. Now, you done moving on to the next trade. And a lot of times I am, but I'll be honest

[4:07:57] interesting area for Microsoft. I think that it has more to go to be honest with you. Um, and again, they just had a great earnings quarter. uh they just you of all their announcements in cloud and

[4:08:12] So there's nothing really holding it back outside of public sentiment, right? And by that I mean when we have the days that chips are up, um are we going to of today? You know, is this because when you look around the landscape of some of

[4:08:25] the other software stocks, they're actually playing the same game that we've seen, right? Chips are up big today. So they are down, right? Uh call in here yesterday. I should have done it. Um you know, CRM down big

[4:08:40] today. So they're playing the normal game. Microsoft is not because again Microsoft is is back in vogue after a big earnings quarter. So long story short, I want to play for more upside in Microsoft and I decided uh to re to do

[4:08:53] the same strategy that I had before, but um just kind of shifted up. So in this case, I decided to to stay in September. I think again because the momentum is October and I'll get to that in a second. and I didn't like the way it

[4:09:07] lined up. But I decided to to stay in September and um ignore this 470 cuz this 470 is actually part of a calendar. So that's that's you know one trade that one of the trades I've had. That's a 470 calendar. Long sept short August. That's

[4:09:23] the Super Bowl and that's actually what we had before. We're going to do it again. And Mike and I have gotten so many different questions about this and the one who who brought this trade type of trade to my attention. right? Um some

[4:09:36] months back, maybe like last fall, we we started talking about these and I different ways, especially bigger names. This is one way to, you know, get directional in in a bigger name. Anything over 200, 300, $400 SPX, you

[4:09:51] can do them. Um and they all line up because it's all about strikes. So, what I've typically done is selling a put spread. And I I you know, at the very is pretty straightforward. And for those who are who are newer, I mean, when you

[4:10:05] sell a put spread, you're taking a sort of a directional lean to some degree, call it selling volatility, but truth be told, you're taking a directional lean because you're you're selling this put spread to somebody else. The idea of

[4:10:17] stock to fall. In this case, the reverse. You're selling the put spread. So, you actually make money if the stock goes up, goes away from the 430 in this case, right? Goes away from your strike, right? And the most I can make on that

[4:10:30] is $2.80. It's a $10 wide spread. So that means $7.20 is the most I can lose, right? And honestly, that's that's about where I sit on put spreads. I I don't like to do them very wide in general. I mean, I don't really do like a 20 point.

[4:10:46] right? So in this case, let's make a number simple. Um, it's $5.80. And just to give you the kind of ideas how I think about this, $5.80, right? That's a good premium to collect. But then my max losses is uh $19.20. 20 cents. I I don't

[4:11:02] I don't want the possibility of losing $1,900. I mean, basically, this is risking, let's call it, you know, uh four to make one. I don't really love that unless it was really far out of the money. This is still only $20 away. And

[4:11:14] honestly, Microsoft was only trading 390 not that long ago. So, I'm not willing to make that kind of bet. But, I am willing to make the kind of bet that I could possibly make 280 on on uh basically uh the chance of possibly

[4:11:27] losing 720. I can I can handle that loss. my book can handle that, right? But the night, excuse me, the nice thing about this is that you couple this trade about this is that you couple this trade with a long call spread. And the idea

[4:11:40] behind the Super Bowl is that you want to you're doing two bullish trades, right? Selling a put spread is a bullish trade. Buying a call spread is a bullish trade. And in this case, this is where you start. I I always say I um I I I

[4:11:56] going to go. For that, we go back to the chart. And so, we're at a zone now where see, it's been hanging at this high level of the zone today, but around 450

[4:12:08] to 460, right? Let's just call it 465. This is the next level that Microsoft needs to clear. When you look back here at January 23rd, right? Um, and this is just basic charting stuff. This is not like advanced, but this is kind of you

[4:12:21] right? It doesn't matter if you're using uh, you know, single moving averages or just look for greed and fear pockets. And the next pocket of of uh movement in Microsoft is somewhere between 450 and 465, let's call it. And this was the

[4:12:36] last update. This this big move to the downside here, which was probably in earnings, which it was in January. This is an area of of that it needs to get at. So just where that line is drawn through, right? Above that, you get to

[4:12:49] about 480 and then above that you can get to about 500. So I decided with my that we wanted to sell, right? We sold that put spread from there. You can buy um you just try to find a call spread that fits, right? And now you can do

[4:13:03] several. You can do $10 wide. I could have collected a $1.15 here, right? Um but you always want to collect. That's the real thing here. So I could have gone with this uh but I decided I want to go to the next trunch and I feel we

[4:13:16] have 50 days. I feel like this move could happen within the next 20 days or so, right? And so I decided to go 500 to 520. I collected at the time when I did the trade, I collected a dollar to put

[4:13:29] nice part about it. I'm collecting. And my biggest loss um when we let's put this to a dollar, but my biggest loss is $900, right? And that's all in the put have this call spread on for a credit. And so now we're just playing for an

[4:13:45] upside move. We'll see if Microsoft gives that to us. But I feel like the next move is higher in Microsoft and it has just a bit more to give. So we'll super bull Microsoft. We're still in the September cycle. Um, again, my max loss

[4:13:59] September cycle. Um, again, my max loss is $900. I took in a dollar of credit in between the zone, I just keep that $100. I don't have to worry about anything, right? But once we get the break higher above 500, then we could see potential

[4:14:12] big profits up to the 420 level, which essentially would get us back to essentially would get us back to Microsoft from uh let's call it November Microsoft from uh let's call it November of 2025 when nobody was talking about AI

[4:14:25] eating software as lunch. So that's the trade. We'll see how it plays out. Now, Super Bowl. We're going to hand it over to Mike Butler for his trade of the day.

[4:14:43] We got another trade idea for you, and this market is absolutely insane. So, we've got an insane trade in Amazon. Uh Amazon reports earnings after the close today, and they are already up 12 points, almost five, six% here, and they

[4:14:58] haven't even announced their numbers. So, little bit of a sympathy move here, I think, with Microsoft. You saw Meta drop uh 55 points trading near the session lows. They caught a little bit of a bid actually. But yeah, Microsoft

[4:15:12] going crazy to the upside up 63 points 16% and the gap is something to behold, that's for sure. So, Amazon seeing some strength. I want to play into that

[4:15:24] continued strength with today's trade of the day. And uh I think it's it's going to be very similar to Microsoft in the call crab trade that I did. Almost the exact same setup, but slightly different with short options and a near-term cycle

[4:15:39] versus uh August, which is what I did with Microsoft. I went that way with Microsoft just because I wanted to make sure that all three of my trades that I had in Microsoft had the ability to show profit. And we got a massive move in

[4:15:52] Microsoft to the upside, which was great for those three. Um, but this is my only position in Amazon. So, because I don't have any other positions to account for, I wanted to throw this on in pure isolation and just set it up for just

[4:16:05] I went with the short options in the 1day cycle. And I bought the option out in September instead of using short options in August with a long option in September. I didn't need to go as wide uh or be as conservative with the my

[4:16:21] strike selection compared to Microsoft. So, looking at Amazon here and where it was trading before, uh we were trading at 225 yesterday, it's up to 240 today.

[4:16:33] Big gap higher and we've got earnings on the horizon, of course. So, I wanted to go with an at the money call in the September cycle. And we can look at the table mode real quick. September cycle has 42% implied volatility. What you'll

[4:16:48] announcements is you'll see the implied volatility drop from 42% closer to these back months. You can see the back months here are trading around 37%. These are going to drop too, but they're not going to drop nearly as much as September.

[4:17:03] September. and the weekly cycle and all these weekly cycles for that matter are going to drop more dramatically from an implied volatility standpoint than these further dated ones. These further dated cycles are built with exttrinsic value

[4:17:17] made up with a lot of time value. There is still implied volatility exposure but the implied volatility number doesn't really change much here. You can see 38 37% across the board. These cycles back here will have 2 3 4 5 six earnings

[4:17:31] announcements within them. So this single earnings announcement isn't as affected in these back months here but it is affecting these front months here the weekly cycles. So we know that uh if we look at other products that have

[4:17:44] we look at other products that have already reported like Intel it's a good volatility which so this might not be the best example but uh 89% 88 80s 80s 80s across the board. So you're seeing a kind of a flatline implied volatility

[4:17:59] and even in Microsoft you can see it. So Microsoft just reported earnings Microsoft just reported earnings yesterday and you see 35% in August, 33% September, 33, 35, 34. So all of these are baseline. Now this is what I'm

[4:18:11] referring to when we look at projected volatility crushes after earnings announcements. So you can see September and beyond there's a percentage point difference at most between these cycles now. But you look at Amazon and you can

[4:18:26] now. But you look at Amazon and you can see 42% 39 40 39 38 37 36. So these are going to drop probably to 35 uh if I were to guess just because it's 2 percentage points lower. I don't think this is going to go into the 20s. It's

[4:18:40] still an equity with plenty of volatility. So I think 35% is a fair estimate for the September drop in volatility and uh the one day we don't we're going to get all this exttrinsic value tomorrow regardless of the implied

[4:18:54] volatility reading. So 35% is where I put my uh theoretical analysis on the analysis tab. But just wanted to walk through that really quickly to ensure that you know that you can estimate these IV crushes pretty easily with

[4:19:10] different expiration cycles by just assuming that all of the expirations are going to drop to a flatline number like we're seeing in Microsoft already. So I Uh some people when they're setting up diagonal spreads or crab trades or

[4:19:24] calendars, they like to go uh you know slightly in the money. I like to go at the money just because it's a cheaper cost if I'm wrong. I still get that delta move on the way up if I'm directionally right. And really the main

[4:19:37] cost down in case Amazon drops like crazy. I don't want to have a huge loss on my hand. Uh so I went with the at the money September and I generally go to the expected move orange bar here, brownish bar here uh for the short

[4:19:53] options that I'm selling. So that's exactly what I did in the 1day cycle. I exactly what I did in the 1day cycle. I went to the 255 creating a 15 point wide range here between 240 and 255 and then I had a symmetrical wing I had to buy to

[4:20:06] define the risk up at 270. So I've got the 240 255 270 call crab trade where it's ultimately a butterfly, but I take that long option and I push it out to September to inventory delta and get rid of that V crush that we're certainly

[4:20:21] going to see in this near-term cycle. So if we go to the analysis curve mode, we can see my theoretical P&L here. We've got this butterfly looking spread with the long option out in September, the short components in the weekly, and the

[4:20:35] long defining risk component here to make sure that my max loss is my debit paid. I was filled on this trade. It's actually working out well so far up 50 cents. I was filled for 915. So we're going to come back to that value 9:15 in

[4:20:49] a bit. But as you can see, the raw value of the option itself was trading for about $1,300. I reduced cost basis down to $900 with just the sale of the short option. If Amazon chops around here or even sells off, I'll be able to close

[4:21:03] the one-day components and roll out to August most likely and get into a diagonal trade uh and continue to reduce basis. these options here. Uh, and the

[4:21:15] fact that I paid $9 for this, the options around 250 and above, which would create a 10point wide diagonal spread since I'm long the 240 out in September and I paid $9 for the whole package. I know I can go and sell this

[4:21:28] 250 strike in August and pick up some more premium. Even if Amazon drops, this option will still probably be trading for $200 $300. If Amazon drops like five points, 10 points, uh we'll have to see what it's trading for in the morning,

[4:21:42] but that's going to be my defensive mechanic. If Amazon drops, I keep the September long. I get rid of the one day options that are going to be worthless, and then I roll into a 10point wide diagonal spread here. But I'm only going

[4:21:55] to do that if I can pick up like a dollar or $2 for the short option. If we see Amazon fall dramatically, I'll just leave it. I'll be long the long call out in September. We'll see if we get a reversal and then maybe if we see we

[4:22:07] start to see a recovery, then I will resell an option against it. But until that happens, I'm going to be uh just looking at this 250 call and seeing what it makes sense for me to roll and turn it into a diagonal spread where I'm long

[4:22:22] September, short August, I will do just that. Let's go back to the curve analysis mode. And uh let's get rid of this option here that I have loaded up so we can just analyze the current trade I have on. So let's zoom in a little bit

[4:22:39] and give us a nice reading. So this current P&L reading is based on just today. If we were to get a continuation in Amazon all the way up to 250, I could close this for like $150 winner. Makes all the sense in the world. These short

[4:22:53] exttrinsic value until the earnings announcement actually happens. So, uh, this is just your mediocre P&L here. The second I click evaluate at July 31st,

[4:23:05] you see the P&L goes through the roof. Now, this is because when I click Now, this is because when I click evaluate at 7:31, the theoretical P&L assumes that we're at the close of 731. So, we're assuming that I got all the

[4:23:19] value out of the two shorts. this long option uh is basically worthless as well, but it's it's it's effectively saying here's your expiration P&L theoretically speaking with the remaining exttrinsic value in this 240

[4:23:33] call. But like I said, we need to drop this implied volatility from 42% down to 35% or around there because we know that even after the earnings announcement, September is going to feel some sort of volatility crush here. So, let's bring

[4:23:47] this down to 35%. Uh, this is six percentage points. 7 percentage points if you bring it down to $34.97. And all of a sudden, our P&L dropped a little bit, but we're still looking really good. I mean, this is a 15 point wide

[4:24:00] call diagonal spread that I bought for $9. So 15 points wide. If we assume that $9. So 15 points wide. If we assume that my max profit up to 255 is $1,500 my max profit up to 255 is $1,500 less my $9 debit, you've got a uh $6

[4:24:15] expected uh max profit there. However, you can see this theoretical P&L is actually more than $600, which is the difference between $1,500 less my $9 debit. And that's because my long option in September is still going to have

[4:24:30] exttrinsic value. So, if we get a move to 245 or 250, I'm going to have all of and my protective longs going to go to zero, but I'm going to have this long call that's in the money by 10 15 points and it's going to have exttrinsic value.

[4:24:46] You can see this here. If we go to September and we just look at an option, currently uh Amazon's at 238. So if we look at like the 220, the 225, we can flip this over to exttrinsic value or you can just look at the opposite side

[4:25:00] puts. You can see there is uh plenty of exttrinsic value in these options. $700 here, $800 here. So even after we factor in a 7% ball crush, if we're if we're 10

[4:25:12] 15 points in the money in the 240, we're still going to have 23 $400 of extrinsic value here. So all that to say, that is why you see a max profit or a why you see a max profit or a theoretical max profit higher than uh

[4:25:26] what we were looking at from an expiration standpoint. Because even expiration standpoint. Because even though my intrinsic value max profit is $1,500 less my debit paid, you still have to factor there's going to be

[4:25:38] exttrinsic value in the long option in September. And that's how you get this higher than $600 value here uh with the change in implied volatility. So again, call diagonal spread or call crab trade where I am buying an option out in

[4:25:54] September at the 240 strike. I'm getting out of the implied volatility crush as best I can while staying within my risk tolerance. And that's always going to be the case when you're looking at these 50 60 70-day options. They're not going to

[4:26:08] exposure to the binary event that is the earnings announcement after the close, but you'll still see a little bit of a V crush here. 42% is going to drop to 35% or somewhere around there. Uh the further out in time you go, the less

[4:26:23] option is still going to move based on delta. So the option is is still going It's going to be great if you get a rally in Amazon, but you get what you

[4:26:35] what I always say. The further out in time you go, the better off you can be if it's an earnings trade because you have less volatility crush exposure. You out and reverse if there's a sell-off. Being out 50 days is great. Being out 80

[4:26:52] days is better. Uh but it's going to cost more. So just you need to weigh these earnings announcements. I like to keep my earnings trades under $1,000. Uh just so that if something crazy happens, it's not the end of the world for this

[4:27:06] understand like maybe you're at $200, $250. If that were the case, I would go with a a calendar spread most likely where I'm buying September and selling the one day or buying August and selling the one day where you still are taking

[4:27:21] advantage of that really heightened implied volatility in the near term, but you're not putting up uh a ton of value there in the long term. So selling the the 1day options with the intention of rolling to August and the 250 strike

[4:27:35] rolling to August and the 250 strike creating a two a 240 250 long September short August call diagonal spread if I'm wrong and Amazon sells off. But the nice thing about these trades is I can make money on both of these components. If

[4:27:49] money on both of these components. If Amazon goes up from 238 to 245 or even 250, this long call is going to appreciate in value for sure. But the one days are going to expire worthless. If we get a move to here to 250 or 247

[4:28:03] or 245, these options are still going to lose all their value and I'm going to be able to uh keep that as my cost basis reducing factor against the long option. trade. If you wanted to though, you could get out of these uh short

[4:28:17] components and get get rid of the long, especially after you extract all the value in the shorts here. And you could extend the trade if you wanted to by buying back the 1day components and still going out to August. But in that

[4:28:30] particular case, if we got a rally in Amazon, I wouldn't go to the 250. I would just go aggressive. I would go up to the 260 or 270 because these options, if they're trading for 34, $500, I want to make my diagonal spread as wide as

[4:28:43] possible in that scenario. where on a downside defensive move, I'm going to make it more narrow and bring my short option closer to my cost basis to really help defend the trade versus offensively rolling into a wider diagonal spread if

[4:28:57] there's a rally. But again, if we get a rally in Amazon tomorrow, I'm probably just going to close the trade, call it a day, and then wait for other price extremes uh after the fact. So, here's the visual for you. bought the 240 call

[4:29:10] in September, 50 days out, sold two of the 255s in the one day and I bought the 270 long call to define the risk and make sure that my max risk is the debit paid. You can see here I want this thing to slide through that 255 level.

[4:29:24] Anywhere in that range is going to be just fine because those two options are of the day tomorrow. And my long option out in September is absolutely going to gain value on an up move. But again, if we get a neutral move or a down move,

[4:29:38] I'm going to look to buy that buy back the one day components, roll it out to August, and probably get to that 240 250 call diagonal spread. I'll be able to reduce basis even further from $9 to maybe $7 or somewhere around there. But

[4:29:52] me know what you think in the YouTube chat in the comments. But we're not done yet. We got Arrow coming up next, so stay tuned.

[4:30:08] put on quite a few positions, so we're going to start with going through the portfolio, see what we got going in there. There's another trade idea that I one of the ones that we put on earlier this week. So, I hope everybody else is

[4:30:20] doing well. I know we've seen so much volatility in this market. This market in terms of direction can change on a dime. So, the sentiment is really sent So, with that being said, we can go ahead jump right into the Tasty

[4:30:32] positions. Um I don't know if I have a favorite position in the portfolio so far. Uh something that I took off earlier today uh was this Micron bit of a recovery there. But this one felt like I was playing roulette, right?

[4:30:46] recovery and some of these memory names was going to last. And all we were looking for was just a little bit of like a counter trend kind of pop back to some of those names catching a little bit of a bid there. But we ended up

[4:30:59] spread. And of course, with such a volatile underlying, I was looking at selling a defined risk. And I think I'm going to be taking that same approach today, considering the fact that I think we have a pretty mixed bag, right? I

[4:31:12] mean, this sentiment legitimately can shift so quickly. I mean, at at the close yesterday, everybody thought, you know, the the world was going under and then I mean, that completely changes in less than 24 hours. So, I don't think

[4:31:25] sentiment, how sensitive it is, can be understated. So, we took off the Micron positions. Uh we have an out of the money put spread on QQQ. A little bit of long delta there. And then today, this morning, we also bought a 660 put that

[4:31:40] expires at about 8 days on QQQ. I thought it was a decent idea given the entire rally we've seen all day so far today. So, we wanted to get on a little on the out of the money put spread to capitalize on any other further moves to

[4:31:54] the upside that we might see. Uh so, that's going to be the cues. Uh then the little bit on the day. Out of the money put spread there. Sold the 135s. Bought the 130s. Again, slower moving product, continuing to creep down, down just a

[4:32:09] quarter of a percent on the day. And I mean, really not much to say on SpaceX. interested and happy whenever we can start to consolidate or start to get a these things. I mean, the implied volatility is pretty high. It still

[4:32:23] feels like we're in this kind of price discovery mode on SpaceX. So, I think a kind of figuring out, you know, what SpaceX might want to do and really just these underlyings because every stock that you trade, every industry, you'll

[4:32:36] have uh you'll be able to get a feel for its kind of personality. And I don't SpaceX. So, we'll be patient. Uh bid, we continue to slide to the downside. So, that's kind of how the

[4:32:48] we do have the Google position on. This right where we need it right now. overall position is down a little bit, got to just have patience on your side. Um, let Theta pretty much do its work.

[4:33:02] collecting additional 50 cents of credit. So, we have about 280 worth of credit on this Google position so far. And that's the only earnings trade that we're going to have Apple today after the bell. Um, I'm excited about that one

[4:33:16] not going to be trading it ahead of earnings. Uh but if we do get some type the upside or downside, I think this is something that we can trade post today how we're trading at alltime highs and we're pulling back on the day. And

[4:33:31] position to be in. So with that being said, we'll see what Apple wants to do. said, we'll see what Apple wants to do. It's down almost 2% on the day um after yesterday. So a lot of volatility in there. Implied volatility is up and a

[4:33:43] looking at, a lot of different names that we could be trading. And quickly as here, you can see we're trading at about 1794 right now. Those pops in volatility

[4:33:55] current market environment. But with that being said, volatility is still a little bit higher than what we've seen, you know, at the low end this summer. So with that being said, relative VA is still kind of up and the market is

[4:34:08] seeing a little bit of a shake up. We were looking at SPY yesterday. NASDAQ has been the industry that has been the leader direction, you know, direction-wise. And yesterday was the first day where we've actually seen a

[4:34:21] decent amount of weakness into SPY or the S&P 500. Of course, we're recovering to do is selling an out- of the money call spread on SPY. Look, I know we already we already have some long delta on QQQ, and I know we sold an out- of

[4:34:35] this week. We ended up taking that one off yesterday for a little bit of a profit, but we're going to throw this one back on because because of the fact off of the lows. So, we're going to see what we can snag over here. Going to

[4:34:47] start in the 22 days left till expiration. Uh not something that I want see if we're going to start maybe consolidating a little bit here. Maybe give ourselves a little bit of room to breathe and let the trade work. Um, so

[4:35:02] till expiration, and then we'll also look at the 50 days. Uh, but let's start in the 22. Uh, we could look at selling the 730s, maybe buying the 725s. credit. We could go in a little bit closer, maybe sell the 735s,

[4:35:18] maybe buying the 730s, that's going to give us a $137. Not too much meat on the bone here. I know there's not going to be too much premium because we are Maybe we can go out to 50 days left to expiration. And this one's going to be

[4:35:31] interesting because this expires in the September 18th expiry. So, we would have to have a pretty bearish outlook. The market would around these highs or seeing a little bit more of a a little bit more downside

[4:35:46] that far, we're going to be able to collect a little bit more credit. This collect a little bit more credit. This 730 is going for 730 725 is going for So, honestly, these premiums aren't even looking too hot, to be honest. We might

[4:36:00] have to look to to pay for a debit on one of these if if we're not going to be able to collect an additional credit. Uh because again, we're we're out 50 days because again, we're we're out 50 days left to expiration, right? Uh 56% pop,

[4:36:12] left to expiration, right? Uh 56% pop, 80 81% 83% P50. A$150 is attractive. Um underlying. You know what I'm saying? I mean, SPY right now is trading at 739, 740. I mean, we're looking at selling the 735, so we're not really giving

[4:36:27] the 735, so we're not really giving ourselves, you know, too much too much room. Um, but I mean, the expected move to the upside is going to be 27 772 773.

[4:36:39] Uh, the downside 7078. So, I mean, that's a pretty wide range, you know, looking at it from volatility terms. But let's look to sell the 760s. Um, maybe buy the 765s. That's going to give us a $185. I don't

[4:36:54] That's going to give us a $185. I don't hate that. Right. 65% pop. 77 75 76 77% P50. Maybe we could do something in there. $185. 50 days left till expiration. One more time. Let's go. Let's go check back

[4:37:08] inside this 22 days cycle. Uh just to make sure we have what we're comfortable with or what we might want to put on. I mean 2 204 here. We are still pretty mean 2 204 here. We are still pretty close to the underlying. It is a 64% pop

[4:37:23] position. So it's nothing too aggressive. Max loss would be 300. Uh let's see if we move this a little bit closer. 745 750s. of credit. So we'd be risking about half of the credit that we receive on this

[4:37:37] trade. It's $5 wide. We'd be collecting about 250. So our max risk would be we could do to get on a little bit more short delta here. We we do actually have to stick with the 22 days left till expiration. given the volatility that

[4:37:51] selling the 750s. Uh, most likely buying the 755s. We're going to collect $2 in credit. Uh, that's going to leave us with a $300 potential max loss. That's Best case scenario, if we expire above 750 by expiration, which is in 22 days,

[4:38:06] we'll be able to reap the entire max profit of 2011. This only taken about what's nice about being able to collect a little bit more while V is slightly up just because it's going to reduce that overall max risk if we have on a defined

[4:38:20] we're going to actually try and send this one through. This one's on SPY. We got an instill at 202. Um and you know, this is going to kind condor a little bit playing with the two indices, right? We got some long delta

[4:38:34] indices, right? We got some long delta on in QQQ uh where we had sold the 685 delta on in SPY where we're selling the 750 calls. So we have a little bit of long and short delta on and I don't mind you know mixing up the portfolio like

[4:38:48] where maybe we want to manage risk or leave the other side of the trade on and then maybe we get a little bit more directionality in the other direction uh with QQQ or SPY, whatever it's going to

[4:39:00] be. Uh, but with that being said, we have Micron at the top of the portfolio. here. And I was really fighting myself on if I want to get on some short delta little bit more short delta in things like Intel or SanDisk or Micron. And you

[4:39:17] might even do that right now. Uh, I think it was Intel that has earnings later on this month. Uh, it's looking like Intel is out of the way. Let's double check. Micron. Micron's going to be September 22nd.

[4:39:30] Um, and if we look at SanDisk, SNDK, that one's going to be having earnings Micron again, we could choose to trade that or we could also trade, we could also choose to trade Intel, uh, which is going to be INTC. So, maybe we sell an

[4:39:45] out of the money call spread here, or we could buy a cheaper put. You know, given the volatility we've seen in these names, you know, I wouldn't be too option if we could get some little downside action. So, I think we're going

[4:39:59] to go ahead and go with maybe Micron. I think I'm going to have to I might have like Intel. And I think it's just going to come down to preference. But let's premiums. Let's let's start at the 22 days left to expiration. Uh these are

[4:40:14] some very expensive contracts. I forget how expensive these are. So, if we were to buy something, it would have to be pretty shortdated, and that's not type of volatility we see in these names.

[4:40:26] So maybe we get on another uh maybe call spread to the downside. It's a lot more right? If you want to buy the call at the money with 22 days left to expiration, that's going to cost you a little over 8 grand just for buying one

[4:40:39] call option that expires in 22 days from now. So, uh, we have to be a little bit picky about how we engage in this market. I mean, we could do the one contract for eight grand, but if that thing moves against us, boy, I'm going

[4:40:51] slide me some of his dollars in his portfolio into mine because I mean, these things are so volatile. Um, we can get a $5 wide here. Maybe sell the 1,000 strike buying the 105. That's going to give you a$122. Let's go to 980, 9.85.

[4:41:07] That's going to give us a $185. Maybe we sell the 950s. Let's go in a little bit more. Maybe we sell the 950s by the 955. That's going to give us a $155. $166 is a minimum that I really want to collect on this trade. I know we got a

[4:41:20] few minutes left. Let's see if we can get this one through. 9:30 935. That's going to be $1.77. That's a little bit better. 935. 935. I would love to sell calls beneath that $1,000 level. So, anything below

[4:41:36] little bit more attractive. Um, so we could even do 930, 935. We could do 925 930. Collect an additional 5 cents a

[4:41:48] 930. Collect an additional 5 cents a credit there. 8.65 930. us a little bit of breathing room. Uh were trading at 935. So unless we reverse this entire downside move we've

[4:42:01] seen this week, we could squeeze something little out of this micron selling the 925s, buying the 930s, and we're going to send that one through. So, we're actually going to get get on a little bit of short delta in SPY and a

[4:42:14] little bit of short delta in Micron. So, now the portfolio is looking like an out- of the money call spread on Micron. We took off the out of the money put little bit of long delta line. Now that we're getting a little bit of a pop,

[4:42:26] we're going to flip that position a little bit there. Uh, and then QQQ still sold the out of the money put spread today. We bought that put that expires in 8 days at the 660 strike. Um, and then lastly, we sold another call spread

[4:42:39] now. So, things are looking pretty good. Maybe we continue to sell off a little bit from here, but good lord, what a rally. We rallied over 1,000 points from yesterday's low, um, you know, all the way to today's high. So, the ranges that

[4:42:51] we've seen in these markets can't be understated, that's for sure. I just want to take a quick look at NASDAQ before we head off here. Uh, this rally looks like it continues so far, right?

[4:43:04] um not crushing volatility as much as I thought it would, but at the same time, would have expected volatility to pop a know what type of downside action we need to see in the market to to to

[4:43:16] legitimately see us above 20 on VIX, but it does feel like, you know, for the for going to have to have a soft towards like 24,000, 25,000, 26,000. It sounds so far-fetched until the market makes a 1,000 point move within 12 hours, right?

[4:43:32] eye on these markets. A lot of volatility, a lot of opportunity. Uh, the same time. I am excited about these short delta positions that we do have on here. We're going to manage them to the best of our ability, our ability.

[4:43:44] best of our ability, our ability. They're both defined risk trades. So, um, we'll be sitting, you know, a little bit more comfortable on those ones. And real quick. Dell was another one that

[4:43:56] one. We're still trading at all-time highs. The only reason why I haven't gotten any short delta on this one yet is because I believe Trump was saying something about Dell and this man has given out so many callouts this year and

[4:44:08] they've usually came to fruition. So I don't really want to fade that sentiment even if it comes to be true or not. That's one of the reasons why I've stepped aside on Dell. Super high implied volatility. Um very overextended

[4:44:20] to the upside in my opinion. I know we've kind of just been consolidating uh June so far, but we're going to keep an eye on it. We're going to keep it in the watch list. Uh, another one was IBM. Had

[4:44:32] think we're going to stay hands off for now. Uh, but with that being said, guys, trades of the day is going to be some short delta on in Micron and then a little bit more short delta on in SPY. Uh, but with that being said, guys, hope

[4:44:44] manage these trades and we we will be back with more. Uh, but be sure to stay next. Be sure to stay tuned and we'll catch you guys here in a quick moment. catch you guys here in a quick moment. Peace.

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[4:46:15] everybody. We have a very exciting guest about to join us for for an interview today. We have Chris Vermuan, founder and CEO of The Technical Traders where he does all kinds of great work. He has all all types of valuable insights to

[4:46:27] Chris, how you doing today? What's going on? yeah, thanks for everything. >> Love this love this camera setup you got you, too. We we could take some notes on that. Um, so, uh, yeah, off air, we we

[4:46:42] broader market and, you know, it's usually, especially, I mean, even on this show, we'll follow to do it. It's it's spy, it's QQQ, but you were saying about about IWM right now and some high conviction there. What what do you see

[4:46:54] in IWM that isn't going to manifest in in spy QQ? >> Yeah. Well, I I I generally the market moves together, right? So, if if IWM goes up, we're probably going to see SPY and QQQ rally as well. But what's really

[4:47:07] lot of de-risking, a lot of money moving away from kind of AI semiconductors. selling and fear over the past few trading sessions. The Fed, I think, this week. And now I think we're going to see money start to flow back in.

[4:47:22] There's some clarity of what's going on. Rates probably going to go higher, but whether higher rates usually isn't the greatest for the stock market, when comfortable. And that's why I think we're seeing a good part of the money

[4:47:36] the rally taking place today with the NASDAQ up about one or sorry 3%. But the IWM has had a very nice move. It's had a nice controlled pullback over the past month or so. It's at critical support levels. It's at a critical 50-day moving

[4:47:50] average and really it's having a a cluster of different time cycles. They're having cycle lows at the same time and all of that is boating well for a strong rally going forward. Now, based on the IWM chart, based on a couple

[4:48:03] different time frames, it shows that we could see IWM, if the stock market gets a bid here and starts to go up, IWM could go to about uh $340 per share, could go to about uh $340 per share, which is about a 20% 16% rally going

[4:48:17] really nice move and obviously there's 2x there's 3x ETFs based on the IWM. And of course, if you're a small cap trader, if the IWM has a buy signal, you can go focus on individual stocks if you really want to get a lot more leverage out of

[4:48:32] that as well. So, I like the small cap space because it's had a very controlled pullback. Hasn't been huge distribution selling. It's just people kind of took their their finger off the buy button temporarily and it's just faded down and

[4:48:44] >> Yeah, I I like that thesis. And you know, something that we've talked about that if you if you look at, you know, the the equal weighted S&P 500 or these other products where there's not as much emphasis on tech, we are seeing things

[4:48:57] market. So capital is there. It's just rotating into some of these names and and that rotation into small caps certainly seems very valid. Um I would >> Sorry. Yeah, we've had we've had a lot of fear recently and money's been

[4:49:09] pouring out of tech. It's been going into the equal weighted as you mentioned like RSP is an ETF that is equal weighted and also like SPYD which is the S&P 500 dividend stocks right they have actually been pushing up and rallying

[4:49:22] very strong so money has been nervous and that is a sign that the market may everybody runs from tech piles into boring dividend stocks usually that stock market rally and dividends pull back which we are seeing today money's

[4:49:37] moving out of dividend stocks and piling into tech and growth. >> Yeah, I love it. And I would uh I would I would parlay that into uh if you you over really the past two years and in the first Trump administration as well

[4:49:50] is is divergence between uh perceived economic stability and the performance market. You're obviously a very technical guy as it pertains to stocks. So when the macroeconomic environment and the price chart are telling you two

[4:50:02] which one to trust? Well, the the number one thing you you really do have to trust is is follow the money. You know, I have I've blown up accounts many many years ago following and trading fundamentals the strongest

[4:50:15] growing stocks quarter after quarter and they still blew up when we went into a recession. So, fundamental data is great when it's in line with the trend, but can have a great story, but the stock price keeps falling or vice versa. Great

[4:50:28] story, but the stock keeps getting beat up. So our whole point here as traders and investors is to own things going up in value or at least in the direction we want. And so price is the number one thing. And but you can't just follow

[4:50:41] price. I do follow three things. I follow price, time, and sentiment. I give the market a three-dimension look. So I can tell if it is a bounce or is it the start of a new rally. And understanding all of those things gives

[4:50:53] you a different lens to to look at the markets from and to have confidence to be like we need to own this or we need to get out of this before it gets ugly. valuable. >> It it's price, time, and sentiment. So

[4:51:07] price is obviously every indicator pretty much runs off price. Uh so it's just the same information regurgitated. But then you need time. There's time got economic data that comes out monthly, quarterly, annually, all of

[4:51:20] that. We've got earnings that uh revenue that goes from paychecks into the stock market every week, every two weeks, every month. There's all these cycles time cycles and we've got some of them aligning as and bottoming as of right

[4:51:33] now, which is why I like the IWM here for a move because I think we're about to see another wave of money moving into the market and and sentiment has just again. And I think we're going to see money move back in to try to generate

[4:51:47] sentiment. Sorry, sentiment is important. Every asset is connected in some way. If one sector comes down, there's another one going up. If the stock market's going down, we could see precious metals or a currency moving up,

[4:52:00] right? Money is always moving from one asset class to the next. And when we know where money is moving, which other assets it's moving to or from, and how much of it is going, it's almost like playing poker and looking at the other

[4:52:12] know what they're thinking and doing with their cards or with their money and that tells us you know what the overall bias is and the sentiment and so allows us to ride the coattails of the big money flows of the market. So those

[4:52:25] three things give you a very interesting dynamic look at what's going on. And there's about 5 to 12 kind of cycles and waves that roll through the stock market every year. And just like a surfer floating out past the waves, you know,

[4:52:37] are they waiting for? They're waiting for a set of waves to roll in, right? So I look for these bigger than normal waves and we just wait and we hop on to when you get on something strong, the nice thing about it is you know when

[4:52:51] in profits, you can move your stops up. Mentally prepare saying, "Hey, I think this is over. That was fun. We'll have to wait for the next uh opportunity." analogies. Whoever had the uh the the poker analogy, surfer analogy parlay, go

[4:53:05] ahead and collect on that ticket. [laughter] Very impressive. Um shifting little bit into uh into precious metals. You mentioned you have some strong be curious to to see because something we talk about often on air, how what's

[4:53:18] what's your process for determining which of these metals to get involved together? >> Well, the reality is, you know, just they all stocks pretty much go up and down. Just some go up and down faster

[4:53:32] than the others. The precious metals complex is the same. If you own gold, silver, or miners, and in some of the other ones, if you want platinum, trade. It's just some move percentage-

[4:53:44] wise more than others, right? So, it really comes down to your risk, right? I I love gold because it's big, it's slow moving, you can put more money to it and not wake up being down like 15 or 20%. Uh, silver is great because it it's fast

[4:53:57] moving. So, I I like to have an allocation split. I've usually always been about 6040, 60% silver, 40% physical gold. When I believe we are in a new bull market for precious metals and miners, I I generally get pretty

[4:54:11] heavy into individual miners because I want lots of potential uh to the upside. Uh so it's it's it really comes down to where you are in your investment style, where you put your money. Right now we

[4:54:24] actually moved out of gold and silver. We got out of gold gold about 5100. We got out of silver at 113. And now we're waiting for it to figure out if it is bottom and then we're going to get repositioned back in. But gold and

[4:54:38] silver actually still look very weak right here. They're on the verge of a pretty big move to the downside. Now, the Fed has turned the dollar around as of yesterday or the previous session here and it's given a little bid to gold

[4:54:50] and silver, but the reality is the dollar is actually in a new bull market based on long-term analysis and precious metals are actually in a bare market. these trends are, we're actually going to see gold and silver move sharply

[4:55:04] lower, and we're going to eventually see the dollar either firm up or start to that I think is going to go against a lot of people's kind of wants and expectations when it comes to the metal space. That's very interesting. Yeah,

[4:55:18] shown here. And that leads me right into my next question. How do you uh just in general, how do you determine whether something is actual an actual confirmed breakout, a confirmed fall-off? And does that process change when you're talking

[4:55:32] about commodities as opposed to a traditional stock or ETF type product? equities market, I have I have a lot of things that kind of have to come together to give it a buy. But again, the key thing here is it has to be in a

[4:55:46] uptrend. Uh generally has to be a long-term uptrend. be underlying has to be in a bull market phase for equities could be could be the index could be a sector could be an individual stock and then the short-term price action also

[4:55:58] has to be trending up. So trend is critical on both time frames. When it comes to time we need to make sure it's in a a phase an upward bias in terms of different time cycles. And then when it comes to sentiment we want to make sure

[4:56:11] money is flowing into the if it's for equities into that asset class. Right? We want to see money moving into growth stocks. We want to see money moving even into um you know big tech all all of those those type of things not so much

[4:56:25] um dividend stocks utilities usually if those are underperforming it's actually a bullish sign for the stock market when utilities struggle usually money is going there so we like to make sure everything is in line we've got I call

[4:56:37] it risk on meaning people are willing to put risk into the market into equities to own it and it's for commodities it's a little bit different because It's well I really when it comes to commodities look more so at time cycles, price

[4:56:52] action and momentum for those because it just doesn't have the quite the same where money is flowing and which assets. Uh so it again it always comes down to there's some supporting things going to

[4:57:06] frames in the direction that you want it to go because if one's off the other one will help support it. It's not just going to go against you really hard. yeah, I guess last question here. We got about two minutes to go. Um, what uh

[4:57:21] where where outside of I mean IWM non-withstanding, but are there any jumping out to you right now for a clean technical setup or otherwise? >> Well, I have I have been looking at the SpaceX uh play. I mean, we played the

[4:57:34] long side. We got out of it uh a couple days into it. We moved aside. I'm I'm type of bearish flag over the next couple of weeks. I think it's going to drift higher up and to the right. And if it does, I think it's going to generate

[4:57:48] an amazing short opportunity or to buy an inverse ETF. I'm I'm looking to benefit from from it falling in price. It sounds terrible, but I think it's going to be a very good trade. It was the most lucrative, most interesting

[4:58:00] IPO. Like, it was orchestrated unbelievably well to get almost everybody involved in it. I think it's going to leave a bad taste in most people's mouths because it's going to be their first IPO. They're all underwater

[4:58:13] and if it does drop, I have a downside target of of SpaceX to about $94. That's that's something I'm keeping my eyes on, but it needs to unfold, which means we could see IWM and the stock market have a bit of a bounce and rally for a week

[4:58:28] or two. And if it the market doesn't get a lot of traction, then I think SpaceX will drift it up as well. And then we can actually play the downward move and we're at a really critical point here to see how the equities market plays out

[4:58:42] and um and SpaceX could be one of those really interesting plays uh to the downside just because it's it's such a unique play and it's mass psychology. The whole world is in there. I find when the the general public has piled into

[4:58:55] the same thing, it becomes a very strong play. I find it very predictable and so so far it's done exactly what we've been expecting and now we're looking for the >> Yeah, I love that. feels like uh you know it feels like it's not a contrarian

[4:59:09] thing to to say short SpaceX right now amid the slide, but it definitely is. waiting for the bounce in SpaceX, right? That's traditionally what you would hear SpaceX here. But yeah, there certainly could be a lot more bottom to fall out

[4:59:21] of it. We we have no history. We have no support. We don't know what SpaceX is >> Yeah, for sure. Well, that's the problem with IPOs. If you go look at the last with IPOs. If you go look at the last 100, 50% of them are down dramatically.

[4:59:33] running. I mean, it's perfect. It's SpaceX. It's a black chart with nothing floating in space. We have no traction right. Well, they're telling me in my ear that that's all the time that we

[4:59:46] us today, Chris. That's Christopher Muan, everybody. The technical traders.com. Go check them out. They do wonderful work over there. That's all go to a short break and we will be back in 90 to 120 seconds. You're watching

[4:59:58] in 90 to 120 seconds. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[5:03:31] July 30th, 2026. You're watching Tasty Live. This is Futures Power half hour. Today, uh Errol Coleman will be joining me momentarily here as we look at what's an absolutely remarkable stock market rebound following yesterday's full

[5:03:44] helping full serving of pain uh both for bonds and equities. But hey, Microsoft earnings, Liupold liquidated, situational awareness goes down and all weighed down or at least weighing down this market flying free today. Micron up

[5:04:00] nearly 18%, SanDisk up over 20% here. semis a healthy 7% 8% bounce now your NASDAQ futures up three full% here so have it right back here today it's a good time as ever I think to bring back

[5:04:15] our friend Errol Coleman to the show we got 30 minutes with him what a market >> brother Chris I mean that's an understatement very impressive I mean the last hour of market open yesterday uh was an extremely aggressive selloff

[5:04:32] to the downside side uh that I'm not sure if anybody saw coming. Um and on seen, we pretty much recouped that entire downside move that we had seen of just chugging along. You know, a long time some other memory names as well.

[5:04:47] So, extremely volatile market, but as you know, volatility is a trader's best market gives us. >> The volatility today while coming in, over the course of the session. Uh yeah, noteworthy. The Nasdaq did retake the

[5:05:01] highs that we had prefy yesterday and it got hit harder than anything else. So, this is a weird market though. It's not broad participation. I think it's just worth noting out here. While the triple Q's, the NASDAQ futures are up. You

[5:05:13] could go to your QQW, it's only up by 6/10 of a percent here. Uh, it's not great. You go to RSP, the equal weighted S&P 500, it's off by half a percent there's a little bit more rotation coming back in at the moment. But either

[5:05:28] way, it's the breath here. It's still more than half the stocks in the market are down today than up. So, this really is all about the uh beaten down July names, the memory names, the AI names. Those are the ones that are coming back.

[5:05:40] here. go ahead. >> Does this not remind you of FTX? >> Remember when FTX went down? Crypto is getting hammered. It's getting hammered.

[5:05:53] It's getting hammered. It's getting hammered. FTX comes. That's the low, >> Crypto starts going back up, right? >> It's like the market was hunting for Sam Bankman Freed and I can't help but put these puzzle pieces together.

[5:06:06] >> Citadel purchases their book. Come on. After 2 days after calling for a hike that never materializes, the market was hunting Leopold's names. And now that he's dead, it's almost like, okay, we can go back

[5:06:19] >> Yeah. >> It's nuts. No, I mean I mean I don't you feel about the overall market? I mean what do you what do you keep an eye on? It just feels like the sentiment is so sensitive, Chris. Uh right and and I

[5:06:33] got to ask you what what is the metric that we keep an eye on outside of the volatility that it's showing. Are you looking at interest rates? Are you eyes to? >> I think we have to pay attention to

[5:06:47] there two drivers in this market, Errol. They're taking folks steering the bus. It's rates and it's earnings. Earnings have won out so far today. And maybe the >> Y >> something like that usually screams

[5:07:03] capitulation like a fund blowing up or something. Hindsight 2020. That's true. go down. For those that don't aren't aware of this fund, it's kind of have like a high place in the finit zeitgeist. Uh guy leaves Anthropic to

[5:07:17] start his own AI fund. The fund goes from I think like 2.4 4 billion to 24 billion in the span of two years. >> How was that even real life? That's >> He makes all the right bets the past two years. He looks at all the bottlenecks,

[5:07:32] on the show. Certainly we're know we didn't make the money that he did. But uh he he hit all those trades. Yeah. >> And kept levering up, levering up, he's going to walk away. Someone did the math. He'll walk away with probably like

[5:07:45] a $900 million parachute here. Even after returning investor funds, after returning investor funds, investors sugation,

[5:08:04] today. Where's sentiment in this market right now? I like to use the AI survey. bears than bulls right now. The week ending yesterday, July 29th, 42% bears, 31% bulls. I'll call it 27% neutral. It's a little bit more bullish than it

[5:08:20] was the previous week. A little bit less bearish, but broadly speaking, the bears bearish, but broadly speaking, the bears are still the ones with the upper hand. especially after we've been consolidating at our highs, you know,

[5:08:32] pretty much the entire summer months. I mean, we finally have FOMC out of the with the capex and these earnings, which we've seen with, you know, Meta today you know, on top of that, we have, you know, Apple earnings coming out tonight.

[5:08:45] So definitely a little bit of a change of character, change of behavior there. Um, but I mean is is is that the story? Uh, especially for for the earnings, is that going to be top of mind? Chris,

[5:08:58] matters. Microsoft yesterday does less capex and shows that they can make money when they do it and [laughter] they go and like the market's rewarding them >> And maybe maybe that's also an important juncture, right? Where throughout this

[5:09:11] earning cycle have we seen this far where it's where Tesla free cash flow negative, Google free cash flow negative for the first time in its history, >> Uh you get to Microsoft and all of a sudden, listen, if Microsoft can figure

[5:09:24] out how to turn a profit on this stuff, chances are other people can too. a new company. It's not particularly seen as adaptive. It's a little bit of a slower mover. Of course, it is a it is an older company. It's not an IBM as it

[5:09:38] Yeah. >> Uh it's a nice sentiment re rebound, but like what's the worst case scenario today? Amazon and Apple are like, "Yeah, negative now and we expect it to be

[5:09:50] That would really hurt the market again. And all of a sudden, the earnings bounce more on rates going into the second second half, last trading day of the >> Not great. >> Yeah, it's

[5:10:03] about sentiment though, real quick? >> Of course. Yeah. uh a AI survey here. One of the metrics that we look at is when there is uh in excess of about a 17% swing 16% swing >> in sentiment over the course of 3

[5:10:17] months. We've already seen that over the course of the past 2 weeks per AI. 2 weeks ago uh the number of bulls in this market were 45%, bears were 33. Now it's market were 45%, bears were 33. Now it's 31 bulls, bears 42. So, we're talking

[5:10:31] about a 14% swing from bulls out of there and about a 9% swing into bears. >> I mean, what's the catalyst for just for such a swing in such a short amount of time? How does a sentiment shift that quickly, Chris?

[5:10:44] >> Usually price. But when sentiment does shift that quickly, Errol, in that short a time frame, within a 3-month window, it usually means that you're coming into >> People got too bearish too fast, >> right?

[5:10:56] Um, so keeping that in mind with what we saw in SMH the other day, I want to be rebound because that's certainly my disposition. Yesterday was not fun. >> 28,178 is yesterday's high. We already

[5:11:09] moved below the low just ever so briefly. We could get a nice key reversal here, a bullish engulfing bar. Move below yesterday's low, move above above the high, you get your key reversal. S&P's not there, Arrol, but

[5:11:22] let let me take a step back. I've been talking a lot. How are you approaching this rebound today? Is it a deadcat bounce to trade? Were you already long going into it? How did yesterday impact your positioning? Because I could easily

[5:11:35] see a number of folks who looked at yesterday's chart and said, "Throw in the towel and now feel like utter crud >> today with this absolute ripper." volatility again over the last 24 hours kind of forced some of us to do some

[5:11:50] opportunities because we're looking at a completely different picture than what we were looking at just yesterday, less than 24 hours ago. Uh but I mean, is things just go back to kind of where they were? You know, I'm not too sure

[5:12:03] actually, Chris. Um I'm not too sure. I mean, this is an extremely rally off the little bit more confidence there. I got to say, I did add a little bit of short delta by selling some out of the money calls. Not that I'm necessarily bearish,

[5:12:17] don't know. Well, that's a that's a pretty big move to the downside and Are we just going to are we just going to act like nothing happened and then we creep back to the highs? Maybe we start consolidating at the highs again. Maybe

[5:12:29] we start going back to all-time highs. I'm not too sure. Uh but in the short term, you know, personally, I'm a little bit more bearish to neutral. Not to say downside and this is just a deadcat bounce and we have more weakness to

[5:12:41] I think yesterday was the first day we had actually seen a little bit more directionality to the S&P 500, right? I think uh the NASDAQ market has been the leader in terms of direction, but uh SPY was the first time we've seen uh you

[5:12:55] know a significant or at least a meaningful downside move. So with that being said, I'm not too sure Chris, but I am positioned a little bit uh delta neutral at these highs, although we do have a lot of long and short deltas on.

[5:13:07] Um but but I think in in the in the case of uncertainty, I lean a little bit answer. I'm not sure. uh with what we've seen in the last 24 hours, it actually has me taking a little bit more of a step back to see what or how the overall

[5:13:21] events that we've seen. So, it's got me in a little bit of a days in terms of having conviction um in any one trade at least. You know, one of the one of the reasons why I'm so focused on uh on this Leo

[5:13:36] Ashen Brener's, you know, fund liquidation here is because basically now that he's out of the game is just having a rip roaring kind of day, >> Um the the block actually just put out a block is a crypto uh media firm. They

[5:13:50] how this is extending into the crypto space. Some of the names that he had on his 13F like iron, which is we know a favorite around here, uh 51.4 4 million could go to Riot >> Cryptominer, that's up 24% here. Uh, Bit

[5:14:07] Deer, for example, that's up 25%. Hive, I mean, name one. Hive digital up 19% right now. So, it's not just the chips. Micron, SanDisk, Micron's up 18% right Micron, SanDisk, Micron's up 18% right now. Holy cow. SanDisk up 24%

[5:14:21] >> today, which granted it's not it's only back to where it was on Tuesday this the same week. That's that's what I'm saying. The sentiment can shift. so been so crazy in both directions. I'd have I had the opportunity this week to

[5:14:35] get on short and long positions in these memory names within the same exact week. memory names within the same exact week. So um it's crazy. Uh it's it's volatile out there. It's volatile ter I don't have anything

[5:14:49] still nursing a position here in western digital which you got there color me s color me surprised because when yeah well it's been in for a few weeks here. >> So you can imagine when we were sitting down near uh 2 days ago at 422 I wasn't

[5:15:06] feeling so hot. >> Um but you know we're not going to we're Here's the problem that I'm facing right now. I still take a loss on this even though we're above my short strike. So, I'm going to have to just make a

[5:15:18] decision tomorrow. I mean, if this is if this bounce today really has legs, we're market's going to love from Apple and Amazon tonight cuz you can't derail the >> No. >> And uh you know, in that case, maybe we

[5:15:31] get a little bit more run. I need this thing to bounce. I need this friend. >> I need a little bit of a pullback. I'm [laughter] the thing. We got the pullback and I and I almost kicked

[5:15:45] myself because we rallied on Micron and some of these memory names I think a delta on in there. >> Um and we did get the pullback. You're right. And now we're getting a pop back to the upside. So, uh maybe we get a

[5:15:57] is the volatility is there. It looks like your trade is pretty close to the money, too. So, I mean, yours can well uh go into the profit in a short Oh, yeah. You have more than enough time for the volatility on those assets.

[5:16:09] >> Just like a 600 print. Is that too much to ask? Uh, >> I don't think so. I don't think so. >> That's another 10% between friends and >> thousand points in the NASDAQ just in the last 12 hours. Chris, there nothing

[5:16:21] environment. Okay, >> I think that's fair, Harl. I appreciate yeah, that's that's kind of where the NASDAQ sits. We haven't exactly cleared we're starting to clear out most recent swing highs. There's legitimate reason

[5:16:35] to think that there's um some upside here. So, maybe some hedge trimming here. yesterday. Oh, we got pretty dang close on that NASDAQ put butterfly. We were you doing with that? >> I was looking on on Tuesday looking at

[5:16:48] Wednesday. We overshot it. >> Okay, we overshot it. Um but the directional assumption was correct with the Fed's not going to hike perhaps and hikes. >> Uh is that 22 again? It just so yeah,

[5:17:03] come out changes the game. >> So NASDAQ position expires worthless. The Russell position likewise that I put on as a potential will we see further continuation down here just for the one for the expected move through the end of

[5:17:16] the week down to 2,800 uh 2880 I should say that does not look like it's going to work out at all. Um in fact small loss here for basically less than most happening given the fact that I'm leaning long deltas in the stock market

[5:17:30] if the Russell's not tanking, you know, 2 3 4% into Friday, that's probably going to be a good thing for the rest of hedges, if you will, in the case the market went down. I'm going to leave

[5:17:43] now. >> Uh, if tomorrow we get down to 2880 and a nice trade. But, you know what? There have been a ton of pain along the way

[5:17:56] That's not that far at all. >> 60 wrestle points. That's that's that's I I I think I I think that's still doable. It's doable enough to at least sure. So I don't think it's out of the books.

[5:18:10] know, one of the things uh still at 22 days to expiration, we were talking yesterday 2875 2850 short put spread >> What's going to happen with the market today? We're back above the 50-day.

[5:18:22] We're get trying to climb back through the one week. So maybe yesterday was a action is not finding any followthrough after what looked yesterday afternoon >> It did all it looked bad. It didn't feel good either. I I I could imagine. I mean

[5:18:36] the self it kept going and it's like when you buy the dip and the keep the was that was a meme I made a long time ago. It went viral. But I mean you know yesterday. It just felt like the floor was falling out out underneath you. So

[5:18:49] it's just crazy to see it recoup all that downside action in such a short amount of time. Should we be surprised? Maybe not. Not really. But uh the whenever the market's on its butt like that can't be understated either. So

[5:19:02] it. But man, it was it was difficult to pull the trigger on some long delta down there. Um a lot of uncertainty. >> It it was. So I'm still just kind of managing, you know, trimming the hedges as it were, managing my book right now.

[5:19:15] Uh 15 days to expiration. I had something on here >> uh you know, a long put spread. So that's working out a little 15 days to go. That was a little protection. I'm looking out at the 50 days to expiration

[5:19:29] >> Um short put spread down here. >> Short call spread a little bit further up for the NASDAQ to con stay constrained. So us reentering towards, the one month here towards 700 and the triple Q's. It wouldn't be the worst

[5:19:43] stomach it still at these levels, but if we start to clear this 28,250 get your bullish engulfing bar down here. Do I want to have that long put spread working? No. Take it off. Run with the money. It looks like we've

[5:19:58] turned a corner and the low could be in. And so we adjust and we move on. >> Agreed. I don't have much more to say here about index level. We'll go more into individual stock names later when TP and

[5:20:11] Certainly, we're going to look at Amazon and uh Apple as we get into that earnings report window here. I want to go over to bonds because the yields yesterday went crazy. Uh and it was really just the long end

[5:20:25] of the curve here. I'm staying on ZB right now. Uh biggest point move we've seen of the year so far in the 30-year. >> Yeah. You trading these right now? >> Um uh gosh, regrettably, no.

[5:20:37] >> I mean, I I took a position off on Monday. >> Mhm. uh long put spread because we had got back to basically my entry point thinking that oil was coming off. This probably rallies a little bit more. I

[5:20:49] could re-enter. I could not get filled on Tuesday or Wednesday yesterday on the >> And then this thing tanked again. So a little disappointed in how that all should have been poking around the market moving my uh you know, moving my

[5:21:04] strikes perhaps trying to find a different way to express my view. I bunch of other things. So, I missed the move. And granted, I've been leading missing the single largest swing in yields in one day does leave me a little

[5:21:19] gruntled. >> You feel something. Yeah. >> Yeah. Especially when you patient. Yeah. No, you're speaking my language right much. A lot of times it's like you miss that that entry you were looking for and

[5:21:33] I think it's better to not start building those bad habits to where you works for now until you, you know, it shuts the door on your face. But I hear I didn't recognize we sold off that much yesterday,

[5:21:47] the bonds, the notes didn't get down to their lows, which is an interesting go out to ZT today, you're seeing it flat. It had a pretty decent rally yesterday. It also opened up lower today and it recovered all those losses. So,

[5:22:03] 210 spread widened out by 9.7 basis points yesterday, which is fairly we've seen over the course of this year in the 210s. But, uh, Errol, I bring all want to draw it back to what's happening here in stocks a little bit. And I

[5:22:17] brought this up this morning in, uh, uh, the first trades of the day that I talk about with Mike and Jamal. Um, we had a big pullback in some of the bank stocks here in bonds for me right now because I

[5:22:30] don't want to feel like I'm chasing. If I was already short ZB like a long 110 holding this thing. Let it run. We still got so much time to expiration. >> But the bank angle yesterday kind of confused me because banks usually like

[5:22:44] steeper yield curves and they like steeper yield curves uh you know particularly when you see um the long end of the curve rising a bit. Why? because they make money on the loans they originate which typically are like

[5:22:57] in the mortgage realm 15 30 years the longer end of the curve and they pay out on their depositors the short end of the curve so when the spread widens they >> so the spread widened yesterday and the banks got crushed

[5:23:10] I got to say JP Morgan uh being up 2% here today uh that was a nice little bounce makes a good deal of sense bouncing makes a good deal of sense KRE is even bouncing here a little bit today it's not at the highs but a yield curve

[5:23:23] in this shape to take a step back some of the financials will not find this problematic at all and just from a capital allocation perspective if you're worried about AI and tech still and you're looking for opportunities in non

[5:23:35] AI or tech names >> and you don't find yourself in the Ilia about a recession which I'm not right now still >> hey look actually a reason >> yeah no 100%

[5:23:49] was his like first or second day on vacation in market tanks and he's like, >> Yeah, I mean I mean I mean we don't we don't see days like that very often. Um but you had brought up the bonds. It's extremely difficult to get short into a

[5:24:01] delta looks a little bit attractive here. I've only traded bonds one time, Chris, one time. Uh which is a record for my generation. So I'm up there. Uh but I'm you brought bonds to my eyes. I'm definitely looking at a little bit

[5:24:15] of long delta down here at these lows. Uh, if you told me that you are the have traded bonds, I would also make that would make a lot of sense to me, volume, too. I know Gus and I threw it on at the same time, so that might be

[5:24:28] >> There he goes. >> So, one of the Can I point something out One of the questions that have been asked in uh recent sessions was about asked in uh recent sessions was about the uh the earnings yield in uh the S&P

[5:24:43] 500 versus the bond market and like at what point um do you make the determination that it's worthwhile to invest in bonds over stocks because if yields go up high enough then certainly investors face a choice. This is not a

[5:24:56] trader question, right? Traders are not going to be looking on any given day higher than the earnings yield on the S&P 500, so today I'm only trading bonds capital allocators decision. Folks who are in portfolio management, they manage

[5:25:13] pensions, retirement funds, things of that nature. Why? Because they need to generate certain amount of money every single year for their clients who have very specific goals. So uh you know if if a a individual right you yourself the

[5:25:29] um a conversation that you could have is I have x dollars of savings I want to retire with this much money in this many number of years what do I need to do in

[5:25:41] order to generate the kind of returns both in you know for total return right uh income growth capital growth both ends what kind of returns do I need to can retire comfortably and the adviser will punch the numbers

[5:25:55] into a spreadsheet and it will spit out, okay, you need to return x% per year. coming up. Um, I'm going to be sending my kid to college and that's going to be So, like taking that into account, what will my return need to be? Oh, actually,

[5:26:09] more risk. And so, then we look at the historical returns of those products and historical returns of those products and we say to ourselves, what fits the bill? That decision matters, Errol, because if you can get the same return in two

[5:26:22] different markets >> and one has double the risk of the other, you don't take double the risk to generate the same level of return. >> Okay. So, why do we care about the rising yields then? Because if I can

[5:26:36] absorb if I can take on a tenure at 4 and a half 4.6%. But the earnings yield on the S&P 500 is say only two and a half percent. Why take all that risk in stocks when I can generate a greater return in something that does not carry

[5:26:51] >> Right? That that's the goal of trading and investing, right? maximizing your dollar return of invested capital, >> minimizing your risk. If I can tell you, Errol, you can make a $100 today, but

[5:27:03] you could lose $200 or you can make $1,000 today and there's no downside $1,000. >> Or even if that was 200, I would still take the,000, right? Even if it was 200, it's like capped off over here.

[5:27:17] >> Right. Exactly. So, that's kind of what I'm getting at right now. That's I know here. Some other things that are working on the other side of this. Gold still bouncing. Higher yields. Gold's not going down. Fascinating. I really feel

[5:27:30] sudden. Same thing for silver. Arrol. myself getting back into that mindset because I'm a little upset with the semiconductor performance recently. So, not going to chase Chris, but I can hear

[5:27:42] it talking. Um, I do bring those up because the dollar index here today is >> Golly. >> And yields up and the dollar down like [sighs and gasps] >> This is called reflation to a certain

[5:27:56] >> we're lighting the currency on fire. We're going to have higher inflation and >> We didn't even touch on oil, right? And I mean, oil continuing to go up is inflationary if I'm not if I'm not mistaken. And it it doesn't seem like uh

[5:28:09] we're cooling off just yet. it. Yes, oil's up over the last month, flat. Hey, >> that's how we have fun with statistics. months. What are you talking about there, Arl? We're fine. Don't even look.

[5:28:24] though. Ignore that. Hey, um, we're done for now. There's more great trading see him in the waiting room. TP is here. half an hour after what's been a really rockous kind of day. We have Dr. Jim

[5:28:37] coming up with From theory to Practice. Likewise, Tim Knight is here. And then we get into last call with myself and TP again. Trading continues. We'll see you again. Trading continues. We'll see you on the other side of a quick break.

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[5:31:34] Preston. It is 1:00 Central time Thursday and uh let's get trading cuz uh I have to make some money today. uh talking to uh Ben, our main uh

[5:31:46] production guy, who uh you know, talking about uh swimming in a pool and um you know, I think I need a pool uh new pool uh down here in central uh central Texas cuz it's it's like 100° or whatever it is, you know, and I like to whine, you

[5:32:02] know, first world problems. I get it. You too hot to go outside in the pool. I need some sort of coverage like, you know, um trees or whatever. Hey, really quickly, let me open up YouTube so I can see any chats that come through, any

[5:32:18] questions that you may may or may not have. Um, let's go DC live come in as a have. Um, let's go DC live come in as a just a random body here.

[5:32:32] And one moment, please. Standing by. Stand by. >> standby. Here we go. There we go. All right. So, uh, and I'm going to, uh, yell at you guys, men and

[5:32:46] women, for some, uh, trade ideas. Anyway, what we're seeing here today is if anybody has been cruel enough to take a dead cat, throw it off a roof, and see it bounce. That I guess that came up in the, you know, 1920s or whatever. Um,

[5:33:02] back in a time when life was cheap and, uh, people, you know, didn't have TV to entertain themselves. So, who knows how that dead cat um saying came about, but we're seeing the S&Ps. I just had the VIX up here down 276 down below the 18

[5:33:18] handle again. Not surprising when you see the S&P up 110 bucks. That's that's surprising to me, but whatever. It's um you know, everybody loves the market, I guess. No one cares about crude oil. What's crude oil doing?

[5:33:34] What's crude oil doing? Um crude oil is down 23 cents. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. And then SPX. So, let's do an SPX trade just just really let's do an SPX trade just just really quick here. Um, as I know, we like to

[5:33:46] just gamble in towards gamble towards the close. Should we try bullish? Okay, everybody. I'm going to the uh going to the going to the um the uh going to the going to the um crowd here. Bullish or bearish on uh on

[5:34:00] I'm going to try another one of these stupid little butterflies. Maybe a double butterfly. No, that's that's dumb. I don't like that. Um

[5:34:14] Oh, BBB. Fine. Wait a second. Throw dead cat. That was before throwing rush. Yeah, well, you know, [laughter] that was before they invented rocks. They already had cats. So, um talking about the SMCI put, uh I sold a 29 half call

[5:34:30] more premium. So, I'm going to hang on to that um and see what happens tomorrow. But I will probably I don't necessarily want to get assigned on on necessarily want to get assigned on on SMCI. Here's what happened to SMCI.

[5:34:44] SMCI. Here's what happened to SMCI. Um earnings are coming up. So I am short the 29 half right around through here. Rallied up. Didn't take profits or anything. Wasn't that smart and market sold or the stock sold off.

[5:34:58] So we're sitting down here about sold it I think for about 90 something like that. So the loss isn't huge. I sold at 29 half call. earnings are coming out um in a week, but I I would just rather buy that put back and if I were still

[5:35:12] bullish on SMCI, I'm just going to sell another put in another expiration. All right, bear bullish bearish. Oh jeez. All right, we getting the um thoughts on coin. You know, Shaw Shank, let's do a coin trade today. That's on my list.

[5:35:24] Let's go to the watch list. And just to prove your point, coin is already loaded up. Um bearish. All right, let's go back to the S&P cuz we don't have much time here. Ben runs a tight ship with the

[5:35:39] traders. All right. So, let's see. Volatility is down, which means, well, let's just see what the price you can get for 715. Um, I So, I click on the the ask price of the 715 7415 puts. Um, I click on the

[5:35:57] 10, highlight it, and click on quantity to make that a two lot. I take that off to make that a two lot. I take that off and buy one of the 7405s for 35. Um, let's drag this down. Do I get a credit? 20 cent credit. Let's pull this

[5:36:12] down one more. What did I just do? Clear. Clear. Clear. First day with the new hands. Um, let's do this one and see what we get. And this is a lot about just experimentation there. Remember with when trading

[5:36:27] options, there is no best. There are only choices. choices that may fit your risk parameters, your speculative outlook, [snorts] etc., etc. So, this 90 cents. Let's take this down one. No, I don't. You don't get enough of

[5:36:41] these. Let's do this one. [clears throat] Let's do this one. Um, by the 7395 put, sell the 7405. Buy the 7410s.

[5:36:56] Um that remember folks there is an embedded short vertical in this case a short put spread that drives the trade. Butterfly is just a cheap little lottery Butterfly is just a cheap little lottery ticket that is it is the 73957400

[5:37:09] put spread that is short in this trade that's going to drive the P&L. Let's try it for let's do it for 20 let's 25cent credit. See if it gets filled. See if anybody wants to play. All right let's get let's get to work here. Let's go in

[5:37:23] and cuz somebody asked very nicely, "What about Coin?" Coin I had as a chart. Coin is obviously the biggest um um crypto exchange uh in America at the

[5:37:36] very least, probably the world, I guess. Um I don't know much about crypto crypto exchanges outside the US has earnings coming up today. Let's see, for the sake of argument, let's look at a chart. Things been pretty flat. Um, let's go to

[5:37:51] the skew because that's all I really understand. Let's see the one day. I know with volatility is screaming in here. Um, that's just the nature of here. Um, that's just the nature of coin. Let's see the skew. So 16241

[5:38:04] that's right around 62 1/2. So go down five points to the uh 57 12 puts 375 up five points to the 67 390. Skews pointed a little bit to the upside. What do I

[5:38:16] get for a short put spread? 72 cents for the 52 half 55. [groaning] we'll take it up a little more.

[5:38:28] 89. That's a little bit That's a little bit richer. That gets me to my third or And do I care about one day? Do I have a long-term outlook on coin? I really don't. It's just something to play. And we can go to talk a little bit about uh

[5:38:42] yesterday's earnings trades. I did the winners, the losers, the good, the bad, and the ugly. Let's do this at 189. By the way, folks, the reason this P50 number looks so funky here with the zero DTE, things like that, is it's a Monte

[5:38:55] Carlo simulation that runs a thousand simulated stock paths, stock price path from here to expiration. And if expiration is in one day or less,

[5:39:07] there's it it doesn't calculate the values that well. I mean, it calculates the values, but it gets the the numbers kind of screwy. Let's ship this off at kind of screwy. Let's ship this off at 89 cents. Come on, Phil. Come on. Um,

[5:39:20] let's go to the watch list again. Another couple of big ones. Apple and Amazon. We'll talk about SpaceX, too. Shell, does Shell have I think Shell? No, let's stick with Amazon for now. Amazon

[5:39:33] um has earnings coming out today. Again, a 63% IV rate, but more to the point, a 63% IV rate, but more to the point, 152% overall V with these one days. And 152% overall V with these one days. And pretty tight markets. Um, let's go in

[5:39:48] open interest. Just see. Yeah, there's a boatload of open interest in these boatload of open interest in these things. Uh, stocks at 23725. [snorts] Down five points to the 32 half. 615 up

[5:40:02] five points. 620. Oh, that's a that's a close one, folks. That's a close one. Bullish. I'm going to go to the I'm going to go to the um go to the phones. What are we thinking about Amazon? bullish probably bullish.

[5:40:20] Oh, the chart is a web platform. Yeah. So, jumbo life the this is the webbased platform of Tasty. And the reason I use platform of Tasty. And the reason I use that is to go to the charts and see the

[5:40:34] implied volatility uh study. The desktop currently does not have that. currently does not have that. Set those limits. Yeah, folks. It's um defined risk trades. Save my butts today. My butts. My butt today. All

[5:40:50] Amazon. You got to be I got to step in and do a trade here. Let's do a bullish trade. Five. Let's take this down. Down. 80s.

[5:41:02] I'm going to buy the 225. Sell the 227 half. Filled on coin for 89 cents. Let's do this one for 80. Uh-oh. Bear bullish bear. Uh-oh. Bear bullish bear. D Amazon hands off. Live from Vienna

[5:41:16] D Amazon hands off. Live from Vienna says hands off. So is that bearish? Bear says hands off. So is that bearish? Bear bear. Let's see what we get for a bearish tread. I got smoked in some of my smoked

[5:41:29] on Microsoft yesterday. I'm getting two. Yeah. Okay, let's let's just try bear. Let's try 82 cents here. Let's ship it. See if I get filled. So the 245 247 half one day. Bing bing. Um, let's go to the next trade. Watch list. Um,

[5:41:45] how about how about Bristol Meyers? Bristol Meyers. Did they come out BMY? Bristol Meyers. Many fine fine products for your home.

[5:41:57] Many fine fine products for your home. BMY came out this morning and the stock I think um stocks been noodling. Stock stock sold off originally but rallied up. Why does Bristol Myers even come up? cuz

[5:42:10] they're looking at earnings stuff. That's it. BMY and so earnings are done. Uh stocks up. The markets are for Bristol Meyers are pretty tight. I mean,

[5:42:22] it's they're 10 cents wide. I get it. That's not great, but the open interest is decent. Uh let's go to these 15 days and see if it's Yeah, I mean, it's it's and see if it's Yeah, I mean, it's it's not bad. Um what do we think with the

[5:42:35] stock at 64 half again? Do I have any opinion about Bristol Myers? Not really. opinion about Bristol Myers? Not really. Um, a down two bucks, up two bucks. Um, the skew is pointed to the upside. How about a naked short put

[5:42:49] with 15 days? I don't know. Let's just see. Let's see what the buying power effect is. Is 1,000 bucks too? That's too expensive. So, let's go and do Let's too expensive. So, let's go and do Let's kick this out to uh another further

[5:43:01] expiration. Go out to 29 days. Let's go out to 36 days. By the way, no matter what um what you're doing, this this these controls here make changing trades so much faster. The markets stink out here, I am inclined maybe to back off

[5:43:18] and not trade BMY. What do we get for this one? No, I don't like BMY. Let's move on to the next one. Let's look at Shell. Shell's another one Let's look at Shell. Shell's another one that had earnings um coming out and they

[5:43:31] are up a little bit. They came out this morning rallying on the news. Uh and also probably just because oil's so strong. Markets are better than BMY. Uh

[5:43:43] get. Nothing in there. And the reason when I when I say nothing, you know, 5 cents at 20, you know, 2530 for the at the money. H that's that's not high enough for me. So let's go out to 22 day. Let's go to 29 days.

[5:44:00] day. Let's go to 29 days. see what we get for 29 days. Markets are wider because of the weeklies. And yes, the the the trading activity will trickle over into the weeklies. But let's just keep with regular August for

[5:44:12] let's just keep with regular August for now. Let's see. Um stocks at 90. So down now. Let's see. Um stocks at 90. So down three bucks, up three bucks. Um yeah, the skew skews point to the downside. Let's sell a call spread in um in Shell.

[5:44:30] Let's sell a call spread in um in Shell. See what we get. 47 cents for that. See what we get. 47 cents for that. That's stuff. Not getting deep. Let's We could take it

[5:44:45] down here to the 9192. Yeah, let's do this one. So, I'm going to sell the 91 by the 93. This is a trade. Decent metric. 70 70% probability trade. Decent metric. 70 70% probability making about $31 before 22 days. Um, and

[5:44:59] making about $31 before 22 days. Um, and the way this calculation works, most of the uh uh most of the occurrences for that 50% profit are going to come closer. In other words, they're going to come in the first 10 15 days or so. So,

[5:45:13] let's just ship this off. See if I get filled. Probably will not be cuz, you know, it's not a not a very actively traded stock. Um, let's go into Apple.

[5:45:25] Apple has earnings tonight. So, Apple and Amazon are a couple of the big names um coming out tonight. And I already have some positions in Apple like have some positions in Apple like everybody else. Uh 3332,

[5:45:39] everybody else. Uh 3332, right in between 32 1/2 and 35 kind of right in between 32 1/2 and 35 kind of um down five points. 27 half puts are um down five points. 27 half puts are 330. 40 puts are 290. Am I doing that

[5:45:52] right? Yeah. I mean, the Ske point to the downside. Uh, let's go. the downside. Uh, let's go. Let's go. D. [clears throat]

[5:46:08] Let's see. Anybody have an opinion about Apple? Bearish on Dr. Jim Bearish on Amazon. Yeah, well, that's what I did. Activity. Did I get filled yet? Filled at 82 cents. Sold a call spread.

[5:46:23] uh, let's see. The order chains acting wonky. Uh, E Media, what's the weather like at UT Austin? Probably hotter than where I am only because it's right in the middle of the city.

[5:46:38] Thoughts on coin? Let's go back into coin. Sorry about that. I get so dist, you know, it's it's trading, right? It's trading. Did I wrote an order? Yeah, I failed. I'm sorry. Here I sold a sold a um foot

[5:46:52] spreading coin. Losing my mind. Let's go into, you know, what's a stock that I always keep an eye on is LHX, L3 Harris. And if you're talking about um

[5:47:04] uh stocks with earnings coming out and defying the market, you know, good defying the market, you know, good numbers, the stock crashes, it's like what's the point? Um L3 Harris, what do I know about L3 Harris? Not much. Only

[5:47:16] I know about L3 Harris? Not much. Only that they make those uh night vision have some of their tubes for my night vision stuff and the stock got crushed. vision stuff and the stock got crushed. Here's the problem um with L3. So, you

[5:47:30] "Okay, you know, I kind of like their products. They, you know, what consumer products I could buy." Mostly it's a military thing and presumably they have a huge backlog because of all the shooting wars all over the place.

[5:47:43] shooting wars all over the place. Everybody wants their L3 Harris toys um Everybody wants their L3 Harris toys um to um to use. So, the point is the stock to um to use. So, the point is the stock is down, but the markets stink. Um, not

[5:47:55] a lot of open interest in these things, a buck wide, and yeah, okay, it's a $260 stock. Yeah, they're going to No, this this stuff stinks. So, as much as I would like to um trade L3 Harris just cuz I it is one of the few products that

[5:48:12] I actually buy, I don't I don't buy a whole lot. Uh, I buy food and the occasional night vision and the markets just stink. They just stink. I mean, this is you can't trade this thing. So, L3 Harris is an example of um good

[5:48:29] numbers and apparently their missile IPO that they were going to launch. It got postponed. Market didn't like whatever that means. Who knows what that means? Is it bullish or bearish on the stock? Well, obviously the market hate it. The

[5:48:41] stock's down 11 12%. a couple of the stocks. MSFT stocks. MSFT I uh sold a um uh call spread puts. Yeah, call spread in here. And I am getting smoked on that. Let's go to 60

[5:48:56] and you'll see it. Yeah. So, I'm dead on this. But you know what? I'm going to hang on. It's a defined risk trade. I'm not sweating it. Uh Starbucks is fighting for the hearts and minds. I'm short the 79 call spread in there.

[5:49:11] Should have listened to Dr. Jim. he was bullish on it. Um had a big rally last night. It was up like 112. Uh but then it started calm down a little bit. I'm just going to hang on to this. Um I bought back Carvana.

[5:49:25] bought back Carvana. Uh what's CVNA? Uh I was short call spreads in Carvana. Um bought those back. That was down 11 and a half%. Uh covered my um call spreads in Mike Meta. Think tanked. arm.

[5:49:42] spreads in Mike Meta. Think tanked. arm. I'm short a call spread in ARM and that is that was threatened this morning, but I'm going to hang on to that for one day. I'm going to I have to check my my P&Ls and some of these things. And one

[5:49:54] of the things I do um is I go down the list on my position statement. I have the um um the the percent of open and when I see something that's making 50% of its max profit, I just close it. Like I

[5:50:09] closed GM today. They just little bits and pieces of trades in here. Um, one of the things that I know Chris was talking about with Errol a few minutes ago was the strength in or the weakness in the dollar. The dollar getting whacked. Um,

[5:50:24] the euro, which I like to trade. Um, don't have a position. I had a position in bearish on Canadian dollars. That's losing. Bullish on yen. That yen had a nice little spike up today. And just to prove the point 6J.

[5:50:39] So, this is what yen did today. Yoink. And that saved my little short put spread for now. For now, I don't have enough profit to take it off yet. have enough profit to take it off yet. Let's go into 6E. Um 60 is rallying up.

[5:50:52] Do I think it's justified? Personally, I don't know. I um this is all about, you know, presumably US rates not going up anytime soon, I guess. Um but let's just

[5:51:06] see trade. Let's go to 8 days. Let's tempt fate stocks. Uh 1555 right around here. Let's go down uh half right around here. Let's go down uh half a point to 2110 up half a point. They're

[5:51:21] even. Let's let's just sell a call spread in here just because you know Europe. Uh let's sell this one. If I can make 60 bucks on $486

[5:51:36] of capital, that's not bad. Let's ship this off at 11 and see if I get filled. Working. Nothing done. Let's go to our um see if I'm filled on my

[5:51:48] S&P working now. See, here's the problem. They they knew it was me. problem. They they knew it was me. Uh so, we're trying to get at like 30 cent credit or whatever it is. Now, it's 10. The market's up. They're just

[5:52:02] They're just killing it. Let's see if we can Let's do another one. Just like I enough credit. I'm just going to leave it in there. Um, let's go into another

[5:52:14] it in there. Um, let's go into another one that I was looking at is SpaceX. Uh, SpaceX. And I've been beaten up. Now, actually, I'm up trading SpaceX this year. Um, it's not bad. SpaceX has been is you

[5:52:28] know everybody bought it when it was like 200 bucks or whatever it is. Now it's like oh no stocks go down. Yeah. Well they do. Okay. This is SpaceX. Does that mean it's at a bottom here? No. I don't know. Um the

[5:52:43] I the only reason I am up a little bit on SpaceX this year is just trading skill. And you know I'm not saying oh yeah I'm such a great trader. That's not the point. It's just using the techniques

[5:52:55] positions and stuff like that. That saved that saved my SpaceX. The pro the point is 84% IV rank. The volatility is huge in these things. Earnings are

[5:53:08] coming out next Tuesday as that is. I don't want to deal with that. 112. I bet the skew is pointed towards the north because everybody loves SpaceX. Um 110s because everybody loves SpaceX. Um 110s or 165, 114s or 210. Yeah, let's just

[5:53:23] spread in here. [clears throat] 53 cents for the 1.33. going to buy the sevens and sell the nines. Uh, let's try 53 cents just to

[5:53:37] play. Just to play. Bing. Am I doing that right? Yep. Bing. Send. Filled to that right? Yep. Bing. Send. Filled to 53. Filled to 53. Um, any other symbols 53. Filled to 53. Um, any other symbols you want me to look at? So, the VIX.

[5:53:50] you want me to look at? So, the VIX. Yeah, the VIX [sighs and gasps] down. It hasn't really changed much. Um, Apple. What do we do with Apple? Did I talk about Did I do anything in Apple yet? No. Let's go into

[5:54:04] Apple. Apple. Apple. Apple. Apple.

[5:54:16] Let's Are we bullish or bearish on SanDisk. Somebody's bringing it up. Yeah. Um live SanDisk. SanDisk is crazy.

[5:54:28] SanDisk is crazy. It's It could be a little tough to trade too. SNDK just as far as executing. I'm bull. Let's say bullish on Apple. I just know it is. It bullish on Apple. I just know it is. It um Let's see if we get this 75 cents for

[5:54:43] um Let's see if we get this 75 cents for this. Yeah, that's pretty good. Uh Apple D. Do I always close jam left? Do I always close at 50% no matter what? Generally, um there are some things that I'll I'll let go um if they're so far

[5:55:01] out of the money, but the point is with the with the tasty platform, there's zero, you know, the execution costs to close are small. [snorts] Um the point close are small. [snorts] Um the point is that um uh the because it's cheap to

[5:55:17] close trades. I generally do take the risk off, move on to the next thing. Yeah, Roblox. Nothing for earnings. All right, there's enough uh enough waiting. right, there's enough uh enough waiting. I'm going to throw this at

[5:55:31] Yeah, let's just raise Let's give them We'll take a penny. 77 cents. Filled at 77. Bullish on Apple. Bullish on Apple. Um Roblox. Yeah, Roblox got smacked. Um

[5:55:43] I was thinking about a um a trade yesterday in Roblox. Did not do it. yesterday in Roblox. Did not do it. Didn't get around to it. RBLX I mean I don't know. Do they have any one day options?

[5:55:59] this morning? Let me see. And there were a bunch of stocks um that came out today like Mastercard or [gasps and sighs] like um you know Southern or there's some stocks VLOOs's

[5:56:15] coming out or came out this morning but the the markets just stink. Um there's no nothing to trade with them. Let's see.

[5:56:30] these markets. So here's what we've done. Um activity sold a put spread in Apple. Uh sold a put spread in SpaceX. Sold a working a call spread. Selling a

[5:56:42] call spread in 6. Working a uh call spread in Shell. Filled selling a call spread in Amazon. Sold a put spread in coin. Working prices. Working an order coin. Working prices. Working an order in S&P. So this is what I do all day.

[5:56:57] um you know, get a handful of fills in a half an hour. It's just trade after trade after trade after trade. And that's part of what it is. And this is all about getting the getting the number of recurrences up. Do any of these

[5:57:11] symbols really mean a whole lot to me? No, they really don't. Um I hope they No, they really don't. Um I hope they make money and you know, I mean the best with them, but the point is that it's they're just symbols. I am product

[5:57:25] agnostic. If it has volatility, I sell premium. If it's low volatility, I'll call spread, that sort of thing. So, remember folks, none of this is a trade recommendation. Uh, if you do any of this stuff, that is uh that's your call.

[5:57:39] And please, if you do, do not take any more risk than you are comfortable with.

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[6:00:13] to Practice. Welcome to Show Tail. Welcome to the broadcast, man. Welcome to the Victory Lab edition of what it is that we are trying to do cuz we hit him on Meta, we hit him on Starbucks, we hit him on Chipotle. There's your surprise

[6:00:25] hit right there. We did get crushed on Microsoft, but four for four was probably a little bit too grandiose in terms of the expectations. So, welcome to the show. I am glad that you are here. If you are watching over on the

[6:00:37] bounce on over to YouTube because you can join the conversation and join the discussion and communicate with your brethren who are also watching the program and let me know in the chat guys how we play in Apple, how we play in

[6:00:49] Amazon. If you guys saw inside the trade this morning, we did a little bearish trade in Amazon. So now we have to figure out how do we want to play Apple this morning on inside the trade. I was kind of like, I think I want to be

[6:01:03] bullish some Apple. But then I just saw TP and TP is bullish Apple. And we have unlocked the secret sauce, guys. Got to be on the other side of TP. So, I don't know what we're going to do, but in the next 25 to 35 to 45 minutes, we are all

[6:01:17] whatever questions you have for me, drop them in the chat. I'll try to get to as mark of the show. I checked Poly Market this morning. The expected move on the number of questions I get to per show is going to be somewhere between 0.15 and

[6:01:31] 0.17. So get it into the chat. The earlier the better. Ben, go ahead and bring us into the market. Man, what is going on? We missed it, guys. And Ben can back me up on this. We almost had a chance at greatness. Autumn actually

[6:01:44] called me about 30 seconds before Ben got me going live. We almost had our of storming here. She's like, "Hey, can you lock the front door? Can you make all these things? I'm like, do you even know what I do for a living? Like, do

[6:02:00] you even know what I do for work at this point? I'm not so sure, but we had our opportunity here at [clears throat] some point in the uh in the near future. But EM S&P is up 106 on the day. You've got the risk-free instrument, also known as

[6:02:13] the NASDAQ futures, an extraordinarily extremely high-risk product, up 830 on the day. Got the Boomers up 535. You got the Russell 3000 or the artist formerly known as the Russell 3000, the Russell 2000 up 29 on the day. You got bonds up

[6:02:30] uh I'm sorry, bonds down 28. You got notes down 7 and a half. You got oil down 91 cents. Got UB40 down a little over a point. You got the shifties out there celebrating with gold up over 67 on the day. My Hunt brothers are out

[6:02:45] there. Don't they run Thursday specials at the Hunt Brothers pizza? I think they do. up a$16 on SIL. So that looks pretty good. Got the British pound is up. You got the euro is up. You got volatility is obviously [clears throat] down on a

[6:02:58] volatility futures or I'm sorry, volatility futures are down a$120. Spot volatility, the old VIX, as irrelevant as it might be in 2026,

[6:03:10] we still come back to this guy because you got to dance with Brunga. So VIX you got to dance with Brunga. So VIX down 282 on the day and uh there you go. So all right. So, what I want to do is we are going to excuse me. We are going

[6:03:23] to comb through the streets that are the portfolio. We'll kind of see where the wind blows us. Obviously, we're going to address the four earnings trades from Amazon that we did this morning. I don't think I'm going to do a second Amazon

[6:03:35] trade, but you never know. And then I'm going to get to you guys, man. I see you going to get to you guys, man. I see you guys in the chat just putting in work. today goal here today. But I appreciate you being here. I appreciate you guys

[6:03:47] eyeballs. I'll just take heartbeats at this point and so you guys are here. Brian Racketton is here. Sam is here. Ash Finn is here. BBB Fine is here. He demarcation. When I put my comment in the chat, that lets me know when the

[6:04:02] previous show kind of ended and when my show begins. Rats Media is here. What's going on there, Rat? Point B. Daniel Perkins is here. What is going on? Shaw Shank Redemption is in the house, man. I mean, is there isn't that the number one

[6:04:15] movie of all time? I think they recently, and by [clears throat] recently I mean sometime in the last 20 years, I think they did a list of like the all-time greatest movies. And I think Shaw Shank Redemption was number

[6:04:27] one, was it not? Like somebody fact checked me on this. Uh I think it was number one. I think like the top five were like obviously, you know, Shaw Shank Redemption, The Godfather, The Program I think was number three. And

[6:04:39] two might be there in the top five, but I'm pretty sure it was Sha Shank, three there. But uh but all right, let's go ahead. Let's take a look at the different positions in the portfolio. Okay, I want to go to Okay, wait, wait,

[6:04:53] wait, wait. We have to call an Audible here for the show. So, I was going to about Microsoft. I was going to talk about Chipotle. I was going to talk all those things. But before we do, guys, if you happen to have any banana

[6:05:06] so you're probably dry. But if you happen to have any left, guys, take an extra sl uh slip. I was going to say slug or sip. Take an extra slip or take slug or sip. Take an extra slip or take an extra slug for our MNQ positions. Not

[6:05:22] an extra slug for our MNQ positions. Not just position, but positions plural. So, while ago. Well, we can look at the Allison chains here in a second, but right now, let's just kind of paint with a very broad brush and get a broad swath

[6:05:35] of what is happening. So, 2,00 I'm sorry, 28,400 strike on a put. 27,300 should have used a different color, but it's kind of too late now. This was a

[6:05:47] I'm going to say maybe a few days ago. It was maybe earlier this week or maybe at the end of last week. I can't exactly remember. I've been a couple days off of Oh, look at Ben coming up close. So Ben, Shaw Shank number one, Godfather number

[6:06:00] two, and then Dark Knight Rises is up there. Wow, that's crazy. Okay, so number five. Okay, so thank you there Ben. I really appreciate that. But take a look at these MNQ short puts [clears throat]

[6:06:12] guys. There is a reason why the do nothing strategy is the default setting. And I present to you exhibit quadruple T the do nothing strategy as the default setting. Remember, short premium is

[6:06:27] already really strong on its own merits. Short premium can stand on its own two there and usurp the process. It doesn't need me to get in there and usurp the do that. Like, from time to time, we'll look at the mechanics. We'll look at the

[6:06:42] out what we what type of move we should make next to maybe take off some risk or of massage or maneuver around the extrinsic value or whatever. But by and large, man, just putting the strategies on, understanding what you've signed up

[6:06:57] for. There it is again. Understanding, okay, this is the risk. This is the return. These are my contingency plans. Like, here are the gimmies. Here are the gotchas. Here's my game plan. Like, I get it all set, right? And then I don't

[6:07:11] get it all set, right? And then I don't do anything. Nothing. Especially with a shortput strategy, right? Because again, what is the worst case scenario? Guys, we have to talk about this. We may spend the entire show on this. What is the

[6:07:23] the entire show on this. What is the worstc case scenario with a shortput? It goes in the money and it goes deep in the money and it goes like deep deep deep deep in the money. That's your worst case scenario, right? Okay. What

[6:07:36] does that mean in a product like MNQ? That means you are long in the NASDAQ index. That means it's basically like you own some QQQ shares. It's basically like you own some long-term NASDAQ position. That's essentially what it is.

[6:07:51] position. That's essentially what it is. Is that really that bad, right? Is that really the worst possible scenario? I don't your own conclusion. I cannot tell you what to do. You have to decide what to

[6:08:03] do. But when it comes to thinking about my worst case scenario with a short put, I'm like, man, that really frees me up. Like, it frees me up in so many ways to or not make adjustments, get in there and manage the position or not manage

[6:08:16] the position. like it just gives me so much flexibility around the edges. And much flexibility around the edges. And man, here we are again. MNQ up 825 points. It is a uh it is a beautiful, beautiful thing. So, we're not going to

[6:08:30] have a little ways to go on both of these strategies. I mean, the 28,400, this guy is right around a scratch now. And the one we put on for inside the trade is up a little bit, but we've got a little bit more work to do. So, I

[6:08:45] obviously tonight with Apple and Amazon. That's going to likely move the NASDAQ significantly. Uh, but we're going to sit tight and do nothing and just kind of uh just kind of counter chickens here now that they have fully hatched. And

[6:08:57] so, there is some MNQ uh commentary. Actually, speaking of commentary, and I you. I just appreciate you guys, man. You're getting it done. You guys are getting it done. Here's what I got to know. I actually don't really care what

[6:09:11] you think about Amazon or Apple. What I need to know is which side are you on? Are we freeing Tony Romo or are we not? That's what I need to know. I haven't seen the full It's like a sixinute deal, right? I've only seen the clips. And

[6:09:24] guys, if you need a laugh, you've got to get on the internet today. Just log on to the internet and it will find you. Just get somewhere with where you have an internet connection at all. It can even be dialup and a Tony Romo mixtape

[6:09:37] will find you from the body cam footage of the DUI arrest. Personally, you got to let my man go. Like, you got We got to free Tony Romo, man. We got to

[6:09:49] get him out of there because again, I've only seen the clips. I haven't seen the full thing. Maybe it gets worse. I mean, the worst spot that he was in was when he was trying to follow the deal with his with his head. But if you actually

[6:10:01] watch it, he says, "Do you want me to just use my eyes?" And she wouldn't need to know where are you guys at? Are we freeing Romo? Are we throwing him in think his trial might be set for like it's in like a couple weeks I think it

[6:10:15] might be early September and so they need to live stream that thing man like because I want to know. The ALGO needs to know and so uh yeah, let's go ahead now. Let's go to Meta. Let's go to Microsoft. Let's go to Chipotle. Let's

[6:10:29] actually [clears throat] start with Meta because this is probably going to be the quickest of the bunch. So, we've got 22 days to go on the strategy and we've got days to go on the strategy and we've got the stock down $51. We we sold a uh call

[6:10:45] spread and it is currently marking for essentially nothing right now. There's still 75 cents left in there and there's 22 days left to go in the strategy. So, squeeze out of the orange. But, I don't know, man. Like, we've gotten basically

[6:10:58] this position. It's done all we basically asked it for from the beginning. And so I'm really kind of thinking we just take this trade off. We're way beyond 50%. Which again when you when you sell a vertical spread

[6:11:11] going into earnings. If you get this, you know, binary explosive move in your favor, it's very common and likely that you would clear that 50% hurdle pretty quickly. And so um so we're going to go ahead and take this trade off. I don't

[6:11:24] really think there's anything else to say about this guy. I mean, we're barely to first base at this point, so maybe we should find some more things to say. Uh, speaking of first base in baseball, you know what I love to do? I also love, not

[6:11:37] only do I love to watch clips of Tony Romo body cam footage, but I also like once in a while because the internet knows I really love baseball. Like, the everything about me. He knows more about me than I know about me. I will

[6:11:50] frequently have Barry Bonds videos come into my feed and not like prime Barry Bonds, although that's always amazing to watch, too. But listening to Barry Bonds about like what he did and like talk about different at bats or matchups or

[6:12:03] whatever. It's really fascinating stuff, man. It's kind of like you're getting in the head of like like a true master. It would be like in a lot of ways like listening to like Picasso talk about painting or listening to like Beethoven

[6:12:16] talk about, you know, music or listening to like, you know, like James Khan talk about when you when you think about these these absolute this masters at their craft talking about their craft. It's really cool man. like I really

[6:12:30] enjoy and obviously I'm a big Bonds fan because I mean when I was a kid I mean when I was a kid and he was great on the Pirates and a lot of people say he because of the Pirates and I'm like I don't know if we can say that but he

[6:12:43] should definitely be in the Hall of Fame just come just you know for everything included because if you think he was the only one taking Vitamin S man you are dead wrong. So all right so for Meta though let's go ahead and uh I think we

[6:12:55] though let's go ahead and uh I think we take this guy off. So, let's see if I do it's there's nothing more to do here, right? I mean, 74 cents, like I said, we holding risk for really no reason at that point, I think. So, let's go ahead

[6:13:09] and do All right, fill the 74 cents. Boom. Done. Okay, so there's Meta. Let's talk about um so that's a gimme. Let's go to a gotcha. So, Microsoft. have any banana netty left, which I'm

[6:13:22] you do, or maybe you've already gotten into your second one, maybe pour out a little bit for this Microsoft position because it's not going to make it. And so, this is [laughter] this is our butterfly.

[6:13:36] It is not going to be worth anything come tomorrow unless we get some crazy happen. And so, it's fully out of the money, though. Like, you can see there's not coming to get us. like we don't have to worry about closing this guy down. We

[6:13:50] can just let it kind of ride off into the sunset and then that is that. And the sunset and then that is that. And so, you know, it's not amazing, but it's together. Like, we made, you know, about three bucks on Meta. We're going to lose

[6:14:03] about four bucks on Microsoft. So, we're about a dollar in the hole moving into earnings trades three and four, which surprisingly have actually worked out. Uh, okay. So, for Microsoft, we don't need to do anything. It's going to do it

[6:14:17] to itself uh in a lot of ways. Uh it's just it's going to be gone. It's going to be gone come down Friday and then that is uh that is going to be that. Next on the docket, let's talk about Chipotle because Chipotle again, was

[6:14:30] there ever a doubt? I mean, you guys can check the tapes, man. I've been a Chipotle fan from the beginning. I've been all in on the three-day old stale chips from the very start. Even when Chipotle was taking all of our money for

[6:14:44] end. I mean, we were hemorrhaging cash in Chipotle, but we were still going chips. And I was like thinking I would think at some point I've got to get a fresh chip. Like, just mix one in. Just surprise me in the batch of stale chips.

[6:14:59] Give me one fresh guy in the middle. It never comes. It never comes. But man, the joke's on me because I just keep on coming back. And so Chipotle, we played must be all the cost savings on those stale chips. I mean, think about it.

[6:15:11] they're doing. Like, you think they're dumb? They're not dumb. Like, they know they're going to keep coming back. And we do. And so Chipotle, we have a long call spread here. And uh we're basically at maximum value on the spread. And so

[6:15:27] reason to hold this trade anymore because if we did then we only stand to make another what 28 cents and we could potentially lose out on uh you know our

[6:15:39] profits and start eating into our original stake on the trade and that amazing. So I really think for us here what we're going to do is let's go ahead what we're going to do is let's go ahead and let's close out of Chipotle. Uh

[6:15:53] yeah, it looks like 265 now. That's fine. Doesn't matter. So, all right. So, we got filled. So, we got filled at 265 and uh and that is that is that. All right. Beautiful. So, Chipotle is over and done with. Meta

[6:16:06] is over and done with. Microsoft, we go to Microsoft and I see you guys, man. Look at you guys in the chat, man. Flub21 is here, man. Look at Look at Bellage here in the house. Look at Jay Black is here, man. Sergio, Mr. Pillows,

[6:16:21] Black is here, man. Sergio, Mr. Pillows, man. Let's go. Let's go. N is here. David C is here. Man, I appreciate you guys. Let's go to uh Starbucks. Okay, so this is another one where uh I mean there's not much to

[6:16:34] going to find seven minutes, but we could essentially skip right past this guy if we wanted to. We sold the one put uh excuse me, just yesterday. If I do bring up my chains here, we can spin up

[6:16:46] a little rooster for you guys. Maybe a little man in the box if you're in that die if you're in that type of mood. You got to be in a real special mood to amazing jam. But I wouldn't listen to

[6:16:58] When I Die on like a good day, right? You got to listen to Rain When I Die on melancholy days and one of those days when you're kind of like I just kind of Like I kind of want to like just rage against the machine and it's not even

[6:17:11] Rage Against the Machine. It's like it's obviously Allison Chains, right? But to that when everything's kind of clicking on all cylinders because it won't necessarily keep you going in that direction. But for our purposes here in

[6:17:24] the chains, uh, we put this guy on yesterday, 729. That would be yesterday. We did it for 261. It's currently marking at a dollar two. It's currently marking at a dollar two. And so I'm no math major. I'm no Julia

[6:17:37] Spina, but uh, I think that's a little bit beyond 50% of max profit, I think. Not exactly sure. We can put a little squiggly line just in case. You know, that's going to be about 50%. Give or take. And so I think we just take that

[6:17:51] guy off, right? I'm happy. Autumn's happy. Uh she doesn't even know this trade exists. But if she did know, hypothetically in some fictitious world that never exists, she would be very happy that we did uh that we did this

[6:18:04] trade. So let's go ahead and uh it's so funny. She literally she has no idea what I do. None whatsoever. Uh and so it's very very funny. Um, it's so it's be out or actually a lot of times like maybe if I'm not there like her friends

[6:18:18] They're like, "So what does Jim do?" And she's like, "I don't really know." And they laugh about it later and like the friend tells me or she tells me or have a better story, right? You need to have a better story. Just tell everybody

[6:18:34] that I make below average math jokes for 42 minutes a day and that's it." because that's about as close to the truth as you could possibly get. But a lot of the pressure. She's like, "I'm not sure." Like I think he's on YouTube or

[6:18:46] something. I don't know. And so anyway, uh let's go ahead and [laughter] uh let's buy this guy back for$105. It's fine. Okay. Five out of Starbucks. So there you go. So there are um three winners out of four four earnings. And

[6:19:01] so this is very undrike. This is very undrike. It could be a sign of, you know, things to come. It could be a sign of, you know, the turning of the leaves or the changing of the guard or some other colloquialism that I can't think

[6:19:17] of in this very moment. Uh, but yeah, so let's go to Apple. Now, we did Amazon already. This was our butterfly from this morning. We're playing it to the downside. Just trying to fade a little Bezos, which uh doesn't usually work,

[6:19:30] but let's see if we can cheat the Reaper today. Let's see if we can kind of sidestep uh death here going into the close. And by death, I mean we might not even know that it happened. And so Amazon uh down uh Amazon up a couple

[6:19:43] bucks on the day, up 10. That's more than a couple. Let's go to Apple. Okay, guys. I Apple's down four bucks. Yeah. See, so this is it, man. So again, if basis and watching, you know, the morning show, the afternoon show. I

[6:19:58] morning show, the afternoon show. I really appreciate you guys so much. So, I I just caught you at the end of the chat there, BBB fine. I'm going to surprise and delight section of the show. I'm still trying to figure out

[6:20:11] That is the correct answer. Right. I think in a lot of ways I'm trying to shouldn't be throwing shade at Autumn. Uh if you're allowed to still say that Uh you caught me there, man. I wasn't ready for that. So, let's go to Apple.

[6:20:26] All right. [sighs] So, so this morning on uh on inside the trade and I was thinking about it and I was trying to figure out do like being a short-term contrarian. I do like fading short-term intraday moves

[6:20:41] that in just coming days and coming weeks and got some really really fun things uh in store for you guys. However, once I got brand new information because this is the efficient markets hypothesis, is it not?

[6:20:55] the market gets new information, it adjusts immediately. When the market time information, like this is not like some 10K report. This is not like some

[6:21:07] CEO talk that doesn't mean anything. I learned that TP is bullish on Apple. And so with that information, I'm like, all right, this changes my own personal directional bias significantly. so significantly that we're going to play

[6:21:23] Apple to the downside as well. What could possibly go wrong? And so if we go could possibly go wrong? And so if we go into Apple, we go into the trade page again, it's a Thursday and a Friday, right? I believe it has to be a

[6:21:36] butterfly bonanza. I think it's the only way to do it. I mean, we've got a nice way to do it. I mean, we've got a nice cheap little play on Apple on Amazon, I should say, which is great. Now, we're going to do the same thing with Apple,

[6:21:49] right? So, three out of four yesterday. If we just hit one out of two, here's here's what's great about maybe doing multiple butterflies on the same day for sequence of events that are kind of stacked together or whatever. It's not

[6:22:02] really a sequence, but uh well, it is kind of a sequence because Apple always forget. Do you guys normally forget about this? We know that typically we know that typically earnings are like all right 4:00 or Eastern 3:00 Central

[6:22:18] whatever earnings and then within 2 to 5 minutes sometimes right after the bell crazy and you kind of know what happened and then again it could reverse course information is out there which is fun it's exciting it's whatever Apple

[6:22:32] doesn't do it like that right Apple makes us all wait right Apple makes us all wait till 4:30 when you know the market's dying down like the futures are of stuff and we're getting ready to shut down for the day and it's like man I got

[6:22:46] to wait till 4:30. This is brutal. And so it is kind of a sequence of events because Amazon I'm pretty sure is a right after the bell type of deal right after the bell type of deal whereas Apple is uh a 430 deal. And so

[6:23:00] Apple's going to be after Amazon today. So, you know, with the two butterflies about this strategy. I don't need to hit them both to come out ahead. If I hit one out of two and the winner covers the loser, then I'd be very happy with that,

[6:23:15] especially a Thursday going into Friday butterfly, but really any butterfly for winners are very are multiples of the debit paid. And so, uh, well, maybe not Wednesday into Friday and Thursday and a Friday deal. And so, with it Thursday

[6:23:31] and a Friday though, I just, man, I'm feeling really, really good about this trade. And so if you're looking to make some money, you should be loading up on the call side. So 332, [laughter] you could buy basically any call. You could

[6:23:45] money, you could do whatever. You've got to make up your own decisions, of course. But uh but yeah, if history is any guide, my hot streak, it's going to reverse course very, very quickly here. So 332 and 1/2,

[6:23:58] So 332 and 1/2, 320, 307 12, 12 point wide. Man, I mean, they're just giving these away. Look at this. 250 this. 250 on the debit. That's a nice clean

[6:24:12] 4:1. That is a 4:1 risk return ratio. The butterfly is only 12 a.5 points wide on a $300 stock. So that's only about 4% of

[6:24:25] the stock price, but the implied volatility is 82.2%. That's very high in the one day cycle. Uh but this expected move, I mean, I'm just going on the not just pulling strikes out of thin air. I mean, I'm sure it feels that way

[6:24:38] that way to me a lot of the time, but I am using at least some semblance of, you know, objective analysis in terms of, you know, what I'm trying to accomplish here. So, I think we do downside. I think we do downside. I think we've got

[6:24:51] to, you know, so this is Wow, this is actually Wait a minute, guys. Hold on. I think we found it. I think we found it. So, the fade Dr. Jim strategy is So, the fade Dr. Jim strategy is amazing, right? this morning. My

[6:25:06] actual intuitive like the way I wanted to play it was Apple to the upside. You it's all there. I love Chipotle many, many months ago and this morning I wanted to play Apple to the upside. It's all there. So, by playing Apple to the

[6:25:18] This is it. I think we have figured it out. We have actually found a way to marry together a fade Dr. Jim and a fade TP strategy together. We're fading Dr. gym by original intent and we're fading

[6:25:34] to TP and so I really feel like our success rate on this trade it's got to success rate on this trade it's got to be somewhere between 23 to 26%. I mean I'm feeling really really good about this guy. So 332

[6:25:49] 320 307 and a half. Let me push this guy out so that way it is done guys are. I'm a little bit behind schedule right now, so I want to get to

[6:26:01] you guys and see what's cooking there in the uh in the chat. I smell what could be tuna fish and applesauce cooking in the chat. the chat. That would be about right. So 253.

[6:26:14] smell tuna fish and applesauce once in your life, it will forever be burned into your old factories. Uh all right, so let's go. [laughter] Let me see where Let's go. Uh, let me surprise and delight somebody at the very end. Vicky

[6:26:30] Zach, oh, thank you uh that I closed my long put spread I put on last night on very thankful. You should be. You should be. But again, I would tread lightly right now. This is uncharted territory. We are fading myself and fading TP at

[6:26:44] the same time. And so, I think you're probably okay, but I also feel very, very good about what's going on. Um, Chris Little, what's going on there? been in the chat before, but that just could be my misremembering. Uh Chris

[6:26:58] it is you do." That's good because I don't I really don't think I know. Uh addition to the morning schedule, man. Thank you very much, my friend. Uh I appreciate you. Uh where um where are you guys at? Uh let's go ahead

[6:27:15] and see. Uh oh, man. You guys are like, "Wow, I'm going to Yeah, you guys are in you guys are on this Tony Romo thing." Daniel Perkins says, "Free Roma." Sergio says, "Free Tony Batista." Yeah, free him, too. Rats Media. Uh, Gail Gail Tony

[6:27:30] we're jailing him. Wolf Wolf as a text in jail. Really? Joel James throwing uh Romo Nommo put him in jail. Man, you guys are really uh Bal says, "Is the program really good? I've never watched.

[6:27:43] I can't believe that you've never seen it." Uh, that changes my opinion of you a little bit there, Balage, but it's phenomenal. It is absolutely fantastic. And so you need to check that out uh without question. So let's go back to

[6:27:55] the beginning though. Let me see where you guys are at in the beginning. Uh Wolf Wolf is in the house. What is going on there? Wolf Wolf. going on there? Wolf Wolf. Uh Doc Banana Natty in hand, my man. Do

[6:28:07] that we were even trying to do here. I mean, I don't even know. Right. Again, I time. I mean, it'll be 17 years of marriage in uh in October. 17. Yeah, 17. 17. Now, I mean, the delta that we make it to October is only about a 45, maybe

[6:28:22] 47, but uh but should we make it, it'll be 17 years. Uh Ashfin is in the house. Let's go. Absolutely 100%. Sam L, Dr. Jim in the house. Victory lap dance come on, doc. Let's do it. Give us your best trade on Apple. I did it. I kind of

[6:28:37] gave you like two trades on Apple, which is awesome because now tomorrow, what remember the one that worked. I can be like, "Look, I told you guys. I told you guys in the morning it was going higher. I've got that all queued up." Or if it

[6:28:49] your boy calling audles at the last second." Like, "Look at your boy just reading the market, reading the tape, reading TP, playing this thing to the downside, and oh, it's all ready. It's locked and loaded. Oh, it's going to be

[6:29:03] awesome." And so, uh, same Doc, Reddit earnings tonight. Uh, I knew it. All Reddit. Oh, yeah. No, the Reddit. Reddit's where it's at, man. Uh, Reddit is 100% where it's at. I mean, Reddit's where you know, like if you need truth,

[6:29:19] like if you need truth in this world, right, where do you go? Do you go to your doctor? No. If you need truth, where do you go? Do you go to like a do you go? Do you go to a podcast? Maybe. But if you need like true truth,

[6:29:34] you go to the subreddits, right? You go to the comments in the Reddit threads. Like, this is where Johnny Pool's 47 lives. This is where Johnny Pool's 48 lives. and they're giving you nothing but truth after truth. And so they have

[6:29:49] earnings tonight. Uh man, that's a lot of earnings. Um of earnings. Um I'll take a I'll take a peek, but uh I do love the fact that there's a super wide expected move. The implied

[6:30:02] volatility is 267%. Uh, I mean, again, just given how Reddit contributes so positively to society, are we going to do another butterfly?

[6:30:15] this one, of course, is going to be to the upside. I mean, it's only 274. Wow, man. That's that's insane how cheap these are. Uh,

[6:30:27] Hang on. Let me let me let me finagle the strikes around a little bit. What if the strikes around a little bit. What if I did uh what is that? 17 1.5 man look at that man look at that they really are giving these things away S&P is up 111

[6:30:41] was there ever a doubt I don't think so I think so thank you for the trade idea there Samuel I think I am going to do some Reddit earnings so 18200 some Reddit earnings so 18200 217 12 so I really like this trade a lot

[6:30:56] being so high and then we'll take advantage of the crust that comes out and the nice thing about doing excuse me and this kind dawned on me actually I uh before even definitely not recently but when you do a butterfly to the

[6:31:09] upside you want to pin the short strike on wherever you put your butterfly but oftentimes when stocks rally the implied volatility is collapsing and butterflies volatility collapse just like any other short premium strategy even though it's

[6:31:22] way it's situated with those shared short strikes in the center it benefits from volatility collapse so if we do get the move higher and Reddit does rally on happen nobody knows I most certainly do not. But if that does happen and we pin

[6:31:36] going to be in a really really good spot here when it comes to taking advantage of the delta move, taking advantage of the Vega exposure on the uh the volatility contraction. And so I I like it, man. Let's go ahead and do it at

[6:31:50] 354. Uh filled on Reddit. There you go. Wow, man. Awesome. Uh okay, so great idea there, Samuel L. Uh I love it. So let's see. Uh DMZ. Uh oh, yeah, I already got that one. Brian Racketin is here. Afternoon, Doc. uh afternoon with

[6:32:04] Dr. Jim as as as the Lord intended. Yeah, potentially, but uh potentially we could be going against his master plan. Uh not that we ever can, but uh but this may be a gotcha from his vantage point on most days. The Jamba

[6:32:19] Life, what's your opinion on Cuban coffee versus Ghost? Interesting coffee versus Ghost? Interesting question here. So, I don't really So, if you ask me what is my opinion on blank versus ghost, I'm always going to

[6:32:33] say ghost, but I don't even know anything about Cuban coffee to give you any commentary. I know the answer is ghost, but I don't know enough about Cuban coffee to be able to say, could it potentially overtake ghost at some point

[6:32:45] but is it something that could be a suitable substitute on like an off day something? I don't know. And so I don't really know what Cuban coffee is. I'm the idea. And so you'll have to let me know there, John Life, what uh what you

[6:33:00] Google it myself, but I mean I'm at work I'm at work and so doing whatever it is I do. And so David C, uh did you have long puts in ZB on your scorecard? That was a win, too. Uh oh, ZB. Yeah, ZB down

[6:33:14] 27. No, I didn't, but I got out of that short put in ZB. That was an Ash Finn uh special there. So, thank you there, my friend. Uh but uh no. Yeah, bonds being down today on a day like today, that's really surprising. And so, you would

[6:33:27] of together since, you know, the metals are up, the market is up, you know, this one type of day, but bonds have just not gotten the uh not gotten the memo. Uh, on a Tesla butterfly after dropped hard or when I got assigned, got it. It's a

[6:33:44] defined risk strategy. Correct. Why does assignment even happen? Uh, oh, Ben stronger, richer, and darker. Okay. So, it's like a it's coffee. Okay. Yeah, I'd have to taste it, but again, it's going to be Ghost. It's going to be Ghost.

[6:33:59] like uh Oh, Ben says it's great. Thank you there, Ben. Okay, I'll have to give that a shot. I'll 100% have to give that a shot. So, again, Ghost, you have to man. There it is again. There it is again. Like, if I'm looking for like

[6:34:13] some hardcore pre-workout, which your boy does from time to time, Ghost is not going to give me that. So, I understand its limitations. Like if I'm looking for like, you know, uh shout out to my Ephedan users back in the day. You guys

[6:34:25] before they banned it because I'm 45. And so like when I was like 18, 19, 20 when a Federan was like really hot in like the you know the pre-workout market and all that stuff like that that was my first experience with pre-workout. And I

[6:34:39] training at like 5:00 a.m. in the morning. And I would drink a Rip Force, a grape Rip Force or like a lemon uh rip ripped force, not forced, ripped force, grape or lemon lime. I'd slam one. I trained for like three hours and then I

[6:34:55] would just like keep training throughout my day. Like the entire day was just continuing to train. Like I had so I had so much energy because the federates right? So, you know, they they outlawed it and they did all those things. And

[6:35:08] so, competing as a natural bodybuilder, I mean, I I I couldn't take it anymore after a couple of years, which was really really sad. Uh, but some of the some of the pre-workouts these days without a veteran is still really really

[6:35:20] sound like Cuban coffee is going to be that, but uh but it could be uh it could guys and thank you Ben for bringing that in. Uh but uh point B, getting back to point B's question. [laughter] We are in mid-season 4. Uh why does assignment

[6:35:36] stock is deep in the money or can it happen sooner? Yeah. So remember assignment is on the the long side of the contract. The long side of the of the put or the call, whatever it was. He or she doesn't know what you have on. So

[6:35:49] I mean how it impacts you, the other side, it doesn't really matter to them. that's when the other side may choose to exercise the option because they want to take that share position whether it be long or short. And so out of the money

[6:36:02] options can be assigned, but it's very rare. In the money options can also are a lot more likely to be assigned. And again, remember whenever the long side uh does exercise and assign you as the short side of the contract, the long

[6:36:16] why we're always looking at the extrinsic value to try to determine the likelihood of assignment. And as long as the extrinsic value is reasonably high and which I would say usually anything over 10 or 15 cents is enough to kind of

[6:36:30] ward off those exercises, uh the likelihood of assignment is very nothing to do with whether or not I'm defined risk because the other side doesn't know what I have on. Uh and so uh hopefully that helps. Uh Adam

[6:36:44] Yeah, I gota I gota I got to hit the brakes at some point and so I think I appreciate you Adam Adam Armfield. appreciate you very much. Uh Samuel, I earn you some Beus. I know. I can't either, man. I really can't. I mean,

[6:36:58] Chipotle still owes us like $1,000, I think. But, uh but we'll take a couple hundred from today. Uh that's really not bad. We got what or maybe a hundred, I guess, right? Yeah, we got uh Yeah, we got $115 from the trade. So, that's not

[6:37:11] bad. Uh that's a few BEu and a few BEu going into the weekend. I mean, this is the time, right? This is the time to wrangle up the BEUs for sure. Uh let's see. Uh, Point B says, "Afternoon to Ben." Yes. Uh, Ben's doing an amazing

[6:37:24] job, man. Ben and Roberto. And I mean, just they're all doing incredible. Uh, crash. Bulls are going to take the W today, I think. Yeah, they might. I mean, and by might, I mean, if they can't do it now, when can they do it?

[6:37:38] they going to be able to get it done? EMP is up 117, NASDAQ up 900. Like, let's go. Uh, and which is also funny. I I I actually here's one other thing. So the

[6:37:52] This is where the outlier moves oftentimes happen to the downside. Your outlier moves in the market like the soul suckers and you know the the eyeball melters are typically to the downside, but they will happen to the

[6:38:04] upside from time to time as well. And I would say today for the NASDAQ being up what 3 and a half%. Yeah, three and a quarter%. This is an outlier move to the upside for sure. But one thing I've noticed, these type of moves, they

[6:38:16] rarely come out of nowhere. They rarely are like not attached to some equally formidable down move that just happened, right? And so it's pretty rare that like on a random Wednesday or just some off Thursday, you know, the NASDAQ shoots up

[6:38:32] 3%. Even on like really good news, right? Amazing news, like everything is 60 basis points or whatever, right? That's just that's the whole kind of, of thing. But sometimes the market will take the elevator up. Well, when does it

[6:38:46] like to take the elevator up? After it just took the elevator down. And so a lower like there has been in the market recently. That's when I'm always kind of like, all right, you know, this is when you got to kind of be on the lookout for

[6:38:59] that soul sucker to the upside, which isn't really a soul sucker because we're basically right back to where we were, you know, two days ago. And so, uh, just a couple couple of random thoughts there, but uh, let's see. Weiss in the

[6:39:11] Dr. Jim, we're managing a high implied volatility rank in IVX tickers such as BE I think that's that's bloom energy right strangle managed nine times the P&L becomes confusing how accurate is the extrinsic uh after that many

[6:39:24] management's adding premium great question so couple of things so number totally accurate like whatever the extrinsic value shows you in the position like that's what it is but in terms of you kind of have two separate

[6:39:37] value whatever you see on your screen that's the extrinsic value that you have that's I don't know if that's exactly what you're asking. Uh that's at least little bit. But I think the actual spirit of what you're wanting to get at

[6:39:51] is how do I make sense of what's going on? Like how do I make sense of where I'm at? How do I make sense of, you know, uh how I how I got here? How do I make sense of what I want to do? And so I'll give you two answers. Number one, I

[6:40:03] which you're already there, which is awesome. Uh I have a rolling crash rolling. and I actually address this exact situation like midway through the look. But then number two, one thing that can be helpful to keep in mind is

[6:40:17] you can always go back into the activity tab. The change will get you there most of the time, but sometimes again you go to hit Rooster and you get Carly Ray Jeepson, right? You go to hit, you know, Dem Bones and you get Taylor Swift. Like

[6:40:29] like you're always going to be set straight. Like you're always going to be activity tab and just roll up your sleeves and just grab pencil and paper and figure out where you're at on the trade and just net together all the

[6:40:43] credits and all the debits of the strategy to this point. That tells you your basis on the trade right now. So let's say for example, you said you rolled it nine times. Let's say, for example, your basis on the trade is a

[6:40:57] $10 credit, let's just say. Then you compare that up against what is the mark price of the strangle right now. So, if I have a $10 credit and the mark price of the strangle right now is $12, that means that if I go to buy it back, I'm

[6:41:10] going to buy it back for 12. I picked up 10. I'm going to lose two, right? If on the other hand, my credit collected so far is 10 still, but the mark price of the strangle is eight. Let's say now I can buy it back for eight. I've

[6:41:24] collected 10. I actually make $2. So use those examples that I just threw out there as kind of weigh stations to figure out uh you know the actual And so hopefully that uh that helps a little bit. Uh BBB Fine is here. Uh

[6:41:40] Jersey Mike IPO. Wow. Jersey Mike's is doing it now. I mean they're just giving tickers out, man. Jersey Mike's is doing tickers out, man. Jersey Mike's is doing it. Is it When is the IPO? JM and I

[6:41:52] gotta run, I think. And by I think I mean I have to run JMK. Oh, it's actually out there now. Like it's actually live. Wow. I mean, I'm not I may trade the product. I mean, we can mess around with it a little bit. But,

[6:42:06] uh, wow, man. Absolutely unequivocally crazy stuff. But I see you guys in the chat. I appreciate you guys so very much, man. Ryan is here. BBB Fine is here. Look at Neil. Look at Shane, man. Sergio, Loris, Doc. I appreciate you

[6:42:19] guys so much. If I can ever help you guys in any way, shoot me an email. I am J [email protected] or we can connect on Twitter. I'm J Schultz F3. I there as well. But stay tuned. We do have Tim Knight coming up next with

[6:42:32] guys, trade them small, trade them heavy, and stay generous. We'll see you heavy, and stay generous. We'll see you guys tomorrow.

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[6:45:04] have got an extremely green day on our hands after all the selling that's been going on. It's a big reversal today. Um, since I'm talking about the charts, let's go to the charts right away because I want to start off with the

[6:45:16] brutal one here, which is the ES. So, let's say a few things about this. This is, of course, the SB500 futures chart. And we've been locked in a range here And we've been locked in a range here since early May. And in recent weeks, we

[6:45:29] have been downtrending. And that reached kind of a selling climax yesterday. And today, we undid all of yesterday's selling. and we're basically back to where we were uh on say you know basically the highs of Tuesday. So this

[6:45:44] this is the biggest green bar we've seen probably since uh this June 11 one right here. I would also point out an interesting similarity between this pair and this pair here which is in this instance we were in an uptrend. We broke

[6:45:59] the uptrend. fell really hard and we bottomed here and then the next day we had a huge rally and then that was followed on by more uh buying basically followed on by more uh buying basically lifetime highs. Um could the same thing

[6:46:13] happen here? Well, of course, for a couple reasons. One, even at its worst, this is a higher low. So, the selling didn't even match what we had back here. didn't even match what we had back here. Uh plus, the weakness in technology has

[6:46:26] been exceptional in recent weeks. And so and plus earnings season is just about done. I mean in a few hours the meat of it will be behind us and we'll be into the boring stuff. So um we could lose those reasons for any selling because

[6:46:40] the earning season will have passed without any really terrible uh disaster. So yeah it could happen. There is a distinction I would say between what happened here and what is happening here which is one this fall was very quick.

[6:46:54] there were really just basically two big red bars that constituted the entirety of the fall. This is a little more sustained. This lasted a couple of sustained. This lasted a couple of weeks. Uh I would also say that um for

[6:47:07] the the the underpinning of this bull market has been tech and if that does resume its weakness, I think you'll just see the start to break down again. But Beatles outfit for me today. There was no followthrough on yesterday's selling.

[6:47:22] no followthrough on yesterday's selling. Uh, I lightened up some yesterday. I got lightened up this morning first thing because if you saw me this morning, I mentioned the ding ding ding ding ding ding hearing the stop losses get

[6:47:34] executed. So, a lot lighter than I was. Uh, my peak commitment was like at 240% or something crazy. I'm like at 95% now. Uh, no margin. Um, most of the cash deployed. Um, but definitely have

[6:47:52] lightened up and taken profits on the on the ones that just gotten just blasted and like today alone are up 25% because there's that's far as dead cap bounces go. These are really dead cats with a long way to bounce. So that's kind of

[6:48:07] the look of the ES. We're still rangebound May, June, July, we'll be heading into August. One day we'll escape. Hasn't happened yet. U the diamonds. This was a short I executed yesterday at good prices still

[6:48:21] profitable even with this massive rally this is still in a profit but that stop is right there. Uh if it pushes past that I won't be in that trade anymore. Uh but as I said managed to get a good price and going to stick with it unless

[6:48:35] and until it violates that that um that [clears throat] price gap and some there was any selling. uh EFA for example, this is the um equity basically

[6:48:47] worldwide equity uh outside of North America lifetime highs and and even through all these months it's just uh kind of shrugging at shoulders really very very little motion and just a burst higher today to lifetime highs. So

[6:49:03] higher today to lifetime highs. So pretty extraordinary there. Um couple of Chinese stocks I remain short and almost everything's green today. I mean, I I everything's green today. I mean, I I I've gone from like 43 positions down to

[6:49:15] I've gone from like 43 positions down to um 28. And of those 28, there's maybe six that I read today. Uh but on the whole, it's green. Um here's Alibaba, for example. And let's let's just click on the all data here. Sometimes it takes

[6:49:30] a while to load, but uh let's just get a big bigger picture of um of Alibaba, big bigger picture of um of Alibaba, please. No. Okay, maybe not. Um, but uh, there is to it. So, that's fine. We'll go back to the one-year and then buy

[6:49:45] DBU. This one is up today a little more than 2%. Um, let's try the all on that than 2%. Um, let's try the all on that one. See if that works. There we go. Um, rangeb obviously for 15 years, believe it or not. Um, but I'm sticking with

[6:50:00] it or not. Um, but I'm sticking with those two. Um, now next week, as as I've kind of wraps up after Apple. That's kind of the the um the swan song every quarter, but there are plenty of companies still, smaller companies that

[6:50:15] will be reporting. The one that'll get probably the most attention next week will be SpaceX cuz it is their first uh earnings call. And of course, their are looking for either they're going to be looking with interest to see will it

[6:50:30] finally have a reason to pop higher or will the reason for all the selling become clear and it gets punched down even lower as it is at the moment. Let's change this back to a daily one-year chart. Um and the trend lines moved. How

[6:50:43] about that? Let's just try to adjust that a little bit. I'd like this to be accurate. So bear with me for a sec. You know what? We'll just start over. I'm going to say goodbye to that and get the ray and then like that and like that.

[6:50:56] ray and then like that and like that. There we go. So, we were in a downtrend essentially for the life of the security. That may have changed on Tuesday. We had a nice little green bar there. And since then, although stock's

[6:51:08] there. And since then, although stock's really gone nowhere all week, um it at least has managed to stop falling. And in a very subtle fashion, we've at least put in this is the lifetime low so far. little bit of a higher low, a little bit

[6:51:21] bleeding is at least stopped and it'll probably just kind of stick around there until Tuesday afternoon. Um there have been other very young offerings too that

[6:51:33] been other very young offerings too that uh show that SpaceX is not alone in this. Um CBRS Cabris uh fell and fell and fell and finally found some measure of stability and it's been stable at least for about a month. Really not much

[6:51:48] younger one. There's some old dead data there. Let's just hide that. Bending spoon. Uh this too came public and uh with a lot of fanfare on the first day and since then has sort of found its own

[6:52:03] equilibrium in the lower 30s. So it takes time. It takes several quarters of takes time. It takes several quarters of earnings reports. Um, and it also it kind of doesn't make it easy to tease out what's going on with SpaceX because

[6:52:15] out what's going on with SpaceX because four or 5% of their entire um, shares are actually out there as a free as as the float. So selling it off is kind of easy and buying it up is kind of easy because

[6:52:28] there's not a whole lot that most of the company isn't even out there. So with such a small pool up or down, it's going to be more exaggerated than let's say if every single portion of the company were

[6:52:41] out there available in the public markets. Um but we'll all be watching that Tuesday afternoon and of course uh on Wednesday I'll chime in with it with my reaction to whatever just took place. Um you may have heard yesterday we had a

[6:52:55] Um you may have heard yesterday we had a like,200 point collapse in the Dow. um like,200 point collapse in the Dow. um Kevin Worsh uh did his thing and it's a noticed about these FOMO meetings irrespective of who the chair is that uh

[6:53:10] there's something very unlucky about walking away from the podium u and there's something very lucky about being at the podium cuz invariably market won't care half an hour later whoever it is walks up to the podium the

[6:53:23] market starts rallying and in his case just exploded higher much. Have a good day." And he left and then everything collapsed. Um, word on job communicating and and he should have raised interest rates and all this. Um,

[6:53:40] that criticism probably hasn't stuck very much because we've undone almost all of the drop from yesterday and in some cases then some. But you can see here from the ZB, the bond market. We did have a pretty hard tumble yesterday

[6:53:54] and it's it's augmenting that fall today. Um we're down not quite a percent and looking at the uh the big picture of the ZB you can see that we have been in

[6:54:06] a bare market on this for the past 6 years. Um and rates got lower and lower and lower and lower lower and lower basically hit zero and then the bond market's just been a mess since then.

[6:54:18] And I don't see any particular reason why it's uh the selling may necessarily why it's uh the selling may necessarily be done because as you look at the history of it, we are teasing around uh the lowest levels of this chart and I

[6:54:32] right triangle on this one as well. So if we break below these kinds of lows that we've seen between 2023 and and the that we've seen between 2023 and and the present um rates are going to just fly

[6:54:45] higher 5 6 7% and onwards. Um at the moment the the market's reaction seems moment the the market's reaction seems to be uh non-thrilled with with what happened yesterday. Uh with these rates going up um the equities that are

[6:54:59] affected by higher rates are in some cases sinking. This is LAR. This is my uh only housing short. This is down a little bit about a third of a u of a percent. And I've shared this chart before. Um, just longterm, I do see a

[6:55:14] nice big top on that. Kind of like we had seen back here, which is just about as clean as you can get from a head and shoulders top. This is, of course, before the um the financial crisis, the housing bubble

[6:55:26] bursting. But you can see how these are rather similar. And you can also see how it took many, many, many months for this thing to unwind after its top. Uh, as

[6:55:38] far as the cubes go, let's zoom back in on those. Uh, obviously a big rally, very big, almost three and a half%. But, uh, this is a pretty substantial But, uh, this is a pretty substantial top. And as I've said before, when

[6:55:52] things fall very, very swiftly, it's not that hard to get them back up. Um, and as you reach that massive overhead supply, it's it's not so simple. And so

[6:56:04] in this instance, in this instance, we've got this top that was established between early May and few days ago and we broke hard. We hit the lowest level yesterday that we've seen and basically closed at the

[6:56:18] low and then completely shrugged it off overnight. But my point here is that don't think happy days are here again. This is sub a substantial break and unless it just resolutely powers its way through this entire uh rectangle then

[6:56:35] watch out because it will exhaust itself um at some point. You can see this reflected also with semiconductors. Um you know I did not start shorting this messing around with the stuff around here and lost in a lot of cases, but I

[6:56:53] just I remembered so clearly this day it was we were on our morning program and I the trend line. This could be a great place to short and that that was the top and then it basically didn't look back from then. But we have since that time

[6:57:08] from then. But we have since that time had rallies here and here and here. had rallies here and here and here. Don't think that today's one day rally Don't think that today's one day rally is uh forget what I said you know top

[6:57:20] doesn't exist. No the top is very much in place. This is a retracement to those patterns and that's one of the reasons I tried to lighten up yesterday and again got lightened up this morning and uh I'll be looking to reenter some of those

[6:57:34] I'll be looking to reenter some of those positions at the proper price levels. Um some of the options I've got and as I've said before these are January in one case even March next year options. Um I've got [clears throat] uh Caterpillar

[6:57:48] cat had a nice fall yesterday. Again beautiful pattern. Yes, it's up $25 today. Doesn't change a thing about the chart. Uh Carvana um this reported earnings last night. We are down $64 [music]

[6:58:03] on this and I lightened up some, but I kept most of the position because again, on to these for what I think will be better uh results. Uh I've not stopped tilting at the FXI windmill. I don't

[6:58:17] short it anymore. I'm long. This is the March options. I'm giving myself a ton of time on these. Um if we push past this gap, forget it. I'll probably never mention this symbol again. But as it is now, uh I am very interested to see if

[6:58:31] now, uh I am very interested to see if we can stay below that price gap. Uh also got puts on GE which is GE Aerospace. Uh yesterday uh bought puts on Google and God bless it. It's down. Can you believe it? The

[6:58:46] NQ is up almost a,000 points and Alphabet's actually down. So [clears throat] thank you. It's nice to see that work out. Uh so yeah, I bought those yesterday. Uh Shopify, this is

[6:58:59] also down. God bless this one too, almost 5%. Uh here again with the Dow up uh nearly quadruple digits, but Shopify is sinking. Uh United Healthcare is up a

[6:59:12] little bit but has turned away from this pop it had um last week. So that's that's positive. You know, I don't have much to say about tonight's earnings down cuz I could use some help tomorrow. But, uh, the charts to me just aren't

[6:59:27] either of these. Amazon. The only thing I'll note is, uh, we've got a a price gap here. Um, I did, by the way, I was short Meta yesterday, as I said. Covered this morning. Thank you, Meta. Good profit

[6:59:41] out. Uh, so that worked out nicely. I also had said Microsoft was so beaten I'd probably rally. That worked out, too. I wasn't long it, but my stupid guess of short Meta, long Microsoft, that was two for two. I don't have very

[6:59:54] strong feelings about either of these. Um, Amazon, as I said, the only chart Apple, they're kind of priced for perfection. This is a $5 trillion [clears throat] company. I wouldn't dare get in the way of it, but as big as it

[7:00:09] is, I don't think the move is going to be that substantial, Dion. So, I'll be watching with interest, but that's about it. Um, wrapping up, here's the InQ. And this has been my buddy for weeks now. It is not my friend today, but the longer

[7:00:24] term chart to me says you got a counter trend rally. We're mashed up against resistance. If we can turn lower tomorrow, even modestly, that'd be a very positive sign for the bears. And now I'm hearing echoes like I've turned

[7:00:40] into Jimmy Hendricks. Okay, that's enough. Uh I I'll just say this last sentence or two. This looks really good. So long as it just doesn't keep on keeping on. We had six red bars in a row. We've got one massive green bar

[7:00:54] today. And uh I'd appreciate it if you would just stop because uh this is enough to undo the sinkage. So we'll see how it this point. We'll see how it works out tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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[7:02:47] >> Hey, bring the alarm, boys. Turn up the charm. Listen up, y'all. Get out the damn song. It's the last call. >> Hey, the last call. The last call. >> We are back. Final 30 minutes of the trading day here on Tasty Live. You're

[7:03:02] watching Last Call. The last call featuring the man himself, TP Tom Preston. I'm Chris Veio. TP, we are within the hour, the final hour of trading. Well, not for the equity markets themselves, at least the cash

[7:03:14] ones, but the final hour before we get both Amazon and Apple due out here. >> Stocks are not looking back right now. 3.3% higher on the NASDAQ here. Uh could talk about a liquidation of a major tech fund. Either way, whatever

[7:03:29] your narrative is, TP, the price action speaks for itself. Big volumes in the market, both in ES and NQ futures. What happened here after yesterday? happened here after yesterday? >> Well, so it's I did a lot of earnings

[7:03:43] trades. Um, I got smoked on my short call spread in in Microsoft. That trade's not done yet, Chris. I still have one day to go. And, you know, Microsoft could drop 70 bucks tomorrow. Probably won't, but it could. So, I'm

[7:03:57] gonna hang on to that. I did, and I'm trying to think of what I had on or what I did specifically that were earnings related. Starbucks. Um, I short the

[7:04:09] Where is Starbucks for me? I'm sorry. There we go. I'm short the 107 109. It was looking pretty ugly last night. Starbucks was up to like 112. just trades. But now it's slunk back beneath my short call strike. I'm okay

[7:04:26] with that. Um, what else did I do earnings-wise? I took off Meta. Meta I sold a call spread in there. Took profits in that.

[7:04:38] Uh, took profits on the short um Carvana call spread. I sold um just going down the list. I can't and I did a lot of a lot of trading activity, so it's hard for me to pull everything out. Dell massive rally up. Saving my little short

[7:04:54] massive rally up. Saving my little short put spread in there. I was short the um 387 half 392 put spread as part of an iron condor that I put on last week. Covered the short call spread. Um bought that back

[7:05:08] and I was left sitting with this short put spread that was looking ugly. Okay, fine. You know, it stinks. Dull stinks. I stink. Whatever. And now we get this 40 point rally. Dells up what percentage?

[7:05:21] >> 10. >> I'll take that. Okay, [laughter] >> I got my own I got my own save trade here today and that's Western Digital

[7:05:33] >> DC do >> uh well it's backups 15% itself. I was sitting short the 500 510 put spread here and was looking very much not DTE. >> So I I might take this off for a small

[7:05:48] max loss. >> Oh yeah, 100% 100%. And this is this is the whole point about trading around earnings and I is for me it's yeah I

[7:06:01] think on balance and I'd have to go through all the all the trades and stuff on balance I'm up a little bit over the past few days just trading earnings but a little bit um you know it's not those aren't my bread and butter making money

[7:06:14] sorts of trades that that I do mostly in S&Ps you know crude oil things like that S&Ps you know crude oil things like that um bonds but the but earnings are good

[7:06:26] to keep me current and also Chris Chris you know you you have this library of knowledge about the macro influences on markets and this this is what's affecting that this relationship that relationship but the bottom line is

[7:06:41] sometimes earnings gets you out of you know just it just brings you brings your focus into what's going on right now >> well TP if uh you two spend several years spending 400 hours per year uh studying for the CFA and failing along

[7:06:57] the way. So, you get to throw in an extra year of 400 hours and [laughter] you too can have this kind of knowledge that rattles around your head aimlessly, ask my wife uh to memorize all the formulas. I think there's like 400 uh

[7:07:11] distinct formulas for the CFA over the three levels. I would write them all on paper and tape them around our apartment like inside cabinets. That way, wherever reminder. So, they were getting burned in my brain. Uh, it worked.

[7:07:25] >> That is a That is That is a testament to your wife's patience. Good for her. Um, it's, you know, anybody that gets a that gets a little bit to that. I don't know Mind with Russell Crow. >> Unfortunately, I hope not to be the

[7:07:40] >> See, you Well, yeah, if if you didn't see the movie. So, Russell Crow, I for what was the guy's name? He was a mathematician kind of a yeah I mean obviously a mathematical genius right but as far as you know the in the

[7:07:55] pantheon of mathematicians I guess he's kind he's up there but not I guess the kind he's up there but not I guess the top whatever anyway he was veering on top whatever anyway he was veering on psychosis and um he would just tape all

[7:08:07] the stuff he'd have these wild you know theories and stuff and he would just paste his walls would be covered with formulas and sketches and drawings and all this stuff. He was he was wacky. He was a wacky guy. I guess he sorted

[7:08:21] himself out, but he uh what was his gosh, I can't remember his name, but he >> John. Thank you. Thank you. >> He was killed in a car accident coming back from a conference. I think the Nobel conference a few years ago, like

[7:08:35] a car accident outside of Newark like 10 years ago. I remember this being in the Beautiful Mind, but >> yeah. and he, you know, he was instrumental in a lot of, you know, game theory and stuff. It's just awesome

[7:08:50] >> oh yeah, folks should look up Nash equilibrium. It's all about working uh in concert together with your peers when you're competing for desired outcomes. >> So, that's what we're faced with. How did I even bring that up? Pacing stuff

[7:09:04] against pacing stuff on walls. I've never done that. Um, unfortunately, I keep a lot of this stuff in my head. Um, and just sort of like, you know, I know just whatever. Anyway, so

[7:09:20] Chris, you were saying that is it Amazon coming right after the close and Apple's reversed? >> We have Amazon right at the top of the hour. It looks like it's going to be then uh uh your Apple Let me just double

[7:09:33] same time here. Okay, Amazon is supposedly reset right at 4:00. So shortly thereafter, 4 Eastern, 3 central. And then you get Amazon 30 uh uh Apple 30 minutes later. So I mean it creates this barbell for the earnings

[7:09:47] of them all in quick order and then you can kind of move on with your day. You longer than you would would like to be if you're trading them. >> So with Amazon so Amazon I when I was doing my 1:00 uh trading trading segment

[7:10:02] doing my 1:00 uh trading trading segment I sold the 245 247 half call spread with I sold the 245 247 half call spread with one day to go in Amazon. sold it for 82 cents. I did a quick survey of the participants. They said uh I said

[7:10:15] bullish, bearish, Amazon, they said bearish. I had, you know, basically two fine. That wins for me. So, I sold a call spread in there. Um Apple, I sold a put spread. I sold the uh 327 half, 325.

[7:10:32] I should say that in reverse. The 325 uh 327 half put spread. Bought the 25. Sold the 27 halves. did that for 77 cents. That's what I could get for it. I wanted to get a little bit more but couldn't. >> Um, o I think coin is also reporting

[7:10:48] >> Yeah. Producers, can we put up the earnings calendar that we've been that possible to get that up on the screen here? We'll get that working out folks can see the overview. >> I sold

[7:11:02] coin. I sold the 5557 half the one bought the 155 puts. sold half the one bought the 155 puts. sold the 157 H took in 89 cents and that was

[7:11:14] that was right in my um right you know the third of the width of the strikes for credit that's right there so that's those are just you know do I have any real knowledge about any of these stocks absolutely not none zero it's just hey I

[7:11:30] have a defined risk trade on fire away that's it that are reporting after hours here You have Apple and Amazon and you have a Striker Group. I'm just going down the line by market cap. You mentioned O, got

[7:11:44] mentioned Coinbase whose market cap is about 42 billion. The only other thing that's in that realm, um, you could trade Roblox, Reddit, uh, Micro Strategy for the daring and willing, but Live Nation, LY, which is another one of

[7:11:59] these kind of like consumer plays here, TP. I had this on my watch list uh, between its one month and it 50-day moving average, and it's in the middle of, I think, what appears to be bottom left to top right on the screen. So, I

[7:12:11] ultimately like the prices. There wasn't a ton of volatility. I'd have to reach a little bit too far out of the money on some calls, so I let it slide. But it's Give us something to look at right now in Live Nation. Something obviously

[7:12:25] >> Don't look at all the markets stink. >> And that's what I suggest. >> I'm sorry. I'm sorry, kids. The I hate to So looking at the just the one days cuz the one days are the best of them all and they stink. So, the 180 puts are

[7:12:42] all and they stink. So, the 180 puts are 225 bid at 460 with 191 contracts of open interest. The live nation, I I wouldn't even bother. Mainly, even if I'm filled, Chris, isn't even if I'm filled on a on a spread in there. Um, it

[7:12:58] >> It'd be too hard to get out. You know, I'd have to probably pay up to get out. It's It's not worth it. Let's try What else would you mention? Reddit. Uh yeah, you do have Reddit here coming out too. Reddit, uh Micro Strategy, Roblox here.

[7:13:13] Roblox have a little bit more trading volume to them. The >> Reddit's Yeah, Reddit's Reddit's not horrible. Let's see. What are we doing horrible. Let's see. What are we doing with with Reddit? Stock's 179 bucks. So,

[7:13:26] let's see. Reddit, >> but ask is a bit tighter. 50 cents, not >> Yeah, there's there's decent open interest. What are you bullish or me give me a pick. Uh, I'll uh, yeah, I'm I'm with the

[7:13:39] apes. Bullish. >> You're bullish. All right, I'll sell the >> You're bullish. All right, I'll sell the I'll do the 6567 half 75 cents. That's pretty close. That's close enough. Buying the 165 put. Sell this 167 half.

[7:13:52] 75 cents. Review and send. Submit. Filled. Filled to 75 75. All right. What's another one? Um, Roblox. >> Striker. Roblox. We can go to Roblox liquid. >> Roblox. Roblox has been hammered. Um,

[7:14:09] I'm not a charting guy, but yeah, it's been it's just been kind of in the doghouse for a while. That's with a $48 stock price. Yeah, the markets aren't horrible given its 300% volatility.

[7:14:27] its 300% volatility. [laughter] Chris is the 15 million shares have traded um which which is shows you and so like the 47 puts with one day 239 to 271 that's pretty wide. The market

[7:14:42] makers despite the liquidity in the stocks are are keeping them high wide and handsome. They just want you anytime you're a market maker you're not sure what you know what your hedge might be or how fast the underlying might move

[7:14:54] or how fast the underlying might move and with 300% volatility that's a lot. you just widen out your bid ask spreads. Um the stocks are 48 4825. So right in between 48 and 48 half. Let's see. Down a buck, up a buck. Um yeah, the skews

[7:15:11] Chris, what do you think? Bullish, bearish, and Roblox. there. I don't think mommy and daddy are letting the kids play with uh play with the toys here. But you mentioned >> what is Roblox anyway? What is it? an

[7:15:25] online digital worldbuing game kind of like Minecraft. My cousins play it. It's not my cup of tea. Um >> you mentioned the pricing here. My expected move right now, you're not really getting paid for a dollar wide

[7:15:39] >> strike. Um if you go on the other end to look to see if you could do like an iron condor, listen, if you want to play for an expected move here, uh that is cents a credit. Okay. Risking three to make two $60 for 40 bucks.

[7:15:53] So if I go if the expected move is six bucks that would put it up to what 40 54 >> Yeah. >> So the 54 56. Yeah.

[7:16:07] Not a lot in there. Not a lot. I'm going to pass on. I'm going to pass on Roblox. >> Um one of the things I did do I sold a call spread in the Euro 6E. I sold with

[7:16:22] call spread in the Euro 6E. I sold with 8 days to go. I sold the 116 116 half 8 days to go. I sold the 116 116 half call spread. Uh took in what did I do that for? Uh [snorts]

[7:16:40] So right basically a tick worse than what you have it loaded up in there. Now, um I just think it's I just think the rally or this crash in the dollar I raising interest rates fast enough or something like that. Dollar's crashing.

[7:16:57] Euro's rallying. I was saved by I'm long the yen, short the Canada dollar. So, I was saved today by the spike in spike in the yen. Um losing my Canada.

[7:17:09] what happened >> in what the yen. Yeah, there was an intervention today in the end. I mean, timing wise, I guess they get their right? >> Uh, after yesterday's press conference

[7:17:21] and oil's off, Ministry of Finance takes their shot. It's been all over my traders. BOJ's intervening. >> Let's let's hear for the intervention because that's saved by a little short put spread in there. On the other hand,

[7:17:35] so what is that carrying over to the euro? Is that what the story is? There the euro because mechanically the ministry of finance working with the Fed works to sell dollars and uh push obviously push the yen up but sell

[7:17:49] dollars against a basket of currencies to help accomplish this. >> Fair enough. Then I uh see no reason why the euro should continue to rally. So I Divine trade >> decent metrics

[7:18:05] >> makes sense to me. Hey TP, uh we're going into the final 15, less than that of trading here today. 2832 on our NASDAQ, which is still a high flyer, up 3.25%, S&P up 1.6, not getting the love. Did

[7:18:18] rotation day that we were having yesterday. When you take a look around the horn, RSP, that equal weighted S&P, that beloved equal weighted S&P, it's >> Yeah. >> Um number of stocks setting new highs

[7:18:31] today in the broader market. Uh I see here only 120 in the S&P 500. >> that is not more than half. >> That's pitiful. That's pitiful. And and

[7:18:44] those sorts of things are called market internals that aren't necessarily im you internals that aren't necessarily im you know visible immediately by looking at a to do a little bit of digging. That's what I call a market internal. Um and it

[7:19:00] information. I sold call spread in Q's today. Um I wrote about it in my cherry bomb. I had to adjust the strikes higher uh because the Q's were up so much on the open. But I sold a call spread in the cues just

[7:19:15] because I think okay I think we could chop around a little bit. Um and this is this rally today. Why is it an earnings rally? Probably not. You know, I just

[7:19:27] think Chris, just like you said, it's what 20% of the stocks are making new highs. That's that's that's kind of slint. That's pretty pathetic. line has come in a little bit today. So, breath is actually worse across the

[7:19:41] board. And you can kind of see it in the performance here. The NASDAQ's up 3.25. It's more than double the Russell, the S&P, anything else. Um, what do you make of this move though? I mean it's if you're a memory trader right now, you

[7:19:54] are having horrible whiplash here. TP Sandis is up [laughter] >> like the I don't think the astounding part is that it's up 25% today. I think the astounding part is that it still has not gotten back to where it closed on

[7:20:09] Monday yet. >> No, it's SanDisk. [laughter] SanDisk is a dog. It is it's it you know what used to be what 2,400 bucks or something like that. Now it's half that. So yeah, this rally is is is a drop in the bucket

[7:20:25] rally is is is a drop in the bucket relatively speaking. Um it's I mean I don't know. Could I trade it? Yeah, I mean earnings are coming out next on August 5th. What's that? A Wednesday. >> Next Wednesday.

[7:20:38] >> Next Wednesday. >> Um I could do a one day, but SanDisk, you know, it's I don't know. I haven't traded SanDisk in a while. I remember I think I'm down money on the year in SanDisk. Um and by

[7:20:54] the way if you look if you want if you're playing at home um one of the easy things if you go to the trade page Chris for SanDisk show the options >> and open up the one days or whatever one day is fine.

[7:21:09] >> Um you can see you see that brown bar in the middle. >> I want to point that out. That is where the expected move is. Okay. So, if you

[7:21:22] take SanDisk's price 1268, add and subtract 117 to it, that should get you kind of close to where the that brown band is. So, if you don't want to do the

[7:21:36] math in your head, and I don't blame you if you don't, um you can just look on there and see where it is. It's a very quick way to evaluate um where the expected move is based on the straddle strangle prices. That's what that number

[7:21:51] >> And right now the expected move in SanDisk is already back down to 1150 for tomorrow. So not for the faint of heart. What quick 8 and a half% potential one >> Yep. I mean >> they don't have earnings. This is just

[7:22:05] >> this is the sand coming in. >> This is just sand. >> Um well that's what it is. when the options have 234% implied volatility. I mean, it's but the markets are tight in there. You know what? I have to reward

[7:22:19] something. What do you think? Is it going to go higher tomorrow? think, Chris? >> Um, bullish because I'm I'm >> All right. I'm going to sell I'm going to sell the 1145 1150 for a dollar

[7:22:33] credit. Dollar five credit. Now, let's try a$15. Dollar five. Submit. submitted submitted >> it a dollar. Build it a dollar five. Um

[7:22:46] and again these are for me these are all defined risk trades. I part part of you know yeah could I do naked short options? Yeah. I mean I could I don't want to though. I don't want to take the risk. I don't want to think about it. I

[7:23:01] don't want to think about it. If SanDisk collapses, I have a defined risk trade. That's good enough for me, especially with, you know, a bunch of earning stuff still coming out. Hey, Chris, looking at tomorrow's numbers.

[7:23:16] >> sure. Lots of stuff in the morning. >> Well, we have a Abbev, we have Chevron, we have Eaton and Enbridge, Colgate, Palm Olive. Palm Olive. Beyond that, I don't see we have Kamo

[7:23:31] CCJ. I'm short a put call spread, excuse me. No, short a put spread, excuse me. Um, in CCJ, so I've been hanging on to that. Right now, I'm short the 8082 put

[7:23:43] spread with a week to go. Um, I'm up 40% on that trade. So, I'm just hanging on for that 50%. If we get a rally tomorrow, I'll probably get the 50%, which case I'll just take it off. I don't have a strong opinion about CCJ

[7:23:58] necessarily. >> No. And a few names here. Exon Mobile, Chevron, right? Uh you're talking about big names in terms of energy there. Abby, uh Eat Incorporation, Nbridge, Colgate Pal of Nat West Group. I'm just

[7:24:12] going down the line by market cap here. Dominion Energy, Tro Price, Madna, which not the Madna that we knew years ago. >> That's really it. And then you're getting into some really market caps are start to really shrink here with very

[7:24:27] >> likely and just sort of I mean what I do is I go down you know there's a bunch of lists out there of earnings calendars and I don't need to see the details. I don't care what the analyst expectations are. I just go onto the platform, open

[7:24:40] up the options and see what has liquidity. That's that's it. That's it. liquidity. That's that's it. That's it. Um and right now Madna is not bad but names aren't bad and kind of not great either. I I'm just eyeballing this here.

[7:24:53] either. I I'm just eyeballing this here. Exon Mobile 79 IVR raw volatility for tomorrow 57%. What didn't we just have a name here that had one day V of 300%. >> Yeah. Well, there was what? SanDisk or um

[7:25:06] SanDisk was 230. What What were we looking at? What were we looking at on Reddit? >> Reddit. Reddit or Roblox? I think it was >> Yeah, Roblox. >> Roblox 321%.

[7:25:18] >> Okay. >> So, before the open. >> Tomorrow morning. So, yeah, actually

[7:25:30] yeah, the markets are not bad in Exxon. And considering the one days, you know, they're 25 30 cents. They're not great. Actually, the call on the call side, they're tighter than the put side little

[7:25:45] bit. They're not bad, but I would go out to let's say 22 days. Exon Mobile $57.

[7:25:57] I mean, the market the skews pointed towards the downside a little bit. A little bit. Um, you know, if the stocks sort of stalling you know, if the stocks sort of stalling out with crude oil as high as it is, and

[7:26:11] underperforming the broader market. I don't think it is. might be um because we've had a nice little sell off in the S&Ps, but maybe a I don't know. I'll see I'll see what it looks like tomorrow morning. I'll see I'll

[7:26:25] >> No, there is a there's a really good point um about the fact that you've had oil swing and gy violently, but some of these uh companies, right, they haven't been able to exactly capitalize on it. It's been more the refiners that have

[7:26:39] world, for example. uh just pop back over to that chart because those crack >> had really just blown out here in recent days. And even today again, you're seeing Valero just surge right back up. >> So, it's it's not everything in the

[7:26:53] energy sector that's been able to capitalize on the tightness in supply. one of the companies that makes money extracting oil from the ground and getting it out of the Gulf, that's a completely different ballgame than a

[7:27:05] company that refineses the product. And all of a sudden, you've got less of your >> Yeah. >> That's that's different than like a a 10% decline in their drilling activity in the Middle East because of the war.

[7:27:18] >> Well, and like Hallebert and you know the whole oil field services that's been that's that's been whacked. I sold I'm short a put spread in the hal. Um the problem with Valero is the markets stink. The

[7:27:31] stink. The >> the options are so wide and for a $300 stock, $313 stock, they need to be a little bit tighter. I just I don't want to play in here. So, what's what's another one? Valero and um

[7:27:47] what's another one of those refining companies? Uh CVS is Chevron. >> So, the uh Crack ETF is one way to do it. It's not a deeply liquid thing. So, for like options, what have you. Um but Marathon Petroleum, MO, that's right.

[7:28:01] >> is MRO, excuse me, is uh one of the one of the big not MPC. They change they >> NPC >> MPC. Yeah, I remember when it was Marathon like >> it's uh

[7:28:15] >> those are marginally better than Valero, but not great. But there is some decent >> Philip 66 is another one of these names that's considered a refiner. >> What's the symbol? PHP or something. >> PSX here on your screen.

[7:28:28] >> PSX here on your screen. >> And then some smaller stuff that's kind of off. >> Uh [gasps and sighs] a book. Yeah, dino. Like who's trading dyno here? Point being though that not oil not all oil is

[7:28:41] that are coming out tomorrow are these oil services companies. They are not the refining companies that we would like to uh but we've seen do a little bit better check. TP, we only have a few minutes left to the close here. Both the NASDAQ,

[7:28:55] some gains. They're extending their gains into the close a little bit. We're gains into the close a little bit. We're back to 3.3% higher here um on NQ. And maybe that dance goes into this close where we have Apple, we have Amazon

[7:29:07] trade ideas here? Maybe you get filled, maybe you don't. But when we're looking the top of the hour, Apple at the bottom. What intrigues you more? positions in there. I'm already bullish on on Apple, bearish on Amazon, just

[7:29:23] taking shots. Gold is up today. What is it, Chris? A flight to quality away from the crappy US equity market, >> I guess. [laughter] I mean it's I don't know maybe sell a

[7:29:37] call spread put spread excuse me in GLD something like that at the close maybe something like that at the close maybe sell the 37 375 put by the 373s >> you know TP the fact that I mean you've traded for so long when rates go up gold

[7:29:52] days >> it's it's going up >> and rates have gone up it's pretty incredible be a sign of strength, right? And then the dollar gets whacked today.

[7:30:07] >> All right, folks. >> I couldn't get my gold trade in. I was >> I couldn't get my gold trade in. I was going to sell the 374 376 uh put spread. Couldn't get it done. >> We are going to be here for the next 15

[7:30:19] minutes or so TP. Uh we have corporate event here coming up after hour, so we take you through the Amazon, the Apple earnings to the best of our ability possible. Other than that, TP, we will catch you here tomorrow live in the

[7:30:32] catch you here tomorrow live in the network. We have some earnings to watch. There's really no point because Amazon earnings are expected due out sometime

[7:30:44] like they could come out any moment now. Uh, from what I've seen on my screen Bloomberg was 400 p.m. Eastern here from what I saw. But it does look like through the system. I have the Amazon chart up right now. If you're just

[7:30:58] joining us right now, this is overtime. I'm your host, Chris Veio. Uh, no Ilas going to be an abbreviated session as we wind down this particular trading session. If you were with us yesterday, you know that we had Microsoft earnings

[7:31:11] find its footing. We're looking to Amazon and Apple here today to see if we followthrough. And sure enough, it does appear that we have a little bit of movement here on Amazon right after these uh right after these hours here

[7:31:24] coming to the close. soon as I get them across my screen, which they have not off. But Microsoft apparently proved to everyone yesterday that you can make money in the AI sector. Uh their Azur cloud revenues topped 40% again and

[7:31:39] their capital expenditures were less than anticipated with no need to guide higher. So the profitability is looking a little bit better. No more proof of existing proof of work that has been there right now. I'm still waiting to

[7:31:53] see those Amazon earning results. If one of the producers spies them, you can send them my way. But instead, we can just look at them here because it's $5.75 in earnings versus $182

[7:32:06] per uh share expected. Wow, that's a big beat there. Um, revs come in at 200.61 beat there. Um, revs come in at 200.61 billion versus 196.45 billion anticipated here. Uh, EPS of 242% year-over-year. Revs up 20%. Those look

[7:32:20] good. Where is our guidance? Either way though, Amazon the first of these MAG seven names of the two today that are coming out and it's giving your NASDAQ a little bit more of a lift here in the after hours where you're at 28,312

[7:32:34] 313 right now. Same thing for the S&P 500 up to 74.85. I want to see those guidance figures though and that's the only thing that really matters in this world. Might have to wait until the call for

[7:32:49] promising. I haven't seen any guidance numbers come out yet. If you're just joining us now though, Amazon is out again. Big beat there on the EPS, beat on the revenue as well. What guided this market today? It's been a real doozy of

[7:33:03] Moore stopped speaking, the market decided to go into full panic mode, decided to go into full panic mode, dumping everything. Gold, stocks, bonds, worst day of the year for the 30-year Treasury yield. It was the worst day in

[7:33:17] several years, in fact, for the 30-year Treasury yield. But then we get to the earnings reports and yeah, Meta wasn't good and Zuckerberg's press conference was bad. But Microsoft really impressed and Microsoft being such a significant

[7:33:31] partner in this open AI buildout being such a significant partner in the overall infrastructure trade uh given the fact that it's creating the data centers it's lending capital to various firms it's a big capital source for open

[7:33:45] AAI uh Microsoft turned a profit and it expects free cash flow to remain positive for the next 2 years so where does that leave this stock then Microsoft today has a rip roaring today for all the angst and aida built into

[7:33:59] some of these tech names. That's a 15.6% rally that comes across our screen. Moving absolutely outside of the expected move that was priced in ahead scoreboard and those keeping track at home, for those listening in on the

[7:34:14] observations that has been a real standout, the companies moving outside other have typically been these AI names. So, Microsoft fits the bill, but market. It ignores Meta. Maybe that's just bad corporate governance for Meta.

[7:34:29] It's the Zuck after all. But if Microsoft can turn a profit, pretty sure everyone else will be able to figure out too. And so we get levity today. 3% day too. And so we get levity today. 3% day here in NQ erases all of yesterday's

[7:34:41] losses and then some. We find ourselves closing above yesterday's high, which adjustment in the tick that I see here on the final print today. It's not technically a bullish engulfing bar key reversal because yesterday's low was 28,

[7:34:55] excuse me, 27,201 and a half. Today's was 27,202. We almost got there, but it is still a nice little Pearson candle and it gets us back above the week one week and gets us back above a former swing low.

[7:35:09] So, we're going to have to contend with this now. Maybe the market has found a bottom. One point of interest here, scroll back a few days. We have Helen Meisler on the network to talk about the conditions for what a bottom could look

[7:35:22] like whether or not we were seeing capitulation or any sort of panic here in the market broadly speaking yet. And she surmised no. But one of the pointed out was that just in the prior day SMH the semiconductors had their

[7:35:36] largest volume day ever. And that is one of the signs that you typically see when you get into a little bit of that capitulation type of phase in the market. People panic. everyone throws things overboard,

[7:35:49] you kind of wash out. Today we learned that that wash out may have been because that that wash out may have been because of a single operation going on. Uh situational awareness, the ever famous LEO, who left Anthropic to become a

[7:36:03] hedge fund manager, has a legendary run the past few years, turns a few billion, the past few years, turns a few billion, less than five, into 24 billion he hits all the right points. It's memory, it's AI hardware, it's the

[7:36:18] bottlenecks that we've been talking about for a long time. In the month of July, he lost somewhere between 30 and 50% of his entire book value. And Citadel purchased his entire public book officially now. So the anchor around the

[7:36:35] market's neck, so seemingly was the narrative today in the zeitgeist, if you narrative today in the zeitgeist, if you will. The wash out has occurred. the overleveraged participant that's been hanging on for dear life knocked out.

[7:36:48] Game over. I wonder for the chat who here had traded crypto in recent years during the uh Bitcoin meltdown around FTX. Do you remember what it was like when FTX melted down? Because going into FTX

[7:37:02] meltdown, crypto was getting absolutely slammed. We need to go back some time to find this. Crypto is getting absolutely slammed.

[7:37:14] Did we go too far back? Yes, we did. Here we are. And here we are. This is when I remember I was driving by the local fire station when FTX went down. So, can't forget that day in November. But here we have

[7:37:28] our November 2022. Okay, so what's been happening in crypto for months and months and months? We have Bitcoin getting killed. Bitcoin's getting hindsight, as we learned from the public reporting and there's some chatter

[7:37:41] around the industry, there was a lot of talk about FTX being over its skis. And so when Perfect, thanks producers. Uh when we Perfect, thanks producers. Uh when we have our uh FTX going over or rather FTX

[7:37:53] this chatter is going around, the market likes to hunt for names like this. And so months go by, Bitcoin just edging lower, edging lower, this big drop, lower again, and can't keep going until you get to November. And why do I bring

[7:38:07] that up? Because the FTX blowup marked the low for that market. The market got its whale. It found its scalp. And once it had the overlever gambler taken out,

[7:38:19] the criminal, in fact, guy's still in prison despite his best efforts to get a pardon from President Trump. We see here that Bitcoin ultimately bottomed. don't know if that's going to be the case for all the semis, but when we take

[7:38:33] a look at what happened today, it's all of Leo's holdings in his 13F from situational awareness, which you'll see in line referred to as SALP. in line referred to as SALP. All of those holdings bounced. SanDisk

[7:38:46] All of those holdings bounced. SanDisk was up 26% today. Micron was up 18% If you go over to something like Coinbase or a Riot, more importantly, which was one of his holdings, up 21%. Notice that it wasn't all of crypto.

[7:39:00] Coinbase wasn't part of his core narrative holdings. Riot was. Hive was one of his core holdings. Bit deer, BTDR, I've never traded this before. That's one of his holdings in the space up another 25%. So, if situational

[7:39:16] awareness was touching it, this news that this participants been knocked out of the system, maybe that big volume in the semis the other day, that was the knockout punch. That was the ultimate capitulation. And that's what did us in

[7:39:29] here. So where does this leave us? Maybe there's a low. This is an enormous as we've seen recently. Frank wants me to point that out to those in the chat, on the back of all these earnings. We're up to 1.6 million contracts traded here

[7:39:45] in ES after hours. Uh we're going to have to wait for Apple thus far, but Amazon still gets its run. Amazon came out here right after the show continued You want to pull up that chart for the Amazon earnings? Thank you very much. Uh

[7:40:01] where does this leave us? We had 575 in EPS versus 182 expected. Their revenue EPS versus 182 expected. Their revenue on AWS 42.2 billion. Um they're guiding. Why does this guidance matter here? Because everyone's so concerned about

[7:40:16] losing money on the AI infrastructure trade. So their revenue comes in above expectations. Uh we're looking at overall market here that seems to be happy with the fact that their efforts to monetize their cloud for AI are now

[7:40:30] turning a greater profit. So Microsoft did it with Azur, Amazon's doing it with AWS. Maybe that's why Zuckerberg is so company that's probably going to be insulated from this the most as folks

[7:40:43] Apple. They haven't done any sort of significant build on anything. They've not doing anything for such a long period of time. Last year it was they that they're they did just the right amount which was they didn't waste their

[7:40:57] own money and they have plenty to get back to shareholders. Uh in terms of the going to get anything options through related but I will point out that the expected move is about $1.40. Uh if you didn't see what TP said on

[7:41:11] you. So, if you're using the platform, you go into the trade tab, you open up one of the various cycles. Here are in the one days. Uh you can see here on the top right hand side of the screen, it says IVX 90.7%

[7:41:23] That's the dollar move that's anticipated for today's report. So, if we take the current price, we closed at 333.87. We lob off about $1.37.

[7:41:35] Where does that bring us? The brown bar here in the middle of the screen, that is what's telling you where the expected move goes. So, uh, right now that's about 32 322 and 1/2 I should say up to about 345 from current levels. Um,

[7:41:49] whether or not we see a move outside the expected obviously will depend upon what guidance is. If Apple turns around and decides that it's missing the boat and needs to start doing its own capex moving forward to keep cost low, the

[7:42:03] market's not going to appreciate it. If it continues along the current path, wouldn't be surprised if this is a little bit of up and inside overall. Uh, but we have a market here that likes what it's seen now in the past 24 hours.

[7:42:15] here are feel a little bit more comfortable. Is this a fund blowing up? this happen before. We saw this with Japan in August of 2024 when we had the

[7:42:29] yen carry trade liquidation. The NASDAQ fell 15% from the highs in July to the August 5th low. And what happened thereafter? Once the Japanese funds that were screwing up with leverage got out of the way, the market just continued

[7:42:44] higher. Sometimes a little blow up is what you need. Not if you're a Leo, of market, you got to clear out the leverage in the system. So, we've gotten the chip leverage out from Korea. We got it here states side with situational

[7:42:57] awareness. maybe we can breathe easy. Now, I know around right now. He's on my side of the country causing trouble, but he would be all about the Fed and today we haven't crossed any significant lines yet. So,

[7:43:12] it's due. I will point out that this is feeling though like some of those horizontal lines may be starting to get cleared out. We're not fully through them all. The bigger of the two perhaps is the one here from July 17th. Closer

[7:43:25] is the one here from July 17th. Closer to 28,400 or so, but it's close. It's close in the S&P 500, right? We're getting close to 7500 again. And setting a relative new local high compared to a new relative local low. That goes back

[7:43:40] to the July 16th high. It's been lower highs and lower lows the entire time. the Russell today that even finds new footing here back above its 50-day moving average, back above its oneweek moving average. So, yeah, this has been

[7:43:55] a tough week, but if you survive the last two days, you really may not have broken down through key levels. And in fact, there's circumstantial enough feel comfortable trading on the long side a little bit more, which I am still

[7:44:08] market. Some things need to be saved like Western Digital. I need further strike, but I need a little bit more of a rally to get that thing moving where we need it to be. Um, same thing can be said for an ASML or uh, you know, even a

[7:44:22] Proctor and Gamble after a day day like today where it did drop a little bit after its earnings somewhat disappointingly for me. But as long as the core thesis remains intact right now, which volatility just went bust

[7:44:36] 1707 on the VIX, volatility just declined sharply. We had wipeout volumes in this market this week and we've had earnings in key players that are working hyperscalers are wasting their money. We now have proof of concept, proof of work

[7:44:51] that money can be made. Uh we are looking at a market here 3.6% higher after hours. Apple is due up in about 15 minutes time. Unfortunately, because of do need to cut this episode of First Call/Oovertime

[7:45:07] extended hybrid edition short here for today. But keep an eye on Apple again Tomorrow morning's earnings, those are those oil field service companies for the most part. You're looking at your Exon Mobile, your Chevron, uh there's a

[7:45:20] few names that are stapley like Cal Colgate Palm, uh excuse me, Abby, but in terms of the tech names that have been coming out, there's really nothing that something fun, there's a Roblox, there's a Reddit, but all of these are in the

[7:45:34] morning. So, unless you already got in line, uh it may be, you know, unfortunately too late to express those views. Uh for the team here today, we're see everyone tomorrow morning, 8:30 Eastern, 7:30 Central time, as we

[7:45:47] Hopefully, you get a good night's sleep. Hopefully, those Apple earnings crush if anything if you're directionally neutral. I'm not in so doesn't matter to though. Good luck trading. Catch you tomorrow. You've been watching Tasty

[7:46:01] tomorrow. You've been watching Tasty Live.

[7:46:27] >> What's up, JC Nation? Good morning. It's a fantastic Thursday and we've got Meta a fantastic Thursday and we've got Meta down bad. Microsoft up big and uh interest rates that haven't changed. Surprise, surprise. My name's

[7:46:40] >> My name's Mike. I'm here with Jamal. >> Jamal, how you doing this morning? >> Doing good. I think we should change it up and do a little soft speaking. >> it would be good. >> Uh join us on the YouTube channel if you

[7:46:53] haven't already. If you have, great job out of you. But uh throw in your trade side chat. We'll get to them throughout the morning show. What a day yesterday was. >> Yeah, like about 130 point range. Um

[7:47:09] that was even in within one hour. Just a wild day yesterday uh after the Fed meeting. It was everything that we build it up to be and then some I would say. the earnings. You just mentioned them. Big moves there. A big divergence in

[7:47:23] those two names. um as you so brilliantly coined these last two days. We had the M's yesterday, we had the A's today. We'll see if Apple and Amazon deliver as well. But it's been a crazy 24 hours. That's for sure.

[7:47:35] >> Yeah. Uh and I think for me, I like I I feel like Apple and Amazon have to follow suit with Microsoft. Feel like Meta is kind of in a an interesting unique spot. But yeah, Microsoft huge move up to the upside 27 points and we

[7:47:51] still have plenty of other earnings reports as you just saw on the screen there. Uh but yeah, they crushed earnings yet again. >> And uh I think this is potentially a turning point for the market where uh

[7:48:04] people start to realize Microsoft is still a mag seven stock and >> it can't be beaten down forever. They will prevail at some point. premarket. So, we're going to see a big green bar today. Um, but I think the

[7:48:19] thing that was different was the uh well, I don't know if I I didn't hear anything about any issues with free cash flow with them. You did hear it with burning through cash. And again, right now in earnings, you're going to get

[7:48:31] hammered if you're if you're if you're saying that in in your uh in your with Capex. I mean, you know, it's it's just high. They're spending a lot of money um on the AI buildup. Now, it's going to be fine probably at some point.

[7:48:43] this stock down 10% matter. I'm going to try and look to get long. Why not? Uh that's what we do. Traders trade. But uh the stock is getting absolutely hammered right now because they're spending a lot of money and we've seen this with so

[7:48:56] surprise. >> Yeah. Uh Ben and Production pulled that really highlight yesterday's movements. I mean it was insane. We had the market down 100 points and I was talking to Q. So, I was like, is this a

[7:49:11] signal that we were getting an interest rate hike? And we were like, I don't know. I don't I don't think they want to surprise the market. And then, uh, they And I was like, well, if they keep the rates the same, maybe you see a rally

[7:49:23] from this bottom here, which you did, but I did not see the third reversal coming down the pipeline. Uh, where we were up basically flat from being down

[7:49:35] 100 and then we resold off to new lows on the session. Yeah, it was wild. I mean um so [laughter] and I have to talk through this because um as uh the remember two days ago I think it was I don't even remember. It's

[7:49:49] all the days but I put on a super bear. I know for sure at least a day ahead of super bear for the 30th >> thinking that we would fall. I mean that was my thought. Like again it was kind of a a protective measure too. Um, but I

[7:50:03] was like, you know, in case we have some crazy move to the downside, I I want this on and I did it for basically today. Um, but I was trading around in actually put it on again and then closed

[7:50:16] it again. Um, so yeah, that that worked out pretty darn well yesterday. It was it was pretty wild, man. But uh yeah, let's uh let's do the run of show here. discuss and then we got Chris coming up a second. Let's let's show the people

[7:50:28] Morning News with Chris Veio. We got morning movers with Gus at 8:00 a.m. Central. We got overnight moves with Liz Deer King at 8:15 central. Of course, we got the market open uh at 8:30, which is going to be fascinating to see if we're

[7:50:42] SIBO check-in with Errol Coleman. We got inside the trade with Dr. Jim at 9 a.m. Central. Then, uh we take a little break, but Dr. Jim will be on solo. We come back, Mike and I, and talk charts

[7:50:55] with Tim Knight. And then we got Tasty Research with Julia at 9:30. And then we have a special guest at 9:50 a.m. Central time. So, lots lots to talk about today. Once again, >> 100%. Uh interest rates held steady. If

[7:51:12] the predictions markets uh within our platform, you can see you've got uh you know kind of a 50/50 for September. Now, hike 25 base points is at 60%, maintain at 43%. And I think that that makes a

[7:51:28] decision, I think the probability increases that we get it the next decision. But these things are are, you know, flowing up and down every single day. I mean, this this means nothing at But right now, it's telling us that this

[7:51:43] is what the projection is, but come September, it could be completely >> Well, what really matters is what's going on with um the the yields currently. And so the 10 year right now is at 4.7%. I think the 30-year is at

[7:51:56] is at 4.7%. I think the 30-year is at about 5 uh gosh 5.23% highest since 2007. >> So that's what we really pay attention really matters. Yields are high and rising.

[7:52:09] >> Yeah, it's uh it's it's a crazy environment we're in. But uh we've got hear what Chris has to say with some of these things that happened yesterday. What a day. What a day yesterday, Chris. Yesterday was an unbelievable day for

[7:52:24] many reasons uh including Microsoft's earnings. There were they were uh given everything else that's going on in AI spending world. >> Yeah, they're going to gap higher. Uh looking at 427 right now. You can see on

[7:52:41] this morning session one minute chart. Uh what a day. What a day Microsoft's bullish. Well, like Lizo said, it's about damn time. I mean, seriously,

[7:52:54] >> Yesterday on the show, we were talking how a lot of these companies, there's this proof of work test, uh, not proof of more work, right? And Meta and that fence. Microsoft showed acceleration in key revenue sectors tied

[7:53:08] to AI. They're able to monetize this a little bit better. Um, while they're little bit less money than the market anticipated. So, they're figuring out how to make this work. Meta on the other hand, they clearly just still don't have

[7:53:20] a plan and investors are not happy with how Zuck goes about telling the story of what they plan to do next. So, uh, one is proof of work, one is proof of more work needed and the market reaction couldn't be more divergent.

[7:53:33] >> Yeah, it down 60 points over 10% of the stock price and Microsoft ripping higher. >> Let's get that Fed day whipsaw uh back up again. um that graphic cuz yeah I mean it was

[7:53:46] >> huh >> that long into the yield curve >> yeah it's getting crazy yeah 30 year yeah I know right highest since 2007 >> 1% wow >> folks are saying that uh Kevin Morris is

[7:54:01] take it a step further and say Kevin Morris is a bond vigilante at this point the market you guys do the work we don't need to raise rates you guys raise the rates Yeah. >> Um and so 30-year yield, it's just this

[7:54:15] policy looser at the short end for a longer period of time, you give more breathe. And that's reflected at the long end of the curve. So what happens yesterday? Short end rates are held. 30% of the market thought that we were going

[7:54:29] reflexively, those 30% of the people, they're wrong. Short end yields go down. But the long end of the curve blows out. So we get a steeper yield curve here. I this because somewhat curiously they had a really bad day yesterday. Yeah.

[7:54:45] >> Banks usually like a uh a fatter yield curve like that, a widening steepening yield curve. And in fact, bull steepener or bare steepener, they actually kind of prefer a bear steepener. Um what's a bull steepener versus a bear steepener?

[7:54:59] gets steeper. Long rates are higher than shorten rates, but that's because yields yields are falling faster than long yields. A bare steepener is when yields are rising and long-end yields are rising faster than short end yields. So

[7:55:13] that's what happened yesterday, right? We had a 9.7 basis point move in the 210 move that we've seen to the upside this year. And we basically erased two weeks worth of compression in the spread. So banks like that environment. They are

[7:55:27] able to uh get more net interest margin as it were. Net interest margin is the difference between the loans that they uh um service respectively like your mortgages and the deposits that they pay out um for your mom and pop. So I put

[7:55:40] money into the bank. Chase for example pays me very minimal on my savings but through fractional banking and you know originate mortgages and they take in the 6% or so yada yada yada and that's difference between the short rates and

[7:55:55] the long rates is how they actually do their business here on the banking side. So XLF had a really bad session down 1.6%. The yield curve is still widening out today. Oil's in a little bit. Stocks are bouncing. XLF is a place where I

[7:56:08] think we should be looking. Um the banks in particular, JP Morgan, this may be a buy the dip opportunity. So that's the first thing on my radar here today. >> While I completely agree with you, it is confusing because again, we saw similar

[7:56:21] action in 2022, right? Like I mean, you're absolutely right. Banks borrow at long end. I mean, right? They're lending us, you know, 30-year mortgages or from when we're putting in deposits, like you said. But it's it's it's it's

[7:56:35] confusing. I mean, because again, this this move there it's kind of like oil stocks from time to time, right? Wow, look at that Goldman. Oh my gosh. Might have to get in that. Um it's [laughter] it's kind of funny, right? Like same

[7:56:47] stocks act like oil stocks and sometimes they act like just regular stocks, right? And yesterday banks were acting like regular stocks and going down. But sense. And sure enough, in a couple of

[7:57:00] were banks down?" Cuz they're going to be higher. But I I I'm going to be though. I might I might have to get a puts red. here because there's just two days left to go in the month. And I have a feeling

[7:57:16] that this might be the first red NASDAQ in 11 years. I know we were 11 for 11 coming into this July, >> but um we're, you know, going into the close yesterday, we were down over 10% for the month of July. Uh there's only

[7:57:31] five years in which you've had uh a NASDAQ with a double digit decline in a single month. 2000, [snorts] 2001, 2002, 2008, and 2022. Five famously good years

[7:57:47] for bulls in the second half of the year. Oh, no, wait. The producers are years for bulls in the second half of the year. >> Uh, so let's see how we close this month. That's a really bad omen that may

[7:57:59] be in our pocket. Today's bounce obviously 1.5% higher is good. Maybe we're going to save ourselves today. Apple, Amazon, these are not the scary discipline. The market's been rewarding them handover fist for not spending too

[7:58:12] much money on the wrong things. Heck, even last week they announced like an an Amazon Alexa Echo device for the home based on Siri. Siri absolutely sucks. stock wasn't punished. I could think of a cycle maybe last year or even earlier

[7:58:25] this year. Apple announces a crummy AI offering and the market goes, "Ah, they're daylight dollar short. They're not doing enough." And so, totally had a little bit better performance. It's not certainly not operating like a

[7:58:38] meta. So, um I think we could be a little bit more optimistic for today's Bowl on Amazon for what it's worth. So, I'm right there thinking that we can get >> Yeah, >> one of us. One of us. He's one of us.

[7:58:53] >> Amazon's up uh seven points pre-market. So, that's a an interesting signal pre-market. So, >> I got that my trade of the day yesterday was a diag put diagonal in here for that very reason, Chris. Um, and also like

[7:59:08] you mentioned the month. That's all the reason why the other reason why I got Super Bowls and SPX for August 3rd. I'm not doing anything bullish in July. Why? Cuz July is done. Like it's a wrap. July's a wrap. Time to get out of

[7:59:22] look, some of this stuff hasn't worked. I'm very fortunate. This is one of the earnings. Uh I was short of put spread in Meta that it's probably at max loss, but there's still 22 days to go. If this was s sitting at one, I could be waking

[7:59:36] up with assignment this morning >> how deep deep underwater it is. So, uh doing some sweeping here off the books in that regard. average stock versus S&P? I mean, we've been talking about this for a minute. Um

[7:59:53] and uh it it's it's sort of was playing out yesterday. Yesterday obviously was a going forward. We've been talking about the equal weight. However you want to weight. We've talked about the rotation we've seen into um consumer staples into

[8:00:07] oddly enough software. Software is is making a little move today with this for a while. I'm curious to know if this is going to hold or was this just a thing because we've seen the big rotation happen earlier this week. And

[8:00:21] watching for right away on the open again. on here right now. And what I mean by that is you could take the angle of how

[8:00:34] middle of the year, which is to say that the winners usually get sold down in July as there's rotation and then the market resumes its rally sometime September, October. Uh you could take the view that with a 10% decline perhaps

[8:00:46] more like one of those other five years. Or maybe it's like the do-com bubble burst or it's a 2022 23 episode because of the Fed being late and refusing to address inflation again. um or is it 21

[8:00:59] inflation and let the market run a little bit longer? shared in the past 24 hours from folks at various hedge funds, from various my inbox over the course of the day. >> And that is actually to me the most

[8:01:13] is there when is there a lot of opportunity in the market? Um when either everyone agrees or no one agrees. Right? When you have like 75% of people on one side, eh, boring. You get everyone on one side then you can get a

[8:01:27] in semiconductors. We get a lot of price discovery and choppiness in an opinions because you can misinterpret something very easily along the way something very easily along the way here. Um so is this more to come? I mean

[8:01:41] I need to see more evidence right now to get bowled up again on stocks. Uh picking and choosing some of the names in more defensive sectors has worked and have to operate. uh Proctor Gamble, Kimberly Clark, the fun stuff,

[8:01:54] Coca-Cola, Johnson and Johnson, you know, the fan favorites. Uh who cares is this is a very difficult environment still. Um software having a nice bounce. Microsoft really perhaps showing that you can monetize AI. [clears throat]

[8:02:08] Uh now though, for what it's worth, is off 4% pre-market. So, so much for that software bounce continuing. Yes, as Chris is talking, let's put that uh 20 stocks hit new highs graphic up cuz I mean again it tells the story. Look

[8:02:23] who's at the top. Look at the names. It ain't you know it ain't Marll. It ain't Qualcomm. It ain't Sandisk. It ain't Micron. These are the names. >> Yeah. mostly which means if you're tra if you're trading the market cap

[8:02:38] weighted indexes then if you're seeing none of the mag sevens up here >> you know something to consider more chop >> insurance real estate um the Ross stores is uh what the hell is that I mean that's um retail yeah retail

[8:02:52] >> retail >> um yeah I mean it's Garmin I I didn't even know that stock still traded I mean a lot of insurance stocks um you brought brought that up on the show a couple weeks back. I still ain't trading

[8:03:05] But [laughter] I'm just saying you guys did bring it up. >> PSG, like, wow. >> I specifically remember talking with Ratigan and Ilia um what was it last January after the the Los Angeles

[8:03:19] >> and it's like how come the insurance companies aren't down more? It's like >> Yeah. >> Uh conceptually think about this, right? If what's going on with these companies in California and Florida, these are

[8:03:34] companies are ruthless ma mathematicians. They don't take their when they say like, "We are not going to ensure your homes in these areas any longer because of the risk to our balance sheet." They're not doing that

[8:03:48] because they're just being jerks. They don't like the governor of each state because they can't make money on you, right? There's just too much risk in ensuring a new home in Florida or California. The other side of this is if

[8:04:01] all these homes burn down to such a degree because of the risk now of some of these fires and flooding, then the government has to step in and provide community support. The scale of which is just it's too great. So, uh, KIE has

[8:04:15] just been in down markets, it's holding steady, and up markets it's grinding up. Um, it's an insurance ETF that I certainly don't own enough in my that given how it's performed. But that is always the case when things go up and

[8:04:28] I always own far too much of the stuff when it's going down. [laughter] >> right. >> That's where we're at. I mean, yeah, it's been uh it's been crazy with the insurance companies and and really the

[8:04:41] insurance companies and and really the mag 7 product here, MAGS. You can see just how uh off the highs we are with these products. And that that speaks to the equal weighted RSP hitting new highs and really diverging from that. But now

[8:04:55] you're going to have Meta pulling down against Microsoft's gains today uh in against Microsoft's gains today uh in the MAG7s, too. So, it's uh it's still a tug and pull, but I think Apple and Amazon after the close today will give

[8:05:10] us a lot more light because that those two paired with Microsoft and Meta's picture after after today's afternoon. So, what does Meta say in the next three jump at some point? >> Well, stop going to court, first of

[8:05:26] [laughter] all, and uh >> stop firing people. Sephence was a huge item for them. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. I think it's uh I don't know. I I've I don't know what's coming.

[8:05:39] >> At some point, they're going to say something and then the stock is going to >> Of course. And >> we've seen this so many times in a lot What's Meta down in three months? >> It was down 10% at one point. Yeah.

[8:05:52] >> So, it caught 10% and I think it's like a 3% waiting in the uh NASDAQ. So, like would the NASDAQ be right now? Maybe closer to 1.9% higher >> Mhm. >> I mean, so that that also goes to show

[8:06:07] the fact that Meta being one of the 10 largest components of the NASDAQ um down 10% and the index is still up 1.6% pre-market or so.

[8:06:22] candles that we saw earlier this week in some of these big tech uh ETFs, ETPs, the SK Highix Irish 3x levered ETP being down 96% yesterday. Maybe those are all signs of wash out. Um, too certainly >> I mean, yeah,

[8:06:38] >> It wouldn't hurt, but like that kind of capitulation and the fact that you're getting a much stronger tape today in the face of a 10% decline in one of the [sighs] People are really bared up right now.

[8:06:50] And maybe we got a sentiment check, too. You guys saw that Leopold, the guy who runs that big AI uh SULP SAP hedge fund, he apparently got margin called yesterday. >> Really? which I think his fund from

[8:07:04] >> Really? which I think his fund from inception is still up like 2,200%. Satrini post about this. If if you were invested on day one with like $100 million, uh, and the fund gave back 96% of its

[8:07:18] returns up until yesterday, you'd still have turned a $230 million profit on an investment that's been going on for just like less than two years. So that's a pretty good rate of return still. And so a lot of these folks who are, you know,

[8:07:30] getting blown out because of the AI story, they've still made a handsome going to be able and willing to step in and provide more capital if that's required to keep the party going. So there's just some sentiment signs. Big

[8:07:42] names getting wiped out, big volumes in the market. >> Uh [clears throat] maybe that was Leopold on Monday, the big SMH volume. >> We'll never know. Well, I mean, our resident bearer has been talking about

[8:07:54] uh taking off positions over the last like maybe week, right? Like at least this week. Um rolling them out, being annoyed that he did it, but he's, you know, being prudent. And I think to your point about uh you know, possible

[8:08:07] I don't know how many sellers are left, big sellers are left, honestly, in this situation. I think they're going to, you know, kind of take some stuff off and seems like all the news is known. like, hey, if you come out and you say

[8:08:20] spending too much money, your your stock is going to get hammered. It is what it is. And uh but we we've we've been hearing about, you know, the stuff that's going on in South Korea and what's going on with that market. And it

[8:08:33] like these things are happening and but they're they're you know, we heard market over there. And so there's things are starting to calm down. I think we'll it's coming to an end. Can we get that uh 2026 year-to- date total returns up,

[8:08:47] that graphic? Um, so again, this is, you know, this is also telling seeing just what's been the popular stuff and what's been moving and what's been down and most of it has been the the MAG7s in the tech more recently for sure.

[8:09:01] having a pretty good uh day here today. Uh, EWI is up nearly 4% in the NASDAQ chart, by the way, if you were to pull up triple Q's versus EWI in like a minute or a five minute time frame. U,

[8:09:14] >> [clears throat] >> uh the margin calls that have been triggered in South Korea. Three, excuse triggered in South Korea. Three, excuse me, um 1.2 million leverage retail

[8:09:26] triggered margin calls as of July 13th with an estimated 320K to 360k accounts fully liquidated. So that's 3.4% of the entire adult population in South Korea

[8:09:38] believe the number of fully liquidated accounts has moved above 500,000 by the end of the month. So this is a lot of leverage that's being cleared out of the system, right? And I think that's one of the points worth noting about this

[8:09:52] decline here. A lot of the fundamental underlying business model has not changed. Yes, there's Chinese competition like ASML, for example. that they're going to do a DUV lithography. DUV is important, but it's

[8:10:04] not the EUV lithography that you need for the high bandwidth memory chips. um earlier this week. All of the American analysts, all the European analysts are But all the folks who work on the ground are saying, "Well, yeah, guys, their big

[8:10:19] production begins in the third quarter. So, what are you so worried about?" I don't know. We've seen a lot of leverage go through the system before. I recall bit of a deja vu from two years ago. The yen carry trade blows up. NASDAQ is down

[8:10:34] 15% from the mid July high to the first week of August low. And then the market just grinds higher again and bounces back. Maybe we clear out the leverage. But throw away seasonality. Focus on Apple.

[8:10:47] >> July's done. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Let's just hope we don't finish down by more than 10% in the NASDAQ. >> I mean, ideally, we finish exactly at 2788

[8:10:59] for NASDAQ specifically. And then we finish at uh 7,400 in SPX. and Ramal and capital. >> We have we honestly though we have these butterflies uh that are wrapped around

[8:11:14] butterflies uh that are wrapped around the uh 20 278 for NDX. >> 28K. >> Yes. Yes. Sorry. 278 on the downside. 28K in the middle. This is like a 19k

[8:11:28] max profit with one day to go and we're right there. And then S&P right there. And then S&P is uh 7,400 for that butterfly. to kind of combat what we're seeing

[8:11:40] literally right where we need them with one day to go. So I don't know. I got to when we open because we're going to open like right in the middle of that that spread. >> Mhm. We'll take it. Yeah. It's uh what a

[8:11:56] crazy day. I don't I don't I don't see if we top going to happen, right? Like [laughter] that's not where we're going to get >> I think intraday I would be surprised if we have the same intraday whip, but we

[8:12:09] >> I think we definitely have >> which is Let's watch the open here. where we bounced because oil was down, NASDAQ was up like 1.4% and then 9:30, you could look at the candles. 9:30 hits and boom, market just gives it all up.

[8:12:26] So, let's see what happens in 35 minutes time. If we can hold on to this bounce trading today, probably going to be a good omen. Um, I know we haven't really talked about oil much here. Oil is in a little bit uh escalate to deescalate

[8:12:40] news perhaps. Saudi Arabia is now public with the fact that they are reciprocating attacks on Iran, which is something up until now uh they have not acknowledged formally or publicly. So, the war widens, more Gulf countries are

[8:12:54] getting pulled in. Does Iran want that? Uh, you know, if they keep needling now, you're going to have more than just the US Air Force giving you guff. So, oil off today, we'll keep an eye on it. No tankers are moving through the straits

[8:13:06] still, which it's kind of feels like a I keep using the analogy beach ball underwater. You can keep pushing oil down, but if the oil the physical oil does not move, the oil market itself, the paper market is going to react. So,

[8:13:20] It's a fun time to trade oil. I'm directionally neutral here. >> lots of in a range. >> Yep. We've got uh an iron condor that's that range there. Uh but implied volatility is still not allowing us to

[8:13:35] get the implied volatility increase is not allowing us to get that 50% prop. We're pretty close though. And then MCL 80 strike straddle out in the V contract. That's coming in nicely uh with the whippiness, but kind of

[8:13:49] similar. just been rolling up and uh offsetting some of that delta exposure as we get closer to the back end of the curve in these later dated cycles. But yeah, what a crazy day, Chris. Appreciate your time. Uh we will see you

[8:14:03] market can hold it. >> We'll be back later for a confirm and questions, research at tastyclilive.com so Liz and I can answer them. >> Beautiful. Cool. Beautiful. Uh yeah, E- Mini is up 47, NASDAQ up 460, Bitcoin is

[8:14:20] we're going to take a quick little break of it. Join us on the YouTube channel if you haven't already. Throw in those the close today. We'll see you on the other side of this break. You're

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[8:17:03] >> What's up, Tasty Nation? We are back and the markets are catching a bid. E- Minis up 51, NASDAQ up 486. Seems like a green day, unless your name is Meta. That is down 10% pre-market. Uh, Microsoft continuing to rip higher,

[8:17:17] but we got Gus in the house for some stocks to take a look at today. How you >> Doing good. Always good. Yeah, we got a big morning. We the first the first two Obviously very different results happening there. I'm long both of them.

[8:17:30] So I got mixed feelings, you know. It's it's it's a mixed bag, but uh yeah, >> Sweet. >> Um yeah, I mean first first thing for today, I I would be remissed if we did not just at least touch on meta and

[8:17:42] times already, so we'll keep things brief, but uh Microsoft moving up, Meta moving down. Is the TLDDR in play here? Azure and Copilot growth good for Microsoft. Meta spending too much money. As I said yesterday, it's not cool to

[8:17:57] spend money on AI anymore. That's that's so March of you. Okay, this it's we're in July now and we don't spend money on AI and hurt our free cash flow. Uh so spending and it seems like that's only

[8:18:10] earlier this week sign a deal with Black Rockck to do a 14 billion data center in El Paso, Texas. So Meta kind of just saying screw it. We're just going to now, hope that this turns into profits in the future. at some I hope that this

[8:18:24] turns into profits at some point in the hard to quantify future through means >> Yeah, it sounds good. >> Yeah, [laughter] >> sounds good to me. >> Well, that's it, right? Like so I was

[8:18:38] what point that changes this whole thing? And honestly, I mean, they're Like they're not going to change. All these companies are probably going to keep spending. Does does uh Micro Strategy stop buying Bitcoin? Well,

[8:18:51] recently, didn't they? But but I mean that's the thing like are they but and they're going to keep doing that. These other companies are just going to like they're going to change. >> Yeah. And the and the paths to profit

[8:19:04] You know, if if Apple said, "Oh, we're going to we're going to spend a billion dollars to uh develop the the newest greatest smartphone and we're going to the market would react positively to that because there's a clear path to

[8:19:16] revenue there. But this AI stuff is all more esoteric. It's all harder to over on your balance sheet. And yeah, the market starting to respond >> 100%. >> Uh, second story we have for today is

[8:19:28] about Rolls-Royce. Uh, let me tell you, I I don't know if I'm if I've just been company that they once were at all. aerospace company these days, uh, but they had a great earnings report. You

[8:19:41] can see the numbers on screen here. And raised guidance on uh, increased demand for their nuclear power generators. Another thing I wasn't super aware that Rolls-Royce was doing. Uh here's a good picture of one here. Um but yeah, they

[8:19:54] equation here. Data centers want their nuclear power generators because data centers have quotas of what they can pull from electric grids. So they want any any power that is not coming from the grid is welcome by data centers. On

[8:20:07] the other side, they're getting a lot of demand from increased defense spending around the world. militaries and and similar governing bodies want their applications. So, they're getting a lot of inflows from uh the UK and other

[8:20:20] European countries looking to buy these for defense purposes. So, well positioned uh spending obviously increasing worldwide in both of those Rolls-Royce to be. And as a result, yeah, we see the the the beat and raise

[8:20:33] situation come through here. I thought Rolls-Royce just made cool cars. I don't know. I don't know how how this all happened under my nose here. It's not a Ferrari reported earnings today as well. Is Ferrari making spaceships now? Am I

[8:20:46] these luxury car brands are are rebranding into these other things? Uh just jumped off the page at me. I said Rolls-Royce hyperscaler demand for nuclear power. That's not what you think about Rolls-Royce as they've they've

[8:21:00] made a good shift. And I'll tell you what, these power distributors, these are are in one of the best places as this AI data center demand increases reactor, you get the millions and millions of dollars for it and it

[8:21:15] doesn't matter if the bubble ever pops. You you have no overhead. >> Yeah, some overhead. >> What a story. What a story. And yeah, I seeing the the green on the screen. They're seeing the spending and they're

[8:21:27] trying to get involved. Uh it reminds me of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters when and the market was like >> no you're not like you're [laughter] going you're going to zero. But uh yeah a lot of these companies will the more

[8:21:42] spending the more the spending increases the more the companies are just like we of this this spending because it's just astronomical. nuclear power makes more sense to me than allirds shifting into GPU as a

[8:21:56] service. I will say there's levels to this for sure. There there's just no way [laughter] >> Yeah. I I think it's I I think it's uh the weird part. I do remember going down I've definitely gone down like a rabbit

[8:22:09] I've definitely gone down like a rabbit hole on information one time um with uh with uh Wikipedia and I remember seeing like in the 60s I think they were like a attached to Rolls-Royce and I was like the same way. I was like, "Oh, I thought

[8:22:22] weird. >> Yeah, I'm sure this is me missing the the news that Rolls-Royce is doing nuclear power to anybody here. of people know that that that was part of their business. It's just funny that

[8:22:35] >> It's a core part of their business. Nowhere in any of the articles about Rolls-Royce today will you see anyone say the word vehicle. There is there is nothing about the vehicles. >> Yeah. Here we go. Rolls-Royce power

[8:22:47] plant. This is one of their one of their mock-ups. I did see a number of these >> That'll attract some aliens if anything's going slug. Yeah, no kidding. >> Be like, "Oh, this must be the human headquarters."

[8:23:01] >> I would go there. >> Yeah. I'd check it out. >> New Zealand. >> Would you You feel a little weird being >> I'm not getting I mean >> I mean is is this hurricane proof

[8:23:14] location we got. [laughter] >> Typhoon. >> They didn't think it all through. >> We got a Rolls-Royce submarine. Yeah. >> They do everything. That looks badass. >> Yeah. I don't know. Lamborghini used to

[8:23:27] make tractors. I guess there's all these luxury car brands. They they do their different things. So, interesting spot for Rolls-Royce. If you're if you're Rolls-Royce investor, congratulations to you. Uh third topic for today, we are

[8:23:40] which I alluded to yesterday. There was concerns that they would have a a poor earnings report following this uh cycllosporasis outbreak from Taco Bell lettuce. Uh however, that did not come to fruition. the the guy went up there

[8:23:54] and basically just mogged everybody. He said, "Yeah, taco Taco Bell sales got hurt recently, but look, same store sales are up 7% quarter over quarter. all of our revenue segments, and the market responded positively. Young

[8:24:07] brands set to set to open up today. Uh perhaps the the big rundown on account just priced that in a little bit too impact in the bottom line. And I'll tell you why I think it didn't have much

[8:24:20] when I was searching for B-roll for today, I made me really want Taco Bell. So, I just [laughter] I just don't care. I'm not scared. I guess the average actually all just marketing. No such thing as bad publicity. Uh so, yeah,

[8:24:34] good good report for Yum Brands. Uh same store sales up across most of their of Habit Burger as >> I was like, what is that? What is this? >> It's it's 1% of their of their current revenue. I don't know when they got it,

[8:24:47] we'll start to see Habit Burgers popping up uh here and there. >> Was it in California or something? It seems like a California thing. Yep. >> There you go. >> Frankie, you ever been to Habitburg?

[8:25:00] >> Let us know, man. I know, right? Well, you going to send me some in a second. five Habit Burgers. [laughter] He >> probably does. I mean, these these you have some kind of crazy event. The market just rips it lower and then

[8:25:16] gonna be fine." This just happened with CME and SIBO. CME and SIBO just tanked and now they're up, you know, 40 points from the low. SIBO, same exact chart, tanked from 360 down to 200. Now they're ripping higher. So, it's just like these

[8:25:31] is just going to be a blip on the radar, it creates a really interesting >> And that's why I'm going after Meta today. There you go. Why not? I'm go a might this might be my first October

[8:25:44] >> I mean, this is going to open down here at the October position. open here. >> I'm long off the last time we were at the annual lows. Don't do [laughter] it. Obate. It goes back to them.

[8:25:59] think it had to be an overreaction that we saw in Yum as well. It's like if Taco Bell is one of four restaurant chains tangibly expect this to hit Taco Bell

[8:26:12] sales? Like what what were people thinking in their minds? 10% 20%. Like does do Taco Bell sales take a 20% hit because a few people got diarrhea? I don't think they do. Um so when you're talking about a you know 10 15% hit

[8:26:24] maybe, which we actually found out it's up 7% quarter over quarter to just one be that much when it actually all shakes out. certainly doesn't doesn't justify >> So, is that officially it? Was it officially just Taco Bell and that's it?

[8:26:37] reporting at this time. I don't believe the actual like FDA has called anyone language that indicates that it was it was Taco Bell um Taco Bell lettuce is. >> I would love to know the amount of

[8:26:52] after they knew the news and they took the risk and they're like, I don't care. Well, that's the thing is you have to you could still go to Taco Bell. You'd You'd have to you'd have to love Taco Bell lettuce specifically so much that

[8:27:07] you're like, I'm doing this. We we I need the beefy five layer right now. >> With that little crunch, with that extra crunch, that could turn into real real >> don't put Fritos in there. You can get crunch other ways, people.

[8:27:20] >> Lettuce is a scam. It's Lettuce is a scam being by big rabbit. came out with that one thing. It was like the with the soft shell on the then the hard shell on the inside like that. I don't even remember what they

[8:27:33] >> Yeah, those are those are still around. They're uh Yeah. I don't know. Yeah, >> Yeah. >> Oh god, [laughter] >> Don't do it.

[8:27:46] now. I've actually had a lot of lettuce since that that whole thing. But now when I look at lettuce, I'm like, is this the bad stuff or just

[8:27:58] I think that's a good sign. >> I think so. Yeah. >> Uh, anything else, Gus? >> No, I got I got nothing else on the reports going off, obviously. Uh, Starbucks up. Uh, Carvana falling hard.

[8:28:12] >> uh Forinet flying >> besides Ben and Microsoft. I really they? [laughter] >> Chipotle. Starbucks. Qualcomm. Uh, >> Qualcomm. Yeah, Qualcomm's down. I did see that. Um, oh, BMY, Sigma, boring,

[8:28:26] Mastercard. >> Oh, yeah. And, and Baxter International, blindly bought it after seeing suspicious Congress purchasing smashed Set to open up 14% today. Uh, reported EPS 56 cents, topping the 37 cent

[8:28:43] estimate. So, way way over. >> Mastercard's actually up big. They're up they're >> their opening print is above this chart favorite thing here. Drag us down a little bit. [laughter]

[8:28:55] >> They did do both of them used to do a lot of commercials in like the 90s and commercial anymore. I guess they don't have to. Honestly, the point's gotten across. Everybody uses them. But >> yeah, last last thought on Chipotle. Uh

[8:29:07] actually related to Costco. They have a bag of pre-made chicken that you can buy. It's like $10 and it tastes exactly like the Chipotle chicken. >> I'm not even kidding you. I I got one bag. I was like, "Why did I get six bags

[8:29:21] >> it's incredible. You just heat it up. It's already cooked. Absolutely nuts. >> Yeah. So, go out there and buy your Chipotle chicken at Costco. >> Costco chicken. >> Yeah.

[8:29:34] >> Right. >> Goss. Appreciate you. >> Of course. Thanks for having me. >> Absolutely. Uh E- Minis up 55, NASDAQ up crazy day ahead, but I think it'll probably be a little less crazy than

[8:29:49] yesterday. Uh, at least until the close. We got Amazon and Apple after the close second break. We'll see you on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[8:31:25] now, you can head over to tastyrade.com/brit. Check out the new promo from Tasty Trade. new accounts get up to 3K on new deposits uh with a 3% match. Check it out. But uh Jamal, it's been a crazy

[8:31:40] morning so far. Markets are up. Seems like everything's going to be fine except for Meta being down. Uh but we got Apple and Amazon after the close today. We got Liz Deerk on the line. And Liz, I haven't placed any S&P trades. I

[8:31:53] don't think we've placed any SPX trades. Have you? I we have to talk about something else first. I'm getting long Costco, Mike, on your tip about chicken because if you know it, I've been buying this for

[8:32:06] >> Fantastic. >> I know exactly what you're talking about. Chipotle chicken. It's packaged. The kids, they eat it like it's going out of style. You just warm it up. The same thing. Way cheaper. So, Costco is

[8:32:19] getting along Costco in honor of your chicken. Now, I know that it's sweeping the nation cuz when I go there, there's lots [laughter] of there's lots of them Costco at these levels >> 100%. I feel like it's uh it's a done

[8:32:34] where they're going to chop around for sure, but this there's no way that this sure, but this there's no way that this is, you know, the high, 1100, so that's >> our our producers are amazing. This is exactly

[8:32:48] Wait, 100 calories? >> Well, it's per serving. >> I Yeah, I guess. Wow. >> What does it say? I mean, the bag is big. 3 o a handful. Thanks, man. >> So, the bag is big, though. It's a big

[8:33:01] justice. It's It's a lot. >> Yeah. Flame seared. >> Char grilled. How are you flame seared and char grilled at the same time? Just >> Chicken. They can do both. >> It looks good. I'm going to definitely

[8:33:15] run. >> Oh, you got to go. You got to get it. And there's an If you like Indian food, there's this Indian food. Uh I need to to figure it out. But it's they have butter chicken and they have chicken

[8:33:29] >> for real. >> It's legit. >> Yeah, it is. You know what I'm talking about. I I exclusively shop at Costco. So, yes. >> Where do they get these wonderful toys?

[8:33:41] the chat that I glanced at. I don't always look at it, but a Jeep Tasty Crew "Does the crew still remember me?" We love a Jeep. So, yeah, [laughter] we can >> we remember all the OGs. >> Yeah, for sure. remember all the% for

[8:33:56] >> All the wild day yesterday, right? >> Oh, [clears throat] yesterday was bonkers, but it was fun. I know it sounds crazy and I sound like a lunatic, but it was fun to watch. We got a we got the implied volatility back that we were

[8:34:09] the implied volatility back that we were looking for. Um the market was basically reacted, you know, like like a teenager in the fact that we were up at some point. We the market rallied all the way back to green and then fell out of bed.

[8:34:23] >> Yeah. I mean, yeah. Can we get that Fed day whipssaw uh graphic up again? Yeah, wild. >> So, we watched as the as the Fed came out, they loved it. The market loved it what the Fed did and it went all the way

[8:34:36] up to green and then as soon as we hit that high, it just went straight down. I mean, it's not it's a I loved what you were saying today, Jamal. It's were saying today, Jamal. It's confusing. It's kind of confusing, but

[8:34:48] something's going to happen, I never think I can guess what the market's going to do in any situation. So, and the market didn't know what it was going to do, clearly. >> Yeah. [snorts] I mean, um that's why we

[8:35:01] just trade it. That's why I um you know, one of the [laughter] about two years ago, about a year and a half ago, almost two, was reading a whole lot of news. like

[8:35:14] [laughter and clears throat] I um I just watch the price action. I don't read as watch the price action. I don't read as much news and figure I know what like in and what the market reaction is going to be. I just trade what we see day in and

[8:35:29] going to have a big down day yesterday. That's the reason why I put on a super bear for a day out. I was just like just in case we're down and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Cool. I'm risking, you know, in this case collected a dollar, I think it

[8:35:42] was at the time, maybe 50 cents on that one. Um, and I was willing to risk 900 which I knew I would make double that at least. Um, and uh, you know, we just had that crazy down day. You figured it was coming. We like, we've been we've been

[8:35:56] overleveraging what's going on South Korea. Obviously, the chips names are and we've been seeing that weakness, and you just knew that at some point there capitulation. Um, and there kind of has

[8:36:08] we get from here. >> Yeah. Yeah, we will. I I'm on the edge with you guys. I want to see where that NASDAQ butterfly is going to open today. right? It's tomorrow. >> It is for tomorrow. Yeah.

[8:36:23] >> I don't know. >> Sh. It'll hear you. Won't say anything. [laughter] But I mean, it's going to it is going to open right right in the middle of this range. It'll be it'll be within the butterfly. It's this is going

[8:36:36] to like It's funny cuz I'm just seeing this bad mark here uh from the close, this bad mark here uh from the close, but it's going to be probably a $2,000 winner on the open. I would imagine it's yesterday was like 1,600, so we have a

[8:36:49] >> What? >> Norwegian cruise lines are down. >> I'm not a Norwegian. I'm a royal. >> I know, but cruise lines in general, cruise lines. This is a crisis. What are we going to do?

[8:37:02] >> I'm a Disney and a royal. Don't worry about Oh my god. Did they say something bad? Did they have >> Nice. >> Alaskan cruise.

[8:37:15] >> My son is taking a cruise. [laughter] >> Yeah, exactly. Yes. Of >> He's finally branching out. I'm happy for him. different earnings that came out um in the last 24 hours. Obviously, we've been

[8:37:28] mostly focused on on Microsoft and Meta, but um you mentioned Ma Mastercard a little earlier. That's up. Um, but um, yeah, this is one of those few days where I'm I'm I I might be active on the open. Probably active in in meta, get a

[8:37:40] think about where I want to go, but I do think it's going to take some time for this story to settle down >> for Meta. Yeah. No, I agree. I'm going to get long meta, but I I I don't

[8:37:53] out in time with it with there. So, can I ask you guys a question? There's um I and I don't I think every trader who gets their assumptions, however you get them, I'm 100% on, you know, just find out your assumption, which direction

[8:38:06] good a good trade on top of it. Do you guys ever um do after earnings? So, there was one of the one of the traders in the market watch books, he had no of the greatest traders I'd seen, and I kind of like doing this. He had no

[8:38:20] positions, but he would wait until after earnings. So if you see a big move, you know, think um Microsoft or ARM. And he would the morning after it opens, follow the move up for one day and then close it. And he made a a great living out of

[8:38:33] doing this because saying the momentum of a big up move might follow through guys ever look like that? That the momentum is going to go in one direction >> Do you look I used to do that a lot. Yeah. I caught

[8:38:47] a nice Amazon move one time when I was trading in the personal. Made like 20k off of that. Well, especially especially upside momentum I think is a psychological difference between I mean downside too. Uh but I feel like the

[8:38:59] upside especially in Microsoft like everyone has been beating down Microsoft and now you see Microsoft just gap higher after uh the earnings announcement. I I would be shocked if they gave up these gains. I I think

[8:39:12] especially with met with uh Meta's weakness, you could see this continue that sort of strategy. >> I think it depends on the earning cycle will see the pattern, especially early in the cycle, right? If you see names

[8:39:26] come out with earnings and they beat and they just raise and they keep moving up like, okay, game on. I'm going to try and see how much this works. And this cycle so far outside of Microsoft, the trend has been report and down for the

[8:39:41] >> like for tech, sorry, not everything. [clears throat] >> You're seeing uh Amazon up 10 points premarket, too. So, this is kind of a a sympathy move most likely with uh Microsoft, but

[8:39:53] >> It's a good point and you two are are good therapists for me because you make going to agree with Mike. I think with the up it's an upside move and then with Jamal to the downside I wanted to catch the falling knife in Meta. It's it is

[8:40:07] almost it's almost a mental game, right? So, I wanted to be with the people that falling knife in something that's all the way down. So it that that is a >> Yeah. Why is this up $10, Amazon? Is it just because of the good cloud news out

[8:40:21] >> Probably. >> I mean, they're not going to say Amazon, right? >> No, they can't. They make too much >> I just bought some yesterday. >> Yeah. [laughter]

[8:40:34] Once you get on Amazon, can't get off. >> But this is Go ahead. because I don't get I have the chat up. A lot of times I don't. Somebody is short puts that I'm acquiring in SpaceX and SpaceX I mean honestly so you can't

[8:40:48] win everything right so SpaceX SpaceX has been going down and I've been moving them out and down so that's what you can do when you have such a high implied volatility so I started with weekly put saying that I wanted to acquire them and

[8:41:00] different laddered positions so um and I can actually say which ones I have that but my move is out and down so if I have an in the money say use just use the 120s so just go to the 120s cuz it's pretty bad, right? So, you'd buy that

[8:41:14] back and then because it's so far down, I'll go pretty far out. I'll look at the 22 days, see how much farther out and down I can go and and then I'll address. So, what what was that? Uh $15. Yeah. So, I could take it from the 120 to the

[8:41:26] getting enough extrinsic value. If I don't have extrinsic value in that, I might even push it farther out in time. So, I just wanted to address that cuz with my SpaceX puts. It's not they're not ideal, but I'm out and down. That's

[8:41:41] that's what I've been doing with them. >> Yeah, that is uh that is the maneuver. And uh I think with these sorts of trades when you take on intrinsic value, it's harder to move it out of the money. But if you if you're moving it out and

[8:41:53] money, and sometimes you can't help it because there's a gap. But if you're moving extrinsic value for a different source of exttrinsic value in a further it way further down. >> Uh so if you're if you're making this

[8:42:07] you could do the same thing to the upside. So, if you eventually take these shares, you can sell a call in the near-term cycle, and if you get hit on move it out and up. >> So, uh there's plenty of of malleability

[8:42:21] the beauty of it really is like being able to manipulate your intrinsic value intrinsic value risk with a move like this. >> And so, what's great about is it has given there is still a lot of implied

[8:42:34] and down. And to Mike's point, I basically have synthetic covered calls, monies, I do it is essentially synthetically as if I own the stock and it >> 100%.

[8:42:47] >> Yeah, absolutely. And yeah, you could even like if you had the 128 day, you can move it down to the 115 and the 50-day and still pick up $300. So right, >> uh high IV gives you a lot more flexibility than a low IV product for

[8:43:01] >> But SpaceX is up three bucks premarket >> and they have earnings August 4th. That's going to be interesting. Yeah, >> I'm going to need a little bit more on SpaceX, but once again, I've uh I trade small and I trade often. I I've been

[8:43:14] you know, limit or what's it called? Like what was it on the floor? Jamal personal position limit, >> when I get to my personal position I've got and I keep rolling until I'm right.

[8:43:29] >> I like it. Um, so yeah, speaking of Meta and like SpaceX, for me, I had this just long-term Super Bowl. Sold the 125 put to buy the 300 strike call. Uh, and I'm glad I sold the put to buy the call cuz this call would be down two grand right

[8:43:43] now. Uh, I'm taking some heat on the put, don't get me wrong, but uh, anywhere above 125, this is a net a net winner. Uh, but Meta, I think that's probably where I'll go is like we can go to October or September into this

[8:43:57] high price product, you could still do like a Super Bowl. If you go to October, uh, for example, you could sell like a 500, 490 put spread, take a take $200 in credit and then utilize that to create some kind of asymmetry to the upside.

[8:44:13] some kind of asymmetry to the upside. Uh, you could do like a 720 730 call spread and give yourself this asymmetric risk profile where you still pick up a credit in the middle, but you really gain value on the upside move. So, just

[8:44:26] an idea. wide. That's That's a very wide Super Bowl. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Um as we got a couple of seconds here, just Can we pull up that graphic again? Average stock versus S&P 500. Uh it's a

[8:44:40] Average stock versus S&P 500. Uh it's a pretty good one showing again the um the uh equal weight is up 13% year to date. It's been an interesting year when you charts, but the equal weight has been outperforming more recently. And uh can

[8:44:53] we pull up the 20 stocks that hit the new highs? right? >> Yeah, RSP is equal weight. And Apple's been one of those that hit new highs yesterday. Um, has earnings tonight.

[8:45:06] But, uh, by and large, it's um, you know, kind of consumer stapley type of names. A lot of insurance in here. Even real estate and SPG. I haven't seen that name in forever, but Allstate, AFLAC, uh, Chub, um, Principal Financial, I

[8:45:21] mean, Hig, a lot of insurance names there. Metife. Wow. Interesting. A >> too. This is a visual representation of what you have been saying because this is if these are the ones at their new highs, this is definitely a rotation. If

[8:45:35] you would have looked at this in July, right? Like I mean earlier in July or at have seen all tech stocks. >> Yep. Mhm. So with 30 seconds to go to we've come in, right? We've seen the rotation. Is the rotation still a thing?

[8:45:49] Is it still happening? Or did it change after yesterday's news? I think it's still uh still a real thing. I think RSP being just gapping thing. I think RSP being just gapping higher as the uh SPY product is gapping

[8:46:02] higher as the uh SPY product is gapping down just speaks to the Mag 7 uh >> But yeah, look at this. >> They're buying them into the open. >> We'll see if it holds in second here. There's the bell.

[8:46:15] >> take us right to your butterfly mic. [laughter] come on NDX. >> I know, right? Open. do something >> Um, >> I also wanted to address the fact, you

[8:46:27] know, it's a bed mark. >> God, Microsoft took you so long. >> Yeah, Microsoft. >> Okay, two grand is popping around. This thing is going to fly around like these bid these marks are so insane.

[8:46:40] >> Hell yeah. >> Microsoft though, quick? I just want because you and I and Jamal, we're all experienced traders in this facet. So, I love that you knew that that it was a bad mark. So, some

[8:46:53] might look at that on the open, you know, you're not out money in that trade. It's when the markets are so wide overnight that it's it's just a bad this, I'm going to guess those markets are pretty wide. It could even be more

[8:47:05] >> Yeah. >> Yeah. It it it marked bad yesterday >> Yeah. So, if you ever see this where like it's flying around, you can see like it's flying around, you can see it's 27 22 18 blah blah blah. uh you

[8:47:18] should if you're trying to exit, you should always exit near the uh ask like near the ask price or the bid in terms of where your your better price is on an exit. So like for me, if I were getting out of this trade, my ask is uh the

[8:47:33] natural price, which is buying it back, but I would I would want to just put this for as good of a a profit as I can and then work it down towards the middle >> just so you're not giving up any sort of uh premium there. It looks like they

[8:47:45] >> What's that? >> Got a little flare out to the right. >> I had noticed that. Kind of fun. I know, right? >> Um >> um I just got a uh Super Bowl in Meta.

[8:47:58] >> um I just got a uh Super Bowl in Meta. Um I did the 5 sold the four 500 490 put spread to buy the 650 670. I got a $1.15 credit. >> So, um that's pretty good. >> That's in September.

[8:48:11] >> Yeah. Okay. >> October. >> Yeah, I like that. I mean, it's it's down 60 points, but intraday we're picking up uh a little bit of a bid here. But Microsoft, what a move in

[8:48:25] here. But Microsoft, what a move in Microsoft. This thing. Uh so I put on this call crab trade, this really wide call crab trade to wrap around the rest money in all three of them. >> Uh and that's exactly what is happening

[8:48:38] here. So I I got to get out of this 450 460 diagonal spread for sure. because uh this one was just kind of a Hail Mary. I just had this on and I I kept rolling this premium, but this is going to be a net winner here into this

[8:48:54] massive move. Uh >> actually had a random leftover 425 call [laughter] >> Yeah, >> for sure. I got diagonals. I got the 450, 470, 500 di I'm sorry, not

[8:49:07] 450, 470, 500 di I'm sorry, not diagonals, 450, 470, and 500 calendars. Um, short August, long SAP. I'm doing nothing on those right now. I got a Super Bowl that's this thing is running. Holy cow. Um, I got a Super Bowl that's

[8:49:22] close this. >> I don't want to, though. You know what? time, bro. >> Been backing you for a long time. long-term calendar spread is was up is up $700 today.

[8:49:35] >> That's a That's a calendar home run. >> That's a calendar home run for sure. Uh thing in in meta right now. Like if you want you could do some longer calendars. >> it's probably another way to play it. >> Um so that the diagonal I just closed

[8:49:50] was the max profit point on my max loss on this uh crab trade that I have. So I wrapped around I wrapped this crab trade where my my max loss zone is at 460, but

[8:50:03] the previous diagonal I just closed has a max profit at 460. So I closed that. just because we're already past the short options here. 15 points past. So, the further this thing rallies, the uh more I'm going to lose value on this

[8:50:18] just want to get out of this thing. I'll keep the calendar on and then see if see if we can uh get up to 500. That calendar will be a huge winner. Uh and that great. So,

[8:50:32] diagonal and a crab. a crab you can actually lose if you if it goes to your if it continues going in the direction you wanted it to go a diagonally you can >> Yep. Okay. I was just price improved big time

[8:50:46] on that. Like 50 cents. So 250 bucks for that crab trade. >> Uh closed the diagonal spread for a similar profit. >> Uh yeah 253 bucks here

[8:50:58] >> and then >> yeah 500 bucks on that uh diagonal >> yeah 500 bucks on that uh diagonal spread. I had the 460 450 spread. I had the 460 450 uh a while back and then uh rolled that

[8:51:10] short option and then closed the whole package for $1,000. So, what a day for >> Yeah, how about it? Uh what's going on with Palunteer and the rest of the gang? with Palunteer and the rest of the gang? Palunteer's down. Oracle is up. Um who

[8:51:26] else is in that group? CRM. CRM's down. That works out. Remember I put those >> Mhm. That should be working right about now. >> Yeah, we put yesterday was crazy. We put on a Super Bowl at the low, Liz, uh for

[8:51:40] down like 100 points. I was like, if they just don't if they don't raise the I think. And that's exactly what happened. Closed it out and then like 10 started to fall again and then it just fell out of bed. It was crazy.

[8:51:56] something on and it's closed and then it reverses? It's the It's a bizarre >> Yeah. It's almost better than like having the win in general. It's It's >> I know. And do you know what is crazy too is we're the only junkies that you

[8:52:10] happened. >> Yeah. >> Um but yeah, Microsoft, all I have left is that call calendar spread. What a what a move today. That is a huge move. 60 points. Crazy.

[8:52:25] >> Yeah. Consumer staples. So, the rotation is still in effect. I mean the consumer staples are are down you know Kroger, McDonald's, STZ, Colgate, Paul Malo, McDonald's, STZ, Colgate, Paul Malo, Proctor and Gamble, they are down today.

[8:52:38] rotation. >> That makes me feel earnings. Did I miss happened. I need I was looking at that. Oh yeah, I wanted to do something in here. >> I think I want to sell up 10%.

[8:52:50] >> It's hard to sell a call in this thing. This thing is [clears throat] >> I know uh Amazon and Apple are the stars of the show today. I understand that. Is there any fringe players that have earnings?

[8:53:03] >> I don't think so. We could check though. Uh let's look let's take a look. Let's sort by today. So we had some this morning pre-market. Uh but after the morning pre-market. Uh but after the market today, we've got Amazon and

[8:53:17] >> Yeah, there's actually a couple Coinbase. Micro Strategies is also one that has earnings. >> Um, Reddit, Roblox,

[8:53:29] >> And I feel like they're going to get they're not going to get traded as much the same time. >> Yeah. Oh, [clears throat] SIBO's >> Is it? Oh, yeah. They're going to it's interesting because you know they're

[8:53:42] going to have to what they're going to say about the perpetual futures. >> Yeah, that comes out. That's the first earnings after that down move, isn't it? >> Interesting. >> Yeah. After this liquidation event.

[8:53:57] >> That was the biggest over That was the biggest overreaction I'd ever seen. >> That's what we were talking about with Yum Brands, too, with the the Taco Bell look at you look at some of these charts and these these really like freak things

[8:54:10] that happen and there's opportunity there. Like Yum Brands just gapped thing. They had earnings and they were like, "Uh, yeah, some people had some problems with our Taco Bell, but that doesn't mean our profits have problems."

[8:54:24] >> I love Taco Bell. I hate to admit it. It's one of my I love it. [laughter] >> What's What's your go-to order? >> So, uh, when I was in college, we lived air conditioning, so my windows were always open. And the drive-thru at

[8:54:37] Bell. Would you like to try a rancho steak burrito?" And I would wake up in steak burrito." They don't [laughter] >> subtle. Yeah. While you're sleeping, you're hearing that just subtly >> all night long. No, I uh I used to love

[8:54:50] the Mexican pizza, which is now gone, but now you like you're one of the pizza but now you like you're one of the pizza people.