Data-Driven DFS Strategy — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:02] players based off of their gut feeling instead of using data. But what if I told you that there is a way that you can consistently beat prize picks and underdog using data? Today in this video, I'm going to go through my three

[00:16] favorite tools that I love to use on Odds Jam to cook up slips and consistently beat the books. Whether you're receiving that gimme pick over on Underdog or a boosted payout on DraftKings Pick Six, you'll have my

[00:30] exact process to copy and paste to start printing money on these books. Here's what most people get wrong about DFS platforms like Prize Picks and Underdog. game better than the sports books and predict what's going to happen or they

[00:45] just follow their favorite TV analyst and just copy that. But here's the thing. Books like Prize Picks Underdog and Better, they're fixed payout the over or the under, we're receiving

[00:58] the same payout. Just like here on Barkley, $25 wager pays us $150 on this three pick slip. Doesn't matter if we take his higher or is lower. It's the same. Same thing for Anthony Edwards or Zack Lavine. It does not matter what

[01:12] side we take, we receive the same payout. So the key here is that we're looking to find mispriced props where underdog has this one play priced differently compared to the rest of the sports betting market. That's where we

[01:26] can find a guaranteed edge. The first tool that I use that is critical for my DFS success is Odd Chance Fantasy Optimizer. There are a number of different books that they have available right here guys. Depending on where you

[01:38] live, you might have some multiple options in terms of books. Out here in Arizona, I have a plethora of different options from prize picks, underdog, check this out right here. Next, we are currently selected on better. When you

[01:51] click this drop down, odds jams already went through the trouble in computing the odds per play depending on the type of slip that you like to cook up. Fiveman picks with insurance are the best odds per play. And this is all

[02:05] based on your payout. So, when we come over here, we're looking at Keenan Allen is in green. This gives us our percentage of the chance that it has to hit. Well, as you can see on a fiveman entry, we're getting this at minus 116

[02:19] odds. All of the sports books here set their own odds or prices on their own. A sharp sports book like Pinnacle has this at minus $137. Pinnacle thinks that you need to pay $137 to receive a $100 payout. Well, over

[02:35] here on Better, we only have to put up $116 to receive that $100 payout. So this is a discount here. This is 21 cents in difference between meaning the price that Pinnacle has compared to better. This is a massive discount. This

[02:49] is a play that has a mathematical edge that we want to add to our slip. The key with DFS success isn't about being right more often. It's about finding spots you should based off the true probability. The EV tool works very

[03:05] difference here with the EV tool is that we have some couple extra levers that we can pull in terms of customization. So just like the optimizer are being recommended Keenan Allen over three and a half catches. All of these sports

[03:18] books when they set their odds they bake vig into these odds. And so in order to find out what the fair true price is, we need to remove the vig from the sports books. And that's where the first step with the EV tool is taken here where the

[03:32] fair value the true probability is about 54.9% which equates to minus21 spot five odds. Win percentage in odds are in a marriage together forever. So we're receiving odds of better at -16. This number is

[03:47] below the fair odds. That means this is a play that has just over a 2% edge that we want to add to our slip. Over here, you can use OddJam's recommended book weights, or you can pick certain sharp sports books that you want to drill down

[04:01] into. Maybe you believe that FanDal was really sharp on player props. Well, then you can get their opinions. For myself, I like to use Pinnacle, but I will switch it up from time to time to find some different options for my slips.

[04:14] Outside of that, I prefer to use worst case out of all the DVIG methods. This is the most conservative that's going to provide us in terms of an EV edge calculation. And then that's pretty much it. Everything else here is then just

[04:27] going to show these plays and I literally just go and take the top plays that are recommended to me over here and cook up a slip. So the tool does all the work for me. I don't have to drill down into stats and figure out the matchups

[04:40] the various different sports books to have this priced. Pinnacle is the most bullish on Danchenzo's over three and a half assist. They think this should be minus 144 for this play. We're getting this at a discount over at better. This

[04:54] play has almost a 3% [music] edge. I want to add this play to my slip. The where professional bettors are placing their wagers on two of the most popular exchanges in America, Novig and Profit X. There are no limits over at these

[05:08] exchanges. You can place a wager size for however much money that you prefer. And so if I go over to the most popular sports book in America, FanDal, and I want to place the under on Royce O'Neal's player made threes at the under

[05:22] two and a half, you can see that I can only place a max wager of $65. only place a max wager of $65. I cannot place this wager for $66. So over here on the sharp money tool, we can see that on this same exact play, a

[05:37] couple better bettors want to place this wager size for 26 or $2,800. So if I'm someone that has a bankroll in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, I don't go to FanDuel to place my bet because I can only wager $65. If I want

[05:53] to get down serious money, I go to the exchanges because there are no limits. This tool tracks the liquidity on betters that are placing large wager sizes on the exchanges. One of the sharpest sports books in the world,

[06:06] Pinnacle, is only accepting a max wager at the moment of $250. You can see two different individuals want this at either $2,600 or $2,800. to wager on a play, the more confidence that they have in it. And over here at

[06:20] that they have in it. And over here at FanDal, I can only wager $65 on this prop. How much confidence do you think that Pinnacle or FanDuel has compared to these two professional bettors over here? These betterers are placing 10 to

[06:34] 11 times the amount of money that Pinnacle is accepting on this prop. That provides me a lot of confidence because with this tool, they are offering you to bet the over 2 and 1/2 three-pointers made on Royce O'Neal at either plus 120

[06:48] made on Royce O'Neal at either plus 120 or plus 115. Well, we can bet the under 2 1/2 at minus 116. So, this provides me a lot of confidence when building my DFS slips. I want to go over to better or underdog and place this under because

[07:01] there's a couple of people out there that have significant wager sizes on these unders. When it comes to bending on player props, recreational sports books can only accept up to certain dollar sizes depending on the time in

[07:13] the day. Having access to the sharp money tool and seeing where some of the professional betterers are getting thousands of dollars down on these confidence and it makes life easy for me when I'm trying to cook up slips on

[07:26] prize picks and underdog. The key to DFS success isn't about luck. It's about having better information than everyone else. While other players are making picks based off of gut feelings or they're trying to predict what's going

[07:39] to happen, we're using the sports betting market as our guide. And the three tools that we just showcased in this video are going to lead you to this video are going to lead you to long-term success. Remember, these DFS

[07:51] Doesn't matter if you take the over or the under, it's the same exact payout. mispriced props in the sports betting market and play these on those DFS

[08:03] platforms. The fantasy optimizer shows you based on the book what type of slip that you're cooking up, what odds that you're receiving per pick. But what's the most optimal slips that you want to be creating based off the books that you

[08:16] have? Click this video on the screen where Alex Monahan breaks down the best slips to create based off of the sports books. Pair his video with this video and this will be your strategy guide to long-term profitable success.