Player Prop Betting Strategies — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:01] money on player props because they're betting blind. They're picking props performances, or what their favorite analyst is saying on ESPN. But what if I strategies that give you a mathematical edge when betting on player props?

[00:16] inefficiencies and sharp money movement to identify recreational books are wrong. I've been using these two methods to consistently find positive expected value on player props, making over $6,000 this year. And in this video, I'm

[00:30] going to break down both strategies step by step using real examples from OddsJam Software. The first strategy is a cross market. And when you spot this setup, you want to bet on the recreational book every single time. More times than not,

[00:42] the wreck [music] book is incorrect. So on this play with Nicole Yokic over under 28 1/2 points, when you're seeing odds from sharp books like Pinnacle, Bookmaker, or even Fandal, you could see over here that Pinnacle has the over 28

[00:56] 1/2 points at minus 124 odds. Well, no. VIG has the under at plus 126 odds. Anytime that the plus odds number is larger than the minus odds number, you can day trade these books. This is a natural arbitrage play. The market is

[01:10] crossed and that means one book is definitely wrong. And in this spot, I would go over and bet the under on no vig every time. The reason this works is simple. Pinnacle is one of the most accurate and sharpest sports books in

[01:23] lines because they take the highest limits and attract the smartest money. When a recreational books line crosses pinnacle, it's a clear signal that there's value outside of a cross market. Using the low holds tool and finding 0%

[01:37] holds is another fantastic strategy where you can bet $100 on Pinnacle plus 130 odds and $130 on Hard Rock at minus130 odds and you're not going to win or lose any money. This is a 0%

[01:52] books make money off customers. So finding plays that have a very low hold or in this case coming over to the low holds tool and typing in Pinnacle. Any plays that have a 0% hold, you want to place the wager on the wreck book every

[02:06] single time. But crossed markets and low holds are just the beginning. The second strategy that's even more powerful is getting signals from where the sharpest money is moving. The second strategy focuses on sharp line movement. And this

[02:19] is the most powerful signal for successful player prop betting. Over here on the OddsGam Plus EV tool, we're looking at Sydney Crosby's over 0.5 assists. When we click specifically into Pinnacle, you can see that Pinnacle is

[02:33] the gray line here. And Pinnacle has moved significantly in their price. Their odds have dropped off of a cliff from 19 hours ago at + 119 odds to

[02:45] currently at minus 112 odds. This is a significant movement from a sharp sports book over the last couple of hours. You can see books like Bet MGM, The Score, and Hard Rock all have the same exact line in odds. Nothing has changed. When

[03:02] a Sharp Sports Book's odds are moving in one specific direction, it's because of information and money, and we want to bet the recreational books every single time. So, when I'm perusing the positive expected value tool, let's go through an

[03:16] example of a play that I would stay away from. Jonas Valenunis under 8 and a half points. When I click into Pinnacle's box here on the under, you can see that Pinnacle and the score just have two different projections on this play. I

[03:29] don't really have a great read on if Pinnacle is moving one way or the other. These are just two books that have two different projections. Now, Pinnacle's accurate more times than not, and their odds would be correct. But again,

[03:41] without any specific line movement, I don't have as much confidence betting this play compared to the Crosby play. When I click on my filters button here, guys, here's my setup using Pinnacle as my sharp book in the worst case dvig

[03:53] method. My odds range is between a minus 150 to + 140. Slightly better or worse than a flip of a coin. I don't go out to the plus - 250 odds range. I like to also come over here and look at FanDuel as well. And guys, if you want to try

[04:09] OddsJam 1 week for free and then save 35% off your first month after the It'll be linked in the description below. So, here's an example using FanDuel as my sharp when I'm looking at an NBA player prop. Pinnacle doesn't

[04:22] offer the market for player rebounds and assists, but FanDuel does. So, a couple things that provide me immense amount of confidence in this play. Number one, we talked about the low hold strategy earlier. Well, FanDuel has the over at

[04:34] minus 110 for Jeremy Grant. Hard Rock has the under at + 110. Again, we bet 110 on FanDuel on the over, $100 on Hard Rock on the under. This is a 0% low hold. So, that checks off my first box. Next, when we click into the under 7

[04:49] 1/2, look at FanDuel. They're the red line. Within the last 45 minutes, line. Within the last 45 minutes, FanDuel went from + 102 to -125. That is a massive drop in price on FanDuel. So again, we would want to bet

[05:05] the Wreck Book Hard Rock. Out of all the Wreck books, guys, in my opinion, for NBA player prop betting specifically, FanDuel is one of, if not the sharpest books out there. Using this line movement from FanDuel makes this a very

[05:18] simple choice to go make this bet over at Hard Rock. Now, you might be wondering, why do these strategies work so well specifically for player props? Player props have significantly less liquidity than mainline markets. If I

[05:31] pull up Baker Mayfield over on FanDuel and put down a very large number, you can see the max wager here is $795 for him to throw for 225 passing yards or more. And this is at minus 106 odds. So this is right in that flip of a coin

[05:45] type of range. If I look to bet the over or the under, the over 43 and a half at - 105, roughly the same price as Baker Mayfield. Spreads, money lines, and take more money on these types of markets. $21,000 to be exact over at

[06:01] FanDuel compared to $800 on Baker Mayfield's player prop. This lower liquidity in player props means lines move more dramatically when sharp money hits. The inefficiencies last longer with player props, which gives you time

[06:14] to capitalize on these plays. The combination of a cross market, low hold, or sharp line movement gives us the most confidence when looking to place bets on approach is when you're on the positive EV tool, make sure that you check out

[06:28] the line movement from FanDuel, Bookmaker, or Pinnacle on every single prop. And when you see a line like this where FanDuel's dropped significantly in the 60 minutes or less, this will give you supreme confidence to bet these

[06:42] types of plays. If you find plays like we saw earlier where one book's priced here and the other's here, that would be a play that I would tend to avoid. I want to see market signals from Sharp Books when placing my bets. And if

[06:55] you use your web browser on your phone when using Osam software so that you can You can also go over to Oz Jam's arbitrage tool and any arbitrage plays

[07:07] that you see to FanDuel or Pinnacle, bet the recreational book on that side. You'll find a lot of success there as well. And speaking of arbitrage betting, if you're pairing this sharp betting strategy with arbitrage, this is the

[07:20] path to long-term profitable success. Click this video on the screen where I break down arbitrage betting, all the frequently asked questions, the complete setup that you need to know to start crushing the sports books and making

[07:32] crushing the sports books and making consistent profits.