5 NFL Betting Strategies — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:00] I finished November in the middle of NFL peak season up over $14,000. And this year, I'm up over $22,000 of track sports betting. And right now, prize picks limit me to $5 an entry.

[00:14] I'm also heavily limited on almost every major sports book. And in this video, I'm going to show you the exact five strategies that I implement specifically for NFL. Number one, let's start with prop discrepancies.

[00:26] Because this same player can give you two winning picks on opposite sides. Hear me out. Suppose PrizePix has a receiver at 49.5 yards, and another app has it at 59.5.

[00:39] Take the lower projection more and the higher less. He finishes with 55 yards, and both picks hit. That is called a middle. And the first strategy is literally that simple. The reason why the market is so inefficient with all these players is because there's 53 players per team.

[00:56] There's so many different stats, so many different DFS books, so many different exchanges that are setting new lines every single day. Let's take a look at a real example. Cam Scalabo for week one has his projections of the 15.5 on PrizePix.

[01:10] On better, he's set the 12.5. For a player who might see a couple passes a game, that three-yard difference would make all the difference. The tool I use to find this prop discrepancy is called the Prop Discrepancy Tool at Upside.Tools.

[01:23] Surfaces the biggest prop discrepancies in the entire market for you. And the players with the largest discrepancies are surfaced to the top. So again, just to recap here, the middling strategy would imply that you're going to be taking the under at 15.5 on Can Scatterbow and the over on better at 12.5.

[01:41] If he finishes at 13, 14, or 15, you win that leg on both apps. Now, I will say that middling is not always the optimal strategy, especially when taking a look at major players in NFL.

[01:54] Middling only works when there's a large enough discrepancy between two player plot totals. However, what is the proof that either better or prize picks have the sharper line? Well, there actually is base and proof.

[02:06] And that brings us to strategy number two, which is line comparing. The line comparing strategy simply involves comparing the prize pick projection across all the sportsbooks across the entire U.S. This thing in age, we have access to over 200 different types of sportsbooks to compare, and especially for a popular sport like NFL.

[02:26] When line comparing, we are comparing the price that prize picks pay for their projections across all the other sportsbooks and the price that they're willing to pay for that exact same player prop. With Scatabow, we compared different receiving yard projections.

[02:40] But you can also find a price difference when everybody offers the exact same projection. See, here's the thing. American odds are just simply a price. Every sportsbook offers their own American odds for their player props.

[02:52] American odds can be confusing for new sports bettors, but all you really need to pay attention to is the minus and plus sign in front of the number. The more negative the number equals, the more favored the number is.

[03:04] The more plus the number is further away from plus 100, the lower the chances for that bet to hit. So let's go ahead and look at an actual example. This is Zay Flowers against Indianapolis, and we're looking at his over 4.5 receptions.

[03:20] He needs five catches for this to hit. As you can see here, Fanzel has his over at minus 130. DraftKings has it at minus 142. They're offering the exact same player prop, but they're charging two different prices.

[03:33] At minus 130, I'd have to risk $130 to win $100 in profit. At minus 142, I'd have to risk $142 to win that same $100. I'm putting up another $12, and I'm not getting anything extra if Flowers catches those five passes.

[03:50] Now, look at PrizePix. PrizePix is a fixed payout platform. For a given lineup type and payout, the standard picks aren't each assigned their own sportsbook price. you're picking more or less, and the lineup pays according to that payout structure.

[04:07] That's why you keep seeing minus 119 in the price picks column here. The optimizer converts the payout structure we comparing into an equivalent price per pick So that number stays the same across these standard props while Fandle and DraftKings set different odds for each one

[04:24] If the lineup type or payout changes, that equivalent price can change too. But you can see why this caught my attention. The sportsbooks are charging more for his over, and PrizePix is offering the same 4.5 receptions at a cheaper equivalent price.

[04:39] The next thing I look at is the percent odds to hit. Here, the optimizer estimates 54.5% for flowers to get five catches. That's after accounting for the VIG, which is the margin built into the sportsbook odds.

[04:52] We want a market estimate with that margin removed, so we're not treating the sportsbook's markup as our edge. And honestly, this particular example is close. Minus 119 worked out to a little over 54%, so 54.5% isn't some massive advantage.

[05:08] It shows you how to make the comparison. and if the payout gets worse, that small gap can disappear. This is why I look across the market instead of finding one expensive over and calling it a great play. I want multiple books on the exact same projection.

[05:22] And I want the fair odds to support the price I'm getting on PrizePix. That's pretty much what I'm doing with line comparing. With Scatabow, we had different yardage totals. With Flowers, the total matches and the odds are different.

[05:35] Either way, I'm looking for a better number than the market is giving me elsewhere. Now let's get into strategy number three, which is positive correlation. This is where we look at how players on a slip affect one another.

[05:48] Let me explain. The easiest example of this is a quarterback and his wide receiver. If the quarterback throws a 30-yard pass to that same receiver, you've just added 30 passing yards to one single prop and 30 receiving yards to the other.

[06:02] That one play helps both overs. So, if you're taking both of those overs in a power play, the chance of them hitting together could be higher than if you picked two unrelated player props. That is called positive correlation.

[06:16] But, Pride 6 also knows about positive correlation. If you put an obvious quarterback and receiver stack together, they can nerf the payout. You're getting more correlation, but you're also getting paid less.

[06:28] And, let me show you why that matters. Say just for this example, a four-man power has a 12% chance of hitting. If it pays 10 extra money, a $1 entry has an average return of $1.20.

[06:40] That's positive expected return. Now take that exact same entry and drop the payout to 8x. That average return then falls to 96 cents. The players didn't change, we just accepted a worse payout, and now the math is working against us.

[06:56] Now, those are made-up numbers to explain, but I can show you some real proof. Here on the screen, you can see a positively correlated slip with all Patriots overs as well as the Seahawks. Here I got Drake May over 229.5 passing yards, A.J. Brown over 62.5 receiving yards,

[07:13] Romeo Dobbs over 35.5, and Cooper Cupp over 30.5. All four are obviously very positively correlated for the more side, a pass-heavy game script. And for this example, let's assume that each pick has a 57% chance to hit, according to the market.

[07:29] Now, here's the most important part. Take a look at the payout. This screen shows this pays out 7x, opposed to the normal 10x. If these picks were independent, we'd multiply 57 by itself four times,

[07:43] and that gives us about a 10.6% chance. At 10 times, that's about $1.06 back per dollar entered. At a 7x payout, that's about 74 cents back. But these picks are not independent.

[07:56] That's the whole reason we're looking at this stack. The question then becomes is how much the relationship changes all four of these picks hitting together. At a 7x, we need that chance to be above about 14.3% to come out ahead on that payout alone.

[08:14] And that's what you should always be mindful of. Does this connection between these players give me the extra chance for all to hit for the payout to be worth it? Seeing a quarterback and his receivers on the same flip doesn't answer that by itself.

[08:28] And in 99 of the time practice has adjusted the payout to make it not worth your time So when the payout shifts then what becomes the strategy What I looking for in NFL is the less obvious

[08:40] combinations where there's a reason for the props to move together and where the payout still makes sense. To better understand this concept, here's a real example. Think about Seattle building a lead through the passing game. He could pick up receiving yards while they're putting up points

[08:56] on the board. Now, New England has to catch up, which also means they're throwing more, which could also mean fewer carries for Stevenson and more opportunities for Dobbs. That's a game strip that could help all three picks, even though we're mixing an under with two overs.

[09:11] But that part is not the edge. Look at the payout. That's the edge. Getting all three right still pays six times the entry, which is a standard three-man power payout. So, this is a combination I can keep looking into without accepting a reduced multiplier on the

[09:27] 3-4-3 result. And that's the entire process. And the reason why this is strategy number three is because I first look for line comparison on player props and then possibly combine them with

[09:39] positively correlated combinations that don't affect the payout. Because what you're really doing under the hood is you're taking individual player props that already look good when compared into the market. But then the nice thing on top is that you positively correlate them with

[09:52] combinations that also give it a percent odds boost. So what you're really doing is you're compounding two different edges on top of one another and increasing your overall edge. Now let's go ahead and move on to strategy four. And honestly, strategy four is my favorite strategy.

[10:06] Why? Because it's actually my most profitable strategy and I honestly haven't used it yet for MSL. However, for MLB and NBA was the first time that I personally used it and you guys saw the results. This strategy involves tailing whales. And when I refer to whales, I'm talking about

[10:22] sharks who have deep pockets, people who have a ton of money to set their own lines on exchanges. If you don't know what an exchange is, it's similar to a sports book, except it's 100% peer-to-peer, meaning that you can be the sports book. You can set one side and wait for somebody

[10:38] else to accept it. Let's run through a quick example. Let's say that I wanted to bet on the Patriots to beat the Seahawks on opening day. As a market maker, I can put down as much money, I'm not kidding, as much money as you want at a specific price for the Patriots or Seahawks to

[10:54] win. Let's say I set the Patriots to plus 120, and I set $1,000 down for the other side to accept at Seattle minus 120. And it's really that simple. Once somebody accepts the opposing side at minus

[11:06] 120, that means you have $1,000 at the Patriots at plus 120. Half the game is setting lines that It makes sense for both sides. But if you find an edge, then you obviously can create your own line. Now, here's where the strategy comes in.

[11:19] I like to think of these sharp sports bettors as the sharpest in the entire world. I'm talking about the ones who actually market make for a living. Now, why do they market make on exchanges? Because they're severely limited on sportsbooks.

[11:33] Sportsbooks do that when you win. So what they do is they then market make on exchanges as another way, as another avenue to get down volume. So the strategy becomes this. If we could tail, if we could take the exact same bets as a whale, as the market makers,

[11:49] for a better price on a sportsbook where maybe we're not limited yet, why wouldn't you? If these guys are profitable long term and they're setting hundreds, and I mean hundreds of thousands of dollars on these exact lines,

[12:01] but you can grab their line, their price, an even better price on another sportsbook, why wouldn't you? And that's the entire strategy, but let me automate it for you. So what I have pulled up in front of you is the Whale Watch tool directly off of Upside.Tool.

[12:16] And it displays all the information that I just went over. For instance, if we take a look at this Kyle Braddish play, I understand it's not NFL, but baseball is still relevant. It's relevant for every other sport. You take a look at this Kyle Braddish play, and at the very top here, we have 10.1K worth of whale volume.

[12:33] And what that means is that there's a market maker on Calchi, on Novig, on ProfitF. It doesn't matter which exchange. But if you see here if you look a little bit further down next to Novig there 9 worth of liquidity on Novig right And they setting this price which means they offering their money at minus You see up here on price fix and as we discussed earlier in this video this specific

[13:00] play at minus $1.19 can be taken advantage of on price fix. So again, if a market maker is willing to sacrifice his own money at $9.7K and a total of 10.1k worth of volume that is at a worse price than what we get at Pride6, then that play is

[13:19] worth taking, and that is a profitable sports bet. And now let's go over strategy number five, which is using AI to find profitable sports bets on Pride6. And I'm not talking AI pulling up

[13:31] track with BT or Quad. I'm talking about an AI tool that automatically scans every single sports book and utilizes all the strategies that we looked at on one single feed, not just for price six, but then puts it into a slip.

[13:45] Puts all those profitable plays into a slip and allows you to one-click bet on the price six so that you can take advantage of the value. With everything this day and age being automated, timing is everything, and you need speed.

[13:58] And this plus easy sniper tool is provided by Upside Down Tools, and instead of explaining what it does, I'm going to show you. So like I said, what we're looking at here is called the Plus TV Sniper, and it takes into consideration every single sportsbook

[14:12] and directly compares it back to PrizePix. So as you can see here, if I pull down the very first play, Devon Achan, if we take a look here, minus 119 is the assigned price. He is set to 69.5 on PrizePix.

[14:25] As you can see, looking across the entire industry, going back to strategy number two, we can see that minus 175 is set on CalSheet, four is under at 69.5. Same thing for no big. No big minus 133.

[14:37] We have the score, whatever sportsbook that is, minus 130. But then across every single other sportsbook, we have the actual projection set lower, right? So we have one of the sharper sportsbooks in the entire world, FanDuel, setting the

[14:51] same three yards lower. Now, the really cool part is that this automatically loaded, as soon as I clicked on this tool, it automatically loaded in to show the top most profitable sports bets. That's not even the coolest part.

[15:04] The next coolest part is going ahead and selecting it, right, and putting it to your bet flip. At the very bottom here, I'll move my big head, there was a bet flip button here. If you click on that, you can then autofill your entire flip, right,

[15:19] to a six flex. Watch this. Now I've been talking, so, again, the value might have moved. But this part is the best part. I then copied over this lineup directly over to price it, where I can then take advantage. So as you can see here, directly copied over, I found all profitable plays.

[15:35] I don't even have to look at these other plays to know they're profitable because, again, it utilizes the plus EV strategy that I was talking about in my second strategy. So if you take a look here, again, just to double check.

[15:48] I already entered the club because I know it's profitable. But if you take a look here at Melvin, right, or Melvis, sorry, Nevis, Harrison Nevis, the entire industry say we have a minus one, 135, minus 135, minus 135.

[16:00] I didn't even need to know that because all I did was simply one click bet this bet flip to the side and then one click bet that or one click bet it into price six. Right. And it's literally that easy.

[16:13] And again, all of these props are time sensitive. You have to have speed. You have to have AI load in all these comparisons. Good luck manually checking through all these sports books. Right. and then comparing prices and trying to take advantage.

[16:27] This allows you to one-click bet it over the price fix and then take advantage. So those are the five strategies I'll be using this NFL season. You can see how they all fit together, especially with the Park TV Snipers. I find a discrepancy, compare the odds,

[16:40] and check whether the players are working together at the payout that I'm getting. The Sniper helps me find those opportunities the fastest, and Whale Watch gives me another way to check the market. And these are proven profitable strategies.

[16:52] And if you guys want the same tools I was using here in this video, I'll go ahead and drop the Upside.Tools link in the description. And if there's a part of this that you want me to go through in more detail, guess what?

[17:04] I stream daily on Twitch. And I will also drop that link in the description.