Live Trading: Nasdaq Up, Chips Rip, MSFT Down — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:02] Well, now all of a sudden the strike gets hit. Once the strike gets hit, now is gone. Now that out of the moneyiness, that buffer that you had has now been evaporated, which that means that now

[00:16] strategy is getting close to being in where, you know, we've chewed through our buffer. We don't have any wiggle room left and the strike might be in the money, which isn't necessarily a death

[00:28] this is going to be a losing trade, but it does begin to change the risk parameters of the position rather significantly. Case in point, your directional bias is now going to start to grow, right? Because at the money

[00:41] options have a delta of 50. And so when the deltas or when the strikes are out of the money, their deltas are below 50. They're 30, they're 25, they're 35, whatever. And so it's not going to feel like that big of a position as it moves

[00:53] around. But once it goes in the money and it spills over that at the money strike, now the deltas go to 55 to 65 to 75. So now the direction moves are going to be a lot more significant. And so that's why if we take a strategy like a

[01:07] short strangle, when one side gets hit, the first thing we like to do is actually roll that untested side, roll the other side in a little bit to help to protect the side that is being tested, protect the side that is being

[01:20] short strangle on and the market goes down and my short put is my tested strike, I'm going to be looking to roll my call down and maybe trim my directional bias by about 30 to 50%. Because what that does is it protects

[01:34] that tested side. If the market keeps going lower and if the market keeps and goes deeper and deeper in the money on the put side, I have more protection because I brought in more premium by rolling that call down. Similarly, let's

[01:49] runs up. So now my short calls the tested strike. Now I'm going to be looking to roll my put up. So same basic idea. I'm just on the other side of the ledger, if you will. So now I'm rolling the put up to protect that call strike.

[02:02] I want to protect against the runaway move higher. I want to protect against, that short call strike and it going deeper and deeper in the money on the call side. And so maybe I roll the put up and trim my directional bias by 30 to

[02:15] 50%. What I'm doing is I'm bringing in more credit. I'm controlling my directional bias on that tested side and I'm actually improving my break even point on the tested side. And then even with a strategy as simple as something

[02:27] leg. So I'm not going to be rolling the untested side because there is no untested side. There's only one single side. And if that side gets tested, it is both the tested side and the untested side at the same time. And so what I

[02:39] might do is if that strike is tested, maybe now I just roll out in time. Maybe now I use my rolling mechanics, my rolling tactic to just add duration to Greeks. That's going to improve my break even point and it's just going to give

[02:53] me more time and extended duration in the trade. And so when it comes to a short put where the strike is tested, rolling out is typically going to be the short call and trim the directional bias, but that's kind of a separate

[03:05] project for maybe another time because that's a little bit more involved. And so that sounds like it could be theoretically hypothetically a future calculated risk. So you've got to stay tuned for that guy. But also when it

[03:18] comes to a short strangle or a short put or really un any undefined risk strategy are going to be looking to roll out in time. And the reason for this is pretty last couple of weeks before expiration, so anywhere between 14 and 21 is

[03:33] probably a fine time to roll. The gamma on the position is naturally going to be increasing. the gamma on the position is naturally going to be on the rise. Now, black strolls model. It's showing you how delta changes when the stock price

[03:46] changes. So, it's kind of an added layer of directional risk and directional bias. And so, by controlling that, by adjusting and rolling our positions expiration, we're kind of naturally putting a lid on just how much damage

[04:01] gamma can do to us. And so, this is a no-brainer. If you're at 14 to 21 days be on the position, just roll it out. Don't think about it. Just go to the your premium, improve your break even point, and slow down those Greeks,

[04:15] want to remember when it comes to rolling, 99 times out of 100, 98 times out of 100, we want to be rolling for a credit because when we roll for a net

[04:27] credit, we improve our basis. We widen our break even points. Now, this doesn't mean that you can't ever roll for a debit, but you just have to understand have to understand that when you do roll for a debit, you are worsening your

[04:39] basis. When you do roll for a debit, you are potentially kind of uh shrinking or narrowing that break even point, which is kind of working against what you want selling active trader. So, just

[04:52] understand when you pay a debit to roll, it's not exactly in line with what we're cents, you pay 4 cents, debit to roll. That's not a big deal. I'm kind of talking about the more significant debits, but I think as a rule, rolling

[05:04] for a credit is a really, really great reference point. Now, this is really easy to do with undefined risk because when you roll out into the future, So, you're pretty much always going to be able to roll for a credit. But with

[05:16] defined risk, so vertical spreads, iron condors, you can't always roll for a credit. And the times when you do want to roll, when the trade is in the money a credit to roll. It's going to be a debit to roll. that additional time is

[05:28] going to cost you something. And so when it comes to defined risk, a lot of times you just have to control your size on entry and be ready to hold that thing to the very end if that's what it comes to. Don't expect to be able to adjust. Don't

[05:41] credit. If you get to 21 days to go and you can do it, then that's fine. But to do it. So when you trade something like a vertical, like an iron condor, something defin like a butterfly, just be ready to hold that thing all the way

[05:54] to the end and don't expect to be able to roll for credit. If you can, that's great. But I would not bank on it. So rolling is not a magic wand. It's not a going to turn every loser back into a winner and it's not going to give you a

[06:06] 100% hit rate. But it is a nice tool to have in the toolbox to allow us to lean into the probabilities to allow us to widen out our break even points to allow

[06:18] us to improve our basis and kind of slow down that gamma risk that is notoriously on the rise as we get closer to expiration. So again, it's just a tool in the toolbox. And this is why we roll and this is when we roll. I hope that

[06:31] makes sense and I'll see you guys in the next video. Live and we're coming at you with another episode of Options in Action. If

[06:45] you've missed this series, it's basically a new series where I take an old whiteboard concept or maybe a strategy that I talked about previously and bring it into an advanced light. We take a look at the platform and we talk

[06:59] through the practical application of some of these concepts. Uh we're going to go through the entire YouTube playlist uh the old whiteboard series. So we have talked about call options, put options, we've talked about premium,

[07:11] we've talked about strike prices and expirations, you name it. Uh and today we're talking about the age-old question, can you make more money trading short premium or can you make more money trading long premium? And

[07:27] what are the gimmies and gotchas as Dr. Jim says? uh what are the tradeoffs with selling premium versus buying premium? We're going to take a look today and we'll break it down on this edition of Options in Action. So, we got this S&P

[07:41] Options in Action. So, we got this S&P chart pulled up here and this is not the S&P stock or index chart. It is actually a chart of a long call out in December, a chart of a long call out in December, the 8,300 strike to be specific. You can

[07:56] see here S&P uh at the top is trading at 7,300. So, we're looking at this call option a,000 points out of the money to the upside. And this is the December cycle. So before we dive into this and before I I start spewing nonsense, uh I

[08:12] just wanted to say, you know, when you're selling premium, there's a difference between selling premium in the S&P 500 products like S&P or MEES or XSP or [snorts] SPY. Uh there's a big difference between selling premium in

[08:28] those sorts of products versus selling premium in the equity space, right? S&P 500 or other indices even products like SMH uh that have moved quite

[08:40] aggressively with the tech sector popping off and selling off uh at the same time. There's things to consider, right? Short premium in the S&P 500. I I've said this before. I think if you can trade successively short premium on

[08:54] both sides of a market in an equity, you can definitely do that in the S&P 500 simply because the S&P 500 moves less. It doesn't have the same binary events. It doesn't have the same binary nature of equities. You could have a CEO step

[09:09] down and the stock price be down 20% pre-market or after the market closes. announce something something that the market likes and that stock is up or down 20% when the options market is closed. It's not necessarily going to

[09:23] happen in the S&P 500. There's also uh market stops. Even if there is a big crash in the S&P, there's certain levels where the market stops trading. uh that doesn't necessarily help you in the case of not taking on risk when it comes to

[09:37] short premium. Uh if we're talking like short puts, for example, into a market short puts, for example, into a market move like this or even strangles. Um but what I will say is over the years I've learned that there's a time and place

[09:50] for all strategies, right? Uh I have long premium strategies where I'm buying options. It's a lower probability trade if you're holding trades to expiration, but I like to say if you're buying options, you get what you pay for. I

[10:03] don't really buy options that are near-term. I don't buy zero day-day options. I don't buy 7-day options. In my mind, you're buying a lot of implied volatility in those cases. And it becomes just that much harder to be

[10:15] profitable on those strategies because you have this super decaying uh asset that is if it moves against you directionally, it's basically going to become worthless and it becomes that much harder for it to reverse and work

[10:29] in your favor. If you're buying a LEAP option though, totally different story. Uh LEAP options cost a lot of money. you get what you pay for when it comes to long premium, but I think when you're buying premium, it doesn't necessarily

[10:42] have to be a naked option. It can be. I actually have a position on in Nike right now. Uh I bought a LEAP option out at the 60 strike all the way out almost at the 60 strike all the way out almost 600 days away, January of 2028. So, this

[10:57] was a situation where, you know, Nike drops to multi- multi multi-year lows. We're talking decade lows. Uh this Nike hasn't been 45 at least around this

[11:09] price point since uh 2015 if I'm not mistaken. So the further a price falls, especially in a product like Nike where I think we'll still see some upside I think we'll still see some upside potential there, um yes, I could sell a

[11:23] put to uh collect that premium, but at the same time, Nike's already fallen uh and it's still down at 40. If I sell a put 16 days away for 100 bucks, sure, I could sell that. It's a higher probability trade, you can see my

[11:38] probability of profit is nice and high at 66%. Uh, but I take on the undefined risk nature of Nike where maybe they announce something, the stock's not down another 10 points, and now all of a sudden I have a $900 loss on my hands

[11:51] and not much management in terms of what I can do. Uh, it also takes a decent amount of buying power, 800 bucks relative to a $40 stock. So, for me, instead of selling a put, uh, especially when a product like Nike or any other

[12:06] equity gets to multi-year lows or decade lows, I'd rather just inventory some long-term premium. And you can see here the further out in time you go because you're avoiding the implied volatility increase of something like an earnings

[12:21] earlier, you've got plenty of implied volatility here in the near-term cycles that isn't necessarily reflective of these long-term cycles, right? Look at this expected move for June 30th. You have a plus $460 implied move with a 60%

[12:37] IV almost. But you look at January of 2028 and it's only a 17 point implied move. And that's because the implied volatility is significantly lower when you get all the way out here on the curve. So will I be trading Nike? Will I

[12:52] earnings announcement in a defined risk way? Absolutely. Uh like I said, there's a time and place for everything. I think for Nike with the upcoming earnings, 22-day cycle, but I'm going to buy

[13:06] will go to something like a diagonal spread or calendar spread uh in that intelligently. I still want to reduce cost basis which has always been uh something that we've said here on Tasty Live. I want to make sure that I am

[13:21] reducing my cost basis and improving my probability of success anywhere I can. So in this case, if Nike is offering super high premium to sell something whether it be a calendar spread or diagonal spread, uh we can look at this

[13:36] here like the 45 strike in July trading for $2.50, we'll call it the 45 strike in July 2nd. Look at that. You have two weeks of a difference in time, but only prices. I'm absolutely going to be selling something against that long

[13:52] option that I buy if I'm bullish. And same thing if I'm bearish. But longer term, Nike's down to 10-year lows. So, what does that mean? It means I'm going to get really far out on the curve here and risk $500. This option hasn't really

[14:06] moved all that much, which is interesting. Nike still chopped around and this 2-year leap basically is trading for 500 bucks. My whole thesis is would I be surprised to see Nike go from 45 back up to 50 or 55 or 60? it

[14:22] my answer is no. I would not be surprised. And if I'm buying a LEAP volatility, I know yes, it's a little bit more costly, but I'm out of the IV spike in the near term. I'm inventorying long-term delta inventorying premium

[14:38] that isn't going to decay against me all that much. And if we get a move in Nike that much. And if we get a move in Nike from 45 to 50 or 55 or 60, that option from 45 to 50 or 55 or 60, that option is going to uh be worth $1,000, $1,500.

[14:50] And we can see this here. If I right click on the option in the chart, the 60 strike, if you right click on the bidder or ask, you can have this menu pop up here. View the option in the chart. And here we go. It's been trading for $500

[15:03] basically ever since I bought it. But back here, when Nike was at 55 and 60, this option was trading for $1,500. So, from a riskreward standpoint, as a product like Nike or any other equity gets to decade lows or multi-year lows,

[15:19] I'm going to be inclined to lean into the long-term positioning. I did the same thing in Microsoft, right? Microsoft went from 550 down to sub 400 levels. What did I do? I was buying into some near-term stuff. We we set up some

[15:33] short premium trades, of course, but I also did a really long-term calendar spread at the 500 strike. I bought January of 2027 and sold September of trade. I was just like, well, I don't

[15:46] term, but I do feel like over the course of the year, Microsoft's going to be higher than where it is now. And that ended up being the case. We saw a nice bid, got all the way up to uh 460, and just looking at the order chains here,

[16:01] you can see uh I've had some decent trades up until that point. And the only trade I have left is that calendar spread in Microsoft and it's up a couple hundred uh right now. Uh if we look at the 500 strike, I bought it for 500

[16:15] bucks. It's up $400 right now. So I still want to have it on. I think there's uh a bullish case for it. But to answer the question, selling premium versus long premium, uh I think when you're selling premium, you have to be

[16:29] able to withstand all variance within that product you're selling, right? Because from my perspective, the most success that I've had in products where I've sold premium, uh, it's been in products where I've traded small enough

[16:42] or the product size was small enough to where I could manipulate the strikes, manipulate my time in expiration or a combination of both. Right? That's the beauty of undefined risk. You have the flexibility to be like, you know what,

[16:55] this expiration. I'm going to buy this back and I'm going to move it out a months and move my strike and collect a credit still. So, that is how I approach undefined risk these days. It's going to be a much higher probability of success

[17:11] naturally because when you're selling premium versus buying premium, if you sell an option, you just need the stock price to stay out of the money or in this case above your 37 1/2 put. If you're buying premium, you need a

[17:24] directional move in the stock price. And that's as simple as that. So, when you think about that, if I'm selling premium and I just need my strike to be out of inclined to sell near-term premium because I know that implied volatility

[17:38] is higher. There's not enough time or there's not as much time for the product to move against me in a big way. It can still happen, of course, but that 30 to 60 day window is where the implied volatility is nice and high relative to

[17:52] a nice blend of time value as well. So, that's why we are selling premium in that that's kind of the sweet spot of implied volatility value plus time value. So selling premium in that 30 to 60-day window. Buying premium, I prefer

[18:07] to be outside of that 60-day window. Honestly, I would rather buy premium in a 90day 100 day option cycle if it if it's something I can afford. In the case of Nike, I can do that in a >> 25

[18:23] [music] [singing] chair. And I'm wondering [singing] how I get down the stairs. [music] Clowns to the left of me. Jokers to the right. Here I am stuck in [music] the

[18:38] middle with you. Yes, I'm stuck in [singing] the middle with you. And I'm wondering what it is I [music] And I'm wondering what it is I [music] should do. It's so hard to keep a smile

[18:50] should do. It's so hard to keep a smile on my face. Losing [music] joy. I'm all over the place. Clowns [music] to the left of me. Jokers to the right. Here I am stuck in the middle with you.

[19:04] Well, you started off with nothing and you found [music] that you're a certain you found [music] that you're a certain man. Tell your friends and uncle slap you [music] on the back and say please

[19:32] trying to make some sense of it all but I can see it makes no sense [music] at all. Is it cool to fall asleep on the floor? I don't think that I can take [music] anymore.

[19:50] right. [music] Here I am sitting in the middle with you.

[20:18] >> Well, you started all the love and you found that you're a surv. Well, your friends call you on the back and say peace.

[20:47] [music] I got the feeling of something right. I'm so scared in case I fall [music] off my chair and I'm wondering how I get down the stairs

[21:02] to the left of me. Joke is to the right. Here I am stuck [music] in the middle with you. Yes, I'm stuck in the middle with you. Yes, I'm stuck in the middle with you. Stuck in the middle with you. Here I am

[21:17] Stuck in the middle with you. Here I am stuck in the middle of you. [music]

[21:43] day. He came to the world in the usual way, but there were planes to catch and bills to [music] pay. He learned to walk while I was away. And he was talking for I knew it. And as he grew, [music] he'd say, "I'm going to be like you, Dad. You

[22:00] say, "I'm going to be like you, Dad. You know, I'm [music] going to be like you." And the cats in the cradle and the silver spoon. Little boy blue [music] and the man on the phone. When you're coming home, Dad, I don't know when, but

[22:15] we'll get together [music] then. You know, we'll have a good time then.

[22:31] day. He said, "Thanks for the ball, Dad. Come on, let's play. Can you teach me to throw?" I said, "Not today. I got a lot to do." He said, "That's [music] okay." And he walked away, but his smile never dim and said, "I'm [singing] going to be

[22:46] like him." Yeah, you [music] know I'm going to be like him. And the cat's in [music] the cradle and the silver spoon. The little boy blue and the man on the moon. When you're coming home, Dad, I [music] don't know

[23:01] coming home, Dad, I [music] don't know when, but we'll get together then. You know, we'll have a [music] good time then.

[23:18] the other day. So much like a man, I just had to [music] say, "Son, I'm proud of you. Can you sit for a while?" He shook his head and [music] he said with a smile, "What I'd really like, Dad, is [singing] the borrow of the car keys.

[23:32] See you later. [music] Can I have them, please?" And the cat's in the cradle and the silver spoon. Little boy [music] blue and the man on the moon. When you're coming home, son, I don't know when.

[23:45] We'll get together then. Dad, [music] you know we'll have a good time then.

[24:01] [music] Long retired. My son's moved away.

[24:23] show. It is Monday, July 6th. I'm Mike Butler. I'm here with Jamal Chandler. Hopefully, you all had a good holiday weekend. Watched some World Cup. Some of >> You watch it, right? Yeah, >> last night was crazy.

[24:36] >> That's all you can really ask for. don't know if I've told you this. I've stuff. I haven't sports bet in a while, but I'm kind of pissed off. Last night

[24:48] would have there was a lot of really good bets to be had, but uh yeah, I man. It's getting a lot more fun. Uh the stars are showing up now, that's for sure. Um and then, of course, we got USA tonight. But, uh you know, shout out to

[25:02] Mexico. It was fun watching Mexico play in Mexico. They were killing it. I thought they were going to be undefeated in Mexico, but uh looks like England and >> Yeah, I mean, he's been he's been insane. And that game was crazy.

[25:17] insanity across the board. >> Yeah, end. Just like giving it their all. That's all That's all you can ever ask >> I know, right? That's all you can ever ask for, man. Uh Fourth of July was fun.

[25:29] Just chilling with the fam. The little lazy river roll down. Uh, man, it's just relaxing, man. It was good times, man. Um, we did not buy fireworks this year, but we did see a lot of it. Of course, I heard here the fireworks basically from

[25:43] Navy Pier swept into the the Wrigley Field. Is that kind of what happened? >> It's like a huge Did you see this? It's like a huge fog that came over Wrigley because the fireworks that happened at Navy Pier and they did a ton of them.

[25:55] up being like a fog. They had to delay the game. It >> I know. We saw all these things. I was like, man, I'm glad I'm not in Chicago rain. Beautiful where I was. >> Tornado rainstorms and then it didn't

[26:10] >> We're both like pretty close to each other. >> But, uh, yeah, it's always fun heading up there watching some fireworks on uh,

[26:22] where it's legal. >> Yeah, you get your neighbors, all of a [laughter] Well, that doesn't seem to stop people was like, "The fireworks are going off until like 3:00 a.m." Like that. I was

[26:36] like, "Really?" I was like, "Wow, that's crazy. That's it's wild stuff." But it's back into these markets. I mean, to me, Mikey, this is basically I know we had, you know, trading last week, Wednesday, and and Thursday, but this is the

[26:49] mean, this is it starting Monday. I think uh it's going to be fascinating to know if you had completely stopped trading on Thursday yet. I hadn't of glancing at some things and I put on some risk. Um I sold some puts and a lot

[27:04] of those a couple of te tech names. I didn't get carried away cuz I'm like we'll see what happens. But there was yes last week was week two of selling in and tech and uh mostly semis I should say. And I was just curious to see if

[27:16] four. But [snorts] it's it's kind of a new uh it's a new quarter, right? And we'll see if it's going to be more buying of semis or if some point or another. I mean, we've seen some rotation, but I'm just curious

[27:29] to see if this is going to be u more more crazy just buying of semis and just like non-stop bids or is there going to be a leveling out at some point in time? I will say though, dude, I don't know which way you went up, but my way up to

[27:41] Wisconsin, huge data center. Huge. I mean, I thing was taken over. It was in uh Shbboan, Wisconsin, right up a little bit north of Milwaukee. Massive data center being built. So this is

[27:57] real. [laughter] Like it's not this this AI stuff, this data center, dude. That I that thing was was taken up. It is insane. I mean, it is huge. So it's a near water, which is what they usually look for. I just could not believe the

[28:11] size of this thing. I missed I did not see that. adjacent to that. But it's funny you bring that up cuz I I went up a different way. We went up through Milwaukee through the north south uh

[28:24] bypass and then somehow we ended up on Highway 10 and I've never driven on going on on Highway 10. >> There was a huge billboard that said free wine >> next exit. And I'm just in like all

[28:38] >> All caps as big as as big as can be. And I'm like, "Okay, what is this?" And then we look at the exit. We look left and it's like I kid you not this like fake town where it was like seven buildings in like a semicircle and they were all

[28:52] inside of it. It was like a very odd like eerie place. It's like they lure you there wine and then they kill you. >> Yeah. No. Yeah. driving >> and we saw this huge Jehovah Witness

[29:07] compound. It was like I'm not even kidding you. It was like three gigantic like high schoolsized buildings like in a fenced area and off the highway. It >> This is wild. >> I'm also not stopping.

[29:20] >> This is weird. Has has some uh interesting vibes, but >> yeah. Uh >> not stopping. No. Haha. Fool me once. >> Yeah. The free wine thing. I was like, "Wow, that is that's like straight out

[29:33] >> Yeah. Seriously, free wine? No way. Uh >> we got a great show for you guys today, by Mike here and we're going to discuss that. We got a signal versus noise of course with Chris coming on. Uh we got morning movers with Gus. Gus is always

[29:46] bringing the heat with different names where um not paying attention yet, but as he brings them up every single time, you know, a couple weeks ago. Wendy's up. Then we got Liz coming on with Overnight Trades. Discuss some stuff

[29:59] with her. We got a guest uh after the opening bell, Kevin Stewart. uh he's going to come on and talk about tech technical analysis and uh talk about him. We got some questions for him, man, about technical analysis. Uh we got E

[30:12] live from the SIBO. After that, we got Tim Knight coming in with his charts. Uh we also will have Julia doing uh a research piece and then we're going to be doing some trades with TP as usual. Uh coming in with his his heat he

[30:25] brings. And uh then we'll have Q live from the trade desk. And then we got Kevin Davit from the NASDAQ. We had an exciting week here. uh that I just kind of really realized last night. SK Highix is going to be IPOing their ADR shares

[30:38] on NASDAQ exchange. So, that should be something fun. Great time for them to do it. >> Yeah, absolutely. We got uh plenty of market movement implied this week as

[30:50] market movement implied this week as well. Uh S&P expected move for the rest of the week about 100 points. Uh we got some some earnings here and there, but uh it's going to be more about just the the macro movements, I think, in

[31:03] the macro movements, I think, in general. Uh new earning season will be in about a week or so, July 14th, 15th. That's kind of when the banks kick it off again and then we're right back into it. So join us every single day this

[31:17] streaming on the YouTube channel right now if you'd like to check us out there. throw in your trade ideas and questions along the right hand side chat and we'll get to them as we can throughout the morning here. Um, but yeah, E- Minis are

[31:31] up 32 right now. NASDAQ's up 350, catching a nice bid in the pre-market catching a nice bid in the pre-market session. Uh, and I think maybe this is a day where you you look at an SPX iron condor or something like that. But then

[31:44] again, it is the day after the holiday. I think people are going to be this market. >> The one thing I'm seeing a lot of news out if this was old or not, but no, it's something that just came out. Um, Micro

[31:58] something that just came out. Um, Micro Strategies, I guess, sold 3,588 bitcoins um to which was $260 million to fund dividends on our digital credit security. So, everybody's, you know, up in arms. They're selling Bitcoin again.

[32:12] >> Craziness. Well, there has been a guy that has been spouting off, [laughter] taken taken directional stances on a number of different stocks, >> uh, and he's back. So, Michael Bur says

[32:29] the AI trade has become a bubble. He argues that hyperscalers are overstating earnings. Micron remains a capital destroying cyclical stock and history suggests another major downturn is coming. But the bulls have a powerful

[32:43] counterargument. Micron just reported revenue up 346% revenue up 346% gross margins above 84% free cash flow surged and AI memory is reportedly sold out through 2028. Then there's the

[32:55] options market. Volatility is extremely expensive with over 100% IV and many options expirations and uh pretty high IV rank as well at 91 and a half right now. So has I has AI permanently changed Micron's business or

[33:09] is this just another cycle before the next crash? Let's check it out on this edition of Options Math Check. So, I think Micron uh is interesting. It's been flying around. I I don't

[33:22] Micron premarket where it was just like flat. I feel like there's always pre-market flow in this thing. Uh closed at 975. It's trading at uh,0 right now

[33:34] pre-market. And again, 100% IV all the way through November of this year. And even then, you're still looking at 97% across the board through next year. The across the board through next year. The first 80 print is December of 2027. So,

[33:50] the market is is telling us we should expect a ton of uh movement here. You've got 125 point implied move for this week. So, looking at the implied week. So, looking at the implied volatility, I mean, it's it's crazy. and

[34:04] you're going to have call skew in here uh for the foreseeable future until it stops chopping around and moving big to the upside. But what do you think? Do you think this is the next big tech stock that is a $2 trillion company or

[34:18] wayside? >> I mean, I think it's lining up that way. And again, we we we trade so many things. I don't I haven't dove into their business specifically what they do, but I think this is one of those

[34:31] trading price action and the price action suggests that this stock is um is is just breaking new ground in some way, shape or form. I mean, we've seen the moves more recently. It's been amazing to watch. Speaking of I actually put on

[34:45] a uh another call butterfly in a name like this last week. Same thing with just to see what happens. And it's because of the expected moves that I feel like I can try these things and possibly get away with making some money

[34:57] I it does seem like we talk about it as much as we did Nvidia a couple of years ago. We don't talk about Nvidia the same way. Seems like we talk about Micron of all the names. I mean even AMD's moving around a lot, but we don't talk about it

[35:10] as much. Micron's been the name. And uh when when you're the name, I think it's the one that a lot of people are trading and it has the most liquidity. And like of give you an idea of the volatility in this name. It's uh it's very high. So

[35:25] again, I just one of the things I do like about big holidays is you get to that you might not see in your everyday life. And seeing that data center was I was like, "Wow." I I I've seen pictures. I know that these exist, but

[35:41] the amount of cranes, Mike, like and the amount of just machinery, it's it was a that we're seeing day in day out in trading that explains why these names are moving the way they are. >> Yeah. I think I think the big thing from

[35:55] Micron is uh the forecast of sales. I think sold out through 2028 is kind of crazy. And I think that for me is the staying power. Like if you if it was just hype and nothing behind it, if they didn't have a

[36:10] a business model that could sustain this, then I think you would see much realized volatility. you'd see a lot more of this kind of straight up chart more of this kind of straight up chart and then crash down. Uh but I think I

[36:23] day and age. A trillion dollars is whatever apparently. >> Uh so >> it's interesting though because if you think this will be, you know, the next Microsoft or or Google type company in

[36:37] terms of market cap, you're looking at a $2,500 price point at at least right now, unless they do a stock split. So, still plenty of of room to run if you

[36:49] think that this is going to be the next big tech stock that is MAG7 worthy. Uh, but if not, you've got plenty of implied volatility as well that you can uh like that. But this is a $1,000 stock. We're kind of

[37:06] butterflies and calendar spreads. That's basically how we're trading it, unless you wanted to do like near-term uh credit spreads. But I like the butterflies and and the calendar spreads in here. I think they're a great

[37:19] riskreward, >> especially for mid to small size >> because you can get the 4-day butterflies, the 7-day butterflies, the 11-day butterflies that are still pretty cheap because implied volatility is so

[37:32] high. And if you get the timing right, they can be really nice uh reward relative to risk. >> And you can use those expected moves for mean, normally you wouldn't be able to make a bet for something to move a h

[37:45] 100red plus dollars where from it where it's from night right now. And the fact that you can and and who knows, it might even exceed that move, right? Like it's um I think it it is beneficial to be able to play them with those spreads.

[37:57] not one where you're just doing straight out. Hell, you're not even selling puts in most of these because it's really kind of it's rather expensive at times. those those spreads to be able to do it. But I mean, look, Micron's number 11 in

[38:11] the S&P 500 right now. It it's it's not that far away. And um it's it's been really fast uh the the the rise here over the last couple of years. If you now and it's not that far away from possibly jumping into the top five.

[38:27] >> Yeah, it's wild. But yeah, uh I have an iron condor on in here from earnings last time. This is an iron condor that we wrapped around a butterfly. Mh. Um, and it's working out nicely here. But this is just an example of how far away

[38:41] you can get. 800,300 are the short strikes. And then I went defined risk 20 points wide. You could do 10 points wide. You can do whatever fits your risk tolerance, but uh you're going to pick up a couple hundred for even a a 500

[38:53] point wide range here, which is pretty crazy. even were able to withstand the move this past last week, I should say. I mean, major major move down. We're still we're still outside the expected move.

[39:06] Yeah, gota love that. Yeah, but yeah, we'll see how this thing uh behaves this week. Again, up about 30 points pre-market here after closing at 975, jumping back up above a,000. Uh and just really quickly looking at some skew. If

[39:22] you look at the 11day and you go 200 points out of the money to the 800 and then up to the 1200, uh you're actually seeing a little bit uh you're actually seeing a little bit of put skew here. At least right now,

[39:34] happened late last week. I mean, these names got hit, you know, like on on where all even though a lot of them got hit, you know, there's Micron, the whole AI trade. I mean, I saw NBIS, uh, BE, all those names were getting hit, but it

[39:50] been calling for. Maybe that's what Bur is calling for, right? This the the fall in these stocks and some crash, if you will, in the market. But I I just I I haven't seen that yet. I haven't seen at

[40:03] this is a crowded trade, but when we've seen some of the exit in this crowded Walmarts and the Costos of the world, the Lilies of the world. We've seen some recently. So, I think that's a good sign as long as we're not seeing a crash when

[40:18] these names get dumped. >> Yeah, for sure. So, yeah, we'll we'll take a look when uh the market opens here, but I think the MMO here is going to be butterflies to the upside or downside. Uh, I've got this iron condor.

[40:34] iron condor. There's still $400 of exttrinsic value to decay. So, that helps me if I keep that iron condor on and I throw on like a a butterfly that's >> It'll hedge a lot of that upside risk.

[40:48] Same thing at the downside. If you wanted to play both sides here, but I think that's what I would do considering I have the existing position. But I like I like the neutral positions here in any of these expirations just because you

[41:00] whatever you want. >> Yeah. And and uh in addition to the iron condor you mentioned that we have on like I said um I put on a call butterfly times when the name has fallen. Um this

[41:14] time it's moved a little bit further but I got the 1100 uh 1200 1300 call butterfly on. If I win on that this week along with the iron condor I'm I'm happy along with the iron condor I'm I'm happy dude. I'm ecstatic. Yeah, as you should.

[41:27] And yeah, even even in this 4 day cycle, you can still see 1,100, 1,200, 1300 is trading for what 8 800 bucks for 100 point wide. It's crazy.

[41:39] >> it's craziness. Uh but yeah, that's the math check looking at Micron and uh we'll we'll definitely look at this on the open, see where it chops around and see if we can throw on some some upside butterflies

[41:52] within the iron condor strikes. But we do have a very special guest, our first guest of the week, Mr. Chris Veio on the line. Chris, how you doing this morning? How was your holiday? >> It was good. I mean, I discovered a new

[42:05] problem on my property. So, a few months ago, I took down some trees. One of these trees apparently is called a black locust tree. It's this uh woody rooting locust tree. It's this uh woody rooting plant that when it uh gets distressed,

[42:19] start to go through a process called root sprouting. And so you got all these little trees that pop up all over your yard. I've dug up about 80 feet worth of uh roots across my yard from the original stump have gone into the

[42:35] backyard, down in the front yard. It's craziness. So that was my weekend digging up uh roots from a tree. I bet you didn't have my yard looks like a get on and start talking about roots. I bet you had no idea. You There's no way

[42:47] >> I did not. >> But my yard looks like the Imaginino >> Yeah. I feel like here?" I like it. >> Sounds like it sounds like Catty Shack

[43:00] is what it [laughter] sounds like. Jam Gopher Jam GoPro. >> I'll take some pictures and show you the pile of roots [laughter] of the over the

[43:12] with the hat and everything. >> The muddy the muddy face and all. [laughter] >> So good. Well, hopefully that is resolved, but uh yeah, I feel like your I feel like your property is just filled

[43:25] with black swan events. I mean, I feel like this is the third one in the last >> We we replaced a water heater last week, which chat GPT and Claude, you know, I I go, how much is it? you know, bunch of water heater replacement. Like house is

[43:39] 30 years old. It's the original heater. And they ballpark it around $3,500. I get three different plumbers in here. They all give me three quotes within $75 of each other. Nothing cheaper than $9,100 bucks. So, it is a money pit.

[43:53] Watch the Tom Hanks movie and then rent forever. Don't buy a home. >> Yeah. Yeah. The Pit. Yeah. Really? [laughter] It's a great movie. >> You've seen Boiler Room, I assume, right? I mean, it feels like it's like,

[44:06] when you were get when you were getting these quotes from these dudes, were you talking to the newspaper guy, he was like whenever he was trying to pitch Were you doing that?" Basically, [laughter] I imagine you doing that.

[44:18] nine is upside down, right? That should be a six maybe or [laughter] >> No, nothing really worked. But, you know, uh maybe we can make some of that Jamal, I've been looking through the options tape. our team of astute

[44:34] together some interesting activity here in Microsoft in recent days. Um, we know Microsoft's had a really ugly year. ugly year. We have had the SAS apocalypse trade starting in February.

[44:47] Of course, anthropic launched clawed code and apparently these software companies are zeros at this point in time. Um, so we've seen the largest non-recessionary draw down in software in more than 30 years. In fact, in 2026,

[45:00] roughly $2 trillion of software market cap's been erased so far. And we've seen that software multiples, which in 24 and 25 were averaging around nine time sales, have come into about six. So, this has been a real rerating of the

[45:12] entire sector. But you're starting to see that the tape is beginning to turn in a name like Microsoft, which has been a victim of the SAS apocalypse here. Uh, two days running, we see bullish call buyers, 6.8 8 million in premium mostly

[45:25] expirations that carry through that July 28th earnings report. The implied volume in the stock was only about 37 or 38% around the time which is actually cheap uncertainty in the stock right now. Um the first of those trades hit last

[45:39] Wednesday October 16th the 405 calls about 5% out of the money for about 2.36 ass Mike but the open interest was basically flat. So this could be an ad. adjusting to an existing structure rather than a completely fresh bet. U

[45:54] the second trade hit on Thursday, the October 16th 470 calls about 20% out of the money for 3.03 million. Open interest there was rising by about 13%. as new positioning and that does seem to be the bigger upside bet here. Um the

[46:08] buyers looking for more than Microsoft to stabilize. Obviously they need a real price jump over the next few months but there have been some shorterdated activities as well. Here we see a July 8th 397 and a half call about 2% out of

[46:21] the money only a $500,000 trade but the open interest there jumps 57%. Um so you the short term it's a smaller trade but someone wants exposure now and they're clearly trying to look for a little bit of juice here. So u the options trade in

[46:36] prints coming across the tape. You got a near-term kicker. You have an October earnings trade and a further out upside strike of Microsoft starts reclaiming its sector premium or sector leadership premium here. But this is not happening

[46:49] last week on several days Microsoft jumps 4% while the semiconductor chips part of the tape that we should care about here. We've been spending the last few weeks talking about the put buying in Micron, SanDisk, AMD, Intel after

[47:04] And now we're seeing the call buying and the beaten down software names in cheap V. So this is how rotations usually begin, right? Selling the expensive there and then looking for the opportunities in the downtrodden and

[47:18] parts of the market. So Microsoft down 24% this year, Palanteer down around 24%, service now 31%. If you look at the analyst targets here, Microsoft is still looking to trade 44% higher by year end. So um the bullish case here guys is that

[47:32] bearish case is that AI is eating the are telling us that maybe we're not going to get a resolution to either of those questions before October. But but guys, what do you think here? The open

[47:44] interest turning as a tip of the hat to Frank here, Jamal. Uh we're keeping an that helps give a little bit more of an indication whether or not someone is rolling a position, if they're adding. Obviously, we don't know everything

[47:57] about what's going on in their books, but you do see this change in behavior now, relatively speaking, between the leadership group and the losers, and >> Yeah. I mean, I think the the the important part, like you said, is that

[48:10] seen. You took the words right out of my mouth. And again, this is about buying October, they're saying they're going to give themselves a little bit of do at times with this trade when we've

[48:22] too. Last week it was a bump in Microsoft, CRM, Palanteer, some of those sold out towards the end of the week. Um, I think for those reasons, we're not far as like people who think this is going to turn into a 2001.com

[48:38] rotation into those weaker areas at those areas. Yeah, I think it's really just the euphoria of the chip stocks uh least temporarily and that's kind of what you saw, but you're seeing the

[48:53] reverse happen like to uh to Chris's point where you're seeing a bid in Microsoft and some selling in products like Micron for example. But uh just keep your eye on this low IV like IV ranks at over 100, but that's largely

[49:06] because we have earnings priced in in this 30-day window. Um, but 30% IV, anything in the 30s is pretty low for an equity, which means these calls are relatively cheap, especially if you think it's it's going to go up 10 20% in

[49:19] >> And Mike, one one final point there. If you take a look at the SKs in names like the semis versus the software, you had a lot of put skew in some of these software names, a lot of call skew in the semis, the call skew has lessened in

[49:31] the semis, and you're starting to see call skew return to some of the software got to keep an eye on it. could be one of the clues of a summer software rally >> Come on, love it. We are We have a smattering of Microsoft positions. So

[49:46] hopefully that is the case as they're all all upside positions. But Chris, appreciate you. Glad you got uh you are uprooted now, for lack of better phrases. But hopefully you have no other binary events in your yard this summer.

[49:59] break. Join us on the YouTube channel. Let us know what you think in the Um, but yeah, you're watching Tasty Live. We'll be back in about 90 seconds.

[50:20] >> Mike, what does it mean to be assigned? When you are assigned, you are ultimately short an option that's in the money and the counterparty has the ability to exercise that option. So, if you are assigned, it means your option

[50:35] against your will ultimately has turned into 100 shares of long or short stock. >> What does a green scratch mean? >> Oo, a green scratch refers to stubbornness, getting the best of you, and when I say you, I mean me. Uh, green

[50:49] scratch refers to rolling a position, defending a position, and instead of just closing it for less than uh loss that you're seeing, or maybe a $100 loss, $50 loss, a green scratch is when you close it for maybe a 5-cent [music]

[51:02] winner, 10-cent winner, 15-cent winner. Just the ability to see that green number on your screen and get out in a profitable way as opposed to a loss.

[51:19] Taking off strategies, that's also pretty easy. But what do you do with everything in between? Well, in our options crash course strategy series, the winners. We're going to show [music] you how to handle the losers, but most

[51:32] importantly, we're going to show you how to handle everything in between with simple and clear guidelines and reference points. We'll see you guys reference points. We'll see you guys there.

[51:58] >> Heat. [music]

[52:18] the show. We've got the E- Minis up 30, NASDAQ up 370. Markets are moving pre-market. Uh, but we've got Gus in the house with myself and Jamal, and we're going to look at some of the morning movers today. Gus, how was your holiday

[52:33] steaks, watched the fireworks. That smoke blowing over the city was insane. They had to delay the Cubs game. I I was like I don't remember this being this But uh yeah, had a had a good good holiday weekend and got some uh exciting

[52:48] was I I almost thought it was going to be too many. I had to do some elimination to get down to just four to present to you guys here because over things to break. >> Yeah. Nice. Love it.

[53:01] >> Um kicking things off I suppose the uh biggest one of the day. Obviously, this is not a public company, but will be sometime. Uh, well, Terowolf is, but Terowolf to use their data center in Kentucky. It's expected to generate $19

[53:14] billion in revenue over the course of the uh 10 years that this that this deal is signed for beginning in the second half of 2027. That is a considerable amount of money for Terra Wolf, who did 19 or 160 million with an M dollars in

[53:28] revenue last year. So, a $19 billion deal, pretty good for their for their on the day on this news. It's been a trending name over the past, you know, see it pop up on on Wall Street Bets as a potential short squeeze opportunity a

[53:42] year ago. Uh and we've since moved into it being a fairly legitimate company here. Terowolf being a crypto miner that has rotated into uh AI data centers and leasing these out. So Anthropic signing with them. Uh potentially it could see

[53:55] at whatever crazy valuation they wind up going public at as well. >> About it Terra Wolf this stock. I mean, it's been it's been uh around the block it's been it's been uh around the block just a little bit. But uh look, I saw

[54:09] real believer, man. I I I told Mike that's been the story for me. I saw this huge data center being built in in Wisconsin. And yeah, I mean, these >> Yeah, I know this is a this is a Dr. Jim favorite as well. Terra Wolf comes up

[54:23] comes up a lot on his show. So, yeah, good good for him. I hope he was long, know he talks about it all the I don't I don't know what his what his trajectory rolling straight into the second one. There is uh now a third player entering

[54:38] the smart glasses market. Meta obviously the premier player. They have 70% worldwide market share. Uh, Alibaba has rolled out Quark Smart Glasses. That's have a Chinese-based company that is going to attempt to compete in the US.

[54:51] Now, >> every headline I've seen about this company this morning says even realities founded by Apple veteran Apple employees found this company. This company was founded by this guy Will Wang. He did

[55:06] two years on enterprise management at Apple from 2016 to 2018. All right, I don't think we should be calling this guy some Apple veteran. I expected to see some former seuite person that jumped over. Uh this guy is just a dude.

[55:18] He's obviously a very smart guy. This company is a unicorn now at a $1 billion valuation and Meta has actually just invested in it. So an interesting investor here. They really want a Chinese rival to to the to the US smart

[55:33] glasses. But uh just yeah don't be deceived by the Apple veteran comments was a regular Apple employee for two years 10 years ago.

[55:45] >> Yes. But company's doing good. Like I said, it's it's a unicorn. uh the about the US. 80% of their developers are located in the US. So keep an eye on even realities in in IPO talks in in the next 5 years. I suppose also could

[56:00] if you think a market disruption could drive player >> Meta and who else? >> Alibaba is the other big one. Yeah, obviously threw their hat into the ring, but I don't know how much I I buy into

[56:14] those big ridiculous things. Well, I've been seeing a lot more uh ads for these and I just got my first video message from glasses of my friend putting or camera view and he's like these are my meta Oakleys. I was like oh no

[56:30] >> Yeah, >> we are we are in the thick of it now. meta glasses. She's she's all over it. Wants them for her travels documenting I mean I would I would entertain getting a pair as well. It does it does seem

[56:44] can just walk around and talk to things. I mean, it's like it's like Jarvis. We closer to to Tony Stark's Jarvis. Just be in your life. You can just Hey, Meta. Anything that you want here [laughter] in your business, you can't do it.

[56:58] >> Um speaking of Meta, we have uh they are getting faced with another lawsuit here. It feels like once a week we talk about a meta lawsuit [clears throat] these days. Uh this one pretty heavy. I don't mean to make light of the situation.

[57:11] They were allowing ads for CSAM to be posted on WhatsApp and FA and Instagram in India. India is the largest user base for WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram. About 500 million of Instagram of Instagram's three three billion users

[57:26] are located in in India. So huge market for them. They've been cracking down in regulatory scrutiny for a little while now. This is just the latest thing. immediate fine here, but they are going to really have to tighten up and should

[57:39] Indian government is interested in in giving them a hefty fine as they should. This is bad. >> Yeah, that is uh a big down move on Friday and it's kind of chopping around the same level. It's up a little bit

[57:53] pre-market, but could certainly see that reverse as things get more crazy over >> it's a speeding ticket for Zuck. He's just going to pay it in. you you you could you could tell Meta they got to pay a $5 billion fine and

[58:07] bottom line that much? I don't know that it does. check? Which one do you >> Yeah, [laughter] exactly. Exactly. >> You send money over WhatsApp because we can cut out the transaction fees."

[58:20] >> Uh last one I have here, Lockheed Martin. Uh they are looking to spend $3.5 billion to purchase UK-based naval defense firm Ultra Maritime. They are the leading contender currently in a a few takeover bids that are happening for

[58:34] this. JP Morgan advising on the sell side. Uh and yeah, they want to uh obviously Loheed Martin among the biggest if not just the outright biggest uh military contractor that that we have publicly tradable. Uh and they want to

[58:47] make a bigger move into the naval space it seems. Obviously known for for their planes first and foremost uh but looking to get into some boats as well. So ultra maritime could be acquired here soon. $3.5 billion, you know, Loheed Martin,

[59:00] >> Interesting. You think this is one that has was a result of the recent war or like all that stuff. >> Maybe maybe wanting some Yeah. some more naval involvement for situations like that. I mean, this has obviously been a

[59:14] more naval thing than than airbased thing. Uh or just just broadly, I I can scary looking boardroom that's been saying for years, why why don't we have landing on other people's carriers. We should own the carrier. So [laughter]

[59:30] >> That's good. >> I think that's kind that's kind of where where we're at here is they just want to be a uh vertically integrated military contractor. >> Um then we have yeah some scattered

[59:43] other movers. Uh Data Dog moving this morning. DOG. I know this is a trendy ticker that pops up every now and then. Uh sinking after after some analyst Uh sinking after after some analyst downgrades. Um T-Mobile up. Bank of

[59:55] America raised their rating on T-Mobile and said that we are going to enter a phase of peak bearishness in the in the telecommunications sector. Uh but

[1:00:07] the incorrect sentiment and they they're raising their guidance against that. So >> What the hell does that mean? I >> I don't know. [laughter] I don't know. >> It does. >> Peak bearishness, but [laughter]

[1:00:22] >> Yeah. Yeah. And then if it goes down, they'll just say, "Well, we told you it's peak bearishness." >> Yeah, we said we were entering. >> Yeah. God. >> Um, so yeah, we got we got movers

[1:00:34] happening all over the place. Big stories breaking left and right. Uh, long long weekends just create so much surface area for news to stick to. >> That is true. Yeah, lots of movement. And uh it is interesting to see T-Mobile

[1:00:48] catching a bit after the big selloff uh after um what's that company that IPOed? >> Uh SpaceX is now a [laughter] >> Yeah. >> SpaceX is now a a telephone company.

[1:01:02] >> Yes. >> Uh sitting up at 164 pre-market. So >> Yeah, it's been very quiet. our man on the spot, Frank uh Frank Walsh said that Meta has only in quotes as he said 23 billion cash on hand. So

[1:01:16] >> Microsoft has 78 billion cash on him by the way. >> I don't know much, man. But I'm telling you, man, it it's it's worth sticking >> right. >> Yeah.

[1:01:30] willing I'm doing the risk to find, but I'm willing to like go to the end on this one. Like I think Microsoft is just being smacked. And I get why. I get the narrative. But >> dude, having 78 billion cash on hand.

[1:01:44] >> Yeah, I I agree. I mean, just anytime these largest companies in the world are too big to fail start sinking to one-year lows, it feels like it's it's a no-brainer to to get involved to me. And yeah, Mike has been shouting in my ear

[1:01:59] >> right. >> It's got to happen sometime. Yeah, we've got a bunch of positions on here, but yeah, I mean it's it's an interesting uh especially if you believe that maybe the chip names have gone a little too far or

[1:02:15] at least Microsoft will be around uh for quite some time with so much cash on case. Uh but we'll see. >> I mean, Meta will be I think will be it's it's a bleak time. Yeah. >> So, I I haven't put on any positions in

[1:02:29] meta. I don't know what'll be the catalyst to make me do it, but it's not >> Yeah. Well, thanks, Gus. Appreciate your time. We've got a handful of new tickers to look at this morning on the open. Uh, and we'll check it out. But yeah, we

[1:02:43] we've got about 22 minutes before the equity market opens. E- mini still up about 30. NASDAQ up 330. Uh, the Dow just ticked red, interestingly enough. the morning here. Join us on the YouTube channel. We are streaming live there,

[1:02:57] second break. You're watching Tasty Live.

[1:03:12] [music] Trading View charts with Tasty Trades low commissions. Try it out and leave us a review. [music] [music] Cool.

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[1:04:37] show. My name is Mike. I'm here with Jamal and uh we've got Liz Derking on Jamal and uh we've got Liz Derking on the line and I'm sure you're trading S&P in this pre-market session. Liz, how was your holiday weekend? Uh, can we just

[1:04:49] [laughter] >> True. >> True. How'd that happen? >> Looking good, boys. Looking good. It's week. Clean white slate, right? There you go.

[1:05:02] week. I mean, like I said, I I obviously there was trading on last week. Uh, July is the real week that July is starting. It's the beginning of the next quarter. >> I I agree with you, too. I've just been spending way too much time with Chris

[1:05:16] Beckio these days. Somebody needs to copy [laughter] off because I am I'm literally taking a page out of his book. He said July it's 11 out of 11 goes up 3% each July. >> Oh my god. [laughter]

[1:05:29] So good. >> You need your I need help. Somebody help >> Oh, he's gotten to you. >> He's totally corrupted me. [laughter] it. >> Yeah. No, he's I mean he's convinced me

[1:05:44] 11 out of 11. So it's going to be 12 out of 12. 3.3% up move in July. So, I said, "Okay, let's see what we can do." [laughter] No, I mean, I I mean, I'm leaning slightly bullish, but I've been I've been tra I do trade S&P, but I've

[1:05:57] been really focusing and I'm going to try in July if it is going to be even a keep my theta numbers up and I want to use and I love that you guys were talking about Microsoft because I want to use Microsoft near-term options and

[1:06:09] to keep my theta really high. like every two days I'm going to sell a $5 wide put lather rinse repeat because that is it's it's defined risk if Microsoft we're all it's defined risk if Microsoft we're all in in opinion that Microsoft me you Gus

[1:06:23] maybe possibly have some upside potential but it's got some really juicy premium you're looking at 107 IV rank you can go into the 2-day option sell $5 wide $10 wide whatever your risk parameter is is at the money and just

[1:06:37] keep collecting premium and riding it up or can stay right So that's what I've been I'm I'm really focusing in July on getting my theta numbers up. If it's going to be, you know, a grind the the grind up. So that's what I'm going to

[1:06:50] last week and it worked. Rolled off. They So they roll off, right? If you gone. And so then this morning is on the open. I got to go in and sell some more. >> Nice. >> Oh, cool. Microsoft. Yeah, Microsoft

[1:07:04] chopping around the similar closing price from last week, but uh yeah, we are all in unison here with a lot of upside uh bullish strategies in Microsoft. We've got what a couple diagonal spreads, a calendar spread in

[1:07:20] there. Uh but yeah, it's all just all defined risk. But between August and and out all the way out in January with the short September against it, but that was when it was down in like the 350 handle. Just getting some

[1:07:35] >> Who's that? Microsoft. >> Yeah. End of end of this month. >> Okay. So it is in it is in July. It is in July. Yeah. >> Yeah. So the next next earning cycle will kick off around July 14th 15th of

[1:07:48] the banks and then couple weeks after that you'll have all the tech stocks >> reporting. So yeah, end of July. >> Does it does it scare you at all that we should all be buying Microsoft? >> It scares me that uh we're two weeks

[1:08:02] middle of the month and that July could be over that fast. That's what really scare me that we're all on the same page for Microsoft? No. No. Not really. No, not this time around. I used to be scared by stuff like that. No. Um I I

[1:08:17] think the other reason why is because again last week what this was two weeks off. Micron you can look at all the charts right two weeks in a row all those names sell off last week at the very end of the week and you guys were

[1:08:29] doing the show uh there was selloff in and semis once again and the one thing they were buying was was Microsoft was Palanteer was CRM. I had a great day that day cuz those are names that I'm long. So, it seems like every time

[1:08:41] long. So, it seems like every time there's a sellout in these, there is a a push into this the software names. So, as long as that trend continues, I actually I'm I'm I'm not scared about it. I think that's fine.

[1:08:53] >> And tomorrow is a big day, too, cuz SpaceX is going uh into the NASDAQ tomorrow, right? It's it's there will be some forced buying tomorrow in SpaceX. >> We'll definitely see. Yeah. >> Yeah. So, and that's that's keeping its

[1:09:07] wings up, too. Where is that right now? One 165ish. >> Yeah. No, I think I just think these this these names have been really kind of sold off quite a bit. I get it. I get the reason why. Um I don't know if it's

[1:09:21] been fully I I >> I feel like if that were the case in the that viable anymore, they would completely be sold off and they wouldn't now and again. And again, it's it's the big names. Um so I am I'm long m I'm

[1:09:35] long Microsoft with a Super Bowl. I have um a similar deal in CRM and a similar deal in Palunteer and I'm short a call in snow. I want to lose so bad on that >> Oh, those are those are the greatest trades when you know you want something.

[1:09:51] >> That's how I trade. I trade like that. I trade um I love to have multiple names in a group that um and in this case, normally I wouldn't be long three, but three most viable ones. And I'm sure to call in snow. I would be selling a call

[1:10:05] crazy high to sell. It's like four grand to sell one of those. So, I'm short this call in snow and I want to lose on it so bad because I got these risk to find software names and that's the way I'm playing the space.

[1:10:19] in snow and you >> That's right. [laughter] Naked. >> That's right. Yeah. Yeah. Let's see what happens. Come on. Hurt me. Come on, snow. [laughter] Come on. >> Yeah. Tons of paint in here. Um, and

[1:10:33] together that >> and the only way I lose is if Snow gets >> all the other ones. >> If Snow gets taken out like $500,000. Oh >> If I was acquiring all the other stocks and then they'll [laughter]

[1:10:46] >> if Microsoft acquires Snow. Yeah. >> Oh, that would be that's how I be right scenario on the board where you do get taken out and that is it. That's pretty >> It's uh it's an hundred billion dollars. So, you know, I mean, you're going to

[1:11:00] have to pay $200 billion. >> Yeah. >> They're not going to do that. >> No, I mean, like, I'm not in snow right your SPX trade, Mikey. I love it. I think so. So, I I'm really I'm I'm

[1:11:12] really leaning into this. So, I my this year I've been very mechanical and up. So, that's how I'm positioning myself. I've got, you know, my IRA where I buy and hold and do a lot of zebras and diagonals in. Then in my my trading

[1:11:25] I'm near-term selling premium and everything that I can get my hands on that has decent premium. And then I'm trading my S&P mechanically. I've been very good to me. >> Love it.

[1:11:38] >> Jade lizard. >> Yeah, good old jade lizard. Um and yeah, >> Yeah, good old jade lizard. Um and yeah, we we were trading some of these like uh Super Bowls in SPX where we're selling put spread to buy call spread. Uh, I'm

[1:11:51] think that's that could be an another interesting setup where you sell a 10-point widespread and then you buy uh 10 point wide spread for a small credit. >> oh yeah, you're going to go Super Bowl in it, which is not bad, Mike. So, kind

[1:12:06] of springboarding off what I was saying about my my quality time with Veio. If if it's going to continue to go up, that Super Bowl is a great trade in SPX. Yeah, it's really nice because you have you have the ability to keep it small,

[1:12:18] but you you get the speed as if you had an undefined risk position because your short put spread finances the call spread and they they move in synergy >> Yeah, I think something like that. >> You go pretty far up with your call

[1:12:32] call spread. I notoriously when I would put them on, I would do an at the money [clears throat] around the at the moneys and sell a put to finance it. This and little bit less profit. You're not trying to get the full thousand dollar,

[1:12:45] right? Or $500 or whatever it is. >> Yep. Yeah. And the last couple of times I've done this, it's been a $200 winner just on an out of the money move closer >> Um, so yeah. >> And Mike, I I kind of like that you're

[1:12:59] been seeing, and I want to get your guys' opinion on this. You've been seeing two-way action intraday. So, you know, my old demo where I when I was spread on and leave it. I was just like just leave it because we'll number one

[1:13:13] pattern day trading rule. But now if you don't close that sometimes it's fully the day. You're seeing things that are you're going to get an up move wrapped between 9 and 10 we're getting those up moves and you're closing your Super

[1:13:27] Bowl. If you leave them then sometimes they they wind up coming into the close trade is huge. >> Yeah. Especially with these with the Super Bowls where you're selling a spread to buy one. Uh you can get really

[1:13:39] quick profits on just a 10 15 point move. Uh yeah. So >> yeah, I like it. Yeah. Right now I'm doing uh a Super Bowl in the one day and >> Uh >> what are you what are you what are you

[1:13:52] your Super Bowl though, right? I just want to be clear about that. >> Yeah. 25cent credit on the Super Bowl. >> As long as Even if it's 5 cents, even if >> Yeah. Yep. that just gives you that that neutral profitability if all of it

[1:14:05] expires worthless. Uh which I think in the in the near term is whatever, but in times like that's going to be a difference maker. Um and then the zero day standard setup five point wide iron condor chicken iron condor collecting

[1:14:20] $200 to risk 300 and I'll put a GTC order to close it for 50% profit for >> Are you working that in the pre-market? So if you if you don't get filled here, Mike, does that order go into the regular scheduled trading session?

[1:14:36] >> Uh question. >> I think it would still fill, but yeah, I I would imagine that they would take the orders from uh the pre-market and just don't know how the back end works

[1:14:50] converts. We'll find out. >> Yeah, I guess we'll find out. put an order in that's a couple pennies away just to kind of test that out cuz You were at mid-market and they're pretty pretty liquid.

[1:15:03] >> Yeah, I was I moved the uh I moved both of them up like 5 cents cuz I I want to get $2 exactly cuz I'm crazy for the zero day. I think it was trading at like $1.90. So, I need I probably need a downside move to get filled there. Uh

[1:15:19] >> but yeah, same story in the one day downside move. Five point downside move >> for your $2. >> What else you watching? Lose. >> Did you ever see the movie Better Off Dead? Mikey wants his $2. $2.

[1:15:33] >> I haven't seen that in a very long time. >> I need it. I haven't seen that in a very >> You know what I put on last night? Point Break. >> Yes. >> That is my movie right there. Love that

[1:15:45] apparently. >> Yeah. Not They already made it. Yeah. Not interested at all. Didn't even watch it. I'm You can't >> can't I can't. No. Can't do it.

[1:15:58] I got to restart that. >> Yeah. Oh, God. Love that movie. Well, I'm a huge Patrick sees fan. I mean, I was Well, I still am. He's not around, but I I was always a huge fan of his for sure. Uh, you got filled.

[1:16:11] >> Oh, you did get filled. Okay. So, you're still working the Iron Condor right now? >> Yep. Yep. So yeah, the one day Super Bowl did the 7450 7440 10point wide put

[1:16:23] Bowl did the 7450 7440 10point wide put spread to finance uh 74 7540 7545 long call spread. So 10 point wide to finance a five point wide debit spread. But again, if you get a 10 10point rally, 15 point rally, it'll be a $100 winner. Uh

[1:16:38] and that's really all I'm trying to get is just a quick a quick movement in the >> There you go. >> Listen, I know you I know you trade a lot. I know you trade NAS. I know like Microsoft is like the one name. But do

[1:16:51] besides that? I feel like you don't always trade many individual names. >> Jamal, if you were to look at my account right now, I have scrolling positions. I'm an absolute trading junkie. But it's just but but I just I'm like I go

[1:17:05] roll them out in time. But I trade four different accounts. I trade an IRA. I trade one of my husband's accounts as well. So I trade each of them completely >> Different. And I' I've talked about people I've talked like about that for

[1:17:19] accounts but trading them differently is a nice thing to do especially like in a trading account like we do and then an account where you got long-term stuff earlier putting Microsoft in your back pocket whether it's a leap call or

[1:17:34] don't look at >> that those I think that's one of the best things to do. I learned that a long time ago and it's been beneficial. accounts this weekend with my husband. He doesn't trade at all by the way. He

[1:17:46] this account I do this and this account I do this and that. I go this is my can we just call it something else. I was [laughter] sure >> the home run accounting home run account. Yeah.

[1:17:59] be able to take shots but I didn't want that to affect my like theta P&L. So literally just selling premium in. And that one does really well. But if I this buying things in there and it messes up my theta numbers. So I have to put

[1:18:13] too cuz you're just looking at these positions and you're like, "Oh, even if close this? Should I close this?" >> My son actually had this similar the exact same situation, but just the idea of risk management. He had on a

[1:18:26] play during the game, the Mexico game um where I don't remember Mexico and had, but it was like shots on goal for some stuff and like Harry Kane to score goal and like uh England to win, like all these different things. And most of

[1:18:39] them had happened and it was like 40 minute like maybe 40 minutes left and he's trying to decide if Harry Kane was gonna get another shot on goal. No, it goal. I think Harry Kane needed one three corner kicks. He needed three

[1:18:51] corner kicks and Harry Kane shot on goal and he had a $10 bet that was already at stuff, I'm like, I'm not telling you how to manage it, but I'm just telling you, [laughter] about how much No, because he was asking us. And I was like, well,

[1:19:04] much time is left. about the likelihood of these things and think about how the you [snorts] can and then but what I just did. He decided to close it out, booked his 170 and he put some profit in

[1:19:18] case they came back and then he has money now to do some other things. And >> There you go. >> Oh, were you so proud you didn't have to kind of happy about it. It's like he figured out how to

[1:19:31] >> managing winners watching Chase. Look, I always tell people making the losing your feelings around winners and losers. And so the way we got here, again, account, sometimes it's nice to just put stuff in account where you just don't

[1:19:44] see it. Cuz managing winners is just as hard as managing losers, man. When you have money, it's like, oo, what do I do here? What do I do? say the home run account, a lot of times they're flops. It's flops or home runs.

[1:19:57] account because it's not I I I just want to be clear. It's not like, "Oh, these winners." Sometimes there's losers. >> You don't think about that cuz you think about the home runs that he hit all the

[1:20:10] Don't worry about it. >> Depending home run account. home run account. I'm only glancing at the chat cuz somebody is talking about Norway. Is Norway playing? >> Yeah, Norway won uh yesterday as well.

[1:20:23] That guy uh Holland, is it Holland? Is that how you say his name? >> He is. [laughter] I see the video of him just eating and then he sees himself in >> Yeah. >> Is like completely full of food and then

[1:20:36] he turns and he sees himself and he's like, [laughter] >> He's great. Yeah. >> My my son is actually flew into Helsinki and he's going to Norway today. He flew into Helsinki weekend and he's going to

[1:20:49] account while he's gone. >> Seriously? [laughter] Well, oh, that is amazing for him because they play. How long is he staying there? He'll be there for the next seven days. Well, today they're still they're still in Helsinki.

[1:21:01] then they leave for Norway tomorrow. >> Oh, well, they play again on they play the 11th. >> Yeah. So, they he'll be in Norway cuz >> 11. Oh, yeah. Well, then that's awesome, man. Oh my god. He's Oh, that's going to

[1:21:15] be sick for him watching the game there. >> That's why I just glanced in the chat. I that." He's gonna he's gonna love that. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's been It's been They're They're getting more interesting for sure. Like, there's been good games. So,

[1:21:27] [gasps] USA plays tonight, folks. USA plays tonight. And uh we got the guy got him back. He's been playing our one of our best guys. I think he's like basically the best guy. So, it's going to be great. USA and Belgium. Let's go.

[1:21:39] >> What time is it? Tonight, do we know? >> 7 p.m. our time. >> Yeah. [laughter] Everywhere is going to be packed. Everywhere, I'm sure. be. >> Yeah, for sure. I mean, I I like it as

[1:21:51] it gets a little farther. in the beginning. I'm not So, you know, >> I feel like we're What are we? Round of 16 going into the >> Yeah, we're in round 16. Um, we just finished round of 16 last night and uh

[1:22:05] finish round 16. I'm tripping. We're We're still in it. We still got a few through round 16. >> Love it. many so many interesting >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

[1:22:19] look at this. You are our test pancake right now. I want to see what happens >> He got filled. >> You got filled on both? one. >> Okay, good. So, leave that. Let's just

[1:22:31] replace it right out of the spin when we when we open. I'm actually working in on. So, I can also tell you if it worked or not. >> Lovely. But yeah, the uh the one day Super Bowl got filled on it and we will

[1:22:46] what happens here on this on this market open. But yeah, we've got just about a minute until the equity market opens. E- mini's up 30, NASDAQ up 280, down the Russell red, Bitcoin flat. Uh, from a futures market perspective, corn up 3%.

[1:23:03] >> I forgot I had a corn position, honestly. No, I didn't forget. It's just a trip. I need to sell one of these. >> Yeah, I I I did forget that I had a corn >> Yes, you do. >> Long August, short July. picking up some

[1:23:18] >> Long August, short July. picking up some value pre-market here. Um, and then guys have similar positions on nine times out of ten? >> Um, we got a we got a decent amount of positions that we share together and

[1:23:30] at other times. I mean, there's a high probability of like basically when we're positions and then we go our separate ways and then we do other stuff. So, as talking Yeah. when you're talking to people that have I mean you might have

[1:23:45] opinions but but they when you talk to people you kind of all formulate the same opinion on Microsoft. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean if he I was doing something crazy he'd probably talk me out of it and vice versa, right? I mean

[1:23:58] [laughter] >> you would I want to see how this goes. bell. >> Hey minis up 32 catching a bit. It seems

[1:24:12] >> Hey minis up 32 catching a bit. It seems like uh still not filled on that zero So, we'll see. >> Oh, you just got >> Yeah, there you go. You got filled. It

[1:24:25] >> So, you can put on a trade that's in the 24hour and and it'll still work >> No. And the S&P markets are tight. I will tell you because I've been doing it will tell you because I've been doing it every single day in the 24 hours. But I

[1:24:37] very big product. I do believe they are a bit tighter once the market is >> Yeah. >> So Mike just filled immediately right was that much of a movement. I mean SPUs are now at 42 where we you needed a down

[1:24:51] needed. But the markets do tighten up a little bit once we open >> for sure. >> Selling off again like >> the down Russell just ticked green here. Um I already have a working order in for

[1:25:04] Um I already have a working order in for that one day uh the Super Bowl. If I can minis, it'll probably fill and be a $200 winner again. So, trying to go three for three here, we'll see if we can do it. >> Three for three. I love it. This is like

[1:25:19] kids. They have the short puts and then when they go to college this year, >> I love it. >> Super Bowl and SPX, it it can work well. >> Yeah. And when and when set up properly, you've got a lot of room to be wrong to

[1:25:33] if it's going to if it if you're going to lose, you're going to lose. If if it there. >> Yeah. But yeah, I've got 70 points >> Yeah. >> Uh for this one. So, yeah, I like it.

[1:25:49] >> And the early going. We got a lot of semis up. Got Marvel, uh AAT, uh STX, those memory names. WDC, SanDisk, Sandis back over 1,800. Micron back over a,000. back over 1,800. Micron back over a,000. AMD moving. Meta's up pretty strongly

[1:26:04] here. Haven't seen that in a while. Um Tesla, most of the Mag 7 is kind of up except for Microsoft and Nvidia. Apple is slightly flat. So some bullishness >> What do you think the market's going to happen with your microns and the things

[1:26:19] of that nature when that on Friday when we get the SKH Heinix IPO? Do you think a lot of those names will go down because you don't need the proxy anymore? So those names have been a proxy for

[1:26:31] and Friday you can trade the [clears throat] real thing instead of using the proxy. >> I don't think so. I don't I don't think try and trade SKH Heck. I think they all trade together because everybody

[1:26:43] believes in the whole story. I saw the biggest data center that I have seen yet to Wisconsin. Huge right outside of right outside of Shbboen, Wisconsin. I

[1:26:55] mean, the amount of space that this thing is taking up is insane. So, I think it's just a broad story, and I think it's just another name that's move up and move down when they move down, honestly. Um,

[1:27:08] >> No, I I mean, >> I kind of agree with you. I think the market can kind of open up and have and have lots of lots of room for everybody, your point, they probably do love the story. It's kind of like SpaceX.

[1:27:20] going to go down when all the money had to shift from space into SpaceX and it volatility, but it didn't. It didn't move the way that everybody expected it to. >> Yeah. I I just don't see it. Um,

[1:27:34] SpaceX? >> SpaceX? Uh, yeah. I closed that out uh sometime I know I closed it out sometime last week, I think. >> Looking good. >> No, it is.

[1:27:49] I don't know if I want to hold it or close it. Yeah, [laughter] >> you don't you don't put orders in to take profits where you want them, Mike. it up and and look at it. >> Um, so for for longer term trades, like

[1:28:05] I would say this is kind of a longerterm trade, 11 days butterfly where it's still going to move a lot. I will just look at it. But these S&P trades, like you could you could get filled without even visually seeing it cuz you have the

[1:28:17] flow just so quickly. So the zero day stuff and the one day stuff, uh, I do have orders in for GTC's >> just so that I don't miss it cuz it could be a 10-second window where you get hit. Uh, and I've seen that before

[1:28:30] you would have been filled and then it's gone. So, >> yep. uh for the really near-term stuff, definitely use GTC orders, but I also have the ability to look at the platform a lot during the day, so I don't feel

[1:28:43] like uh I wouldn't be able to manage something that's more long-term. >> Yeah, you that is nice. That is one thing. So, I do we used to say this all trader, make sure you got closing orders in for everything because you're not

[1:28:58] point, you're sitting here like the junkies that we are and if you see a it because your P&L is going to change and then that's gonna that's going to >> Yeah. So like this right here, this this is the one day Super Bowl. It's chopping

[1:29:11] around. It's up 150 75 90. So like the bid ass spreads are still a little bit wide, but if you get a 10point rally in the E- minis, this will probably fill for the $200 profit target >> because it's just so just a fast moving

[1:29:24] >> for sure. Folks in the chat, please like, subscribe, and share all tasty >> Please, please. Are there any trade ideas in the chat thus far? >> Any trade ideas thus far? Let's see.

[1:29:39] keep an >> eye seen any early on. >> Everyone's recovering from their

[1:29:51] >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Did you guys see firework? Well, ridiculous here. >> Yeah, I saw saw some fireworks. they had like there was like 30 boats on the water and they were blasting it off

[1:30:07] >> Where? [laughter] >> In uh Monqua, Wisconsin. So, yeah. >> Oh, you were in Monaco? >> I was in Monaco. Yeah. >> Do you do that a lot? >> Yeah. Yeah. At least at least once or

[1:30:22] >> Yeah. Monaco's great. >> The old the yacht club. Thirsty Whale. >> Shout out to the thirsty whale. >> You know it. [laughter] here. >> Yeah, something like that.

[1:30:38] >> Pretty far. We didn't We got lucky. We didn't have any traffic really. Uh busy on the way back yesterday. >> Yeah. >> Oh, quick fade in the markets. We jumped up. Now we're pulling back some.

[1:30:51] feel like every morning we get that like we get a quick you know we're going to putting on the super >> well so I mean honestly I know this was an old research study from the past but Zajun when he was here and I loved when

[1:31:05] he did this did a study where the the first 30 minutes of the market he said trade but the first 30 minutes of the market you're it's kind of everybody's getting open sometimes there's some randomness and then at 9:00 is when you

[1:31:18] get 9 to 10 is when you get more 5inut minute up bars, then you get five minute that research because it was helpful for me at 9:00 to be like, "Okay, I'm fine because if you want to get a quick in and out."

[1:31:31] >> Yeah. Especially if you're It gives you the opportunity to get in lower, too. Like that. What we just saw, if you would have put if you had something in that was like 50 cents lower than the market, you probably would have gotten

[1:31:43] filled on that little dip we just saw. >> Yeah, for sure. So yeah, it gives you it just gives you that nice time where markets get more liquid. You can kind of see what the tape is looking like. Right now it looks pretty bullish to me. I

[1:31:56] mean, it's it's not we haven't faded too much, but >> again, that can change pretty quickly. Uh so we'll see see. reference the VIX. Right now we're at 16. I mean, I if Chris Beckio comes

[1:32:11] fruition comes to fruition, I need it in the 15 handle. I need VIX to just kind of meander north, meander up [clears throat] and >> no, I kind of like VIX at these levels like 17, 18. Still moving around a lot.

[1:32:23] know? I don't know if we get a 15 VIX when when when you got these semi names they move around that like they have. I just think I think >> we dipped a toe in the water last week in the 15 handle.

[1:32:39] >> Yeah, the VIX futures are in pretty decent contango. you got over a point between the N, the Q, the U, and then uh flattens out at the end of the year, which is fair. But yeah, I think I think we'll probably have a slightly elevated

[1:32:53] earnings coming up in two weeks >> that uh could push and pull the market >> especially with, you know, your Microsofts, your microns, what have you. >> Um, but Liz, we're going to take a quick

[1:33:08] break here. appreciate your time and uh hopefully you you are getting some S&P hopefully you you are getting some S&P action this morning. But 9:00 am 9 to >> Love [laughter] it. >> All right, boys. Happy trading. Have a

[1:33:21] >> Likewise. Uh we're going to take a quick 90 second break here on Tasty Live. You'll see we'll see you on the other side of it.

[1:33:38] Taking off strategies, that's also pretty easy. But what do you do with everything in between? Well, in our options crash course strategy series, the winners. We're going to show you how to handle the losers, but most

[1:33:51] importantly, we're going to show you how to handle everything in between with simple and clear guidelines and reference points. We'll see you guys reference points. We'll see you guys there.

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[1:37:30] show. My name is Mike. I'm here with Jamal. E- Minis are up 30. NASDAQ's up 300. Got some single name stocks flying around. Micron up 25. >> Uh Iron up five bucks. Intel up five bucks.

[1:37:43] Microsoft down. Kind of crazy to see, but we have a very special guest on the today, this morning? >> Good. Thank you so much for having me. >> Absolutely. What do you got your eye on today? Anything

[1:37:58] moving your needle here on these this morning market? >> Um, well, a couple things. One, I've been away for the last 10 days, so I'm back into the swing of things. I really try to get away a little bit here and

[1:38:11] there. So, I really didn't pay much attention to the market um last week, but I think it's, you know, I think it's kind of interesting here because a lot of the MAG7 stocks are bearish um or neutral with a weakening trend score.

[1:38:24] So, I think the general market here showing some weakness, which I find interesting because like you said, like the open's been pretty good so far, but I don't know if we're starting to see a a sector rotation into more um you know,

[1:38:38] utility defensive plays. I know the Dow hit I think an all-time high at some point last week. So, I just think it's really interesting that you're you're here in the short term. >> So, we're we're option traders, Kevin,

[1:38:51] and we're always looking at volatility. We're always looking at um you know a Microsoft or whatever and we're trying to find ways to get long it or um names probably selling call spreads in it. Like that's how we are drawn to trades.

[1:39:04] How are you drawn to trades as like a a stock trading analysis person? >> Yeah. Um I am not an options trader so I've been watching your guys show trying to learn and get better. I I haven't been great at options. So, I'm more of a

[1:39:16] swing trader personally and the algorithm we have is more about catching stocks that have a lot of support underneath them and not a lot of overhead resistance. So, basically, you know, asymmetric bets.

[1:39:29] though? Like what like you've been away for a bit, so like now you're coming back. What names are like are you drawn into? Is it something that's like on its like pulled back and I think it could go higher. Like how are you what's what's

[1:39:41] your like what what are ideas that are how are you drawn to ideas immediately? how are you drawn to ideas immediately? Yeah. Uh, well, our algorithm gives every stock a trend score. So, I look for stuff that is either neutral or

[1:39:53] bullish with an increasing trend score because that usually means the price is going to go up. Um, not not a guarantee, but we measure map all these different technical levels and we look for these confluence or pivot points and we look

[1:40:05] support underneath them and not a lot of overhead resistance. So, we really like overhead resistance. So, we really like um UFO here looks good. Uh, Palanteer looks good. Dell is getting close to overhead resistance and if it breaks

[1:40:20] run. So, those are some of the interesting stocks. Like I said, the DI DIA is probably my favorite right now out of, you know, SPY, QQQ, DIIA, IWM, strength here. >> Gotcha. Gotcha. Um, yeah. I mean, see,

[1:40:36] now that's fascinating. So, I'll tell you as somebody who started off a little a real trading analysis guy, but I I understand it in as a simple way. One of the harder things for me to do early on was to m match it up with options

[1:40:49] those names you mentioned like uh the easiest one is probably DIA. Like DIA is easiest one is probably DIA. Like DIA is one where um the volatility is still fairly low. You could actually you could actually make a case for buying calls in

[1:41:03] feel like cuz I'm pretty sure you're looking at this chart and you're like this could break out and go to higher highs, right? This is one where you could do that. Dell, here's where it gets dicey when you talk about options.

[1:41:16] Dell is expensive and it's hard to rationalize buying calls or call spreads in and Dell right now. That's one where probably you buy a short maybe you you sell a put spread because it's just and you don't want to expose yourself too

[1:41:28] look at that as far as option traders. So um but I mean those are good names >> Yeah, I think when it comes down to the the strategy itself, like to Jamal's point, you I look at Dell, I see 80% IV, I want to be selling something in here

[1:41:43] or or if I'm buying something, it's going to be with a really strong short premium component. But like the diamonds, uh, this is an absolute like diagonal spread candidate for me, just because you've got 16% IV, which is

[1:41:57] super low, low IV rank as well. Uh, so it just sets up in a cheap way. Like this is a 15 point wide diagonal spread I have queued up here, 530, 545, and it's less than $1,000 with $5, $600 of max profit to the upside if you get a

[1:42:13] move up there. So yeah, I think uh looking at these and just analyzing the different implied volatilities, but also yeah, looking at products that have some room to run to the upside like UFO and then yeah, it's it is interesting to see

[1:42:27] the MAG 7 sector kind of on its butt here. I mean, it's been you've had the E- Minis and NASDAQ down the Russell ripping higher, but the MAG7s that you would have thought would be leading the charge are simply not.

[1:42:40] >> I know, right? Last question for you. you excited for SK Highix this week? >> Uh yeah, I like I said, I'm just getting right back into uh right back into the beat on everything, but you know, there's always opportunities in markets.

[1:42:54] So, I think you just got to find, you know, like you guys said, like be smart about where you place your bets here. >> 100%. Well, thank you, Kevin. Appreciate your time. Uh we will take a quick break here on Tasty Live. We'll be back on the

[1:43:06] here on Tasty Live. We'll be back on the other side of it.

[1:43:22] approved FINRA's proposal to eliminate the pattern day trader rule, also known as the PDT rule. This is a big deal for many retail traders. For more than 20 years, the PDT rule has been a major roadblock for smaller accounts that

[1:43:37] wanted to actively trade stocks or options intraday. In other words, we call it day trading. Here's how it used to work. If you made four or more day day period, your account could be flagged with a pattern day trader

[1:43:52] designation. To keep that status, your margin account had to maintain at least $25,000. If your balance closed below that amount, your account could be restricted from trading and issued a PDT related

[1:44:05] call. At Tasty Trade, they're called an equity maintenance call or an EM call. The result, retail traders with smaller accounts were effectively limited from actively participating in markets simply because they didn't have enough capital.

[1:44:21] Now, that's changing. Under the approved update to FINRA rule 4210, the PDT designation is being removed. And that means you no longer have to limit the number of day trades you make in a five business day period. And you no longer

[1:44:36] have to maintain $25,000 minimum just to keep day trading in your margin account. In short, as long as your buying power stays positive, you can continue to day trade in your margin account. On our platform, we show

[1:44:49] realtime buying power so you can always see where you stand and keep your risk in check. Now, it's important to talk about timing. While this news can be exciting, these rules will not take effect overnight. The new rules will

[1:45:04] become active 45 days after FINRA publishes its regulatory notice. After that, firms that need more time to update their system will have that additional time up to 18 months to fully phase in those changes. So, be sure to

[1:45:17] check with your broker for their specific rollout timeline. And remember, day trading is extremely risky and not suitable for everyone. You must be trade. It's critical to manage your positions carefully and to fully

[1:45:30] understand the risk of potential loss. We'll continue to keep Taste Trade account holders up to date as information becomes available. So stay tuned. >> There's a beast in the financial world

[1:45:44] >> There's a beast in the financial world and it's not the bull. If that's [music] you, join us on Tasty Trade. Trade. Genius loves company.

[1:46:09] show. We got the E- Minis and Nasdaq trying to catch a bid here. E- minis are trying to catch a bid here. E- minis are up 45. NASDAQ's up 450 now and the Dow just ticked red. So, lots of uncertainty this morning uh after about 22 minutes

[1:46:22] of trading. But got E on the line from the SIBO floor >> and uh we need a decibel need a decibel report. What do you what does it sound like over there? >> Uh you know actually coming in right

[1:46:36] chatting about the Mexico and England game and I'd say that I would give an 8.8 decimal points to the games last night. Uh and then it was pretty crazy like maybe 5 to 10 minutes ago. I I'll give it a smooth uh seven flat.

[1:46:48] >> Beautiful. [laughter] Yeah. What do you think about that? I mean things, through just because obviously my mom's from Mexico descent as well. But I mean

[1:47:02] I think it was a really good game. I mean giving up two goals within four And you got Bellingham just wide open on the back post. So I think some things could have been avoidable especially with the size

[1:47:15] ball in the box. That's tough to score against when they're defending like that I kind of feel for the fans out there. So, shout out to Lee and all the boys. game. I'm excited for tonight for sure. >> Arrow flashing some of the soccer

[1:47:30] know, Arrow played some soccer. Um, yeah, it was it was a crazy game. I mean, isn't it crazy that like they were down a man for majority of that time and they could really get something going? >> Yeah. Uh, not at all. And I mean I think

[1:47:42] was great for them at least just for the morale. But uh I mean even going down 10 men. I mean that's that's tough. That's tough. So um how was your guys' weekend before we get into things here? I know

[1:47:54] it was really foggy as well. Had a lot of soccer this weekend. I know you guys seeing you two gentlemen. >> We were we were both in Wiscon. It was a >> Yeah, we were away from the fog. We were we were we were both in Wisconsin. We

[1:48:07] were away from the the post smoke from the uh the the Navy Pier fireworks. I they had ever lit off and I think that's what happened. But watching the fireworks this morning in the market. Up 40.

[1:48:20] >> Everything everything went swimmingly. Um I did just learn that my AC unit is has been uh blown out. So that's going >> Uh yeah, >> I I need to buy zero day Microsoft calls

[1:48:35] this thing going >> I was about to say, what are we getting Sandis has been pulling back a little bit. Maybe put a little bit of long delta in there. New AC unit. >> Yeah. [laughter] I'm just thinking of

[1:48:47] ways that I can reduce the cost basis on my AC unit that I have to buy now. Uh that's probably going to cost me 10 grand. So everything's fine. >> Yeah, everything's fine. >> Yeah, everything's great. Uh but yeah,

[1:48:59] this morning, E? >> No, you know what? Um I haven't touched getting a little bit loud right. a little loud right now, but I haven't touched Micron or SanDisk >> since Micron was trading at around maybe

[1:49:14] 300 400 bucks. No kidding. >> But I really like the pullback that we're getting on Micron and SanDisk. Again, I'm not I'm not I don't want to catch a falling knife, but I also >> am thinking about getting on a little

[1:49:26] bit of a rebound. Again, I don't want to predict that this is the top or the top is in. I want to let the market prove me otherwise, but with the pullbacks Nikon and Sand Sandis, I don't know. But the the long delta is is uh is in question

[1:49:40] for me at least. Uh what are your guys' thoughts on Micron Sandisk? I know we've seen a little bit of a shakeup, a little bit of a pullback from the top here. >> I I like seeing these type of moves um these back and forth, if you will. And

[1:49:52] so I tried to play him after a while. I first did it last week with Micron I bought >> some call butterflies. So in Micron specifically, I bought 1100, 1200, 1300 call butterfly. um $7 and change. And um

[1:50:08] >> the same thing in SanDisk and I I think it was $100 wide or maybe I went 200. >> the 4 day or the 11 day. >> Uh in the 4day. Yeah. Um 2,000. Yeah, I did $100 wide in Sandis as well. 2,2100 2200. So just seeing if

[1:50:24] Again, they got smoked towards the end of last week. Um >> see what happens. >> Yeah, both of these are 100% both these are relatively cheap. less than $1,000 for a 10k payoff if you pin it. Um, so

[1:50:39] yeah, lots of movement there. I thought it was interesting looking at at uh Micron. If we just look at the 4day versus the 11day, the 4-day options are at right at 1,000. You you have no skew here in the 4-day cycle. We were seeing

[1:50:54] a little bit of put skew uh pre-market. I think maybe that got zapped out with the slight up move we're seeing right now. But you still see call skew in the 11 day. But I think it is interesting. I was just filled on Micron to close that

[1:51:07] >> Nice >> uh for $300 profit. >> So love to see that. But yeah, I think I think you're going to still see some neutral maybe a little bit of downside skew in the near term in Micron, but

[1:51:20] still long term you've got the call skew just because of the runup of the move. think if you're trading things into the call side on the upside, those those because you can collect so much more with the sale of those two short

[1:51:34] options. So, I like it. >> Yeah. No, I I think I'm going to have to consider that butterfly as well with that long delta because I like how that mapped that out. Uh but yeah, no, a lot of volatility in Micron and Sandis.

[1:51:46] catching a falling knife, but I also don't want to be the one to be calling the top and lose babies either. So, I'll lean I'll lean a little long. was just a somewhat of a riskoff

[1:51:58] is this was the second week in a row. Last week was the second week in a row we we saw a sell off in semis. >> Um we'll see if there's a third or if really the story honestly. Maybe this SK highix by the end of the week helps.

[1:52:11] >> Oh yeah, I'm looking forward to that as well. Uh before we go here, USA, Belgium, how are you guys feeling about tonight? >> USA. >> USA. USA. [laughter] Uh, oh jeez.

[1:52:25] Belgium, right? >> Uh, I mean I mean I don't know if you [laughter] >> Yeah, actually. No, I'm just kidding. Um, I'm going to go I'm going to go 20 USA.

[1:52:39] >> Mike, you got any you got any guesses for us? for us? >> Uh, I think we'll go 30 >> USA. It's the post Fourth of July mayhem.

[1:52:52] It's got to be high energy. I think we'll I think we'll get it done. But we'll see what happens. It's going to be a fun match either way. But e, appreciate your time. We'll see you a

[1:53:04] little bit later today. Uh yeah, E- Mini's still trying to catch a bid here. Up 36. NASDAQ up 380. Uh but we're going to take a quick 90 second break here and uh we'll see you on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[1:53:57] courses.tastyrade.com. Start taking control of your financial Start taking control of your financial future. Visit our courses today. >> So, you're an active trader [music] looking to increase your return,

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[1:55:56] Jamal. We've got the E- Minis up 40, NASDAQ up 400, and we've got Tim Knight on the line. And uh very intrigued to see how the holiday went for you Tim on the West Coast.

[1:56:17] with that. But uh >> you're not even happy about fireworks? [laughter] >> Uh I there there is joy in my life. I'll than any fireworks. So I took both my dogs to the beach. One of them for the

[1:56:31] first time. There's this enormous beach called Fort Funston, which is kind of uh called Fort Funston, which is kind of uh like dog heaven. Uh there's hundreds of dogs running around and uh it's deep down a cliff and they had a blast. So

[1:56:45] that was my fireworks display just watching them run around joyfully. Um >> and you know, we had the whole family together which is nice and uh yeah, it >> See, love it. >> That's that's the most happiness you're

[1:56:59] >> [laughter] >> I, you know, given I'd rather see a drone show than a fireworks show. But yeah, this is uh this is this is the uh unfettered joy that [laughter] you're going to reach.

[1:57:12] Um anyway, um so [clears throat] let's see. Let's see. Um I guess maybe we could look at a chart or two. That's always something to >> Absolutely. Let's do it. >> A whirl. Uh in in no particular order

[1:57:26] morning. So, I just had a little little Whitman sampler of items to look at here. Um, the first one, I'm still kind of obsessed with this critter, STRC. Um, as I mentioned, this is the um instrument from strategy. Um, high

[1:57:41] yield, 12% now, I guess. And it's been quite the ride because as we look at the history of this thing, um, it had been sailing along uh, you know, ostensibly, it would in a perfect world it' be like basically 100 all the time and just

[1:57:55] throw off a nice fat dividend. But it it recognized that um being based entirely on Bitcoin Treasury wasn't, you know, didn't justify a peg. So it was kind of respected this trend line for a while, but then things changed here. And this

[1:58:12] but then things changed here. And this is a beautiful example of how um support violated the trend line of this day, fell, pushed up and tried and tried and tried 3 days. Exactly. Tag tag tag. uh

[1:58:25] the trend line there is like ah forget it then it sort of did this swan dive down we go and what's interesting with crypto over the past week is that it's had this um pretty impressive bounce which I think uh reached its apex over

[1:58:39] the weekend uh so we had a bounce here this this poor thing went from around 70 to around 90 and I think the CFO was talking about you know the great glorious things they were do going to do to to get it to that peg and make it

[1:58:53] stick there again but as it is Now, we did reverse away from that strength um on Thursday, I guess it would be. And uh we're just kind of I mean 1.82 is a normal instruments, but for this one, it's kind of steady as she goes. So, I

[1:59:09] think this bounce on that is probably just about shot. And so, what I did on on um Thursday, [clears throat] so again, cuz Friday was a holiday, is um I'm using this line as the basis for my strategy trade. My view was that the

[1:59:24] bounce was terminating as of that level. Um it um and you know so far so good. It's down weirdly. It's down percentage- although they should be kind of perfectly correlated. But um it's down

[1:59:39] perfectly correlated. But um it's down so it's a good start. Uh long-term um the this mega pattern right here is what I'm really focused on. But so I am short I missed here as of Friday at a at a pretty good about as of Thursday at a

[1:59:52] pretty good price. Um so that's clicking along. Um one item that I had been short and I covered a few days ago but I want to get back into again is uh ICE uh

[2:00:04] to get back into again is uh ICE uh which is uh Intercontinental Exchange. one. Not a very heavily traded instrument um but uh big old monster top instrument um but uh big old monster top there. And um this is um this fell

[2:00:19] nicely and then had this this very lusty bounce here especially on Thursday. But I I think it's a um going to be a good time to get back into this one. So something like just kind of eyeballing this here. Something like boink nice

[2:00:32] this here. Something like boink nice tight stop on that one. Uh generally speaking uh like I said a lot of bouncing around here. Um the ENQ continues to be banging around a range it's been in since uh June 12th. Uh

[2:00:46] we've got resistance here, support here. We had tumbled nicely um down [clears throat] to support, but um we we're at 402 points right now. So still kind of a grind fest in there. I suppose when we

[2:01:00] get nice and deep into earning season that might help clarify things um when we get a meaningful number of reports out because there's no really huge economic or political events and of course geopolitical events are

[2:01:13] unscheduled. So all we can kind of count on is that maybe uh as we're getting into the thick of July it'll kind of shape things out of this malaise cuz it's seems to be sort of at a kind of a happy equilibrium right now. Not doing

[2:01:25] much of anything. Um the ES um still tracking this diamond pattern. two bears. Still surviving. We're starting to push away from this in the wrong direction. So this could be a continuation pattern if it just kind of

[2:01:39] pushes up and away from this because it's been consolidating for for months at this point, but is starting to push out and above that um on the diamond. And a few just kind of weird odds and ends. um saw that SpaceX is now

[2:01:53] officially part of the NASDAQ 100 I think the a small part basically fittingly enough you know 1/100th of it uh 1% um but that chatter it's not news

[2:02:06] to anybody this was expected but it is um perhaps helping boost it a bit it's up about 2.3%. Um, the history of SpaceX is is you basically blasted higher 3 days, collapsed the next 3 days, steadied

[2:02:21] itself, and now it's doing a pretty decent job around the 160ish level. Uh, there's really nothing meaningful we're going to learn from this until kind of two almost exactly same timed events. August 11, the first big um the is is

[2:02:38] the is not even big, the first release of um that lock up either 20 or 30% depending on the price of the stock and the earnings which uh as of today I that's going to be but the earnings their first public uh earnings

[2:02:54] announcement. So that'll be an interesting August for SBCX. Um but as a chartist I mean there's nothing to go on here. It's interesting to watch but there's just no meaningful conclusion one can draw you know except on a tickby

[2:03:09] tick basis from this and as an example of that um Crisis which is also quite young but like five or six times older than SpaceX you can see here this I mean you could have say back here said hey things are looking good looking stable

[2:03:24] looking like a bite no it's it's just it's just too little to go on uh it's going to be a while uh many months at least before you can say anything meaningful about it from a charting perspective. Um, one item that is uh

[2:03:38] interest that does have some history to it uh is SanDisk, which of course had been a sensation. Um, this thing I forget the the level, but it went up percent. I don't know if it was 4,000 or what, but in like a year, just some

[2:03:52] what, but in like a year, just some insane lift from like $20 to, you know, 2500. Um, but it did break with quite a lot of trauma. Um it's a very stiff trend line from last week. Um uh there was a big drop on that cuz these storage

[2:04:08] stocks uh like this and WDC have been just just monsters. So that's that's just just monsters. So that's that's cracked. And the last one um a rare bullish idea. Uh I I like the look of StubHub. Um this is um you know I always

[2:04:23] like to say as far as context. It's a little awkward to say anything bullish in a market that's so richly valued, but you know, hats off the StubHub. It does shoulders. It has a nice sort of lift there. East bag pushing higher again.

[2:04:38] So, that's um that that's worth the look. ST and that is it. That's all I got. >> Well, I tell you what, I am 100% with you on CBRS. I was actually short of calling here and um it was about to

[2:04:51] well, it's it's 11 days ago, but I just rolled it out further. I was trying to but you inspired me, Tim. You inspired me to keep it on and I rolled it out to and CBRS. I think it's going to be a while. You're right.

[2:05:04] >> Thanks, buddy. >> Appreciate your time, Tim. We will see >> And I got to check out that dog beach. I think that sounds like [laughter] a good time. >> Fort Funston. Fortunes

[2:05:23] Microsoft's trying to catch a bid here. Down six. It was just down like five and Down six. It was just down like five and change. Uh only 1.5%. So trudging along, but caught a nice bid from last week down at 350 all the way back up to 380.

[2:05:36] We'll see if we can catch a continued bid here. But we've got our next guest on the line, Julia. And uh Julia, I'm sure you've got some nice research for holiday? >> Amazing. How was yours?

[2:05:49] >> Fantastic. No complaint. You can see people who went to the lake. There were go watch the fireworks and it was just like fog. >> just fog. So, it was just flashing sky, which is super cool. Um, but I got some

[2:06:03] of the uh up close personal fireworks. Uh, I did not My view was just fine. >> Incredible. >> Incredible. Amazing. >> Yeah. Some We were uh both in Wisconsin, so we got the the full shebang with, you

[2:06:17] know, the neighbors blowing off mortars, all that jazz. Yeah. Oh my god. Some loud stuff up there, man. >> Boom. [clears throat] Can't even There's no smoke really. They're just tiny little light that you

[2:06:32] yeah, those are the best. >> Yeah. >> Put it in reverse, Terry. [laughter] >> The classic video. yeah. >> You ready for ready for some slides? We

[2:06:46] go, I think, pretty fast. We're looking at the last quarter. Kai put this piece guys want to give him a follow. It's a a different account he switched over to. yeah, we're just talking about the last quarter. Had a had a crazy quarter. How

[2:07:02] >> I feel like we're going to see some volatility. >> I love it. I love this. This environment suits my trading style. That's honestly suits my trading style. That's honestly >> market go up. Market go up, market pull

[2:07:15] pull back. >> And then market go. Yeah. So, we're to talk about uh what, you know, expanded, what contracted, all kind of be mostly focused on uh price performance. So, let's get into it. So,

[2:07:29] best quarter since 2020, which is kind of crazy. S&P up 15%. Which is near double what it normally returns in a year around 8 n% uh historically. Uh and then NASDAQ up 27% just showing you like how much like tech

[2:07:44] especially this u memory and semiconductor names have just been like absolutely exploding. Um chip equipment makers especially in June. Um commodities we're seeing a contraction um kind of like a much needed one

[2:07:57] especially with crude. Uh but 31% that's a pretty big contraction with gold down 14% and silver down 22%. Especially with like gold historically being like a store of value that's a pretty significant contraction for a commodity

[2:08:09] like that. and commodia adjacent. Bitcoin fell 20%. Um, still kind of doing still kind of doing a whole lot of nothing. And then SpaceX was obviously a pretty big event um from the last couple of months uh weeks. Uh largest IPO in

[2:08:22] history, topping a $2 trillion market value on its first trading day, which is I mean we got some other names coming up later uh that are valued less, but this was a really big event, especially having not a ton of IPOs uh like really

[2:08:35] big ones I would say in the last couple of years. Yeah, I mean crude obviously but uh gold, silver, and bitcoin, those are the areas that people usually go for those and got into semis.

[2:08:48] >> Yeah, out in the semis. So chips start I guess hoarding the chip guys. Um, but we movers from the last quarter and like stand uh and Micron just like absolutely

[2:09:00] exploded up 256% in a quarter and then 242 respectively followed by Intel, AMD, of see up there. Um, but yeah, just showing you again memory semiconductor

[2:09:13] anything semiconductor adjacent just had a really really strong quarter and then data dog pala networks um applied materials. So again, like very techheavy, strong performers. Looking at the downside, we're seeing some consumer

[2:09:25] names in here. We got Lulu, CME, Netflix. Um, and then into a Turboax. I have helped them out a little bit, but they contracted 39% on the quarter. One of the worst uh per or the worst performer in the quarter in the S&P 500.

[2:09:40] >> crazy that all of those green bars are over 100%. [laughter] >> It's pretty spicy. It's insane. It's >> absolutely nuts. >> Everything on the left is just like 25%

[2:09:56] 30%. It's just, you know, your classic >> bad quarter. But all the ones on the >> Yeah. Right. >> Insanity. >> Yeah. Which like 25 down 25% on the on the quarter like that's not in

[2:10:10] comparison that's not too bad, but I feel like historically that's not great. lot. But I think just like with prices being so volatile and with so like you know strong directional trends that we've seen in the last couple of years

[2:10:24] know I guess used to it at this point. And then in the the next slide we're uh well in June so far. The biggest or in the S&P 500 in June. And again we're seeing apply materials in this list. And

[2:10:37] kind of what we talked about last Monday when we did our market overview. Uh stocks, biotech stocks as well um starting to shine. Um SanDisk still still going, parallel to networks still

[2:10:52] going. So those haven't yet to slow down. Um but now we're seeing a couple more like healthcare names, biotech names sort of rise to the top. And then uh again, I guess nobody's doing their taxes into it. Another large loser in

[2:11:04] seeing some interesting names sort of populate the bottom. Qualcomm, Palanteer, Oracle, SMCI are showing a contraction over just like a very stellar quarter um you know before.

[2:11:18] Qualcomm to the downside and I I'm sure of putting that and that thing's gotten rocked while all these other names have moved up these other semis but yeah definitely not a surprise. Software has gotten smoked into it as well. It's been

[2:11:32] >> Yeah, Qualcomm was also surprising to me just cuz it's been around for a while. So like having this much volatility um has just been interesting to see and this much of a contraction as well. Um

[2:11:44] interesting one at least for me on the list and then uh Coinbase as well I guess is not as much as a surprise. >> Yeah, >> cool. Yeah, let's go to the next slide. So uh yeah, best quarter since 2020 and

[2:11:57] from 2020 we were coming off like some serious serious bottoms. Uh so that was um yeah it's just really interesting to see uh NASDAQ up 27%, Russell up 21%, S&P up 15% and then the Dow lagging behind a little bit up but still up 13%

[2:12:12] which is a very strong year for the Dow uh and we're talking about a quarter. So, uh, yeah, it's just, uh, I get to see, uh, putting this within a little bit of historical context and then, uh, looking out since like 2000 just how

[2:12:26] aggressively equities markets have grown, just how much these kind of like bluish positive bars have outweighed the sort of down years or quarters, I should say. Yeah, I think this one's really interesting because it's it the gains

[2:12:40] are not followed by a big sell-off like that 2020 previous high like you said that was COVID everything down sell it all and then you get the big reversal where this is just like a little blip to the downside followed by a momentous

[2:12:55] rally that exceeds everything except for that 2020 blip and then 2010 but 2010 was also followed uh was a following the the big sell-off there. So, kind of

[2:13:07] crazy to see that the lack of the lack of red the previous quarter uh did not upside. >> Yeah, then I think the Russell is the other interesting story here, up 21% where it

[2:13:21] outperformed the S&P, right? So, I think that's actually a pretty um uh what's because we've talked a lot about how like a small handful of companies have index lifting up the entire market outperforming as a whole and with like

[2:13:37] small caps starting to really shine and showing that potentially uh the rest of smaller companies are starting to catch up a little bit. So to me that's like I starting to outperform um we're seeing volatility there and well so very

[2:13:52] tradable uh with the uh with options. >> Yeah. Cool. Okay, let's go through some of these other slides. Uh, looking at SpaceX, uh, I mean, just we've already this to death uh, a little bit, but uh, with Anthropic filing a $965 billion

[2:14:08] valuation and OpenAI expected to follow. Just really exciting year for IPOs and this was one IPO where retail investors were highly engaged. So, um, kind of very exciting to sort of like talk about and see what the retail investors are

[2:14:21] stuff going on there. >> I see. PC Saudi Ramico I feel like they they didn't at least list on the US markets, I don't think. >> That said, I've been seeing their name a whole lot during the soccer stuff.

[2:14:37] >> Yeah, they're uh yeah, they're big name. I have to double check that. I thought have to fact check that. That's a good call out. call out. >> Yeah, SpaceX has almost 17 million

[2:14:49] shares traded today. That's like basically right behind Nvidia. So, lots of activity. Yeah. >> Yeah. And it's it's sustained, which I maybe like first couple days of trading, I saw that it outpaced like the S&P or

[2:15:03] I'm sorry, the the MAG 7 combined in terms of trade volumes, which is crazy, but it's still kind of continuing. So, I was curious to see if this becomes kind of like more of a staple name. Um, a lot of like obviously concerns around SpaceX

[2:15:15] around like Tesla in terms of like PE ratios and like long-term profitability but I I don't know. We're going to have >> Oh, yeah. That doesn't matter. >> That stuff doesn't matter.

[2:15:30] >> Nobody looks at sheets anymore. All right, let's go to the next slide. >> So, just to kind of put it in perspective, how absolutely bananas uh Sandex SanDisk has been moving. Um as well, uh Micron actually had a very

[2:15:43] well, uh Micron actually had a very similar quarter in Q2. Um picks and shovels beat the headline names. AMD, um, Micron, Nvidia, uh, just again like strong quarter, but we're starting to see some kind of contractions and

[2:15:57] semiconductor adjacent names kind of that we talked about in the last slide. little bit of a quieter name, but still very strong quarter. bingo card. >> Same with Intel.

[2:16:12] >> same with SanDisk. [laughter] >> I didn't have SanDisk on my bingo card. >> Sand has got my bingo card. That's crazy. And it's been on the bingo card for the last I don't know, however many rounds of bingo that we're at. Um, but

[2:16:26] yeah, AI trade splitting the market. Um, chips are so soaring basically while software is lagging. Um, everything a lot of it still captured by the NASDAQ. you're trading these kind of like diversified indices, uh, you can kind of

[2:16:39] catch wherever that momentum is, whether it's software or whether it's in chips all getting reflected in the NASDAQ, which I think is a really, you know, you know, good case for trading again those like ETFs, diversified names. Um, and a

[2:16:54] lot of this is down to like AI memory, high performance memory. Um, and yeah, with Yeah, Sandis was not on my card. >> Not at all. >> I have long deltas in both these sectors, semis and software.

[2:17:06] >> Yeah, >> you're still long. long deltas short puts mostly in the semis and long deltas via like super bowls and and the software sector >> long until proven wrong. Yeah,

[2:17:19] >> With Yeah, just comparing semiconductor stocks against software. But again, like with the NASDAQ and with even the S&P 500, you can really like capture whatever area is kind of like, you know, striving I would say. Um but then the

[2:17:32] other story is crude uh crude fell 31% below $70 top 89th percentile quarterly decline. It's a very large like high velocity decline in crude oil contracting back down um and then with the S&P kind of going up uh on a variety

[2:17:47] of other news but crude certainly playing a part of that as well like as well as like the geopolitical context. Um energy stocks fell only 13% showing a commodity as a whole. Uh but again uh like the kind of stickiness of the

[2:18:01] long it takes for that to kind of catch up. I love this chart because starting in March, it was clear that it was like the basically crude oil is the VIX of the market. And if you look at the S&P and VIX over a long-term chart, this is

[2:18:15] exactly what it'll look like. Basically, you'll see the inverse relationship. >> Yeah. crude the crude backwardations got zapped and now we are just sitting around that 70 sub 70 handle and we have a completely flat curve all the way to

[2:18:31] what February of 2027 everything's in the 68 handle so it's been crazy >> Does that mean that crude traders are just V traders in disguise? >> Yeah, >> still kind of does. I don't know. We're

[2:18:44] seeing a little bit longer expansion contraction but very similar vibes. And then the last one, uh, looking at currencies, oh, the yen, um, reached 162 in Q2, weakest level since the 1990s. Uh, it rose a bit in June and year to

[2:18:59] date. Uh, but again, off of like a pretty rough quarter and pretty rough point. Um, I don't really trade much currencies for a similar reason why I don't really trade much in terms of bonds. Uh,

[2:19:12] just because uh, the like V can be kind of low in these names just inherently. downside or when your you know markets kind of freak out sometimes you can get really trade much by term in terms of currencies as well. Like I remember

[2:19:26] reading I think it was like JP Morgan's yearly outlook back in 2024. They were just like hard bullish on the end and then it proceeded to uh underperform and were. So I think just I don't know. I have a tough time with currencies. I

[2:19:39] don't know how much you guys trade them but rough year for the end. I don't really get it, [laughter] >> but some of the other ones I do. Yeah, mean, this one kind of has a mind of its own at times.

[2:19:53] >> Yeah, I like I like trading the TCFX products and just finding positive carry and just getting long at price extremes or getting short at price extremes and just having that positive carry beta decay, if you will. Um, but yeah, that's

[2:20:10] pretty much it. So that yeah, crazy stuff going on last quarter. We're going yeah, I'm looking at healthcare. I'm looking at small caps. looking at small caps. >> Still looking at SanDisk, um, Qualcomm,

[2:20:23] things. >> Everything. All the things. >> Well, appreciate your time, Julia. Uh, great research as always. And yes, go follow Kai on Twitter if you haven't already. Uh, but we'll see you a little

[2:20:37] >> Peace, guys. >> Adios. Uh, E- Minis catching a bit here. Up 50. Why hasn't Why haven't I not been filled? What's going on on this uh zero day, one day stuff? Maybe in a little bit. Yeah, we're 25 cents away. We'll

[2:20:49] see if we get hit. But we're going to take a quick 90 second break. We'll be back on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[2:22:52] Jamal E- Min. and he's the NASDAQ catching a bid here in the first hour of trading. We got TP on the line. TP, how you doing today?

[2:23:05] >> Everybody does. >> Everybody loves the NASDAQ. >> How was the weekend, man? How was How was the 250th down there in Austin? How was it? >> Oh, the the Yeah, it was fun, actually.

[2:23:18] Um, you know, we had to keep it kind of kind of cool here. We had a a couple of friends over and hung out and grilled some hamburgers and stuff like that. But Jamal, like I was saying uh to everybody on Friday, the dogs go bananas with the

[2:23:33] on Friday, the dogs go bananas with the fireworks. So really it was it was just fireworks. So really it was it was just keeping keeping the dogs, you know, from vibrating too much cuz it they just they just get so scared of fireworks. So

[2:23:45] that's what we spent most of our time doing. Like around 6:30 it started. Um, but we give them Trazodone. I don't know if you have dogs, Jamal. Um, but

[2:23:57] Trazadone or you're a chemist, you would know this stuff. Trazadone, I think, is know this stuff. Trazadone, I think, is the dog version of a human >> tranquilizer kind of. >> Thank See, that's what that's why that's

[2:24:10] why I talked to you about tranquilizer. >> And so, I don't know what it does, but we have to give it to him early enough. Um, and that's kind of what my wife and I were spending most of our time, Fourth of July. But, you know, I do have a

[2:24:24] tower. So, I do have a tower at the Preston Ranch here. So, I went up by myself. My wife and everybody stayed down with the dogs. I went up there to watch the the the personal displays. And the nice thing about Texas is you can

[2:24:36] you can get fireworks here. Um, and because it's rained, there wasn't the huge fire risk that we've had in previous years. So I just go up in my tower and I, you know, can see miles around and all these little cool little

[2:24:49] great thing. >> I mean, can we How was yours, Jamal? Did >> Can we talk about a second that beautiful phrase you said, I have a tower at the Preston Ranch? [laughter] >> Yeah, I do. It was amazing.

[2:25:01] >> Yeah, I do. It was amazing. >> Oh, it's awesome. Jamal, Jamal, I think you've reached the point in your life where you need a tower. [laughter] where you need a tower. [laughter] >> I agree with you. Mike is Mike. Mike's

[2:25:13] still a little young. Mike's Mike got a little ways to go, but Jamal, you're getting to the point where [laughter] >> So, guys, so Mike, did you actually were able to uh did do you have all 10 fingers left? Mike, I know you you like

[2:25:26] to set things off. [laughter] Excellent. >> Excellent. >> Yeah, it's always good. >> Mike is not the nine finger this year. >> I have known to be to blow blow off some mortars here and there, but uh always

[2:25:38] use safety precautions. Just get the extended extended line. It's all you need. >> And you know when all those sales run >> Well, yeah. Light fuse and get away quickly. Light fuse and get away

[2:25:52] quickly. And just, you know, part of my Massachusetts. All this stuff was just prohibited. You couldn't get anything. And that was, you know, back in the 60s and 70s. You couldn't fireworks were

[2:26:05] like, wow. It's like, you know, like nirvana. And so sometimes >> No, go ahead. You're good. >> I thought you said so. So the point is

[2:26:17] that anyone who would bring stuff in from outside like New Hampshire like you know the forbidden zone. Oh my god, that one's just the best. And occasionally we used to have some firecrackers. >> So guys, what I'm looking at today

[2:26:31] um some of the big moves down um Fizer having a massive sell off down 2.43% 43% when I was looking at it last down the equivalent of 1.55 standard

[2:26:44] deviations. So Mike, what I like to do is is to normalize a lot of these symbols. So you know, you can have a big stock with a big price change means a small stand means a relatively small uh percent change. Factoring in volatility,

[2:27:02] it normalizes that. So I like to look at the standard deviation moves. Fizer is down a lot today. The nice thing about Fizer too and I don't know how you guys um whether this is something you you know talk to your family about or you

[2:27:16] know people who aren't maybe as engaged as we are in the market but Fizer if I sell a put in there and I may look at the the ones with 25 days we've got earnings coming up but if you wanted a bullish strategy selling like the 23 put

[2:27:31] um it's got decent numbers in there uh what are the P50 numbers on there Mike? what are the P50 numbers on there Mike? So 80% um yeah buying power effect 400 bucks on a margin account. The other thing too is the dividend uh yield on

[2:27:47] thing too is the dividend uh yield on this stock now is like 7% I think I saw. >> So yeah. So Mike, and by the way, all you have to do when you want to see that, just like Mike did, he clicked on that um that overview um button and you

[2:28:00] see some of the some of the basic stock metrics, earnings, that sort of thing. metrics, earnings, that sort of thing. Dividend, dividend yields,

[2:28:17] 7%. If you're um Home Depot, Home Home Home Home Depot is down a lot today, too. So, I'm looking at buying some um maybe excuse me. So, I'd put spreads in Home Depot if I wanted a um

[2:28:31] bullish trade in that. And finally, another stock that's up a huge amount is uh what was I looking at? Um Dell. Dell computers. And um

[2:28:44] yeah, Dell Computers is traded at 421. If you think um Dell might be rallying here um for whatever reason, again, the skew is pointed towards the upside and Dell options. You've got fairly rich premium in these in these options with

[2:29:01] earnings coming ahead. The liquidity is okay in Dell and you could sell a if you're bullish like I think Mike the third the 39400 put spread collects about a third of the width of the strikes this um

[2:29:17] >> yeah more little more now. Yeah >> about that. Yeah. So you could push that down. You could do an iron condor whichever but Dell has decent uh liquidity um high relatively high implied volatility. So, those are the

[2:29:32] three stocks I'm looking at. Um, Fizer, Home Depot, and Dell. >> Love it. Well, appreciate your insight as always, TP. We will check those out for sure. U Fizer hasn't has been one that I have not checked out too

[2:29:47] >> neither. >> Um, but yeah, Home Depot, Dell. We will going to take a quick break. We will be back on the other side. You're watching back on the other side. You're watching Tasty Live.

[2:30:16] from this morning. Bodacia, our raid really distracted me. I was like, "Get away from me, uncontrollable fire." >> I told you, Tasty Gra, you can't plunder with headphones on. Light pillaging, maybe. Sometimes I'll hide in a gross

[2:30:30] Pete bug in the middle of a raid just so I don't miss market measures. >> I'm only recently comfortable admitting this, but I think I TRUST MARKET MEASURES MORE THAN I TRUST MY SAVAGE hellhorse arbitrage.

[2:30:47] slaughtered a horde of conformants this morning. Did the whole terrifying row of severed heads on pikes as a warning thing, but you never know with those thing, but you never know with those idiots. Okay, thanks for the heads up.

[2:31:06] >> Normally, I hate puns, but that one was okay.

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[2:32:03] >> Yes. I bet you can't guess how many hours a week I work. >> 61. >> Oh god. >> So close. >> Oh, my day is starting out great. Want

[2:32:16] to go double or nothing? >> Let's see. What color are jeans? Blue. >> Color of jeans. They write songs about it. [laughter] >> Double. I win double. >> Great job.

[2:32:31] >> I'll pay you in love. [laughter] >> That's not how this one works. >> I will pay you in hugs and kisses. >> Uh there is no hug and kiss worth a million. Cool. >> I can make it worth 2 million.

[2:32:46] >> I've I've kissed you before and it's not that good. Woo. This is what I love. it right back to you. >> What do you mean I don't kiss good? >> What do you mean I don't kiss good? >> You're awful. You're very mouthy. Man,

[2:32:59] this feels good. Oh, this is why I do it. All right, come on. Let's keep the matter? >> I just I didn't know I was mouthy. >> You think it would be good, but it's not. You should practice more.

[2:33:11] >> Okay. Try to make a little money back. >> Okay. You want to go big? I'll get it on game. >> 5 mil >> $5 million. >> $5 million and a speedboat.

[2:33:27] >> Uh-huh. >> This is serious. Yes. I take the bet. >> Oh, boy. Here we go. >> I bet I know the name of your childhood [laughter] >> Nobody knows the name.

[2:33:39] >> Oh, really? >> Oh, Lenny Caneler. >> Oh, Lenny Caneler. >> Bam. [bell]

[2:33:55] Tasty Live. Join us on the YouTube channel if you haven't already. We're your trade ideas, questions along the righth hand side chat. E- minis are up about 50. NASDAQ's up 450, but who cares about that? We've got very special

[2:34:08] guest, a very the most special guest in the room. Let me bring him in real quick the room. Let me bring him in real quick with the [laughter]

[2:34:20] here. >> You're a legend. Great to see you, What's going on? New faces, right? All right. I like it. Yeah. What's going on? >> Hanging in there. Just chilling. >> Yeah. Talking about man, we talk about

[2:34:35] about uh post 4th of July. We heard the smoke. We were both in Wisconsin. We not in the city. >> I'm in Ind. I was in Indiana. My kids are in Indiana and they take their fireworks very seriously. Yeah.

[2:34:47] >> And I'm not even talking about like the regular fireworks fireworks show. I'm Yeah. >> It was a three-day event there. >> It's a little bit tiresome after like the third hour of like, you know,

[2:34:59] quarter sticks of dynamite. >> Yeah. Like your windows are rattling. before. It's just [laughter] It was It was intense by me. Even with like the >> Speaking of fireworks, red, white, and blue. USA plays the night. You ready?

[2:35:13] You've been watching. >> Yeah, I've been watching. I watched um Cabo. What's the name of >> St. Lucas? No, I don't know. [laughter] >> I watched Cabo. You know what? Cabo Verde Cabo Verde game. It was a Cabo and

[2:35:26] >> right? >> Why do we call it Cabo St. Lucas, but we Cape St. Lucas? I don't whatever. >> Yeah. 550,000 people. That was one of the most amazing games I saw. I saw uh Norway yesterday. They were awesome.

[2:35:41] big on the defense part, right? It's like, you know, like here, no one likes to buy, you know, long verticals, right? Debit spreads. [laughter] They're just not big. They don't seem like they're really into the into uh the defense. But

[2:35:55] plays soccer, so >> I got to kind of act like I know what >> I mean, some of these matches have been just insane. Like going to extra minutes and multiple scores. It's just like with a 15-second window, you're like, "This

[2:36:09] happening right now? >> Well, every like major star like Holland and you know obviously Messi and and they're all like performing at their the levels you would kind of expect them to like you know and plus they added extra

[2:36:24] teams and they were they were like I heard commentators talking about you know cop Cape Verde or whatever going well you know I don't really want to see a team like that there. added too many teams in and then

[2:36:36] look what happens, right? But I think it's been a huge success here. They said that the first US game, the one that got to go to the round of the one that got to go to the round of 16, got 24 million viewers and up to

[2:36:51] like 33. They think it's going to which is like an NBA Finals game. >> But they said this number tonight going to be in the upper 30s, they think. forbid they would have had it in Chicago, right? Yeah.

[2:37:04] >> Well, that No, I heard there was like I heard there was from what I understand Field. >> Look it up. I'm telling you, I didn't >> I know they have to have them all enclosed, right?

[2:37:17] >> That's what I said. I thought that that >> I didn't believe it. I thought she was That was part of the thing. And I think it was supposed to be it was going to be that's why Rom turned it down. I don't know for sure, but I'm telling you, look

[2:37:30] >> they had they probably had a combo. getting rid of our our Chicago Bears Indiana. We don't have >> Maybe they could do it in Hammond for the next if there ever is another one.

[2:37:42] >> But yeah, I really like, >> you know, not that I'm watching, you every Saturday, but I'll throw a game on every now and again and just trying to understand it. But it's just what they're what they do with the soccer

[2:37:56] ball is I I still can't quite get my head around. That is funny because like who barely knew what was going on. Now they're looking at every game. Hey, >> And nobody actually knows what offides is. [laughter]

[2:38:08] It's really it's it's the most objective call on earth. But yeah, I've loved every second of it. You know, it's been I think this is I think this team I love >> What what what's up on the >> I love the Americans tonight against

[2:38:23] Belgium. I love >> I think he said 2, I said 3 0. I think >> I think it'll be a lot. >> I'm gonna go >> I'm gonna go 3-1 US. I think that Belgium's defense

[2:38:36] expert. [laughter] Well, their defense with their back end looks weak, but they give up a lot of goals and you know, evidently their three main guys that are football, they're all, you know, it's just what I hear, they're all old now.

[2:38:51] >> but they do give up a lot of goals. Belgium and they they should have and he I saw the Sudan game. They should have never really won that game if you think >> Belgium Sudan game. I think he's got a little more intel than we do.

[2:39:04] attention up in this mode. Right. All right. >> I'm not shooting from the hip, you know. But yeah, it's >> Yep. I am cool. >> Uh yeah. What's going on desk today? Uh

[2:39:16] what's some >> today's been Thursday was a lot of assignments. A lot. And I think that you guys are going to do a show, if you can help us out there, that's going to explain why there's no defined risk on

[2:39:30] expiration day, right? Because I think that's the one thing our clients don't get. A lot of them do, but they assume that because they have a protected put on that nothing can happen when, you know, they could be assigned till

[2:39:44] Right. >> So, it was there was a lot of assignments on Thursday. Today's been busy. Mondays are becoming busy. Mondays are becoming as busy at the desk as Fridays are. But

[2:39:57] as busy at the desk as Fridays are. But now with this cobrows, which is as much a lifesaver, I think as order chains were when it first came out, because you remember order chains when it came out. But it's been a nice smooth

[2:40:10] flow. Mondays are super busy. Fridays are, as we all know, are >> Yeah. >> Yeah. the defined risk stuff if you're holding it to zero days or you're doing zero day stuff if you're not trading a

[2:40:23] cash set index that's a that's one thing you should know like S&P not as as bad as you know correct or whatever where you you can have your long option expire >> right but it's it's can be confusing if if clients are getting closed out or you

[2:40:38] down at the end of the day because they kind of don't understand well it's you know $5 out of the money and I have a protected put which I get the frustration of But you're never safe because anything can happen from 3:00 to

[2:40:51] >> Yeah, 100%. So, what do we got for the top 20 symbols today? >> Okay. All right. Here we go. Going from 20 All right. Here we go. Going from 20 down, we got uh Meta at an 88. 19 SLV at

[2:41:05] down, we got uh Meta at an 88. 19 SLV at a 30, 18 MSTR at 75, a 30, 18 MSTR at 75, 17 GLD at a 34, Amazon coming in at 16 17 GLD at a 34, Amazon coming in at 16 at 58, L at 94. Nice. At 15, I ran at a

[2:41:19] at 58, L at 94. Nice. At 15, I ran at a 66 at number 14. Intel number 13 at 98. Sophie or Sofi, whichever you prefer, 41. 11, AVGO at a 43. Top 10. PLTR at a

[2:41:34] 67. Scan disk at nine at 108. >> That too. >> Yeah, I like that one. Uh, at number eight at 101. Apple is at seven at a 65.

[2:41:50] Apple is at seven at a 65. Number six, TQQ at 67%. Top five, AMD at 112. Nvidia at a 36. Number three, MU at an

[2:42:02] 89. SpaceX, we were just discussing that, at a 57. And his other sub >> Yeah, right. >> can't do it. >> Yeah, lots of uh near or over 100% IV

[2:42:18] >> Yeah. >> But uh yeah, SpaceX and Tesla >> BE today is up like $30 today, too. You see that? >> Yeah, we've been trading. We've been trading it all. I've been thinking that

[2:42:32] that Tesla was just going to sell off aggressively after SpaceX IPOed, but I stand corrected. It is lower. >> Yeah. where it was, but >> very difficult to fade him. It's just it I don't know. I don't know what to say,

[2:42:45] but >> yeah. So, love it, guys. Awesome. You >> Thanks, man. I mean, we try to do what we can and uh it's a great market, honestly. I mean, you got a lot of different names moving around. I I do I

[2:43:00] be that rotation out of those four-letter names, those tech names into some of these um area other areas, but you're seeing it. I mean, if you look at a heat map today, you'll see the changes in in healthcare right now and consumer

[2:43:14] think that's a rotation we're going to see for the rest of the quarter. right? [laughter] You know what I mean? >> Yeah. One tweet. It's literally I see the market move, I'm like, who tweeted, >> right? Exactly. We get our information

[2:43:28] >> Well, thanks Marty. Appreciate >> it, gentlemen. You guys are doing >> Thank you. Appreciate it. We'll uh we'll see if USA can get it done. USA 31 a quick 90 second break. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[2:47:25] Tasty Live. Join us on the YouTube channel. We're streaming live there. questions along the righthand side chat. E- minis are up about 50. NASDAQ up 460. You got some singleame stocks ripping around with uh AVGO up 16. You've got

[2:47:41] Intel up six, Iron up five, Microsoft down six, uh Tesla up 12, Tesla and down six, uh Tesla up 12, Tesla and SpaceX being the two on the top 20. Uh Marty just showed us is kind of interesting. But we do have a very

[2:47:57] special guest in the room with us, Mr. Kevin David. How you doing? special guest stuff. Love it. Never gets old. >> You are. Thank you for that. [applause] Give us a little applause. Thank you.

[2:48:10] How come every time you're here now? I feel like every [applause] time I'm going to have to talk to uh my superiors on that one to see if we can get on here more frequently. But really what what I was thinking listening to the the

[2:48:24] was thinking listening to the the segment before and seeing that top 20 is how many of those names are either directly in the case a TQ or or somewhat indirectly but pretty

[2:48:38] closely the SXL the triple levered uh semiis related to the NASDAQ 100. Then you got names like the ones you just mentioned, SpaceX and Tesla, Micron, Intel, AMD. Those are the names that really dominated the narrative in Q2.

[2:48:55] really dominated the narrative in Q2. Um, and I think have pushed some index V dynamics to interesting levels. And I'm using that word intentionally that we'll get to, but but really, I mean, I I I don't think it's me. I think it's a

[2:49:10] compelling market. I think it's you. >> When we did the the SIBO floor stuff, we were down like 80 points every day. 100 has to be, right? >> Wild. I know, right? Just about every

[2:49:23] >> But no, it's been crazy. >> It has been crazy. And and it's been a rotation sometimes. At least I noticed it on Friday. A lot of the semis got sold off. They went and flew to buying uh healthcare names, buying some

[2:49:35] consumer defensive names. And I think that's a good thing. I think that speaks to the fact that all these people who say it's going to be like 2000 and the dot era and we're going to get this huge. No, I don't think so. I mean that

[2:49:47] would indicate that. Those same people have been saying stuff like that since have been saying stuff like that since then. And I'm I'm not trying to minimize

[2:49:59] then. And I'm I'm not trying to minimize the potential for real pullbacks, >> but things are so different and the names that make up all these major names that make up all these major indices, S&Ps and and the NASDAQ 100 are

[2:50:12] making money. You were just talking about the the cash pile at at a company like Microsoft or I heard it earlier this morning. It it is different in so many ways. Now they have had significant moves higher and and markets can

[2:50:27] normalize but what the catalyst for that is I don't think is just going to be cascading risk lower. >> Yeah I I agree. Um it's going to be a busy week for you guys. There's a big uh ADR IPO coming this week. Yeah.

[2:50:41] ADR IPO coming this week. Yeah. >> Yeah. I I am interested. I have followed >> Yeah. I I am interested. I have followed SK Highex and like the Samsung and what's going on in Korea all year. I do think that there is a correlation with

[2:50:55] what we see in the NASDAQ 100 in terms of price and volatility. Uh they are of price and volatility. Uh they are tapping into US equity markets, raising money and making it easier for US investors to access a

[2:51:10] uh a a really sort of unique environment in memory and semis and and I am going to be fascinated to see one the appetite. I mean, we're we're talking appetite. I mean, we're we're talking about a 30 nearly $30 billion raise.

[2:51:25] about a 30 nearly $30 billion raise. >> And granted, SpaceX dwarfed that a speaking, that's bigger than Saudi Aramco, what what used to be the second largest. So, uh, this is the world we're in and and they are a big player and it

[2:51:41] moves with some velocity and we'll see how how that impacts broader markets. Yeah, it's going to be crazy. And it is, it feels like the season of IPOs. Like that's just what it is. >> Back. Yeah. A good thing for NASDAQ

[2:51:54] >> Back. Yeah. A good thing for NASDAQ undoubtedly. Um I saw one of the the headers up there. you were talking about OpenAI um and Anthropic potentially this year should be or or maybe into next year really really meaningful for you

[2:52:11] year really really meaningful for you know being able to tap large cap US know being able to tap large cap US equities in in a a very direct way and we have seen the growth in private markets in in recent years. Um, I think

[2:52:23] this is a healthy thing and and sort of an element of rotation to that too, right? Broader accessibility is a good thing and and that's driven so much of the options growth in recent years. Good. Good stuff.

[2:52:35] believe >> I do. >> I love I love the visuals. I love the slides. >> I like something to talk to and I I do believe that uh visuals can can tell a

[2:52:49] compelling story without me yapping away. This one is just broader. Like you guys know, I care about the continued growth of NDX options and that continues to be the case. This is quarterly volumes going back to 2022. Uh over that

[2:53:05] time window, average daily volumes are up something like four-fold. So we are outpacing even like the the most well-known index products. Um, and

[2:53:17] specific to Apex, the the backend for Tasty, there has been very very meaningful growth both this year and last quarter. So grateful for that. Hopefully it continues. Um, but but really that I do think is a testament to

[2:53:32] interest in the names that are driving the market at a broad level and being able to manage that risk whether it is one day, one week or longer term. I >> Yeah. >> What's that quarter where there was

[2:53:47] basically the 50% jump from like 60 to like 90? I mean, that was that was >> Where where are we looking at there? I think it was 25 to uh >> Well, yeah. Okay. So, you saw

[2:54:00] >> Q3 2025. That was >> Q25 was the only quarter where there was a quarter overtoarter decline over this whatever four-year period. Um you're there >> and then rebounds and and

[2:54:15] [clears throat] really yeah when when that happens we see a significant pickup and it has been driven primarily by retail a lot of shortdated spread trading uh and and we continue to see that this year.

[2:54:31] >> Yeah. Yeah. NDX uh we've been trading it. We actually uh a couple weeks ago we talked about NDX and and potential downside butterfly. >> I was just looking at that right now.

[2:54:44] It's still relatively cheap. Uh the 11day cycle just looking at the expected 11day cycle just looking at the expected move uh around 287 the same 300 point move uh around 287 the same 300 point wide. So 29,287 284 is uh like 1,300

[2:54:58] bucks with a max profit of 28k. So, like if you get a reversal of today's move, this is probably a $500 $600 winner just in the 11day cycle. But the further out in time you go, the cheaper it can get. But I like I like using this as a hedge

[2:55:13] against the overall market because I have so many bullish positions in the single name stocks uh that I think just getting that holistic downside hedge there and if you do get a one day or two day move to the downside, it can be a

[2:55:26] really nice hedge. We were talking the other day about how well I think you explain the use cases and that's a perfect example. I got a whole bunch of bullish exposure elsewhere. What about something to offset that that in dollar

[2:55:41] terms hopefully isn't a real significant loss because generally you probably want the market to go higher. >> But that opportunity to sort of tweak your your exposure using things like a butterfly. Uh I'm I'm friendly to that

[2:55:56] and I love the way you guys explain it. But the the bigger picture point about expected moves speaks to th this next visual and we have seen uh a significant

[2:56:09] divergence between expected moves in the S&Ps and expected moves in the NASDAQ 100. And I think there's a couple of different ways you can illustrate that different ways you can illustrate that visually. This one I'm looking at VXN

[2:56:23] visually. This one I'm looking at VXN divided by VIX. So the ratio we're up to, it's tough to see on that right hand side, but we're up to a 77% side, but we're up to a 77% premium as of end of last week. Now

[2:56:37] comp periods are somewhat interesting. Big somewhat similar move in 2017. Now there you're talking about a very low base year for VIX. But what you also saw

[2:56:51] was a period of significant outperformance on the part of mega cap outperformance on the part of mega cap tech in the middle of 2017 and you're seeing a similar dynamic this year. I don't think the correlary to

[2:57:06] year. I don't think the correlary to early 2007 or going way back to 2002 is relevant in 2026. But the parlay is so much of the move and risk has been

[2:57:21] concentrated in a relatively limited number of names that have outsized more number of names that have outsized more significant exposure in NDX. Um, I

[2:57:33] looked like to put this in more concrete terms at 30-day puts in NDX and the S&Ps. And I looked I was looking at August 7th

[2:57:47] And I looked I was looking at August 7th cycle options and you could go down and cycle options and you could go down and sell an 8 12% out of the money NDX put. Now, this was over the weekend, so uh I was accounting for like the Friday move,

[2:57:59] but it was something like 26,800 somewhere in that neighborhood. Uh [clears throat] and by four to sort of no notionally

[2:58:11] and by four to sort of no notionally adjust for your exposure. S&P puts, same expiration, uh you're going 4.5% out of the money on it written down and I'm not going to

[2:58:24] pull it out of my pocket right now. Um, but net net you would still be taking in 100 points. So just recapping there, I'm going out 8 12% in NDX. I am notionally

[2:58:37] adjusting my exposure in S&P. So I'm selling NDX. I'm buying SPX. I'm selling selling NDX. I'm buying SPX. I'm selling 8.5% out of the money. I am buying 4.5% out of the money. And I am net collecting real premium. Something like

[2:58:51] that is interesting. When you see an unusual V dynamic, what is our risk in unusual V dynamic, what is our risk in this situation? Um, broadly speaking, the risk is a highly correlated sell-off. Something like we saw, you

[2:59:07] know, whether it was tariffs or Iran earlier this year. Um, I also think this have your big boy pants on. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> For a position like that in XND and XSP.

[2:59:23] Now, the caveat there is that you would actually need to trade 2 and 1 half times the XND uh for each XSP, but that is a much more approachable sort of risk dynamic for most retail traders. Long story short,

[2:59:41] volatility at the macro level remains pretty calm because you see software is pulling things down, semis rallying or vice versa. Netn net the index doesn't move a whole lot, but the divergence at the index level is significant and the

[2:59:56] market is is pricing significantly greater volatility in NDX relative to the S&Ps. We'll see if that's warranted in the coming weeks. >> I like it. And yeah, it plays into that perfectly where you have you're selling

[3:00:10] that undefined risk premium in the heightened volatility product and then you're you're inventorying some downside delta to but also give you a nice gamma uh explosion if you do get a big move to the downside because you have

[3:00:23] >> notionally equivalent but multiplication in terms of delta. Correct. You can only that has a lot more volatility and it's hedging you anyways. But those S&P puts can balloon up to 400 deltas. See what I you explaining these concepts [laughter]

[3:00:39] you explaining these concepts [laughter] so well, man. You took like 15 seconds. I'm over here yammering away for 2 and 1/2 minutes. Well done. Um I believe the other visual I have is kind of an extension of that. And it's correlation.

[3:00:55] So what's going on here? the implied correlation in NDX is significantly higher than what we see in the S&P. So again, this is based on option pricing. It is forecastbased using one-mon

[3:01:11] options. How much correlation do we see at the index level relative to the constituents? So net net what that what that's telling you is NDX index file is

[3:01:24] high relative to S&PS when you aggregate or compare that to the constituents. Um similar somewhat similar relationships historically. Again things kind of

[3:01:36] changed in 2017. Then you see a big move higher in late 20 early 2021. A whole lot of risk on in that environment. um back when Nvidia really took off and

[3:01:52] like people were going to bars to watch earnings as opposed to world world cup >> I mean what was that is that 2023 [clears throat]

[3:02:05] took off. Yeah, time flies right. and more recently. So again, thinking dynamically, considering uh related products to manage risk, considering

[3:02:17] offsetting sort of deltas in the single name space with an index, I think makes name space with an index, I think makes sense. And really, I believe that that NDX is in many situations, given that top 20 list that that Marty just went

[3:02:33] top 20 list that that Marty just went through, uh perhaps the best corollary for that balance. Yeah, I think the the heightened correlation only helps you if you're trying to use a product like NDX as a

[3:02:45] hedge because you if something happens you would you are getting a higher happen will happen where you could have a situation where like the S&Ps you because uh energy products are ripping high or something like that.

[3:03:00] >> Good example or financials. >> Exactly. where NASDAQ is much more concentrated, which is is good if you're using it for directional exposure and need to. >> Yep. Yep. Yep. The the last thing I had

[3:03:15] colleagues that whipped this thing up, but it's about the SKH Highix coming to market later this week. I do think that's something that should be on radars. May it's probably not going to get quite the attention that uh SpaceX

[3:03:31] get quite the attention that uh SpaceX or potential future IPOs get, but it is really kind of maybe not the epicenter, but right on the periphery of the names like Micron that have really sort of dominated swings dayto-day and plays

[3:03:47] such a significant role in things like the the SOCL uh TQQQ. So understanding that dynamic and having other names that perhaps you

[3:03:59] could uh either express a view or offset some risk is valuable and again it's a testament to people wanting access to US markets. They function well that this is

[3:04:11] this is great. Happy 250. >> Yeah. I mean this is one of the names though it doesn't trade here. We've been talking about its moves overnight in Korea and it's been one of those that's been participating as part of this rally

[3:04:24] to be game on. It's another >> it's been like the the lead. You see what these things what Samsung what Highex did overnight and it's like all right that explains what I'm seeing pre-market in the US and we continue to

[3:04:37] see this global handoff. I don't think that's changing and and really US think that risk is managed. >> Yeah. Love it. Well, appreciate your >> See you, Kev. >> Good to see you, too. All cleaned up.

[3:04:52] >> He's like, "When are you going to shave my fans?" I'm like, "No, can't do it. I >> You look good, man. >> Yeah. Appreciate your time. I'm going to throw on an uh NDX downside butterfly, especially into this move. I like it

[3:05:05] because we're up 1.5% right now. So, I think it just creates a nice entry point lot of the other bullish positions I have in the portfolio. But we've got all of our trades posted to the follow feed or if we haven't already, we will

[3:05:18] up on the other side of this break to take you for the rest of the day. Uh you're watching Tasty Live. We'll be back in about 90 seconds.

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[3:07:07] going to go crazy. >> Okay. >> It's a cute dress. Where'd you get it? >> Oh, thank you. H&M. >> That's pretty good. >> Probably not worth more than $4. No,

[3:07:19] things. Everything has value. >> Well, not everything has value. >> I am pretty sure I can name a couple of things that don't have value. >> Okay. U caution. >> 5.

[3:07:31] >> That's a sad one. $112. >> I have a toughy for you. All right. >> Me and you? >> Yeah. Did we have a price? >> Yeah. >> Two cents. We [snorts] should have sold

[3:07:44] >> Yeah. We could have made a lot of money on that one. Oops. [laughter] street. >> Exactly. I think that's more on you than

[3:07:56] it is on me. >> Lord knows I'm trying. Hey, you know everywhere. Take you for instance. Look at you. You're a young buck. What are you like 37? >> I'm joking. How old are you?

[3:08:09] >> With your genetic makeup, you know, you're not putting on too much weight. I eggs of yours and make quite a profit online. But I wouldn't wait too long. time, especially if they keep eating the way you're eating.

[3:08:24] >> I got to take off. H, time is money. >> Are you serious? >> Yeah. Hey, look. Can you get the check on this? I left my wallet in the car. I don't like to carry around bulky things. It slows me down.

[3:08:37] It slows me down. [bell]

[3:08:50] Live. Liz, we have an abbreviated session, you and me today. We have some guests on this morning. Always good to see people in the studio. How are you? and shaking my head thinking about your root system and how you're going to

[3:09:03] light your yard on fire, Chris. [laughter] >> Fire uh cleanses, I think. Who is that? Oh, that was Bane and Batman. I don't >> Well, well, okay. And we are going to get into this, but as we're coming in,

[3:09:16] pour some chemical in through its system, then kerosene, then light it on and make sure the kids are a safe distance away. the house, but I don't think I can move the house. But I'm gonna get these.

[3:09:31] now, but we're gonna do it. Yeah, you drill a hole. You pour the chemical in. You light it on fire. Apparently, that's how you destroy it. So, this house? >> What could possibly go wrong [laughter]

[3:09:44] with this method? >> I'm glad that I have friends at the fire department, which I should probably get in touch with those guys in the next you during this whole process. But this is going to be amazing. When is it going

[3:09:56] next weekend. gonna do proof of I'm gonna do proof of life checks on you occasionally after >> If I don't make it to first call next Sunday, we'll know something happened.

[3:10:08] >> Something's gone wrong. What's not going wrong today, Liz, in these markets? Stocks are pointing higher here at the open. Uh, and into the first few hours of trading. NASDAQ's up 1.4%, S&P up uh 0.7% here. Not quite through Friday's

[3:10:22] high, but we're churning. And it's a slow session though. First Monday back >> It No, it doesn't. And I'm going to use a term that was said on this network a long time ago. As foretold by you, it is July where we should just continue the

[3:10:36] >> 12. >> That is our that's our typical market in July at least. We're still in the Santa Claus in July window. Last three days of June, first nine of July typically have produced a gain north of 2.5% on average

[3:10:51] month of the year in the stock market's existence. Choose a time frame past 10, >> This is the first I'm hearing of this. Christmas ends on July 9th. I thought it was the whole month of July. >> Uh, unfortunately, well, July is a very

[3:11:05] that you get, like the leg of the rally is usually the first, uh, >> I got three days. Buckle up. Can't wait. >> Buck, we're we're buckled in still here. that came in today over the course of the morning show. Jamal and Mike

[3:11:17] are here like the good little cleanup crew that we are. they need here. Uh, we have a good first question because I've heard Jamal talk about this quite a little bit here. Um, I've heard I keep hearing the Super Bowl

[3:11:31] never seen how it actually is put together. Can you break the whole thing When would you reach for it? What's the real trade-off you're taking when you put one on? >> Okay, so can I grab this one? Super Bowl

[3:11:44] it's kind of it's bullish bullish, right? So, the Super Bowl is you are going to be selling a put spread to finance a long call spread. So, you're using the credit from the put spread to

[3:11:56] put a bullish long call spread on. Now, the setups are all over the place. I've call spread around the at the monies. That gives you the biggest bang for your one for one immediately as it starts going up and you're paying for that by

[3:12:08] spread. So, I know Mike does his a go a little bit farther out of the money with his with his upwards call spread, bullish. That's why they call it a Super Bowl. And that's it's if you just break

[3:12:22] profile you want. You are buying a bullish call spread and financing it with a sale of a out of the money put spread in the same cycle. And when do I reach for it? when it's a high price

[3:12:34] just go by or I think there's going to be some type of some type of up move room to be wrong to the downside with that put the put spread that you're selling and you do get you get the double effect of if the product goes up

[3:12:48] you can get paid pretty quickly >> and you you can get listen if it goes money on the on the call spread that you purchased and you could face a little depending upon where it goes >> for sure. Now, if it's set up properly,

[3:13:01] my hands here just because like if it's set up properly, if it if if it lands in above your put spread, you don't lose any money. The only way that you're going to lose is if it goes beneath your the the short uh the put spread because

[3:13:15] you're using all that put spread. So, you have no real like say you have a $10 you get from there to buy that call spread. So, the way that you will lose spread. But typically, your put spread is far far enough out of the money that

[3:13:31] don't make any money in that small that small window. because I was I've looked on Google for a bunch of these terms after last week's um you know, July 2nd mistake. Google was telling us that it was a half day

[3:13:45] not true. Why is this why is this misinformation being spread? Uh if you Google Super Bowl, you might get something like a short put spread coupled with an extra even f uh uh further out of the money put spread. Uh

[3:13:58] short put spread. It's the long call spread. You're doing both of those. Google Gemini is not great. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's not, you know, but Super Bowl some of these terms were from the old trading floor, right? So it's

[3:14:13] >> Think about it perspective. And sometimes you'll see Super Bowl where they're bullish bullish where in in old olden terms where they would sell a put spread to buy just one call instead of a call spread but that was more expensive.

[3:14:26] >> Let's go to the next one. >> This is a good question. >> Okay. I get selling premium when IV rank is high, but I'm stuck on the next step. If IV rank is high and skew is steep at the same time, does that push me toward

[3:14:40] a strangle, a condor, or a ratio? How do you turn what the V surface is saying into the structure you actually put on? >> So a high IV is obviously going to tell expensive. The steep skew is going to tell you where they're expensive, Liz.

[3:14:56] on here. If there's no skew in a market and volatility is high, I can do strangle or a short iron condor because I'm being paid on both ends. But if I aggressive skew to one side or the other, I'm I don't want to treat both

[3:15:10] legs equally here. So that does push me towards different structures like put spreads. It even could be appropriate for something like a jade lizard if you market. Um so I I I think generally Ivy rank tells me what I should care about.

[3:15:24] The skew tells me the structure and at the end of the day you need to have both the appropriate strategy. Doing something like a short call spread in a stock like Micron in recent months um you know you'd have been killed on the

[3:15:37] short call spread side if you were doing those equidistant apart. So, you would have to go even further and further out like your short put spread may be $100 short call spread strike like that's going to be $300 away.

[3:15:51] >> It it it the volatility does tell you kind of what what strategies you should pretty well. The SKS are different though. You got to keep an eye on them. both directions. you have call skew in a lot of things and but traditionally it's

[3:16:05] spy or you open up something it's a general market ETF it usually has that >> right and historic I mean like that makes sense people own the stock and they're using the options as downside protection so there should be put skew

[3:16:18] theory academic way of looking at it we only have a few minutes left here Liz uh so we're going to keep this going VIX says the market or we can go to the next question here um VIX says the market expects calm

[3:16:32] that. When implied and realized all disagree, which one should drive my strike selection? And how do you read that gap? Great question. >> So the VIX, let me let me just do this again. So the question is, if the VIX is

[3:16:45] staying calm, but the moves feel bigger than that. I I don't think the VIX is staying calm. I think uh a calm VIX is in when it's a little bit lower than this. I I was talking today with the boys about if it if the VIX dipped into

[3:16:58] be a little bit calm. Right now we're at a flat 16. So 16 is 1617 is where and and I believe it was Julia who has done research and and did did something on this. That's the time where it could go either way. So when you have a VIX of

[3:17:13] upside or big moves to the to the downside. I don't know that this is one where it's saying the VIX is expected calm and especially given the nature of how everything is trading right now where the VIX is going to keep its wings

[3:17:27] up a little bit because there are so many buyers out there of of things. Keep in mind the VIX it's kind of which comes first the chicken or the egg. When you have more buyers than sellers the volatility has to stay high because you

[3:17:39] it there are more buyers than sellers of an option which will keep the implied volatility higher. and VIX is based off the S&P 500 options. gap between implied and realized V, obviously that's something that we only

[3:17:53] know in hindsight. But if we're thinking about this on a short-term basis, if I you know, if I over the past 5 days, realized V came in higher than implied V, then that's probably not a great environment to be selling premium. And

[3:18:06] if I go look out and I say, oh, you know what, IV's been here, but realized V has what's been what have been the conditions or the characteristics of this market? Are they still in place? Yes. Okay, maybe I should roll the dice

[3:18:18] and look at selling some premium here. So, I mean, I pay attention to that gap to look at behavior to understand are are is the market actually fulfilling traders taking a different path every single day. And if they are taking a

[3:18:31] shouldn't be necessarily leaning into that short premium trade. That's I mean things from a different angle than I do because the VIX is just the S&P V and that's so the S&P is the overall market but I might look at something like we

[3:18:45] were talking about Microsoft today. It has 107 IV rank which means it's high could sell premium in. So the VIX is just the general market. It's the S&P 500 volatility. >> Uh we have one more question here Liz

[3:18:58] don't you take this last one and I'll close this out. >> Okay. I set up my trades at zero delta since I don't have a strong direction. [clears throat] long or short whether I like it or not. If I keep resetting to

[3:19:12] neutral, aren't I just buying buying high and selling low every time? What's me? >> Yeah. I mean, if you reset too situation where you're buying high and and uh selling low. And that can be the

[3:19:27] trades, Liz. But I mean that doesn't mean that delta neutral is ultimately you're trying to do with it. Um it's I I they're like oh I've eliminated risk. It's it's not magic. That's not how this

[3:19:40] works. Um it's basically a way of saying I'm choosing the risk that I want and I don't want this trade to be directional. If we have any direction then it's deviating from what I'm looking for here. Time decay, skew, relative value,

[3:19:54] etc. So, I mean, I I I think the distinction is if you hedge every tiny churn machine, >> which is why I've noticed for myself, overreact to stuff. And realistically, the longer that I hold on to a trade,

[3:20:08] the more that my macro brain ideas >> and thematic ideas about what those can actually play out a little bit over time. So, um, yeah, should be, should I always reset here? has the delta gotten large enough in my

[3:20:23] neutral position that uh it's now a directional trade. It's becoming a >> So, I mean, by by the nature of it, to this to this person's point, the second chance, not by choice, right? You started delta neutral, but the market

[3:20:37] you've got 45 days, you can't expect some movement. It's interesting when you're resetting, that means you're just taking the whole thing and moving it. We at Tasty for the longest time said you're going to um move your unt move

[3:20:50] your untested side. So hypothetically speaking, if you sell a neutral strangle bullish side. So you're not you're holding on to the losing side if you're moving your untested side up. So that's

[3:21:03] neutral. I don't I don't kneejerk and make it neutral every time to make them both. I don't move them both every time. My next move is then out in time. So that also can restructure it without actually changing the buying at the

[3:21:17] highs and selling at the lows every single time. So my first move is you you manage your untested side and then next is take the whole thing up and out in time as time passes. So I'm not aggressively micromanaging neutral delta

[3:21:30] just doesn't make much sense to trade There were some a few years ago I remember trading oil uh aggressively neutral for I don't know I think over the course of 10 months it was just

[3:21:43] short iron condor >> and and uh you know when the market's >> and and uh you know when the market's giving you that same setup if you're not just got to keep putting on and if it does give you the swing in delta maybe

[3:21:59] was doing those trades a lot of them were beyond the 45 and 21 out cycle so I go to like 60 or And if by the time I got to 45, I had take it off. >> I don't need to wait to 21. Right.

[3:22:14] out. But when I go a little bit longer on those things and that way I can have this position behaving the way that it get closer to the like as we roll off the decay curve in that particular

[3:22:26] trade. But Liz, uh, we need a run. You have some very important meetings. I last call this Friday. We're going to keep that in the hopper though. People here would love to know what's coming for Last Call on Friday, but until then,

[3:22:38] be back in two minutes. Gus and Errol are up here next. Liz, always good seeing you. >> Good to see you, too. See you tomorrow.

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[3:25:46] back to Risk and Reward. It is a lovely Monday. It's a new week in the market. Errol joins us in his lovely jacket from the SIBO floor. Errol, how you feeling? there like? >> Uh the vibe is pretty chill right now. I

[3:26:01] morning. A little bit more orders going through. It was a little bit louder. And soccer games from this weekend. So, I think everybody was just getting up to Fourth of July weekend, all the hot dogs that were ate, all the soccer games that

[3:26:14] that are going through this morning. So, uh that's how we're feeling so far. But know today's Monday. I know it was a Fourth of July weekend. Before we get weekend? Did you see all the fog? >> Uh yeah, I did. I did see all the fog.

[3:26:28] We were Yeah, I mean I was up uh at at Chase's apartment on the 28th floor of fireworks and it was really cool for like 15 minutes. I mean, as far as you can see, the whole horizon is fireworks. It's pretty amazing site. But yeah, then

[3:26:41] initially we thought it was just maybe some crappy weather taking down the see 5 ft in front of us. It was Yeah, that was that was insane to to be able to for humans to be able to create, you know, that that sort of thing in a small

[3:26:54] surprised to hear excitement about the World Cup games going on there. Errol Wednesday when we were last both at the SE boat together uh that was when England was playing Congo and Congo took a 10 lead while we were there and there

[3:27:09] following that. >> I thought the market dropped for a >> Yeah. Yeah. I thought it was a rally or they were trying to get an order filled about a goal in a soccer game. So, they do they they [laughter] like to have fun

[3:27:21] it's it's the World Cup. Everybody in the world must watch. Um, yeah. But get your predictions as well. Jamal said US 2. Mike said US 3 0. I believe Marty

[3:27:35] said US 31. What's Gus's predictions for tonight? >> I I would be inclined to align with Jamal. It feels low scoring to me. Um, I think it's I think it's 200 US or maybe 1-1. I think that there was two goals in

[3:27:49] this game in regulation is is sort of my my overarching prediction. How exactly those two goals will fall, I'm not sure. I would be shocked if the US gets shut if Belgium gets shut out. So, yeah, feels feels tight. Feels like a one-1

[3:28:04] sort of sort of game to me and maybe we we play some extra time or or go to a >> I like that. I like that. A lot of soccer volatility, a lot of market this morning, too, Gus. What's been on your mind so far?

[3:28:17] mind, too. If we're just one one last thing on the weekend, Joey Chestnut, goat in all of sports, once again wins the hot dog competition. 66 hot dogs. platform here. We can uh we can take a look around at some things. Um yeah, I

[3:28:33] mean, heaviest on my mind today are my two positions that are 11DTE. I still have these SLV longs on and I also have this AT&T long that I put on last week. Yeah, last week. Seven days ago. So, um a week ago AT&T like seller AT&T. Yes,

[3:28:48] AT&T. Um, AT&T. I don't know. Both of these are dicey. I guess I think AT&T is just slightly diceier. Uh, I need AT&T over 22 and a half. Was expecting a it was going to find a bottom at 20. It

[3:29:02] it has shown some some strong resistance in this mid20 range and uh looks to, you know, be at least consolidating perhaps to make a move towards the highs. But I my time horizon on a slowmoving stock like this. I was expecting a a quick

[3:29:15] closer to the 21 level by the start of this week. That has not come to fruition. We've actually eaked slightly lower. So we'll be monitoring that one closely. I don't think I'm going to hold this. I don't know. I have to see at

[3:29:27] least 21 by the end of the week to consider holding this if not more like 2150. So close eyes on that. And also silver. Uh this one I should have taken this off when I had the chance for literally a month to do so but I didn't.

[3:29:41] So here we are uh staring down the barrel of this 56 and a2 57 and a2 bullish put spread on SLV. I do have two of these. So could scale out or take to. As you can see we are pretty close to uned on this position as a whole just

[3:29:54] because we spent so much time in the green. As you can see I need over 57 and a half. So up until I mean yeah last week week before uh we were looking as high as like 65 since I've had this position. I thought we were in the

[3:30:08] but silver, we're looking to make a run back to my levels, so we might be saved feel a little bit better about about silver than I do about AT&T as far as >> Um, yeah. No, there's definitely been a little bit more range into some of these

[3:30:23] recognize some of these metals were recovering just a little bit. They've under the radar there. >> Yeah. Yeah, that they have uh gold obviously moving up just slightly alongside silver here, but yeah, a

[3:30:35] through. just just quietly and I mean a very wiki recovery on this too. It's with the bears just keep pushing it down. So hoping the hoping the bulls can down. So hoping the hoping the bulls can win this week at at least we will see.

[3:30:49] >> Um trend continues. It seems it's heading the right direction at least. >> Yes, exactly. Just got to got to pray for continuation. Now bottom left, top right, people. Bottom left, top right. Let's do that.

[3:31:01] >> Uh yeah, DLR this uh this real estate position I put on last week. Um doing well on [clears throat] the day. still down uh pretty aggressively since I've looking for a quick recovery here. This is another one where I was just kind of

[3:31:13] like two days too early. I I got in at the bottom of this gap here, looking for a gap fill. Then we took two more big red days to where now I feel like the bottom is in. So again, another one that I might just be a week too short on my

[3:31:26] how things pan out. I mean, it's possible we get a decisive bounce back up to 180 and I can feel like we're back on the dance floor, but 18 days for this to get back over 190. Obviously, not a a super fast moving asset. So, yeah, just

[3:31:39] just another one. I the pendulum is swinging here. I I did all this I kept putting time horizons that were like 60 days too long on my positions and we swung all the way back to where I got too aggressive with with a few here.

[3:31:52] So, need to need to find a nice point of stability in the middle uh on on the pendulum of of how I'm choosing my time horizons on these positions. >> Maybe maybe we get some type of uh unprecedented news that comes out

[3:32:04] be nice. But yeah, we'll see how it plays out. some sectorwide news could come through or or some kind of macro numbers or inventories. I don't know. I need need something to

[3:32:18] >> A new hot dog record. Anything. Yeah, one one of these things can move the one one of these things can move the market. It's just a matter of which. Um, attention to this one today. Corn, perhaps the best, most well-timed

[3:32:32] position I have in my account right now is this joke position that I threw on on corn uh 18 days, so about 3 weeks ago now. Um, but yeah, you guys may recall I was joking around about funny ticker names. I discovered that my favorite

[3:32:46] ticker cow is no longer in existence, which used to be a livestock ETF, but corn, an agriculture ETF, is still here. I took one look at this corn chart and after 2 seconds, we were down in this sub7 range. I said, "These are the

[3:32:59] lows." And so, without any further TA, I jumped right into corn and look at corn. Look at corn just steaming right back. Big old gap up up to the 1750 level. So, we are well on the dance floor with with this position on corn. Not a fast mover

[3:33:13] confident that this holds at least a little longer, but I'm not going to make the same mistake that I did with silver. I I've been complaining about how I had and didn't take it. Not going to do the same thing with corn. Uh we're going to

[3:33:26] then we will reevaluate from there. I might just go ahead and take it off at that time to to avoid >> getting getting burnt. And you know, you know how much I love to squeeze the last few drops out of anything where where

[3:33:38] corn for the corn farmers. >> I No, I hear you completely. I'm curious to see what went on this weekend with agriculture that's causing corn to gap upside. That's really nice. I can't say I've ever traded corn myself. Uh but it

[3:33:53] seems to be like a a product that has enough volatility to it and then see have some long delta in. So shout out to the farmers like the point that you >> Yeah. It's it's very rare I trade any of these a livestock type products. It's

[3:34:06] >> you got to give them some love. I love it. You do. Yeah. It's like I always say with oil, it's like this whole other thing to keep up with that I just really to pay attention to closely enough to feel comfortable trading it. But like

[3:34:19] with oil, I do feel that there's a time and a place. And I think that any old trader such as myself could take a look at this chart and say, "Wow, corn hasn't been below 16 >> ever. Not really ever, but since 2020 is

[3:34:31] lows." So, >> uh, yeah, it's been forever. >> Yeah, it's been forever. And it's basically [laughter] the exact same thesis that I use to trade forex, which I don't think is necessarily advisable,

[3:34:43] but I just I just look for any Forex pair that's at a 5-year low. And I to things. And it's worked out pretty well for me so far. So applying that same uh sort of sort of brain dead, arguably uh not the smartest principle

[3:34:57] for me again. So if this is a bad behavior, I'm validated on it time and bad behavior. >> I love it. All you got to do is manage the risk. I mean, you know, a trade is a trade, especially when we've been put to

[3:35:10] trade there. Uh, morning ranch, morning, big deal. Morning, Grumpy Mike. Uh, what you guys been paying attention to? What trades are you guys managing? I know we morning. Uh, rallying to the upside now, volatility collapsing down a little bit

[3:35:23] are looking at uh at the beginning of this week and we can touch on some of >> Yeah. >> What else you got over there uh Gus? pull up that chat myself. Arrol has the chat today, guys. Arrol's man in the

[3:35:36] doesn't get answered, tweet mean things at Arrol. [laughter] All right. Um, yeah, beyond beyond those two, uh, it's really not a whole lot. SanDisk just continuing to hurt me. I don't we're working back today. I

[3:35:51] logging a green day today. It doesn't look like we're going to continue this bearish momentum. Um, but I need the return to over 2,00 expeditiously on on SanDisk with with an ever encroaching time frame here. Uh, I have 18 days left

[3:36:06] of times, it would be hilarious if I just am this the the rug on SanDisk. If I just if I try to short it three times, I lose every time. And then the second I decide I'm finally going to get long, it goes right back down. Uh, perhaps I am

[3:36:20] just the inverse SanDisk ETF. You guys should fade whatever I do. Um, I don't feel like a return to 2000 is out of the out of the equation at all in the next what these memory stocks are capable of. This thing could open up 10% up tomorrow

[3:36:33] I need to be. Uh, so we'll give this one a lot more runway than I typically would for a loser, particularly a loser that is north of 10% out of the money. Uh, because 10% on SanDisk is like 2% on on a normal on a normal, you know, slower

[3:36:48] moving company. IVR of 110 right now, by the way. Um, so yeah, keeping keeping a >> Yeah, 100%. I know. I was I was taking a look at SanDisk as well. I know Micron was trying to pull back a little bit here. I I get you completely on the COD

[3:37:03] timing, the Call of Duty timing. It's like I long this or I shorted this three position and is this going to be the time we finally pull back. I'm feeling there, Gus. I was looking at Micron today thinking about getting on a little

[3:37:15] bit of long delta. I haven't done it yet, but I'm debating on it. I don't at the same time, I don't want to be the one to call the top of this move either. So, considering some long delta in there uh and hopefully get another rally uh

[3:37:28] just a little bit of a pop, not even necessarily make a new high, but I'm in the same boat there. Maybe get a little long delta on a micron. Uh it's cousin. >> Yeah, I I think the argument could be made that it's not even really catching

[3:37:41] a falling knife anymore. I mean, it's, you know, the the knife was falling all signs that that things might be stabilizing, the first signs of a bounce today. So, I think that there is a way that you could gaslight yourself into

[3:37:53] this not being catching catching a falling knife. Uh, just because we are for sure. >> No, 100%. Uh, I hope we don't put in a this long delta on, but I just feel like I get the long delta on, we might slip a

[3:38:08] little bit, but we we'll stay patient on it. We'll stay patient. said, "I missed." Did VC talk more about his roots? You got any idea about Veio and his roots? >> His roots. Yes. His uh he has a gopher

[3:38:21] in his backyard is what I've is what I've gathered. His backyard is destroyed. I don't know if the gopher thing is the joke or not, but that's that's the intel that I have is he needs a lawn guy. His backyard is is a dicey

[3:38:34] situation. He sent a picture of it internally today and I can confirm there are some root issues happening, but he will be back later. you can you can inquire with him then uh for more specifics. Um interesting that we have

[3:38:46] thousand for Micron as well. I wonder if there was some psychological elements happening with that. Obviously SanDisk just at 1,800 but is Micron 1k a significant enough amount to prop up the entire industry at that number? Maybe

[3:39:00] because nothing that happens with these memory stocks makes sense later on today is a short interest on something like Micron and SanDisk. I can continue to go up and be a little bit more attractive as Micron and SanDisk

[3:39:15] of curious on some of those data points. Uh maybe we could circle back around to those, consider some of those as well. But, uh I think SanDisk and Micron, I run, right? I mean, whenever the top does get put in, I think it's safe to

[3:39:27] say both of these stocks were extremely overvalued. Uh kind of similar to how in something like silver and gold are running. So, whenever we get that kind of crack in momentum, um I think it'll have a little bit more

[3:39:41] stay patient to see that these two will never you. I think going to silver and and the metals is is probably a better know, the the Ford PE ratios on these companies aren't that insane. Like,

[3:39:56] stocks, they're not like north of a hundred right now. Um, obviously gold and silver do not have PE ratios, but [laughter] you know, it's it's a it's a market assigned price, but it does feel similar more similar to that rally than

[3:40:09] like I was afraid you were going to say Palunteer or or or GameStop or some kind more substantiated than the runs that we saw in those companies where you get to these Ford PE ratios. You're talking about four, five, 600, over a,000 in the

[3:40:22] case of GameStop. uh this this is more fundamentally backed than those but at the same time probably is a little too much too soon. Um so yeah not surprised with the breathing period that we're seeing here. Uh but I mean it's the same

[3:40:36] doesn't look like >> Avisist run a car. This doesn't look >> GameStop and heck it really doesn't even look like silver and gold on the way up. just look like a strong growth pattern. You would just expect this chart that

[3:40:50] we're looking at right now to be like a 10year chart. not six months or whatever pretty much exactly six months, five months. Um, you just you don't expect it but this is healthy. I mean, the pullbacks are happening. We're seeing

[3:41:05] another one right now. I'm hoping for a bounce and a return to higher highs, but completely unsustainable thing. Like, I'm not expecting, you know, like with going to like have this price by the

[3:41:18] fair price. I don't feel like that here. I don't feel like we see Micron return to to 500. I I think it's probably a little bit higher than that is is fair settling. >> No, that's absolutely fair. Uh curious

[3:41:32] >> for sure. >> Last thing I wanted to talk about here. >> I know I had one more, but it's escaping me now.

[3:41:44] let's talk about Bitcoin, which is which I know is catching a bid today. >> It's recovering a little bit. Yeah, I was hoping to see maybe Bitcoin and and the rest of crypto slide to 55,000, maybe 50,000. That would have been an

[3:41:57] 50,000. Anything below there, that that's a buy with my eyes closed, but it's looking like we're rebounding at around 58,000, 59,000. I forget where point, catching a bid today. >> Yeah, we're up testing the 63 level now,

[3:42:10] >> Yeah, we're up testing the 63 level now, actually at 627. Um we have uh taken a a decisive bounce off uh yeah that 59 level is really the lowest we ever we ever stabilized and then yeah looking to looking to make a run back to the mid60s

[3:42:23] now. So we'll see what happens with that. Um micro strategy still hurting but catching that bounce along with Bitcoin here. Also just as a note for the viewers at home if it looks like I have lost all my ability to type today

[3:42:35] it's because this microphone perfectly blocks the keyboard and also this is a non-native keyboard to me. It's got a smaller shift key in all this. So anyway, if you see me having to really hunt and peck, that's why. But yeah,

[3:42:47] higher along along with Bitcoin as well. Uh back up over a hundred now. So I triple digits. I suppose we don't have to uh we can call off the wellness check >> I was just I was going to and I I was also going to say I know MSTR loves it

[3:43:03] call up the wellness check with some of these board members on MSTR and whoever made the decision to uh pretty much piggyback on top of the Bitcoin move for MSTR. So, they're having a little bit better of a day um today than they have

[3:43:17] to see if we catch a bit. I'm pretty surprised to see MSTR slide down uh all rebounding from, I will say. So, maybe this is going to be the bottom. Maybe

[3:43:29] >> Yeah. interesting uh kind of case study as well in that you know we I we often myself included talk about Micro Strategy as a you know leveraged Bitcoin Strategy as a you know leveraged Bitcoin vehicle and I mean while that's true

[3:43:42] it's like it might not be as much leverage as we would traditionally think because we've seen Micro Strategy fall from uh pretty much perfectly 200 to 100 to keep these in simple terms 197 is more accurate but uh if we pop over to

[3:43:55] more accurate but uh if we pop over to Bitcoin we're talking about a fall from uh that would be something like 80 to 60. We'll keep those numbers the same as well. So a 25% drop in Bitcoin corresponds and again very rough math

[3:44:08] here to a 50% drop in Micro Strategy. So it's essentially 2:1 leverage which is considerable but leverage Bitcoin ETFs exist if you just want to get 2:1 leverage on Bitcoin. I feel people often discuss Micro Strategy as though it's

[3:44:22] this massive leverage vehicle. you're going to get 5x what you get for Bitcoin. And that just hasn't really proven to be the case so far. It's much mind as you're as you're picking your your crypto trading vehicles. Uh it's

[3:44:35] not it's not a 5x leverage Bitcoin ETF. It's it's basically a 2x lever Bitcoin >> Yeah. No, that's fair. I can imagine a lot more going to be getting involved in recovering a little bit. So, always nice to keep back in mind.

[3:44:49] micro strategy this morning. I [laughter] am I am done with that company. I'm fine losing the money. I just stupid. Rivian is the other thing I when it was escaping me. Um I know we got short Rivian on Thursday on air. Uh

[3:45:05] it continues to hold this level. We have not really uh we just barely have eclipsed the highs by like literally a single cent that we put in on Thursday. I'm not alarmed yet. And I I will I will be alarmed. I don't know over 20. If if

[3:45:21] start to feel a little bit dicey about this, but I still just stand by my convictions that I I know the way that that Rivian loves to channel. Um I do have the calls as a as a backup here as well, which is part of why I feel so

[3:45:34] comfortable putting on this this aggressively short Rivian position, but 18 days is an eternity for for a stock like Rivian. the way that this thing moves, we we could we could feasibly move to 22 by like Wednesday or Thursday

[3:45:49] that bad about this. When when when Rivian comes down, it comes down hard. It has shown no ability whatsoever to really hold these 20 plus levels for any see like we had this in uh what is this December of last year, we had this big

[3:46:05] run up to to 23. We test 23 and then you fast forward two weeks and wham, we're right back at 1358. So, uh, is this is more like a month to be fair, but we're right back at 1358. So, it has just never ever ever shown an ability to

[3:46:19] actually hold above the 20 level, dating all the way back to 2022 is the last above that. Every other time we just take these dips back down. Uh, so I'm not I'm not super concerned at this time, particularly if we don't even

[3:46:33] close above Thursday's high. I I feel I feel good about this position even with the up move today. Um, would it be would it be nice if this was at 17 right now? Sure. But I'm I'm by no means alarmed yet. Not nearly as alarmed as I usually

[3:46:46] where I need it this close to expiration. >> Yeah. No, I I I mean, especially with how Rivian's person how Rivian's has that behavior where it can kind of have those uh those whipssaw type moves.

[3:47:00] 18 or 17 and you wanted to make the quick decision to take this one off at do whatever you wanted to do, Riven usually gives you the the window of mean, even if we get an aggressive pullback, I don't think that's very

[3:47:14] pullback, I don't think that's very far-fetched considering how um volatile So like like the points that you already made, Rivian has shown to put in these type of behaviors and because it's in its personality, it's probably going to

[3:47:27] give another window uh to make another decision if you'd like. So that's a good >> Yeah. So we we'll see. But as long as there is some downward trajectory by the end of this week, even if it comes off say the 22 level, even if we get that

[3:47:41] then Friday to start to see some pullback, as long as this starts to show any shred of weakness by the end of this week, I feel fine because I think that that means into next week it looks really weak. Not to not to be confusing

[3:47:54] called? Homopones. >> I got you. I got you. >> Is that is that right? It >> it's been a while. Uh, but that sounds >> Is a homonym different? These these are the questions. I promise

[3:48:07] I paid attention in English class. Ask me about The Great Gatsby. motifs. Anyway, >> ask me about Hatchet. That was one of my little bit before >> was it not? [laughter] Was it not?

[3:48:21] remember I actually read that book just for fun before they ever made us read it >> So you already you already knew it was going to be good. You already knew what like, "Let's get to chapter three." >> Yeah. And the Great Gatsby thing I I

[3:48:34] twice because my first high school I transferred between sophomore and junior year. So, I did it my first high school during sophomore year. Then my second year. So, I had to run all that back, but it was kind of light. I just I

[3:48:46] everything already. It was It was >> That was light work. Yeah. Did you Did teachers know that? >> Uh, no. No, I wasn't I wasn't good. book or whatever. they would have just told me, you know, just get get your

[3:48:59] stuff done. But yeah, no, I I looked I looked like an overachiever coming >> Um, >> no, 100%. catching uh my eye today. Um, I know we have about five minutes left here. Do

[3:49:12] you want to uh give us the uh what kind of what the levels of value are you're looking at in NASDAQ today? >> Yeah. Yeah. No, we'll just quickly talk into some of those levels of value maybe later this week, but we have a little

[3:49:24] hoping that this is a week that oil catches a little bit of a bid. It's been lows. We didn't continue to make lower lows. We kind of just been moving sideways the last 3 to 4 days. Getting a little bit of pops here and there, but

[3:49:37] nothing sustainable. So, we bought a contract in the oil market. Uh sitting at around I think our average is 6805. So, we're kind of hovering just above We'll cut it if we make new lows. Uh but I want I want to catch a little bit of a

[3:49:51] pop on oil just because of how beaten down it's been. Um, and then S&P we sold hoping we see a little bit more volatility this week. This week in SpaceX, SpaceX, SpaceX, where IPOed at 150. Now we're

[3:50:07] sitting at like 160. It's been a little boring. Gus had this position on maybe two weeks now. We still have 46 days left till uh expiration. $5 wide. We collected about $1.70. So we got about $320 worth of risk. So, I want to

[3:50:20] squeeze a squeeze a little bit out of SpaceX just just for the cause, just because it's SpaceX. And then maybe we'll see um if SpaceX starts to develop a little bit more of a trend or a little bit more of its own personality. It

[3:50:33] long. Um and then USO, we have an out of the money put spread that we sold on USO. Uh we sold the 110s, bought the 105s, another $5 wide. So, a little bit long delta in oil, a little bit of long delta in SpaceX. Uh, and then we're

[3:50:46] other positions in QQQ and NASDAQ and what have you. But for the most part, want to see this oil market wake up. Seemingly it was a gold and silver mean, getting that initial pop to the upside. But, uh, hoping a little hoping

[3:51:00] especially again given the range to the downside we've seen. Yeah, we are in a because, you know, obviously there there still is a lot of uncertainty and there at the same time, a lot like we when we

[3:51:14] their their big runup, it's like where where does this actually stop? You know, do do we see a return to all the way to pre-conlict prices whenever this fully resolves itself? I I don't know. Is is it somewhere in the middle? And then,

[3:51:28] see a pop before then? had some headline break that makes it look like tensions little bit more. And I also started seeing news break just today and wrong. I do not claim to be an expert on oil by any stretch of the imagination.

[3:51:43] But I have started seeing things pop up that Iran is actually going to have a massive surplus of oil at the end of this situation and we could see prices get even lower than they were before the conflict started as they try to dump all

[3:51:55] of that and catch themselves back up. So >> yeah, we could see those headlines fine >> Yeah, 100%. Still a lot of uncertainty in the oil market. Um, but what I'm around us and volatility sounds like opportunity and we'll we'll manage our

[3:52:10] headlines come out. I'm kind of tired of the fake headlines. I think we might get some resolutions here soon, guys. Yeah, and I'm uh I'm particularly excited uh hearing those things as it pertains to my USO shorts, which have 165 days left

[3:52:24] on the shorter of the two and then 256 on on the longer of the two. Uh cuz as I've said, ad nauseium, stupid decision to get to buy these puts. But all of a sudden, if we do get some situation

[3:52:37] where say, I don't know, 60 days from now, we get full war is over. It's done. We're sure it's done. Both sides agree, you know, or we're we're sure. And then 60 days after that, Iran comes out and says, "We have way too much oil."

[3:52:54] Like Oprah, you know, you you get some oil. You get some oil. Everybody gets some oil. Uh and then all of a sudden prices collapse. And the whole thesis first place is because if we get one day where there is a decisive giant down

[3:53:08] move in oil, the gamma swings these all the way up and suddenly I'm I'm back in the green. So I I'm into Hail Mary territory, but could that Hail Mary happen? It's it's reasonable that it

[3:53:20] >> So I don't know. I I'll I'll close with that for the day. >> I mean no I mean at this point anything can happen. I mean we got Trump calling in talking about the red card. I don't hate it. It was a terrible call. I don't

[3:53:32] think it should have been a red card in the first place, Gus. Uh but I kind of I stepped in a little bit for a little bit of attention. I don't think he necessarily cares too much about the game. This is politics aside. Um so

[3:53:46] that being said, again, anything can happen. You never know who's going to to put whatever headline out there. Oh, and with my final thoughts, the only reason why, Gus, I feel some type of way about that is because if the US wins,

[3:54:00] certain extent by the rest of the world some type of way about Americans in general. And I get it, right? You feel the level of arrogance, entitlement, all those kind of things. Um, so to

[3:54:12] team does, I would hate to see it, but I'm hoping for a US win tonight. I'm going to go I'm going to go uh I'm going to give it I'm going to give it 2-1 US. I'm going to give it 21 US. >> All right. I I'll say I'm going to say

[3:54:26] yeah, I'm down with 2-1 as well. I'm going to say specifically 1-1 at the end of 90. US finds one somewhere in extra time to 2-1 victory. >> And to your point about the red card, I obviously selfishly like it, but yes, I

[3:54:38] crazy valid. And what I keep asking is, can you imagine if this was Messi or Ronaldo, the absolute mayhem that would be breaking out across the world right now? So, yeah, definitely a little bit of a gray area, but we'll uh we'll see

[3:54:50] what happens. I'm happy to happy to have Balagun playing. Maybe they'll maybe it will matter anyway. So, we'll we'll see how it pans out. the time that we have for today. Thank you so much everybody for taking the

[3:55:03] Never take it for granted. Be sure to tune back in at 1:30 p.m. Central Standard Time for Futures 45 with Chris Veio and Glenn Fry Barge in this right here in this studio. Be sure to like and subscribe to the Tasty Live YouTube

[3:55:17] wonderful stuff we have coming up next. We'll see you guys next time.

[3:55:49] show. It is Monday, July 6th. I'm Mike Butler. I'm here with Jamal Chandler. Hopefully, you all had a good holiday weekend. Watched some World Cup. Some of >> You watch it, right? Yeah, it was good. >> Last night was crazy.

[3:56:02] >> Yes, it was. Mexico battled to the end. That's all you can really ask for. haven't uh sports bet in a while. I don't know if I've told you this. I've stuff. I haven't sports bet in a while, but I'm kind of pissed off. Last night

[3:56:14] would have there was a lot of really good bets to be had. But, uh yeah, I man. It's getting a lot more fun. Uh the stars are showing up now, that's for sure. Um and then of course we got USA tonight, but uh you know, shout out to

[3:56:28] Mexico. It was fun watching Mexico play in Mexico. They were killing it. I thought they were going to be undefeated in Mexico, but uh looks like England and >> Yeah, I mean, he's been he's been insane. And that game was crazy.

[3:56:43] Multiple pen penalty kicks. Just insanity across the board. end. Just like giving it their all. That's all That's all you can ever ask ask for, man. Uh Fourth of July was fun.

[3:56:56] Just chilling with the fam, >> little lazy river roll down. Uh man, it's just relaxing, man. And it was good times, man. Um, we did not buy fireworks this year, but we did see a lot of it. Of course, I heard here the fireworks

[3:57:09] basically from Navy Pier swept into the the Wrigley Field. Is that kind of what was like a huge fog that came over Wrigley Wrigleyfield, but I think it was because the fireworks that happened at Navy Pier and they did a ton of them

[3:57:22] the game. >> It was crazy. was like, "Man, I'm glad I'm not in Chicago because it was that it was just crazy rain. Beautiful where I was. >> Tornado rainstorms and then I didn't

[3:57:36] >> I know, right? It was great. >> Both like pretty close to each other. >> Yeah, it was great. >> But uh yeah, it's always fun heading up there >> watching some fireworks on uh you know,

[3:57:48] legal. >> Yeah, I know. you hear a mortar go off, you're like, "What is going on right now?" here. I mean, my god, like my neighbor was like, "The fireworks are going off

[3:58:00] like, "Really?" I was like, "Wow, that's crazy. That's it's wild stuff." But be back into these markets. I mean, to me, Mikey, this is basically I know we had, you know, trading last week, Wednesday, and and Thursday, but this is

[3:58:15] the beginning of the new quarter now. I mean, this is it starting Monday. I see if if semies pick up. Um I don't know if you had completely stopped completely stopped yet. I was still kind of glancing at some things. I put on

[3:58:28] some risk. Um I sold some puts and a lot of those a couple of te tech names. I didn't get carried away cuz I'm like we'll see what happens. But there was yes, last week was week two of selling in and tech and uh mostly semis I should

[3:58:41] we're going to see a week three or week four. But it's it's kind of a new uh it's a new quarter, right? And we'll see if it's going to be more buying of semis at some point or another. I mean, we've seen some rotation, but I'm just curious

[3:58:55] to see if this is going to be u more more crazy just buying of semis and just like non-stop bids or is there going to be a leveling out at some point in time? I will say though, dude, I don't know which way you went up, but my way up to

[3:59:07] Wisconsin, huge data center. Huge. I mean, I thing was taken over. It was in uh Shbboan, Wisconsin, right up a little bit north of Milwaukee. Massive data center being built. So this is

[3:59:23] real. Like it's not this this AI stuff, this data center. Dude, that I I could not believe the amount of land that thing was was taken up. It is insane. I mean, it is huge. So, it's a real thing. And again, that's an area near water,

[3:59:35] just could not believe the size of this thing. I missed I did not see that. I must have been I must have been adjacent to that. But it's funny you bring that went up through Milwaukee through the north south [snorts]

[3:59:50] uh bypass and then somehow we ended up on Highway 10 and I've never driven on Highway 10, but there's some eerie vibes going on on Highway 10. free wine >> next exit. And I'm just in like all

[4:00:04] >> All caps as big as as big as can be. And I'm like, "Okay, what is this?" And then we look at the exit. We look left and it's like I kid you not this like fake town where it was like seven buildings in like a semicircle and they were all

[4:00:18] inside of it. It was like a very odd like eerie place. It's like they lure you there wine and then they kill you. >> Yeah. No. keep driving >> and we saw this huge Jehovah Witness

[4:00:33] compound. It was like I'm not even kidding you. It was like three gigantic like high schoolsized buildings like in a fenced area and off the highway. It >> This is wild.

[4:00:46] >> This is weird. Has has some uh interesting vibes. But >> yeah. Uh >> not stopping. No. Haha. Fool me once. >> Yeah. The free wine thing. I was like, "Wow, that is that's like straight out

[4:00:59] >> Yeah. Seriously, free wine. No way. Uh >> we got a great show for you guys today, by Mike here and we're going to discuss that. We got a signal versus noise of course with Chris coming on. Uh we got morning movers with Gus. Gus is always

[4:01:13] where um not paying attention yet, but we will be paying attention to as soon you know, a couple weeks ago. Wendy's was a big one. So, we we got that coming overnight trades. Discuss some stuff with her. We got a guest uh after the

[4:01:28] opening bell, Kevin Stewart. uh he's going to come on and talk about tech some things. So, we're going to grill him. We got some questions for him, man, about technical analysis. Uh we got E live from the SIBO. After that, we got

[4:01:40] Tim Knight coming in with his charts. Uh we also will have Julia doing uh a research piece and then we're going to be doing some trades with TP as usual uh coming in with his his heat he brings. And uh then we'll have Q live from the

[4:01:54] trade desk. And then we got Kevin Davit from the NASDAQ. We had an exciting week realized last night. SK Highix is going to be IPOing their ADR shares on NASDAQ exchange. So, that should be something fun. Great time for them to do it.

[4:02:09] fun. Great time for them to do it. >> Yeah, absolutely. We got uh plenty of market movement implied this week as well. Uh S&P expected move for the rest of the week about 100 points. Uh we got some some earnings here and there, but

[4:02:25] uh it's going to be more about just the the macro movements I think in general. the macro movements I think in general. Uh new earning season will be in about a week or so, July 14th, 15th. That's kind of when the banks kick it off again and

[4:02:39] then we're right back into it. So join us every single day this week. We'll be YouTube channel right now if you'd like to check us out there. throw in your trade ideas and questions along the right hand side chat and we'll get to

[4:02:52] them as we can throughout the morning here. Um, but yeah, E- Minis are up 32 right now. NASDAQ's up 350, catching a nice bid in the pre-market session. Uh,

[4:03:04] and I think maybe this is a day where you you look at an SPX iron condor or something like that. But then again, it is the day after the holiday. I think people are going to be salivating trying to get their hands on this market.

[4:03:18] on this morning, I was trying to figure out if this was old or not, but no, it's something that just came out. Um, Micro Strategies, I guess, sold 3,588 bitcoins um to which was $260 million to fund dividends on our digital credit

[4:03:34] security. So, everybody's, you know, up in arms. They're selling Bitcoin again. >> Craziness. Well, there has been a guy that has been spouting off, [laughter] taken taken directional stances on a

[4:03:49] number of different stocks. >> Uh, and he's back. So, Michael Bur says the AI trade has become a bubble. He argues that hyperscalers are overstating earnings. Micron remains a capital destroying cyclical stock and history

[4:04:04] suggests another major downturn is coming. But the bulls have a powerful counterargument. Micron just reported revenue up 346% gross margins above 84% free cash flow surged and AI memory is reportedly sold

[4:04:19] out through 2028. Then there's the options market. Volatility is extremely expensive with over 100% IV and many options expirations and uh pretty high IV rank as well at 91 a half right now. So has I has AI

[4:04:33] permanently changed Micron's business or is this just another cycle before the next crash? Let's check it out on this edition of Options Math Check. So, I think Micron uh is interesting. It's been flying around. I I don't

[4:04:48] Micron premarket where it was just like flat. I feel like there's always pre-market flow in this thing. Uh closed at 975. It's trading at uh,0 right now

[4:05:00] pre-market. And again, 100% IV all the way through November of this year. And even then, you're still looking at 97% across the board through next year. The first 80 print is December of 2027. So,

[4:05:16] the market is is telling us we should expect a ton of uh movement here. You've got 125 point implied move for this week. So, looking at the implied volatility, I mean, it's it's crazy. and you're going to have call skew in here

[4:05:32] uh for the foreseeable future until it stops chopping around and moving big to the upside. But what do you think? Do you think this is the next big tech stock that is a $2 trillion company or you think this kind of falls to the

[4:05:46] >> I mean, I think it's lining up that way. And again, we we we trade so many And again, we we we trade so many things. I don't I haven't dove into do, but I think this is one of those situations where we talk about just

[4:05:59] trading price action and the price action suggests that this stock is um is is just breaking new ground in some way, shape or form. I mean, we've seen the moves more recently. It's been amazing to watch. Speaking of I actually put on

[4:06:11] a uh another call butterfly in a name like this last week. Same thing with just to see what happens. And it's because of the expected moves that I feel like I can try these things and possibly get away with making some money

[4:06:23] in them. Um I it does seem like we talk about it as much as we did Nvidia a Nvidia the same way. It seems like we talk about Micron of all the names. I mean even AMD's moving around a lot, but we don't talk about it as much. Micron's

[4:06:37] been the name. And uh when when you're the name, I think it's the one that a lot of people are trading and it has the most liquidity. And like you said, the idea of the volatility in this name. It's uh it's very high. So yeah, I I'm

[4:06:52] one of the things I do like about big holidays is you get to move around a some different things that you might not see in your everyday life. And seeing man. I'm telling you. I was like, "Wow." I I I've seen pictures. I know that

[4:07:06] these exist, but the amount of cranes, Mike, like and the amount of just machinery, it's it was a lot. And uh that speaks to everything that we're explains why these names are moving the way they are.

[4:07:19] >> Yeah. I think I think the big thing from Micron is Micron is uh the forecast of sales. I think sold out through 2028 is kind of crazy and I think that for me is the staying power.

[4:07:32] Like if you if it was just hype and nothing behind it, if they didn't have a a business model that could sustain this, then I think you would see much realized volatility. you'd see a lot more of this kind of straight up chart

[4:07:45] more of this kind of straight up chart and then crash down. Uh but I think I think it can hold here, especially this day and age. A trillion dollars is whatever apparently. >> Um so

[4:07:57] think this will be, you know, the next Microsoft or or Google type company in Microsoft or or Google type company in terms of market cap, you're looking at a $2,500 price point at at least right now, unless they do a stock split. So,

[4:08:12] still plenty of of room to run if you think that this is going to be the next think that this is going to be the next big tech stock that is MAG7 worthy. Uh, but if not, you've got plenty of implied volatility as well that you can uh

[4:08:26] structure new trade ideas and things like that. But this is a $1,000 stock. We're kind of uh we're kind of locked into these basically how we're trading it, unless

[4:08:38] credit spreads. But I like the butterflies and and the calendar spreads in here. I think they're a great riskreward, >> especially for mid to small size accounts, the butterflies, namely

[4:08:51] butterflies, the 7-day butterflies, the 11-day butterflies that are still pretty cheap because implied volatility is so high. And if you get the timing right, they can be really nice uh reward relative to risk

[4:09:04] >> and you can use those expected moves for you um in in your favor. You know, I make a bet for something to move a hundred plus dollars where from it where it's from night right now. And the fact that you can and and who knows, it might

[4:09:17] even exceed that move, right? Like it's um I think it it is beneficial to be It's it's pretty hard to do. I mean, this is not one where you're just doing selling puts in most of these because it's really kind of it's rather

[4:09:31] to take advantage of those those spreads to be able to do it. But I mean, look, Micron's number 11 in the S&P 500 right now. It it's it's not that far away. And um it's it's been really fast uh the the the rise here over the last couple of

[4:09:46] years. If you blinked, you missed it. But it's here now and it's not that far five. >> Yeah, it's wild. But yeah, uh I have an iron condor on in here from earnings last time. This is an iron condor that

[4:10:01] we wrapped around a butterfly. Mh. Um, and it's working out nicely here. But this is just an example of how far away you can get. 800,300 are the short strikes. And then I went defined risk 20 points wide. You could do 10 points

[4:10:13] wide. You can do whatever fits your risk tolerance, but uh you're going to pick up a couple hundred for even a a 500 point wide range here, which is pretty >> It's a nice thing. Yeah, I know. I mean, we even were able to withstand the move

[4:10:26] this past last week, I should say. I mean, major major [clears throat] move the expected move. Yeah, gota love that. Yeah, but yeah, we'll see how this thing uh behaves this week. Again, up about 30 points pre-market here after closing at

[4:10:41] points pre-market here after closing at 975, jumping back up above a,000. Uh and just really quickly looking at some skew. If you look at the 11day and you go 200 points out of the money to the 800 and then up to the,200,

[4:10:54] uh you're actually seeing a little bit of put skew here, at least right now, >> No, I think so. I think that kind of happened late last week. I mean, these Friday. And again, it was another time where all even though a lot of them got

[4:11:09] hit, you know, there's Micron, the whole AI trade. I mean, I saw NBIS, uh, BE, all those names were getting hit, but it wasn't like the market crash. And I been calling for. Maybe that's what Bur is calling for, right? This the the fall

[4:11:23] in these stocks and some crash, if you will, in the market. But I I just I I least the worries of that yet. Um, sure this is a crowded trade, but when we've trade, it's been rolling over to the Walmarts and the Costos of the world,

[4:11:38] the Lilies of the world. We've seen some some bullishness in healthcare more as long as we're not seeing a crash when these names get dumped. >> Yeah, for sure. So, yeah, we'll we'll take a look when uh the market opens

[4:11:50] here, but I think the MO here is going to be butterflies to the upside or to be butterflies to the upside or downside. Uh, I've got this iron condor. iron condor. There's still $400 of exttrinsic value to decay. So, that

[4:12:05] helps me. If I keep that iron condor on and I throw on like a a butterfly that's within this the short strikes, it'll hedge a lot of that upside risk. Same thing to the downside if you wanted to play both sides here. But, I think

[4:12:18] that's what I would do considering I have the existing position. But I like I of these expirations just because you have 100% IV. You can do literally whatever you want. >> Yeah. And and uh in addition to the iron

[4:12:32] condor you mentioned that we have on like I said um I put on a call butterfly once again. I've done this a couple of times when the name has fallen. Um this time it's moved a little bit further but I got the 1100 uh 1 1200 1300 call

[4:12:46] along with the iron condor I'm I'm happy dude. I'm I'm ecstatic. Yeah, as you should. And yeah, even even in this 4day cycle, you can still see 1100, 1,200, 1300 is trading for what 8 800 bucks for

[4:13:03] >> Yeah, >> it's craziness. Uh but yeah, that's the math check looking at Micron and uh we'll we'll where it chops around and see if we can throw on some some upside butterflies

[4:13:18] within the iron condor strikes. But we do have a very special guest, our first guest of the week, Mr. Chris Veio on the line. Chris, how you doing this morning? How was your holiday? >> It was good. I mean, I discovered a new

[4:13:32] problem on my property. So, a few months ago, I took down some trees. One of these trees apparently is called a black locust tree. It's this uh woody rooting locust tree. It's this uh woody rooting plant that when it uh gets distressed,

[4:13:45] start to go through a process called root sprouting. And so you got all these little trees that pop up all over your yard. I've dug up about 80 feet worth of uh roots across my yard from the original stump have gone into the

[4:14:01] backyard, down in the front yard. It's craziness. So that was my weekend digging up uh roots from a tree. I bet you didn't have my yard looks like a get on and start talking about roots. I bet you had no idea. You There's no way

[4:14:14] >> I did not. >> But my yard looks like the Imaginino trenches everywhere. [laughter] >> Yeah. I feel like here?" Like a madman. >> Sounds like it sounds like Catty Shack

[4:14:27] is what it sounds like. Jam [laughter] Gopher get this jam GoPro. >> It really is. Well, hopefully >> I'll take some pictures and show you the >> Incredible with the hat and everything.

[4:14:41] >> The muddy the muddy face and all. [laughter] >> So good. Well, hopefully that is resolved, but uh yeah, I feel like your with black swan events. I mean, I feel like this is the third one

[4:14:55] >> in the last year. >> We we replaced a water heater last week, which chat GPT and Claude, you know, I wanted to shape my own expectations. So, water heater replacement. Like house is 30 years old. It's the original heater

[4:15:07] and they ballpark it around $3,500. I get three different plumbers in here. They all give me three quotes within $75 of each other. Nothing cheaper than of each other. Nothing cheaper than $9,100 bucks. So, it is a money pit.

[4:15:20] Watch the Tom Hanks movie and then rent forever. Don't buy a home. >> Yeah. Yeah. The Pit. Yeah. Really? [laughter] It's a great movie. >> You've seen Boiler Room, I assume, right? I mean, it feels like it's like,

[4:15:32] when you were getting when you were getting these quotes from these dudes, he was talking to the newspaper guy, he was like whenever he was trying to pitch him, he was like, "That's not a pitch. Were you doing that?" Basically, I

[4:15:44] >> I was like, "No, no." I was like, "The nine is upside down, right? That should >> right." >> No, nothing really worked. But, you know, uh maybe we can make some of that money back trading some Microsoft here.

[4:15:56] Jamal, I've been looking through the options tape. our team of astute together some interesting activity here in Microsoft in recent days. Um, we know Software in general has had a really ugly year. We have had the SAS

[4:16:11] apocalypse trade starting in February. Of course, anthropic launched clawed Of course, anthropic launched clawed code and apparently these software time. Um, so we've seen the largest non-recessionary draw down in software

[4:16:24] in more than 30 years. In fact, in 2026, roughly $2 trillion of software market seen that software multiples, which in 24 and 25 were averaging around nine time sales, have come into about six. So, this has been a real rerating of the

[4:16:39] entire sector. But you're starting to see that the tape is beginning to turn in a name like Microsoft, which has been a victim of the SAS apocalypse here. Uh, two days running, we see bullish call buyers, 6.8 8 million in premium mostly

[4:16:51] bought at the ass with October expirations that carry through that July 28th earnings report. The implied volume in the stock was only about 37 or 38% relative to what I think is the broader uncertainty in the stock right now. Um

[4:17:04] the first of those trades hit last Wednesday October 16th the 405 calls about 5% out of the money for about 2.36 million in premium. The Phil was at the basically flat. So this could be an ad. It could be a role. Maybe it's a trader

[4:17:17] rather than a completely fresh bet. U the second trade hit on Thursday, the October 16th 470 calls about 20% out of the money for 3.03 million. Open interest there was rising by about 13%. So this one looks a little bit cleaner

[4:17:31] as new positioning and that does seem to be the bigger upside bet here. Um the buyers looking for more than Microsoft to stabilize. Obviously they need a real there have been some shorterdated activities as well. Here we see a July

[4:17:44] 8th 397 and a half call about 2% out of the money only a $500,000 trade but the the money only a $500,000 trade but the open interest there jumps 57%. Um so you the short term it's a smaller trade but someone wants exposure now and they're

[4:17:58] clearly trying to look for a little bit of juice here. So u the options trade in prints coming across the tape. You got a near-term kicker. You have an October strike of Microsoft starts reclaiming its sector premium or sector leadership

[4:18:12] premium here. But this is not happening in a vacuum right now. Right? We saw last week on several days Microsoft jumps 4% while the semiconductor chips part of the tape that we should care about here. We've been spending the last

[4:18:26] few weeks talking about the put buying in Micron, SanDisk, AMD, Intel after And now we're seeing the call buying and the beaten down software names in cheap V. So this is how rotations usually begin, right? Selling the expensive

[4:18:40] there and then looking for the opportunities in the downtrodden and parts of the market. So Microsoft down 24% this year, Palanteer down around 24%, service now 31%. If you look at the analyst targets here, Microsoft is still

[4:18:53] looking to trade 44% higher by year end. So um the bullish case here guys is that the SAS apocalypse went too far. The bearish case is that AI is eating the are telling us that maybe we're not going to get a resolution to either of

[4:19:06] those questions before October. But but guys, what do you think here? The open interest turning as a tip of the hat to Frank here, Jamal. Uh we're keeping an that helps give a little bit more of an indication whether or not someone is

[4:19:20] rolling a position, if they're adding. Obviously, we don't know everything about what's going on in their books, but you do see this change in behavior leadership group and the losers, and that could be a signal unto itself.

[4:19:33] important part, like you said, is that that rotation a little bit that we've mouth. And again, this is about sentiment. And when you look at somebody going to give themselves a little bit of time, which is what we've been trying to

[4:19:46] do at times with this trade when we've tried to get long. But I noticed that, Microsoft, CRM, Palanteer, some of those names or software names when semis got Um, I think for those reasons we're not going to see a crash, you know, like as

[4:20:00] far as like people who think this is going to turn into a 2001.com type crash. I think we're seeing rotation into those weaker areas at those areas. Yeah, I think it's really just the euphoria of the chip stocks uh

[4:20:14] is the peril of the software stocks at least temporarily and that's kind of reverse happen like to uh to Chris's point where you're seeing a bid in Microsoft and some selling in products like Micron for example. But uh just

[4:20:28] keep your eye on this low IV like IV ranks at over 100, but that's largely because we have earnings priced in in this 30-day window. Um, but 30% IV, anything in the 30s is pretty low for an equity, which means these calls are

[4:20:41] relatively cheap, especially if you think it's it's going to go up 10 20% in >> And Mike, one one final point there. If you take a look at the SKs in names like lot of put skew in some of these software names, a lot of call skew in

[4:20:54] the semis, the call skew has lessened in the semis, and you're starting to see call skew return to some of the software names. So, just the tape is changing. We got to keep an eye on it. could be one of the clues of a summer software rally

[4:21:07] >> Come on. Love it. We are we have a smattering of Microsoft positions. So hopefully that is the case as they're all all upside positions. But Chris, appreciate you. Glad you got uh you are uprooted now for lack of better phrases,

[4:21:21] but hopefully you have no other binary events in your yard this summer. Uh break. Join us on the YouTube channel. Let us know what you think in the YouTube chat. We'll get to them shortly. Um, but yeah, you're watching Tasty

[4:21:34] Um, but yeah, you're watching Tasty Live. We'll be back in about 90 seconds.

[4:21:49] When you are assigned, you are ultimately short an option that's in the money and the counterparty has the ability to exercise that option. So if you are assigned, it means your option against your will ultimately has turned

[4:22:03] into 100 shares of long or short stock. >> What does a green scratch mean? >> Oo, a green scratch refers to stubbornness getting the best of you. And when I say you, I mean me. Uh, green scratch refers to rolling a position,

[4:22:17] defending a position, and instead of just closing it for less than uh loss that you're seeing, [music] or maybe a $100 loss, $50 loss, a green scratch is when you close it for maybe a 5-cent win, 10-cent winner, 15-cent winner.

[4:22:30] Just the ability to see that green number on your screen and get out in a number on your screen and get out in a profitable way as opposed to a loss.

[4:22:45] Taking off strategies, that's also pretty easy. But what do you do with everything in between? Well, in our options crash course strategy series, the winners. We're going to show you how to handle the losers, but most

[4:22:58] importantly, we're going to show you how to handle everything in between with simple and clear guidelines and reference points. We'll see you guys reference points. We'll see you guys there.

[4:23:42] >> What's up, Tasty Nation? Welcome back to the show. We've got the E- Minis up 30, NASDAQ up 370. Markets are moving pre-market. Uh, but we've got Gus in the house with myself and Jamal, and we're going to look at some of the morning

[4:23:57] weekend? >> It was good. Good time. Grilled some steaks, watched the fireworks. That smoke blowing over the city was insane. They had to delay the Cubs game. I I was like I don't remember this being this

[4:24:09] bad last year when I did the same thing. But uh yeah, had a had a good good stories to kick off the week today. I was I I almost thought it was going to elimination to get down to just four to present to you guys here because over

[4:24:22] especially with the extra day. Four things to break. >> Yeah. Nice. Love it. >> Um kicking things off I suppose the uh is not a public company, but will be sometime. Uh, well, Terowolf is, but

[4:24:35] Terowolf to use their data center in Kentucky. It's expected to generate $19 billion in revenue over the course of the uh 10 years that this that this deal is signed for beginning in the second half of 2027. That is a considerable

[4:24:49] amount of money for Terra Wolf, who did 19 or 160 million with an M dollars in revenue last year. So, a $19 billion deal, pretty good for their for their balance sheet. Uh Terow Wolf moving up on the day on this news. It's been a

[4:25:02] really year. I feel like I started to see it pop up on on Wall Street Bets as a potential short squeeze opportunity a year ago. Uh and we've since moved into here. Terow Wolf being a crypto miner that has rotated into uh AI data centers

[4:25:16] and leasing these out. So Anthropic signing with them. Uh potentially it goes public at whatever crazy valuation they wind up going public at as well. >> About it Terra Wolf this stock. I mean, it's been it's been uh around the block

[4:25:32] just a little bit. But uh look, I saw something this weekend that made me a that's been the story for me. I saw this huge data center being built in in Wisconsin and yeah, I mean, these things are just massive.

[4:25:46] >> Yeah, I know this is a this is a Dr. Jim favorite as well. Terra Wolf comes up good good for him. I hope he was long, actually. I don't know. I just I just don't know what his what his trajectory is. So, hope you picked right there. Um,

[4:26:00] rolling straight into the second one. There is uh now a third player entering the premier player. They have 70% worldwide market share. Uh, Alibaba has supposed to compete in China. Now, we have a Chinese-based company that is

[4:26:16] The company's called Even Realities. >> every headline I've seen about this company this morning says even realities company this morning says even realities founded by Apple veteran Apple employees

[4:26:28] found this company. This company was founded by this guy Will Wang. He did two years on enterprise management at Apple from 2016 to 2018. All right, I guy some Apple veteran. I expected to see some former seuite person that

[4:26:42] jumped over. Uh this guy is just a dude. He's obviously a very smart guy. This company is a unicorn now at a $1 billion valuation and Meta has actually just invested in it. So an interesting situation. Tencent is the is the biggest

[4:26:55] investor here. They really want a Chinese rival to to the to the US smart glasses. But uh just yeah, don't be deceived by the Apple veteran comments that I keep seeing everywhere. This guy was a regular Apple employee for two

[4:27:09] >> Hard pass. >> Yes. But company's doing good. Like I said, it's it's a unicorn. uh the about half of their user base is located in located in the US. So keep an eye on even realities in in IPO talks in in the

[4:27:24] next 5 years. I suppose also could potentially hurt Meta's market share. So drive third player >> what this is the third player. >> Alibaba. Alibaba is the other big one. Yeah, Alibaba Quark and then also

[4:27:36] Snapchat obviously threw their hat into the ring, but I don't know how much I I buy into those big ridiculous things. Well, I've been seeing a lot more uh ads for these and I just got my first video message from glasses of my friend

[4:27:50] putting or birdie and I'm like what what is this camera view and he's like these are my meta Oakleys. I was like oh no >> this is here. >> we are we are in the thick of it now. >> Yeah, my my mom is getting a pair of the

[4:28:02] Wants them for her travels documenting her you know travels all over the world. I mean I would I would entertain getting a pair as well. It does it does seem can just walk around and talk to things. I mean, it's like it's like Jarvis. We

[4:28:15] closer to to Tony Stark's Jarvis. Just being in your life. You can just Hey, business. >> You can't do it. >> Um speaking of Meta, we have uh they are getting faced with another lawsuit here.

[4:28:29] This time from the government in India. It feels like once a week we talk about a meta lawsuit these days. Uh this one pretty heavy. I don't mean to make light of the situation. They were allowing ads for CSAM to be posted on WhatsApp and FA

[4:28:42] and Instagram in India. India is the largest user base for WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram. About 500 million of in of Instagram's three three billion users are located in in India. So huge market for them. They've been cracking down in

[4:28:56] regulatory scrutiny for a little while now. This is just the latest thing. immediate fine here, but they are going to really have to tighten up and should Indian government is interested in in giving them a hefty fine as they should.

[4:29:10] This is bad. >> Yeah, that is uh a big down move on Friday and it's kind of chopping around the same level. It's up a little bit pre-market, but could certainly see that reverse as things get more crazy over

[4:29:25] just going to pay it in. >> Exactly. Exactly. Yes, you could you could tell Meta they got to pay a $5 billion fine and it's like does much? I don't know that it does. >> They're like you got zel do you have zel

[4:29:39] >> Yeah, [laughter] exactly. Exactly. >> Imagine 5 billion. >> Can you send money over WhatsApp because we can cut out the transaction fees. >> Uh last one I have here. Lockheed Martin. Uh they are looking to spend

[4:29:51] $3.5 billion to purchase UK based naval defense firm Ultra Maritime. They are the leading contender currently in a a few takeover bids that are happening for this. JP Morgan advising on the sell side. Uh and yeah, they want to uh

[4:30:06] obviously Lheed Martin among the biggest if not just the outright biggest uh military contractor that that we have publicly tradable. Uh and they want to It seems obviously known for for their

[4:30:18] looking to get into some boats as well. So ultra maritime could be acquired here soon. $3.5 billion. You know, Loheed Martin, they got that lying around. has was a result of the recent war or whatever and the straighter moves and

[4:30:33] >> Maybe maybe wanting some Yeah. some more naval involvement for situations like more naval thing than than airbased thing. Uh or just just broadly, I I can

[4:30:45] scary looking boardroom that's been saying for years, why why don't we have landing on other people's carriers. We should own the carrier. So [laughter] >> It's good.

[4:31:00] where where we're at here is they just want to be a uh vertically integrated military contractor. >> Um then we have yeah some scattered other movers. Uh Data Dog moving this morning. DGO. I know this is a trendy

[4:31:13] ticker that pops up every now and then. Uh sinking after after some analyst downgrades. Um T-Mobile up. Bank of America raised their rating on T-Mobile and said that we are going to enter a phase of peak bearishness in the in the

[4:31:28] phase of peak bearishness in the in the telecommunications sector. Uh but the incorrect sentiment and they are they are raising their guidance against that. So contrarian giant bank. >> What the hell does that mean?

[4:31:42] >> I I don't know. [laughter] >> That sounds like covering your ass. >> it's going to be fine. >> Yeah. Yeah. Then if it goes down, that it's peak bearishness." >> Yeah, we said we were entering.

[4:31:56] >> Yeah. God. >> Um, so yeah, we got we got movers stories breaking left and right. Uh, long long weekends just create so much surface area for news to stick to. >> That is true. Yeah, lots of movement.

[4:32:11] >> That is true. Yeah, lots of movement. And uh it is interesting to see T-Mobile catching a bit after the big sell-off uh after um what's that company that IPOed? >> Uh SpaceX is now a

[4:32:24] >> Yeah. [laughter] >> SpaceX is now a a telephone company. >> Yes. >> Uh sitting up at 164 pre-market. So >> Yeah, it's been very quiet. Our man on the spot, Frank uh Frank Walsh said that

[4:32:38] Meta has only in quotes as he said 23 billion cash on hand. So by the way. >> It's a good number. >> I don't know much, man. But I'm telling you, man, it it's it's worth sticking

[4:32:51] now, dude. Like, >> right. >> This is one I'm willing to like I'm willing I'm doing the risk to find, but I'm willing to like go to the end on this one. Like I think Microsoft is just

[4:33:03] being smacked. And I get why. I get the narrative. But dude, having 78 billion >> That's all I'm saying. >> Yeah, I I agree. I mean, just anytime these largest companies in the world with billions of dollars on hand that

[4:33:17] are too big to fail start sinking to one-year lows, it feels like it's it's a no-brainer to to get involved to me. And yeah, Mike has been shouting in my ear >> right. >> It's got to happen sometime. Yeah, we've

[4:33:31] got a bunch of positions on here. But yeah, I mean it's it's an interesting uh it's an interesting way to play it, especially if you believe uh for quite some time with so much cash on hand, which I think is probably the case. Uh

[4:33:44] >> I mean, Meta will be I think will be fine overall, but like right now it is >> So I I haven't put on any positions in make me do it, but it's not going to be right now.

[4:33:56] >> Yeah. Well, thanks Gus. Appreciate your time. We've got a handful of new tickers to look at this morning on the open. Uh, and we'll check it out. But yeah, we we've got about 22 minutes before the equity market opens. E- mini still up

[4:34:09] about 30. NASDAQ up 330. Uh, the Dow just ticked red, interestingly enough. the morning here. Join us on the YouTube channel. We are streaming live there, second break. You're watching Tasty Live.

[4:34:34] [music] on Trading View charts with Tasty Trades low commissions. Tasty Trades low commissions. Try it out and leave us a review. Try it out and leave us a review. Cool.

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[4:35:14] Being able to see graphically where your profit and loss zones are. Whether it's a pool, a puddle, or a sea, you can navigate your way out of it with the safety platform. So, I love that you guys have the most unbelievable customer

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[4:35:42] it in any corporation in the United States.

[4:35:59] show. My name is Mike. I'm here with Jamal and uh we've got Liz Derking on Jamal and uh we've got Liz Derking on the line and I'm sure you're trading S&P in this pre-market session. Liz, how was your holiday weekend? Uh, can we just

[4:36:11] this morning, but we're all in white? [laughter] >> How'd that happen? >> Looking good, boys. Looking good. It's, you know what? A fresh start to a week. Clean white slate, right? There you go.

[4:36:24] week. I mean, like I said, I I obviously there was trading on last week. Uh, July started last week, but I feel like this is the real week that July is starting. What's going to happen? >> I I agree with you, too. I've just been

[4:36:37] spending way too much time with Chrisio these days. Somebody needs to copy off [laughter] because I am I'm literally taking a page out of his book. He said July it's 11 out of 11 goes up 3% each July.

[4:36:49] >> Oh my god. [laughter] No. >> Jamal, I need help. Somebody help me. >> Oh, he's gotten to you. >> He's totally corrupted me. [laughter] >> Bye in July. And that's it.

[4:37:04] >> Yeah. No, he's I mean he's convinced me 11 out of 11. So it's going to be 12 out of 12. 3.3% up move in July. So, I said, "Okay, let's see what we can do." [laughter] No, I mean, I I mean, I'm talking my book only because I'm I'm

[4:37:16] I've been tra I do trade S&P, but I've been really focusing and I'm going to try in July if it is going to be even a even a non non-existent move. I want to use and I love that you guys were talking about Microsoft because I want

[4:37:29] to use Microsoft near-term options and to keep my theta really high. like every spread right at the monies and just keep lather rinse repeat because that is it's it's defined risk if Microsoft we're all in in an opinion that Microsoft me you

[4:37:44] Gus all of us think that Microsoft could maybe possibly have some upside potential but it's got some really juicy premium you're looking at 107 IV rank you can go into the two-day option sell $5 wide $10 wide whatever your risk

[4:37:57] parameter is is at the money and just keep collecting premium and riding it up or can stay right So that's what I've been I'm I'm really focusing in July on getting my theta numbers up. If it's going to be, you know, a grind the the

[4:38:10] grind up. So that's what I'm going to try to do today. I I did it I did it They So they roll off, right? If you sell it every two days, then they're gone. And so then this morning is on the open. I got to go in and sell some more.

[4:38:22] >> Nice. >> Follow Microsoft. Yeah, Microsoft chopping around the similar closing price from last week, but uh yeah, we are all in unison here with a lot of upside uh bullish strategies in

[4:38:37] Microsoft. We've got what a couple diagonal spreads, a calendar spread in there. Uh but yeah, it's all just all defined risk. But between August and and

[4:38:49] out all the way out in January with the short September against it, but that was when it was down in like the 350 handle. Just getting some >> Who's that? Microsoft. >> Yeah. End of end of this month.

[4:39:02] >> Okay. So it is in it is in July. It is in July. Yeah. >> Yeah. So the next next earning cycle will kick off around July 14th 15th of the banks and then a couple weeks after that you'll have all the tech stocks

[4:39:15] >> reporting. So yeah, end of July. >> Does it does it scare you at all that we should all be buying Microsoft? >> It scares me that uh we're two weeks middle of the month and that July could be over that fast. That's what really

[4:39:29] scare me that we're all on the same page for Microsoft? Not really. No, not this time around. I used to be scared by stuff like that. No. Um I I think the other reason why is because again last week what this was two weeks now in a

[4:39:44] Micron you can look at all the charts right two weeks in a row all those names the week and you guys were doing the show. Uh there was sell off in and semis were buying one of the things they were buying was was Microsoft was Palunteer

[4:39:58] or CRM. I had a great day that day cuz those are names that I'm long. So, it seems like every time there's a selloff in these, there is a a push into this the software names. So, as long as that trend continues, I actually I'm I'm I'm

[4:40:13] fine. >> And tomorrow is a big day, too, cuz SpaceX is going uh into the NASDAQ tomorrow, right? It's it's there will be some forced buying tomorrow in SpaceX. >> Guess we'll see. Perfect.

[4:40:26] >> We'll definitely see. Yeah. >> Yeah. So, and that's that's keeping its wings up, too. Where is that right now? One It's 165ish. >> Yeah. No, I think I just think these this these names have been really kind

[4:40:39] of sold off quite a bit. I get it. I get the reason why. Um I don't know if it's been fully I I >> I feel like if that were the case in the that viable anymore, they would completely be sold off and they wouldn't

[4:40:51] now and again. And again, it's it's the big names. Um so I am I'm long m I'm big names. Um so I am I'm long m I'm long Microsoft with a Super Bowl. I have um a similar deal in CRM and a similar deal in Palunteer and I'm short a call

[4:41:05] in snow. I want to lose so bad on that short call in snow. I do. Um trades when you know you want to lose something. >> That's how I trade. I trade like that. I trade um I love to have multiple names

[4:41:18] in a group that um and in this case normally I wouldn't be long three, but three most viable ones and I'm sure to call in snow. I would be selling a call in NO too, but for some reason those are crazy high to sell. It's like four grand

[4:41:31] to sell one of those. So, I'm short this call in snow and I want to lose on it so bad because I got these risky Super Bowls and these three other software space. >> Whoa, whoa, whoa. You got a naked call

[4:41:43] in snow and you naked. [laughter] happens. Come on. Hurt me. Come on, snow. Come on. [laughter] >> Yeah. Tons of premium here. Um, and yeah, if they if they're all moving

[4:41:57] >> and the only way I lose is if Snow gets taken out. That would be [laughter] >> If Snow gets taken out like $500,000. Oh god, that'd be terrible. and then they'll [laughter] they'll take

[4:42:09] >> if Microsoft acquires Snow. Yeah. >> Oh, that would be that's how it is. >> there. There is one There is one scenario on the board where you do get funny. >> It's uh it's an hundred billion dollars.

[4:42:21] So, you know, I mean, you're going to have to pay $200 billion. >> They're not going to do that. >> No, I mean, like, I'm not in snow right your SPX trade, Mikey. I love it. I think so. So, I I'm really I'm I'm

[4:42:35] year I've been very mechanical and keeping my I'm keeping my theta numbers myself. I've got, you know, my IRA where I buy and hold and do a lot of zebras and diagonals in. Then in my my trading account, I'm theta theta theta theta.

[4:42:49] everything that I can get my hands on that has decent premium. And then I'm trading my S&P mechanically. I've been doing jade lizards and they've been very >> Jade lizard. >> Yeah, good old jade lizard. Um and yeah,

[4:43:04] >> Yeah, good old jade lizard. Um and yeah, we we were trading some of these like uh Super Bowls in SPX where we're selling put spread to buy a call spread. Uh, I'm think that's that could be an another interesting setup where you sell a

[4:43:18] 10-point widespread and then you buy uh 10 point wide spread for a small credit. >> oh yeah, you're going to go Super Bowl in it, which is not bad, Mike. So, kind of springboarding off what I was saying about my my quality time with Veio. If

[4:43:32] if it's going to continue to go up, that Super Bowl is a great trade in SPX. you have the ability to keep it small, but you you get the speed as if you had an undefined risk position because your short put spread finances the call

[4:43:47] spread and they they move in synergy together. So, >> you go pretty far up with your call spread. I you go pretty far up with your put them on, I would do an at the money call spread. Buy it right wrapped around

[4:44:01] finance it. This and that's why I think you're taking a little bit less profit. thousand dollars, right? Or $500 or whatever it is. >> Yep. Yeah. And the last couple of times I've done this, it's been a $200 winner

[4:44:15] to the spread. >> Um so yeah, taking these off, too, because we've been seeing, and I want to get your guys' opinion on this. You've been seeing two-way action intraday. So, you

[4:44:29] teaching my kids, I had them put the put spread on and leave it. I was just like just leave it because we'll number one pattern day trading rule. But now if you don't close that sometimes it's fully they're fully in the money at the end of

[4:44:41] the day. You're seeing things that are you're going to get an up move wrapped between 9 and 10 we're getting those up moves and you're closing your Super Bowl. If you leave them then sometimes they they wind up coming into the close

[4:44:53] trade is huge. >> Yeah. Especially with these with the Super Bowls where you're selling a spread to buy one. Uh you can get really quick profits on just a 10 15 point move. Uh yeah. So

[4:45:06] >> yeah, I like it. Yeah. Right now I'm doing uh a Super Bowl in the one day and >> Uh >> what are you what are you what are you want to be clear about that. >> Yeah. 25cent credit on the Super Bowl.

[4:45:20] it's a credit, right? >> Yeah. Yep. that just gives you that that neutral profitability if all of it expires worthless. Uh which I think in the in the near term is whatever, but in the long term if you do this a thousand

[4:45:33] times like that's going to be a difference maker. Um and then the zero day standard setup five point wide iron condor chicken iron condor collecting $200 to risk 300 and I'll put a GTC order to close it for 50% profit for

[4:45:48] >> Are you working that in the pre-market? So, if you if you don't get filled here, Mike, does that order go into the regular scheduled trading session? >> Uh, question. >> I think it would still fill, but yeah, I

[4:46:02] I would imagine that they would take the orders from uh the pre-market and just push them into the regular market, but I don't know how the back end works converts. We'll find out. >> Yeah, I guess we'll find out. Yeah,

[4:46:17] order in that's a couple pennies away just to kind of test that out because You were at mid-market and they're pretty pretty liquid. >> Yeah, I was I moved the uh I moved both of them up like five cents cuz I I want

[4:46:31] to get $2 exactly cuz I'm crazy for the zero day. I [laughter] think it was trading at like a $1.90. So, I need I probably need a downside move to get >> yes, >> but yeah, same story in the one day

[4:46:44] downside move. Five point downside move these both before I fell >> What else you like and lose? >> Did you ever see the movie Better Off Dead? Mikey wants his $2. $2. >> I haven't seen that in a very long time.

[4:46:57] >> I haven't seen that in a very long time. >> It's a good movie though. Break. >> Oh yes. >> That is my movie right there. Love that movie. They're making a new one

[4:47:09] >> Yeah. Not They already made it. >> It came out like a couple years ago. watch it. I'm >> Yeah, you can't remake those classics. >> can't I can't. No. Can't do it. >> But yeah, I fell asleep immediately, so

[4:47:22] >> Yeah, cigarette. [laughter] Oh, god. Love that movie. Well, I'm a huge Patrick sees fan. I mean, I was Well, I still am. He's not around, but I I was >> There's a Super Bowl. >> Yeah, you got filled on

[4:47:35] still working the Iron Condor right now? >> Yep. >> Okay. >> Yep. Yep. say the one day Super Bowl did the 7450 7440 10point wide put spread to finance uh 74 7540 7545 long call

[4:47:51] spread. So 10 point wide to finance a five point wide debit spread. But again, if you get a 10 10point rally, 15 point rally, it'll be a $100 winner. Uh and that's really all I'm trying to get is just a quick a quick movement in the

[4:48:05] >> There you go. >> Listen, I know you I know you trade a lot. I know you trade Netcast. I know like Microsoft is like the one name. But names besides that? I feel like you don't always trade many individual

[4:48:17] >> Jamal, if you were to look at my account right now, I have scrolling positions. I'm an absolute trading junkie. But it's just but but I just I'm like I go roll them out in time. But I trade four different accounts. I trade an IRA. I

[4:48:32] trade one of my husband's accounts as well. So I trade each of them completely >> Different. And I've talked about people I've talked like about that for years to trading them differently is a nice thing to do especially like in a very simple

[4:48:47] account like we do and then an account where you got long-term stuff that you putting Microsoft in your back pocket whether it's a leap call or however you put an account where you don't look at >> that those I think that's one of the

[4:49:01] >> Yeah. >> So we were I was going through my He doesn't trade at all by the way. He doesn't trade at all. So I was going swing for the fences account. He goes can we just call it something else. I

[4:49:15] was [laughter] sure >> the home run accounting home run >> those are the ones you know you got to be able to take shots but I didn't want I've got my one account that I'm literally just selling premium in and

[4:49:29] swing for the fences one I'm usually buying things in there and it messes up my theta numbers. So I have to put that >> your theta numbers. messes up your head positions and you're like, "Oh, even if you're sitting on a game like, should I

[4:49:41] >> My son actually had this similar situation last night. Now, this is not the exact same situation, but just the idea of risk management. He had on a play during the game, the Mexico game um where I don't remember Mexico and

[4:49:53] had, but it was like shots on goal for some stuff and like Harry Kane to score goal and like uh England to win like all these different things. And most of them had happened and it was like 40 minute like maybe 40 minutes left and he's

[4:50:06] get another shot on goal. No, it was like three other regular shots on goal. three corner kicks. He needed three corner kicks and Harry Kane shot on goal and he had a $10 bet that was already at 180. Now, just like I do with normal

[4:50:19] to manage it, but I'm just telling you, >> think about what how much time is left. like, well, since you asked, just think about how the game is going right now.

[4:50:32] what I didn't tell him was what he eventually just did. He decided to close it out, booked his 170 and he put some profit and for Mexico to win in case to do some other things. And so I was like that's how you do it. Smart. You

[4:50:47] tell him he just did the right thing? >> I really was actually. I was kind of how to >> managing winners watching Chase. Look, I always tell people making the losing money, it's it's hard to manage your

[4:50:59] And so the way we got here, again, talking about having in a home run stuff in account where you just don't see it. Cuz managing winners is just as have money, it's like, oo, what do I do here? What do I do?

[4:51:14] say the home run account, a lot of times That's why it's the swing for the fences account because it's not I I just want are where I put all the amazing winners." Sometimes there's losers.

[4:51:28] out? You don't think about that cuz you Liz. Don't worry about it. >> Depending home run account. home run account. I'm only glancing at the chat cuz somebody is talking about

[4:51:42] Norway. Is Norway playing? >> Yeah, Norway won uh yesterday as well. that how you say his name? >> He's he's taking over the world. >> He is. [laughter] I see the video of him just eating and then he sees himself in

[4:51:54] see that. I got to see it though." >> His face is like completely full of food and then he turns and he sees himself and he's like, "Yeah, [laughter] he's an absolute. He's great." Yeah. >> My my son is actually flew into Helsinki

[4:52:07] and he's going to Norway today. He flew into Helsinki weekend and he's going to account while he's gone. >> Seriously? [laughter] Well, hold Oh, that is amazing for him because I play How long is he staying there? He'll be

[4:52:19] there for the next seven days. Well, today they're still they're still in tomorrow. >> Oh, well, they play again on they play play, I guess. So, yeah, they play on the 11th.

[4:52:32] they're they're there for 10 >> 11. Oh, yeah. Well, then that's awesome, sick for him watching the game there. >> I know. was like, "Oh, I didn't even realize that. He's gonna he's gonna love that."

[4:52:44] They're getting more interesting for sure. Like, it's been good games. So, USA plays tonight, folks. USA plays tonight. And uh we got the guy back. him back. He's been playing our one of our best guys. I think he's like

[4:52:57] basically the best guy. So, it's going to be great. USA and Belgium. Let's go. >> What time is it? Tonight, do we know? >> 7 p.m. our time. >> Yeah. Everywhere is going to be packed. Everywhere, I'm sure.

[4:53:09] be. >> You know, for sure. I mean, I I like it beginning. I'm not So, you know, >> that's fair. >> I feel like we're Where are we? Round of 16 going into the

[4:53:23] >> Yeah, we're in round 16. Um, we just finished round of 16 last night and uh so yeah, this is uh Sorry, we didn't finish round 16. I'm tripping. We're games, but yeah, we're like halfway through round 16.

[4:53:35] >> Love it. And you got Wimbledon going on, too. So many so many interesting stuff. >> Now, Mike, you got one minute to take a look at this. You are our test pancake filled on yet. >> He got filled.

[4:53:48] one. >> Okay, good. So, leave that. Let's just replace it right out of the spin when we when we open. I'm actually working in on. So, I can also tell you if it worked or not.

[4:54:01] or not. >> Lovely. But yeah, the uh the one day Super Bowl got filled on it and we will see what happens here on this on this market open. But yeah, we've got just about a

[4:54:14] minute until the equity market opens. E- mini's up 30, NASDAQ up 280, down the Russell red, Bitcoin flat. Uh, from a futures market perspective, corn up 3%. >> I forgot I had a corn position, honestly. No, I didn't forget. It's just

[4:54:30] a trip. I need to sell one of these. >> Yeah, I I I did forget that I had a corn have a diagonal spread in here. >> Yes, you do. >> Long August, short July. picking up some value premarket here. Um, and then

[4:54:44] guys have similar positions on nine times out of ten? >> Um, we got a we got a decent amount of positions that we share together and at other times. I mean, there's a high probability of like basically when we're

[4:54:57] positions and then we go our separate ways and then we do other stuff. So, as a result, similar tickers when you're talking Yeah. when you're talking to different like slightly different opinions but but they when you talk to

[4:55:11] same opinion on Microsoft. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean if he I was doing out of it and vice versa, right? I mean >> he would try to talk you out of it. I [laughter] >> you would I want I want I want to see

[4:55:26] how this goes. I'm gonna see how this goes. There's the bell. goes. There's the bell. >> Hey minis up 32 catching a bit. It seems >> Hey minis up 32 catching a bit. It seems like uh still not filled on that zero

[4:55:38] day iron condor. So, we'll see. 24 hours. >> Oh, you just got >> So, you can put on a trade that's in 24hour and and it'll still work

[4:55:52] >> No. And the S&P markets are tight. I will tell you because I've been doing it every single day in the 24 hours. But I do believe they are. I mean, it's it's a a bit tighter once the market is actually open.

[4:56:06] >> So Mike just filled immediately right after the market opened. Not that there now 42 where we you needed a down move movement to get to get what you needed bit once we open >> for sure

[4:56:19] selling off again. Like we said >> yeah the down Russell just ticked green here. Um I already have a working order in for that one day uh the Super Bowl. If I can get another 10point move in the e- minis, it'll probably fill and be a

[4:56:33] $200 winner again. So, trying to go three for three here, we'll see if we >> Three for three. I love it. This is like This is the new move I'm teaching my when they go to college this year, they're going to have the Super Bowl.

[4:56:47] >> I love it. >> Super Bowl and SPX, it it can work well. >> Yeah. And when and when set up properly, you've got a lot of room to be wrong to if it's going to if it if you're going to lose, you're going to lose. If if it

[4:57:00] there. >> Yeah. But yeah, I've got 70 points >> Yeah. >> Uh for this one. So, yeah, I like it. >> And the early going. We got a lot of semis up. Got Marvel, uh AAT, uh STX,

[4:57:16] those memory names. WDC, SanDisk, Sandis back over 1,800. Micron back over a,000. back over 1,800. Micron back over a,000. AMD moving. Meta's up pretty strongly here. Haven't seen that in a while. Um Tesla, most of the Mag 7 is kind of up

[4:57:32] except for Microsoft and Nvidia. Apple is slightly flat. So some bullishness >> What do you think the market's going to happen with your microns and the things on Friday when we get the SKH Heinix IPO?

[4:57:46] Do you think a lot of those names will go down because you don't need the proxy So those names have been a proxy for trading for trading for trading that and and Friday you can trade the real thing instead of using the proxy.

[4:58:00] these trade just because they want to try and trade SK highix. I think they all trade together because everybody believes in the whole story. I saw the biggest data center that I have seen yet this weekend Liz when I was heading up

[4:58:12] to Wisconsin huge right outside of right outside of Shbboen Wisconsin. I mean, the amount of space that this thing is taking up is insane. So, I think it's just a broad story, and I think it's just another name that's obviously going

[4:58:27] down when they move down, honestly. Um, >> yeah. >> I kind of agree with you. I think the market can kind of open up and have and have lots of lots of room for everybody, all the players in the game, because to

[4:58:40] story. It's kind of like SpaceX. Everybody thought that markets were to shift from space into SpaceX and it really didn't. I mean, there's little volatility, but it didn't. It didn't move the way that everybody expected it

[4:58:52] to. >> Yeah. I I just don't see it. Um, you get filled on the butterfly for SpaceX? >> SpaceX. Uh, yeah. I closed that out uh sometime I know I closed it out sometime

[4:59:05] last week, I think. >> Um, as I was going through positions. >> No, it is. I don't know if I want to hold it or I don't know if I want to hold it or close it. Yeah, [laughter]

[4:59:17] >> you don't you don't put orders in to take profits where you want them, Mike. it up and and look at it. >> Um, so for for longer term trades, like I would say this is kind of a longerterm trade, 11 days butterfly where it's

[4:59:31] still going to move a lot. I will just look at it. But these S&P trades like even visually seeing it cuz you have the flow just so quickly. So the zero day stuff and the one day stuff uh I do have

[4:59:44] orders in for GTC's >> just so that I don't miss it cuz it could be a 10-second window where you get hit. Uh and I've seen that before where it's like you see the flash and you would have been filled and then it's

[4:59:56] >> yep. uh for the really near-term stuff, definitely use GTC orders, but I also have the ability to look at the platform a lot during the day, so I don't feel like uh I wouldn't be able to manage something that's more long-term.

[5:00:11] >> Good. Yeah, you that is nice. That is one thing. So, I do we used to say this day trader, make sure you got closing orders in for everything because you're point, you're sitting here like the junkies that we are and if you see a

[5:00:25] and then that's gonna [clears throat] that's gonna bring you there. >> Yeah. So like this right here, this this is the one day Super Bowl. It's chopping around. It's up 150 75 90. So like the bid ass spreads are still a little bit

[5:00:37] wide, but if you get a 10point rally in the E- minis, this will probably fill for the $200 profit target because it's just so just a fast moving trade. >> for sure. Folks in the chat, please like, subscribe, and share all tasty

[5:00:52] content. >> Please, please. Are there any trade ideas in the chat thus far? >> Any trade ideas thus far? Let's see. keep an >> eye seen any

[5:01:09] early on. >> Everyone's recovering from their >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Did you guys see firework? Well, ridiculous here. >> Yeah, I I saw saw some fireworks.

[5:01:24] they had like there was like 30 boats on the water and they were blasting it off >> Where were they? >> In uh Monacqua, Wisconsin. So, yeah.

[5:01:36] >> I was in Monaco. Yeah. >> No way. >> Do you do that a lot? >> Yeah. Yeah. At least at least once or >> Yeah. Monaco's great. >> The old the yacht club. Thirsty Whale.

[5:01:51] >> Shout out to the thirsty well. >> You know it. [laughter] here. >> Yeah. Something like that. >> Pretty far. We didn't We got lucky. We didn't have any traffic really. Uh

[5:02:05] busy on the way back yesterday. >> Yeah. >> Oh, quick fade in the markets. We jumped up. Now we're pulling back some. Feel like every morning we get that like we get a quick, you know,

[5:02:18] what? I'm putting on a super. >> Well, so I mean honestly, I know this but Zajun when he was here, and I loved when he did this, Zajun did a study where the the first 30 minutes of the market, he said he said it's not I'm not

[5:02:33] of everybody's battling each other. Things are still getting open. Sometimes there's some randomness. And then at 9:00 is when you get 9 to 10 is when you 5minute down bars. And I really hung my

[5:02:46] helpful for me at 9:00 to be like, "Okay, I'm fine putting in a Super Bowl or something here." Because if you want to get a quick in and out. >> Yeah. Especially if you're It gives you the opportunity to get in lower, too.

[5:02:58] >> If you would have put if you had something in that was like 50 cents would have gotten filled on that little dip we just saw. Yeah, for sure. >> So, yeah, it gives you it just gives you that nice time where markets get more

[5:03:13] liquid. You can kind of see what the tape is looking like. Right now, it looks pretty bullish to me. I mean, it's it's not we haven't faded too much, but >> again, that can change pretty quickly. Uh, so we'll see. See.

[5:03:27] reference the VIX. Right now, we're at 16. I mean, I if [clears throat] Chris Beckio comes fruition comes to fruition, I need it in the 15 handle. I need VIX to just continue to sink in order for us to just kind of meander north, meander

[5:03:41] >> no, I kind of like VIX at these levels like 17, 18. Still moving around a lot. We still got a lot of movement here, you know. I don't know if we get a 15 VIX doing what they're doing. The way that they move around that like they have. I

[5:03:54] just think I think >> we dipped a toe in the water last week in the 15 handle. >> Yeah, the VIX futures are in pretty decent contango. you got over a point between the N, the Q, the U, and then uh

[5:04:09] flattens out at the end of the year, which is fair. But yeah, I think I think we'll probably have a slightly elevated VIX just because we have all these earnings coming up in two weeks >> that uh could push and pull the market

[5:04:21] >> especially with, you know, your Microsofts, your microns, what have you. >> Yeah, true that. >> Um, but Liz, we're going to take a quick break here. appreciate your time and uh hopefully you you are getting some S&P

[5:04:36] action this morning. But 9:00 am 9 to 10. That's the that's the 9 to 10. good day. >> Likewise. Uh we're going to take a quick You'll see we'll see you on the other side of it.

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[5:08:52] show. My name is Mike. I'm here with Jamal. E- Minis are up 30. NASDAQ's up 300. Got some single name stocks flying around. Micron up 25. >> Uh Iron up five bucks. Intel up five bucks.

[5:09:05] Microsoft down. Kind of crazy to see, but we have a very special guest on the line, Mr. Kevin Stewart. How you doing today, this morning? >> Absolutely. What do you got your eye on today? Anything moving your needle here

[5:09:22] on these this morning market? >> Um, well, a couple things. One, I've been away for the last 10 days, so I'm trying to kind of get a pulse and get try to get away a little bit here and

[5:09:34] attention to the market um last week, but I think it's, you know, I think it's kind of interesting here because a lot of the MAG 7 stocks are bearish um or neutral with a weakening trend score. So, I think the general market here

[5:09:48] showing some weakness, which I find interesting because like you said, like the open's been pretty good so far, but I don't know if we're starting to see a I don't know if we're starting to see a a sector rotation into more um you know,

[5:10:01] hit I think an all-time high at some point last week. So, I just think it's really interesting that you're you're seeing a lot of kind of mixed signals here in the short term. >> So, we're we're option traders, Kevin,

[5:10:14] We're always looking at um you know maybe names that are on their lows like a Microsoft or whatever and we're trying to find ways to get long it or um names probably selling call spreads in it. Like that's how we are drawn to trades.

[5:10:26] How are you drawn to trades as like a a stock trading analysis person? >> Yeah. Um I am not an options trader so I've been watching your guys show trying to learn and get better. I I haven't been great at options. So, I'm more of a

[5:10:38] swing trader personally and the algorithm we have is more about catching stocks that have a lot of support underneath them and not a lot of know, asymmetric bets. >> So, how do you tap into those ideas

[5:10:53] for a bit, so like now you're coming back. What names are like are you drawn into? Is it something that's like on its lows or you like man this Micron is like higher? Like how are you what's what's your like what what are ideas that are

[5:11:05] how are you drawn to ideas immediately? Yeah. Uh, well, our algorithm gives every stock a trend score. So, I look for stuff that is either neutral or bullish with an increasing trend score because that usually means the price is

[5:11:19] going to go up. Um, not not a guarantee, but we measure map all these different confluence or pivot points and we look for stocks that have a good amount of support underneath them and not a lot of overhead resistance. So, we really like

[5:11:33] overhead resistance. So, we really like um UFO here looks good. Uh, Palanteer looks good. Dell is getting close to overhead resistance and if it breaks run. So, those are some of the interesting stocks. Like I said, the DI

[5:11:47] DIA is probably my favorite right now out of, you know, SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, strength here. >> Gotcha. Gotcha. Um, yeah. I mean, see,

[5:11:59] you as somebody who started off a little bit with trading analysis, I'm not like understand it in as a simple way. One of the harder things for me to do early on was to match it up with options trading. So, let's go a couple some of those

[5:12:13] names you mentioned like uh the easiest one is probably DIA. Like DIA is one where um the volatility is still fairly low. You could actually you could actually make a case for buying calls in here or a call spread in here. Um if you

[5:12:27] looking at this chart and you're like this could break out and go to higher highs, right? This is one where you could do that. Dell, here's where it gets dicey when you talk about options. [laughter] Dell is expensive and it's

[5:12:40] spreads in and Dell right now. That's one where probably you buy a short maybe you you sell a put spread because it's yourself too much to the downside. So that's how we look at that as far as

[5:12:53] option traders. So um but I mean those are good names you mentioned. >> Yeah, I think when it comes down to the the strategy itself, like to Jamal's point, you I look at Dell, I see 80% IV, I want to be selling something in here

[5:13:05] or or if I'm buying something, it's going to be with a really strong short premium component. But like the diamonds, uh, this is an absolute like diagonal spread candidate for me, just because you've got 16% IV, which is

[5:13:19] because you've got 16% IV, which is super low, low IV rank as well. Uh, so this is a 15 point wide diagonal spread I have queued up here, 530, 545, and it's less than $1,000 with $5, $600 of max profit to the upside if you get a

[5:13:35] move up there. So yeah, I think uh looking at these and just analyzing the different implied volatilities, but also yeah, looking at products that have some room to run to the upside like UFO and then yeah, it's it is interesting to see

[5:13:49] the MAG7 sector kind of on its butt here. I mean, it's been you've had the E- Minis and NASDAQ down the Russell ripping higher, but the MAG7s that you would have thought would be leading the charge are simply not.

[5:14:02] >> I know, right? Last question for you. you excited for SK Highix this week? >> Uh yeah, I like I said, I'm just getting right back into uh right back into the beat on everything, but you know, there's always opportunities in markets.

[5:14:17] know, like you guys said, like be smart about where you place your bets here. >> 100%. Well, thank you, Kevin. Appreciate your time. Uh we will take a quick break here on Tasty Live. We'll be back on the other side of it.

[5:14:44] approved FINRA's proposal to eliminate the pattern day trader rule, also known the pattern day trader rule, also known as the PDT rule. This is a big deal for many retail traders. For more than 20 years, the PDT rule has been a major

[5:14:57] roadblock for smaller accounts that wanted to actively trade stocks or options intraday. In other words, we call it day trading. Here's how it used call it day trading. Here's how it used to work. If you made four or more day

[5:15:09] day period, your account could be flagged with a pattern day trader designation. To keep that status, your margin account had to maintain at least $25,000. If your balance closed below that

[5:15:23] amount, your account could be restricted from trading and issued a PDT related call. At Tasty Trade, they're called an equity maintenance call or an EM call. The result, retail traders with smaller accounts were effectively limited from

[5:15:38] actively participating in markets simply because they didn't have enough capital. Now, that's changing. Under the approved update to FINRA rule 4210, the PDT designation is being removed. And that means you no longer have to limit the

[5:15:53] number of day trades you make in a five business day period. And you no longer have to maintain $25,000 minimum just to keep day trading in your margin account. In short, as long as your buying power stays positive, you

[5:16:07] can continue to day trade in your margin account. On our platform, we show realtime buying power so you can always see where you stand and keep your risk in check. Now, it's important to talk about timing. While this news can be

[5:16:21] exciting, these rules will not take effect overnight. The new rules will become active 45 days after FINRA publishes its regulatory notice. After that, firms that need more time to update their system will have that

[5:16:35] additional time up to 18 months to fully phase in those changes. So, be sure to check with your broker for their specific rollout timeline. And remember, day trading is extremely risky and not suitable for everyone. You must be

[5:16:48] trade. It's critical to manage your positions carefully and to fully understand the risk of potential loss. We'll continue to keep Taste Trade account holders up to date as information becomes available. So stay

[5:17:00] tuned. >> There's a beast in the financial world >> There's a beast in the financial world [music] and it's not the bull. If that's you, join us on Tasty Trade.

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[5:17:31] show. We got the E- Minis and Nasdaq trying to catch a bid here. E- minis are trying to catch a bid here. E- minis are up 45. NASDAQ's up 450 now and the Dow just ticked red. So, lots of uncertainty this morning uh after about 22 minutes

[5:17:44] of trading. But got E on the line from the SIBO floor >> and uh we need a decibel need a decibel like over there? >> Uh you know actually coming in right

[5:17:58] chatting about the Mexico and England game and I'd say that I would give an 8.8 decimal points to the games last night. Uh and then it was pretty crazy like maybe 5 to 10 minutes ago. I I'll give it a smooth seven flat.

[5:18:10] >> Beautiful. Yeah. What do you think about that? through just because obviously my mom's from Mexico descent as well. But I mean

[5:18:24] I think it was a really good game. I mean giving up two goals within four minutes. I mean that just can't happen. And you got Bellingham just wide open on >> I think England played a great game but I think some things could have been

[5:18:36] difference and them trying to whip the ball in the box. That's tough to score and you have such a larger team. So, uh, I kind of feel for the fans out there. But I thought it was a really good game. I'm excited for tonight for sure.

[5:18:50] knowledge there for those who don't know. Arrow played some soccer. Um, mean, isn't it crazy that like they were down a man for majority of that time and they could really get something going. >> Yeah. Uh, not at all. And I mean, I

[5:19:04] half was great for them at least just for the morale. But, uh, I mean, even going down 10 men, I mean, that's that's tough. That's tough. So, um, how was things here? I know it was really foggy as well. Had a lot of soccer this

[5:19:19] a lot of that stuff this morning, but it's the first time I'm seeing you two, there. >> Yeah, we were away from the fog. We were we were we were both in Wisconsin. We were away from the the post smoke from

[5:19:31] heard it was like the most fireworks they had ever lit off and I think that's >> no, it was great. It was great, man. It was great. You know, now we're just watching the fireworks this morning in the market. Up 40. That's right. Yeah,

[5:19:43] everything went everything went swimmingly. Um I did just learn that my swimmingly. Um I did just learn that my AC unit is has been uh blown out. So July. >> Uh yeah,

[5:19:55] >> I I need to buy zero day Microsoft calls and [laughter] >> I was about to say, what are we getting into today then? I know Micron and bit. Maybe a little bit of long delta in there. New AC unit. Yeah, [laughter] I'm

[5:20:09] the cost basis on my AC unit that I have to buy now. Uh, that's probably going to everything's fine. >> Yeah, everything's fine. >> Yeah, everything's great. >> Uh, but yeah, what are you what are you

[5:20:22] looking at this morning, E? >> No, you know what? Um, I haven't touched >> There we go. It's getting a little bit louder. It's getting a little loud right SanDisk >> since Micron was trading at around maybe

[5:20:36] 300 400 bucks. No kidding. >> But I really like the pullback that Again, I'm not I'm not I don't want to catch a falling knife, but I also bit of long delta just to catch a little bit of a rebound. Again, I don't want to

[5:20:51] top is in. I want to let the market prove me otherwise. But with the pullbacks Nikon and Sand Sandis has swung, I don't know. But the the long delta is is uh is in question for me at least. Uh what are your guys' thoughts

[5:21:04] on Micron Sandisk? I know we've seen a little bit of a shakeup, a little bit of a pullback from the top here. >> I I like seeing these type of moves um so I tried to play him after a while. I first did it last week with Micron

[5:21:18] I bought >> some call butterflies. So in Micron specifically, I bought 1100, 1200, 1300 call butterfly. um $7 and change. And um

[5:21:30] >> the same thing in SanDisk and I I think it was $100 wide or maybe I went 200. >> The 4 day or the 11 day. >> Uh in the 4day. Yeah. Um 2,000. Yeah, I did $100 wide in Sandis as well. 2,2100 2200. So just seeing if

[5:21:46] again. They got smoked towards the end of last week. Um >> see what happens. >> Yeah, both of these are 100% both these are relatively cheap. less than $1,000 for a 10k payoff if you pin it. Um, so

[5:22:02] yeah, lots of movement there. I thought it was interesting looking at at uh Micron. If we just look at the 4day versus the 11day, the 4-day options are basically the same price. We're trading at right at a,000. You you have no skew

[5:22:15] here in the 4-day cycle. We were seeing a little bit of put skew uh pre-market. I think maybe that got zapped out with the slight up move we're seeing right now. But you still see call skew in the 11day. But I think it is interesting. I

[5:22:27] iron condor. >> Nice >> uh for $300 profit. >> So love to see that. But yeah, I think I think you're going to still see some neutral maybe a little bit of downside

[5:22:40] skew in the near term in Micron, but still long term you've got the call skew Uh but still plenty of opportunity. I think if you're trading things into the call side on the upside, those those butterflies are just that much cheaper

[5:22:54] with the sale of those two short options. So, I like it. consider that butterfly as well with that long delta because I like how that mapped that out. Uh but yeah, no, a lot of volatility in Micron and Sandis.

[5:23:08] catching a falling knife, but I also don't want to be the one to be calling lean I'll lean a little long. >> There you Yeah, I I think you know there sentiment going into the weekend. This

[5:23:22] Last week was the second week in a row we we saw a sell off in semis. they bounce back this week. That's really the story honestly. Maybe this SK highix by the end of the week helps. >> Yeah, absolutely.

[5:23:35] well. Uh before we go here, USA, Belgium, how are you guys feeling about >> USA. >> USA. USA. Uh, oh jeez.

[5:23:47] Belgium, right? >> Uh, I mean I mean I don't know if you [laughter] >> Yeah, actually. No, I'm just kidding. Um, I'm going to go I'm going to go 20 USA.

[5:24:01] >> Mike, you got any you got any guesses for us? Uh, >> I think we'll go 30 >> USA. It's the post Fourth of July mayhem.

[5:24:14] It's got to be It's got to be chaotic. It's got to be high energy. I think we'll I think we'll get it done. But we'll see what happens. It's going to be a fun match either way. But E, appreciate your time. We'll see you a

[5:24:26] little bit later today. Uh yeah, E- Mini's still >> trying to catch a bit here. Up 36. NASDAQ up 380. Uh but we're going to take a quick 90 second break here and uh we'll see you on the other side of it.

[5:24:38] we'll see you on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.

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[5:27:18] show. My name is Mike. I'm here with Jamal. We've got the E- Minis up 40, NASDAQ up 400, and we've got Tim Knight on the line. And uh very intrigued to see how the holiday went for you Tim on the West Coast.

[5:27:39] bother with that. But >> you're not even happy about fireworks. [laughter] >> Uh I there there is joy in my life. I'll than any fireworks. So I took both my dogs to the beach. One of them for the

[5:27:53] first time. There's this enormous beach called Fort Funston, which is kind of uh like dog heaven. Uh there is hundreds of dogs running around and uh it's deep

[5:28:05] down a cliff and they had a blast. So that was my fireworks display just that was my fireworks display just watching them run around joyfully. Um >> and you know, we had the whole family together which is nice and uh yeah, it

[5:28:17] >> See, love it. >> That's that's the most happiness you're >> [laughter] >> I, you know, given I'd rather see a drone show than a fireworks show. But yeah, this is uh this is this is the uh

[5:28:30] unfettered joy that you're going to [laughter] reach. Um [clears throat and snorts] anyway, um so let's see. Let's see. Um I guess That's always something to talk about. >> Absolutely. Let's do it.

[5:28:45] >> Uh in in no particular order cuz it's kind of a grind fest this morning. So, I just had a little little Whitman sampler of items to look at here. Um, the first this critter STRC. Um, as I mentioned, this is the um

[5:29:00] instrument from strategy. Um, high yield, 12% now, I guess. And it's been quite the ride because as we look at the history of this thing, um, it had been sailing along uh, you know, ostensibly, it would in a perfect world it' be like

[5:29:15] basically 100 all the time and just throw off a nice fat dividend. But it it recognized that um being based entirely on Bitcoin Treasury wasn't, you know, didn't justify a peg. So, it was kind of wobbly for a while, but it still

[5:29:30] respected this trend line for a while, but then things changed here. And this is a beautiful example of how um support can change into resistance. So, we violated the trend line of this day, fell, pushed up, and tried and tried and

[5:29:45] tried 3 days. Exactly. Tag tag tag. uh the trend line there is like ah forget it. Then it sort of did this swan dive down we go. And what's interesting with crypto over the past week is that it's had this um pretty impressive bounce

[5:29:59] which I think uh reached its apex over the weekend. Uh so we had a bounce here. This this poor thing went from around 70 to around 90. And I think the CFO was glorious things they were do going to do to to get it to that peg and make it

[5:30:15] stick there again. But as it is now, we did reverse away from that strength um on Thursday, I guess it would be. And uh we're just kind of I mean 1.82 is a instruments, but for this one, it's kind of steady as she goes. So I think this

[5:30:32] bounce on that is probably just about shot. And so what I did on on um Thursday, so again, cuz Friday was a holiday, is um I'm using this line as the basis for my strategy trade. My view was that the bounce was terminating as

[5:30:49] of that level. Um it um and you know, so far so good. It's down weirdly. It's down percentage- wise almost exactly what STRC is up, although they should be kind of perfectly correlated, but um it's down. So, it's a good start. Uh,

[5:31:03] long-term, um, the this mega pattern right here is what I'm really focused on. But, so I am short MSTR as of Friday at a at a pretty good about as of Thursday at a pretty good price. Um, so that's clicking

[5:31:17] good price. Um, so that's clicking along. Um, one item that I had been short and I covered a few days ago, but I want to get back into again is uh, I want to get back into again is uh, ICE, uh, which is, uh, Intercontinental

[5:31:29] Beautiful head and shoulders on this one. Not a very heavily traded one. Not a very heavily traded instrument. Um but uh big old monster instrument. Um but uh big old monster top there. And um this is um this fell

[5:31:41] nicely and then had this this very lusty bounce here especially on Thursday. But I I think it's a um going to be a good time to get back into this one. So something like just kind of eyeballing this here. Something like boink. Nice

[5:31:54] this here. Something like boink. Nice tight stop on that one. Uh, generally speaking, uh, like I said, a lot of bouncing around here. Um, the ENQ continues to be banging around a range it's been in since, uh, June 12th. Uh,

[5:32:09] we've got resistance here, support here. We had tumbled nicely um, down to support, but um, we we're at 402 points right now. So, still kind of a grind fest there. I suppose when we get nice and deep into earning season, that might

[5:32:25] help clarify things. um when we get a meaningful number of reports out because there's no really huge economic or political events and of course geopolitical events are unscheduled. So all we can kind of count is that maybe

[5:32:39] July it'll kind of shape things out of this malaise cuz it's seems to be sort of at a kind of a happy equilibrium right now not doing much of anything. Um the ES um still tracking this diamond pattern

[5:32:53] two bears still surviving. We're starting to push away from this in the continuation pattern. It would just kind of pushes up and away from this because it's been consolidating for for months at this point, but is starting to push

[5:33:07] out and above that um on the diamond. And a few just kind of weird odds and ends. Um saw that SpaceX is now officially part of the NASDAQ 100. I think the a small part basically fittingly enough you know 1/100th of it

[5:33:24] fittingly enough you know 1/100th of it uh 1% um but that chatter it's not news to anybody this was expected but it is um perhaps helping boost it a bit. It's up about 2.3%. Um, the history of SpaceX is is you

[5:33:37] it basically blasted higher 3 days, collapsed the next 3 days, steadied itself, and now it's doing a pretty decent job around the 160ish level. Uh,

[5:33:49] there's really nothing meaningful we're going to learn from this until kind of two almost exactly same timed events. August 11, the first big um the is is the not even big, the first release of um that lock up either 20 or 30%

[5:34:06] depending on the price of the stock and the earnings which uh as of today I that's going to be but the earnings their first public uh earnings announcement. So that'll be an interesting August for SBCX. Um but as a

[5:34:22] chartist I mean there's nothing to go on here. It's interesting to watch but there's just no meaningful conclusion one can draw you know except on a tick bite tick basis from this and as an example of that um Cbrris which is also

[5:34:36] quite young but like five or six times older than SpaceX you can see here this I mean you could have say back here said hey things are looking good looking stable looking like a bite no it's it's just it's just too little to go on uh

[5:34:50] it's going to be a while uh many months at least before you can say anything meaningful about it from a charting perspective. Um, one item that is uh interest that does have some history to it uh is SanDisk which of course had

[5:35:05] been a sensation. Um, this thing I forget the the level but it went up percent. I don't know if it was 4,000 or what but in like a year just some insane what but in like a year just some insane lift from like $20 to, you know, 2500.

[5:35:19] Um, but it did break with quite a lot of trauma. Um it's a [clears throat] very stiff trend line from last week. Um uh there was a big drop on that because these storage stocks uh like this and WDC have been just just monsters. So

[5:35:35] that's that's cracked. And the last one um a rare bullish idea. Uh I I like the look of StubHub. Um this is um you know I always like to say as far as context.

[5:35:48] It's a little awkward to say anything bullish in a market that's so richly StubHub. It does look like a nice inverted head and shoulders. It has a nice little lift there. East bag pushing higher again. So, that's um that that's

[5:36:02] worth the look. ST and that is it. That's all I got. >> Well, I tell you what, I am 100% with you on CBRS. I was actually short of calling here and um it was about to well, it's 11 days ago, but I just

[5:36:15] rolled it out further. I was trying to decide whether to keep that trade on, me to keep it on and I rolled it out to August. So, now I'm still short upside while. You're right. >> Okay. I hope that works well for you.

[5:36:28] >> Thanks, buddy. Appreciate your time, Tim. We will see you a little bit later. >> And I got to check out that dog beach. I think that sounds like a good time. think that sounds like a good time. >> Fort Funston. Fortunes

[5:36:45] Microsoft's trying to catch a bid here. Down six. It was just down like five and Down six. It was just down like five and change. Uh only 1.5%. So trudging along, but caught a nice bid from last week down at 350 all the way back up to 380.

[5:36:58] We'll see if we can catch a continued bid here. But we've got our next guest bid here. But we've got our next guest on the line, Julia. And uh Julia, I'm holiday?

[5:37:10] >> Fantastic. No. >> You can see people who went to the lake. the lake to go watch the fireworks and it was just like fog. [laughter] >> just fog. So, it was just flashing sky, which is super cool. Um, but I got some

[5:37:25] of the uh up close personal fireworks. Uh, I did not My view was just fine. >> incredible. Amazing. >> Yeah. some We were uh both in Wisconsin, >> Yeah. some We were uh both in Wisconsin, so we got the the full shebang with, you

[5:37:40] all that jazz. >> Yeah. Oh my god. Some loud stuff up >> Boom. [clears throat and laughter] >> The mortars are the fun ones. Yeah. >> Can't even There's no smoke really. They're just tiny little light that you

[5:37:54] don't notice until it goes off. And yeah, those are the best. >> Put it in reverse, Terry. [laughter] >> The classic video. Uh yeah, we got you ready for ready for some slides? We got quite a few, but

[5:38:09] fast. We're looking at the last quarter. Kai put this piece together. Uh options follow. It's a a different account he switched over to. So, uh post stuff on talking about the last quarter. Had a had a crazy quarter. How you feeling

[5:38:25] >> I feel like we're going to see some volatility. >> I love it. I love this. This environment suits my trading style. That's honestly >> market go up market go up market go up market pull back and then market go up

[5:38:38] >> and then market go up more. >> Yeah. So we're going to talk about it. highlights. We're going to talk about uh what you know expanded what contracted is going to be mostly focused on uh price performance. So let's get into it.

[5:38:51] So best quarter since 2020 which is kind of crazy. S&P up 15% which is near double what it normally returns in a year around 8 n% uh historically. Uh and

[5:39:03] the NASDAQ up 27% just showing you like how much like tech companies and tech heavy stocks especially this uh memory and semiconductor names have just been like absolutely exploding. Um chip equipment makers especially in June. Um

[5:39:15] commodities we're seeing a contraction um kind of like a much needed one especially with crude. Uh but 31% that's a pretty big contraction with gold down 14% and silver down 22%. Especially with like gold historically being like a

[5:39:27] store of value that's a pretty significant contraction for a commodity like that. Then commodity adjacent bitcoin fell 20%. Um still kind of doing nothing. And then was obviously a pretty big event um from the last couple of

[5:39:41] months uh weeks. uh largest IPO in history topping a two trillion dollar which is I mean we got some other names coming up later uh that are valued less but this was a really big event especially having not a ton of IPOs uh

[5:39:57] last couple of years. >> Yeah I mean crude obviously was a result of a geopolitical event but uh gold, silver and bitcoin those are the areas they completely got out of those and got into semis.

[5:40:10] >> Yeah out in the semis. So chips start I guess hoarding the chip guys. Um but we movers from the last quarter and like standis uh and Micron just like standis uh and Micron just like absolutely exploded up 256% in a quarter

[5:40:25] and then 242 respectively followed by Intel AMD Dell kind of a interesting yeah just showing you again u memory semiconductor anything semiconductor adjacent just had a really really strong quarter and then data dog pala networks

[5:40:41] um applied materials so again like very tech heavy strong performers looking at the downside we're seeing some consumer names in here we got Lulu CME Netflix um and then into a Turboax I don't know I thought a tax season would have helped

[5:40:55] contracted 39% on the quarter one of the worst uh per or the worst performer in the quarter in the S&P 500 It's crazy that all of those green bars >> Yeah, >> just just want to call that out.

[5:41:11] >> It's pretty spicy. >> It's insane. It's absolutely insane. And >> Everything on the left is just like 25% 30%. It's just, you know, your classic bad quarter. But all the ones on the green over 100% to the upside.

[5:41:25] >> Insanity. >> Yeah. Which like 25 down 25% on the on the quarter. like that's not I mean in comparison that's not too bad but I feel >> not great >> like that's that seems kind of like a

[5:41:38] lot but I think just like with prices being so volatile and with so like you we've seen in the last couple of years um I guess we're kind of like I don't know I guess used to it at this point and then in the the next slide we're

[5:41:51] uh well in June so far the biggest or well or not well so the biggest movers in the S&P 500 in June and again we're seeing applied materials in this list So, kind of what we talked about last Monday when we did our market overview.

[5:42:04] We're seeing some like healthcare stocks, biotech stocks as well. Um, stocks, biotech stocks as well. Um, starting to shine. Um, SanDisk still still going, parallel to networks still going. So, those haven't yet to slow

[5:42:17] more like healthcare names, biotech names sort of rise to the top. And then, uh, again, I guess nobody's doing their taxes into it. Another large loser in seeing some interesting names sort of pop populate the bottom. Uh Qualcomm,

[5:42:32] Palunteer, Oracle, SNCI are showing a contraction over just like a very contraction over just like a very stellar quarter um you know before. Qualcomm to the downside and I I'm sure of putting that and I think it's gotten

[5:42:44] rocked while all these other names have moved up these other semis. But yeah, there definitely not a surprise. Software's gotten smoked into it as well. It's been an interesting quarter. Yeah, Qualcom was also surprising to me

[5:42:58] while. So like having this much volatility um has just been interesting to see and this much of a contraction as well. Um so yeah, that one I think was on the list. And then uh Coinbase as well I guess is not as much as a

[5:43:12] >> Yeah. >> Cool. Yeah. Let's go to the next slide. So uh yeah, best quarter since 2020. And from 2020 we were coming off like some from 2020 we were coming off like some serious serious bottoms. Uh so that was

[5:43:25] um yeah it's just really interesting to see uh NASDAQ up 27%, Russell up 21%, S&P up 15% and then the Dow lagging behind a little bit up but still up 13% which is a very strong year for the Dow uh and we're talking about a quarter.

[5:43:39] So, uh, yeah, it's just, uh, again to see, uh, putting this within a little bit of historical context and then, uh, looking out since like 2000 just how grown, just how much these kind of like bluish positive bars have outweighed the

[5:43:54] sort of down years or quarters, I should say. Yeah, I think this one's really interesting because it's it the gains are not followed by a big sell-off like that 2020 previous high like you said that was COVID everything down sell it

[5:44:10] all and then you get the big reversal where this is just like a little blip to the downside followed by a momentous rally that exceeds everything except for that 2020 blip and then 2010 but 2010 was also followed uh was a following the

[5:44:27] the big sell-off there. So, kind of crazy to see that the lack of the lack of red the previous quarter uh did not stop this train from ripping to the >> it really went full steam ahead. And then I think the Russell is the other

[5:44:41] interesting story here, up 21% where it outperformed the S&P, right? So, I think that's actually a pretty um uh what's the word? encouraging sign I suppose because we've talked a lot about how like a small handful of companies have

[5:44:54] index lifting up the entire market outperforming as a whole and with like small caps starting to really shine in showing that potentially uh the rest of smaller companies are starting to catch up a little bit. So to me that's like I

[5:45:09] think a very encouraging note Russell starting to outperform um we're seeing volatility there and well so very tradable uh with the uh with options. Yeah, >> cool. Okay, let's go through some of

[5:45:21] SpaceX, uh, I mean, just we've already talked about SpaceX, we kind of beat this to death, uh, a little bit, but, uh, with Anthropic filing a $965 billion valuation and OpenAI expected to follow. Just really exciting year for IPOs. And

[5:45:34] this was one IPO where retail investors were highly engaged. So, um, kind of and see what the retail investors are doing as well. Um, so yeah, a lot of stuff going on there. IC B Saudi Ramico I feel like they eventually pulled their

[5:45:50] IPO, right? Or they didn't at least list on the US markets, I don't think. >> That said, I've been seeing their name a whole lot during the soccer stuff. >> Yeah, they're uh >> yeah, they're big name. I have to double

[5:46:02] check that. I thought that they did, but I'll have to I'll have to fact check that. That's a good call out. >> Yeah, SpaceX has almost 17 million shares traded today. That's like basically right behind Nvidia. So, lots

[5:46:15] of activity. Yeah. >> Yeah. And it's it's sustained, which I maybe like first couple days of trading, I saw that it outpaced like the S&P or I'm sorry, the the MAG 7 combined in terms of trade volumes, which is crazy,

[5:46:30] was curious to see if this becomes kind of like more of a staple name. Um, a lot of like obviously concerns around SpaceX similar to concerns that we've heard ratios and like long-term profitability and speculation around the trading. Um,

[5:46:45] see, but it's it's still kind of going. >> Oh, yeah. That doesn't matter. >> That stuff doesn't matter. >> Nobody looks at sheets anymore. All right, let's go to the next slide. >> So, just to kind of put it in

[5:46:58] perspective how absolutely bananas uh Sandex SanDisk has been moving. Um, as well as uh Micron actually had a very similar quarter in Q2. Um, picks and shovels beat the headline names. AMD, um, Micron, Nvidia, uh, just again like

[5:47:15] strong quarter, but we're starting to see some kind of contractions in semiconductor adjacent names kind of that we talked about in the last slide. >> And then Dell kind of one to watch a little bit of a quieter name, but still

[5:47:28] very strong quarter. >> Yeah, Dell. Dell I did not have on my >> No, >> same with SanDisk. bingo card. >> Sandis? Oh, not at all.

[5:47:41] crazy. And it's been on the bingo card for the last I don't know, however many rounds of bingo that we're at. Um, but yeah, AI trade splitting the market. Um, chips are soaring basically while software is lagging. Um, everything a

[5:47:55] Um, which kind of goes to show when you're trading these kind of like diversified indices, uh, you can kind of catch wherever that momentum is, whether it's software or whether it's in chips or hardware or anything like that. um

[5:48:08] which I think is a really, you know, you know, good case for trading again those like ETFs, diversified names. Um and a lot of this is down to like AI memory, high performance memory. Um and yeah, with Yeah, Sandis was not on my card.

[5:48:23] >> I have long deltas in both these sectors, semis and software. >> Yeah, >> you're still long. long deltas like short puts mostly in the semis and long deltas via like Super Bowls and and the

[5:48:38] >> Yeah, >> there you go. >> With Yeah, just comparing semiconductor stocks against software. But again, like with the NASDAQ and with even the S&P 500, you can really like capture

[5:48:50] whatever area is kind of like, you know, striving, I would say. Um, but then the other story is crude uh crude fell 31% below $70, top 89th percentile quarterly decline. a very large like high velocity decline in crude oil contracting back

[5:49:05] down um and then with the S&P kind of going up uh on a variety of other news that as well like as well as like the geopolitical context. Um energy stocks fell only 13% showing a bit more resilience against the commodity as a

[5:49:20] whole. Uh but again uh like the kind of stickiness of the energy sector we're to kind of catch up. I love this chart because starting in March, it was clear that it was like the basically crude oil is the VIX of the market. And if you

[5:49:34] look at the S&P and VIX over a long-term chart, this is exactly what it'll look relationship. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. crude the crude backwardation just got zapped and now we are just sitting

[5:49:47] around that 70 sub 70 handle and we have a completely flat curve all the way to what February of 2027 everything's in the 68 handle so it's been crazy >> Does that mean that crude traders are just V traders in disguise?

[5:50:02] >> Yeah, >> still kind of does. I don't know. We're seeing a little bit longer expansion contraction but very similar vibes. And then the last one, uh, looking at currencies, oh, the yen, um, reached 162

[5:50:16] in Q2, weakest level since the 1990s. Uh, it rose a bit in June and year to date. Uh, but again, off of like a pretty rough quarter and pretty rough point. Um, I don't really trade much currencies for a similar reason why I

[5:50:30] don't really trade much in terms of bonds. Uh, just because uh, the like V can be kind And then when you get a big move to the downside or when your you know markets

[5:50:42] hit by that ball spike. So I don't really trade much by term in terms of currencies as well. Like I remember reading I think it was like JP Morgan's yearly outlook back in 2024. They were just like hard bullish on the end and

[5:50:54] then it proceeded to uh underperform and be one of the weakest currencies there have a tough time with currencies. I don't know how much you guys trade them don't know how much you guys trade them but rough year for the end. I don't

[5:51:06] really get it, [laughter] >> but some of the other ones I do. Yeah, mean, this one kind of has a mind of its own at times. >> Yeah, I like I like trading the TCFX products and just finding positive carry

[5:51:21] and just getting long at price extremes or getting short at price extremes and just having that positive carry beta decay, if you will. Um, but yeah, that's pretty much it. So that yeah, crazy stuff going on last quarter. We're going

[5:51:37] yeah, I'm looking at healthcare. I'm looking at small caps. looking at small caps. >> Still looking at SanDisk, um, Qualcomm, semis, chips, softwares. Yeah, all the things.

[5:51:49] >> Everything. >> Well, appreciate your time, Julia. Uh, great research as always. And yes, go follow Kai on Twitter if you haven't bit later. >> Peace, guys.

[5:52:01] >> Adios. Uh, E- Minis catching a bit here. Up 50. Why hasn't Why haven't I not been filled? What's going on on this uh zero day one day stuff? Maybe in a little bit. Yeah, we're 25 cents away. We'll see if we get hit. But we're going to

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[5:54:14] Jamal. E- Minis and NASDAQ catching a bid here in the first hour of trading. We got TP on the line. TP, how you doing We got TP on the line. TP, how you doing today?

[5:54:29] >> Everybody loves the NASDAQ. >> How was the weekend, man? How was How was the 250th down there in Austin? How was it? >> Oh, the the Yeah, it was fun, actually. Um, you know, we had to keep it kind of

[5:54:43] kind of cool here. We had a a couple of friends over and hung out and grilled some hamburgers and stuff like that. But Jamal, like I was saying uh to everybody on Friday, the dogs go bananas with the fireworks. So really it was it was just

[5:54:59] fireworks. So really it was it was just keeping keeping the dogs, you know, from vibrating too much cuz they they just they just get so scared with fireworks. So that's what we spent most of our time doing. Like around 6:30 it started. Um,

[5:55:14] but we give them Trazadone. I don't know if you have dogs, Jamal. Um, but Trazadone or you're a chemist, you would know this stuff. Trazadone, I think, is know this stuff. Trazadone, I think, is the dog version of a human

[5:55:28] >> tranquilizer kind of. >> Thank See, that's what that's why that's [laughter] >> And so, I don't know what it does, but we have to give it to him early enough. Um, and that's kind of what my wife and

[5:55:42] I were spending most of our time, Fourth of July. But, you know, Jaba, I do have a tower. So, I do have a tower at the Preston Ranch here. So, I went up by myself. My wife and everybody stayed down with the dogs. I went up there to

[5:55:54] watch the the the personal displays. And the nice thing about Texas is you can you can get fireworks here. Um, and because it's rained, there wasn't a huge fire risk that we've had in previous years. So I just go up in my tower and

[5:56:09] all these little cool little explosions going on. Yeah, it was great. Thank you. >> How was yours, Jamal? Did you spend it? >> Can we talk about a second that beautiful phrase you said, I have a tower at the Preston Ranch? [laughter]

[5:56:22] >> Yeah, I do. It was amazing. >> Oh, it's awesome. Jamal, Jamal, I think you've reached the point in your life where you need a tower. [laughter] where you need a tower. [laughter] >> I agree with you. Mike is Mike. Mike's

[5:56:35] still a little young. Mike's Mike got a little ways to go, but Jamal, you're getting to the point where [laughter] >> So, guys, so Mike, did you actually were able to uh did do you have all 10 fingers left, Mike? I know you you like

[5:56:48] fingers left, Mike? I know you you like to set things off.