SMB Capital AM Meeting Replay — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[01:00] so let's see here chart um a few months

[01:14] we are kind of in the pre-market we're at a 303 so this 303 to 305 area a lot of resistance here over the last couple weeks um so it's a stretch um obviously we

[01:29] bottomed out here was it monday it doesn't yeah i don't know if this quite chose the low here but we almost got to 280 um got to 280 um and

[01:45] portion of the internet is down or something um anyway e-signal the program's down the website's down etc so so we had our balance um big balance

[01:58] um after seeing some buying on wednesday we had the good follow through so the first is you know it's the first time since back here in march

[02:12] um i would think that there's going to be all sorts of trouble right here but ultimately when we had this down move here we were talking about a move back up to um to here like this area here like 315 320

[02:27] kind of pullback low area for march um we definitely could get that next week or the week after it will depend on really um hey how it um yeah my internet's fine or obviously i wouldn't be talking to you

[02:42] um so so that's that um

[02:59] averages are [Music] you know 410 410's the obvious level there on the spies most recent pop topped out in the four elites um

[03:12] last week where this hard hard pull in so nice you know look it's a nice turn autumn's turning up uh the inflation the into the core was in line it was the lead reaction i was surprised i thought

[03:26] i thought we would pop um immediately instead we bit um but then we popped a few dollars so up one percent on the queues basically

[03:39] all right so in terms of stuff costco we know that has sold off a ton recently um one of the last premium stocks to get taken to the witch head um at its low it almost got to 400 from 600

[03:54] so roughly you know 30 pullback here i mean it already bounced coming into the um and i think you know if the numbers had everything they probably would have filled

[04:07] this gap but remember broad-based retailers fact that this is already balanced as much as it is and it's only down one percent this morning it's probably pretty good for it um

[04:20] my eye was like the numbers were strong the revenue was really strong inflationary impact of the revenue numbers it does seem like

[04:32] uh growth is slowing but at the same time we we have seen this shift over the month or so from people people spending a ton of at home and now there's a lot of money

[04:44] this shift which will probably continue through the summer where people buying less crap and spending more to travel um and so i guess compared to the other ones compared to the other

[04:58] good so that's why it's not down a huge amount recent balance from 410 to yesterday got as high as i guess 470.

[05:13] um looks like after the numbers came out it was down at 447. it was down at 447. so it's ready to come back about a 10

[05:25] apologize for the charts talking um w day day can be a tricky attention was how much the margins had dropped that is down 50 from the high so

[05:40] dropped that is down 50 from the high so let's see so you can see most recently most recent quarter was probably

[05:52] yeah probably going back a little further let's see like a 230 stock gapped up and

[06:04] and this trend started here up um

[06:25] hmm good question um wj hasn't been this low since the panda in the pandemic it was down in the 120s

[06:51] spike i mean it just the amount that the margins dropped um it certainly could go up but that's not it's not the same feel certainly it's not in a video situation deposited at one point yesterday i don't know if it finished positive

[07:06] so it's always a wild part when something's already come down 50 it's down back to kind of this area here kind of this area here um where it was during the pandemic so

[07:19] well i guess we'll we'll kind of see it looks like it was down at 152 earlier this morning it's now 154 bit so i did put in as resistance 150 116 pieces did have a pop but that's not kind of like my base case but

[07:34] see what happens um want to trade this um here's the downtrend from 60 to 40.

[07:48] it had bounced i guess to 44 over the last couple days with the um now gapping up quite a bit on the strength of the yeah those were really strong numbers um

[08:00] it did catch my attention a little bit of margin pressure so this prior low which then became resistance before the so this is kind of do or die and the way i think

[08:14] thankful to be able to get some sales up here in this 4950 area um but after 10 o'clock if it's holding above here then ensure it could just keep going going for the day but this is kind of danger zone from a buying standpoint right here

[08:30] even with this as explosive as the numbers were pd crushed with all the other china stuff

[08:43] grab this part from here here's the longer term so it was a 200 stock now for a while um

[08:55] actually it does look good it does 11 million shares normally it's already done almost 2 million about 8 percent um this 45 and a half kind of catches my eye right here um

[09:09] so 45 and 85 46 is r1 um if it takes that 46 on the open it could you could get a really quick spike um

[09:22] you could get a really quick spike um you know do this 48 to 50 between r2 r3 you do get that quick spike on the open then it'll quickly come right back down um that is that

[09:36] that is that and then nvidia was you know was great that was kind of a turning point for the market right they came out little bit it would you know mark they acted like

[09:50] hours and the market opened got above that 160 level we discussed yesterday and it just was you know it was just a strong

[10:08] there's a strong trender this is from today mark it took out the pre-market high and it was just

[10:22] consolidated up consolidated up um this final move here but it easily just stopped right here and then kind of pulled it a little bit but went up to got to 180. so

[10:36] but went up to got to 180. so [Music] numbers were really good that it could get to like the mid 180s so it's it's definitely stretched up here um

[10:51] so that's my thoughts on that tesla i thought it was besties got the 700 thought it was besties got the 700 um

[11:04] bid that was kind of funny they flushed it almost i guess the 650s um but then got up consolidated above r2 and then just broke up to 700 had one little rollover at the end of the day at

[11:18] a 700 or this kind of area here um it's extended here yeah unless the market goes really crazy to the upside today i could see it closing between 700 and 720 today um you might get one of those uh

[11:34] tesla like quick pops on the open and then like a you know 15 20 pull in something like that um last time at like last pullback to 700 again um so this is it's about 100 off the low

[11:48] um and yeah i had some 680 calls from when it you know when i got crushed the other the majority of those yesterday when it got to 700 um would sell the rest of

[12:03] them on the open probably uh if it starts to roll over if it pops a little bit um q's rolling over a little bit i just got an alert below little bit i just got an alert below 30250. so on the q's my thought is

[12:16] pre-market eye and hold above there um a pullback to 300 301 would be pretty you don't want to see us close below 298 today if we get below 298 and we have the three day weekend to be concerned about

[12:30] nervous but the fact that you had buying two days in a row nvidia on the poor guidance goes positive the inflation thing okay today i think the 10-year yield is below 275 there's no

[12:43] i don't know what would cause us to really get hit hard today but obviously we've gone up enough the last couple days to have you know some pullback um these situations where we just don't pull back and people chase

[12:56] money would be on a little bit of a pullback but um okay um so somebody asked that gma um so this move was pretty wild yesterday i mean

[13:11] i know shark got heavily shorted into this craziness i don't know i think i'm took off in this pullback and it was still forwarded he's probably playing it um the thought is after you get this

[13:24] the first day i think it popped from 110 to 120 or something um is does it make the lower high today and then does it basically take out this i mean it was accumulated here 126 127

[13:38] um looks like all afternoon so you're looking for the lower high here's the um you get your lower high and you want to quickly you know at least see it below like 132 and then ultimately for it to be a real

[13:53] fee today and go back down to 115 120 it's gonna have to hold below 125. so situation but it did you know up two days blow off top gapping up it's very typical that you'll get the the lower high scenario i

[14:06] haven't looked at any of the news that's causing this nonsense um on baba yesterday nice move here um after the market open with everything else got above 90

[14:19] consolidated looks at 94 all day um it's down a little bit now below 94. i think a reasonable pull-in for baba is like 90 to 92 ish um obviously from a longer term

[14:33] perspective it's still in this massive massive downtrend we have we have i big one we played i think it was this bounce right here which was the best one for us um and you know since then made a new low

[14:47] came back up you know it's it's just in a pure downtrend um bigger picture it gets back above like 110 uh you know the next couple weeks that then i would bring this like 110 to 130s and play this range right here

[15:02] but obviously sellers thoroughly controlled ccp is kind of blowing up all the tech stocks there so um as always be patient and good luck

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