Sharp Sports Betting Strategies — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:39] Yo, what's up, guys? How's everyone doing? Happy um Happy first day of the NBA season. I said that on the previous stream, but it still holds, dude. We got the first game. We got Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

[00:53] game. We got Shai Gilgeous-Alexander NBA Finals MVP. Anyways, hopefully we get some good games tonight, but regardless, quick stream. What's up, guys? How's everyone doing? Sleeper, sleeper,

[01:06] everyone doing? Sleeper, sleeper, sleeper. sleeper working. KD taco, let's get stuff going. So, let's see what we can put together. Maybe we start out on PrizePicks.

[01:21] Maybe we start out on PrizePicks. Let's see what we can do. Um so, the second taco is on Kevin Durant, newly a Houston Rocket. Um this Michael Porter play, dude, it's been available forever. There's so much

[01:36] value on PrizePicks today, it's like it's crazy. Again, PrizePicks usually sets their lines to be roughly 50/50. If you go through the math behind PrizePicks, I mean, literally profitable betting on PrizePicks,

[01:49] betting on PrizePicks, it just means you're winning over 55% of your over/unders, right? That's all it means. You got to win 55% of your over/unders. Higher is obviously better, but let's see what we can do here.

[02:04] So, what is KD? Is this actually a good discount? So, FanDuel, you know, he's a minus 200 favorite. So, somewhere around 2/3, minus 200 to the one betting favorite, 2/3 favorite to go over. So, obviously, this is a really good

[02:19] discount. So, what do we want to do, boys? What's up, guys? Alex, I'm so locked in. I love you.

[02:32] [ __ ] all these girls, bro. Just keep gaming. What are we talking about? with What do we think about fading Austin Reaves? Just like fully fading

[02:44] Austin Reaves. What he has a pretty high assist line. Five and a half assists, I mean Seems a little crazy. Austin Reaves is five and a half assists. Do we like the under?

[02:59] Yo, you guys like Reaves under five and a half assists? There's some really good value available. So, again, PrizePicks is a fixed payout sports book. Like you take Reaves over, you take him under, you're getting a 6X payout in your three

[03:12] regardless. So, obviously, if his over is being offered at plus 122 and plus 119 on the super

[03:24] sharp exchanges, we want to be on his under. But are there any plays for today? I mean, the Shai play is good, but we're already kind of on Shai. Yo, you guys want to do a five-man or what? Dude, there's a lot of stuff, man.

[03:39] There's a lot of stuff available, man. There's a lot of stuff available. What do we think about Josh Hart under in points plus assists? This Michael Porter play we've already run. Rudy Gobert, I apologize. I'm an idiot. It

[03:53] was under 11 and 1/2 points. And honestly, dude, I'm just going to run the three man. Uh better recently improved. So, better Uh better recently improved. So, better picks Jake Paul's app.

[04:05] I want to do a five man. Well, if you want to do a five man, you can do a five man. Slightly better in terms of the EV. I mean, Shay Shay over in steals, Adrian Kempe over in shots on goal. I mean,

[04:18] there are some good plays, dude. Maybe we do do a five man. Listen, I hear your demands. We can do a five man if that's what if that's what the world wants. So, let's see what we can put together.

[04:33] So, here would be a five man. Yo, can somebody please drop the link in the chat? Corey Kispert, we're fading like every Wizard, which is every Wizard, which is a little sad because that's my team, but

[04:46] a little sad because that's my team, but I don't really care. Yo, you guys want to do some Underdog Fantasy? Yo, listen, some people in the chat were saying that

[05:01] some people in the chat were saying that Underdog is giving unlimited 30% profit boost today. Again, there's a lot of dumb people in this live stream chat. So, you may not want to believe them, but

[05:17] that's at least word on the street. Yo, thanks to the guy who just texted me the shields. Anyways, let me get this locked in. So, this would be a five pick entry on PrizePicks.

[05:29] Anyone want to put the link in the chat? I got the unlimited 30% boost today. Yo, listen, if you got the uh if you got unlimited 30% boost on Underdog today, you're probably a horrible sports better. It is a good

[05:42] thing you found me, man. How are you getting unlimited 30% profit boost? Some of you guys must not be listening to the amazing advice that I give out on a daily basis. Some of you guys, but some of you guys

[05:56] probably do listen. I just don't know. I just don't know. I don't know how many, but Yo, what book do you guys want to do? Um so, we ran the PrizePicks discount

[06:08] again. Simple little five-pick flex play. Five-pick flex plays are the best type of slip when you break down the math. Man, I got videos going through the math for all these different platforms. Better, I already did a slip

[06:21] on the previous stream. So, I'm not going to be able to give you a new one. But, on Better, they recently improved their This play is crazy, dude. Like, this is a crazy play. It's not available on PrizePicks. It's only available

[06:33] on Better. Macaulay Culkin, uh no, wait. Macklin Celebrini, over two and a half shots on goal. His under is plus 126. It's another fixed payout sports book on Profit X, bro.

[06:48] smart, really sharp. You are not betting against your neighbor. I mean, I I got to tell some of you guys that cuz you asked me it in this live stream chat.

[07:01] So, you could just run a three-man now. You could run this guy's over on Better. Macaulay Culkin, what's his name? Macklin Celebrini. I apologize. You could run his over, you could run Kempe's under, and then SGA over one and

[07:17] on these super sharp exchanges at plus 122, that means the market makers, these very you know, these trading firms who are offering liquidity, setting lines on Profit X, they want to be on his over at minus 122. That's exactly what you're

[07:32] Dude, there's so much value. I don't know what to do. know what to do. Oh, Kevin Durant.

[07:44] that interview and was saying he's saving himself for marriage, man. He's not married. He's like 37, bro. What does he mean he's saving himself till marriage?

[07:57] Macaulay Culkin, aka Kevin from Home Alone. Yo, what book do you guys want to look at? What book do you guys want to look at? What book do you guys want to look at? So, we got some sleeper discounts today.

[08:14] We got some sleeper discounts. We got some sleeper discounts. together. I promised I would. Again, they made me like Dude, they some [ __ ] identity verification. Um

[08:38] Bro, I got to stop rewatching Breaking Bad. I am not getting to sleep on time, man. I am not getting to sleep on time, man. I am not getting to sleep on time, man. Uh why am I rewatching Breaking Bad? So,

[08:51] there's some good value on Underdog. We can try to rep some lines there. first, man. I've said this before, but some of you guys, you don't listen.

[09:07] He's an absolute ball hog. But, also he's on a new team now. He's on the Brooklyn Nets. He's a big NBA YoungBoy fan, so maybe passing the ball for once in his [ __ ] life, dude.

[09:22] Um But, what was I going to say? Is again, I don't bet on sleeper a lot just because they charge they charge a ridiculous amount of juice. It like it's stressful to look at. Man, look at this line. -135 on the

[09:36] over, -122 on the under. They got a 57 cent spread. You look at all these other books, it's way lower. 11 cents on these really sharp. You are not betting against your neighbor.

[09:55] didn't forget sleeper. I just did sleeper. Yo, did we do it or not? Some Some one's saying I forgot it. No, we did it.

[10:14] Bad? I got to stop doing that. Yo, you guys want to do Underdog? Oh, [ __ ] able to play a better slip. I already

[10:27] hit my daily limit, but I'm going to try to rip some lines with you guys. Um on Underdog. Anyone want to rip some lines? Yo, so the first play we're going to go with this line is only available on Underdog.

[10:41] on Underdog. Um Gabriel Landeskog. his mom's a [ __ ] Karen, bro. Um Gabriel Landeskog under 1 and 1/2 shots

[10:54] on goal. His over is offered at plus 118. You go through the math behind 118. You go through the math behind Underdog. Underdog six picks are optimal. So, I'm going to try to rip an Underdog play. I

[11:07] don't know I don't know how many people are getting this um I don't know how many people are getting the unlimited profit boost, but if you are, congrats. I'm not.

[11:19] Ooh. Mark Williams under 21. Dude, again, I start with crossed market bets just because you have the highest confidence in your edge. Dude, I may I to take a nap.

[11:35] watching Breaking Bad. Man, I remember in my first job when I started watching The Wire. Dude, I would literally in the office take a [ __ ] at lunch. Just take a [ __ ] like four times a day

[11:48] and just watch a full episode of The Wire at work. That show was very addictive. Um well. Yo, so we have Keyonte George over 9 and

[12:03] 1/2 RA's, rebounds plus assists. Let's just try to round it out, find some value. Again, I prefer the cross market bets, but if there's not six cross market bets, we want to run a six-man on Underdog cuz that's the optimal slip

[12:16] type. So, Evan Mobley, every other book has his line much higher at 30 and 1/2 PRA's. You can actually So, this play too. I'm a supporter of the Mobley family. I really like his mom, his

[12:31] little sister. She's super cool. Follow her on Instagram. Follow her on Instagram. Um year? [ __ ] Wizards, bro. Parlay it right now. Commanders, Wizards.

[12:47] Yo, somebody put a link in the chat. Commanders, Wizards. Someone said bumped. It's not bumped. You got like again, dude, there are a lot of high school kids in this chat. It may be crazy to you if you if I mean,

[13:00] if you're the old man in the chat, you're [ __ ] 30 or something. 30 is old, dude. I'm glad I'm not 30. If you are over 30, you guys may not believe it. Some of you guys probably have kids. But, um

[13:15] yeah, a lot of people hit me up, man. My dad Hey, my dad signed up for FanDuel to let me bet on it. He put a grand in it. How do I grow that [ __ ] I'm trying to make some quick cash. You can always identify a high school student by the

[13:28] identify a high school student by the term quick cash. little slimy [ __ ] dude. They bump this stuff fast.

[13:42] You never hear a grown man say, "I'm trying to trying to turn my bankroll. I'm trying to make some quick cash." You don't hear that from anyone normal. You know what I mean? James Harden, uh that's free. Under one

[13:55] and a half steals, this fat old dude. James Harden under one and a half slip, find a little bit of value. You can tell they meant to add a multiplier. They're adding a multiplier on the over, but not the under.

[14:09] Oh, Caris LeVert. I love him. I'm a big supporter of Caris LeVert. He's now on the Pistons, too. Sick. Okay, so we got in our replacement chat wants to do FanDuel and Hard Rock, so we can take a look there.

[14:28] Give me a slap. Ayo. Where's uh Baby Butcher 17? Yo, Cozy Trash Fire. You used to be my favorite person in the chat. Baby Butcher 17 may have you one up.

[14:52] FanDuel just a straight bet. You can see it's a cross market on No Vig. The under is it offered at minus 200, which means the sharps, the market makers are trying to bet the over at plus 200. But again, you don't just have to look at No Vig

[15:06] sharp and you are not betting against your neighbor. I don't think like you can look at Circa, too. Circa's market plus 175 minus 215, so you can D-Vig the market. Man, this is the most important

[15:21] calculator in sports betting. You should read the text on it. You devig Circa's market fair value is What was it? Where did this bet go? That's not what I want. This. Tom Wilson.

[15:40] What did this guy say? Bro, underdog is hogging picks, bro. I guess that is a picks. Those bastards. Yeah, but read Read about this calculator, man. Listen, the key to your life, the key to falling in

[15:56] love, it is all about calculators, bro. Man, you treat your dating life like an expected value equation. What's the probability?

[16:10] Yo, so Tom Wilson to score a goal on FanDuel, they have a hockey parlay profit boost, but I already bet that. Let's see what there is on Hard Rock. Everyone always wants Hard Rock plays. Again, I've said this many times, but I

[16:24] Again, I've said this many times, but I truly believe to my core of souls that even if your mom [ __ ] you know, That's not a funny joke. Never mind. Don't say it, Alex. [ __ ] [ __ ] up

[16:36] joke. Don't say it. Um can probably figure out how to make money on Hard Rock. There is more

[16:51] arbitrage. Listen up. Then I mean, it is just crazy. Look at this play, dude. Myles Turner over 14 and 1/2 points. So, I played this on Hard Rock. Again, very crappy limits they give me. Saints plus 6 and 1/2.

[17:07] Myles Turner over 14 and 1/2 points. First of all, it's a crossed market. very high confidence in your edge. You can get the over or the under at plus money. One of the two bets is plus EV and obviously again on no vig, it's a

[17:23] really sharp book, market makers, [ __ ] like that, trading firms offering liquidity. It's not your neighbor. So, you know, and then you kind of take a look at other sports books. Every book

[17:37] has like Myles Turner favored to go over 14 and a half points. It's just like I don't even know what they're doing, bro. They only give me $10 bets props, but we're up like $1,000 this month or 1.1.6

[17:53] K. I don't even know why I'm selling myself short. Literally just clicking confidence in your edge. I don't know why they give me 10 like It would be nice if we just compromised and they gave me like 30. Um what book

[18:06] do you guys want to do though? Let's check out Dabble. Oh my gosh, dude. Dabble is harder. Dude.

[18:23] picks for tonight. Yo, what's the best shield on Dabble right now?

[18:35] My neighbor at my house is betting 30K on no vig. That's not a funny joke. The guy who said it wasn't a funny joke didn't listen to the word joke, man.

[18:51] This dude ain't reading my [ __ ] I'm reading your [ __ ] bro. promos on Twitter. What do you want to do on pick six, man?

[19:06] didn't you guys say to look at pick six? But we got to do a Dabble slip first. Let's see what we got. How's that for a plan? Damn, dude, the How's that for a plan? Damn, dude, the value is kind of popping.

[19:20] Let's get it going. What's the best shield on Dabble, bro? in the chat. The guy right after you when you commented everyone saying pick six asked for underdog. What is this guy talking about? All

[19:35] right, so the first play we're going to go with is Dylan Harper. Man, listen up. Any of you high school kids in the chat gambling on your dad's credit card, you ever meet a girl named

[19:48] credit card, you ever meet a girl named Harper, you run. You run as fast as you name. You know what I mean? There is no normal girl named Harper. Um first play we're going with is Dylan

[20:02] Harper under four and a half assists. His over is offered at plus 125. This is super solid. What is the best shield available? Yeah, we also have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

[20:18] half of a point. Run faster than Forrest Gump. Exactly. Man, too many of you guys trying to date Harpers is a problem. Um

[20:37] better? Yeah, I did. They recently improved three-man 6X payout. Going to be a ton of value on better. Unfortunately, I still have the daily limits. Wyatt Johnston point. Thank you.

[20:50] Yo, Anonymous 420. Thank you. I appreciate it. No payout shift. So, this is what you want to run. I knows No, dude. You Anonymous 420. What the [ __ ] bro?

[21:05] Bro gives me a pick that adds my multiplier down to a point five four x multiplier down to a point five four x be better. 40,000 people asking people who is going to win the World Series not one person

[21:21] said the Blue Jays could win more than three games in the series. Really sad the series probably going to be a blowout. Yo, what is the best shield on dabble? Connor McMichael shot on goal. Thank

[21:37] Connor McMichael shot on goal. Thank you. So basically this app dabble. They don't add in pay dude. What are you talking about? Dylan Strom shot on goal.

[21:51] You guys are providing literally horrible advice to the community. It's a horrible advice to the community. It's a problem. Anyways, I don't know what's going on. I'm just going to throw in uh

[22:06] I guess we'll go with Kispert's under. I mean, I don't like running the same pick. But it has value. You could also run KD under two and a half threes. Then you're kind of like hedging the taco. I guess

[22:22] So this is a very beautiful play. I don't know what's going on with the don't know what's going on with the fields right now.

[22:34] your limit. Um Man, you guys just want hard rock in this chat though. this chat though. Lu Dort over three and a half rebounds.

[22:46] Cross Market FanDuel is crossed. Also FanDuel has a 30% NBA profit boost. We um We ran Tony Parker over two and a half made threes. If you were on the previous stream.

[23:09] heavy liquidity, higher liquidity when you're looking at cross markets is obviously better. If there's $50,000 in liquidity, somebody's pretty confident in the lines they're putting out versus if it's

[23:21] $12.36, then you may be betting against Peter Grazer from this live stream chat. So you need to consider the liquidity.

[23:36] Alex, when are we betting the backup? Alex, when are we booting back up on the talking about? I'll show you guys the Pick Six value. I already did the promos.

[23:50] I'm not logged in to DraftKings right now, but you guys can see the [ __ ] value and make some decisions for yourself because there's infinite value right now. Man, I was up at 9:00 a.m. after staying

[24:02] Man, I was up at 9:00 a.m. after staying up till 6:00 a.m. to watch Breaking Bad. Why do I do that every night? Just pair Just pair three of these together. It's not super complicated. Every one of these plays is plus EV. Obviously,

[24:15] higher liquidity and higher odd percentage is better when you're cross market betting. Oh [ __ ] what I forgot to mention as Oh [ __ ] what I forgot to mention as well is um

[24:45] Dude, where did my video camera go? [ __ ] did I break the cord? [ __ ] did I break the cord? Yo.

[24:57] Oh my god, are you kidding me, dude? This is ridiculous. Is this working? What is going on? Yo, but anyways, pick six, you could run any three of these. What the [ __ ]

[25:12] Dude. What are you doing?

[25:25] guys see me? Yo, can you hear me? Yo, can you hear me? Oh, there we go. Fixed it.

[25:40] available, long story short, on pick six. What is the optimal slip? Dude, I don't even remember. I think it's three mans, but I could be wrong. Oh, [ __ ] man. So, what is the best value on better

[25:55] right now? I mean, Shea's available a lot of places, same thing with Kempe. Dylan Harper, I mean, there's limitless value right now. know what to do. Oh, [ __ ] you guys want BetMGM? We can look.

[26:11] Everyone in the chat is asking for BetMGM. Huh. Everyone in Everyone in the Facebook chat is asking for BetMGM. So, the first play we're going to do is Luke Evangelista.

[26:27] Heavy liquidity being offered on his under at minus 139. If someone's offering his under at minus 139 for 3.8k, that means they want to bet thousands and tens of thousands $3,000 on the over at plus 139, not 10,000. And

[26:43] plus 140. Ayo, shout out to [ __ ] Big Bob in the [ __ ] Facebook chat. Thanks for supporting. We love that you're on Facebook. Facebook is the oldest audience. I love streaming

[26:58] on Facebook. Yo, Jalen Duren double double. This play is actually crazy. I mean, they gave me decent, not horrible betting limits on it. So,

[27:12] what do we want to do? So, if you look at BetMGM, oh my god. Yo, this is actually a crazy play on Underdog, too. Ryan Cockburn's un-

[27:28] under 14 and 1/2 points. Dude, Profit X has this over at plus 147. So, there is a lot of line movement in the NBA as official starting lineups come out and stuff like that. So, Jalen Duren, I mean, super heavy

[27:42] liquidity arbitrage cross market. That's a crazy good play on BetMGM. A crazy good play. Marcus Smart over two and a half assists. Dude, I was trying to bet this on pick six in the morning for the play I gave out,

[27:57] in the morning for the play I gave out, but unfortunately, they bumped it. right now, bro? Trae Young under half of a double double. Dude, Trae Young is

[28:09] washed. I expect the Atlanta Hawks to be one of I expect the Atlanta Hawks to be one of the worst teams in the NBA, man.

[28:22] Uh Thank you, lace 'em up. are going to be one of the worst teams in the NBA. And as all the experts and analysts suggested, Stephen A. Smith, he ain't never been wrong in his life. As

[28:36] he said on his talk show this morning, there is a real chance the Washington Wizards make it to the NBA finals. Like, real chance. You guys can sleep on them.

[28:49] them. You guys are making the mistake though. Cason Wallace over two and a half rebounds.

[29:01] straight face when I'm saying that sentence. Yo, so actually not horrible betting limits. I mean, they'll just continue to increase. I mean, that's another huge crossed market with heavy liquidity.

[29:14] I just put a band on the Wizards to win the finals. Thank you. It's crazy, man. Um

[29:39] funniest joke she's heard in a while. Washington Wizards. could get this on Underdog, but it's also on BetMGM. You guys want more

[29:51] BetMGM or what do you want to do? Cuz there is a lot of value here. Um but I think let's see. Let's see if there's anything else.

[30:07] dry. Underdog, is there enough to build a new slip? I mean, better I hit my daily limit. Underdog's kind of more of the Oh, [ __ ] Underdog's kind of more of the Oh, [ __ ] I guess you could run this calc