Market Crash Analysis — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:54] [Music] so yeah that was quick um [Music]

[01:06] thursday in front of the cpi um is feeling really good right now like me like here so uh put your phones on vibrate

[01:22] so uh put your phones on vibrate um cpi came out hot the core number was okay i think a lot of people were thinking oh it's going to come in line or maybe be a

[01:35] um but you never know until after the leaning so crypto melted down over the weekend that caused futures the gap down i think a bit sunday night people got more

[01:48] nervous and here we are um below the um but i feel like a broken record since we've been in this bear market now for um five months

[02:02] that when you get a move like this severe you need to be really careful uh on the short side it's better to look some sort of pop and not to say you can't short today if we you know pop

[02:15] three or four dollars on the open and stop going up consolidating below 280 or something like that but it's just you know the spot to like be thinking about short was

[02:30] on thursday got below like 304 or whatever it was like towards the end of [Music] or in the you know on the on the break friday morning below 298 or something

[02:46] let me zoom out so here's the bounce in march consolidated obviously this consolidation resolved to the downside

[03:00] doesn't mean um but keep in mind as we over the next few days

[03:17] if we don't reclaim it's 285 area 285 286 and better yet um then this this downtrend of it my thought process was i maybe said this

[03:30] over in the week the review on saturday was short term would be buy opportunity in fact i'd say a flush on the open

[03:43] um to s2 which i put on there oops i put on the sheet um get aggressive on some sort of flush on least pop back up to 280 and then we would kind of see what happens

[04:00] so that's on the queue um but i might my attention although this year from the large cap tech i'm definitely gonna start to shift some more focus back to the spy

[04:13] um but we have an increased risk now of just like a total kind of meltdown i don't i don't think it's you know that high would be great if it happens um if you want to see what that looks like take a look at

[04:26] december 2018 like when we started to get closer to the low i think and those i believe definitely in august 2011 we dropped 10 on the spies in a few

[04:39] [Music] i days remember what the percentages were in 2018 but let's see here 10 percent

[04:53] 40. that'd be like another 15 bucks so here because that would almost get us to um a trading hall but not quite so it'd be like another like 10 15

[05:08] on the uh the spies again small possibility but it's just in the becomes a free for all what that might look like is fail to bounce in the um we'll grind you know grinding down make new lows during the day

[05:23] really go up more than a couple of dollars and then into the latter part of the day um fall apart something like that gap down tomorrow

[05:36] um yeah i mean i already mentioned earlier meltdown over the weekend definitely i think helped the futures go down sunday but i think most investors aren't in the

[05:50] involved in crypto at all it's um there's some but it's mostly like a global retail phenomena um that are in stocks that crypto is a multiple of badness

[06:05] especially outside of like bitcoin and ethereum which are down a lot but probably not no more than like a zero profit high growth stock or so so um all right so on the spines

[06:18] [Music] i mean three eight we're back to that dollars above the hues again so the levels kind of line up pretty well with each other um but looking at this like 385

[06:32] um that's kind of the level that needs to be recaptured when this bottom did it very quickly you know reversed at the end of the day back above 385 and then when we had to like kind of

[06:44] later um and held a couple dollars higher so um and held a couple dollars higher so let me zoom out on this one see kind of where we are going back to

[06:59] marketplace okay so beginning of 2021 we're at 390 and then that pullback was to so 372.

[07:14] yeah 370 i like this 378 on the spies a little bit more conservative on the q's more volatile um

[07:26] but yeah that's not that far below the pre-market low it's actually really not moving much in the people with spies aren't they steps up and holds for more than a minute above 382 that's you start to

[07:43] look for a bounce here in the skies um let me take a look at the vix vxx for um let me take a look at the vix vxx for you

[07:55] to look at we talked about this on the 10 years back above going to probably top out the yields are going to top out today or tomorrow there

[08:22] so the last few spikes in may or 33 so we're right there

[08:35] not seeing that's why it's down here not like prior highs where it was in when the vix was at 33 in may

[08:53] 21 and a half it's only a 15 only it's only a 15 move it's only a 15 only it's only a 15 move a couple of days

[09:07] this to come right back down to 24. um the things that their headlines about a margin call is going to get people

[09:19] excited but it's um it's not as simple as that at only pledge a certain amount of their their bitcoin so they could pledge more of it so but the fact that um people are thinking probably the same way as you

[09:34] thinking probably the same way as you joshua is um could create an interesting reading is it down below where it was when they started buying bitcoin

[09:53] no it's not so it hasn't taken out below that's interesting where they started buying bitcoin when it gapped here to 135.

[10:29] see if it actually has a little bit of a squeeze um all right so um going unfortunately all my levels and the pre-market um

[10:43] things like you know might be the only thing that's really super in play and so people are piling in um it was actually around twelve dollars when i was writing up the game plan ah let's see here

[11:08] it's it's now got back to this is the ipo price so um doesn't mean it can't be good you know today um but from the ipo price you might see like a flush

[11:20] at least down to r2 that might become support right here that might become support right here what's r113

[11:33] mean definitely the best move was the break in the free market from just above uh when it started to hold above i said 830 when i was holding above inflection um and it's traded 10 million shares so

[11:47] really liquid um people a lot of newer traders ask about market like this is kind of what you want stocks to look like that you're just a lot of volume very tight ranges here these little

[12:01] probably just like lead prints from from back here [Music] just like really tight got really tight above inflection and then just once it got above 13 that's your

[12:14] confirmation that it's probably you know you want to see how that can go um it did fail at r2 initially it came back and that will be here's it came back and that will be here's where you're

[12:26] on the sheet because the fluid's too low chairs i'll take a quick second look at it um i think that's most likely a wall street bats pump situation but you know so you

[12:39] but probably won't go to get shares to short it um but yeah darling other than trading like the market etf's dawn it's the way to go i put coin on here because it's back down to where it was the day after

[12:51] earnings when it was in the 40s and rallied back up um it's pretty amazing that a gap filled to 80 and now with crypto meltdown it's back down into the so let's see here

[13:11] um [Music] i guess if this double bottoms here like 55 to 60 would kind of be the upside this maybe becomes resistance now and this forms like a downtrend here

[13:26] but definitely going to be liquid today going to do a lot of volume so that's why i put it on there and then in terms of red box

[13:40] when i just took this out consolidated let's see when it grew so it broke out be short potentially today i mean i'm not even sure if we have shares to

[13:53] short it i mean we usually get everything but it's such a low flow so if we go back to the last time it went crazy the lower high was around nineteen dollars

[14:08] seventeen athletes so it's right there um it looks like it maybe had 18 in the free market just seems like a better potential short so uh

[14:21] because those have finally been taken to the woodshed um we're looking for the mark at the bottom and have a bounce we want to see so first time microsoft so the low is around 247 so it's a couple dollars

[14:35] you want to see that get back above that level looks like it's already bounced a little bit

[14:52] so yeah if it tries to roll over on the open and it starts holding above 247 you know you got the uh just based on the pre-market action was like 133 would be what you want to use

[15:06] for um inflection divisible by 10 if it gets flushed on the open yeah let me zoom out preach so you can see what the prior low was

[15:23] i guess pretty much where it is right now it's so i guess on a relative than microsoft um hanging out above the prior low here prior level um so that's on that

[15:41] thanks for the congratulations sebastian same national initiative sebastian same national initiative sebastian spencer another assets

[15:53] it's going to be a crazy week obviously um if you're a newer trader don't worry if you miss like some big experience to look you know i go back to

[16:06] started they started before that meltdown in 2011 and so i feel like i remember shark in a row during that time period you know trading a few hundred shares you

[16:18] bucks or something like five days and i was like wow that's really good for a year maybe or something um but it's a good time period to learn so now a good day for him is like a

[16:30] thousand times that 500 times that or something um so yeah you'll learn a lot like in these volatile periods um so important oh yeah and then wednesday right um

[16:44] language is a little bit more aggressive on wednesday we'll raise by 50 basis um that'll be really interesting i think the market would like signal to say hey for months i wasn't expecting these cpi numbers to really start to work the way

[17:00] could start but really like the ones that come out in the next one to two months if those don't come down pretty dramatically um this could be this could be

[17:13] this could be this show could get a lot worse um and so um so it'll be interesting to see what his language is is there um if he says something like you know we're not happy with these numbers you know the core

[17:25] um but you know we're prepared to be as aggressive as we need to be if going forward these numbers do not show the like that so

[17:40] anyway um as always be patient and good videos they're producing for you and the trading community and please take the

[17:55] time to add your feedback in the comments section for what videos you'd like for us to produce next and what you found helpful from this video from all of us at smb train and trade well