Stock Market Selloff Deepens Even More

[00:04] Well, well, back to the grind. The stock market going nuts doodla once again. Even though Google's earnings and Arms earnings were solid. The market has a weird

[00:17] crazy distaste today for the pain of AI spend. That's probably the only thing I could see that really pissed thing I could see that really pissed people off at Google was CapEx

[00:29] explosion. But broadly, wow, the sell-off is something else. I mean, look at some of these numbers here. Uh Google, despite these fantastic earnings on this, you know, $4 trillion

[00:41] market cap company now down to 3.7. Uh you can see there was some buy the dip enthusiasm at market open. But boy, we gave up quite a bit of that. Still down 4.4% now. Uh leading the Qs to now double bottom on my 595

[00:57] line. Look at this. On 595.03, very long time. We bounced within 11 cents. We bounced right here within 30 cents.

[01:10] And we're at the line again right now. We're trying to hold this line because we keep losing every single line. The SanDisk momentum that we've had has started to U-turn. Not great. Uh we've got Bitcoin. Last

[01:25] chance, I guess, to buy your Bitcoin under now 70,000 sitting at 67. What a number. You know, I know the memes are dead now, but uh 67. Man, what a meme would have been if we hit 67 when the meme was still

[01:41] around. But anyway, Palantir, it's almost like everyone and their mom is almost like everyone and their mom is trying to take profit on Palantir. And you know, this is a stock that was all the way up at 220. We're almost down 50%

[01:53] And this is money that in the economy, people forget this. Money evaporates. When the stock market goes down, money evaporates. People have this

[02:06] false impression that some, you know, that some, you know, guy somewhere else is making the money that's being lost in the stock market. No.

[02:18] Everyone who's holding stocks in their retirement accounts, in their portfolios, and they're long-term hodlers, and actively trading or or conducting the transactions that

[02:31] All of those people are just seeing money evaporate. way up. Money gets created out of nothing. we've talked about this for like a year and a half. The worst thing that could

[02:45] happen right now is you get a sustained market crash. Because when you get a sustained market crash, you get layoffs. And layoffs cause the recession. Well, I it's already too late. You're already deep in the recession. The the real

[02:59] poopy doopy though is the numbers that we got this morning from Challenger were horrible. Uh it you know, there was so much hopium around, oh, we're going to have a a soft landing recovery. We're going to

[03:13] have, you know, what's it called? Um Uh we're going to we're going to see jobs gain again. Well, the opposite happened. You know, we we go into the actually just go download the full report. Uh and what we saw

[03:28] report. Uh and what we saw is literally the worst hiring intentions 2009. And the most layoffs in a January since And the most layoffs in a January since 2009. Challenger job cuts report January

[03:42] 25. All right, let's go pop up the actual document so we can go directly to the source here. At the same time, JOLTS had a horrible miss. We were in the course member live stream and we, you

[03:55] data came out. I mean, as I usually do, I look at the data. I'm like, I mean, it was a puke, man. That was crazy. 6.5 million versus the 7.2 JOLTS turnover. But anyway, it's not good.

[04:11] So, US-based employers announced 108,000 job cuts in January, an increase of job cuts in January, an increase of 118%.

[04:23] It's up 205% from the numbers announced in December. So, you didn't really get the layoffs in in December. People waited uh until January to do the waited uh until January to do the layoffs. Uh looks like some, you know,

[04:36] uh looks like uh generous waiting. uh generous waiting. Uh generous waiting until January to do the layoff. All right.

[04:49] Uh January is the highest total since 2009. Highest monthly total uh since October of 2005 when we had the see a high number of cuts in the first quarter, but this is a high total for

[05:06] It means that most of these plans were set at the end of 2025, signaling employees are less optimistic for 2026.

[05:18] Yeah, I kind of feel like I need to go on vacation. >> [laughter] >> I see you up. Sorry. That's funny. So, what do we got here? Transportation [clears throat]

[05:31] Uh so, the biggest layoffs due in part to UPS's layoffs. The bulk of technology layoffs came from Amazon due to the 16,000 job cuts at Amazon. So, you UPS and Amazon helped,

[05:45] crazy. Hospitals announced 17,000 job cuts in Hospitals announced 17,000 job cuts in January. The most for the industry since 2020. Now, this isn't great because

[05:59] Now, this isn't great because health care has been one of the few health care has been one of the few reliable categories for job gains. Uh health care, uh education helped add 74K jobs to an

[06:13] uh education helped add 74K jobs to an otherwise miserable ADP report otherwise miserable ADP report yesterday. lower reimbursements are hitting the health care system very difficult. Blah,

[06:29] blah, blah. Uh chemical manufacturers announced job cuts. Cited a shift to AI. Oh. you guys are seeing a slowing economy, too, then.

[06:44] too, then. Um Nothing special here. Uh in January, [clears throat] contract Uh in January, [clears throat] contract loss led the reason for job cuts.

[06:57] Followed by market and economic conditions. This is why I always say, you've been a long-time guest here, you know this. This isn't a surprise. know this. This isn't a surprise. Uh sadly, a down market leads to more

[07:11] Uh sadly, a down market leads to more layoffs. More layoffs accelerate the down market. All right? So, it's like if you want your stock to go up, don't fire people cuz as soon as everybody fires people, you go into a recession.

[07:24] So, it's like you try to save save the just makes everything worse in aggregate That's and that's why recessions occur because everybody has to

[07:38] act in a self-interested manner, which which is normal. It's capitalism. But think also you're getting this insane profit taking on companies like Palantir, which has this really, really ridiculous valuation still today.

[07:51] probably a $60 stock. Uh and and that's not to diss on Palantir. It's just to say the valuation compared to other stocks is insane. Whatever, right? Uh so,

[08:06] remarkable overall here. Let's take a look at the Qs. A little bit of a recovery here. Look at that bounce on the 595. Wow. You got to love the lines. Uh I think this morning we had also a bunch of bond payments go out. Oh, yeah,

[08:21] I love this. This is so cool. Yeah, we had bond payments go out. I'm just looking at this. $849, $116, $166, $116, $166, $104, $166, $208, $166, $104, $160. I

[08:35] literally have like over 100. It's like it says 99 plus for somebody. somebody. 125, 125, 125, 125, 166, 80 833.

[08:47] 125, 125, 125, 125, 166, 80 833. Uh 104, 833, 416, 250, 1500. Uh this is crazy. Like I I don't want to cuz you can see all the names, so I don't want to show it too far, but it's kind of crazy. It's like these are

[09:02] all Mercury payment notifications. So, it's kind of like those I always joke, it's like the old days when when got all these checks going out from our rents. It's like, yeah, we're doing it

[09:17] electronically. Like every single one of those notifications is is a check. it stopped right there. Just that's crazy. Uh anyway, it's kind of cool. It's just electronic boom, gone.

[09:31] That's cool. Uh all right, so let's let's go see. I there on the Qs right now, but let's finish this Challenger report here.

[09:45] Okay, we've got AI was cited for 7,600 job cuts. That's not actually that much, right? That's uh that's actually relatively low. Bonds are doing

[09:57] you're talking about with bonds. I did see the 10-2 increase about one bip today. Oh, wow. The 10 years down 6-4. Oh, it's up two now. Yeah, dude. That gets you closer to recession. It's the slowest

[10:14] closer to recession. It's the slowest coming recession ever. You know, I met somebody somebody's last name was Slow And I'm like they were getting married. And I'm like

[10:27] dude, you should take her last name. >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> Uh

[10:40] it. But it's not Slow Um two year. Yeah, the two years falling harder than the 10 right now. Hence why you're getting this.

[10:55] you're getting this. Uh KPEG for PATH? Sure. Uh KPEG for PATH? Sure. Uh KPEG on PATH right now is Uh KPEG on PATH right now is PATH PATH PATH PATH PATH PATH PATH.

[11:07] 1.14. 1.14. All right, what else we have here? AI tariffs tariffs barely. That So,

[11:21] relatively low for AI and tariff layoffs. pretty low. Oh, hey, how's the It's time to think

[11:35] about a vacation again. So, um yeah, it's been too long since I've had a vacation. What's the weather like? Is it snowing anywhere yet?

[11:47] Look at this. You get one day of snow next week in uh in Park City. Where's the snow? I need like a 10-day forecast. Saturday the 14th, you get snow. There's the snow.

[12:02] Yeah, Tuesday, Wednesday. Uh Saturday, Sunday, some fresh snow. Okay. Okay. Valentine's Day weekend. How about snow? You know, why why talk about the market

[12:17] when we can talk about the snow? Snow showers and same thing as uh as Utah. All right, so not this weekend, but maybe next weekend. Okay, cool. All right, back to Challenger. Uh let's see. Hiring plans. Oh, yeah,

[12:34] this was also trash. Last month employers announced 5,300 hiring plans. The lowest total since Challenger began tracking in 2009. Oh, crap.

[12:52] I know where Brighton is. I've been to Brighton before. I'll come to You know, you can actually get like

[13:04] Barbara direct to Salt Lake City and then you can go to Brighton. It's not a bad idea, honestly. But uh no, I got to go to Heber. I got a I got a pro house hack project. We're developing land. I really should

[13:18] today? I should do my video today because, you know, our our um investment round closes tomorrow. So, wouldn't it be logical to like talk don't know, but no but I don't know that anybody cares about it. You know, it's

[13:32] going to get like 400 views. So, nobody's going to care. Um I don't know. Whatever. So, pour yourself some tea here. So, lowest hiring plans isn't great. Uh

[13:46] Uh let's see here. Prior last month total So, the lowest January uh prior to last month total, 2023 saw the lowest January. Okay, down 13% same as last year, 49%

[14:01] since December. Yeah, this is a trash report. Trash trash report. Somebody says Titanic video. Dude, that Titanic video was clutch, man. That Titanic video like the fact

[14:15] that it called the stable coin collapse and then you had Terra Luna blow up. That was crazy. That Titanic video was fun. Who remembers that? Got so demonetized on that Titanic

[14:27] Got so demonetized on that Titanic video, but it was so worth it. That was uh the market is crashing like the Titanic. We did two versions of it. Oh, it was so fun. Uh

[14:40] What Let's see what we Uh You got to go watch it yourself. The one. And uh

[14:54] Powell, you know, the Fed is over here for those of you who haven't seen it. The Fed's over here. My gosh, it was so fast. >> It's J Powell freaking out. We got to get rates out faster. Oh,

[15:09] Look at what crashed. You ready for this? So, this was We did this video in like January of 2022. And like these things hadn't happened yet, which was weird because like we didn't actually see SPACs and stable coins destroyed

[15:25] yet. So, it was predictive. Uh And then of course people copied my my video, but whatever. Um SPACs get hosed. Then we get small caps hosed.

[15:41] he doesn't know what the hell's going on. >> Uh This is great. What What where's Nancy Pelosi? This is Wall Street Bets everybody in the poor lower levels.

[15:55] >> Here are the hedge funds and the short sellers. They're all getting on the lifeboats first while all retail stuck on the >> [laughter] >> Oh my gosh. Uh where's Jim Cramer? Jim

[16:09] Cramer's coming up. There's Ken from Citadel pushing a lady over. >> [laughter] >> He's sailing on the toilet. Here's Jim Cramer. Jim Cramer's the mu- musician. Buy, EVERYTHING IS OKAY.

[16:23] [snorts] >> OH, NO. NO. Nancy Pelosi outside. >> [laughter] >> Pensions and 401Ks bond investors rising yields.

[16:39] Oh, man, this is dirty. PEG. Now, that that's the that's the stable coin PEG. Uh and it wasn't Tether. I got that wrong. It was Terra Luna that ended up collapsing. But I thought it was funny

[16:52] because, you know, it's it's tethered. Get it? Tether PEG stable coins. >> [laughter] >> Yield farmers crushed.

[17:05] crushed. Oh, man, what a freaking movie. Crypto >> survived, you know? They got the lifeboats. Retail. Where was um Where's Oh, China defaults. Get it? Oh, this was ridiculous.

[17:19] >> [laughter] >> Oh, man. The accuracy is comical. Yeah, it was it was crazy. It was crazy. Look at when I posted that. January of 2021.

[17:32] January 2021. You know how many people got pissed at me for this? Everybody got so pissed at me. They're like, how dare you proje- you know, predict the market's going to go up. It went down for another nine months. It

[17:45] So, uh yeah. uh yeah. Anyway. Ah, that was fun. You should be able to find it. Just type in um The market is crashing like the

[17:59] Titanic part one. Market is crashing like the Titanic part Uh I even did a part two, a very short version of part two. version of part two. Uh I don't think it did as well, but uh

[18:15] I I I want to play this part cuz it was this this This this guy, he's like, "Hey, hurry up." And so we called it the impatient This part I think this part was hilarious. Ready for this?

[18:31] hilarious. Ready for this? Hey, damn it. That's five compartments. five. >> [laughter] >> The ship can stay afloat with 3 to 4% inflation, not seven. The ship will go

[18:45] down. Not five. The ship goes down by the head. The water will spill over the tops of the Stock crash, crypto crash, and everything. Okay, I don't want to get

[18:57] demon. Raise rates. Should we like, you know, close the ballast or whatever? They buy us time. The ship will sink. The pumps We open the doors. The pumps buy you time, but minutes only. From this moment [laughter]

[19:10] I don't know what to do. Titanic will founder. THE MARKET WILL CRASH. >> [laughter] fun with the freaking Titanic stuff. I'm sorry. It's It's so It's so ridiculous.

[19:25] And it was It's scary like looking back at it how accurate it was. at it how accurate it was. Um but uh whatever, you know, it's Uh that's the past. So, uh okay, so it

[19:38] seems like things are stable around 595, which is great. I mean, we've we're like quadruple bottoming right here at 595, which is pretty remarkable. Uh and uh you know, Tesla, look at that. Uh you've got um

[19:52] 391 now on Tesla. We've got Oh, even Cloudflare's honestly ratio now on Cloudflare? Cuz cybersecurity's been really hard to get it's still a four PEG. So technically,

[20:07] Cloudflare. Uh, and and that's where your buy target is. So uh, O has been on a steady rise. trying to diversify away. You know what you're getting is Oh, wow. What you're

[20:20] actually seeing a lot of is you're seeing people go into Walmart, Lockheed Martin, JP Morgan, uh, real estate. You know, I think we we're at like $8 million raised in the last uh,

[20:34] 30 days. Uh, and you know, we only did this little brief extension right here, uh, which is closing tomorrow uh, night. Just thank goodness. I can finally stop talking about it for a second time. Um, read the offering circular as not a

[20:48] solicitation. But uh, yeah. It you know, people are trying to diversify away. It makes sense. I mean, the market's losing its mind right now. That just the Challenger report. If you haven't followed me on X yet, follow me

[21:01] there. You can follow me on uh, Instagram at uh, Meet Kevin as well. But I posted this on X. I wrote uh, "JOLTS job openings big miss I wrote uh, "JOLTS job openings big miss at 6.54 million versus the 7.25

[21:13] expected. The same morning we got the worst layoffs reports since 2009 and the worst hiring forecast since 2009." Now, if I can go look at if I can go look at Let me see here. Uh, if I go look at

[21:27] the actual JOLTS details. Job openings. Here we go. Job openings fell to 6.54. Let's go update some of those notes. there we go.

[21:42] there we go. So, the JOLTS report said

[21:54] um, Let's clean that up a little bit. I got

[22:06] 6.9 28 versus 7.416. a quits rate of 2%.

[22:32] 1.1% stable. Stable. So, you had a downward revision and the big miss of the top line. BLS data shows. Yeah, and the surveys, you know, survey range was

[22:47] 7 to 7.407. Uh, 6.54 divided by 7. That is a 6.5%

[22:59] divided by 7. That is a 6.5% miss from bottom of forecast. All right? So, not great. Not great. Uh, you get this data on the Meet Kevin app, by the way. It's totally free. And uh, you also get daily wealth

[23:11] cool daily wealth insights. You know, it's that's free That stuff's free. So, free. Uh, yeah. Okay, cool. So, let's go now.

[23:24] Realty, huh? Look at that. Uh, real estate booming. Good old real estate. All right. Still trying to hold onto All right, let's go see what's the news today. I mean, other than the news we've

[23:38] already covered. Yeah, the Anthropic ad was hilarious uh, with the ad. That was hilarious. It's a little disingenuous, but it it was hilarious. Cuz that you know, that's not how they I

[23:52] they're going to integrate them, but it was it was definitely hilarious. really you know, I'm not the biggest fan of Sam Altman. Um, I think he's a shyster. But uh, uh, it was hilarious.

[24:06] Trump administration to make it easier to fire 50,000 federal workers. Man, huh? Uh, Trump administration is planning to make it easier to discipline and potentially fire career officials in

[24:20] potentially fire career officials in senior positions. Wow, that would affect that doesn't necessarily mean they're going to fire all of those people. higher-ranking career employees whose work focuses on executing administrative

[24:35] policies. Workers who fall in that category would no longer be subject to rules that for decades have set a high bar for firing employees. While considered at will, career employees

[24:48] being at the government, which is interesting because I think the government can get away with paying lower salaries because of the job security that they create. But if you rug pull the job security,

[25:00] uh, then you probably have to pay higher wages, right? Like that's one of the reasons people like the government. Uh, and I I here shilling the government. I'm just talking like second order effects.

[25:14] You're probably going to have to now pay higher wages to actually attract talent. Workers who fall into the new category wouldn't be able to appeal to the board. Wow, you can't even appeal your firing. Wow.

[25:28] The deep state is undermining his agenda. Is Donald Trump's opinion. Wow.

[25:43] pretext to oust government workers whose political views are at odds with the president. Of course. Anybody who disagrees with the president gets fired.

[25:58] All right. Let's I want to see the comments on this one. Excellent. Everyone in the public sector should be at will. Yeah, and that's that's fine. Like I understand that as a as a popular opinion. Again, you're just

[26:10] as a popular opinion. Again, you're just going to have to pay higher wages.

[26:22] Uh, I'm a federal employee. I can name scores of underperforming incapable folks. Well, you get to clean it up if you if if if that's the case, but is it or you just firing people who don't agree with you politically? Well,

[26:36] Uh, yeah. for the government. Okay. So, let's see here. Uh,

[26:51] Uh, let's see. Nasdaq. Spotify? Spotify. Spot spot spot spot spot.

[27:04] separately. Uh, anyway, uh, okay, let's uh, let's see first here what we have. Meet the non-tech firms betting big on Meet the non-tech firms betting big on AI.

[27:20] prepares to IPO. I saw this. They want to try to sneak it into the indexes because they want or the indices, they want the maximum liquidity to dump these shares, man. Uh,

[27:33] Uh, let's see here. Let's see. Fed Cook focused on inflation risk.

[27:46] Inflation risk will evaporate if the economy continues that like if the market continues to tank. Cuz that'll just pull the market down. Hopefully not. Hopefully it just stabilizes. And so far it's stable on the day. Selling

[27:58] seems to be hopefully mostly over. What we got here? Uh, data center buildout. General contractor in 2024 expect data center contractor in 2024 expect data center units would grow.

[28:15] giants are changing America from the top down. Spending sprees of construction boom. Eye-popping valuations. Yes, we know it's a bubble. know it's a bubble. Okay.

[28:35] touched a record set during the dot-com bubble. Wow. Corning for fiber optics. That's incredible.

[28:47] incredible. That's so like deep in the supply chain. and they're turning uh, their jet engine into a natural gas turbine.

[29:00] into a natural gas turbine. It's incredible. Yeah. They This was a really smart pivot for them in my opinion. Really smart.

[29:24] Yeah. Okay. Okay. Let's try this uh, SpaceX piece. Elon Musk is seeking an early boost for shares of SpaceX.

[29:37] Advisers for the company have reached out to index providers including Nasdaq to discuss how SpaceX might join key indices sooner than Oh, interesting. What is this? Companies typically must

[29:51] their public debut before gaining inclusion. Right. Inclusion unlocks access to retail and institutional capital. Traditional waiting period is intended

[30:03] they are stable and liquid enough to handle the buying from index funds. SpaceX hopes to skirt traditional rules. I mean, that's very Elon. shareholders sooner sooner. Yeah, cuz I think Elon knows he needs to

[30:20] dump a bunch of shares so he could keep funding so he could keep funding his businesses.

[30:36] to update some of the Nasdaq 100 mythology as for participants. Among the proposals are the fast entry process. There it is. Companies whose market cap ranks in the top 40 of the Nasdaq 100

[30:49] ranks in the top 40 of the Nasdaq 100 could be added within 15 days. Wow, man. Holy smokes. Current valuation, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Current valuation, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic would all qualify. Remarkable.

[31:21] track option. So, it'd be like the Qs. OpenAI is laying the groundwork for a fourth quarter IPO as it races Anthropic to list publicly. OpenAI is hoping to raise $100 billion

[31:35] OpenAI is hoping to raise $100 billion before the IPO. investing. I specifically look for index C's indices that exclude fly-by-night

[31:50] companies that are quick to fade. Well, I don't think SpaceX is fly-by-night, but you know, maybe uh maybe OpenAI. Uh massive grifts the American the average American will never benefit

[32:02] from. Wild. That's quite interesting though. It really shows you how much pressure there is to raise capital. Uh people are frustrated just by the lack of liquidity.

[32:16] Oh, no. I want the new gaming chip. I literally It's so funny. 2 days ago, I'm "Hey, the 5090 is the best chip, right? was thinking. And then sure enough, 2 days after I

[32:32] asked that question mentally, what is this? Nvidia to delay new chip gaming chip. By the way, I forgot I have this talking about chips. I have this chip on my desk. It should be on my shoulder. You know, a

[32:45] little chip on my shoulder right here. This pissed me off. This little thing. Yesterday, remember we had an HVAC guy who came in to uh to to do some work and I had to like get up and and deal with it or whatever. He broke this.

[32:59] This is a the door switch. So, here is a button uh and then here is the uh circuit, right? So, power goes in on one side and only way that works is if that switch is pressed down.

[33:13] So, it's like you know, 9:00 yesterday or or 8:00 or babies are down uh and Lauren's like, "Kevin, the air conditioner doesn't work and it's hot like anything upstairs." Hot day today

[33:27] going to be pissed. They're going to wake up screaming in the middle of the night cuz they're too hot. Uh so uh I go up there and take the door off and I see this broken. I'm like, >> [sighs and gasps]

[33:41] >> Anyway, cut cut bypass tape it up. I got it safety switches. They're there for a reason. So, the system can't operate or you know, somebody's up there or whatever. So, I got to buy a new one,

[33:54] how I got on that. I'm talking about So anyway, Nvidia to delay new gaming chip due to memory chips shortage. Nvidia won't release a new graphics card for gamers. Bastards. Pissed.

[34:09] Uh I guess I'm stuck with the 5090. Global memory chip shortage. Wow. Yeah, I mean, Arm talked about that yesterday too. You know, Arm and um what's it called? Um Google. It'll be the first year in three

[34:24] decades that Nvidia hasn't released a new graphics processing units. Wow. The new graphics processing units. Wow. The first year in three decades. They used to have a new chip every year since the '90s. Wow.

[34:41] Nvidia slashing production of its current line of gaming chips, RTX 50 current line of gaming chips, RTX 50 GPUs because of the shortage. already risen at retail stores and websites because of the scarcity over

[34:56] the past year. Demand for RTX strong, memory supply is constrained. You're doing electrician's job. You're taking my work.

[35:10] Sorry. Hey, if you're an electrician, you should know about Knipex tools. You ever use the Knipex electrical tools? These are the These are like some of the best electrical tools you can get your

[35:24] hands on in my opinion. Next to like Festool for like drills and stuff. 1,000 V insulated. They're really expensive. You pay like 30 bucks per expensive. You pay like 30 bucks per tool. But uh these are fantastic tools.

[35:37] and and screwdrivers stuff. I know, it's just a screwdriver, but like craftsmen know about these. And what I really like for the electricians is see how they purposefully have the insulation going all the way up to the tip so you don't

[35:50] >> get a little shocking experience when you go uh you know, putting outlets or It's kind of cool. There's a competitor too. Both of those are German brands. There's a competitor, this one uh is another competitor to them. Very

[36:05] don't know if it's worth the money. But anyway, so I've got a bunch of them, but anyway, so I've got a bunch of them, but but um cuz it's like a treat to myself. It's stupid. Don't do it. Do as I say, not as

[36:18] Someone says, "I'm a plumber. I've used those pliers. Best pliers I've ever owned." Oh, let's go. That's awesome. Um to higher prices for consumer electronics. Apple complained about

[36:32] memory chips having an impact on margins. Hinted that the impact would be greater in the future noting that we continue to see market pricing for memory increasing significantly. Uh it's just wild.

[36:45] So, the memory boom ends up crushing margins down the line. Yeah, I mean, gaming is a small portion of the rev though, right? Uh reduce. Yeah, small fraction of the revenue cuz like 89% of their revenue my

[36:59] last check it was 89 to 90% of their revenue comes from data center chips. revenue comes from data center chips. So, it doesn't really matter.

[37:11] anyway. That's fair. Okay, fine. That's fair. Okay, fine. Fine. No new Nvidia chip this year.

[37:23] chat on. Here, let me open up poverty chat for y'all uh cuz yesterday we just had to deal with those crypto scammers. So, we put it on Let's uh let's open it up.

[37:41] Let's see what everybody's thinking today. There we go. All right. Unleash the floodgates.

[37:54] All right. What else? So, we're still sitting at um still at that line on the Qs. Still at the line. >> Max says, "Let the poverty breathe."

[38:10] Joe says, "Ew, the poor." Stop. Stop. Uh okay, all right. see what the FT is doing. And what's silver up to? Y'all take a look at this.

[38:25] give your children? Ah, man. You know, the vaccine thing is such a personal thing because you know, like people do just kind of drop dead. Uh and myocarditis did kill people.

[38:40] times people will get a regular vaccine and and then you know, somebody dies and uh it's not even related to the vaccine. It's just timing was just coincidental. But that's just the nature of it when

[38:52] people get a lot of vaccines. Um but broadly, you know, we we follow the standard recommendations. Like we give our kids the hep vaccines and like polio our kids the hep vaccines and like polio vaccines and measles and you know, um

[39:04] obviously Tdap uh which adults should get vaccinated as well uh for Tdap before uh interacting with a child. Um MMR. Like these things Those These are very important in my opinion. And the

[39:18] the odds of of something going wrong are very very low. Like COVID is like a stupid one obviously at this point. It's like the common cold. But um anyway, you asked. Sorry. Yeah, silver. Well, I mean,

[39:31] this this frenzy uh and we talked about it. You know, in the alpha report this very day and you go back and look at it. Uh it was it? It was

[39:45] It was the Friday. Yeah, yeah, it was right here, here-ish. 6 6:25 a.m. Oh, well, that's that's Eastern time. So, it's actually like right here. Silver was at like 105. Uh, and after Warsh was chosen, I said

[40:01] that this is the top for silver and gold. Like this is the top because Warsh kind of reduces the need for that. And uh, we haven't recovered anywhere close off even more. This has a lot to do with Warsh. And Warsh is not going to bail us

[40:14] out of the um uh, the recession as easily as as anyone else. Tdap, what is that one? Tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis. I'm pretty sure that's what it is. I'm not a doctor. Tetanus, diphtheria, and

[40:29] Boom, baby. Yeah. Tdap vaccines protect against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis. children. You know, some of these things can kill them. And then, you know, we

[40:43] family has asthma. So, like anything especially with breathing, you know, is kind of important. Bitcoin falls 70k. Uh, let's see here. Mhm.

[40:58] Suncor plant just sh 19 the bad oil production coming from oil sands. Where plant? Yeah, I don't know anything so much Yeah, I don't know anything so much about oil, I have to say. Suncor Energy.

[41:15] stock-wise. But um So, uh, okay, let's take a look. Morgan uh

[41:30] shorts uh, rumor as well, which I don't think is a rumor. I I think it's true. I think JP Morgan definitely has something to do there. But I think that just that's uh, a causation versus correlation. Like

[41:44] think JP Morgan shorts just correlated with the Warsh announcement as a turning point, right? So, I think both could be true.

[41:57] I just I I don't do commodities. I just want I I'm always transparent about this on the channel. Like I'm not a commodity guy. You know, I I like things that have big peepee and and commodities don't by nature of them. They they can go through

[42:10] cycles of peepee. Like memory chips are in that cycle right now, but it won't last. Uh, let's see here. All right, anything Uh, let's see here. All right, anything else here? We talked about the job cuts.

[42:25] It's not just a tech sell-off. What is this? can still have tea. Uh, okay, what is this? Good morning. Alphabet reported blah blah blah. Mind-boggling figure that blew past

[42:41] expectations, the stock fell. I think it's a little more. What is it down What has Google stabilized yet? Yeah, 4%. Still at 4%. It's pretty stable. Mhm. Kissing that line, huh?

[42:54] Jeez. All right. Uh, so let's go over here. Not just tech and not just this week. S&P down 1.3, okay. Index blah blah blah. What are they trying to say here? Apple has risen

[43:10] quite well. Uh, nominally, what's happening is a tech sell-off sparked first by the possibility that AI tools may compete with uh, business software, second by weak earnings from Qualcomm and AMD.

[43:26] I mean, they weren't that weak at AMD, but all right. The market is undergoing a structural shift. We have seen a reversal of shift. We have seen a reversal of factors.

[43:41] and low valuations and a high return on equity did well yesterday. dividend yield, book to market. Yeah, this is like when you have assets like

[43:54] real estate, you know, your book value is close to uh, to what what the actual company valuation is. You're not selling for this crazy premium, right? The risk premium when risk premium goes up, those

[44:06] valuation multiples compress rapidly. Uh, like not book value multiples, but uh, sales multiples or otherwise. Uh, let's see here. Flip-flop sectoral leadership, a reversal that has accelerated. We've got

[44:27] staples, energy, health care, materials up. Well, materials is probably driven still heavily by silver and gold. This is 2000. An ominous idea making the rounds

[44:44] resembles that shift that occurred in 2000. Uh-oh. A few months ahead of the dot-com crash. Uh-oh. The ugly episode can be captured by growth and value indices. Growth had been crushing value in the second half

[44:58] of 1999, but started to falter in February of 2000, a month before the wider market peaked in March. And long before the broad market started falling hard in September. In this chart, a rising line shows growth

[45:13] outperforming value. Okay. Growth wins, growth wins, growth wins. And all of a growth wins, growth wins. And all of a sudden, uh, value starts coming back. sudden, uh, value starts coming back. Let's hope it doesn't rhyme either.

[45:29] Yeah, cuz now we're seeing that same chart come down. Uh, interesting. dot-com boom in that it is led by big profitable companies, not hopes and profitable companies, not hopes and dreams. Well, OpenAI might

[45:41] beg to differ on that one. Yeah, just saying. Yeah, just saying. Okay. "Will this affect me in 10 years?" Well, maybe because, you know, it took 10

[45:55] years the last time you had a recession to to Well, in the dot-com bubble to uh, to the Great Recession, it took like 10 years. I think it took as much as 30 It took like 13 years uh, to recover.

[46:09] So wild. Yeah, zoom out to the day chart. You're right, tech is not 34. So, an RSI of 34 is getting to oversold.

[46:21] Oversold would technically be 30 if you want to be perfect, right? want to be perfect, right? Uh, Palantir is sitting at 25. Yeah, so Palantir on a technical basis is indicating oversold. It does look

[46:34] rebound. Look how solid that line is, baby. Let's go. Okay. All right, let's go here.

[46:50] volatility and at worst a sustained correction. Well, then they get into other articles. All right, what else? So, we got the information. We got

[47:02] We got uh, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg. uh, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg. CNBC's I just want to see that 210. It's at 73. Okay, so it's it's pretty stable over here. Then if I jump to

[47:18] stable over here. Then if I jump to Let's go to the Economist.

[47:34] continue? Pressure mounting on blah blah blah. Elon Musk is betting his empire on AI. Right. Which I I think is a mistake. Like you're betting on a commodity uh, of of you know, LLM.

[47:54] Iran this weekend. It seems like they're uh, they're really uh Uh, although the meeting is supposed to apparently take place uh, this Friday. So, we'll we'll see. All right, let's see what the Times has.

[48:08] see what the Times has. Let's go. I think we did do Berg, but we'll double-check really quick. Oh, I don't remember this. Oh, wow. Look at this. The Winklevosses

[48:21] The Winklevosses uh, at Gemini cut 25% of their staff. Dude, their stock has gotten destroyed. I honestly think Gemini has been one of I honestly think Gemini has been one of the worst-performing IPOs ever.

[48:37] Oh, dude, look at that. Holy smokes, man. This company went from $45.8 a share down to $6.83.

[48:52] Ah. 85% collapse, man. Holy mokas. collapse, man. Holy mokas. Oh. workforce and wind down operations in the UK and Australia. Now, how much

[49:09] money did they lose in market cap? Market cap Oh, they're less than a billion-dollar company. Oh my gosh. Gemini's at $811 million of Oh my gosh. Gemini's at $811 million of A MARKET CAP. OH.

[49:24] OH, NASTY. Somebody's asking for an Affirm prediction. Well, Affirm has recovered very well since 2022 uh, you know, because the consumer has been so resilient. The problem here in the near term is your recessionary

[49:38] Uh, But those aren't manifested yet. These earnings on a firm are going to be from a strong Q4. I don't know how much of that is already expected by markets though. That's why I hate betting on earnings because it's like yeah, it

[49:51] spending was through the roof on retail sales. But is how much of that's already priced in, right? That's the That's why playing earnings is is is is roulette.

[50:06] is is is is roulette. Cuts will impact as many as 200 roles. Foreign markets have proven hard to win. Oopsies.

[50:21] do they hold? Let me see. I have uh I could go to my Bitcoin loss to gap. Gemini should be in here, right? There it is. Gemini holds 4,000 Bitcoin.

[50:36] Uh this was as of Q3 2025. And Gemini Yeah, they're here at um another loss of about 60 million bucks here

[50:50] on just crypto prices going down. Wait, but we're actually even lower now. I have to update this. So that was the Feb 4 with $73,000. 4 with $73,000. We're actually at 67 six right now.

[51:02] We're actually at 67 six right now. So now I have to change this to 67 600. And now the losses are going to be even worse.

[51:15] is at a $112 million loss right here. And MicroStrategy $18 billion.

[51:28] MicroStrategy $18 billion. Tesla $322 million. Tesla $322 million. Wow, man. Wow. Where's GameStop? Wow, man. Wow. Where's GameStop? GameStop another 131.

[51:41] Where's uh How's Alt5? Is it at zero yet? Nope, not not at zero yet. Getting to zero. Okay.

[51:54] Hey, the Q's balance is holding. That line is glorious. Look at this. We got about 10 minutes here of uh green right now. Does that mean Google's going up Little bit of recovery. So a little bit of a push here. Very good for for uh

[52:07] y'all trading. Is this around midday again? Uh almost. 11:24, 11:25. So uh we'll see. What are they saying about Qualcomm? do everything. And what what

[52:20] people are actually liking this memory situation is actually helpful. They like that we have a very innovative memory architecture that we don't have to use architecture that we don't have to use HBM in the data center. And uh

[52:33] the conversations are going Sales pitch. >> humane where we move on The guy looks he's acting confident. >> workloads they're moving to their data center being validated on our platform

[52:46] and it's going exactly as planned. All right. Keep us up to date here at CNBC on that. Cristiano Amon, uh fresh off of earnings with some challenges not in Cristiano, thank you. Thank you. Sarah?

[53:01] So that was Qualcomm, right? Oh, look, it's Sarah. Hi, Sarah. Black turtleneck. Oh, yeah, dude. The guy's sh 19 bricks. Uh stock's down 7% TODAY AT QUALCOMM.

[53:16] OH. OH, LOOK AT THAT, DUDE. QUALCOMM. OH, LOOK AT THAT, DUDE. QUALCOMM. It was up at 204. It's now down 137. It was up at 204. It's now down 137. Wow, 33% evaporated.

[53:29] Oh. Somebody says, "I laughed when you said you'd buy Bitcoin when Saylor went bankrupt." That seems more probable now. Yeah. I I'm I you know, I don't want to dump on

[53:41] Saylor anymore. I think I've I think I've dumped on the poor guy so much. Um I think the the biggest one to be really cautious of by the way is this is probably going to be the first that goes

[53:54] insolvent is Stretch, STRC. At the bottom of all my alpha reports I say, you know, this this is this is the dangerous one. dangerous one. Uh

[54:16] All right. >> [clears throat] >> Okay. Let's keep going here. All right. Good.

[54:31] expects plans to be substantially complete in the first half. Some more They'll take some pre-restructuring charges, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

[54:43] SpaceX should have bought Anduril. Bro, I don't know that they could they could probably afford them. Anduril, that's I want shares in that company. I agree Whatever happened to the guy that said

[54:55] will hit What is it? The 90k again? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. folks? Isn't Wasn't that the irony of it? Uh Meet Kevin. Uh holy smokes.

[55:09] 90,000. Cuz [clears throat] we we did so many of Cuz [clears throat] we we did so many of these. There it is. So we did we did so many of these

[55:24] screenshots and it all quote tweeted back to I think we did have like a chain >> [laughter] >> It quote tweeted It was the original one

[55:36] goes to Cameron Winklevoss. Winklevoss. We just saw their company laying off people. This is the last time you'll ever be able to buy Bitcoin below $90,000 in November. Yeah, well, it's below 70 now.

[55:49] Oh. >> [snorts] money even if MicroStrategy blows up." Oh, yeah. Michael Saylor is wealthy

[56:01] beyond means because I think he's diversified in a smart way into real estate. You know, he's bought himself a lot of properties and real estate and things outside of Bitcoin. So if he's right he keeps winning. If he's wrong,

[56:15] uh Yeah. That's uh the game, I guess. All right, what

[56:28] else on Bloomberg? Yeah, thanks whoever mentioned I should go to Doomberg. I guess I kind of did forget about this. Uh

[56:42] That's funny. They were in our Titanic video. bucks. Oh my gosh, dude. It's down 23%.

[56:54] Holy moly. I remember in the course member live stream uh in uh at the end of last year, Palantir was skyrocketing to $10. And we did an analysis on their fundamentals. We're like, "Guys,

[57:07] would you buy this? This is This is purely momentum." Sure enough. Purely momentum. It's down like 60% since then. The fundamentals do matter over time.

[57:27] on March cut not a bad place to be. Yeah, we'll see about that. Bitcoin trails the S&P 500 or and gold over a five-year time horizon. Wow, look at that. Over a Cathie Wood five-year period, Bitcoin now trails the S&P 500,

[57:40] period, Bitcoin now trails the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and gold. Wow.

[57:53] Well, if the economy slows down too, oil oil won't be great. Affordable housing starts in the labor market. I don't know, whatever. They're still renewing.

[58:05] Public breakup with Wells Fargo. Whatever. card. That's what you need. Like the recession defense credit card. You know, like nobody has that. It probably nobody will use it. But

[58:21] probably nobody will use it. But it like it like locks you into like, I don't know, six-month Treasuries. And it it could I mean, think about it. Think about this, okay? So you have a credit card.

[58:33] And every time you spend with it, the money gets locked into T-bills. You know, so shorter than one year in in in duration, basically Uh they could be three months, six months, whatever. So all your reward

[58:46] points, you know, your 2%, 3% cash back, whatever it is, it all gets locked into those Treasuries. And you're not allowed to redeem those points unless we are in official NBER-declared recession.

[58:59] bottom of the market hits, everybody's panicking and freaking out. As we round out out of the recession, all your rewards cash unlocks. You know, it it would like the coolest rainy day fund ever. I don't think

[59:12] really cool. >> [laughter] >> [laughter] >> Uh

[59:26] Pessimist guide to the credit boom. What do they mean? opportunity is right now? I only want large cap." I mean, I always think, you know,

[59:41] these these mag seven companies have sold off so much. some of these, and not just those, but also FANG, you know, so so go back to the original FANG. So, FANG is Facebook.

[59:57] Uh Facebook, I think is great. Apple, it's expensive, unfortunately. and Google. All right? There's your original FANG. You can even include original FANG. You can even include Amazon if you go FANG.

[1:00:14] companies, and some of these are getting cheap like Microsoft. It's remarkable honestly. Uh and I hate Microsoft. I I really hate Uh and I hate Microsoft. I I really hate Microsoft. But, uh

[1:00:28] yeah, those are large. You know, you have to have balls of steel to buy mortgage companies like Rocket Mortgage, but I think um companies end end up getting rewarded, especially if the economy does end up

[1:00:41] which could self-fulfill from an from a stock market selling down. Uh but, uh hey man, not personalized financial advice. Don't sue me, bro. Look at that bounce, man. That is so

[1:00:54] Look at that bounce, man. That is so delicious. What a great bounce. What a great bounce. Bounce. All right, I'll see you here.

[1:01:12] The risk of more than a decade of loose lending came clear on September 28th. A little-known company called First Brands suddenly filed for bankruptcy. Right. First Brands lenders included investment funds, Jefferies, UBS failure.

[1:01:27] Both suffered a black eye. Then Tricolor revealed a moment. Uh most of these borrowers are privately owned, shielding them from the scrutiny regulators. Right. The lending frenzy

[1:01:42] is a byproduct of rules intended to curb the kind of risk-taking by banks that almost sank us in 2008. Right, so all the risky lending just moved to private the risky lending just moved to private credit instead of the banks.

[1:01:57] because I think you get a V-shape on mortgage companies. Like, if you go into a recession, mortgage companies will crash as well. crash, and if you didn't allocate before the crash to mortgage companies, you're

[1:02:10] if we do have a recession, rates will go back to zero. You will have the you will literally have a the the largest refinancing boom in in like 25 years, in a quarter of a century. You will have the largest refinancing boom in more

[1:02:25] than a generation. Uh if the economy goes into recession, rates go zero, which I think they will. Uh and uh refinancing, oh my gosh, the money that's going to be made there is going to be insane. Uh I just got my

[1:02:39] lending license for House Hack. Well, I need to activate it. Uh but, um uh myself and and, you know, uh someone else on the team, we we got

[1:02:51] our lending licenses. We're like, "What should we do now? Let's get our lending license." No, it's just it's it's more prep for like if the economy hits bottom, like it's too late to start a mor- mortgage business when rates go

[1:03:03] to zero or like a a HELOC business, right? Like, you know how we do in our Reinvest AI, how you can like swipe on deals, right? So, like you pop it open every day, and what you're doing is

[1:03:15] swipe on them, right? This here, I'll show you really quick. This is this is a sneak peek to where my head is, cuz I always I try to think like 5 years ahead. Uh that's the point with House Hack. That's why we started acquiring

[1:03:28] real estate in 2022, cuz I'm like, "This is going to be a glorious piggy bank." Uh so, we started that that company in '22. bank for when there's there's a recession, cuz we'll have paid off real

[1:03:41] estate, right? Which I don't think is going to go through a 2008 because the the outstanding debt on real estate is actually relatively low right now. Uh in aggregate. Which creates a potential for a refinancing boom. It's the whole

[1:03:53] point. But anyway, so like a listing comes up like a more likely fixer-upper or or deal or whatever right here. Um uh you get this this what is this? notifications. Turn Can I turn this on do not disturb? This is

[1:04:08] stupid notification. Anyway, it's fine. Uh so, you know, you get this um Birch Street Simi Valley deal. The thing that's missing from this right now is good shot at this being a deal, but what's missing from that right now is

[1:04:22] the valuation estimate. So, what I really wanted to say is like if that's in an $850,000 neighborhood and our AI says it's going to cost $50,000 to fix it up, then then you're all in for 600 or

[1:04:34] $750,000 in an $850,000 neighborhood, the app will automatically sort this by $100,000 of equity that you can make. Okay? But, here's the 4D chess move. You ready for this? The 4D chess move is in addition

[1:04:49] to to ranking these deals across the entire country with the AI that we built, our training, our vision neural nets, you not only get to do this, watch this. Not only do you get to swipe to save the deal or reject the deal, right?

[1:05:05] Depending on on what your what your interest is in that deal. But then, you click on a deal and you swipe up and you instantly get a loan on the property. know, a regulatory barrier to instantaneous loans, but quick loan,

[1:05:21] right? So, we can literally build in lending on deals that we're identifying somebody forecloses, you know, goes for >> [laughter] >> You know? So, so like

[1:05:36] I'm sorry. I'm like nerding out over it, cuz I'm like, "This is so good. Like, I love this." Uh and uh and I'm just publicly sharing that enthusiasm and that excitement around the product. Uh so, and and the

[1:05:50] the intention. Uh this is not a solicitation. Read the offering circular before investing. Dear SEC, there's risk with every investment. February 6th. We had a little 2-week extension. Make sure if you click the

[1:06:05] offering circular. There's risk with every investment. You get 5% yield Invest with credit card, ACH, or wire. No fees. Now, where were we? We were at this article here.

[1:06:20] >> A week-long sell-off engulfing tech stocks and crypto showed no signs of slowing as weak jobs data exacerbated the rout concern uh over AI. Right. Uh

[1:06:36] like private credit fund. Don't think the banks are exposed to such risk. Yeah, no, but but you're wrong because the banks lend to the private credit And the private credit funds lend to the idiots.

[1:06:49] idiots. So, the banks have by proxy massive exposure, right? It's insane. How many of your deals are are from our AI? A lot, dude. Like, I mean, this last

[1:07:03] there it is. There's We want that." It's it's actually it's it's growing because we know we've been using the AI finder since since 20 '18. You know, we called it a neural net back then because nobody care

[1:07:17] nobody nobody called it AI in 2018. And then we we've since substantially improved it and and and added. I mean, we the some of the contracts we've you know, these are six-figure contracts that we've signed for for um you know,

[1:07:33] doing is is pretty incredible. It's kind of fun. But anyway, after earnings. Bitcoin took one of the biggest tumbles yet. Equities extended happened. So, what did they say? Clear example is the reaction from

[1:07:48] Google. We've got Amazon later today. Didn't somebody donate $2 yesterday saying that ARM and Google were going to fall? What did they know? Uh let's see here.

[1:08:02] Uh heavy selling started to become visible, blah blah blah. Prior While confined mostly to growth sectors, uh Thursday saw a broadening of the selling pressure. See, that's not good. That's not good.

[1:08:18] That's not good. Could that be a debt issue for um Meta are running out of cash. Uh Kevin, Ares and Blue Owl report uh today,

[1:08:30] stocks tanked. They've recovered a bit, still down. Really? He loves Sarah. I do love Sarah. I think Sarah's awesome. I have a crush. Uh okay, so let me see Ares. I I I have them all

[1:08:46] together here, don't I? Here. Uh oh wow, yeah, you're right. Blue Owl down 4 and 1/2%. Ares Business Development Corporation down 3%. Blue Owl Capital down 3%. Wow. And

[1:09:00] 3%. Blue Owl Capital down 3%. Wow. And then where's Ares? Yeah, man, this is private credit's getting destroyed. I hate to say it.

[1:09:15] getting destroyed. I hate to say it. I hate to say it. Not good. Oh, somebody was asking about Snap. Here's Snap for you. research, meaning research not funded by us at all, coming out from several

[1:09:28] Amsterdam, Australia, more recently in the United States, is showing again and again that Snapchat actually has a positive impact on people's well-being, friendships, which is different than other platforms like Instagram or

[1:09:42] we need to do is really raise the awareness of this this research. And and broad observations that were made in Australia that actually they wanted to continue to allow messaging platforms to

[1:09:55] people to connect. We asked the e-safety commissioner to consider us a messaging crap, look at the stock, man. Dude, Snap has been in the toilet forever. Aw, dude, it is the lowest it's been

[1:10:12] Aw, dude, it is the lowest it's been since 2018, dude. Oh my gosh. since 2018, dude. Oh my gosh. Aw.

[1:10:36] sell-off. 10 of 11 big industry groups are falling. are falling. About 2/3 of the index is red. Job openings fell. This week's data has been discouraging.

[1:10:52] Labor figures reiterate that the labor market is not firing on all cylinders. going to be too late. That's going to be the irony of it all. People are like, "See, Jerome Powell was too late late. He should have cut rates

[1:11:06] too late late. He should have cut rates like like Trump said." Ay ay ay. All [clears throat] right.

[1:11:24] Phillips 66 to cut 300 jobs as LA refinery shuts down. refinery shuts down. >> [clears throat] >> Bessen says up to Trump on suing Warsh over interest rates. What?

[1:11:40] announce it yet? Cuz they were thinking about doing a uh larger acquisition than what the company is, I guess Ryan Cohen was saying.

[1:11:54] It's probably HouseStock. You know, they're probably acquiring HouseStock.

[1:12:09] to the president if he wants to sue the nominee of the Reserve for not lowering rates. Are you kidding me? >> [snorts]

[1:12:25] Warsh would not be sued. Oh my gosh, why would would not be sued. Oh my gosh, why would he say that? That's up to the president.

[1:12:40] dinner in Washington that he would sue Warsh if he didn't get rates down.

[1:12:58] Bessen says it was a joke. I It's really hard to know, >> [clears throat] >> you know, if if you actually think uh

[1:13:18] All right. So, we looked at the doomers. Lagarde. Yeah, what's she talking about? AI coworkers.

[1:13:40] time to see further productivity gains from the AI related investment boom. Further productivity gains from the AI related investment boom.

[1:13:55] productivity. Yeah, we we know it takes time. That's the problem. It takes so time. That's the problem. It takes so much time for their data to show up. platform. What do we have here? Introducing new platform that's designed

[1:14:10] to help companies deploy AI agents more easily and easily. A new product called Frontier allows organizations to build and manage these AI tools so each agent access. Goal is to simplify rolling out agents.

[1:14:28] Yeah, it didn't really go anywhere. It'll be interesting.

[1:14:41] Oh, rounding out already. Look at this. Hard to keep it up. I mean, it's good Ooh, Apple even went red today. That's interesting. Peloton 24%. Alt 5 going to zero.

[1:14:55] Affirmed for. SanDisk went back up by about 3%. It was down like 15% to an end. But there is a lot of commentary about uh you know, the memory end. Uh and that'll U-turn very quickly. Wow,

[1:15:10] Ethereum. Look at that. 1965. How much is um what's his name down now? Tom Lee. Anyway, do you think Warsh is as hawkish as most people think? Well,

[1:15:24] I mean, it's hard to say. His history says he's a hawk. He but um and that's the problem. Like his history says he's a hawk. We need to open a Pokémon card. History says he's a hawk, but uh

[1:15:40] verbally now he's saying that he's not a hawk. Uh so, we got a one of the new packs here to This is the Pokémon Ascended Heroes pack. Y'all seem to like when I do this.

[1:15:55] me there at Real Me Kevin or at at Me Kevin, rather. I posted on Instagram Kevin, rather. I posted on Instagram this uh it was like 2 days ago that Jack out of uh he got an ascended uh blister pack, which is like a three pack. So,

[1:16:09] dude, the guy pulls a $158 card. Ungraded, $158. That was crazy. Uh so, see if I if I could do this

[1:16:21] Uh so, see if I if I could do this right. Let's see what we have today. So, I I really need to get like a hand cam for these, you know, just to distract from the market going down, right? So, we got

[1:16:34] artwork's actually not that bad. Like these are This is the one of the new releases that they have. You know, it's not bad. So, the artwork is actually kind of nice. Uh let's see here.

[1:16:49] Uh let's see here. Seat total bill. Whatever. of this. And the fact that Pokémon is still popular like from when I was a kid, I I don't understand. But um

[1:17:01] don't understand. But um the kids really like it, so. Card here. Uh just little cool artwork. Again, just Come on, Kevin. Get the focus. Get the focus.

[1:17:15] then usually it works. I can't get it to All right. Okay. We got a reverse holo, reverse holo, and nothing.

[1:17:29] Well, $15 for nothing. Actually, sometimes these cards are worth like two bucks. But it's nothing. But yeah, Jack got a $158

[1:17:41] and he uses this this app called um Rare Candy. There are a couple. There's but Rare Candy is really fast. Yesterday, Max pulled a $16 card. Um yeah, this is this is worthless. So, bad

[1:17:56] different time. Oh, well. Next. Back to the market. Back to the market we go. Only way kids can gamble. I mean, that is really what it is, right? It is

[1:18:10] it's it's gambling. Uh

[1:18:23] Kevin thoughts on investing on single family home in Las Vegas. Uh yeah. Well, let's go see the Redfin data center really quick. See what we're doing.

[1:18:36] what we're doing. Redfin data center. So, the market's a little softer than it was

[1:18:50] in 2025. So, percentage-wise you can see it over here. That's on new listings. Let me see sales prices though. That's on activity. Yeah, same thing here on sales price.

[1:19:02] You're a little bit below 2025 pricing for Vegas. Let me go look at like um Summerlin, for example. Uh I like Summerlin

[1:19:16] Uh they've got a lot of senior communities over here though, too. So, Summerlin South is fine, too. Uh let's just jump in Jeez, man, look at what's for sale over here. It's insane how much is for sale.

[1:19:29] let's just go to homes. four four to nine, somewhere in that range.

[1:19:43] It's a lot for sale. Wow. You have a lot of choice. Almost every single of choice. Almost every single neighborhood you have a lot of choice.

[1:19:55] I don't see this much inventory in a lot of California markets. concentration, right? So, uh what what's a what's the zip code out here? Let's go with 89

[1:20:11] 117. Oh my gosh, there's so many zip codes in here. 8 9117, slap that in. And then I'll just 81 Sorry, 89

[1:20:24] 147. I remember back in the day I was living I lived right next to what I thought was the coolest zip code ever, 333 33. I was in the 33324.

[1:20:41] actual zip code in correctly. So, uh oh, interesting. Yeah, I mean there there are some, but in Vegas you have to the the million-dollar market is getting a little tougher of a market.

[1:20:56] here, I should put them up on screen, but some of these are like Um but but anyway, yeah, Vegas market is interesting. Uh I haven't seen this much inventory in

[1:21:09] from uh when I went to visit there. So, I I'd watch that inventory. All right, what else? Uh so, then we've got Qs, the bounce continues. got Qs, the bounce continues. That's cool.

[1:21:28] our Alpha report, by the way, this morning. In our Alpha report this morning I said the momentum's over for Enphase, it's going down. Lifetime access. We got to change that to like

[1:21:43] you know, an annual subscription. So, what we'll probably start doing is and House Hack or the mekevin membership. So, okay, cool. Let's see if there's anything else. We did Economist, we did

[1:21:57] the FT, we did Bloomberg, we did the Information. Kevin Warsh channels Alan Greenspan productivity Did he just say something? Let's see here. What is this Fed news?

[1:22:16] of our lifetimes. Yeah, and I don't know about that. Productivity gains Alan Greenspan believes on anecdotes rather than data.

[1:22:30] anecdotes rather than esoteric data. Right, that's the problem with with data. He's going to care more about anecdotes. Now, he says that was a good thing. He's basically arguing it was good

[1:22:43] like Alan Greenspan. That's interesting. Which leading data would lead you cutting rates.

[1:22:55] sorry to hear that. Did all my flight training in Henderson. flight training in Henderson. >> [snorts] >> Henderson Airport Henderson traffic, Henderson traffic,

[1:23:09] >> [clears throat] >> When the tower's closed and you're still um Yeah, hey, you know, things are chilling out a little bit, recovering a little bit. Private credit numbers.

[1:23:23] the the earnings. What happened? Did Ares report earnings? Ares report earnings? Ares earnings short. Yeah, no kidding.

[1:23:43] SEC filings 10-Q Nope, they don't have a 10-Q yet. So, let's try press release press release fourth quarter earnings.

[1:23:58] closed what is this? Fourth quarter what is this? Fourth quarter full year origination activity. where are the where are the earnings? I want to see the earnings.

[1:24:12] want to see the earnings. Full year results. Here we go. earnings Let's see how private credit's doing.

[1:24:38] after-tax income, blah blah blah, exceptional year of milestones, crossed 600 billion in AUM. It's pretty impressive. Uh established new What is this? I guess I can't.

[1:24:50] 600 billion in AUM New record for fundraising, blah blah blah, robust investor demand across three channels. They still have robust demand. Could meet or exceed records from 2019.

[1:25:04] Uh sounding bullish yet stock down uh 8% sounding bullish yet stock down uh 8% you know, after these earnings.

[1:25:18] Yeah, Hood's down 45% in the last I know. Yeah, it Well, it's reverse momentum, right? It ran on momentum. It's still a 3.79 PEG, so it's still It's still a 3.79 PEG, so it's still expensive. You know, fair value for Hood

[1:25:30] 3. What is it now? 79, so 2.67 divided by 3.79. Uh I still need about a 30% discount on Hood to get to a fair value.

[1:25:43] happens, unfortunately, it just it could go even more, right? That'd be about $54. that's just using PEG and growth forecasts. So, people got really excited

[1:25:57] and and essentially the gambling that they're doing uh with um >> with the betting markets. A strong fundraising, 29% increase in

[1:26:09] AUM. I mean, this is incredible. They're still The fact that they're raising this much money is is pretty impressive. blah blah blah forward-looking statements, they didn't

[1:26:22] And no actual like details on the financials, huh? What's up with that? financials, huh? What's up with that? Yeah, I guess not.

[1:26:35] Ares stock. Here is a $40 billion company down 9% dude. Look at this wipeout. And this is we're getting to the worst levels we saw since liberation.

[1:26:49] levels we saw since liberation. Liberation prices pricings they were talking about software. Oh, probably software exposure, huh?

[1:27:04] Let's go find out. Blue Owl to software and people are just trying to escape that right now. So, Owl

[1:27:19] That's why I think it's funny like House Hack raises on its real estate valuation and there's zero in in the valuation we had last time from, you know, selling will be ridiculously profitable in the long term.

[1:27:34] Uh Where is this earnings call? investing now. That's why I threw another million dollars into I'm like, software valuation in it and the software is getting better by the day.

[1:27:48] call. Okay. All right, so I got the Blue Owl earnings call. Let's see what you've

[1:28:00] got. Blue Owl earnings call Blue Owl earnings call 2526 I'm not moving anywhere else in

[1:28:15] The only [clears throat] place I'd ever move is out of California. But there's no intention of moving out of California. within California. If I got to move, it ain't going to be in California.

[1:28:29] >> [laughter] >> Uh okay, so software. has emerged as a big theme, could you help us size up your exposure to debt and equity? Oh, yeah, here it is. Okay.

[1:28:44] Doesn't look like any red flags yet. Thank you very much. So, let's level Uh-oh. You know it's not good uh when when uh when when people go let's level set.

[1:28:58] Come to Texas. I'm not not going to Texas. But I'm not going to live in Texas. Uh tech uh lending has worked continues to work. And to get very direct answer, no, we

[1:29:14] don't have red flags. We don't even have yellow flags. We actually have large >> [laughter] >> Nobody believes them. Uh no one believes them. But remember these loans are on average 30% of the

[1:29:28] value of the enterprise value of an enterprise at the time of acquisition. Huge enterprise equity cushions. Yeah, but 30% is still a lot. Like for for a tech company they take on this sort of debt.

[1:29:42] Uh let's see here. Portfolio has been growing quarter to Portfolio has been growing quarter to quarter, revenue growth. Uh that's fourth quarter quarter over quarter. It's not a monolith and let's

[1:29:55] listen it's an opportunity because this happens markets get deeply disrupted They're trying to say all the right things here, right?

[1:30:15] software is one of the most ridiculous things he's heard. I agree with that. Software system of record where you integrated business processes of larger companies. Software is an enabler blah blah blah blah blah.

[1:30:35] carefully. We do not see meaningful exposure to those more susceptible exposure to those more susceptible areas. We see deep exposure where we attributes that I described.

[1:30:49] yes but just our favorites. Basically yes, we have lots of software exposure but only where we like it.

[1:31:01] exposure but only where we like it. >> [snorts] [clears throat] >> Uh BDC our credit fund has lowest software exposure of their other opportunities.

[1:31:26] themselves from a software company. They say it twice. Look at this. It's like blink twice if you're you know in trouble.

[1:31:39] Uh clearly clearly suggest uh they're pissed about uh stock suggest uh they're pissed about uh stock collapsing.

[1:31:59] to get our capital back and earn a very strong return. You got to love it when they talk about getting their capital back. section here on uh on software.

[1:32:25] Uh blah blah blah yeah. Wow. Well, thanks for pointing that out.

[1:32:37] hi, I'm in Texas but I don't think it's awesome. Oh. I'm sorry. No. I've I I tried to convince Lauren.

[1:33:02] Good luck out there. Just listen to some happy music, okay? Should we do one more Pokémon pack? One more Pokémon. Cuz this is such a red day we need need a distraction.

[1:33:29] Guess not. All right. All right. One more one more.

[1:34:05] Uh got to get the gambling done. All right, so if I can do this correctly uh I think I take that card and put it up front. Yeah, it's the energy card. All right.

[1:34:19] >> Let's get a good rip here. So whatever. Uh that's cute. This guy Wurmple his attack is bug bite. Classic.

[1:34:34] Raboot. I still understand why people put so much value on the Pokémon cards but because they do I will participate a little bit. I will participate a little bit. I've got a trainer. Ooh, a blondie.

[1:34:48] I've got a trainer. Ooh, a blondie. Look at the blondie. one. This one looks a little sussy.

[1:35:03] A little sussy there. Uh I'm not sure how I feel about that. Uh I'm not sure how I feel about that. All right. Uh Okay. And

[1:35:20] Uh it's actually a cool looking card. Uh it's pretty cool. Because it's so it's like purple through and through but but nothing big nothing Um spooky shot and phantasmal barrage.

[1:35:35] Phantasmal pack has been pretty good for Max and Jack actually. It's all right. Come back tomorrow for different luck. >> [laughter] >> All right, see y'all. Bye.