Sharp Betting Strategies — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:42] >> Oh, boys. What is up, guys? How's everyone doing? Happy Friday. Friday. Woohoo. So, we got a 40% profit boost on

[00:56] PrizePicks. We got some discounts on Sleeper, and we are going to be ripping some bets. So, let's get into it. What book do you we want to start out on? Maybe let's do PrizePicks first. There was also some pretty good value on Pick

[01:11] >> At least when I looked earlier, I got a big [ __ ] bet locked in, bruh. >> [snorts] >> And damn, this play on Donovan Clingan is still available. This play looks really good crossed market, but we'll

[01:25] we'll we'll we'll we'll do Pick 6 in a second here. So, let's get rolling. What book do we want to start out on? Maybe let's do the Sleeper discount real quick. I'm just going to be ripping through a bunch of bets.

[01:39] through a bunch of bets. So, the best play we have is Sandro. Um over 20 and 1/2 PRA, sure, whatever. We can go with it. Again, Sleeper like I say it all the time, so I don't want to bore you guys to death.

[01:54] sports book in general. They just charge a lot of juice. I mean, like that's a kind of crazy spread. 59 cent spread on a you know, assist line is kind of

[02:06] ridiculous, but that's just the way it is. But let's see what we can do on is. But let's see what we can do on PrizePicks for um Flex Friday. Oh, [ __ ] Cuz it looks like there's some pretty good value.

[02:29] a five-man or do we want to do a six-man? So, I'm going to start out with Quinten Post under 1 and 1/2 assists. Yo, how's the stream quality? Yo, what's up, Cozy Trashfire?

[02:43] Can you look at sharp money non-DFS? Yo, we're rolling. Okay, first play we're going to go with is Quinten Post under 1 and 1/2 assists. I mean, you can see it's really good value. Like there's [ __ ] $6,000 of

[02:57] liquidity on his over at plus 119. His over's offered at plus 119. That means the sharp money tool. So, this is the first play we're going to go with, and that we can lock in. So, this play, dude, I don't even

[03:12] So, this play, dude, I don't even understand. Carrington under 23 PRAs. I don't see him. That's probably cuz he's bub. No, it looks like they just straight up removed Carrington. I don't know why.

[03:24] Green. This looks good. You don't just have to look at the you know, betting exchanges. All these sports books, every data point we have in the market, all favored. Although, that's not a great play to

[03:38] Although, that's not a great play to pair with Quinten Post. Dude, what am I doing? So, Al Horford under 1 and 1/2 assists. Well, I don't want to take that as well. Um so, let's run this play.

[03:53] >> I'm going to do a five-pick entry or a six-pick entry. I'm not sure yet. Let's fade Maxey. [ __ ] it. I like it. All unders. Value's usually on the unders cuz all the degenerates just bet the over. So, we have Maxey under 34 and 1/2

[04:07] PAs, points plus assists. So, I got three picks so far. we can go with. So, we have Williams under 10 and 1/2 PRAs. Sheesh. So, let's

[04:22] under 10 and 1/2 PRAs. Sheesh. So, let's go here. possible. Eh.

[04:34] over, which is Rico. Over 11 and 1/2 or sorry, it's over 11 >> [sighs] >> Where is that? Here it is. Okay, so we at the slip. I don't really have a problem with this. Okay, it looks pretty

[04:50] good. Yo, five-pick flex play. One over in the NFL, and then we have a [ __ ] ton of unders. So, Flex Friday, 40% profit boost. Get [snorts] it locked in. boost. Get [snorts] it locked in. Sheesh.

[05:07] That'd be cool. Really cool. >> [snorts] >> 1 2 3 4 5. Okay, let's go.

[05:26] one Sleeper play so far. Just one of the discounts. Do they have other discounts? Damn, bro. They have a lot of discounts. So, they have a pretty good discount on 70 stream streak, Alex. That's [ __ ] crazy.

[05:40] Yo, so we're going to run Jimmy. Usually I like to make sure the discount is actually halfway decent before I, you know, automatically bet it cuz sometimes Sleeper has trash promos. So, let's see here. We got Jimmy Butler.

[05:56] This is just the OddsJam sports book screen. I mean, yeah, every book has his line at 20 and 1/2, so this seems decent. Let me go here, and let's see what else we want to pair with. Oh, [ __ ] This play I kind of like.

[06:08] [ __ ] This play I kind of like. Yo, so let's fade Maxey once again. Yo, so let's fade Maxey once again. Again, Sleeper's a weird book. 1.78x payout on his under, which is the same as minus 128 odds. Just means betting

[06:21] as minus 128 odds. Just means betting 100 to win 178, 78 in profit. Um I don't know. They put their odds in decimal format, but let's uh let's see what other books we got going on here.

[06:35] got going on here. So, let's see what we got on Better. So, let's see what we got on Better. Damn, bro. Better is always popping. Paul's app. Kelly Oubre. He has a really low points

[06:48] 8 and 1/2 points. Dude, Better has ridiculous value right now. So, let's see if we can do a Better slip.

[07:05] Again, I use a bunch of these DFS apps, PrizePicks, you know, Underdog, Better, whatever. Like, you know, sometimes DraftKings has better value Pick 6 or But [snorts] let's get rolling. So, the first play we're going to go

[07:18] with, heavy liquidity. And did it log me out? Bro, why is this app always logging me out? Sorry, guys. Anyways, be ready to tail. I'm going to

[07:32] Anyways, be ready to tail. I'm going to give out a slip super quick. There we go. Damn. So, the first play. And let me just refresh this. Let's get

[07:47] going. Go, [ __ ] So, the first play we're going to go with, I don't get discounts on Better, is going to be Kelly Oubre under 8 and 1/2 points. 3 2. What happened to Kelly Oubre, bro?

[08:02] Which is the best book? Underdog, PrizePicks, or Dabble? Um I think the easiest one to make money off of is probably Dabble. Unfortunately, I got banned on Dabble. But this play looks great. Kelly Oubre.

[08:18] He's a heavy underdog to go over. You know, Better, PrizePicks, Pick 6, all >> [snorts] >> So, we want to be on his under. But let's just keep this rolling. Um when you go through the math behind

[08:32] Better, you will see for yourself six-pick entries are mathematically optimal. So, optimal. So, let's see what we can do. Clingan.

[08:46] I'm already fading Clingan on DraftKings Pick 6, but I guess we can run it again. Pick 6, but I guess we can run it again. I don't really have a problem with that.

[09:07] longest reception. Again, sometimes the value is in weird weird markets. There is so much value on Better. I don't even know what to go on Better. I don't even know what to go with.

[09:22] I'm trying to move fast. So, we got Curry under 29 and 1/2 points. That seems free. Let's take a look. Make sure they didn't bump anything. it locked in if you guys want to play it. Five-pick flex play. You know,

[09:35] it. Five-pick flex play. You know, that's like the optimal slip type on on Better picks. So, this looks good. >> [snorts] >> [snorts] >> Let's go, [ __ ] And let's run it.

[09:47] Oh, man. I don't know why they do this when I'm streaming. It's sometimes a pain in the ass. Come on. So, there we go. I got it Come on. So, there we go. I got it locked in. Yo, link, link, link.

[10:00] Thank you, Davis Kelly. Underdog, underdog, underdog. People want underdog. People want pick six. People want a lot of sports books. So, sheesh. So, let's see what we got. So, we have a

[10:15] 30% college football boost. We got a 30% NFL boost. six. >> [snorts] >> [snorts] >> Who are we betting on tonight?

[10:50] could also do, again, I already ran Klingan, but you could run this, and you get some nice correlation on this as well. I mean, obviously, they have some discounts like Amen Thompson, you can

[11:03] just take him 16 and a half for the promo, but whatever. promo, but whatever. Um little bit of positive correlation. If Thompson goes over 18 and a half

[11:18] points, Jabari Smith on the same team, he's more likely to go under. can see here, Thompson, I mean, every sports book, all these market data

[11:32] points, FanDuel, Circa, like Circa's a really sharp book. All these books have Thompson's over. I mean, Circa minus 150, 1.5 to 1 betting favorite to go over heavily favored. So, this seems solid. Um so, we could just run a little

[11:48] simple three-man, take the bet. And they're not even going to let me do it because I already ran Klingan. [ __ ] me. Um so, I'll need a replacement slip. I mean, maybe you guys can't see my Or you

[12:01] that. So, they're not going to let me re-bet on it, you little [ __ ] So, [sighs] >> What do I want to do? >> What do I want to do? Let's go to pick six.

[12:26] I mean, sharp. Over 26 and a half PRAs. Yo, so check this out. I mean, his line's 27 and a half on PrizePicks. So, what we could do is just this. I mean, I got to replace Klingan, so

[12:40] over 26 and a half PRAs. All the other books have his line higher. It looks like it's pretty solid. >> [snorts]

[12:58] V.J. Edgecombe under 24 and a half PRAs. So, maybe let's run this. Honestly, sorry. I got to stop being indecisive. Or you can throw in a discount. I don't even know why I'm talking about this [ __ ] So,

[13:10] Go, [ __ ] Let's go. And let me put the link in the Let's go. And let me put the link in the chat real quickly. Links coming, boys.

[13:22] discount. Again, I'm just being a little lazy. The Klingan play was under 24 and a half PRAs, but the Edgecombe play I actually kind of like better. actually kind of like better. I mean he's a huge favorite to go under.

[13:44] I kind of wish I had more money in my DraftKings now. locked in. I guess I still have 36 bucks left. I guess I still have 36 bucks left. >> [snorts]

[14:00] >> [snorts] >> Um look at? What do we want to do? What do we want What do we want to do? What do we want to look at?

[14:31] who do you guys think is winning? Who's winning tonight? Who's winning tonight? >> [snorts] >> What are the odds? I don't even know, man. Let's pull it up.

[14:44] >> [snorts] >> versus Oregon. This [ __ ] huge game. >> versus Oregon. This [ __ ] huge game. Okay, so Indiana's minus 150-ish. to be a good game. Yesterday was obviously a really [ __ ] good game.

[14:59] Um but let's see what we can do. So, I think most people are just asking for underdog, so we can try to do some underdog real quickly. I already got a better slip locked in, so I'm done for

[15:11] the day on that shitty ass app. But maybe we can do an underdog play. Why is this app always logging me out, bro?

[15:29] Hutchinson under one and a half receptions. Again, underdog. All these books, you want to know the optimal slip type. type. Underdog fantasy at six mans.

[15:44] So, let's go here. And let's go here. And let's go here. And let's go here.

[15:57] So, I may try to actually bet a little more on this [ __ ] They're not really bumping today, which is kind of nice. Okay, so I put another two grand in my DraftKings on my phone. Sorry.

[16:12] And now I want to slam it if they let me. Nah, they're only going to give me 839 more. Still, it's beautiful. I love it. Let's run it. Okay, [snorts] so we got some What the [ __ ]

[16:26] some What the [ __ ] What? The multiplier has up for your pick set has changed to 5.8x. 5.8x, I mean, I guess they're dinging you a like a little bit for the correlation,

[16:41] like a little bit for the correlation, but that's not the end of the world. >> [snorts] >> Um

[16:58] Underdog. Sorry, I got distracted. So, we have Hutchinson under one and a half guess we're going to be fading the [ __ ] out of Kelly Oubre. We're already on his under in points. Now, we're going to add his under in PRAs.

[17:12] Again, I'm a data-driven sport Oh my gosh. gosh. Honestly

[17:29] I'm just worried this play on Carrington is going to get bumped. Let me make sure people can see my screen. You definitely can see my Carrington's going to get bumped. I mean, this is a crazy edge. He's

[17:42] literally a plus 156 offered all the way up to plus one He's a huge underdog to go over 11 and a half points. I don't know if some lineup news just came out. >> Um cuz that's a little crazy, but whatever.

[17:56] So, I'm just going to run a three-man, 6x payout. and Polymarket compared to other books? Great question.

[18:08] >> [snorts] >> I think once you include fees, I don't think Polymarket really charges fees. Obviously you know, they do on Kalshi. So, like, what is the line on Kalshi? I mean, here

[18:22] it's like Kalshi's pretty not good, right? Like, 35 cents of juice here. I mean, a [ __ ] ton of liquidity, but the market is extremely wide. I don't know where Polymarket is, if I

[18:35] felt they're dead out or something, but like no vig in general, if you just want to bet on money lines and get the best price, in general, no vig has like extremely tight markets. So, I'd recommend that. But regardless.

[18:53] happened? Did you take my bet or not? Did they take my bet? What are you doing, underdog? They did. Yo, so they took the bet. Three-pick entry. Again, that play on Carrington is ridiculously good.

[19:07] Can you show us how to profit from Kalshi and Polymarket? I mean, people arbitrage bet. Live value is kind of nice on Kalshi for those who use it. I've been slamming Dabble all day long.

[19:23] I've been slamming Dabble all day long. If anyone wants to tail. Davis Kelly. Caleb discount since Vucevic didn't play last night?

[19:41] PrizePicks? >> [snorts] >> I feel like a lot of times PrizePicks doesn't let me cash out, but yesterday I gave out the play like PrizePicks has a discount on Caleb Williams like a free

[19:54] square, just half of a passing yard, but square, just half of a passing yard, but let's see here. Slide for a refund. So, I guess you could cash out. If you wanted to, you

[20:08] could cash out of the Caleb discount and we can find something new to run. >> [snorts] >> Um Pick 6 is useless for college basketball just because they like they give you different payouts depending on

[20:20] the sport and unfortunately, yeah, their payouts are [ __ ] horrible uh uh college basketball. to run Al Horford under 1 and 1/2 assists. This looks great, right? He's

[20:36] literally a plus 130 underdog to go over. So, his under is the more likely the favorite outcome. DFS DFS DFS Damn, man. I'm an idiot. PrizePicks actually had Oubre's line

[20:51] even better at 14 and we took his under 13 and 1/2. PrizePicks is slipping, bro. >> [snorts] >> Um

[21:03] slip real quick. So, if you wanted a different option, right? No. And they bumped Ziaire Williams as well. [ __ ] dude. Give me a sec. Sorry, I'm didn't realize Vucevic didn't play yesterday, so it probably makes sense to

[21:18] yesterday, so it probably makes sense to just cash out our our slip. just cash out our our slip. Um little bit too soon. They start at 4:00, so let's see if we

[21:31] They start at 4:00, so let's see if we can find something new.

[22:00] So, like here's another option. Again, you didn't have to cash out. Obviously, whatever the [ __ ] you pair with this Caleb discount is going to be a profitable bet. It's a free square. But, someone linked this. I mean, if you

[22:12] wanted a different option, just kind of, you know, kind of go with. That looks beautiful. This play on Al Horford looks really This play on Al Horford looks really solid.

[22:27] PrizePicks play, okay? Three pick entry. >> [snorts] don't know if you guys can see my screen. There we go.

[22:44] sorry. I didn't realize I didn't realize they did that yesterday. What are they doing, bro?

[23:07] has occurred. Okay, now it should work. Let's go, bro. Okay, now it's submitted. Is there anything else that we're in love with? Let's see. Thank you, Delgado. Any sleeper value, bro? Please.

[23:20] you guys want another sleeper play, I got one for you. Give me a sec. got one for you. Give me a sec. So, where is sleeper? [ __ ] man.

[23:33] mean, they usually run pretty good discounts.

[23:53] Let's see. What did I miss on sleeper? They have an NBA boost and NFL boost. The NFL boost I can save till tomorrow. Um However, the Jacobs discount obviously looks good. We want to take advantage of

[24:06] it, so let's see. So, we could fade Maxey again. Granted, we already kind of did that in our better slip. So, maybe let's just run better slip. So, maybe let's just run Mark Williams over 20 and 1/2 PRAs.

[24:20] That seems great. In the next game. Jacobs discount. I mean, some of these I just don't want to forget to use.

[24:37] DraftKings, better. All these [ __ ] books, bro. You can make a lot of money literally just playing promos. These books are in, you know, a war to try to get customers, so they're all running these promos

[24:51] 24/7, it seems like. And some of them are really lucrative. There's obviously shitty promos. Sleeper will try to trick you. Like look at this guy. What's his you. Like look at this guy. What's his name?

[25:07] half passing yards. I bet that's I could be wrong, but I bet that's not even a good line. Damn, this game is 27 minutes away. So, if we look here, passing yards, I assume this play on Moore is horrible. So, let me just pull up the

[25:20] OddsJam screen. No, this is actually really good. His line is 229 half, 234 to check [ __ ] Yo, his line is like 240 half on some of these books. So, yo, this sleeper like boost is actually very solid. I'm glad I

[25:36] boost is actually very solid. I'm glad I checked.

[25:48] is just run John Collins John Collins um with the Dontae Moore promo. But, anyways, enjoy the game, boys. I think I'm going to bet uh

[26:01] I think I'm going to bet on Oregon, but we'll see. But, anyways, appreciate we'll see. But, anyways, appreciate everyone who joined.