Profitable Prop Betting in 3 Easy Steps

[00:00] some of the most beatable lines that a  sports book puts out are on player prop   bets however there is one major mistake  that most betters make when betting props   I'll show you step by step how to beat player  props and how to avoid that mistake in this

[00:17] video hi I'm Jack from unabated when I was first  starting out in sports betting over 20 years ago   I build up my bankroll crushing player prop bets  the lines were probably easier to beat back then  

[00:32] but we didn't have nearly the variety of bet  options that are available to today's bettors   we also didn't have the tools available that  we do today to spot the edges quickly and to   get the bets down swiftly in a previous video  we explored how beating sports betting doesn't  

[00:50] have to be about predicting the future it's more  about price and probability that method is known   as top-down betting and if you haven't watched  that video it'll be linked below many of the  

[01:02] reasons that top-down betting works for game sides  and totals are the same reasons why it's not the   preferred approach for beating player props you  see top- down betting relies on Sharp BS shaping  

[01:15] the lines at sharper books that will take their  action you then use that as your cue as to what   the line should be their sharp liquidity hammers  the line into shape however player props typically  

[01:27] don't have massive liquidity in their Market  markets it's a much tougher bet for a Sharp   hook to handle so they don't take as much on these  bets for both the sharp bets and the sharp books  

[01:39] it's not a priority you can't effectively use top-  down betting on props when it comes to props the   better approach is to find trustworthy projections  as your source of Truth and use them as your guide  

[01:52] sometimes paying for these projections can be  worth it but Jack you told us not to buy picks   aren't projections just picks for player props no  player projections give a full picture of what the  

[02:07] expected output is for a player in a game you  then apply that to the market of available prop   bets shopping for the best line is still key just  like in top down betting one thing I rarely do on  

[02:19] this channel is ask you to like And subscribe  I feel the content speaks for itself however   YouTube's algorithm wants to see those things as  confirmation that people want to see more of these   types of videos so allow me to make a rare appeal  for a thumbs up and a sub it will encourage me to  

[02:35] keep putting out videos like this thank you now  to many betters player prop bets are attractive   because they're a natural extension of DFS daily  fantasy sports where you construct a lineup of  

[02:47] players and then their individual performance  dictates how many points your lineup receives   today's betters have become hyperfocused on player  performance factoring in everything that could  

[02:59] influence a player stats and this is actually one  of the reasons player props are so beatable when   you're trying to predict who will win a full game  there are a lot of factors and variables involved  

[03:11] you need to account for all of those things and  it's very difficult to master however with player   props you're narrowing your focus down to just one  player's performance typically just on a single  

[03:23] key stat if you're comfortable enough to create  your own projections that's great but for a lot   of betters that might be beyond their skill level  or just too daunting to do for every player in a  

[03:35] league this is where the popularity of DFS plays  another key role because of DFS there are sites   that cater to projecting statistics for players  you can use their subject knowledge to help power  

[03:47] your betting for instance FanDuel is offering an  over under on the number of strikeouts by Tanner   Hal against the ray we could use a DFS helper site  like numberfire to look up their projection on Hal  

[03:59] for this game it's 5.65 seems like the over 5  1/2 might be a play however this is actually   the major flaw I warned you about at the top of  the video you see a DFS site is going to list  

[04:13] an average projection for a player this is called  the mean in statistical terms in DFS you get more   points the more strikeouts the pitcher accrues  so their average is important to you however a  

[04:25] sports book only cares about betters going over or  under their line they don't care by how much as a   result a sports book lists a median projection  for the line that's the point where 50% of the  

[04:37] results would be over and 50% would be under just  hang with me a little longer on this because the   payout for your future of betting props is huge if  player performance followed a normal distribution  

[04:50] the mean and the median would be similar however  in something like strikeouts it's not normally   distributed you can't go below zero strikeout and  the distribution tail to the positive side goes  

[05:03] out considerably longer this is called a right  skewed or positive skewed distribution the mean   or average is going to be higher than the median  in props with fewer trials and attempts this is  

[05:16] going to be a meaningful difference if you follow  these mean projections you would end up betting   more overs due to the mean projection being higher  than the median sports book line however you'll  

[05:29] actually on the wrong side of the bet in terms of  probability of it winning when it wins you may win   by a bigger margin but you'll win less frequently  than if you had used the median but this is why  

[05:41] so many people lose betting props don't bet the  mean you have to bet the median in order to find   the median you need to run the projection through  a simulation to produce the full distribution of  

[05:55] results for instance at unabated we have player  prop simulators built into our prop odd screen by   clicking one button I can simulate Tanner Hal's  performance 10,000 times and find the edge in  

[06:08] this market is actually on the under the median  being lower than the mean gives me a 2% Edge   against the underline at Sugarhouse Sportsbook in  fact we have these simulators for a wide range of  

[06:21] player props in MLB NFL college football NBA and  even WNBA you bring the projections and will help   help you simulate and find Value in the market  now speaking of projections that's really the  

[06:35] key here you're only as good as the projections  garbage in garbage out so to speak there are a lot   of projection sources out there on the internet  pretty much if you can export them from a website   as a CSV file we can import them into our prop odd  screen and run simulations for you the process for  

[06:53] beating props is nearly as simple as the process  we laid out for top- down bedding step one   you identify your source of Truth you find a  projection set you believe is sharp step two  

[07:06] you load that projection set into the prop odd  screen and simulate the player performance to   identify edges step three you shop for the best  price the prop betting Market is less efficient  

[07:18] than a major sports side or total Market as  a result you may see some eye popping edges   on the prop odd screen it's your projections  against the market and sometimes the market   Market disagrees you still need to respect the  market even when it's less than efficient be  

[07:36] careful with big edges you find on props back in  our video on building a bank roll I talked about   Kelly staking and using quarter Kelly due to  the uncertainty surrounding your Edge in sports   betting I'd advise that when betting props  you use a stake size you're comfortable with  

[07:53] but Kelly staking might not be the best way to go  also Sports books have a habit of not tolerating   betters who beat them on props so keep that  in mind as well when devising your stake size  

[08:05] feasting just on props is not a way to sustain  your account but we'll talk more about that in   a future video if you're interested in learning  more about betting props this way head on over   to unabated dot com we have a lower priced tier  that is designed just for the prop specialist  

[08:22] it includes the prop odd screen the simulators  and other tools to help you crush prop markets   DFS pick them sites like prize picks and Underdog  and even office pools or join me here for another  

[08:36] video like this one your journey to becoming  a sharper Sports better is going to continue