Market Reversal & AI Capex Fears — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[01:58] you've had this seessaw action and then What do they say? I don't know. Um, we got PG, you got UPS, some of these other consumer staples names we've been talking about. Um, Mastercard, Robin

[02:12] going on with trading. I I watched that stock. Actually, I was thinking about selling a put in there this week. That stock was down like 6% the other day. Um, so like things like that. It's going to be Roblox. How much money is that

[02:25] company, you know, things like that, man. Um, what's that over there? Is that No, that's Coca-Cola. So yeah, it's going to be um again there's going to be questions answered this week.

[02:38] >> Yeah, also get a look at uh Visa, Mastercard, a little consumer credit situation. So yeah, I think uh it's going to be wild and the market is certainly not uh giving us anything other than the fact that we're expected

[02:53] to have a pretty wild wild week with 128 point implied move this week in S&P expiring on July 31st. So, that is the biggest we've seen uh in a couple weeks here, but for good reason. We have all these tech stocks. We have the uh Fed

[03:08] announcement as well. And I just looked at the CME Fed Watch tool, and that at the CME Fed Watch tool, and that thing is not decisive at all. Uh this is the first time in a couple weeks where I feel like uh or I should say a couple of

[03:20] feel like uh or I should say a couple of decisions where we have not seen a 99% leaning in one direction, 1% uh we're not, you know, hiking or cutting. Right now it's a 7030 with two days left. >> That's very indecisive for sure.

[03:35] >> But uh as Mr. Veio has said many times, they don't like to give you surprises surprises are the ones that really rock the market and we've seen that happen before where you have a 50 point move implied move for S&P there's some

[03:49] surprise and then we have a 200 point uh move in either direction. So, I doubt they'll they'll surprise, but still interesting to see that we've got a 7030 announcement. >> Yeah, kind of is interesting. Um, and

[04:04] meanwhile, all we've seen is interest rates going higher most days um more than not over the last couple of weeks. So, there is starting to be some some building pressure um with regard to rate hikes.

[04:16] hikes. >> Yeah. Uh Ein at 62 uh up 62 sitting >> Yeah. Uh Ein at 62 uh up 62 sitting around 7510. NASDAQ at 286. So, yeah, really strong morning here. We were just talking pre-market that we might want to

[04:29] be looking at a a super bear here. Just throw on a little downside delta. Uh throw on a little downside delta. Uh we're going to open around 7480ish. Uh you can see that here with the similar price puts and calls in S&P. So,

[04:45] going up here for the 1day cycle is where I was looking. maybe like the 7500, 7510. That would bring us up another 20 points. Uh which means the E- Minis would be close to being up a 100 points today on just a a really strong

[05:00] >> that's actually where I looked this morning when I briefly checked it out uh >> Um and I know where Well, I just want to read off I want to read off this poll chat. Biggest week of the summer, four of the MAG7 report. The Fed decides

[05:15] Wednesday and we get GDP and PCE to close it out. We listen. So tell us what you guys want to see. So far, leader in the clubhouse is earnings and how to the clubhouse is earnings and how to trade, how to trade the moves 35%. Uh

[05:28] macro week, Fed GDP and inflation 29%. Next, strategy and premium selling lessons 20%. And live trade breakdowns all week 16%. Guess what? We do all four anyway. So I mean it' be great. >> That's true. Uh but yeah, definitely we

[05:43] will definitely have earnings and how to trade them. Uh also check out the news have some >> written earnings previews as well with uh some information that you should be paying attention to for each particular

[05:57] implied volatility environment there too. So news and insights tab on Tasty you this week. But we got Chris Veio on the line. Uh Chris, happy Monday.

[06:09] you doing? >> I I'm doing great. Uh my war on uh on on plants is winning. It's turned the corner. >> Yeah. >> It's like the band War on Drugs, but you

[06:23] are the lead member of War on Plants. >> I know, right? >> Yes. We No, we've we've won. They're in retreat. They're dying off. Uh the chemical warfare has succeeded. >> Congrats on your win.

[06:36] >> Now, is it Wait, is it officially over? I mean, there's a lot of wars these days any light of anything. I'm just making light of media more than anything. light of media more than anything. >> Uh, that is true. So, I think President

[06:49] Trump has a 16 war is over lead on me right now. Um, but I will be back to air. So, we'll start catching up. >> Yes. >> Um, yeah, we're looking at these markets

[07:02] up 63. Uh, E- Minis up 63. NASDAQ up 370. I have a super bare routed here. filled here. Five point wide call spread to buy a 15point wide put spread just

[07:15] uh short call spread. I was just filled. There you go. 50. one of these on just about every day this week. >> Feels it feels right into a 60 point rally pre-market. Um I don't know. I

[07:28] just don't see it going significantly higher than this. But if we do, it'll be have. And it's really not that much risk. 450 bucks in the one day cycle. Uh but if we do reverse, I've got that 15 point wide put spread that will uh

[07:43] spread? >> 75 or sorry, 7,400 7385. pretty close to the current market price. So nice.

[07:56] >> Chris, what are you looking at? you know, I'm you just had me, you know, peing my interest here, thinking about the S&P ZTE right now. Um because the move is pretty wide. I mean, we're trading 741

[08:20] around 7480. 74 >> 7480 or so. >> I'm going to go a little more aggressive. I'm going to go 74 7420. >> Well, look, rest of the day today and I

[08:32] with the Fed on Wednesday real quick because there is this tendency in the market what's known as the uh premcy drift. The New York Fed's Liberty Street economics blog has uh documented this uh

[08:45] tendency in markets over the years where the market tends to just basically calm down. Precoid it was more like the market would just rally into the Fed meeting. Now it's more just like the market just drifts into the FB meeting

[08:57] hours ahead of time. So once you get to the European close tomorrow, the market then kind of calms down. So I'm trying to envision what's the catalyst map between now and we'll call it noon Eastern tomorrow, right? The answer is

[09:10] not much. And so kind of like Friday when we were looking at the uh zero DT spx short iron condor, we've had the move for today by and large. Is oil going to decline another six or 7% here? Mike, as much as I hate your super bear,

[09:23] for my own biased book positioned reasons, it does make a good deal of the next notch. So, not only do we have the Fed Wednesday, of course, we have these major tech earnings coming up as well. Uh, this feels like a reaction

[09:37] bounce, but quick little peak there at the SR3 contract. Rate high odds are not going down. They've given up all of their uh retreat overnight. So, how much really run today? I I think if we're looking for market to get pinned or pull

[09:51] back in, uh that makes a lot of sense from where I sit. from where I sit. >> Chris, I mean, um how do I put it? I have never applied a trade so much that I want to lose every time. Like when I

[10:07] put on a super bear, I I wanted to lose. I really do. I I have no desire to win on this trade. Um, and the best part about it is that when you are winning, this particular day because we're down 70 and this actually really helps out

[10:20] today. That's always my thought process. >> Yeah. No, I I I get it. I'm I'm thinking uh look, we we've had the big earnings or goods orders. Has the market done anything with it? No. Oil's still down

[10:35] 6%. Right? Let's just keep those two things in mind right now. How much oil how much further does oil need to fall to keep spurring on this rally? Um, >> I've The question is to me is how are you guys playing oil here? Because

[10:49] mover today. There are some pre-market movers. SK Highix, Shell, Chevron. None of them are moving as much as oil though, which that's rare. Rarely do we see a semiconductor not plus or minus 10% in the pre-market these days.

[11:04] first. Um, yeah, I have I've had some positions in oil. Into the rally, I sold an iron condor that was leaning a little bit bullish. So, I had the 70 95 short options and then uh defined risk half a

[11:18] point wide. That was a $200 credit. So, risking 300 to collect 200. Uh, this is coming in nicely today with the selloff. But this is really my big position that I have. I moved out to the V contract in MCL, which is trading around 81 right

[11:35] now. I have the 80 strike straddle with 1175 in credit. So, um, this will be looking good. Really, I was just I needed to not have this thing go up to like 120. Uh, so this this selloff is nice for both these positions, but

[11:49] that's how I'm positioned here. I'll just keep this on. And, uh, looking at just keep this on. And, uh, looking at the crude oil curve, you can see we have lost a little bit of backwardation and the back months have dropped quite a

[12:01] bit. These were at 7475 last week. peak. Now they're at 7271. Uh the 200 day, 300 day cycles, but still pretty elevated regardless over the next couple of months here. >> Mhm. Um I did uh two different three

[12:16] different trades actually in oil last week. Um all of them centered around our trade of the day segment, which by the way that that um starts at 11:30 a.m. Central time today. Uh myself followed by Mike uh followed by Errol and then

[12:29] also we have a guest guest trader for that trade of the day. But um the first trade I did last week was was the strangle the 80. It was actually the 758 sorry 7595 strangle that I eventually turned into the 8095 strangle. Um but

[12:44] then the best trade actually occurred maybe on Thursday I think. Um I did a ratio spread. I did a 1x3 ratio spread. I bought one and this is uh the all of these are in the August 17 cycle. Um I bought uh an MCL. I bought one of the 80

[12:58] and 1 halfs and sold three of the 75 1 halfs and um got a 81 ccent credit for also buy a put spread. So kind of similar to what I did did to the downside. This time I bought a put spread the 78.76 put spread in

[13:15] a put spread the 78.76 put spread in regular CL for uh 48 cents. It's now trading 67 cents. And so as soon as the head those headlines hit like Friday I think it was, you know, I I I retweeted um those headlines out and said um this

[13:28] is possibly once again the headline that leads to some deescalation. And somebody said that is the kiss of death. What do you mean? Why would you do that? And this morning I just responded with the Justin Timberlake gift where he just

[13:42] >> Really, dude? >> Is it It's Jeff. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it is. >> Yeah. Whatever you say, dude. >> Is this like a Midwest, East Coast thing? Like you guys say GIF, we say

[13:55] >> Uh, yeah, sure. Uh, anyway. >> Okay, >> GIF. That's right, GIF. I don't care what you say. You're not going to change >> But yeah, I just I just responded with that and just really come on and do this

[14:10] >> Uh, yeah. Friday, President Trump is talking about he had a big surprise planned for Iran. And you know, he's going to destroy them in a way that they had never been destroyed before, which seemed like the ending civilization

[14:23] March, which preceded, of course, a ceasefire, something that we commented ceasefire, something that we commented about here on air. Um, so yeah, I mean, I I I'm still leaning long a 98 97 put spread here that is doing a little bit

[14:36] better today with a decline of 6%. short iron condors. Um there's some stuff sitting out a little bit longer dated somewhat funny. My thing that's sitting at 52 days to expiration, the short call spread side of a short iron condor is

[14:48] maybe I put that on a little bit too early before the V inflated. So even though prices are off 6% today, it's not exactly that that leg of the trade is not in positive here. But I I think we shouldn't just continue to operate in

[15:01] to the upside right now in the short term probably not going to work. I'd where you got that four or five day run where oil peeled off like 13 bucks once their way through the straight horses again. So, uh, if you're trading oil,

[15:16] dare I say you need to keep on your, uh, AIS trackers to see what ships are because if that oil flow picks up again, then Mike, that backwardation that had out of this market once more. >> Yeah. Yeah. I think uh it's it's been

[15:32] >> Yeah. Yeah. I think uh it's it's been it's been a very it's behaved very uh very well in terms of what you would expect to happen uh which has been nice. >> orderly. >> Very orderly.

[15:44] >> Could I uh pick your guys brain here? I was going through the top tickers that are being uh engaged with on Reddit this morning. Some interesting names on morning. Some interesting names on there. Top one is Micron Spy. HBM Hudday

[15:57] there. Top one is Micron Spy. HBM Hudday Baze Materials. HBM apparently is something Hud Bay Minerals, excuse me. >> So much for me doing my research ahead >> type of chip too though. HBM. Just curious, right?

[16:09] >> Yeah. High bandwidth memory. So, it got me thinking maybe um some folks are buying HBM because they think it's a semiconductor stock. uh SpaceX, Microsoft, CME clocks in as the sixth most upvoted ticker on Reddit broadly.

[16:25] look across stocks, investing, everything. >> I know that single stock futures have started to go live here, Mike. I'm curious what your thoughts are on these and you know, what place they play in a

[16:37] active traders portfolio. >> Yeah, I think it's uh the future is uh everything instantly like that's what it is. So anything that these these big

[16:49] firms can do to give us more accessibility and when I say us I mean accessibility and when I say us I mean retail traders uh the better. So global retail traders uh the better. So global trading hours is going to transition in

[17:01] going to transition to global trading hours for equities and the option space. of of how you know how to trade options because now I shouldn't say now, but in

[17:13] the future, you'll be able to actually trade Nvidia earnings and get in and get out as it's happening. You won't have to hold it until after the close or or the the next morning. Like how many times have we had a calendar spread that right

[17:29] at like at 3:30 or 3:00 it the market moves to the calendar spread and then by >> Mhm. >> Like that that >> that's I felt the diagonal last week with with now it's like all right we're

[17:42] and I come back the next morning I'm like what the heck is this? What are you >> Yeah that's exactly it. I mean when I traded at a firm you could trade stock market. You can sorry you can trade stock in the after hours and you have

[17:56] everybody doesn't have the ability to do that and most of us have to wait till >> Yeah. >> So uh once that goes away it will be a whole new world. >> Yeah. Right now it's 50 large uh

[18:09] companies. It's not every single stock out there. So you mentioned Nvidia. Sure. But if you're trading something like uh don't know if Corning would be one of the names that's initially up on the

[18:22] board. Probably not. Unless they use it as a test test pancake. >> I mean, I'm guessing if you said it's 50, Chris, so I mean, it's probably the >> right. >> It's probably the Yeah,

[18:36] >> the top 50 market feels like Yeah, it's definitely going to be your household >> Yeah, >> this shirt is pretty green this morning. Uh just just, you know, >> the only red

[18:49] morning. This is This is like salmon at best. You got to least I don't think I am. Um, >> no, I was just looking at a heat map. except for the little small quadrant of energy. Uh, Exxon, Chevron, uh, Kico

[19:06] that company was. I was like, COP, haven't traded that thing in forever. today. >> Yeah. Uh, >> very green out there today. >> Lots of uh earnings here this week. And

[19:20] last price. >> So I mean I mean we're all in agreement it's going to get really um and just so so people know who watch the show. I I it's going to get really slow and quiet on Tuesday, right? Like Tuesday midm

[19:34] >> I was saying like Tuesday afternoon is probably tomorrow afternoon is probably Jamal, you just mentioned this is a big sea of green here. Um uh we've got 71 companies in the United States that have uh market caps $200

[19:50] States that have uh market caps $200 billion or more. Um seven of them are trading in the red this morning. So most of the market here is up. >> Mhm. >> Right. 63 63 of those 71 are positive.

[20:03] One is flat. Seven are down. >> Yeah. Join us on the YouTube channel if your trade ideas and questions along the right hand side chat. Uh it's going to be one of those days today and tomorrow where uh we are just looking for trade

[20:20] setups and I feel like that's going to be uh how a lot of people are operating waiting for these Wednesday reports uh especially with the big names but you still have some that are reporting like after the close today. Uh but tomorrow

[20:33] morning you you have some creep in here. uh Boeing tomorrow morning before the open. Any interest in in these kind of stocks or we are we sticking to tech? >> I mean last week I put on the 7880 uh short put spread in Coca-Cola because it

[20:48] had taken a little bit of a dip back towards its uh 50-day and it was after that hack related news which to me doesn't okay whatever. Uh so that seems to be perking up here a little bit in the pre-market. I think 82 83 right now

[21:02] exposure in names like your Proctor and Gamble, Kimberly Clark, the non- tech market is trying to rotate and and get out of tech and but stay into the market itself a little bit more defensive. Um these aren't the sexiest names on the

[21:18] that don't move around a lot. So when you had that volatility spike and a little bit of a pullback here, maybe it's an opportunity. uh 87 IVR and super high raw volatility there, but maybe still some things to chew on the

[21:32] >> I'm with you. I still have the Costco. I still have the Walmart. These are, you know, part of the portfolio. Pepsi, uh Colgate, Palm Olive, Kroger, Box A, Colgate, Palm Olive, Kroger, Box A, um ST, Constellation, uh Constellation,

[21:47] Constellation Brands, STZ, uh Proctor and Gamble. So, I'm with you. I got some portfolio. Yeah, Mike, it's not just the uh tech midweek because STX and CLA have their earnings tomorrow as well, which semiconductor companies, chip companies

[22:02] pullback here. I think Clack's down a third of its value since its highs uh last trading day of June. So, it's been a fun month of July here. >> What's been working is the butterflies

[22:14] and mic I've been doing them in Micron and Sandis. They have worked out well. and Sandis. They have worked out well. Um I um I had a call butterfly. I had a cobbler fly in both micron and sand disk. I took the micron and one off

[22:27] to put both of them on and I left the sandisk one on for a while. I probably should have taken it off on Thursday. But what I did do is put on a put they both slid. That worked out really well. Nice little win there in Micron.

[22:42] >> Yeah, I mean Micron's been absolutely chopping around. This is it's this looks visually narrow but it is absolutely not. uh this is a,000 point uh this is have a 200 point range where every single day you've been basically getting

[22:58] a 30 to 50 point range uh and realized move to the upside and downside. So yeah, the butterflies great way to take advantage of that volatility. SanDisk is >> I mean they breeze you buy them for like

[23:12] you're able to sell them for like $1,500. Say what? I'm the call butterfly for this week for uh the upside call butterfly in Micron. So 1025 1015 1035

[23:24] profit of 980. That's just at the expected move. So >> yeah, I got one on right now. Um the 1,100 1,100 wait no I got $50 wide,1050100

[23:38] and I paid I just bought it late on the day. I4 $460. So $4.60 I paid for it. $50 wide butterfly. Come on. >> Quite nice. >> Yeah, I tried to get one on Sandis, but it was too expensive. My a similar deal.

[23:53] I try to get 100 point wide. You got to I mean Sandis has got to be 100 point wide. It's can't be 50. It's not going to, you know. Um but it's when I'm in Chicago next week. Come on, make it happen.

[24:05] >> Heck yeah. Nice. Um but it's uh it's it's um I I was trying to get it for, you know, like $700 or something. It was it was stuck at 900,000. That's a little too expensive. >> Yeah. Micron sitting at 900 $20 price

[24:21] point. So, a little bit more narrow is okay, but still 50 points wide for 500 okay, but still 50 points wide for 500 bucks is a really nice riskreward there. Sure. Uh Boeing's up three bucks pre-market. I think this could be an

[24:34] interesting one, especially given the crude oil situation. Uh, but this is still not that high of implied volatility. 11 point implied move on a $200 stock is on the lower end of the range at like 5% notional. Uh, but you

[24:51] kind of have your classic two times the earnings week. You go out to September. So 20 point move there, 11 point move for the week. You can set up something nicely here with a 37% IV in the back months if you can afford to do so like a

[25:06] spread. You're going to be able to reduce basis pretty dramatically here. Even if you did a calendar spread uh near the stock price, you're picking up near the stock price, you're picking up $600 for this week on a $13 debit uh $13

[25:20] >> Actually, you know what's funny? I and then look at the chart. Look at Boeing's chart. the chart, right? And then I just remembered LMT had earnings last week.

[25:33] Look at that LMT chart. So, I think we might be playing Boeing. >> Huge move last week. I remember that. Forgot about it until just now. Forgot about it until just now. >> Yeah. Lockheed Martin. Good old Good old

[25:48] military. >> So, okay. >> Couple of days. Oh, yeah. Uh but yeah, Boeing. >> Boeing is going to be uh something to keep an eye on, especially with the

[26:02] information we got in LMC. Love it. >> It's too bad we're out of time where I could say Jamal, we could talk about Vin episode. >> Table that. Table that. Um yeah, it's uh

[26:18] it's an interesting day today. Ein up 65. NASDAQ up 400. Down the Russell up 1% as well. Chris, appreciate your time. We will see you a little bit later. >> See you shortly. >> See you. Uh yeah, join us on the YouTube

[26:32] any of these stocks reporting this week. There are hundreds and hundreds of stocks reporting. Uh whether it's tech, whether it's Boeing, whatever you want going to take a quick 90 second break. We'll see you on the other side. You're

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[29:25] the show. E- minis are still chugging along. Up 66 now, NASDAQ up 414. Uh YouTube chat. Thanks for joining us there. Uh just head over to Tasty Live your trade ideas questions in that chat and we will get to them today and

[29:41] tomorrow most likely. It's probably going to be a kind of a slow quiet these tech stocks. >> Yeah. Um so first question is a first time viewer here. Uh thanks for watching the show. Glad you're here. Hope we

[29:57] don't go too over your head today. Um but uh we we we appreciate you showing up. Thanks. Hopefully there's more of you. Can you define what a super bear trade is? >> We sure can. We sure can. Um, so

[30:15] super bear and super bull. Uh, a super bear is just a bearish version of it where you're selling a call spread to buy a put spread and you're buying the put spread. Uh, you're basically you're getting into that long put spread for a

[30:27] credit because you're selling a call spread that's worth more than the put spread you're buying. Same thing with the Super Bowl. It's the exact opposite a call spread, but the call spread is worth less than the put spread you sell.

[30:40] Uh so if we isolate this one day trade that I have here, you can see uh I've got a five point wide put spread here or sorry 5 wide call spread that I sold to buy a further out of the money 15 wide put spread. So the super bear is a

[30:58] I would collected. So if all these options expire worthless, I have a 50cent gain. My max loss is 450 bucks through tomorrow because I have a five point wide call spread that I sold and collected 50. So just like a traditional

[31:12] short call spread, you have that credit that offsets some of your risk to the upside, but I have a lot of uh convexity to the downside and gamma to the downside because I have this long put spread that's currently worth a very

[31:26] small amount. But if the E- minis sell off and we go from being up 60 to only being up 30 to only being up 20 to 10 to zero, like if we if we somehow flip this zero, like if we if we somehow flip this and we go down red on the day, this is a

[31:38] $1,500 max profit winner. So the super bear and the super bull are trades where you're giving up some of that credit in just selling a call to buy a put spread

[31:50] to increase your max profit. I'm talking like 10x literally. Um, so in my mind we've been answering emails and talking to people for years and years and years

[32:02] have or one of the issues that people have is like I'm selling this premium uh especially defined risk premium because undefined risk premium you have so much you can so much you can flexible flexibly maneuver those strikes and the

[32:17] strikes the expirations like the mees and M andq positions we have on like we those things like literally But if we had defined risk counterparts, we cannot do that. Like we want to keep our risk defined, we really are limited

[32:30] >> So with that said, >> a super bear and a super bull for the in >> a super bear and a super bull for the in the same light is a way to increase your max profit on the days where you're really directionally right and still

[32:43] give yourself that neutral premium if you're slightly wrong and really your another $100. Like if I sold this call spread by itself, I think it was trading for $160 or $1.70. I'm giving up a dollar of that to 10x my max profit to

[32:58] the downside if we get a really aggressive move down. So I think it really helps answer the question or solve that that riddle of I have all and a couple of losers that I've accumulated in a row really wiped me

[33:12] out. You need to have some kind of offsetting component and I think this is one way to tackle that. Well, and the big thing too is that uh typically when you buy a put spread, you have to subtract that value from your expected

[33:25] between the strikes, right? So, in this case, you could potentially make, you case, you could potentially make, you know, uh $1,000, but if you had paid $3 profit is only 700. By selling that call spread, we're able to reduce that,

[33:38] doesn't come without potential loss. When it moves to the upside, there's an extra kicker of potential loss on the upside, right? Um, so it's just a it's it's a a trade that we've learned. I would say the other thing too, the

[33:51] biggest question I feel like I get a lot about this trade is when to take it off. I get so many questions about that. A lot of times, like I I I kind of joked of what I paid on this trade. Mostly because I I'm aware of the market such

[34:06] that um when S&P is above 7500, I have a lot of positions that are doing well to of fact, that loss that I'm losing on the super bear is hidden in my portfolio for the most part. Um, and and I think that the answer is kind of personal for

[34:20] you know, finance is personal. People say this all the time. It's definitely the case with this trade. If you make $100 on this thing, you might be glad to deal with the potential reversal and upside risk. I mean, some people were

[34:33] are willing to hold it for longer. Um, I will say, you know, in the event of um what's your your max win on here is like what $1,400 $1,500? like you'd have to aggressive move through all those strikes and even then you're not going

[34:46] to be looking at a $1,500 win until the times where we've had the aggressive move to the downside through both of my move to the downside through both of my long and short uh put strikes and I I

[34:59] potentially have a $1,500 gain and it's only about $1,100 and I just take that off and I'm just like um cuz I know I have much more risk of this reversal coming and I'm losing that that kind of gain versus um potentially making

[35:12] another $300 or $400. So I think the answer is is different for everybody. I answer. Um, I know a lot of people are usually trying to figure out, okay, when of stop loss or something can I put on uh to take it off after or or a

[35:26] potential closing order. I really think it's different for everybody. >> Yeah. And uh to your point on profit targets, I think if this was uh because much we can make, we also know to your point, you're not going to get the max

[35:42] profit until literal expiration. And you can see this here, I swapped this zone over to Theo. Uh I would really encourage everyone to to learn how to use the analysis tool if you have not already just to mess around with like uh

[35:56] you know theoreticals. So S&P closed at 7411 on Friday. We are up 62 points in the E- mini futures right now. If the E- mini futures go flat and we erase the 60 point selloff, we will be right back at

[36:09] 7411 in S&P. And the P&L Theo is telling me if I don't change implied volatility at all and this is just intraday that'll be a $500 winner if we get a sell off be a $500 winner if we get a sell off that much. Uh this position has a max

[36:22] profit of $1,500. So if we if that did happen, also I have all these other bullish positions on in my portfolio. So I might be inclined to leave this on if off and let's say crude oil ripped higher and there something was happening

[36:36] was happening. I would be probably inclined to to keep this on uh because I against the rest of my portfolio. But if this was just like my only position, I'm

[36:48] I'm just looking for like a 20% or a 20 point sell off, 30 point sell off from here and I would close it for 300 bucks and that would be my my day day trade, >> Yeah. >> Uh so it's it's different depending on

[37:00] the situation at hand. Um but yeah, hopefully that helps. really the strike selection uh in this case is we kind of just go to the expected move or around the expected move which you can see on the orange bar here if you look at uh

[37:15] the orange bar here if you look at uh the trade tab or the table in the zero day and in ES you can see this here S&P uh we're working on getting some more indicators for pre-market movement so you can clearly see where the market is

[37:27] but this is where we kind of go so like in ES look at selling the 7530 uh 7535 in ES look at selling the 7530 uh 7535 for.7 and then buying the 74.90 something like this. Really the important thing is routing it for a

[37:43] doesn't matter what happens in the middle here you still keep that premium >> and uh in this case it's 80 cents uh or 80 cent credit which is 40 cent exttrinsic value. So now while while we're here um let's address the other

[37:58] question that we have here where uh they're asking um you know why do you always put Super Bowls of Super Bears on one DTE? What's the logic behind that? Why not zero DTE or why not two to three DTE which is um a great question. I mean

[38:13] I um I would say you know I know recently we've kind of gotten caught up and kind of having fun with doing kind of zero DTE on these but we definitely pay attention to DTE with this. We we definitely will look and this is a great

[38:25] week for it where you could literally do these um on Wednesday night ahead of or I should say after the Fed. Uh you could do it for Thursday night after the earnings that come out um on Thursday. So I mean it's definitely something that

[38:38] we often look at doing. It it also things change a whole lot too. Obviously start to go out just a little bit even a you'll start to see it's a little bit harder sometimes to line it up with a

[38:50] credit. Um, I mean it's always possible, but I would say, you know, um, in my major strikes, at least for put strikes, right? Like right now, I just lined mine right? Like right now, I just lined mine up, my put spread lined up the 7525,

[39:05] 7510, cuz again, I lined it up on those big strikes. So whether it's 7, you have yours around, I'm sorry, I lined my 7425, 7410. You lined yours up around 7,400. We're usually looking to do things like

[39:17] convexity at those different strikes in the S&P 500 at plenty of times. So, it just does depend too. Um I'll let you address. Yeah, I think it's uh the nice

[39:30] thing about these trades and it doesn't help it doesn't help give you a definite answer, but the nice thing about these trades and the difference about these trades versus a zero-day iron condor or a one-day iron condor like a one day if

[39:44] I'm doing an iron condor where I really want to get all of that premium today, then I'd have to go with a zero-day iron condor. Uh because I know that if I throw this on and we chop around here in SPX, I'm going to be able to to keep

[39:58] that premium and the premium decay is so aggressive that uh I have the ability to really withstand a lot of movement if we just chop around here for a couple of hours at 65. Like I'll get a lot of that premium immediately. But these trades

[40:12] are not necessarily premium decay trades like an iron condor. They're more directional trade, much more directional trades. Um, so yes, the fact that you trades. Um, so yes, the fact that you can buy a put spread for $1.85 and then

[40:26] spread for a little bit more and route it for a credit in the 2-day cycle. Uh, this is really a directional trade and you can see it in your curve analysis. Like an iron condor, you just have flat neutral premium. But this kind of trade,

[40:42] neutral premium. But this kind of trade, if we uh zoom out here, you have the ability to, you know, make all that premium in the middle. So, if I route this for a credit and I flip this over to expiration, you can see, yes, I I'm

[40:56] the two-day cycle if we just chop and I'm I'm directionally wrong. But if I'm directionally right, I can make a lot more than just the call spread. Uh so, with that said, expiration is really your choice. like what what zone do you

[41:10] want to what what zone do you want to encompass in S&P? Like for me, the reason I went to the one day is because I'm thinking to myself, okay, we're up 60 points right now, 65 points right now. It's a really strong open. Like, we

[41:26] haven't seen the market open like this in quite some time. And uh I think in this situation it's like well if we continue higher and we're up 100 points, I would hate to have a max loser and then watch us be down 30 points tomorrow

[41:40] These are these are speed trades. They're not zero day iron condors where premium in the first couple of hours of trading. We want to see directional moves in these types of trades. So I I've gone to the zero day and I've

[41:54] back the next day and it was completely reversed. So because I have the ability if you're trying to encompass all the earnings and you think all the earnings you go to the 4day cycle and go to Friday and make it really make it nice

[42:10] and wide. Give yourself a nice credit in the middle and that way you can still around here. But if you're directionally right to the downside or upside or whatever your assumption is, you can keep that premium. I have one on in

[42:22] SpaceX that's two years out because it's the same story. I sold a put to buy a leap call. That's it. And I know that in the middle I I'll make 350 bucks, but upside. >> So, these trades are really flexible. I

[42:36] think the most important thing is >> staying in a reasonable range where like we could reverse down 60 points. The probability is low, but like I'm not putting my put spread 300 points out of the money to the outside. Like that

[42:48] it's not really going to move. >> That's throwing money away. >> That's throwing money away. >> Exactly. So, um, yeah, I think going to reasonable levels, sticking to, uh, round numbers, and then choosing an

[43:01] And there's no wrong answer. There really isn't. Uh, because these are where you need the market to decay uh, in a period of time. But hopefully that's helpful. Thanks for the

[43:14] continue to get questions on these because we do these, we've been doing think they're really strong trades because they're still high probability trades uh at the end of the day. But we're going to take a quick 90 second

[43:26] break. We'll be back on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Life.

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[44:52] Jamal. We got Liz Jerking on the line for some overnight move analysis. Liz, >> Oh, my weekend was great. I spent it with a lot of girlfriends from college, fun. Those

[45:07] >> Yeah, it was fun. We get we get together a a little too often now that the kids are older, so we're going to have to rein that in at some point. But it it was a good weekend. WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK about these crazy markets?

[45:20] >> I think it's uh I don't know. It's ominous. Very ominous. you still have the natural gas because tomorrow it expires. You have a completely risk-free butterfly that you took in a credit for that expires

[45:33] tomorrow and you could pin this butterfly. >> yeah, I think your middle strike is what is your middle strike? 80. >> Yeah. >> Um it's uh I have the 285

[45:46] 280. Um when originally it was the 265 butterfly and then um >> like Liz told me to do, I put in an or Yeah, you forced me. um to uh put in an order for the uh to to to sell out that

[46:03] 265 and buy the 275 and make it a symmetrical butterfly and it's risk-free and we are sitting at 278 right now on that contract and my center strike is perfection. Yeah.

[46:16] >> Yes. But once again, these are um and I I'm just giving from experience. You don't a tanker of natural gas will not show up at your house to in in my So, I leave these. >> Yeah, you're right. These are um these

[46:30] are financially settled um as as they say. So, we're good to go. I also have one in um and again, this is one that expires um tomorrow. And then I also have one in the August expiration similar way. And that one is 20 cents

[46:44] similar way. And that one is 20 cents wide. And um I am I'm long the three put. I'm long I'm short two of the 280s and I'm long one of the 250s. And I've had an order >> to um to Yeah. buy that uh sell that uh

[47:00] um I mean buy that put spread, excuse me. Um the uh 250 260 put spread. I've but it has not gotten hit because we drifted lower. So enjoy trading natural gas. I love it because you can trade it at all hours of

[47:13] the day and when you put that order in to butterfly it off, I usually will get hit in the middle of the night. >> Mhm. So yeah, hopefully, fingers today. I mean, if it expired today, we'd be in great shape. It'll move a little

[47:27] >> Nobody's paying attention to natural gas right now. >> The way that I trade it. And um this is a shout out to uh some of our old I downside ratio, butterfly off, downside ratio, butterfly off. So I have

[47:41] you can hurt me in natural gas tomorrow. >> I feel like there was an Omaha in there, but I'm going to let it go. Um yeah, that's it's a great trade. It works. >> Yeah, these these especially these high flyers, high implied volatility products

[47:55] that are chopping around. Uh but yeah, these this thing has been pretty rangebound actually for the last couple of months here, but still very volatile. 34 to 27 is a is a big move. >> Absolutely.

[48:08] >> Um >> are you positioned for any sort of S&P pre-market action? We have some super bears on because we were like, h I don't think the the EMA is going to go up 100 today, but if they do, the rest of the

[48:21] portfolio will be just fine. Um, so we put on a uh somehow five point wide call spread to finance a 15-point wide put spread for a 50cent credit. >> Did it today. We're right at the money >> in tomorrow's. I was listening to you

[48:34] reason you're going to go a day instead time. >> Yeah, 100%. Well, there's two reasons the move that of where it is right now as opposed to going tomorrow. But

[48:47] as opposed to going tomorrow. But honestly, um I would rather um I I I tomorrow's going to be kind of quiet and that's going to give us the opportunity to well, who knows where we end up trading today. Who knows what strikes

[48:59] sense. >> So, by by the by towards the middle to end of tomorrow, I would think um I will probably put one on for the next day, depends on how we're trading. You know, if we're trading different than I think

[49:14] order. But if we're really quiet, we're not really moving. I doubt I put one on in a zero day for the 28th tomorrow and I just do something for the 29th. Fed meeting. So, we have This is a fun week. It's really fun. I I love trading.

[49:28] I do. But it's fun this week because we've got the behemoths of earnings and you've got the Fed on Wednesday. So, and we also have the ability to trade S&P until 4 o'clock. So all those things kind of add up to that you can do

[49:43] a little bit farther out if you think either the Fed or the earnings move the market. You have the ability to trade it now. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Like this one. This one we put on

[49:55] for tomorrow is like right at the implied open 20 points higher than the implied open 20 points higher than the implied open at 7500 with S&P closed at 7411. We're up 60 points. So we're going to be right around 7475 7480. You can

[50:08] at the money options. So, we're right there. Uh, but to your point, Liz, if we go to the 4day, I have this butterfly on, but if we go to the 4day, uh, the

[50:20] 7500, I don't need to go there. I can go all the way up to here, like 75.50, This is a similar credit that I collected on the one day, but another 50 points higher. And then I could go to the same level here. Maybe I got to go a

[50:36] little bit lower. But still, uh, you can see if I do a 15 point wide or 10 point wide spread, I can still get this on, uh, for a credit.

[50:48] >> Yeah. As long as you you have to go further out of the money, but you don't you don't need these things to go in the money. That's another another aspect of it. Uh, you can have these things be out of the money and still appreciate

[51:00] spread that loses value on the way down and a long put spread that gains value on the way down. So yeah, >> the power of options. >> the power of options. >> Yeah, really. Yeah, we got uh Microsoft,

[51:12] >> Yeah, really. Yeah, we got uh Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, um Apple earnings. Uh we also have um obviously the Fed decision. We have a BOE decision on that Thursday. Uh after the Fed, they always go usually after us. Um and you got to remember BOE

[51:26] was like one of the ones when we raised rates in 2022. They were the ones that were raising rates prior to us. Um so you wonder what's going to happen there. and then BOE comes and raise rates, I'm curious. Uh again, that could lead to

[51:39] type of week for sure. >> Yeah, it's this is the most exciting week of the year, I think. We'll see. Who's to say? And what what do you guys gold bulls, right? Did we all We're all on the same side.

[51:52] >> We're gold I'm gold agnostic at this point. I don't have anything on in gold. point. I don't have anything on in gold. >> Uh I'm a gold bull. I have a GLD all diagonal spread on at the 380 390 strike. So, this is good. I like it.

[52:07] >> Yeah, I got nothing. I could really care less right now. It's just been in this moved much, honestly. Uh 4 4,000 clearly was the bounce area. It hasn't been able to break 4,200. I mean, it's I mean, obviously, it's a decent area like like

[52:22] here, but >> I mean, you and I both know like I I diagonal. Am I a gold bull? Yes. But am I using it? Am I using my the power of options to make a smart trade? Yes. I've got a downside broken wing butterfly in

[52:36] or actually it starts as a ratio spread. Then I then I butterfly it off in GC money if it goes down? Yes. Will I make money if it goes up? Yes. Because very similar to your Super Bowls and Super Bears, I'm taking it a decent credit. So

[52:49] because it's broken. The the wing is broken. I don't want to be tested to the to make a lot more money. >> Yeah.

[53:03] a an opinion, right? So I I am I'm out there. I say it all the time. I am a gold bull. I'm Hi, my name is Liz and I'm a gold bull. But I don't but I don't go out there and buy gold. >> Yeah. You're just trading the futures.

[53:17] Yeah. Just trading futures with options. Futures. Options. What uh what strikes do you have? >> So in GC well I have Q and I have V. So >> So in GC well I have Q and I have V. So in Q which has one day to go. I that one

[53:30] get all my collection. I collected $200 on it. So in V I have the 3960 on it. So in V I have the 3960 3950 puts uh put ratio spread and then

[53:42] um I broke it but I just I bought I did what I did in in natural gas where I all the way up to the 40. So I have I now I have a butterfly on. >> So I have this butterfly on that I have taken in $110.

[53:56] So do I want Now when you look at something like this, if I have a $110 credit on this, would you say I'm bullish or bearish? >> I would say you are bearish. >> You think I'm bearish because I have no

[54:09] risk, right? I I have no risk. >> Yeah, that's that's the only reason bearish. I don't care where gold goes, but but I originally put this on with a off. >> Yeah. So, you're down here. You need

[54:22] This is what you have. >> A nice little dollar10 regardless, but a >> So, look at this. I always say you're bullish cuz with such a big product, $4,000. Look at how little that peak is.

[54:34] >> This is why you need to build a forest. This is how you have you get a forest >> one tree. This is one tree of a forest. >> This totally reminds me of what is it? there's a chance. That was >> Dumb and Dumber.

[54:47] >> Dumb and Dumber. Thank you very much. >> There is a chance. >> There is a chance. >> Small, but it's there. When you look at >> Small, but it's there. When you look at the gold uh futures, when you look at um

[55:00] the uh regular expirations, it's a trip how just calm it is though. Um I'm looking at it here and there's just it's in tango. There's really not that much difference between them. Um it's pretty pretty small. you go for you have to go

[55:12] all the way out to to uh February the J contract um which is April contract but trading 4200 or higher. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Pretty narrow in between there. >> It's quiet unlike it was last fall.

[55:28] >> Okay. And I know we're supposed to talk about trading but um the chat did ask seen it? >> Oh, you saw it? Oh, yeah. Was it? Yeah. >> Thursday. I just remembered that. We're going Thursday. We're going to go to

[55:41] just a regular IMAX. >> Don't um I mean I couldn't sleep. It I mean it was it was so good at the end. One of my son's friends had a whoop on and it looked like she had run run after the movie because your heart rate goes

[55:55] >> I love it. I mean >> I have not seen it yet, but I'm I'm >> Yeah, we're we're going to go see it um I think in a regular IMAX. I know we were trying to make the 70 millimeter, but we talked about that on Friday.

[56:09] That is fantastic. And do you know that after they stop they're going to stop then after that they're just going to come like every so often like pop-ups >> Oo, smart, >> ain't it though? Little supply and

[56:24] Exactly. >> Yeah, I like it. I like it a lot. So, we open? What are you guys doing on the open? And do you are you playing any earnings trades today? >> Um, I might do Boeing. I think Boeing

[56:37] could be interesting. uh on the open, not really looking at anything. I have not really looking at anything. I have that super bear on and uh really just waiting to see if any of these markets move in my favor. But uh yeah, that's

[56:51] P&L day >> on the open and then see if anything moves me into a positive P&L open and then see if we we can make an adjustment or close it. But I'm always drawn to the largest P&L day on the positions I have

[57:04] and then just just do a quick analysis to see if there's anything I need to do. >> Oh, go ahead. Listen, >> you both don't really manage too much on >> Yeah, >> depends.

[57:17] >> I would say mostly it's observing on the open and then trading a little bit does. >> Um, I mean, there's not much to manage on the open. I mean, a lot of times like it just really unless it's an earnings.

[57:31] you're up like big money, you need to close it out. Um, we don't have any of interesting. >> Uh, over uh tonight after the close, morning, we got PayPal, Boeing, as Mike mentioned, Coke and UPS, and Corning.

[57:48] Uh, probably Boeing is the one I would play out of that because of what LMT did the other day on earnings. Uh, that was a huge move. Um, What did LMT do? Talk >> Bam. Right there. There you go. >> 70 point rally.

[58:02] earnings. The the first big move was earnings and then the one was the next day on a follow-through. So, I believe so. That's interesting. And Boeing has a similar chart right now. So, maybe it does a similar thing. Um,

[58:14] because if it's going to skyrocket, my trade is not going to work. morning. Um, yeah, it uh that one looks I'm not really playing. I mean, Corning's been moving like a AI trade,

[58:28] and from what I saw, from little stuff we've seen in the last two weeks here, quiet. I don't think they're going to have the same type of movement until until one of them proves me wrong. We'll see. Intel, you know, that that faded. I

[58:40] >> I don't think I'm playing these names to the upside. If anything, maybe I sell You could probably find some ways to sell V in some of these these tech names for earnings cuz I think they're going >> I feel like it's is it the '9s again?

[58:53] That was the hottest ticker on the trading floor back in the day. I heard >> And and now I mean and then it laid dormant for a couple years and now we're right back at it. >> Yeah. Yeah. Dorant for a lot of years.

[59:07] >> I You're being nice. >> And I thought it was cute that Oh, we're great that Mike had to type in Corning like GLWickers. too. I know. I know. >> What was this ticker symbol again? Um,

[59:24] yeah. I think another thing is like >> it's interesting because we've seen last week we were really weak in the E- Minis and NASDAQ. All these earnings like nobody really blew it out of the water except for Loheed Martin. And now the E-

[59:36] Minis and NASDAQ are up substantially up 1% pre-market. Like that's another because nothing has changed from these tech stocks and these earnings. It's really a reaction move on the crude oil move. So, if we do continue to see weak

[59:50] earnings, the images and NASDAQ are not going to trudge higher. >> The other reason too, Liz, you know why we kind of wait in the morning too? Um, I like to see what kind of day is it going to be? And by that I mean, are

[1:00:02] it's for like almost a month now, but it's every day. Are the chips going to staples going to be down or is it going to be vice versa? So, staples. Yeah, Microsoft is uh up 10 bucks.

[1:00:21] today, though. We said that pre-market with Chris and it's still kind of looking like that. I think there's going to be a change at some point, but >> yeah. >> I mean, there what I'm going to I

[1:00:33] where VIX is actually right now because So, So, VIX is only down 77 cents. I guess it's 4% but so VIX is down with the market up. VIX is only down this much with the

[1:00:47] get a reversal today. >> Yeah, you would expect VIX to be back in like 16 >> handleish. Yeah, you got airlines running of course because oil is down. So that's happening. Uh Micron is

[1:01:02] positive right now. Chips are positive but so is Lowe's. Lowe's is up $4. I have that in the book. I have the uh diagonal in there. Lowe's is up $4. What diagonal in there. Lowe's is up $4. What is that about? Is something going on?

[1:01:14] wait. Was that Home Depot? >> God, what's his name? Home Depot up 3% too. >> pretty correlated. >> Yep.

[1:01:26] tomorrow? So, it's tomorrow morning. Now, this is a very serious question. >> We're children of the >> Does he know who Josh Lucas is? >> Are you guys Coke or Pepsi people? >> Well, if I'm on a plane, I get a Coke

[1:01:38] too. Yeah. >> So, you if you have the choice, you go >> I do like, >> but I also lived in Atlanta, so I mean, question. >> Like, Atlanta's headquarters. I mean,

[1:01:51] that's all they fed you down there. >> Okay, fair enough. >> Do you know who Josh Lucas is? >> Uh, why don't I know the name, I think. wondering. Just doing a little, you know, little test. No, he's guy in the

[1:02:04] Home Depot ads. I was just curious to know. I feel like I know the namely >> You know he was um >> uh what's that movie? Sweet Home Alabama. Sweet Home Alabama. >> You ever seen that?

[1:02:16] >> See, that's that's the guy that's the guy that she that she uh >> Yes. >> And he's in the Home Depot commercials. >> But you know what's funny is when you when you say a name, I assume that I

[1:02:31] >> There he is. >> See, there he is. See, you know what I'm I know people from the trading floor because it was so packed tight down always assume I know him from the trading floor. Do you ever hear the

[1:02:44] we were walking through like Viagra Triangle, which we all know is those restaurants that are like right there in Rush. And some guy gives me like he went when I was very young. Goes like this to me and I was like so I just kind of went

[1:02:56] like, "Uh, do you know that guy?" I was like, "Yeah, yeah, I work with him." guy right there." I was like, "Yeah, I work with him clearly." like he must be acknowledged me and I acknowledged him because that was ice cube.

[1:03:13] >> So every man you think you know you don't even got it. >> Yes, I do. Including ice. >> So good. Just giving ice cube a little >> I totally did. I walked in like I own the joint. I was like, "Hey, good

[1:03:28] >> cuz I had the facial recognition but I didn't have anything else." Um, I was just filled on this Boeing call diagonal spread. Uh, I bought the call diagonal spread. Uh, I bought the 215 in September at a low 37% IV. Very

[1:03:41] potential here. Maybe these goes down. Maybe this goes down from 37 to like 33 or 32. But all these are kind of baseline right now. So, I think we'll be okay there. But then I sold the 4day, which is the pure IV exposure to the

[1:03:55] earnings announcement. Sold the 225 for a$150ish. But whole package got in for $9.68 and it's a 10-point wide diagonal spread with $200 almost in the short

[1:04:07] option. So if we do get a rally in Boeing from 212 to 220 or 225, this will be a three $400 winner, I would say. >> I like it. this out loud? Maybe people are making fun of me in the chat. I'm a little

[1:04:21] know Sweet Home Alabama and that this guy is in it. I really don't care. Don't >> I can't. I just got useless information in my head when it comes to movies. I don't even know why. I really don't. I really don't.

[1:04:34] >> Don't you dare. I love Sweet Home Alabama. Do you notice the person who's next of you has never seen Sweet Home Alabama? >> I'm sure I have. I've never seen Sweet Home Alabama to be honest with you. I've

[1:04:48] and there. I've never watched the whole thing like that. I'm telling you, I just can't help it. It looks familiar. So maybe, but you >> You never know these days. >> Um,

[1:05:02] >> NDX. So, we got these we've got these downside hedges. Uh, we've got the NDX butterfly short options at 28,000, which is only 400 points away. I like that. Uh, cuz that's just a reversal of today's move. And then S&P, we also have

[1:05:16] a 4day butterfly with the short options at 7,400, which again is just a reversal of today's move. So, I feel really good about the positioning of this portfolio leading into uh questionable earnings announcements after after last week's uh

[1:05:31] duds. >> Same. Absolutely. Uh feels pretty pretty today, which can only mean that software names are up. This is >> Yeah, >> cuz I do have some of those on. I still

[1:05:43] further out, but yeah, Microsoft is up today. Uh I assume Palanteer and and that's that's working out. >> Yeah. I think I need to close this >> Yeah. I think I need to close this calendar here. Um,

[1:05:57] >> Microsoft. >> Yeah, the 460450. It's just such such a short time frame. >> I know. I I got it. I think I have to do is a decent amount of August in my positions.

[1:06:10] earnings this week. So, I'm on. >> Uh, so you have an earnings setup have that calendar through earnings. >> I do. Yeah. short option for this week, long option 25 days out. So, this this was the setup to where like I can always

[1:06:24] just bail myself out potentially on an earnings move. Uh money, but that'd be great if Microsoft ripped up to 450 460. But I have this long-term calendar spread on that I put on a long time ago, 125 days. And uh I'm

[1:06:39] going to leave this on just in case we do get a nice big reversal here. Uh but my earnings trade for for Microsoft 450 >> Yeah, we did get a peak at software earnings in that uh we had CRM wasn't

[1:06:53] that last week. I mean it was it's been so busy but I think we had that right sometime in the last week or so and um that one faded. So if Microsoft doesn't do it, you can forget about Palunteer and anybody else doing it on earnings.

[1:07:08] >> Yeah. True. Mike, I've never seen such a long-term calendar ever in my life. What do you have in there? What is it? >> Well, we put that on. It >> This sell. >> So, wait, what's 120 days? April.

[1:07:21] >> Yeah, >> we do have that ability. >> Uh, speaking of uh this is also kind of roll week, right? For tra uh some of the This is pretty much roll week. We got um you know, we got a lot of things right

[1:07:36] know I got a decent amount of things to be rolling over the next few days here. >> and what does um what does Chris Beckio say about end of month on Friday because it's the 31st? >> We haven't brought up this question, but

[1:07:50] h the question is have we have we gone up this month? I think we have. >> I don't know. It could go either way. >> Ever since expiration, which you know, we we we've faded into expiration. Uh he hasn't really talked about about July

[1:08:04] Yeah, let's look at the >> July is supposed to be up and I know month I think I think end of quarter end of month is bigger than just end of EOM. So >> I mean I think SPY is up 1.5% for the

[1:08:18] >> So very slightly which makes sense. I mean we've uh we've we've moved back and >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Pretty flat. Pretty flat. >> But it is it is relatively flat, right?

[1:08:32] >> So, relatively flat and we're up 1% and the VIX is 17. All is right with the >> So, yeah, Microsoft I put on this long-term diagonal or sorry, long-term calendar spread when Microsoft was at 375 and we were trading this when it was

[1:08:46] 375 and we were trading this when it was at 350 360. So, we were just like, hey, I don't know when this is going to recover. This was at in the heat of the war situation um right before the reversal happened at

[1:08:58] the end of March. But we looked at Microsoft. It was at it was down 150 like, listen, at the end of the day, this is a bank 7 stock. I want to get long-term exposure here to the upside. So, I just went to the 500 strike, which

[1:09:12] is 50 points lower than the recent high at 550, and I bought this long SE or at 550, and I bought this long SE or sorry, long Jan short SE, and that was a $5 debit. It's up 300 bucks right now. So, we're just like the whole narrative

[1:09:25] The more these things get to multi-year lows, the longer term positioning I want to put on u just because the probability of a reversal over that period of time is significantly higher. I just don't know when it's going to happen.

[1:09:39] I I I don't disagree with that. I've just never seen someone use a calendar far out in time. How much did you pay for it? >> No. No. >> So, it was cheap. So, I was like, "Hey,

[1:09:53] if I'm wrong, it's it's whatever, but if I'm right, it'll be a multiple." trading, >> it's not going to jump a 100 bucks like that. I mean, it's just going to slow grind back. It's actually

[1:10:06] >> great idea to play it. >> And just have some exposure and keep it >> Yeah. >> But but I do like I do like seeing your differently. Now, I mean, we all trade similarly and different at the same

[1:10:20] time. I've just never seen that done before where I'm going to go out that to get a reversal. It's a $500 shot. like the first person really buying stuff. Like nobody was really buying

[1:10:33] stuff in that manner. Um but >> I'm still a seller. I I'm I'm an old >> I you know, that's the best thing about it. I I really was good at at uh buying and pay attention to inflection points. Sometimes to a to a fault. Sometimes I

[1:10:50] thing that Tasty helped me with is get smaller. Um I was still trading like I was trading a you know couple million dollar book and you just can't do that. And and then the other thing I think I learned how to do is or incorporate like

[1:11:04] selling strategies into my portfolio. That was something I never did trading on my own. I mean I didn't sell anything like everything I traded was bought. Um and so that's kind of been the nice thing. from all. It's interesting though

[1:11:17] portfolio, right? >> Yeah. you were trading a couple minutes out. You trade differently a bit smaller. >> Yeah. No, I you you should. But initially, I wasn't I was still

[1:11:31] couple months out. I want to buy, you know, 50 of these, 25 of these. These of these. A thousand. I mean, that's $5,000. I can I can I can make a $5,000 bet for three months out. Like, why not? And some people can, but honestly, like

[1:11:47] that's it's just it's just kind of big. I realized that that was too big for realized that. I had to come to that realization. >> We just filled on >> SanDisk. Um, another call butterfly.

[1:11:59] too expensive, but now this thing is tanking. So, >> yeah, I I think we could really see this market just fade >> uh right back down to flat. Yeah, I bought the uh 1 1600700 1,800

[1:12:13] call butterfly for this Friday. So, it's trading 1390 now. We'll see. >> 1600 >> 1,700 1,800

[1:12:25] >> Mhm. >> Boos are only up 50. >> Yeah, SPO's only up 50. We're selling off 49. I just saw it. 4975. 4925. Do we have 4875? Uh, there it is. 4875. >> 4875 49.

[1:12:40] Yeah, I could never do that, John. Uh, lots of training would have to go into that. But yeah, I it just feels like this is to the naked eye, this rally is last week, when you think about everything under the hood, like this

[1:12:55] these tech stocks that are going to report these numbers and and expose going to see a a little whiplash this week. and the Fed announcement that's still a 7030 which we haven't seen in a long time. Normally by by now two days

[1:13:10] before the announcement you've got a 99% probability on one side and 1% on the this is Yep. This is different. >> It's crazy. Um but Liz, appreciate you. We'll see you a little bit later today. >> Thanks guys. Happy trading. See you

[1:13:25] >> Uh yeah. Ein selling off here down to 46. Up 46. NASDAQ cut in half only up 160. Crazy moves in either direction, but uh we're posting these trades to the we'll do it during this break, but we'll see you on the other side of it. You're

[1:13:39] see you on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[1:17:36] the show. We got E- Mini sliding, only up 46 now. Uh they've sold off about 20 points from the open. NASDAQ's been cut in half in terms of the opening uh print of like up 300, only up 160 right now. Feels like a day where we could go red,

[1:17:51] but uh we've got E on the line live from the SIBO floor. And I hear some chatter. What's the noise level over there? >> Yeah. Uh, you know, I'm going to give it a 7.5, you know, which is pretty good considering how loud it was last week.

[1:18:04] some gentlemen running around a little bit here, too. So, there's a little bit the market selling off a little bit more now. But what I've actually been most excited about is the fact that Oracle has finally seen a little bit of an

[1:18:18] uptick. So, that's what's on my plate today. Uh, but good morning, guys. How are we doing today? >> Fantastic, my friend. Fantastic. Uh week or is this a trade you've had on for a while? I have had one for a while.

[1:18:32] >> This one is one I got on I think I got this one on last maybe Tuesday. Uh and and just kind of sustained that consistent downtrend we've been on. So it's only been about four, five, six days, but just those 5 days uh it felt

[1:18:46] testament to how Oracle's kind of been playing out. But again, nice to see a little bit of an uptake. It's been a difficult trade. It's a tough trade. Funniest thing ever. I I pulled up E's follow feed and it

[1:18:59] just the NASDAQ. >> I know. I know. It's amazing, right? >> I I I I got to update that. I'll get that updated today. So, we'll see some more fresh trades coming. >> That's what's up, man. That's what's up.

[1:19:11] >> You complain about Oracle is funny to me. Okay. I've had this thing on for >> I've been dealing with this name. >> It feels like it's been 3 months already. God, it feels like 3 months. >> I've had countless Super Bowls and

[1:19:26] whatnot and closing and opening. It's just um Yeah, I mean, Finally, it's getting some lift here. We'll see if it's meaningful. It it is in that space today. We were talking about Microsoft and Palunteer and and

[1:19:39] CRM and those names and there seems to be a little bit of lift there today, that's the only time it seems to work that way. So, uh I think SMH is down at down. So it's funny how that capital flows back and forth between these the

[1:19:53] sectors. >> Yeah. And it's not even it's just like it's just because that's how things are right now. It's like there's no rhyme or reason like the fact the amount of money that flows in and out of SanDisk and

[1:20:05] into Microsoft. It's just like the coin is flipping every single day. >> Nothing has changed in that regard. >> Um but yeah, E, what's what's your uh earnings report you have your eye on this week? You got a ton a ton to choose

[1:20:17] >> Uh you know what? I'm going to go with QCOM. I'm going to keep an eye on Wednesday. I need to double check on that. But, uh, I Qualcomm wasn't one of the tickers that were in like my basket of tickers that I typically trade. Uh,

[1:20:31] but I like the volatility on it. So, I might set something up around there. >> Yeah. >> Um, so yeah, Qualcomm. I mean, I've seen going to be like Apple, right? We got some bigger names on the board there,

[1:20:45] >> uh probably just going to be sideline for most of them. But what are you guys Qualcomm? >> Um I think >> Microsoft like all the Mag 7s. I want to see what happens there. Microsoft

[1:21:00] specifically because we have a bunch of positions on there. Apple, Amazon, absolutely. I think we'll be able to get uh some information from like Visa and Mastercard in consumer credit. I think we'll be able to see what kind of flows

[1:21:15] are going into products like uh Coca-Cola, UPS, PNG, like those kind of those that sort of sector too. So I I think we have a nice sector diverse week one of the biggest weeks for earnings with a handful of MAG7s, Microsoft Meta,

[1:21:31] Robin Hood, Qualcomm after the close on Wednesday, Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Uh you just have so much. And now with crude oil, you've also got Exxon, Chevron, >> where's BP? Somewhere somewhere in

[1:21:45] there. It's got to be. >> Uh, so I think this is going to be BP's August 4th, but those two will definitely have some moves based on what have everything happening. And then, by the way, a Fed announcement on Wednesday

[1:21:58] with a 30% probability of a hike. >> Yeah, >> about it. >> That's the cherry on top. Yeah, No, but I mean coming into a week like this, it's going to be nice to just

[1:22:10] going to get too aggressive, especially directionally because of the earnings and then especially because of the the Fed announcement on Wednesday. So, it's trigger, but I'm going to be a little bit more thoughtful about the sizing and

[1:22:24] how directional I'm getting, at least at the beginning of this week. So, I think it'll be a fun one, though. >> Yeah, I think that's smart. E, I mean, playing out. You know, we had somebody asking us this morning, why don't we uh

[1:22:36] when we you look at super bulls and super bears, why do we do zero DTE type of week where you could probably go a couple of days out if you want. Um actively cuz we trade actively. But for some people, you could probably go to

[1:22:49] bullish on the week, but you're worried about how the week may play out. You could go out to next this coming Friday. It's the end of the month as well, end Monday if you want it, August 3rd. Like, however you want to play it. That's the

[1:23:01] great thing about these trades. But I think this is that kind of week where God just about every day there's probably a catalyst honestly and the next day honestly not even so much that day but the next whatever the next day

[1:23:13] may be for any of these trades. >> Yeah. And I think this this selloff that we're seeing uh is something we were talking about right in the open. Like I was shocked to see us up still 60 points uh from yesterday's open uh overnight

[1:23:29] open. And really, I think the fact that crude oil is down big and the market's up does it really doesn't change these these tech stocks uh and the earnings that they must report and the capex that they're going to expose. And I think

[1:23:41] it's going to be a really choppy week. >> Yeah, I I'm I'm hoping that boat as >> I'm just getting filled here on on uh these calendars in Boeing.

[1:23:53] >> I don't love doing it with the stock up 2% already, but whatever. I did the 225, >> 11 day, 4 day. >> Uh, yes. Yes. 11 day, 4 day. Correct. >> Is that headed into earnings tomorrow from Boeing?

[1:24:08] morning. >> Yeah, I like it. Yeah, these So, you're basically collecting half the width uh half of the value in the long options with the sale of the short. So, buying the 225, 230, 235. The 225 you pay three

[1:24:24] three bucks for it, you collect two in the 4day. The 230 you pay two bucks for it, you collect a dollar in the 4day. And then the 235 you pay $120 and you collect 60 cents in the 4day. So lots of cost basis reduction. Any kind of rally

[1:24:37] is going to be good for that. >> Yeah, I did a total of uh $2.55 >> three calendars. >> Calendars >> like it. >> Yep. Um but yeah, e this NASDAQ uh

[1:24:51] snap up right on the open, but ever since then we've sold off 200 points uh and now we're sitting at the lows of the session. Where do we go from here? >> Um that's a good question. I mean, we have a pretty large gap from over the

[1:25:05] have a pretty large gap from over the weekend. Uh I mean, if we sustain this weakness, I think we could definitely see some last week lows potentially. I mean, as you've seen, we've kind of been trading within that range. Um it's

[1:25:17] of volume as we try or attempt to break out of that range, but it's really that we have FOMC this week. We have so many important earnings. So that can the way things are looking right now, the market looks really weak. I mean, we

[1:25:31] have a really large uh over the weekend gap. So, we'll keep an eye on that. But maybe a little bit more downside, but maybe nothing too crazy until some of those binary events uh come into play here. But it's going to be an exciting

[1:25:43] >> Is there a level that you watch? I mean I obviously I know there is cuz the way you scalp I know you definitely got a level in mind. >> I mean this 285 seems like something. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean if we keep

[1:25:56] selling off to the downside um like I had taken a little bit of short this morning but if we keep selling off to the downside a further target could be the downside a further target could be around 28,300 which is just around uh

[1:26:08] where the market closed last Friday. So the targets aren't too aggressive but considering how much we gapped up. But um it seems like that trend might remain for the time being at least. So we'll we will we'll keep an eye on it.

[1:26:22] >> Yeah. Market has erased all of its gains here. Uh sitting at the session lows. E- mini is only up 39. NASDAQ only up 100. I think we tick red here in the next couple minutes uh next couple of hours. I it just feels like one of those days

[1:26:38] where the euphoria on the open is is gone. Uh with crude oil still down this much. And I think people are realizing uh still got a lot of question marks that have not yet been answered. >> You know, I just know uh uh it was

[1:26:54] street. We should start calling him like Frank on the street. You know, like talking about. Billy on the street was hilarious, man. This dude would go on around and talk to people and ask him questions. But it was like he had his

[1:27:06] own style the way he did it. What do you think about traffic? And it's just like it was crazy. Um, anyway, he mentioned that we have a 2-year note coming up, two-year note auction at 10:30 a.m., I think our time. So, that's um again,

[1:27:19] two-year notes are are uh related to the Fed's uh Fed's rate. So, we'll see if that that means anything, if that does anything. Um, a couple of other ones, too, but the 5-year note is kind of 5-year note auction is also notable at

[1:27:32] 5-year note auction is also notable at noon. So, see if those mean anything. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah, NASDAQ only up 90 now 80s. Uh we are selling off pretty hard here. E- mini up 30. We've erased tons of that

[1:27:46] gain on the intraday. Uh >> SpaceX alltime low 11060 11021. >> Wow. This thing is just sliding craziness. >> IGV up 3 and a half% today. Software.

[1:27:59] >> Yeah. Look at this reversal. >> That was Oracle's up on the day. That's all we need. And we're we're good to go. >> Look at this selloff. Wow. aggressive here. >> I think we're going I think we're going

[1:28:12] flat. I think if we go flat, I'm just going to close that super bear. Uh because I have those other butterflies that could really work well into the uh continued selloff. But yeah, crazy to see here. We've had uh almost a 300

[1:28:26] had a 300 point reversal here from >> Yeah. Uh cuz if we bounce from there, you could just re-enter also. 100%. >> 286 to 2835. Insane move to the downside here. We're

[1:28:41] it's going to last for long. >> Does not. >> E, appreciate you. We will see you a little bit later. Enjoy the rest of your >> Thanks, guys. We'll see you later. >> Yeah, got it.

[1:28:53] >> Uh, yeah, craziness here. E- Mini's only up 25. NASDAQ up 60. We are selling off aggressively. This is a one minute chart we're looking at on the show uh here. we're looking at on the show uh here. And yeah, it's just been red, red, red.

[1:29:07] I don't know what else to say about uh this market, but I we do have another guest on, Mr. Dr. Jim. Maybe you've got something to say about this market. How what. I mean, markets move and things change, right? Markets move and things

[1:29:21] change. And I'll tell you what, it's almost like nobody knows, man. Like, it's almost like it's all random and unpredictable. You know what I'm saying? because we said this thing's going to reverse and

[1:29:34] >> Well, of course. Of course we know. But I'm talking about the common peasants know. But we know, of course. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You know, and you're >> I mean, I'm about to show them. I'm going to show them a trade that's going

[1:29:47] to work with about a 30% confidence interval. So, stick around for that. I'm coming. But speaking of markets moving, things changing, Mike, I mean, we're in it together now, man. How about our Red Sox 15 in a row? They almost did it,

[1:30:00] man. Almost had the longest win streak in franchise history, but it got snapped >> Listen, it's the year of the Socks. The White Socks just destroyed Houston yesterday. Up 123. Like, it's just nuts. The It's the year of the socks.

[1:30:12] >> Year of the Socks. >> Uh, but yeah, I like the Red Sox. I love Boston. I always go to a game whenever I'm there. So, I'm rooting for you as >> I appreciate you, man. A Red Sox, White Socks. Let me think. That would be Yeah,

[1:30:25] >> That would be wild. >> It's It's in the cards. It is in the >> Um, Dr. Jim, we're going to let you take over in a couple of seconds here, but yeah, Ein's sliding here. Up 20, NASDAQ up 30. Doc, uh, Jeral and I are going to

[1:30:40] take a quick break. We're going to be back in about 25 minutes, but uh, yeah, haven't already. Feed us those trade ideas. There's going to be plenty of volatility uh, this week. But, Dr. Jim, have a great show.

[1:30:52] So, inside the trade, so the market is sliding, right? Mike and Jamal and E consider, a couple of ideas to kind of consider putting on your portfolio, what have you. We're going to go in, I don't know, maybe a slightly different

[1:31:06] direction. So, I was kind of thinking, you know, let's go ahead and what if we take the contrarian route? Like, what if we remember that at the core we are the core we kind of like to fade short-term market movements? And so I'm

[1:31:21] kind of thinking, what if we go into the Q's or MNQ kind of wherever the wind might blow us? What if we're a little bit bullish on a day like today? Now, I blood in the streets. I understand. I mean, it's almost, you know, 4% off of

[1:31:34] all-time highs, 5% off of alltime highs. They're actually maybe 10 or 11% off of indeed blood in the streets. But what if we fade that and play it to the upside? So, bring us into the market here. Uh there, Ben, just in case we aren't. You

[1:31:48] got EM S&P's up 28. You've got the risk-free instrument, also known as the NASDAQ futures, extremely high risk product, up 45 on the day. You got the Boomers up 475. And you've got the Russell 3000 up 31 uh on the day. So,

[1:32:04] what I think we're going to do, let's go ahead and and let me know in the YouTube morning, I totally forgot to bring the YouTube chat up. So, I can't see what you guys are doing, but let me know in the YouTube chat what you guys are doing

[1:32:18] after the show. So, let's say you want to play the market to the upside, but want to do it with defined risk or you want to do it with undefined risk. I could potentially do it with defined risk and then a way that you could

[1:32:32] potentially do it with undefined risk. So, let's go into Yeah, let's go into the cues right here. So, I've already got my Q's pulled up. What if got the Q's up a dollar today? If you look at the chart for today, you can see that

[1:32:48] they were all the way up to is that a daily chart? That is a daily chart. Wow. Look at that, man. Now, that is a candle. They opened them up around 691. They got to 692. They are now down to 684.

[1:33:02] do with short premium, I want to do it with high probability. I want to do it with all those things. What if I go ahead with a simple short put spread? ahead with a simple short put spread? So, let me go in here. If I sell a 680,

[1:33:19] 675 put spread. That might be a little bit low with my credit collected, but it where the wind blows us with strike selection here in just a couple of trade is a couple of things. Number one, the probability profit is not super

[1:33:33] high. It's only 53. I was kind of hoping it might be a little bit higher than that, but this is one of the things with put spreads specifically. Sometimes they're lower probability trades and sometimes you don't collect as much as

[1:33:45] you would on the call side. This is often times a product of the skew that we can take a look at all that here in the next uh the next couple of seconds. But the probability of profit is only just over 50%. The probability of making

[1:33:59] 50% over the life of the trade is in the 70s. So now we're 70 75 77 79. It's course, the delta is going to be slightly positive. My theta is actually

[1:34:11] going to be a little bit negative, which is sometimes surprising with something like a vertical spread. But remember with the vertical spread, what is the largest gimme that you are going after? What is the largest gimme that you are

[1:34:24] getting? It's going to be the defined risk, right? It's going to be that safety net in place on the trade. And so you give up a lot in exchange for having having that safety net in place, which of course is incredibly advantageous,

[1:34:39] to the Greeks. Like I'm giving up being super bullish. I'm giving up getting a lot of positive theta decay working for me. Those are the the biggest gotchas that you have to absorb, you know, with that gimme without question. So having

[1:34:53] theta be, you know, somewhere around neutral. Having theta be slightly positive to slightly negative on entry for a vertical spread is not that surprising when it comes to especially a short put spread where you're in the

[1:35:06] indexes. You typically get paid on the call side with your spreads, not as much on the put side with your spreads. And so having something that's slightly slightly negative uh makes sense. But remember,

[1:35:18] like if I just scroll down a little bit on the screen. In fact, hold on a second. Hold on. Hold on. We can actually do, guys. We're going to do it. We can pull up the curve view. We can do it. I mean, they can't stop us, can

[1:35:33] they? I don't think so. So, if you look at the curve view, ah, it's beautiful. beautiful. So, if you look at the curve view, this is a little bit foreign to you've watched my show for any more than I don't know, maybe two two and a half

[1:35:47] view guy. It's just the way that I learned and you can't teach an old dog new tricks and all the stuff everybody already knows. But if we look at the cues at 684, so I got my cues at 684. I got my

[1:36:00] strikes at 680 and 675. So right now, negative, which again, that could be a head scratcher, right? That can be like, still out of the money. Why isn't time working for me? Blah blah blah blah

[1:36:12] blah. And right now in this very moment it is not. But that is going to flip. So that is going to change. It's not static. It is very very dynamic. So remember that as long as the cues stay above 680, you are going to see that

[1:36:26] theta turn positive. You're going to see a moment in the life of the position when the theta on this trade has to be positive. And the reason why this has to happen is if the options remain out of the money, then they have no choice.

[1:36:41] Excuse me. they have no choice but to finally get to a spot where the exttrinsic value is gone, right? Because remember at expiration all the exttrinsic value goes away from the options. Now sometimes not maybe every

[1:36:55] single time and so keeping that in mind it's like okay right now the stock is it's like okay right now the stock is 685 and my strikes are 680 and 675. Right now the theta is slightly negative but theta is dynamic just like

[1:37:08] like delta just like gamma just like buying power just like stock price of course implied volatility they're all moving around and so right now it might be slightly negative but I don't know when exactly it's going to happen but

[1:37:21] maybe tomorrow maybe the next day maybe later on this week you will see that theta turn positive especially if the cues do rally if the cues do rally from this point then you'll be in a situation where the theta will turn positive more

[1:37:34] quickly because now time will be working a lot harder on your behalf because the options are further and further out of the money. And so right now because the stock is down a little bit closer to where the actual strikes are, it's not

[1:37:48] going to be as let's call it clear-cut that the theta is going to flip positive quickly. But if we get a little bit of a bounce in then that could uh that could absolutely happen. So I'm actually I'm gonna do

[1:38:02] They're both going to be in the cues. And so, not exactly a diversification. Not exactly a hedging mechanism, if you will. But what could possibly go wrong? So, if I do, cuz now I'm very curious. I want to be able to follow this guy and

[1:38:18] reason to watch inside the trade and even to practice later today at 2:30 cuz your boy needs that watch time. But if I go ahead and sell this guy for it's strikes, I would usually collect a little bit more. But man, we've done so

[1:38:32] much work on this trade. I mean, we've invested at least three, maybe four and a half minutes of our lives that's never coming back. Let's go ahead and just push this guy out there for Yeah. dollar. Let's do a$183. Let's see if

[1:38:45] they get us they give it to us. And then I want to do a second trade in the cues, risk for all my shooter mcgavins that might be watching the show uh this might be watching the show uh this morning. So, uh can't get a$183. Let's

[1:39:00] Okay, dollar 81. There you go. Okay, so we're in a Q's spread. Okay, so now what I want to do, I already have one MNQ position and this guy is slightly in the money. And so now if I go to a second MNQ position,

[1:39:13] you have a clean book, maybe you have no NASDAQ exposure, maybe you're looking what have you, you know, this could be something that would fit that bill. So from an MNQ standpoint, you know, the nice thing about MNQ is it is a futures

[1:39:28] options product. futures options oftentimes have much better buying power than the equity options. And so this is one of the most favorable aspects of futures options, the buying power of savings that you're able to grab on the

[1:39:42] uh on these products. So if I go into MNQ, I'm already in this 25day cycle. So least layer in at least a wee little bit of diversification at least across the

[1:39:55] calendar. We've already got the QQQ spread now in the 50-day cycle or whatever. We've got MNQ that's 25 days away. Let's go all the way out to September. So, this guy is also going to be 52 days uh in duration. And the nice

[1:40:10] thing about MNQ, which is what I really wanted to show you guys, is the buying wanted to show you guys, is the buying power savings. So, you might have, you account. Let's say you've got a $50,000

[1:40:22] do something undefined risk in the indexes, but you know, I'm not really comfortable doing something naked in the QQ's. You shouldn't be. I'm not really shouldn't be because they're huge products and they can, you know, they

[1:40:36] really quickly and not even Jeremy Rener can save you at that point. And so I think with MNQ and MEES, these are products that we can use that can allow us to save the buying power and get even smaller on position size because

[1:40:51] generally speaking, MNQ is going to be about 80 to 85 beta weighted delta about 80 to 85 beta weighted delta whereas a QQQ is maybe 105 beta weighted slightly higher beta than the overall

[1:41:04] market. So, it allows us to shrink our size down at least a little bit while also saving a tremendous amount of buying power. So, if I go into the 52-day cycle, let's just say I did, you know, let's say I did like a 35 delta

[1:41:17] put. So, if I go in, man, look at these markets, though. What is up with MNQ, know, the tail of the tape for quite running these markets? Is Vinnie Batista still running these markets?

[1:41:33] Man, look at this 35 delta. Man, maybe we'll get a decent fill in here. But for concern without question because this is a SanDisk, right? We're not trading micron this morning. These are the MNQ micro NASDAQ futures. You know,

[1:41:50] I'm excited. Uh if we could veer off the a little morning tangent for you guys. futures just like everybody else. I don't remember when they're when they're see. I don't have it up right now, which is my failing. I didn't get it set up

[1:42:04] teams problems and I was trying to communicate with Ben and there's all kinds of problems. But anyway, the single stock futures I think are going to be amazing because why would I only buy Nvidia? Why would I only sell puts

[1:42:18] buy Nvidia? Why would I only sell puts in Nvidia when I can also add on top of that a long futures position in Nvidia? So now I'm long stock, I'm short puts, I'm long futures. What could possibly go wrong? I I a lot of things, just to be

[1:42:33] clear, I uh I think that the single stock futures could have really really bad markets. And so I'm a little bit kind of hesitant to get overly excited. my shoes. Like it's not like we just won 15 in a row. Like it's not like we just

[1:42:49] took two out of three from Toronto. Like it's not like we just got some no-name second baseman from the Washington Nationals. RIP to Connelly Early from the Boston Red Sox. It's not like any of those things. It's more like I'm just

[1:43:01] kind of wait and see. Let's kind of see how this guy goes and what have you. But anyway, when I look at the MNQ pits and I see these markets being so wide, it makes me think about, you know, the 24-hour trading, you know, the single

[1:43:15] stock futures, blah blah blah blah blah. It all sounds amazing in theory. Like it all sounds incredible on paper. But again, when you try to go from theory to

[1:43:27] practice, things change, right? Things are different. So, if you guys happen to that journey, let me know, man, because I need it just as much as you guys do. So, if I go in here, though, if I if I

[1:43:41] do like a 35 delta uh short, it looks like my mid price is uh short, it looks like my mid price is 723. uh maybe we'll get filled at 723. That doesn't look uh too bad. Oh,

[1:43:58] delete that cuz I want to make sure you because that's what I really wanted to focus on. So, if you look at my buying power here, it's only 2,600 bucks. Again, if I did a naked put in the cues,

[1:44:11] here in a second just so you guys can see. If I did a naked put in the Q's, I think it might be like 10 or 11,000. Maybe 12,000. And so just significantly significantly more. So if I do, let's do like 713.

[1:44:31] right. So they're they're running a kind of of a they're running a hard running a hard bargain. No, driving a hard bargain. If you're working on hard bargains, you're moving faster than just on your feet there. So if I do, let's do

[1:44:44] a 710. Let's run for this hard bargain. Uh oh, we got filled the 710. So, that up a couple of points off the mid price there because the man got has got to get that wasn't too bad. So, let's look at a

[1:44:58] I want to show you guys just for completeness purposes. Uh from my in me really wants to kind of tie this thing off and wrap it up with a bow. If I go to the cues and if I went to September and I wanted to sell a 35

[1:45:13] delta put, I haven't looked at this before. I'm going to say be 13,000 in buying power. That's my guess. 35 delta put buying power 11,2. So

[1:45:28] enough for government work. So it is good enough for us. And so yeah, I mean 11,000 12,000 whatever that's significantly more, right? So, 2,600 mean, we're working with 35,000 here. It's like, yeah, that's 7% of the

[1:45:41] fine. I mean, from a position sizing standpoint, I think that's absolutely okay. Uh, again, you have to make your own decision, of course. Uh, but if you're in a 30, 40, $50,000 account, you can't do this trade. Like $11,000, I

[1:45:54] buying power. There's way too much in terms of size. It's just not going to sense. And so, that is why I like the futures options. And so, a couple of ideas, a couple of uh options, pun intended, for you guys here this

[1:46:08] morning. QQQ short put spread and MNQ naked short put. We went inside the trade not once but twice this morning and we double dipped George Castanza this afternoon, 2:30 Eastern, 4 from the practice.

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[1:47:42] in one place. Crypto. We got it. We get it. Greek to you. Well, guess what? Millions of people speak Greek, so you've got no excuse. Here's your alphabet. Theta is

[1:47:56] time decay. Time itself has value in the options world, and that value slips away the closer you get to expiration. Theta is how fast that happens. Tick tock, is how fast that happens. Tick tock, time value drops. Delta is difference.

[1:48:10] underlying affect the price of the option? because their value moves with the stock. And short options have a negative delta because their value moves opposite the stock. Gamma is get up and go. It's

[1:48:25] how fast delta changes. Gamma increases when the options start trading much more like the stock. Like the closer to the at the money and the last few days till expiration. Vega is not a Greek letter, but it does start with a V and so does

[1:48:39] volatility. Vega measures how much the options price is affected by the changes in volatility. Now you know your alpha beta gamas. Now you know your alpha beta gamas. Well, gamma anyway. Pretty simple.

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[1:50:02] got E- Minis sliding only up 15. NASDAQ is big red now down 60. Uh the prophecy has been fulfilled. The sell-off is happening. Uh I think it's it's a wild

[1:50:14] day so far. We got a wild week. But we got Tim Knight on the line. >> I know. I hear him in the background. >> Euphoria >> these big. But Tim, how you doing?

[1:50:27] >> No. Look, this is a two-way street because let's explain. All right. For years and years and years, I've had a solo show. I haven't had to interact with anybody. So, I can just just monologue my way, you know, as much as I

[1:50:40] like. And now I'm facing the prospect every morning of possibly uh feeling shame and regret and having to explain myself. And that's tough. And

[1:50:52] uh but it is it is maybe character building. And so uh you know last night of course we tacoed again um and you know war is off for the next day or two. Mhm. And everything was blasting higher. I was like, "Oh, here we go." Um, and

[1:51:10] uh, but I I I happened to flick on a band of brothers and I watched the Normandy getting shot of the sky and I'm like, Tim, strap on a pair. It's just numbers, you know,

[1:51:23] >> Don't stress. Don't don't don't worry about this. And you know, you know the cold fact of the matter is every single time that I've gotten scared over the past few weeks and chickened out of anything, 100% of the time I've

[1:51:36] regretted it cuz the charts have been right every single time and I've second guessed myself and I've lightened up or I've covered etc etc. I've been wrong every single time. So I'm just trying to trust the charts and u because God is

[1:51:51] municent. We have seen this absurd taco rally get blasted away already. And uh yeah, it is a it is a glorious sea of red right now. So, I'm feeling better.

[1:52:03] No shame this morning. >> First of all, great call out on Bander was like a mini. >> It's amazing I took this long to watch it. It is ridiculous. I don't know when it was produced, but it's like this is

[1:52:15] heard about it, you know, a gazillion times like this is the greatest thing It's like gez. But yeah, finally getting into it. all, I love I mean, we love hearing your perspective on here because we tend to

[1:52:28] lean pretty bullish. I mean, but we also have find other ways to offset that, but it's always good to to hear you and and case in point, this chart you got up from the beginning. Tell us about that one.

[1:52:40] >> Well, um, this is uh crude oil. And this is an interesting thing. And the the thing with charts is that you you must not get hung up. U the the proverbial U mustn't get hung up on uh like if it crosses like one pixel it's all over

[1:52:55] etc. These things they're not they're not iron rods they're rubber bands and so like the trend line on the on crude oil here we see that on Thursday it pushed above it but what was interesting is instead of following through on that

[1:53:09] on Friday uh it it got repelled kind of got dragged back down. So you if you think of this as like you know a sheet of rubber instead of steel, we got pushed back on Friday and sure enough ping, you know, down we go um today. But

[1:53:25] but but I like to think of this as like it's a little bit of a tell. I believe the fact that oil had enough strength to pierce it in the first place, repelled or not, indicates that not to anthropomorphize the the instrument too

[1:53:40] know, it did push above that. It's trying to go higher. I would not be at all surprised in say a month from now, even two weeks for this to be a meaningful maybe in the triple digits, you know. So, it it's it's it's a failed

[1:53:55] breakout, but it's still and it's not clear enough for me to trade. I'm I'm still not touching energy because, you know, obviously this is loaded with uncertainties with the Iran situation, but if pressed, I would say this is more

[1:54:08] weeks. I touched it because when it hit 93 and hold, I was like, "You know what? That might be it. All we need is some news." >> yeah. And and week weekends are prime time for news. Uh speaking of news, um

[1:54:26] uh I wanted to just touch on our our poor belleaguered friend SpaceX. Um this poor thing. Goodness gracious. And it's funny, too, cuz you guys lean bullish. I obviously lean very bearish. And I've never shorted this thing. um even though

[1:54:40] it does nothing but go down. But the funny thing is that they're just dying for some good news. And on Friday evening and I'm a I was born in the '60s so I'm like got NASA and space ships like fused into my head. So anything to

[1:54:53] do with rockets I'm interested in. So I watched the launch um on Friday night and it was a great success and I figured, oh the the the poor fellas are probably have a little rally to celebrate on Monday. Nope. More lifetime

[1:55:06] lows. So this thing can't cut a break. I mean, talk about a trend that is just be in double digits for long if this keeps up. This is it's just sad. >> Remind us of those dates again cuz like uh Chris Veio said this recently, nobody

[1:55:21] but due to August, right? >> That's kind of what we're seeing, right? >> Yeah. So the key dates are next Tuesday the 4th after the close, they get the 4th after the close, they get earnings. And uh August August 11 is

[1:55:34] when I thought the first lockup was. Um, our family's financial advisor said the the reason where there was a discussion is like, do you want to sell any of this stuff? It's like, no, this poor thing, none of these levels. So, um, but, um, I

[1:55:49] think it's the 11th. And the the the funny thing about that day is that, um, funny thing about that day is that, um, you know, it's 20% will be unlocked. And had the stock been above I think 170, it would have been a 30% unlock. They're

[1:56:04] because when in the first few days when it did blast higher it's like wow 30% it did blast higher it's like wow 30% will come come free on um August 11 that's not the case and but this could be you know this could be one of those

[1:56:19] uh weird situations in which it's kind of like the old the converse of sell the news because everyone knows that unlock's pressure I think just this fear of like holy god everyone's going to just cash

[1:56:34] out. It could be odd. It I would not be at all surprised to see that lock up of the blue. >> Um just cuz that's, you know, markets. make God laugh, tell them your plans. It's kind of like that with the stock

[1:56:50] to see the unlock date come and it actually goes up just to mess with >> Yeah, I think we we could easily see something like that. We've seen crazier things before. Um, but yeah, in the short term it's creating a lot of uh

[1:57:06] short term it's creating a lot of uh anti-buzz for long-term bulls, but >> Well, I've got I've actually I got a perfect chart to kind of and I did a when's it going to stop? When's it going to stop? You know, I don't think it's

[1:57:20] going to go to $5. I don't even think it's going to go to 50. But I think in terms of perspective and I I when I did that video about SpaceX way before the IPO, the only analog I could come up with is Meta because it's like

[1:57:35] charismatic founder. Everyone's talking about it. Everyone's excited about it. It's a big part of the social culture. What did Meta do? They bombed. They came What did Meta do? They bombed. They came out at 45. They went to 17. And it took

[1:57:48] about 17 months for those who bought at the IPO to even go get uh get flat, get to get even on their bet. And so Meta sucked. It lost about 2/3 of its value

[1:58:00] in the first few months. It's like, well, wow. Zuck's really a genius, huh? Well, you know what? Long term, it it went up 4,200% after that. So, this is what I thought would happen with SpaceX, you know, cuz like you don't get this

[1:58:13] kind of hype. you're not going to go to one from 135 to 500. And so we're we're seeing that. I mean, it's it's it's it's sucking winds just like Meta did. The question is when does it finally bottom out? And I imagine as with Meta,

[1:58:27] quarters from now where they come out with earnings, it's like, wow. And then you you gap higher and then kind of there's no looking back. But I certainly think it's going to keep going lower for a while and probably won't bottom for

[1:58:41] many many months. Yeah, you know, you're right. It it does have that similar your thoughts on today's move. I mean, this is quite the reversal. >> Oh, on Oh, sure. Glad to. Um, let me shall I just hop to the ENQ because

[1:58:54] days. >> Um, this is uh really interesting stuff. >> See, I didn't even see this happen yet. All right, let's let's review.

[1:59:06] >> So, for a while there, we uh we were trapped in these ranges. uh particularly this range and the big shift happened on this day. We finally cut below and again going back to my point about like it's

[1:59:19] there's some there's some violations here and there but on the whole you know 90% of the trading activity was between this kind of orange and blue level here. It finally pierced it uh here and since then we've been banging between these

[1:59:34] two levels. Now what happened on Friday and I talked about this in my afternoon show was we were right at the cusp of failing support and I'd said facitiously well no semi-facitiously that you know this might be a great time to just run

[1:59:49] because we're at support right now and for the first half hour that was absolutely true because it wasn't an hour ago this was a big old green bar we uh we went roaring higher on this and you can see we were higher higher today

[2:00:04] than we were on any time on Friday. But what's happening right this second is we what's happening right this second is we have broken support for the first time. So we're trading the same levels now that we were trading early in May. So

[2:00:17] this failure coupled with, if I switch charts for a sec here, coupled with SMH, I think can lead to a really potent uh potential because I'm doing some crazy things. I mean, I bought I you

[2:00:32] smack me across the face with this one. I bought STX puts last week. Is that volatility, all that, you know, it's like, but it's doing great. I probably tomorrow. >> But, um, there's some really serious

[2:00:48] breakdowns going on now. Look at WDC. Look at um, SNDK on and on. All these like exceptional stocks that did nothing but go up until about a month or so ago, they're getting, you know, bombed right now. So, yes, we failed the ENQ and we

[2:01:04] now. So, yes, we failed the ENQ and we are about to fail uh SMH. I don't know if you you gentlemen saw it, but there's a there's a story this morning that, you financing and the latest one is Nvidia is saying they'll backs stop a quarter

[2:01:18] is saying they'll backs stop a quarter trillion t a quart trillion dollars for OpenAI to build out their data center. So, the house of cards is like in the ionosphere right now. It's really the one wrong stumble and wow it this is a

[2:01:33] really big deal what we're seeing. >> Yeah, SMH is sitting uh at the lows of the last couple of weeks here pretty close to it at 540ish. Um and yeah, the close to it at 540ish. Um and yeah, the NASDAQ and E- Minis just ticked red. We

[2:01:47] uh you know crude oil being down and the E- minis and NASDAQ ripping higher tech stocks are going to give us their capbacks this week. Uh, and I think that that could move the needle and it seems the market is well aware of that, right?

[2:02:01] >> Well, green as the morning was and I was scared to pieces. It's been worse, but I had 43 positions. I got stopped out of two two and it was like, all right, that's not too terrible, but it was all green and now it's almost all red. So,

[2:02:14] what happened in the past hour. You know, there may not even be any news driving it, but we've seen a You don't see shifts like this hardly ever this quick. >> Yeah. What a wild day. Uh Tim, love your

[2:02:28] >> Okay. See you guys. >> See you. >> Yeah, E- Mini is down five now. NASDAQ down 200. Uh Jamal and I were both filled, I believe, on the S&P trade. So, I closed out of mine for a $500 winner.

[2:02:41] You were likely a very similar price point. Uh so, we will post those to the follow page. But, yeah. Wow. What a reversal in the first hour of trading >> Yeah. Yeah. Um I mean, we could kind of feel it this morning. And this is a, you

[2:02:55] know, I mean, it's clear too, uh, by the way, that the the Russell and the the is potential interest rate situation. It's usually what we see when you see that bifurcation with NASDAQ and S&Ps down or or up and Russell and and the

[2:03:09] Dow doing the opposite. But, um, one thing is clear, people are de-risking a little bit ahead of what's going to be a huge week of earnings and of macro case. >> Yeah, absolutely nuts. Uh, but this is

[2:03:22] join us on the YouTube channel if you haven't already. We're going to take a the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.

[2:03:43] and it's not the bull. If that's you, join us on Tasty Trade. Genius loves company. Tasty Trades active trader interface makes futures

[2:03:56] markets your arena. Built for the bold, not the bored. Trade CME futures with a single click from micro contracts to major ideas. And go even further with futures options. Tasty Trade lays out multiple ladders and charts for total

[2:04:11] visibility. Plus, hundreds of built-in indicators for traders who want a broader view. Tasty Trade Prolevel tools. Intuitive design. Total control. >> All right, so I've got some good news

[2:04:25] and I've got some bad news. Let's get that bad news out of the way first. You are going to have some losing trades. Like every trade you place, despite your extreme optimism that it's going to work out, it's not going to work out. That's

[2:04:38] the bad news. The good news, the good news is at Tasty Trade, man, we are ready to adjust and defend and roll our positions if that's what it takes. And that's what this entire crash course is all about. A five episode crash course

[2:04:54] all about rolling. So, I will see you inside of episode number one.

[2:05:21] show. We got a market measure sponsored by our friends at SIBO. We got Julia on morning. Have you been trading this craziness yet or are you holding holding

[2:05:33] >> Kind of holding tight. And this is now the second time this has happened where I had uh kind of like a longerdated position on in one of the market indices. This time is the NASDAQ is is betraying my trust, but it hit like 30%

[2:05:46] profit in the first like 3 days of holding it. And I'm like, I I could get completely reversed. And now I get to hold on for it even longer, which is great. The fun of trading long-term positions in this market. So that and

[2:05:59] then uh ion Q which I've been holding on for a while now is some quantum stocks are having a little pop today. I don't know if you're looking at those at all. >> We haven't yet. Um but yeah, seeing a nice little little pop here. Uh it sold

[2:06:13] off from the recent high about two points higher. But yeah, we're seeing some craziness. I mean E- Minis and NASDAQ down Dow and the Russell up Bitcoin up. Uh crude oil down 6%. It's it's a really interesting day here.

[2:06:27] it's a really interesting day here. Natty Gas down 3%. >> I say um either you either love Natty Gas or you don't. And it's kind of like tequila in college. It kind of depends on how it went in college.

[2:06:40] >> The only person that I know that actually loves Natty Gas is Liz. Other >> and I haven't been burned yet, but like I don't know. I've had some good experiences with Natty Gas. Um but I I don't trade it a ton, which is probably

[2:06:53] why I got some confirmation buys there. I might have in the next 24 hours here. >> I mean, yeah, you're right at 28. Exactly at 28, which is where your short >> that could be nice. >> Could be.

[2:07:05] you got for us today? >> Today, we're talking about zeres. We're going to be talking about how delta changes risk. Um, and at like the zero DTE scale just because, um, you know, at zero positions, like

[2:07:19] position sizes are a lot smaller. So changing that delta has a, you know, a bigger impact on risk um and reward as well. So and just volatility overall. So Kai did this piece uh options Kai over on X if you want to give him a follow.

[2:07:32] We're posting um long form content more more actively too on the research team. to be talking about today. >> Awesome. Affectionately known as the >> The general Kai. True. >> Correct. Um but uh that short delta

[2:07:48] whatever you set up you know and a short premium trade that short delta has a very large impact on your overall risk profile um probability of profit um as well as like the overall volatility of the position um changes a lot with that

[2:08:01] short delta. So um that really is where a lot of that strategic flexibility with wing width. That's where a lot of position sizing comes in. you know, you know, it doesn't ma, you know, change a ton when you're changing that

[2:08:14] long delta comes in. But where that short delta comes in is really your position volatility and in a lot of um in in a lot of respect your pop. So, um just in this comparison, we're looking at like five delta versus 50 delta. That

[2:08:27] win rate changes so much when we're going very tight versus very wide. And quite a bit. So, uh, here we're going to be looking at like a wide spectrum of short deltas, um, when it comes to zero DTE strategies. And we're going to say

[2:08:40] are what are the benefits of going to kind of either extreme versus maybe uh, when it comes to shoot choosing a short delta. And here we're going to be positions that we're testing. And we're holding to expiration uh, looking at

[2:08:53] S&P. >> Sweet. Check it out. >> Cool. Let's do it. Okay. So um the first one uh so higher delta trades collect more credit and they use less buying power. Um so your return on capital

[2:09:06] looks um very attractive right just like you know on its face. Uh noting that when you're choosing that higher delta is probability of profit and you're taking on more volatility typically when you do that. Um but uh the maximum

[2:09:21] much larger just because you're collecting so much more credit relative putting up for the trade. Um, so especially from kind of more speculative trading where pop is maybe not as much of a concern. Um, that tighter delta

[2:09:34] shows like a pretty remarkable return on capital just looking, you know, at face >> Yeah, absolutely. And there's I think there's going to be some lessons to be learned here in the appeal of higher delta. U, but there is a rule of thumb

[2:09:49] that I think we'll reveal at the end. >> Yeah, I think that's the I think you got pretty close to the punch line on that one. Um but then likewise when we're looking at like the super wide delta like you know we saw that 92% you know

[2:10:01] win rate in that first slide just in that little teaser uh for the five delta that you're putting up between a five delta and a 30 delta doesn't really change that much but the credit that you're collecting really drags down that

[2:10:14] at kind of either extreme on the scale really changing. Noting that like that's not always the best metric to use. use when it comes to short premium positions. Um, but it's pretty

[2:10:27] delta and then that even like 2030 delta, it's pretty comparable amount of between those trades even though you're collecting significantly less capital in the five delta case. >> Yeah, I think the the riskreward and

[2:10:43] very strong. >> Yeah. >> Yeah, that's a biggie. So, um, if we go over to the next side, uh, slide, um, like starting to break down return on capital. Um, because a lot of the time

[2:10:56] you can see, you know, the maximum profit of the position can be quite high. Um, and especially in that 50 delta, it can be over 100% of the buying power that you have to put in. But when you look at the average realized return

[2:11:09] on credit just from tail risk, just from not collecting the full amount for the majority of the trade, and this is where POP, you know, really drags that value there's actually the biggest gap the tighter that you go between the maximum

[2:11:22] that you can collect and the average of what you wind up collecting versus um is much less of a gap between like what maximum that you could potentially collect versus the realized value of

[2:11:35] what you wind up collecting and um the the middle ground of that 15 to 20 delta more reasonable specifically around like the 15 delta range but that 50 delta we're talking about that return on capital can be very deceiving on its

[2:11:50] volatility, when you account for pop, then what you actually realize long-term over time um gets reduced pretty significantly. >> Yeah. Because there there is no difference between a a 50 delta iron

[2:12:04] condor that's 20 points wide and a 20 point wide butterfly. It's basically the same thing. Uh, right. So, you have a a nice high return relative to risk, but to realize that reward, you have to pin this very narrow window. And that's why

[2:12:18] >> right? >> And totally expiration, you're always happen when you hold these trades at expiration. So, that's a definitely the one that caught my eye right away. >> Yeah, that's a very good point. um which

[2:12:32] early management strategies could like obviously skew these statistics. But kind of in isolation. So we're holding to expiration and then when you add can see strategies kind of start to deviate from yeah some of these face

[2:12:47] value um calculations. If we go to the next slide as well um it's really that variability is what you're giving up. So, um you're you're really just taking on kind of like more variance in general, more P&L variability. Um

[2:13:01] your returns over time with the more variance that you have when you go tighter generally. Um and you can see that really starting to pick up when you when you're getting to that 50 delta where um down by five delta you have the

[2:13:15] kind of as we talked about and we're going to continue to talk about, you're collecting a lot less in that situation, which is kind of like, you know, to that towards middle of the road when shooting choosing those short strikes, which is a

[2:13:28] balance of, you know, the tail risk that you're taking and um, you know, the profit that you're collecting, and probability of profit overall. >> Yeah, absolutely. And I think the that this is where you get to that lesson in

[2:13:44] this is where you get to that lesson in uh the 20 delta 15 to 30 delta is kind of where we live because we we want to make sure that we have that uh strong return relative to risk but still a high probability of actually realizing that

[2:13:58] >> right and that being said it's really down to trading style for something that's kind of more stable and you know for income generation versus something for hedging. like there's a time and a place for, you know, like all the

[2:14:11] options, right? There's a lot of options in the options. Um, but that being said, income generation short premium strategy, it's really like stability, as something that's, you know, subject to, you know, the leverage of options. Um,

[2:14:25] just trying to profit as consistently as possible. Um, which kind of, you know, is part of why, you know, a lot of our, I would say, mechanics kind of tend more towards middle of the road deltas. And then I think like the next slide talks

[2:14:39] about sort of like the real downside of going super super duper wide. So even and like I said there's a time and a place for that. Um the amount of credit that you're collecting when you go so wide is so it's like low such that um

[2:14:55] one max loss basically offsets 23 winners um which I thought was like a really nice way to kind of put that. So, um, even though, you know, that high win rate looks pretty attractive on its face, um, th those tail risks, as

[2:15:07] more moderate losses, which are a little bit more likely, can be enough to really just kind of like squish gains over time and really suppress them. Um, which I downside with going super wide, like you still have a little bit of tail risk in

[2:15:22] that case, but not collecting enough to really compensate for that. And that at like the five delta mark, like very, very wide. sure you're collecting enough to to balance off these these one-off events

[2:15:36] where things just really get um you do get get to not only touch or maybe even >> right? >> And even today's move is a great example of that. We opened it we opened up 60 points and now we're down 20 net 20. So

[2:15:49] points and now we're down 20 net 20. So that's a 80 point move in two hours and the implied range for the entire week is 130 points. So, uh this is why we really emphasize the importance of keeping it small because these things happen more

[2:16:02] small because these things happen more often than you might imagine uh as like a new newer trader, even an intermediate trader. >> Yeah, keeping it small. Um just being very cautious about position sizing and

[2:16:14] then yeah, like just being mindful about like it's just it's a real balancing probability of profit into account, trying to minimize like your variance, make sure that the risks that you're taking like kind of compensate um for

[2:16:28] for all of that. Um so I think that like we like a 92% win rate sounds great, but if that comes at the expense of like long-term gains over time because you're offset the losses that sort of inevitably happen, you just have kind of

[2:16:44] that happening at some point. then that kind of, you know, makes a stronger case for those sort of middle of the range deltas between like, yeah, 15 and 20, 16 and 20 is generally what we kind of tend to focus on a little bit more.

[2:16:57] >> Indeed. >> Cool. Okay, so just to kind of recap, really cool piece from Kai. Um, but small deltas win often, but the low credit makes maximum losses um expensive. one max loss uh can offset

[2:17:10] looking at this very specific case uh looking at the five delta case and SPX iron condors since 2023 um large deltas collect you know more credit and use less buying power but the per trade returns vary like what you're really

[2:17:24] giving up is variance and probability of profit and when we look at sort of like the maximum profit that we can collect from trading those you know closer to at realized on an average basis that's where we saw that gap get very large um

[2:17:39] so higher delta produces higher average um you know realized return on capital but that does come with higher variance um and more you know just variability over time. So in this test um we kind of like the most balanced by our own

[2:17:54] assessment using the specific test you know the specific back test on the specific underlying strategy. Um the 15 to 30 delta range offered a more balanced um view when it came to you know premium collection for the amount

[2:18:06] of tail risk being taken. Noted that any number of like management strategies or anything that you use on top of this kind of base strategy will obviously skew those results. Um, but the balanced view just from this one lens said 15 to

[2:18:19] >> Craziness. >> Yeah. Something else. >> Crazy. >> Um, yeah. And I think that the takeaway that we were uh alluding to in the beginning is really just that when

[2:18:31] especially with a definer spread, if you're collecting more than half the probability trade. If you're collecting less than half the width, you're going don't go too low because that's when you run into that 23x scenario where one bad

[2:18:46] move in the market against you can really uh set you up for a tough time. >> Right. Yep. So that's all I got. >> Sweet. >> Hell yeah. Julia, appreciate your time. We'll see you later.

[2:18:59] >> Adios. >> Uh E- Minis chopping around here. Down eight. Nasdaq down 220. >> Crazy day. Crazy day. I I heard you have >> You heard the ding. Yes. Right. got a super bull on now. Um again, like you

[2:19:15] said early this morning, we had super bears in the the zero day and um took those off for a nice little win and now put on the super bull. So I am short the put on the super bull. So I am short the 7375 7365 put spread for tomorrow to buy

[2:19:30] the 74757490 call spread. We had a high of 7480 this morning. So yeah, >> so 50 50 cent creditish. that that bounce back happens. Most of it happens today. I still think

[2:19:43] down, but we'll see. >> Yeah, insane insane day. Uh, we're going the YouTube chat if you haven't already. We got about 10 minutes before we toss it over to Chris and Liz. We can go through any trade ideas and questions

[2:19:57] quick break. We'll see you on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[2:21:24] the show. If you were watching those promos rolling, uh, we do have a new one that just dropped 3% cash match for new accounts. You can scan this QR code, get to the landing page. There's a fun

[2:21:36] cash match you can get uh, for new account initial deposits. So, check it out. Uh, tastyrade.com/brit and uh, yeah, referral code program also a year, 100 bucks a pop. >> You know what's funny? I did the promo

[2:21:52] for that. did the voice over. Yeah. >> Oh, yeah. Nice. reading what was on the page. I felt like I mean, it was I'm not saying this like Ron Burgundy. I literally read it off not even really thinking, "Oh my

[2:22:06] god, that's 3% match on cash." Like I was just like 3% cash match. You bring wasn't until the promo went up. I was rate." Like I don't know what's wrong with me, dude. Like it was just like I

[2:22:18] just read what we had in the promo. read it in the different ways, but it wasn't that we were really doing for people. So, this is a really cool one. It's a >> But yeah, a little It's fun. The the VOS are fun because it's like you read the

[2:22:31] just a little bit different. So, like only on Tasty Trade. Only on Tasty >> Accenting certain words, right? Right. >> Only on Tasty Live. Right. you got to like turn your brain on and off into different voice uh characters.

[2:22:48] the voice part. I wasn't even thinking about the words. That's what's so funny. >> Um, yeah, trades today so far. I mean, I guess, uh, you know, the number one thing has been the the super bear that we put on this morning. We both put on

[2:23:03] >> different strikes we both won. How about that? I mean, >> yeah. So, you had the 7510 7500 short call spread, 10 points wide >> to buy the 15 point wide put spread for a dollar. And we both closed those, but

[2:23:17] you closed yours for 800 bones. Nice. >> Yeah. >> That was aggressive with it. >> I uh I did the same 7500 7505. So, a wide put spread that was further out of the money. Uh but $500 winner. And yeah,

[2:23:35] just got to secure that secure that win. Nice hedge for today. Uh, and we we kind of had the feeling that if we're going to be up 60, it feels odd that if we were to just go from up 60 to up a 100, like on what news, right? Like for what

[2:23:48] >> Um, so we just got fortunate with this big sell-off and uh we kind of painted the super bear. Like if we go back to flat, which is exactly what happened, showed you how to do that on the theoretical uh P&L on the analysis tab,

[2:24:05] and that's exactly what happened. So nice hedge in the morning here. We also calendar spreads. >> I did. I did the 230 two uh 35 uh sorry

[2:24:18] >> I did. I did the 230 two uh 35 uh sorry 225 230 235. So um and again looking at know if that that happens. I mean I don't know if we get the LMT type of move, but that's kind of my guide. Um I mean it's you know 2 220 is is um right

[2:24:33] around the corner. Honestly, it could possibly reach 225, but the idea is that uh it kind of maybe makes a nice little big move, maybe the 220 and change and week or so. You could still make money on those long options. Um Oh, you did,

[2:24:47] went further out. I actually just did the two uh four versus 11, but um we'll >> Yeah, it's a cheap it's a cheap shot to play for an upside move and you're going to make a couple hundred bucks uh if you do get that upside move. But you're

[2:25:01] right in that that band. So, you've got the 11 point implied move. We're trading at 214. So, that brings us to 225, 230, 235 for an outside move. Um, so yeah, I like it. >> Um, one thing that we didn't mention

[2:25:15] today, but we've been talking around it and like I think it had earnings. Uh, no, it didn't. Uh, I don't know what they said this morning, but ASML has been the poster child for what's going on with uh with uh the semis this

[2:25:28] morning. Um I think they I think they kind of did a little re announcement and plan, but that is not helping anything today. And so that's a lot of the reason names fall. Um which gets to the other trade. You know, SanDisk I saw done this

[2:25:43] morning and I decided to do a call calendar. I'm sorry, a call butterfly in there. And um you know, again, they're not all winners right away like the as of right now. Paid $700 for this right now. I could still currently buy

[2:25:56] right now. I could still currently buy it for $3, but uh again, it's really far 1,600,700, 1,800, but as you can see, the way that knows where it's going to be by the end of the week. So, that's why we put

[2:26:09] >> Yeah. I mean, this intraday range has been insane. We've got uh we're down 200 points from the open in SanDisk, and this has been the MMO for the stock for many, many days. Just 100 200 point ranges every single day. I'll tell you,

[2:26:24] if it's going to if it's going to drop 150 points one day this week, I'm glad other thing about this type of trade. By the end of the week, it could be like, man, remember when it was down 150 points and trading 1287 on Monday? Yeah.

[2:26:37] So, I if you have a a thing something like a butterfly, you want to see the big move away from your strikes earlier in the week rather than later. Earlier time, >> 100%. Um, and yeah, outside of that, we

[2:26:51] got these S&P trades open and closed. We got the Boeing trades open and closed. Uh, yeah, mine was a 215 long call in September short the 4day 225. I bought that for 968. So, just under the width of the 10point wide intrinsic value on

[2:27:06] the spread in Boeing, but uh, as I mentioned, I mean, really low implied mentioned, I mean, really low implied volatility. 37% is low for any equity. All these are already sitting at 36. So I would imagine all these back months

[2:27:19] probably dropped to 35 34. Uh I would be shocked if they dropped into the 20s. probably 35 in there. I mean you can just look looking at January of 2027 that just that's basically fair. That is not that is hardly moving at all based

[2:27:34] >> Yep. Uh so that's why we use this these back months as a barometer these back contracts as a barometer of like where V could drop to. So this 55% in the 4day is likely going to go into the 30s. This 40% is going to go into the 30s. This 37

[2:27:48] is going to go slightly lower. But the further out you go, the less you are exposed to the near-term vault for this particular announcement, which is why we buy in September, sell in the 4day because we want that premium in the 4day

[2:28:00] to go to zero. Uh but yeah, this option is trading for 200 bucks. So this could be a three- $400 winner uh if we do get a rally to the upside. If not, I'll buy it back, roll it to August, uh if there's premium there, and we'll see

[2:28:13] what happens. But yeah, it's been a crazy day in uh these here markets. We got in and out of some S&P 500X super bears dramal put on a super bull maybe bottom ticked it uh because the E- minis are up 650 right now. NASDAQ's up sorry

[2:28:28] down 120. So we're seeing some craziness, but this is the week at hand. >> The last thing I'll mention too, because people were asking about our NDX put it. This is why it's still on. You can see it's literally right there. Who

[2:28:42] knows how it's going to end the week, but you can see we have the uh 28200, we're short two of the 28,000, and we're long one of the 27800s. And people were close it, what we going to do? To each their own. We've talked about this. We

[2:28:55] with the super bull, super bare trades. But for us, we're keeping it for now. Um it's it's kind of a nice it really truly is a hedge against the book and and a week where it things are kind of kind of weak, if you will.

[2:29:07] weak, if you will. >> Yeah. Um I was like, why why can't I see >> zoomed out. >> I had my just the one strike selected. >> But yeah, this is a $20,000 max profit uh right at 28,000. So, yeah, I think

[2:29:21] I'm going to hold on to this one. Uh we'll see where we go. But like this is still a really nice downside hedge. It's trading for an $800 winner, but 20K is happen in this portfolio. >> Take a shot at that.

[2:29:34] we just chop around here, we're neutral. I'm not going to go for the 20k, but if we get two days out and we're up $3,500, I'm going to take that. >> So, we'll see. But we got Liz and Chris uh coming up next. Thanks for tuning in

[2:29:48] this morning. We had a great time uh with the YouTube chat. Hopefully the the were helpful. But if you want to reach out to us on Twitter, you can totally do that. I'm at tradermikeybe. Jamal's atjamalchandler. Check out that

[2:30:01] atjamalchandler. Check out that tastrade.comitpromo. Chris and Liz right now. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[2:32:29] This is Confirm and Send. I'm Chris Veio. She's Liz Dear King. Liz, how are >> I You know what, Chris? I'm actually doing pretty well in this swelteringly producer on the way in. Humid Chicago weather. Chris, I did I was joking. I

[2:32:44] back. >> Uh my daughter and wife are the same way today. Their hairs are just poofed out. It's a lot of fun. >> And we're getting the wildfire smoke back. My neighbor's house looks a little

[2:32:58] orange right now. The light >> apparently. >> apparently. >> Oh, Chris, did you um Now, are you going to use this smoke and humidity as a cover for your burning?

[2:33:12] burn. The chemical warfare is succeeding. It is. >> I was taking a stroll around this morning with my coffee around 6:45 and I plants very approvingly. >> You're going excellent as they're all

[2:33:26] doing. >> I just Yeah. You know, I I I just I feel like I can >> You got this. >> We We got this. >> We got this.

[2:33:38] >> I'm glad that your fight is over with and they surrendered. ordered this baby gate and like one of the pins holes is a different size than to go return this thing and like just it's one thing. You know this it's one

[2:33:51] another. >> One battle question one quick market question for you that I asked the boys today and I him. What do you say? I know seasonality. So July is typically I know

[2:34:05] it's not always 100% but seasonalitywise July is typically an up month. Is there July is typically an up month. Is there any um seasonality or statistics on end Friday. >> Uh good question. I'll have to dig into

[2:34:20] the archives here. Why don't we answer while I pull that data up show. >> I don't care. It's it's numbers here and look up the daily seasonality. But we can have that done

[2:34:32] I'll get this thing to work while we go through the actual questions here. But morning so far. >> What a morning. >> S&P was up uh 1% earlier. NASDAQ was up 1.3 1.4. NASDAQ's decided to give it all

[2:34:47] 1.3 1.4. NASDAQ's decided to give it all up. New monthly lows here for NQ 28,172. Volatility still in the March. Liz, I thought today was supposed to be the headline over the weekend. We don't have the Fed and earnings until Wednesday. Uh

[2:35:01] here today? Pretty decent volume so far. 682,000 traded in ES. >> And my biggest warning in trading, and like I said, you you you're very good at at knowing the why. I I just look at some very rudimentary numbers. And if

[2:35:14] you look at the VIX, the VIX is 18.75 right now, and the VIX is up just under a percentage and the SPOS are up just barely. So to me, whenever I see them barely. So to me, whenever I see them the same color, it's something seems

[2:35:27] like that this morning, and I said that when I was on with the boys. We were up 60. we were up 60 and the volatility wasn't acting as much. So that to me is a saying, okay, I don't know that these are going to hold, but I do expect to

[2:35:41] see this week because we have almost a 19 VIX. I think it's going to be a wild ride all week. All I mean it I thought today we were lower the rest of the day. Getting pinned obviously is not what happened.

[2:35:54] far between. I don't know if anyone's looking at the Coca-Cola and Visa earnings tomorrow as uh you know the things that could change the sentiment. It's Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple Fed meeting. The the entire week is

[2:36:09] basically Wednesday from 2:00 p.m. Eastern until Thursday at 4:30 Eastern >> And so you think it's going to be Were you surprised by this big move then that the fact that we reversed so heavily without a catalyst? Yeah, I mean I

[2:36:24] us one way or the other? So I was looking through my feed like surely there was a tweet, there was a comment, there was um an announcement from maybe your Monday session, Liz. Everyone saw

[2:36:36] week and said, you know, that looks like decent exit liquidity. Might as well >> True, true. >> Not not great. Um you mentioned volatility here, though. I'm looking at the VIX futures themselves. So there was

[2:36:48] a pop here today. We've retraced half of the pop. Does that mean anything to you that we've come in so quickly off the highs here? 40 cents off the highs here in the volatility futures. >> No, I mean honestly

[2:37:01] I I wanted to see a move like this. You need to see a move like this with a pop and a decline because it's supposed to be moving with the market and we had the Supposed to be moving opposite of the market obviously. Um but yeah, and I was

[2:37:15] much as it should have been in my opinion. make our way through the session. Liz, uh, before we hop over to those everyone you can send in at research.com,

[2:37:27] give me a little breakdown on oil here. It's a 6 and a half% move lower. Uh, little bit here today. IVR is down at 37, we'll call it right now. Do you fade this? Do you trade this? What do you make of it?

[2:37:41] an eye on for a long time. of volatility has been high. It's pretty much it is player in the game right now. Right. We had it up up up last week. Now it's falling out of bed this week. It was down as much as what 8% this morning. So

[2:37:54] back a little bit. >> We were talking eight and a half n. back a little bit. It is off the lows a little the last you know this is one of the reasons why we say is this a market sell off with with a catalyst. Uh oil's

[2:38:09] down from 80, you know, down a buck over the past hour uh hour and a half and you don't see that happening in stocks. So the market clearly not caring anymore about the Iran Moore headline, right? If oil being down six bucks or so was a

[2:38:21] good thing, you don't see this intraday reversal. That's probably one of the more interesting takeaways of today. I mean, just as a catalyst, this thing is >> What do you have? Do you have any oil positions right now?

[2:38:33] >> I do. I have a slew of oil positions right now. Uh sitting at 21 days to right now. Uh sitting at 21 days to expiration uh long the 9798 put spread uh which is working okay. Uh short the 7170 call spread the 6362 call spread.

[2:38:47] Some of those probably come off today because it's 21 days to expiration. Um 52 days sitting 66767 short put spread as well as a short iron 94.95. Uh so I've just I've been looking at the

[2:39:01] vol expansion. when we get a little bit of a rally here, maybe look at some downside. If we're down near 70, look to call the floor. Just playing ping pong. game, which is good. And that's you're playing you're playing the sandbox with

[2:39:15] the implied volatility. Now, ironically, CL only has a 3. Am I looking at this right? 36 rank or >> Well, it's it is it's only a 36 rank even though the raw volatility is up in the mid70s right now because oil has

[2:39:28] just been so crazy over the past year. >> Yeah. that this rare this like oh yeah >> So are you and I know you rattled them off pretty quickly and usually I can add bears or are you throwing oil? Are you playing the ball or are you picking a

[2:39:41] >> I think I'm just d I It's just rev contraction. I'm not I'm not really more about the market's going to settle down. It shouldn't be at 70. It >> Okay. That's what I wanted to see because I like I like you having the

[2:39:56] positions and I love how you have them organized where the the 21day you have them into different cycles which I think is a smart way to organize when you are layering into a certain position. >> There's also the sensitivity right if

[2:40:08] headlines are getting washed through like the December expiry is moving less than the September expiry on these headlines. So I mean it depends where the action is. If it's a if it's a pull

[2:40:21] for me when we had that pullback a few weeks ago, Liz, it's like you telling me December oil at 70 bucks. There's no way we're trading at 70 by then. This is a joke. Um, I was more than happy to do so. Uh, so it just depends on the

[2:40:34] to I'm not going to get too aggressive on selling calls, for example, in the front month if we have missiles flying back and forth because we can see we've wake up one day and it's like 5% higher three or four days in a row. And didn't

[2:40:48] going to this, but aren't we like running low on missiles? >> We're running low on missiles. We're running low on oil. We're just It doesn't seem like we had a we planned on this war lasting this long.

[2:41:01] >> No, it doesn't seem like it at all. So, yeah, who's to say? But I do I do like that you said you're in different cycles because what I noticed and when I thing you have is a different price in

[2:41:14] oil. You you didn't layer it up in the same in the same in the same price. So >> Yes. Which actually brings us to confirm and send because the first question here on confirm and send today is about oil prices. As always, send your questions

[2:41:26] in researchive.com. research attastylive.com. if you're on the platform, come over to YouTube, join the conversation, like, subscribe, and tell us what you want answered. Liz and I will try to work

[2:41:38] through them here. We got four questions a day. Here is question number one. Oil sold off hard on the Iran ceasefire after spiking last week when CL whips this violently on headlines. Is that premium worth selling or does the

[2:41:50] overnight gap risk make crude futures a sector you'd rather avoid? >> So I think honestly I don't have a lot in right now. I mean I I prefer natural is and where my mind goes because there is so many geopolitical things that

[2:42:05] happen with oil. Um, but I don't I think as long as you are defining your risk yourself enough out of the way, I think it's fun to play in this game. You you can be wrong all in the same day. >> Yeah. I mean, I think it it's a

[2:42:20] >> When you have headlines, when you have the missiles flying, when you have volatility is gap specifically. It's not >> So, if you're going to if you take that into account, right, we were talking

[2:42:32] take positions in oil, do you want to do because you're going into another weekend here. Um, but when you're doing things in a defined risk manner, you have a shock absorber in the system. And

[2:42:44] offering right now, I'm going out to the trade tab here. 4 days to expiration, the market's saying that you could go out like uh let's do $1 wide 87.88 here. >> Can we see what we're looking at um master control because I like

[2:42:58] the screen here. Right. It depends on whether or not the market is actually giving you uh a trade that's worth taking. So Liz, 8788, if we're just saying that this war is, you know, we're on a glide path to resolution, it's not

[2:43:13] we go out to the one, not even the one standard deviation move, just the expected move here, right around 8775 or so. A dollar wide strike, you're only getting 21 cents credit. >> No, thank you. So, if you're not getting

[2:43:27] mean, that almost makes it doubly unappealing, doesn't it? >> Well, and and I know you know this, but I'm clarifying this for for our audience strike. This is actually $10 wide because you're risking 700 to make or

[2:43:39] 200. So, when you're looking at that, you your 7978 is actually going to be what do you make? Yeah. Your 41 cents is actually $420 or $400 whatever dollars. Just a little FYI, it's bigger. So, you're not doing a dollar wide. It is a

[2:43:53] it it it's the equivalent to a $10 wine. >> Yeah. Um not untradeable. Just >> keep in mind what you're trading. Right. And so like I think this is a good question for on Friday. My consideration

[2:44:07] was given that I'm at 21 days to expiration. Should I get out of this position because of the weekend gap risk? And I made the personal determination. I was doubtful that we'd see oil fall down towards $71, my short

[2:44:19] strike in this position, even if we had a ceasefire come out. So, I stuck with maybe I shouldn't have because I would have been able to take more money off >> the gap >> risk. I don't know. I kind of like this

[2:44:32] expiration, right? So, and you didn't sell both sides. I I really like what playing for gap risk. This isn't This is a vault collapse, but also a side the way and still be okay even with that gap risk. But, I would almost say you're

[2:44:47] looking you're picking a direction and uh and getting yourself enough out of >> Yes. >> Yes. So, we don't want to uh pick up >> steamroller. >> A missile.

[2:45:00] >> I like missile. There you go. >> All right. Next question here. Um Microsoft Oh, this is a this is a question for you here, Liz. Uh Microsoft Microsoft reports Wednesday price for a 6.6% move. Way higher than its usual 3

[2:45:15] to 4% all on AI spending fears. If you wanted to sell that inflated premium, what's the ideal setup, Liz? I'm assuming we're going out to Ford DTE >> That is correct. And I will show you

[2:45:28] wait. I'm I wait. I'm going to wait. But kind of walk through what I would look at for something like this. Sure. >> So, um, and there Microsoft has a 26 $27, uh, expected move for that 4day

[2:45:42] trade screen? Sorry, Liz. >> No, no. Yeah, please stop me anytime because I would like everybody to see the what we're looking at. >> They will. They'll eventually Okay, so if you open up the 4-day option and then

[2:45:55] go to the put side real quick. Um, so sell the 6555. So very similar to what we were looking at in CL 655 and then go up to the top and put in the 415425.

[2:46:07] slightly, but it got my break even to about where the expected move is for the cycle. And when I was pulling this up earlier, I was getting about $4.20. So that makes my draw down very low. It almost makes it like a chicken iron

[2:46:20] condor. So it gets me my my break evens are at the expected move, a high a high got a pretty high probability of success, too. That's what I'm looking to a chicken. So I when they say what's an ideal setup, I don't know if this is

[2:46:35] ideal, but this is what I am doing, right? So I like the fact that I have more than 30% the width of the strikes. I want to get close to $4 and I'll to $4 on both sides because I don't know. I'm looking for a ball collapse.

[2:46:47] Microsoft. >> Interesting. Non-movement in Microsoft. Obviously, if you wanted to sell the inflated premium, what's the ideal directional, you're going risk defined on both ends.

[2:47:00] >> Yeah, that's premium. Yeah, that's exactly that's exactly what if you think usually four and you want to sell the premium. I do I I'm always defining my risk. But I I like getting a little bit more aggressive because in my mind,

[2:47:14] to move in one direction. If it's going to move and blow it out of the water, it's going to really blow it out of the water. Right. So, I I can't I don't want to move myself too far away. I'd rather bring it in where my draw down is where

[2:47:27] little under 50% the width of the stripes. I'm curious if you're if you think Microsoft's going to move big, why not do something like uh you know, >> no, I don't I don't think it's going to move big. I said I said that if it's

[2:47:40] big. >> So, I want my draw down to be less going to move. And I I I can't get out of its way. So, I want to lose less if it moves more, but if it doesn't move, I want to get paid. I don't want 30 cents.

[2:47:53] I want $4. >> You want 30 cents. You want $4. Yeah. I neutral, right? you want to just sell the inflated premium. I personally, given how these hyperscalers are moving, Liz, I don't know if I'd respect that

[2:48:07] give it a little bit more slack to it, but that's why we take the risk that we take. >> Uh let's go to question three. Liz, why don't you take this one? >> Okay. If if the options are on 45d are

[2:48:21] not paying much but a shorter expiration is much richer premium should traders stick near 45 days or trade where the volatility is actually higher. higher like 45 days is a good rule of thumb for us because it gives you enough

[2:48:35] time decay just yet. You have optionability optionality. What I mean working against us immediately. It's retaining enough value that we can flip it off for a minor loss. Whereas if it was something like a zero DTE, you're

[2:48:48] just going to get smacked upside the head immediately. So look, there's some things we were talking about this um recently. Instead of going out to 45 the volatility priced in, we looking around like 36 days in some recent

[2:49:02] market's giving giving it to you. Uh >> And 45 is a loose guideline, right? So something. So 45 it can be a little bit less, a little bit more. You know what,

[2:49:15] know this is just a wish because we could never be able to do this. I wish this person that was here that asked this question, I could ask questions, too, because it's very challenging for me to answer that not knowing really

[2:49:29] what they're trying to ask because um there's always going to be always always always going to be rich or premium in the in the zero days because there has to be. So, I there is also a common sense slide. there's got to be rich or

[2:49:41] there's no earnings because there has to be some prices in those options. So, don't follow that. But to Chris's point, if you're doing 45 days, it could be 36, could be 52. That's a good cursor to see where the premium is. And then you got

[2:49:56] cycle because those will be inflated because earnings are in that cycle. ask myself is which expiration is offering me uh enough compensation for the risk that I'm willing to take? Yes. >> And if it's not 45, I keep looking. And

[2:50:11] if I can't find something, then uh I wait. There's no reason to force a force a trade. There's no one telling you that you have to put something in in XYZ right now. You are the master of your own account.

[2:50:25] >> We are last question here and this one's on trade management. Appropriate as always. If a short premium trade reaches 50% profit in only back on immediately defeat the purpose of taking risk off early.

[2:50:41] >> So I'm assuming once again, I'd love to ask a question about this question. So, but if you're if you're talking about if you're in the zero DTE and you reach 50% same trade on again where you're doing the same deltas or the same concept,

[2:50:54] that defeats the purpose. What I will if I'm if I'm in like a zero DTE and and my something else on, maybe I'll go to the one, but I'm never going to in those selling an iron condor, taking it off at 50, then selling another iron condor,

[2:51:09] because you're just narrowing your range. Same thing if you were just put spread. Put spreads, it'll keep coming up because that brown bar will keep shrinking as the day goes on. Your your expected move keeps going like this as

[2:51:22] keep having to bring it in. If you're not, if you're taking it off at 50 and putting it back on, that 50%. >> I mean, if you reopen the same trade collapse already, right, Liz? Are you getting paid the same way? I mean, that

[2:51:36] always go back to the mechanics here. Is the risk worth the reward? Or is the reward worth the risk even? And if it's not, right, if I'm going back into the longer getting a third of the width of the strikes, I'm only getting 20%. Well,

[2:51:49] maybe it's not worth doing. But it all depends on the time cycle. If I'm in like a, you know, like a for example, I have a longstanding S&P 500 position tomorrow, I still wouldn't touch it because there's more than 100 days to

[2:52:05] expiration. But if it was a zero DTE and I put it on and then like let's say I today and we had this pullback this morning and we're worth a 50% profit, take it off and then probably not look to redo it again because it's a zero

[2:52:19] DTE. Move on to another strike, move on to another cycle. And so, you know, I this because it's our experience, but there's also been some research done in us this all the time for the zeros in SPX and it really said it's it's it's a

[2:52:33] line of diminishing returns once you try to put it back on again cuz you might have gotten whatever. So if you're in those zeros, whatever you place and you take off, then you almost have to wait until the next day or or or find

[2:52:45] research has proven that you don't want to keep doing it because if you were going. It's going to be that last one you lose on and you can wipe out all of your gains that you made that day. >> Yeah. The one what what I find to be so

[2:53:00] all of us have. Does this meet the criteria? I know for myself personally that if I've just traded something, I'm a little I give it a, you know, I'm criteria because I almost get this sense

[2:53:14] know what's going on. And I I often find myself putting myself back into position ah, that wasn't exactly the riskreward that I wanted and now I'm stuck with >> Yeah. >> So, that's ultimately the tell. Don't

[2:53:28] because you just made money on that exact ticker. B ticker agnostic. Assume it's a fresh trade. It's like uh momento. You went to sleep. You woke up. Oh, I traded Microsoft today. I wrote that on my arm. Good. Okay. Got it.

[2:53:42] >> Yeah. Yeah. And would you put that same trade back on? If the answer is no, I would move on. Move on. >> I would move on here. Uh Liz, we have a market that is continuing to fall. Remember, confirm and send here is every

[2:53:55] Monday through Friday, uh 11 Eastern, 10 central. Send your questions and tastilive.com. You can always put them into the YouTube chat, Liz, which is a into the YouTube chat, Liz, which is a great place to put them here. Um, I am

[2:54:08] need two more minutes while I'm getting this data together about that seasonality question that you had at the start of the show. Uh, what is the most if we're taking a look at something like S&P given this dislocating move we've

[2:54:21] had over the past hour? >> So, it was pretty interesting. I've all in SPX. I've this morning already gotten into and out of an iron condor because selling both sides. I'm typically a put seller because I I I I'd rather be

[2:54:33] optimistic and assume it's up. But with the market up as much as it was, I sold within the first couple hours because we didn't we didn't have the the direct move down. So now once again, I would not be putting another iron condor back

[2:54:46] on even though S&P just because time has marched on. And I know for a fact, take a look at the expected move now for the cycle. It's only 28. when I was when this morning when I was entering the trade pre-market because I can trade

[2:54:59] pre-market now it was about 51. So we are what time is it now? Almost almost 10:30. So we're only 2 hours into the trading day and half of its expected >> Half >> it's a lot,

[2:55:13] >> right? But now they the odds makers are pretty smart. We opened up we opened up up I think 60 points and now we were down eight. We were just we were just up 10. That that was exactly what the expected move was. $50.

[2:55:27] >> They nailed it. I mean, the the options prices the the in a liquid market prices the the in a liquid market options prices are pretty accurate. >> Answer to your question here, Liz. What is seasonality at the end of July? Today

[2:55:41] is July 27th. Since 1950, July 27th has returned. 008%. I'm just going to quote these in basis point terms because I'm not going to go 0. So, uh, eight basis points. The July 28th has averaged 27 basis points. 29th minus 13, 30th minus

[2:55:58] 8, and then the 31st plus 26 basis points. You start off August where the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, 6th. Yeah. Through the first six trading days of August, you see a net gain of about6% as

[2:56:12] well. So this isn't a bad time of the year. If you're worried about August, you're starting to get worried on August 6th because from August 6th all the way through August 20th, every single day since 1950 has averaged

[2:56:25] a negative return for the S&P 500 >> in August. Okay. So, >> in Yeah. 6th through 20th. >> No, but and my question was actually hear what I want to hear sometimes, Chris, so correct me if I'm wrong, but

[2:56:38] you said so we were basis points low low and then on the 31st it was 26, right? >> Yep. Yep. Oscillate up eight up 27 down 13 down 8 plus 26. So choppy. >> Choppy end of July firm start to August and then it is just

[2:56:54] of the month. time with you, but I'm going to take my bullish positions in August in honor of you.

[2:57:06] >> I did that myself last year and I I dishonored myself by doing so. useful trick, but you know what? when the market's going through unique circumstances like whenever you ever had this hypers scale or these companies

[2:57:18] war and all that. So maybe you just tuck it in your pocket. It's a nice talking point, but we have to respect the prices. Liz, you know that better than I seasonality and you don't. But hey, uh we'll be back tomorrow uh at same time,

[2:57:32] Confirm and send every Monday through Friday here. Send in your questions, research at tastylive.com. You of course can catch Liz and I here throughout the day on the network. So stick around. We got a brief break coming up and then Gus

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[3:00:27] back to Risk and Reward. We've had a pretty volatile day so far today. Uh we all the above. We're going to get into that here in a little bit, but I was pretty surprised to see the weakness immediately out of the gate. You know, I

[3:00:41] given us a little bit of time, but we saw a little bit of the selling off uh that extended this downside move from the pre-market to market open. So, with you're trading. I hope everybody's doing well. We're going to manage some of

[3:00:55] these positions here. I'm excited of I'm excited about a couple of them. I mean, going to talk about that here in a little bit. Do a little bit of trade management. Talk a little bit about the scalps and some of the levels that we're

[3:01:07] duration of this week. So, with that being said, guys, I hope everybody is weekend. And I mean, what a what a Monday morning to start off to start us off on, right? But I mean, we got FOMC this Wednesday. Uh, then we have a lot

[3:01:21] of exciting earnings. I really have my eye on the Qualcomm earnings this to keep an eye on that. I think I'm going to stay sideline for things like Apple or any of the bigger earnings. Um, and we might do some post earning trades

[3:01:34] on that. So, with that being said, um, we were looking at the oil market last night. We were looking at the S&P 500 market last night. We wanted to get on a comfortable. So, we cut those fairly quickly. So, we're down about 25 bucks

[3:01:50] a little bit more long delta on in here. I love that we got the gap down over the continued sell off to the downside. So, maybe we look at USO. Maybe we get on some long delta in there. Maybe sell some out of the money puts. Uh but we'll

[3:02:04] that's what this um that's what this oil position is. And then we have MEES. Uh through to make sure that the platform and everything was just working. Okay. So that's why it's uh pretty much a break even a 0000 everywhere on me. And

[3:02:19] then we got Google. Google experienced a gap up a gap up over the weekend which is really nice because uh Google earnings we had a pretty significant gap down. And whenever we had that gap down we had sold iron condor get a little

[3:02:32] side was being tested a little bit but because of this gap up over the weekend you can see here now you know our put side isn't being tested too much. if we we'll go to a 30-minut chart. See if this will load.

[3:02:53] Jamal. Uh what's going on, Ranch? Yeah. No, let me know what you're looking at. we'll circle back around to that. There we go. We got gold pulled up or we got Google pulled up right here. Uh yeah, again, downside action uh from earnings,

[3:03:06] a continued sell off to the downside. sold an iron condor with uh mostly uh ne back inside that range. So that position is working out pretty well. Uh we have the oracle trade. We sold a naked put. This one expires August 21st. We sold a

[3:03:22] 110 put and this is one of the first days we finally seen any kind of uptick in this product. So that's nice. We were only holding this trade for maybe four or 5 days. But I mean it literally I was telling Jamal earlier today it's felt

[3:03:34] three four weeks just because of the continued downside we put in right after we put the trade on. We saw newer lows and a sustained downtrend that Oracle and a little bit more of a trend to the upside is really nice. I was even

[3:03:49] we're going to stay patient, right? We're up about 200 something bucks on the day on it. Overall position is down around 50 bucks. We'll be patient. know, the downtrend that it's been in right now. So, do we even consider this

[3:04:04] a pop to the upside? It's not even technically much of a retracement. We're still trading below Friday's highs. So, until we can get a decent pop, maybe to around 130, 135, we're not going to call it a retracement pop, but it is nice to

[3:04:17] um a little bit of a pause on the down moves that we're seeing there. And then put spread on this one at the near the end of last week. We put this one on on minutes afterwards because we thought the market itself a little bit lower and

[3:04:33] we wanted to to to snag as much premium on this spread specifically. So that's more downside action over the weekend. We gap up market opens. We continue to sell off close the gap from last Friday and then continue to sell off a little

[3:04:48] money put spread here. We have 25 days left till expiration $5 wide. I'm going to be patient on it. But with this continued selloff that we're getting, I more long delta or get on a position that's a little bit more aggressive to

[3:05:03] do still up on that QQQ position, but I want to get on more deltas. I love that advantage of the premium. I want to take advantage of the volatility. And because these are some consecutive days to the downside, that long bias is seemingly a

[3:05:18] little bit more attractive. Outside of those trades, we have the SpaceX trade. there. $5 wide. Again, one of the most disappointing trades. I say this every continue to say it while we have this trade on. It is 25 days left till

[3:05:32] one by the end of the week. And uh I think it's going to I I think Wednesday we could see throughout this next month at least because I know we have a lot of important earnings this week, but especially with the FOMC this Wednesday.

[3:05:46] going to have uh I'm going to be doing with a grain of salt at least just not too sure how we're going to be managing some of these positions and how it could kind of play out over the next over the next few weeks. Uh I traded I

[3:06:01] traded one day in QQQ. Dr. just spec just spectating. Oh, I got you. We got just spectating. Oh, I got you. We got some QQQ action. think I'm going to get on some long delta as well. I see Dr. Jim might have

[3:06:14] got on some long delta. I love that we're trading at the lows over here. Um, some of our auction levels that we're paying attention to. And if anybody is new to this segment, these are the levels that experience the most trading

[3:06:26] activity within those specific prices. So, we like to keep an eye on those uh there's any type of large orders coming through to the market, they need a ton these just give it us these areas on the market just give us an idea of where a

[3:06:42] an orderflow perspective. So, with that being said, um we're going to be looking market. I'm hoping we can at least test this value area high right now. That's sitting at about 29,902. If we don't get down to these levels,

[3:06:57] I'm not going to be trading any of the NASDAQ futures either. This morning, we had a lot of great downside action from pretty much it was like a leveltole value area low this morning. Uh then we saw a continuation to the downside. We

[3:07:11] Would would have loved to take that one on the Tasty account. It was a little bit difficult. We were live at that time, too. So, it was a little bit uh it multitasking going on there. Um, but with that being said, we had more

[3:07:24] continuation to the downside. Really want to pay attention to 27,902. to be hands off, no trades for me. But if we do, we might have some opportunity to take advantage of. And if we continue to sell off lower, I'm going to

[3:07:38] the money put spreads, get on a little bit more long delta. But with that being said, we got the SpaceX position, QQQ position, Oracle, Google, MEES, uh, we got the oil trade. Um, and oil's been exciting. Uh, I think this is another

[3:07:53] storyline pans out, but I mean the volatility can't be understated. We had a pretty massive gap down coming into this week. Um, and we really haven't moved too much since. Uh, but USL gapped down to about 126 125 kind of area. So,

[3:08:08] if we can sell an out of the money put spread. Maybe get on a little bit of long delta there. Um, I'm not going to be utilizing the micro crude oil contracts or the micro micro oil contracts just because it's a little bit

[3:08:21] of a larger product. It's a little bit more difficult to manage, but I want to take advantage of oil. So, we're going to get some exposure through USO. to get some exposure through USO. Um,

[3:08:34] expiration. Let's see. Let's see what we can get for a put spread. can get for a put spread. Maybe we sell the 120s, buy the 115. credit. We could also

[3:08:48] aggressive. We could look at the 9 days till expiration and we could buy an out-of-the money call. We could buy the 135s for 282.

[3:09:00] Um, and let's see. I'm going to view that options chart just to get just to contracts traded over the last few days. That one doesn't have too much volume. Let's go back into USO there. Go back to the trade page.

[3:09:15] Nine days. We can look at the weeklies. Um, you know what? kind of inside of our expected move. Uh, we could do this one for three bucks. We do have 9 days left to expiration. And a move like this on oil. It's not even

[3:09:29] move like this on oil. It's not even necessarily looking to um it's not even saying that, you know, oil is going to go right to all-time highs from here, but just to get on a little bit of long delta just in case we get a

[3:09:41] continued pop to the upside. So, I'm going to go to the daily chart here. Uh have on oil so far today from that insane rally that we put in from the part. Um and try and get on a little bit long delta there.

[3:09:56] debating right ranch because I could collect about a $185. I could collect about two bucks. My max risk on that there's about it's $5 wide. I'm collecting $2 worth of credit. That risk

[3:10:11] is going to be about $300. I could buy this out of the money call just in case we get a directional move over the next, you know, 7 days. And if we get that, the max profit is going to be a little bit higher. Also, our max loss and our

[3:10:25] buying power cost is going to be around the same. So, I mean, that's going to be 9 days until expiration. So, it's going to be a little bit less time, but we shot, you know, just by outright buying that call. So, that's something that's

[3:10:38] on the table for me. I mean, with 9 days left to expiration, you know, that one standard deviation or that that expected move to the upside is sitting at around 136. So, I mean, I don't hate it. I really don't hate it.

[3:10:51] long delta. >> Um, so I think what we're going to do 133s. >> Where is 133 on this chart? Just so we right? So we're going to buy the out of the money 133s. That is near last

[3:11:07] Friday's low. Uh, just shy of last Friday's low. So, if we get any type of retracement pop to the upside, if we get any type of movement to fill that gap to the upside, we might be able to take advantage of some of this long exposure.

[3:11:20] this one through. $300 worth of buying if we continue to sell off lower, we could then think about maybe selling the something we want to do. But, we'll let this position cook a little bit longer,

[3:11:33] see how that oil trade plays out. And again, I'm really I'm really excited for market. We have FOMC this Wednesday, too. So, um, at this point, I think volatility, just seeing the volatility is exciting.

[3:11:47] delta included. I feel you on that. It's a, in my opinion, it's actually a little Um, I mean, with all the binary events right around the corner, you kind of have to pick your spots a little bit

[3:12:00] more. So, I'm hoping that the market does continue to sell off to the downside. I will say Grumpy just because we have some other levels we want to long delta today. Uh but I would love to see a little bit more downside action.

[3:12:13] It's looking like we haven't really wanted any type of reversal yet. And the fact that we haven't gotten a real reversal today yet, I wouldn't necessarily say excites me, but lets me know uh we still potentially have

[3:12:25] opportunity in the market because what we're only 2 hours into the trading day. We still have about 3 4 5 hours left of the trading day. So if we continue to make lower lows, I really want to see how we respond off this level of value.

[3:12:37] off of that. I know we have a trade of the day later today. So depending on what the market does, maybe we take a scalp on the micro NASDAQ. Maybe we can with that being said, market is still down overall. Volatility is up on the

[3:12:51] day. Uh volatility is up on the day, right? And I'm over here buying the USO contracts. When volatility is finally spiking, and I mean we spiked to a high today of 1993, just shy of that 20 level on VIX. So I mean, the volatility is

[3:13:04] we're getting a little bit more fear into the market. Um, and volatility is once again. I mean, so we'll be patient. Uh, but with that being said, we got a we have Apple earnings later this week. This isn't something that I'm looking to

[3:13:19] trade, but Apple is still trading towards at all-time highs. So, that's earnings plays out this Thursday. And whenever we have earnings at some type of high or some type of significant low, to me, it's not super exciting to trade

[3:13:31] it, but it's always exciting to see how the market response or the reaction is to that earnings whenever it's at such a a level that it's not usually at, I guess you would say. >> Yeah, less is more. Less is more. That's

[3:13:44] this week. Um, and something that we were talking about today was maybe off that out of the money puts, that out little bit of an uptick in that. Uh, but the weakness just sustains in Oracle.

[3:13:57] Um, we're up 4% on the day, so I'm not going to knock it too much. Uh, but we've gotten a little bit more volatility into there. This was our watches where we were adding any type of underlying that was pretty much trading

[3:14:10] want to watch to see how the market plays out after coming off of its all-time high. So, we had some names like Micron. I kind of wish I didn't get I would have preferred to been short. We got on some longs on Micron on 717 just

[3:14:25] a few days ago. We were able to catch some long delta to the upside, but I have preferred to get on some short delta at around 960. Right. Hindsight. Yeah. But with that being said, with the understanding that I believe that the

[3:14:39] names, I think whenever we get these retracement pops on the backside, it on some short delta on in some of those names. And I mean, if the memory names, to make higher highs and, you know, so be it. But with the way that it's

[3:14:53] the the rotation that we've kind of seen in these markets, short delta seems to SanDisk names. And I mean, of course, it's easier to say whenever these names even whenever we had this retracement pop, so if we continue to get any type

[3:15:07] some out of the money calls there. But with names like this and the nature of its volatility, these are names that I really don't want to get short into the hole. Um, just cuz again, we understand the type of volatility these names have,

[3:15:20] we could be, you know, right back above 1,000. Yeah, you know, by this week, especially with FOMC on Wednesday and other earnings that we have this week. I trade anything like a K1. It's just not worth it. I hear you. Uh, McDonald's

[3:15:33] quite bullish today after bouncing from 261 support. Any ideas before earnings? McDonald's. Let's go ahead and check out McDonald's. Uh what's going on, Michael? Uh what's going on, Omam? What's going on, guys? What are you guys looking at

[3:15:45] are you guys trading? I was just talking about how Oracle is top of my portfolio. Uh I have a trade on in the post Google earnings. Uh I'm going to be looking at QCOM's earnings this Wednesday, too. So, we have a lot of exciting stuff on the

[3:15:58] exciting this week is the is the directional trades that we put on in the know, we we'll keep an eye on these other earnings and these other underlyings at the same time. Uh but it's looking like we're getting we're

[3:16:11] bit of a continuation to the upside today. That's kind of nice. Looks like McDonald's has been a on a pretty steady aggressive downtrend. Um but with that being said, we got the IVR at 92. Pretty decent volatility. Uh then we have what

[3:16:25] August 4th, so they're kind of just right around the corner. We want to watch out for that expansion and implied volatility as we get closer to that something I would take in a trade in right now. But I mean McDonald's is

[3:16:39] the upside, you know, as it continues to put in lower lowers in this market. Uh, some, you know, a little bit of volatility and some fast food products as well. Um, a sinkhole. Yeah, I mean, this

[3:16:52] market is pretty weak today. Uh, and again, I'm I'm thinking we get on a little bit more long delta here. I know this looks super aggressive and this We're starting to break outside of that range that we had pretty much

[3:17:05] consolidated in the entire summer. And now that we're coming to the end of to put in a little bit more downside action ahead of FOMC on Wednesday. So, because we have no consolidated price action to trade off of, right? I mean,

[3:17:20] the beginning of the year, you know, the end of March from March 27th, you know, all the way to a high of, you know, June 3rd sitting around 747. So, this seems mean, I think it's healthy. You know, I think we get so used to the market

[3:17:34] making continuous new highs. I think we get so used to the market continuously, will over time, but even just in a shorter time frame context, you know, I the downside, I think we could take advantage of those, you know, maybe get

[3:17:49] on. Whenever the market sells off, we get an expansion of volatility at the top of mind for me. get on a little bit more long delta as we continue to sell more long delta as we continue to sell off further. Um this market is

[3:18:03] is offering a lot of opportunity though I will say um and if anybody's just joining us some of the levels that we have marked off right now uh these are our levels of value for this week. Uh we use a volume profile to get these

[3:18:15] levels. These are the one standard deviation volume levels um from the most specific price levels. And right now, we're keeping an eye on to see if this because we'd love to take a little bit of action if we can get down to around

[3:18:31] 27,900. So, we're going to keep an eye on that. Uh um let's go ahead and go to our watches, know we had some Dell consolidating at its highs.

[3:18:45] seeing a little bit of a continued rotation. And again, it's so funny at their all-time highs or near that all-time highs and it can just be so uncomfortable to get some short delta on into strength and sometimes it can be so

[3:18:59] uncomfortable to get on some long delta into weakness. So, um, Dell is going to think I would have gotten some short delta on here, but I believe I had seen Trump said something about Dell about how it was a good buy or something along

[3:19:13] panned out over the last few months whenever something like that was don't want to hop in front of that train. Uh but looking back at it, it bit more long delta on, but this one is more attractive. Looks like we have

[3:19:25] earnings August 27th, so we'll leave it off to the side for now. Uh but we have bit overextended. I we have Intel on the day down about 4%. It looks like this one is leading the charge from Micron. Um and let's double check. Yeah, Intel

[3:19:41] is leading the charge from Micron. Let's see SNDK. SNDK and M. So, Micron is lagging behind SanDisk and Intel a little bit here. Um, so this market is definitely starting to pull back. I I just can't get the silver

[3:19:57] not look like >> right, do these do these not look very similar in terms of the type of, you know, volatility, the type of hype that these markets have seen lately. So I mean if the top is going to be in on

[3:20:11] these I think the approach is going to be how we were you know viewing the gold gold whenever we believed that high was put in we were getting on some short going to be the same approach that we have with some of these memory names.

[3:20:25] rally a little bit but that's where the risktoreward is going to be slightly more favorable because I mean these names have written off complete hype and I in my opinion have gotten a little bit too overextended. I know, easy to say in

[3:20:38] mean, these names went from about 200 bucks to,250 to 1250, you know, within a couple months. So, take the helm very soon. No, I'm excited about that. Um, I don't know what your

[3:20:53] futures. I think it's going to be great to get direct exposure to any market that you want. Like, if you want to trade a you want to trade at Nvidia, you have a futures product with that is pretty cool. I mean, I think it's going

[3:21:05] strategies. Maybe you have on a lot of long delta and you want to reduce those deltas. Maybe you sell a future in Nvidia on the single stock. Maybe you more like that. So, I'm excited. I know they launched them in the early 2000s,

[3:21:19] so it's pretty cool to see them coming back. Um, and you know, we'll see how that plays out. You know, I know with the PDT rule being gone, traders have a lot more direct access, excuse me, to put on directional

[3:21:32] positions on either side of the market on some of these larger underlyings. But I think futures products definitely serve um definitely serve its own going to be too redundant. I think it's going to offer a little bit more

[3:21:46] mean, I'm excited for it. I'm looking forward to it. Are you going to trade Tesla? Uh, I know Tesla had earnings not too long ago. I know we were keeping an eye on Tesla. Wanted to potentially get on some long delta. Right now, I'm

[3:22:00] see from when it's heard it earnings, we had a pretty large gap down to the downside. We had a continued sell off from about 341 all the way down to a low of 316. So, the volatility, the range is definitely there in Tesla. This is its

[3:22:14] off. But I mean, even if we just look back, you know, to the beginning of this year in February, you can see how aggressive Tesla can get, right? I mean, know, we can sell off for over a 100 straight points. So, although these

[3:22:28] attractive, I'm going to be a little bit patient here. Um, because right now we still have some exposure to the SpaceX market. Um, so I don't want to get I don't want to get double long Elon. If I'm going to get

[3:22:43] some long delta on Elon, I rather it be in one name at a time. So, uh, if you have missed so far today, uh, we put on this oil trade. This is a USO trade. Got We got a gap down over the weekend. Just looking for a little bit of a

[3:22:56] retracement pop. Nothing too aggressive. It was about $300 worth of buying power. We did buy that call. So, our max loss is going to be the debit that we paid on order entry. Um, and we don't have to realize the entire loss, right? If oil

[3:23:09] continues to sell off, we can cut this at we can cut this down a 100 bucks and reposition if we want to. Um or switch up the strategy or maybe sell an out of says, it doesn't mean you have to

[3:23:22] a little bit more before it gets to that point, but it's nice knowing the worst a trade. So that was the idea over there on USO. Um and again, we got a little really love to see this market continue to sell off to get on a little bit more

[3:23:37] long delta, but we got Grumpy Mike saying Tesla to zero would be fun. Yeah, fireworks for sure. I don't know. I don't know if I'm hoping Tesla to go to zero, but we might see, you know, Tesla stabilize a little bit more now from all

[3:23:50] the volatile actions uh it usually offers us. Uh and I just want to quickly these moves can happen fairly quickly sometimes. Um, like even the opportunity even the window of opportunity this this

[3:24:04] of opportunity this morning to get short was only about 10 minutes. You know what a lot of these auction levels. So if you weren't able to take a trade within that the opportunity. So that's why sometimes it's nice to just have these pulled up

[3:24:17] already marked off, you know, put in some alerts if you need to, so you're day if you got some of the things you have to do at the same time. But you can need to make some of these decisions whenever the market is offering a

[3:24:31] value once again are going to be the areas we're going to continue to pay trades that I'm posting, all the trades that I take on micro NASDAQ are coming off these edges of value. So we're going to continue to take these trades. Our

[3:24:44] next value area high that we have in mind is going to be 27,900. So we're not levels. We want to then pay attention to the tape and read the order flow interest. But it's always nice to know what those levels are going to be before

[3:24:58] it gets there so we can be prepared for where we even want to look for or for where and what we want to look for in the market. Oracle made a turn still short opportunity there. Yeah, Oracle finally getting a little bit of a relief

[3:25:11] pop. Um we're down on this overall position. We had sold an out of the money put. Uh we sold the 110 strike expiring in August 21st. Oracle has been such a difficult trade, right? I mean, I that's almost the definition of a

[3:25:25] continuation to the upside that we saw today, but I mean that's the continuation of, you know, a literal falling knife to the downside. A difficult trade. Uh but I'm hoping we didn't get long too far away from the

[3:25:38] bottom. I don't mind sitting in a little bit of draw down, but uh we're not going option. We'll cut the trade at maybe 200, 250 if we need to, if we get back down there. But, uh, oil's definitely been another one.

[3:25:52] again, the positions that we have on, we have on a little bit of oil exposure in USO, SpaceX that expires in about 25 days left to expiration. We got some long delta on in QQQ. We put this one on last Friday. Uh, we have the long delta

[3:26:06] on an Oracle, Google Iron Condor from earnings. Um, and we'll put on some more being said, guys, I appreciate you guys taking the time. Uh, we'll be back with little bit. Be sure to stay tuned for more amazing content. Ranch, Big Deal,

[3:26:21] thanks for taking the time to hang out and we'll catch you here in a little and we'll catch you here in a little bit. Stay tuned.

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[3:29:48] It's midday here, noon Eastern, 11 Central, which means it's a good time for a quick FX check-in with our man Glenn Frybar. Glenn, how are you today? >> Fantastic. Getting back into the swing of things. How about yourself?

[3:30:02] I watching a market that's having quite the topsyturvy day here especially the US dollar which opened lower but now what would be uh second third highest close of the year if things stand. Yeah, it's funny. We get into uh these weeks

[3:30:18] it's funny. We get into uh these weeks where you have uh earnings data, all the sort of, you know, event uh that driven risk that we know and love. And we're getting uh a tale of of of two leadups because last week it felt like we were

[3:30:34] anticipating events all week and this week uh we're we're swinging in full week uh we're we're swinging in full force back and forth. um a huge uh riskoff uh tumble into the US trading session.

[3:30:49] uh tumble into the US trading session. Um sets the stage up for you know not uh the muted volatility into this week's events that I would have expected. Uh I know pre-market you were even saying this uh checks all the boxes for a

[3:31:03] little relief rally. Not the case into midday. kind of the table was set. We got our catalyst. There was nothing else coming along. Maybe the market would just stay pinned here and you know, hold on.

[3:31:17] Obviously not. But that's good news for the dollar because with the news over lower. Uh we did see that the demand for there which makes sense. Risk off or risk is coming off the table. So demand

[3:31:31] for liquidity dissipates. That's obviously not the case when we check in Uh dollar index is where we're going to start before we hop over into spot effects world. 10147 right now on Dixie

[3:31:44] after what's been a good little run the past few days bouncing off of former resistance turn support over the past year. Glenn, a lot of this has to do is the largest component. So let's start there. When you're taking a look at the

[3:31:57] euro today, uh what do you make of this price action particularly around these right now? important call out there because um the kind of approach that we're taking unpacking from that wider dollar index

[3:32:11] when you start to get closer to uh you know the former resistance the former highs for that dollar basket then that opens up a world of opportunity to see which uh price extremes on the spot level or on the the the individual

[3:32:26] currency level are most interesting and the euro is absolutely one of them. Um we are it appears to be bouncing in the last hour to get really granular above

[3:32:38] uh the 113 half in the spot market. Um I can't see what exactly that is here but that is the the the lows that we've seen uh for this euro and for the time being it it it looks to hold. Uh and so that

[3:32:54] opens up uh depending on how you know granular, how intraday of a a trader you granular, how intraday of a a trader you are a potential opportunity for reversal are a potential opportunity for reversal here. Um or at least uh very early uh

[3:33:08] very easy to know when you're wrong if these levels don't hold for the next hour or so. um we could be taking another leg lower, but riskreward to the another leg lower, but riskreward to the upside now uh favors historic precedent

[3:33:21] at least for the last year plus. Is that how you're thinking about it? Last week when we were talking about this, I know that you and I are differently. My approach is not necessarily super bold up on the dollar.

[3:33:34] It's more of the idea that the euro probably is facing enough headwinds in the short term that rallying here henceforth is going to be difficult. So, >> Yep. >> Last Thursday, what did we see here on

[3:33:47] the ECB meeting? Uh, just a quick technical look, bearish engulfing bar. We were above the prior session high. We closed below the prior session low. So, that to me is where risk is capped off right now. 114 and 61 pips. As long as

[3:34:00] we hold below there, the thrust of this move lower is still contained. Um, and to that point, the one month moving average now is at 11453. So if you get through that Thursday high of 11461, you've then breached the 1 month.

[3:34:14] Something clearly the yellow line here Glenn has been guiding this market down for several weeks now since the middle of May. That would be a change in the character of this decline. So as long as that holds up right now, I see this on a

[3:34:26] Euro dollar spot on this 4hour time >> I see a recent little bounce here. I see a breakdown last week on Thursday. I saw uptrend here at the start of the week

[3:34:40] and failed. And so this now looks like a broken trend. This is now a bare flag top left to bottom right. I'm looking for a break of 11360 or so to signal continuation into a new yearly low >> at an inflection point for sure. and and

[3:34:56] and I think the way we're talking about it is it's helpful to frame that this for the week when we look at the the the week ahead can give us some idea about

[3:35:08] where we run into Wednesday. But the the the huge catalyst here being the the huge catalyst here being the Wednesday FOMC and that is usually can be a formality. But this time around we still have uh rate hike odds very much

[3:35:24] in the air until then. Um do you see that any any sort of compression there in the runup to Wednesday? Because when we talk about these currencies, you are we talk about these currencies, you are a proponent of um a slowing euro. But

[3:35:39] the cool part about these currencies is they're very two-sided stories, and I dollar side of it, at least leading up to Wednesday. >> Um, I I I'm not worried about the dollar side of the risk. I mean, one of the

[3:35:53] noteworthy things about today, oil prices are still off what, six% today? >> 6.73%. If I told you um if we were talking about this last week and I was the

[3:36:08] correlation between Fed hike odds and oil. The SR3 contract and crude oil had a rolling oneweek correlation of uh negative0.95. >> So every tick higher in oil was

[3:36:21] basically meant that higher hike odds. >> Right? So if we had come into today and >> Right? So if we had come into today and said oil is going to be down 6 7%. moving? I would have said they're going to go down and they haven't gone

[3:36:36] >> no. >> Uh we are now flat. The SR3Z6 is flat on the day. We gapped open higher signaling there was a reduction in cut odds and now we are back to effectively where we closed with Friday's move. So what does

[3:36:48] that tell me here? The market sees that there's inflation coming in the system thanks to oil. No matter what, the supply chain hiccups, they're there. Real rates have gone up for a reason in

[3:37:01] obviously thinking that we're going to get higher interest rates here, henceforth. So, um, when I look at the dollar right now, yeah, it's a two-sided story with the euro, but the dollar does have that rate

[3:37:14] that seemingly can't disappear right now. So, the market thinks September, now. So, the market thinks September, December, first two hikes. And and that's important to know is because we could get uh as a part of the

[3:37:27] nuance of uh what this meeting will entail. Um it could matter way more if there's any change in the the kind of total cycle odds and not necessarily as

[3:37:39] total cycle odds and not necessarily as nitpicky as to when uh I think is is exactly right. Um uh but it should make for uh a lot of short-term volatility.

[3:37:51] >> Glenn um to that point though, we want to talk about particular managing the short the euro in the spot, obviously today's a fine day. If you're doing what there are some things to consider. >> Um primarily of which we have some short

[3:38:06] strikes that are here that we're just below them and we're only at 11 days to expiration. This one that's sitting at the 114 and a half 115 was one of our CME 5minute futures. So that was put on within the 21 days. I'm going to ride

[3:38:19] within the 21 days. I'm going to ride this down a little bit more. The 115 1.5 116 we're getting pretty darn close to 80% pro uh 80% max profit here. If the euro jumps 100 pips tomorrow, this thing is going to go to worthless

[3:38:33] very quickly because I don't have enough time for it to recover. So um to that end, let's see if just get that filled that removed off the books. uh sitting out at 39 days to expiration the 115 and a half 116 again similar could it be

[3:38:45] taken off today for a profit yes but bare flag break of uptrend dollar index turning higher I think it's worth sitting tight right now the dollar still seems to have some mojo as it were >> I concur and does that thesis hold for

[3:39:00] dollar >> I did I did get filled in the Canadian dollar you and I were uh you know last week dollar CAD fell back into its 50-day moving average. I'll pull it up here on the screen. And we could see

[3:39:14] that it gave you that bullish engulfing bar key reversal right when it did. So, came right ahead of that March swing high. So, that was the rationale for looking short the Canadian dollar. I I did that again through 6C because maybe

[3:39:28] euro. I don't need this thing to go up per se. My bet is that maybe that's a floor of sorts in the Canadian dollar. So in 6C that flipped over and became uh you know the 72 71 and a half short call spread here which could be taken off for

[3:39:42] of max profit right now and there's going to let it run. But I'm feeling good about those particular views technicals. And when you look at 6C here, you get your engulfing bar.

[3:40:00] month. And the past 5 days, we've been just unable to climb through the one week or the one month. Treating it as a >> It feels heavy. Feels heavy.

[3:40:13] >> 100%. Uh the last market I want to call out that uh is my mover of the day uh of course mover of the day being the dollar but dollar Swiss Frank actually is the

[3:40:25] one I want to take a look at. Um this one just hitting new year long highs uh one just hitting new year long highs uh eyeing in the spot market that uh 82 round number um but we haven't been here since last June. um this compounding on

[3:40:41] some early morning US dollar strength and a report that the Swiss National Bank is nowhere close to wanting to raise rates all the way through the end raise rates all the way through the end of 2027. Regardless of if that's hearsay

[3:40:54] or not, it's enough to bolster uh the dollar against this currency. And another important call out here is that this is actually becoming a a big favorite uh for carry traders. Uh when we hear the word carry trade, I I know

[3:41:09] anecdotally we all go to dollar yen, but that's been a much more political uh market to try and trade. Um this Swiss Frank pair also ultra- low rates used Frank pair also ultra- low rates used here as a funding currency means that if

[3:41:24] you got long here in the dollar, you're you're gaining the yield from holding dollars, financing them at zero. and and that's been a popular and over the past 6 months very successful when you compound with the the spot rate and uh

[3:41:39] here in the US the the margin requirement as well to hold this at 3% has led this to become a more uh potentially historically has been a more potentially historically has been a more profitable carry trade per um you know

[3:41:54] profitable carry trade per um you know even dollar than uh this dollar yen that's uh held at a higher requirement um and has, you know, the the Bank of Japan has actually raised rates and uh lowered that interest rate differential.

[3:42:11] Just one I'm definitely watching this week. Um it's stalling similarly to the Euro and and everything else right now over the past hour, but right here uh at

[3:42:23] its resistance level, this will be one to to watch. very supportive technical chart over the past few months. Um, but how far is too far

[3:42:35] um and and will fair trade hold? >> Oh, I you know I absolutely loathe the Swiss Frank September 6, 2011. >> I live uh 10 minutes from my office at the time and I start my day at 4:30 in

[3:42:49] the morning and right when I get to work, the Swiss National Bank installed the Euros Swiss floor at 1:20. So when you're sitting long a bunch of uh Swiss Franks visa v the euro and the dollar um my one and only major margin call that

[3:43:03] morning. But Glenn, I'm going to give you something here. Switzerland doesn't makers are here talking about the desire for a much weaker currency. And if the currency strengthens too much, they're going to defend and intervene to weaken

[3:43:16] the currency. So Fed hike odds are going up. US Treasury yields are going up. The S&B is sitting on their hands and keeping rates pinned at the floor. interest rate differentials guide the FX market more than anything else. So, if

[3:43:29] you're paying attention to dollar Swiss, uh you may have a case there, Glenn, potentially coming to uh coming to fruition here moving forward. But, you know, we are wrapped up here. That's our FX midday update. Uh Euro, Canadian

[3:43:43] dollar, Swiss Frank, they're all dollars making a bit of a comeback second half of the session. Dollar index DXY, dollar sign DXY on your platform looking at the potential for a third highest close of the year here today after gapping open

[3:43:56] lower. Glenn, we will see you tomorrow. As always, we're going to take a quick break here. Uh, Tasty Live programming continues next. Go get some coffee, continues next. Go get some coffee, folks. Trading Day moves on.

[3:44:18] between the numbers, ready to pounce. Some traders hide from it, some ride it. If that's you, join us on Tasty Trade. Genius loves company.

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[3:46:34] watching my tongue. If it ain't kind of watching my tongue. If it ain't kind of necessary, then I will be done. I am human and I am flawed.

[3:46:47] and I am flawed. My skin is thin and sometimes I bear my claws. Forgiving me, forgiving you. We're all learning to live in truth. All I can do is what

[3:47:06] to live in truth. All I can do is what would love do? Love would love you. What would love do?

[3:47:18] Love would love you. Love you. What would love do? Love would love you. What would love me? Love would love me. What would love me? Love would love me. Love will love you. Love you. Put down

[3:47:32] my halo. Put down my wings. realizing I can't fix everyone or everything. You are human and you have your own

[3:47:45] You are human and you have your own path. And if you need me, I'll just wait path. And if you need me, I'll just wait here until you ask. Forgiven, forgiving you. We're all learning

[3:47:59] We're all learning to live in truth. All I can do is what to live in truth. All I can do is what will love do?

[3:48:13] Love would love you. What would love do? Love would love you. Love would love you. Love you. What would love do? Love would love you. What would love me? Love would love me.

[3:48:28] Love would love you. Love you. What would I love to >> Love do love. >> Love will love you. >> Love you. >> What will love you? Love will love you.

[3:48:45] >> Love me. >> Love will love me. >> Love will love me. >> Love you. Yeah.

[3:51:13] Making our own way.

[3:51:29] day on the trading desk. And so, we finally got our man over here from the it. Marty, what's going on, bro? You know how we do. Going on, man. wasn't >> That's what me and Marty do all the

[3:51:42] That's how we do it. What's going on? >> It's been really, really busy. I think that, you know, when I woke up this morning, I saw the spoos were up or the e- minis were up 77 handles >> by the time I got and I saw I think I

[3:51:54] >> by the time I got and I saw I think I saw AMD was up like it was a little bit some of these names. rush these, you know, chip makers again and then um so >> when it shows that type of strength

[3:52:07] overnight, usually there's some I expect a little bit of follow through and then it's just been they've just hammered it. So you got a 100 handle range in the >> and the volume I think is at like which

[3:52:20] was looking at that volume after the way he was throwing high sliders at me the other and who is he say I don't want to get on his side. >> No, you're not going to get on his side. He's a great sport man. Chris back he

[3:52:33] enamored by you. >> Enamored enamored by you. But now I paid like 900,000 already. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, it's um it's there's a lot of volume early in the day. Uh you know, Frankie Walsh mentioned it in the

[3:52:46] lot of volume already. >> Frankie started sending me volume updates during the day, too. He saw me. >> He's sending them to you now. club now. >> No, but he's he's so good. He is. Yeah.

[3:53:01] that, right? Looking at volume and um that, you know, to help determine a day. funny part about it, you know, um as am I. As is a bunch of us here. But um cuz I mean I can sit here and talk to you for 20 minutes before we realize

[3:53:17] >> Let's take a look at the list real quick first and then we can kind of >> um go over things after that. But yeah, we've seen some volume here early on. moving around. One of the things that I pay attention to every single day is

[3:53:30] How many four-letter names are on the list? But here we got the list in front >> All right, so we got number 20, we got Sophie at 45. 19, we got Netflix at a Sophie at 45. 19, we got Netflix at a 34. 18 now at a 57. That stock is up

[3:53:45] like six bucks today. >> I saw that too. Right. Meta's at an 80 >> I saw that too. Right. Meta's at an 80 at 17. Amazon holding steady at 16 at a at 17. Amazon holding steady at 16 at a 55. Oracle 15 at 59, SOXL at 88, uh 13,

[3:54:01] Palunteer at 76, TQQ Q, sorry, I forgot that Q almost 68 extra Q >> SMH at 11 at a 97. And now we got the >> SMH at 11 at a 97. And now we got the top 10. SanDisk 77 at number 10.

[3:54:16] top 10. SanDisk 77 at number 10. Microsoft at an 88 at nine. SpaceX at an eight at 97%. I didn't even look at it today. Uh Google L at a 33 at number seven. AMD which I thought I saw up last night. I don't maybe I was

[3:54:32] up last night. I don't maybe I was mispounded >> The high was 528. It's trading 4. >> Where did it close at on Friday again? >> I don't have my AMD's at 6 at 89. Anyway, as we digress

[3:54:47] through it, Intel at 5. >> Yeah, closed at 528 521 on Friday. So it >> Yeah. And I looked at it and I was like, "Oh my god." And then Intel's at a five. I >> He likes to

[3:55:00] >> I like to go I like to bring it to a crescendo. Right. All right. So, we got uh Apple at a number four, MU three at 80%. Tesla

[3:55:13] a number four, MU three at 80%. Tesla number two at 42, and Nvidia at a 64 at Numero Uno. >> Yeah, Nvidia getting rocked today. I >> Yeah, Nvidia getting rocked today. I mean, um, it's beginning of a busy week.

[3:55:25] >> Well, Mondays, like I've said, are just they're different at the desk. And now inside day in the e- minis, but that 100 handle range is nice. >> You know, it's nice. So, you see, maybe they could get up to like 1.8 million in

[3:55:39] they? Or something. >> I think it's very easy. We're already at >> We'll see what happens. I mean, it was uh it was interesting cuz usually when you see that up 50, 60, 70 handles overnight, you figure something somebody

[3:55:53] >> I know, right? I know, right? Along with the pullback Cool. >> Yeah. I mean, we tried to take advantage of it again. I I got short XPX trade because and you get this like I mean, I

[3:56:06] got long deltas in the books. I'm like, it makes sense. I actually the thing they were up 70 and change 5 something should do it here. Maybe they won't hold. And the fact that they held it to

[3:56:18] >> Yeah. All right. It was interesting cuz I looked at the open and I'm like, okay, couple guys are asking me what I thought. And I always say observationally, you know, observationally, but I didn't think it

[3:56:31] was going to be an inside day, so to speak. And I don't know if 105 annals is an inside day. Maybe now it is. Maybe you could look at halfway back or something and see if that if that number holds or if it gets above it. But yeah,

[3:56:43] there. I'd be really interested to see what the S&P volume is. So, with a whole bunch of four-letter names. It continues to be the case. And we got >> big earnings coming up this week. It's going to be a heck of a week coming up

[3:56:58] up, dude. We appreciate you. I know it's busy over there. Really appreciate you coming. >> My ear swelled from all those calls. >> So, this is a nice break. >> Oh, man. Good to have Marty with some uh

[3:57:12] Thanks for watching Tasty Live, folks. We appreciate you guys. I'll be back in So, catch you on the other side of this break. break. >> All right.

[3:57:46] easy it is. >> It's a very quick, light platform. >> It's all on one page >> and with one or two clicks, you can be anywhere on the platform. Being able to see graphically where your

[3:58:00] profit and loss zones are. Whether it's a pool, a puddle, or a sea, you can navigate your way out of it with a safety platform. So, I love that. >> You guys have the most unbelievable customer service in the business.

[3:58:13] right away. >> They actively listen to the customers to make changes to the platform to make it better. >> In fact, I've never seen anything like it in any corporation in the United

[3:58:26] it in any corporation in the United States. match on all qualifying deposits up to $3,000.

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[4:00:00] Chandler. Of course, I'm the beginning the day. After me will be Mike Butler and then have a guest trader of the day. But uh to kick it off, it's always interesting. Uh we we we do the show

[4:00:14] here um starting at 7:30 a.m. Central. We're done at 10. And we go through so throughout the show, particularly on the latter half of the show, cuz honestly, we're looking to trade things once we kind of establish what the the mood of

[4:00:28] going to be doing, what's the pattern, if there is one. And um that determines how we're going to trade sort of throughout the day and beyond. And this watched the show this morning, you saw that we were already looking at getting

[4:00:44] short delta. Um, putting some type of trade on against the portfolio. I'm fairly long delta in the book. Um, via a bunch of things, whether it's calendar call spreads, whether it's short puts in in some names, um, whether it's

[4:00:56] semi-names, whether it's long calendars or long diagonals in some of these uh, balance out the book in that way instead of getting short delta a lot of the time

[4:01:08] and trying to find puts if you will to buy. Um what I have done is I have noticed that over the last particularly since July over the last 3 weeks we have seen basically days where chips move one way and consumer staples and software

[4:01:22] And you're seeing exactly that today, right? And so I'm kind of long all of them. And the de facto works in such that when the chips go down, those other things go up. So they almost work like they're long puts, right? And on the

[4:01:35] other days when the software and and the consumer staples are down, the chips go you balance it out. And then you choose when to take certain ones off, etc. I might actually go into more of this uh the day before we get all the big stuff,

[4:01:49] out throughout the book and show you some of the things that we're dealing with here. But today we looked for sort of another trade seemingly like a And I'll get to that um right now

[4:02:02] actually uh looking at selling uh something in GLW ahead of earnings. Now GLW again, if you watch the show this morning, it's fascinating. Corning is a glassware company. Anybody knows that.

[4:02:16] Everybody knows that. That's what Corning has been for a very long time. However, in recent times, they do not trade like a glassware company. As a related company. I mean, you can just see it if you look at their their stock

[4:02:30] chart pattern. It looks very similar to a lot of the other names that we see. it. And so, when I'm looking at doing a trade, a lot of times, um, I'll look at doing for earnings calendar call spreads or calendar put spreads. Now, talked

[4:02:46] about this plenty of times. Um, but the one of the reasons I like doing those calendar spreads on earnings is because if a name gets a big move, it's an easy way to get long it instead of I don't usually like to be short for earnings.

[4:03:00] But this time around is different. If you've noticed over the last couple of have not fared that well. uh they've either been kind of an inside move to down, meaning if there was an expected move of $20 or something, it might move

[4:03:15] opportunity, honestly. And a lot of them have been kind of moving to the downside, but because of these these hyped up expectations around earnings based on the whole idea of the AI trade and the buildout and capeex and all

[4:03:28] these other things, capex, however you want to say it if you're nasty. But there's been so many different things going on with this tech space and most couple of weeks. And on earnings, like we said, we haven't seen the crazy big

[4:03:42] upside moves after beating on earnings or or saying something positive or build out and how much they're they're spending on these on these these AI going forward. So, I am playing GLW in that way. And if you look at the chart

[4:03:56] here, like I mentioned of GLW, you can see, I mean, its heyday here more recently was the 30th of June, and it's done nothing but fade lower over the last month or so. If you look at SMH, kind of a similar thing. SMH is a

[4:04:13] similar deal. Not to the same degree, but it has faded quite a bit over the last month or so since we've started the month of July. I mean, we can go down doing it worse than others. AMAT, similar deal, moving to the downside

[4:04:27] first to really suffer big move to the downside since the beginning of July. downside since the beginning of July. SanDisk and WDC are starting to do the wonder, are they going to bounce back on earnings? I'm not so sure. I really

[4:04:41] don't have that much confidence that they will. Um so the other thing uh when you look at GLW here uh we go to the trade tab we look at the expectations trade tab we look at the expectations 134.4 for Vall in the front month $15

[4:04:56] expected move coming up on earnings right um now normally like I said in the earnings not even the past we can go back just you know last cycle uh probably up until June of this of of uh yeah probably up until June of this year

[4:05:12] names playing them to the upside playing calendar calls and I know a lot of it's still high volatility yeah but they were moving and Intel was the main example of that I'm about this many times and typically in these names I

[4:05:26] times and typically in these names I would go sell at the expected move 160 and buy at the expected move. Now that's a buck 58 that's actually pretty cheap. That's actually in the wheelhouse of what I like to do. But I just told you I

[4:05:38] on earnings like that, right? I just don't see it. And now I could play to it. You could also do these expected moves to the downside as well. I could play for 120. I could do that. Um, but again, I haven't seen the huge downside

[4:05:53] Now, this is definitely possible. I mean, I could play for this, but I decided to just do something a little bit different because I do have things like um, you know, right now I have an SMH

[4:06:06] kind of tested to the downside as we speak, as you would imagine, in most of these names. And I have a couple of these across the book. I decided it's time to sell some upside in one of these type of names. Now again, warning, it

[4:06:20] now they're part of the basically the fiber optics on the buildout for AI stuff. So, it's trading as I just showed you from the charts. Doesn't matter if it was always considered a glass company. It's trading like an AI related

[4:06:34] company and that's the way we're going to treat it. So, I decided to go to August actually because this is a trade I think fits the entire book and I term. I actually didn't even analyze doing in the near term. I mean, I could

[4:06:47] doing in the near term. I mean, I could look at the 145 one uh 150. So, this is actually also a really good one. I I could have done it here as well. Um, but I decided to go out to August just for that very reason. I decided I wanted to

[4:07:00] that very reason. I decided I wanted to um to to sell the 145 155 call spread in August. And I was a little bit aggressive on it, right? I could have aggressive on it, right? I could have gone 150 160 um to well, not hold on. I

[4:07:13] could have gone 150 160 as well. 315. And it's also another good spread to getting some pretty good volatility to the upside in this thing. Now, that's $10 away. Sure. Is that within the expected move? Of course, $15. Is that

[4:07:27] within the expected move for August? 100%. However, um this is one of those where I'm giving up the opportunity uh again, and I did this for $345, meaning

[4:07:39] my max loss would be uh $6.55. and I'm giving up this chance to lose 655 for the fact that maybe the AI trade starts to turn back around and some of those AI names work out again. So, this is kind of another way where you would say

[4:07:55] this is a call sale. It fits my book for volatility wise. It gives me some extrinsic, but it's kind of against the rest of the book into the long side. So, some of those other things that if if for some reason Corning goes down on

[4:08:08] names are going to be down as well. and I'll at least be able to win on this couple of different terms, but I still, like I said, I feel August is just high enough. So, this is a kind of earnings adjacent play, if you will. It's going

[4:08:21] to the VA is going to come in some earnings. I mean, again, look at where, let's go out to um, you know, a few months out. Let's go out to March next year. You see, volatility really is in the 70s. That's really where volatility

[4:08:33] is. So, for some reason, say this trade, let's look at an analysis here. uh let's let's look at an analysis here. uh let's say tomorrow and and and again I I I will say I don't think volatility is going to come in to the 70s right away

[4:08:46] but this near-term volatility could come into like 85, right? So let's just say volatility gets down to let's call it 82 for now, right? Say it gets down to this 82 range, which we're seeing for November and December. Um and then let's

[4:08:59] just, you know, have a day or so go by. Let's go to uh the curve here. What am I doing? Uh yeah, go to the curve. Let's take a look at this tab.

[4:09:11] Do some analysis. And again, um thing obviously this is a simple call spread. It's one of the simpler trades you'll see me do and some of us do. Again, I just want it to fade and and

[4:09:24] we've seen that when I've said inside down on some of these earnings move for doing it again today. They didn't have earnings, but they basically pre-announced. Um Tesla obviously was down. Google was down. More of the just

[4:09:38] you've seen recently, they've kind of faded to the downside. And that's that's than anything. It's just the trend to to stay in effect, right? So, if this fades Volatility will come in a little bit as well. That that that works. If it goes

[4:09:54] up, yeah, you know, I have a chance of of losing, but I gave myself some time. August. I did give myself some time so that uh it doesn't immediately go in the some reason or another. Maybe I'm wrong. I mean maybe, right? Like it's possible.

[4:10:09] Intel went up on earnings. That one did go up initially after hours and then the and it traded through 90 whatever, right? Like it traded through 98 97. As a matter of fact, it's still falling now. You can look at earnings uh post

[4:10:23] earnings Intel and this has been the chart and honestly this is kind of my guide for what I think might end up happening with with Corning with GLW. I mean similar type of deal again this was this was one where maybe it was going to

[4:10:36] buck the trend on earnings and it was up after hours. We saw it trading $112 stock closed 100 that day. Matter of fact, stock closed 95 that day. it went uh back up over a 100 and then the went to 112 and then the very next day it

[4:10:50] ended up fading it. That's kind of the same way I see Corning doing it. So that's why I went out to August again. Um you could you could cut this up a couple different ways if you're positioned just like me. I mean, you

[4:11:02] looking back and I'm thinking about it, I probably should have done this expiration as well. Um, just to do a near-term play, but you know, when you could have been smarter. I could have definitely done, but now that I'm

[4:11:17] anyway. So, I did two of them. I like the idea of being short something. And again, these are defined risk trades. I know exactly how much I'm willing to lose here. And I also know that if for some reason Corning goes up on earnings,

[4:11:31] I got plenty of names in the portfolio that are going to rise on earnings as well in Corning. Um, SanDisk will probably likely turn around. I just did a a call butterfly in there today. Micron already have a call Butterfly.

[4:11:43] Um, so there's plenty of tech names. SMH is another one. EWI is another one where mostly heavy on the short put right now because the stock is falling. So that's how I'm looking at it. I I I I I uh you know I I luckily have this advantage

[4:11:57] where I get to watch the market every single day. I do watch it uh throughout and I love my job but I'm able to see these patterns and see these trends and also try to balance it out such that if I'm wrong this is I'll be able to win on

[4:12:12] think that's one of the ways you can balance out a book. So, I think I'm going to maybe in the next couple of days here kind of show you guys how a book can be a little bit balanced out such that um you know, you're not going

[4:12:25] least that's the way I've learned how it works. Like you can't try to win on we call like a little bit of a sacrifice so that you can win on the bigger things the ways you need to think about hedges, if you will, if you want to consider

[4:12:41] kind of a hedge in the portfolio. this GLW trade that we're putting on now because it's one where if I lose on it, I'm going to be winning in other trades in the portfolio, right? Um, now again, I know it's a it's a it's a very ugly

[4:12:56] area. You've seen the stock fall through uh 145 here, and it's it's really not looking that great. This is an area where possibly you see somebody try to come and pick up shares. Somebody, meaning the crowd, the sentiment has

[4:13:08] been so negative. Maybe they come and try and buy this up after earnings. for it because again, I got plenty of other things in the portfolio that are going to work. So, GLW is the trade of the day here, uh, for for me. Short call

[4:13:23] spread. Again, a very simple trade here. It's earnings vault. It's pretty high. I sold August, which is 90 V. I also decided to sell the nearer term in the decided to sell the nearer term in the actual earning cycle for 145 V. And um I

[4:13:36] think the August will come into probably uh high 80s uh low 80s I would say 82 83 volatility and that's kind of the way it'll play out inside the down but we'll see what happens. Now we're going to go to Mike Butler for his trade of the day.

[4:14:24] easy it is. >> It's a very quick, light platform. >> and with one or two clicks, you can be anywhere on the platform.

[4:14:36] >> Being able to see graphically where your profit and loss zones are. Whether it's a pool, a puddle, or a sea, you can navigate your way out of it with the safety platform. So, I love that you guys have the most unbelievable customer

[4:14:50] >> Email support, call support, get through right away. make changes to the platform to make it better. In fact, I've never seen anything like it in any corporation in the United

[4:15:04] it in any corporation in the United States.

[4:15:24] here. E- Mini is down 4 and a half, NASDAQ down 150. And uh it's been an interesting day to say the least. You've got the market selling off after a big

[4:15:36] open uh this morning with the crude oil markets sliding aggressively down 7 and a half points uh 7 and a half percentage points down 6 and a half points here. Uh it just seems like markets are turning red even with crude oil turning red. And

[4:15:51] I think it's interesting because we've got so many tech stocks, so many crazy happening over the next couple of days. And you've got a CME uh Fed watch tool that is giving us a 30% probability that we get a 25 basis point hike. And that

[4:16:07] is uh really interesting because over the over the last let's say three or four interest rate decisions, we've had basically a 99% chance that we are getting whatever the decision is and a 1% chance that there's a surprise. Right

[4:16:22] now we're leaning a lot more towards that 30% mark uh at least right now with two days to go. So we'll see if that changes over the next couple of days. changes over the next couple of days. But I think uh given the uncertainty

[4:16:35] with the interest rate decision that could be spooky the markets a little bit but historically speaking I mean they don't want to create a market surprise because that can create volatility in the markets and reactions in the markets

[4:16:48] which uh isn't necessarily the Fed's prerogative. But we'll see. 70% chance we get uh no hike and we just stay where we're at. But nonetheless, my trade of

[4:17:00] we're at. But nonetheless, my trade of the day is in QQQ. So, I've I'm going to be doing a lot of these individual earnings reports. Uh I think when it comes down to the implied volatility in the weekly cycle and some low implied

[4:17:14] volatility in the monthly cycles like you're seeing in Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft. I'm going to be individual uh individually exposed to those names, but QQQ into this sell-off has given us a lot of implied volatility and I wanted

[4:17:30] to take advantage of that in just kind of a holistic way. My general assumption is that given the weakness in the market, given the volatility overseas with crude oil chopping around here like crazy, and even just the fact that we

[4:17:43] crazy, and even just the fact that we opened up 60 points in the E- minis, 350 points in the NASDAQ, and now we're net down in those products, I think gives you a little foreshadowing into the weakness of the market or at least uh an

[4:17:56] inability for some of these stocks to really move to the upside in a big way. I'm sure we'll have some products that do, but it just feels like this market is weak and it's more about like how much capex is there and how how inside

[4:18:12] earnings announcements or how much are we going to sell off in some of these tech stocks. Uh we've been seeing it intraday in Micron down 45 points now. intraday in Micron down 45 points now. Huge intraday reversal here uh in Micron

[4:18:26] and then you look at SanDisk 2 down 150 points. We opened at 1450 in SanDisk and points. We opened at 1450 in SanDisk and now we're sub300. So almost a 200 point slide intraday in SanDisk and same thing in Micron here. Uh basically a 50 60

[4:18:44] point slide here from the open to where we're at right now. So, QQQ, we're at right now. So, QQQ, I did this downside uh trade here where I am buying an 11-day cycle and selling the 4day cycle. So, I went out and I

[4:18:59] bought the 670 inside the expected move quite a bit here. Uh but just around $1,000, that's where I was looking. And if you look at the implied volatility structure, and really the the main focal point of this trade is the short option.

[4:19:13] So, I sold the 660, which is right at the orange bar expected move, which puts you at around a 25 delta, 20 delta, somewhere around there. I usually just sell an option, I want to go to that orange bar expected move or around

[4:19:25] there. 660 is a nice uh round number. And then I bought the 11day 670 to create this diagonal spread. My total debit on this position uh if we look at

[4:19:39] QQQ in the positions tab, was 600 bucks. So, I've got a 10point wide diagonal spread that I bought for $600 and there's almost $400 of exttrinsic value in the short option that I sold. So, if we do end up selling off through Friday

[4:19:55] or by Friday down to 660, that would be about a 20 point sell off from here in the cues, that would be a really weak earnings report for this week. Uh, but even if we don't, I've got $400 of premium in the short option that's going

[4:20:08] to go to zero by Friday. I've got $1,000 of long premium that I bought uh in the of long premium that I bought uh in the 11day cycle. And when it comes down to the the value prop for this trade, paying $600 for a 10point wide diagonal

[4:20:21] spread, I know right off the bat I can make $400 on the difference there. So intrinsic value long option to short option is $1,000. I paid $600 for it, which means my max profit intrinsically is about $400 $400 there. But I also

[4:20:37] know that my short option is going to go to zero exttrinsic on Friday. So there's to zero exttrinsic on Friday. So there's another $385. I would lose exttrinsic value my my 11-day long that I've purchased. So keep that in mind. But I'm

[4:20:49] projecting that this max profit is probably somewhere around $5 or $600 because I can make uh up to $400 in intrinsic value just from the difference of cost and the width of the spread. But this exttrinsic value, my long option is

[4:21:04] currently trading for $1,000. By Friday, let's say it's trading for $400, $500. We get all the value out of the short option. I can hold on to that a lot of that extrinsic value in the 11day cycle. So really uh down really nice

[4:21:18] interesting way to play the downside here in the cues. And if you look at the uh dispersion of the premium here at 660 again, 370 bucks, almost $400 in premium for the 4-day cycle. in the 11-day cycle trading for $1,000. So much lower

[4:21:35] implied volatility in the 11day relative to the 4day. As you can see, 36% implied volatility reading in the 4-day cycle, which is reflective of all of the earnings in the tech stock sector that we are getting this week. And then a

[4:21:49] much lower implied volatility reading out 11 days where the the C's will be calm or perceived to be calm at that point in time. But either way, I'm not paying nearly as much in implied volatility value for the 11-day cycle

[4:22:02] relative to the 4day. So again, wanted to encompass all the earnings announcements that are happening this week. So I went out to the Friday session. 36% implied volatility. Big spike there. You can see it's the

[4:22:14] highest reading on this board. We go from 31 to 33 to 35 up to 36. And then on Monday, it drops down to the 20s, low 30s across the board next week. So 19 point and a 19 1/.5 point implied move in the 4-day cycle and a 27 point

[4:22:30] implied move over the 11-day cycle. And of course 11 days relative to four, more than twice the amount of time, almost three times the amount of time, almost three times the amount of time, but only seven points more in implied

[4:22:43] move. So 300% increase in time, 50% increase in implied volatility or implied move. That's the ratio or the the way that you look at these things or calendar spreads. So, I like the way this this trade sets up. We can take a

[4:22:58] look at it on the analysis page to give you a nice visualization here. Uh we can do it from the positions tab, of course, go to the analysis from there. And then, click this button. You can show the theo or expiration. The Theo is where I want

[4:23:13] or expiration. The Theo is where I want to go for this one because uh this is uh really going to be an exttrinsic value trade plus intrinsic value of course. But whenever you have a diagonalized trade or a calendarized trade, you want

[4:23:25] to be looking at Theo because your long option having more extrinsic than your have to be using Theo because extrinsic uh expiration risk doesn't really apply if you assume uh that you know you're

[4:23:39] It's a pure extrinsic value trade. a calendar spread is anyways but diagonal spread here. Let's go through the motions. Let's go to Friday and that'll

[4:23:51] bring us to the 31st. You can see we get this big spike in premium uh possibility here. However, we have to crush implied volatility. Uh if I go to Friday, this 4day uh cycle I don't really have to move because when I move this to the

[4:24:05] 31st, it assumes that the short option goes to zero exttrinsic value and it's worthless. If I go to the 30th, you'd have to make an adjustment for implied volatility. So, let's bring this down five percentage points. We'll bring it

[4:24:19] down to 30%. And then this back month here, if you wanted to be conservative, let's bring it down 5 percentage points. Bring this down to 25%. You can see a lot of these back months, uh, these expiration cycles that are

[4:24:31] further dated than the one I'm in are around the mid 20s, 27, 28%, and then you go really far out in time, you can see 25s. So, I like to bring this down safe and give myself a conservative view of this trade. But Thursday, if we get a

[4:24:46] 5% crush in the 4day and a 5% crush in the 11day, again, we're going to get, you know, $500 out of this thing if we get a sell-off. But let's push it to Friday. And we will keep this analysis the same. This assumes I get all of that

[4:25:00] short premium out of the uh short option here. My long option appreciates in value on the downside move here. This is showing me a max profit, a theo max profit of about $800, which goes in line with the the uh things I was talking

[4:25:14] about earlier. Paid $600 for this. It can have a $400 profit in intrinsic value if it goes completely in the money. But I also know my short option option is going to hang on to exttrinsic value. So if we do end up going right to

[4:25:29] my short strike at 660, I'm going to make $400 on the short premium that exists right now. I'm going to make $400 on the intrinsic value move to the going to have a little bit of exttrinsic in it, which is how you arrive at this

[4:25:44] almost $900 max profit uh to the downside. But if we get some moves to the downside over the next couple of days, I would just take it off. If we move in the money at any point in time on this trade, I would just take it off.

[4:25:57] uh because the further down you go, if you do end up getting a continued actually tapers off here. And that's because the ma the most I can make from this short option is the exttrinsic

[4:26:10] value and the most I can make from the spread is the intrinsic value. So if we do continue to slide and slide and slide, my profit actually goes down the money spread that I bought and my short option loses all extrinsic value,

[4:26:24] what's remaining is my long options exttrinsic value. So that's why like if you have a lot of value out of the short option in terms of exttrinsic value, a nice profit anyways if you get any kind of move to the downside. But that

[4:26:39] helps explain this drop off in P&L where you might imagine, shouldn't this be going up? Not necessarily because if you lose exttrinsic value in your long option, that's bad for this trade. So, all things considered, let's talk about

[4:26:53] uh management. So, I sold this short option for $400 almost. This this is really going to be the manipulation factor is if if we get $400 out of this option or let's say the market rallies and all of these earnings are great,

[4:27:10] that short option is going to lose a ton of value very quickly. So, if you're making uh defensive adjustments, I would be sure to keep an eye on that short options value. If this $400 goes down to 50, it's not hedging me anymore. It's

[4:27:24] just hurt me if we get a reversal to the downside, which we just saw today. So, $400. If this goes down to 50 cents or so, I'll just buy it back. I might consider rolling it out to Monday or Tuesday or even Wednesday, but I want to

[4:27:39] keep at least a little bit of a diagonal nature here with my long option 11 days out. So, my short option, I wouldn't go further than the 9-day cycle. I probably if I'm really trying to be aggressive with profit potential. But still, let's

[4:27:54] take a look at the value difference. If I were to buy this back at the 660 strike 4 days out and move it to Monday, what's the current premium offered for that move? Okay, really not that much at all. So, this really helps emphasize the

[4:28:07] fact that there's only a 70 difference between the 4-day cycle and the 7-day cycle. And these are $400 options. So, this tells you everything you need to know. The weekend risk is not what's being priced in here. It's the earnings

[4:28:20] risk for this week. And that's why the Friday and Monday uh options are trading for a very similar value. On the flip side, let's say you wanted to go really cheap with this type of trade. I actually don't mind long the 7-day short

[4:28:34] the 4day because long the 7-day short the 4day. If we flip this, it's a uh 70cent debit. If you were to buy the 7-day and then sell the 4day at the same

[4:28:49] strike, you've got an a 75cent debit. If we go to the curve analysis and just isolate this trade, uh we've got, let's see here, the expiration Theo. There you see here, the expiration Theo. There you go. So, if we were to bring this to uh

[4:29:03] can make a couple hundred bucks here. But even uh if we go to the 30th and assuming these are going to move in a similar manner, you can make 200 bucks

[4:29:15] on this trade to the downside. So this is another cheaper alternative if you uh don't want to take that much risk with the downside diagonal. The difference here with a calendar spread is that you have neutral uh premium profit potential

[4:29:28] downside, you can take losses. If it goes far to the upside, you can take losses. So the window's a little bit more narrow there. But let me know what the YouTube channel if you haven't

[4:29:40] day. It's on the follow feed. If you have any questions, you can reach out to me at tradermikey B. But we're going to pass it along to E with the next trade pass it along to E with the next trade of the day.

[4:29:57] we're actually going to be bringing in Chris Bretcher from Trading S TV. We're going to get his thoughts on his trade of the day. uh see what he's looking at Chris? Great to have you. >> Hey there. Uh thanks for having me on.

[4:30:11] >> sound great. How are you doing? >> Oh, good. Um is uh I want to show two that I thought you'd like. >> Okay. >> Uh I thought I'd start with one of my favorite trader tricks uh is when

[4:30:26] something has earnings coming out, uh looming earnings and it's a choppy market. So, uh, if you want, I'm happy to share my screens and show you what we're talking about. >> Let's see if that works for you. Can you

[4:30:40] see it? >> No, absolutely. Not quite. Uh, do you and I can pull up real quick and so we can get that for you. >> Uh, sure. That, uh, Hilton is uh, one of them I'm watching in here. Uh, let's

[4:30:53] >> What ticker is that? Hi. What would be the guess there? Uh, >> HLT. That's okay. Let's see. What do we got going on in there? All right. I'm on a daily time frame. Does that work? >> No, I'm using a one minute, believe it

[4:31:06] speaking my language. There we go. We'll go down to the one minute. So, basically what we're doing is one of my favorite trader tricks is if the market pulls up a stock that has looming earnings, uh, at least once during the day, it has a

[4:31:23] habit of going back to unchanged. So, the key in there is not to short just the exact opening. It works a lot better if the market pulls it up. The stock has a habit of waffling down instead of the other way around. If the market opens

[4:31:37] down, it just doesn't work as well. Right. So, you'll see in Hilton that it opened up at almost 332, but I'm not good enough to short at 332 cuz I'm not sure if it's going to 340 first. Right? >> So, you wait for that first down tick

[4:31:52] and then you initiate the short. The reason being then you have the back stop at the high. So if you shorted at 330, you have the back stop at 33150. And as you see in there, it came back to unchanged. It doesn't mean it's closing

[4:32:06] unchanged. It just means at one time during the day, it'll go to unchanged. So we shorted, you know, I don't uh like I said, I don't think you can see my chart, but >> is it that that beautiful colorful with

[4:32:20] >> Yeah, >> beautiful chart we got there, Chris. >> It works great. Yeah, we can see it. Um, so just so you know, I did not short up so just so you know, I did not short up here. I shorted 329 on that little blip

[4:32:34] and then I told everybody I'm putting in a a uh to buy it unchanged, which is a little cocky. I actually put it at 32650, a little above it. So we scalp two and a half points and that was never in

[4:32:48] say, well, what happens if you were wrong? How would you know? Well, if I shorted right there and it got above the back stop like in this area, yeah, I would have given up, but it never went

[4:33:01] against us. So, that was uh that was pretty exciting for it to go right where we wanted. Yeah. >> Um the other thing in there, and it's on your platform, it's on everybody's platform. We use an ATR trailing stop

[4:33:15] >> and as you see, it crossed under it and uh but we played the unchanged. You could have played when it crossed back over it. So it works with a 20 moving stop. >> So when you when you say back stop

[4:33:29] referring to for for us watching right now? >> Um, basically when something I like to short on the way down or buy on the way short on the way down or buy on the way up. So basically if we initiate on the

[4:33:42] way down it le and we have a trigger like a bare flag or a break of a like a bare flag or a break of a triangle we have the uh prior move as your back stop. So I love to have a back stop. Okay.

[4:33:55] >> and and that's something that where you can kind of then gauge that risk versus least let you know when your trade idea is invalidated. Would you say? >> Yeah. In fact, uh, what's interesting is that red arrow, I traded smaller than I

[4:34:11] wanted to because I didn't have as good a back stop. If I would have gotten it off right at that arrow right there, I would have traded much bigger because it could have been a tighter stop. >> Okay. So, the closer that you're able to

[4:34:25] >> Okay. So, the closer that you're able to enter near your invalidation point, the that risk is reduced a little bit more from a a range standpoint. >> Exactly. is uh so right there your range is probably 60 cents here. If I was

[4:34:40] wrong, heck, I might not have admitted I was wrong for a buck and a half. was wrong for a buck and a half. >> So that's why I uh I traded smaller on that initiation. >> Gotcha. A lot of volatility. Yeah.

[4:34:54] >> Yeah. It's uh now Hilton doesn't trade as much as let's say an AMD or an MU. And I'll go into MU now. But uh the the point is that you also have to sort of be realistic of the volume of the stock. So you can't trade like a,000 shares.

[4:35:10] It's just not that liquid. You can trade a 100red, you can trade 50. I mean, you make two and a half points on 50 shares, you know, it's 125 bucks is not bad, >> Um in there. And so that was a trader trick about a reverting to unchanged um

[4:35:26] in there. It's really neat that that kind of stuff works. Now, you might say, "How about Sherwin Williams? Why didn't that one work?" And you'll see if you didn't have the same kind of structure. But let's just say that you initiated on

[4:35:43] this break right here. I mean, that's okay. You had a little trend line there. I like those trend line breaks. But the point is on a daily chart, it didn't have the same kind of structure. What I mean by that is that's

[4:35:58] really all over the place. When Hilton was at good resistance, I'll show you. So there's the Hilton and if you put a 50 moving average, it's right at it. So

[4:36:10] that just seemed like a good riskreward when it's at its 50 anyway and at all these resistance. Sherwin Williams was a lot sloppier. So we didn't go near it. But you might say, well, why were you even looking at Sherwin Williams? Sounds

[4:36:24] silly. We were just having a watch list and seeing what stocks were up the most >> right? >> So, really simplistic, but that's how we >> right? And is there any specific like market cap names you like to look at

[4:36:39] whenever you trade these volatile uh names, the flow market cap? Any any type of criteria you have for these type of trades? Um, usually with earnings, I'm looking at the ones I'm used to, the Marriotts, the Hilton, the AMDs, the

[4:36:53] Marriotts, the Hilton, the AMDs, the WDC's. Um, now on uh sometimes we'll look at things that are relatively obscure if they have unusual option activity. And we've seen with earnings, I don't take many shots in earnings. I

[4:37:06] think there's more than enough money to be made before the o uh you know before earnings and then something like IBM after earnings. Uh and you don't have to be uh bet and be the gambler. You can be the house. What do I mean by IBM is IBM

[4:37:22] pre-announced. One of my favorite trades also is when a stock pre-announces, it's probably not going to do much on earnings. So you can do volatility plays >> which work beautifully in uh in IBM. It's basically unchanged over 3 days. Or

[4:37:38] if it opens down even after a pre-announcement uh in the actual earnings, not the pre-announcement, you can go to a pre-announcement, you can go to a short-term chart, which we did to time a

[4:37:51] long idea. So maybe not down here because you're not sure where it would stop, but when you got that structure, in fact, we call this a Stewie pattern, an inverse head and shoulders. When if you sort of

[4:38:05] highlight it like that, >> I see Guy, >> right? The Stewie pattern. I I love it. And and and kind of seeing that bottom being put

[4:38:17] confidence to at least let you know you're not catching the falling knife. It's giving you some type of structure to work off of to even be able to at least take a confident loss. Right. >> Exactly. And a lot of people I train

[4:38:31] >> Exactly. And a lot of people I train anybody from, you know, new uh just new at this and advanced. And one of my favorite things is the tighter the pattern, the tighter the stop. And the tighter the stop, the more likely you

[4:38:44] are to at least attempt to do a trade to get your feet wet, looking at for the rest of today, Chris? What else you got on top of mind for today?

[4:38:56] >> Yeah, sure. Um, MU is another one and this is an OP same kind of idea with a trader trick. Usually when a stock closes on a low, it has a habit of testing the low at least once from the day before barring any news and there

[4:39:11] was no news on Micron. I know that oil was down and all that because of Iran, but I call it the stuck trade. Okay, >> so the stock trade is if you if it closed on its low almost on its absolute low on Friday and it opens up, everybody

[4:39:27] >> right? >> So the idea is sure you could say, well, you know, maybe that doesn't work and it goes up to here. The key in here is then

[4:39:39] to take a shortterm chart to initiate based on your theory. So, if you go to a one minute chart of micro and technology, not right now, I'm talking about on the opening, you'll see that ATR trailing stop, forget about the 50,

[4:39:54] but take in here that average true range trailing stop and you'll see the second it got under that, that was it. I mean, that was good for 50 points, >> right? >> And that's another thing is uh the law

[4:40:08] of twos. So if you're new at this, you could go and trade two shares. Commissions are, you know, tiny. >> Yeah. On equity. >> So you could take I mean two shares making 50 bucks would be beautiful.

[4:40:20] there, Chris. I love it. >> Yeah. And the key in there also is same thing. The second it broke, I mean, you're talking about a twopoint stop to make 50 bucks. I mean, that's pretty impressive. Now, you might say, why too?

[4:40:36] Because a lot of times on the way down, you take a profit on half. It's whether you take a profit on half. It's whether it's two shares, 20, 200, 2,000, but you take a profit on half. So then you're working with the house money. So I've

[4:40:49] just seen that if you're new, >> the smaller size you do, the more >> So Chris, what's your preference? Right. Let's let's say you enter with two call it. Let's say you get an initial move in your direction and let's say you

[4:41:04] contracts. So you take half your size off. Do you like to move your stop loss closer? Is it moving with the ATR? Do you move it to break even? How do you like to tamper with the stop loss after you scale out some of your position?

[4:41:19] >> Yeah, that's a good question. Is basically that because this is based on the average true range. So we're using nine periods and 2.9 width. So, if this goes down too fast, the ATR trailing stop gets too uh wide. So, then we'll go

[4:41:35] to like a 20 moving average and we'll put a 20 moving average because you need some point of reference to be able to trigger your stop. Unfortunately, uh it doesn't seem to be working, but that will be closer to the price.

[4:41:52] So, usually once it goes in our direction and it starts going fast, then we'll go in there and use a move. There it is. You 9 or 20 something something

[4:42:04] to trigger. So, heck, yeah, you might have gotten out. You could see as it crossed it stayed way under. You might have gotten out there, but still that's >> Yeah. >> So, you could take off all the other

[4:42:17] stuff. You could take off the ATR trailing stop and just the nine. And now you might say, well, how about up here? Well, you had that trend line break. So, contact, the better, >> right?

[4:42:31] >> So, I was combining that with the ATR trailing stop, but once you initiate, then I'll go to a a move and average to time my exit. So, you might have been out of half then. >> Before you go here, Chris, I appreciate

[4:42:44] you laying out laying all that out for us very detailed. Before you go here, is forward to this week in terms of earnings or any other binary events? I know we got a lot on the table for us. >> Yeah, I'll show you. I actually put this

[4:42:56] >> you got? >> Is I was showing the diamond formation >> Is I was showing the diamond formation in the NDX and I actually put in that diamonds are a bear's best friend. I'll show you what we're talking about here.

[4:43:10] Is >> this diamond formation? So now the thing is around midterms, usually the midterm, you see the real uh uh selloff in let's you see the real uh uh selloff in let's say late August or Jul uh or September,

[4:43:24] about. I can take off all of this and show this diamond and show this real quick. I know I have to go, but there's your diamond formation. And as you see, the key is the break and maybe the back test, but

[4:43:38] done it yet, >> right? So the key is the lower the NASDAQ goes, the more likely this breaks to the downside. And the last thing, go

[4:43:50] and look at the NDX in relation to uh actual dates. That's June 10th. So it's definitely I mean I call it beyond the point of no return that it's so far under June 10th, it makes the probability the S&P is going to go to

[4:44:06] June 10th at the minimum, which is another 150 points. looking like we're getting a little bit of a rotation, a little bit of change of character or behavior on a lot of these larger markets here. So again,

[4:44:18] Appreciate the trade ideas that you've given us here. We'll definitely be sure to circle back around. Um and with that being said, Chris, we'll see you here in >> Yeah, that sounds great. Uh thanks again for having me on.

[4:44:30] >> Thank you. And with that being said, guys, um I I that smaller time frame because that's exactly the type of time frames that I like to find a lot of my trade ideas off of as well. So, it'll be nice to circle

[4:44:43] on some of these other moves that we're going to be getting. I have a little bit something on the one minute chart for us to look at like Chris did right there. NASDAQ on the day. It's looking like we're still trying to sell off a little

[4:44:56] fiveminute chart, we can get a better idea on our areas of interest. Maybe I can zoom out just a little bit more. Uh try to find some of these levels that we had plotted out. Maybe it was on QQQ or NQ. Um but the market is looking to

[4:45:11] potentially take another new low here today soon. And uh we're watching this level. I'm not sure why this isn't populating, but we'll give us a populating, but we'll give us a reference point right here. 27,900.

[4:45:24] Things are getting a little bit more volatile. Uh volatility is expanding a Wednesday. More earnings throughout the week. Uh but the trade of the day is we have on here. We get more volatility in micro NASDAQ. We'll take a trade here

[4:45:40] together if we get it. What is it almost 1:00? It's 1 1:15 Eastern time. So we're out of the lunch hours, you know, in Eastern time. So we could get a a little missed it on the day, we got a little bit more long delta on in this oil

[4:45:55] product. We used USO to get some more long delta exposure over there. This is it for about $3 and some change. It was be the debit we paid on this trade. It's a very directional trade. There's 9 days

[4:46:09] we're just looking for is some type of retracement pop to the upside. Oil is gap down in oil and then we had a continued sell off in the market open today. Seems like most things in the market is selling off right now. Um but

[4:46:22] in oil. Uh, I want to take advantage of some long delta. I'm not going to risk trade over here. Uh, maybe we'll risk about half, which is going to be about looking for, it should be a pretty nice directional move because it is a little

[4:46:37] call that we had purchased expiring August 5th. Um, but that's going to be the move we're going to keep an eye on, right? Uh, I I was making the point earlier where just because you have your max loss doesn't mean you have to trade

[4:46:49] until you realize that max loss. So sometimes if you're down 150 bucks, you recover. You could just cut your losses at 150 bucks. You're down about 50% on the position. I rather do that than take max losses. Uh and another thing about

[4:47:03] and draw down too much if I don't have to. Um and I make that point because we about four or five days ago for one of the trades of the days. Uh we sold an we sold a naked put out of the money expiring August 21st. And last week or

[4:47:18] last Friday, we were down about 225, 230 bucks on this overall position. You can see today we're up almost 200 bucks. We were up a little bit more earlier today. Uh but of course, Oracle continues that downsliding action we've been seeing.

[4:47:31] but because we caught a little bit of a falling knife. Sometimes it may it may change my overall sentiment and how confident I am in a position like this lower lows, I don't want to sit in a position where it feels like I'm

[4:47:45] catching a falling knife because I think something we don't touch on too much I think by sitting in too many positions with too much draw down and 100% affect think can then in turn affect your execution and the confidence levels that

[4:48:00] just wanted to make a point that we're not going to risk the entire debit that we paid on this trade. If we get down to 150, whatever it might be, we will cut that loss um and redeploy that capital elsewhere because markets like NASDAQ,

[4:48:13] the S&P 500, these ETFs, these legacy markets, they almost have opportunities every single week, not every single day, but almost always on a weekly basis, we there's not a specific underlying outside of the indices that is offering

[4:48:30] an attractive opportunity to us, um we can always sit on our hands, be patient, a trade whenever we have more confidence and conviction uh in a specific trade. So with that being said, our trade of the day is going to be oil. We have some

[4:48:45] long delta on in there. Uh I like to use USO to get some exposure to that market. Uh, but I'm just going to quickly pull up uh the actual oil futures uh to give volume profile was playing out. You can see 70% of the trading activity on this

[4:48:59] entire move up and the pullback that we've seen. 70% of the trading activity has been between 89.85 on oil. We'll mark that off. 89.85 on oil. Uh and the bottom of that one standard deviation move, which is known

[4:49:14] as our value area low, is 7753. Um, so we have a pretty decent range pull back near that point of control, which gave me a little bit more confidence to get on some long delta. Uh, if we continue to sell off near this

[4:49:26] be where we're going to manage our position because then we have the value area low or have a continuation to the downside. The only way that I see us actually continuing lower on oil um, and that story not panning out is if we get

[4:49:42] more time spent beneath that value area low. So other than that, we'll keep it these specific areas in the market. But it is nice to see we got that rejection off that value area high last week. And again, the logic behind these moves is

[4:49:55] the fact that the market spends about 70% of its time trading in value. Uh and the market spends less time trading outside of value, which also communicates to us that most moves trying most moves that try to attempt to

[4:50:09] break out of this value area high or this value area low are going to fail. about 70% of the time, right? Because that's where that's where the market is spending about 70% of its time. So, seeing a little bit more volatility, you

[4:50:22] too much of a surprise, but I am leaning bullish right now. Would love to see us high, right? I mean, if we get back to that value area high, we pretty much closed the gap over the weekend on oil. Um, and that should put our contracts

[4:50:35] few days, that could put our contracts up at least 50%. Uh, because they do have a shorter time duration as well. So, we're not looking to hold those to it, so we will lose value on the contracts as each day passes. Um, so we

[4:50:50] are looking for a sort of a quick directional move whether we get stopped out fairly quickly or uh we take profit fairly quickly. It's not a trade that we're looking to sit in any type of consolidation. Something again we'll be

[4:51:02] directly inside this level of value and the market has already told us we're going to spend about 70% of our time inside this range. So, uh, we don't want I think that's one of the easiest mistakes to make, I think, whenever

[4:51:16] whenever we're paying a debit, we're expecting time is not on our side. So, we're expecting that move within a very specific time window. And if if you turn into a bag holder or you or you find out you have a tendency to be a bag holder,

[4:51:30] positions might eat you alive. And I think that's something that we could learn from some of those. So, I rather cut the loss than become a bag holder. I rather just realize the loss, redeploy the capital elsewhere instead of uh you

[4:51:42] know riding on the hope strategy which is just I feel like deteriorates your that place of hope you know what I mean which it happens right you trade things like Oracle this thing continues to slide to the downside has been crazy uh

[4:51:55] SpaceX I'm glad we did a defined risk trade on there so uh it's always nice to you're not feeling too confident either with SpaceX ticking down lower today trading at about 11027 right now a new low on SpaceX as we're still in the

[4:52:11] price discovery phase, I think you could say, for SpaceX because there we haven't rangebound yet. It's it's been a stair step lower. I almost thought I pulled up Oracle here for a second. These are cousins right now. They're absolutely

[4:52:24] Oracle's a little bit more expensive right now. What is Oracle trading at? Yeah, Oracle trading at what, 120. SpaceX right now trading at 110. So, Oracle is about 10 bucks more expensive than SpaceX. Um, but no, I mean, we have

[4:52:39] we have quite a few positions on right here. I'm really curious about the micro NASDAQ. We are out of lunch hours. We're we're seeing a little bit more volatility here. I'm hoping that we see continued downside, right? Because of

[4:52:51] because of the fact that I didn't catch the most the meat of this move on this account, it makes me want to be very patient for a potential long. So that's going to be my mindset into this next into the next few hours of today and

[4:53:05] because we haven't got any significant reversal on the day. I mean we tried to reversal on the day. I mean we tried to bounce you know off of 27,940s. about 100 points to the upside and then we sold quite and then we sold right

[4:53:19] back off. But I mean even this little retracement pop that we've seen here right this was 29 27,940. This is 28,180. That's almost like a 200 point move on just a tiny retracement pop. So the

[4:53:33] range that the market is experiencing right now can't be understated. And I an opportunity, we can use one micro. You know, if we feel a little bit more confident, we can use two micros. If we see a level that we want to for sure

[4:53:45] invalidation point, we can size up a little bit more, maybe use three micros. confident, the range that this market is offering right now is is actually insane. I mean, with one micro, you catch 200 points. It's $400 on one

[4:53:58] micro. That's a tiny position to make $400 off of. So, given the ranges that to size up, if anything, size down. And trader's best friend. Uh, right, volatility is opportunity, but at the

[4:54:10] same time, whenever the opportunity increases, the risk typically increases mind. If this market continues to sell off, would love to see us trade at One thing that you're going to realize is I'm such a stickler on location. Like

[4:54:24] Number one, number one. Number one. I don't care how bullish or convicted I convicted I am. If we don't get the trade at the specific point, at the area want to pull the trigger just because it's going to skew our riskreward. And

[4:54:38] we keep taking trades like that, the math isn't going to work out too well at the end of 50 trades, at the end of 100 trades, at the end of 150 trades. So, I where you want to pull the trigger on some of these trades is most important.

[4:54:52] It's better to just miss the opportunity and wait around for the next one. Um, so Would love to see us putting a new low. of traders right now thinking maybe this was a low and probably have a lot of

[4:55:04] low given the fact that, you know, we sold off what about 700 points to the downside from, you know, from the pre-market. So, you could imagine some right now. I might try and be one of those if we continue to make lower lows.

[4:55:19] it's nice that we're putting in a little bit of a range because if we end up use these levels that we're putting in right now as a potential price target uh around to that if we get some opportunities. Uh but the micro NASDAQ

[4:55:33] me right now. Again, as we downtick, volatility should should be expanding a little bit more there. Did we touch 20 today? Uh we're just shy of 20, right? pre-market? No, about an hour after the bell, uh, we were trading at 1992 on the

[4:55:49] volatility index. So, we're getting close to that 20 VIX. And once we pop advantage of selling a little bit more premium, right? You never know what you have until you don't have it anymore. And whenever we're trading at a 16 VIX,

[4:56:02] I just want to jump out this window sometimes. I'm not even joking. But, clustering a little bit more here. We got FOMC on Wednesday. More exciting Thursday. Qualcomm is going to be Wednesday.

[4:56:15] Some other pretty big names. So, I mean, I'm excited for it. But we'll keep an eye on this NASDAQ market. Again, lastly, if you're just joining us, we do contracts, both the sides of this trade are sitting out of the money right now.

[4:56:27] And just to pull up the options chain real quick, you can see uh last Friday we rolled our calls down a little bit more, collecting an additional 50 cents break evens after the exaggerated downside move and gap down that we got

[4:56:41] continue to pay attention to that one. Then again, on Oracle, if this one around I think this one we're going to cut around 200 bucks. Uh so again, we're not going to be risking the entire um debit we paid for this position. This

[4:56:56] one was a premium position. we sold this put. Um, so these are just those very key in on our risk a little bit more delta. That's going to be our trade for the day. But as always guys, um, I hope

[4:57:08] Thanks for joining us on these trades of to stay tuned for more amazing content coming on next. We will catch you guys coming on next. We will catch you guys here soon.

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[5:01:42] This is Futures Power Hour. Yes, a full one here for the next 60 minutes. TP is out today for the rest of the day. So Ilia and I get the 30-minute slot oldfashioned futures power hour here. Still Monday, July 27th, 2026. I'm Chris

[5:01:58] Veio. He's Ilia Spivac. Ilia, the markets today, what a puke from yesterday's open when we were on first call. S&P 500 just off the low 74.26, down 20 points now. It's only.3% but it was up by8 earlier. Your NASDAQ where we

[5:02:13] start the day with a 1.3 1.4% gain. The leader in the clubhouse is now the leader in the wrong direction. playing like your New York Mets here down 8/10en lowest levels that we've seen going back to that first week of May. Another day

[5:02:26] like this and we'll be at the lowest levels since late April. A lot has come off the board here. Of course, there's a lot of angst building up, not still down 6% today, but because we have the slew of earnings that are coming out

[5:02:39] >> Yes, sir. >> Uh we obviously have to break this down the technical perspective. There's obviously some narrative in play here too, but let's start with the volatility right now. Uh topsyturvy kind of day for

[5:02:53] volatility. We're only at 1930 here, but it's after we crashed in. VIX itself is sitting at 1941. So, whatever we gave up at the gap open, that was pretty much it for the week. Ilia, uh 1942 VIX isn't necessarily

[5:03:08] something to be scared of, but we're starting to get into the territory where little bit more interesting here. contextualize the VIX near 20 with the and macro. >> Well, I think this is the kind of thing

[5:03:25] where number one, you don't do technical analysis on the VIX. >> Of course not. >> Number this is not a thing you do. >> That was not what I was suggesting. Don't put that on me.

[5:03:37] >> Yeah. Let this be a postuluate for all time. Uh we do not uh do technical analysis on the VIX because if we were to line this up, obviously stocks are down a lot more than the VIX is up relative to their extremes, right? The

[5:03:53] VIX is up a lot less off its low than stocks are down off their highs. And this is why you don't look at this and you say, "Ah, well, the VIX is still low. That must mean everything is fine in the stock market." No, it's not.

[5:04:08] in the stock market." No, it's not. It's not at all. The NASDAQ has uh already taken out its uh critical support as of Friday. We were talking on support as of Friday. We were talking on um last call with um TP last week and

[5:04:24] I was saying, "Hey, the price action did this to me. I couldn't help it. I had to get a little more short on Friday." And I don't like putting positions on on Friday, as you and I have said many a time. But when the price action is

[5:04:40] telling you it's going to dump, what are you going to do? Not sell. So when we look at this, we say, "Okay, well, yeah, okay. The VIX is not doing a lot."

[5:04:52] Yeah. Okay. And what does that mean? think you have to be careful. I think just because people may not necessarily be out here hedging and so the VIX itself is a little bit

[5:05:08] lower than you might expect given what the price action is doing. You still have to remember that the price action is doing what it's doing price action is doing what it's doing and the VIX is is relatively contained

[5:05:21] because the price action is not doing elevator down. It's doing death by a thousand cuts. Oh, that's exactly right. It's just by a thousand cuts. I mean, recent days. It's been like two steps down, one step up, two steps down, one

[5:05:35] >> It's not an environment where you're going to expect the VI the VIX to be long. >> It's it's certainly painful. I mean, I'm here today because uh you know, by threshold for staying long, ES has been

[5:05:49] got that and coming into the week, I'm like, "Oh, I back up 7514, shabby. All right, stable. Not doing what I wanted to do, but stable still. All right. No, maybe not so much.

[5:06:04] >> Particularly as a NASDAQ on on on a 4 hour because I think this has been really clean. Um, you see that that retest on Friday of the kind of minor retest on Friday of the kind of minor shelf it broke. So, you can see where

[5:06:19] shelf it broke. So, you can see where the break is actually on on the 4 hour. You can go, oh, okay. So we came back, we retested the the prior support as resistance and going into Friday, we took out that big low, that big level

[5:06:35] under 20 uh 8,05. We already cleared it Friday. And so that was telling you this is how you're going to close out the week. You happen on the weekend. You don't want to know what the oil situation might be.

[5:06:51] president might say. He's over here threatening uh civilizational eraser and uh you don't want to know. Oh, you must have conviction.

[5:07:07] legendary comments here. >> We'll get there soon. >> When my children read the history books on this one day, uh yours and mine, do, >> I suppose. uh particularly as he

[5:07:23] Turkey and Israel here, which is quite funny. Anyway, Ilia, uh I suppose today is a good day for like a gut check um on a lot of things, particularly if you were leaning long like I was. So, we both been working off this perspective.

[5:07:36] rangebound, the short put spreads, the short call spreads, they'll both work. spreads are going to be in a little bit more trouble than the short call spread the candles here in some of these charts. We can get rid of this line for

[5:07:52] the Russell, but you know, we do get our try to get a bounce here off of the 50. >> This candlestick today, that's an ugly upper wick putting us a rejection above one week. You're going to see the same thing for your NASDAQ here where you try

[5:08:05] to rally through your one week today and you can't get to it. And it looks like we're going to get a cross of our one month below our 50-day momentarily. And then the S&P 500, same thing, right? We were trying to rally. We got above the

[5:08:18] one month and now instead of being above yesterday's high, we could be closing engulfing candle, right? We're completely overtaking everything from the Friday session. So, I don't know how one looks at this. I mean, momentum

[5:08:32] wise, there's no bullish momentum here. Stochastics are now oversold. There's no bullish momentum in this market as it as it were. So, you can was a bottom coming together here. There was no follow-through, failed,

[5:08:44] engulfing against the one months below the 50. >> It's ugly. >> It's ugly. It's ugly and can't justify anything good. >> And I mean, here's the thing. Why is it

[5:08:57] >> And I mean, here's the thing. Why is it ugly? I think the the example of Alphabet, which was the first hyperscaler to show us numbers this goround, I think that was really telling. And I

[5:09:11] wrote about it for the Tasty Live blog last week. you and I did a video on it. I think this really comes down to the idea that the AI buildout is starting to

[5:09:23] turn on the market where the market loved it and loves it no more and the and for very good reason. Well, remember early on throughout the 2010s, we heard

[5:09:35] from uh uh Jeffrey Epstein friends like Larry Summers about how it was we were there was >> Larry is just not going to he's just not >> Larry is just not going to he's just not going to shake that preamble with you.

[5:09:49] >> Not for me. I've been on that with him for like 15 years at this point >> before Larry thought he was Larry thought he was going to get to be fed >> Sorry, Larry. I'd like to think my tweets along the way have helped,

[5:10:06] >> I hope so. >> I, you know, granted given the help that they provided to the Ayatollah, maybe my tweets are a kiss of death. Um, Ilia, capex expenditures which were like a

[5:10:18] financial crisis 2010s, it's like, okay, when is the money going to be spent? And every company out there was, you know, a a little bit more protective of what bit more protective of what they were doing because they were like, well, you

[5:10:32] and we're still dealing with the financial crisis. We can't really risk expansion and then get caught in another downturn when that second dip of the recession ultimately comes, which was such a provocative narrative back in the

[5:10:45] 2010s. We were like I remember 10, 11, 12, probably going into 13 still because of the the Euro zone debt crisis, the debt downgrades. We were waiting for that second shoe to drop the double dip recession recession. So companies were

[5:11:01] >> I got 09 wrong because I was waiting for it. And thank heavens as last year I did not have my eggs in one basket and I was trading a diversity of assets. So I was

[5:11:13] able to have an okay year despite the fact that I did not see stocks rebounding like they did in '09. That was one of the biggest lessons, frankly, was one of the biggest lessons, frankly, uh that I've ever learned. Um I got 08

[5:11:28] uh that I've ever learned. Um I got 08 to this day. 08 with all the chaos was my best year in markets. Also, my first year and so, you know, stupid people leverage things, but then sometimes they get them right and then they end up with

[5:11:43] get them right and then they end up with a 300% year. Um, but in ' 09, I did not think that that was going to happen. And boy, did the stock market rebound aggressively in the midst of one of the most severe recessions that you could

[5:11:58] have imagined. And for and and the worst one in ages, one in ages, nothing like what happened in 2000 or um nothing like what happened in 2000 or um even sort of adjacent. I mean this was

[5:12:13] like threats of great depression type chaos and >> we we had occupy wall street as we had occupy wall street Europe was about to come apart. >> So the whole thing was just maximum

[5:12:27] >> So the whole thing was just maximum chaos and stock said yeah but incrementally speaking have we reached cheap enough to where the chaos is cheap enough to where the chaos is priced in. And so

[5:12:41] you could see all kinds of different things here, but if you look at the things here, but if you look at the current situation, there's just the market is telling you what you need to know in the price action. And that's

[5:12:57] really the lesson in both directions. You know, I I don't have something to do You know, I I don't have something to do here per se in ES. However, I mean, MEES probably gets closed out here today. Um, however,

[5:13:12] closed out here today. Um, however, Ilia, if this market is on a downward glide path here, um

[5:13:28] put butterfly here. It's kind of like pin the tail on the donkey. Um, pin the tail on the donkey. Um, let's just get this going there. Okay. uh you could see how narrow that cone of profit is, right? So the market would

[5:13:42] more for it, but your maximal profit here in this position would be if the S spalls to the expected move tomorrow, which is to the expected move tomorrow, which is around 7340, 7335. Just placing that

[5:13:56] single one day bet is going to cost you 40 bucks with a max profit potential 970. If at any point in time it falls at 7340, you close out the trade little bit of a wider birth and change your risk profile here. But if I'm not

[5:14:10] looking at catalysts on the upside the next I thought today we were on the territory you I'm like well I'm looking at like an S&P short iron condra I more? We what else is going to push it up? I didn't see the market going up

[5:14:23] anymore from this morning. >> Jer and and Mike took on the the super bare short the call spread long the put spread and obviously did handsomely well here. So tomorrow catalyst a few earnings reports

[5:14:36] >> nec for the Fed as well. >> The pregame for the Fed, right? So keeping all of that in mind, I'm actually going to go out a little bit more. 7330 73. We'll go 15 points wide in this risking 60 bucks, make 14

[5:14:51] >> Well, I mean, and the pregame for the Fed is important. Let's let's let's just be very clear that there's going to be conversation out

[5:15:03] there saying ah blah blah blah blah blah blah the Fed doesn't matter. There's a 40% chance almost that we're going to get a rate hike. Now I don't think we're >> We're not getting a rate hike on Wednesday but and that's my opinion it's

[5:15:18] your opinion market is pricing the probability at 40%. >> Has the Fed ever hiked rates when the Fed funds futures have implied less than a 50% chance?

[5:15:33] >> I couldn't tell you because I don't have all of that in my head right now going all the way back to the history of the Fed back to uh Jackal Island. But I can tell you I can tell you that if they're pricing a

[5:15:50] 40% chance and it's not going to happen, bunch of people are going to end up wrong and they're going to have to move things around. >> Yeah, that's the fun thing. When the market's 50/50, half the market's going

[5:16:03] >> That's the thing. So when it's like 955, you're like, "Okay, so 5% of people are and no one's going to care." >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, I think we're at the the decision point here for a lot of

[5:16:17] things. Um, you know, Russell, the 2850, 2875. I'm still above the short strike. for now. Who's to say what's actually going to

[5:16:29] pressure there to break yet. this other one 2925 2900 Ilia I don't care what unless we get a close back in the green today for the Russell

[5:16:43] I just think I'm going to take this off I just don't like sitting it's I know it's it's like 1% away from the short strike I'm just not liking the setup right now I know there's 35 a little bit more but

[5:16:55] if I'm taking off the one that's earlier the 25 one that's the strikes are a with it It's sitting below the 50, which is still the plan. I'm not upset with the entry, but the chart's looking like it's starting to keel over, and I don't

[5:17:09] like being long when the market looks like it's keeling over. I mean, I don't have anything on in the Russell. Russell. It's still kind of grinding at former

[5:17:22] resistance turn support at that former shelf. I'm not prepared to be a seller here just yet. just yet. I am so short the NASDAQ and the S&P and

[5:17:35] mainly the NASDAQ that frankly I've got the exposure that I need and I'm going to need to really get convinced to add any more because otherwise uh it's going any more because otherwise uh it's going to start looking like I'm on tilt.

[5:17:49] there the uh June 17th pivot low here near 2932. The 50day is 2933. The low 2932. I'm going to make a guess and say if 2930 breaks there is a little bit more

[5:18:05] makes the Russell so fascinating for today Ilia here um you know it is shakeout in the market semiconductors are the worst performing sector ETF tech is right there uh slew of energy names of course but then telecom

[5:18:21] go over to bonds and rate high gods shortly but before we do what's performing well here it's certainly a more defensive ensive flavor to the market today. Uh Staples, for example, consumer durables as a TP might say,

[5:18:34] that's on the upside. You also have this odd bit where XRT and XLY are trading a little bit firmer, but then you go to XLV and healthcare is popping up. And

[5:18:46] actually, that's XLF. I would say XLV. XLV here, Ilia, uh not for nothing, this would be the second highest close for the sector ETF in history. um you know as a play we've been looking holding on a little bit of a shot here

[5:19:01] at 17175 but it does feel like some of the individual equity exposure that I've been talking Proctor and Gamble Kimberly Clark KMBB uh CocaCola some of the more

[5:19:13] defensive stuff right that actually is panning out and working today so for the like the MEES position and the MNQ position what I have going in the staple stuff is more or less balancing it out. So, I may just be taking off some stuff

[5:19:29] going to keep going with the stuff that is here. So, I don't know if I'm going to have to redraw my entire approach right now. Um, but I'm taking note the the ones that have turned the corner the past few sessions,

[5:19:43] even as oil prices have just completely tanked here today, down 7.3%. tanked here today, down 7.3%. I took oil off today not because I don't believe that it could go back up because we could we could flip this whole thing

[5:19:57] we could we could flip this whole thing this whole conversation over again 8 n 10 however many more times. >> I'm sure we will be several times before midterm elections. >> Yeah. And so I don't know but I'd been

[5:20:10] long since July 7th. So, it was a great run and I'm just going to take my money. Thank you very going to take my money. Thank you very much. Um, and wait to get back in.

[5:20:27] first before we hop on over into the world of bonds because it feels like these two things are related. >> Yeah. Well, we're going to have to revisit that

[5:20:39] because something changed today. Uh, particularly with the SR3 contract. So Ilia, oil's down 7.3%. We are finding nice followthrough there. I think that you've been talking about recently is how the war trade as we knew it from

[5:20:52] late February onwards, something broke in that. When it exactly broke, you don't know. But the fact that gold stopped going down was a really big tell. More evidence to that point today. Oil's down 7%. Gold is not surging. The

[5:21:07] dollar is not tanking. Stocks are not going to the moon. And there's a little bit of weirdness in the uh rates channel as well. I'm going to point to the SR3Z6 contract for all this relief in oil here. And last week I was here saying

[5:21:20] Ilia everything happening with rate high gods is an oil story at least in the short term >> in the system which is part of the reason why I'm leaning short ZB. Now we have a day here today where oil's

[5:21:35] Now we have a day here today where oil's down 7% and the SR3Z6 the December contract is given up whatever upside it has. So hike odds cut odds have not

[5:21:47] >> 7% falling apart. This this this was this this was the uh soap box that I this this was the uh soap box that I climbed on top of last week.

[5:22:05] stocks and bonds diverge after the initial war trade washes out of the market. And you and I have a video up um talking about it and showing it. Uh I've

[5:22:17] talking about it and showing it. Uh I've got a a blog uh post up on uh tasty.com. Go check that out. uh that explains it with charts that marks these turning with charts that marks these turning points on the charts pointedly. Uh so

[5:22:30] you can check that out. Um we're going to put out a little carousel on LinkedIn if you follow us there um over the course today that summarizes what's course today that summarizes what's going on here. So that's coming. This

[5:22:45] has been kind of my hobby horse here uh basically since last week because increasing oil is not the inflation concern.

[5:22:58] >> that's what that that's that's that is this is today's action is further evidence to that point. Very >> AI is the inflation concern. Everybody thought AI was going to be deflationary. Maybe it will be one day when it's

[5:23:13] actually doing something, but the building of it is a giant amount of money getting poured on top of the economy. economy. >> Yeah, go ahead.

[5:23:31] >> Tell us something >> here. Uh go ahead, Master Control. What >> here. Uh go ahead, Master Control. What do you say? >> Maybe nothing. Are we going to keep talking? We'll keep talking. Um,

[5:23:46] Iliot oil 8277. So, you said you got out. Um, looking at the stuff at 21 days to expiration. Kind of thinking about this uh close. 6263. We're at 21. We're later. >> Yeah, I thought I I I thought, you know

[5:24:01] what? Why be greedy here? >> 707. >> Let's just take the money. 7071. Uh it was worth a little bit more last night. Profit's been cut in half a touch. I'm going to be greedy and hold

[5:24:14] on to that. The 98 97 uh put spread, believe it or not, still not making a working against each other quite frankly at this point. I think oil's going to know what? Take the money and run here on the 7071 as well. So we got those

[5:24:28] orders working. Thinking out at 52 days to expiration. Some of the stuff 6667. Yeah, still could work. Particularly in the context of the short iron condor the midpoint. I'm going to hold that, too.

[5:24:48] here. I'm going to take off one of these legs of the 6667. Um, and I only point that out because oil when we saw this big pull back in June, Ilia, what happened? It fell for four straight days and then kept going.

[5:25:01] So, maybe we get a little bit more of a pullback here. We can recenter strikes. pullback here. We can recenter strikes. We can uh uh re-engage if the price is right at this juncture. But for now, some things to do. Yeah. I mean, it's

[5:25:15] not like this market doesn't have things to do. Um take a look and put a horizontal line on this chart. Somewhere at the prior shelf, a little bit higher even right there. Now,

[5:25:29] this would be an interesting spot to stop. And maybe we're going to stop here. And if we do, and if I see on on a 4our chart, we got a little sideways squiggle and then a a turn with a higher high,

[5:25:45] and then a a turn with a higher high, let's go. I'm back. I'm right back. I'm right back in because this nonsense is going to keep going back and forth for who knows how long. As you were saying, I'm completely on board with that idea.

[5:25:59] This this isn't ending soon. This whole we're going to be there real quick back and forth. That's for the birds. You can do that in Venezuela maybe, but you're not doing that in the Middle

[5:26:13] East and you're not doing that with with Iran. What we've learned clearly is that when we go and do a quick thing in the Middle East, we turn around a decade later and go, "Wait, are we still doing this thing? What have we actually done?"

[5:26:29] >> Oh gosh, another Middle East war. It's been like going to do this? >> Happens all the time in my life. I first >> Happens all the time in my life. I first Gulf War, Iraq, Afghanistan, now this.

[5:26:44] >> I suppose I Okay, fair enough. I suppose you you could say uh Bush Senior did a you you could say uh Bush Senior did a relatively quick job of uh the first relatively quick job of uh the first Gulf War. Fair enough. But then we had

[5:26:58] to go and do it again. I you know this it's so interesting this this conversation about oil and its impact on rates because I was uh one of the guys I like to follow on Twitter uh goes at byfully

[5:27:11] >> Yeah. Yeah, >> he pointed out earlier today that with the one-year inflation swap printing below 2%, the Fed should pass on hiking this week. And that's, you know, a good point. The

[5:27:24] in one-year inflation swap forward has fallen from about 3.5%

[5:27:36] >> well, >> you'll you'll know where I'm going to go >> Well, so it's it's this interesting dynamic. The market's worried about inflation from AI, but it's also pricing in a broader growth slowdown, and it

[5:27:48] doesn't care about oil, but it cares about the knock on effects. I got to say, like the macro here isn't a I don't think the macro here is a straight shot, >> unless underlying volatility, more volatility

[5:28:02] >> unless what the market has decided is that AI is the real inflation threat and the damage is already done. And so the next thing to do and you can look at the GDP now uh uh now cast and see the damage

[5:28:18] now uh uh now cast and see the damage being done and cuz it's right there in >> I love this. I love this. Hold on a second. The path forward is one of your inflation swaps are down but tips are also tanking because the market's saying

[5:28:30] The Fed's about to crush it through a series of aggressive hikes which by the way we need and until we get them we're going to keep pushing real rates higher. I think it's more like we got this inflationary thing that's been getting

[5:28:46] beckoned >> that you have real rates responding to. Let's not forget they've been responding to it. They're already at uh the highest since April of last year when we had a bond market panic around the tariff roll

[5:29:04] bond market panic around the tariff roll out. So, it's not like real rates are, oh, we're going to see hikes. They've been calling for these hikes for quite some time now, for months. And so, maybe we've gotten to a place where actually

[5:29:18] we're not going to need the hikes because the tightening is already done. actually, the next step is going to be cut, just not this year. I think uh one Kevin Walsh has very uh cannilally given himself all kinds of room from all

[5:29:35] corners by saying, "Oh, I got these uh task forces. There's five of them. Uh we don't give forward guidance anymore. Uh we're going to wait to say anything of substance until the task forces tell us how to say it. Oh, and they'll be done

[5:29:50] how to say it. Oh, and they'll be done by year end. So don't expect anything by year end. So don't expect anything until 2027 is what I read there. And by that time these real rates, they might well have crushed the economy.

[5:30:03] have done the work. >> They'll have done the work. >> So speaking of, you know, this, you can see we had two auctions today as we make been given a gift here if you're a bear like I am. I know that you have a

[5:30:15] like I am. I know that you have a different view than I do, but uh let's sand real quick. Two-year 5-year note auctions were today. Two-year note auction good stops through by half a basis point. Bit to cover ratio 2.66.

[5:30:31] basis point. Bit to cover ratio 2.66. 5-year auction not so good. Tails by 0.9 5-year auction not so good. Tails by 0.9 basis points. Bit to cover ratio 2.28. auctions last week how at the long end of the curve bit to cover ratios were

[5:30:44] down. Uh those auctions were tailing, right? not good signs. If you're reading right? not good signs. If you're reading the tea leaves of an auction this week, the twos are good. The fives going out further in time, those are the crummy

[5:30:58] ones. So, you could see how investors are also still of the mindsets like you're telling me that I have to hold fixed income for a sustained period of need more compensation. This isn't worth it for me yet.

[5:31:15] what's the market what's the market telling you? You're going to dump 750 billion on a sector that already grew 10.1% annualized in the first quarter.

[5:31:28] >> Uh yeah, we're going to need inflation compensation because uh this is going to be astronomical amounts of money spinning at a ridiculous rate. If you take a look at the velocity of money, this is this deep cuts here. But if you

[5:31:44] look at M1 velocity, surging Stupid AI. Google, your Gemini is just so terrible. M1 velocity. The speed of

[5:32:01] Apple's M1 silicon chip is 3.2 GHz. >> Oh, no. No. Tell it M2 velocity. Close enough. We It used to just go right to Fred. bounced up a little bit here. Definitely from where we were co we haven't seen.

[5:32:17] >> That's the thing. Since co the velocity of money has has aggressively increased >> but it's still so low compared to where I know there's been some definition changes over time which may be changing but the the velocity of money back pre

[5:32:32] financial crisis was like five five and a half six. Well, sure, but that's financial crisis. >> Yeah. Well, yeah, >> it fell. It fell aggressively. It's It's already back maybe 50% of its fall.

[5:32:52] noted earlier, it's unchanged on the day. Oil prices coming off and yet rate because every time we get one of these shocks, it it just it's like the bull

[5:33:04] goes into the system and it's going to have to be digested. And when we first first week of March, Ilia, we had nine months to go.

[5:33:16] months to go. We're now five less than 5 months to you know, less than 5 months to the next Fed meeting, the December Fed meetings. end of the year, that's 9 months away. We have plenty of time. every time we

[5:33:30] disruptions, it kind of then just calcifies and makes it that much more those hikes are going to have to inevitably arrive at some point in the near future. So that to me has me interesting a place with ZB and ZT and

[5:33:44] interesting a place with ZB and ZT and ZN really ZN uh because we jumped today. We've been pinned here with a dogee up at that former low. We have ZV with very of a bullish candlestick, but we jumped today and we've been pinned below the

[5:33:58] today and we've been pinned below the swing low here. So, what to do? What to do? Well, I'm still sitting in that long uh put spread, which with today's action nothing, which affords me the opportunity, Ilia. Yep.

[5:34:12] >> Do I really really want to have something at 25 days to want to have something at 25 days to expiration right now? No. So, let's just fresh. Maybe 60 days is the better place to go to affect this view. Um, but this

[5:34:27] seems to be the line in the sand, right? 110 and a half and over. I'm just going to wait here because we're seven ticks away. If we can get through 110, if oil keeps falling, we get through 110. You know what? It's not going to be the

[5:34:39] of a bounce. Maybe it goes up towards 111 and a half again, just like we saw in early July. Uh, same thing with notes, right? If we can clear out 108 and a half, all right, maybe we put in a short-term bottom, better chance to

[5:34:52] But >> line in the sand where we are. Uh being because this thing could break either way. And I just want to make sure that I'm on the right side of it. So watching, waiting, using the opportunity

[5:35:09] with ZB as a reset. Uh because 25 days, this thing could bounce up a little bit more, particularly if oil comes off as we saw in June, right? Another two or three days of oil weakness, ZB pops up another t another point.

[5:35:21] >> Then all of a sudden I'm I'm just gamma starts to go against me. Wrong side of >> Sure. >> I mean, I'm watching I'm watching I'm not um opposed to the idea that what

[5:35:37] not um opposed to the idea that what we're looking at in both ZN and ZB is an attempt to bottom. Because if we do have all of this demand destruction and if all of this demand destruction and if the rate hike odds do go away, then the

[5:35:49] the rate hike odds do go away, then the bonds are going to rally and gold has bonds are going to rally and gold has been, as you know, pointedly not selling been, as you know, pointedly not selling off in this real rates meltup, which is

[5:36:02] perhaps telling us something. >> which is unusual because if you look at long mur and so just to be take a step back real rates uh you have your treasury rate for lack of a better just

[5:36:15] >> Yeah. >> So that could be a real rate. You have have your real wage. So if your wages go up 10% but inflation's 5% then you actually really only got like a 5% uh raise. Okay. Uh so to that point when we

[5:36:31] interest rates go up what the market effectively is saying is that is implying that interest rates nominal interest rates have to rise if inflation expectations are staying static or going down and historically speaking when you

[5:36:44] plot like uh and I've done this before but if you were to plot the weekly but if you were to plot the weekly returns in gold prices versus the weekly change in the 10-year real yield or the two-year real yield or the 5year real

[5:36:56] yield you'll see that there has historically and over decades a negative correlation which makes sense as real yields go up. gold, which is a not a, you know, coupon bearing asset. There's no cash flows, there's no dividends,

[5:37:11] right? Uh why it's more expensive to hold, so why are you holding it? So, the fact that you'd have gold stabilizing over the past month now despite real holding gold that much more expensive and gold not going down. Okay, I've

[5:37:27] you're getting to why this real rates gold connection matters because gold in on paper should probably be maybe $300 or $400 lower if it was following the path that it had been following with real rates April, May, June. Well, and

[5:37:41] like gold isn't responsive. It is responsive. It just hasn't been responsive. It just hasn't been responsive since late June, early uh July. that top in gold back to late April that

[5:37:57] lines up. That's where you get the divergence in stocks and bonds. That's divergence in stocks and bonds. That's where all of that hyperscaler where all of that hyperscaler uh activity gets priced in as inflation.

[5:38:13] You can see it already there. And and gold sells off as it is meant to do when real rates go up. It is pointedly ignoring the latest run It is pointedly ignoring the latest run of it now basically for the past month.

[5:38:28] of it now basically for the past month. And so you go, what is gold thinking? Why is it thinking these things? And you go, well, maybe gold has figured out that we're not going to get these hikes, that actually we're going to get

[5:38:41] hikes, that actually we're going to get cuts, just not this year. Maybe turning points. I'm keeping this from a pure technical perspective on silver. uh 15th of May, eyides of May, we closed below our one month moving average and

[5:38:56] >> I'm looking at the yellow line here on the screen folks and I'm not seeing any daily bars that get us through there. Maybe recently we're trying to trying to we couldn't quite get there 60 298 close that was a one month of 60574 so no not

[5:39:12] into there we couldn't do it or also only down by 0.25%. So, Ilia, I have my line here. I was looking for a breakout above 58 last want to chase this. This thing hasn't made any further advance right now. So,

[5:39:26] I'm not doing anything just yet. But this it feel you may have gotten in earlier than I did, but this is really starting to feel like maybe a corner to give you that chart that you know I love. Little left shoulder head, right

[5:39:42] shoulder here on the bottom of that screen. Uh and it is at a bottom here Ilia which I know is your preferred place for these kind of things. >> So just silver right silver right now >> gold right now

[5:39:55] >> we got to keep an eye on them because they are proving way more resilient in a fundamental environment that should be otherwise quite damning for them. Um so too. >> Silver is next on deck for me. Copper

[5:40:10] back up by the way today half a percent higher here. Didn't get filled last higher here. Didn't get filled last week. Uh beach ball underwater. I mean still. >> Although if we have a growth risk,

[5:40:23] >> Although if we have a growth risk, this one may not work like the others. >> Well, the PMIs came out last week. The PMIs came out last week and they were >> They were solid. And on the manufacturing side, they were still

[5:40:38] giving you all of the AI buildout figure. And by the way, it's not like these are data centers getting built. These are people getting ready for the These are people getting ready for the data centers to be built and stockpiling

[5:40:52] data centers to be built and stockpiling whatever inputs they might need. And so that's probably going to continue. 30 50 3050 standard, you know, expected move is down to about 5859. Uh dollar wide on a strike at 59 days to

[5:41:09] expiration is giving you just under 19 cents a credit. We're looking for 33 there. That's not good enough. Maybe something in at 30 days. Six. something in at 30 days. Six. Go 10 wide again. 659

[5:41:27] looking for the opportunities to to short V to get long deltas in that regard. >> I'm just not finding it. Um, >> do I want to pay 19 cents of credit for, you know, a call spread that goes up to

[5:41:41] you know, a call spread that goes up to the expected move? Probably not. It just doesn't seem like this is where you would put capital most effectively to work here. Like it's not like these are trades that are terrible. I mean the

[5:41:54] are trades that are terrible. I mean the risk reward on them is okay but is this how you want to tie up capital is the thought process that I have and is the thought process that I have and for me the answer is no

[5:42:07] and even in silver futures right again standard just 28 IVR not great uh raw volatility is 48 okay something interesting there uh 5354 short put spread wrapped around the expected move risking four to make one

[5:42:22] but only 22 2 cents of credit. Still not good enough. So, you got to I mean, we got to be creative with how we play these. Uh I don't know that I don't know >> Yeah, I just don't know that copper is the place I want to do anything in. I

[5:42:36] will say there >> if we are right >> if we are right and what we're looking at is a rethink and what we're looking at is a rethink of this entire Fed rate hike situation.

[5:42:48] And frankly, it's kind of funny this rate hike situation because you you and I have talked about this. What in the world is the Fed going to do about an world is the Fed going to do about an oil price shock? Not a thing. So, how do

[5:43:03] we reconcile that the market in its infinite wisdom is pricing in tightening? Because the market knows the Fed's not going to tighten or could tighten or would need to tighten for any oil reasons. It's these other reasons

[5:43:20] and core inflation has in fact been rising since January before the war. >> Mhm. >> So you look at this and you go, okay, so the market has basically done the tightening for the Fed. That's that's

[5:43:33] why the pricing looks the way it does. It's not necessarily why that the market thinks there's going to be a hike. It's that the market has moved up rates. And the reason it's moved up rates is because it knows it wants inflation

[5:43:48] compensation and the real rates already show it. So if what we're looking at then is this then maybe

[5:44:01] what we have in all of these growth related types of things is actually a turn that's coming like copper for example but it also means that the US dollar might be at a very juicy place to sell.

[5:44:19] >> in particular against the Aussie where the setup is beautiful. question on how we've been managing uh the positions in uh in gold tier. Uh Liz

[5:44:33] put me on to this. You know, maybe we don't break through 3955. don't break through 3955. This is GCZ6. So when I say 3955, I'm going over to GCU6 quickly. 3955 here, Ilia.

[5:44:46] And actually, I'm not even going into G. I think I'm going into Q6, but uh yeah, it was Q6 as I meant to go to. But there we have it. That low 3955 from June were working around previously. So over in the Z6 contract, that's now going to

[5:45:01] in the Z6 contract, that's now going to be a low of 4015.60. So slightly different setup here when you go to your gold futures, right? the way that we were approaching this was that we wouldn't break that yearly

[5:45:14] was that we wouldn't break that yearly low. Um where do we go here? So on the low. Um where do we go here? So on the trade table here uh the put butterfly. Okay. The way that this makes money is effectively it's not going to make

[5:45:29] maximal profit up here Ilia but the way that this makes money is if we basically just stay up at these levels. Maybe it's not gonna keep rallying, but as long as it continues to decay and the market

[5:45:45] stabilizes here over the next few weeks, this will eventually start to roll into sure that that I did I mark that off the correct that's why it's not showing the correct that's why it's not showing the correct thing here. You just two. Now we

[5:45:57] can go back to the curve. There we go. Okay. So, the point is that there's Gold doesn't need a rally for right now. It just needs not fall. It does feel If it does turn the corner, I'm going to be right there with you. Be very

[5:46:12] aggressive again. >> It's been a very hard year being a gold be. But you have been pining for a conversation on the dollar >> here. The US dollar is again one of

[5:46:25] these assets today. Just quickly running it down through the future space. Uh euro is only up by 001. The yen's up. 07. Canadian dollar is down 18 basis 07. Canadian dollar is down 18 basis points. pound 26 Aussie up by 008 here.

[5:46:38] Um, not for nothing, the high in the DXY Friday was 10153. We're at 10150 right candle with just a little bit more of a push. >> You think this is creating a good selling opportunity, which hurts me

[5:46:54] because as your friend, you know that I'm long the dollar in a places. I'm also by the way completely uh I am speaking as a dollar bull going back oh speaking as a dollar bull going back oh I don't know 20 years

[5:47:09] so I'm bullish on the dollar generally but we're trading here component of our dollar index of course right 57.6% 6% of DXY Ilia. This to me

[5:47:24] looks like a bare flag down here. Maybe this maybe the spot currency market is a better way to look at this because we see that major swing low that we have back in July August 25. The pin low that we have here in March 26. I'm going to

[5:47:37] go down to that 4hour time frame here. This little bit of a rally that we just had off the low. We tried climbing through that at the open. We couldn't >> We couldn't stick it. No. >> You notice that?

[5:47:49] >> I think the Aussie looks much better. Well, maybe Aussie because it's a high Aussie outperforms even the euro. But this now this now >> uptrend break top left, bottom right.

[5:48:01] Now this looks like a bare flag. So I the dollar for me >> uh we took off some positions here today. Uh took off one of these short 11 days to expiration. keeping on one more at 11, one more at 16, excuse me,

[5:48:16] at 39 because the short strikes sit above that zone. As long as we hold I'm feeling pretty good. And I just like the charts right now given how they're kind of shaping up into this flaggy bare flag kind of situation right now. I

[5:48:32] mean, if it breaks that low, I'm right there with you. Uh I am basically long against that low and it's sitting right there. So, let's see. Um, I am I will

[5:48:47] turn this I will turn this car around this instant. Uh, and uh get right back on the long side. >> You know, the pound there. I know you're pound there, too, then? If you're looking for some long dollar exposure,

[5:49:01] you phrase this recently. The shelf. >> Yeah. >> Okay. Here's a shelf in the pound dollar recently up near 133 and a half. >> There's another one under. >> You see this? We moved above Friday's

[5:49:13] couldn't get above the one week, the one month, the 50-day. All were challenged today. So, before you go into the Aussie here, I want to go to 39 days to expiration. Right now, the that's we'll call it 13375.

[5:49:27] >> Yeah. >> 134 134 and a half. 135. >> The pound looks soggy today. We're I'm going to send this here. Okay. 134135

[5:49:43] short put spread short call spread here. Uh 60% probability of profit risking 450 to make 175. But it's 28 pips in credit versus 100 wide. So it's not quite that third of the strike. It's 28% not 33. But it's close enough. And when it's

[5:49:59] close enough with a technical setup that I like, you got to then take the swing >> Right. >> So >> adding a little bit more long dollar here. You have an Aussie idea though

[5:50:11] >> Yeah, my my line in the sand on the pound hasn't been crossed yet. >> Um I would say it's somewhere around like 13260 13270. >> Sure. >> Um which is close. It's it it's close. I

[5:50:25] >> Um which is close. It's it it's close. I see positive uh momentum divergence as we test these lows. So I'm going to hang on to it for like a few pips more. Um, there's maybe 30, 40 more pips of confirmation that I need. That's not a

[5:50:40] lot. So, wants to sell off, then let's go. I'll flip it right over. The Aussie has been stairstepping higher. And this is the one I would say that's still very much in an uptrend series of

[5:50:53] higher highs. Talk about shelves. It's holding its shelf. So, this I think looks pretty in interesting. Um, it's holding up. Uh,

[5:51:05] interesting. Um, it's holding up. Uh, I'm long. Uh, I'm long. Uh, let's see. I I'm long. Uh, I'm long. Uh, let's see. I am long this thing from

[5:51:18] 69. Let's see. >> I'm looking for an options trade >> thing. 6962. >> thing. 6962. So about uh 20 pips lower than we are

[5:51:32] >> Mhm. Mhm. >> So, let's see. Um, but I'm looking at this and thinking if you're going to get a rally in the bonds, if gold really is saying something,

[5:51:47] then the dollar is going to be a part of that story. Okay? You know, there's something to work with here. Okay? The low that we have in this range recently is 6956.

[5:52:02] recently is 6956. Um, not so much at 11 here. 69.50 69 13 cents a credit. It's close. If you go out to 39 days though and do the 69.5 uh

[5:52:18] out to 39 days though and do the 69.5 uh 69, you're getting 16 cents of credit on 50 cent wide. So if that was a dollar Ilia, it'd be 32 cents. Risking 340 to make 160. Probability of profit 63%. Send it. Both can happen,

[5:52:35] go down. Euro dollar can go down. Aussie can just chop here. >> Yeah. Pound Aussie. Look at pound Aussie the cross here. Just just just for fun. Aussie the cross on >> Oh, look at that before.

[5:52:49] >> Oh, look at that before. >> Oh, look at that. Sinking and breaking >> Oh, look at that. Sinking and breaking levels. It's a nice little Interesting. >> It's a nice little thing you got going

[5:53:02] >> It's a nice little thing you got going there, Ellia. It's a nice little thing. Even you're Aussie. This is too starting. about all kinds of markets, but I'm still a spot trader at heart.

[5:53:16] then. Look at that rejection of the one week today, failing up against the you have a point. You This is one of the good things about FX, right? Like when versus the euro, the pound. Which >> Aussie? But no, but we can also get a

[5:53:31] >> Yes. >> Right. And the Australian dollar here, it's not just Aussie dollar, but if if Auss if euro Aussie and pound Aussie are that could be euro weakness, pound weakness, it could be Aussie strength.

[5:53:44] dollar maybe better getting, you know what, Aussie dollar looks like it's breaking down. I'm just going to go to Euro dollar. So, there's so many different ways to skin this cat. I know that these aren't futures products, but

[5:53:57] here. You can just type the ticker into the top or head over to the tasty >> and you can use the futures. I mean, you could have a you you could have a little could have a you you could have a little uh M6A, M6E little spread here. Doesn't

[5:54:11] have to be big. Very manageable. This is exposure you could >> and it's not complicated >> and you could trade it like it was spot effects by doing the pair trade there. So short 6 M6P, long M6A,

[5:54:26] >> uh at the same exact expiration cycle, just along the the micro futures, and a a pair trade then because now you've isolated the dollar component out of it, >> You've you've essentially just hedged the dollar out of it,

[5:54:39] >> right? So Ilia, um I think we can leave it there for now. And there goes a crude position getting taken off the books, which is good news because that's what 7.75%. We may get a chance at a reset here.

[5:54:52] Stocks are getting a very minor bounce 7434 here in the S&P 500 earlier. We went right down to last week's lows and then we kind of stabilized. Uh we we we washed out the market reaction here from the gap

[5:55:07] >> Let's go, baby. >> Keeps on sinking. >> Keep those losses coming, >> plenty of time in my in in my in my verticals. Plenty of time. We have more great programming coming up for here uh

[5:55:22] the corner. We're going to take a brief break for two or three minutes, but get Dr. Jim in here from Theory to Practice for the next 45. You'll get Tim Knight from 2:15 to 2:30 Central time. And then we'll be back for Last Call and

[5:55:37] Overtime here today. Uh Ilia, always good to see you. Folks, Dr. Jim's coming up next. Ask him about his favorite Celsius flavor. He's a real fan. See you Celsius flavor. He's a real fan. See you on the other side.

[5:56:04] When you are assigned, you are ultimately short an option that's in the money and the counterparty has the ability to exercise that option. So if you are assigned, it means your option against your will ultimately has turned

[5:56:18] into 100 shares of long or short stock. >> What does a green scratch mean? >> Ooh, a green scratch refers to stubbornness getting the best of you. And when I say you, I mean me. Uh, green scratch refers to rolling a position,

[5:56:32] defending a position, and instead of just closing it for less than uh loss that you're seeing, or maybe a $100 loss, $50 loss, a green scratch is when you close it for maybe a 5-cent win, 10-cent winner, 15-cent winner. Just the

[5:56:46] ability to see that green number on your screen and get out in a profitable way screen and get out in a profitable way as opposed to a loss.

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[5:58:29] Practice. Welcome to the show. Welcome to the broadcast, man. Welcome to the trying to do. I'm so glad that you guys are here because if it wasn't for you guys, we would not be able to do what we do and I would not be able to do what I

[5:58:41] do. So, thank you guys so very much. If you're watching over on the Tasty Live to YouTube because you can join the conversation and join the discussion and also watching the program. Man, you can celebrate today if you are a bear. You

[5:58:55] can commiserate if you are a bull, but it will be a good time had by some. And Whatever questions, whatever comments, whatever stories, whatever jokes you've get to as many as I can right around the halfway mark of the show. But I want to

[5:59:10] know what's going on in your life. And the algo also wants to know what's going on in your life so it can learn about us to destroy us all in the next 36 to 48 months. So Ben, bring us into the market, man. Let's take a quick little

[5:59:23] market, man. Let's take a quick little look. EM S&P is down 1516 on the day. Okay, you got the risk-free instrument. Also knows the NASDAQ futures extremely Also knows the NASDAQ futures extremely extraordinarily high risk down 230 on

[5:59:36] the day. You got the boomers up a buck 50. You got the Russell 30,000 a few points off of 30,000 up nine up to 2950. Got bonds up 17. You got notes up a Got bonds up 17. You got notes up a little bit. You got oil down 670.

[5:59:50] Man, that's crazy. Was it not up a bunch earlier, man? How about that? Markets moving, things change. It's almost like nobody knows. It's almost like nobody

[6:00:02] has a freaking clue. UB 40 up a little bit. You got the shifties out there. I wouldn't call that celebration worthy, but they may dance a little jig. Anyway, gold up eight. Got the hump brothers. Where my hump brothers at?

[6:00:17] Locking down those silver pits, man. Down 25 cents. Okay, so silver at 58 and some change. Got the British pound is down. You got the euro is unchanged. You got volatility futures up 8 cents and then you got the VIX, the old VIX up 80

[6:00:33] cents on the day up to 1937. And so, man, we are getting closer and closer back to that 20 level. And so, there's your market commentary for you. No. Are you better off for having gone through it? Not that either, but at

[6:00:48] least it's over and it's all done with. So, let's get in the portfolio and let's take a look at where the wind is blowing us. So, if you saw inside the trade uh this morning, I was a little bit off my game. Lots happened. Uh personal fast

[6:01:00] market uh this morning. So, lots of things going on for me. But, I did QQQ, So I was not able to see what you guys were doing. I did kind of scan it afterwards though and I saw some of the uh the core position filing in there in

[6:01:12] the uh the wee hours of the morning by wee hours of the morning. It was 10:00 wee hours of the morning. It was 10:00 Eastern. And so MQ and QQQ, these were the two trades that we did this morning. So just in case you are wondering, hey,

[6:01:25] where did this QQQ position come from? This is where it came from. What about the MNQ position? This guy right here, this was uh another trade. Now, you know, given the fact that I'm already long the NASDAQ with this short put

[6:01:37] right here, this old crusty guy that's right there, I'm already long S&P 500 You know, taking those things into account, I don't know that adding and layering in more QQQ risk or MNQ risk was necessarily the smartest move, but

[6:01:52] NASDAQ this morning, I mean, we're up 400 last night. You know, we won the US Iran war for the 23rd time and then we lost it again this morning. And so I was square one. Maybe we can win it by the afternoon." There's not usually that

[6:02:05] quick of a turnaround. Like usually you need 36 to 48 hours. So I was like, it's impossible. So I thought, let's play this thing to the upside. Let's go ahead talking about buying power. Let's sell some put spreads and QQQ kind of talking

[6:02:19] about defined risk, you know, spreads and such. And so that is what we did for the uh for the morning. So those were the trades from inside the trade. And that of course was uh in the morning session. So that's where those guys came

[6:02:31] the morning show and you're wondering where those guys came from, you know, I want to try I really want there to be as few broken links in the chain as I can possibly muster. And so that is why um that is why I want to spend a couple of

[6:02:46] seconds going over that. So that's MNQ and QQQ. And then going on down the list a little bit more. Man, take a look at our ZBB. Our ZBB. Our ZB put. Who gave me that ZB put? Hold on a second. I know I got this written down. I got my

[6:02:59] I got this written down. I got my receipts. Uh I'm not a super organized fella in case you have missed that. Oh, I got it. It's uh it's Ash Finn. Ash Finn gave us that CB push. So, thank you there, Ash. I appreciate you, my friend.

[6:03:11] Uh and so, you know, we're about we're about on the trade so far. Uh it looked a little dicey there for a second, but everything looks uh looks pretty good uh right here with uh the rally in balance today. So, you know, we've got a short

[6:03:24] know, what are we going to do? you know, right now it's do nothing. Like right now we really lean into the DNS, you know, in a pretty big way. And so, you buffer. It's obviously worked pretty well for us to this point. If I go to a

[6:03:39] chart of bonds, I don't think I don't think it has ever gotten Did it get through 109? I don't think it did. Yeah, look at that. The 109. It got to 1098. So, right there, if I just hold my Hold

[6:03:52] on. Let me hold my cursor. Ah, it's perfect. just so I can free up the hand and so we can kind of talk with our hands. 1098 was the low point on bonds. Our strike is at 109. I rest my case. This is now exhibit quintuple Q. The DNS

[6:04:07] strategy is a great strategy. The DNS strategy should be in consideration for decide what the best pathway forward through the forest is for you. I can't try to tell you what to do. But when I think about the power of short premium

[6:04:23] probabilities and I think about the power of having this room to be wrong, I really like a situation where I'm not doing anything until the strike is hit. that strike is hit. So we got a little close and it looked like man it's going

[6:04:37] to happen. It's going to this that the other thing. But it's like I don't know one thing but the bond market the bond market is what's really calling the the administration's going to let bonds go down to 107, 108, 106, whatever? I

[6:04:52] mean, I don't think so. And so, we'll have to wait and see. But, uh, but yeah, so for right now, ZB is in is in a good spot. So, we do nothing on ZB. And, uh, there you go. So, now moving on down the list. Uh, oh, MEES, you know, this was

[6:05:07] our short put here. the other kind of part that I alluded to a second ago about, you know, being long the market and kind of MNQ and kind of double dipping and triple dipping to the uh to the upside. Uh, you know, that's what we

[6:05:20] did this morning and I talked about a couple of seconds ago to repeat myself but uh but for me, you know, we are in a situation that's kind of similar to ZB.

[6:05:32] Now, it may not feel like ZB. Like, this may not feel like the same thing as ZB, but it's very, very similar to ZB in a lot of ways. And so, for our purposes Like, for my purposes here, I'm not going to do a single thing. I'm going to

[6:05:46] sit tight and do absolutely nothing because I have room to be wrong because I have room to let the position meander. I have room to kind of let the position

[6:05:58] to do anything. I don't need to go in and usurp the process. I don't need to upset the apple cart. I don't need whatever longtime long-term colloquialism you want to apply to the situation. I don't have to do any of

[6:06:11] those things, right? We can just kind of sit tight and just let this guy work. And so, you know, obviously, you mean S&P's down 20, it's like, okay, eh, 7350 strike. You've only got 75 points left until that buffer is gone, until the uh

[6:06:24] right now, the Apple Card, it's more or less indifferent, I would say. And so that's fine as long as it remains indifferent and or potentially a bit happy that would be good for us. But once it gets upset, that's where

[6:06:37] everything kind of goes to schmutz. And so me, we sit tight and we do uh we do nothing. Just as like a life goal, I try to uh I try to prevent as many things from going to schmutz as I possibly as I possibly can. So me and MNQ and ZB.

[6:06:52] There you go. Crowd Strike. Who gave me Crowd Strike? I don't I did write it down, but it's on one of my stacks of paper that's not near me. And there are

[6:07:04] so there are many many many stacks of paper around me. No, that's a Father's who gave me Crowd Strike. Identify yourself in the uh in the chat there. And uh yeah, I mean, we're doing okay, but uh right now we're down a couple of

[6:07:19] BEu, which is not the end of the world. Uh but I mean, it is a Monday. I'm not I'm not even sure that they're open on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday actually for that matter. And so from a crowd strike standpoint, from a crowd strike

[6:07:32] standpoint, we sit tight, we uh we do nothing. Boomers in the house. Shout out show. Man, I appreciate you guys. I appreciate you guys so much. You guys built this country. Like you guys 100% built this country. I mean, you guys

[6:07:44] been working 60, 70, 80 hours a week for thank you, man. Us millennials, like we thank you. Like I am an elder millennial. I am like the eldest millennial. My birthday is May 19th,

[6:07:57] 1981. And so I think the cuto off for millennials is like anyone after like May 15th, 1981. I think I'm like one of the first groups into the the millennial the first groups into the the millennial group because I think like me, is it me?

[6:08:12] millennial. Like we're in the same group and like Errol's like life experience is drastically different from mine. And so the spectrum you might be on, it's not too different from like using a lot of

[6:08:25] leverage. Shout out to the trading lab over there on the old Twitter account. different ends of the spectrum from like you want a lot of risk aversion or maybe a little bit of risk aversion. It's kind of the same thing because Errol and I I

[6:08:40] don't know, man. I don't think we've had the same the same life experience just from a when we were born standpoint. And so, but I shout out to my boomers again. I appreciate y'all. appreciate you all so very much. Uh, and I've got a long

[6:08:52] put diagonal to show my appreciation. I'm playing the boomers to the to the downside. And uh, yeah, right now we're at about a scratch up a tiny tiny bit, not going to do anything right now. So, I'm going to sit tight and I'm going to

[6:09:07] do nothing with uh, with my diamonds uh, put spread and then that is uh, that is going to be that. And sorry. So, that is my diamonds situation. And then EM I've got uh what do I have on here again? Yeah, short strangle on and EM. So 6071.

[6:09:24] Uh we have EM at 63. So obviously this trade is working out pretty well. And we have, you know, we're short uh a strangle. We sold it for 206. Right now great. I mean that's that's phenomenal for us. And so uh we do nothing. We sit

[6:09:42] right? There's absolutely unequivocally no reason to do anything here. And so we have not been tested on our strikes. I Hang on a second. Have we ever been tested on the strikes?

[6:09:57] Let me go to uh let me see what are my strikes again. 60 71. strikes again. 60 71. Yeah, 60 is down here, right? 71 is up

[6:10:09] here. And we put the trade on. And I won't even bring up the chains. Uh I mean it's a Monday, you know, it's kind of a slow storming. It's rainy. It's kind of gloomy. So this isn't really like a

[6:10:22] chains Monday. This isn't really like a rooster Monday. This is like a Sarah McGlaclin Monday, right? So I'm not really in the mood to do to do a little change. This is more like an Atlantis Morsette type of Monday. And so I think

[6:10:37] holds out because it is storming pretty bad outside right now. Uh, but we did give or take. Doesn't it doesn't matter. It was somewhere around there, right? I up here. We've got lots of room down there. I mean, this is exactly what you

[6:10:51] very technical, by the way. In fact, this may even be a bit too advanced. If you're brand new, you may want to back up a couple of steps. And if I lost you, just shoot me an email and we'll bring you up to speed. But this is uh this is

[6:11:03] what you want on a strangle, right? You kind of want the stock to stay between your horizontal lines. like the squiggly lines are okay as long as they stay that's it. That's all we want, right? We just keep this stuff super simple, super

[6:11:18] straightforward. And so, right now, we do nothing. We sit tight and EM is uh is do. And then we've got our micron where our short put spread. Yeah, this guy's not coming back. Now, I say that because it is kind of funny. So, you look at the

[6:11:32] situation. This is actually perfect, right? Because you look at the situation way. I see you guys 100% in that chat, man. Look at you guys. Ash Vinn is here. Ranch is here. BBB Fine is here. Sam L is here. DMZ is here. Weiss and Adam

[6:11:47] is here. DMZ is here. Weiss and Adam Armfield. Sergio and PointB and base 8 in the house. Brian Racketin is here, man. I appreciate you guys. Big deal donuts is here, man. I appreciate all you and I know I miss some people, but I

[6:11:59] appreciate you. I see you. USA Super Tech. And so Micron with our Micron situation. So you look at the situation, right? and you're like, man, this thing it's never coming back. Like, the push spread is dead. It's done. Like, it's

[6:12:13] happen. I certainly don't know what's going to happen. But we've seen just recently, like just recently, we've seen situations where the final days, the final week, the final days, right? It didn't look like

[6:12:28] looked like it was done. It looked like it was over. And then it came back. It looked like it was done. It looked like it was over. It came roaring back. And hold it to the very end. This is the beauty of defined risk. I've never been

[6:12:42] know that. But it absolutely serves a very important purpose if you are brand around the edges around more of an undefined risk core in your portfolio. in terms of like it being the thing

[6:12:56] are now to where you're trying to go, you know, in my humble professional professional personal opinion, I don't know that that's going to be the best way to get where you're trying to go. But one of the most redemptive qualities

[6:13:09] of defined risk, arguably the most redemptive quality of defined risk, is the simple fact that you know your worst case scenario. So that frees you up. that frees you up to do a ton of things. Namely, not a single thing at all. Like,

[6:13:24] you just put the trade on and you don't do anything. Like, I just put the trade favor. I at the outset or maybe it was a 50/50 shot or maybe it's a butterfly with like a, you know, 20 25% pop, whatever. I know what I've signed up for

[6:13:37] entry. I'm okay with that. If I end up taking max loss on the trade, not that to happen. Not that I'm going to go out of my way to like make that easier to become an outcome for me, but if it actually does happen to end up, it's

[6:13:51] to the next trade. And so with a situation like Micron where it doesn't look like it's ever going to come back here, we've still got 25 days to go. And in the world of memory stocks, man, 25 days to go. I mean, that's like I mean,

[6:14:06] that's like a trip to Tal Talenturi Tal Talcetti. Talcetti, right? That's like a trip to Taetti for my Project Hail Mary fans. And so, you know, whether you're going there or you're going back, it's a pretty long track either way. And in the

[6:14:19] memory world, uh 25 days is a pretty pretty long way to go. So, for Micron here, uh I think we'll be okay. And by that, I mean we're probably going to take max loss, but uh

[6:14:32] but we sized appropriately on entry, so it'll be it'll be all right. Uh Netflix, the positions here as a little bit of a uh you know kind of bring us up to uh you know kind of bring us up to speed? Uh maybe potentially. And so uh I

[6:14:44] think we can. Uh let's do it. So Netflix, we have our 100 shares down. This was an assignment that we took from a short put that was in the money. And then uh this was an earnings trade, I believe, that

[6:14:56] was an earnings trade, I believe, that we rolled out and down. And so uh yeah, so Netflix, we've got our short put at the 65 uh 67 and a half strike. And uh yeah, so right now with Netflix up 80 cents, uh we're in a pretty good spot.

[6:15:10] cents, uh we're in a pretty good spot. And so I like the trade uh from a uh performance today standpoint. It hasn't necessarily been my favorite trade, you know, all along the way when it comes to um

[6:15:24] uh when it comes to what got us to this point. Had a bit of a brain freeze there. And uh yeah, so right now Netflix is helping the cause a little bit. And so that's good. We sit tight, we do nothing, and everything is working. QQQ,

[6:15:36] not going to belabor that point. I'm not even going to labor that point. We're just going to leave it as it is. Snapchat. Obviously, all of our hopes, all of our dreams, all of our future plans and prospects hinge on Snapchat.

[6:15:50] for months now. And by that, I mean, I think we brought it up maybe two, three times. Snapchat up 20 cents today is great. That's great for us. Now, we bought the stock at 604. It's marking at

[6:16:02] 455. That's not great, obviously, but long-term shareholders of Snapchat now. Like, I'm not looking for the exits. Like, I'm looking to vote. Like, I'm looking for my vote to come in the mail.

[6:16:14] Like, send me the perspectus. Like, I want to hear about the future plans of would what are we going to do in the final six weeks of this company's life? going to be a long shareholder until the end. And by that, I mean we may close it

[6:16:28] before market close today. So, Snapchat, uh, there you go. We're long 100 shares, uh, at least for the time being. And then, uh, SpaceX. So, we have on our vertical spread in SpaceX that is hemorrhaging cash. But the good

[6:16:42] to hemorrhage, right? I mean, you know, the nice thing about lighting stacks of cash on fire is a lot of the time it's a known stack. Uh, maybe not a lot of the risk and so sometimes it's a growing stack. So, yeah. Yeah. So, forget what I

[6:16:57] just said the last 20 seconds cuz it doesn't make any sense. But but in a vertical spread scenario, so specifically to this scenario, it is a known stack of cash. So, you know how much is going to be set ablaze in the

[6:17:11] event that it is indeed set ablaze. And so, that is nice obviously for the SpaceX situation because I know just how bad it's going to potentially be for the strangle situation. This guy that we put on uh I just did this one recently,

[6:17:25] on uh I just did this one recently, right? Ah, this was a Joel James at that, man. Look at Dr. Jim with the organization. I do have a Christmas card Father's Day card. I also have a Christmas card. This is so cool. So, I

[6:17:39] was just on my desk cuz I was looking for receipts and stuff. So, this is awesome. So, this is a Christmas tree. Obviously, and thought it was anything other than a Christmas tree, I don't know that I can

[6:17:54] you with anything actually because that is a good looking Christmas tree. And then when I look in there, look at what it says. You guys should be able to read it says. You guys should be able to read that, right? Merry Christmas, Dad. Merry

[6:18:08] Christmas, Dad. Now, I'm actually not sure which one of my children gave this to me. I usually do a good job of writing like names and dates on the

[6:18:20] maybe five to 10% of the time, but I didn't do it. I didn't do it here. Now, let's just use process of eliminate uh of elimination, right? This was from last Christmas. So, it's been sitting in that exact spot for what, seven months?

[6:18:33] Yeah, that's about right. Just using, let's just use some backwards calendar math, right? I have three children. I have Penelopey who's 11. I have uh Eli, May who's our intern, our assistant. She's six. Well, on Christmas, she was

[6:18:48] five, right? So, I think we can safely rule her out. I don't know that she could correctly spell Merry Christmas, Dad. Most of her communication is still in well, it's in crayon. It is in pictures and there might be like some

[6:19:02] There are supposed to be words and communication communicate, but it's really really difficult to read. So, it's either Penelope or Eli. I actually that was Eli. When we get done with the show, I'm actually going to go inside.

[6:19:17] pass, but um I want to know if that was him cuz he'll know right away. I'm pretty sure it was Eli. And so anyway, there's a Christmas card from uh from Eli. But Joel James, thank you for the SpaceX uh trade here. And I mean, it's

[6:19:30] responsibility for this trade, of course. But uh but yeah, short the 80 put, short the 160 call. And right now, we're at a uh we're at about a scratch we're at a uh we're at about a scratch and TLT. Uh let's see. TLT.

[6:19:45] Uh TLT. Oh, no. We have a uh it's working. Wait, is this Hold on a second. No. Uh, it's a Yeah, it's kind of working. Diagonal spread. Um,

[6:19:57] if I go to Let me bring up my chains here. If I do, what was TLT when we put this guy on? Okay. Yeah, it's uh it was 8429 it's down a little bit. That would make sense why we're losing a little bit of

[6:20:12] money on that trade. It's nothing crazy, but just a little bit. And then XLE. XLE is doing what we have politely asked XLE to do. And so, that is good. That is really really good here. The 54 62 and a2 and we're in a we're in a good spot.

[6:20:25] So there is the state of the union. Uh no new trades right now just cuz I want the two this morning QQQ and MNQ and we got man we got guys the stuff coming down down the shoots man. I mean look at this right Chipotle,

[6:20:41] Starbucks, Meta, Microsoft all on Wednesday. So I'll see you guys for Wednesday's show. Uh of course I mean you could take tomorrow off. tomorrow, tomorrow, but your boy needs that watch time. So, I really hope that you don't.

[6:20:55] Apple, Amazon coming on down the shoots. Let's not forget, right on July 29th as well, we've got the USA, right? Cousin Kev is coming out to tell

[6:21:07] us the State of the Union with the USA. And all eyes are on the tie color choice. Let me know in the chat. What do you guys think he's going to do? I mean this before, but I don't think you could talk about this enough, right? I mean,

[6:21:23] sure, we could do macro. We could do dollar and oil, but we got Chris, we got Ilia for that, right? Let the experts be experts in what they're experts at. They've got all that stuff on lockdown. I'm talking Tai colors. The navy blue

[6:21:36] shocked me. I mean, it shocked me. Like, I had to really do a double take. I was I'm shocked he didn't go with anything in the purple family. What do you guys think he's doing next week? I'm sorry,

[6:21:48] going to do this Wednesday? Do you think he's going to go navy blue again? Do you family? I actually think he knows what he's doing. All these guys are smart right? He knows this is all we care about. I think he deviates out of blue,

[6:22:04] but not purple. So, I think we're going to see something that's not blue and also not purple. Now, I don't know what that leaves, right? Right? I mean, let's can't do any shade of red and you can't do any shade of green, right? And so,

[6:22:19] it's like, all right, he's not doing red, he's not doing green. I'd be so shocked if he does either one of those categories. I don't think he goes navy blue again. If he goes like a powder blue, maybe that's its own category. I

[6:22:32] think I actually think I think he's going to go with like a mustard. Like I going to go with like a mustard. Like I think I mean maybe he goes like a forest green. So something that like is technically green but not really green.

[6:22:45] He could go black tie. Of course he could go gray tie. And uh you know this is you know uh it's anybody's guess. But don't forget guys don't forget our rule right? It's very very simple stuff. If he goes with the green tie it's time to

[6:23:00] buy. If he goes with gray, it might be okay. If he goes with black, you gotta hang back. But if he does go with blue, man, we are all gonna step in some doodoo. So, don't forget that is our that is our known universal Fed

[6:23:15] that is our known universal Fed playbook. And uh it is uh it is 100% that, I mean I probably wouldn't follow any of that. But let's go ahead. Let's go to the surprise and delight section of the program. So, this is when I get

[6:23:29] to the middle part of the show. And uh I usually like to go top down from the comments at the very beginning. And I'll get to the beginning people here in a delight some people in the middle that are not expecting me to ever get to

[6:23:42] them, but I'm going to actually do that right now. Uh and I actually see Green Ape. I just scrolled and I saw this. How about this Green Ape? How about this? about this Green Ape? How about this? Green Ape 84 says, "I am hoping to win

[6:23:55] the surprise and delight lottery." You have won, my friend. You have 100% won today. Now, have you won anything? Of course not. Right. Not a single thing, but thank you so much for being here there, Green Ape 84. I appreciate you so

[6:24:10] been in the chat before. And so, man, I just I appreciate you so much because of your username. You're making me think of a green of a um what am I thinking of?

[6:24:22] Uh the the ghost uh sour sour green apple. That's what it is. Sour Green Apple, which is the creme de creme of ghost flavors. Sour Green apple, sour pink lemonade, original. They're all A++ in my books. And so, Green A, thank you

[6:24:35] so much for uh for being here. Uh and then Green Ape goes on to say, uh Dr. morning. Man, I don't know. Green Ape, what are we what are we thinking? PayPal earnings tomorrow morning. All right. All right.

[6:24:49] tomorrow morning. All right. All right. All right. So, let's go ahead and um let's see. Let's see. Let's see. PayPal earnings tomorrow morning. If I go ahead and if I do hm Monday going into Friday.

[6:25:07] if I do hm Monday going into Friday. Uh let's see. Let's see. Let's see. We could do a butterfly going into Friday. We could. Uh it's only a $56 stock though. And so I actually think let's do um Okay, so here's what we're

[6:25:23] foremost, let's think about PayPal, right? Again, you are free to draw your about making money, you should do the exact opposite of anything that I might people in the chat. They will back me up. But when I think about this through

[6:25:39] my worldview and my lived experience of PayPal, I'm just I'm thinking about PayPal. I'm thinking about a young whippers snapper, Elon Musk, right? Just a young little tikeke building PayPal, right? millions upon millions, billions

[6:25:54] upon billions, trillions upon trillions, whatever it is. The fact that they're still in business, totally shocked. Given that they're can be anything other than bullish,

[6:26:06] right? I'm not sure I'm not sure how you can be anything other than mega mega PayPal, I'm thinking you got the stock at 56. Man, what if we just sell a put in the 4day cycle, right? If we just sell a put

[6:26:22] in the 4day cycle, you know, now you're looking at a $1.75 on the bid price, looking at a $1.75 on the bid price, $1.79 on the mid price, uh, I mean, I really, really like this trade. And again, you've got to blaze

[6:26:34] about making money, I would be playing this thing to the downside. But I'm looking at this and I'm thinking, man, let's go ahead and let's fire up. Let's let's go ahead and let's fire up. Let's load up this shortput in a 4day cycle.

[6:26:49] So, let's go ahead and $1.79. The buying power is only 900 bucks. And so, I power is only 900 bucks. And so, I really really like everything about we got filled at $1.76. So, there you go. And again, another really nice thing

[6:27:04] bucks. So, if you've got a smaller account, it could work with the position sizing uh parameters. So, uh, all right. So, let's go ahead and, uh, man, let's go back back to the very beginning of the show,

[6:27:19] man. I appreciate you guys so very much. Or Denny is in the house. What is up, my amazing weekend. I did. Locked and loaded for another week of earnings with banana natties all around. Get them on tap. Get them flowing. You're going to

[6:27:31] need them 100%. Doc, what is your favorite Celsius flavor? Important Like, they love that stuff. They love that stuff. Ah, I can't get there, man. I can't get there. Right. Not only are we working

[6:27:44] super hard on this Ghost sponsorship. And by that, I mean, I'm still waiting to send that first email, but it's going to happen. It's going to happen. Ghost, Gorilla Mind, these are one, two, right? It's a one and a two. It's not a one

[6:27:56] A1B. Ghost is ahead of Gorilla Mind in my opinion. Well, I don't know. Maybe it is a 1A1B type of thing. But Celsius to me, Celsius has done an amazing job of finding the perfect combination of chemicals and cough syrup. It's an

[6:28:12] amazing blend of these two entities, these two ideas, right? I mean, you have a ghost and what do you have a blend of? You have a blend of joy and happiness. You get some gorilla mind. You have a blend of what? Excitement and adventure.

[6:28:26] But you get some Celsius, man. really any flavor. It's like, man, did I just take some Nyquil? It's like, man, this stuff is bad. But anyway, that's what makes a market. And so, Chris and Ilia, there will be more in stock for y'all.

[6:28:40] the house. Thank you, Ren. You as always, my friend. Happy Monday, Doc. Hope you had a great weekend. I did. I absolutely did. Uh, it's rainy season hard most days. It's hurricane season, actually, but you know, uh, we're I kind

[6:28:53] of I kind of ascribe to the hurricane mean reversion strategy. And so I quiet for a while because two years ago, I mean, Hurricane Milton went right over roof off my house. I mean, it wasn't like the Wizard of Oz. There was that

[6:29:07] maybe six or eight shingles in the backyard. But we did but we were able to actually worked out okay. Uh but it went straight over my house and knocked the fence down, you know, tore the roof up and uh yeah, so the hurricane me

[6:29:21] reversion, I'm kind of going to lean into that. But uh but Samuel, Dieago has gotcha. Let's see what emotional damage this week has in store. Yeah, let's see. Let us see. Wolf Wolf is in the house. The good doctor is here. Let's go. Yes,

[6:29:34] I appreciate you. DMZ, hey, Dr. Jim, let's go. Have a great week. Let's make a ton of money, man. Let's do it. Let's 100% do it. I love the idea. I love the I love the feeling. I love the thought. Like, let's go, man. I love it. Sam

[6:29:48] Trading Lab newsletter. That's correct. You can check that on my Twitter. It's give that guy a look. It's completely free. Uh, another outstanding read full of trading wisdom, psychology, and classic doc storytelling. Uh, yeah, the

[6:30:01] funniest thing about the last one I sent out. So, I actually I didn't know until after I sent it. And so, it's it was so funny cuz like, you know, I I have my actually brought this up to me when you wrote and which was just too funny. So,

[6:30:14] rid of it now. So, if you sign up now, you're not going to see this. This is why you got to get on as early as you can. I actually left all my notes to the actual news like the drafts and such below the actual final product. So if

[6:30:26] you guys saw that email then you saw like you know kind of the cutting room intended to see and so thankfully it was all uh PG-rated. Uh BBB fine is here. What is going on there my friend Sam L is here. Uh oh I

[6:30:40] That's correct. That is correct. There you go. He knows. And so yeah good times. A true surprise and delight. That's right. Uh premier move. Uh, That's right. Uh premier move. Uh, PayPal, uh, a 56 put, 50 put, 47 put, 11

[6:30:53] butterfly since I already did the short put. I'm not going to do anything there, put. I'm not going to do anything there, but Premier move or PremierOV, mean, I'll take a look at it. Let's just kind of analyze it, you know, if for no

[6:31:06] other reason than just to learn. Like, we can just learn. We can grow together and uh, and all that kind of stuff. So, I buy, you said 11 days to go. So, 11 days to go. I buy a 56, I sell a 50, and I buy a 47.

[6:31:21] I'm assuming you mean a one by two by one. That's what I'm assuming. You one. That's what I'm assuming. You didn't put that in there. Uh, but hm, maybe you're not one by two by Yeah. H 56. Yeah, you have

[6:31:36] buying and selling there now that I look at it because when I'm looking at the way that this is unbalanced, a lot of times if I'm going to break a wing on a towards a credit. So, this could be a totally different strategy. I mean, like

[6:31:49] totally different strategy. I mean, like if I look at the curve view here, uh I mean, the way this looks, yeah, I mean, I'll be okay if the stock rallies. Uh, and obviously I've got my little tent and then you've got the risk

[6:32:02] little tent and then you've got the risk uh to the downside there and my maximum loss. Yeah, I mean this is an interesting little strategy. I'd have to don't do too many unbalanced butterflies. I don't even do too many

[6:32:14] broken wing butterflies. It's not really my go-to. It's not really my kind of default setting. And so I'd have to think about this a little bit more. But may not get to it. I'll probably see it after because I always scan the chat

[6:32:26] laugh uh in the chat. Or you could just email me at jsholestastylive.com and and looking at and then I can have a better idea kind of what you were thinking there. Uh N1C, hey Dr. Jay, uh what's going on there N1C? Mr. Pillows is here.

[6:32:41] What is going on there? I appreciate you my friend. Uh LS home automation guy. automation guy? I appreciate you. Ryan LP is here. What is going on there Ryan favorite moderator. Laura's actually got

[6:32:54] week, which Ben I mean that's a that's a lateral move for us. Ben is quickly but Laura should be back next week. Uh, I do believe. Uh, Sam, she keeps the chat clean. The viewers happy the do schedule is somehow still finds the time

[6:33:08] to pump the algo. That is correct. That is so correct. Weiss in the house. Good to see you. How would you right now add some short deltas if I'm too bullish or exposed? Yeah, I mean, when I think of adding short deltas, you know, I mean,

[6:33:20] it gets it comes back down to a couple of things, right? And so short deltas can be a little bit tricky to add because you know if I am you know short long deltas are easy to add because uh short puts are much much

[6:33:35] easier to do than short calls right a short put is easy to do because I don't don't mind playing the positive drift you know all that kind of stuff. The little bit different. the standalone short calls can be a little bit more uh

[6:33:49] because there isn't necessarily anything like negative drift. There isn't uh anything like you know kind of this slow grinding lower move in the market. I mean it certainly can happen and you know the perma bear propagandists on the

[6:34:03] happen most likely in the next couple of hours but generally speaking it's not market on a regular basis. And so it can be a little bit trickier to add short deltas. So, my go-tos are typically short call spreads from an option

[6:34:17] short call spreads from an option standpoint, short call spreads, skewed strangles can work really well, and then if you want to bring in a futures outright futures to actually add a little bit of short exposure. But I'll

[6:34:29] just the coming just the coming weeks here. And so, uh, but yeah, I would typically from an optionsson standpoint, I think short call spreads and skew strangles can be great great things to utilize from a short delta short delta

[6:34:44] utilize from a short delta short delta standpoint. Uh, let's see. Lors is in the house. What is up, my friend? I appreciate your flexibility too there, Ash. I appreciate that uh very, very much. Point B is here. Brian Racketton

[6:34:56] is here. Ranch is here. What is up? Uh, Bass 8 is here. What is up there? Basically, what do you think about a debit brokering butterfly with a wider debit spread than a credit spread? You actually want them to move in the money

[6:35:09] and you can make them a free fly shortening the wide side. This might be shortening the wide side. This might be similar to what um uh our friend Premier Move was setting up a second ago maybe. And so when I

[6:35:21] think about a broken butterfly with a wider debit spread than a credit spread side, you actually want them to move in the money and you can make them a free fly shorting the wide side. So a couple of thoughts. So number one, I'd have to

[6:35:33] the answer is not super obvious to me. So I'd have to think about it. Maybe set up a a hypothetical example and email it to me so I can kind of think about it a figure it out here kind of on the fly. But I can address the second part of

[6:35:46] what you said. So the freefly, so any strategy that's kind of like a brokaming butterfly. So the one that you proposed, a standard broking butterfly, a ratio spread, these can all be kind of they can all be morphed and evolved into

[6:36:01] a risk-free butterfly if you want to go that route. and the the mechanism behind that route. and the the mechanism behind with behind which or behind with which the mechanism that you use let's go with that to actually get to get there is

[6:36:14] different depending on the strategy that you have on but um you can get there you can get to the free butterfly starting with any of those strategies and so going to be exclusive to how you set this one up I just wanted to kind of

[6:36:28] butterfly that you use NASDAQ is rattling any ratio spread that you might use. You can turn these guys into free uh free strategies by doing slightly different things along the way. But I will say this, I actually don't

[6:36:42] typically love uh the free butterfly, which may sound crazy to say, but don't forget for every gimme there's a gotcha. And I still haven't found who said that, but man, it is a catchy catchy jingle. I mean, again, you couldn't forget it if

[6:36:57] you tried with that free butterfly. Yes, you have no risk. So, that's a pretty nice gimme. Obviously, you have no risk, only upside. The reality is often times to get any appreciable amount of that upside, you're going to need to thread

[6:37:13] not just one needle, but multiple needles. Like, you're on like a second or third derivative level of needle threading at that point. And so, that's a little bit tricky to do. So, I'm not saying I never do it and it doesn't have

[6:37:25] its home in its place. Like I think it does certainly, but as like the thing that I'm going to kind of lean on as a foundational element, not necessarily foundational element because I think it can be difficult to actually turn a

[6:37:38] profit on those. So those are those are my thoughts. Uh let's see, let's see. a market maker just got nervous because you logged in. Oh, I know that's not true. I know that is absolutely not true. Uh Sam do NVTS has earnings

[6:37:52] tonight with a uh company's name like that. What could possibly go wrong? Is this uh is this Noartis? Nois semiconductor $11 stock. Saml man, you're taking me to

[6:38:07] the dumpsters, man. Like what are we doing here? What are we doing? $11 stock. They got options. They got weekly options. I mean that's pretty good. I mean, the markets are actually not too bad.

[6:38:21] They're not too bad at all. And so, I don't know, man. Like, I mean, the expected move is plus or minus a buck or I'm sorry, plus or minus two $2. I'm kind of thinking we just buy some shares, Samuel. And this is going to be

[6:38:37] this is not a Snapchat position, right? I am not putting my college my college I'm not putting my kids college funds into this stock. Snapchat, of course. NVTS, it hasn't earned the right yet. It hasn't proven the longevity like a

[6:38:52] Snapchat. So, I think let's just buy some shares tonight. Let's buy a 100 shares and uh you know, I mean, the maximum if $1,100. I mean, that's what we were

[6:39:04] losing, you know, per day, per session, per hour in Dell in SLV at one point. And so, that'll be uh that'll be all right. So, I'm kind of thinking, yeah, shares. And this is going to be a very short-term play. We're gonna look to get

[6:39:17] out tomorrow. The smash and grab strategy as I like to say. And so, uh, appreci Oh, wait. I got to write this down. Hold on. NVTS

[6:39:35] perfect. Sergio's in the house. What's up there, Sergio? Uh, let's see. Let's see. Let's see. Uh, Ranch is here. Uh, oh, he's got two cute trades on. One from Mike B and one from Doc J. Now you keep track of which one is the winner

[6:39:48] what happens. We already know what's going to happen. Now I don't know if market, then this is going to be a perfect a perfect little test. Uh let's see. Uh Pre Premiere. Yeah. Uh send me an email about that and I'd be happy to

[6:40:03] Uh DMZ is here. What time is the morning show? 10 a.m. Yeah, that's correct. 10 Eastern. That's right. 9 central. Uh that is absolutely correct. Uh Sam is here. Daniel Perkins is here. Man, what is going on? Markets in turmoil. Don't

[6:40:17] worry, Danny. We are all the way back to uh to almost uned on the NASDAQ. We're green on the S&Ps. We're green on the boomers. I mean, we are uh we are back. boomers. I mean, we are uh we are back. Base eight. I love my kitchen mixer.

[6:40:29] And uh uh my my KitchenAid mixer. So, we actually just got Autumn because Autumn's birthday was last month. The kids just bought I think it was Eli that mixer like one of those deals that's got the little two the little two guys right

[6:40:41] there. We have this the like the mixing stand which is great because I like I actually like to bake. I like to bake myself. I also like to bake with uh the like a little hand mixer deal. Oh my gosh, that's so fun. Is there anything

[6:40:54] more Is there anything more satisfying be whatever. I don't care. It doesn't matter. Bread, pancakes, waffles, whatever. Daddy's chicken. Maybe not daddy's chicken, but you get some you

[6:41:07] get some batter in the bowl and you mix it up with that hand mixer. Oh my gosh. Just to like see the folds and see the swirls. It's very very It's very soothing. Very very soothing. Again, you get that going. You get a little Sarah

[6:41:20] McGlaclin on and then you're really uh you're really getting some things done. And so, uh, but I appreciate you there. Uh, uh, Bate, appreciate you very much, man. I see you guys in the chat. I can't get to all you guys. Vicky Zags is here.

[6:41:32] Joel James is here. Uh, Ranch is here, man. Flub is in the house. Man, look at got to run. I just I I appreciate you guys. so very much. If I can ever help you guys with anything, please shoot me an email. I am j [email protected]

[6:41:46] or we can connect on Twitter. I'm J Schultz F3. I would love to hear from tuned. We do have Tim Knight coming up next with Trading the Charts. In the them heavy, and stay generous. We'll see you guys tomorrow.

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[6:43:58] and it is a surprisingly good day. Uh I've mentioned before that uh the the best days are never the ones you think are going to be the best. Usually the ones that are either blloze or you actually think are going to be bad. This

[6:44:14] day, but my goodness, it's a lot better day, but my goodness, it's a lot better than I thought it would be. Um, and you know, I don't know if they include these little prefaces in the YouTube anymore.

[6:44:26] But lucky you, you're live. We're going to just do it. Then we'll get in the charts in a bit. Um, as you know, we got Taco this weekend as usual. This on again, offagain war has been happening for 4 months now. And, um, in the back

[6:44:44] of my mind, I kind of expected it, which seems odd since I was so short. Um, but you may recall when I saw you last on Friday and we looked at the ENQ, I think the exact words I used were we're at the cusp of support and I also said this

[6:45:00] knows? And that was true for a little while because we were at support and he did taco just like that's what the A and Taco is always. Um and we rallied

[6:45:14] and uh that's not a good feeling because I was very very very short 43 different positions and we gapped higher and really didn't look back and right up

[6:45:26] until you know like 4 in the morning it was just high as it could be like well brace yourselves you know see how see how wretched this day is going to turn how wretched this day is going to turn out to be. No didn't turn out bad at

[6:45:39] all. 43 shorts. I got stopped out of two two. And uh we're going to look at some of the charts in a bit, but the the cold fact of the matter is that um a slight

[6:45:51] plurality of all these positions are actually in the red, which is good cuz actually in the red, which is good cuz I'm a bear. And the good news is you can only taco once. It's not like the man's going to taco every single night. And so

[6:46:04] the benefit from that, this spike we got, it's done. It's done. The white flag can only go up once. And so, um, now we can deal with

[6:46:18] once. And so, um, now we can deal with the meat of this week, which is a title the meat of this week, which is a title wave of earnings from big companies and wave of earnings from big companies and Kevin Wars on Wednesday, which if he has

[6:46:31] a lick of sense will be an interest rate hike. So, it's going to be a really cool hike. So, it's going to be a really cool week. Uh sadly, like any celebration, point. So, this really cool week will pass and it'll be boring again because

[6:46:46] the earnings will be gone and we'll just have, you know, tweets to drag the market around. But, let's try to live in the moment and enjoy this week for what it is. Um, we've got extra time today, too, because um we just do I get you get

[6:47:02] normally do today. So, we're going to we're going to run long and strong. So, let's jump into the charts and thumb through this surprisingly cool day. Um, beginning with the spider. The spider essentially opened at its high and it it

[6:47:18] essentially opened at its high and it it it uh fell nicely. Uh, we are still up. We are green on the screen everywhere except the inq which is down just a little bit. But again, I was so bracing myself for a horrid day that I will

[6:47:32] myself for a horrid day that I will cheerfully take um being up 06%. That'll do fine. Lifetime high was way back here. We've never violated this gap. And uh you know what? The potential

[6:47:46] for bad news is much much much bigger than the potential for good news. Um we're at the you know, we're at the tail of a uh how long's it been now? lost of a uh how long's it been now? lost track 18-year bull run valuations never

[6:48:01] higher and B the whole stock market is basically SpaceX, you know, when it IPOed. It's just insane valuations. So, uh yeah, I will I will happily take this this uh pipsqueak rally that we've got on our hands right now because it wasn't

[6:48:16] that long ago that the white flag going up would have caused 2,000 points on the Dow. Um these days it's just like, yeah, okay, whatever. we'll be bombing again in two days. Whats, you know, get out of my face. So, it's it's not effective

[6:48:30] calls when they opened happened and then then we all move on. So, the diamonds DIA these um the gap was very very tight.

[6:48:42] That was filled and big time that's gone. Now, the resistance on this I believe is essentially uh based on this shooting star right here. We got right up to it and fell away again. We are up and this one about half a percent. This

[6:48:56] was one of the uh two items I mentioned that got stopped out of. Now, this is a big position. The diamonds got stopped right out of there. And I ain't going back cuz this is not as clean a chart as some of the others. The tech stocks tend

[6:49:08] some of the others. The tech stocks tend to be the cleanest ones right now. Um I came into the day short XLK. That did not get stopped out and I added to that today. Uh we have a right triangle pattern on our hands here. Now, XLK is

[6:49:22] is kind of like the cubes. It's composed somewhat differently because it for whatever reason it's somewhat stronger than the cubes recently. We have not completed the right triangle pattern. Here's the here's the base of that right

[6:49:34] now. It's close. It got very very close here and it got within pennies of it here. It hasn't completed it yet. G I would love for it to do so. Um that'd make things even easier. But as it is now, we are down on this about 3/4

[6:49:48] of a percent and I'm remaining uh short this. This is one of I'm I'm short a this. This is one of I'm I'm short a handful of ETFs right now. XLKB1, handful of ETFs right now. XLKB1, FXI, SMH by way of puts um and SPY by

[6:50:02] way of puts. But the the big old ETFs positions I was in I got out of because as I said that I came into the day very heavily committed like a little over heavily committed like a little over 200% committed. That is all cash and a

[6:50:17] whole bunch of margin. And I've scaled that back to about 133%. Because I'd rather not endure the anxiety I did overnight about this this insane market we're in right now. Um particularly as these giant earnings

[6:50:31] come our way. And I'll talk a bit more about a specific example of that in a about a specific example of that in a second. Uh you can see the demolition of tech stocks in an exaggerated fashion by way of KU

[6:50:44] which is the triple leveraged South Korean ETF which 6 months ago nobody cared about and now everybody trades it. Um this has reversed hard away from

[6:50:56] Um this has reversed hard away from around 65 down to about uh what 15. um the the you know it's got a a portion of its value left but it's lost like 75% right here when everybody in South Korea decided to become a trader and down here

[6:51:13] everyone's deciding to go back to whatever they used to do you know dropping milk off on the porch or like you know sewing him god knows what but you know you ain't traders and that this is not easy money it's an easy way to

[6:51:27] get a margin call so this is uh I I think there's plenty more to go uh in terms of semiconductors, memory uh chips and um the whole South Korean market. I think there's plenty downside to go, but I have been taking profits here and

[6:51:42] there. Um I'll mention that a little bit later. Um SOXS, later. Um SOXS, which is the bearish leverage fund, is doing just fine. And what's really cool about this is that leverage funds need a

[6:51:58] trend, a fairly steady trend if they don't want to get just chopped into hamburger. And this one's doing just that. We bottomed on this um some time ago, like at the end of June, and it's been messy, but on the whole, it has

[6:52:13] been strengthening. So we've gone from the low30s up to we're into the mid-50s now and it's in fits and starts and it's and it takes a certain amount of uh insucience about your position to just hang on to it but it's working uh

[6:52:28] hang on to it but it's working uh because sim the the entire AI trade be it uh from the financial side semiconductors um anything to do with hyperscaling has just been getting chopped to pieces. I

[6:52:43] actually I walked my dogs yesterday as I so often do and there was Tim Cook walking and who are the people in your neighborhood? There he was. He lives near me, but I've never seen the man in person before. But

[6:52:55] there he was. I wanted to stop him and say, "Thank you for being a genius about know what? I just want to leave the poor man alone cuz he was talking to a fellow be. But Apple has been the superstar in this whole thing. they

[6:53:09] didn't bother and I'm sure there are heated debates about this but uh again um business case studies will be written about just like how do they dodge this

[6:53:21] bullet that everybody else was leaping in front of um and they they they came in front of um and they they they came out smelling like a it's a a dozen roses from this whole thing. So they just keep leaping to lifetime eyes every day. They

[6:53:34] really profitable products that people love and they don't sink a trillion dollars into like gamles. So good for dollars into like gamles. So good for Apple. Uh speaking of gamles, uh spot

[6:53:46] Apple. Uh speaking of gamles, uh spot the trend if you can. Uh here's SpaceX. What two words do I love usually that can be applied to this every day, but I don't really like to say them with this one. Lifetime lows. Every single day.

[6:54:01] one. Lifetime lows. Every single day. Lifetime lows. So Elon's reputation as an infallible business god has been dragged through the mud. Um Tesla is a disaster. SpaceX is a disaster. And uh I've seen a lot of the more popular

[6:54:15] tweets these days have to do with like promises Elon's broken or things that have never come true. Like they're long lists. There will there will not be a Martian colony, by the way, in case you're wondering. Um they report their

[6:54:28] earnings for the first time next Tuesday. and the uh lockups release beginning on I think the 11th of August. Um and I guess eventually be it'll be okay. Uh

[6:54:42] I guess eventually be it'll be okay. Uh it's been a disaster so far. Um I'm not it's been a disaster so far. Um I'm not selling any myself. Um but uh yeah, it's it's it's ugly. It could be a very long time before this thing

[6:54:55] time before this thing uh recaptures its uh its IPO price. Years maybe. certainly months. But it's interesting to watch in a sort of gallows humor kind of way. I can tell you this though the fever about getting

[6:55:08] the IPOs. G N E gone. This is uh VCX Fundrise Innovation. Now you can have a part of the IPOs before everybody. No, nobody

[6:55:20] cares anymore. No one wants to get in on the ground floor of Enthropic or Data Bricks or OpenAI or anything like that because they've seen the results. So, this is just plunging. What is it down today? 28%

[6:55:35] uh heading toward a lifetime low close. Um the Yeah, IPOs, mega IPOs dead, DE A dead. Something really positive has to happen to to reinvigorate it. And I

[6:55:49] like, you know what, we're not going to go public this year. Never mind, you know, because this is getting to be a chilly environment and we're what, like 1% off lifetime highs or something and there's this like ice storm going on.

[6:56:02] Like no interest. Um, but as I say, Apple um, which reports on Thursday afternoon, they have been the superstar in this although, you know, I wouldn't dare buy the thing these these levels trillion dollar company. Um, there it

[6:56:17] trying to squeeze a little more juice out of that lemon, but it is uh for those who have held on uh through the years, God bless them. And this is like years, God bless them. And this is like generational wealth maker. Um but the

[6:56:29] broad theme that I've been obsessed with and that that even with tacoing and even with white flags being hoisted uh is the hyperscaling efforts just collapsing. um

[6:56:42] we are seeing uh this is you know like a in in the big short timetable this is in in the big short timetable this is sort of the the 2006 feel to it you know it's not obvious what's what's really happening but there there's signs that

[6:56:55] things are a mess and so you know here's just a Whitman sampler of the kind of stocks and what they're doing uh coreweave big in hyperscaling um continuing to sink uh uh Nebus for those of you in the San Francisco Bay area you

[6:57:10] know as well as I do, hop in your car, drive up and down 101 because I I've traveled from time to time and um you know, I'll go to some places like Philadelphia or something like that and like you see a 100 billboards and

[6:57:25] like 98 of them will be personal injury lawyers and I'm like gross. I don't want to live here. Um just all ambulance chasers. come to the Bay Area, you look at a 100 billboards, my hand to god, 99 will be AI and not consumer oriented.

[6:57:42] It's not like come to Facebook or use AI. It's like really deep tech stuff and these are on billboards. Uh but like Nebius and I I've been involved in technology since 1979 and a lot of the words I don't understand. So, it's very

[6:57:56] arcane and very bizarre and certainly reminds you of 1999 when all the billboards were internet companies that do not exist anymore. But yeah, Nebius is one of those. Caterpillar, as I've

[6:58:09] said, um I've got puts on this and it's taken a tumble today very much in the uh AI space, weirdly. Um, and Nvidia, I made mention this on the morning show

[6:58:21] that uh I I saw a headline about them wanting to financially back a quarter wanting to financially back a quarter trillion dollars in uh financing for OpenAI to build out their data centers. Um, market's not really smiling about

[6:58:33] that idea and I think that's what help takes semiconductors down almost 5% on this ugly messy chart. I have no position on this although I appreciate position on this although I appreciate the help on SMH which is here. Um, now

[6:58:47] the help on SMH which is here. Um, now let's take a moment to coitate on SMH. Um, this is one of those items I trim back on today just because this market makes me nervous. Um, I have September puts on this. Uh, I have sold 40% of

[6:59:03] them today at a nice profit. That is probably a mistake. They will probably be worth a lot more before they expire in September. Um yeah, almost almost in almost certainly an error on my part, but I want to breathe a little easier.

[6:59:18] Um the support is right here. If we can get below today's lows, that will complete a very handsome topping pattern and I think would send this thing into a and I think would send this thing into a free fall. Um we peaked on this. This is

[6:59:32] when people that there was no worry on anybody's brow back on June 22nd. that anybody's brow back on June 22nd. that since June 22nd, things have bit by bit um fractured, but in some cases like this one, it's

[6:59:48] not done yet. There needs to be more selling. Um so, we'll see. But, uh it's listen, this could be plunging before this week

[7:00:00] is over. It really depends, especially on the MAG, the four of the mag seven stocks that are announcing this week. And I've done a video yesterday about the Mag 7 that we'll be releasing probably between today and tomorrow. Um

[7:00:16] some of the individual items uh in that realm that are continuing to fall. You have applied materials which has fallen from the 700s down to the lower 500s. Uh from the 700s down to the lower 500s. Uh AMD which is relatively robust but it is

[7:00:29] falling today by almost 5%. Uh we've got Corning which has just been a calamitous fall. uh it has uh dropped from around 270 down to around 140 or so. So we're

[7:00:41] approaching like these are approaching like 50% loss levels. Um Micron Mu this like 50% loss levels. Um Micron Mu this also peaked uh late in June. Its pattern is also not complete but we're getting there. It might complete might. Uh the

[7:00:58] low that we want to break is right there that bar. And if it does complete, that's a very nice head and shoulders top right there. But a pattern that's not done isn't done. You know, you can't count on it to do anything except be a

[7:01:11] possibility, maybe even a probability, but it's not done yet. Uh Veter Interactive also down also short this one of one of the newer faces here. I didn't even know the stock existed a week ago, but I'm shorted now. A AOI. Uh

[7:01:27] this is also down uh over 2%. Got a few more specific examples here. Sienna CIE and this has definitely completed its pattern. We had a nice price gap here pattern. We had a nice price gap here and uh broke this level here and this

[7:01:41] became a range. Bang, bang, bang, bang, bang. Then broke that and now we're we're beneath that. So uh support became resistance. resistance. Support became resistance. And so now we

[7:01:54] another line down there as the new support like so. something like something like Um, I'll make a nice little green there to kind of emphasize this roll. So,

[7:02:09] that's what this is. That's what's happening with the Sienna. Uh, Quido CRDO. Uh, this one's slip sliding away slowly Uh, this one's slip sliding away slowly but surely. Uh, SanDisk SNDK. Wow, we

[7:02:21] look at this. The storage ones um really getting hit down 10%. And this is nominally very expensive. This is $140 plus drop. So we on this one we've fallen from like, you know, $2500 down to about half that level. And it was not

[7:02:37] that long ago, you know, back here when it's just like how high can this go? It just keeps lunging forward. These were the kinds of stocks that had like 4,000% gains in the span of a year and incredible pees. Uh well, now we have

[7:02:50] our answer. We see how high it could go. It's not going high anymore. It's how It's not going high anymore. It's how low can it go now. Um, one specific example which kind of goes back to my theme of of trimming back back risk to

[7:03:02] theme of of trimming back back risk to some degree is this fella here, Seagate. weeks ago, I wouldn't even dare short this thing. And I did I did start to short it and it went well. And then last week I went completely off my rocker.

[7:03:17] week I went completely off my rocker. Uh, here I bought um I I bought a put singular cuz these are very expensive. So, I bought a put on it and let's say it was $15,000 and uh on Friday the stock fell and the

[7:03:34] put went up and today the stock fell and the put went up but I sold for a profit. the put went up but I sold for a profit. Um why? Well, a couple of reasons. One,

[7:03:46] uh this was a September put and for me that's too close for comfort. I I want lots and lots and lots of time. And two, they report tomorrow after the close and I did not want to watch and see it up $200 or

[7:04:01] something like that. What's probably going to happen is this stock gets counting what the profits would have been. But the volatility on this is very high and I would just in this case I'd rather just take the profits and be done

[7:04:17] with it. So, that worked out, but I will not participate um in STX uh on Tuesday by way of an options position. Little too crazy even for me. Um WDC, I'm short at this one also. And this is also down 21 bucks, a

[7:04:34] little more than 4%. So, all in all, things things heading in the right direction. Um as far as crude oil goes, what with the war and such, uh this is down really hard. Uh I don't have any any energy positions nor do I do I

[7:04:48] any energy positions nor do I do I intend to. Um this is getting repelled uh very fiercely. I compared this trend line this morning to sort of a rubber band because we we pushed against it on Thursday. It stretched up Friday even

[7:05:02] before taco happened. We were repelled. So, in a way, Curo kind of gave the heads up that there ain't going to be no big action because it's funny if there's they talk about because there's always talk of war, but whenever it's like

[7:05:17] we're going to end civilization or this is going to be the biggest one yet, you know, uh weapons like you've never seen before, all when it reaches 11 on the bluster scale, then it's not then then everything's going to get shut to zero.

[7:05:32] happen. That's precisely what took place over the weekend because heading into at the end of Friday it was just like boy oh boy oh boy is going to be big. It's like okay well they're just going to say they're going to turn it off. We're

[7:05:45] going to get taco. That's exactly what happened and the crude oil market kind of knew that. That's what the red bar is all about. And today it's getting hurled lower. My dumb guess is this is going to go

[7:05:58] flying over the trend line again. My dumb guess is that we are going to uh go blasting back into the triple digits on oil. For the moment with that delicious taco and cheese sprinkled on top, uh we are briefly down, but won't be long, I

[7:06:14] don't think. And I'm not talking my book here. As I say, no energy positions in either direction. Uh as far as the inq goes, this is kind of cool because we have today finally for the first time broken support. And at the moment, we

[7:06:30] are just like I saw you on Friday right at the cusp of support, but we're a little below it right now. And the lows today pierced it very firmly. I mean, Friday it pierced by a penny or two. Today was just like clearly below it,

[7:06:45] but we are there's a counter trend at the moment, but I think the damage is done. And I think it's entirely likely that before this week is out, we are going to see the the fruits of this demolition of the support and you're

[7:06:59] going to see this thing take a hard tumble. And if it does, especially if it's really vivacious, uh I will cover more aggressively and wait for a retrace more aggressively and wait for a retrace back to this same line at this end as as

[7:07:13] back to this same line at this end as as things stand now as I said, but 133% not bugeyed bearish like on Friday. little more sensible uh counting my blessings on the day that it worked out but a little less crazy.

[7:07:26] So 133% like I said uh but this is going to be a very interesting week in that to be a very interesting week in that respect. And uh in closing on the ES you can plainly see the ES has not been as weak as as the ENQ but it's got its own

[7:07:40] support line and it's got its own prospect for failure which is that line right there. And so we've been uh above that line ever since June 12th. Went ripping above it. And since then, bang de bang bang. All in this upper, it's

[7:07:56] not exactly half, but it's roughly the upper half of this range. And that is the level we need to pierce. It'll take some doing, but if it does so, I think it'll be simultaneous with the failure of the um of the aforementioned INQ

[7:08:13] support. So, you know, I think lessons learned here uh regarding my own experience over the past 22 hours um is twofold.

[7:08:26] One, to trust the charts and to use the the stop-loss levels and the drawn objects, the what the truth the chart reveals as your north star

[7:08:39] instead of emotions. And the other thing is has to do with And the other thing is has to do with timeline because all my angst was really based on a momentby-moment concern. Um, and I got to tell you, and I said the

[7:08:53] same thing this morning, that every close I've made in the past few weeks, every diminishment of risk I've regretted. And I'll regret these, too. I regretted. And I'll regret these, too. I bet you. Um, so trust the charts, trust

[7:09:07] the breakdowns, trust the big picture. Uh, I think we have some exciting times ahead and I think this day has been just one morsel of that. So, it's nice to spend extra time with you. I will say fairly well and uh we're going to head

[7:09:23] into the meat of this week. It's going to be cool. So, I'll see you tomorrow. to be cool. So, I'll see you tomorrow. Take care. Bye-bye.

[7:09:39] their value over time as they get closer to expiration. That's why they're called wasting assets. Theta is how fast the options value changes in a day, not taking any other factors into account. Way far out, an options price doesn't

[7:09:53] change as much as time passes. But at about 60 days till expiration, the time part of the options price starts falling. And at around 45 days to expirations, it starts dropping much faster. If you bought an option, you'll

[7:10:06] feel time to gay pushing down on that option's price. If you sold the option, keeping the credit from the opening trade becomes more likely. Even though options lose their value over time, tasty mechanics say to exit the trade

[7:10:20] near 21 days till expiration. Remember, gamma risk gets stronger in the last several days and stock movements will have more of an effect on options prices. Again, theta is just the rate at which options lose part of their value.

[7:10:34] which options lose part of their value. Pretty simple.

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[7:12:09] >> Bring the alarm. >> Hey, bring the alarm, boys. Turn up the charm. Listen up, y'all. Get out the damn song. It's the last call. damn song. It's the last call. >> Hey, the last call. The last call.

[7:12:21] trading day here. A little bit of abbreviated last call. Taking it solo. I'm your host, Chris Veio. You're watching Tasty Live. These final 17 16 by a market that is proving a little resilient, bouncing back ever so

[7:12:37] slightly, but maybe the damage is done. We can go right to the charts. S&P 500 We can go right to the charts. S&P 500 7448 12. It's still barely up. Not even a full point right now. We can call it one point here today. 7447 right now.

[7:12:50] Not too not too great. The NASDAQ is off the lows. It was up 1.3 1.4% earlier. It was down a little bit more than that. It's now back only off 100.0.35% to the downside. The Dow is up by half a percent and your Russell 2000 is up by

[7:13:04] uh 2/3 of a percent here. Volatility of course over the course of the day has come off the highs but is still well elevated from the gap open lower that we had at the start of the uh trading session here. We opened up at 1762

[7:13:18] settling pretty close to that Friday close of 1858 right now trading 1881. Uh V futures themselves are up across the curve here today. You could see that the curve here today. You could see that the VIX uh August expiry is at 1910. We

[7:13:33] can go over to the U26 for example. That's in here at 1982. So, well, you know, it's interesting little bit of a twist there. Curve getting a touch flatter. Uh, where are the winners and losers in today's session? The

[7:13:48] but there are a few specs of them. We can go to XRT, the retail ETF of all places. This is your top performing sector ETF uh thus far in this Monday session. What's driving this move so far? Believe it or not, the top holdings

[7:14:03] it's a fairly just in terms of distribution. Not many assets are overweighted compared to others. Groupon is the highest weighted uh stock for is the highest weighted uh stock for example in the XRT ETF at 1.78%. Real

[7:14:16] the Real Real is next at 1.75%. So these are in a lot of like the names that people would look to here. I think Bath and Body Works, Warby Parker, Maple Bear. Um but obviously very consumer facing and those are still performing

[7:14:28] well. You also have the uh the discretionary ETF performing a little likewise a surprise considering this constituents here. Amazon, Tesla, Home Depot, McDonald's are your four top four constituents. So Amazon being the

[7:14:43] primary portion of that down by 0.22%. Tesla likewise off by 1.37%. still trying to buy the dip here in Tesla? 14.5% fall around its earnings

[7:14:55] the other day. It's finding follow through here today. I I saw something are partial to this. And it's a view that Mike Butler's been sharing here on air for a few weeks time. It's the idea that people's attention is now split

[7:15:08] between Tesla and SpaceX. Before, if you wanted to play SpaceX, you effectively had to buy Tesla. Now, the folks who are interested in Musk for his space odyssey, for his electric vehicle and robotics machinations, their attention

[7:15:22] of a crowd to prop up both names. Is that a concern for you if you're a bull or doesn't even matter? I I have seen some names uh try to play some trades here across the session. Earnings are coming up next week on August 4th. So,

[7:15:36] SpaceX earnings trade, you're probably looking out at 11 days to expiration. kind of trade on, especially if you're trading earnings this week with the whole slew of big names that are coming up. Your Microsoft, your Meta, your

[7:15:49] Amazon, your Apple. Uh but right now if you're just going out to the bottom of the expected range here, you're on the trading tab here on the platform, you look to that top right in your IVX, you see that number in parenthesis, $2245

[7:16:03] platform, when you're looking amongst the strikes, it's going to be that brown bar. So we're doing the short strike just at that brown bar. Long strike a dollar or two wide. Probably not worth it just yet. And I say that because our

[7:16:15] looking to do something like sell volatility which in this name quite volatility which in this name quite elevated 104 IVR coupled with that 155% raw implied volatility you bought about a third of the strike of the width of

[7:16:28] for here on the credit and it's only 22 cents 22%. So dollar wide not nearly enough. We'll probably keep this in our pocket and look out next week. But that happening this week here because earnings are going to be picking up um

[7:16:41] after hours. If you're trading new core, Welltowwer, or Cadence Design Systems, which I don't think many people would be. Uh those are after hours here today. And I suppose we should start with the stuff that's coming out early in the

[7:16:53] morning. We do have our Coca-Cola, for example. Coke trading up uh 2.17% here today. Nice day for some of these staple names as it were. uh 80 IVR right now, it's pretty light in the mid20s. Nevertheless, the goal here is to find a

[7:17:09] trade. So, if we're looking at 8081, we're going up to 87.88 just on the outside of the expected move. It's a dollar wide. You're getting about 30 cents of credit here. Actually fits pretty well. I'm going to send it.

[7:17:22] Risking 71 bucks to make $29. 65% probability of profit. There might be something to do in Coke and Coke's not a semiconductor. So looking for like a 10 or 15% swing I don't think is necessarily uh the risk that I'm too

[7:17:35] that with the hyperscalers what have you. Um Boeing likewise out tomorrow morning. They are expecting a 34cent loss in their earnings per share. Believe it or not we take a look at the trade tab for the 4 days expiration. Are

[7:17:48] could go wrapped around the one standard deviation move which just sits outside the expected barrier. What are we looking at on $250? uh wide strike, you're looking at about 81 cents a credit, which is pretty good.

[7:18:03] Ideally, 83 cents a credit if you're going to go for a third. But hey, it's this up. Let's see if we can get Phil today. Uh 85 cents of credit on that

[7:18:15] short iron condor here in Boeing. So, look, some of these tomorrow, they're the morning. Your Coca-Cola, your Boeing, they're not the ones that are broader trend for the market, but there's still some decent fall. And

[7:18:28] risk-to-reward when you actually take a look to grab uh grab an opportunity there. Elsewhere besides Boeing, there's S&P Global, SPGI, which taking a look where do we sit right on the outside of that expected move, uh $25 wide, 71

[7:18:47] cents of credit, that juice may not be worth the squeeze? And surely a 70 IVR with a 58 implied volatility. We don't need really need to look there. Um,

[7:18:59] three more tomorrow morning that might draw interest. Corning, which has been a real runner here, both to the upside and to the downside in recent weeks. Uh, it's given back all of its gains since now April. So, April to the high that we

[7:19:13] had here on the last day of June. The stock doubles and it's basically given up that here henceforth. But it's an 87 IVR and unlike what we just saw with SPGI, there is really implied high volatility on the board right now. Uh

[7:19:27] days to expiration going out a dollar wide just for the sake of this conversation. Can we go fishing and see anything? We're going to have to change this because of how the strikes are staggered down here. Let's go five wide

[7:19:39] for the sake of this 122. So $5 wide strike ideally looking for a $167 of credit. We're pulling in a $1.70 of one at the one standard deviation move. 64% probability of profit. Risking

[7:19:55] 327 to make 171. A clean 2:1. Got to send it. Fits the mechanics. Fits the criteria. Filled. Done. And then Glasgow Perkins GSK.

[7:20:07] Let's see here. ADR. Not a lot of all. And we'll go 50 cents. We'll go a dollar wide, folks. What does that look like? 38 cents a credit dollar that look like? 38 cents a credit dollar wide strikes fits the criteria. 62438

[7:20:22] 59% probability of profit. Okay, so there we go. We have some earnings things to do uh for the morning tomorrow. Visa, Clack, and STX are in on your earnings scorecard for tomorrow, those are trades that can be put on I

[7:20:35] think during the day. Uh saving the capital for you know what we just used and Visa. And certainly for Clack and STX being some of the semiconductor names in a tape like this today, they are feeling a little bit more heat. Uh

[7:20:49] strikes that you want that are more appropriate for the earnings as we get closer to the date here. But for the sake of this conversation, you know, I look at clack right now. I'm looking at it 25 days. There are no four days here.

[7:21:01] So if you're playing these earnings, you got to give yourself a little bit more earnings trade. If you're doing a short vault trade, you know, will it work right away? Probably not. Uh, as TP as Liz, as Jamal, as Mike often point out,

[7:21:15] reason why you trade the earnings on the shorter expiration cycles. The V gets crushed in that cycle. At 25 days, there's a lot that still can happen out here, but for the sake of this, you're going $2 wide on these strikes, right at

[7:21:28] going $2 wide on these strikes, right at the expected move, $1.90 and $2 wide. I certainly getting paid to take the risk. Uh whether or not that's something that here. And I might be leaning a little bit to the downside than the upside

[7:21:42] right now. Same thing for STX, by the way. Similar setup here. Uh, expiration, but you can see with STX at that 4day strike, that 4day strike, you go $5 wide at the expected move and

[7:21:57] you are getting paid quite handsomely because of all the risk in here. 170% volatility, $5 wide credit collecting $2.90 or $5 wide strike collecting $2.90 in credit. That's pretty spicy. That's a lot. You're getting paid uh better than

[7:22:12] half, more than 50% almost. Yeah, pretty good. Almost 60% there. But I I'm not see any reason to do them right now. If you're just tuning in though, hey refer a friend while we're here. You notice that I'm doing this show alone.

[7:22:27] It is often the case that you find yourself trading by yourself. But it can be better. Find yourself a friend to trade with. Go to tastyrade.com/refer a friend. tastyrade.com/refer a friend. $100 for you, $100 for your

[7:22:40] friend. Refer and referee, they both get 100 bucks. tastyrade.com/refer here at the top of the hour for overtime. So, it's not just straight 45 minutes of me. And I appreciate you still tuning in. We can go back to those

[7:22:54] the charts here as we wind down this final 6 minutes or so of the trading earnings reports that are coming up tomorrow in the morning. Coca-Cola, tomorrow in the morning. Coca-Cola, Boeing, SPGI, Corning, uh GSK, and then

[7:23:09] finally the last one, UPS here, which is one of the morning reports, which we have not covered. It's down 1.4% today. Uh in line, by the way, with the broader transportation ETF, IYT, which is having its own little bit of a breakdown here

[7:23:24] in this session, just to keep it simple. We will then move that here and you there. And you can see how we're breaking up trends and former swing lows. And really, no matter how many times you try to slice and dice this to

[7:23:37] you're a bull like I've been, today feels like a little bit more of a down structural weakness in the broader structure, uh, we can head back over to UPS, which is falling back to its one month and hasn't really done much of

[7:23:50] anything against there. 4 days to expiration, 78 volatility. We'll go a dollar wide to see what we can price with.

[7:24:02] Not bad at all. In fact, 47 cents a credit on a dollar wide strike at 4 days to expiration. Give a little bit more breathing room here. 43 cents a credit, not a dollar wide strike. You know, you got to do it when the market's going to

[7:24:18] game. So, there we have it. We swing back to our indexes here. Uh we have an S&P 500 down 1.5 points now, folks. We've lost another half a point since I popped on air here. Uh it's a market that's been really pinned since that

[7:24:32] early morning US selloff. A morning selloff that started right at the US open. We were clap happy as a clam going through the pre-market today. Nothing continued lower most of the session and yet stocks still decided to come off. So

[7:24:47] there you have it. market here getting a little antsy ahead of a a Fed rate decision on Wednesday, ahead of the Meta, the Microsoft, the Amazon, the Apple earnings, the big four this week that could really just decide the whole

[7:25:00] what are we looking for right now for these earnings? I mean, I I think what we've seen here is that we have to prove that earning strength can broaden out with another capex scare at this point in time. Um, every time one of these

[7:25:14] more money than previously expected, the market's been punishing their stock. If Tesla, look across the board in recent cycles. So, yeah, the Fed gets the final word of sorts on Wednesday, but the market also wants to know that there's

[7:25:29] discipline going on here, that they're not just building bridges to nowhere right now. I think you got to stay tactical and con tactical, but maybe somewhat constructive in this tape. uh depending upon where you're finding your

[7:25:42] most interesting part of this whole tends to be a little bit more growth sensitive than everything else. So while I bicker about the fact that we have uh problems in AI and valuations, if this

[7:25:56] was more growth related, I would be of the mindset that the small caps would be down a little bit more. So, keeping that in mind here, uh, expiration coming up at the end of this week, we were looking at a short put spread here in the

[7:26:08] at a short put spread here in the Russell, 2875, 2850. It's now at 25 days to expiration, so it could be taken off for a very small gain right now. At this point in time, the market is still holding the level 2930 or so. It's a

[7:26:21] now your 50-day moving average. It's where the market bottomed out Thursday, Friday, last week. If you break 2930, we'll call it, Russell has a problem. If you're not breaking 2930, then sitting with short strikes below the 50-day, as

[7:26:37] past week or two as this thing has kind of just ground to the downside a little bit, it can still work. Still working technically speaking. So, I'm going to ride that out as well. U Russell's also not a tech name this week, so I'm not

[7:26:51] really too worried about the Wednesday Thursday episode here. Could the Fed disrupt this all? Yeah, the Fed could derail this all. Is Kevin Worse the kind of guy to hike rates because of a crisis? I'm going to take the under. Has

[7:27:06] anyone actually looked up Kevin Worsh's biography? How he got here? It's not that impressive. It's an interesting path. He's Fed chair, so I'm not gonna not gonna slate him that much. But in terms of actual policy experience when

[7:27:18] he was Fed governor, and you look at the records of those meetings throughout the 2000s during the global financial crisis and thereafter, Worsh missed the crisis. He has one of the worst track records of any Fed official in recent history over

[7:27:31] the past 30 years or so in terms of projecting crisis and figuring out how to work around them. So if the mantra for the Fed is they're always fighting the last war, they're always late, war seems like the kind of guy who's going

[7:27:45] to look through this inflation right now and not hike rates. So yeah, there's a 40% chance that the Fed hikes this Wednesday. I'm going to call nonsense on start of the available data series for

[7:27:58] Fed funds futures, the Federal Reserve has not surprised the market to that degree. If there is in excess of 55% odds the day of a Fed meeting for a move, it has happened 100% of the time. So right now at 60% it's good as gold.

[7:28:12] If we get to 5347, we have a different conversation on hand. But as it stands here, if we go into the market meeting on Wednesday with this pricing, we're probably not looking at a Fed hike. So how do we play that?

[7:28:26] Fed here has done this thing where when they don't hike when the market thinks the market feels is necessary, the long end of the yield curve tends to blow out. Last week we had the push down through 111 and that long put spread

[7:28:39] that uh TP and I were in today got out of the one that was sitting uh here around 25 days to expiration. Why? Because the market had bounced back breakdown point. So if oil keeps falling, this can bounce back. Maybe it

[7:28:53] sets up a sell opportunity here. That's where I'll be looking at the long end of stocks for an end of day close. That brings us just back above water. 60 66 points higher on today's session as we go into that close 7454. The NASDAQ

[7:29:09] tell the whole story because it was up by 1.4 earlier in the day. Oil prices, they continue their plunge. They're down 8.3% and they continue to slide here into the close. So, worth noting perhaps giving stocks a little bit of a kick up.

[7:29:23] We are done here on Last Call though. A little bit of a solo episode here today. going to take a brief break here on Tasty Live. Thankfully though, the solo show ends and my partner Crlia Spivacc will be here. Overtime coming up next.

[7:29:37] will be here. Overtime coming up next. See you there.

[7:29:53] When you are assigned, you are ultimately short an option that's in the money and the counterparty has the ability to exercise that option. So, if you are assigned, it means your option against your will ultimately has turned

[7:30:06] into 100 shares of long or short stock. >> What does a green scratch mean? Oo, a green scratch refers to stubbornness getting the best of you. And when I say you, I mean me. Uh, green scratch refers to rolling a position, defending a

[7:30:21] position, and instead of just closing it for less than uh loss that you're seeing, or maybe a $100 loss, $50 loss. A green scratch is when you close it for maybe a 5-cent winner, 10-cent winner, 15-cent winner. Just the ability to see

[7:30:35] that green number on your screen and get out in a profitable way as opposed to a out in a profitable way as opposed to a loss.

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[7:31:46] up. Right. Right. Right. It's still Monday, July 27th, 2026. This is Overtime. I'm your host, Chris Veio in New York. He's your co-host, IPC in San Francisco. We're here for the next 27 minutes as we wind down what was

[7:32:00] minutes as we wind down what was uh jumpy uh name it a two-faced trading day where we start the session up with a gap open higher thanks to the weekend news Trump's threat to present Iran with a bomb it had never seen before of

[7:32:13] because apparently we ran out of those kind of bombs already. Uh, Ilia, the market sees oil gap open to the downside and continue to run, basically closing at session lows here. We're at $81.97. We're just about four or five off the

[7:32:27] session lows. So, it's an 8.21% loss. So, when oil is down 5% earlier, stocks were on their highs. It was good news. S&P up 0.8%. NASDAQ up 1.4. So,

[7:32:39] Ilia, stocks must have had a fantastic day. Must have been up like 3% or so, >> Oh, yeah. What does President What does President Trump like to say? Wrong. >> NASDAQ here. >> Fake news. I'm sorry.

[7:32:55] >> Oh, you have a pretty good Trump. I've never heard you do that before. 0.3 0.33% to the downside uh for the NASDAQ off from the 1.4 gain. The S&P 500 basically flat. 02 after being up, you know, 50

[7:33:10] odd points or so. Ilia, I thought today was going to be when I said that I felt be calm, there'd be no catalyst and the market would just basically be pinned. I gap open higher. >> Not that it'd be pinned at flat for the

[7:33:25] >> so kind of right. >> Market would at least take their good news and go, "Right, okay, good news. Now stop and wait for the big earnings Now stop and wait for the big earnings and the Fed." Uh,

[7:33:38] >> I guess not. I mean, uh, tomorrow we have earnings that are coming out. through them on last call and put on a whole bunch of trades related to them. Some of them got filled, some didn't. So, you know, take what you can get. Um,

[7:33:50] other than that though, IA, it's really Wednesday. That's the day here this week. But what surprises you the most about this move lower this morning? I There had to be a headline of something that was driving this. And yet, today

[7:34:03] catalyst or headline beyond the news of the weekend. There really wasn't. Um, you could look at the abysmal durable goods data if you wanted to. Um, and

[7:34:19] >> Market reacted an hour after it came out. out. >> Yeah. 0.3% versus 2 and a half expected >> Yeah. 0.3% versus 2 and a half expected for the headline. Uh, 0.6%

[7:34:31] for the headline. Uh, 0.6% for uh the core excluding transport and the GDP. Now forecast gets revised down to 1.6%. So the leak in GDP continues. >> Yeah. I mean you say durable goods. This

[7:34:46] is the 8:30 Eastern candle here when the the data were released. I don't even show because it was just so unremarkable in terms of action. >> No one cared. So you get this then spillover as soon as the US market opens

[7:35:00] But then we kind of just stay there all day. And so, okay, we we washed out of day. And so, okay, we we washed out of the we closed the gap from the uh oil spike. Further evidence to your point that the war trade is dead as we knew it

[7:35:13] from March, April, May, right? If the war trade was alive, oil being down this much should have sent gold skyrocketing. Should have sent the dollar plunging. Should have sent stocks to the moon. Should have sent y spiraling lower. And

[7:35:26] >> So, >> nope. Market has changed things. >> Yeah. No. To your credit and to your point, I mean, like that's when back in May, Ilia, when I was screaming, the war is over. The mark like the bombs may be

[7:35:40] loves taps, the war is over. >> This is even further to that point. Like catalyst. We reacted to it. >> We have bigger fish, which is crazy to say when right now 10% of the world's oil supply is just like permanently

[7:35:56] >> and that's just oil, by the We're not even talking about all the other things that are trapped uh in >> right and yet the market is >> could not care. >> No, no, no, no. Doesn't matter. Doesn't

[7:36:10] matter. And in my mind, this is even more ominous. Oh, for sure. Because they go, you know what? We're not going to have an inflation problem because of a commodity shock. What commodity shock if there's no demand?

[7:36:25] there not be Oh. Oh yeah. What if the Fed has to cut next? Oh yeah, that's a whole other thing, right? You're not afraid of an oil price spike

[7:36:40] if there's disinflation because the economy has fallen off a cliff. And if you look at the Atlanta Fed's GDP now forecast, we get GDP this week. By the way, 1.6 the data is this week. We're close.

[7:36:57] the data is this week. We're close. This actually matters now. reconcile something with an important anecdote I saw uh earlier today.

[7:37:09] Uh last Thursday, July 23rd, 2026, there were 153,359 commercial flights worldwide, according to Flight Radar.

[7:37:23] >> why does that matter? That was the busiest day for commercial air travel ever. So, I'm trying to I'm trying to It makes me think that, you know, oil prices are coming in. Maybe maybe this little turn

[7:37:37] here in some of these airlines is worth playing. But I'm trying to square this. globally. >> No, well, we, you know, this we're about to teeter in recession. Let's get all of

[7:37:50] our travel in quickly. I don't no one panic travels like this on a worldwide >> right >> work through this to me like I see more like stagnation potentially high inflation with low growth because of AI

[7:38:03] more so than recession risk when I'm seeing things like this happen when I I So square this with me. Obviously I'm going to be looking long some airlines tomorrow which funny how Thursday last week marked the

[7:38:17] bottom in the airlines when we get this big travel day. Yeah. economy then? I mean, like, how can you square those two facts? >> I don't know that you necessarily have to square them. Um, I don't think you

[7:38:32] to square them. Um, I don't think you necessarily have a story here in this necessarily have a story here in this one data point. one data point. Um, it is certainly worth watching.

[7:38:46] Um, it is certainly worth watching. I would say you look at the issue as it I would say you look at the issue as it presents itself in the aggregate and the GDP number looks like it's going to be weaker and the real question is

[7:39:01] going to be why is it going to be weaker because the first quarter and I've been pounding the table on this for months the biggest scare wasn't that GDP only

[7:39:14] came back halfway from the government shutdown. Right before the government shutdown, the economy was growing at give or take four%. Second quarter, third quarter of last year once it kind of shook off the tariff spook in the

[7:39:27] of shook off the tariff spook in the first quarter. the fourth. Growth almost stops. Almost. Not quite.

[7:39:39] We come back in the first quarter about halfway. 2.1%. That's half of four. Fine, whatever. That's not the part that's scary. The part that's scary is that the consumer did almost nothing to give us that 2%.

[7:39:55] It was almost completely in the investment side of the GDP u calculus and that's not sustainable. It's not sustainable because it's only

[7:40:07] 14% of the economy. And if it's generating inflation like we see real rates tell us it's generating inflation because they've been surging as as you and I have been talking about since the hypers scalers made their capeex ideas

[7:40:22] known in April. Since then real rates have been shooting higher >> shooting higher. Then then you look at that and you go well

[7:40:34] >> well you know you talk about >> what is kryptonite for the economy >> real rates but like this is I'm trying to this is to me one of the more alarming charts that I've come across today the 321 uh the 321 crack spread

[7:40:48] >> yeah yeah >> okay good friends at macro uh macro micro whose charts I use a lot >> right so the 321 crack spread just as a taking a step back here um it it approx approximates the gross margin from

[7:41:02] turning three barrels of WTI into two barrels of gas and one barrel of barrels of gas and one barrel of distillate. Okay, when refined products blowing out basically. All right, that's one way to think about it. So why do we

[7:41:17] look at this here? Yes, oil has come in but we go over to gasoline which is clearly not coming in. We go over to heating oil. In fact, anywhere over to heating oil. In fact, anywhere you go into distillates, anywhere you go

[7:41:32] you go into distillates, anywhere you go into the product part of the energy mix, >> anywhere, it looks terrible. Looks terrible. It looks terrible. So, you could buy the gas crack, which is long RB, short CL.

[7:41:45] You could buy the distillic crack, which is long heating oil, short CL. But when we think about the inflation pressures in the system area, I mean, it's that spread. It's this 321 crack spread here that just underscores this this serious

[7:42:00] problem that we're facing >> with respect to inflation for the next few months where the Fed hikes, the Fed doesn't hike. this point in time. >> Well, you kind of get into an

[7:42:12] interesting into an interesting headsp space. I mean, you're absolutely right. headsp space where if you're Kevin Worsh, you go, "How do I navigate markets that want inflation compensation and a president that wants

[7:42:28] lower rates?" I announce a bunch of task forces that expire at the end of the year and then I don't do anything and wait for the economy to do its own thing. Well, IA, if we're looking at these crack spreads widening out and

[7:42:41] staying out, there are three names that you could probably use to look into this basket. uh VLOO, Valero for example, which you know, go over to like a Chevron here. Definitely a different looking chart than a Chevron or an Exxon

[7:42:53] which >> marching higher. Uh you could go to MPC to Marathon Petroleum. That looks a lot like the last chart here.

[7:43:05] A lot like the last chart here because it's a 321 cracks play. You could also it's a 321 cracks play. You could also go to PSX um Philip 66, which you don't need to hear me say it again. It looks like the last chart here. The point is

[7:43:17] if if this is the story right now, >> right? The play isn't necessarily to be long oil >> uh per se. It's that because of the right now and what we've had to do in order to bridge the the the gap for the

[7:43:33] global economy. And if we see demand commercial airline flights are at their commercial airline flights are at their highs ever last Thursday, the demand for the distillates for the refined products is clearly

[7:43:46] clearly going to stay intact right now in the short term. And maybe >> so there's not much jet fuel. I mean in in >> that's really all it comes down to right now. So I mean tomorrow

[7:43:59] >> people want the jet fuel, not that much jet fuel. I mean, I'm going to be getting on a plane tomorrow. >> VLOO has earnings this week for what >> Uh the earnings here, when we just take a quick look, July 30th, so they're

[7:44:13] coming up on Thursday, but for the end of this week, just on the outside of the expected move, you know, we could go $5 wide around there. Uh, it's not as appealing as I hoped it would be, but maybe this is just a simp maybe this

[7:44:29] is just a short put because I wouldn't mind getting assigned shares in Valero down at like for 10 bucks 27 >> It wouldn't be the worst. That's kind of but this is this is one of the things

[7:44:45] that has flashed across. So jet demand for airline for commercial air flights >> Yeah. >> Oil supply is disrupted. The 321 crack spread is blowing out. Shortterm uh maybe the consumer is a

[7:45:00] economy is a little bit more resilient. But my goodness, does that mean there may still be opportunity ahead for some of these refiners? I mean, yeah, there's there's a lot here because you could mark things up if you're one of these

[7:45:13] refiners fairly substantially um in this kind of an environment. >> So easily understandable, too. >> Yeah. Well, I mean, hey, this is like this is like selling snow cones on a hot day.

[7:45:30] >> Mhm. Mhm. So, yeah, you could do it through the equity. The equity is going right, Ilia? you have operating costs, maintenance, blah blah blah blah blah. So, sure, you could just do long RB, short oil, long HO, short oil, but this

[7:45:42] think we should be paying attention to as we consider the fact that yes, oil's as we consider the fact that yes, oil's down 6, 7, 8%, excuse me, today, 8.5%, we'll call it, Fed hike gods did not retreat. No. No. And as as we've been

[7:45:59] saying, I am increasingly of the mind that it could be that this runup in rate that it could be that this runup in rate hike odds is a signal onto itself and that signal is telling you that actually it isn't oil that we need to be

[7:46:15] actually it isn't oil that we need to be worried about because if it was maybe we wouldn't have the run up in rate hike because what in the world is the Fed What? They're going to hike rates and all of a sudden Tyrron and Washington

[7:46:28] are going to go, "Well, listen, Kevin W increased rates by 25 basis points. We increased rates by 25 basis points. We got to wrap this thing up." Really? No. What would you have to do to beaten inflation that way? Well, you'd have to

[7:46:44] hike rates to a point where you'd crush the economy and destroy oil demand, the economy and destroy oil demand, crash the price, and yeah, okay, you you'll beat inflation. That's a that's that's a a a bit like uh

[7:47:01] you know, your your your head itches, so you cut it off. that there's there's not exactly uh there's not exactly a a a workable there's not exactly a a a workable process there. So, okay,

[7:47:17] to be rate hikes? Either it thinks the oil inflation is going to get packed into core or something else is driving up core. Neither one of these things is

[7:47:29] a good idea to like carry around in your head as an investor. And when you see that the market has already done the tightening, again, looking at real tightening, again, looking at real rates, highest since the bond panic of

[7:47:43] last year, >> h fun. >> Yeah. So, if you if if if you look at that and you go, why is the market running up real rates like this? Because break even rates are not going up.

[7:47:57] They were with oil. This most recent runup in oil, break even rates couldn't care less. They're lower now than they were at the start of the year. Why? Because the bond market doesn't see in inflation from the oil spike.

[7:48:14] It sees inflation from AI. And it's already done the tightening. And since it's already done the tightening, we might very well be to the other side of it where the tightening has an effect, hence the falling GDP.

[7:48:30] >> It's possible. Paley, I got hit with a question here. Uh, >> What does the market do after these kind of gaps? It's a good tweet. I actually got a somewhat serendipitously. Uh, Alphhatica just put out their

[7:48:45] report, a statistical study. I just got a copy of this. What happens when the market does what it does today? So, it did a full gap and fade round trip. The low reversal was 1.3%. Uh, not usual, fairly uncommon, in fact.

[7:49:00] Uh, not usual, fairly uncommon, in fact. So of the 25 years of look back so 5,755 So of the 25 years of look back so 5,755 S&P 500 sessions uh the criteria was an opening gap of 606

[7:49:14] 606 to 1.05% peak gap of 7 to 1.2 close within 0.2% of prior close high to low reversal minus 1% to minus 1.7. So just kind of like giving a range for similar occurrences. Uh 14 times has this

[7:49:28] happened before. The forward returns next day down 0.3% next day down 0.3% uh lower 71.4% of the time. A week out uh lower 71.4% of the time. A week out 1.16% higher 71.4% of the time. 10 days

[7:49:42] out 1.71% higher 78% of the time. 3 weeks out 2.7% higher 71% of the time. Uh closest analoges are June 11th 2019 and August 28th 2009. So the base rate

[7:49:55] note is short-term weakness the following session then modest recovery over the next 1 to 3 weeks. The tendency has been fairly consistent. I don't know if I trust this study here. Not that I I like Alphhatica and what they do here.

[7:50:07] And when you look back through 5,000 >> 755 sessions, I think that's is that greater than 30 >> full samples sample size. It's nothing to sneeze at. >> None of these were in front of uh

[7:50:21] hyperscala earnings. Well, there's that. >> or a Fed meeting >> or both at the same time >> or or in the middle of a war >> or in the middle of a war. So, yeah. No,

[7:50:34] >> certainly none of these were all of those things at the same time. >> No. And so, these are interesting stats and that does give, you know, the the the the statistician who likes to curfeit inside of me is like, uh, good,

[7:50:48] curfeit inside of me is like, uh, good, we're safe. But reality is that I'm not I'm not leaning against uh what did what did the Knicks uh what did what did Knicks forward Josh Hart say? Analytics uh are like a lamp post when you're

[7:51:01] all you want, but they're not taking you home. That's a good one. Now, that's a good one. I'm going to have to put that in the filing cabinet and use later. Um,

[7:51:14] one of the sort of striking things here, of course, and and you know this as a fan of seasonality. Seasonality is important. It also only takes you so far. You can't place a trade on the basis of just

[7:51:31] >> Did it work this month? >> Negative. >> How How about July up 11 for the past 11? Best month of the year for stock 11? Best month of the year for stock since 1928. How could you be bearish?

[7:51:47] >> Gonna set down my set down my Celsius so that I can uh >> Yeah. Yeah. >> This is this is I'm saying this is the kind of thing that I'm talking about when we talk about seasonality and I say

[7:52:02] you're right and kind of stuff. And when the price action doesn't confirm, you got to believe the the price action. The same way that you

[7:52:15] the price action. The same way that you might have I certainly might have all kinds of woolly macro theories about all kinds of things. "Listen here, dummy. You're on the wrong side of this thing for today. You might

[7:52:30] be right next to you." You got to listen. Okay. So, what's the plan for tomorrow? Uh, if you were there on, uh, last call,

[7:52:45] trades. Some of them went through, some did not. Uh, Coca-Cola, for example, they have earnings tomorrow morning. Ilia, I'm sitting short the 25 days to expiration. That's not the right strike. This is the right strike. 8078. This was

[7:52:58] not an earnings play. It was the market had pulled back into the uh, one week, average envelope here recently. It's a bottom left to top right chart. So when do I do? I'm a momentum person. I look to buy the dip. So I got the dip a few

[7:53:13] days ago. I tried to get on a short iron counter position before the close, maybe to expiration because if you were just pinching uh the expected move and the one standard deviation move, you were looking at 29 cents or so of credit. I

[7:53:26] think it was 30 cents of credit on a $1 wide strike, which in consideration here, Ilia, right? What are we thinking about? That's pretty close to 33%. Okay, look at. We were looking at Boeing, for

[7:53:38] filled, unfortunately, but right at the expected move, $25 wide. These are all in the morning, so you will wake up and see them. Uh, this was 91 cents of credit on $25 wide strike. That's great. North of 87. Kind of where you want to

[7:53:53] unfortunately. We should probably try to put those on a little bit earlier. Uh, what else were we talking about here? Where did my NASDAQ earnings page go? There you are. Um, SPGI is not interesting, but Corning,

[7:54:09] SPGI is not interesting, but Corning, this did get filled. Ilia Corning 127122 short put spread 1601 165 short iron short call spread. That makes your short iron condor on $5 wide strike. It was close to the credit that we were looking

[7:54:22] to receive around a third of the width. Risking two to make one basically on the nose at a 60 odd% probability of profit. Was happy to take that. We were looking Was happy to take that. We were looking at GSK as well, which the strikes 4 days

[7:54:36] fantastic. Uh out here, you're going a dollar wide on one end, a dollar on the other. 35 cents. You know what? Actually, it's pretty good. It's aftermarket. But these are all in the morning. So, if the ship

[7:54:49] sailed, the ship sailed. Uh but there were some decent plays in here. And I conceptualizing the market this week. There's two buckets. There's >> AI and then there's everything else. And in the everything else bucket, I am more

[7:55:05] play for the expected move. In a name like a Coca-Cola or like a Proctor and Gamble, for example, this thing's been doing diddly for months right now. And up a little bit. But it's not a ton of raw volatility, but if something's

[7:55:22] unlikely to move, I would say it's going to be this one more so than an Amazon or a Meta. Like we saw Tesla last week. If you played for the expected move like I did, you got your teeth kicked in because it fell 14% on like a 5.6%

[7:55:35] expected move. So yeah, >> I'm I'm more than comfortable playing the earnings that way this week. Just within the expected move, V crush for the nonI stuff. the AI stuff. We'll take it day by day and see where we're at,

[7:55:48] how we're feeling. >> I think that makes sense. Um, I'm kind of looking at it, of course, from a I mean, this is going to shock you, I'm sure, from a macro lens. And so, I'm less interested in individual names. I'm

[7:56:04] more so interested in this interplay that we're getting between bonds and gold and the dollar and the stock market and thinking, okay,

[7:56:16] where are we going to land on a narrative here? narrative here? And my sense is there's a couple things out of whack if we're going to land on some sort of

[7:56:29] if we're going to land on some sort of narrative that is going to see the rate hikes that we have on the board get baked out of the cake or at least reduced based on what the Fed does. And if that

[7:56:43] happens at the same time that the hyperscalers do like Google release big numbers and fall, that's going to make an interesting sort of backdrop. And I think probably the biggest thing that's mispriced there is

[7:56:57] the dollar. >> And I know you're long, but I know you're also going to flip this thing the moment it does something untored. I don't know if I'm I'm so worried about the dollar even with the Fed doing this.

[7:57:13] >> Yes. >> Uh Glenn gave us a nice little report about this as a new new carry trade. Nice little we've opened below Friday's clo close >> uh Friday's low and then we close above

[7:57:27] looks like it's bottoming. Switzerland really interesting. Unlike Japan, they have low rates. They're telling the world if the currency gets too strong, we're going to intervene.

[7:57:40] So if there is a currency where I feel comfortable about buying a dip right now, dollar Swiss pulls off on on Wednesday. >> Come to Papa. Happy happy to take happy to take you

[7:57:55] >> Could be. >> So I don't have my long exposure here. It's the British pound. Uh British pound here. Ilia, one of the trades that I set off today. That's a nice little engulfing candle. Move below the Friday

[7:58:09] low after moving above the Friday high. So, short the 39 days to expiration 1341 135 here. Uh we'll just see how it rides. But hey, you know what? You have this is a really big important macro week. Uh so macro money is coming up.

[7:58:24] >> I'm going to be gone uh after today until August 11th because I'm going on all the stuff that's going to happen for the rest of this week and maybe next week all in one shot. >> H interesting. Fed week, earnings week.

[7:58:41] here. I'm going to blame you and you won't be able to defend yourself. So, >> Yes, please. Uh I'll be I'll be on Twitter gloating. tomorrow, same time, same place, 4 Eastern, 3 central. Rest of the week,

[7:58:54] rotating cast of characters. So, be sure to tune in for Spac. having Chris Veio. Good luck trading. Stick around. Macro Money up next after a brief break. You're watching Tasty Live. See you there, everybody.

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[8:05:16] interesting thing considering crude oil is down sharply and apparently we're not going to bomb Iran into civilizational destruction. So, what is it that the markets don't like? And what is the price action setting up then to tell us

[8:05:32] before an actionpacked week of event risk? That's what we're going to try to figure out here on Macro Money. I'm Millius Spac, head of global macro here at Tasty Live. And as ever, we're going to start with the price

[8:05:46] we're going to start with the price action to tell us what we think might be going on here. But the question because this is a packed week must begin with what is it that the markets fear more? Is it the Fed or is it these hyperscaler

[8:06:03] earnings that are in front of us? So let's see if we can't figure that out because clearly the markets are afraid of something. Looking at the S&P 500

[8:06:15] of something. Looking at the S&P 500 here, we have a leaking lower. Um, we can take a look at the uh technical structure here and we can see we tried our best but we got nevertheless through the range that we've been holding in for

[8:06:31] the better part of a month and on the way back today even with the good news. way back today even with the good news. Notice we had an upside gap here today. Um because of course crude oil cratered over the weekend, but we cannot undo

[8:06:47] over the weekend, but we cannot undo last week's damage. We continue to get pushed down and on a re a retest of the underside of this uh range that we were underside of this uh range that we were holding in. We fail ultimately. Uh note

[8:07:02] also uh it is uh an even more dramatic story in the NASDAQ where we're trying it seems not only to break through the more recent range, we're trying to break through the swing lows on the last major

[8:07:19] through the swing lows on the last major downswing off the June high. So we're attempting to break this right here. And again, we got an upside gap last Friday. Looking at some shorter term charts, let's say a 4hour chart, we made the

[8:07:35] let's say a 4hour chart, we made the break. And so, if we look at then how break. And so, if we look at then how all of this comes together, the view from stock markets is hardly encouraging. I mean, at this point,

[8:07:48] encouraging. I mean, at this point, we've on the NASDAQ at least come back we've on the NASDAQ at least come back basically to where we were in the first half of June. If we look at the S&P,

[8:08:02] we've come back to about the same area. So, it doesn't to about the same area. So, it doesn't look big. And certainly uh in the case of uh the NASDAQ, it looks a little bit bigger uh than it does elsewhere. But

[8:08:19] the market being this heavy of course raises a question necessarily why suddenly what changed? What was the news? What was the catalyst? What was the change of

[8:08:37] weather that's got the markets in this space? And perhaps the most interesting part of it is the news hasn't been bad as it were for the main narrative in play, the AI narrative. Much of this damage, the the

[8:08:53] break here, especially through these key levels happens against the backdrop of Alphabet's earnings last week, which were by no means bad. As such, headline

[8:09:07] were by no means bad. As such, headline EPS beat by more than 200% relative to forecasts. 9 odd dollars versus uh about $2.90 expected. They even went out and and and said

[8:09:21] we're going to do even more capital expenditure to build AI capacity, which April May would have been news the markets would have loved and held close.

[8:09:34] rally. And yet, not so much anymore. In fact, the market actually punishes Alphabet uh the day after the report. They reported after the bell, the stock fell immediately in

[8:09:48] after hours um action. And then the next day really got taken to the woodshed. And the interesting thing about it is the news wasn't the kind of thing that you would think would be a bad thing.

[8:10:04] And yet there was the response. And so we look at this situation then and say, okay, well, what does all this mean? Why?

[8:10:18] Especially on a day like like today where you get some ostensibly good news. where you get some ostensibly good news. If the war trade were still alive as we sort of have come to know it,

[8:10:32] this kind of aggressive decline in crude oil might have been a much better story for stock markets than this ended up being. Why then don't we get a more positive response? Well, perhaps because the war

[8:10:47] trade as we know it is not the bogey that we thought it was anymore. Perhaps there's something else that's going on here. And of course, we've been teasing out what that might be for a couple of weeks here. Looking at the

[8:11:03] bonds, we get a little bit of a pop in the bonds today. They don't quite make it back over, but they are trying to show some kind of signs of life here

[8:11:15] today. But maybe the more interesting thing is gold. And this maybe has been the tell of tells because since the beginning of July, gold has pointedly stopped falling.

[8:11:29] Now you can see here the response that gold has had since the beginning of the year. It's been an utter selloff. It's been an utter selloff. Here's the start of the Iran war here.

[8:11:44] off in this environment. And everybody of course starts running around going, "Well, how come gold sells off? It's a safe haven." Well, it's not a safe haven. It's just another asset.

[8:11:56] Whether something is or isn't a safe haven depends on circumstances because it depends what you're looking for a haven for and what you're fleeing for a haven for and what you're fleeing from. And when the risk is a spike in

[8:12:10] oil gives you an inflation story, yields go up and the dollar goes up. An anti- fiat instrument that yields

[8:12:22] nothing isn't very much of a haven from anything at all. Just think back to when interest rates went up in 2022 and gold fell with stocks. Why some safe haven fell with stocks. Why some safe haven that was? So gold starts coming down

[8:12:39] because interest rates go up because the dollar goes up as a consequence of this war. Now that makes this price action here particularly interesting because here we

[8:12:52] are. It's the beginning of July. Gold is idle. What's happening at the same time? idle. What's happening at the same time? Well, here's the beginning of July. Crude oil surges. You'd think

[8:13:06] that's the war trade back. That should be higher rates. That should be gold cracking sharply lower. That's not what happens.

[8:13:18] It doesn't go anywhere. It's a similar story in the in uh the US dollar. story in the in uh the US dollar. Sure, it pops a little, but it's still it's been occupying basically since the earlier part of June.

[8:13:38] the war trade initially and then subsequently. So, it's not like the dollar is shy about rallying in this environment. But

[8:13:52] it can't be bothered, not unlike gold, to have anything close not unlike gold, to have anything close to what's going on here. Why? That is the interesting question of course that we've been wrestling with

[8:14:07] for a while and the answer seems to be in a sense hiding in plain sight. And perhaps this week we're going to find out just how much potency there is in that answer. So

[8:14:24] why this week? The economic data is heavy duty. And so The economic data is heavy duty. And so we start here with a relatively slow open to the week. We get a little bit of a soggy durable goods orders report, but

[8:14:40] it doesn't really um move the needle considering what else we have coming up. inflation numbers later. That that should be interesting to look at um in the in in the grand scheme of things. But the big story here is not that

[8:14:59] But the big story here is not that the big story here comes uh by way of a the big story here comes uh by way of a whole other catalyst. And easily uh sort of the most interesting item on the board from that perspective

[8:15:17] is of course the monetary policy announcement from the Fed. And in that we are going to get apparently something of substance because Kevin Walsh spent

[8:15:32] of substance because Kevin Walsh spent all that time in the last press all that time in the last press conference telling us that we are not going to have a press conference unless there is something to say. And then last

[8:15:45] week pointedly the Fed issued a press release that says hear ye there will be a press conference after this Fed meeting. So, must be something to to say. Uh, and if we look at where the markets are positioning for this,

[8:16:01] it's a pretty solid chance that we get a rate hike at this meeting. It's not the rate hike at this meeting. It's not the majority opinion. 62 uh% probability that we're going to get no change. 37

[8:16:14] almost 38% that we're going to get a hike. And that's of course very interesting indeed because it means that whoever is wrong is going to be wrong by

[8:16:26] a meaningful margin and there's going to be things to do in the market to adjust. These people that think there is a 40% chance that the Fed is going to hike,

[8:16:41] they imply positioning that were the Fed not to hike, it's going to have to move around and change. have to move around and change. And so we're looking at the possibility

[8:16:55] for meaningful response from the price action to whatever happens. Now, of course, on top of all this, we are also going to get uh

[8:17:07] some big earnings announcements from four, let's say, three hyperscalers, four mag 7 companies, Microsoft, Meta, uh Apple,

[8:17:19] 7 companies, Microsoft, Meta, uh Apple, Amazon, all reporting uh this week. And of course, if the the playbook for this is anything like what happened with Alphabet, that would be an ominous sign because

[8:17:32] then we'd get all the stratospheric numbers that we might be used to and then the market would look at those and go, "Yeah, we don't like these anymore." go, "Yeah, we don't like these anymore." And that perhaps is the glue that binds

[8:17:47] And that perhaps is the glue that binds this inflation and AI stories together. The market has been focused on inflation and rate hikes as a function of the rise and rate hikes as a function of the rise in oil, the Iran war, the knock on from

[8:18:02] But what in the world is the Fed supposed to do with a rate hike, unless it hikes rates so dramatically as to crush the economy and destroy energy demand about an energy shock?

[8:18:17] What are they going to do with a 25 basis point rate hike to fix that issue? Probably not a whole lot. So why would the Fed hike rates on that basis? Maybe they don't.

[8:18:32] And if we look at then the entire layout here, okay, maybe they don't this time, but by September, it's 91% chance that we're going to get a rate hike. By December, 75% chance we're going to get a second one. If we look at the

[8:18:48] layout for the year, we've got 40 basis points on the menu before year end. That's very much leaning in the direction of two hikes.

[8:19:02] leaning in the direction of two hikes. More uh better better than even chances. Now, the pressure from the oil story does make sense. The straight of Hormuz is effectively closed. No ships are going uh through.

[8:19:17] Shipping costs are back higher and frankly at this point are higher than they were during the initial war trade scare. So if anything, this situation has gotten worse. But if we look at what that mean what

[8:19:34] that means for inflation expectations we find they're not rising rising before. They were when we started the year crude oil started creeping higher. Break even inflation expectations baked into the

[8:19:49] bond market started rising right alongside. Well no longer. Now, they're pinned basically at levels at or even slightly below the year uh the year-to- date lows. Meanwhile, crude

[8:20:05] oil is of course still net up from the July spike, even though of course it's erased a good bit of it today, maybe something on the order of 40%ish, 30. So, what is it that's going on here?

[8:20:20] So, what is it that's going on here? Well, it seems like the AI and the sort of vigor of its buildout is an inflation story onto itself.

[8:20:32] Let's consider here. Here's the S&P 500. Here's the start of the Iran war. The war trade takes stock markets down. Here we are late March, early April. We get the first ceasefire. Markets go,

[8:20:47] "Hey, this is good news. and they rally. markets. markets. Here is where it is in the bonds right

[8:21:00] here. Here is where it is in gold right here. So the market is paying attention. It

[8:21:12] hears the ceasefire. But then something interesting happens right here once we fully erase the war trade and come back right around here.

[8:21:24] There's divergence and it happens right as the hypers scalers come out in the last reporting season and tell us we're going to spend season and tell us we're going to spend a mountain of money to build more AI

[8:21:36] a mountain of money to build more AI 750 odd billion dollars this year. Now, of course, stocks hear this and go, "Hey, that's good news and we get that chip stock meltup here, which has been

[8:21:51] idling since May." But that's a pretty big divergence versus what we see in stocks and then what we subsequently see in the bonds then keep going down. That is to say, rates keep going up.

[8:22:07] Same thing happens in gold. It's a shallow bounce. Gold keeps going down. Function of rates going up. The dollar has a shallow pullback. Keeps going up. Rates keep going up. Okay. So, why does the market think

[8:22:23] rates are going up? Is it because it is trading the war? Meanwhile, stocks are trading the war? Meanwhile, stocks are off on their adventure in chip stocks. Maybe. That's certainly been the dominant narrative.

[8:22:38] dominant narrative. Or maybe actually the narrative changed and the new narrative actually had them diverge

[8:22:51] would there be a different market environment right around here? Well, consider what real interest rates have done since then. This is a weekly chart. Now, here is the start of the Iran war.

[8:23:07] here is the start of the Iran war. As we can see, rates initially go higher. This is real interest rates. This is the tip or tip uh tips ETF. It's This is the tip or tip uh tips ETF. It's a basket of inflation protected treasury

[8:23:21] a basket of inflation protected treasury securities um as an ETF. And what this is telling us is essentially where interest rates net of inflation are going. In fact, that's how you arrive at those

[8:23:36] break even um rates is you take the difference between nominal and real interest rates and you say ah well here's the inflation adjustment to get from the one to the other. So what is it that we are actually

[8:23:52] looking at here? Well, if you consider what this is saying, it seems to be suggesting that right as the hypers scalers announced

[8:24:04] right as the hypers scalers announced all of those big numbers, real interest rates start shooting higher and they are now at the highest level since all the way back uh to the bond market panic when the Trump

[8:24:19] administration rolled out their tariffs in April of last year, quote unquote in April of last year, quote unquote liberation hyperscalers tell you that they're going to drop $750 billion on an economy which

[8:24:34] has this business investment sector so white hot that it's growing at over 10% annualized in the first quarter. What's the market going to say? All this money inflationary in the extreme. We want inflation compensation for all of this.

[8:24:52] inflation compensation for all of this. And so real rates surge. Now, if real rates surge, what would you expect? Well, the stock market's just like the spending. But then bonds are going to go down because rates are going

[8:25:04] to go up, nominal rates. The gold is going to go down, the dollar is going to go up. All of those things that look like the war trade because it

[8:25:16] is an inflation response, but it's not necessarily a response to oil. It's a the Fed might actually do something about. Because while the Fed can't necessarily stop a geopolitical crisis with a 25 basis point rate hike, they

[8:25:30] sure can put the brakes on an investment boom with a tightening cycle. And what seems to be going on here is the market is doing that tightening for the central is doing that tightening for the central bank. Now a rise in the real cost of

[8:25:44] money net of inflation first or second page of any macroeconomics textbook that's kryptonite for growth because it makes everything all economic activity more expensive.

[8:25:58] Well, what have you had since then? We've seen that the Atlanta Fed GDP now this model that approximates where GDP is going to be on the basis of incoming

[8:26:12] economic data has been sinking like a rock. In fact, it fell more today after rock. In fact, it fell more today after those soft durable goods number. 1.6% is what we're expecting now for the second quarter, down from 2.1% because

[8:26:25] these higher rates are already squeezing the economy. And perhaps that's why the economy. And perhaps that's why inflation expectations won't budge because the market is already moving on. That's perhaps why gold won't budge

[8:26:42] and looking very much like those inflation expectations because the markets are saying we already had the inflation scare. It was the AI inflation scare. Real rates have already done the

[8:26:57] tightening to address it. They've already squeezed the economy. The next thing the Fed might have to do is actually cut because the economy is already weakening under the surface, having essentially overheated at low

[8:27:11] growth because the AI boob was burning so hot that it generated all of this inflation that beckoned all these higher real that beckoned all these higher real rates. as a response.

[8:27:25] So let's say we get these hyperscalers much more capex." What's the market going to read that as? Oh, goody. More going to read that as? Oh, goody. More inflationary.

[8:27:42] thanks to Alphabet. Another big runup in real rates. dithers. Well, that just it reinforces the

[8:27:54] Well, that just it reinforces the situation further. So, positioning wise, I'm still long gold. I'm short the dollar. Uh I'm a little bit long Bitcoin dollar. Uh I'm a little bit long Bitcoin still via this call uh vertical on IBIT.

[8:28:09] I am at this point selling a whole lot of call verticals in uh NASDAQ as it of call verticals in uh NASDAQ as it leaks lower uh and a bunch more in um S&P as that comes down. And I'm a little bit long silver. All of it on the idea

[8:28:25] that what we're looking at is a transition where rate hikes start to fall out of the forecast because GDP numbers say that growth is slowing because the inflation risk is already being addressed by the market's own

[8:28:40] dynamics and the Fed can afford to dither and say, you know what, we don't need to do anything. Not yet. And then maybe by the time we get to next year, the conversation actually becomes uh one about rate cuts.

[8:28:54] And that should be alto together positive for bonds, positive for gold, positive for silver, negative for the dollar, and definitely negative for stocks. And that is macro money for today. Uh

[8:29:09] we're going to be offline here until August the 11th. I'm going to take a little bit of a break. I'll be back next month. In the meantime, enjoy all of the Tasty Live programming in front of you and Macro Money will return next month.

[8:29:25] and Macro Money will return next month. In the meantime, happy trading