Betting Edge Math — Full Breakdown & Transcript

[00:01] think a team is going to win, you're already making the same mistake as 95% make their picks off of three things. They're watching games, they're studying stats, or they're simply going off of gut feeling. And don't get me wrong, it

[00:16] can be fun to dive into the numbers, research matchups, and build a case for why a bet is a good bet. And it can also be fun to sit down and bet on your team genuinely believe they're going to win. But here's the issue. Most bettors think

[00:30] sports knowledge is what creates profit. And in reality, sports knowledge rarely that you're researching to make your picks are already known by the sports companies with entire trading teams, sophisticated models, and access to more

[00:46] information than the average better can ever consume. So, the next time you because you found out that a batter is hitting 500 against the starting pitcher in the last five head-to-head matchups, just remember the sports books already

[00:59] know that. And more importantly, they've already priced that information into the line. That's why simply knowing ball isn't enough. The bettors who win long-term aren't necessarily the ones who know the most about sports. They're

[01:11] the ones who consistently find value. And in this video, I'm going to show you how to always bet with an edge and why that is the single biggest difference amongst recreational bettors and sharp, profitable sports bettors. So, let's

[01:23] start with a simple question. What does betting with an edge actually mean? One of the easiest ways to understand that is through a coin flip. Imagine I offer you a bet. If the coin lands on heads, you win $100. If the coin lands on

[01:35] tails, you win $100. That's a completely fair bet because both outcomes will happen 50% of the time. Now, imagine I hand you a special coin that lands on heads 60% of the time, and the payout hasn't changed. You still win $100 if it

[01:49] lands on heads, you still win $100 if it lands on tails. The only thing that's changed is the probability. So, would you start to bet heads? Of course, you would. You'd make that bet over and over again because even though you'll still

[02:02] lose at times, you know you're going to come out on top long term. That's what having an edge looks like. And believe it or not, sports betting works the exact same way. The biggest mistake most bettors make is they focus entirely on

[02:14] predicting winners. When instead they should be finding situations where the odds are in their favor. One of the best examples of an edge in sports betting is consensus. In other words, you're getting better odds than what the true

[02:27] suggesting. This concept is called positive expected value or plus EV. All plus EV means in sports betting is that the odds you're getting are better than the actual likelihood of the outcome occurring. Simply put, you're making a

[02:41] bet that would be profitable if you were to place this hundreds of times. Now, that doesn't mean that every plus EV bet is going to be a winner. Far from it. Just like the coin flip analogy, even if you're going to land on heads 60% of the

[02:53] bets. But if you consistently put yourself in situations where the probability is in your favor, the math will win long term. And that right there is the entire foundation of profitable sports betting.

[03:06] you exactly what getting an edge and what a positive expected value actually we're going to do is we're going to head over to their positive EV tool. This is one of the best market scanners out there that's going to highlight where

[03:20] sportsbooks you're betting with. So, here we are on the OddsJam positive EV sportsbooks that I have access to. What you're going to want to do when you first get on OddsJam is put in your individual sportsbooks so that the

[03:34] can find value. And now, let's take a look at some of these examples where we are gaining an edge against the market and therefore making profitable bets top here, we have Chelsea Gray in the WNBA to go over two and a half made

[03:49] threes. Now, this would be a profitable bet over on FanDuel where we're getting plus 178 odds. And when we click into this bet, we can see exactly why this is a profitable bet. Now here we are, FanDuel plus 178 that's giving us a 7.99

[04:04] EV percentage. That's a very high positive EV play for us and when we books, we can see here that we're getting the over two and a half at plus 178 odds when Kalshi has it plus 158, No Vig a very sharp book plus 144,

[04:19] DraftKings plus 131, MGM 145, Caesars 135. Needless to say, if you take this on any other sports book compared to FanDuel, you are losing value. So FanDuel is setting this line at a price that is much more profitable for us to

[04:34] take compared to taking it on any other sports book. Again, it doesn't mean that this play is guaranteed to cash. That's not a thing in sports betting, but it does mean that the math is in our favor and if we were to bet this hundreds of

[04:46] times, we are expected to make a 7.99 prop. As you can see if you scroll through, there are a ton of bets that you can take. Let's take a look at this one over on BetMGM, Tyler Callahan under

[05:00] 0.5 singles. So him did not get a single in his game. This is a 4.92% hundreds and thousands of bets, we can expect a 4.92% return by taking this prop. And when we

[05:14] take a look at why this has expected value, as we can see here, minus 125 over on MGM if we take a look at the rest of the market, DraftKings all the rest of the market, DraftKings all the way up at minus 163, Caesars minus 159.

[05:26] All these other books anywhere from the minus 140s to minus 180s is what we're seeing and we can lock this in on MGM at minus 125. Now once again, doesn't guarantee that this play is going to hit, but we know we're significantly

[05:40] beating the consensus odds amongst all sports books on this prop which tells us that BetMGM has essentially set this line incorrectly. They are not up to date with where the market prices Tyler Callahan to go under half a single, and

[05:54] we as a sports better can take advantage of that. Now, I wish I had some secret showed you over at Odds Jam, but the truth is it really is that simple. And out Odds Jam, the software that I use to find all my positive EV bets, use promo

[06:09] code takes for a 7-day free trial and 35% off your first month. You see, finding profitable bets isn't difficult. The problem is the majority of sports bettors still have zero idea what positive expected value is. They're

[06:22] spending hours researching teams, researching players, watching injury through Twitter, and listening to handicappers, all while ignoring the one thing that actually determines whether they will win or lose long-term, and

[06:35] that's positive expected value. Once you understand positive expected value, you've successfully made the biggest mindset shift you will ever need to make as a sports better. You have to stop asking yourself if you think this bet is

[06:47] going to win, and start asking, "Am I getting the right price on this bet? Am I getting profitable odds long-term?" Remember, a bad bet can win and a good bet can lose. But over hundreds and thousands of wagers, the bettors who are

[07:00] consistently getting positive expected value are the ones who win long-term. And that's exactly why sharp bettors don't obsess over individual results. They don't panic after one losing night. They don't think they're a genius after

[07:12] sports betting is a long-term game, and their job isn't to predict each bet correctly. Their job is to consistently put themselves in positions where the math is in their favor. Think back to the coin flip example. If you really did

[07:25] have a coin that landed on heads 60% of the time, would you ever stop betting heads? Of course not. You would keep flipping that coin because you know you have an edge. Sports betting is no different. The goal is not to win every

[07:38] that are profitable over time. And that's exactly why I use the positive EV tool on OddsJam every single day. It takes the guesswork out of betting and matters. Finding value, beating the

[07:51] edge. So, if you take one thing away from this video, let it be this. The biggest shift in sports betting happens when you realize you're not betting teams or players, you're betting prices. And when you consistently bet good

[08:04] prices, the results will eventually take care of themselves.