Sharp Sports Betting Strategies — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:04] on prize picks, right? So now that's cool. Hopefully somebody put the link in the chat. Someone put the link in the chat. Yeah. Okay. So now let's see what chat. Yeah. Okay. So now let's see what else we have. Dude, Pam Bondi is

[00:23] lady. Um or however old she is. I don't know how old she is. But anyways, that's a random thought. You can see her on the top of my news feed. It I didn't just top of my news feed. It I didn't just say that out of the blue. I promise. Um,

[00:39] damn Pam, bro. She could get around the old men's circles. But let's see what else we can do. Man, we have another prize pick discount. Is there any other any other discounts I'm missing? I gave

[00:54] out DraftKings Pick Six has some like NHL discounts. I gave those out on more value, I'll give you guys another slip, but we'll have to see about that.

[01:06] slip, but we'll have to see about that. Oh, okay. So, we got to do we have to do What do we have to do, boys?

[01:27] What do we have to do, man? Sheesh. Um, what do we need to do? We got to keep going. Okay, we got to do this next discount. So, they had a discount on Seaquan. Um, are there any other No. Okay, so the

[01:41] next discount I'm going to go with is Seaquan. Okay, Squan rushing yards. So, we could just run the same two picks because they're plus EV. And it actually looks like we just had some other plays pop up. So, like Calvin Ridley,

[01:56] obviously, you know, this game's kind of far away, which some of you guys like to man, like I don't know when the good value is going to occur. And if you don't bet it now, don't expect it to be around tomorrow morning, right? You

[02:09] can't just bet on Sunday and expect to get in the good NFL bets. Man, last week get in the good NFL bets. Man, last week we got the Texans at plus 155 before the starting to rip towards them and some of these books were stale.

[02:23] We also got the Jets at plus 125 and then they ripped to being minus 125 favorites, but it didn't [ __ ] matter because they literally looked horrible. Dude, I hate the Jets. I don't even understand how the Jets are that bad.

[02:36] How do you get blown out by the Cowboys, man? Anyways, here we go. Okay, so I'm just going to run more crossed markets, right? Profitex very sharp betting exchange. You got trading firms, hedge funds setting lines

[02:50] offering liquidity. Higher liquidity means, you know, the bet is better. confidence in your edge. For player props, you don't care like lower liquidity compared to mainline markets. NFL money lines. I mean, there were

[03:05] plays on the sharp money tool, the cross market EV tool that had like $30,000 in liquidity, especially when lines were ripping towards the Jets. They literally went from plus 125 underdogs to minus 125 favorites. I thought I had the best

[03:19] played like absolute dog [ __ ] But hey, that's just how it goes, right? Um, anyways, here's the play. I can't believe Mahomes threw a pick Um, anyways, here we go. Yo, so this plays a

[03:35] complain, "Oh man, what book do we want to look at next though? Why you run the same pick?" Because there's not that many picks with value. Prize picks has 10,000 lines up at any given time. We're trying to zone in on the rare few bets

[03:48] that truly actually have an edge. Prize picks for a five pick flex play is minus picks for a five pick flex play is minus 119 implied odds, right? So Profitex, you know, has Evan Ingram's under at plus 125. So that is a cross market.

[04:02] That is arbitrage. If somebody is offering his under at plus 125, they want to bet the over. They're offering the under at plus 125. Underdog odds. So outcome. Prize picks is a fixed payout book. Someone's offering the under at

[04:16] plus 125. They want to bet the over at minus 125. And we're getting minus19 in super sharp trading firms. So we're basically copying the trades, the markets of these quant funds and getting

[04:30] better odds. Essentially what you're doing when you're cross market betting. I've made some YouTube tutorials on it. You should check it out. Damn, this uh Calvin Ridley play actually just got better. Now you can see it's plus 129.

[04:42] But anyways, did I lock this in? Yes, I did. Yo, I locked it in. Quinn Prester. Dude, I don't know why that name sounds [ __ ] like a [ __ ] Anyways, so I'm done for the day on prize picks. They only let me bet five

[04:56] slips a day, which is pretty stupid, but kind of is what it is. Max amount reached. You could also I was going to say you could run these three NFL plays just as a threeman. All of them are really good, but it's kind of

[05:11] up to you. Kind of up to you. Um, anyways, what do we want to look at? FanDuel better underdog fantasy flip rebet. I have so many sports books in Virginia, dude. Look at all these books in Virginia, man. It's crazy. Oh [ __ ]

[05:25] in Virginia, man. It's crazy. Oh [ __ ] Panthers money line. So here you have $3,000 in liquidity. Again, for mainline markets like money

[05:40] lines, I want to see higher liquidity. Again, you can customize liquidity like on the cross market tool, but shut up, Alex. Just get some bets locked in. Yo, so I'm running Panthers plus 165. Again, this is arbitrage to Novig. Novig's a

[05:54] super sharp book. We bet this on the previous live stream at plus 100. Now it's minus 110 and still looks good. RJ Harvey under two and a half receptions. [ __ ] Bill Cosby ass name, bro. Anyways, where's this Panthers game?

[06:18] Anyways, they did a great play, but where did it go? Oh, I got a refresh. So, a lot of liquidity being offered on the Cowboys at minus 162, which means people want to bet, right? That's not your neighbor setting lines on Profitex,

[06:34] which means people want to bet the Panthers at plus 162 and we're getting plus 165. And you can see here if you look at like FanDuel and Pinnacle, Pinnacle is known to be the sharpest book. They already have $10,000 betting

[06:47] limits. Bottom right corner, see my arrow, they have $10,000 betting limits. arrow, they have $10,000 betting limits. Their market is plus 148 minus 169. So if you devig the market, if you remove the juice, right, the true line with the

[07:00] in sports betting, no vague odds calculator. You should you should read it. I should write a [ __ ] book about it, bro. But anyways, the fair line with the vig removed would be plus 155. We're getting above fair value, plus 165,

[07:14] which is why this bet is plus EV. And guess what? They just moved it to plus 145. The bet was too sharp. The bet was too [ __ ] sharp, bro. Yo, let's go Blue Jays. I want to see sweeps. Anyways, is anyone

[07:30] scoring in this game? Um, let's see. Nope. Jack Flattery, you suck, bro. Anyways, let's see what we got.

[07:47] Oh [ __ ] So, sometimes this happens on Fliff. Dumb. Yes, he is. is sometimes they adjust the money line, but they forget to adjust the spread. So, I'll try to give you guys more time

[08:00] to bet it this time. Is Panthers plus three and a half. Oh man, Dak looks baked into the market. That's priced in. That is a dumbass reason to place a bet. That is a dumbass reason to bet on the Cowboys. Anyways, no. And they just

[08:17] bumped it. Speak of the devil. I lied. Oh, shoot. So, um I don't remember what I was talking about. You guys are distracting me. What were we talking about?

[08:31] What? I did the sleeper promos on the previous live stream. I think I did at least. Maybe they added some new ones. I'm not sure. So, they have a 25% MLB profit boost. So, I'll give out a play for this college one because again, I

[08:47] already ran the They had some discounts for tonight. Oh [ __ ] Browns over. This is actually a pretty solid play. Again, Sleeper puts their

[09:00] odds in decimal format. You can see they have Browns over. If you look at my have Browns over. If you look at my phone as a 1.74x payout, I don't know why they put their odds in decimal format. Shut the [ __ ] up, dude.

[09:21] time. Well, let's see. Nah, never mind. That just took two seconds. They just wanted to verify my name. They just wanted to verify my name. So, here's the play on Sleeper.

[09:36] Again, I don't know why, dude. Sleeper puts their odds in decimal format. It's probably to confuse people if I had to guess because again, Sleeper charges a lot of juice. A lot of juice. A lot of juice, man. 57 cents of juice on an NFL

[09:51] passing yards line. 57 cent spread. That's crazy, bro. If you look at FanDuel, guess how much juice they're charging? Not 57 cents, 28 cents. I don't give out a ton of bets on like Twitter and stuff for Sleeper because

[10:09] they're making so much juice into their market. Um, but anyways, what were we talking about? I remember, man. We are so caught up with some bits. We were so caught up with our bits. What do we want to do,

[10:23] dude? Colts, bro. Why does there have to be so much value, man? Yo,

[10:36] of all these. Oh my gosh. Hockey back. There's already arbitrage bets coming up. Oh my gosh. Um, let me get rid of Hard Rock and Bet Um, let me get rid of Hard Rock and Bet MGM for a sec. Where is this

[10:50] date range? What am I doing wrong? Where the [ __ ] is the NFL, bro? Oh, that would be a low. Anyways, check this out. Right. Where are you?

[11:04] This looks really solid. FanDuel is the only book with the Cardinals favored to only book with the Cardinals favored to cover the spread.

[11:16] Cardinals favored to cover the spread, right? You look at Pinnacle already $10,000 betting limits. Higher betting limits means higher liquidity, right? More efficient betting market. Look up Pinnacle. Is Pinnacle sharp? Yeah, it

[11:30] is. You should look it up. Don't trust me. You can trust Chat TPT. I don't really give a [ __ ] dude. But um you can see Pinnacle. This is a locked market. One of those two bets has to be profitable. Cardinals plus 6 and a half

[11:42] profitable. Cardinals plus 6 and a half plus 105 or Colts - 6 and a half minus 105. And this line makes sense to me. Like I mean again it's also again a locked market with no vig. Very sharp book so that's kind of nice. Where is

[11:58] book so that's kind of nice. Where is profitex? I bet on the Colts? 2500 or five grand? I don't know dude. My life is hard sometimes thinking through these deep subjects.

[12:13] Um right. So now it's actually arbitrage. And again, with every arbitrage opportunity, you know, one of the two plays has to be plus EV, right? If you can literally bet on both outcomes and guarantee a profit, one of

[12:26] the two bets is plus EV. You know what I mean? Yeah. Yeah, I do, Alex. I love mean? Yeah. Yeah, I do, Alex. I love you. Um, what do we want to do? Why is there so many bets available? It's literally a Tuesday night. Are you

[12:40] back to FanDuel. They've already bumped the odds. I'm too good at this [ __ ] Anyways, they already bumped that. Sorry guys. in. They bumped that on me. What the [ __ ] dude? And now it's a massive Now

[12:55] [ __ ] dude? And now it's a massive Now they're just being stupid. You're dumb. Yo, so check this out. I think they over adjusted. Did they? And we could have Anyways, um

[13:15] to show you. Yo, what are the best dabble shields? shields. Who's in the chat? Who's got the best dabble shields? So, Evan Ingram play. It's also available here. Dude, what is going on?

[13:31] what is going on? And they bumped it. Never mind. What are the best dabble shields? Does anyone know?

[13:44] I think earlier it was judge HRRS. So, what's very interesting about this So, what's very interesting about this sports book dabble

[13:56] in these shields correctly. Like it's honestly ridiculous. Like on prize picks, if you start including, right, goblins, they reduce your payout because they're supposed to be the easier wins,

[14:10] they're supposed to be the easier wins, right? They go from 6x to 4.75x. In this specific example, um on Dabble, sometimes they like glitch um on Dabble, sometimes they like glitch out and forget to do it. So 6x to 4.75x.

[14:23] Here on Dabble, it says it's going to reduce our payout by.9x, but guess what? I don't think they're going to do it. I don't think they're gonna do it. Yo, here. Oh, [ __ ] Here's another cross

[14:35] here. Oh, [ __ ] Here's another cross market. Just showed up. Carlos Vonce under four and a half hits allowed. So, that's for the same game. So, this is a very fun [ __ ] for tonight. Again, he's going to be on a super short leash,

[14:47] right? Yankees down 20. He's probably not going to pitch. I mean, I'm actually curious what is his outline. Yo, but regardless, this is a slip. So sports book. You take his over under. So his outline is 14 and a half. You can

[15:04] see every sports book, no viger tight market, right? All these books have his under four and a half hits allowed. Heavily favored 6x payout. Not really much correlate. I mean, there's really no correlation between

[15:18] those two. Maybe you could make the argument if Judge if the Yankees are up like 100, they may pitch him longer to save the bullpen. save the bullpen. Maybe a smidge.

[15:36] shield by quite a bit. Yo, guys, sorry. I gave you guys the wrong shield. I gave you guys the wrong shield. No, NO. YO, I GAVE YOU GUYS the wrong

[15:48] NO. YO, I GAVE YOU GUYS the wrong shield. Give me a sec. Yo, so what I'm going to do is I'm going to remove this. Someone said Jazz Chisum HRR is the best shield. So the best spot where they are not pricing it in

[16:00] where they are not pricing it in correctly. So we have Jazz Chisum and then there's just some beautiful value. So typically what I do on Dabble, I've made too much money. So you'll notice they like, you know, they limit me to

[16:14] like $10 a slip, which is absolute [ __ ] But that's okay, right? Life goes on. Life goes on. Unfortunately, goes on. Life goes on. Unfortunately, life goes on. Life goes on. Where are

[16:28] life goes on. Life goes on. Where are you? So, we have Lean Williams. So, here we have a line discrepancy, but basically you can just play slightly different picks and just kind of like get around

[16:40] you can get around your max betting limit. So, if you look at Lehan Williams, they have his line at 63 and a half. All these other books are opening him. You know, Fliff actually has him, they not only have the line lower, they

[16:53] have the under juiced. And then you can just see like, you know, FanDuel has his just see like, you know, FanDuel has his line way lower. anyways, what do we want to do? When does this

[17:08] Yankees game start? Bro, I got to go to the gym. No, you don't. Yes, I do. How many miles am I going to run today? 14, 20, 34? Oh my gosh, this is a crazy good 20, 34? Oh my gosh, this is a crazy good play on FanDuel. Yo, plus 120 UFC fight.

[17:23] usually more reliable for giving me decent betting limits. They're I'm max money on them. But check this play out. You got a cross market,

[17:35] right? A [ __ ] ton of liquidity on this random UFC fight. This random UFC fight is actually tonight. So, we actually have a sweat for tonight, which is kind have a sweat for tonight, which is kind of nice.

[17:52] is an example of arbitrage. I could literally bet the fight to go the distance on FanDuel. You know, however much I want to, however much you can. I could hedge bet on it to not go the distance on Novig, a peer-to-peer

[18:06] betting exchange. Um, that in general is money EV betting, but you want to bet into lower liquidity markets. One thing have very tight competitive prices. So,

[18:20] also if you just want to like blindly bet on your favorite team, Novig is probably the best book. I mean, almost certainly like

[18:32] I can kind of show you. I'm pretty sure I'm right. I mean, Novig and Profitex, right? Like I mean, literally four cents of juice on Novig. So, if you just blindly want to bet on your favorite team or whatever, Novig is probably the

[18:46] best bet the the best book you could use if you just want to because again, they just have such tight prices. You don't want to bet such tight prices. You don't want to bet on Sleeper Circa even 17 cents a 4x what

[18:59] Novig is. These peer-to-peer betting sites have pretty competitive prices. But anyways, that was a crazy good play off the odds jam sharp money tool. We haven't done any any hard rock. Everyone always wants my hard rock plays. I'm

[19:12] very good at it. It's a very beatable sports book. Unfortunately, they just like give me jack [ __ ] betting limits. I made too much money on them. But it's the only book available in Florida. So, I'll just rip through some plays.

[19:27] I'll just rip through some plays. Yo, this play's crazy good. Yo, Pinnacle only has this plus 118 minus 215. So, it's clearly plus EV relative to Pinnacle's market. This is Rzzi versus Clarinet to Thompson.

[19:45] Here they give me $35. Again, on mainline markets, typically they give me higher betting limits, but you can see not only is this arbitrage to profitex, Hard Rock is probably the most beatable book in the world. Not only is it

[19:58] arbitrage to profitex and novig if you look at the other sharp books for example pinnacle bet online most important calculator in sports betting a dvig calculator and no vig calculator pinnacle's market was minus plus 189

[20:12] minus 215 so if you devig the market the true line would be plus 197 we just got plus 290 or what am I saying we got plus 210 I APOLOGIZE WE GOT PLUS 210 on hard

[20:26] rock Right. Above fair value, above plus 197. So this bet is plus EV. RJ Harvey. Bro, why does that name remind me of [ __ ] Bill Cosby, dude? I remind me of [ __ ] Bill Cosby, dude? I don't know. They kind of [ __ ] Anyways,

[20:41] don't know. They kind of [ __ ] Anyways, um this over again. I literally just Hard Rock is such a beatable book. Whenever you have arbitrage, whenever there is arbitrage, now the total is minus

[20:56] Anyways, I thought it ticked. It didn't tick. But whenever you have arbitrage, like what's amazing is you have such a high high. Like, you know, being high as [ __ ] and you just watch forensic files. I don't know [ __ ] about that, bro. But

[21:09] what I was going to say is whenever you have arbitrage, you know, one of the two bets has to be a plus EV bet. If you can play both outcomes and guarantee a risk-free profit, one side of the ARB has to be profitable. in 99.9% of the

[21:24] time between FanDuel and a liquid a highly liquid Novig very sharp peer-to-p know like the value is going to be on the stupid book the soft book so whenever FanDuel is arbitrage to circa the value's on in general FanDuel hard

[21:40] rock and circa hard rock you know you get the point done the discounts Obviously, there's a little more value.

[21:56] There's probably some value on bet MGM. Whatever. Underdog better really aren't previous live stream. So, you know, Panthers plus three and a half as a cross market, but

[22:12] let's see. Let's see if they take it. So, again, just pretty shitty betting limits. Um, but regardless, some college football plays, but not a ton right now. Anyways,

[22:27] boys. Hopefully, you enjoyed this stream. Hopefully, we make some money and um yeah, have a great rest of your day. Enjoy the Yankees game. Let's go.