The Secret to Winning Bets Nobody Tells You

[00:01] Wages, everybody wants to win at betting, but the simple fact is very few people do.

[00:15] Well, typically people tend to focus on picking winners, useless, uh, following systems, uh, looking for tips, all of those sort of things. But the simple fact is really successful betting is all about one thing.

[00:30] You can truly understand what the betting odds are telling you and how to take advantage of that, then there's no reason why you can't profit in the long term. And that's exactly what I'm gonna show you in this video.

[00:50] forum here today in Leopardstown. Peter, what's, uh, the best advice that you have for a punter? Um, generally to get the best price that you can, and, uh, I think it

[01:03] Um, if you can't get the best price, then you'll ever make money. So try and get a good price whenever you have decided on your pick. If you went into a shop and paid 20 pound for something that was only worth

[01:19] You'd feel completely ripped off. But the curious thing is that on betting markets, people do this all of the time. I did a little bit of market research for you and went into my local town to do some

[01:34] No, I'm not a waitress shopper. However, I did go into Waitroses and I found some milky bar eggs, uh,

[01:46] So I thought if I go round the corner to another supermarket, um, I had a look in there and I also found some milky bar eggs for one pound. But I also found that there was a baby leaf salad in Tesco's that was

[02:04] Uh, but when I went back to Waitrose, it turned out that they were also doing So when you look at that, you're sort of thinking, well, which salad do I choose?

[02:16] special about the one in Waitroses, they're more or less the same products. You're sort of saying, which one of these, uh, fulfills what I need?

[02:31] Uh, how much am I willing to pay for it and what sort of price is out there? But the funny thing is when people bet, they very, very rarely do this. their bet hoping to win.

[02:43] understand exactly what those odds mean. So maths was not my favorite subject at school, and certainly within maths.

[02:55] So you can imagine my complete joy when I discovered that most And when you first look at fractional odds, they can look really confusing.

[03:09] However, once you start to understand fractional odds, they're not as confusing as they first appear, and in fact, they're key to sort of And you can use them to understand exactly what your true objective

[03:23] But it's important that you do understand them. So let's have a look at betting odds and understand exactly what they mean. As a payout ratio.

[03:37] And if we split those odds up, then what we're saying is that on one side Um, that is how much we are gonna bet in this particular market. And if we win, then the bookmaker will pay out six pound.

[03:51] So yeah, a fractional odds are a ratio of stake to payout. So we're looking at a market here on a betting exchange, and you can see that We'll talk about this in a second, but if I go in and hover the mouse over

[04:06] come up with the fractional odds. exchange, are effectively six to four. So if you go in there, click on two and a half, place a four pound bet.

[04:21] So can you see how that ratio works? So if you put eight pound in, we'd get 12 pound back. So everything that you see, uh, when you're betting is

[04:38] And it's the same on a betting exchange. So a lot of betting odds in the UK are quoted at Fractional Odds, but you get quoted in decimal odds.

[04:53] Uh, but the concept with Decimal Odds is there are many more of them. would get with Fractional Odds. that they don't use either of those.

[05:07] They use their own method of quoting you betting odds. However, each one of these different methods actually represents your So it's important regardless of wherever you are, placing a bet on

[05:20] whatever platform you are, that we actually understand exactly what So rather than an explaining in depth in a video, I've actually created a free tool for you to use where you can actually go in, type in the odds, and then you will

[05:34] and find out precisely what they mean. looking at when we're looking at any of those odds in any of those particular

[05:46] formats that you may be quoted. If you scroll past the text, you can see the box where you would enter all

[05:58] of the information that is required and you can select from a different that makes your life a lot easier. can't see, um, that are for a football match that is taking place next

[06:13] Uh, for the home team, they want 13 to five for the draw, and they want 19 to 24. They're just random numbers.

[06:26] If we click on convert odds, uh, what this tool will do is it will actually, uh, convert those fraction odds into decimal the sort of things other formats that you may see.

[06:39] it converts it to a percentage. So the odds of 27 to 10 are basically saying that the sports book thinks that Um, the away team has a 51% chance of winning at 19 to 20, and at three,

[06:57] uh, 13 to five, uh, there's a 27% chance of this match ending in a draw. So we've taken those fractional odds and converted them into something useful. able to make money from betting.

[07:12] Because what you are being able to see there is the chance that the chance of you winning a bet. and they're playing a team at the top of the league in football.

[07:27] Then you would sort of, uh, expect that that team has a small chance of winning. you're sort of thinking, okay, I could double my money if this team wins. But from a true value perspective, you're sort of saying, hold on a second here.

[07:42] If I convert those into a probability, he's saying that this team at the bottom of the football league has a 50% chance of beating the team at the top, I'm just not going to have that.

[07:55] But however, if they offered you a fraction of odds of nine to one, in you're sort of thinking, well, that's about a 10% chance and therefore Um, but if he sort of said, oh, I'll give you odds of 20 to one, then you're

[08:12] So it's important that you have this judgment on exactly. What the odds mean, uh, how they convert to probability. You're you're trying to go into that store, you're trying to buy

[08:25] that two pound salad for 50 p is effectively what we're talking about. I thought I'd be talking about salads, uh, when I was talking about betting, but. You're just trying to get a better price.

[08:38] You want to get the best price, but you also only ever want to bet when And the best way of understanding if the odds are in your favor is to understand the probabilities that underlie each of those odds.

[08:52] You could be forgiven for thinking that this is a coin toss. But there are different skill levels and therefore there are

[09:04] The favorite is priced at two to five and the outsider is priced at seven to four. Well, for the outsider, they would have odds of 36.4% and the

[09:16] And if you add those together, you will see that they end up equaling 107.8, which seems a little unfair. For something that only has a hundred percent chance of actually occurring.

[09:30] Um, they're charging you 108% roughly for something that only has You're buying a salad for a pound and eight pence instead of a pound. However, if you look at a betting exchange, then you can see that the

[09:45] odds that are supplied are a little bit different and necessarily they add up to a different amount as well, which is much more competitive Of profiting from this brace.

[10:02] somewhere, um, and just get better odds. So you have to go out and you have to hunt for these opportunities. occur much more frequently because you can do clever things like asking

[10:17] for a price or you can, uh, look for those little opportunities where. I could go on for hours about all of the different examples I've got over the many years, but let me just give you and frame a couple of examples for you.

[10:31] It was a group race, very high quality horses that were well raced and well And yet, right as we approached the start of the race, you could actually

[10:44] I couldn't see any rational explanation for this. in those last few minutes, and yet the price drifted, um, and that

[10:56] Uh, it moved from one price to another. That move was represented as a certain percentage change in its chance of winning that particular race, and yet nothing had happened.

[11:09] So we definitely captured value on that particular occasion. Uh, but nonetheless, that's a clear demonstration of where the price goes Now there was also, um, a race that I was looking at, which actually occurred on

[11:24] Uh, where the market just went completely bonkers. Uh, the price looked pretty stable for a short period of time, and then it, the price just flew out for absolutely no reason whatsoever, and

[11:37] The market just went mad for a, for a second. Are you telling me that on either end of that massive price I don't believe you.

[11:51] changes the odds fairly dramatically If there's a major exclusion from that expected, and that creates value as well, because it takes a while for the market

[12:05] You can start going around all of those bookmakers or even on the that has to take place in price. You have to watch the market like a hawk to take advantage of that.

[12:21] But there are other situations that allow you to get a bit of a, a longer lead And one of those is when you're watching a match midweek and a key player gets injured, that will definitely, definitely affect the odds of the match

[12:36] Um, but it does take ages for the bookmakers to adjust their prices. thing that you should do is fire up your laptop, look on your phone, and

[12:48] That is a key. Essentially, what I'm looking for is a slightly better price. And when I do get a better price, it doesn't necessarily mean that I'm

[13:03] gonna win, but over the long term, it all balances out and I end up, uh, making money simply because I'm picking off all of those key prices. Um, this is the result of that particular strategy.

[13:16] Just trying to pick off prices that I think are potentially value Um, but over the long term, that value comes out of the mix.

[13:29] This is over many thousands of races. Um, so if anybody is doubting whether this actually can work or not.

[13:41] You just need to be a little bit cleverer and you need to really, But you also need to make a judgment on whether you think those probabilities think the true price should be.

[13:57] is at a good price or not. You look at something and you still think, well, I'm not paying that for that. think, well, that's a good deal and I could have that tea tonight.

[14:12] And it's pretty much the same in betting. What those odds mean, um, and whether it's good value or not, because if

[14:24] the bookmaker is asking for silly odds and the chance of something occurring is way above what it should do, then you just shouldn't bet on it. Then obviously that makes a clear case for being able to place a bet.

[14:38] yourself forward and get a better price. the market like a hawk and jumping on those opportunities is a great

[14:50] And if you do that, you will be profitable in the long term.