The Soccer Bet That Wins 87% of the Time

[00:02] it. It's not a parlay, it's not a prediction on who wins the match. It's the simplest bet on the entire board. And my tracker shows it's one of the sport that I bet on. I'm going to show you the exact system step-by-step with

[00:15] video, you'll be able to find this bet get into it. Most sports bettors in the US completely ignore soccer. They think it's a low-scoring sport where nothing happens. And that's exactly why there's

[00:28] missing. Soccer has more games than any other sport on any given day. On a typical weekday, you've got the Premier League, you got Bundesliga, Champions League, MLS, and dozens of other leagues all running simultaneously. That volume

[00:42] edges. And the bet type that we're looking at today is going to be over 1.5 total goals. That means the two teams combined just need to score two goals

[00:54] for us to be able to win. Not three, not four, just two goals in 90 minutes of sounds way too easy. And that's exactly the point. It is relatively easy for two goals to be scored in a soccer match. But the question is whether the odds

[01:09] that the sports book gives us creates a positive edge when we apply the right filters. That's where the system comes in. Here are the four criteria that I use to find the over one and a half goals with a verified edge. Every step

[01:23] narrows that field. By the time all four line up, you've got a bet that hits at 87% of the time. Step one is both teams need to average at least one goal per game. This is the baseline filter. If both teams are averaging over one goal

[01:38] per game just on their own, the combined expected goals for the match is already Now, you might ask, "Where do you find this?" Well, any stat site for soccer, which could be Flashscore, Sofascore, even a basic Google search for the team

[01:52] look at is you want to look at the goal scored per game for each team. So, if team A averages 1.3 goals per game and team B averages 1.1 goals per game, combine that, you get what? 2.4 expected goals. And that right there would make

[02:07] you pass step one. Now, let's go ahead and get to step two, the head-to-head history of the teams going against each other. They need to at least be over other. They need to at least be over 80% to getting over the mark of 1.5

[02:21] researching, and that's why most people lose. Season averages tell you what each team does generally. Head-to-head tells you what happens when these two teams play each other specifically. Some matchups just produce goals. Two rival

[02:35] teams that play an open attacking style against each other will consistently produce over two goals, even if one of them plays defensively against other opponents. All that shows up in the head-to-head data. Now, let's go ahead

[02:47] and get to step three here. Step three is going to be checking each team's recent form. So, what you want to do is you want to look at the last five going against each other. Season-long averages can be misleading because a

[03:02] team could have scored 30 goals in their first 15 games, but gone through a slump in the last five. Recent form tells you what's happening right now, not 3 months ago. I want to see both teams having scored in at least four of their last

[03:15] five matches. That tells me both teams are currently in a goal-scoring rhythm, not 3 months ago. And you can find that information same place. Flashscore, Sofascore, those websites, and even a Google search. You can literally find

[03:28] the head-to-head stuff and recent form to be able to make through these three want to count how many games each team scored. If both teams scored in four or more of the last five, then you pass step three. If either team has been shut

[03:42] out in two or more of their last five, you're going to skip it. Now, let's go ahead and get to step four. The odds must have positive edge. Now, this is from gambling. Once you've confirmed steps one through three,

[03:56] you have a match with a high true probability of going over one and a half goals. Based on my tracking, matches that pass all three filters go over one and a half goals approximately 87% of the time. 87% true probability

[04:10] translates to implied odds of around minus 670. So, your job is simple. If the sports book is offering you anything better than minus 670 on the over one and a half goals, then you have a positive edge. Most sports books price

[04:24] over one and a half goals in high-scoring matchups at around minus 350 to minus 500. That's an implied probability of about 78% to 83%. So, let's go ahead and write that down. If the average implied probability there is

[04:37] between 78% 83%, and the true probability is 87%, you can see we have probability is 87%, you can see we have a gap here for positive edge, right? a gap here for positive edge, right? Because now, if it's 78 to 80 to 83%,

[04:51] doesn't matter. We have a positive edge because our true probability is going to be around that 87% mark, thus creating that positive edge that we're looking bettors don't realize about in the over one and a half goals in soccer. The

[05:05] totals than they are on money lines or spreads. The reason is simple. The majority of betting volume in soccer goes on the match result, win, draw, or lose. That's where the sports books focus their sharpest odds-making

[05:18] resources at. The totals market, especially the one and a half line, gets less attention. Less attention from the book means softer lines. Softer lines mean more edge for people who actually do the research. This is the same

[05:30] principle as my MLB player prop strategy. Sports books can't be equally sharp across every single market. They focus on the popular ones and leave inefficiencies in the less popular ones. Over one and a half goals in soccer is

[05:44] one of those inefficiencies. And because soccer is played year-round across multiple leagues, this isn't a seasonal strategy. You can run this 365 days a year. There's always a match somewhere that passes all four of the criteria

[05:57] want to learn and shortcut all this and learn exactly how to do this right from the description. I know some of you are wondering, "How much time does this take each day?" The honest answer is about 10 to 15 minutes. Here's my process. I open

[06:11] Flashscore in the morning. I look at the day's matchups across the top five European leagues plus MLS. I check each team's goal per game, their average. right there. For the ones that pass step one, I click into the head-to-head tab,

[06:27] take about 30 seconds per match. That elimination That eliminates another half of those. For the survivors, I check recent form. Another 30 seconds there the odds across two to three sports books and calculate the edge on a

[06:43] typical day. Out of maybe 15 to 20 matches, I might find probably one to three that pass all four steps. Some days, I'll find zero, and then I just don't make a bet. But that's discipline. Forcing a bet that doesn't meet the

[06:55] criteria defeats the entire purpose. So, again, over one and a half goals, four simple steps, 10 minutes a day, 87% win rate. It's not glamorous. You're watching a soccer match hoping for two goals. Not exactly edge-of-your-seat

[07:09] entertainment. But my tracker shows profit, and that's all that matters. I'm guys in the next video. Till then, I'm out.