Why Your Parlays Always Lose
45sReveals the harsh truth about parlay betting and hooks viewers by addressing their pain point of losing by one leg.
▶ Play ClipThis video reveals a mathematically sound parlay betting strategy that flips the typical losing approach. The host explains why standard parlays fail (12.5% win rate for three -110 legs) and presents a two-step method using high-probability player props (90%+ each) to achieve an 86% win rate on three-team parlays. He also emphasizes proper unit sizing to avoid digging a hole.
Most bettors lose because three -110 legs have only a 12.5% chance of hitting, meaning they lose 87.5% of the time. Bettors quit after a few losses due to emotional frustration.
To win at parlays, you must use three legs each with 90%+ true probability. This flips the win rate to 86%.
Use player props (e.g., Luka Doncic over 20 points, over 5 rebounds, over 6 assists) with odds like -700, -800, -400, corresponding to 96%, 97%, 93% probability. These can be from the same player or different players.
Multiplying the probabilities (96% * 97% * 93%) gives an 86% chance of hitting the parlay, compared to 12.5% for standard parlays.
Do not bet the implied odds (e.g., -170 to win $100). Instead, bet your unit size (e.g., $100) regardless of the odds. This prevents digging a hole when you lose.
Combining high-probability legs with correct unit sizing is the only way to be profitable with parlays.
By using three player props with 90%+ probability and betting a fixed unit size, you can achieve an 86% win rate on three-team parlays. This strategy flips the script on typical losing parlays and offers a sustainable approach.
"Title promises a profitable parlay strategy and delivers a specific, mathematically-backed method, though success depends on finding 90%+ props."
What is the probability of hitting a standard three-team parlay with -110 legs?
12.5%
01:58
What win rate does the host claim for his high-probability parlay strategy?
86%
08:51
What type of bets does the host recommend for the high-probability legs?
Player props (e.g., points, rebounds, assists) with 90%+ probability.
05:20
Why should you bet your unit size instead of the odds amount?
To avoid digging a hole when you lose; betting the odds amount can cause losses of multiple units.
14:49
What is the implied probability of a -110 line?
Approximately 52.4% (but true probability is often lower).
01:29
12.5% Win Rate for Standard Parlays
Quantifies why most parlay bettors lose 87.5% of the time.
01:5886% Win Rate with High-Probability Legs
Shows the dramatic improvement from using 90%+ legs.
08:51Unit Sizing Over Odds Sizing
Critical bankroll management principle often overlooked by bettors.
11:28[00:01] Cow they dangle those massive payouts in front of you turn $10 into $10,000 but billions off of losing parlay betters every single year so let's be real how many of your parlays actually cash how often do you miss it by just one leg
[00:17] well it's not bad luck that's by Design the books are setting traps and most BS walk right into them but today I'm going to flip the script for you if you really want to hit parlays consistently there's only one strategy that actually works
[00:31] going to show you in two steps how you can be successful actually doing parlays know I'm strictly against parlay I don't like doing them whatsoever but there is
[00:43] a way to actually do them to where you can be profitable because the thing is most people just never find that strategy never find that way but I'm going to discuss it here with you guys this is what your normal parlay looks
[00:58] like okay and we're going to keep this around three teams because even at three teams this is where you know some people start falling off the wagon and they miss by one or whatnot so most three team parlays look like this
[01:16] right you have three plays that are most likely minus 110 and you have to hit likely minus 110 and you have to hit every single one to win okay but what people don't realize is these individually maybe sometimes they'll be
[01:29] individually maybe sometimes they'll be having a 50% probability a piece okay most of the time it's lower okay at minus 110 most of the time probability is lower than 50% like the true true value not just what the sportsbooks
[01:43] implied probability is so let's say we have three of these together the probability of us hitting all three of these is
[01:58] 12.5% 12.5% and this is why people tend to lose a lot because think at 12.5% you're losing what almost 88% of the time about 87% of the time so you're
[02:17] 7.5% time okay so that's almost nine out of every 10 times you do this you end up losing so what is that what happens there that means that your average Sports better that tries this they're not going to even do this 10 times
[02:32] because over the first three or four times they're not going to win in the first three four five times trying that and
[02:47] they end up losing and then they end up getting their emotions the kick in and they end up quitting this is what your average Sports better does okay this is the Circle that it goes into okay goes put
[03:02] in a bad parlay that has a small probability of winning losing going quitting coming back up trying it again losing quitting again that's the circle that's the motion that they go into because they just have no idea about
[03:18] percentages they don't dive into any of this stuff to understand the reasons why they're really losing consistently rather than figuring a way out to rather than figuring a way out to actually win so your average Sports just
[03:30] thinks that you know hey I'm just going to put these three in I'm going to put $10 on it okay I'll put 10 bucks on it they don't realize is look $10 let's say they try it seven times and they lose that's $70 that they're
[03:45] that's $70 that they're out they're at okay they don't live to see that winning percentage whatsoever they don't live to see that winning percentage to see that actually win one
[04:00] now this is if they get lucky okay this is if they get lucky and you find plays that have at least 50% true probability atus 110 which most of the time like I've said in previous videos you will find that Theus 110 line usually is
[04:14] lower than 50% most of the time they set it up that way that's the way it's designed to work so that way you go and bet that number now how do we flip this okay how do we change this whole layout of how things look there's only one way
[04:30] to do this okay there is no other way to win at parlay whatsoever but what I'm about to show you there's no other way so let's go ahead let's dive into that I noticed that I'm talking about what three teamers at the most
[04:48] three teamers at the most here okay why is because anything more than this starts becoming impossible for you to be able to hit okay regardless starts coming really really hard and you're going to lose 90 95 97 99% of the
[05:03] handle that okay so that's why the most I will go is a three teamer but the three teamer has to consist of this strategy that I'm about to show you okay now first step here what we need to do is we need to find whether it's a play I
[05:20] I prefer them to be player props because you can actually get true high probability on player props but I prefer that you grab player props here and we that you grab player props here and we need to find three player
[05:40] props that have 90 Plus for probability we got to find three player props that have 90% probability now these don't have to be separate what you
[05:55] can do here as well is you could use the same player so like for example in the NBA you could use one player and let's say Luca for say Luca for example you could have Luca over 20
[06:12] points you have Luca over five plus rebounds and you could have him over six plus assists okay so you could do this a
[06:29] couple ways is but they all have to come back to the exact same thing which we're going to get into they all have to come back and jive with the same thing now probability wise what you're looking for is 90 plus per. so what are the odds
[06:43] going to be on your single legs for 90 plus% probabilities they're going to look like this okay so for example let's just say this right here with Luca the here
[06:57] okay minus 700 here this one may be minus 800 this one may be minus 800 this one may be minus 400 okay we'll put it that way but cuz that's the only way you're going to find 90 plus% probability so let's say
[07:14] for example this probability here is 96% this one's 97% and this one's 93% all right this is like I said you could use it with different player players or you could use the same player
[07:29] going to do good for the game and you you know think they're going to hit their easy numbers that's what I like to call these these are like easy numbers so like I said this is an example for an NBA player but you could do this in
[07:42] every other sport as well just have to find the stats that are going to hit that very high probability now if you guys want to shortcut all this stuff and you want me to show you exactly which ones that I have cuz I've developed a
[07:54] software that shows you exactly what the highest probability plays are on a any given day all you guys got to do is click the link down below and join the group all right you've seen on YouTube if you follow my YouTube if you follow
[08:07] Instagram all the comments everybody loves being a part of the group everybody just loves winning if you want to be a part of a winning team and stop the link in the description now back to what I was saying again if we have a 96%
[08:22] probability here 97 93% what does that give us what is the true percent of hitting a three teamer just like this at these type of odds the
[08:34] true probability for this parlay right here is going to be script there right completely flipped it from your average parlay at minus 110
[08:51] from your average parlay at minus 110 three teams produces 12% of the time we flipped it now we have a parlay that produces 86% of the time which means almost eight nine out of 10 times you place this you are going to end up
[09:07] winning okay this is what I'm telling you guys right here we flipped the script this is the only way that you can do it there is no other way to be able to bet parlay and like I said before I'm against parlay allog together but if you
[09:22] need to do it because sometimes the reason why you need to do these is if have certain lines you have to manipulate the sports book to give you the line that you want and sometimes you have to do stuff like this
[09:36] right here what I just showed you with luga okay sometimes you got to do this it is what it is it's essentially sometimes the same thing as taking one player prop cuz this right here for example is like taking one points
[09:48] rebounds and assists player prop but instead you're just splitting them up together and sometimes you get better OD when you mash them all together but like I just showed you guys here this is an 86% probability of hitting a three team
[10:04] parlay here same thing could go if you separate this into three different players as long as these players have above a 90 plus% probability whether it be their individual Stat or a points rebounds assist number whatever it is as
[10:17] long as they have that 90 plus% probability you can mash them together because once you mash them together you will have a high probability of hitting these and like I said I teach this in my group and there's about I'd say about 30
[10:31] or 40 people that actually use this strategy right here and don't do singles they use this strategy right here and they win consistently doing it because guys like I tell you in other videos if it's 86% guess what you're going to hit
[10:46] 80% hit in that range that's just what's going to happen because you're playing the probabilities of what that player is doing and the Tendencies so they're going to stick to that probability they're going to hit that number 90 perc
[10:59] of the time that's just the way that it goes okay but this is the only way like I said this is the first step in being able to find exactly how to hit a three teamer and do parlays the correct way rather than the way that everybody else
[11:14] does them and all they do is just donate and the sports books just keep stacking and stacking and stacking their cash I'll jump into step two okay we've identified in Step One the exact way to put this parlay together now we need to
[11:28] identify how much are we supposed to put on that par L okay so let's say for on that par L okay so let's say for example your unit
[11:45] bucks your average parly better what they'll do is I mean I hate to say this but sometimes they'll go and put their whole unit size on three minus 110 plays which you're not supposed to do something like that either but you have
[11:59] to understand when you doing the parlay strategy that I just showed you it's the same thing as playing one play that has an 80 plus% chance of winning okay so have to if your unit size is this kind of split this up into like $10 bets or
[12:16] because you're not playing something that has absurd odds to it to where you could just play one1 of your unit size okay but your unit size let's say if be doing here here is you are you are going to be
[12:32] going to be placing $100 on that three teamer okay that I showed you that's what you would be doing okay fragment of it and you're also not going to be betting what I'm about to show you
[12:47] a lot of people make let's say that three teamer the odds on that three teamer once you mash them all together let's say it's minus 170 okay but your let's say it's minus 170 okay but your unit size is $100
[13:00] you are not betting $170 to win $100 you're not doing that huge misconception in sports betting right
[13:12] here huge that people think that this is what you're supposed to do because oh what you do to pay the juice no that's not how it works okay when you're doing it long term you are not worrying about what your odds are and pretty much
[13:26] about that you're worried wor about what your unit size is so if your unit size is 100 bucks on that three teamer you're laying $100 okay you are not laying what the odds dictated it to be you're just not doing that because sometimes with
[13:41] the three teamer if you have n if each leg has like 98% and you match them all together sometimes your odds will be like minus 220 or something like that for a three teamer but you have like a 90% probability of it winning so you
[13:55] have to see how that correlates okay because like I said before a minus 220 implied probability is like 70% is it's in that range and if you 70% is it's in that range and if you have three plays that are 98% and your
[14:10] overall probability hitting the three teamer is 90% You Got What A Plus teamer is 90% You Got What A Plus 20%
[14:22] understand true probability and true odds that's the only way you're going to win in sports betting or in parlay betting because parlay beding there's only one way to be successful and it's what I just showed you not round Robins
[14:35] not any of that stuff it's what I just showed you so make sure your unit size that your betting is correct as well you're not doing any of this garbage right here we don't want to do any of that all right if your unit size is 100
[14:49] bucks you're betting 100 bucks if your unit size is 50 bucks you're betting 50 if your unit size is 500 you're betting 500 that's the way that you do it to be able to be successible long term if you do it any other way you're going to dig
[15:03] yourself a hole cuz like I said if you bet 22 if you're unit size 100 bucks you bet 220 to win 100 bucks you end up losing you're down two units rather than being down just one unit that will eat you up in the long term that's why
[15:18] people playing higher odds are always unsuccessful of things when they're betting the exact odd not their unit size is because when they take losses and a cur loss they dig themselves a huge hole that they have to get out of
[15:32] and they most likely don't get out of that hole so you have to understand this probably more important than the strategy that I showed you step one but you have to follow both if you put both together and mix both together you will
[15:45] together and mix both together you will be successful at doing this just simple and like I said if you guys want the strategies and you guys want the software just to implement so that way all the stuff is just given to you make
[15:59] sure you guys click the link down in the description it's that simple okay as always guys I'm Frank lemaker Sports I'll see you guys in the next video till I'll see you guys in the next video till end Al out
⚡ Saved you 0h 16m reading this? Transcribe any YouTube video for free — no signup needed.